Prime Minister Gen. Michel Aoun to An-Nahar:
A regional war is not inevitable.
Other dictatorships will go down with the Iraqi regime.
From Hyam Qusayfi ­ An-Nahar: 18.1.03

Imminent bankruptcy, regional upheavals, the fall of other dictatorships after a change in the Iraqi regime, the end of Hezbollahıs military wing without a trade-off.
These are General Michel Aounıs headlines after a two-month absence from the media and the political arena.
Aoun rejects to be labeled a pessimist, since in his opinion he is merely diagnosing the ills of Lebanon and the regional developments. Aoun, who maintains ongoing discussions with European and American contacts, does not see the war as inevitable in the region.

The following are comments he made to An-Nahar in a telephone interview.

A ­ There are two reasons for this. One has to do with us, and the other pertains to the media. When there is a large number of newspapers, media channels, and TV stations that speak about us and prosecute us, such as "Al-Mostaqbal" and "NTV", without any journalist or reporter asking our opinion, we can only conclude that they are boycotting us. Which is why we have developed our communications channels and have modernized our Internet web site. We also refrained from publishing our statements through the press because the press does not really publish, except the An-Nahar even though it occasionally truncates our statements which takes them out of the broader context in which they are intended. You may have your reasons for doing this, since the other newspapers are subjected to censorship, and TV stations are categorically forbidden from dealing with us. I consider the media as having been subjugated, and so I cannot communicate with the Lebanese people through them. Given all this, what can I tell the Lebanese people?
Do I tell them that the middle class has been abolished? This I told them when PM Hariri initiated his economic policy program. Since 1995 I have been warning of an economic collapse and that we are reaching a flash point in the Middle East, and their answer was that we are betting on the war option.
We tried every reasonable argument to convince the Lebanese people and raise the awareness of the Lebanese authorities, and the Syrians too, but all we got back were insults because of our future outlook on events. I believe they do not deserve this vision, and so we will keep it to ourselves as we continue to monitor events.

Q ­ In addition to the FPM Internet web site, you also tried to establish a radio station for the FPM. What is the status of the latter project?

A ­ There are specific technical issues that need to be addressed in order to insure that a clear message reaches the Lebanese people. We should be back on the air within a month.

Q ­ It was reported that you are cooperating with others to launch a television program. How far along is that project?

A ­ We are trying to complete one project before embarking on the next one. Today we are focused on the radio project before we concern ourselves with a television project.

Q ­ You mentioned the reasons for your distance or absence from the Lebanese political scene. But isnıt that distance a way for the FPM to avoid being targeted during this critical phase?

A ­ Our actions are always within the boundaries of the law, and so we do not fear being targeted. We are demanding our rights within the confines of our freedom of speech. Unfortunately, the state behaves with us as if we were a gang because it has abridged the freedom of speech and eliminated it from its discourse and from the constitution. The authorities commit violations at all levels of government, and attacks even occur within the Cabinet, so there is nothing to prevent them from attacking us. The regime was not once a cover for us and we are used to its attacks, but none of this will prevent us from speaking up. What do I tell the Lebanese people? We predicted that Israel would withdraw one and a half years before it did. They said that we were advertising for Israel. So they either attack us directly, or they accuse us of collusion with others. The Critical Point

Q ­ This is an open media forum for you. How do you see the situation in the region, given your contacts and discussions in the United States and Europe?

Q ­ Are you saying that war is inevitable?

A ­ No, I wonıt say it is inevitable until it actually starts. Especially in US policy, war does not happen without a reason. The Americans want specific objectives. If they achieve these objectives, the Americans will stop the war even 5 minutes before orders go out to jet fighters to initiate their bombing raids. That is how they think and make policy. The objectives of the Americans are not always made public, as some would have you believe. They alone know what they want from the Middle East, and if they get that without a war, they will not start a war.

Q ­ Are you at all concerned about the impact of a regional war on Lebanon and its inability to absorb the impending changes?

A ­ The issue is that the Lebanese depend on the Syrians, in spite of the latterıs faults, to resolve their question. They just donıt understand that the Syrians will have to deal with the regional changes, which in turn will have repercussions on Lebanon. The state is non-existent and is unable to contain people because the leaders have no popular base whatsoever they can rely on. The authorities have starved their people and rule them with forces of repression. Without the backing of the Syrians, these forces do not have the backbone to repress people. So if the Syrian presence is suddenly dismantled, and absent any agreement among the Lebanese for a substitute, there is bound to be a number of disturbances.

Q ­ In what areas? Security for example?

A ­ I do not know what each side is planning. Anyone has the ability to interfere in Lebanon so long as there is no primary commitment or identification with the country, as long as the Speaker is Syrian, and the head of the Socialist Party says he is Syrian, and someone else says he is Iranian, or American, or French. Right now, the identity of Lebanon has been erased from the minds of people, and each chieftain is able to activate his own group. The fundamental problem is that there is no strong central authority and no genuine affiliation with Lebanon. We have only tribes. They donıt listen to what we have been telling them: As long as the situation is in the status quo, you have a hold on power. But any modification to the status quo in the Middle East will quickly unravel the situation in Lebanon.

Q ­By raising of the issue of the central authority, could you be pushing the regime to harden its position in the area of security under the pretext of protecting Lebanon?

A ­ And could the regime protect itself from its own security forces? Does it really control the security forces? Isnıt the military also hungry and impoverished, and its honor and dignity trampled? The security forces are from the ranks of the people too, and each one of them has family and relatives who suffer like the rest of the Lebanese people. The security forces are the most affected by the situation. The situation is now deliberately frozen because there is no activity in the region, and a small band of rulers can cause panic and fear. But when change comes, all bets will be off.

Q ­ Some are concerned about a convergence of fundamentalist movements into Lebanon.

A ­ This is the only thing that I am not worried about. Fundamentalism is being challenged and confronted globally, and it can barely protect itself.

Q ­ So what worries you therefore about the Lebanese situation?

A ­ Internal chaos. People are lost and feel defeated, and there is no role model around which to gather. People have become moving skeletons, period. Hezbollah will cease to exist.

Q ­ There is talk about a regional deal of which Hezbollah will pay the price.

A ­ There wonıt be any deal over Hezbollah, because a decision has been made to end the military wing of Hezbollah without trade-offs. It will cease to exist without any deal.

Q ­ And is that so easy to do? Can Syria and Iran agree on this matter?

A ­ We are now talking about the regional situation which is on the verge of a complete change. Change wonıt happen in Iraq without it happening also in the countries surrounding Iraq. The extent of change is bigger than anyone imagines it to be, but we do not know how long it will take. I can ascertain that the entire region is headed towards inevitable change, but I cannot surmise on its timeline.

Q ­ You recently held a series of contacts in Europe. Is there a European role for a solution in Lebanon and the region?

A ­ Europe is helping but has no solutions to offer. Europe is limited to merely enabling solutions as long as it needs American help to achieve its own security. For this reason, Europe will not sponsor any solution though it can certainly help. We have widened the range of our activities in order to clarify our cause. But the essential political work resides in the United States.

Q ­ You had contacts and discussions in America, but the latest subject of interest to you ­ the Syria Accountability Act ­ is not in the headlines anymore. What is the basis for your current discussions?

A ­ The Americans have an implementation priority placed on the Iraq issue. The American presidentıs policy is not to deal with two issues at the same time, and he is currently mapping the timetable. Which is why he asked Israel to freeze its activities in the region, and no one can impose on him a timetable for any issue.

Q ­ So after Iraq, the US president will focus on Syria and Lebanon?

A ­ If there is change in Iraq and a democratic system is set up there, do you think that the Americans will allow the dictatorial regimes of the region to remain in place and attack them and incite against them? Some issues need explaining, but some are no-brainers.

Q ­ The view from Lebanon is different. The tendency is to stabilize things and not change them, either in respect to the government or to what is being said about an extension or a renewal (of the current presidentıs term).

A ­ Look, people previously said that the Earth was stationary and that the sun revolved around it, and not the other way around. The Lebanese today believe, thanks to self-censorship and ideology, that Damascus is stationary at the center and the world revolves around it.

Q ­ So you donıt subscribe to a renewal of the presidentıs term?

A ­ If the current republic remains the same, I extend my congratulations to him (Pres. Emile Lahoud). With him at the helm, Lebanon will disappear.

Q ­ Do you foresee that extent of change?

A ­ Economically and politically. Do we know the state of the banks and the results of Paris II? Can they tell us what effective help has reached Lebanon? They say that the Spring of Lebanon is coming. But 13 years later, it is not here yet. Monetary promises remain what they are: promises! The Lebanese people have yet to see any financial relief.

Q ­ Yours is a pretty bleak view of the situation?

A ­ I examine the patient, and if I diagnose cancer do I tell the patient that everything is all right? No, I recommend treatment.

Q ­ And what is the treatment for Lebanon?

A ­ I said previously that Lebanon was on the verge of bankruptcy, and no one believed this. The solution is to establish trust between the rulers and the people. How can anyone invest their money in Lebanon in the absence of a decision that guarantees security and freedom? Where are the productive projects that they keep talking about? Is it reasonable to trust the same person who bankrupted the country in the first place to now rescue it? Is it even conceivable that the same group remains at the helm? The opposition and the ruling party alternate in government in all countries except in Lebanon. Very influential Lebanese work in the worldıs most important financial institutions, but these people do not work in Lebanon because they ran away from the gangs who run the country, and just canıt be part of these gangs who have taken away peopleıs rights.