Hezbollah's looming Coup Scenario
By: Elias Bejjani*

September 23/2010
 
The fundamental elite leadership of the pariah terrorist organization Hezbollah is becoming more aggressive, arrogant, and wicked.  This is evident in the increasingly demeaning, humiliating and boastful manner with which they are dealing with both the Lebanese government and people. They are not bridling their overt hostile rhetoric or attitudes against all those Lebanese who oppose the Iranian-Syrian scheme to topple the country's democratic government, and erect in its place a regime that replicates Iran’s dictatorship of the mullahs. Their Mafioso tactics and criminal acts are increasing by the hour as well as their defiance to the state's constitutional authorities, and more importantly its regional and international commitments.

Hezbollah is putting enormous pressure on the Lebanese government and its political adversaries to kill the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) that is designated by the UN to investigate the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's former PM, Rafiq Hariri, along with his escorts. Hezbollah believes that the tribunal will soon indict prominent members of its leadership with the crime.  Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has vowed not to abide by its rulings, tagging the tribunal as an Israeli-American conspiracy and a tool of treason against Lebanon. He has alleged that it was set up and fabricated through false witnesses to corner his "resistance" militia in a bid to dismantle and disarm it.  Along with these provocative stances, the Iranian-backed militia's logistical preparations in the capital Beirut, Mount Lebanon, Bekka Valley, Southern Lebanon and other regions foretell a looming coup on the horizon to topple the government. 

Last week, several local and regional reports have addressed this devastating coup threat giving many details. On the 20th of September 2010, the Kuwait AlWatan published a detailed report on the Hezbollah coup.  The report stated that Hezbollah's storming of the Beirut International Airport on September 19th 2010 to prevent the arrest of former General Security Department Chief Maj. Gen. Jamil Sayyed was a show of power. It makes clear that this brazen maneuver indicates an imminent coup is on the horizon should the Lebanese government fail to torpedo the STL.  It is worth mentioning that Hezbollah's gunmen and high ranking leaders escorted Sayyed from the Beirut Airport Runway in a show of power described by observers as an invasion of the facility.  

The report went into further details stating that vehicles loaded with Hezbollah gunmen welcomed Sayyed at the Beirut International Airport tarmac and took him to the VIP lounge without a permit from the foreign ministry. During his press conference at the lounge, Sayyed launched a vehement attack against Prime Minister Saad Hariri, State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza, Police Chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi and Detlev Mehlis, former head of the U.N. investigation into the assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri. After this press conference, the head of Hezbollah's Security and Liaison Committee, Wafiq Safa, and his bodyguards were inside one of the vehicles which escorted Sayyed to his home.  

According to the report, Hezbollah's recent aggressive rhetoric and military movement have been sending a clear message to all those concerned in both Lebanon and abroad. The message is that once the tribunal's indictment is issued against Hezbollah’s leadership the group's armed militia will be unleashed to take control of the state's institutions, and destroy media facilities owned by their adversaries in a replication of the notorious invasion of West Sunni Beirut on May 07 of 2010.  The report’s sources also revealed that the Hezbollah's coup will be initiated by the resignation of its ministers from the Hariri government in a bid to instigate a major political and national crisis. This will be followed by an invasion of the entire country in an arrangement similar to that forced by Hamas in Gaza.  

The source added that Hezbollah and its pro Syrian and pro Iranian allies have set up a progressive invasion plane to achieve this objective. It includes the following scenario:

They will initiate a rapid invasion of the Sunni Western Beirut and gain control over all roads from Beirut to the south throughout Chouf coast, AlKaroub region, and Sidon. They will not face any resistance with this part of the invasion because Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is expected to take a neutral stance. In case any resistance brakes at the "AlNaeme" Sunni Coastal town, Hezbollah has assigned its Sunni allies in Sidon City like Islamist Sheikh Maher Hammoud and the Nasserite Popular Organization led by Osama Saad to deal with it. 

In regards to the Christian regions, Hezbollah will adopt a different strategy due to the fact that even if they succeed in invading these regions they won't be able to remain there for long. Instead, they will invade and then withdraw after the deployment of the Lebanese army troops while holding on to only certain important hotbeds of resistance, notably in AlMetn and Al Fanar areas. Meanwhile, the group's heavy military presence in the Jubail (Byblos) Shiite villages will not face any major obstacles. This dominance will give Hezbollah an opportunity to secure a bridge through which it can control the coastal highway linking the entire Northern Lebanon with Beirut at the Jubail city crossroads.

 After Hezbollah secure this key area of transportation it will have control of all roads stretching from the high mountains down to the northern Bekka Valley and Baalbek city. Hezbollah is also counting on General Michel Aoun's military aid in the Christian regions. Aoun's role is to contain and abort by force any resistance from the Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges Parties. According to Hezbollah's scheme, the Lebanese army will deploy in the Christian regions after the withdrawal of its militia. The report further alleges that the army will give Hezbollah and its allies full freedom of movement in these regions. 

Hezbollah will work on dismantling the Future Sunni Movement headed By P.M, Saad Al Hariri in western Sunni Beirut suburbs and Al Tarek Al Jdedi neighborhood, while in the north the group's focus will be on Alaweet and some Tripoli suburbs. A number of fundamental Sunni militias that Hezbollah has trained and armed, such as "The Islamic Tawheed Front" and "The Islamic Action Front", will be assigned to take control of Tripoli city.  In the Bekka Valley Hezbollah will endeavour to see that Sunni towns residents such as Taalabaya and Saad Nile will not block the roads between northern and southern Bekaa. They will try with minimal losses to control the entire Bekka Valley midst from Majdal Anjar to Chtoura, Qeb Elias, and Saad Naeil.

In conclusion, based on Lebanon's deeply rooted history of resistance, mountainous geography, and mosaic-like demography, Hezbollah's plan for a coup as delineated by the report is doomed to fail.  Meanwhile, the report did not address any deterrence role that the Lebanese Army might provide. It is not likely that the free world, moderate Arab countries and Israel will allow Iranian-backed Hezbollah to topple Lebanon’s democratic government and replace it with an Islamist republic. We strongly believe that all these democratic countries have an obligation to put a decisive immediate military end to the Syrian-Iranian expansionism and havoc schemes, and to as soon as possible eradicate totally their terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas or otherwise there be no peace or stability in the whole middle east.
 

Click her to read the Arabic Alwatan report
http://www.10452lccc.com/reports/alwatan20.09.10.htm

*Elias Bejjani
*Canadian-Lebanese Human Rights activist, journalist and political commentator
*Email phoenicia@hotmail.com
*Web sites http://www.10452lccc.com & http://www.clhrf.com
*Mailing phoenicia group http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Phoenicia/.