LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 23/07

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12,13-21. Someone in the crowd said to him, "Teacher, tell my brother to share the inheritance with me."He replied to him, "Friend, who appointed me as your judge and arbitrator?" Then he said to the crowd, "Take care to guard against all greed, for though one may be rich, one's life does not consist of possessions." Then he told them a parable. "There was a rich man whose land produced a bountiful harvest. He asked himself, 'What shall I do, for I do not have space to store my harvest?' And he said, 'This is what I shall do: I shall tear down my barns and build larger ones. There I shall store all my grain and other goods and I shall say to myself, "Now as for you, you have so many good things stored up for many years, rest, eat, drink, be merry!" But God said to him, 'You fool, this night your life will be demanded of you; and the things you have prepared, to whom will they belong?' Thus will it be for the one who stores up treasure for himself but is not rich in what matters to God."

Free Opinions & Special Reports
The Risk of Waiting. By: Abdallah Iskandar. Dar Al-Hayat. October 22/07
Religious values must seek partnerships with national and political struggles.The Daily Star. October 22/07
Call Annapolis off, it will only make things worse.By Yossi Alphe.October 22/07

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 22/07
Qassem Launches Vehement Attack on March 14- Naharnet
Gemayel, Aoun Meeting Could Have Positive Effect on Divided Christians
- Naharnet
Abbas Wants Lebanon and Syria in Peace Talks
- Naharnet
FEATURE-MPs shelter from assassins in Beirut hotel.Reuters

Presidential Election Postponed Again Till November 12.Naharnet
Jumblat Accuses Hizbullah, Syria of Assassinations-Naharnet
Gemayel, Aoun Meeting Could Have Positive Effect on Divided Christians.Naharnet
Hezbollah hands over letter from missing Israeli airman.Africasia
Jumblatt to Bush: Send car bombs to Damascus.Ha'aretz
Lebanon's Jumblatt calls on US to impose sanctions on Syria ...
International Herald Tribune
Hezbollah Warns US Not to Set Up Base
.The Associated Press
Missile defense need be only 80 percent effective, ex-Pentagon ...Ha'aretz
Israel: Kuntar will not be exchanged in prisoner swap.Israel Insider
NKorea envoy in Syria amid nuclear talk.AFP
Syria and UN sign agreement to assess number of Iraqi refugees
.International Herald Tribune
Syria denies Assad backing for Turkish action in Iraq.AFP


Cheney adds 'bribery' to list of accusations against Syria in Lebanon, vows to prevent Iranian nukes.Daily Star
Feuding Lebanese factions show signs of progress-Daily Star
Sfeir repeats call for MPs to take part in presidential vote-Daily Star
European ministers insist UNIFIL peacekeepers will continue mission in South despite threats-Daily Star
Norway opens embassy in Beirut, pledges program of cooperation-Daily Star
Ankara 'offered to help reconcile' Beirut, Damascus-Daily Star
October 23 session looks increasingly unlikely-Daily Star
In Lebanon, a Comeback for Cannabis.ABC News
Abssi's wife denies link between militants, Siniora government-Daily Star
Former UN mediator on Arab-Israeli conflict to give lecture at AUB-Daily Star
New association hopes to help Lebanon and Nigeria learn something from each other-Daily Star
Lebanese patience for Nahr al-Bared displaced wears thin.AFP
Egyptian nun battles female genital mutilation.AFP
Iran says new nuclear negotiator won't mean change in policy.AFP
OGERO announces plans to cut rates on international phone calls-Daily Star
Lebanon to allow price of oil to float if market rises further-Daily Star

Sfeir repeats call for MPs to take part in presidential vote
Daily Star staff
Monday, October 22, 2007
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir reiterated on Sunday that Lebanese MPs have a national duty to participate in Tuesday's Parliament session to elect a successor to President Emile Lahoud. The session is likely to be postponed for lack of a deal between the opposition and the majority over a candidate.
"The Lebanese people have deputized, according to our parliamentary system, others to elect a president for six years," Sfeir said in his Sunday sermon at Bkirki. "These are the MPs of this nation and national duty requires that they follow what their conscience tells them if they want to remain on this land with their children and grandchildren."Sfeir has been trying for almost a month to broker a deal between the Western-backed March 14 Forces and the Hizbullah-led opposition to elect a consensus candidate. Meanwhile, Lebanon's top Shiite cleric said on Sunday that the US administration wants the Lebanese to choose between having their country turn into an American military base or face new problems.The allegation by Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah came three days after a senior Pentagon official said the US military would like to see a "strategic partnership" with Lebanon's army to strengthen the country's forces so that the Hizbullah would have no excuse to bear arms. "The US administration is offering the Lebanese a choice either to accept their country being turned into a US military, security and political base, or to expect new strife," Fadlallah said in a statement on Sunday.
Eric Edelman, US undersecretary of defense for policy, spoke about a "strategic partnership" with Lebanon's army in an interview aired on local television Thursday, two days after he held talks in Beirut on military cooperation with the government of Premier Fouad Siniora and other officials.
Since last year's war between Lebanon and Israel, Washington has sharply increased its military assistance to Beirut to $270 million in 2007 - more than five times the amount provided a year ago - in a show of support to Siniora's government. "The Lebanese, who have seen the American failure in Iraq and felt the American involvement with Israel in last year's war against Lebanon ... must be aware that what the administration of President Bush is aiming at is something else other than supporting the Lebanese Army," Fadlallah said. The US "is working to make Lebanon a new base for chaos and another position for NATO in order to exert pressure on regional and international powers which disobeyed its decisions and policies," the cleric added in a clear reference to Iran and Syria. - The Daily Star, AP

Jumblat Accuses Hizbullah, Syria of Assassinations
Democratic Gathering leader Walid Jumblat reiterated accusations against Damascus and Hizbullah, saying they were behind the recent assassinations of Lebanon's anti-Syrian MPs."I believe it's Syria and it's Hizbullah ally," said Jumblat in response to a question by CNN television network of who was responsible for the spate of political assassinations in Lebanon. Jumblat said he believes the assassinations of MP Antoine Ghanem on Sept. 19 was, like previous political killings, aimed at preventing Lebanon's parliament from convening to elect a president "freely, a president who respects the law and international resolutions."
He said that until now the pro-government March 14 camp remains the ruling majority. However, Jumblat, said that if "they were able to kill four more (MPs from March 14) then we will not remain the majority." Beirut, 22 Oct 07, 11:42

Gemayel, Aoun Meeting Could Have Positive Effect on Divided Christians

Former President Amin Gemayel held a surprise meeting with rival opposition leader Gen. Michel Aoun aimed at bringing the viewpoints closer toward reaching consensus on a presidential candidate. The talks between the supreme leader of the Phalange Party and the chief of the Free Patriotic Movement late Sunday were held at the house of a "common friend" in Mtaileb. The daily An Nahar on Monday, citing Phalange Party sources, said the Gemayel-Aoun talks were bound to reflect positively on the Christian status. It said the two-hour talks were also aimed at facilitating the Bkirki initiative and the committee that was formed to follow-up
on meetings held by the Maronite Church in an effort to reach consensus on a presidential candidate.
The sources said the two leaders did not deal with the names of presidential candidates, but stressed on the need to elect a "compromise" president on time.
Prior to their meeting with Aoun, Gemayel dispatched delegates to inform Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, MP Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces leaders Samir Geagea of the purpose of his move. A statement issued at the end of the Mtaileb meeting said the two leaders discussed the upcoming presidential election.
The statement, read by Gemayel, also stressed the need to:
- Provide a positive atmosphere based on consensus and respect for the constitution.
- Adhere to political frameworks and democratic methods in settling any dispute among the Lebanese.
- Broaden the scope of dialogue among the various parties and consider this meeting as an introduction to other meetings to be held amongst all Christian and Lebanese leaders so that the logic of understanding would prevail over the logic of confrontations. Beirut, 22 Oct 07, 05:39

Hizbullah Passes to Israel Letter from Arad
Israel disclosed Monday that it has received from Hizbullah a letter written by an airman who went missing in Lebanon more than 20 years ago.
Ron Arad, a national hero in Israel who has never been officially declared dead, wrote the letter to his wife Tami in 1986, shortly after he was captured in Lebanon during the civil war after ejecting from his fighter-bomber. Tami was given the letter at Israel's defense ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, along with a photograph of Arad, the existence of which was previously unknown, the top-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper reported.
The long letter, peppered with intimate phrases, detailed Arad's deep love for his wife, their daughter, who was just a baby when he disappeared, and his family, causing Tami to break down in tears when she read it, according to the report. The documents were the first news of the air force navigator since September 2006 when Lebanese and Israeli television broadcast footage dating back to 1988 of Arad identifying himself in captivity.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in Paris for talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, confirmed that a "very touching" letter had been received from Arad and expressed hope that the airman's fate would soon be known. "Taking into consideration it is such a personal letter, I'd rather not comment beyond the fact that I know such a letter was received," he said in a Paris park under pictures of three Israeli soldiers missing since last year.
"We have done and will continue making the utmost effort to obtain freedom of the missing soldiers. I hope the full picture on his (Arad's) fate will be made clear to us and his family," Olmert said. Hizbullah handed over the letter and the corpse of an Israeli civilian in exchange for the bodies of two Hizbullah militants and a prisoner last Monday in the first such swap between the two enemies in nearly four years.
Hizbullah also gave Israel the introduction of a report about its fruitless efforts to find out what happened to Arad, Yediot Aharonot said.
The navigator has been missing since 1986. He was captured by Shiite movement, Amal, headed by Nabih Berri, who is now speaker of the Lebanese parliament.
Israel refuses to declare Arad officially dead. In January 2006, Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah said he was probably dead although he had no proof.
Israel engaged in lengthy negotiations for the release of Arad but contact was terminated when it bombed the south Lebanon village of Maydoun in 1996.
Amal security chief Mustafa Dirani, whom Israeli commandos kidnapped from southern Lebanon in 1994, was thought to have handed over Arad to Hizbullah who reportedly held him in the southern Bekaa Valley. Israel has accused Hizbullah of handing him over to Iran, a claim that Tehran has long denied.
Israel released Dirani in January 2004 with hundreds of Palestinian and other Arab prisoners in an exchange with Hizbullah for kidnapped Israeli businessman Elchanan Tannenbaum and the remains of three Israeli soldiers. Hizbullah also agreed to hand over information on Arad's fate in exchange for freeing Lebanese Samir Kantar but the agreement was never finalized. Kantar was sentenced to 542 years in jail in 1980 for an attack in northern Israel in which an Israeli scientist, his daughter and a policeman were killed. The Arad family has established an association offering a 10 million dollar reward for information on the airman's fate.(AFP-Naharnet)
Beirut, 22 Oct 07, 13:57

Cheney adds 'bribery' to list of accusations against Syria in Lebanon, vows to prevent Iranian nukes
Compiled by Daily Star staff
Monday, October 22, 2007
US Vice President Dick Cheney on Sunday accused Syria of using "bribery and intimidation" to undermine a free vote in Lebanon's upcoming presidential election. "We are of course hopeful and a great deal concerned about the future of Lebanon, which will elect a president in the coming weeks," he said in a speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a pro-Israeli think tank. "Through bribery and intimidation, Syria and its agents are attempting to prevent the democratic majority in Lebanon from electing a truly independent president," Cheney said. "Lebanon has the right to conduct the upcoming elections free of any foreign interference," he added, insisting that Washington would work with its allies "to preserve Lebanon's hard-won independence and to defeat the forces of extremism and terror."
The US government has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the ruling coalition in beirut, most of it for the security forces.
Lebanon's Parliament is due to convene on Tuesday to pick a successor to the current head of state, Emile Lahoud, whose term ends on November 24. But analysts and politicians say the session is likely to be postponed. On October 4, US President George W. Bush said he was "deeply concerned about foreign interference" by countries "such as Syria" in Lebanon.
"The message has been sent to nations such as Syria that they should not interfere," Bush said as he met with Lebanese parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri, son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Cheney also went after Iran, warning that the US and other nations will not allow it to obtain a nuclear weapon.
"Our country, and the entire international community, cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions," Cheney said.
He said Iran's efforts to pursue technology that would allow it to build a nuclear weapon are obvious and that "the regime continues to practice delay and deceit in an obvious effort to buy time." If Iran continues on its current course, Cheney said the US and other nations are prepared to take action. The vice president, however, made no specific reference to military action.
"We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon," he said. The US and some allies accuse Iran of secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons and have demanded it halt uranium enrichment. Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes, including generating electricity. Even other anti-Iranian figures who spoke at the Washington Institute conference after Cheney's speech noted that American rhetoric against Iran was being sharply escalated. "The language on Iran is quite significant," former Middle East presidential envoy Dennis Ross said, adding: "That's very strong words and it does have implications."
At a news conference last week, Bush suggested that if Iran obtained nuclear weapons, it could lead to a new world war. "I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them [Iran] from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon," Bush said.
Bush's spokeswoman later said the president was not making any war plans but rather "a rhetorical point." - Agencies

Feuding Lebanese factions show signs of progress
Aoun and gemayel hold late-night talks at home of mutual friend
By Hani M. Bathish
Daily Star staff
Monday, October 22, 2007
BEIRUT: Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun and former President Amin Gemayel held talks on Sunday at the residence of a common friend in Rabweh. The meeting between Aoun, a key opposition player, and Gemayel, a stalwart of the ruling March 14 coalition, was still under way when The Daily Star went to press, but the talks were believed to be aimed at breaking the impasse over the election of Lebanon's next president. The relationship between the two men suffered a downturn in the aftermath of the Metn by-election in August, when Gemayel lost to FPM candidate Camille Khoury for the seat made vacant by the assassination of the former president's son, Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel. In another sign of a possible rapprochement, the National News Agency reported late Sunday that Lebanese Forces (LF) MP Georges Adwan had visited Aoun at the latter's residence in Rabieh earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the diplomatic weight of three European foreign ministers, as well as a positive meeting between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri, failed to settle the presidential issue. Amal Movement MP Ali Hassan Khalil told New TV that the Parliament session scheduled for Tuesday to elect a new president would almost certainly fail to take place because either opposition MPs would boycott it or Berri would postpone it. Both camps have said more time is needed to build consensus on a candidate, and Berri and Hariri at their Friday meeting progressed to the stage of discussing names.
Gemayel, speaking to Voice of Lebanon radio on Sunday, said Tuesday's session would be postponed for 10-15 days. "We can consider it postponed. Speaker Berri was informed after consulting with all parliamentary blocs that it is better to postpone the session for several weeks," while Berri's and Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir's initiatives proceed, he said. Gemayel said he hoped the extra time would be used wisely and lead to a consensus on a president capable of protecting the country or a choice of two or three suitable candidates who can be nominated for a vote by MPs. Parliamentary sources told the Naharnet Web site on Sunday that Berri was considering rescheduling the session for November 6 or 13.
The foreign ministers of France, Italy and Spain - Bernard Kouchner, Massimo D'Alema and Miguel Angel Moratinos, respectively - left Beirut with the distinct impression that matters concerning presidential election were "moving forward and in the right direction," Kouchner said. "It's a very strong sign that the three countries come at a very timely moment," Moratinos said at a news conference at UN Interim Force in Lebanon headquarters in South Lebanon on Saturday, calling the visit "historic."Gemayel in his radio interview said that international backing for Lebanon was unwavering and that the EU had proved it by sending the foreign ministers to Lebanon. "They do not have a magic wand to impose their will on Lebanese MPs," he said, "but this does not prevent their visit from being one of support and encouragement and a way for sending messages."
Gemayel said a meeting of opposition and majority leaders with the three ministers at the French ambassador's residence on Saturday evening was simply an opportunity to meet and talk. "I cannot say that anything new happened, as each side merely restated their fixed positions. March 14 stressed the need to hold elections within the constitutional timeframe and rejected the emergence of a constitutional vacuum, while March 8 stressed the need for a two-thirds quorum," Gemayel said.
Apart from Gemayel, those in attendance included LF leader Samir Geagea, Aoun and resigned Energy Minister Mohammad Fneish of Hizbullah.
The Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation reported that during the meeting Geagea rejected the idea of a agreeing on a president ahead of an electoral session, while Fneish warned that the country would face great difficulties if the majority elected a president by a simple majority. Geagea wondered why the country should face difficulties when there were constitutional institutions through which matters can be settled. Fneish said opposition MPs have the constitutional right not to attend an electoral session.
Kouchner, meanwhile, told reporters that the EU foreign ministers came out of the meeting "with the feeling that things are getting better."
"It seems to us that there is some movement forward," the French official added. March 14 presidential candidate and MP Butros Harb said a constitutional vacuum at the pinnacle of the state threatened the country with disintegration. "Whoever thinks he is capable of managing a vacuum while ensuring security and unity is mistaken. We have to avoid a vacuum," Harb said, adding that MPs might have a constitutional right not to attend a parliamentary session, but not if the action leads to a constitutional vacuum. Harb said Sfeir's and Berri's initiatives complemented one another, adding that both camps would try to agree on a president who met Sfeir's specifications. "I will not participate is selecting a president who does not meet these criteria," Harb said, adding that it was unacceptable for Lebanon to have a weak, subservient president who lacks experience and the required character to lead the country.
Social Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad, who met US Vice President Dick Cheney in Washington on Saturday, repeated frequent government accusations of Syrian interference in Lebanon and argued that the best defense was Christian accord on a new president. "We will do our utmost to make sure [Sfeir's] initiative succeeds," she said, "as we believe what [Sfeir] said - failing to elect a new president before November 24 would place Christians' existence in Lebanon at risk."
Cheney told Mouawad that the US would protect Leba-non's current government. Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said the majority would not accept an "interim" president elected for a two-year term, as some have suggested. He said while consensus was the "preferred path," the election will proceed in any case.
"We will not leave Lebanon without a president," he said.
For his part, Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Rida Shibani said that all "foreign and domestic conspiracies" to hold Lebanon hostage to US and Israeli aims would fail.
"Iran will always remain supportive of the rights of Lebanese people in rejecting oppression and resisting the occupier," he said at a ceremony on Sunday to honor him and Iran's reconstruction efforts in the South after last year's war with Israel. Hizbullah's number two, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said a strategic partnership between Lebanon and the US was impossible and those seeking it aimed to crush the resistance in favor of Israel. He made the comments at memorial ceremony on Sunday for a resistance fighter whose remains were among those returned by Israel in an October 14 prisoner exchange.
"Holding elections with half plus one of MPs, if you think of it, means you choose strife, and are thus responsible for your choice," Qassem said, adding that reaching a consensus on the presidency would put an end to US tutelage over Lebanon.

European ministers insist UNIFIL peacekeepers will continue mission in South despite threats
Foreign ministers of France, Italy, spain hope to mediate between rival camps

Monday, October 22, 2007
NAQOURA: In a symbolic visit to South Lebanon, the foreign ministers of France, Italy and Spain pledged unequivocal support for UN peacekeepers overseeing a truce along the Lebanese-Israeli border increasingly threatened by Al-Qaeda-inspired militants and political instability in Beirut.
The visit by Bernard Kouchner of France, Massimo D'Alema of Italy and Miguel Angel Moratinos of Spain comes at a difficult political time for Lebanon. The three ministers are hoping to help mediate among the feuding Lebanese factions because the deep political crisis in Beirut could have serious implications on the UN mission in Southern Lebanon.
Already, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) of 13,530 from some 28 countries have come under attack in South Lebanon. A car bombing in June killed six peacekeepers from the Spanish contingent. Other bombings have recently been thwarted by authorities, with army intelligence announcing early in the week the arrest of seven Palestinian militants who had planned attacks.
No group has claimed responsibility for the June attack or another that followed in July. But in a July videotape, Al-Qaeda's deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahri blessed the first attack, fueling speculation that it was carried out by Al-Qaeda-linked militants. "UNIFIL is here to carry out its mission," D'Alema told a joint news conference in Beirut late Saturday. "No one can threaten UNIFIL. If some terrorists are thinking that UNIFIL will leave they are wrong. No one should think that the international community would leave Lebanon. We are here until we succeed and help safeguard the country's independence and strengthen democracy."
Kouchner also said there would be no change in the peacekeepers' mission. "We will continue our mission and we didn't come to reduce our forces."
Mindful of repercussions on UNIFIL from the political turmoil in the country, the three ministers prodded rival Lebanese factions to agree on the election of a new president as a key step toward breaking a months-long political deadlock, and managed to bring the feuding pro-government and opposition politicians together in a meeting they attended late Saturday.
Earlier in the day, the three top diplomats flew by UN helicopter from Beirut to UNIFIL headquarters in this fishing border town on the Mediterranean Sea for a briefing from force commander Major General Claudio Graziano of Italy. The three countries make up roughly half of the force's ground troops, with 3,000 Italian troops and 1,200 from both the French and Spanish. In statements at Naqoura earlier in the day, the Italian foreign minister said it was the first time the three foreign ministers of the main Euro-Mediterranean countries were together in Lebanon. "I want to stress how important is this message of commitment, engagement and unity. Our presence here is a testimony of our support ... and deep appreciation," D'Alema said.
Kouchner said the troika's visit to UNIFIL was "to reinforce our support to the international community forces," and he vowed continued support, adding: "We are strongly determined to follow till the end. The end is what? Peace, unity, sovereignty of Lebanon." Moratinos said the three came "to salute our troops, to salute UNIFIL, this UN force that is working to stabilize the situation."
The reinforced UNIFIL deployed after last summer's devastating war with Israel that killed up to 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians, and some 160 Israelis, all but 40 of them soldiers. Under UN Resolution 1701, the UN peacekeepers assists about 15,000 Lebanese Army troops maintain a weapons-free zone along the border. - Agencies

Ankara 'offered to help reconcile' Beirut, Damascus
Daily Star staff
Monday, October 22, 2007
BEIRUT: Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan has offered his country's mediation to improve relations between Lebanon and Syria, London's Al-Hayat newspaper reported Saturday. According to the Saudi-owned daily, Babacan made the offer to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora during a dinner meeting hosted by the former at the Grand Serail on Friday. Siniora, according to the report, did not comment on the Turkish offer, but rather briefed his guest on the nature of the ties between Beirut and Damascus during the past two years. The relationship between Lebanon and Syria deteriorated following the February 14, 2005 assassination of then Premier Rafik Hariri. Many Lebanese blamed Syria, and mass demonstrations forced Syria to pull out its troops from Lebanon after 29 years of military presence.
The daily said Turkey, in light of its developing relations with Syria, was "ready to play a role in bridging the gap between Lebanon and Syria."
Siniora "neither rejected the mediation nor accepted it," the paper added. Al-Hayat said Siniora discussed with Babacan "the main problematic issues between the two countries, including border demarcation and control, in addition to Lebanon's interest in combating smuggling of weapons across its borders." Siniora explained to his Turkish guest the "impact" of Syria's intervention in Lebanon's politics, noting that "such persisting intervention is not acceptable," Al-Hayat said. Tackling regional issues, Siniora did not comment on Babacan's request for support for Turkey's decision to launch military attacks against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. However, the premier reiterated Lebanon's standard policy that objects to the violation of the sovereignty of any Arab state, such as its stand during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the September 6 Israeli air raid on Syria. - The Daily Star

October 23 session looks increasingly unlikely
Two sides have yet to agree on presidency

By Hani M. Bathish
Daily Star staff
Monday, October 22, 2007
BEIRUT: As the constitutional deadline to elect a new president looms with the end of President Emile Lahoud's term on November 24, the opposing sides seem no closer to agreeing on a consensus successor. The Parliament session scheduled for October 23 seems likely to be a repeat of the September 25 session, which failed to gather a two-thirds quorum, with Maronite leaders from the majority and opposition taking weeks to meet together in Bkirki, let alone agreeing on the identity of the next president. Despite the "extreme positions" coming out of the majority and opposition camps, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who met parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri in Ain al-Tineh late Friday, said he remained optimistic and felt the political climate to be positive.
"Consensus is near and will be achieved soon," said Berri, adding that he would go to Parliament on October 23.
National Liberal Party (NLP) leader and pro-government stalwart Dory Chamoun was not as optimistic that a consensus could be achieved by the October 23 session.
"If it was going to rain, we would have seen some clouds," Chamoun said. "They [the opposition] want to elect a president to please Syria - we want to elect a president to please the Lebanese," Chamoun told The Daily Star. The ruling March 14 coalition has long claimed that the March 8 camp is in thrall to Syria and Iran, while the Hizbullah-led opposition has charged the March 14 Forces with taking orders from the US.
Chamoun said that before an agreement can be reached, there would first have to be an agreement on the political agenda of a new president between the majority and opposition. A new president, he said, would have to "rule in accordance with the principles of independence and sovereignty, respect the Constitution and international resolutions and adhere to the decisions taken during the national dialogue."Retired General Elias Hanna said he saw the Lebanese Army approaching a terrible dilemma if a new president were not elected within the constitutional deadline. With the political confrontation split between Sunnis in the majority and Shiites in the opposition, as well as their respective Christian allies, the multi-confessional army would be unlikely to intervene, he said, for fear of being split in two.
"As Speaker Berri said, the army would remain in its barracks. If it did intervene, the army therefore has a major problem [regarding] on whose side it will be," Hanna said. "We all remember what happened on January 23 this year; think of a similar situation but lasting for more than a few days with a president elected by a simple majority and not accepted by all his people."On January 23, sectarian clashes erupted in the streets of Beirut, with Shiites and Sunnis squaring off.
Hanna said he believed the army's response would be determined by the security situation on the ground.
"One extreme outcome could be a split in the army - it could happen," Hanna said, speculating on what may happen if two rival governments were to emerge.
"It all depends on the political behavior of both sides, whether two governments take power or if there is a general uprising," Hanna said, adding that in these scenarios the army and the country would be the losers. As for the establishment of a transitional government headed by army commander General Michel Suleiman, Hanna, who also teaches political science, said that such a move was unconstitutional, and so the March 14 alliance would be against it.
"If Suleiman is to be elected president, he would need a constitutional amendment, which requires both sides to agree to it," Hanna said. Civil-service officers of Suleiman's rank cannot become president until two years after they leave office, according to the Constitution.
Media reports say that Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir would not object to an interim president to rule Lebanon for two years if difficulties persist in reaching a consensus. Some have speculated that Suleiman, a popular army commander and a Maronite, would be favored by Bkirki and many Lebanese eager for an end to the state of uncertainty that has persisted for the past year since six opposition ministers resigned from the government.
But March 14 presidential candidate MP Butros Harb said he refused to accept a president elected as a stopgap measure.
"We believe this would only postpone and amplify the crisis," Harb said in an earlier interview. He said it would be unacceptable to impose a president who did not have a vision, experience or the ability to solve Lebanon's problems.Legal expert Ziad Baroud told The Daily Star the October 23 session would most likely not convene, because two-thirds of deputies would not turn up, as happened on September 25.
"You cannot elect a president with a simple majority of half plus one of MPs' votes in the first round of voting - only in the second round, and you need a quorum of two-thirds for a session to convene in the fist place," Baroud said. He said opposition MPs would not attend on October 23 because they knew the majority would then elect one of its candidates by simple majority in a second round of voting.
Article 73 of the Constitution stipulates that "should [Parliament] not be summoned [by the speaker to elect a new president], the chamber shall meet of its own accord on the 10th day preceding the expiration of the president's term of office."
Baroud said Berri has said he intended to convene Parliament in the last 10 days preceding the end of Lahoud's term, in a step intended to pre-empt majority MPs from coming to the legislature and electing a president with a simple majority in a single round of voting.

Abssi's wife denies link between militants, Siniora government
By Mohammed Zaatari
Daily Star staff
Monday, October 22, 2007
SIDON: The wife of fugitive Fatah al-Islam leader Shaker al-Abssi denied over the weekend that the Lebanese government had "any sort" of ties with the Al-Qaeda-inspired militant group her husband headed. "The Lebanese government did not facilitate the entry of Fatah al-Islam militants into the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp, and MP Saad Hariri has never provided funding to our group," Rishdiyeh al-Abssi told a group of journalists at Sidon's Al-Arqam Mosque, where she resides with the families of other Fatah al-Islam militants.
MP Bahia Hariri has admitted that her family had given money to Palestinian groups in the poverty-stricken Taamir neighborhood at the restive Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Sidon. The Hariri family, however, has repeatedly dismissed having any connection or funding any extremist groups. The conflict between the Lebanese Army and Fatah al-Islam at the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp ended on September 2, after 106 days of intensive fighting. The death toll of soldiers, militants and civilians topped 400. Asked whether she had any information concerning her husband, Abssi said she had not heard from him.
"Since I left the Nahr al-Bared camp I never heard from him, but I am in touch with our family in Jordan," she said. Abssi and her daughter identified the body of a Fatah al-Islam militant as her husband, but DNA tests determined that the body belonged to a man at least 10 years younger than her husband, and she later said it was possible that she had been mistaken in identifying the body.
In late August, 25 wives of Fatah al-Islam fighters with 38 of their children were evacuated from the besieged camp, with some seeking refuge in Sidon and others going to the homes of relatives elsewhere in the country. About one week after the evacuation, the remaining militants launched an abortive mass-breakout bid, which the Lebanese Army crushed and ended the three-month conflict. Shaker al-Abssi reportedly fled hours before the failed escape attempt.
His wife said the experience at the Nahr al-Bared camp during the fighting was an "extremely tough one." "We ran out of potable water to quench our thirst, so we had to resort to wells inside the camp ... but the water in there was salty most of the time," she said. She told reporters that her stay in the Al-Arqam Mosque was not "less stressful" than her experience in the camp during the 15-plus weeks of fighting.
"We live in very difficult conditions and go through very tough moments," she said. "We are 34 living in the same room."Eleven Fatah al-Islam families left the Southern coastal city of Sidon last week on their way to Syria, following weeks of negotiations over their departure. The families were among the 17 families who, after the evacuation, were spirited to the Al-Arqam Mosque in the middle of the night. Six families remain at the mosque, because they do not have proper travel documents.

Egyptian nun battles female genital mutilation
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Monday, October 22, 2007
BAYAD AL-ARAB, Egypt: Twice "circumcised," Wafaa Helmy swore her own daughters would never suffer the same fate. But one night her own mother secretly took her first-born to go under the knife in their Upper Egypt village. Despite pronouncements to the contrary by both Muslim and Christian clerics, she believes, as do many Egyptians, that this "purification" is a religious duty that helps preserve a girl's virtue and honor.
The social stigma of not having her granddaughter's labia and/or clitoris cut off was just too strong for her.
Official Egyptian statistics say 97 percent of women aged 15 to 49, Christians and Muslims alike, have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM), also known as "female circumcision."In June, following the death of a 12-year-old girl, Health Minister Hatem al-Gabali issued a decree banning every doctor and member of the medical profession from performing the procedure. That ban must still be translated into law and could face a tough debate in Parliament's next session in November. A ban was already imposed in 1997 but operations were allowed in "exceptional cases."FGM can cause death through infectiom, hemorrhaging and later complications during childbirth. It also carries risks of urinary tract problems and mental trauma.
"It's a big problem with my husband. We argue all the time. I never want to make love. I have no reaction, no feelings, no pleasure," says Helmy, 35, attending an information session organized by the Coptic Center for Education and Development NGO at a church in Bayad al-Arab, south of Cairo.Helmy, a Copt, was circumcised twice at the age of 10 because "there was still a little bit left."
Kawkaba Fathi, a Muslim, has found her own way of dealing with the problem. "I pretend I'm enjoying it to keep my husband happy and it's going much better," she says, her round face placid and framed by a black veil. Fathi's operation was carried out "the Sudanese way," meaning that all her external genital organs were cut off. Traumatized, she decided with her husband not to have the operation done on their three daughters. Around 60 women, all circumcised, gathered to listen to a gynecologist from the NGO. "Circumcision is a very, very old tradition and has no connection with religion," says Mariam Munib. Some women nod in agreement, but others are concerned about what people will say. "What if the husband rejects my daughter on their wedding night because she hasn't been circumcised?" asks one mother. "People have to know if the girl is normal, if [her sexual organs] are too big, or deformed?" says another, echoing a belief among many here that too "prominent" genitals must be cut off - at least if they're female. "Do you take your daughter to the doctor to know if her nose or eyes are too big or small? So why would you do it for that part of the body?" asks Sister Joanna, the petite and slightly stern Coptic nun who runs the NGO.
The government has even enlisted the country's top religious authorities to drive home the message against what the UN Children's Fund, describes as "one of the most persistent, pervasive and silently endured human rights violations." Mohammad Sayyed Tantawi, the sheikh of Al-Azhar University, the top Sunni authority, and Coptic Patriarch Shenouda III also declared it had no foundation in the religious texts of either Islam or Christianity. The center is particularly worried about girls aged eight to 12, prime time for circumcision. Arranging seminars in 15 villages in the deserts of Upper Egypt, workers hand out tea, washing powder and soap to encourage women to come. Sister Joanna insists there has been headway. "Ten years ago it was taboo even to say 'female circumcision,'" she says, citing progress in spite of widespread local distrust including rumors she is pushing a Western agenda "to corrupt Egyptian girls." - AFP

Lebanon's Government by Murder
By David Schenker
October 17, 2007
Forty Lebanese members of parliament belonging to the pro-Western, anti-Syria March 14th majority bloc currently reside in Tower 3 at Beirut's Phoenicia Intercontinental Hotel. With plush couches, stereos and flat-screen TVs, the two-bedroom units at the Phoenicia are swank. But the lawmakers aren't guests; they're prisoners. To get into the Phoenicia, you have to traverse no fewer than three security checkpoints, pass through a metal detector and show ID. Armed escorts from Lebanon's Internal Security Forces accompany guests to their rooms. Inside, curtains are permanently drawn to discourage snipers from targeting the MPs. One confined parliament member described the setup as "Abu Ghraib."
As the isolation of these legislators suggests, the March 14th bloc is taking its security seriously, and with good reason. Since 2005, four members of parliament affiliated with this bloc have been assassinated in Beirut. These killings, the death by natural causes of one MP and the political defection of yet another have sorely depleted the ranks of the majority. A government that once had 72 out of 128 legislators now rules by a razor-thin margin of 68 of 127 seats.
The Bashar Assad regime in Syria is widely assumed to be behind the campaign of assassination. Its goal is to weaken, supplant or intimidate the democratically elected government in Beirut and thus end the international tribunal that will almost certainly implicate Damascus in the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Presidential elections -- which began on Sept. 25 and run through Nov. 25 -- have only increased the threat to the majority. The president in Lebanon is elected by parliament, and the majority has made clear that although it would prefer to choose by consensus, it will elect the chief executive by a simple majority if no acceptable compromise candidate can be found.
The Hezbollah-led, Syrian-backed opposition says it will not recognize a non-consensus president. For its part, Damascus has stipulated that the next Lebanese president should be moqawam, i.e., a supporter of Hezbollah, and "of Arab belonging," i.e., pro-Syrian. Should the Syrians and the opposition succeed in either toppling the government by attrition or installing a crony like outgoing President Emile Lahoud, the tribunal could be delayed if not derailed.
The tribunal, convened at the behest of the U.N. Security Council, appears to be a train that has left the station. But election of a "compromise" president -- someone more sympathetic to Damascus -- could weaken Beirut's commitment to and undermine international support for the tribunal. Syria could also scuttle the tribunal by ending March 14th's control of the government.
The good news, if there is any, is that in the short run it will be difficult for the Syrians to kill enough March 14th MPs to change the majority before the end of presidential elections. This is because, unlike what occurred following previous assassinations, Lebanon will not hold new elections to fill vacant seats before Nov. 25. The simple, macabre math means that the Syrians would have to kill eight more parliamentarians -- leaving March 14th, with 60 of 119 seats, short of a half-plus-one majority -- in order to force new elections.
Of course, given Syrian persistence, the math is not reassuring. For Damascus, the numbers game likely makes the Phoenicia a more appealing target. And even if the majority survives the presidential elections intact, there is no indication that the campaign of assassinations will stop.
Clearly, Lebanon cannot protect itself. Likewise, to date, the U.N. resolutions censuring Syria for its role in Lebanon have not proved an effective deterrent to Syrian misdeeds. Given the stakes -- a revitalized Syrian and Iranian presence in Lebanon and the potential reorientation of Beirut away from the West -- the preservation of the current Lebanese government is a must.
For Washington, the key will be to craft a policy to prevent Syria and its Lebanese allies from subverting the government in Beirut. One possibility is to deploy, at Lebanon's request, international forces -- under the auspices of already-in-force U.N. Security Council resolutions -- to protect targeted politicians. A more effective but politically difficult option would be to hold Syria accountable for all future political murders in Lebanon.
Regardless of how Washington proceeds, immediate action is required. The ongoing thinning of the majority raises the very real specter that the results of the 2005 parliamentary elections in Lebanon will be reversed by terrorism. Should this trend of assassinations continue unchallenged, the pro-Syrian opposition, led by the Iranian-sponsored Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah, waits in the wings.
David Schenker is a senior fellow in Arab politics <http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateI03.php?SID=1> at the Washington Institute. From 2002 to 2006, he served in the office of the secretary of Defense as country director for Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian territories.

Are Syria and Iran Manipulating Turkey on Iraq?
By Walid Phares

PKK is the Kurdish Worker’s Party that adopted violence in its struggle against Turkey. As the Turkish Parliament recently voted to authorize a limited invasion into Northern Iraq to fight the PKK militias, one can see the rising shadows of two hostile regimes in the region, eager to see a NATO member, Turkey, eventually clashing with the United States through their local allies in Iraq.
Indeed, the Iranian and Syrian regimes have been pushing the precarious mechanisms of a Turkish military intervention into Northern Iraq for a while now. Logically, a collapse of security in the most secure part of Iraq would lead to a crumbling of the military stabilization of the country, a chief objective of US plans in Iraq.
But the Iran plans for Iraq, which I have analyzed in a previous article, consist of three types of destabilization:
An Iranian push in the south,
a Syrian opening for the Jihadists in the center, and
dragging Turkey to a dogfight in the mountains of the north.
In order to launch the third leg preemptively into Iraqi Kurdistan, Tehran and Damascus have been pushing all the right buttons for the confrontation. Iran's shelling of villages in the northern part of Iraqi Kurdistan over the past months aimed at encouraging Turkey to do the same.
Opening salvos by the Ayatollahs are to test the Kurdish and US reactions. Moreover, Iran's Pasdaran - the Revolutionary Guard that provides training and support to terrorist groups throughout the region and abroad - is said to have infiltrated some circles within the PKK, since the latter was based in Syria a few years ago. The PKK suddenly has been waging inexplicable operations inside Eastern Turkey with a new energy, after years of calm. Sources believe the PKK was manipulated by both Iran and Syria into these terror acts on Turkish soil while the official bases of the group are on Iraqi soil. Hence the attacks triggering Turkish anger and responses may have been manipulated by the "axis."
But the Syrian regime has another card it could have played. According to well informed sources in the region, and not to the surprise of experts, the Alawite regime in Syria (Alawites are important to the leadership of Syria, as President Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez are Alawite) has had good relations with Alawite officers inside the Turkish armed forces. The “Alawite connection” may have been activated to encourage a military response and incursion into northern Iraq. But nevertheless, the Assad regime and the Turkish Islamist Government - reinforced by the last Presidential election in Ankara - have a joint objective interest in weakening the US presence in Iraq.
Assad thinks that he can help create a major Turkish-Iranian-Syrian alliance against the Kurds in Northern Iraq. And by the same logic, the Kurds, solid US allies, will be facing another formal ally of Washington on Iraqi soil: Turkey. The plan is to drag the Turkish Army (traditionally not inclined to find itself face to face with its major ally) to enter a territory where "terrorists are based," but where they could be indistinguishable from those Kurdish Peshmergas who are the backbone of the new post-Saddam Iraq. The rest can be guessed.
As the “axis” is using all its cards to crumble Iraq’s and Lebanon’s democracies, the Kurds in Northern Iraq should have acted quickly and strategically. There shouldn’t have been any PKK bases in their areas because these are a recipe for disaster.
The situation in Iraq as a whole is still complex, precarious and explosive, despite the advances made by the new US military plans, including the surge. The north must remain stable and secure and, above all, at peace with the only “NATO” border it has. The other frontiers Iraqi Kurdistan has are with the Pasdarans and the Syrian Baath. Both want the new Iraq’s head.
Instead of playing charms with Tehran and Damascus, the Kurdestan city of Soleimaniye must reinforce its own deterring force and maintain stability and peace on its northern border with Turkey. Knowing all too well that the new Islamist Government in Ankara is shifting the grounds inside the modernist Kemalist Republic, Iraq’s Kurdish leadership mustn’t offer any reason for a Turkish adventure in their areas.
Hence, it is recommended that the Kurdish leaders of Iraq be the ones to reign in the PKK to avoid having the Turkish Army crossing the borders. The US can – and should - broker arrangements between the Iraqi Kurds and the Turkish military to avoid the rise of an anti-Kurdish Triangle in the region.
# #
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Walid Phares is the director of Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy, and the author of The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy.
read full author bio here


The Risk of Waiting

Abdallah Iskandar
Al-Hayat
22/10/07//
Lebanon is at a decisive juncture that will determined its destiny, entity and regime. This is what everybody agrees upon in and outside Lebanon. There are two parallel lines, independent of each other, in the concept of a solution to the current crisis. There is a concept that is expressed by a fundamental force in the majority (especially Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea), and in the opposition (especially Hizbullah and the Aounist movement). This concept is based on the notion that a solution means leaving the juncture for a political situation that conforms to the specifications that each one of them devises for Lebanon. Therefore, the speech of each side seems to be in contradiction with the one issued by the other.
There is another concept that is expressed by a force that considers itself to be harmed by any situation that radically changes the current conditions. In its view the solution is a solution to the current crisis endured by the country rather than the parties. Therefore, it tries to focus on what can bring together, that is, a settlement that presupposes mutual concessions and retreats from definitive speeches.
It is very easy to adhere to fundamental positions. This does not cost any actual effort politically speaking. It responds to the wishes of a motivated public, because of instigation and mobilization. As for the settlement, it presupposes studying the givens of the country, including internal changes, and the givens of the crisis and its external dimensions. Therefore, it supposes that the concession is not a gift that is offered to the other party to extract special guarantees (and a share) from it, but rather the concession must respond to the profound meaning of the formula of coexistence among the sects and also among the political difference. The next situation will not be an image of a party wants, but rather a changed image. No particular party has the right to impose what it wants on the state and on the society.
Therefore, resolving the current dispute is the easiest part of dealing with the crisis. In this lies the difficulty in reaching a settlement: reaching the approach to the constitutional deadline for electing a new president without the appearance of that which indicates that the search aims at Lebanon's crisis. Rather, it aims only at how to extract the concession from the other side. Therefore the essence of the settlement is lost in technicalities and constitutional articles, to which a unified explanation will not be found, and the threats of the collapse of the structure.
Perhaps as a result of this fact, or this methodology on the part of Lebanese parties in dealing with the crisis, there are those who say, especially Arabs, that it is not possible to help the Lebanese if they do not want to help themselves, with the knowledge that there is an Arab decision to intervene in solving the Lebanese crisis, and not only assistance, on the part of the local and external parties. This decision has remained pending, despite two attempts that were undertaken by the secretary general of the Arab League. While waiting for the Lebanese to help themselves, the crisis is still turning in the same vicious circle.
However, there are those who cannot wait. Waiting means risking reaching the presidential deadline without a president, and the possibility of a vacuum in authority that is followed by a big split in the state. This is the essence of the mission of the three European ministers in Beirut. They came, perhaps in a last attempt to mediate between the Lebanese. However their fundamental objective is to maintain the unity of the state, which is the sole guarantee of their not becoming involved in an armed conflict in south Lebanon. The reinforced UNIFIL forces, of which most of their soldiers and equipment came from the countries of the three ministers. cannot operate without a unified Lebanese state, because their relationship is with the government, which will not be the source of one resolution in case of a vacuum. The rules of engagement of these forces permit them to resort to armed force in the event that their security is in danger. The vacuum in Lebanon, which will not be without effect upon its armed forces, may tempt all those who opposed Resolution 1701 by challenging UNIFIL and involving it in combat that the Europeans do not appear to be prepared to wage in south Lebanon.
The Lebanese and the Arabs are betting on time for a solution. However, the Europeans are the ones who may pay the price of this waiting. Perhaps the need to avoid the institutional vacuum is what is impelling them in this urgent way. They will not wait for their soldiers to be transformed into sharpshooting targets