LCCC ENGLISH NEWS BULLETIN
NOVEMBER 15/06
Biblical Reading For today
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 17,7-10.
Who among you would say to your servant who has just come in from plowing or tending sheep in the field, 'Come here immediately and take your place at table'? Would he not rather say to him, 'Prepare something for me to eat. Put on your apron and wait on me while I eat and drink. You may eat and drink when I am finished'? Is he grateful to that servant because he did what was commanded? So should it be with you. When you have done all you have been commanded, say, 'We are unprofitable servants; we have done what we were obliged to do.'"
Free Opinions & Studies
Lebanese politicians need to speak plainly about what they want -Daily Star 15.11.06
Elect Ghassan Tueni interim president- By Chibli Mallat 15.11.06
Latest New from the Daily Star for November 15/06
Annan vows to 'speed up' formation of Hariri court
Siniora vows to keep Cabinet afloat despite Hizbullah pressure
Israeli Foreign Ministry calls for curb on overfights
Probe of Israeli 'war crimes' moves at snail's pace
Fatfat tells gathering of Arab counterparts: 'Security' opens door to development
Qabbani insists Cabinet's move to adopt tribunal was 'legitimate'Salameh denies heavy pressure on pound
Starting all over again: Owner of ruined factory won't wait for the other proverbial shoe to drop
AUB readies for annual student pollsBlair tells key US panel to focus on Palestinian issue
Gunmen abduct dozens of Iraqi government employees
Latest New from miscellaneous sources for November 15/06Nasrallah Boycotts Cabinet, 'Clean Government' to be Restored-Naharnet
U.S. to Syria: Respect Beirut's Decision on Hariri Murder Court -Naharnet
Israeli Foreign Ministry Criticizes 'Unnecessary' Lebanon Overflights -Naharnet
Alliot-Marie: French Protest Stopped Mock Air Attacks on EU Troops -Naharnet
Lebanon PM rejects "tyranny of minority"Reuters
Lebanon crisis is foreign tug of war-Indian Express
Hezb'allah's End Game in Lebanon Taking Shape-American Thinker
Warfare school opens after Lebanon lesson-Independent Online
Israeli army to resume guerrilla training as lesson from Lebanon .International Herald Tribune
Syria ready for dialogue with US on Iraq-newspaper-Reuters
Peres: Israel lost deterrence in Lebanon-Israel Today
Hezbollah chief says Lebanon government "will go"-Reuters
Lebanon approves tribunal in Hariri slaying-Los Angeles Times
Iran should stop supporting terrorism in Lebanon, Iraq: Blair-The News
Israel opted for cheaper, unsafe cluster bombs in Lebanon war-Ha'aretz
Hizballah Plays Politics in Lebanon-TIME
Israeli Foreign Ministry critical of scope of Lebanon overflights-Calgary Sun
UK urges talks with Syria and Iran-The News
Report: Syria welcomes US overtures regarding Iraq-Jerusalem Post
Veering off the road to recovery-Guardian Unlimited
Dozens Are Kidnapped at Baghdad University-New York Times
In New Middle East, Tests for an Old Friendship-New York Times
Nasrallah Boycotts Cabinet, 'Clean Government' to be Restored
Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has boycotted Premier Fouad Saniora's cabinet following the resignation of six pro-Syrian ministers, vowing to re-establish a "clean government."
"This government will go and nothing associates us with it (government) after the resignations," Nasrallah late Monday told a crowd of about 6,000 residents who lost their homes in Beirut's southern suburbs during the destructive Israeli war on Lebanon over the summer.
He was referring to the resignation of the six ministers, five of them from Hizbullah and Amal, hours after the national dialogue collapsed on Saturday.
"This country is ours. We sacrificed tens of thousands of martyrs, wounded, prisoners and disabled for the sake of safeguarding it (Lebanon) as well as protecting its dignity and glory; and we will not give up (these sacrifices)," the daily As Safir quoted Nasrallah as saying.
Addressing the Lebanese, Nasrallah said that "the clean government is coming up."
Lebanon's political crisis has taken a sharp turn for the worse following the resignations over demands for a Hizbullah veto power in the executive authority, which were vehemently rejected by the anti-Syrian ruling majority.
Nasrallah's declaration came as the cabinet approved on Monday a U.N. draft text setting up an international tribunal to try the killers of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri despite the resignation of the ministers.
The leading daily An Nahar said Tuesday that the draft was sent back to the United Nations late Monday after being translated into English.
It said that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has promised Saniora in an overnight telephone call to work quickly in the Security Council to approve the document.
While Lahoud slammed the cabinet as no longer legitimate following the resignation, Speaker Nabih Berri said it was "constitutional as long as more than two thirds (of the ministers) remain in the government." The direct challenge from the anti-Syrian March 14 Forces that dominate the cabinet and the cabinet's endorsement of the U.N. draft statutes have deepened the political divide. The parliamentary majority has accused Hizbullah and the Amal movement, the main pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian Shiite groups, of doing Damascus's and Tehran's bidding and seeking to undermine the formation of the international tribunal. Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri directly accused Syria and Iran of seeking to scuttle the formation of the international court. Iran on Monday rejected Hariri's accusations that Tehran was trying to block international efforts to try those behind his father's murder.
There was no immediate reaction from Syria but it has denied previous claims that it was trying to topple the Lebanese government.
Hizbullah, which gained increasing political clout for its fierce fight against Israel during the July-August war, recently threatened to call mass protests with the aim of bringing down the government unless it received greater cabinet representation. Beirut, 14 Nov 06, 09:28
U.S. to Syria: Respect Beirut's Decision on Hariri Murder Court
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton has urged Syria to respect the Lebanese government's decision to endorse the creation of an international tribunal, despite the resignation of six pro-Syrian ministers.
Premier Fouad Saniora's cabinet on Monday unanimously approved the document to establish the court into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri."We are prepared to move quickly in the Security Council to approve the tribunal once we receive formal word from the government of Lebanon," U.S. spokesman Benjamin Chang quoted the U.S. envoy to the U.N. as saying.
"We call on all, especially Syria, to respect the Lebanese government's decision," Bolton was also quoted as saying.
The cabinet's approval came despite a government crisis sparked by the resignation of six ministers.
Saniora said the government approval was meant "to reject and confront attempts to assassinate Lebanon ... and to tell the criminals that we will not give up our right to achieve justice despite the difficulties."An ongoing U.N. probe has implicated senior officials from Syria, which for decades was Lebanon's power-broker, and also Lebanese accomplices. Damascus strongly denies any connection with the Hariri killing. In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the root of the political crisis brewing in Lebanon was because "some (people) are very, very nervous -- including in Damascus -- about where this tribunal issue is going to head." "I can't imagine, other than they're nervous about themselves ending up before this tribunal or their friends ending up before this tribunal, why they would want to stand in the way of finding out who was responsible for the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister," he said. When asked under what conditions the U.S. would want to talk to either Hamas or Hizbullah, McCormack said: "Certainly there's no change in our policy. We're not -- those two groups that you mentioned are terrorist groups in our view so we don't plan to have any contact with them."(AFP-Naharnet) (AP photo shows U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton waving to reporters) Beirut, 14 Nov 06, 07:45
Alliot-Marie: French Protest Stopped Mock Air Attacks on EU Troops
Israeli warplanes have stopped mock air attacks targeting European peacekeepers in Lebanon following a French government protest, French Defense Minister Michelle Alliot-Marie said Monday. "There is no more of that attitude -- that is, an openly hostile attitude -- like we had over a French vessel, a German vessel and the French ground forces, which caused a real danger of legitimate defense measures being taken," Alliot-Marie told reporters at an EU meeting in Brussels. Paris demanded that Israel stop the raids after French peacekeepers came within seconds of shooting down Israeli warplanes two weeks ago. Alliot-Marie said Israeli overflights of Lebanon were continuing in defiance of the United Nations, but said they were no longer taking a threatening approach to the peacekeepers. She repeated that French forces could have launched an "automatic defense reaction" after Israeli planes failed to identify themselves while flying mock bombing runs at peacekeepers. The commander of the French-led U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon said last week that such a scenario was avoided only because of restraint by French forces. "I call on Israel to end them," General Alain Pellegrini said of the overflights. "I have a hard time understanding them ... This is dangerous." The overflights "could give Hizbullah an occasion to react," Pellegrini was quoted as saying. Israeli officials said flights over Lebanon are needed to monitor Lebanese compliance with U.N. demands, and said they were working with the peacekeeping force to avoid misunderstandings.(AP-Naharnet) Beirut, 13 Nov 06, 17:25
Lebanon PM rejects "tyranny of minority"
By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent
Tue Nov 14, 2006 8:26am ET
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said on Tuesday he would try to keep his depleted government afloat and resist demands by Hezbollah and its allies that would amount to "tyranny of the minority".
Siniora, who has lost a quarter of his 24-member cabinet since Saturday, said he would pursue dialogue despite the collapse of all-party talks and Hezbollah threats of street protests to bring down the anti-Syrian majority government.
He told Reuters in an interview that the majority was ready to expand the cabinet, but demands by Hezbollah, backed by its Shi'ite Muslim ally Amal and Christian leader Michel Aoun, for more than a third of cabinet seats were unacceptable.
"They will become able to paralyze the meetings of the cabinet of ministers ... and have the ability to topple the government," Siniora said at his office in downtown Beirut.
"In a democracy, this is not possible," he said, noting the majority his coalition commands in parliament.
"The point that's being mentioned there is the tyranny of the minority, which by all democratic principles, does not stand," said Siniora, a Sunni Muslim.
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah told supporters on Monday that Siniora's Western-backed government had zero credibility and would soon be replaced by a "clean" cabinet. "This government will go," As-Safir daily quoted him as saying.
Hezbollah and its allies have been demanding a greater say in government decisions since the end of a July-August war with Israel in which the Shi'ite group claimed a "divine victory
Their Sunni, Druze and Christian foes, who accused them of sparking a ruinous and unnecessary conflict, fear that meeting their demands would drag Lebanon into a Syrian-Iranian orbit.
Hezbollah in turn accuses the anti-Syrian majority of serving the interests of the United States, if not Israel. It argues that in Lebanon's sectarian system all religious and political forces must be fairly represented in government.
OLIVE BRANCH
Siniora, who has rejected the six ministerial resignations, said his cabinet had taken all but one of its decisions by consensus not by vote for the past 15 months and was ready to discuss the concerns of the Shi'ite community.
"We are willing to sit down and talk about all your worries as representatives of the minority and see what can be done."
Siniora said street protests by Hezbollah could lead to counter-demonstrations in a contest Lebanon could do without.
"One should really ask how this would help Lebanon ... after 30 years of civil strife, confrontations, invasion, occupation and debt that has accumulated," the prime minister said.
Any such street action could jeopardize Lebanon's prospects of benefiting from an international conference in Paris scheduled for January to raise funds for postwar recovery. "If we miss this opportunity it will be very difficult to get a similar one in the future," Siniora said
He defended his decision to press ahead with a cabinet meeting on Monday which approved U.N.-drafted statutes for a special court to try the killers of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, despite the resignations of six ministers.Siniora said setting up the tribunal was a major plank in the government's program and there was no point in delaying action on a matter affecting Lebanon's security and stability.Siniora was a senior aide to Hariri before his assassination in a truck bomb attack blamed by many Lebanese on Syria -- which denied any hand in it. He became prime minister last year after the first election held after Syrian troops left Lebanon. "I will not lose hope," Siniora said, pledging to try to restore trust among Lebanon's rival communities. "We are going to live together and stay together. That's why we will have to find ways and means to answer the worries of each group."
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved
Israeli Army Resumes Guerrilla Training After Lebanon War
The Israeli military will restore its guerrilla warfare training center as a result of its experiences in the summer's war in Lebanon, according to a military publication, using a distinctly modern method -- paintball. The Israeli military closed down its guerrilla warfare training facility at the Elyakim base in Israel's north after Israeli forces pulled out of Lebanon in 2000, following an 18-year war against Hizbullah fighters. In the summer, Israeli soldiers encountered Hizbullah again, fighting a 34-day war that included ground operations through Hizbullah-controlled areas. The fighters exacted a heavy toll against the Israelis with ambushes, mortars and anti-tank missiles. The Israeli military has absorbed harsh criticism for the way it handled the war. Many soldiers, especially reservists, complained that their equipment and training were inadequate. While not admitting that the lack of guerrilla training was a factor in the shortcomings of the summer war, the military is planning to restart it, according to the current issue of the soldiers' weekly, "Bamahaneh." Soldiers will learn camouflage techniques, navigation by GPS satellite systems, construction of hidden outposts and other skills, the weekly said, and they will test their newly won abilities in paintball maneuvers. Lt. Col. Lior Lifshitz, commander of the Elyakim base, told the weekly that he hopes to set up a permanent paintball course at the base. The guerrilla training, on the other hand, would be taken to all the bases in the northern command area, with courses for both soldiers and officers. "Our goal is to establish a cycle, so that within two years officers would receive extensive training and soldiers some training," Lifshitz told the publication. The new center, which is to be operational within a few months, will also supply guerrilla warfare equipment to the various army units, the weekly reported.(AP) Beirut, 14 Nov 06, 10:19
Lebanon crisis is foreign tug of war
Associated PressPosted online: Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 0000 hrs Print Email
BEIRUT, November 13: AMID failed political talks, resignations of Cabinet ministers and threats of mass street protests, Lebanon finds itself in a tug-of-war between the United States and opponents Iran and Syria that could hold high stakes for both America’s democracy push and the Mideast’s future. The conflict centers on the militant Hizbollah group’s strong push to gain a larger political role in Lebanon. Coming nearly three months after the end of Hizbollah’s war with Israel, the demands by the Shi’ite group have many on edge.
The dispute pits Hizbollah and its allies in Lebanon’s government and its backers Syria and Iran against anti-Syrian members of Lebanon’s government who are allied with the United States and Europe. The divisions have become so deep that Hizbollah has given the mostly pro-Western government an ultimatum—either create a “national unity” Cabinet that gives Hizbollah a veto on key decisions or the Iranian-backed militants will seek to topple the government in street protests and work toward early elections. The country stumbled further into political crisis on Saturday when talks among rival groups collapsed after they failed to agree on Hizbollah’s demand for stronger political power through more Cabinet posts for its allies. The militant group responded hours later, withdrawing its two Cabinet ministers. Three Cabinet ministers from Hizbollah’s Shi’ite Muslim ally, the Amal party, also resigned. Prime Minister Fouad Saniora rejected the resignations. But in an indirect blow to the Western-backed Saniora, Lebanon’s pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud said on Sunday the resignations cost the Cabinet its legitimacy.
The White House and the European Union have come out strongly in favour of Saniora’s government, which is considered the most friendly to the United States in over two decades. The US has warned it thinks Lebanon’s government is at risk of being toppled. And some in the region sound the same sort of sharp warnings—saying that giving Hizbollah veto power in the Cabinet would consolidate Hizbollah’s power and consequently Syria’s and Iran’s.
Giving the guerrillas the ability to veto amounts “to completion of the takeover of the country,” another columnist, Ali Hamadeh, wrote in An-Nahar, which has taken a pro-government line.
Christian MP resigns
Beruit: Environment Minister Yaacoub Sarraf, a Christian allied with Hizbollah, resigned today, according to a statement carried by the official news agency, making him the sixth to quit and further cripple a divided Lebanese government. He joins five Shi’ite Muslim ministers of Hizbollah and Amal who quit Fouad Saniora’s cabinet on Saturday. —AP editor@expressindia.com
Hezb'allah's End Game in Lebanon Taking Shape
By: Rick Moran
November 14th, 2006
With the resignation of 5 Hezb’allah and Amal cabinet ministers following the breakdown of the National Dialogue talks last weekend, the tiny nation of Lebanon may be on a downward spiral toward civil strife or worse – a wave of violence that would threaten the stability and safety of the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.
It is impossible to overstate the danger to the fragile democratic coalition that took power with such high hopes in the summer of 2005 as a result of millions of ordinary Lebanese taking to the streets demanding an independent Lebanon free from Syrian control. But despite the removal of Syrian troops and the ouster of the hated Damascus-controlled Secret Police, the March 14th Forces have been unable to deal effectively with Syria’s armed proxy Hezb’allah, whose tentacles have now encircled the neck of the Lebanese government and have begun to squeeze.
Hezb’allah’s spiritual and political leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah seems to have played his cards perfectly. From making the decision to join the government rather than remain outside of it back in 2005 to his current power play against Siniora’s cabinet, Nasrallah has proven himself a canny politician with the instincts of a predator and the nerve of a riverboat gambler. And nowhere was his nerve on display more than last summer when he deliberately provoked the Israelis into a war that he guessed would do more damage to the fragile government of Lebanon than to his own armed militia of fanatical followers.
He guessed correctly.
While the Israelis tentatively attacked Hezb’allah positions on the border – positions long prepared to inflict maximum casualties on the Israeli Defense Forces – every day that Hezb’allah remained an effective fighting force was a victory for Nasrallah and his “resistance,” raising the level of popular support among ordinary Lebanese of all sects. Simply the act of starting the war made Nasrallah de facto head of government. His pronouncements during the conflict made it seem that he considered Prime Minister Siniora little more than an errand boy who, with his permission, could negotiate for prisoner exchanges but little else.
Siniora’s hands were tied. Faced with massive bombing of his country that was systematically destroying much of Lebanon’s infrastructure, and given that the Lebanese Army was virtually useless to resist Israeli forces, Siniora acquiesced in Nasrallah’s temporary ascendancy. The rest of the March 14th Forces were placed on the defensive as a result of the bombing and Israeli incursion. After some initial criticism of Nasrallah taking the country to war without the government’s approval, most coalition leaders remained relatively quiet, preferring to let events play themselves out.
Within weeks of the UN-brokered peace deal, Nasrallah began his play for power, starting with calls by his partner, ex-Prime Minister and head of the mostly Christian Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun, for a “government of national unity.” He accused the Siniora government of corruption and incompetence while calling for more Shia representation in the cabinet. Aoun, whose naked ambition to replace Syrian puppet President Emile Lahoud has driven him into his unlikely alliance with the Shias, has proven himself a thorn in the side of the March 14th forces ever since his return from exile in the days following the Syrian exit from Lebanon.
Throughout the fall, as tensions in the country rose, the March 14th Forces resisted calls for the National Dialogue to take up the issue of a unity government and Shia representation. In the end, it became apparent that the only way to head off civil strife was to convene a group of leaders from all parts of Lebanese society to determine if a compromise could be achieved. They sat down last week for talks in what was described as a “tense and cold” atmosphere.
Of course, Nasrallah was not looking for compromise. He was looking not only to expand Shia representation in the cabinet so that he had absolute veto power over actions taken by the majority March 14 Forces, but also to head off cabinet discussion of the formation of an International Tribunal to try the perpetrators of the assassination of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. That Tribunal will probably indict high level members of the Syrian government as well as several prominent Syrian allies in Lebanon.
For the majority’s part, they no more wanted Hezb’allah in the driver’s seat than Nasrallah wanted a political settlement. By offering to grant Hezb’allah their expanded cabinet representation, the March 14th Forces added a poison pill to the deal: the new Shia ministers would be forced to sign off on approval of the Tribunal.
That ended the National Dialogue and caused the resignation of the Hezb’allah and Amal ministers (as well as the pro-President Lahoud environmental minister). In a tactical move to buy time, Prime Minister Siniora has rejected the resignations out of hand and declared that the Shias were still members of the cabinet. Under Lebanese law, if one of the various sects removes themselves or is thrown out of the government, no major issues can be decided by the cabinet.
By rejecting the Shia resignations, Siniora is gambling that another round of talks will produce a compromise more palatable to the majority while heading off a possible civil war. And yesterday, his cabinet approved the UN Tribunal despite the absence of the Shia ministers. It is unclear at this point whether the cabinet’s actions have the force of law or not.
Nasrallah could probably care less if the cabinet’s actions were legal. He’s got what he wants; a cabinet crisis and fears of renewed civil war. He holds the whip hand on both counts and now must decide his next move. Does he allow the ministers to rejoin the cabinet with the proviso that discussion of the Tribunal is off the table? Or does he force the issue through street demonstrations that will almost certainly devolve into confrontations with armed militias opposed to him?
The answer is perhaps both. In a statement released yesterday, Hezb’allah announced that there would indeed be “peaceful” street demonstrations but that the “timing of the action had not been decided.” Nasrallah may want the political pressure to build on the March 14th Forces to see if they can be convinced to give him what he wants with no strings attached. At the same time, his threat to send his highly trained, fanatical militia into the streets could be seen as a powerful sign that his patience has its limits.
In fact, Nasrallah seems confident that he will get what he wants soon – one way or another.
“This government will go and nothing associates us with it (government) after the resignations,” Nasrallah late Monday told a crowd of about 6,000 residents who lost their homes in Beirut’s southern suburbs during the destructive Israeli war on Lebanon over the summer.
He was referring to the resignation of the six ministers, five of them from Hizbullah and Amal, hours after the national dialogue collapsed on Saturday.
“This country is ours. We sacrificed tens of thousands of martyrs, wounded, prisoners and disabled for the sake of safeguarding it (Lebanon) as well as protecting its dignity and glory; and we will not give up (these sacrifices),” the daily As Safir quoted Nasrallah as saying.
A key figure emerging in the crisis is Speaker Nabih Berri. Surprising some observers, Berri has called the cabinet’s approval of the Tribunal
“constitutional as long as more than two thirds (of the ministers) remain in the government.”
Whether this leaves the door open for genuine compromise could become clearer once Nasrallah makes his next move.
Speculation on what Masrallah’s next move might be has centered on the Parliament, where Nasrallah controls around 60 of the 128 member body. If, as some speculate, the next act in the crisis would be for Shia, Amal, and Free Patriotic Movement MP’s to resign from Parliament, the country would almost certainly be thrown into chaos. This would make it impossible for Siniora’s cabinet to maintain any semblance of legitimacy and calls for new elections would almost certainly be in the offing.
Mid-East expert Walid Phares plays out this scenario:
The next move is to have Hezbollah, Amal, and their allies in the Parliament also resign, thus creating “conditions” for what they will coin as new elections and a collapse of the cabinet. Most of these moves have already been accomplished or are on the eve of being implemented. The pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will declare the Government and the Parliament as “illegitimate,” and call for early legislative elections. The latter, if they take place will be under the smashing influence of Hezbollah’s weapons (a show of force was performed in the summer) and of the cohorts of militias and security agencies. Result: a pro-Syrian-Iranian majority in parliament, followed by the formation of an “axis” government in Lebanon. The rest is easy to predict: A terrorism victory.
What it comes down to is what has always been the greatest threat to Lebanon’s democracy: Hezb’allah and its guns. Failing to disarm the militia as they were required to do under UN Security Council resolution 1559, the March 14th Forces paid for their inability to rally enough popular support to suppress Hezb’allah, first with the Israeli War and now with an existential threat to a free and independent Lebanon. Perhaps it was inevitable given the enormous difficulty in governing a country so riven with factional and sectarian divisions. But history’s judgment will be no less severe if the small group of brave democrats cannot find a way to stop Nasrallah from carrying through his plans.
As for the United States, there is very little we can do to assist. Siniora is already battling charges that he is Washington’s stooge – charges that ring true with many ordinary Lebanese, thanks to effective Hezb’allah propaganda spewed forth from Al-Manar, the terrorist media organ in Lebanon. And as Dr. Phares points out, Nasrallah’s push for power has not taken place in a political vacuum; both he and his patrons in Tehran and Syria know how to read US election results:
The perceived results of the midterm elections in the U.S. were read as positive by Tehran and its allies, in the sense that it froze vigorous reactions by the U.S. against any Iranian-Syrian move in Lebanon via Hezbollah. The feelings in Tehran and Damascus, have been that if in the next weeks and months a “thrust” takes place in Lebanon to the advantage of the pro-Syrian camp, Washington will be in no position to react or counter. Ahmedinijad and Assad believe (or have been advised to believe) that “lobbies” are moving in Washington and Brussels to restrain any strong deterrence by the U.S. against the “axis.” The theory is that the Bush Administration is too busy “negotiating” with the new leadership in Congress to “dare” a mass move in the Middle East. The analysis also predicts that strong lobbies within the Democratic Party are now positioned to block any serious response to a change in geopolitics in Lebanon. It is believed that the window of opportunity won’t be too long before the Administration and the upcoming Congress “understands” the Tehran-Damascus maneuver and create a unified response. Thus, the expectation is that Hezbollah and its allies were told to achieve their goals before the end of the year, and before the new Congress begin business on the Hill.
Lebanon is entering a period of enormous tension and trial, the results being difficult to predict at this point. What seems clear is that the forces for freedom and independence are facing their greatest challenge and that the next few days and weeks will determine their fate and the fate of their tiny country for many years to come.
***Rick Moran is the proprietor of Rightwing Nuthouse and a frequent contributor to American Thinker.
Rick Moran
Syria ready for dialogue with US on Iraq-newspaper
14 Nov 2006 - Source: Reuters
Background
Iraq in turmoil
More DAMASCUS, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Syria welcomes the suggestion that the United States might seek its help to stabilise Iraq and is waiting to see whether Washington will open the way for talks with Damascus, a government daily said on Tuesday.
"Syria is ready for dialogue with the United States to achieve security and stability ... and extends its hands sincerely as always waiting for a response. The ball is in their court," an editorial in Tishreen said.
"Statements on the need for dialogue with Syria and how to start addressing the problems of the region as a whole are interesting," Tishreen said.
U.S. President George W. Bush has in the past refused to ask Iran and Syria to help end the insurgency in Iraq, but the recent Democrat capture of both U.S. houses of Congress in mid-term elections, largely because of voters' anger over the Iraq war, has led to signs of a change of course.
Senator Joseph Biden, a Democrat who is expected to head the Senate's Committee on Foreign Relations, said last week the United States should convene an international conference on Iraq with Syrian and Iranian participation.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Bush's main ally in Iraq, sent a senior adviser to meet President Bashar al-Assad last month and asked Syria to do more to help stop an alleged flow of weapons into Iraq across their long border.
In an annual foreign policy speech on Monday, Blair said that a "new partnership" was possible with Damascus and Tehran and urged the two countries to help stem the violence in Iraq and stabilise the situation there.
A U.S. bipartisan panel, the Iraq Study Group, is reviewing policy on Iraq and will report to Bush in about a month. Some of its members favour engaging with Iran and Syria over Iraq.
BROAD MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY
Blair, who is due to give evidence to the group on Tuesday, also called on Monday for a broad Middle East strategy, starting with a drive to tackle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Tishreen said in its editorial that Washington's latest veto of a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Israel for an attack that killed 19 civilians in Gaza did not bode well for a "constructive and objective" U.S. stance on regional issues.
Relations between Syria and the United States, bad for years, worsened after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that removed Saddam Hussein from power.
Syria called the invasion "armed robbery" and Washington accused Damascus of letting fighters and weapons cross the desert border to join the mounting anti-U.S. insurgency there.
Relations worsened sharply after the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's anti-Syrian ex-prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri. Syria, under massive international pressure over the killing, was forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after 29 years there.
Syria says a stable Iraq is in its national interest and has called on the Iraqi government to patrol its side of the border more effectively.
Around one million Iraqi refugees have fled to Syria since the U.S.-led invasion, driven out by sectarian killings as well as the insurgency.
Peres: Israel lost deterrence in Lebanon
Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres Spoke on Monday at the Jerusalem Economic Club and said that Israel lost some of its deterrent power during this summer’s war in Lebanon. Peres also said that the international community has no interest in an Iranian nuclear weapon. Even Russia is afraid of nuclear weapons in Iran. It could get to the hands of their enemies in Chechnya. Peres added the Chinese and Americans also fear a nuclear device falling in the hands of an irresponsible nation that supports terrorism. Peres also said that his office is encouraging teams to develop innovative systems to combat terrorism with modern weaponry.
Iran should stop supporting terrorism in Lebanon, Iraq: Blair
The News/LONDON: British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said that Iran should stop supporting terrorism in Lebanon or Iraq; they abide by, not flout, their international obligations. In a keynote speech in London, he said the three-year-old conflict -- in which US and British troops appear increasingly mired -- needs to be seen as part of a "whole Middle East" strategy. called for a change in strategy in violence-torn Iraq, in particular warning Iran to stop aiding insurgents there and elsewhere. In the wide-ranging address, he said a major part of the answer to the Iraq problem "lies not in Iraq itself but outside it, in the whole of the region where the same forces are at work." "Just as it is, in significant part, forces outside Iraq that are trying to create mayhem inside Iraq, so we have to have a strategy that pins them back, not only in Iraq but outside of it too ...
"This is what I call a 'whole Middle East' strategy," he said. Blair's speech came a day before he is due to give video-link evidence to the Iraq Study Group, the bipartisan panel led by former US secretary of state James Baker, which is looking at current coalition policy in Iraq.
The British leader's testimony to the panel will come a day after Bush's appearance before the experts on Monday.