For Immediate Release Lebanon

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 3/07

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 25,31-46. When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him, he will sit upon his glorious throne, and all the nations will be assembled before him. And he will separate them one from another, as a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats. He will place the sheep on his right and the goats on his left. Then the king will say to those on his right, 'Come, you who are blessed by my Father. Inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world. For I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me drink, a stranger and you welcomed me, naked and you clothed me, ill and you cared for me, in prison and you visited me.'
Then the righteous will answer him and say, 'Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you drink?
When did we see you a stranger and welcome you, or naked and clothe you? When did we see you ill or in prison, and visit you?' And the king will say to them in reply, 'Amen, I say to you, whatever you did for one of these least brothers of mine, you did for me.' Then he will say to those on his left, 'Depart from me, you accursed, into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels. For I was hungry and you gave me no food, I was thirsty and you gave me no drink, a stranger and you gave me no welcome, naked and you gave me no clothing, ill and in prison, and you did not care for me.' Then they will answer and say, 'Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or ill or in prison, and not minister to your needs?' He will answer them, 'Amen, I say to you, what you did not do for one of these least ones, you did not do for me.' And these will go off to eternal punishment, but the righteous to eternal life."

Releases. Reports & Opinions
Lebanon: Why is the Presidential Election Becoming Crucial? Amir Tahri Asharq Alawsat. November 2/07
Lebanon's leaders owe their people a lot more than mere talk.The Daily Star. November 2/07
Presidential Elections in Lebanon: Consensus or Conflagration?. By David Schenker. November 2/07

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for November 2/07
France, Syria in first high-level meet since 2005.Africasia
Shadow of the gun looms over Lebanon crisis.Reuters
Syria reportedly bans Mashaal from speaking to media.Jerusalem Post
Hariri, Aoun Brief Sfeir on Paris Talks.Naharnet

Rice Against 'Compromises' with OppositionNaharnet
Aoun, Hariri Achieved Breakthrough _ But Not All The W ay-Naharnet
Nasrallah: Hizbullah Is Stronger Than Befo re-Naharnet
Hariri, Aoun Reportedly Agreed on Grouping of Candidat es-Naharnet
Sfeir Will Not Acknowledge Two President s-Naharnet
Lebanese Army Shoots at Israeli Je ts-Naharnet
Hariri, Aoun Overcome Misunderstandings, Narrow G ap-Naharnet
Free Shiite Movement Criticizes Nasrall ah-Naharnet
Syria raises gasoline prices by 20 percent as oil soars on world ...International Herald Tribune
Ban report helps Beirut's case on Shebaa Farms
Aoun and Hariri promise more talks after 'progress' during tango in Paris
United for Lebanon League touts 'fair' electoral law
Mallat hails army chief's rejection of presidential bid
Army fires on Israeli jets violating Lebanese airspace. AFP
US interest in Lebanon at 'highest point in 25 years'
'Defusing crisis may not be in hands of Aoun, Hariri'
Merrill Lynch fears financial crisis if Lebanon fails to elect new president
Beirut's telecom regulator to set date for bids on sale of country's two cell-phone networks. AFP
Lebanese bankers imitate politicians with power struggle
Livni rejects timetable for peace deal.Daily Star
'Not worried:' Ahmadinejad scoffs at US sanctions threat.Daily Star
Pakistani strongman hosts Jordanian king.AFP

Sfeir Will Not Acknowledge Two Presidents
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir said he will only acknowledge a compromise President for Lebanon.
"In the event that two presidents were elected for Lebanon, they will not be legitimate," Sfeir said in an interview with the daily Al Akhbar.
Sfeir said that electing a president by simple majority will give an excuse to those who see the move as a violation to the constitution and, thus, will also want to breach the constitution and elect a president."In that case the outcome could be very harmful … and I will not acknowledge either president," Sfeir said.
Responding to a question on whether Sfeir has the intention to invite Maronite leaders to a joint conference, the Patriarch said: We will see if this is feasible," pointing out to the negative stances taken by some commands. Sfeir, however, expressed optimism and relief over progress made in the Paris meetings between Free Patriotic Movement chief Gen. Michel Aoun and parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri.
Businessman Joseph Ghassoub, a mutual friend who has mediated recent meetings between Aoun and former President Amin Gemayel, said after meeting Sfeir on Thursday that the Patriarch was "optimistic." Ghassoub said "positive feedback" Sfeir had received regarding talks among the rival Lebanese politicians has generated much reason for optimism. Gemayel praised the Aoun-Hariri talks as a "positive step" toward settling the presidential election dispute.
"The meeting between General Aoun and MP Hariri is a positive step that will reflect well on the internal political arena struggling to reach a consensus," Gemayel said.
"The Lebanese feel more relieved as more Lebanese leaders meet and reconnect," he added. Meanwhile, Hizbullah politburo member Mahmoud Qomati restated his party's stand that a "consensus president is the only and best solution" to end the crucial political crisis."If a president is elected by simple majority or if the country is run by the current government without a new president, either option will cause chaos and divide the country into two states and two governments," Qomati warned.
Beirut, 02 Nov 07, 09:13

Rice Against 'Compromises' with Opposition
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday warned against diplomatic moves to settle Lebanon's ongoing political crisis by compromising with the Syrian-backed opposition. "I think there is a lot of talk right now about compromise," she told journalists on a plane taking her to Ankara for talks with Turkish leaders on Kurdish rebels. "There are a lot of discussions going on. That is fine," she added before a stopover in Ireland.
"But any candidate for president or any president needs to be committed to Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, needs to be committed to resolutions that Lebanon has signed on to ... and needs to be committed to carrying on the tribunal." Rice was referring to the U.N.-backed international tribunal that was set up to prosecute those behind the murder of Rafik Hariri, a five-time prime minister who was killed along with 22 others in a massive Beirut explosion in February 2005.
She did not mention names, but her statement appeared to be a veiled reference to a meeting between Gen. Michel Aoun, who is the opposition standard-bearer in November 12 presidential elections, and parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri. Aoun and Hariri met in Paris on Wednesday and Thursday for their first talks since Lebanon's political crisis erupted in November last year.
The French foreign ministry said it was not involved in the talks but stressed that France "supports all efforts aimed at encouraging dialogue between the different parties in Lebanon." Fears are running high in Beirut that the standoff between the pro- and anti-Syrian camps could lead to two rival governments, a grim reminder of the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war when two administrations battled it out. Rice said she was going to discuss the issue with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in Turkey to send "the right message:
It is "that the March 14 majority should not be put in a position of having to accept either extra-constitutional measures or measures that would undermine the programme that they stand for." More than one million people protested at Syria's influence in Lebanese politics during a Beirut rally on March 14, 2005, a month after Rafik Hariri's assassination.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 02 Nov 07, 10:13

Aoun, Hariri Achieved Breakthrough _ But Not All The Way
Christian opposition chief Gen. Michel Aoun and rival parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri returned home after achieving a breakthrough in the political crisis, but not yet on the presidential election issue. The daily An Nahar reported from Paris that the two leaders have discussed in depth the Lebanon crisis from all its political, security and economic aspects. It said both leaders stressed the need to hold presidential election on time and without any foreign interference as well as setting up a free and modern state. Aoun and Hariri have come through in the Lebanon crisis, according to An Nahar, but not yet on the deadlock over electing a new president for Lebanon. The warring leaders headed home late Thursday for further negotiations after three rounds of talks in Paris.
Aoun, who is the opposition standard-bearer in the election, met twice on Wednesday and again on Thursday with Hariri for their first talks since Lebanon's political crisis broke out in November last year. "Meetings are going very well and will continue," Hariri told reporters before leaving Paris.
Hariri said that consensus on a presidential candidate will be discussed in "upcoming meetings." He said Thursday's talks focused on the Special International Tribunal for Lebanon that will try suspects in the assassination of his father, former Premier Rafik Hariri, and other related crimes. Hariri said he had asked for a "united national stance" from the opposition against the series of assassinations that have hit Lebanon over the past two years. Meanwhile, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said he was "happy with any meeting between the opposition and (government) loyalists," adding that he hoped talks between the rival political camps would lead to results. Beirut, 02 Nov 07, 06:35

Nasrallah: Hizbullah Is Stronger Than Before
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Hizbullah has grown stronger as Israel has weakened.
Nasrallah's comments came a day after U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a new report that said Israel claims that Hizbullah has rearmed with new long-range rockets capable of hitting Tel Aviv. "The resistance today is stronger than before and Israel is weaker," Nasrallah said through a giant screen.
"We don't want war with anyone, but at the same time, we will not allow anyone to attack our villages, people and country," Nasrallah told hundreds of supporters during the opening of an agricultural fair in Beirut's suburb of Rweis. Excerpts of his speech were aired on Al-Manar television during station's Thursday evening broadcast. His comments came ahead of a military exercise Israel has scheduled this week in the north near the Lebanese border. The exercise is slated to be the largest Israeli military maneuver since the monthlong war between Israel and Hizbullah last year.
On Wednesday, Ban's report said Israel claims Hizbullah has tripled its shore-to-sea C-802 missiles and has established an air defense unit armed with ground-to-air missiles. "Israel has stated that the nature and number of weapons in Hizbullah's control constitutes a strategic threat to its security and the safety of its citizens," Ban said. The U.N. Secretary General said he believed the reports of Hizbullah's rearming are a cause of great concern for the stability of Lebanon.
Nasrallah did not comment on Ban's report or give details on how Hizbullah has strengthened. Nasrallah warned that no one will be allowed "to stain Lebanon's lands, which will not be a land for Israeli occupation or American military bases." He was referring to a report published last month by the daily As-Safir in which it said Washington was proposing a treaty with Lebanon that would make it a strategic partner and lead to the creation of American bases in the country.
Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government and the U.S. embassy denied the report. Beirut, 02 Nov 07, 07:32

Candidates
The Central News Agency said Free Patriotic Movement chief Gen. Michel Aoun and parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri have agreed on grouping of presidential candidates.
It quoted a source in Paris as saying that the two rival leaders agreed to break down the presidential election list into four groupings such as:
1 – includes "declared" candidates from the pro- and anti-government camps.
2 – includes candidates accepted separately by the rival camps, but who could be vetoed by the higher-ranking leaders if not agreed on.
3 - includes "neutral" candidates without official backing from either camp.
4- includes Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman and Lebanese Bank Governor Riad Salameh.
The Agency said that Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir would not take any "concrete steps" before outcome of the Aoun-Hariri talks and a scheduled meeting between French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and his Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem in Istanbul on Friday. Beirut, 02 Nov 07, 09:47

Sfeir Will Not Acknowledge Two Presidents
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir said he will only acknowledge a compromise President for Lebanon.
"In the event that two presidents were elected for Lebanon, they will not be legitimate," Sfeir said in an interview with the daily Al Akhbar.
Sfeir said that electing a president by simple majority will give an excuse to those who see the move as a violation to the constitution and, thus, will also want to breach the constitution and elect a president. "In that case the outcome could be very harmful … and I will not acknowledge either president," Sfeir said.
Responding to a question on whether Sfeir has the intention to invite Maronite leaders to a joint conference, the Patriarch said: We will see if this is feasible," pointing out to the negative stances taken by some commands. Sfeir, however, expressed optimism and relief over progress made in the Paris meetings between Free Patriotic Movement chief Gen. Michel Aoun and parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri.
Businessman Joseph Ghassoub, a mutual friend who has mediated recent meetings between Aoun and former President Amin Gemayel, said after meeting Sfeir on Thursday that the Patriarch was "optimistic." Ghassoub said "positive feedback" Sfeir had received regarding talks among the rival Lebanese politicians has generated much reason for optimism. Gemayel praised the Aoun-Hariri talks as a "positive step" toward settling the presidential election dispute.
"The meeting between General Aoun and MP Hariri is a positive step that will reflect well on the internal political arena struggling to reach a consensus," Gemayel said.
"The Lebanese feel more relieved as more Lebanese leaders meet and reconnect," he added. Meanwhile, Hizbullah politburo member Mahmoud Qomati restated his party's stand that a "consensus president is the only and best solution" to end the crucial political crisis. "If a president is elected by simple majority or if the country is run by the current government without a new president, either option will cause chaos and divide the country into two states and two governments," Qomati warned.
Beirut, 02 Nov 07, 09:13

Lebanese Army Shoots at Israeli Jets
The Lebanese army opened fire on Thursday on Israeli warplanes violating southern Lebanese airspace, the military said. "Lebanese anti-aircraft units in the Tyre region fired at six Israeli military aircraft overflying the south," it said in a statement. On October 25 Lebanese troops also fired at two Israeli jets flying low over the south in the Marjayoun area. Such overflights are a violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought an end to the 34-day war between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah in August, 2006. The United Nations has called on Israel to stop violating Lebanese airspace. It says such overflights undermine the credibility of UN peacekeepers stationed in southern Lebanon and compromise efforts to stabilise the region.(AFP) Beirut, 01 Nov 07, 23:05

Free Shiite Movement Criticizes Nasrallah
Head of the Free Shiite Movement Sheikh Mohammed Hajj Hassan criticized Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for defending "criminal cliques and renowned Syrian intelligence agents."Hassan stressed the "need to exert efforts in order to establish a free state capable of extending authority over all its territories, end security centers and militia protectorate as well as monitoring the arms phenomena and the intimidations against the country's symbols."He called on "inclined Lebanese" to rid themselves of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Syria's former intelligence chief Rustom Ghazaleh. Hassan also warned against dragging Lebanon into a political vacuum or chaos. Beirut, 01 Nov 07, 17:16

'Defusing crisis may not be in hands of Aoun, Hariri'
Political analysts warn agreement on transitional government 'would only postpone problem'
By Hani M. Bathish
Daily Star staff
Friday, November 02, 2007
BEIRUT: Political analysts expressed mixed assessments of the meetings between parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri and Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun on Thursday. While some are optimistic that the two will hammer out a deal, others believe that the decision to defuse the crisis is not in their hands, but rests with their regional and international allies and patrons. Progress has been reported in Paris in terms of bringing viewpoints closer together and overcoming past misunderstandings. Reports also suggest that the two leaders have tackled major issues at length. In addition, the fact meetings are continuing is perceived as a good sign, as analysts stress that it is better for leaders to meet and talk than to boycott one another.
Political science professor Shafik Masri believes that both men will likely reach an understanding on a general framework for a solution without agreeing on specifics, which they will then present to their respective local and regional allies for approval and secure the blessings of Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir.
"The two men are not only negotiating over the name of the president, but on the appointments in the new Cabinet and the political program, otherwise how can Aoun be compensated?" Masri asked, adding that it was unlikely Aoun would be the next president. "Aoun will likely be compensated by being given Cabinet posts in the new government."
Masri said that in every step the two men take they keep their local and regional alliances in mind. "I take it for granted that Hariri in all his opinions is blessed by the Saudis, and Aoun, while representing a large Christian majority, will not undermine his alliance with Hizbullah," Masri said. He added that if their political allies do not like the deal they reach, neither Hariri nor Aoun would accept it or announce it. Masri said that both Sfeir and Speaker Nabih Berri are likely to be kept in the picture and Sfeir's blessing is vital if a deal is to be hammered out. "The other Christian parties may oppose a deal reached by Aoun with Hariri, unless the deal gets the blessing of the patriarch," Masri stressed. He added that the meetings between Aoun and Hariri must be conducted within the regional and international contexts and the flurry of diplomatic activity that preceded their talks.
Political analyst Simon Haddad doubts that the Paris talks tackled the root of the problem, only ways to postpone it until the next parliamentary polls in 2009. Haddad believes that it is unlikely that names of possible candidates for the presidency were discussed in the meetings, as Aoun's position on this matter is well known and fixed.
"The discussions probably focused on the shape of the next [cabinet]," Haddad said. "Some have said Aoun asked for a 50/50 split of ministerial appointments between the majority and opposition in a 24-minister cabinet."
He added that an agreement along these lines would usher in a transitional period, with a mixed Cabinet and a neutral president, until the next parliamentary polls in 2009, serving only to postpone the problem.
Haddad said some members of the ruling coalition were not happy with Hariri meeting Aoun, and that this was one of the reasons that prompted the majority leader to meet Aoun in Paris away from any political pressure from his allies. "If they agree, the presidential elections could happen at any time, but if they do not the March 14 Forces will still proceed to elect a president in Parliament with whatever number of MPs attend," Haddad said. "The majority will not allow a constitutional vacuum to emerge."Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, said the decision to defuse the political crisis is not in the hands of either Aoun or Hariri, but said their meeting was a very good step toward breaking the ice and is certainly better than having a boycott between the top political leaders.
"In the last 15 minutes it is difficult to eliminate the lack of trust between both sides; that needs a broader meeting to include other parties who are not represented and it would need a lot of preparation," Safa said. He added that the only way the talks between Hariri and Aoun would come out with a drastic solution is if one managed to convince the other of his point of view.

"The maximum outcome of the talks would likely be mutual appeasement," Safa said, adding that this would mean an agreement on a consensus president and government acceptable to both sides "that would postpone and manage the crisis rather than solve it or tackle the roots of the crisis."
He said major political forces from both the ruling coalition and opposition are not represented at the table, which they ought to be even if Hariri and Aoun are delegated to speak for their political allies.
Political science professor Selim al-Sayegh said bilateral meetings between rival politicians such as Aoun and Hariri could create a coupling of interests. "There is a belief that the cost of nonagreement is greater that the cost of any compromise," he said, adding it will soon be evident how free both sides are to decouple the local agenda from the regional and international one. Sayegh said that the dynamic of rapprochement between the two rival camps has its own momentum that is difficult to reverse or stop. He said the meetings between rival leaders could also help in the event the regional and international green light for consensus is not given and the Lebanese enter the damage-limitation phase.

Aoun and Hariri promise more talks after 'progress' during tango in Paris
'upcoming meetings' will focus on presidential candidates
By Rym Ghazal
Daily Star staff
Friday, November 02, 2007
BEIRUT: Hopes rose for an end to the power struggle in Lebanon on Thursday after two days of talks in Paris between parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri and the head of the opposition Reform and Change bloc, MP Michel Aoun. "Meetings are going very well and will continue," Hariri said before leaving the French capital after a third meeting with Aoun. Speaker Nabih Berri called Hariri while he was in Paris to inquire about the latest developments, as well as to mark the occasion of the birthday of the MP's father, slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri told reporters before leaving Paris that consensus on who will take over the presidency when incumbent Emile Lahoud's term ends on November 24 would continue to be a subject for "upcoming meetings." Thursday's talks, he added, focused on the international court that will try suspects in the assassinations of of his father and others.
Hariri said he had asked for a "united national stance" from the opposition against the series of assassinations that have plagued the country for much of the past two years. A joint statement released by Aoun and Hariri prior to Thursday's talks said they were focusing on finding solutions to the political deadlock that has paralyzed Lebanon for almost a year. The statement said the talks were characterized by "a high spirit of responsibility regarding the serious circumstances encountered by Lebanon at the political, security and economic levels."
"The talks tackled at length the major issues in Lebanon, particularly those related to setting up a free, independent and democratic state as well as facilitating the presidential election in line with the Lebanese Constitution and without any foreign interference," it added. The statement said "progress has been achieved in bringing disputed viewpoints closer together and [in] overcoming lots of misunderstandings." The two leaders "agreed to keep meeting to follow up on what has been agreed in the dialogue to re-establish stability and national unity."
The meetings were held in Paris in order to "avoid media pressure and security risks in
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Beirut," the statement added.
Sources in Bkirki told The Daily Star that Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir is "optimistic" and expressed relief over how the meetings in Paris progressed.
"There is dialogue, which breaks some of the deadlock, but there needs to be a solution at the end of these talks," the source quoted Sfeir as saying.
One of Sfeir's visitors on Thursday was businessman Joseph Ghassoub, a mutual friend who has mediated recent meetings between Aoun and former President Amin Gemayel - one of Hariri's key allies. Ghassoub confirmed the patriarch's optimism, telling reporters that Sfeir had received "positive feedback" concerning talks among various Lebanese politicians.
Gemayel also hailed the meetings as a "positive step" toward finding a solution to the feud over the presidency.
"The meeting between General Aoun and MP Hariri is a positive step that will reflect well on the internal political arena struggling to reach a consensus," he said. "The Lebanese feel more at ease as more Lebanese leaders meet and reconnect."
The former president also stressed the importance of the Aoun-Hariri talks building on other initiatives, including Sfeir's to bring opposition and loyalist Christian figures together and Berri's to build consensus on the presidency.
Political analyst and Gemayel adviser Salim Sayegh told The Daily Star Thursday that "Hariri sent an envoy to Gemayel, who informed him of the outcomes of the meeting with Aoun.""We support all meetings that strive to reach a solution and we hope it reaches the broadest possible consensus that can be reached," he added.
Also on Thursday, Hizbullah politburo member Mahmoud Qomati reiterated his party's stance that a "consensus president is the only and best solution" to the ongoing crisis. "If a president is elected by simple majority or if the country is run by the current government without a new president, either option will cause chaos and divide the country into two states and two governments," he warned.
The Central News Agency cited sources as saying that before taking any concrete steps, Sfeir is awaiting the outcomes of the Aoun-Hariri talks and of a meeting between French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and his Syrian counterpart, Walid al-Moallem, in Istanbul on Friday.
The agency also quoted a source in Paris who said that Aoun and Hariri had agreed to break down the current list of presidential candidates into four groupings.
One group includes the "official" candidates from both camps; the second includes candidates accepted separately by the opposition and the majority but who could be "vetoed" by the senior leaders if not agreed on; the third includes neutral candidates without official backing from either side; and the fourth includes two names: General Michel Suleiman, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh.

Presidential Elections in Lebanon: Consensus or Conflagration?
By David Schenker
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2675
November 1, 2007
On October 31, Saad Hariri, leader of the "March 14" majority bloc in the Lebanese parliament, met with opposition leader Michel Aoun, head of the Hizballah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the largest Maronite Christian party in Lebanon. Discussions focused on the September 25-November 25 presidential elections, which will decide whether Lebanon's next chief executive will align with the pro-Western, reform-minded March 14 coalition or follow the path of current president Emile Lahoud and align with Syria. Despite increasing pressures on the March 14 forces -- including an apparent Syrian-orchestrated assassination campaign -- a breakthrough agreement between the majority and the opposition remains unlikely. Meanwhile, Hizballah has warned the March 14 bloc that if it does not compromise on the choice of president, the opposition will adopt a "more direct" approach.
Background
In the aftermath of the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri, Syria was forced to withdraw its forces, and the March 14 bloc won the parliamentary elections and formed a government. The government coalition included Hizballah ministers, but differences quickly emerged, primarily over the prospective international tribunal to prosecute Hariri's killers. In November 2006, Hizballah's ministers essentially quit after Prime Minister Fouad Siniora requested UN assistance to establish the tribunal, and tensions have been high ever since.
The March 14 bloc states it has only two presidential candidates: former parliamentarian and one-time ambassador to the United States Nassib Lahoud, and current parliamentarian Boutros Harb. The opposition -- a coalition of Hizballah, Amal, and the FPM -- rejects both candidates. Although Hizballah has not yet articulated its favored candidate, Aoun -- whose coalition dominated the Maronite vote in 2005, winning twenty-two parliamentary seats -- has made it clear that no president other than himself would be acceptable.
Constitutional Issues
The confessional system in Lebanon mandates that the president be a Maronite Christian, but there are differing interpretations of what the constitution states regarding the election process. The parliament elects the president -- at issue is whether a two-thirds quorum is required to proceed with a vote if a president has not been elected ten days before the end of the previous president's term. The March 14 bloc argues that the quorum is not required; the opposition says it is. The interpretation is crucial because the majority currently holds just 68 of 127 seats. Lebanon lacks an independent supreme court to adjudicate these issues. The constitution originally established a "constitutional council" within parliament to "arbitrate conflicts that arise from parliamentary and presidential elections." But this council, which was never more than a consultative body, is now defunct.
Three articles of the constitution support the majority's interpretation of the quorum requirement. Article 34 states, "The Chamber is not validly constituted unless the majority of the total membership is present. Decisions are to be taken by a majority vote." According to Article 49(2), "The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient." And finally, Article 73 states that the parliament should be summoned by the Speaker one to two months before the president's term expires or, failing that, should meet "of its own accord on the tenth day preceding the expiration of the President's term of office."
Presently, the opposition is boycotting parliament to prevent the establishment of a quorum. Per Article 73, however, the legislature will automatically be called to session on November 15, obviating the quorum requirement and setting the stage for elections by an absolute majority.
Aoun and the Patriarch
Concerned about divisions in Lebanon's Christian community and the dilution of Christian political power, Maronite patriarch Boutros Sfeir has met with leading opposition figures from his community in recent weeks, including Aoun. During one such meeting, Sfeir encouraged an end to Maronite participation in the boycott. For his part, Aoun told the patriarch that the March 14 bloc's intention to elect a president by a strict majority constituted "a war on the Christians." Although discussions about compromise continue, Aoun does not appear to be interested in throwing his support behind another Christian candidate who might be more acceptable to the majority. As he told his party's Orange TV on October 8, "[A]ll the statistics have given me the upper hand, so why should I transfer the support of the people for someone else?"
Compromise Candidates and Scenarios
Interestingly, Hizballah -- which entered into a political alliance with Aoun in February 2006 -- has not been a vocal proponent of his presidential ambitions. Indeed, it seems likely that the group is considering other "compromise" candidates. Some of the leading contenders in this category include current Central Bank governor Riad Salemeh, former foreign minister Jean Obeid, current parliamentarian Robert Ghanem, and former parliamentarians Fares Boueiz and Pierre Dakkash.
Other so-called compromise candidates include Michel Edde, a former cabinet minister and self-professed expert on Jewish affairs. In one scenario, Edde, who is eighty years old, would step down from the six-year post after just two years, keeping Aoun's presidential hopes alive. Current Lebanese armed forces chief of staff Michel Suleiman is another much-discussed candidate. Although he may be acceptable to Syria and Hizballah, many in the March 14 bloc are wary of the prospect of yet another general in power. Leading March 14 personality and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has already told Suleiman that he would oppose his candidacy -- which would, in any event, require a constitutional amendment permitting an official of his seniority to stand for the presidency without the mandated two-year waiting period.
The Suleiman option could prove more appealing if the situation in Beirut degenerates, particularly if the majority elects a no-compromise president who is not recognized by the opposition. Should that happen, lame duck president Lahoud could conceivably appoint another government, leaving chaos in the wake of his departure. In this scenario, Suleiman might be seen as the sole means to avert civil war. Still another plausible scenario is that no election takes place. In that case, according to Article 62 of the constitution, the cabinet -- i.e., the March 14 coalition ministers led by Siniora -- would "exercise . . . the powers of the President."
Conclusion
Given the majority's antipathy for Aoun, Hizballah, and Syria, it is difficult to envision an acceptable compromise candidate emerging. Of course, if Saad Hariri decides to replace Siniora and become prime minister himself, the calculus could change. Hariri has said that he will not compromise, but his premiership would represent a shift from a technocratic to a political government. Should he pursue the office, Hariri may have to cede more cabinet seats to political enemies. He could also face increased pressures to compromise on the presidency.
Lebanon's majority government faces a Faustian choice. If it elects its president of choice, civil disobedience or a resumption of civil war might result. At the same time, a pro-Syrian "compromise" president could delay or derail the international Hariri tribunal, undermine government initiatives, and effectively end the Cedar Revolution. Regardless of what happens, March 14 parliamentarians are convinced that the Syrian campaign of assassinations will not end.
To date, other than repeated calls for noninterference by outside actors, Washington has not publicly weighed in on the elections. In August, President Bush signed an executive order blocking the property of persons undermining Lebanese sovereignty, a step that effectively dried up U.S.-based funding for Aoun. Other than that, the administration has taken few other measures to shore up its embattled allies. Regrettably, short of confronting Damascus, Washington's options are limited. Given the impending postelection crisis and the persistent threat to the pro-Western government, it is time for Washington to craft a policy that can help protect its allies. Given the March 14 bloc's attrition rate, it is unclear how many more crises it can endure.
***David Schenker is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute. From 2002 to 2006, he served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense as country director for Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories.

David Welch and Elliott Abrams arrive in Tel-Aviv to prepare next wars
Lebanese press focused today on the meeting between Michel Aoun and head of the Future Trend Saad Hariri, who discussed the presidential file, and political condition in Lebanon without issuing any statement.
The press added that the presidential candidate is waiting for a decision from Bkerki, which is the main reference for the sect of the expected president.
1 November 2007
An Event and a Regional Event
David Welch and Elliott Abrams will visit Israel today to prepare, as declared, for the Annapolis conference. The available political information refer to the failure of this conference due to the US and Israeli intransigence and to the US efforts, which aim at securing an Arab, and especially a Saudi participation in the conference and an acceptance for the rule of complete normalization with Israel apart from the result of the conference on the Palestinian track after the US and Tel Aviv have informed president Mahmud Abbas that they reject the idea of the timetable or any practical commitments that surpass the declaration of principles, which forms a ceiling, lower than the one rejected by the late president Yasser Arafat before.
The visit of the two US officials to Israel will deal with developing operations in Gaza and the West Bank against the resistance factions and tightening the international financial siege on Gaza. This requires more international arrangements, and fulfilling Israel’s wish to pressurize the Egyptian authority to participate in the collective punishment against the Strip. Some experts also believe that the visit aims at intelligence coordination with Israel concerning possible operations against Syria, Lebanon and Iran. The two sides may also discuss the Kurdish file and consider its reflections on Turkey’s stand and its alliances in the area in the shadow of the information about current US-Israeli projects to establish regional espionage and sabotage bases in north Iraq under the cover of the Kurdish issue.
An Event and a Lebanese Trend
Predictions and anticipations about the meeting between General Aoun and Saad Hariri have varied. The meeting jumped to the forefront of media and political attention, because it coincided with the meeting of the French envoy Jean-Claude Cousseran with the US assistant secretary of state David Welch in Paris to prepare for the Sarkozy-Bush meeting, which will take place a few days after Istanbul’s meetings and the date of the presidential elections session in Lebanon, scheduled for November 12.
The opposition considered the meeting an achievement that takes place within the framework of the opposition’s efforts to reach a solution. Some political sources linked al-Hariri’s response to Aoun’s invitation with hidden disputes, nurtured by the Americans who work to prevent al-Hariri from heading the cabinet, because the US wants Fouad al-Siniora to stay in power apart from the possible developments of the presidential merit. That is what the Americans said to head of the Future Bloc when he visited the states. This US instruction changed into a Saudi desire and into a final stand for al-Hariri’s loyal allies, especially Samir Geagea and Walid Jumblatt, who want al-Sanyurah to stay in power.
Loyal sources reject these information and deny any differences, describing these leaks as fabricated. But Lebanese press sources said that the statements of the minister Mohamed Safadi confirm this reality and the sources which depend on al-Hariri’s associates prove this also.
A parliamentary source called for not exaggerating any differences among the loyalists, because the US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman will have the final word in every detail. Therefore, the results of al-Hariri’s meeting with General Aoun will depend on this word, and it is well-known that al-Hariri gave up before pledges, commitments and agreements in accordance with Washington’s sign. He even was brave enough to obstruct a Saudi initiative through this sign.
Arab and International Press
The Emirate paper Al-Khaleej said in its editorial that sitting with the Israeli occupiers is normalization and the Palestinian authority knows very well that the Annapolis conference is arranged to secure Arab normalization with Israel. Arab and International Press Agencies said the Iranian file strongly entered the presidential race in the US and a democratic candidate has raised questions on the mental health of president Bush, because he said Iran’s nuclear ambitions may lead to a third world war.
Al- Bayan said in its editorial the Arab League conference on Darfur reflects the revival of Arab solidarity.
Al-Bayan said, in one of its articles, that many are pleased in the world because the neoconservatives are gone but Russia fears the return of the Democrats with their expansionist plans towards the east that may lead to a third world war, whose arena will be the Middle East.
The Emirate paper Al-Khaleej quoted diplomatic sources in Paris as saying that the media blackout that surrounded al-Hariri-Aoun meeting in Paris resulted from Lebanese and international reasons. The meeting does enjoy the support of all the Lebanese sides and there are disputes between France and the US.
Lebanese Press
An-Nahar said Aoun and Hariri agreed on conciliation while the presidential candidate waits for Bkerki’s decision. — As-Safir said al-Hariri and Aoun have agreed to avoid anarchy, pointing out that the US assistant secretary of state Nicholas Burns’s anti-Syria statements coincided with the majority forces’ campaign against this country.
Ad-Diyar said Damascus demands from Saad Hariri revealing his fabricated allegations.
Television Stations’ News in Lebanon
Al-Manar said Lebanon is waiting for Paris meetings’ results, pointing out that France and the US are preparing for the Sarkozy-Bush summit.
The NTV said that Paris meeting is between a national leader, who was always frank and another majority leader who is always colorful.
The NBN said the escalation of Geagea and Jumblatt was neither fruitful on the popular level nor on the political level.
The OTV (which is close to the National Liberal Trend) said all the capitals of the world are busy with the Lebanese file.
The LBC said that this stage is very critical and dangerous.
The Future said the UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon has called from New York for electing the a Lebanese president within the constitutional deadline.
Television Stations’ Interviews in Lebanon
The NBN
Program: Useful summary
Representative Sameer Al-Jeser said delaying the visit of the Iranian foreign minister Manushehr Motaki to Lebanon is not a positive indicator.

What is the use of history if we do not learn from our mistakes?
Amir Taheri - Asharq Alawsat
This is the question that ex-general Michel Aoun would do well to ponder as he is being positioned on the Lebanese chessboard as a pawn for the Islamic Republic’s regional power struggle against the United States.
Earlier this week, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dispatched his Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki to Damascus with a single message: Tehran wants Aoun and no one else as the next President of Lebanon. Believing that he is pushing the US into retreat across the chessboard, from Afghanistan to Iraq and passing by the Caspian Basin and e Levant, Ahmadinejad hopes that a spectacular success in Lebanon would enhance his own prospects for winning a majority in the Iranian general election next spring.
Ahmadinejad believes that his predecessors as president had vastly overestimated the power of the United States and based their policies on efforts to win Washington’s acceptance. He, on the other hand, is aiming at total victory; especially at a time that what he regards as a moribund Bush administration is under almost daily attack inside the US itself.
Ahmadinejad’s tough message came at a time that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was gearing himself for a compromise in which his Lebanese clients and allies would abandon Aoun in favor of a “candidate of consensus” as suggested by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
In Ahmadinejad’s analysis, Syria, now a virtual client state of the Islamic Republic, is trying to keep the option of switching sides open. One way to block that option is to commit Syria to a direct and clear confrontation with the United States and its Arab allies over who should be Lebanon’s next president. The man most likely to provoke such confrontation is Aoun whose election would amount to a clear defeat with the current Lebanese majority headed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and backed by the US and moderate Arab states.
“Our leadership wants Aoun, " Mottaki is reported to have told the Syrian president after talks with Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu’allim.
The idea is that Tehran not only wants to win in Lebanon but insists on inflicting the maximum humiliation on the American “Great Satan.”
But what should Aoun do?
The ex-general has already been there, done that and bought the T-shirt. In the late 1980s he became a pawn in another power struggle in Lebanon, at that time pitting Iraq baked by France against Syria backed by the Islamic Republic. I remember Francois Leotard, France’s Minister of Defence, praising Aoun as “a dedicated soldier defending Western civilization against barbarian mullahs of Tehran.”
By 1990 and after the Iraqi invasion and annexation of Kuwait, however, the label “barbarian” had been reassigned to Saddam Hussein, Aoun’s paymaster for almost a decade. Aoun had to scale down his declared ambition of liberating not only Damascus but also Tehran from their “oppressors” to focus on his attempt to secure a place of exile in France.
Suffering more than a decade of exile, the worst punishment for anyone with a minimum of patriotic sentiments, Aoun made no secret of his regret at having been drawn into a regional power struggle beyond his ken.
So, why is the ex-general letting himself be drawn into what looks like an almost exact repeat of the very same power struggle that led to his humiliation and exile?
One answer may be that Aoun thinks Ahmadinejad is stronger and wiser than Saddam Hussein and would not become involved in an open conflict with the United States. A clear Iranian win in Lebanon might force a weakened United States to scale down its regional ambitions and even revive the idea of a “Grand Bargain” with the mullahs under which the Islamic Republic will be assigned its own zone of influence in the Middle East. In such a case, Aoun could be secure in his position as President of Lebanon and trusted ally of Tehran’s clients in that country.
Another answer may lie in Aoun’s exaggerated estimation of his own genius for strategic double-crossing of friend and foe. He may think that, once he is settled at Babdaa Palace, the official residence of the Lebanese presidency, he would be able to distance himself from the Islamic Republic and move closer to the European Union and, why not, the US.
The way things are shaping up in Lebanon, the presidential election is assuming an importance far beyond its actual dimensions. It could end in four different ways.
First, Ahmadinejad wins by imposing Aoun.
Secondly, the US and its Arab allies succeed in imposing the choice of the pro-West majority.
Thirdly, the current parliament is prevented from electing anyone unless because it fails to come up with a quorum or because enough of the majority deputies are murdered to create a hung parliament.
Finally, the two rival camps, that is to say the majority and the Iran-backed opposition, agree on a consensus candidate and allow the system to continue functioning, albeit in a creaking manner.
It is obvious that only this last option could save Lebanon from becoming a battlefield for rival powers, yet again.
Aoun could help bring that option about. He could start by publicly ruling out his own candidacy, thus leaving Tehran with no obvious pawn to advance. By ruling out his own candidacy, Aoun will also strengthen Syria’s hand in negotiations with the Khomeinist regime in Tehran. President Assad, who is known to be averse to Aoun’s candidacy, would be able to insist on his favored policy of seeking a consensus candidate.
Aoun may have to anger Ahmadinejad. But he might reunite the Christian community, win kudos in Damascus and even improve his disastrous image in the West and among moderate Arab states. Apart from Ahmadinejad who thinks on a scale much gander than Aoun perceives, no one, not even President Assad, wants to risk a new civil war in Lebanon.
Ten years ago, speaking in exile, Aoun dreamt aloud of “another opportunity to serve Lebanon.” Well, history has offered him that opportunity. He could serve Lebanon by refusing to become an instrument of division and civil war used by a foreign power with ambitions hat have nothing to do with the interests of the Lebanese people.