LCCC NEWS BULLETIN MARCH 19/2006

LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
MARCH 19/2006

Below news from miscellaneous sources for 19/03/06
Al Qaeda in Lebanon-Asharq Alawsat
When "Lebanonization" Becomes a Positive Style of Change-Dar Al-Hayat
Mekdad Speech at UNSC Session-SANA
Hizbullah and the Western Role-Dar Al-Hayat
Security Council Briefed on Investigation of Hariri Assassination-NewsBlaze
Syria opposition forms united front to oust Assad -Times of Malta
Pro-Israel Lobby determines US Policy, says Harvard Study-International Middle East Media Center
Syria's opponents vows unity to oust Assad-Khaleej Times
Lebanon's pro-Syrian president vows to stay on-Reuters AlertNet

Lebanon's pro-Syrian president vows to stay on
18 Mar 2006 - BEIRUT, March 18 (Reuters) - Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said on Saturday he would not cave in to mounting pressure to resign and that the country's pro-Syrian Hizbollah guerrillas should keep their arms.
"I will not meet their demand and leave office. They can only oust me if the constitution states I am accused of treason or if I have violated the constitution, two things I have never committed," he said in advance excerpts of an interview to be aired on Al Jazeera television later on Saturday. Lahoud, a close ally of Damascus, has resisted calls from anti-Syrian politicians to step down, vowing to serve until the end of a term they say was extended by three years under pressure from Damascus in 2004.
Many Lebanese see Lahoud as the last vestige of Syrian tutelage over their country, which ended last year when Damascus withdrew its troops in the aftermath of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.
But fractious Lebanese politicians have been unable to agree on a replacement and removing the president would require at least a two-thirds majority in Lebanon's 128-member parliament.
Lahoud said most of the politicians who were now demanding his resignation had spent their careers in the Syrian camp, and challenged them to hold new elections if they were confident of keeping a parliamentary majority they won last summer.
"If they do not fear anything let them call for early elections and let the new deputies elect their new president. Or if they want, let them hold a referendum and see who the people would choose as their new president," he said.
Lebanese leaders are holding a "national dialogue" to try to end a political crisis paralysing the country but have been unable to agree on the fate of Lahoud and what to do about a U.N. Security Council resolution demanding Hizbollah disarms.
Some Lebanese say it is time Hizbollah, whose guerrilla attacks were crucial in ending the 22-year Israeli occupation of south Lebanon in 2000, laid down its arms and stuck to politics. Hizbollah has vowed to keep its arms as a deterrent against Israel and until the Shebaa Farms, a strip on the border between Lebanon, Israel and Syria's Golan Heights, is liberated. The United Nations considers Shebaa Farms Syrian soil seized by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war but Lebanon considers it still-occupied Lebanese land. "The weapons of the resistance should exist until the Arab-Israeli conflict comes to an end and the Palestinians return to their homeland," Lahoud said.

Al Qaeda in Lebanon
18/03/2006-By Thair Abbas
Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat- Worrying signs emerging from Lebanon about the growth of al Qaeda, have triggered a general unease and anxiety in security and diplomatic circles. The wave of bombings that targeted Beirut and the South and the arrest for several cells whose members have confessed to belonging to al Qaeda, in addition to Abu Musab al Zarqawi claiming responsibility for an attack on Israeli settlements using Katyusha rockets, have all heightened the fear that al Qaeda is seeking a permanent base in Lebanon. Ahmad Fatfat, the Interior Minister, said he had "impressions" that al Qaeda was seeking to increase its activity in Lebanon. Leading figures in the March 14 coalition went as far as speaking about training camps in northern Lebanon for Sunni militants.
Security sources have indicated that a number of extremists, Lebanese and Palestinian, who left for Iraq a few months ago to join the insurgency and fight against the Americans, have returned after strengthening their ties with main leaders in al Qaeda. These militants might have even received orders to return to Lebanon to engage in jihad and form a key base for al Qaeda as a basis for "al Qaeda in Bilad al Sham" (al Qaeda in Syria). These sources stressed that extremists were inclined to announce the creation of "Wilayat Lubnan" or the province of Lebanon, with members drawn from several Islamist fundamentalist organizations. The security forces' recent announcement that they had discovered a militant cell with 13 members from different nationalities, including Lebanese, supports this view. In addition, the role of these extremist groups in mobilizing Ahmad Abu Adas remains to be unclear. He appeared in a video recording and claimed responsibility for the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in a huge explosion on 14 February 2005.
As the Interior Minister and the authorities continue to claim that they have no reliable information about the growth of al Qaeda in Lebanon, experts have derided their remarks because "there is no ground for such a movement to grow" in multi-confessional Lebanon. They also point out that Hezbollah would not allow these groups to gain a foothold in Lebanon. Instead, they accuse Syria of exploiting this "fundamentalist front" which it once controlled through its presence in Lebanon.
Western diplomats have been observing al Qaeda's activities in Lebanon with serious attention. Sources told Asharq al Awsat the US has asked Beirut, as well as other capitals, to keep a tight rein on the movement of individuals across its borders but denied that it had offered the Lebanese authorities electronic tools to monitor the crossings.
In a report, parts of which were seen by Asharq al Awsat, a western embassy in Beirut indicated, "groups [were] sending fighters to Iraq from the Palestinian refugee camps and elsewhere" across Lebanon. It warned against the dangers of "these groups becoming loose in Lebanon", adding "It is difficult to believe that the Syrians were unaware of the activities of these groups, especially as some of them were very close to the Syrian intelligence headquarters in Anjar." The report also revealed that "Syria allowed these groups more freedom that they would enjoy in the country itself, fearing they would be exploited to "destabilize the region."
Dr. Radwan al Sayyid, professor of Islamic Studies at the Lebanese University, rejected the premise al Qaeda was active in Lebanon because Hezbollah would stand in its way. In Lebanon, he said, "We have Palestinian and Lebanese extremists and fundamentalist militants some referred to as Salafi, which espouse violence. They are divided into two groups: The first group is disorganized and its members have, for the most part, been caught and are currently languishing in Lebanese jails because they do not cooperate with the authorities. The second is under the control of Syria's security services and it is exploiting it according to its wishes. Its members are dormant and do not act unless they are ordered to do so by Syria."
However, four months ago, a new leadership emerged, "under the leadership of the head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine- General Command Ahmad Jibril in support for the Syrian security forces under the banner of "al Qaeda". They include many Arabs who came in their thousands to Syria to cross illegally into Iraq. Starting six months ago, none of them have crossed the border. Those who insist on joining the insurgency clash with the Syrian security forces. They are the ones Syria publicly announces."
"I do not believe there is such a thing called al Qaeda. What I see is the naming of Syria's intelligence services and those working with them, including some who are being naively exploited. There is a minority that is politicized and they are not unequivocally Salafis, including Hashim Minqarah who belonged to Harakat al Tawhid and was detained by the Syrians in 1985 and released in 2000 after the intervention of former Prime Minister Najib Mikati. These individuals where chased by the Lebanese and Syrian authorities and then exploited for their own benefit."
According to al Sayyid, no more than 500 Lebanese are currently cooperating with the Syrian forces, in addition to several Palestinians who he described as "enthusiastic young men who support Osama bin Laden". Al Qaeda, he said, had two main goals: a tactical aim, which is to cause trouble for the Americans and a strategic aim, which is to establish an Islamic state. In light of this, it would not be able to succeed in Lebanon "because it cannot achieve a certain reputation unless it fights Israel. This is impossible and it appears that it does not even have the intention to attack Israel." He described the current developments as the acts of a number of enthusiastic men and a general atmosphere controlled by the Syrians.
Home to some 80 thousand Palestinian refugees, the Ain al Hilweh camp, on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, lies outside the control of the Lebanese government. According to media reports, it is the main center for al Qaeda in Lebanon, with the extremist Asbat al Ansar (the League of Partisans) group joining forces with al Qaeda. It is certain that this group is the main source of Palestinian fighters in Iraq but it has yet to pledge publicly allegiance to al Qaeda, perhaps because it does not want to embarrass other Palestinian factions. Its statements announce the deaths of fighters in Iraq and the muezzins around the camp have "celebrated" the announcements of fallen fighters in Iraq.
Inside Ain al Hilweh, one clearly notices the presence of an Islamist current sympathetic to the Iraqi insurgency. Some vendors hang the portraits of the deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in their shops publicly announce their allegiance to "Sheikh Osama", or Osama bin Laden, whom they see as a "great Islamic leader". The internet is the main communication tool between al Qaeda and affiliates. Visitors to certain Islamist websites can see pictures of "the martyrs of the camp" prominently displayed.
When Ziad al Jarrah was named as one of the September 11 2001 hijackers, his family who live in the western Bekaa valley, refused to believe he was guilty and, instead, accused the CIA of drumming up charges against him. In the wake of the attacks, politicians and the inhabitants of the region adopted a unified position and denied any links between Ziad and al Qaeda. However, unanimous tip offs to the media painted a different picture: Ziad has traveled to Afghanistan from where he returned a different person. A number of stories later emerged about the popular support al Qaeda was said to be enjoying in the area.
The first real discussion of the presence of Islamist extremists in Lebanon with foreign ties took place in 1998 when unknown assailants murdered 4 Lebanese judges in Sidon. In 2000, the army clashed with Islamist militants in al Dinniyah, east of Tripoli in north Lebanon. Afterwards, the star of Abu Mihjin, founder of Asbat al Ansar, rose quickly. He mysteriously disappeared from Ain al Hilweh and it was claimed he had moved to Iraq, prior to the US led invasion in 2003, to join al Qaeda in Iraq. His group continues to send fighters to join the insurgency against what they refer to as "the Crusaders and the rejectionists". In 2003, a militant cell, which planned to bomb and target foreign embassies across Lebanon and to train men to send them to Iraq through Syria was uncovered. Lately, it was announced that two new cells with links to al Qaeda were discovered in Beirut and Sidon.

When "Lebanonization" Becomes a Positive Style of Change
Raghida Dergham Al-Hayat - 18/03/06//
NEW YORK - The geopolitical reshuffling that is taking place in the Gulf and Middle East at the level of Great Powers will not end in a few days or weeks, but is likely to take months and years. All of the top issues have become more complicated and also more interconnected in some cases. However, oil remains the most important engine of the Sino-Russian relationship with Iran and the basic foundation of US policy toward the region. Tehran takes itself most seriously in the relations of the big players for petroleum-related considerations and is determined to benefit as much as possible in order to achieve its dream of becoming a regional superpower and dominate the Arab region. The Arabs are fearful and confused as they anticipate Iranian moves and international efforts to contain the nuclear crisis. Some Arab countries are trying to influence Iran through appeasement and offering services to it, and others are trying to open a dialogue of give and take with the Islamic Republic. There are some who understand completely well what Iranian regional aspirations are and also understand how the US war in Iraq brought benefits to Iran and to Arab regimes.
One aspect of the huge damage caused by the US war in Iraq is the appearance of a formula (in people's minds) that associates the elimination of authoritarian regimes with the outbreak of chaos, fragmentation and civil war in the country in question. The failure of the so-called Iraqi model as a means of transition from tyranny to freedom, and from dictatorship to democracy, has demolished not only US aspirations but also the hopes for change by some in the region. The US war in Iraq has become a nightmare that prevents people from acting for themselves and increases their frustration and surrender to the dictates of these regimes. Worse, there is a fear of a fate like Iraq's - this is an incentive to retain these regimes as a type of safety valve, even if they are corrupt and exercise repression and humiliation against their peoples. The exception is Lebanon, where according to all of the criteria involved, the experience has run counter to the Iraqi example - beginning with the matter of occupation.
Lebanon was liberated from occupation; the country continues to fight its ramifications and attempts to revive the occupation via pro-Damascus groups, and especially the Palestinian factions, which insist on having weapons outside the country's Palestinian refugee camps. Hizbullah is acting like a state within a state, holding on to its weapons. However, it is not engaging in occupation, since it is a Lebanese party, not a foreign one. Thus, the difference between the Lebanese and Iraqi experiences is that the current crisis in Iraq resulted from the US occupation of Iraq and the "Arab" occupation, as represented by the terrorist forces, both of the Zarqawi and bin Laden type, that wear the mask of resistance to the occupation. There is an Iraqi resistance to the US occupation and there is also Arab and non-Arab terror that is using the Iraqi resistance for its own private ends. Therefore, the calamities of Iraq have come from outside, and did not spring from within.
This doesn't deny the fact that bringing down Iraqi President Saddam Hussein carried out a popular Iraqi desire to rid the country of the tyrannical regime that brought misery to the Iraqi people, a task that might not have been possible with US military operations.
The fundamental problem in Arab societies lies in their lacking self-confidence to effect change in regimes from within. Therefore, these societies kneel before the power of regimes that they hate and dream of foreign intervention as a type of salvation.
The failure of the Iraqi experiment has spread fear in people's hearts because the alternative to the current situation, if it comes to resemble Iraq, is rejected and unlikely at the present time. But Arab peoples that want and fear change are missing the fact that Iraqization is not always the only alternative available; "neo-Lebanonization" provides a positive model that can be followed.
In the past, Lebanonization meant civil war, and random killing based on one's sect and religion. It used to mean seeing a country turn into an arena that attracted neighboring countries that confronted each other on its territory. Lebanon was a testing-ground for the margins of democracy that were desired in the Arab world, and a proxy battlefield for Syria and Israel.
Today, Lebanonization means a demonstration by one million people to effect change from within, with help from the outside world. If the Lebanese people had not chanted in support of an exit by Syrian forces, they would continue to rule Lebanon and the Lebanese. Today, Lebanonization means cooperation between those inside and outside the country, such as the UN Security Council and its resolutions, is a useful exercise. Emile Lahoud, the President of the Republic whose term Syria extended by force, has become a president with no credibility. His international reputation is stained because he remains in office even though the popular majority wants him out. A merger of popular demands and international resolutions will force him out of Baabda Palace.
The same is true for Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias. Despite Syrian efforts to strengthen Palestinian militias and all of Iran's efforts to finance the military infrastructure of Hizbullah, the commitment by the Security Council members to implement Resolution 1559 will force Damascus and Tehran to reconsider the situation.
It might not be easy, and the interconnection of various issues renders it truly complicated. But this doesn't deny the fact that it's extremely difficult for any member of the Security Council to avoid what UN Resolution 1559 demands in the way of dismantling Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias. This will prompt states friendly to Damascus and Tehran to give them good-intentioned advice. If they don't, these states - with Russia leading the way - will face accusations of obstructing UN resolutions adopted based on Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter.
This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brought up the issue of Syrian cooperation with Security Council resolutions with his Syrian counterpart, Walid Moallem. Lavrov and Moallem discussed the Shebaa Farms, which fall in Syrian territory according the Blue Line (of Israel's withdrawal of Lebanon in 2000) that Russia approved in the Security Council. Damascus says that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese, supporting the "logic of resistance" that, in its view, justifies Hizbullah's retaining its weapons against the Israeli occupation of the Shebaa Farms. The UN says that the farms are Lebanese, according to maps it possesses.
Terje Roed-Larsen, the Secretary General's special Envoy for the implementation of Resolution 1559, was tasked by Kofi Annan in 2000 with the implementation of Resolution 425, which demanded an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. Israel agreed to implement the resolution after it had opposed it for years, and after the Lebanese resistance made Israel pay a high price to continue its occupation of south Lebanon. Larsen was the author of the Blue Line, which is sometimes known as "Larsen's Line," a line of withdrawal that was arrived at after surveying the land by experts relying on more than 80 detailed maps that all showed the Shebaa Farms to be Syrian, with the exception of one map that that was confirmed to be a forgery.
Larsen met secretly with Moallem in Moscow; some sources described the meeting as positive while others maintained that no progress had been made on the Shebaa Farms and weapons outside the camps.
Larsen will head to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan before visiting Lebanon for several days. This Arab itinerary is very important, especially with increasing talk of "deals" and "bargaining" for the sake of stability in these regimes, avoiding the Iraqization of Syria, and seeing events in Lebanon cool down. Some Arab efforts are being made to mediate between Lebanon and Syria and some of them are aimed at protecting the Syrian regime for being held accountable for its involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 21 other people, along with 14 other incidents that led to the assassination or attempted assassination of political figures and members of the media, which involve some type of connection.
Arab figures involved in the mediation efforts point out, when explaining why they are committed to the survival of the Syrian regime, that Israel doesn't want regime change in Damascus, and that most pro-Israel American Jewish organizations are now in the forefront of those opposing regime change in Syria, since the country doesn't threaten Israel and has not entered a confrontation with the Jewish state. Also, any alternative to the regime could bring unwelcome surprises. Here we see an interesting common denominator between those Arabs who fear regime change (both peoples and governments) afraid of the Iraqi model, and those who don't want change because change could threaten Israel.
The matter becomes more complicated with the Iranian element entering the mix. If the US is experiencing a type of dispute with Israel over the regime in Damascus, the American-Israeli intersection and disparity toward Iran are worthy of notice for several reasons. There are contradictory signals coming from Iran, meaning there is increasing talk of deals springing from the traditional relationship of compromise between Iran, on the one hand, and Israel and the US on the other. However, this talk is confronted by talk, with the same amount of momentum, of American and Israeli determination to "clip Iran's wings" militarily, since they certainly reject Tehran's possession of nuclear weapons. One side predicts a military strike and the other totally rules it out, increasing confusion over the consequences of the conflicting signals coming from Tehran. In any case, there is a common denominator based on taking Iran very seriously.
Meanwhile, in the Security Council, there is a focus on preventing nuclear proliferation and a dispute between the US, Britain and France, on the one side, and Russia and China, on the other, about the place in which the Iranian nuclear issue will be discussed from now on. Russia and China want to return to Vienna, while the three western powers won't give up the card of keeping talks in New York, where the Security Council is, along with the threat of sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and the possibility of bilateral deals.
Thus, in the Security Council, the scene of multilateral diplomacy, bargaining can take place, but of a different kind than in which the region's states are engaged. The Security Council has issued binding resolutions on Lebanon, which have a direct Iranian and Syrian dimension, and are also related to long-term regional aspirations.
Some of these resolutions go beyond any strategy drawn up on the desks of strategic planners. The most important is connected to the investigation into the terrorist act that took the life of PM Rafik Hariri; this investigation is now headed by Serge Brammertz, who took the place of German magistrate Detlev Mehlis.
At the end of the investigation, if Brammertz puts together a case that can be proven in court to show Syrian involvement in PM Hariri's assassination and other incidents, neither Russia nor China, nor Iran, nor any other country, will be able to provide cover for Damascus or make deals at the expense of the investigation and the trial.
Brammertz appears to be a boring individual, due to his conservative style and categorical refusal to reveal names and provide exciting headlines in his report. But a careful reading of the first report and the transitional report, which Brammertz submitted to the Security Council now show that the man is acting like a public prosecutor and is readying a case for a tribunal with an international character, not in the Security Council. Brammertz is building on what Mehlis found; he knows the truth and is preparing to uncover it in the Security Council, where a guilty verdict has no consequences, in the courts, which is more dangerous. Lebanon might be the very weak link in the region's geo-political reshuffling, but is a candidate to become the strongest link in the hoped-for regional model. The Lebanonization that is coming as part of a unique, international drive of renewal; it would be a mistake to submit to the pessimism of Iraqization, since Lebanonization is bringing the region good surprises.

Mekdad Speech at UNSC Session
Saturday, March 18, 2006 - 12:30 PM
Following is the text of Deputy Foreign Minister Dr. Faisal Mekdad speech at the UNSC session on Thursday to discuss report of the UN Chief of international probe Serge Brammertz into the killing of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri :
NEW YORK, (SANA) I welcome the presence of Mr. Serge Brammertz Commissioner of the United Nations International Independent Investigation Committee UNIIIC to present his report . We take note of the contents of the report and its references to Syria’ s efforts to cooperate with the commission in the period under review . I wish to reiterate the assurance of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic that it will continue its cooperation with the investigation commission, since we are keen on revealing the truth behind the late former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The report before the council moves the investigation of the criminal assassination of Mr. Hariri to a new stage, and we hope that this phase will help identify the parties responsible for that crime, as well as for other crimes that occurred in Lebanon. In this regard, we would like to reiterate what we have said on previous occasions, that the most dangerous thing the investigation has faced is the fact that some parties have encroached upon the investigation with a view to reaching preconceived, unsubstantiated evidence. Permit me to touch briefly on the report before the council. I wish to make some general observations on it, without delving into substantive details, so as to avoid prejudicing the character of the investigation, which we hope will be impartial, objective, independent and free of political interference .
First, the report refers to the joint understandings between Syria and the investigation Commission on the legal framework and practical cooperation machinery between the two sides in the framework of Syria’ s response to the commission’s requests for assistance. We would like to stress that such joint understandings take into consideration Syrian legal and judiciary jurisdiction and observe the requirements of national sovereignty.
Secondly, Syria has cooperated continuously and completely with the commission since it began its work. In this connection, the special judiciary Commission set up in Syria is ready to cooperate with the international Commission and to respond to all requests presented by it. Syria is of the view that the ability of the Syrian judiciary Commission to respond to the requests for assistance depends to a great extent on the clarity and accuracy of the request from UNIIIC and on the need for information relating to some aspects of the investigation concerning Syria.
Thirdly, the report refers to cooperation between Syria and the Commission in terms of Syria’s response to the requests made by the Commission in submitting information and documents. We would like to emphasize before this council that Syria continues to make efforts in this connection. Fourthly, it has become that a number of the witnesses appearing before the Co0mmission made false allegations in order to mislead the investigation and lead it to conclusions based on known political bases. We hope that the Commission will avoid any such tendency under the new leadership .
Fifthly, we hope that the Commission will follow the new leads referred to in the current report. We would like to emphasize that Council resolution 1595 (2005) calls upon all states to cooperate with the Commission to help identify the truth regarding the assassination of the late Rafik Hariri.
Sixthly, we note with satisfaction that the confidentiality of the investigation has been handled very professionally. We welcome this, and we emphasize the need for this professionalism to continue.
In conclusion, we would like to draw the attention of the Security Council to the gravity of attempts by some circles to utilize the cooperation between Syria and UNIIIC to abuse Syria’ s intentions in order to achieve special goals. We would like to state that our cooperation is based on revealing the unassailable truth, this being part and parcel of our interests.

Hizbullah and the Western Role
Walid Choucair Al-Hayat - 18/03/06//
Lebanon is currently witnessing a broad debate over Hizbollah's aptitude to adapt to the new developments, requiring some amendments in the orientation, especially in light of UN Security Council resolution 1559 and the major political mutations triggered by the assassination of Martyr Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and the ongoing ramifications of the crime.
Last August 2005, in the framework of a dialogue meant to determine to what extent the party was liable to open up to the West and to monitor its aptitude to adapt to the new political developments, a European ambassador, whose country has maintained its contacts with the party's leadership, declared that Hizbullah was slow in amending some aspects of its general policy. This slackness is in turn liable to slow down Lebanon's transition from the Syrian administration stage to a new stage characterized by a total independence from Damascus in shaping internal balances and external relations, in a country that have long suffered from Syria's intervention in its daily affairs, authorities and institutions.
In truth, it has been very difficult for the Hizbullah to swiftly adapt, since the party is a political body based on a strategy linking its activities to the alliance with Syria, especially as concerns the core of its mission, i.e. the confrontation with Israel.
Although many important arguments justify the party's slow adaptation, numerous events compelled Hizbullah to adopt stances in line with the overlooked, but ongoing realistic mutations. We refer in particular to the following:
1) After having long called for setting up a Lebanese-Arab commission instead of an International Investigation Commission to probe Hariri's assassination, and despite all the attempts undertaken by its allies to prevent the Security Council from moving forward on this track, the party was eventually forced to accept the "fait accompli", as was the case for Damascus and President Emile Lahoud who accepted reluctantly.
2) Opposing the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the party took the lead in defending the Syrian presence via a political front formed to this end. Subsequently, Hizbullah ended up thanking Syria for its role, especially when it decided to withdraw in implementation of UN Resolution 1559, which was contested by the party since it legitimized foreign intervention.
3) In assessing the popular drive stirring the country's political mutations, stemming from the build up of many years of Syrian hegemony in the domestic affairs, the party ruled out any possibility of outstripping its popular might. However, the demonstrations on March 14, 2005 then on February 14, 2006 proved that the assessment was erroneous.
4) The party sought first to postpone the parliamentary elections, initially scheduled in May, for more than one year, then for 6 months… Eventually, the elections were staged almost in due time, consecrating the ongoing mutations in the Lebanese society within the State's institutions.
5) The party stood against setting up an international court in PM Hariri's assassination and broadening the international probe to encompass the other crimes, claiming that such a move would cement the international tutelage over Lebanon. For this reason, the Shiite ministers boycotted the Cabinet for 7 weeks. But finally, Hizbullah ended up supporting the measures, as established in the minutes unveiled by Speaker Nabih Berri last Tuesday, during the national dialogue conference.
6) The party disagreed with the majority leaders over the means to settle the Palestinian file, starting with putting an end to the Palestinian arms outside the camps to implementing the pertaining Cabinet's decisions. Surprisingly, the party accepted to implement the provisions of the resolution within a specific time frame, as specified by the national dialogue conference.
While some blame the party for its slow and late adaptation despite these important developments, others believe, by contrast, that such behavior highlights many facts: the party's leadership still needs time to become flexible. Moreover, the party has reaped many gains in exchange of every concession offered and has even come closer to the Lebanese parties compared with its regional alliances. It has also reacted to foreign developments, which helped it make concessions when need be and often bear losses. In this respect, the Secretary General, Sayyed Hasssan Nasrallah, needs to trade mutations with time, even though it will cost him a draw back over some at some point, a step more than expected in the Lebanese-Lebanese relations.
Whether the party is late in adapting or not, we cannot but ponder on the measures taken by the active Western countries to bring Israel's behavior in line with the ongoing mutations in the region. Indeed, Jericho's incidents make Lebanon further wary and put the countries concerned by UN resolution 1559 to the test.

Security Council Briefed on Investigation of Hariri Assassination
The following Security Council press statement was delivered today by Council President Mayoral (Argentina):
The members of the Security Council received a briefing today from the Commissioner Mr. Serge Brammertz on the third interim report of the International Independent Investigation Commission on the assassination of former Prime Minister of Lebanon Rafik Hariri. The members of the Security Council welcomed the report and commended Mr. Brammertz and his team for their outstanding professional work.
The members of the Security Council noted with satisfaction that the investigation into the terrorist attack has advanced further. They also welcomed the steps taken by the Commission to extend additional technical assistance to the Lebanese judicial and law enforcement agencies with regard to their investigation into other terrorist attacks that have occurred in Lebanon since October 2004. They commended the Commission and the Government of Lebanon for their excellent working relationship.
The members of the Security Council took positive note of the common understanding reached between the Commission and the Syrian authorities regarding Syria's required full and unconditional cooperation with the investigation on legal and operational matters. They look forward to its implementation consistent with Security Council resolutions 1595, 1636 and 1644. Finally, the members of the Security Council reiterated their unwavering support for the Commission and its central role in identifying the perpetrators, organizers and sponsors of this heinous terrorist act so that they can be brought to justice. They stand ready to assist the Commission as necessary.

Syria’s oppn vows unity to oust Assad
(Reuters)18 March 2006
BRUSSELS — Exiled Syrian opposition leaders including a former vice-president and the head of the Muslim Brotherhood said yesterday they were forming a united front to replace President Bashar Al Assad with democracy.
Former vice-president Abdel Halim Khaddam, who broke with Assad last year after serving under his late father Hafez Al Assad, told Reuters he held talks with nationalists, liberals, Islamists, Kurds and communists and would announce a common programme for a transition to democracy on Friday. “The Syrian people are fed up with the current situation and we expect that a lot of new circumstances will lead to the uprising of the Syrian people,” he said in an interview.
Khaddam forecast “regime change” in Damascus this year, within a few months, because he said Assad was making many mistakes and “digging himself into a hole”. He said he expected a UN investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri to point a finger of accusation directly at the Syrian president.

Lebanon's pro-Syrian president vows to stay on
18 Mar 2006 18:BEIRUT, March 18 (Reuters) - Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said on Saturday he would not cave in to mounting pressure to resign and that the country's pro-Syrian Hizbollah guerrillas should keep their arms.
"I will not meet their demand and leave office. They can only oust me if the constitution states I am accused of treason or if I have violated the constitution, two things I have never committed," he said in advance excerpts of an interview to be aired on Al Jazeera television later on Saturday. Lahoud, a close ally of Damascus, has resisted calls from anti-Syrian politicians to step down, vowing to serve until the end of a term they say was extended by three years under pressure from Damascus in 2004.
Many Lebanese see Lahoud as the last vestige of Syrian tutelage over their country, which ended last year when Damascus withdrew its troops in the aftermath of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.
But fractious Lebanese politicians have been unable to agree on a replacement and removing the president would require at least a two-thirds majority in Lebanon's 128-member parliament.
Lahoud said most of the politicians who were now demanding his resignation had spent their careers in the Syrian camp, and challenged them to hold new elections if they were confident of keeping a parliamentary majority they won last summer.
"If they do not fear anything let them call for early elections and let the new deputies elect their new president. Or if they want, let them hold a referendum and see who the people would choose as their new president," he said.
Lebanese leaders are holding a "national dialogue" to try to end a political crisis paralysing the country but have been unable to agree on the fate of Lahoud and what to do about a U.N. Security Council resolution demanding Hizbollah disarms.
Some Lebanese say it is time Hizbollah, whose guerrilla attacks were crucial in ending the 22-year Israeli occupation of south Lebanon in 2000, laid down its arms and stuck to politics.
Hizbollah has vowed to keep its arms as a deterrent against Israel and until the Shebaa Farms, a strip on the border between Lebanon, Israel and Syria's Golan Heights, is liberated. The United Nations considers Shebaa Farms Syrian soil seized by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war but Lebanon considers it still-occupied Lebanese land. "The weapons of the resistance should exist until the Arab-Israeli conflict comes to an end and the Palestinians return to their homeland," Lahoud said.