In Lebanon

LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
MARCH 16/2006

Below news from The Daily Star for 16/03/06
Saudi ambassador meets Sfeir, praises dialogue
Filling in the gaps in the Taif Accord
Draft election law receives praise
Handcuffed Rana faces extradition
Siniora to visit Damascus for talks on diplomatic relations
International officials welcome UN report on Hariri killing
Israel's raid in Jericho deals blow to isolated Palestinian Authority president AFP
Abbas blasts Israel's 'unforgivable' raid
Leonov touches down in land of cedars
Jordan king warns strike on Iran catastrophic for region-(AFP)
Iran insists it won't quit nuclear research
Furious Ain al-Hilweh refugees protest jail raid
Iran's swagger and aggression aren't cowing anyone
How do you say 'ominous' in Belgian? By Michael Young
Below news from miscellaneous sources for 16/03/06
Hariri Dines with Aoun, then Snacks with Geagea-Asharq Alawsat
Wake up and smell the Kalfi-By: By Bradley Burston -Ha'aretz
Lebanon to seek Brazil extradition of Hariri suspect-Asharq Alawsat - London,UK
Inter-Lebanese talks wind up with four-point accord-AsiaNews.it
Syria says new UN report on Hariri probe objective-Xinhua
Syria Detains Activist Who Had Visited US-Washington Post
UN Probe Calls Lebanon Leader's Killers Expert Terrorists -New York Times
Lebanon Wants Brazil to Hold Onto Banker-Washington Post
Lebanon Wants Brazil to Hold Onto Banker-ABC News
In Lebanon, dialogue over clashing agendas-Christian Science Monitor
Hariri Dines with Aoun, then Snacks with Geagea-Asharq Alawsat

Saudi ambassador meets Sfeir, praises dialogue
By Maroun Khoury -Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, March 16, 2006
BKIRKI: Saudi Ambassador Abdel-Aziz Khoja said his country "is very pleased by the developments of the Lebanese national dialogue and we believe that the Lebanese are able to resolve their problems by themselves."
Speaking after a visit on Wednesday to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir in Bkirki, Khoja said: "We encourage the Lebanese national dialogue, particularly because it was made in Lebanon."
Asked if there was any Saudi initiative to support the dialogue, the Saudi ambassador rejected such claims, saying: "We believe that if the Lebanese agree on the pending issues they will be able to resolve their problems with Syria."
Khoja also said his country "is proud of Hizbullah's achievements," adding that the "disarmament is an internal issue and should be resolved by the Lebanese."The prelate also met Wednesday with Reform and Change MP Farid Khazen.
Khazen said that the accord reached by the Lebanese leaders would "help Prime Minister Fouad Siniora dealing with Syrian officials and the Palestinian weapons."
Asked if the issue of the presidency will hamper the dialogue, he said: "This issue along with Hizbullah's weapons will be tackled in the coming sessions and depend on resolving the other problems."
Khazen said he believed that the participants would reach an agreement over the presidency, once again voicing his bloc's "support for MP Michel Aoun as a presidential candidate."
Khazen also stressed that it was "time to establish the demarcation of the Syrian-Lebanese borders and the establishment of good relations with Syria."

Filling in the gaps in the Taif Accord
By Philip Abi akl -Daily Star-Thursday, March 16, 2006
After 12 sessions of dialogue between the politicians of the first row, the participants announced the outcome of their discussions and decided to resume the talks next week to resolve the issues of the resistance's arms and the presidency.
All the participants admitted that there was a presidential crisis, as the forces of March 8 and 14 agreed on the need to resolve this problem in order to conclude the dialogue.
According to some political forces in the dialogue, the participants agreed on points that have been already discussed by the March 8 forces and that have been constantly rejected by the forces of March 14.
The March 14 forces used to hold that resolving the issue of the presidency would facilitate the holding of the national dialogue; however, the agenda proposed by Speaker Nabih Berri excluded all thorny issues, such as the statements delivered by MP Walid Jumblatt in Washington.
Consequently, the dialogue was held in atmospheres of accord, as each participant voiced his desire to reach an agreement over the pending issues and to overcome the political divisions in order to merge the March 14 forces with the March 8 and to improve the country's political and economic situation.
The dialogue may lead to a series of new agreements that will be drafted in a comprehensive statement, which will be considered as a second Taif, since the issues discussed in the dialogue have not been mentioned in the Taif Accord.
According to a member of the Christian-Islamic committee, the Taif Accord represents a transitional compromise project but not a solution. It is, however, the only national document available and all the Lebanese parties should adhere to it and implement it. The committee may hold a meeting on March 28 to ask the politicians to revise the Taif and discuss the possible solutions for this transitional compromise.
A well-informed political source said that late former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri had talked about gaps in the Taif and asked legal experts to look into the document and modernize it.
Several politicians have also rejected some points of the Accord and underlined the need to amend it and fill its gaps. Former President Elias Hrawi was the first president to call for the amendment of the Taif. However, both Berri and Hariri rejected his calls, fearing that the amendment would affect the term of the speaker and the premier's personal interests.
Other politicians called for the complete implementation of the Accord, such as the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun, who said that the amendments should be discussed after the Taif is fully implemented. Although they admit the presence of gaps in the Accord, several politicians refused to tackle the issue in light of the tense political atmosphere in the country.

Draft election law receives praise
All committee members pleased with outcome
By Adnan El-Ghoul -Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 16, 2006
The majority of politicians, academics and religious figures of all sects have commended the National Election-law Committee's efficiency and accomplishment, and agreed the Committee had produced an excellent election law, according to Committee member Paul Salem.
Nevertheless, major Christian politicians still want more assurances that the new law will not lead to the misrepresentation of their communities, while the committee says it needs more time to resolve the last outstanding issues, which have led to the resignation of Maronite members, before submitting its final draft to the government.
"We were supposed to solve a half-a-century-old problem within a few months Salem said. "We spent seven months under dire political circumstances and as the government was going through a critical crisis and the communal and political tensions were high."Salem added that the committee needs more calm and less political provocation in order to resume its work with efficiency.The committee received 121 different proposals from a wide range of political parties, academics and religious leaders. "We spent the first three months discussing these proposals, meeting the various parties individually and through seminars and conferences," Salem said.
The proposals were a workable source rich in ideas and suggestions, out of which the Committee introduced many in its draft, including the age-group, the right of expatriates to vote, the women's quota, the media and advertisement regulations, spending budgets and many other new rules and regulations.
The National Committee sources confirm that all members were pleased with the outcome. "Despite the pressing time issue, the Committee was able to familiarize the proportional concept to the complexity of the Lebanese Sectarian composition."
The new draft suggests that each voter has to select two candidates from a closed electoral list, in which one would more likely vote for the candidates who represent his or her sect or political affiliation.
The other new element is that each candidate must be first qualified in his or her own direct constituency or qada, where the candidate who gets more votes will be the winner.
"In this manner, each sect can easily select its preferred candidate without ever depending on the votes of other dominant sects," Salem said. The Muslim members of the committee were more concerned with erasing all fears that may come from the Christians. "They were more understanding than competing for improving on their advantages," Salem added.
Committee sources disclosed that some major Muslim political groups were not pleased with adopting the proportional law because they felt they have to sacrifice many seats in each of their traditional areas.
However, the sources added, none objected strongly to the proportional law including Hizbullah, whose leaders believe one or two less seats in Parliament will not make a big difference. The Committee members had been tight-lipped about the details of their advancement, but the rush of prejudgments, unfounded criticism and misinterpretation of its work forced Committee head Fouad Butros to clarify the disputed issues. In a statement, Butros said: "We were assigned to produce a new draft-law within the framework of Taif Accord and the Constitution. The critics who suggested other divisions of the electoral districts - qada or Lebanon as one district - have to understand such suggestions contradict the Taif Accord's set of guidelines."
The Maronite members, Ziad Baroud and Michel Tabet, resigned when the Committee's time ended before reaching a decision on the division of the electoral districts; "they objected to idea of presenting two versions of the draft-law: one suggesting nine and the other 13 constituencies," according to Salem.
Following his meeting with Butros, David Issa, a Maronite politician, said: "The problem lies in the Constitution demanding from the legislators to amend the laws and produce a fair electoral system that assures the rights of all sects."

Handcuffed Rana faces extradition
By Raed El Rafei -Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 16, 2006
BEIRUT: Brazil will help extradite Rana Qoleilat, a Lebanese national suspected of having a link with financing the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri, a high ranking official said Wednesday. Foreign Minister Fawzi Saloukh told The Daily Star after a meeting with Brazilian Ambassador Eduardo de Seixas that "Brazilian authorities are ready to cooperate with us concerning Qoleilat's extradition."The foreign minister said he had directed Lebanon's ambassador to Brazil to ask authorities there to keep Qoleilat in custody until an extradition request arrives through diplomatic courier.
While Lebanon has no extradition treaty with Brazil, Salloukh said that the possible link to Hariri's assassination could provide a way out. "Security Council resolution 1644 on Hariri's assassination calls on all countries to offer help in the investigations," he said. De Seixas said while a 2002 extradition treaty had not been ratified by either state, "this does not constitute an obstacle."Earlier, State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza sent a demand for the extradition of Qoleilat to Brazilian authorities through the Lebanese Foreign Ministry, judicial sources said.
Mirza pointed to verdicts by the Lebanese judiciary against Qoleilat as well as the draft of a cooperation agreement between Lebanese and Brazilian judiciaries, the sources added.
Qoleilat, 39, was arrested in an hotel room in Sao Paolo on an Interpol warrant for bank fraud. The Estado de S. Paulo newspaper showed police leading her away in handcuffs, wearing a black baseball cap, white T-shirt and orange pants.
She was briefly treated in hospital after police found her in her cell with a cut on her wrist. Police said they were investigating how she was wounded and did not rule out a suicide attempt.
The UN commission investigating Hariri's murder suspects Qoleilat of providing financial help, through Al-Madina Bank - directly or indirectly - to Hariri's assassins. Qoleilat was jailed in Beirut for her link to Bank al-Madina scandal in 2003. She is suspected of financing Rustom Ghazaleh, former head of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, as well as Lebanese intelligence services.
A source at the Lebanese Consulate in Brazil told The Daily Star that Qoleilat's case received huge coverage from the media there. He added that Brazilian televisions transmitted live broadcasts of her arrest.
After her initial arrest, Qoleilat was accused of trying to bribe the officers to let her leave the country.
But Qoleilat's attorney, Victor Mouawad, said Tuesday police were merely confused by her attempts to explain, in fractured Portuguese, her plans to invest as much as $200,000 in Brazil.
She was "looking into the possibility of investing in the hotel industry...The police obviously misconstrued it as an attempt to bribe them," Mouawad said. Qoleilat's attorney also said: "She told me she is a victim of political persecution and that her biggest fear is that she will be killed as soon as she returns to Lebanon. She did not tell me who is persecuting her nor why."
The alleged bribe appears to be at the low end of the figures associated with her past scandals. During 12 years at the bank, Qoleilat rose from clerk to executive at a time when paying off Syrian intelligence agents and providing gifts to powerful politicians was common. At the time of her arrest in Brazil, Qoleilat was carrying a British passport. The British Embassy in Beirut issued a passport for a person with that name in 2002, said David Paginton, vice consul of Britain's Sao Paulo consulate, though he said he could not yet confirm Qoleilat's passport is valid.
The British Embassy in Beirut said "a British Overseas Citizen passport was issued to a person called Rana Klailat at the British Embassy, Beirut, on January 14, 2002." A spokesperson added that "for reasons of confidentiality," the embassy is "unable to divulge personal information about how an individual qualifies for a British Overseas Citizen passport."

Siniora to visit Damascus for talks on diplomatic relations
By Nada Bakri -Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 16, 2006
BEIRUT: Premier Fouad Siniora will be visiting Damascus soon to discuss with officials there the establishment of diplomatic relations with Syria in addition to proving the Lebanese identity of the Shebaa Farms. Siniora told As-Safir newspaper the date for his visit is not yet final and the matter needs thorough discussions and preparations.
He added his visit to Syria was unanimously decided Tuesday during the second round of the dialogue, which will resume its sessions next Wednesday. Siniora added that the results of the national talks are "a historical achievement and come in accordance with the ministerial statement." Before meeting with Syrian officials in Damascus, Siniora will visit Brussels Monday where he will meet with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and deliver a speech before the EU's Foreign Ministers Council.
Siniora will highlight in his speech the situation in the country, the outcome of the national talks in addition to the governments' economic plan that will be discussed during the Beirut 1 donors conference. EU ambassador to Lebanon Patrick Renault who met with Siniora Wednesday said the premier will also discuss the European Neighborhood Policy with the EU's Foreign Ministers and means to enhance Lebanese-European relations. Sources close to Siniora said the premier might visit London next Tuesday to meet with British Premier Tony Blair. The sources said the official will be back the same day to attend the third round of the national talks.
Siniora had earlier during the day received a phone call from the UN chief Kofi Annan who said he was concerned with the ongoing tensions along the Lebanese borders with Israel. Annan had reportedly asked Siniora to exert more efforts to ease tensions along the borders. The Israeli Army announced a state of high alert Sunday on the Lebanese Southern borders after Israeli intelligence reports claimed Hizbullah was planning to carry out attacks on Israel.
In turn, Siniora echoed his government's fears from Israel's continuous breaching of Lebanon's airspace and borders which he said increases tensions and security instability. Siniora also condemned the Israeli raid on a West Bank jail Tuesday and called on Annan to pressure Israel into respecting international laws and stopping its provocative actions against the Palestinians.
As the premier prepares for his European meetings, Lebanon's political elite are holding side discussions before the third round of the national dialogue kicks off to tackle two of the most controversial issues: the arms of Hizbullah and the fate of President Emile Lahoud. Lahoud, who has been under pressure from anti-Syrian politicians to resign, has vowed to serve out his term, which was extended amid widespread opposition in 2004 at Syria's behest.
In an interview with French daily La Croix published on Wednesday Lahoud urged politicians to respect the presidency, adding "the Parliamentary majority has been elected by an electoral law which is seen by many as unconstitutional."
"If we want to contribute to the recovery of this country, we must respect its institutions, including the presidency," he said.
Lahoud further praised his long time adversary Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun calling him "a real politician and statesman." "[Aoun] has many qualifications which other presidential candidates lack," he said.
For his part Aoun once again described the parliamentary majority as "delusional" and the elections as "forged since it was based on a Syrian-made electoral law."Meanwhile Lahoud has yet to decide whether he will head Thursday's Cabinet session which will be held at its temporary location at the Social and Economic Council in Downtown Beirut.

International officials welcome UN report on Hariri killing
By Majdoline Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 16, 2006
BEIRUT: International and regional officials applauded the report of Serge Brammertz, UN chief investigator into the assassination of Lebanon's former Premier Rafik Hariri, on Wednesday, one day before the UN Security Council was set to discuss its content in New York. Speaking to The Daily Star from New York, a spokesman for the U.S. mission to the UN welcomed the report, adding: "We are looking forward to discussing the report with Mr. Brammertz at the Security Council tomorrow." He urged all concerned parties to show the "utmost cooperation with the investigation."
The report, which was delivered by Brammertz to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and distributed to UNSC members on Tuesday, mentioned that Syria has been cooperating with the international probe, and noted that Brammertz will interview Syrian President Bashar Assad and his deputy Farouk al-Sharaa next month.
Speaking from Paris, Jean Baptist Mattei, spokesman for the French Foreign Ministry, said his country supported the work of the investigation committee, and demanded that Damascus "take further steps to speed up Brammertz's work."
Both Lebanon and Syria also welcomed Brammertz's report on Wednesday.
In comments from New York, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said that the report was "realistic and very professional."The report, which also noted progress in determining the circumstances of the killing, was the first by Brammertz since he took up his new duties on January 23, succeeding German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis.
Since his nomination on January 11, Brammertz has conducted his probe in utmost secrecy. He made his first trip to Damascus on February 23 and met with Foreign Minister Walid Moallem.
Two previous reports under Mehlis had suggested top-level Syrian involvement in the assassination and also blasted Damascus for not only failing to cooperate but also actively seeking to mislead the investigation.
Commenting on that, Mekdad denounced the "scandalous reports previously published by Mehlis, which allowed the media to make pre-emptive judgments" about Syria. The Brammertz report "did not contain anti-Syria aspects," he added.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh also welcomed Brammertz's report, and said it represented the outcome of "professional work."
"We welcome the atmosphere of strong cooperation noted in this report between the international investigation commission and Lebanese authorities, and assert this good atmosphere of cooperation will continue," Salloukh said. Salloukh also said that Lebanon welcomed the "serious cooperation with the commission witnessed by all parties."
Salloukh said the Foreign Ministry has instructed the Lebanese delegation - headed by Ambassador Butros Assaker - to represent Lebanon before Thursday's Security Council meeting, and inform the UNSC of the Lebanese political elite's unanimous support for revealing the truth about Hariri's death. This point was the first agreed upon during the country's ongoing national dialogue.Hariri's son, parliament majority leader and MP Saad Hariri, said: "This report represents a new step toward revealing the tools used in the crime, and the instigators behind the crime. It also expresses the seriousness in which this investigation has dealt with the terrorist act leading to the murder of Hariri."
Hariri also welcomed the team's work on the rest of the crimes and explosions following Hariri's assassination, saying: "This is an assertion that the international community is interested in Lebanon's stability."
Speaking to The Daily Star, Druze leader MP Walid Jumblatt said the report was "very positive and promising."
"Brammertz is following the work of Mehlis, and if he keeps this pace up the truth will be revealed soon," Jumblatt said.
Although Brammertz said Syria has been cooperating, Jumblatt said the fact that the report decided there is a link between all explosions that took place before and after the assassination of Hariri was an explicit indictment of the Syrian regime.
"This is very important, as it forms a clear political indictment of the Syrian regime that ruled Lebanon at the time of the assassination," Jumblatt said. He also said that what the report mentioned about highly professional terrorist work in Hariri's murder was further tacit "condemnation for the Syrian regime".
"This is a work on the level of a state, and Syria had strong hegemony over Lebanon then," Jumblatt said.
Brammertz's report had said that "the individuals who perpetrated this crime appear to be very 'professional' in their approach ... It must be assumed that at least some of those involved were likely experienced in this type of terrorist activity."
Jumblatt also said that the fact that Brammertz didn't specify names of suspects in the crime, like his successor Mehlis, was because he was working in a manner befitting a public prosecutor.
"He is taking things very professionally," he said. Brammertz did not disclose many details about the investigation in his report. The lack of information was a marked contrast to the details delivered by his predecessor, Detlev Mehlis, who publicly described his theories about the explosion. Brammertz also did not repeat Mehlis' conclusions that the killing could not have happened without the knowledge of senior Syrian and Lebanese intelligence officials.

Israel's raid in Jericho deals blow to isolated Palestinian Authority president
By Agence France Presse (AFP) -Thursday, March 16, 2006
Analysis
Hisham Abdallah -Agence France Presse
RAMALLAH, West Bank: Israel's raid in Jericho has left beleaguered Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas eyeballing diplomatic disaster and exacerbated his increased isolation after the election victory of Hamas. The capture of detained leader Ahmad Saadat and five cohorts from a Palestinian prison underscored Abbas' weakness and unpopularity as Israel put its relationship with the administration on a new footing, analysts said.
The Abbas camp was the first to admit the Jericho raid had been a public relations disaster for the Palestinian Authority as their president rushed back to manage the crisis, cutting short a key European tour. "This operation has had a destructive impact on the status of the Palestinian Authority," chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said.
Abbas has fought an impossible corner since January's elections when Saadat was elected MP for his Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Hamas swept to power ousting his once-dominant Fatah Movement.
Under mounting anger from PFLP supporters over keeping an elected deputy in Palestinian custody under British-U.S. supervision, he anyway faced the real prospect that Saadat would be released by the new Hamas-led government.
The fact that he was abroad at the time and forced to issue floundering calls for calm, as he sought to shore up his position in Europe and secure international aid, only served to underscore his quandary. "This was a very strong blow to the Palestinian Authority," Wissam Rafidi, a PFLP central committee member, said. "They were very weak and what happened yesterday will only exacerbate their weakness in the eyes of the people. It's becoming less popular," he added.
A wave of demonstrations that swept across the West Bank on Wednesday singled Abbas out for blame.
Protestors denounced Abbas and former Civil Affairs Minister Mohammad Dahlan, who helped broker the deal under which Saadat and his colleagues were taken to Jericho in 2002 after Israel besieged the Palestinian headquarters in Ramallah.
An ensuing blitz of kidnappings, attacks on foreign interests and the fleeing of foreigners from the Gaza Strip piled yet further embarrassment on Abbas over pervading security chaos that he has promised, but failed, to curb.
Erekat blamed Israel for dealing the "biggest blow to President Abbas and the Authority" and what he called a "dangerous indicator" of things to come. "Israel is sending us a message that they want to continue their unilateral process and plans," he added. Ali Jarbawi, dean of the law faculty at the most prestigious Palestinian university, Beir Zeit, said Tuesday's raid was a model for Israeli and international isolation of the embryonic Hamas government. "The Palestinian Authority looked very weak and confused and isolated," he said, calling the events in Jericho a "model for how the international community will deal with the new Hamas government.""It was clear nobody from the international community was on their side. I fear everybody is now looking at the Authority in terms of the future."It sends a very strong signal that even if this might relieve pressure on Hamas [on conditions of forming a government] it sends a strong signal that you need a government that should be able to function," he said.

Jordan king warns strike on Iran catastrophic for region
Abdullah slams israeli raid on West bank prison
By Agence France Presse (AFP) -Thursday, March 16, 2006
Interview
Randa Habib -Agence France Presse
AMMAN: Jordan's King Abdullah II warned on Wednesday that a strike on Iran would cause the region "to explode" and deplored Israel's raid on a Palestinian prison. "A strike against Iran would cause the whole region to explode," the Jordanian monarch told AFP in comments on the crisis between the West and Tehran over its nuclear activities.
"The threat to regional security and stability will be grave if force is utilized to resolve this problem. Dialogue, patience and diplomacy are the only solution," he added.
He likewise deplored Israel's raid Tuesday on a Jericho prison to seize prominent Palestinian prisoners wanted over the 2001 murder of Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Zeevi.
"What happened ... is a threat to the future of the peace process and to security in the region. It is an unfortunate escalation," he said.
"It would have been better for the parties concerned to find another formula to deal with this issue. They created tensions and lessened the chances for an adequate climate to forge ahead with the peace process."
The king also urged Hamas "to deal with regional and international realities" as it prepares to form a government.
But he likewise called on the international community "to respect the Palestinians' will, to give Hamas a chance, and not to judge it before it presents its program and vision."
Jordan expelled Hamas leaders, including current political chief Khaled Meshaal, in 1999, but King Abdullah said Amman is ready to deal with it "through the Palestinian National Authority."
The Jordanian monarch also urged Palestinians and Israelis to compromise and return to the negotiating table, warning that time was running out.
"If we are going to keep throwing the ball to each other's court ... the reality of the situation is that we will find, two years from now, that we have no homeland to talk about," he said.
He also cautioned that there has been a "drop" in international interest for the Palestinian issue because of other world concerns such as Iran's row with the West and Iraq.
"A lawyer once told me that a good deal is always brokered when both sides are unhappy because both sides have had to give something," he added.
He renewed an invitation to host an Iraqi inter-faith conference in Amman "to come up with a religious consensus so that Iraqis could reach a political consensus."
"I call on our brothers in Iraq to recognize the gravity of the situation, and not to listen to those who promote division, internal discord and the division of Iraqis into Sunni, Shiite, Kurd and Turkman," he said.
He also admitted that the rampant violence in Iraq "placed a huge security burden on Jordan," where several Iraqis were indicted this week over the devastating November 9 hotel bombings in Amman.
"Many terrorist movements found in Iraq a fertile ground to achieve their goals, especially Al-Qaeda, which has adopted a strategy of using Iraqis to strike Jordan, as happened in the Amman hotel bombings," he said.
Earlier this month Jordan said it foiled a plot involving Iraqi nationals to strike at a "vital civilian installation."
"We have a security problem at the borders ... so we are working on preparing the infrastructure," he said.
Meanwhile, the Jordanian monarch said he was not worried about the latest victories of Islamic movements in Egypt and the Palestinian territories.
These polls "showed a surge of Islamic movements because the Islamists organized themselves well, while other parties were set back by ... a lack of leadership [and] corruption among some of their leaders," he said. "We in Jordan are not concerned about the possibility of an Islamist victory, as long as they respect the Constitution, our laws and regulations and as long as their allegiance is to Jordan."
King Abdullah said he will travel Monday to Paris for talks with French President Jacques Chirac, including Jordan's efforts to promote "a moderate, tolerant Islam, to which extremism and fanaticism are alien."

Iran's swagger and aggression aren't cowing anyone
Thursday, March 16, 2006-Daily Star
Editorial
Efforts to reach a consensus on Iran's nuclear program at the UN Security Council have encountered several snags. After several rounds of negotiations the Council's five permanent veto-wielding members have so far failed to reach an accord. This stalemate has given the Iranians what they need the most: time to find a peaceful solution that would protect its rights but also ease the concerns of the international community.
In recent months, Iranian officials have adopted an increasingly defiant tone in the face of pressure over its nuclear program. Iran's aggressive rhetoric has been coupled with even bolder actions, such as restarting its nuclear activities after a temporary suspension. Many Iranians are starting to think that this aggressive strategy is backfiring, as the prospect of punitive measures against Iran becomes an increasingly likely outcome to the crisis. While nearly all Iranians insist that their country should have the right, as guaranteed under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to enrich nuclear fuel, many are beginning to question their leadership's confrontational approach on the issue. They find themselves increasingly trapped between two gangs of bullies: the Bush administration, which has in recent months increased the pressure on Iran, and Iran's conservative rulers, particularly President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been stepping up his aggressive rhetoric.
Former President Mohammad Khatami has criticized Ahmadinejad's approach, saying that Iran's nuclear issue must be resolved through peaceful diplomacy. In a recent interview with Al-Jazeera television, Khatami stressed Iran's inalienable right to enrich fuel, but suggested that "Iran also must take a path, which will solve and remove worries about nuclear weapons possession through mutual understanding and trust."
A similar view was recently expressed by leading reformist cleric Mehdi Karrubi, who came in third place during last year's presidential elections. Karrubi told the Tehran Times this week: "We should have a strong diplomacy, avoid making unwise remarks that would further complicate the issue, build confidence and boost cooperation."
The West, particularly the United States is predisposed to take a negative view of Iran's nuclear program. If Iranian leaders hope to safely navigate their country out of the current crisis, they will need to invest more energy in convincing the West that their nuclear intentions are peaceful. The bold and aggressive stance of Iran's leaders has failed to make much progress. In fact, it has only evoked an even bolder response from Iran's opponents. Perhaps Iranian leaders would be more successful if instead of making threats, they relied on the power of persuasion.

How do you say 'ominous' in Belgian?
By Michael Young -Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 16, 2006
Serge Brammertz's first report on the ongoing investigation of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's murder initially reads as something dryly procedural. However, the document is much more than that. It again confirms that the inquisitorial machinery is in high gear, and that the suspects have fewer means to affect, or even delay, the outcome of the investigation.
In the days leading up to the report's release, Syria's Lebanese friends and foes both sought to spin what the report might say. However, Brammertz, who is a more fastidious and taciturn editor than his predecessor, Detlev Mehlis, gave neither side much new in the way of ammunition; nor did he challenge the fundamentals of Mehlis' findings. He did throw out a teaser in paragraph 18, saying "a decision has been taken to discontinue some of the previous identified lines of inquiry," but nothing in his methodology suggested an alteration in the established direction of the case.
Syria remains the focal point of the Brammertz commission's interest and Lebanese suspects with close ties to Damascus remain incarcerated. Even the theory that an underground explosion might have taken place in Hariri's assassination was given new vitality.
Brammertz almost completely cut out a description of the political context of the murder, failed to mention specifics in several leads outlined earlier by Mehlis, and remained mostly opaque about his own suspicions. There was no mention of the role that Syrian and Lebanese security agencies might have played, but also no denial that they played a role, with paragraph 49 reaffirming the legislation under which suspects were arrested. Indeed, according to unconfirmed reports, Brammertz recently intervened to urge the judiciary not to release several of the Lebanese suspects in prison, after their lawyers complained that it was unclear why they were still being held. More broadly, the report belied statements made by Michel Aoun recently that the investigation was "blocked."
The Brammertz strategy today, as the report made clear, has shifted toward consolidating the legal underpinnings of the case. The Belgian has put on his prosecutor's hat, and his declared aim is to "ensure the application of recognized standards of international and Lebanese law." That's why he has reworked the profile of his team by adding a legal advisory unit, as well as an "integrated support services component" to provide logistical support for expanded operations. These include assisting the Lebanese in uncovering responsibility for the 14 bomb attacks that occurred just before and after the Syrian withdrawal last year.
Some may see the legal buttressing as implicit disavowal of Mehlis. Unidentified Syrian sources tried to harp on this following Brammertz's first visit to Damascus, noting he had been surprised by the thinness of his predecessor's case. The information was false - a Syrian trial balloon possibly based on information coming from allies in Beirut. Mehlis and Brammertz have played complementary roles. The German did use leaks and strong-arm tactics against Syria in a way the Belgian has avoided; but there was a good reason for this. By provoking polarization as the investigation gained momentum, he consolidated its international political-legal foundations by helping push through two relatively forceful Security Council resolutions, 1636 and 1644, that substantially narrowed the Syrians' wiggling room.
When I asked Mehlis last December whether he would seek to tighten any new UN resolution to enforce Syrian cooperation, he answered: "The conditions we have are almost perfect. It makes our work easier. We are very happy." And this was before the adoption of Resolution 1644, which pointed a disapproving finger at Syria, but also began a process to set up a tribunal with an international character. Brammertz is said to be accelerating the creation of such a tribunal to provide a more solid institutional framework within which to pursue his investigative efforts.
Notably absent from the Brammertz report was mention of possible arrests of Syrian officials, or the involvement of the Syrian leadership in ordering Hariri's liquidation. The Belgian preferred to keep under wraps the testimony of the former Syrian vice president, Abdel-Halim Khaddam, who has publicly stated what he told the UN commission, namely that he believes Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered the Hariri hit. This prospect remains alive in the commission's reaffirming that it has the right to interview any Syrian official, that a meeting with Assad is planned "during the upcoming month," and that it intends to request "full, unhindered and direct access to documents, facilities and sites" in Syria.
More interesting, however, is why the UN commission has not asked Syria's judicial authorities to arrest Syrian suspects. In December, Mehlis was on the verge of doing so, or so he told me, though the extension of the commission's mandate meant he left that in Brammertz's lap. The latter's strategy has involved delaying arrests, though it's not immediately apparent why. Is it because Brammertz feels they would lead nowhere at this stage, since suspects would stay in Damascus? Is he waiting for the tribunal to be set up, so the suspects can be moved to a neutral location outside Syria or Lebanon? Does he fear that an arrest order may compel him to divulge more information than he is willing to at this stage?
The most significant passage summing up Brammertz's current thinking about Hariri's murder came in paragraph 36. The commission stated its belief "that there is a layer of perpetrators between those who initially commissioned the crime and the actual perpetrators on the day of the crime, namely those who enabled the crime to occur." This was an intriguing formulation, intimating at least three layers of involvement: those who carried out the crime itself, those who ordered it, and an intermediate layer of accomplices who oversaw implementation. This entailed far more than, let's say, an Islamist plot, where the assassins would not require that intermediate layer, which mainly offers deniability.
If one acts on the hypothesis that Syria was behind Hariri's elimination, then the passage does two things: it underlines that Brammertz will not be misled by efforts to find scapegoats in the intermediate layer of perpetrators (apparently the middle levels of the intelligence services), to better protect those above who may have masterminded the crime; and it means the Belgian prosecutor is wise as to what took place, and that his silence is considerably more ominous than Syria and its allies would care to admit.Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Wake up and smell the Kalfi
By Bradley Burston
Wednesday, 15 March (13 days to Election Day)
There's nothing like the real thing, which is to say, chaotic violence, to mark the climax of an Israeli political campaign.
Witness the Israeli air strike that destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad on July 7, 1981 - by sheer coincidence, three weeks before election day, and a smashing victory by Likud incumbent Menachem Begin.
Witness Operation Grapes of Wrath, then-prime minister Shimon Peres' ill-fated flexing of muscle in south Lebanon. An errant artillery barrage that cost the lives of scores of Lebanese civilians ultimately cost Peres the Arab vote in Israel. he lost the election to Benjamin Netanyahu by a mere 27,000 votes.
This week, with the IDF encircling and punching holes in walls in a curious remake of the Old Testament Battle of Jericho, something finally changed.
The Jericho siege and capture of the assassins of cabinet minister Rehavam Ze?evi was one of those events that changes the national subject. After a campaign that could have easily doubled as a general anesthetic for an entire population, there are now signs of stirring.
Perhaps, at long last, to borrow a phrase referring to the Hebrew word for ballot box, Israelis have begun to wake up and smell the Kalfi.
Politicians certainly have.
As soon as the IDF moved a brigade of troops and a phalanx of tanks and bulldozers, everyone, it seemed, was running for office, even Ahmed Sa'adat, the terror warlord at the center of the storm.
Sa'adat was, in fact, the first out of the gate. A sudden media star as the Israelis deployed outside the prison walls, Sa?adat?s telephone interviews were everywhere, the centerpiece of satellite news stations worldwide.
"We are not going to surrender," Sa'adat crowed to Al-Jazeera. "We are going to face our destiny with courage."
Avigdor Lieberman, the endlessly inventive leader of the Russian immigrant-dominated Yisrael Beiteinu party, weighed in with an alternative to the siege.
"There is no point in drawing this out," Lieberman said. "The air force should do something. There is no point in endangering IDF soldiers. We should simply erase that building, bring it down on all those hiding out there.
Even long-retired politicians found it impossible to refrain from campaigning on the Jericho card. Hitting as many emotional tripwires as possible in one go, former MK and far-left immortal Uri Avneri attacked the siege as a bald campaign ploy by Olmert, characterizing the 2001 Ze'evi assassination an Israeli-style targeted killing, and suggesting that slain Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin "was certainly of a higher rank" than Ze'evi.
"The killing of cabinet minister Ze'evi was a focused prevention in the true meaning of the term. Those who extol focused preventions cannot say that when we do it to others it's great, it's a national act, but when others to it to us, it's a horrible crime."
Avneri, referring to the 2004 assassination of the Hamas leader, said "Sheikh Yassin was certainly of a higher rank than Rehavam Ze'evi. Rehavam Ze'evi openly advocated the expulsion of all the Arabs from the country, and I don't see a difference in principle between this and the killing of the leaders of all the Palestinian factions."
Even some politicians who backed the siege couldn?t resist taking a shot at Ehud Olmert. Likud figure Uzi Landau sent out a statement saying the operation, while justified, was "spin."
The Likud later rushed out a clarification, praising the siege without reservation. But Landau was back later in the day, saying that in any case, Olmert's policies regarding Hamas sparked the Palestinian plan to release Sa'adat and the others.
In short, the raid got everyone up and running for office. Except Olmert, that is.
Olmert was the only one who didn't have to.
Minutes after the siege ended Tuesday night with the surrender of Sa?adat and the others, Channel Two television cut off the required nightly marathon of campaign commercials to broadcast a live news conference by the IDF's overall West Bank commander.
Olmert was nowhere to be seen, all night - a decidedly astute move.
The next morning, the front pages of Israeli tabloids bore euphoric banner headlines worthy of Operation Entebbe:
"WE GOT 'EM," crowed Maariv.
Across the board, analysts agreed that even if the timing of the siege had no connection to the campaign, the timing for Olmert could not have been more auspicious.
In a one-two combination of a left to the body politic and a right uppercut to the jaw, Olmert's weekend introduction of a "convergence" plan for a major West Bank withdrawal within four years was followed by a military success of rare drama and swiftness.
It is worthy of note that the closely watched opinion polls released in weekend editions of major newspapers are taken on Tuesday night.
Perhaps significantly, a Channel one television poll released Tuesday and taken before the siege, showed Kadima buoyed by five seats over the week before, to 42 seats in the 120-seat house. Labor and the Likud marched in place, at 16 and 15 seats respectively.
If Olmert's main campaign mission is to seize the agenda and set it, he has succeeded, if only for the moment.
What can Olmert do next?
If the last few weeks are an indication, he might well look to Hamas for inspiration and backlash-fueled support. As soon as Olmert unveiled his "convergence" plan, Hamas condemned it as a declaration of war.
Or he can look to Benjamin Netanyahu, who exhorted Likud campaign activists this week, "Kadima L' Avoda," - literally "Forward, to work," but mentioning the party's two rivals, Kadima and Labor - Kadima, to the elections, Kadima, to victory!"

In Lebanon, dialogue over clashing agendas
Sectarian, political chiefs met this week to resolve deep rifts that followed Hariri assassination.
By Nicholas Blanford | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
BEIRUT, LEBANON – This country's political chiefs resumed a grueling and unprecedented national dialogue this week to forge a compromise over a host of issues that have paralyzed the government and led to a level of sectarian polarization not seen since the 1975-90 civil war.
The 14 Christian and Muslim leaders began the conference on March 2, but adjourned five days later amid sharp differences, mainly over the fate of the pro-Syrian president and the UN call for disarmament of the militant group Hizbullah. Although talks resumed Monday, they were adjourned again Tuesday for another week to allow participants time for more consultations.
The divisions here reflect the broader rifts emerging in the Middle East, pitting an alliance of Iran and Syria and their allies against the regional ambitions of the US and its European allies such as Britain and France.
"The Lebanese dialogue is essentially a background for clashing agendas: Iran and Syria on one hand and the US and France on the other," says Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, assistant professor of politics at the Lebanese American University. "This is only an internal Lebanese dialogue in that the participants are Lebanese, but the agendas are non-Lebanese. They are regional and international and all the strings are being pulled by foreign actors."
Among the conference participants is the Shiite Hizbullah organization, which forms a key component of the emerging anti-Western axis, grouping its patron Iran, strategic ally Syria, and militant Iraqi and Palestinian groups. Hizbullah spearheads opposition to Western influence here, which has grown significantly since Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April last year.
On the other side of the dialogue table are generally anti-Syrian Christian, Druze, and Sunni politicians who welcome the support of the US and France in eradicating the last vestiges of Syrian influence in Lebanon. They view Hizbullah's weapons and continuing ties to Damascus with unease.
This pattern of Lebanese sects seeking powerful foreign patrons to advance their domestic interests has a long history in Lebanon where no one group is large enough to successfully dominate all the others. And the country's rich religious and political diversity has made it a convenient arena for regional and international powers to pursue their strategic agendas and wage their political battles via Lebanese proxies.
"Clearly, the international interest here is not primarily driven by a righteous desire to help Lebanese democracy, because they sat around for a couple of decades not thinking about that at all," says Rami Khouri, a Beirut-based Jordanian political commentator. But "Lebanon's linkages with Iran, Israel, Syria, indirectly with Iraq are four big sticker items with which it's organically linked and, therefore, Lebanon can't avoid the attention of the big Western powers."
Indeed, foreign involvement here has reached near unprecedented levels since the Syrian troop withdrawal last year.
Syria and Iran continue to project influence mainly through Hizbullah. Regional powerhouses Saudi Arabia and Egypt have attempted to mediate - unsuccessfully so far - a rapprochement between Beirut and Damascus.
The US, Britain, and France are assisting in the process of overhauling Lebanon's cumbersome security agencies. Lebanon is subject to a raft of UN resolutions and has no less than three senior UN envoys engaged in Lebanese affairs.
One of them, Serge Brammertz, a Belgian prosecutor who heads the UN commission investigating the Hariri assassination, is due to present an interim report Thursday to the UN Security Council. Another UN envoy, Terje Roed-Larsen, will submit next week a progress report on the implementation of resolution 1559, which includes a demand for Hizbullah's disarmament.
Following talks on Lebanon in Moscow Monday with Russian and Syrian officials, Mr. Larsen described the national dialogue as a "momentous event in Lebanese history: the first ever such dialogue without foreign interference or facilitation."
The fate of Hizbullah's armed wing is the thorniest, but not the only divisive subject up for debate at the conference.
Others include the future of Lebanon's pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud - whom anti-Syrian politicians are seeking to remove from office, normalizing Lebanese-Syrian relations, regulating armed Palestinian groups on Lebanese soil, and confirming the sovereignty of the Shebaa Farms, a remote Israeli-occupied mountainside along Lebanon's southeast border where Hizbullah fighters periodically battle Israeli troops.
Rival leaders reportedly made some progress Monday on the Shebaa farms issue and on working toward establishing full diplomatic ties with Syria and disarming Palestinian militants outside the country's 12 refugee camps.
Lebanese leaders insist that failure is not an option.
"The economy has suffered a lot and any delay will compound the problems," Prime Minister Fouad Siniora told the Lebanese As Safir newspaper on Monday. "If we do not agree today, we will agree in days, weeks or months, but every delay will increase the cost to Lebanon and to the Lebanese."