LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
MARCH 14/2006

Below news from miscellaneous sources for 14/03/06
Roads Closed on Lebanon Border Following Terror Alert-Arutz Sheva
As Syria's Influence in Lebanon Wanes, Iran Moves In-New York Times
Syria arrests dissidents on anniversary of clashes-Khaleej Times
Group tied to Qaida has post near Lebanese border-Ha'aretz
Lebanon talks resume but breakthrough hopes dim-Reuters.uk - UK
IDF on high alert in north-Ynetnews
Below News from the Daily Star for 14/03/06
Politicians agree on 'good relations' with Syria
Israel claims Hizbullah planning attacks, announces state of alert
Election law committee fails to resolve sectarian-division hurdle
Shebaa Farms residents insist they are Lebanese
Sfeir asks electoral law committee members to try again
Labor minister promises to safeguard NSSF reform
Russia sees no need for Syria to face sanctions
Yet more bones found left behind at Anjar mass graves
Detainee supporters see Hizbullah as best hope
Israel claims Hizbullah planning attacks, announces state of alert
Salloukh: Expatriates 'pillars of country'
A postcard from the edge of a bomb site
Fneish promotes use of solar energy
Time for Arabs to get off the bench and play the Washington game
Them and us.By Nahla Atiyah

Yet more bones found left behind at Anjar mass graves
By Rym Ghazal -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
BEIRUT: The mass graves unearthed in Anjar are to be officially sealed off as new reports made it to the media Monday that a Belgian delegation found uncollected bones during a visit to the graves. The announcement came following a report in An-Nahar Monday that a Belgian delegation found bones from a "a foot and a hand" almost three months after the completion of the official exhumation and collection of the bones. "The graves will be off limits to everyone, except the team commissioned by the government to investigate the mass graves," said the prosecutor general responsible for the case, Abdullah Bitar, to The Daily Star. "There are not supposed to be there any bones left behind. There is even a special officer assigned to the site whose job is to make sure the bones have been collected and keep me updated on what is happening there," said Bitar.
Bitar launched an investigation into the case of the uncollected bones, after the initial discovery by The Daily Star of bones carelessly left behind, just a week after the exhumation process was officially completed by the Lebanese authorities.
"This is absolutely ridiculous and there is total incompetence somewhere," he said, adding that "my officer suggested that perhaps a dog or some animal brought in the bones as the site is completely unguarded."
A report was released in An-Nahar Monday about another mass grave, the one unearthed in November at the Defense Ministry in Yarze. The report said that half of the 20 bodies exhumed at Yarze belong to Lebanese Army soldiers.
The newspaper quoted Brigadier Nabil Kara, the head of an army commission investigating the graves, as saying that DNA testing of the bodies has revealed the identity of 10 soldiers.
Kara refrained from releasing the names of the dead until their relatives are officially notified next week.
However, he said that seven of the soldiers died on October 13, 1990, the date of a Syrian military offensive against then army commander General Michel Aoun who was waging a "War of Liberation" against Syria's domination of Lebanon. The three others died in 1984 in Al-Shahar al-Gharbi in Mount Lebanon during the Druze-Christian war, Kara added.
Kara said the identified bodies at Yarze were in army uniform. He said the other remains, which may include civilians, will be returned to the ministry graveyard and documents related to these cases will be preserved in the military archives.
DNA analyses have been making headlines for the past few months, with a new DNA police laboratory opening in Lebanon and the discovery of the remains of Michel Seurat, a French researcher kidnapped in Lebanon back in 1985, through DNA tests carried out in France after his remains were unearthed by construction workers digging at a rest stop on the airport road. - With Naharnet

Politicians agree on 'good relations' with Syria
Decisions include need to demarcate borders but fail to resolve Shebaa farms dispute
By Nada Bakri and Nafez Qawas -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Lebanese national Dialogue round 2 - Day 1
BEIRUT: As Lebanon's second round of dialogue kicked off Monday, the country's political elite agreed on the first day to establish "good relations" with Syria, according to MP Hagop Pakradonian. Speaking to The Daily Star, Pakradonian declined to say whether that meant establishing diplomatic relations with Damascus, merely saying: "Participants vowed to establish good relations."
Pakradonian added that "the atmosphere is very positive and all participants are communicating with each other very calmly and rationally including [Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid] Jumblatt and [Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah."
But, political sources close to the talks told The Daily Star that participants "agreed in the first session to follow up on the demarcation of the Syrian-Lebanese borders, establish diplomatic relations, reject all forms of tutelage and follow up on the Lebanese detainees in Syrian jails."
The sources added that the politicians have agreed on the disarmament of Palestinian factions outside refugee camps and on regulating Palestinian arms inside these camps. The second session also revolved around the controversial identity of the Shebaa Farms. Pakradonian said that each participant expressed his views and opinions regarding this issue but that no final decision was taken yet. Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri told The Daily Star that participants will adopt Lebanese maps when discussing the identity of the farms.
Hariri held a tete-a-tete with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea at the end of the second section.
Jumblatt, however, has repeatedly said that these maps were forged in 2001 to indicate the Farms are located inside the Lebanese borders, thus giving Hizbullah an alibi to keep its arms. The Chouf MP was seen walking into the talks followed by an escort carrying a large map of Lebanon. After the session, as he left, he appeared visibly annoyed.
But Pakradonian said these were maps showing Syrian mobile network antennas positioned to relay signals from Syrian mobile sim cards used within Lebanese territory, effectively infringing on Lebanese government revenue.
Speculations erupted that the chances to reach a common stance on thorny issues including the fate of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and the arms of Hizbullah are slim after Speaker Nabih Berri - the official spokesperson of the conference - refused to brief journalists on the outcome of the talks.
However a participant who wished to remain anonymous told Agence France Press that leaders "calmly discussed the need to draw the borders between Lebanon and Syria, particularly with regard to the Shebaa Farms, by appealing to the United Nations."Another politician who wished to remain unidentified also told AFP that "the question of the Shebaa Farms is linked to the drawing of Lebanese-Syrian borders and consequently to Hizbullah's arms."
"By establishing that these 'Farms' are indeed Lebanese, an armed Hizbullah fighting to recover them would then be legitimate," the source added. Although the presidential issue was not discussed, Geagea said this matter "cannot tolerate any delay."
"We hope that it is resolved at the dialogue table or else we will continue [to push for the ousting of Lahoud] with all available means," said Geagea following the first session. The dialogue kicked off on March 2 but was adjourned a few days later after Jumblatt attacked Lahoud and Hizbullah from Washington. But Berri said the time-out was aimed at holding further consultations and discussions before taking final decisions.
"It must succeed and we should use all our capabilities to avoid failure and this is everyone's responsibility. This conference presents a precious opportunity for national salvation," Berri told As-Safir newspaper.
The newspaper also reported that participants have drafted a text during the first round of the talks concerning the disarmament of Palestinian factions outside refugee camps and enforcing regulations with regards to holding arms inside the camps.
The report added that politicians have even agreed to claim the Lebanese identity of the Shebaa Farms before the talks were adjourned. But the majority of politicians opposed Berri's decision to announce reaching these positions, insisting that the presidency issue be resolved before any announcements. Political sources said that if participants fail to reach an agreement, the speaker will refrain from holding press conferences and will instead adjourn the talks to give some space for further side discussions until all issues are resolved. The sources added that follow-up committees might be created to hold discussions and call to resume talks when final agreements are reached.
Also in comments to As-Safir newspaper, Premier Fouad Siniora said the dispute over the Shebaa Farms' identity can only be solved through Syria's cooperation with Lebanon and arbitration by the United Nations. "Political declarations and goodwill gestures are not enough. There should be joint steps and this is what the meeting today will decide on," As-Safir quoted Siniora as saying. This comes at a time when various politicians and businessmen warned a failure in the dialogue would lead to an economic and social crisis. "The economy has suffered a lot and any delay will compound the problems. If we did not agree today we will agree in days, weeks or months, but every delay will increase the cost to Lebanon and to the Lebanese," said Siniora.

Israel claims Hizbullah planning attacks, announces state of alert
Mofaz: it's an attempt to deflect attention from Syria
By Mohammed Zaatari -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
SOUTH LEBANON: The Israeli Army announced a state of high alert on the Lebanese borders on Sunday, claiming new fears of an attack by Hizbullah. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Monday Israel has heightened an alert along its border with Lebanon based on intelligence reports that Hizbullah is planning to carry out attacks.
"Hizbullah, with Syria's backing, intends to carry out attacks against Israel in an effort to deflect world attention away from Syria as the United Nations investigates allegations that it was behind the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Mofaz told Israel TV. "We have intelligence that is well-founded enough that they are intending to escalate the situation even as far as kidnapping Israeli soldiers," Mofaz said. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers has always been an expressed goal of the resistance. Israeli Senior Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad said "chances of a Hizbullah offensive were higher at the moment because of the Jewish Purim holiday starting Monday night, general elections in two weeks and possibly the interests of Hizbullah patron, Iran, subject of a UN Security Council debate over its nuclear program, scheduled for Monday."
"It could be to serve Iran by diverting attention from the growing international pressure," Gilad told an Israeli radio channel.
Israeli radio and television channels reported that the army "had gone on the maximum state of alert" to thwart any new offensive across the border ahead of the Israeli legislative elections on March 28.
A report published Monday on the Web site of the Israeli Haaretz newspaper said: "The Israeli Defense Forces went on high alert on Sunday evening along the northern border with Lebanon due to warnings of a possible Hizbullah attack."
"The decision was made following a meeting held by the Israeli Northern Command. The [Israeli Army] Spokesman said Israel sees the Lebanese government as responsible for all hostile activity along the border," it continued.
"The last time such a step was taken, in November 2005, the raised alert did not deter Hizbullah from attempting to carry out a cross-border attack," it added. The Israeli Army also closed roads running parallel to the border and farmers have been told not to head to adjoining fields, the Israeli state television said. A spokesman for the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Milos Strugar, told reporters that the situation was "tense along the Blue Line."
He added that UNIFIL was in contact with all the concerned parties and had asked them for "restraint." The Daily Star toured several border towns, where citizens said they noted a minor Israeli activity across the border.
While dozens of Israeli and Asian farmers were working in orchards 100 meters away of the Lebanese borders, Israeli police vehicles were hiding behind the trees and inspecting the borders through binoculars.When some reporters tried to photograph the farmers, they took refuge in the orchards. A Lebanese worker in the town of Adayseh facing the Marghalyoun settlement said none of the settlers showed up during the day, "because maybe they were afraid."
UNIFIL's Indian battalion also circulated patrols to inspect the borders. Loyalty to the Resistance MP Pierre Sarhal said Israel was trying to "affect the Lebanese national dialogue by threatening the resistance," adding that the Israeli measures might represent "a cover for attacks Israel was planning to carry out against Lebanon."While he stressed "the resistance's right to defend its people," Sarhal said the Lebanese people "will face all who are looking to strike at the country's security and stability."

Israel claims Hizbullah planning attacks, announces state of alert
Mofaz: it's an attempt to deflect attention from Syria
By Mohammed Zaatari -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
SOUTH LEBANON: The Israeli Army announced a state of high alert on the Lebanese borders on Sunday, claiming new fears of an attack by Hizbullah. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Monday Israel has heightened an alert along its border with Lebanon based on intelligence reports that Hizbullah is planning to carry out attacks. "Hizbullah, with Syria's backing, intends to carry out attacks against Israel in an effort to deflect world attention away from Syria as the United Nations investigates allegations that it was behind the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Mofaz told Israel TV.
"We have intelligence that is well-founded enough that they are intending to escalate the situation even as far as kidnapping Israeli soldiers," Mofaz said. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers has always been an expressed goal of the resistance.
Israeli Senior Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad said "chances of a Hizbullah offensive were higher at the moment because of the Jewish Purim holiday starting Monday night, general elections in two weeks and possibly the interests of Hizbullah patron, Iran, subject of a UN Security Council debate over its nuclear program, scheduled for Monday."
"It could be to serve Iran by diverting attention from the growing international pressure," Gilad told an Israeli radio channel.
Israeli radio and television channels reported that the army "had gone on the maximum state of alert" to thwart any new offensive across the border ahead of the Israeli legislative elections on March 28. A report published Monday on the Web site of the Israeli Haaretz newspaper said: "The Israeli Defense Forces went on high alert on Sunday evening along the northern border with Lebanon due to warnings of a possible Hizbullah attack."
"The decision was made following a meeting held by the Israeli Northern Command. The [Israeli Army] Spokesman said Israel sees the Lebanese government as responsible for all hostile activity along the border," it continued.
"The last time such a step was taken, in November 2005, the raised alert did not deter Hizbullah from attempting to carry out a cross-border attack," it added. The Israeli Army also closed roads running parallel to the border and farmers have been told not to head to adjoining fields, the Israeli state television said. A spokesman for the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Milos Strugar, told reporters that the situation was "tense along the Blue Line."
He added that UNIFIL was in contact with all the concerned parties and had asked them for "restraint." The Daily Star toured several border towns, where citizens said they noted a minor Israeli activity across the border. While dozens of Israeli and Asian farmers were working in orchards 100 meters away of the Lebanese borders, Israeli police vehicles were hiding behind the trees and inspecting the borders through binoculars. When some reporters tried to photograph the farmers, they took refuge in the orchards. A Lebanese worker in the town of Adayseh facing the Marghalyoun settlement said none of the settlers showed up during the day, "because maybe they were afraid." UNIFIL's Indian battalion also circulated patrols to inspect the borders.Loyalty to the Resistance MP Pierre Sarhal said Israel was trying to "affect the Lebanese national dialogue by threatening the resistance," adding that the Israeli measures might represent "a cover for attacks Israel was planning to carry out against Lebanon."While he stressed "the resistance's right to defend its people," Sarhal said the Lebanese people "will face all who are looking to strike at the country's security and stability."

Israel claims Hizbullah planning attacks, announces state of alert
Mofaz: it's an attempt to deflect attention from Syria
By Mohammed Zaatari -Daily Star staff- Tuesday, March 14, 2006
SOUTH LEBANON: The Israeli Army announced a state of high alert on the Lebanese borders on Sunday, claiming new fears of an attack by Hizbullah. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Monday Israel has heightened an alert along its border with Lebanon based on intelligence reports that Hizbullah is planning to carry out attacks.
"Hizbullah, with Syria's backing, intends to carry out attacks against Israel in an effort to deflect world attention away from Syria as the United Nations investigates allegations that it was behind the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Mofaz told Israel TV. "We have intelligence that is well-founded enough that they are intending to escalate the situation even as far as kidnapping Israeli soldiers," Mofaz said. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers has always been an expressed goal of the resistance. Israeli Senior Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad said "chances of a Hizbullah offensive were higher at the moment because of the Jewish Purim holiday starting Monday night, general elections in two weeks and possibly the interests of Hizbullah patron, Iran, subject of a UN Security Council debate over its nuclear program, scheduled for Monday."
"It could be to serve Iran by diverting attention from the growing international pressure," Gilad told an Israeli radio channel.
Israeli radio and television channels reported that the army "had gone on the maximum state of alert" to thwart any new offensive across the border ahead of the Israeli legislative elections on March 28.
A report published Monday on the Web site of the Israeli Haaretz newspaper said: "The Israeli Defense Forces went on high alert on Sunday evening along the northern border with Lebanon due to warnings of a possible Hizbullah attack." "The decision was made following a meeting held by the Israeli Northern Command. The [Israeli Army] Spokesman said Israel sees the Lebanese government as responsible for all hostile activity along the border," it continued. "The last time such a step was taken, in November 2005, the raised alert did not deter Hizbullah from attempting to carry out a cross-border attack," it added.
The Israeli Army also closed roads running parallel to the border and farmers have been told not to head to adjoining fields, the Israeli state television said. A spokesman for the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Milos Strugar, told reporters that the situation was "tense along the Blue Line."
He added that UNIFIL was in contact with all the concerned parties and had asked them for "restraint." The Daily Star toured several border towns, where citizens said they noted a minor Israeli activity across the border. While dozens of Israeli and Asian farmers were working in orchards 100 meters away of the Lebanese borders, Israeli police vehicles were hiding behind the trees and inspecting the borders through binoculars. When some reporters tried to photograph the farmers, they took refuge in the orchards. A Lebanese worker in the town of Adayseh facing the Marghalyoun settlement said none of the settlers showed up during the day, "because maybe they were afraid."UNIFIL's Indian battalion also circulated patrols to inspect the borders. Loyalty to the Resistance MP Pierre Sarhal said Israel was trying to "affect the Lebanese national dialogue by threatening the resistance," adding that the Israeli measures might represent "a cover for attacks Israel was planning to carry out against Lebanon."While he stressed "the resistance's right to defend its people," Sarhal said the Lebanese people "will face all who are looking to strike at the country's security and stability."

Sfeir asks electoral law committee members to try again
By Maroun Khoury -Daily Star correspondent
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
BKIRKI: The Maronite League voiced its concern at the work of the committee in charge of drafting a new electoral law, and urged committee members to abide by the Constitution, "which stipulates that Muslims and Christians should have equal representation, in line with the National Accord."In a statement issued Monday, the league said Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir hoped "the new electoral law will divide districts in a way that promotes coexistence and guarantees fair representation of all factions."The league urged Michel Tabet and Ziad Baroud, who withdrew last week, "to return to the committee." President of the National Commission for Drafting a New Eectoral Law and former minister Fouad Butros was surprised at claims that some members in the Reform and Change bloc believe that Syria wants to regain control over the new parliamentary electoral law. He said: "As history can tell, no one controlled me during the past 40 years, neither Syria nor any other party."Butros was speaking on Monday following a meeting with Sfeir. He said that the commission has completed 80percent of drafting the new law "but there remains one or two points related to some districts." Butros said that he will hold a press conference next week to explain details about all what has been happening lately with the commission.
Reform and Change MP Walid Khoury had earlier voiced his bloc's disappointment at the work of the committee, adding: "Such divisions of electoral districts are very dangerous and remind us of Syrian tutelage over the elections." Speaking following his meeting with the prelate, Khoury stressed the committee should present one draft law instead of several, adding that the new law should fairly represent all Lebanese factions.

Detainee supporters see Hizbullah as best hope
By Rym Ghazal -aily Star staff
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
BEIRUT: The families of those detained and unaccounted for in Israeli prisons protested on Monday as a show of support for "the resistance," sending a message to "some of the politicians" in the national dialogue who are pushing for the disarmament of Hizbullah. "Without the resistance, any hope for the release of our detainees will be lost forever," said Bassam Kantar, the brother of Samir Kantar, who has been held in an Israeli prison for almost 27 years - longer than any other Lebanese detainee - and who is known as the "dean" of the detainees.
"We heard that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has asked to look over the file of those detained in Israel ... which is truly strange coming from him," said Kantar who, along with about 30 protesters, demonstrated near the United Nations building Monday. The building is the site of a long-term sit-in by family and friends of inmates detained in Syrian prisons.
"Did he destroy the hundreds of files of those missing and kidnapped at the War Council, where he himself handed over to Israel some those detained now?" Kantar said.
The other politician criticized by the protesters was Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, who announced last month that the disputed Shebaa Farms was Syrian and displayed to the media a Lebanese army map from 1962 illustrating the point. "We condemn the latest statements of Walid Jumblatt in Washington, where he said Lebanon can't remain tied to the cause of those detained in Israel, thereby sacrificing the detainees," said Kantar.
Samir Kantar, Naseem Nasr, Yehya Sakaf, Mohammed Fran, Ibrahim Zin al-Deen, Mohammed Hawa and Rachid Najim were some of the detainees listed by Kantar whom he said Jumblatt "would be sacrificing."
"If your sons were detained, would you give up on them?" he said. Kantar revealed that he will be going again to the Human Rights Commission next week to lobby for the detainees' case. "If the government puts some weight behind me, the case of the detainees could be finally resolved," he said. "My brother's fate will never be made known without the help of Hizbullah, and the same will be the case for other detainees, as Israel will never just give them up."Israel has said that it would not release Kantar before it received information about Ron Arad, an Israeli air force navigator who went missing after his plane was shot down over Lebanon in 1986. His fate remains unknown.

Israel claims Hizbullah planning attacks, announces state of alert
Mofaz: it's an attempt to deflect attention from Syria
By Mohammed Zaatari -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
SOUTH LEBANON: The Israeli Army announced a state of high alert on the Lebanese borders on Sunday, claiming new fears of an attack by Hizbullah. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Monday Israel has heightened an alert along its border with Lebanon based on intelligence reports that Hizbullah is planning to carry out attacks.
"Hizbullah, with Syria's backing, intends to carry out attacks against Israel in an effort to deflect world attention away from Syria as the United Nations investigates allegations that it was behind the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Mofaz told Israel TV. "We have intelligence that is well-founded enough that they are intending to escalate the situation even as far as kidnapping Israeli soldiers," Mofaz said. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers has always been an expressed goal of the resistance. Israeli Senior Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad said "chances of a Hizbullah offensive were higher at the moment because of the Jewish Purim holiday starting Monday night, general elections in two weeks and possibly the interests of Hizbullah patron, Iran, subject of a UN Security Council debate over its nuclear program, scheduled for Monday."
"It could be to serve Iran by diverting attention from the growing international pressure," Gilad told an Israeli radio channel.
Israeli radio and television channels reported that the army "had gone on the maximum state of alert" to thwart any new offensive across the border ahead of the Israeli legislative elections on March 28. A report published Monday on the Web site of the Israeli Haaretz newspaper said: "The Israeli Defense Forces went on high alert on Sunday evening along the northern border with Lebanon due to warnings of a possible Hizbullah attack."
"The decision was made following a meeting held by the Israeli Northern Command. The [Israeli Army] Spokesman said Israel sees the Lebanese government as responsible for all hostile activity along the border," it continued.
"The last time such a step was taken, in November 2005, the raised alert did not deter Hizbullah from attempting to carry out a cross-border attack," it added. The Israeli Army also closed roads running parallel to the border and farmers have been told not to head to adjoining fields, the Israeli state television said. A spokesman for the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Milos Strugar, told reporters that the situation was "tense along the Blue Line."
He added that UNIFIL was in contact with all the concerned parties and had asked them for "restraint." The Daily Star toured several border towns, where citizens said they noted a minor Israeli activity across the border.
While dozens of Israeli and Asian farmers were working in orchards 100 meters away of the Lebanese borders, Israeli police vehicles were hiding behind the trees and inspecting the borders through binoculars. When some reporters tried to photograph the farmers, they took refuge in the orchards. A Lebanese worker in the town of Adayseh facing the Marghalyoun settlement said none of the settlers showed up during the day, "because maybe they were afraid."
UNIFIL's Indian battalion also circulated patrols to inspect the borders. Loyalty to the Resistance MP Pierre Sarhal said Israel was trying to "affect the Lebanese national dialogue by threatening the resistance," adding that the Israeli measures might represent "a cover for attacks Israel was planning to carry out against Lebanon."
While he stressed "the resistance's right to defend its people," Sarhal said the Lebanese people "will face all who are looking to strike at the country's security and stability."

Time for Arabs to get off the bench and play the Washington game
Tuesday, March 14, 2006- Editorial- Daily Star
Many people in the Arab world are still struggling to understand how a sealed deal for Dubai Ports World to take over operations of U.S. ports was suddenly scuppered in its final stages. The U.A.E.'s Central Bank governor complained that the deal had been defeated because its opponents had "mixed economic and investment matters" with "politics." But this revelation should hardly come as a surprise. If there is any place where reason is distorted by the lens of politics it is Washington's Capitol Hill. Lawmakers who supported the deal have attributed its failure to lack of knowledge about the agreement. Indeed, politicians are often less informed than we would like them to be. This is one of the reasons that special-interest groups invest so much time and money in educating (i.e. lobbying) members of Congress about issues of concern. The most powerful foreign policy lobby in the United States, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, better known by its acronym AIPAC, has been actively educating U.S. congressmen since 1954. According to AIPAC's Web site, the group holds over 2,000 meetings with members of Congress and helps pass more than 100 pro-Israel legislative initiatives each year. Through its efforts, AIPAC helped build a case for the war on Iraq and is now actively shaping U.S. foreign policy on the Palestinian Authority, Syria and Iran. AIPAC has been so effective in garnering congressional support for Israel that no congressman would dare to deliver a public speech criticizing the country, in the way senators and representatives lined up to bash the Dubai ports deal. Perhaps if the Arabs had a powerful lobby, Senator Frank Lautenberg, for example, would have hesitated before comparing the government of Dubai to the Devil, as he did during a recent campaign rally.
What's even more noteworthy is that AIPAC manages to protect Israeli interests on an annual budget of just $33.4 million. This amount of money is a drop in the bucket for Arab investors, considering that the Dubai ports deal alone was valued at $6.85 billion. It is easy to imagine how the Dubai Ports World deal could have turned out differently if Arabs had a strong lobby to protect their interests. Although there are a few worthwhile fledgling organizations trying to fill this void, the reality on the ground in Washington is that Arabs, through their absence, have failed to protect their interests and have given other groups a free hand in influencing U.S. lawmaking. The result, as we have seen, has often been unfair or unbalanced policy.
Nobody said that the rules that govern the game of politics in Washington are fair. But Arabs do have a choice: either continue to sit on the bench, or go out and compete with the players who are currently dominating the game.

Them and us
By Nahla Atiyah
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
As nahla sees it A car mechanic recently thanked the authorities for leaving gaping holes and mighty bumps on the road. He says it feeds his modest repair business and helps him make ends meet.His refreshing frankness raises more questions than it answers. Why is he so needy and why are the roads so neglected?Why do we allow ourselves to be so abused?
Our politicians shy away from talking about what really matters, and the gap deepens between them and us.
Our tired cars crawl in thick traffic along ugly over-flies with puddles of stagnant grey water underneath and twisted dusty-caked iron rods dangling from above. One car per passenger for wont of public transport, and all comes to a halt on a rainy day. Petrol prices soar, sparking a migration to more lethal substitutes playing havoc with our frail, limp, scanty lungs.
Relentless power cuts fatally jolt our fridges, freezers, TVs and Hi-Fi's, and seals in our acute psychosis as we're caught unawares in narrow confined lifts with uncomfortable strangers. We all know a positive attitude is the only thing that pulls you out of all sorts of adversity. But it's a real challenge to stay positive at the edge of darkness, awfully lonely before our leaders' muted response. Watch their impressive cars gingerly defying our snail-paced crawl. Thick hairy intimidating arms stick out of accompanying vehicles, unceremoniously waving us sideways to secure open passage. Think of their petrol bills, more likely footed by some official department or perk. And their comfortable metropolitan Beirut homes, electricity shining round the clock. And today, listen to them pontificating on the etymology of this or that word, marking their territory and, in the process, paralyzing us with a sentence. I thought all this would be a serious setback, but in fact it helped. It made me want to step into an altogether new sphere, exploring alternatives.

Friend for President
So I went looking. For someone younger, sprightlier. One who'd appreciate the different cultures of his country and is able to secure for it positive coverage worldwide. One who's opposed to injustice and oppression and sectarianism.
And I found him- a literae humaniores, fluent in no less than 7 languages, with working knowledge of Persian, Russian, Latin, Japanese and more. To his credit, over 20 published books ("publish or perish", said academia), and spirited lectures and addresses to distinguished audiences from the world's highest platforms.
A Maronite- an authority on Islamic law, he's the recipient of many awards and accolades, deeply involved here and abroad with issues on human rights, crimes against humanity, the democratic process and the rule of law.
His website shows him a smiling family man with son in tow. Nonchalantly stylish, his indomitable Einstein mane now neatly trimmed to better suit his new public persona. But I was met with a muted reception. Friends questioned his capacity to muster elusive pragmatic solutions. For all his concerned citizenship, could he meander through the realities of the local scene and survive? Not creative enough, was the verdict. This threw me. Couldn't a man of culture be also streetwise, able to say anything to anyone? A social engineer with moral worth, a brain box feeling for the grassroots while propelling us to economic stardom. This, to me, must be the prerequisite for leadership. Unless we're talking polemics. Them and us in happy rebounds. And we'll keep keeping on, energizer bunnies flipping along, no matter what happens.Nahla Atiyah, WFA's vice president, is adviser on corporate affairs, could be reached at: asnahlaseesit@yahoo.com

US sanctions on Syria politically motivated: minister
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
Monday, March 13, DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria's finance minister on Monday dismissed U.S. sanctions against the country's largest bank, tightened last week, as politically motivated and without financial justification. Mohammad al-Hussein told reporters that Damascus would continue with financial sector reform that is attracting foreign investment despite Washington's latest move.
Weekly Roundup
The week's events from around the world, captured in pictures.The United States on Thursday told U.S. financial institutions to terminate all correspondent accounts involving the Commercial Bank of Syria and its Syrian Lebanese Commercial Bank subsidiary. Almost two years earlier, it had designated Commercial Bank of Syria, which handles 70 percent of the country's foreign currency transfers, a "primary money-laundering concern" and sought to bar its access to the U.S. banking system.
"The background and motives are political without any financial reasons. Let them face us if they have them," Hussein said at the opening of an Islamic banking conference. "We in Syria affirm that this decision and its timing are fundamentally political. We will continue opening up our banking sector, proving that economic reform is an internal issue we are intent on pursuing," Hussein said. In a move to safeguard Syrian assets and ensure currency flows, the Syrian government switched all its foreign currency dealings from dollars to euros last month. The Commercial Bank of Syria also switched its dealings to euros.
PRIORITIES
Although banking relations with U.S. banks have suffered, Hussein said European banks have continued to deal with Syria and the country's foreign transfers were proceeding smoothly, helped by the entry of foreign banks into Syria two years ago.
Hussein said amendments were being made to legislation that opened the financial sector after decades of state control to overcome any hurdles slowing down the expansion of banks and foreign investment.
Islamic banking and insurance laws passed last year have already attracted international interest and several foreign banks and insurance companies operating on Islamic principles are planning to open in Syrian this year, the minister said.
"The Syrian government is fully convinced that banking, insurance and investment have the priority. We have already become on par with the region as far as legislation is concerned, although more steps need to be taken," he said.
Arab bankers say Syria, which is also facing international pressure over its role in Lebanon, has coped well with the U.S. sanctions and pressure by western powers, having stabilized the currency as it came under pressure last year.
Heavyweight regional banks, such as Arab Bank and Banque Audi, have proceeded with expansion plans in Syria despite the U.S. sanctions, attracted by a country without a private banking sector for the last four decades.
Like the rest of the economy, the banks have been operating amid uncertainty, with a U.N. investigation implicating Syrian officials in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri a year ago.
The U.N. Security Council has threatened unspecified action against Syria if it is found uncooperative with the inquiry.
A regional banker, who declined to be named, said sanctions on the scale imposed on Iraq from 1990-2003 would be almost impossible for the economy and banking system to survive.
"One cannot dismiss sanctions that could hit trade," the banker said. "However unlikely, an embargo of this magnitude contributes to uncertainty in the short term."

As Syria's Influence in Lebanon Wanes, Iran Moves In
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN-New York Times
Published: March 13, 2006
BEIRUT, Lebanon, March 6 — Nearly a year ago, not long after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, who was twice prime minister of Lebanon, Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon, unleashing a wave of patriotism here that prompted many to say that the Lebanese might finally be able to take control of their destiny. But the intensity of the moment and the rush of emotions eclipsed at least one important and largely unanswerable question: With Syria gone, or at least its troops gone, who would fill the power vacuum? At the time, Iran did not appear to be the answer. But that is what is happening, according to government officials, political leaders and political analysts here. Iran, long a powerful player in Lebanon, has been able to increase its influence, partly through its ties to the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. That has given Tehran a stronger hand to play in its confrontation with the United States and Europe over its nuclear program.
Should the nuclear showdown go badly for Iran, the government could rely on its surrogates in Lebanon as well as its influence in Iraq, or use oil for a weapon. In Lebanon, the Iranians could contribute to the kind of retribution they have promised as a payback, from a strike across the border into Israel, to a more forceful flexing that could paralyze the Lebanese government, political analysts and government officials said. While Iran helped create, finance and train Hezbollah, it was Syria that settled scores and managed relations between Shiite factions and Palestinians throughout Lebanon. Syria was a filter between Tehran and Hezbollah, and now that Syria has been uprooted, Iran and Hezbollah can work much more closely.
Members of Hezbollah have become members of the government for the first time, magnifying the importance of the ties between Iran and the Lebanese Shiite movement. That is the downside for the United States, and for Lebanon as well, officials here said. Unity remains elusive as Lebanon continues to be a playing field for foreign interests.
"There is without any doubt a growing Iranian influence not only in Lebanon but in the whole region," said Nassib Lahoud, a Maronite Christian who is a former ambassador to the United States and a legislator. "We are trying to build normal relations with everyone, and we refuse to turn Lebanon into a battlefield for regional and international powers."
Political leaders met here recently for what was billed as the start of a national dialogue, a chance to try to resolve long-simmering disputes. There was to be discussion about disarming militias like Hezbollah and figuring out what to do about President Émile Lahoud, a staunch ally of Syria, who has clung to his office even as his ability to govern has withered under pressure to resign.
But even before the meetings began, government officials conceded that Lebanon's ability to resolve some of its most vexing domestic conflicts would depend on decisions made in Tehran and Washington. Charles Rizk, Lebanon's minister of justice, said that as Iran's and Hezbollah's influence grew in Lebanon, the country's hopes for unity hinged on whether Iran and the United States would at least agree to talk to each other. It is an idea, officials here acknowledge, that appears as remote as a Syria-Israel peace deal. But as a nation unusually susceptible to outside influences, officials said, that is Lebanon's reality.
"I hope that by America inaugurating a process of détente with Iran, this will reverberate into more consensus in Lebanon," Mr. Rizk said. "This is the only chance for us to solve our problems." For years, Iran had been a kind of second lieutenant to Syria, important, influential and spiritually linked to the Hezbollah militia in a way that the Alawite leadership of Syria never could have been. But with Syrian troops dug in, and Syrian intelligence agents running the show, Tehran's role was often more behind the scenes. In the 1980's, during the Lebanese civil war, Syria established its dominant position when it brokered a deal between the Shiite militias, Amal and Hezbollah, and settled the feuds in the Palestinian camps. After that, Iran found itself one step removed from the surrogates it helped create.  Then, suddenly, Syria found itself in retreat.
Iran saw an opportunity and began to press ahead with its established relationships in Lebanon, and with trying to build new ones. Lebanese officials and academics and religious leaders were increasingly feeling the generosity of the Iranian state, officials said, with invitations to conferences in Iran and offers of aid.
Forum: The Middle East
Lebanese officials say that Iran has been careful not to appear heavy-handed, so as not to alienate Sunni, Druse and Christian factions. After years under the fist of Damascus, many people here said that Iranian power was preferable because of geography — Tehran is far away — and because the Iranians appeared to be more intent on winning allegiances, not forcing them. "Iran is omnipresent in Lebanon, not only with Hezbollah," said Ridwan al-Sayyid, an adviser to the prime minister and a professor of Islamic studies at Lebanese University. "They are strong, not like Syria, but they shape their presence in different ways. They are helping many, many organizations — Sunnis, Shias and Christians. They are benevolent."
This is not the first time that the United States has seen Iran benefit, however unintentionally, from events that were initially regarded as strengthening the Bush administration's hand. With each American military strike in the region, first against the Taliban in Afghanistan and then against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran has found its influence in the region grow as its enemies have been defeated by American military might, political analysts said. "Iran now has many more cards in confronting the United States than the United States has in confronting Iran," said Hassan Nafaa, a professor of political science at Cairo University. Now it appears that Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon increases the Iranian mullah's influence. A recent political alliance between Hezbollah and Gen. Michel Aoun, leader of the largest Christian bloc in Parliament, was viewed by one political analyst with close ties to the government as a "tactical victory" for Iran. "It's because Syria has been deflated very much, Iran is rising as a force," Mr. Rizk said. Ahmed Fatfat, the acting interior minister, said, "I believe that Iran's role in Lebanon has become stronger, and if you look at its relationship with Hezbollah it is stronger."
What this means, officials said, is that as long as the United States and Iran are at odds Lebanon will remain, at best, in limbo. Lebanon will be unable to resolve its own domestic problems while Iran continues to try to build up its strategic position.
"If there is an Iranian-American clash, it will be played out here," Mr. Fatfat said.

Syria arrests dissidents on anniversary of clashes
(AFP)13 March 2006
DAMASCUS — Security forces yesterday arrested a former opposition MP and several Kurdish demonstrators who were marking the second anniversary of deadly clashes in northern Syria, human rights advocates said.
Riad Seif was detained along with at least five members of the Kurdish Democratic Progressive Party during a sit-in near a Damascus government building, said a statement by the Syrian Organisation for Human Rights.
Security forces beat and then detained some of the demonstrators, after three of those taking part in the sit-in attempted to deliver a message to Prime Minister Naji Otri, said human rights lawyer Anwar Bunni, adding that several demonstrators had been wounded.The Syrian Organisation for Human Rights also said some demonstrators had been wounded by the security forces.

Group tied to Al-Qaida holds position near Lebanese border
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent 13/03/06
Usbat-al-Ansar, the Lebanon-based Palestinian organization that maintains close ties with some of the Al-Qaida networks, has a front-line command post relatively close to the border with Israel, in the Ain el Helweh refugee camp.
According to reports over the weekend, the Lebanese army arrested, in various locations around the country, eight members of a terrorist group. Half are Palestinians, and the other half are Lebanese. Security sources in Lebanon said that the members of the network are believed to be responsible for the most recent round of Katyusha rocket fire on the Galilee last December.
Following the rocket fire, Al-Qaida in Iraq, headed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, published an announcement in which it claimed responsibility for the action. It was the first time an organization affiliated with Al-Qaida had taken responsibility for a direct attack on Israel. Immediately after the Katyusha fire, Israel had only partial intelligence with regard to those responsible for the attack. In response, the Israel Air Force bombed a base belonging to Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, and it was subsequently claimed that members of Usbat al-Ansar had trained at the base and had received instruction from PFLP-GC activists. Meanwhile, it emerged that the organization has a command post in the Ain el Helweh refugee camp also. This command post has not been attacked on the grounds that it lies in a densely populated area and that bombing it is likely to lead to numerous civilian casualties. Israeli security sources say that the Usbat al-Ansar members are Palestinians who initiated ties with al-Zarqawi's activists in order to receive assistance. Israeli officials are concerned about the trend, over the past year, of the operations of various networks identified with Al-Qaida moving westward - to Lebanon, Jordan and Sinai. The officials believe that this trend will gradually manifest itself in more attempted terror attacks against Israel also.

Lebanon talks resume but breakthrough hopes dim
Mon Mar 13, 2006
By Nadim Ladki-BEIRUT (Reuters) - Rival politicians resumed on Monday talks aimed at ending Lebanon's political crisis, with leaders warning failure to resolve contentious issues would damage an ailing economy and worsen divisions.
Political sources said chances were very slim the leaders would agree on two key issues: disarming Hizbollah guerrillas and the fate of the pro-Syrian president, while some progress was possible in bridging some other differences.
The "national dialogue conference", the largest top-level political gathering since the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, was adjourned abruptly on March 7 after a row over fiery comments made by an anti-Syrian leader on a visit to Washington.
But the breathing space appeared to have done little to end sharp differences between pro- and anti- Syrian politicians despite warnings that failure could plunge the country deeper into political and economic crises.
"It must succeed and we should use all our capabilities to avoid failure... This conference presents a precious opportunity for national salvation," Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Syria who called the talks, told as-Safir newspaper.
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a member of the majority anti-Syrian coalition, warned the country's economy could not tolerate many more setbacks. "The economy has suffered a lot and any delay will add to the problems...," Siniora said. "If we did not agree today we will agree in days, weeks or months, but every delay will increase the cost for Lebanon and the Lebanese."
Lebanon is grappling with a public debt of more than $36 billion (20.85 billion pounds)-- nearly double its gross domestic product. It is banking on an aid conference in Beirut later this year to ease the debt burden and kickstart the economy.
Security was tight around the parliament in central Beirut where the talks were being held. The killing of ex-Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri 13 months ago has plunged Lebanon into a political crisis. Mass protests blaming Syria for the murder forced Damascus to bow to international pressure and quit Lebanon two months later. A wave of bombings and assassinations has since raised fears the country was sliding into chaos.
THORNY ISSUES
The fate of President Emile Lahoud is among the thorniest issues at the roundtable talks; he is under pressure from anti-Syrian politicians to resign but has vowed to see out his term, extended for three years in 2004 under Syrian pressure.
Even more contentious is a U.N. Security Council resolution demanding the pro-Syrian Hizbollah disarm. Some Lebanese believe the Shi'ite group should lay down its guns and stick to politics but others see it as legitimate armed resistance to Israel.
The talks appeared to be on the verge of collapse after anti-Syrian Druze leader Walid Jumblatt called from Washington for Hizbollah to be disarmed.
The comments prompted Hizbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to walk out of the talks in protest. But Nasrallah, along with Jumblatt and other top leaders, Christian and Muslim, returned to the talks on schedule.
Hizbollah's guerrilla attacks were instrumental in ending Israel's 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000. Hizbollah says it has the right to keep its arms, partly to liberate the Shebaa Farms, an Israeli-occupied border territory.
The group says the area is Lebanese, but the U.N. maintains it is Syrian, unless Beirut and Damascus amend their border, and that the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon is complete.
Lebanese leaders are expected to agree on Lebanon's claim to the Shebaa Farms, which would go some way to legitimating Hizbollah's arms, but they remain split on whether the tiny strip should be liberated by force or through diplomacy.

IDF on high alert in north
Farmers working near border fence forbidden to go to work Monday due to fear of terror attacks, kidnappings by Hizbullah; army expected to maintain high alert until after elections
The IDF's alert level along the northern border reached a high Monday morning for fear of escalation on the part of Hizbullah. Farmers working near the border fence were forbidden to leave for work for fear of confrontations with the terror organization's members stationed not far from the fence. Four road sections along the border with Lebanon were closed to traffic by the army and police. The decision to raise the alert level of security forces deployed along the border was made at the end of a meeting between security and intelligence officials at the Northern Command. Terror warnings ahead of Purim / Efrat Weiss Police place thousands of officers in city centers, Northern Command warns of Hizbullah attacks in north; firefighters ask public to be careful from firecrackers
Full story
A large number of security vehicles patrolled the closed road sections Monday. However, residents of the northern communities continued to live their lives as usual. The high alert is expected to be maintained until Election Day, in about two weeks. Senior army officials expressed their fear that Hizbullah, supported by Syria or Iran, would try to escalate the situation at the border. There is currently a large number of security warnings on the terror organization's attempts to kidnap soldiers stationed along the border, as well as to fire toward the posts. Security coordinators at the communities bordering the fence have already been briefed on how their communities should function in case of an infiltration attempt or fire from Lebanon.
'Beirut responsible for any escalation' Four years have passed since the terror attack at the Metzuba junction in the western Galilee, in which five civilians and one soldier were killed. Two terrorist had crossed the border fence from Lebanon to Israel near Kibbutz Hanita using a ladder. They stood on a hill overlooking the Kibbutz Metzuba junction and opened fire at vehicles.
The terrorist were killed following a difficult battle against IDF soldiers who were deployed to the area.
Since the incident, the army has boosted its use of technological means along the border fence, as well as motorized and infantry patrols of the area in an attempt to prevent a recurrence of similar infiltration incidents.
"The Lebanese government must understand that any attempt to hurt IDF soldiers are Israeli citizens touring or living near the border would be appropriately retaliated by us. The responsibility for any escalation lies with the Beirut government, which has to understand that it is time to apply its sovereignty also on the south of the state," an IDF officer said.
An army source added that "Israeli residents can come and safely spend time at the north, and we on our part will provide them, as well as the residents living along the border, with the possibility to maintain a routine life.

Interview: The Hezbollah and Lebanon's future
By Shinkichi Suzuki and Hind el Hallage
Special to World Peace Herald
Published March 10, 2006
CAIRO -- Lebanese Druze leader Waleed Jumblatt recently called for the disarmament of Hezbollah's military wing and the election of a president who was not "a puppet like [current President Emil] Lahoud." The Lebanese political scene has begun to change as different Lebanese factions call on Hezbollah to dismantle its arms.
In his interview for World Peace Herald, Gamal A. Gawad Soltan, professor of Syria-Lebanon studies of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), provides a political analysis of the current situation in Lebanon. He looks at Hezbollah, Saad Hariri [son of the assassinated former prime minister], Jumblatt, and Christian opposition leader, General Michel Aoun.
Q: Democracy cannot function if any one organization has excessive power. Hezbollah still maintains its arms. Is there any possibility that Hezbollah will disarm? What do Hariri or Aoun think about Hezbollah?
A: To begin with, Hezbollah will not disarm by any means in the near future. This is the main issue that is dividing Lebanon now. You have the following configuration of power in Lebanon: the Shiites, Hezbollah, and the [Christian] Amal movement on the one hand, and other figures on the other.
These other figures are very concerned that Hezbollah has its own militia, and that it is even stronger than the Lebanese army. They feel that is not fair, because they all had to disarm after the civil war. Yet, it was only Hezbollah who was allowed to keep its arms. This was justified for years as Hezbollah has represented itself as a resistance movement that struggles against Israeli occupation in Lebanon
Yet, after the Israeli withdrawal, this justification no longer works. This is why the different factions are now exercising pressure on Hezbollah to disarm. As for its own ideology regarding its current situation, Hezbollah believes that one day there will be another struggle against Israel. Hezbollah expects future attacks from the Israelis. Thus, Hezbollah has not given up the idea of being a part of revolutionary forces that still fight to eliminate the Zionist power in the region.
To justify its maintenance of military arms after the Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah invented the 'Shebaa Farms' issue as a pretext. Shebaa is an agricultural area consisting of 14 farms that was occupied by Israel in 1967. There is an ongoing debate in Lebanon as to whether Shebaa belongs to Lebanon or Syria.
Both Hezbollah and Amal claim that Shebaa is a part of Lebanon and that Israel has therefore not fully withdrawn from Lebanon. They believe that there had been an agreement with Syria to put its security forces in the territory. The main task of these forces was to prevent smuggling along the border between Lebanon and Syria. According to this interpretation, when the Golan Heights was occupied in 1967, Israel considered Shebaa a part of Syria, although it was and is Lebanese territory.
However, the United Nations considers Shebaa a part of Syria, and has therefore determined that Israel has withdrawn completely from Lebanon.
It is clear that this debate will never end. The opponents of Hezbollah think that Shebaa is a part of Syria and not Lebanese territory. In their view, as Lebanon is no longer occupied, there is no need for an armed militias, and they call on Hezbollah to disarm.
For Hezbollah disarmament depends on "the liberation of the Shebaa Farms, the release of Lebanese held in Israeli prisons, and the defense of Lebanon from Israeli threats."
However, Security Council resolution 1559 calls for the elimination of all militias and allows the Lebanese army to take control over all Lebanese territory. An agreement between the different Lebanese factions was reached after the last Lebanese elections to dismantle Hezbollah's arms. However, they have not been able to implement this since Hezbollah is now a part of the government and participates in governmental meetings and activities.
Lebanese factions realize that they cannot really force Hezbollah to disarm. Otherwise, they risk a new civil war in Lebanon. As a result, many non-Shiites in Lebanon, particularly the Druze and the Maronite Christians, are very concerned about their security and have began to rearm, which is a very serious business and a risky situation,
There is still broad agreement among all forces in Lebanon about Hezbollah. Most Maronites (who support Samir Geagea, commander of the dissolved Christian militia group Lebanese Forces), the Lebanese Forces, and the Qornet Shahwan center-right Christian coalition, advocate a realignment of Lebanon with the West. Maronites are anti-Syrians and pro-Western. On the other hand, Sunnis, as well as Saad Hariri, stand for limiting Syrian influence in Lebanon as well as eliminating Lebanon-Syria ties. All forces stand in a united national front against Hezbollah.
As for tackling the Druze situation, to understand the Lebanese political scene, we have to keep in mind the demography. The Druze is a very small ethnic group that lives essentially in Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. Unlike other groups, it does not have a foreign source to provide it with security or support. Thus, to a great extent, the Druze feel isolated. This can explain the strong position taken by Waleed Jumblatt against Hezbollah and his desire to establish strong relations with the United States.
No one can exclude the possibility of another civil war in Lebanon. That is why each group is now working to ensure its future status and powers, seeking support in the event of civil war. In Lebanon, it is always a "balance of power game" between the different groups. Even in peaceful times, we can see some factions who are trying to gain power over the situation. Lebanese politics are all about different groups who try to weaken each other.
Michel Aoun aims at taking over the leadership of the Lebanese government. He is such a well-known and respected figure among Lebanese, particularly Christians. He had considerable gains in the last elections.
Any significant numbers except within Hezbollah and the Shiites does, not support the current pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud. He is supported by neither the Christians nor the Lebanese Forces. That is how Michel Aoun got his chance. Aoun has good relations with Hezbollah. Recently, he held a meeting with Lebanon's Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. All forces accept him because of the strong position he used to take against Syria. He was the one who fought against the Syrians in 1990 and was forced to go into exile in France for 15 years.
Therefore, Aoun has his own credentials as anti-Syrian. He is viewed as a real Lebanese nationalist who is concerned about Lebanon's independence. At the same time, Hezbollah accepts him on condition that he allows them to maintain their own militia or replenish their arms. In addition, Aoun assures the Lebanese public that while allowing Hezbollah to keep arms, he will be a strong independent president, and not a Syrian puppet. This is the complicated game of factional politics takes place in Lebanon.
Q: What is Saad Hariri's policy? Is he pro-West or pro-Iran or on the Arab League side? What are his plans for the future?
A: As for Saad Hariri's true intentions, he plans to win full independence from Syrian control. In Lebanon, all Sunnis in general are looking forward to get out from under Syrian control, yet without turning against it. This is in contrast to the Maronites and Lebanese forces' attitude towards Syria. They are willing to turn against Syria at any moment. The Sunnis and Saad Hariri want only to limit Syrian influence and regain Lebanon's independence. Putting Lebanon in the mainstream of Arab politics is Saad Hariri's current vision for Lebanon. As for the current situation, everyone is divided over Hezbollah. Saad Hariri, Waleed Jumblatt and Samir Geagea are all getting together against Hezbollah. Once this issue is over or settled, the regional situation will start to change.
Q: What is the relationship between Syrian intelligence and Hezbollah? Which one is behind the terrorism that took place after the killing of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?
A: The relationship between Syrian intelligence and Hezbollah is very strong. Syria provides Hezbollah with military equipment. Regarding terrorism, Hezbollah is not involved. Syrian intelligence is behind it. Hezbollah is an ideological organization. Terrorism is not a part of its ideology. Hezbollah is trying to gain its own credibility as anti-Israel and anti-American party. It tries not to get involved in Lebanese politics. Since it was established, Hezbollah has not participated in any struggle with another faction, with a few minor exceptions. That is because it is directed mainly against Israel. Staying aside during Lebanon's civil war, Hezbollah was able to enhance its credibility as a resistance, and not a militia. With regard to Syria, it has a large network of secret intelligence agents in Lebanon after running the country for years. Thus, it uses this network to commit terror attacks. There is no sign that Hezbollah is involved in such attacks