LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
JANUARY 30/2006
Below News from the Daily
Star for 30.1.06
Jumblatt on Iran's grip on Lebanon, presidential
profits and Syrian infiltration
Egypt's Suleiman to begin mediating Syria-Lebanon row
Harb hails Hariri's visit to U.S.
Fatah chief insists group did not lose polls
Shiite ministers adamant on avoiding Cabinet despite
Berri's efforts
Cabinet meets to legislate last year's budget
Everyone loves Chidiac but not enough to support her
U.S. warns India against investing in Syrian oilfield
-AFP
What's the future for Lebanon's Central Bank?
Audi beats competition to gain foothold in Egypt
MEA boss hits back at minister's 'savage attack
Below News from
Miscellaneous sources for 30.1.06
Does Bush Doctrine lead to Islamism?By Pat Buchanan- pittsburghlive.com 30.1.06
The Beginning of Armageddon. .israpundit.com 30.1.06
US Deal in the
Works With Syria-IsraelNN.com 30.1.06
Discrimination against children of foreign fathers- IRIN 30.1.06
LEBANON: UN lawyer's visit "fruitful," says government-IRIN 30.1.06
Below News from Naharnet for
30.1.06
Lahoud Records Tape Accusing Mossad in Case He is Assassinated
Jumblat: Comparing Hizbullah Arms to Honor Closes Door on Dialogue
Hamadeh Says Government Will Not Respond to Hizbullah's Demand
U.S. Wants Lebanon Independent, Free of Syrian Intimidation, Bush Tells Hariri
Bombing Victim TV Anchorwoman Shoots for Seat in Parliament
U.N. Envoy Looking into International Tribunal for Hariri Case Ends Beirut Visit
Assad Urges Lahoud To Hold on to his Seat Despite Resignation Calls
U.S. Reportedly Seeks to Discourage Foreign Investment in Syria over Hariri
Murder
Jumblatt on Iran's grip on Lebanon, presidential
profits and Syrian infiltration
By Mayssam Zaaroura and Leila Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Monday, January 30, 2006
Interview
MUKHTARA: Lebanon is being held "hostage to deals that start in Lebanon and end
in Tehran at the expense of our ambitions for freedom," according to one of
Lebanon's leading politicians, Walid Jumblatt, head of the Progressive Socialist
Party (PSP). In an exclusive interview with The Daily Star at the Druze leader's
remote Mukhtara home, Jumblatt said: "There is a political alliance taking place
in the region, which is not for the benefit of Lebanon."
Iran: New regional power
According to Jumblatt, "Iran, today, with its population, its political strength
and financial capabilities is a strong player to be reckoned with and a key
player in East Asia, in the Arab world and in Lebanon.
"Today, after the invasion of Iraq, Iran - the Islamic republic or the Persian
Muslim- is more powerful. It has formed a political alliance rather than a
Shiite alliance. Political allies stretch from Iran to Syria to Lebanon - and
Lebanon is the weakest link in this alliance."
As to whether Syrian/Iranian aims for the region coincide with Israeli
ambitions, he said: "It's not that they meet, the times of Iran-Contra are long
over. Syria and Iran want to fight Israel only from Lebanon. Why?
"I say, great, you want to fight Israel, open the Golan front. That front has
been the most peaceful in the region since 1973. Why only in Lebanon?"
He went on to reply: "I'll tell you why Lebanon. It is a long history of events
that starts with the Americans' and Arabs' green light for the Syrians to enter
Lebanon under the pretext of stopping the war.
"In 1976 when in the Cairo and Riyadh agreements, this deal was made for Syria
to enter Lebanon 'to stop the civil war' it was actually a reason to confiscate
independent Palestinian decision-making and hit [late Palestinian Leader Yasser]
Arafat."
"It was also aimed at hitting the Lebanese Left and the Leftist ideology which
was portrayed then as if it were planning to invade the Arab world. By
assassinating [late PSP leader and Walid Jumblatt's father] Kamal Jumblatt, they
dealt a huge blow to the Leftist parties.
"I think the Syrians played on internal differences and when we became united,
[March 14], the Syrians again stoked them... and through Syria, of course, there
is Iran."
As to Hizbullah, "the resistance group's failure to condemn the Syrian regime
after everything that took place, and especially after [former premier] Rafik
Hariri was killed, is the major point of discord.
"It is our ambition to become a free country - after the [2001 Christian-Druze]
reconciliation of the mountain [led by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir],
after the south's liberation [May 2000], after Syrian soldiers officially left
our land [April 29, 2005].
"But in their compromises and deals, they want Lebanon to once again be the
location for struggle - over the Golan Heights, over Iran's nuclear plans, over
the Shebaa Farms."
1559 and Shebaa Farms: Lebanese or not Lebanese?
"There are two opinions regarding Resolution 1559. There is the opinion of Syria
and its allies, who claim that 1559 was pre-prepared, whereas we say that 1559
was the result of the Syrian decision - which was known - to extend President
Emile Lahoud's term of office."
He added: "At the same time, hypothetically let us say that the resolution was
pre-prepared, why didn't the Syrians use Rafik Hariri's skills and connections
to prevent this resolution from being passed?
"At the end of the day Rafik Hariri had excellent connections. But then all
relations between Syria and Rafik Hariri were cut.
"The decision to extend Lahoud's term was based on political and financial
considerations, because between the Syrian regime and Lahoud's regime there were
many financial profits - by the entourage of both Lahoud and Assad.
"And at the end of the day the best way for the Syrian regime to keep its grip
on Lebanon is through Lahoud, who facilitated the Syrians' entry into every
facet of Lebanese life: the army, the police, administrative positions - in
everything, even in some of the banks. There was no need to change him; Bashar
saw in Lahoud his best tool."
While dissecting Resolution
1559, Jumblatt stressed outright what many Lebanese politicians have been eager
to avoid saying - "1559 has not been implemented."
Dialogue on Hizbullah's arms
"Hizbullah's weapons...It has always been our motto that disarming Hizbullah
would not work without dialogue. But it's not dialogue just for the sake of
dialogue. We have dialogue with conditions. Liberating the land - OK, so
liberating the land is linked to the Shebaa Farms and whether they are
Lebanese."
Resolution 425, calling for the withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from
South Lebanon, "has been implemented. When the UN demarcated the Blue Line, it
was implemented. But Shebaa's property rights are Lebanese, so 425 has not been
implemented there if it is proven that it's under Lebanese sovereignty and until
the Syrian government admit it is Lebanese and officially announces that to the
United Nations.
"If we don't prove that, the conflict remains open, 1559 remains unimplemented
and Lebanon remains hostage in a regional equation."
He added: "Hizbullah's weapons are linked to liberation. Liberation is linked to
Shebaa; Shebaa is not allowed to be officially named as Lebanese. It's a vicious
circle."
Asked whether there is real and continuous dialogue regarding the weapons,
Jumblatt said: "On what basis? Respecting international decisions - and we
mentioned this in the ministerial statement and the Hizbullah ministers agreed
upon this - respecting international resolutions."
As far as internal conflict and the possibility of returning to war are
concerned, the Druze leader said: "There is no internal conflict. There is one
armed side - or rather, there is one armed Palestinian team, which we are
awaiting dialogue with, and an armed party, which is Hizbullah. But what can we
do when we have a paralyzed government?"
Palestinian weapons
"We said that outside the camps, there is no need for them but right up to now
the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command has weapons
outside the camps which are abundant and they are receiving more.
"Inside the camps, they are a danger to civilians and their presence inside the
camps will be subject to future dialogue with the new authority.
"There are trucks crossing the border from Syria, loaded with weapons and
guerrillas every night. They are sending us what is called the 'Palestinian
Liberation Army'.
"They have fortified the Naameh bases and the weapons in the camps are at the
ready. The amount of weapons and ammunition in Lebanon now is huge."
Asked why the security situation remains in chaos, Jumblatt said: "How can we
implement security when you doubt the loyalty of people in the government and in
the security apparatus? We haven't been able, until now, to arrest one single
person involved in the bombings.
"We can say that the army's security is better, but in the Surete Generale? How
can I tell the officers in the Surete Generale, who have been placed there by
[former head of the Surete Generale] Jamil Sayyed over years and years, to
protect the borders?
"[The current head of the Surete Generale Wafik] Jezzini was a compromise
between us and Hizbullah, hoping that his loyalty is for Lebanon."
Relations with Syria - past and present
Some politicians and observers criticize Jumblatt, saying his rejection of the
Syrian regime is a contradiction to his former years of alliance with it. So was
he forced to follow Damascus for all those years?
In the MP's view, "I was forced yes - even after they killed Kamal Jumblatt. I
was following Arabism and the way Lebanon was set up internally at the time, I
had to compromise. Unfortunately in politics, one has to compromise.
"But the former regime was The Godfather Part I. This one is The Godfather Part
II."
"The banner that the March 14 forces are walking under is achieving independence
and sovereignty. The March 8 banner is about gluing ourselves to Syria at the
expense of the country's future, its ambitions for freedom and under the pretext
of an open conflict with Israel.
"And this is never under discussion, it is forbidden. Because when you debate
the issue of why Lebanon? Or why only Lebanon? you are accused of being a
traitor of course."
Arab Initiative - Syria in sheep's clothing
As to the ongoing Arab "deals" being offered to the Lebanese, Jumblatt stressed:
"Part of the initiative is separating the investigations (into Hariri's
assassination) from Syrian/ Lebanese relations. How can one do that? It's
impossible.
"These are Syrian ideas, as Premier Fouad Siniora said. It was debated and they
tried to pass it off as a Saudi/ Egyptian deal, but it is Syrian.
"It basically asks Lebanon to return to the 'synchronization' of the security
apparatus and almost uniting the foreign ministries. They didn't even mention
the investigation, not to mention muzzling our free press."
"There are no miracles in politics. It is all a matter of timing. The Syrians
and the Iranians are playing on the time factor, so that [French President
Jacques] Chirac's term ends and they await the new U.S. presidential elections -
knowing that the matter of forming an international tribunal will take time."
Foreign Interference
So why shy away from the Arab deals in favor of those of the West and what some
claim is interference in Lebanon's affairs?
"The only interference we have from the other side is there for one reason and
one reason only - it is to counter or to try to rein in the Syrian hegemony of
Lebanon.
"We have the issue of the investigations, which is why we are accused by
Hizbullah and others of trying to internationalize the issue.
"The investigation issue is a very long one; if it is allowed to run its course
- for the international court to be formed and for the generals to be tried for
their role - it is a long road. For this reason we rely on French, U.S. and
British help, to bring the people in the Syrian regime to trial because the
international tribunal is beyond national sovereignty," referring to Syrian
President Bashar Assad's claim the international tribunal would violate Syria's
sovereignty.
And to what extent do you trust this help?
"It's not a matter of whether I trust the Americans. I don't have any other
means of pressure to reach an international court at the time being except with
U.S. policy and Jacques Chirac. As far as Russian policy is concerned, some
members support the international community, others humor the Syrian demands.
Russian/Syrian relations are very strong.
"And we actually always recall to mind the Taif Accord and what it stipulates:
"First we ask about Shebaa, let us prove it is Lebanese. The Syrians say no and
the latest thing they have come up with is that it is an Israeli demand.
"Implement Taif - send the army to the south. Let us have a cease-fire with
Israel. We don't want peace.
'Why not remain neutral? We have two big neighbors; annoying neighbors. One is
the enemy - Israel. The other used to be an ally. But now, after the murders in
Lebanon, I consider this regime an enemy. Not the people, the regime.
However, Lebanon's Speaker Nabih Berri, in an interview with NBN last week,
called for re-writing the Taif Accord because it does not deal with the new
situations.
"Well that's great," Jumblatt said sarcastically. "Re-writing Taif practically
means not sending the Lebanese army to the south, not enforcing the cease fire
agreement, not establishing Lebanese sovereignty over the Shebaa Farms - and
that is just the South.
"As for the rest, it means that any decision taken should be taken with
unanimous consent, which constitutes a blow to the meaning of democracy and
majority.
"Which means appointing any bellboy would need everyone's consent, a thing that
would lead the country to complete paralysis."
Baabda-Aley elections:
a test for Lebanon
"I hope that this seat, which became empty after the death of Edmond Naim, will
serve for the better good of Lebanon, and not be a seat for a certain party or
sect. Naim didn't belong to any party and at one point he was with my father in
the Progressive Socialist Party but he quit for his own reasons in the 1960s.
He defended Geagea rightfully when Geagea was in prison but he didn't belong to
a particular group. He was a free man and a great legal scholar. I hope that
this seat will be filled as the result of a compromise between the alliances of
the March 14 forces.
Hamas and the new equation
With Hamas' victory, new givens are present in the regional equation. To Walid
Jumblatt, "with Hamas' victory we have entered a new formula. Hamas has to deal
with the internal situation on the ground. But here, Lebanon has taken all it
can handle. It has to deal with the refugees' living conditions, UNRWA's help to
them, giving them certain rights and Hamas has to remember the value of
independent Palestinian decision-making and the right to determine their own
destiny."
What would you say to...?
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
"We have specified the points of difference, which includes defending the Syrian
regime.
"Nasrallah says: 'We support Syria - its people, regime and leadership.' That's
the first point. The second point is why try to include Lebanon in a larger
formula that is beyond Lebanon's power to handle. I say ok, Iran helped in the
liberation, and then what? That is enough. The third point of difference is the
issue of Shebaa Farms.
"After establishing the Lebanese identity of the Farms and sending the Lebanese
army to the south, Hizbullah's arms should be under the supervision of the
army."
President Emile Lahoud
"I consider his mandate unconstitutional. He was imposed on us by the Syrian
regime. He is an obstacle which is hindering everything from the security
appointments to the judicial appointments. He was not forced or threatened by
the Syrians to stay in power. He is the option card which Syria is holding
against the Lebanese.
Speaker Nabih Berri
"I tell him, and Nasrallah as well, at the end of the day they represent a large
section of the Lebanese. At the end of the day the Shiites are Lebanese too and
I do believe that there shouldn't be any bilateral agreements. Everyone has to
agree for the sake of Lebanon its sovereignty and independence and freedom.
Relations with the FPM?
Our relations with the FPM is good, acceptable. There is always a line of
contact. We acknowledge Aoun's efforts and help achieving independence.
Assassinations and attempts: who and why?
Rafik Hariri: "He was wholly Lebanese, a grand Arab leader, independent - a
grand Sunni leader, which maybe disturbed a Lebanese equation and maybe more
than Lebanese... he became bigger than he should and worried a regional party,
and I am not only talking about Syria."
Marwan Hamade: "It was a Syrian message to Hariri, me and the international
community. This attempt failed, and when it failed, they killed Hariri. Anyhow I
think that the order to kill Hariri was taken even before the decision to extend
Lahoud's term."
Samir Qassir: "It was a blow to An-Nahar. Qassir was one of the few calling for
free Palestinian decision-making, he was critical of the Syrian regime and
president and he was against all dictatorship regimes - including Syria."
George Hawi: "He refused the Syrian mandate and regime and it is said, a thing
I'm not sure of, that he gave information about Hariri's assassination. I think
Hawi was misled into a trap by the Syrians, because at the height of the Syrian
mandate and after Hariri's assassination, Hawi was trying to replace Emile
Lahoud with Nassib Lahoud, and he was meeting with Syrian officials who mislead
him and gave him false reassurances and then hit him."
Elias Murr:"He had the courage to stand in the face of Rustom Ghazaleh and
refused to play along with him regarding when they tried to trap him and tarnish
his role in the Majdel Anjar incident," (when Murr arrested alleged Al-Qaeda
members from the Majdel Anjar and Dinnieh towns for attempting to bomb foreign
embassies here).
May Chidiac: "A blow to LBC and the media again. I didn't know of her
affiliation with the Lebanese Forces and I have no idea of her relation with the
Americans."
Gebran Tueni: "A blow to An-Nahar and free media. Gebran was courageous and
bold. He demanded the end of all totalitarian regimes which includes the current
Syrian regime. And he was right. Gebran was already threatened and [UN probe
team former chief Detlev] Mehlis gave him the hit-list list. I think that
someone gave him assurances in Paris just like they (the Syrians) reassured
Hariri shortly before they assassinated him. That's how they operate. Reassure
and assassinate."
Shiite ministers adamant on avoiding Cabinet despite
Berri's efforts
Daily Star staff -Monday, January 30, 2006
BEIRUT: Despite Speaker Nabih Berri's attempts and promises to fix Lebanon's
Cabinet crisis, Amal and Hizbullah ministers will not attend Monday's
extraordinary parliamentary session called to discuss the budget. Despite talks
on Saturday with Speaker Nabih Berri, who had hoped for a swift return to
Cabinet activity by the Shiite ministers, by Sunday there appeared to be
immediate likelihood of that happening. The head of the Islamic Movement's
political bureau, Assad Harmoush, said on behalf of Berri after talks with the
Speaker: "Dialogue between the opposing sides will not start in Parliament
unless the Shiite ministers first return to sessions of Cabinet." Relations
between the majority in the Cabinet and the Shiite ministers worsened over the
weekend when Telecommunication Minister Marwan Hamade said that "MP Saad
Hariri's announcement from Washington that the issue of Hizbullah's arms will be
solved through internal dialogue must put an end to Shiite demands that the
government provide explicit recognition that Hizbullah is not a militia."
Hamade said Saturday that the government would not add a phrase to its policy
statement saying that Hizbullah was not a militia, as demanded by the Shiite
group. He called on the five Shiite ministers representing Hizbullah and Berri's
Amal Movement to end the Cabinet boycott they started on December 12. In
response to Hamade's statements, Labour Minister Tarrad Hamadeh said that "the
Lebanese people know very well why the five (Shiite) ministers have been
boycotting the Cabinet's sessions." Hamade said that those five ministers were
demanding that major decisions be reached through consensus rather than majority
voting in Cabinet and that the government clearly stated Hizbullah as a
resistance group not a militia.
The latter demand was raised by Hizbullah's Secretary General Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah recently to exclude the party's military wing from the clause in
United Nations Resolution 1559 that calls for the disarmament of both Lebanese
and non-Lebanese militias. "So far, none of those requests have been fulfilled,
leaving no space for dialogue," Hamade said.
The minister added that the Lebanese people were "pretty much aware of how
Hizbullah worked and whose orders it carried out and for whose interest."
Several MPs from Hizbullah and the Amal movement were upset by Hamade's
comments, which constituted a return of the verbal warfare between the opposing
Cabinet camps.
Hizbullah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan said on Sunday: "Hizbullah's loyalty to Lebanon
is firm." He added that "the actions of the resistance acts have never depended
on Syria" before claiming "the timing of Hizbullah's military actions always
surprised the Syrian government. "What is preventing dialogue from taking place
is the lack of trust among Lebanese." - The Daily Star
Cabinet meets to legislate last year's budget
National institutions are being financed on basis of 2004 figures
By Leila Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Monday, January 30, 2006
BEIRUT: With no prospects of the national budget for 2006 seeing the light of
day anytime soon, and the Cabinet missing its five Shiite ministers who continue
to abstain from attending sessions, Parliament convenes in an extraordinary
session Monday to legislate the 2005 national budget. So far, the country lacks
a national budget to regulate its finances for 2006 or 2005 and national
institutions and administrations have been relying on the 12-month formula
derived from the budget of 2004.
In Lebanon, when Parliament doesn't approve the budget until after the start of
the financial year, (normally in January), it exceptionally delegates the
government to carry out expenditures and the state's financial interests based
on a previous 12-month budget formula according to article 86 of the
Constitution.
Thus, the Cabinet takes the already-approved budget from the preceding year as a
starting point, adds any new credit that is needed, deletes from it any credit
that was left unused, and then expenditure and money-collection is carried out
each month until a time when the next new national budget is approved.
"2005 was a terrible year in the history of Lebanon which also witnessed the
change of three governments in a row," MP Neamtallah Abi Nasr told The Daily
Star Sunday, adding that the "current government is only seven months old, so
you can't blame it for not coming up with a draft budget."
In 2005, Lebanon's overall security was shaken because of attacks which targeted
the lives of several Lebanese officials and prominent media figures, including
former Premier Rafik Hariri. Despite the tragic events and the fall of three
Cabinets in less than a year, Abi Nasr, who is also a law scholar, said "2005
has already gone. It would have been better if Parliament had been summoned to
discuss the draft-law of the 2006 budget and not that of the past year."
Meanwhile, as March 14 MPs prepare to take advantage of Monday's session to
attack President Emile Lahoud alleging he is hindering security and judicial
appointments, sources close to Lahoud launched a counter-attack saying that "the
organized voices only aim is personal gain." The sources added that attacks on
Lahoud "all have a political background ... " and that these attacks are a
result of "Lahoud and Premier Fouad Siniora's getting along together a few days
ago."
Everyone loves Chidiac but not enough to support her
By Adnan El-Ghoul -Daily Star staff
Monday, January 30, 2006
BEIRUT: The Free Patriotic Movement said Saturday it has not yet discussed in
detail the option to reach consensus over one or two candidates for the
Baabda-Aley by-election. And the head of the Lebanese Forces executive
committee, Samir Geagea, repeated that his party needed more time to announce
its position. "The matter is not a race over one more or less parliament seat
but a political cause of national importance," he said.
The criteria for the choice used by Geagea and other March 14 figures is that
the seat must go "strictly to one of their own," or to a candidate who is part
of "the independence uprising and supports its goals." Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt
received the National Liberal Party president Dory Chamoun, who said that the LF
consider him one of three candidates along TV presenter May Chidiac and former
MP Salah Honein.
Honein told The Daily Star he would remain an observer until the other parties
make up their minds, without confirming or denying whether he would accept the
nomination or not.
Chamoun was the first to announce his candidature, saying his decision came
because his party's Higher Council urged him to run. So far, the LF has not
decided to give official support to May Chidiac, who insisted she was running as
an independent and said she was seeking support of all parties and factions,
especially those in the March 14 camp.
Chamoun was dismissive of the LBC anchor woman's decision."Chidiac's candidacy
was not well calculated," he said. "She is not from Baabda-Aley and should not
be dropped from the skies in a parachute."
Former MP Pierre Dakkash would probably be the FPM's choice for a compromise as
opposed to Chamoun, who had claimed his own candidacy could lead to consensus.
However, FPM leader Michel Aoun wondered: "Which side would Chamoun take
eventually if he were elected?"
Geagea expected all parties "to stick to the customs of Lebanese political
life," implying the seat should go to the LF because it was vacated by the death
of Edmond Naim who was a member of the LF's bloc.
Aoun sees the process differently. "We have to abide by the will of the voters
through the election process, which is at odds with inheritance or
endorsements," he said. "The votes belong to the voters, who choose to give them
to this or that candidate."
Based on Chidiac's status as a "living martyr" after a bomb attack left her
severely injured, many observers believe she has more chance of winning than of
any March 14 candidate.
Aoun is not one of them. "Despite our deep love and respect for Chidiac, we are
not uncomfortable in not supporting her," he said. "The criterion used to
justify her winning the election is not enough. There are other considerations."
Of allying with Hizbullah for the vote, Aoun said he would not call a possible
agreement with the Shiite groups as an alliance. "We have one candidate only,"
he said. "After all, the candidate will fill a Maronite seat."
Lahoud Records Tape Accusing Mossad in Case He is Assassinated
Naharnet 29.1.06: President Emile Lahoud believes the Israeli intelligence
agency Mossad is plotting to kill him following phone calls he received late
last year from a European country advising him to take precautions, Al Anwar
reported on Sunday.
Sources in the Presidential Palace in Baabda told the Lebanese daily that Lahoud
was told by a caller late in December that Syria was planning to assassinate him
after Christmas and before the end of the year 2005.
Similar warnings were made to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, Prime Minister
Fouad Saniora and Defense Minister Elias Murr. Investigations showed that all
the warnings were made by the same source that is based in a European capital
where Mossad agents are active, according to the Baabda sources. Lahoud was
alarmed by the warnings and recorded a tape to be released and broadcast on
television in case he is assassinated. In the tape, the president accused Mossad
of being behind the possible assassination attempt against his life.A series of
bombings targeting anti-Syrian politicians and journalists in Lebanon began in
October 2004 when Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh survived an attempt
on his life. An Nahar General Manager Gebran Tueni was the last victim of such
bombings when he was killed Dec. 12 in the eastern Beirut suburb of Mkalles. The
bombings are largely blamed on Syria, which denies the accusations.
Lahoud is a staunch ally of Damascus that exerted pressure on Lebanese
legislators in September 2004 to amend the constitution to enable the president
to extend his term for another three years. Beirut, Updated 29 Jan 06, 10:06
Lebanon Seeks U.N. Recognition That Shabaa Farms Are
Lebanese
Naharnet 29.1.06:Lebanon wants to submit a memorandum and documents to the
United Nations requesting the world body to recognize the Shabaa Farms as
Lebanese, An Nahar reported on Sunday. The government has been gathering all
relevant documents proving that the Shabaa Farms belong to Lebanon so that it
could send them along with the memorandum to the U.N. headquarters in New York,
sources told An Nahar. The government has asked France and Britain to help find
historical documents and maps to support Lebanon's claim to the farms, which are
still under Israeli occupation. Israel withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000 but
stayed in the farms saying they are part of the Syrian Golan Heights that the
Jewish state has been occupying since 1967. The reason why France and Britain
are selected to assist in the research is because the two states were granted
mandates by the League of Nations over Lebanon, Syria and Palestine following
the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
Lebanon and Syria say the farms are Lebanese, and therefore, support Hizbullah's
sporadic military attacks against Israeli troops stationed there. Israel and the
United Nations, however, say the area belongs to Syria and its fate is linked to
U.N. Resolution 242 that calls on Israel to pull out from the Golan Heights.
Beirut, Updated 29 Jan 06, 10:44
Jumblat: Comparing Hizbullah Arms to Honor Closes Door
on Dialogue
Naharnet 29.1.06:Druze leader Walid Jumblat has criticized Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah for equating the arms of the resistance to Hizbullah's honor, saying
such a statement has blocked the way for any kind of dialogue over the issue of
Hizbullah's disarmament. Jumblat said Saturday the resistance has carried out
its duty in liberating Lebanon from the Israeli occupation but that a solution
over its arms should be reached through dialogue. "When they compare the arms of
the resistance to their honor, it means that they do not want to accept debates
over this issue. And when there is no debate, then there is no dialogue," said
Jumblat. The Progressive Socialist Party leader was addressing lawyers who
belong to groups of the March 14 coalition visiting him in his hometown of
Mukhtara. His comments came some two weeks after Nasrallah accused the Druze
leader of breaching Hizbullah's honor when he referred to weapons in the hands
of armed groups as "tools of betrayal."Shortly after the Hizbullah leader's
statement, Jumblat said he was directing his comments at the pro-Syrian Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command. Jumblat told the
visiting lawyers that no party or sect can make unilateral decisions or
determine Lebanon's future. "That's why we need a unanimous agreement over the
issue of Hizbullah's arms."The Druze leader also said that the identity of the
Shabaa Farms, that are located on the western slopes of Mount Hermon between
Lebanon and Syria, must not remain vague. Lebanon and Syria say the farms are
Lebanese and support the sporadic attacks that Hizbullah conducts against
Israeli troops stationed there. But Israel and the United Nations say the farms
belong to Syria and their fate is linked to the Syrian Golan Heights that has
been occupied by Israel since 1967. Beirut, Updated 29 Jan 06, 11:51
Hamadeh Says Government Will Not Respond to Hizbullah's
Demand
Naharnet 29.1.06: Saad Hariri's announcement from Washington that the issue of
Hizbullah's arms will be solved through dialogue must put an end to Shiite
demands that the government provide explicit recognition that Hizbullah is not a
militia, Marwan Hamadeh has said. In an interview with Voice of Lebanon radio
station, the telecommunications minister said Saturday that the government would
not add to its policy statement a phrase saying Hizbullah was not a militia as
demanded by the Shiite group. He called on the five Shiite ministers
representing Hizbullah and Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Movement to end their
boycott of the cabinet that has been on since Dec. 12. The ministers are
demanding that major decisions be reached through consensus rather than majority
voting in cabinet and that the government clearly states Hizbullah is a
resistance group, not a militia. The latter demand was raised by Hizbullah
leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah recently to exclude the party's military wing
from U.N. Resolution 1559 that calls on Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias to
disarm. Hamadeh said the comments Hariri made following his meeting with U.S.
President Bush Friday gave enough assurances for the party that it would be
shielded from international pressure to disarm. Hariri said in Washington that
Hizbullah's arms would be solved through national dialogue. Beirut, Updated 29
Jan 06, 12:28
Fadlallah Slams West for Calling on Hamas to Renounce
Violence
Naharnet 29.1.06: Lebanon's senior-most Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Mohammed
Hussein Fadlallah has said he expects Hamas to negotiate indirectly with Israel
following the militant group's sweeping victory in the Palestinian parliamentary
elections. Fadlallah also criticized the United States and Europe for taking the
stand that Hamas could not form a Palestinian government unless it drops its aim
of destroying Israel and renounces violence. "We regard the rejection of the
election results by America and Europe as a rejection of democracy and the
Palestinian people's choice," said Fadlallah, who is the religious leader of
Lebanon's 1.2 million Shiites. Fadlallah praised Hamas' unexpected win Wednesday
as a vote for the group's armed struggle against Israel. "The Palestinian
elections produced a political surprise: the Hamas movement winning an absolute
majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council," Fadlallah told some 5,000
worshippers in a sermon after Friday prayers at a mosque in Haret Hreik south of
Beirut. "This indicates that the Palestinian people have elected the Islamic
resistance to a position of political responsibility." "Hamas will hold
negotiations indirectly with the enemy to achieve liberation," Fadlallah said.
He did not suggest how the indirect talks could be conducted, but he said Israel
could facilitate them by stopping its attacks on the Palestinians in the West
Bank and Gaza Strip. Negotiations cannot take place "while Israel is moving with
all its destructive powers against the Palestinian people" as is the case now,
Fadlallah said. Later in the day, hundreds of Lebanese and Palestinian Hamas
supporters drove through the streets of the southern port city of Sidon to
celebrate its election victory. They waved Hamas' green flags as well as
pictures of Hamas leaders, mainly founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who was killed by
Israel two years ago.
"Hamas' victory is a victory for all the Palestinian people, and this will for
sure strengthen the alternatives of resistance, liberating the land and the
return of refugees," said Abu Ahmed al-Fadl, a Hamas official in southern
Lebanon.
Hamas has been sending mixed messages about dealing with Israel in recent days,
saying negotiations are not on the agenda but that an extension of last year's
cease-fire is possible if Israel reciprocates. Fadlallah attributed Hamas' win
to its "proven sincerity in working to liberate the land and people by offering
martyrs at the level of leadership and base." He was referring to Hamas leaders
who have been killed by Israel, often in airstrikes on their cars.(AP) Beirut,
Updated 29 Jan 06, 11:54
Geagea Urges Aoun to Allow for Uncontested LF Victory in
By-Election
Naharnet 29.1.06: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea urged Gen. Michel Aoun,
his main contender in an expected upcoming parliamentary by-election, not to
field a candidate for the vote in order to allow an uncontested victory to the
LF.
Geagea, speaking to reporters at his mountain chalet in the Cedars, said he was
convinced there would be an election battle in the Baabda-Aley district to fill
the seat left vacant by the death of legislator Edmond Naim on Monday.
"We don't have a specific name (for a candidate) but we foresee a battle. It is
natural that we are keen on holding on to Doctor Naim's seat because it is an LF
seat," said Geagea. Naim, who died at age 88, was elected in the June
parliamentary vote as an LF representative for the Baabda-Aley district.
Immediately after his death, Aoun who heads the Free Patriotic Movement,
declared his desire to nominate a candidate to fill his seat. "I urge the other
parties, especially Gen. Aoun to leave this seat for the LF because this is the
first time we have the opportunity to enter serious and effective elections,"
said Geagea. The LF leader, who spent 11 years in jail, was released in July
when the newly elected Lebanese parliament passed a law to free him. He was
arrested in 1994 after being accused of masterminding a church bombing and later
sent to jail on two counts of murder, including the assassination of former
Prime Minister Rashid Karami and Christian leader Dany Chamoun. Beirut, Updated
28 Jan 06, 11:20
LEBANON: UN lawyer's visit "fruitful," says government
29 Jan 2006 14:19:53 GMT
BEIRUT, 29 January (IRIN) - A two-day visit to Lebanon by a UN legal counsel to
discuss a proposed international tribunal for suspects in last year's
assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was described as "fruitful"
by government officials.
UN Undersecretary-General for Legal Affairs Nicolas Michel arrived in the
capital, Beirut, on 26 January. While in Lebanon, he met with a host of
high-level officials, including President Emile Lahoud, Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora, Justice Minister Charles Rizk and Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh.
"It was a real opportunity, mainly for the justice minister, to present
different options regarding the nature of the tribunal," said a ministry source
who requested anonymity.
Michel's visit came within the rubric of UN Resolution 1644, adopted on 15
December 2005. That resolution was a response to Beirut's request for a
"tribunal of international character," the details of which were to be
determined after discussions with UN officials.
Some local analysts say Beirut's request for international help reflects the
inability of the state, riven by sectarian and ideological differences, to
provide a fair trial.
"The government is internally weak and cannot afford to handle a national
trial," said Beirut-based political analyst Dimitri Hanna. "The government
machinery – its institutions, judiciary and others – cannot respond to these
demands," he said.
"The government doesn't have the resources required and has to face security
issues that force it to seek international help," Hanna added.
The UN inquiry into the February 2005 Hariri murder has implicated high-ranking
Syrian officials and so far led to the arrest of 12 Syrian and Lebanese
citizens.
Suspects include four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals formerly in charge of state
security. Syria, meanwhile, has denied any involvement in the killing.
The Syrian military and intelligence apparatus withdrew from Lebanon in April
2005, largely as a result of international pressure, after a presence of almost
30 years. Nevertheless, many politicians still fear Syrian influence within the
judiciary.
"Over the past year, several magistrates have been physically attacked and fear
for their lives," alleged lawyer and MP Boutros Harb.According to the justice ministry source, Rizk proposed a number of options,
including a trial in Lebanon headed by foreign magistrates or a tribunal abroad
presided over by Lebanese magistrates.
A final formula, however, has yet to be worked out.
In a press release, Michel stated that, while the UN had a degree of experience
establishing international courts, there was no "model" to be emulated in this
particular case.
"My mission is to assist the Lebanese government in defining the nature and the
reach of the international assistance requested with the objective of bringing
those involved to trial," he was quoted as saying.
After meeting with Siniora on 27 January, Michel said he would inform UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan of the results of his consultations.
"We will continue to think in all directions," he said.
Michel's visit is the first of several planned working trips to the Lebanese
capital. Lebanese officials said they expect him to return as early as next
month.
The Beginning of Armageddon?
(Revelations 16:14-16)
by Jerry Gordon, former U.S. military intelligence officer and Middle East
Analyst for American Congress for Truth.
Israel, the US and the West have lost in the Middle East because of a
delusion-the Bush version of the Wilsonian dream of national sovereignty and
"democracy" has no traction in the cradle of political Jihad Islam. Wilson's
League of Nation dream didn't prevent the rise of Herr Hitler and his Nazi thugs
who gave us the Shoah and six million dead European Jews whose memories we
commemorated on Friday at the UN and in dozens of civilized countries around the
globe.
In a strange way Princeton Emeritus Professor and Vice President Dick Cheney's
favorite middle east policy wonk, Bernard Lewis and the neo-cons have lost. But
my friends Bat Ye'or, Bob Spencer and Andrew Bostom have won a Pyrrhic victory.
Bush and Condi miscalculated and so did Sharon and Olmert.
Bringing liberty and democracy to Islamic lands was a fool's errand from the get
go.What we got was the rise of xenophobic Islamic jihadism fueled by barbarous
tribal and clan warfare.
Let's look at the track record last year and this new year.
The US encouraged Iranian dissidents and moderates to protest by not voting last
June and look what we have- a "terpich fresser" in Tehran lunatic apocalyptic
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad brandishing his nuclear scimitar at Israel and the
West and telling Bush and the EU to stuff it. Meanwhile Russia, China and even
India are bought off by billion dollar trade and arms deals with Iran ensuring
no UN security actions. Nary a glove is laid on Iran's patent "judenhass" on
this the UN's first Holocaust memorial day, Friday.
Also in June in Lebanon after four rounds of voting in the first, Hezbolleh and
allied parties win 35 seats out of 128 in the Lebanese parliament. Hezbolleh
literally announces takeover of all of South Lebanon and threatens the new
government with secession. Iran pours in over $600 million in "assistance" to
Hezbollah annually and Hezbolleh earns another $600 million from telephone card
monoplies and drug dealing producing a billon dollar plus war chest. Hezbolleh
has tens of thousands of rockets, artillery, munitions, arms and vehicles in
those underground bunker in the Bekaa Valley. Hezbolleh begins actions against
Northern Israel. Hezbollah now mans all of the guard posts-some directly
overlooking Israel's northern road along the border with Lebanon. Opposition
leaders in Lebanon are continually assassinated presumably by Syrian backed
operatives.
August, Sharon and Olmert engineer the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza creating
a mini-Hamastan and seeds of civil war between Fatah and Hamas. 9,000 Jews are
displaced to live in caravan and hotel squalor inside the green line and upwards
of 5,000 Arab jobs are destroyed along with $75 to $100 million from vegetable
and herb export earnings from high tech greenhouses, since destroyed. Security
for Israel is lost despite the move.
Tons of arms and weapons and millions of money pour into Gaza from al Qaeda and
Iran-backed Islamic Jihad pour into Gaza
Then comes September and aging Egyptian dictator ruler Mubarak now has 79
members of the Muslim Brotherhood sitting in his phony parliament and waging war
against Coptic Christians. Copts account for 12 to 15 million out of Egypt's 80
million in population and they have five seats and all the women have another
five. Sharia dhimmitude basically takes over. The Mubarak dynasty will never
retain control in this decade.
In mid-November, Dr. Rice and entourage fly in on the weekend of November 12th
to jam it to the Israelis to enter an unsigned agreement to open up the Rafah
gap border with Egypt and mayhem occurs as Hamas and al Qaeda pour in
operatives, arms and munitions and the rain of Qassem rockets begins to fall on
Northern Sinai and Ashkelon in Israel.
December 15th, elections occur in Iraq and the pre-dominate party elected is a
Shia Islamist group, now in fractious negotiations with minority Sunnis which
may blow up in the faces of the desperate US Ambassador, Afghhan born Zalmay
Khalilzad, Dr. Rice and President Bush. The Kurds are simply angling for
justifiable regional autonomy. Meanwhile neighboring Iran trains and funds
insurgents in the country to foment turmoil.
January 25th, Hamas-an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood wins an
overwhelming majority of the Palestinian Legislative Council and violence erupts
with disenfranchised Fatah gunmen in Gaza and the West Bank. Exiled Hamas leader
Khaled Meshaal, in Damascus says the armed struggle against Israel will not
cease.
All this in a Damascus, where we now learn from Saddam's former Air Force head
where they took most of the WMD makings. A Damascus where diminutive Iran
President Ahmadinejad and towering Syrian President Assad held a photo op and
war council prior to the Palestinian Legislative Council vote. Doubtless they
met secretly to cement terror funding with both Hamas and Hezbolleh leaders for
actions against Israel following the "surprise" Hamas win of last Wednesday.
What's the score so far in this "great game" in baseball argot: Jihad 7 Israel
and the West zip!!
As I said a few days ago in another IsraPundit posting. The green flag of Jihad
Islam advances everywhere in the Middle East. The foolish western chimera of
liberty and democracy for Muslim lands in the Middle East is a failed delusion.
Olmert and the Kadimah leadership, Rice and Bush are like the Vichy French
police chief portrayed by the late British film actor Claude Rains who spoke
that fabled line in the Bogie movie, "Casablanca": "I'm shocked, shocked."
Looks like the beginning of Armageddon to me.
Posted by Jerry Gordon at January 29, 2006 07:48 AM
Report: US Deal in the Works With Syria
13:12 Jan 29, '06 / 29 Tevet 5766
(IsraelNN.com) The American government is negotiating a deal with Syrian leader
Bashar al-Assad that would permit Assad to remain in power, in return for Syrian
compliance with American interests in Iraq.
According to the exclusive ynet report quoting a “senior source in Damascus,”
Saudi intermediaries are working to broker the deal, which would limit Syrian
ties with Iraq, and would involve Damascus agreeing to tighten border controls
to cut off the arm supplies to anti-American elements in Iraq. In return,
America would back off, ending its pressure to oust al-Assad and/or seek
international sanctions against Damascus.
Assad also agrees to hand over senior officials suspected of involvement in the
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and America would
no longer seek the arrest of Assad and his brother-in-law, both implicated in
the murder.
According to the report, the Syrian ruler has fallen short of all-out
cooperation, and remains unwilling to comply with US requests to disarm
Hizbullah in an effort to bring an end to attacks along Israel’s northern
border, and to Hizbullah involvement in terrorism inside Israel.
LEBANON: Discrimination against children of foreign
fathers
BEIRUT, 29 January (IRIN) - About 10 years ago, Nadira and Amer Nahhas left the
United Stated to settle in Lebanon, not realising that their children would live
as foreigners in Nadira's homeland.
"I am Lebanese, but my husband is a foreigner, this is why my children are
foreigners," said Nadira.
According to Article 1 of the Lebanese Domestic Law, only "the child born of a
Lebanese father" is deemed Lebanese.
While Lebanon acceded to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of
Discrimination against Women in 1997, it placed a reservation on the article
that stipulates that "states parties shall grant women equal rights with respect
to the nationality of their children".
The reservation exempts the government from having to implement the Article.
Since 2004, an administrative measure taken by the General Security body in the
interior ministry, permits children born of Lebanese mothers and foreign fathers
to obtain renewable residence permits every three years free of charge.
Before this, such parents had to pay US $200 for a renewable, one-year residency
permit for their children.
"In case they [children of foreign fathers] want to work, they have to apply for
another kind of residence permit and a work permit, both costly depending on the
job classification," said Rola Masri, project manager of the Gender Citizenship
and Nationality Programme at the Collective for Research and Training on
Development (CRTD).
"But the General Security decree says that Lebanese have the priority for jobs,"
she added. "So, besides the financial obstacle, it is often really hard for
foreigners to be provided with such permits and actually work in Lebanon."
Children born of foreign mothers and Lebanese fathers, meanwhile, enjoy the
right to Lebanese nationality.
Born to an Iraqi father and Lebanese mother, 25-year-old Rayan (not her real
name) works as an accountant in a local company. "As I only have a three-year
residence permit on the basis of being born to a Lebanese mother [and foreign
father], I am working illegally," she said.
To work legally, Rayan would have to pay more than US $2,500 per year to obtain
the necessary papers. "Considering the low salaries in Lebanon, I can't afford
to pay such an amount," she said.
Children of foreign men are not entitled to public health care, social welfare
and are treated unequally in terms of education.
"Children of foreign fathers are allowed entry to public schools, but it's often
made difficult as Lebanese pupils have priority," said Masri from CRTD. "They
often face refusal."
"Children of poor families end up being illiterate and excluded from society,"
she added.
While Lebanese pay the equivalent of US $100 annually to register in the public
Lebanese University, Rayan had to pay more than US $600.
"And I could not take part in the university's political life," she said. "As a
foreigner, I have no right to vote and no right to register in a political party
or to be a candidate."
Similarly, three-year renewable residence permits are available to foreign women
married to Lebanese men, but not to foreign men married to Lebanese women,
according to Iqbal Doghan from the Lebanese Working Women's League.
Foreign men can request a one-year residence permit, which costs approximately
US $700, provided they do not work.
"If ever they decide to work legally and get a work permit, General Security
asks them to open a bank account with a huge amount of money – depending on
their job classification – as a guarantee," Doghan explained.
"As an engineer, my husband was asked to open a bank account with US $200,000,"
said Nadira. "He's now working in Saudi Arabia."
While no official statistics are available, CRTD Director Lina Abou Habib said
the organisation was aware of some 1,100 Lebanese women married to foreign men.
Not eligible for any benefits, many such couples never bother to register, while
others fear that the government might find out that husbands are working
illegally.
"Many end up leaving the country," said Abou Habib, adding that racism also
sometimes comes into play.
"While westerners will be easily given residence permits, it's much harder for
other Arabs and men from third-world countries in Lebanon," she said.
In November 2005, a national campaign called "My nationality, a right for me and
my family" was launched on the initiative of several local civil society
organisations.
The campaign is appealing to the government and parliament to assert the full
citizenship rights of Lebanese women, calling for the "amendment of the articles
deemed discriminatory against women".
However, the issue remains highly controversial.
"Politicians fear that if women are allowed to pass their nationality onto their
husbands, many Palestinians will take advantage of this and start marrying
Lebanese women en masse," said Ahmad Halimi of the Popular Aid for Relief and
Development NGO that works with Palestinians in Lebanon.
Some 350,000 Palestinians refugees are registered in Lebanon with the UN Relief
Works Agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), while local NGOs estimate there
could be a further 100,000 who are not registered.
"The two pretexts given are that allowing Lebanese women to give their
nationality to their husband and children could have an impact on the sectarian
balance, but also that it would help Palestinian refugees gain Lebanese
nationality," explained Abou Habib.
Does Bush Doctrine lead to Islamism?
By Pat Buchanan
Saturday, January 28, 2006
The neoconservatives who dreamed up the Bush Doctrine -- promoting "democracy"
would be the U.S. mission in the Middle East -- may be about to hold yet another
"Seconds Thoughts" conference.
Certainly, Israel must be having second thoughts on the folly of having yielded
to U.S. pressure and allowed Hamas to participate in elections. For Hamas, which
is dedicated to the destruction of Israel and employs suicide-bomb attacks on
civilians, has just won a sweeping political and moral victory in Palestine.
Freedom and democracy are on the march, says President Bush. Perhaps. But there
is no doubt Islamism is on the march.
Not only is Hamas now the voice of Palestinian nationalism, Hezbollah used
elections to establish itself as the political power in south Lebanon. In Egypt,
the Muslim Brotherhood swept over half the parliamentary seats it was allowed to
contest and appears the probable beneficiary to the political estate of
President Mubarak.
In the Iraqi elections, Shia militants wiped up the floor with secularists like
ex-Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and Ahmed Chalabi. In Iran, the dark horse who
stormed to victory in the 2005 elections is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose
commentaries on the Holocaust and wiping Israel "off the map" have even the
Ayatollah nervous. In the two provinces of Pakistan that border Afghanistan,
pro-Taliban fundamentalists swept the boards in recent elections.
That Zogby poll of 3,900 people in six Arab nations which revealed rampant
distrust of U.S. motives and widespread detestation of Bush and Sharon appears
to have been on the mark.
But what do we do now?
For Israel, it is an uncomplicated question. Both the "peace process" and the
"roadmap," agreed to by the European Union, United Nations, Russia and the
United States, have long been, as Sharon aide Dov Weinglass put it, in
"formaldehyde."
Israel will not negotiate with a government that includes Hamas and will proceed
on the course set by Sharon after Bush gave him a green light in April 2004.
Having pulled out of Gaza, Israel will wall in all Jewish settlements
surrounding Jerusalem and the city itself, deny Palestinians any right of
return, annex the choicest cuts of the West Bank and leave the shank to the
Palestinians.
No one -- not the Palestinians, not the Arab world, not the EU -- will accept
this Bantustan solution, except the Americans. But that is all that counts with
Israelis -- be it Labor, Likud or Kadima.
What will Bush do? Nothing. Any attempt to force Israel to negotiate on
settlements or East Jerusalem would put the White House in a withering
crossfire. The Christian right and neocons would accuse him of a "Munich," while
Democrats and the Israeli lobby savage him for forcing Israel to "negotiate with
terrorists."
Down deep, Bush probably agrees with them.
But if Israel's course seems clear -- proceed to a separation of the two
peoples, wall herself in and rely on U.S. moral, military and materiel support
indefinitely -- what should U.S. policy be?
Having touted elections as America's roadmap to peace, Bush cannot credibly say
we will only accept elected leaders who share our views and values. But he
should demand, as we did after the Oslo Accords, that every party to any
negotiation renounce terror.
As for negotiating with terrorists like Hamas, is this not just what Bush did
when he agreed to lift sanctions on Khadafi, who had been behind the air
massacre of Pan Am 103? In return, Bush got a commitment from Khadafi to
compensate the victims' families, surrender his weapons of mass destruction and
forego any right to build such weapons.
During the presidential campaign, Bush's men touted the Libya agreement as a
diplomatic triumph that proved the mailed fist in Iraq had induced moderation in
the Arab world.
As the situation is evolving in the Middle East, Bush is going to have to modify
or abandon his democracy crusade, or eat some crow and start talking to the
Islamists who get elected. As for Israel, she may believe isolationism and
reliance on America is a winning strategy. Demography says otherwise.
Here are the latest UN population projections for mid-century for Israel's
neighbors, friend and foe.
Nation ---- Population in 2050
Lebanon ---- 5 million
West Bank, Gaza ---- 10 million
Jordan ---- 10 million
Syria ---- 36 million
Saudi Arabia ---- 49 million
Iraq ---- 64 million
Iran ---- 102 million
Egypt ---- 126 million
Of Jordan's 10 million, 6 million will be Palestinians. Of Israel's estimated
population of 10 million, 2.5 million to 3 million will be Arabs.
What recent elections tell us is that Arab peoples believe they have been
misruled by corrupt leaders, with U.S. support, and the Palestinians have been
brutalized, with U.S. support, and their only hope lies in Islamic militants who
understand this.
Whether Israel talks to these folks, or slams the door in their faces, is her
call. But if we do not wish to be as isolated, we have to talk to them. For, in
the Middle East, time does not appear to be on our side.