LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
JANUARY 24/2006

News from miscellaneous sources for 24/1/06
Ayoon Wa Azan (Hezbollah and the Lebanese Structure).By: Jihad el Khazen Al-Hayat - 24/01/06
Blair rejects action against Iran and Syria-telegraph.co.uk 24.1.06
LEBANON: Year in Review 2005 - Developments in democracy-IRIN 24.1.06
Lebanese versus Lebanon: Something new, something old, something tricky. By: Manuela Paraipan 24.1.06
Interview with Ziad Abs of the Political Bureau of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement.By: Manuela Paraipan - Global Politician 25.1.06

News from the Daily Star for 24/1/06
MP Edmond dies after long struggle with illness
 Politicians slam Aoun bid to fill Naim seat so soon
 Former MP backs resistance
 Tributes flow in to the Grand Old Man of Parliament
 Aoun urges end to 'paralysis' of government
 Tueni's widow demands answers on probe standstill You
 Democratic Gathering blasts Assad
 Parliamentary dialogue best hope to end crisis
 Mehlis hands over his leak-proof inquiry to Brammertz
 Qabbani and Qabalan meet in attempt to resolve internal crisis
 Fattoush lashes back at accusations against him
 Families of missing Lebanese demand action
DNA analysis of Anjar remains begins
Syria's stance on the Shebaa Farms reflects its disregard for Lebanon
Sabah family backs ailing emir's removal

Families of missing Lebanese demand action
'None of our demands have been met and nothing new is being done'
By IRIN News.org -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: Ten months after the start of a sit-in protest in front of UN headquarters in Beirut, the families of Lebanese nationals who have disappeared or been detained in Syria say their campaign for information is making little progress.
"None of our demands have been met and nothing new is being done on the issue," said Samia Abdullah, whose brother, a member of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement in Lebanon, was arrested by Syrian agents in 1984.Families of the missing are demanding that the UN Security Council consider the implementation of last year's Resolution 1559 - calling Syrian troops and intelligence to withdraw from Lebanon - incomplete, as long as the issue of the country's disappeared remains unresolved.
Syrian troops entered Lebanon in 1976, a year after the Lebanese Civil War began, and maintained de facto control of the country for almost 30 years, until their pullout in April 2005. "The number of cases of detention and disappearances reached 643 in November and new cases are under study," said Ghazi Aad, head of Support of Lebanese in Detention and Exile, a local NGO. "We are now looking at 700 cases."
"The problem is that, unless our demands are official, i.e. made by the government, nothing will happen," he added.
Protestors are also calling on the Security Council to establish an international commission of inquiry into their cases.
Since last April, hundreds of friends and relatives of missing persons have taken turns at the sit-in in front of UN offices, surrounded by hundreds of placards of men and women who have disappeared over the last 30 years.
Syria has consistently denied accusations of arbitrary arrests and kidnappings. In June 2004, the Syrian and Lebanese governments established a joint commission mandated with looking into the issue of disappeared nationals from both countries. "We're doing our best to reach tangible results," said commission member Judge Georges Rizk. "Several meetings took place at the border with the exchange of documents, lists and names." But Rizk said the exchange of information remains problematic. "The issue is really touchy, considering the current tensions between Lebanon and Syria, and this is hampering our work." A commission meeting is expected next Saturday. - IRIN

Aoun urges end to 'paralysis' of government
Daily Star staff-Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: The only hope to end the "paralysis" seizing Lebanon's Parliament, according to MP Michel Aoun, is better communication. "We are adamant about our position and believe in dialogue as the only way to reach a solution," said the head of the parliamentary Reform and Change Bloc on LBC Monday. "I am not a mere spectator but am involved in everything that is under discussion." Aoun emphasized he is close to all the parties and is building bridges because nothing can be solved without exchanging ideas between all concerned groups.
"This is why we communicate with all during their parties, invitations, and seminars; we listen to their opinion whether we agree or disagree with them because we believe in the right to hold different expressions and opinions," he added. Aoun, who also heads the Free Patriotic Movement, described the government today as "paralyzed."
Aoun said the Shiite-Sunni-Christian triangle is "closed and frozen," and one of these groups must step aside in the row over the president and his possible departure. "He who calls for the president's resignation is taking advantage of the situation," said Aoun. Asked whether the issue could be debated during the upcoming "extraordinary session,"Aoun said discussions are only intended to examine the budget, but hoped the session might be open to settle other issues as well.
Later, Aoun met with the French Ambassador Bernard Emie, who refrained from making a statement after the visit.
Also Monday, the Reform and Change Bloc held its weekly meeting headed by Aoun. After observing a minute of silence for the recently deceased MP Edmond Naim, participants denounced the reluctance of some parties to take a clear stand concerning the launch of an urgent national dialogue. They said disagreement over the place and participants drove some forces away from the country's higher interest. The bloc indicated that many forces oppose foreign interference in Lebanese affairs, but are bringing regional and international forces into the country because of their disputes - this at a time when they should stop demonstrations and counterdemonstrations and discuss their differences in a national dialogue.
In this context, the bloc cautioned against division which could threaten Lebanon's unity, sovereignty and independence. Pondering government policy, the bloc said "the method of favoritism and sectarianism, in place of competence, continues in the absence of any role of supervisory bodies." The bloc stressed the need to designate five members to the Higher Judicial Council as soon as possible to relieve the judicial crisis and regulate the body's work. - The Daily Star

Tueni's widow demands answers on probe standstill
By Jessy Chahine -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: More than 200 university students marked on Monday the passing of 40 days since the death of Gebran Tueni, in a demonstration organized by March 14 Forces in Downtown Beirut facing the An-Nahar building. Addressing a cheering crowd under heavy weather conditions, Gebran Tueni's widow said: "Forty days after Gebran's death, Lebanon is not scared, you are not scared and I am not scared. For those who killed Gebran wanted us to be scared and forget our dreams. They wanted us to go back to the past and give up." Alluding to the absence of the Free Patriotic Movement in the demonstration, Siham Tueni said how "others should've been present with us today, for Gebran's sake. But they're not. Lovely loyalty!"
Siham wondered why, even 40 days after Gebran's death, an investigating magistrate had still not been appointed to look into his murder. "I wish to know why. Why this neglect and why so late? Why neglect a martyr who died for his country? What have they been doing for the past 40 days? Hiding evidence from the crime scene and misleading the investigation?" asked an angry but calm Siham.
"Today, 40 days since the death of my husband, I openly wonder why Lebanon has drifted in a black tunnel after extending the presidential term (in 2004)." Siham finally asked the youth "not to give up on Gebran's dream and hold on to
it with all your strength." "And I say to those criminals out there, you will never kill this people's free will, and an international investigation and court await you," Siham said.
While the crowds cheered anti-Syrian slogans and waved Lebanese flags, Chouf MP George Adwan then addressed the youth. "Hold on to Gebran's dream and don't go for half solutions or compromises," said Adwan.
"If we wish this country to be completely free from any kind of tutelage we should all be standing hand in hand and never allow any kind of division to take place among us." Adwan said that "having steady relationships with the Syrian government could only be achieved through "diplomatic representations and border demarcation." He said that the "Shebaa Farms' identity needs to be clarified as soon as possible so we can know what kind of resistance should take place in this area."
The cheering of the crowd reached its peak when the voice of May Chidiac's suddenly greeted them through an aired recording. "The battle of March 14 has not yet ended," she said."When you returned to your Freedom Camp in Downtown Beirut, you demonstrated your ability to stand against all odds and win your battle to the end."

MP Edmond dies after long struggle with illness
Daily Star staff-Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: One of Lebanon's most prominent legal experts, MP Edmond Naim, died
Monday morning at the age of 88 after a long struggle with illness. Naim was the oldest member of Parliament to which he was elected last summer as a Lebanese Forces candidate.A lawyer by profession, Naim wrote several books in Arabic and was considered an authority on constitutional law. He served as head of Lebanon's Bar Association, and president of the state-run Lebanese university and governor of Central Bank. Following his death, LF parliamentary bloc and LF executive-committee leader Samir Geagea met at Naim's house.In a statement released after his death, the LF bloc said: "Naim died after spending his life defending Lebanon and Lebanese principles and institutions." They added: "His presence in Parliament added value to the legislative institution and he set a perfect example of how to implement laws and respect parliamentary rules."
Naim was one of Geagea's lawyers when he went on trial in the mid-1990s on multiple counts of murder.
In a separate eulogy, Geagea urged the Lebanese to remain faithful to Naim and his beliefs. Naim is to be buried Wednesday in the family cemetery in Deir al-Qamar in the central mountains. He is survived by his German wife. LF called upon all the Lebanese to participate in his funeral. - The Daily Star

Politicians slam Aoun bid to fill Naim seat so soon
By Nada Bakri -Special to The Daily Star-Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: The death of Baabda Aley MP Edmond Naim sparked a wave of speculation as to who could be a potential candidate to take over his parliamentary seat, especially with Kesrouan MP Michel Aoun's swift announcement that members of his party would run the campaign in alliance with Hizbullah. But in the face of Aoun's declaration, the rest of the political parties refused to suggest an heir to the empty parliamentary seat, saying: "It is shameful to speak about potential candidates when the man has just died and has yet to be buried."
Naim, 88, ran a 2005 parliamentary campaign that witnessed controversial and unprecedented alliances, as a Lebanese Forces candidate. Not an official LF member himself, Naim was one of the key attorneys defending LF executive committee leader Samir Geagea during his 11-year imprisonment. In a eulogy he wrote himself, Geagea said: "How can I forget the man who accompanied me from the very first moment of my arrest and did not abandon me until I was released."
An LF spokesperson said "it is shameful to speak about a candidate. The LF is now busy paying tribute to this great man."
In an interview with LBCI channel shortly after Naim's death was announced, Aoun, head of the FPM, said: "We will run the electoral campaign in alliance with Hizbullah."Aoun added: "There are many candidates and in the past the alliance [with Hizbullah] was impossible. Today the situation has changed."
During the 2005 elections, Hizbullah and the Amal party allied with the March 14 Forces - that included the Democratic gathering headed by MP Walid Jumblatt, the LF, and the Future Movement headed by Saad Hariri - in the Baabda-Aley polls.
Relations between Jumblatt and former ally Hizbullah deteriorated in December following a Cabinet decision, reached through vote rather than consensus, to ask for an international court to try the killers of former Premier Rafik Hariri.
Jumblatt and the Hizbullah leadership engaged in media attacks and counterattacks, accusing each other of a lack of national allegiance. Speaking to The Daily Star, Jumblatt said: "We lost a man with a great history. His death is a big loss for Lebanon."
But the Druze leader refused to name a candidate: "Let's offer our condolences first."March 14 MP Butros Harb also refused to suggest a candidate. He told The Daily Star "it is shameful to talk about that before burying the man. We will run the elections and lead a political campaign when the time is appropriate," he added.
Political analysts and elections experts expected Baabda-Aley elections to be very tense in light of the current alliances, adding that the Hizbullah-FPM coalition is more likely to win. Head of the Beirut Center for Research and Information Abdo Saad told The Daily Star that the chances of March 14 political forces winning were very slim. "If they properly interpret the situation they will not run."During the June elections the Hizbullah-Amal coalition along with the March 14 Forces won with a difference of 3,000 votes thanks to the participation of the 14,000 Shiite votes."If these 14,000 remained neutral during the past elections, Aoun's list would have been the winner," said Saad. The March 14 Forces' strongest candidate, according to Saad, is Geagea. "He is the only one who can attract Christian votes but his chances to win are still very slim. His victory will only bring a parliamentary seat while his defeat could mark the end of a political leader."
Sources close to Aoun said if Geagea runs, Aoun will compete against him, resigning from his Kesrouan seat in favor of FPM member Gebran Bassil.Among the FPM-Hizbullah candidates are Hikmat Deeb, former MP Pierre Dakkash, Naji Gharios and Shakib Qortbawi, informed sources said. The coming elections will reveal whether the March 14 Forces represent the Christians' votes and are a majority. If they decide not to run, this could be interpreted as an indirect acknowledgment of their inability to confront the FPM - and its Shiite ally, Hizbullah.

Former MP backs resistance
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: Former MP Zuheir Obeidi said he was "surprised" by the phone call between MP Walid Jumblatt and the General Observer of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria Ali Sadreddine al-Bianouni, calling it "interference in the Lebanese crisis." On Sunday, Jumblatt received a telephone phone call from Bianouni, who stressed his support for the Druze leader's positions on Hizbullah's weapons. Jumblatt had wished the Syrian people "a better future of freedom and democracy."
Obeidi asked the general observer to clarify his position.
Bianouni said: "The members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Lebanon emphasize their support for the resistance, as the guarantee for Lebanon's unity, Arabism, security and stability." He added: "Disarming Hizbullah and the Palestinian resistance is part of the American-Zionist conspiracy to achieve the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559."
When contacted by The Daily Star, Jumblatt said he did not wish to add anything to the comments he made on Sunday.
In a separate development, Jumblatt received a telegram from the Lebanese Druze diaspora community in the Canadian city of Edmonton. The letter praised Jumblatt's "national positions, in which he defended Lebanon's dignity and independence." - The Daily Star

Democratic Gathering blasts Assad
Daily Star staff-Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: The Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc lashed out at the Syrian regime on Monday, accusing President Bashar Assad of attempting to deny responsibility for former Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination, as well as for other crimes committed in Lebanon since the mid-1970s. Following a meeting at MP Walid Jumblatt's Mukhtara residence, the bloc released a statement saying it was surprised by the convening of an Arab Bar Association conference in a country where "emergency laws and imprisonment of intellectuals" prevails. The bloc praised the Beirut and North Lebanon Bar Associations for not taking part in the conference. The statement said Assad's "continuous refusal to treat Lebanon as a free and independent nation" is aimed at maintaining Lebanon as an arena in which to settle "old scores."The Gathering rejected Assad's depiction of Lebanese demands to demarcate the Lebanese-Syrian border as an Israeli objective, saying such a comment was nothing short of an accusation of treason. "Overt Israeli requests aim above all at preserving the Syrian regime because it is a peaceful front for Israel and its policies," it said.The bloc said Assad's claims that Syria has positive relations with Lebanon were "a forgery of history and an underestimation of the intellect of the Lebanese, who suffered greatly under the Syrian regime of tutelage and its decision to extend the mandate of the president by force."It added: "It seems that Assad's memory has failed him because he forgot that the popular Lebanese majority that rallied on March 14 at Freedom Square was the one that toppled the regime of tutelage in Lebanon and forced it to observe international opinion and pull its forces from Lebanese territories."The bloc criticized "Syria's continuous age-old maneuvers to elude the international probe" into Hariri's murder. It added that such "dangerous decisions" only provided Israel with yet another "golden opportunity to elude" UN resolutions. - The Daily Star

Parliamentary dialogue best hope to end crisis
'Officially saying resistance not a militia would cause problem internationally'
By Raed El Rafei -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: With the Cabinet majority refusing to officially declare that "the resistance is not a militia," there is still no hope of seeing Amal and Hizbullah ministers back in Cabinet anytime soon. One positive sign, however, came in the official call for an extraordinary parliamentary session which was regarded by the major political forces as a way to dissolve current political tensions and start a dialogue within state institutions. A spokesperson for Premier Fouad Siniora told The Daily Star Monday: "The Cabinet cannot say explicitly that Hizbullah is not a militia, because it will cause Lebanon problems with the international community." The spokesperson said that: "Such a statement would mean that UN resolution 1559 had already been implemented and thus put Lebanon in a state of confrontation with the Security Council." Siniora's spokesperson said that although the ministerial crisis was escalating, the majority force have not halted negotiations with the Shiite groups. "We are just trying to solve the problem without having to face the international community, he said.
Speaker Nabih Berri had earlier told As Safir newspaper in an interview published on Monday that Amal considered the crisis could be resolved by a clear Cabinet statement that the resistance is not a militia. Berri said Shiite ministers (who have been boycotting Cabinet sessions for the past five weeks) were not going to resign. He added that he was awaiting a solution to the crisis to come from the head of the Parliamentary majority MP Saad Hariri.
Hariri's meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal last week suggested that an Arab initiative could be launched again soon to help in finding a solution as well as easing tension between Lebanon and Syria. Earlier suggestions by Faisal about an Arab initiative to solve the Syrian Lebanese crisis were described by Siniora as "Syrian ideas which the Lebanese did not agree upon." Siniora softened his stance Sunday by saying that "Lebanon could not refuse any Arab initiative that offers solutions suiting the interests of the Lebanese."
Meanwhile, at Siniora's request, President Emile Lahoud signed a decree on Monday that would kick-start the extraordinary parliamentary session. "The agenda of the session will include studying and approving the 2005 and 2006 public budget bills, and other draft laws already submitted to parliament as well as those which will be presented later," a presidential statement said. In a move to ease tension between Amal and March 14 forces, MP Butros Harb said the start of the parliamentary session will "help launch political dialogue," following his visit to Berri on Monday. He said that the session would give lawmakers the occasion to "discuss and monitor the performance of the government." He added that the majority demanded appointments within the Higher Judiciary Council take place urgently, so that a judicial investigator in the assassination of former MP Gebran Tueni could be named. As for the dialogue initiative which Berri had called for, Harb conveyed Berri's fears concerning the launching of dialogue in the middle of the current political tension.
"Easing tension before starting dialogue would help create a suitable atmosphere for political forces to meet and discuss all problematic issues," he said. Berri told As Safir earlier that the framework for dialogue was ready, but that it should be preceded by solving the ministerial crisis. He said the dialogue would bring political forces represented in Parliament around a table to discuss, mainly, investigations, UN resolution 1559 and Lebanese Syrian relations.
In an interview with The Voice of Lebanon radio station on Monday, Telecommunications Minister, Marwan Hamade said the extraordinary parliamentary session was an important occasion to bring dialogue back to state institutions.
Meanwhile, Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad said that the ministerial crisis would continue as long as the majority was taking its strength from the U.S. Speaking on Tele Liban on Monday, he said that the Cabinet should issue a statement to ensure that the Resistance is not a militia. He said "if the Shiite ministers wanted to lead to the destabilization of the country, they would have resigned," adding that it would be very difficult to form a new Cabinet.

Mehlis hands over his leak-proof inquiry to Brammertz
By Leila Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: An official handover ceremony was held at the Justice Ministry Monday between Detlev Mehlis, the former head of the UN investigation into the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri, and his successor Serge Brammertz. Brammertz, a Belgian magistrate and ex-deputy prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, and Mehlis met briefly with Justice Minister Charles Rizk and several high-ranking Lebanese magistrates in the morning at the ministry.
Brammertz pledged to work with "total independence and impartiality," while Mehlis praised the level of cooperation between the Judiciary and UN probe to date. The former probe chief said "nothing related to the investigations' procedures was leaked to the media, neither from the UN probe or the Lebanese judiciary," a thing that, according to the German magistrate, "strengthened" the level of trust between both bodies. Rizk said that, in light of the "dangerous crimes" that have occurred in Lebanon, "resorting to international expertise has become a must to solve these crimes.
"That's why Lebanon welcomed UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1644, which called in part for the establishing of the UN probe, extending its term and expanding its mission to include the rest of the assassinations that took place after Hariri's murder."The UN investigation commission is expected to assist the ongoing Lebanese investigations into these later crimes, in addition to continuing its own probe into Hariri's murder. During the course of the investigations, Brammertz is expected to meet with President Bashar Assad, if the Syrian ruler accepts a UN request to speak with him.
Assad has so far remained defiant, stressing his immunity as president under international law from taking part in such an interview. The UN probe has also requested to interview several other Syrian officials and citizens, including Foreign Minister Farouq al-Sharaa. Damascus has given the green light to Sharaa's meeting with UN investigators.
Meanwhile, Lebanese Investigating Magistrate Elias Eid was reported to have interrogated a witness in the Hariri case on Monday but no details were immediately available. It was also widely expected that the UN Security Council would issue a presidential statement regarding the implementation of Resolution 1559 on Monday, based on the October briefing of Terje Roed-Larsen, a UN special envoy. One UN diplomat in New York told The Daily Star before it went to press that the statement would likely be issued in the coming hours.

Qabbani and Qabalan meet in attempt to resolve internal crisis
By Nafez Qawas -Daily Star correspondent -Tuesday, January 24, 2006
BEIRUT: Talks on the need to resolve the internal crisis intensified Monday, as contacts with top officials were made during a meeting between Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani and Vice President of the Higher Shiite Council Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan. Qabalan paid a visit to Qabbani where discussions focused on the need to put an end to internal political bickering. During the meeting, Qabbani contacted Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and the head of the Future parliamentary bloc, MP Saad Hariri and asked them "to deploy all possible efforts to resolve the current crisis."
In remarks following the meeting, Qabalan said:
"We have met with his eminence to discuss the tension gripping the country, which resulted from negative reactions and counterreactions."He added: "We ask all parties to adopt a logical rhetoric, which brings the Lebanese people together, since we all agree on the fact that Lebanon is a country for all." "We address all politicians and ask them to protect their people and the future of their country; we should support the resistance because it is not targeted against the Lebanese, but against the Israeli enemy," Qabalan continued. He also rejected "any Arab or foreign tutelage," and urged Berri to "immediately launch dialogue and Siniora to acknowledge the resistance, like it is mentioned in the ministerial policy statement.""We also ask Amal and Hizbullah ministers to end their boycott of the Cabinet, after Siniora acknowledges their resistance," he added. Qabalan said that he supported "any Arab initiative that leads Lebanon to a flourishing future."

Legislator Edmond Naim Dies at Age 88
Legislator Edmond Naim, a member of Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces bloc in parliament, died Monday of old age. He was 88. Naim was elected to parliament in 2005 and was the most senior member of the legislative body.
Born in Beirut's Shiah district in 1918, Naim received his law degree in 1941 from the French Law Faculty. He became head of the Lebanese University in 1970 and remained in this post for seven consecutive years, the National News Agency said. Naim's funeral service will be held at Mar Mikhael Church in Shiah on Wednesday. He will then be buried in his hometown of Deir al-Kamar in the Chouf mountains. The late legislator headed Geagea's defense team when the LF leader was accused of being behind the 1994 bombing of "Notre Dame de Delivrance" Church north of Beirut. He forged a close friendship with Druze leader Kamal Jumblat and was involved with the founding of the Progressive Socialist Party. However, he later withdrew his membership from the party, the NNA said. In 1985, Naim was appointed Central Bank Governor by former President Amin Gemayel. Naim wrote many essays including one comparing Lebanese law with the French legal code and one on socialist ideology as it is applied in Lebanon.
Beirut, Updated 23 Jan 06, 14:51

Charges against Damascus raise tensions in Beirut
by Jihad Issa - Jumblatt attacks Syria; Nasrallah defends it. Brammertz might visit the Syrian capital in the next few days.
Damascus (AsiaNews) – International pressures on the Syrian regime are increasingly being felt in Lebanon. Anxiety is growing over what Serge Serge Brammertz, the new head of the United Nations commission of inquiry into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, might do as he begins his work. Some sources expect Mr Brammertz to visit Syria in the next few days. Officially, the Syrian position is one of appreciation for the Belgian judge’s ‘understanding attitude’, but in a speech that was front and centre in the Syrian press, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claimed the right not to be treated as a “mere witness” by the commission. He was also highly critical of those Lebanese political leaders who insist on Syria’s guilt in the Hariri affair.
Speaking Saturday before the Arab Lawyers’ convention—for the first time not attended by Lebanese lawyers—the Syrian president reiterated his willingness to cooperate with the commission as long as it respected Syrian sovereignty. Without naming them, Assad did not mince words about Walid Jumblatt, Samir Geagea, and the members of March 14 Movement (whose protests led to Syrian pullout from Lebanon). Meanwhile, the streets of Damascus saw more “spontaneous” demonstrations take place yesterday in favour of the president. Jumblatt reacted to the Syrian president’s speech by making an appeal to March 14 Movement supporters. He told them to get ready for a sit-in on February 14, the first anniversary of Hariri’s assassination. The Druze leader said that Assad’s speech was a sign that he was running out of options. He also reiterated his charges against the Syrian government, the “only culprit in all the terrorist incidents in Lebanon during the Syrian presence in Lebanon”. As they continue to paralyse the Lebanese cabinet, pro-Syrian groups in Lebanon echoed Assad’s statements. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah yesterday did not refrain from naming the Syrian president’s critics. For his support, Syria’s state-controlled press heaped praise on the Shiite leader.
In a speech at al-Achraf University, Nasrallah called Jumblatt an “unstable and unbalanced politician guilty of many crimes”. By contrast, he expressed his total trust in General Michel Aoun, a “man of integrity capable of leading the country towards stability”. This, the daily L’Orient Le Jour wrote, is a sign that Aoun backs Hezbollah. Nasrallah also criticised the work of the UN commission of inquiry when it was headed by German judge Detlev Mehlis. He called on his successor “not to manipulate and politicise his mission”. Speaking before a crowd of 20,000 in the university’s stadium, he said “there was no danger of a civil war in Lebanon because “we [Hezbollah], who are the only ones who could fight it, want peace”.

Blair rejects action against Iran and Syria
(Filed: 23/01/2006)Telegraph co.uk
Tony Blair insisted today he did not want to take any action against Iran or Syria, saying it would be a "terrible miscalculation" if they thought otherwise. Tony Blair the countries needed to understand what was acceptable
The Prime Minister said he wanted good relations with both countries and had no desire to destabilise them.
"We are happy to have better relations with Syria and Iran," he said. "We have no desire whatever to act against people in Iran or people in Syria." But he said the only way good relations could be established was if the countries stuck to their international obligations and did not support terrorism in other countries. "I am afraid at the moment that is not the case," he said.
"Iran is giving active support to terrorism round the Middle East and elsewhere. "And there is the situation obviously as a result of what has happened in Lebanon where there are very serious question marks about what has happened with Syria.
"There would be a terrible misunderstanding, indeed a terrible miscalculation being made both by the Syrian and Iranian regimes if they thought that we were interested in destabilising those two countries. "We are not. We want good relations with those two countries. But it has got to be on the basis of a common understanding as to what is acceptable in the international community and what isn't."Jan. 22, 2006 1:37 | Updated Jan. 22, 2006 8:13

Disarm Hizbullah
Hizbullah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah last Thursday attempted to wash his hands of Israel Air Force navigator Ron Arad, and announced, while concocting a convoluted plot, that Arad is dead and responsible for his own demise. Nevertheless, Nasrallah continues to demand the release of all Lebanese incarcerated in Israel, some with heinous terrorist records. Arad's warplane was shot down over Lebanon in 1986. He reportedly was first held by Amal, then "traded" to Hizbullah. While Arad was in Hizbullah's hands, all traces of him vanished. He may have been handed over to Iran, which is unlikely to own up to anything.
Years of efforts to obtain any reliable shred of information have been to no avail. As part of the swap that returned Elhanan Tannenbaum to Israel two years ago, Israel agreed to a second round of Lebanese prisoner releases if evidence about Arad were provided. It's hard to tell to what extent, if at all, Nasrallah made an earnest effort to determine Arad's fate. The record of deceit that accompanied this entire heartless episode makes such an assessment impossible.
Besides assorted fabrications, there have even been attempts to palm off bogus biological tissue, claimed to have originated from Arad's remains. DNA probes revealed these as spurious.
The yarn spun by Nasrallah a few days ago is a recycled version of one already peddled 10 years back. It's as fantastic and patently unbelievable as is much of what was hitherto relayed to Israel. Though he previously professed ignorance regarding Arad's fate, Nasrallah now claims that Arad fled his captors, wandered in unfamiliar mountainous terrain and fell to his death in an unknown ravine.
This obviously doesn't pass the preliminary test of logic - if Nasrallah doesn't know where or how Arad supposedly met his end, how can he presume to theorize so imaginatively? The only plausible conclusion is that there's no truth to any of this.
Israel's defense establishment is perfectly justified in its decision to discount Nasrallah's disinformation and continue to assume that Arad is alive until irrefutable proof is furnished one way or the other. This must be the operational premise regardless of ever-gnawing doubts, particularly as nearly 20 years have elapsed since Arad's capture.
Israel cannot morally adopt any other formal stance. We know Hizbullah held Arad and hence is responsible for him and must be held accountable.
If ever there were a case that highlighted Hizbullah's manipulative mendacity and utter callousness, this would be it. Sponsored by both Iran and Syria, Hizbullah not only held hostages for ransom but withheld information from anguished families, using obfuscation in humanitarian cases as a weapon of war and that in order to secure freedom for notorious slayers of children.
Nasrallah has so far been foiled by his bid to effect a Tannenbaum swap sequel, which would have led to the release of Samir Kuntar. In 1979, Kuntar and his cohorts broke into the Nahariya apartment of Smadar and Danny Haran. They marched Danny and four-year-old Anat to the beach, where they smashed the child's head against the rocks and then shot the horrified father. Smadar hid in a loft with the couple's two-year-old daughter, clamping her child's mouth to muffle her cries lest they be detected by Kuntar's band, only to discover she had smothered Yael to death.
The same gang also killed policeman Eliyahu Shahar.
Nasrallah made Kuntar's release a matter of personal prestige. Because Nasrallah now claims he has no information to bargain with, we must be extra vigilant to make sure he doesn't successfully resort to more deadly extortion in the aid of the same agenda.
In addition, the international pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hizbullah and deploy its own army on its southern border, and on Syria to complete its withdrawal from Lebanon, should be increased. This ruthless organization is not just Israel's problem, it symbolizes a status Lebanon seeks to shed - that of Syrian satrapy plagued by marauding militias.
We should also recall that the official US 9/11 Commission Report states that al-Qaida terrorists were sent to Hizbullah for training before the 9/11 attacks. Accordingly, disarming Hizbullah is not just a priority in the pursuit of Lebanese independence and Israeli security, but also in confronting the current threat posed by Iran and in the global war against Islamist terrorism.

Kofi Annan: a fragile environment prevails in Lebanon
CGGL Staff- New York, Jan. 23: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan reported to the UN Security that "a fragile political and security environment continues to prevail in Lebanon," Nevertheless, he recommended to the Council the extension of the mandate of the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon for six months. His comments came in his report to the UN Security Council last week on UNIFIL for the period from July 22, 2005 until January 20, 2006. Annan also criticized the Lebanese government's choice not to deploy its army in the South and to control breaches along the Blue Line made by Lebanese resistance group Hizbullah. Annan had received a letter from the Lebanese government on January 9 requesting that the Security Council extend the mandate of UNIFIL for a further six months. The mandate of UNIFIL is set to expire on January 31, 2006. It had been continuously extended since the force was established in 1978, with the most recent extension taking place in accordance with Resolution 1614, of July 29, 2005. "The authority and control of the Lebanese government remained limited in the South, in general, and in the areas of the Blue Line, in particular," said Annan, adding: "My senior representatives in the region and I, in addition to a number of concerned Member States, called on numerous occasions on the Lebanese government to extend control over all its territory." "The Lebanese government continues to maintain its position that, without a comprehensive peace with Israel, Lebanese armed forces would not act as a border guard for Israel and would not be deployed along the Blue Line." Yet Annan didn't slam Israel for the various violations it made to the Lebanese territorial and space sovereignty, but merely pointed that the Israeli breaches to Lebanese airspace disrupt the fragile calm. Annan also reiterated his call upon all parties to exercise "utmost restraint," to contribute to stability in the wider region. According to undisclosed diplomatic sources in New York, extending UNIFIL's mandate will most likely be faced by "fierce opposition from the U.S. in the Security Council."

LEBANON: HARIRI'S SON TO MEET U.S. PRESIDENT BUSH
Beirut, 23 Jan. (AKI) - The son of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri, arrives in Washington Monday for a five day visit to the United Sates which will include a meeting with President Geroge W. Bush. Saad ad-Din Hariri leads the anti-Syrian coalition that won Lebanon's June 2005 elections, the first to be held without a Syrian military presence in the country in almost 30 years. Accoriding to officials of Hariri's political movement "The Future" the purpose of the visit is to win US support for the creation of an international tribunal to try those accused of murdering his father in a 14 February 2005 bombing
A UN probe has implicated top Lebanese and Syrian security officials in the attack which killed 22 people

LEBANON: Year in Review 2005 - Developments in democracy
DUBAI, 23 January (IRIN) - Political observers often cite Lebanon as an example of freedom and democracy amidst other non-democratic states in the region.  They point to the country's relatively free press, and the fact that no major political parties have been banned. Consequently, Lebanon's political landscape has not been dominated by one family or party, but by a variety of faces and parties. Still, according to Oussama Safa, General Director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies (LCPS), "Lebanon is a free country, [but] not a very democratic one." It is sometimes described as a confessional parliamentary democracy, with power shared among the country's 17 religious communities, as well as among those not affiliated to any religion. The political system is based on a 1943 National Covenant, which stipulates - among other things - that parliamentary seats are divided according to a 1932 national census. So, if Greek Catholics make up 5 percent of the country's population, they are entitled to 5 percent of the current 128 parliamentary seats.
There is also an unwritten agreement that Lebanon's president has to be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shi'ite Muslim.
The 1989 Taif Agreement which officially ended Lebanon's 15-year-old civil war, modified the covenant by giving more seats to Lebanon's Shi'ites, and dividing parliamentary seats equally among Christians and Muslims. According to Safa, confessionalism "is in fact the main obstacle to create a representative, merit-based parliamentary democracy". "There are no political parties or programmes in Lebanon," he explained. "People vote for their sectarian leaders, who are often medieval, feudal overlords in four-wheel drives, who abuse the system to consolidate their power." The system has been corrupted primarily by the constant changing of the national election laws determining the size and make-up of electoral districts, Safa said. The 1989 accord stipulates that parliamentary elections are held on the basis of "muhafazats," or the six large administrative districts into which Lebanon is divided: North Lebanon, Beirut, Mount Lebanon, Beqaa valley, Nabatiyeh and South Lebanon. During the first post-war elections in 1992, however, a new electoral law decided that in the Mount Lebanon district, elections would take place in six smaller districts, while the Bekaa Valley was cut into three smaller districts.
During the 2000 elections, the muhafazat were divided into 14 electoral districts where, for example, the anti-Syrian Christian region of Bsharre, became part of the predominantly Sunni electoral district. Mount Lebanon was divided into four and Beirut into three smaller districts. "Pre-election negotiations to change electoral districts have always been part of the Lebanese consensual system," said Safa. "After the Civil War ended, however, it was done under complete Syrian tutelage with the sole aim to on the one hand, curtail and prevent political powers critical of Syria, and on the other hand, to push pro-Syrian candidates into power."
The changing of electoral districts is not the only problem facing Lebanon's democracy. According to the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE), formed in 1996 to monitor elections and educate voters, the 2000 elections were characterised by many irregularities such as "the illegal use of government vehicles to transport voters to polls" and "vote buying".
"Following the killing of [former Prime Minister Rafik] Hariri in February 2005," Safa continued, "Lebanon had a golden opportunity for change, but unfortunately local leaders again exploited the system to strengthen their positions".
A roller-coaster of events followed the death of Hariri, starting with the withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005. Experts say Syria had ruled Lebanon de facto, after it entered the country in 1976 to intervene in Lebanese fighting.
A continuing UN probe has found the assassination of Hariri "could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials". Before part of the report was released in October 2005, there were mass protests in Lebanon calling for a Syrian pull-out.
The 2005 elections were the first legislative elections in 30 years to take place in the absence of a Syrian military presence, a fact that gave them remarkable vitality, according to a report published by the United Nations Development Programme on Governance in the Arab Region (POGAR).The total number of registered Lebanese voters amounted to 2.8 million, of whom 1.2 million voted. The rate of participation was 42.9 percent, ranging from 36 percent in Beirut to 55.5 percent in Mount Lebanon, the POGAR report said. "The elections were characterised by unprecedented alliances and coalitions across the political board that left a very small chance for independent candidates to win," the report also stated.
During the elections in the district of Aley, for example, Druze followers of Walid Jumblatt, teamed up with the Shi'ite "Party of God" Hezbollah, and the Christian right-wing party "The Lebanese Forces" to counter the list headed by former Prime Minister, General Michel Aoun. Though "List Jumblatt" only had a few hundred votes more than the "List Aoun," the former took all of the seats. "One of the first things we want to introduce to improve the calibre of Lebanon's democracy," said LCPS's Oussama Safa, "is to replace the winner-takes-all principle by that of proportionality, which means the candidates with most votes take the seats, regardless of the list they're on".
Other measures the LCPS is pushing for include a quota system to secure a minimum of 30 percent of women representatives, and an independent committee to organize and oversee elections. "We know we cannot take the confessional system head-on, as it is too deeply rooted in our society," Safa said, "but we can introduce new measures step by step, which in the long run make it redundant".According to Safa, however, it is not enough to create a better system if even basic democratic values are not respected. "A healthy democracy is essentially based on dialogue," he said. "The Lebanese, however, do not have dialogue. They debate from ever-polarized positions, which is a very dangerous development."
"Take Hezbollah and the Lebanese Forces," he said. "They are unable to listen to and respect each other's differences."

A dangerous escalation
TODAY'S EDITORIAL
January 23, 2006 -Washington Times
The whirlwind of events in recent days involving Iran, Syria and Israel is ominous, suggesting that the rogue regimes in Tehran and Damascus may have made a strategic decision to escalate the level of conflict with the Jewish state -- and perhaps with Washington and the European Union as well.
Consider what has taken place since Thursday: A suicide bomber affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (and apparently in cooperation with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah organization as well) blew himself up in the middle of Tel Aviv, injuring more than 20 Israelis; while visiting Damascus, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met for 90 minutes with Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, the leader of the PIJ in Damascus, along with representatives of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups; Israel said that, in the past year alone, Iran has doubled to $10 million its funding for PIJ operations in the West Bank and Gaza.
Meanwhile in Damascus, Mr. Ahmadinejad held a separate meeting with Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, which receives an estimated $100 million annually from Iran. (Aside from al Qaeda, no modern terrorist organization has killed more Americans than Hezbollah, and it plays a major role in fomenting Palestinian violence in the West Bank and Gaza). Mr. Assad took Iran's side in the nuclear confrontation with Washington, the International Atomic Energy Agency, etc. and made the bizarre allegation that Israel was behind Yasser Arafat's death. Meanwhile, Mr. Ahmadinejad continued to say that Israel is an illegitimate state and its citizens should be relocated to Europe.
For its part, Israel, while emphasizing that it wants to avoid armed confrontation, has not shied away from talking about the role played by state sponsors of terror such as Iran and Syria in fomenting violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Saturday night that Israel would under no circumstances accept a nuclear Iran, adding that his country is preparing for the possibility that diplomatic efforts to prevent this from taking place would fail. Mr. Mofaz described the combination of a radical regime, long-range missiles and attempts to develop a nuclear capability as a shreat to Israel and the world, and warned that Mr. Ahmadinejad's policies would be disastrous for Iran.
Perhaps the most disturbing thing about Thursday's bombing in Tel Aviv and the events in Damascus is the realization that the state sponsors of the terrorists who target Israel may be on the verge of obtaining a nuclear shield. If the Islamofascists in Tehran succeed in this endeavor, it will be a geopolitical catastrophe for the United States and the free world.

Lebanese versus Lebanon: Something new, something old, something tricky
Manuela Paraipan - 1/23/2006
Last year parliamentary elections were significant for Lebanon. After decades of Syrian occupation, the Lebanese were finally able to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The goal was to build a genuinely democratic Lebanon, free of Syrian control. At that time many Lebanese from outside and inside Lebanon were highly optimistic about the immediate future of Lebanon. But, soon they were to find out that democracy is more than voting and that the regular tribal rivalries, and back doors broken deals to serve the selfish interest of this or that party were back in place. The fact that Lebanon has a confessional political system, with the Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims, Druze, Christians, and others seeking a leading role in the new political environment, did not simplify the situation.Test
The Syrian withdrawal and the parliamentary elections had substantially changed the Lebanese political change. The downside was that the main political players did not change; the laws of the elections were of Syrian origin, thus discriminatory and not truthful to today’s reality. Also, in its long time domination of Lebanon, Damascus has managed to put people loyal to its agenda in all layers of the Lebanese society. The presence of such individuals in the political arena had further complicated an already complex situation.
If the Parliament and the Government changed, the President of the Republic did not. President Lahoud came to power on November 1998, after Damascus’s refusal to extent for a second time President Hrawi’s mandate.
In 2004, Syria had pressured the Lebanese Parliament to amend the constitution in order to allow President Lahoud to remain in power for three more years, after the legitimate ending of his mandate.
By having Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian politician President of a democratic Lebanon that finally managed to escape the Syrian tutelage, is the least a frustrating and dissatisfactory circumstance. Although, a witness of the historic changes of the Lebanese political arena, President Lahoud stubbornly refuses to step down. Not long ago, the Presidency spokesman Rafik Shalala told the Associated Press, that in spite of the internal and external pressure to resign, President Lahoud would carry on his responsibilities “until the end of his mandate in 2007.”
But, even so, there are quite a few names of valuable politicians who have already expressed their intentions to candidate for the higher post in the State.
General Michel Aoun, opposed from day one the Syrian presence and interference in Lebanon. He has served briefly as Prime Minister and President, before fleeing in exile, in France. He returned to Lebanon, after the Syrian withdrawal and continues to be a critic of Damascus failed policy towards Lebanon, and an advocate of democracy. He enjoys a broad support among the Christians, and generally speaking among those who favor a free, independent, democratic and secular government.
Nassib Lahoud, a distant relative of the President Emile Lahoud, and a former Ambassador to United States is an appreciated politician by some of the Christian sect, and also by individuals of other sects. His supporters praise him for being a moderate, someone who has sufficient diplomatic and political experience to become a leader of Lebanon.
Nayla Moawad, is wife of the former slain President, Rene Moawad. She entered the political arena, as a Member of Parliament in 1990. Since then, she has won several mandates and now is Minister for Social Affairs. During the years she has proved to be an enthusiastic promoter of women and children’s rights. I have met her for an interview last year, and she has struck me as a distinguished, very well educated, knowledgeable and ambitious lady. While it is rarely to have a woman elected as President, it is not something totally unrealistic.
Chibli Mallat, a prominent Lebanese lawyer, announced his intention to run in the next Presidential elections, last year at a press conference at the
UN Correspondents Association. Mallat said: "Mr. Lahoud has lost all credibility and now that he is under investigation, it is worse. We cannot find a single voice in favor of Mr. Lahoud in Beirut today.” He added: “Let us all compete regionally, internationally, on ideas, on achievement, on standing and then the deputies choose. What I would ask is for democratic governments to support the process, and to support the quick exit of Mr. Lahoud.”
Of great interest for the future of Lebanon is (or at least so it should be) the wave of young politicians, and the many young freedom advocates.
Metn MP Pierre Gemayel is son of the former President Amin Gemayel and grandson of late Sheikh Pierre Gemayel, the founder of the Kataeb party and a prominent, respected politician. Pierre Gemayel, is said to be a high caliber diplomat, and a skilled, ambitious politician who is following the footsteps of his father.
Samy Gemayel is the younger son of President Amin Gemayel, and although not a politician he is an intellectual advocating for a free, independent Lebanon. Samy Gemayel seems to be in search of a new political formula to address the current needs of Lebanon, and in this respect the force of his message is proving successful in drawing national and international attention. The Secretary General of the American Lebanese Coordination Council (ALCC), Pierre Maroun described Gemayel as “a nationalist with a greater cause, and a fighter with a noble mission to accomplish”, and I second his opinion. I have had the honor and the pleasure to meet and discuss with Samy Gemayel at a time when Lebanon was passing through its incipient “orange” phase of democratization. He spoke with great fervor about his vision of a prosperous free Lebanon. I did not expect such a high level of commitment towards Lebanon from a young man, in his early 20s. My error. With his charisma, bravery and sharpness I expect to hear more often of him, and of his activities within the group, “Loubnanouna” or “Our Lebanon.” (Www.loubnanouna.org)
Another notable presence is that of MP Wael Abou Faour, member of Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). He is an ambitious individual, who started as a student activist, and then became the PSP youth coordinator, to later move to a position within the party’s political bureau. One may not agree with his political credo, but that do not shadow his career accomplishments.
Saad Hariri entered politics under tragic circumstances, after the assassination of his father, the former Premier Rafik Al Hariri. Shortly after assuming the leadership position of the Future movement, he told the AFP agency, "I think I am merely a symbol for now. I need to work hard in the coming four years to ... fill a little bit my father's shoes."
Although inexperienced in politics, he is a tenacious businessman holding a graduate degree from Georgetown University in Washington. He successfully headed Oger, the Saudi based firm of his father, one of the largest and most prosperous Middle Eastern business organizations.
Recently he proposed the creation of a youth government, a sort of a watchdog entity that would have the opportunity of closely following the Lebanese government’s actions. Hopefully this entity would also have the means of reacting to it. The idea belonged to the assassinated MP Gebran Tueni, who was a well-known journalist and a constant critic of Syria’s maneuverings in Lebanon. Saad Hariri promised to further support the idea, in order to allow youths to actively participate at a decision making level.
The Shiit parties, Amal and Hezbollah also have young, resourceful and competent members, but they are not as visible as it should be, taking in consideration that the old guard had enough time to prove its capabilities, and now it is the time to let others step into the middle of the action.
Talking about the old guard, three (among others) of its main representatives are still very much in power, namely Walid Jumblatt, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and Nabih Berri.
Walid Jumblatt, is the famous and controversial Druze leader of the Progressive Socialist Party. Once a warlord and a Syrian ally, Walid Jumblatt is now publicly calling for a regime change in Syria. His opponents nicknamed him, “the chameleon” because of his unexpected, often-sudden changes of political alliances and political discourse. What one can say about him, without fearing to be wrong is that Walid Jumblatt is certainly an unconventional politician.
Nabih Berri, is Speaker of the Parliament since 1992, former warlord, leader of the Shiit Amal Party and an influent politician inside and most probably, outside Lebanon as well. He is as astute individual with an impressive political career, in the sense that his actions deeply affected the lives of its fellow citizens and that he survived in his high-ranking position for a long time. He largely contributed, for the better or worse to today’s image of Lebanon. He is a supporter of Syria, and his critics say that he benefited a lot from this partnership. In the last eight months, he moderated his supportive rhetoric towards Bashar al Assad regime. For the time being he will continue playing the moderate game, without taking a publicly visible position against Syria, but nonetheless he appears to be willing to engage in a constructive dialogue with all the Lebanese political parties.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is the leader of Hezbollah (the Party of God), and of its militia. Under his command, Hezbollah succeeded to drive Israel put of Lebanon. This act has made Hezbollah popular, respected and even feared. A big minus of its leadership is the fact that by driven the Israeli army out, Sheikh Nasrallah did not offer his victory to the Lebanese people (as it was normal), but to his own militia. To this day, Hezbollah is completely controlling the South of Lebanon. Everything related to Hezbollah’s militia is pretty much peculiar, and the prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah (attention: not Israel and Lebanon, as it would have been normal – a state deals with another state) brokered by Germany, in 2004 is not making any difference. Hezbollah has refused to disarm, as the UN resolution 1559 and a large part of the Lebanese asks them to.
By taking Syria’s side, when everyone else in Lebanon is not, Hezbollah succeeded to partially isolate itself. In March 2005 when thousands gathered to protect against Damascus interference in Lebanon, Hezbollah found appropriate to distance itself from the rest of the Lebanese. Later on, it organized its own gathering, in support of Syria. To the very least their repeated positions against Lebanon is questionable.
Hezbollah also continues to attack Israel, whenever it sees as fit, without asking for a national consensus. Actually, the Israeli leadership warned Hezbollah that its provocative borders activities put at risk the entire Lebanon. The international or national laws, for that matter are not made for Hezbollah to respect. By analyzing its activities, the conclusion is that its either that Hezbollah is right (and everyone else is wrong) and the United States, and Israel are conspiring together to invade and rule Lebanon, or Hezbollah is inventing these type of pretexts only to hold on to their weapons and power, for a goal, yet undisclosed to the majority of us, the profanes. While many disagree with Sheikh Nasrallah’s agenda, his continuous social support of the deprived Shiia community deserves recognition and respect. However, he has done little to politically enforce and modernize its own party. Professor Habib Malek, said the following about Hezbollah’s ideology: “I think they may have realized that without this business [resistance], their ideology is completely bankrupt. It offers no answer to the challenges of modernity, in order to attract the youth in a free, pluralistic society. What really scares them is not the US or Israel but having to operate in an environment where their youth will have all the other options.”
The chain of assassinations overclouded the process of reshaping Lebanon’s democracy. Many suspect that the killings have been commanded by Syria, in the fashion of any dictatorship entity that sees itself above all, and acts accordingly. The Reform Party of Syria (RPS) has signaled repeatedly that although obligated to implement the UN Security Council resolutions 1546, 1559, 1595, 1636, and 1644, Damascus regime declined to do so.
The ex-Vice President of Syria, Abdul Halim Kaddam appeared on Al-Arabiya TV on December 30, 2005 and condemned the regime of President Assad for the tragedies that happened in Lebanon in the last year. Specifically, Kaddam said that Assad has indeed threatened Rafik Hariri, thus implying that Bashar Assad may know more than he is willing to recognize about this case. It was the first time when a Syrian high-ranking official publicly revealed such valuable information’s in support of Detlev Mehlis preliminary reports conclusions. In this context, Kaddam become a key witness in the UN investigation, and the highest-ranking Baathist official to have turned against the regime.
The United States and France are closely monitoring Damascus regime. There is much pressure put on President Assad to cooperate with the international community, but not too many encouraging signs from Damascus. Some are saying that Syria needs a regime change, preferably through a home breed revolution; others believe that it is enough to impose strong sanctions on Syria, and the third group is advocating the toppling of the Baath Syrian system, in the fashion of Iraq.
Taking in consideration that Iraq is a young, yet unstable democracy, and the dangerous moves of the Iranian mullahs, it is unlikely (though, not impossible) to see the United States opening another front with Syria. Everyone would like to see a smooth transition from dictatorship to liberal, western style democracy, or to some sort of Arab style democracy.
The Lebanese parties, Christian or Muslim should rise above the usual tribal interests or hidden agendas, and strongly condemn the Syrian long-time aggressiveness towards it, and moreover ask Syria to pay for its wrongdoings. While the United States, France and UN can assist the Lebanese in doing so, the international community cannot do the work of the Lebanese. Bilal Sharara, the Secretary General of the Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Commission said that, “We, do not need a or made in solution; we need a Lebanese solution to our problems.” And, he was right. All we can do now is wait and hope that the Lebanese will take advantage of the rather rare and invaluable opportunity of any Middle Eastern people, that of deciding itself it’s present and future.
**Manuela Paraipan has been published in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Times, World Security Network (WSN), World Press, Yemen Times and other publications.

Hezbollah leader warns Lebanese not to conspire with America
BEIRUT (AP) - 22.1.06:  The leader of the militant Hezbollah group on Sunday warned Lebanese that whoever co-operates with the United States against his organization would "repent" their mistake. Sheik Hassan Nasrallah's comments came amid tension between his group and anti-Syrian politicians, some of whom are calling for disarming Hezbollah.
"Whoever dreams about getting rid of Hezbollah in any position is mistaken," Nasrallah said in a speech at a graduation ceremony for 1,300 Hezbollah members and supporters.
Nasrallah criticized U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman and Assistant U.S. Secretary of State David Welch, who have been accused by Hezbollah of interfering in Lebanese affairs. Welch told Lebanon's LBC Television Thursday that Hezbollah should not be in the government and that the United States does not consider it a militia but a terrorist organization.
In reference to Lebanese who might co-operate with Americans, the black-turbaned cleric said: "Whoever wants to work to get rid of Hezbollah will repent it and will be mistaken."
The Lebanese government says Hezbollah is a resistance movement.
UN Security Council Resolution 1559, issued in 2004, calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon - a reference to Hezbollah and Palestinian guerrilla factions.
Hezbollah says its weapons are a deterrence against future attacks by Israel, which twice invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982. Since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, Hezbollah has continued to fight Israel over a disputed patch of land on the border where Syria, Lebanon and Israel meet.
Some anti-Syrian politicians have said Hezbollah should disarm now since Israel has withdrawn from Lebanese territory.
"At the moment we feel that someone is carrying out this (American) dictation, we will not be shy and we will speak openly," Nasrallah said. "Whoever colludes in such an American conspiracy is a Zionist, an Israeli and a Sharonist," he said in reference to Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Interview with Ziad Abs of the Political Bureau of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement
Manuela Paraipan - 1/25/2006
An interview with Ziad Abs, Political Bureau of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) - General Aoun's movement. During her last trip to Lebanon, Manuela Paraipan, who writes for the Global Politician and the World Security Network, interviewed Mr. Abs.Test
MP: Ziad, when did you become active in the Free Patriotic Movement and what is your current position?
Ziad Abs: I joined the movement in 1990, after General Aoun left the country. Since then I have held several positions, and now I am part of the group that handles the political contacts of the FPM inside and outside Lebanon.
MP: You have been arrested numerous times by both the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services. Can you share a few of your experiences with us?
Ziad Abs: I have been arrested 30 times in the last ten years: Two times by the Syrian intelligence directly, and the other times by the Lebanese intelligence that was working under Syrian command. In 1994, they arrested and took me to the Syrian intelligence headquarters. They arrested 300 political activists, saying that someone placed a bomb at one of their brigades in the mountains. We never found out if a bomb had really been placed there or if this was merely a pretext. I was held for two days. It was a terrible experience, because of the shouting and beatings of people. I could only wonder when it would be my turn.
The psychological effect was very powerful especially because I, along with the other prisoners, was handcuffed and blindfolded.
After 48 hours, Rustom Ghazale called me into his office. He was very nice and polite. He started by telling me that General Aoun is a very patriotic man, and he does not blame me for being part of his movement. However, I am a young man, thus I will need some support to get around. The whole story was about his attempt to find new collaborators. He gave me his private number, saying that he would be my guardian angel if I accepted the offer, which I obviously did not accept.
One of my toughest experiences was in the jail of the Ministry of Defense. We had organized a large demonstration for 14 March 1989, when we planned to deliver a letter to the UN headquarters to show our full support for UN Resolution 520. This resolution condemned the murder of Bashir Gemayel and asked for the withdrawal of all non-Lebanese forces from Lebanon.
Unfortunately, the intelligence service found out about the plan, and there were roadblocks in order to prevent our arrival at the headquarters. While leading the group, I noticed a guy on a motorcycle delivering pizza. I thought that if we could not get there as a group, then at least I could get there and deliver our message. So, I took the motorcycle and put the letter inside the pizza box. The army let me pass and once I was in the UN building, I told the security agent the story. He told me to wait and suddenly the police, army and intelligence agents rushed inside the building to arrest me. Instead of working for the UN, the security agent was actually a Syrian collaborator.
They took me to the jail in the Ministry of Defense. For 48 hours I was forced to stand on my feet, facing the wall, completely naked, and every time I tried to place my chin on my chest, someone slapped me. It was very demoralizing. At first, I had no idea where I was. They took a long detour so I thought that I was perhaps in Syria, especially since I heard soldiers around me speaking with a Syrian accent.
After these 48 hours, they took me to the interrogation room. They asked me questions they had asked me a few years ago when they first arrested me, to compare the answers. Afterwards, they brought me paper and pencil to write down what I had told them during the interrogation.
MP: Did you think about renouncing the position you held in the FPM?
Ziad Abs: After more experiences like what I've described to you, I decided to step down from my position with the FPM. I was not doing well at the university, and I had no normal life. Thus, I was out of action for two months. Then something happened and I changed my mind.
One day, I observed a car following me. I took some turns, but it still followed me. Then they signaled me to stop. The captain was from the Beirut intelligence and I knew him, because he had arrested me three times in the past. In essence, he told me the following: "I know you decided to stop, but let me tell you that we are still in the army, because there are people like you still asking for the freedom and independence of the country. What we cannot do now, you are doing. But if people like you would retreat, then eventually there would be nothing left to give us hope." It was a turning point for me. I decided to take up my responsibilities again.
MP: During your experiences, could you call your family, friends or your lawyer? Could you let someone know about your situation?
Ziad Abs: In the first years of the resistance, nothing was organized. People were arrested, and we did not know where they were being held. Eventually, we observed there was a pattern to the system and we organized ourselves to fit the system accordingly. When one guy was arrested, he had to try to call someone else to let them know. The person that was informed would then proceed to place pressure on the intelligence services by informing the media and international organizations. This would cause a scandal and if the scandal was too great, the Syrian or Lebanese intelligence would release the prisoner(s).
MP: What is the state of relations between other parties and the FPM?
Ziad Abs: For the opposition parties, it's clear that we are working together in the freedom revolution and we agree on several issues. Before the assassination of Mr. Hariri, the priority was not to get the Syrians out of Lebanon; some thought that this aim was too difficult to achieve without pressure from the international community. Therefore, most would have been satisfied to change and modernize the chaotic socio-economic and judicial systems.
However, now our primary task is to see the Syrians out, and then step-by-step we will get to the other issues we need to solve. We have weekly meetings with the opposition, and a few weeks ago we began a more constructive dialog with Hezbollah. With Amal there are contacts, but not a serious dialog. There is respect for what Hezbollah did for Lebanon, and we in the FPM understand their position because we have resisted the Syrians, as well. But they should disarm themselves - not immediately, but it is a goal that must be reached in the near future.
MP: Some of the opposition members and even General Aoun seem to believe that the Taef Agreement is more suitable than UN Resolution 1559. Actually, both are asking the very same thing. What is behind these declarations?
Ziad Abs: Everyone wants to see Hezbollah disarmed, but some fear that if they look too eager to implement UN Resolution 1559, they will look too pro-American. Therefore, they ask for the implementation of the Taef, which stipulates that all militias be disarmed. Hezbollah sustains that it is not a militia, but a resistance. Nonetheless, they will have to lay down the weapons, because we cannot have a country ruled by law and a democratic system while this, or that group controls a part of the country and has its own army.
MP: How do you see the democratization trend in the Middle East?
Ziad Abs: The Americans will not replace the Syrians. They do not have the interest, or the influence the Syrians had here. 15 years ago, the US was not greatly interested in having a free Lebanon; now things are different.
MP: What are the future prospects of the FPM?
Ziad Abs: We want to register as a political party, establish a clear hierarchy and emphasize our liberal ideology. Lebanon has 18 religions and we need a secular approach to ensure that what matters is citizenship, not a particular religion or community affiliation. The FPM is also lobbying for a more decentralized government - a government that will try to develop all parts of Lebanon, not only the Christian areas or for that matter the Muslim ones.
We are presently concentrating on the total withdrawal of Syria and then we need to filter the political class and get rid of the corrupt individuals that had been placed there by the Syrians. In a year's time, many things will have changed in Lebanon. I am sure we will have some new political parties that are more pragmatic and liberal-oriented to replace the classical ones.
**Manuela Paraipan has been published in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Times, World Security Network (WSN), World Press, Yemen Times and other publications.

Ayoon Wa Azan (Hezbollah and the Lebanese Structure)
Jihad el Khazen Al-Hayat - 23/01/06//
How does "Hezbollah" assess the seven months or so spent in the Cabinet of PM Fouad Siniora? Today I present a background that may be helpful in understanding the current political standoff, especially for the non-Lebanese Arab reader.
The idea of a quartet alliance was put forth before the elections on the basis that the "Future Bloc," "the Progressive Socialist Party," "Amal," and "Hezbollah," along with the Christian allies of every party, guarantee independence and stability. The alliance tackled the issue of the resistance, including UN resolution 1559, the relation with Syria, al-Taef agreement, the Arab sponsorship, civil peace, the institutions' State, and fighting corruption.
Hajj Hussein Khalil, the political assistant of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of "Hezbollah," says that it was assumed that major national issues should not proceed forward without an understanding between the four allies. However, Hezbollah's experience in governance revealed weird mysterious issues, filled with gaps.
Hezbollah felt, within the scope of its work in the cabinet, that governance was restricted to one side. Some clauses would suddenly be enlisted on the agenda, 24 hours before holding the session. The action grew to encompass fundamental political decisions.
I asked Hajj Hussein to present an example thereof. He mentioned MP Saad Hariri's request to discuss the issue of the Palestinian arms outside the camps. Hezbollah says that the solution can be reached through dialogue and understanding, although he did not hear of Palestinian military bases outside the camps, having been part of the resistance for more than 20 years. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah called President Bashar Assad and a major Palestinian delegation met with Sayyed Nasrallah, offering a withdrawal from these positions, which would be handed to elements from "Hezbollah". However, Sayyed Nasrallah refused the proposal because Hezbollah's practice never included fixed bases and because the party needed to consult its allies.
Hajj Hussein said that the dialogue made giant leaps. However, PM Siniora surprised them by holding a meeting for the Central Security Council under his leadership and took the decision to move army brigades to encircle the Palestinian bases near Beirut, in Naameh, and East Lebanon. The move stirred up a major shock and tension. Following an accident wherein a topographer was killed near these locales, Hezbollah deployed great efforts to open the blockade and withdraw the army. The question was: who ordered such a measure that might have destabilize the country and in connivance with whom? At this point, trust started to wane.
A second example pertains to what Hezbollah learned about commitments given by the cabinet to Terje Roed-Larsen, the international envoy, about establishing a mechanism to implement the rest of the clauses of UN resolution 1559, with regard to the Palestinian arms and the Lebanese resistance arms, i.e. "Hezbollah." The party thought that it was just a rumor until Larsen stated that the Lebanese government confirmed its commitment to implement the rest of the clauses of UN resolution 1559, although it kept repeating it was a Lebanese issue to be discussed by the Lebanese, outside the UN. This incident coincided with PM Siniora' s inclusion of a clause in the cabinet agenda, which was not originally therein, calling to deal with the issue of the Palestinian arms inside the camps.
The international tribunal is another example of these conflicting stances. It was approved by the majority and opposed by Hezbollah. The latter's opinion was that the Security Council is dominated by the US, thus, issues may start in one direction and end up in the opposite direction. UN resolution 1559 was initiated because the French opposed the extension of President Lahoud's mandate, it ended as a sword aimed at the Lebanese asking them to hand over the arms of the resistance and the Palestinians.
Hajj Hussein says that MP Saad Hariri agreed to discuss the idea of an international tribunal and commissioned MP Bahij Tabbara to represent him in the dialogue. A session was indeed held in the house of a common friend, Mr. Mustapha Nasser. But Gibran Tueini was assassinated and Hezbollah was stunned by the holding of an extraordianry Cabinet session, solely entitled the international tribunal and the expansion of the investigation commission's work or the formation of another commission.
Hajj Hussein and PM Ali Hassan Khalil from "Amal" went to Riyadh and spent 48 hours engaging in a non-stop dialogue with MP Saad Hariri over a document that he changed and amended by consulting his allies over the phone.
The initial request of "Amal" and "Hezbollah" was for the Lebanese government to send a letter to the Security Council stating that the issue of the resistance's arms is a Lebanese internal affair and the resistance is not a militia. Its mission is to defend Lebanon, liberate the rest of its territory, and release the prisoners and detainees. However, MP Hariri requested to personally handle this matter and settle for the Cabinet decision, to be announced by the Minister of Information. However, this did not happen.
Hajj Hussein said that the Shiite tandem requested the expression "the resistance's arms are for Lebanon's defense." However, brother Saad called asking to settle for what was mentioned in the statement of the Lebanese cabinet, i.e. "the Lebanese resistance's arms was to complete the liberation of the rest of the territory." However, MP Saad Hariri then asked to omit this expression and replace it with "the liberation of Shebaa farms and Kfarchouba hills." In an interview with MP Saad Hariri, published by "Al Safir" newspaper, colleague Faysal Selman underlined this expression quoted from the second text of the agreement which is "the resistance is not a militia, and its arms are exclusively dedicated to complete the liberation of Shebaa farms and release the prisoners." The key word here is "exclusively".
There was also another expression about the endeavor of the Lebanese government to resume the national dialogue within the Cabinet and with the political forces not represented therein. MP Saad Hariri accepted and Hajj Hussein and MP Hassan Khalil returned to Lebanon. They went to the Serail to submit the agreement. However, MP Saad Hariri called them prior to their meeting with the PM and asked them to omit the expression "the political forces not represented therein." They agreed to do so.
Nonetheless, PM Siniora rejected the agreement and said that he is a man of institutions and needs to consult the members of his Cabinet.
"Hezbollah" blames the PM for thwarting an agreement approved by the head of the parliamentary majority. In fact, it blames MP Walid Jumblatt even more than PM Siniora since he seems to have decided to resume his confrontation with the Syrian regime till the end. His last plea to overthrow the regime breaks off the dialogue track. However, the only practical option is dialogue, just as aging is better than the other option, the Lebanese-Lebanese dialogue is better than the other option.