LCCC ENGLISH NEWS BULLETIN
December 4/06

Bible Reading For the Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 21,25-28.34-36.
There will be signs in the sun, the moon, and the stars, and on earth nations will be in dismay, perplexed by the roaring of the sea and the waves. People will die of fright in anticipation of what is coming upon the world, for the powers of the heavens will be shaken. And then they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. But when these signs begin to happen, stand erect and raise your heads because your redemption is at hand." Beware that your hearts do not become drowsy from carousing and drunkenness and the anxieties of daily life, and that day catch you by surprise  like a trap. For that day will assault everyone who lives on the face of the earth. Be vigilant at all times and pray that you have the strength to escape the tribulations that are imminent and to stand before the Son of Man."

Free Opinions & Studies of the Day
Israel will pay price. By: Prof. Eyal Zisser Ynetnews  04.12.06
Street confrontations and constitutional remedies in the Arab realm-Daily Star 04.12.06
The Lebanese Co-Existence. By: Mohamed Ashab Al-Hayat - 04/12/06
Coups by the Opposition and the Majority.By: Abdullah Iskandar Al-Hayat -04/12/06
Iraq & Lebanon, Iran & Syria: What is Next?By: Turki al-Hamad -Asharq Alawsat 04/12/06
 

Latest New from the Daily Star for December 4/06
Pro-government rallies start to crop up outside capital
Moussa undertakes push to defuse 'serious escalation'
Sfeir sounds alarm as tensions threaten to spiral out of control
Israel withdraws from Lebanese side of Ghajar
Siniora vows to stay on despite mounting pressure
At least 1 killed as violence breaks out across Beirut
'The truth about Qana must be revealed' - Amnesty chief
Foreign governments voice support for Siniora Cabinet
UN secretary general's update to the Security Council on Resolution 1701 .
Can Lebanon survive yet another blow?
Musical comedy, both timeless and timely
Latest New from miscellaneous sources for December 4/06
Lebanon is collateral damage-Gulf News
The tragedy of Lebanon-Bangkok Post -
Losing Lebanon-AINA
Hezbollah tests the limits of US power-Gulf Times
No sign of solution to Lebanon protests deadlock-Euronews.net
Lebanon again at the brink-Christian Science Monitor
Lebanese government defiant as protests continue-Reuters.uk
'Don't be scared' - Seniora defies Lebanese opposition-Monsters and Critics.com
Saniora Vows to Stay on Despite Hizbullah-Led Protest to Overthrow Him-Naharnet
Syria Supports Hizbullah-Led Protest to Topple Saniora-Naharnet
Israel Nervously Eyes Political Situation in Lebanon-Naharnet
Mubarak Criticizes 'Unwise' Protests, Fears Broadening of Lebanon Crisis-Naarnet
Hariri: Government Will Stay-Naharnet
Britain Urges Rival Politicians to Return to Dialogue Table-Naharnet
Marathon Runners Take to the Streets of Beirut Despite Sit-in-Naharnet
Lebanon govt defiant, protesters keep up pressure-Reuters
Europe expresses support for independent Lebanon-Euronews.net - Lyon,France
UN Acknowledges 'Deficiencies' In Lebanon Arms Embargo-All Headline News - USA
Sectarian divide plagues Lebanon-Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Lebanon's sovereignty must be recognised, says German FM-Gulf News - Dubai,United Arab Emirates
Ministers Discuss Threat of Hizbullah Takeover in Lebanon-Arutz Sheva - Israel
Egypt fears Lebanon battlefield if protests continue-Reuters
Cabinet shuns pro-Syria groups' call to quit-Washington Times
A test of strength in Lebanon-Ha'aretz
Hezbollah's Provocation-Washington Post
Lebanon's showdown set for lengthy battle of wills-Reuters
Hezbollah Loyalists Camp Out in Beirut-CBS News
Hezbollah backers rally to overthrow government-Massillon Independent
Hezbollah Demonstrators Remain in Beirut-The Conservative Voice
French Socialist candidate Royal condemns Hezbollah lawmaker' ...International Herald Tribune
A blood-drenched political legacy-Gulf News - Dubai,United Arab Emirates
Lebanese opposition continues protest against Siniora-Ynetnews
Mideast Expert: Lebanon Will Fall to Hizbullah-Arutz Sheva - Israel
Saudi Arabia Detains 136 Qaida Suspects-Naharnet
 

HizbAllah's Offensive in Lebanon: Day Two
By Walid Phares
December 3, 2006
In its second day, HizbAllah’s offensive in Lebanon against the democratically elected Government has maintained pressures on various levels. Following are the main axis of activities:
HizbAllah’s deployment
By mid week end, several thousands of HizbAllah’s members, cadres and officers have settled inside downtown Beirut, surrounding the Prime Minister’s office. The militia erected dozens of tents in a military fashion, with 30 fighters in each tent. Sources from the Lebanese Army described the “deployment” of the tents as a bivouac-maneuvering of about three brigades, “clearly following the Iranian military code,” said the sources. By late Saturday evening early Sunday morning, the Lebanese Army was able to move a number of these tents to the sides opening a path to the Government building.
However, security sources noted that HizbAllah’s units are positioning themselves in several circles around the center of Beirut. There are no weapons apparent but according to observers, the “demonstrators” can be armed in less than three hours and “become” the equivalent of half a “division” in the downtown area and close to a division inside Sunni Beirut.
Sunni resistance begins
In the early hours of Saturday through the first hours of Sunday, several incidents took place between HizbAllah’s cells moving into several neighborhoods in mostly Sunni West Beirut, and between local Sunni youth. In most of these urban clashes, with clubs and stones, HizbAllah’s members withdrew to their quarters in downtown and the southern suburbs. Observers believe these incidents were a sort of testing on behalf of HizbAllah’s military command to assess the level of “popular resistance” against its stretching inside Muslim Beirut. It is to note that Sunni areas have been displaying more opposition to Nasrallah’s militia in more than one area. More noticeably in the Eastern Bekaa where entire villages such as Kamed al Lawz and surrounding areas have erupted in small demonstrations against the pro-Iranian coalition. Also in Tripoli, and despite the presence of some solid pro-Syrian Sunni influence, anti-HizbAllah manifestations are taking place.
Shiite moderates appear
Interestingly, more moderate Shiite voices are emerging against Nasrallah’s power and in support of the Lebanese Government and its supporters. In addition to the prominent Shiite Mufti of Tyre Ali al Amine, the spiritual leader of the Shiites in Jabal Amel, core of south Lebanon’s community, a newly formed “Free Shiite Coalition” led by the intrepid Sheikh Mohammed al Haj Hassan is calling on the Shiites to rejects the “orders by Ahmedinijad to wreck havoc in Lebanon.” In a strong speech aired worldwide on internet Saturday night, Sheikh called on the international community to assist the Lebanese people against the terror threat, HizbAllah. This is the boldest call by a Shiia cleric against Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Sunni spiritual leaders have already voiced their opposition to the “Syro-Iranian aggression” against the Government. Lebanon’s national Mufti Mohammed Rashid Qabbani extended his support to the Cedars Revolution backed Seniora Government yesterday and insisted on praying inside the Prime Minister’s office while HizbAllah was encircling the government building. On his part the Mufti of Mount Lebanon, Mohamed Ali al Juzu attacked Hassan Nasrallah accusing him of taking orders from Iran and targeting the independence of Lebanon.
Next HizbAllah’s moves
The latest information released by the Lebanese security sources and published in the Arab press on Sunday morning, and detailed by the Kuwaiti daily as Siyassa says HizbAllah was planning on shutting down Beirut airport, possibly its port and large segments of the basic public services such as electricity and water. A memo sent by Nasrallah to his supporters inside the security and police forces asked them to withdraw and join the ranks of the “movement against the Government.”
Media tilting noted
On the media level, the campaign unleashed by HizbAllah widened on al Manar TV and was supported by Syria’s press and audiovisual as well as Iran’s. Al Jazeera is backing the crumbling of the Lebanese Government by “projecting” that the cabinet will fall, despite indicators that the popular majority in Lebanon backs it. But the most interesting development is the gradual editorial twist in most of the news agencies distributing information around the world indirectly towards HizbAllah. In fact, the choice of words in the reports issued by Reuters, AP and UPI indicates that they are increasingly portraying the HizbAllah’s campaign as “an opposition movement against a Government refusing to accept its demands.” These mother ships of international media, that feeds thousands of newspapers and audiovisual networks around the world, have for example pushed the number of the demonstrators as “close to 800,000 persons,” or as they put it “one quarter of Lebanon’s population.” While in reality, researchers in Lebanon, measuring the space these demonstrations took place in, cannot absorb more than 250,000 persons. A quarter of a million people is a large number but compared to the 1.5 million people gathered by the Cedars Revolution indicates clearly to social demographers, that HizbAllah, with the support of Syria, Iran, the radical Palestinians, cannot muster a popular support greater than one sixth of the majority. But many sectors in the international media are tilting towards producing pro-HizbAllah’s trends. A reporter for Time wrote that “what he saw was a reverse of the Cedars Revolution,” using words uttered by the organizers of the pro-Iranian move. “It is not so difficult to understand,” said a human rights activist in Beirut, “HizbAllah has done a great job in influencing many correspondents on the ground. With Iranian logistics, its operatives can provide all what a journalist can dream of. Unfortunately also,” said the NGO observer, “many HizbAllah media cadres have found their way into being recruited by some media. You wouldn’t believe where these infiltrations have reached,” he said. Bloggers in Beirut have begun to monitor the HizbAllah’s penetration of international media as the reporting has been drifting towards promoting the pro-Iranian militia.
Lebanese facing alone
As the third day of the offensive begins, HizbAllah and its allies are bracing for bolder moves to take over the Lebanese Government. Out of Egypt, President Mubarak warned from more dramatic steps HizbAllah would take, leading to a blood shed. In New York, US ambassador Bolton warned from a Terror war against Lebanon. And in Beirut, the unarmed civil society of the country fears the worse: Being left with a democratically elected cabinet they are proud of, they feel they are facing, alone, the world’s most dangerous Terror forces: the combined power of Ahmedinijad, Assad and Nasrallah
****
Dr Walid Phares is a Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of Future Jihad. He was one of the architects of UNSCR 1559. Phares@walidphares.com

'Don't be scared' - Seniora defies Lebanese opposition
Nov 30, 2006, 22:59 GMT
Beirut - Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora defied his pro-Syrian opponents Thursday, calling on all Lebanese in a television address 'not to be scared and not to be desperate.' As Beirut braced for potentially dramatic demonstrations Friday by Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian groups confronting his government, he said: 'We are fighting for our democracy and freedom and we will continue to fight for it.'
He added: 'We will not be afraid of threats and the difficulties we will face.' Referring to last summer's 33-day conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, he said: 'The war by Israel was imposed on us. We will not allow any coup against democracy...we are a legal government.'
Seniora said his govenrment would fight against the 'return of the tutelage' - an apparent reference to the end of Syria's military and political domination of Lebanon whyich ended in April 2005. Seniora stressed that the only way to topple his government would be via parliament - in which his bloc has a majority.
The premier said his government was determined to protect the opposition's right to 'peaceful' demonstrations - 'but we will not accept any security breach or any aggression on provate or public property.' Shortly after Seniora finnished his speech, fireworks lit the Sunni Moslem side of the capital, set off by followers of his ally Saad Hariri, who heads the majority in the Lebanese parliament. Hariri is the son of former premier Rafik Hariri who was assassinated on 14 February 2005, and of whom Seniora was the faithful right-hand man in both business and politics.
Lebanon's pro-Syrian opposition bloc earlier announced that street demonstrations would be held Friday with the aim of bringing down Seniora's anti-Syrian majority government. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Shiite movement Hezbollah, in a televised address called for mass participation in the 'peaceful, democratic' demonstration to change what he described an 'incapable government.'
He called for the formation of a national unity government to include all of the country's disparate political elements. 'All negotiations have failed to form such a government so we decided to go the streets,' Nasrallah said, adding that the demonstration would take the form of an 'open-ended' sit-in in downtown Beirut.
His comments were greeted with shots fired in the air from several neighbourhoods in the capital. Sources with the Lebanese opposition told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa that Friday's demonstration would start at 3 p.m. (1300 GMT).
Sources close to the Lebanese anti-Syrian majority meanwhile told dpa that Lebanon's Security Council, which groups the defence and interior ministers as well as the commander in chief of the Lebanese army, were meeting to prepare for the demonstration. Thousands of soldiers and police have been deployed near the government offices and parliament in downtown Beirut, scene of Lebanon's largest protests after the assassination of Rafik Hariri. The sources expected the demonstration to be massive because 'Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies will gather as much people as they can.'
Many Lebanese fear that large-scale protests could lead to street violence, deepening Lebanon's current political crisis and pushing the country towards chaos amid escalating sectarian tension. Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh made it clear that the pro-Western government had no intention to bow to pressures from the pro-Syrian camp. 'The government will not give in. It rests on a comfortable majority in parliament,' said Hamadeh. The minister criticised pro- Syrian President Emile Lahoud, who had called on public sector employees 'not to listen any more to the orders of the government of Seniora.'
'Neither the illegitimate president kept in power by Syria nor the Hezbollah are going to topple us,' Hamadeh said.
Pro-Damascus allies which include Hezbollah, its ally Amal and supporters of the Christian hardliner General Michel Aoun have sought to destabilise the Seniora government, with street protests seen as the trump card against the administration after the failure of efforts to broker a political solution.
Hezbollah, backed by the pro-Damascus Lahoud, had earlier declared the Seniora government unconstitutional since six of its members, including five Shiites, had resigned. Lebanon has been riven by division between the pro- and anti- Syrian blocs, arising in part from the Hariri killing as well as subsequent assassinations, including the slaying last week of industry minister Pierre Gemayel. The anti-Syrian government accuses Syria and its agents in Lebanon of having been behind the killings, and of attempting to block the formation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri case. There are fears the crisis could deteriorate into sectarian strife between Muslims, as most of the pro-Syrians are Shiites and the anti- Syrian majority is headed by Sunni Muslim Saad Hariri, son of the slain former premier. Meanwhile the head of the largest Christian community in Lebanon Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir said Thursday that street demonstrations will not solve the political crisis in the country and instead will complicate it. 'Going to the streets is no solution. Solving the problems will be through negotiations and discussions,' Sfeir told a crowd of Christian women who lost their sons in the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war or in recent political assassinations. 'Enough ... enough ... Lebanon is for all the Lebanese no matter what their sects are. There are some Lebanese who are selling Lebanon to other countries and they are now considered merchandise in the hands of others,' Sfeir said.
© 2006 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Saniora Vows to Stay on Despite Hizbullah-Led Protest to Overthrow Him
Prime Minister Fouad Saniora vowed Sunday to remain in his post, unshaken by the thousands-strong predominantly Hizbullah protestors camping outside government headquarters to overthrow him. "Protest is no solution," Saniora told reporters after he took part in prayers for assassinated Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel inside the Grand Serail in downtown Beirut. "I am going to stay as long as I am prime minister by the will of the majority," he said, adding that "We have to have hope …We don't know how long it (the protest) will last."Near the Serail, thousands of opposition protesters led by the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hizbullah carried an open-ended rally into a third day Sunday in a bid to topple Saniora's government and form a national unity cabinet, instead, so as to have veto power over decisions. Outspoken Druze leader Walid Jumblat, who also attended the mass, accused Hizbullah of being "a state within a state" and alleged the group possessed "tens of thousands of weapons."
Jumblat reiterated the government's call for a return to talks over Lebanon's political deadlock.
"We will be patient. When they are convinced there is no other way, when they make up their mind that only dialogue can lead to a breakthrough, we will be ready for talks," he said. The mass was held inside the Grand Serail, the seat of government where Saniora and nearly a dozen ministers have been residing since Gemayel's killing Nov.21.
The service was broadcast live on pro-government Future TV and state television, and was attended by Saniora, several cabinet ministers and deputies from the anti-Syrian parliament majority and members of Gemayel's family. Meanwhile, security sources told Naharnet that one of five roads leading to Saniora's workplace remained blocked by protestors for a second day Sunday as the rally continued into the night with mainly Shiite demonstrators waving Lebanese flags to the tune of Hizbullah war hymns. "There is no change in the sit-in map at all," one security officer told Naharnet.
The protests began at 3 p.m. Friday, the zero-hour set by Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for the beginning of an open-ended sit-in demanding to overthrow Saniora's government and the formation of a national unity cabinet, instead. An Nahar said Lebanon's security apparatus documented Hizbullah news media members photographing the Grand Serail quarters, particularly its accesses and exits, while other members were setting up additional tents and water tanks on the mid-road leading to Saniora's workplace. Organizers from the opposition, which comprises predominantly pro-Syrian factions as well as the Free Patriotic Movement of retired army general Michel Aoun, on Friday set up a chain of tents and makeshift toilets to accommodate the protestors.
The opposition also planned a speech rally Saturday evening at the sit-in site in Riad Solh Square, with speakers reiterating calls for Saniora to step down.
However, MP Hussein Haj Hassan, who represents Hizbullah in parliament, warned against "stepped up actions unless the Serail occupiers resign," in reference to Saniora and his cabinet ministers.
In the wake of the unyielding sit-in which has paralyzed the usually jam-packed city center, An Nahar said Sunday that downtown bosses were in the process of suing the "forces which caused the stoppage of our businesses," and will demand compensation. Parliament's majority leader Saad Hariri has vowed "the Saniora government will not fall because of pressure from the street." The government has received strong public backing from Western and some Arab states, and Arab League chief Amr Mussa was set to hold talks in Beirut on Sunday to offer his services as a mediator between the two sides.
Moussa said in a statement that Lebanon is in a critical period and "what is important now is to protect the Lebanese national unity."
British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett held talks with Saniora to express her support for his government.
"We call on all parties to work together for the good of Lebanon, and to return to dialogue," she said. "I believe the world community supports the constitutional government." German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier also arrived in Lebanon on Saturday for talks with Saniora and Berri.
"My presence is a gesture of support for Lebanon's independence in the management of its affairs without foreign intervention," Steinmeier said.
Saniora appealed Saturday for renewed talks with the opposition over a deadlock which threatens to block the government's legislative program, including its centerpiece plans for an international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 murder of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri.
Only Berri, whose supporters joined the opposition protest, has the authority to present draft legislation to parliament.
"Taking to the streets will not lead us anywhere ... There is just one way to solve our problems and that is to sit behind a table to discuss all our differences," Saniora said. "Other than that it is a waste of time, waste of resources and waste of opportunities." "I appeal to Mr. Berri to call for a resumption of dialogue," he said. As he spoke, shouts of "Saniora out!" occasionally rose from the protesters. Beirut, 03 Dec 06, 16:17

Syria Supports Hizbullah-Led Protest to Topple Saniora
Syria's Deputy Foreign Minsiter Faisal Mekdad on Sunday hailed the Hizbullah-led opposition campaign to bring down Prime Minister Fouad Saniora.
"Syria supports the Lebanese people and its national forces who confronted the Israeli aggression with heroism," Mekdad said, in the first official Syrian reaction to the protests which were launched on Friday.
He war referring to Hizbullah fighters who fought a war with Israeli forces in Lebanon this summer, in which more than 1,200 mainly Lebanese civilians were killed. Mekdad was quoted by the government daily Tishrin as stressing "the importance of respecting the choice of the Lebanese people to establish a government of national unity as demanded by the mass demonstrations" in downtown Beirut.
The Syrian press also threw its weight behind the protests. "The sit-in will continue until the birth of a New Lebanon," read the main headline in Al-Baath, the ruling party's daily. Tishrin said "the team which holds power in Lebanon is falsifying the truth... by pretending there is a dispute over the international tribunal" to try suspects in the murder of ex-premier Rafik Hariri. Lebanon's political rift deepened Sunday as the opposition sit-in entered its third day, with the anti-Syrian government Prime Minister Fouad Saniora vowing to resist calls to resign. The open-ended rally aims to bring down Saniora's government, which was deserted by six pro-Syrian ministers last month over a cabinet decision to meet for the approval to create a Special International Tribunal for Lebanon to try Hariri's killers. The Saniora government has received strong public backing from Western and some Arab states, while Israel said on Sunday it was following the events in Lebanon "with the utmost attention". The opposition is demanding a greater say in the government, which it charges has been riding roughshod over the power-sharing arrangements in force since Lebanon's devastating 1975-1990 civil war. But the anti-Damascus camp says the opposition demands are a ploy at the behest of their Syrian sponsors to avoid the formation of the tribunal to try suspects in the February 2005 murder of Hariri.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 03 Dec 06, 16:45

Marathon Runners Take to the Streets of Beirut Despite Sit-in
Runners took to the streets of Beirut amid high security Sunday for Lebanon's annual marathon, which went ahead despite an open-ended sit-in led by Hizbullah.
Streets were lined with gun-toting soldiers and armored vehicles as the Lebanese army and police deployed en masse to assure security for the event.
The marathon, with the slogan "Run For Lebanon, Run For Life," kicked off under a flurry of balloons and some runners wearing Red Cross T-shirts carried a sign that read "Peace." Despite the high security, a festive atmosphere prevailed, with some joggers running hand-in-hand with children along the route and street performers seen exchanging banter with army soldiers. More than 20,000 people had entered either the marathon or the accompanying 10 kilometer event, which was to take place on November 26 but was postponed after the assassination of anti-Syrian Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel five days earlier.
Marathon director Mark Dickinson said Saturday the route of the course had been "slightly modified" due to the opposition protest.(AFP) Beirut, 03 Dec 06, 12

Israel Nervously Eyes Political Situation in Lebanon
Israel is keeping a close watch of the political situation in Beirut as the Hizbullah-led campaign to topple the government will have "direct consequences" for the Jewish state, a senior official in Jerusalem said Sunday. "The Israeli government is following unfolding events in Lebanon with the utmost attention," a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Agence France Presse. The official said the situation in Beirut, where Hizbullah and its allies are trying to bring down Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government, would be discussed at an afternoon meeting of the security cabinet.
Trade Minister Eli Yishai, a leader of the ultra-orthodox Jewish party Shas and member of Israel's security cabinet, told AFP that Israel should be prepared for all possibilities. "What is going on in Lebanon forces us to prepare even for the possibility of a coup," Yishai said. "We must prepare for any scenario and must not stay indifferent." Israeli public radio, meanwhile, reported that the Jewish State was following the situation in Lebanon "with concern."
A former director of Israeli military intelligence, Aharan Zeevi Farkash, warned that the resignation of the Lebanese government "would do nothing but increase the likelihood of war next summer." But "Israel should not intervene in the political crisis consuming Beirut," Farkash told army radio.
The online edition of Haaretz daily reported Sunday that a "Hizbullah takeover (of the Lebanese government) would turn the country into what an Israeli government source termed 'the first Arab state to become an Iranian protectorate'."
It said senior Israeli officials are raising several proposals aimed at strengthening Saniora. "One possibility under discussion is urging the European Union to recognize the disputed Shabaa Farms region as Lebanese territory," according to Haaretz. "Another possibility is for Jerusalem to reach an agreement with Saniora on an Israeli evacuation of the divided village of Ghajar and its transfer to U.N. control until a final agreement on its status is reached," Haaretz said.
It said Israeli defense officials are worried that even if Saniora is not toppled, the current situation in the country "will weaken the security arrangements in southern Lebanon that were put in place" after end of the Israel-Hizbullah war on August 14.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 03 Dec 06, 11:43

Britain Urges Rival Politicians to Return to Dialogue Table
Visiting British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett on Saturday expressed her support for Premier Fouad Saniora and called on Lebanon's feuding factions to return to dialogue. "I reiterated the United Kingdom's support for Lebanon and to Prime Minister Saniora," Beckett said in a statement.
"We call on all parties to work together for the good of Lebanon, and to return to dialogue," she said.
Beckett told journalists after meeting Saniora at the Grand Serail that "obviously the (Lebanese) government is facing difficulties."
"It has showed considerable courage and steadfastness in the face of very serious obstacles," she said at a joint news conference with Interim Foreign Minister Tarek Mitri. "This is a government elected by the people of Lebanon and which has the constitutional authority an election gives it," she said, adding that she wanted to see Lebanon "return to being (a) potent and independent democracy."
Beckett's visit comes amid a deep political crisis which prompted the opposition, led by Hizbullah, to hold an open ended sit-in calling on the Saniora government to resign. Beckett also met with Speaker Nabih Berri and visited British deminers in southern Lebanon.
On arrival in Lebanon late Friday, Beckett visited former president Amine Gemayel to present her condolences over the November 21 murder of his son Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel. In September, British Prime Minister Tony Blair made his first visit to Lebanon and pledged to help in rebuilding the devastated country following the 34-day July-August war between Israel and Hizbullah. Beckett reiterated Britain's backing for the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 which put an end to the summer war. "We made it clear that we want to see an end to (Israeli) overflights (of Lebanon), we want to see 1701 implemented. We want to see the government of Lebanon the only armed authority on its sovereign territory." Resolution 1701 called for an end to Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and for the disarming of all militias in Lebanon.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 02 Dec 06, 17:15

Arabs may one day miss George W. Bush"
by Michael Rubin-The Daily Star (Beirut)
December 1, 2006
The Middle East cheered the Republican defeat in the recent American congressional elections. The official Syrian daily Al-Baath labeled the elections a "painful blow," while the Saudi daily Al-Watan called for a "wise" policy from Washington "to bridge the gulf in confidence between the United States and the regional peoples and governments." The Iranian press gloated, while the Turkish Islamist daily Yeni Aafak argued that the election rebuke was "punishment for Bush's neocon policies." Such reactions do not surprise. President George W. Bush's policies have not been easy for many in the Middle East to digest.
Different segments of Arab societies dislike Bush for different reasons. Many Arabs outside government believe Bush tilts too much toward Israel. Lebanese cite with particular disdain Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's characterization of this summer's violence as "birth pangs of a new Middle East." Others see the US veto last November 11 of a United Nations Security Council Resolution condemning Israel for its military operations in the Gaza Strip as abdication of Washington's role as an honest broker. They accept Palestinian UN observer Riyad Mansour's characterization of the veto as evidence that Washington backs Israel as it "commits crimes and acts of outright aggression with impunity."
That US policy tilts toward Israel has nothing to do with Bush or any single party. While Arab commentators may find comfort in blaming a Jewish lobby, the real reason is more straightforward. To Americans, Israel is a democracy and, for decades, has been a consistent ally. Throughout the 1950s and early 1960s, administrations favored Arab states for the practical reason that Arabs outnumbered Israelis and had oil; it was in US interests to seek partnership in the Arab world. Hence, Washington sided with Cairo against Tel Aviv in the 1956 Suez crisis, handing Egyptian President Gamal Abdel-Nasser his greatest victory. But while Arab states attacked the US, Israel stood by it. Any comparison of UN votes - especially on issues having nothing to do with the Middle East - underscores this pattern.
Bush is not anti-Arab, though. He went farther than any predecessor to support Palestinian statehood when, on June 24, 2002, he declared: "It is untenable for Palestinians to live in squalor and occupation ... My vision is two states, living side by side in peace and security." Certain Palestinian groups, often with foreign support, squandered their opportunity by re-embracing violence. Bush's belief in liberty extended beyond the Palestinians, though. While his father's advisers sacrificed Lebanese freedom for the stability of the Syrian military presence until 2005, Bush sought actual Lebanese independence.
Autocrats across the region distrust Bush for entirely different reasons. To leaders in Cairo, Damascus, Tehran and Riyadh, the Palestinian cause is little more than a useful rhetorical tool to distract their own citizens from failures closer to home. These leaders do not blame Bush for his policies toward the Arab-Israeli conflict, but rather dislike him for his rhetoric of democratization and reform.
The US occupation of Iraq may not be popular anywhere in the Arab world, but scenes of Iraqis celebrating Saddam Hussein's downfall infused Arab regimes with particular unease. Many Arab leaders surround themselves with sycophants. Delegates at Egypt's National Democratic Party conference in September, for example, repeatedly interrupted President Hosni Mubarak's speech to inform him of their admiration for him and the love of ordinary Egyptians. But, outside the posh convention center, ordinary Egyptians cursed their president for corruption, stagnation and his desire for a royal succession. Arab leaders may try to convince themselves that such adoration in sincere, but their reliance upon multiple security services signals their recognition of reality.
White House pressure for reform antagonized these leaders, as the whining nature of editorials in state-run newspapers demonstrated. Previous US administrations, both Democrat and Republican, spoke of human rights, democracy and transparency, but did not push the issue. Bush did. Mubarak did not expect Washington to withhold $134 million in aid to win Egyptian democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim's release. Mubarak's subsequent acquiescence to allow contested elections was the result, in part, of Western pressure.
Bush's reform push was as unpopular among the US foreign policy establishment as it was in Arab capitals. Many "realists" criticized the White House for pressuring such long-standing allies. But Bush, at least initially, refused to accept that the only choice in the Middle East was between the rule of autocrats and theocrats. Against the advice of many career diplomats, he directed the State Department to help build a platform upon which liberals and reformers could thrive.
Bush's initial success is best seen in juxtaposition to his subsequent failure. As critics condemned the effectiveness of his push toward reform and questioned the wisdom of pressuring allies, leaders in Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen began de-prioritizing democratization, closing newspapers, arresting opposition leaders, torturing bloggers, cancelling elections and abandoning pledges to retire from office. Because of this, many Arabs may come to regret their hostility toward Bush and his policies.
As the realists again rise triumphant, stability will trump reform. The same figures who Bush now embraces backed Syria in Lebanon, and ensured Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's grip on power after ordinary Iraqis heeded President George H.W. Bush's February 15, 1991, call for "the Iraqi people [to] take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein the dictator to step aside." These realists did not blanch as Saddam massacred tens of thousands of civilians.
New policies may revive old dictatorships. European governments find it easier to trade with the Revolutionary Guards-operated companies in Iran than press for economic opportunities for ordinary Iranians. Former US ambassadors to countries like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey would rather cash in on their connections to ruling parties than see old faces disappear upon the whim of the electorate.
Nor will Arab civil society organizations be able to rely on their "progressive" counterparts in the West to defend liberalism and reform. Hatred of Bush trumps declared principles. Because Bush made democratization and reform the centerpiece of his Middle East strategy, many Western progressives dismiss them as priorities or even as desirable. After all, in progressive rhetoric how can Bush be both an idiot and correct?
Instead of democracy, many progressives have come to romanticize "resistance." They have become attracted to the same rhetorical motifs projected by liberation movements of a generation past and Islamists today. Embrace of multiculturalism has morphed into a cultural relativism that justifies oppression in the name of culture.
The majority of Arab civil society may celebrate Bush's election rebuke and welcome the end of the Bush years but, as anger fades and Washington re-embraces realism, Arab reformers from Rabat to Riyadh may find they have missed their best opportunity, while dictators and theocrats seize theirs.
***Michael Rubin, editor of the Middle East Quarterly, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

Iraq & Lebanon, Iran & Syria: What is Next?
03/12/2006
Turki al-Hamad
Acts of violence have become a daily occurrence in Iraq as hear about massacres carried out by one party against another. Violence is the same regardless of the different parties involved: Sunnis against Shia, Shia against Sunnis, Kurds against Arabs and Arabs against Kurds, yet everyone raises slogans bearing the interest of the country and nation as the bloodshed and destruction continues. In Lebanon there is continuous and escalating tension between political parties, each with its own agenda, to the point that we have reached a deadlock, the outcome of which only God knows whether it will be a new civil war, conflict between foreign powers on Lebanese soil or a return to the pre-Taif Accords situation and discussion of cantons. As long as national accord is absent and as long as there are powers that have interests in preserving the social or political chaos in Lebanon, all possibilities are open.
Outside Lebanon and Iraq, there are regional powers that fuel situations as they begin to subside, as after all, their stability depends on the instability of others. Iran wants to join the superpowers club by developing nuclear energy; however, the club is concerned about an alliance between an antagonistic ideology and nuclear energy that can annihilate mankind. The issue is not about one country or another having nuclear energy but is more concerned with who possesses such energy and can actually use it in regional or international wars; hence the fear of Iran's neighbors. Iran can only maintain its nuclear pursuits in a state of regional instability, particularly instability in its neighboring countries. Therefore, it becomes clear that the Iranian interest lies in the continuation of political chaos whether in Iraq or Lebanon, and that there is no objection to the destabilizing of other countries.
Syria finds itself in a state of international and regional isolation as it has been subjected to accusations over the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik al Hariri and other Lebanese figures; and with the approval of the international tribunal, the Syrian regime in particular finds itself closer to danger that can only be avoided by increasing political confusion and chaos in the concerned country, that is Lebanon, than in any other state. The political breakdown in Lebanon, and the potential consequences that cannot be predicted, is the last possible chance for the Syrian regime to save itself. Moreover, any stability in Iraq would threaten the incumbent regime in Syria, which is similar, or rather identical, to the former regime of Iraq. The interest of Syria, or rather of the interest of the political regime in Syria, is best served by the continuation of the current Iraqi situation as it creates an absorbent buffer for it, in the sense that such chaos and instability diminishes pressure on the regime. The case is the same in Lebanon. The instability in both Lebanon and Iraq is the winning playing card that allows Iran to maneuver and evade and Syria to attempt to sustain the regime. Therefore, the Iraqi and Lebanese issues are a matter of life or death for both parties.
This quick analysis of circumstances in the region may be known to those who seek an analysis that is void of personal goals and interests and political ideology. However, it should always be taken into account because the questions it raises are of utmost importance as we look at the future of this region and the future of its people. For instance, where will the conflict in Iraq lead to? The maintaining of this violent conflict will not end with the withdrawal of US forces, for example, nor will it end with the monopolization of authority by one group or another. Moreover, it will not end by the Iranian domination of Iraq. Iraq is a country that is made up of various ethnicities and sects; it has always been like that and always will be, and no one group, however powerful and long-lasting, will be able to subdue all other groups. Disregarding this fact will only lead Iraq to continuous violence until every last Iraqi is affected or until the unwanted partition has taken place. Perhaps the persistence of violent and horrific acts or partition serves one foreign party or another; however, this will not serve the interests of the Iraqis themselves, regardless of the instant gains of this or that party. The same applies to Lebanon, of which the legitimacy of its existence is based on its multiple ethnicities and sects, and any attempt to overlook or omit this fact equates disregarding the Lebanese legitimacy, therefore, obliterating Lebanon. In that country today, there are those who are fuelling political conflict out of sectarian and regional interests. This may serve a foreign party and may serve the interests of individual groups, but Lebanon will ultimately be the loser because once pluralistic Lebanon ceases to exist, everybody will eventually cease to exist.
Is it that the Iraqis and Lebanese – long experienced with politics as they are – are not aware of such matters? This is not the case inasmuch as the external observer, especially when the interest of the region as a whole is taken into account, has a more accurate vision. Those practicing politics and involved in its inferno are often blinded by a short-lived interests that they seek to gain, or by a political ideology that captures their minds from within, or by certain sectarianism that hinders sound vision. Any state, despite its policies or doctrines, is ultimately concerned with its own interests, regardless of any bright slogans that are raised. The case should be the same for Iraq and Lebanon if they are to continue to exist. In light of the violence in Iraq, and in light of this tension and escalation in Lebanon, the warlords of both countries should ask themselves one question that may be the key to everything; what is next? It is a simple question, the answer to which however is the answer to everything.
**Turki al-Hamad is a distinguished Saudi-Arabian political analyst, journalist, and novelist. Al-Hamad was educated in Saudi Arabia and the United States, where he obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Southern California, later returning to Riyadh to teach political science. He retired in 1995 to take up writing full-time.

The Lebanese Co-Existence
Mohamed Ashab Al-Hayat - 03/12/06//
Mental power alone can rescue Lebanon from the risks of fragmentation among the sects and currents. It is more logical to consider what is happening as political disputes liable to bring all parties to the negotiation table. In fact, wars, with all their horror, end with negotiations. No matter how much the conflicting parties blame one another, the desire to repeat previous cases of governments toppled by mobilizing the population may turn into a trend that will take the crisis back to the very beginning, every time political disputes occur. However, it is difficult to imagine how Lebanon can absorb the regional crises striking the core of its stability.
In a crisis like the one that Lebanon is living, there is no need to sink the country into regional and international polarizations, resulting from its position on the map of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This, in turn, imposes on the Lebanese people, the protagonists of this cause, more dangers, and they will suffer the consequences. Strengthening the State and reinforcing its influence is the natural way to achieve a kind of co-existence that can firmly face foreign dictations that have come as a result of the country's weakness.
So far, the Lebanese people have acted in a civilized manner in proposing the demands that are relevant for both the social classes and the sects, although they do not seem to be final goals. There are some data regarding the country's makeup that cannot be cancelled simply by hinting at the common apprehension. Additionally, some feelings are trying to transcend the national reconciliation framework, which is viewed as a red line. Nevertheless, methods can reveal intentions, even when the insurmountable limit is set. Does the formation of a national unity government require all the efforts being made, regardless of whether they are appropriate or not, to recognize that Lebanon needs a government that will bring its people together and not separate them? Has the national dialogue, which has been called for several times, failed to bring the parties to accept reconciliation and harmony, which are considered the cornerstone for the construction of Lebanon, as long as there is no arrangement to make it fail?
Imaginations about Lebanon's future, no matter how different and discrepant they are, can always be discussed. The only thing that remains totally prohibited is to strike the components of the Lebanese unity that are linked with the legitimacy of the Taïf Agreement. What also must be protected is the will to get rid of any tendency to harm the independence of the Lebanese decision-making process. There are some paradoxes, however: during the Israeli war, the Lebanese people resisted by disrupting Israel's operations aimed at one group and by dealing with this war as if the target were the whole of Lebanon as a State, legitimacy, institution and harmony. Now, however, they seem less cautious in assimilating the repercussions of this conflict. It may be understood that victory, based on the principle of resistance, must be managed in the fields of peace and reconstruction. What is not understood is that not everyone is taking part in administering the post-war stage. For its part, war will continue to exercise its influence as an indicator in the Lebanese arena until an agreement is reached over the beginning of what has so far been postponed; that is, to repair what has been destroyed by the war. It is for sure that this is not a building that can be reconstructed only by men; these are not prisoners that can be redeemed through negotiations; these are not weapons that can be re-obtained only through funds and grants. On the contrary, it is a state of waiting for a truth that is threatening the essence of Lebanese co-existence, and that can evolve into the most destructive scenarios at the expense of State unity and the population, because of a continuous kind of stubbornness that serves non-Lebanese interests.
Resorting to the assassination of Lebanese personalities was the prelude for a strike at the symbolism of co-existence and for sedition. Despite their major injury, the Lebanese people have been able to preserve its symbolic values in order to keep the political system from collapsing, bearing in mind that the assassinations fundamentally targeted this system in order to spread chaos, and to make Lebanon surrender to feelings of revenge. There was no other alternative but to resort to the International Tribunal amid complications and circumstances related to this kind of vicious political crimes.
Although no party can openly declare it does not want truth to emerge, even if it were like the empty half of the glass, logic imposes a sequence of priorities. The war has not cancelled the persistence to seek the truth, and that is also the case for the conflict currently taking place. This will continue as long as the agreement is based on principles.
There are ways and means to adopt a national unity government, and this achievement seems to be closer by respecting democratic methodology. Disagreement is accepted and requested to enrich this methodology and not to go beyond it. Therefore, policy-makers in Lebanon will not damage the process of reaching a new agreement on priorities and principles, provided that mobilizing streets is not wished for other reasons that, as can be imagined, would get out of control. This would be similar to what happens with snake charmers, when the magic turns against the magician. However, the Lebanese people are more persistent in controlling their destiny. This is a civilized population, and not a robotic game that can be controlled from a distance

Coups by the Opposition and the Majority
Abdullah Iskandar Al-Hayat - 03/12/06//
Lebanon's Prime Minster Fouad Siniora commented during his reception of British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Beirut, that he was enduring a vicious campaign by Hezbollah and its allies.
However, Hezbollah did not show any reaction to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's reception of Blair's envoy that followed shortly after, while Damascus considered the British envoy's visit a breach of the sanctions imposed on it by the West.
Irrespective of the content or the outcome of Blair's talks in Beirut, or those of his envoy in Damascus, Hezbollah's stance could mean that a particular foreign relation embarked on by the Siniora government is essentially against the national interest of Lebanon; while at the same time, it is in Damascus's national interest to maintain an identical relation.
This does not mean that direct Syrian orders are behind all the Party's reactions and moves, but rather that any official Lebanese stance is suspicious, unless it is identical to what Syria considers is national interest.
This is the essential reason behind the Party's opposition: the legitimate government adheres to political stances that do not take Syrian requirements into consideration. It also adheres to international resolutions on interference in Lebanese affairs, and the ban of illegitimate weapons, and an international tribunal on the assassinations carried out in Lebanon.
Despite the Party's denial of being motivated by Syria's political demands, issues being challenged by Syria are at the center of all the Party's objections.
In this context, Hezbollah and its allies are talking about a coup carried out by the current Lebanese government, as past governments undergone by Hezbollah since its establishment were created in a form which Damascus deemed fit.
Due to Syria's confrontational situation with Israel, these governments had intentionally avoided interfering in Hezbollah's affairs, if not also to facilitate their strategies in Lebanon, until the Party became a separate entity from the State, with its own, independent finances, arsenal, security, media and economic apparatus.
Shortly after the Syrian withdrawal in the wake of the assassination of Hariri and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, parliamentary elections in Lebanon brought a new and different parliamentary majority to power for the first time since the end of the civil war.
This new majority caused an interruption in the political line of previous governments, and rebelled against the situation Lebanon had come to under these governments.
Hezbollah realized that such a coup would seek to revoke anything that was not in line with the State's resolve and legitimacy, which was the force behind its creation and the justification for Syrian meddling, and which include the proliferation of arms and the peace and war issue.
When this majority now accuses Hezbollah and its allies of planning a political coup, it essentially opposes the return of the situation to its status before the Syrian withdrawal and the reconnection of the Lebanese and Syrian stances toward the issues of confrontation with Israel and foreign affairs.
That is why Tony Blair did not make an official visit, but sent a secret envoy to Damascus to conduct serious talks, making a passing protocol visit to Beirut. The International Tribunal, therefore, is no longer an issue of concern, so long as decision-making regarding the Tribunal is not in the hands of those who would benefit from its reaching a verdict.
Hezbollah does not perceive Lebanon's relations with the outside world from the perspective of sovereignty, but as a means in its battle against the International Tribunal, which, despite all the justifications and criticism against Siniora's government, remains the main reason behind the resounding division with the government, with the hope of changing the balance of power in an attempt to reduce the damage expected from this tribunal to a minimum.
Hezbollah and its allies have taken to the street, and started a stay-in strike, demanding a change in the government's balance of power.
Regardless of the intentional confusion between the right to oppose and the means of producing a change of government in Lebanon, and the manifestations of trends trying to establish a tradition that defies constitutions and laws, as dangerous as all this is, the Hezbollah Party cannot pull out from the streets before achieving some gain to justify its decision.
At the same time, Siniora, along with the majority, does not seem to be willing to accept a change in the government's balance of power without first guaranteeing Lebanon's acceptance of the International Tribunal, and maybe even compromises on a number of issues, including the presidency of the Republic.
In its first two days, activity on the street has remained within the acceptable levels of peacefulness, and may continue as such.
A more serious threat, however, lies in the fact that these protests have begun to consolidate a sectarian division which everyone is trying to deny it exists. This denial will lead to the re-establishment of Syria's relations with this division, at the backdrop of the intensity of the showdown over the International Tribunal.
In light of the existing regional situation, this division is preventing all sides from achieving any of their objectives, since sectarian strife strips politics from its meaning and essence.
With the possibility of aborting the International Tribunal adhered to by the government, Hezbollah risks exhausting any credit it may once have had by slipping into any form of sectarian conflict

Israel will pay price
By: Prof. Eyal Zisser
Ynetnews - Israel -December 4/06
Just like well trained soldiers, hundreds of thousands of Shiites throughout Lebanon rose up to Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah's call to fill the streets of Beirut and demand the resignation of Fouad Siniora's government. But this is by no means surprising, because clearly Hizbullah is currently enjoying the support of the majority of Shiites, the largest community in the country.
Even the restraint demonstrated by the protestors is not surprising. Hizbullah has proven in recent years that it powerfully rules its supporters: At will Nasrallah is able to call massive rallies in an orderly and calm manner, and at will he sends them to war.
The only surprise the mass rally provided over the weekend was the identity of the key speaker – Maronite General Michel Aoun: In the distant past Aoun was a sworn enemy of the Syrians in Lebanon but he is now their ally. He has become Nasrallah's devoted partner and hopes to pave his way to the presidential palace at Baabda through his support of Nasrallah.
Speaking before some 800,000 opposition supporters who gathered in Lebanon capital, Maronite-Christian general calls for toppling government: 'Only solution for crisis is Siniora and his ministers' resignation.' Group of protesters besieges gov't headquarters
The demonstrators' restraint, as well as the fact that they chose to hide behind General Aoun, demonstrated that Nasrallah's sights are not set on a bloody civil war. Nasrallah is simply seeking to subdue Fouad Siniora and to force him to surrender to his demands.
At this point in time, Nasrallah will also suffice with Siniora's partial surrender to his demands, the highlight of which is the establishment of a new cabinet where Nasrallah and his allies from the Shiite camp will have influence and veto power regarding every decision.
This is Nasrallah's objective for the time being, because in the long term he has long been setting his sights on taking over Lebanon, a notion premised on the fact that the Shiite sect is the largest community in Lebanon.
However, Nasrallah has patience and restraint and is prepared to wait it out until the time is ripe for the big step. Siniora is demonstrating extraordinary courage in face of Nasrallah's display of terror. He is enjoying the support of the majority of the Sunni, Maronite and Druze communities, the international community and the support of the majority of the moderate Arab states.
However, this is not enough. In the event that Nasrallah and his supporters continue the boycott of his government, Siniora will find it extremely difficult to continue functioning. After all, the Lebanese system cannot perform in a situation whereby almost half the population is boycotting its institutions.
Typical Lebanese bazaar
What can be expected, therefore, is a typical Lebanese bazaar, where both sides will ultimately emerge only partially appeased: Siniora will be forced to surrender to some of Nasrallah's' demands and Nasrallah will have to detract some of his other demands.
This would suffice to postpone, albeit not to prevent the next crisis and the one following it, because the fight for controlling Lebanon will remain without a clear defining factor.
But in Lebanon as in Lebanon, rationale does not necessarily determine the evolvement of events. The quiet protests by Hizbullah supporters may get out control, and alternately Siniora may find himself being forced to resign. However, what is more likely is that Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will submit his letter of resignation to Siniora.
As it's currently difficult to imagine the reigning Lebanese parliament finding a majority for a different cabinet to that of Siniora's, the only respite from this crisis would be to hold new elections.
If the situation does warrant new elections, it may end with Syrian supporters having the upper hand (Damascus does after all have proven experience in assassinating potential rivals and in fixing election results in Lebanon according to its interests.) So far Washington has blocked Damascus's attempts to regain power in Lebanon, and in wake of the deadlock in which the Americans are caught up in Iraq, calls are being made for dialogue with Syria.
In the event that Syrian supporters do regain power in Lebanon, those who will pay the price will primarily be the courageous Lebanese people who had hoped that Lebanon would adopt the path of democracy and freedom. Next would be Israel, which would ultimately discover that it had succeeded in distancing Hizbullah from its northern border but will have to face it as the deciding factor in Lebanese politics and in the next government in Beirut.
Finally, the US will also have a price to pay, because Siniora's downfall will symbolize the end of its adventure in Lebanon, pointing the way to an American withdrawal from Iraq and the end of President Bush's vision regarding a new Middle East.
**Professor Eyal Zisser is the head of the Department of Middle East and African Studies at Tel Aviv University

Losing Lebanon
By Tim Mcgirk-www.time.com
With reporting by Nicholas Blanford/Beirut, Aaron J. Klein/Biranit and Elaine Shannon/ Washington.
Posted GMT 12-3-2006 19:29:24
Beirut -- It's never a good sign for a country when the Prime Minister and most of his Cabinet members spend their days barricaded in an Ottoman-era compound. That's what Fouad Siniora and Lebanon's other top officials have done since Nov. 21, when gunmen assassinated Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel in broad daylight.
Siniora's worries go beyond his personal safety. With Lebanon still trying to recover from last summer's 34-day war between Israel and the Shi'ite militant group Hizballah, the government has seen its authority undermined, renewed meddling from the country's neighbors and the growing assertiveness of Hizballah. Organized by Hizballah and its allies, about 800,000 protesters--a rather grand figure in a country of just 3.8 million--gathered in the center of Beirut last Friday to demand the resignation of Siniora. At the time, Lebanon's leader was in his barracks, surrounded by machine guns and barbed wire.
Lebanon wasn't supposed to turn out this way. In March of last year, President George W. Bush was hailing Lebanon as a shining beacon of his Administration's "democracy agenda" for the Middle East. Close to 1 million Lebanese had flooded into Beirut to demand that Syria pull its troops out of Lebanon and end its 29-year domination of the country. The U.S. State Department coined the protests the Cedar Revolution, a more folksy title than the Lebanese term, Independence Intifadeh, which smacked of radicalism. But with six ministers having resigned since Nov. 11, sectarian tensions rising and government officials fearing for their lives, the vision of a new Lebanon is dimming fast--and with it, the Administration's bid to build a positive legacy in the Middle East beyond the wreckage of Iraq.
There are worrying signs, in fact, that Lebanon may be closer to a total meltdown than at any time since the 1975-90 civil war. An Arab diplomat told Time that General Michael Suleiman, the commander in chief of the Lebanese Army, recently admitted that his troops would be able to contain a series of demonstrations "for only a few weeks." If Hizballah organizes protests around the country similar to those in Beirut last week, "We will not be able to cope," Suleiman reportedly said. His concern was that because many of his troops are Shi'ite, they would refuse to act against their brethren within Hizballah.
The nightmare scenario is that Hizballah's show of strength could provoke a backlash against its mostly Shi'ite supporters by Lebanon's Sunni Muslim, Christian and Druze communities. If that happens, most Lebanese believe the situation could quickly escalate into all-out civil war. As a river of pro-Hizballah demonstrators flowed toward Siniora's besieged compound last week, poultry seller Ahmad Sahd, 65, wept. "These youngsters didn't live through the civil war. I did. And it looks like it's starting again." So why is the Cedar Revolution crashing down? Part of the answer rests outside Lebanon's borders. During the summer's war with Israel, Hizballah relied heavily on the Syrians for logistic, military and financial support. According to Israeli officials, Western diplomats in Beirut and Arab sources, Damascus acted as a conduit for Iranian weapons to reach Hizballah, allowing the group to fight the Israelis to a standstill.
Now it is payback time. Lebanese officials, along with Israeli military sources and Western diplomats, say that while Syrian President Bashar Assad may be willing to help pull the Bush Administration out of the Iraqi quicksand, he hopes to exact concessions that would allow him to treat Lebanon, where the Syrian regime has vast financial interests, as his private turf. And according to these same sources, he is unnerved by a U.N.-sponsored inquiry that implicates top Syrian officials in the February 2005 car bombing that killed former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and 22 others. Assad is hoping that the international probe will peter out. Indictments issued by a U.N.-sponsored court against members of the Syrian leadership could critically weaken the Damascus regime and lead to U.N. sanctions against Assad's clique. Hizballah pulled its six ministers out of the 24-seat Cabinet rather than vote to support an international court to prosecute the Hariri case, and the assassination of Gemayel, the scion of a powerful Christian family and a fervent anti-Syrian, was seen as further warning to Siniora. His Cabinet voted anyway to recommend an international tribunal into the Hariri killing, pushing Hizballah into the streets last week.
Hizballah also accuses Siniora's ministers of secretly siding with Israel and the U.S. by failing to provide backup during the July-August war with Israel. With its massive street demonstrations, Hizballah hopes to intimidate the country's other parties into giving it more than the six Cabinet seats it had held, enabling it to block any legislation seen as contrary to the interests of Hizballah and its backers in Damascus and Tehran.
Whether Hizballah succeeds depends on how long it can capitalize on the p.r. boost it gained from waging war with Israel. Among Lebanon's downtrodden Shi'ites, Hizballah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah now enjoys mythical status. The many faces of Nasrallah appear everywhere. At times he is portrayed as a jolly preacher, a wise scholar or a glowering warrior with his turban like a black storm cloud overhead. When a starstruck woman requested the abaya, or robe, that he wore during the war, Nasrallah obliged, and since then TV crews have been following the woman across Lebanon as she displays this now holy garment for other faithful fans.
And yet even in Lebanon, Nasrallah isn't universally adored. Many Lebanese consider it a heroic but colossal blunder on Nasrallah's part to have provoked the Israelis by having his fighters stage a cross-border raid in July and kidnap two Israeli soldiers. War damage in Lebanon is assessed at $3.6 billion. More than 1,200 Lebanese died, and 3,700 were wounded. Another 974,184 were left homeless. Says parliamentarian Saad Hariri, son of the slain former Prime Minister: "When it starts raining and getting cold, people will realize what a huge mistake it was for Hizballah to start this war." What's more, the olive groves and hills of southern Lebanon are sown with more than 1 million bomblets from Israeli cluster bombs, say U.N. experts, making it hazardous if not lethal to wander into these areas.
Hizballah was badly swatted by the Israelis too. The Israeli military says it has the names of over 550 Hizballah fighters who were killed, including 400 belonging to the Iranian-trained elite special forces unit, the Nasr Brigade. In Lebanon, the thinking is that those numbers are probably inflated, that many of the dead were militants unaffiliated with Hizballah who grabbed a gun and joined the fighting. Whatever the body count, Hizballah has lost assets. As part of a cease-fire agreement, 10,000 U.N. peacekeepers and 15,000 Lebanese troops moved into southern Lebanon, long an exclusive preserve of Hizballah. As a result, Nasrallah's men lost possession of a number of strategic underground bunkers, complete with showers and dining halls, honeycombing the limestone hills for miles near the Israeli border. Many of its field commanders were killed in the fighting, and according to Lebanese and Israeli sources, Hizballah inquisitors are now weeding out and shooting suspected collaborators who helped the Israelis by pinpointing militia targets. And every Hizballah office in Beirut was sledge-hammered by Israeli warplanes. The rubble of concrete slabs, steel and scraps of clothing was scooped up by bulldozers into heaps; it has added a dozen large hills to the coastal landscape south of Beirut.
Hizballah's opponents say that as time passes, resentments toward Nasrallah are likely to build. That may be the main reason that Hizballah is again girding for war. The next round could be even uglier. While most of the other communities still have stockpiles of arms stashed away from the days of the civil war, Hizballah's force is stronger and better organized than its rivals, say Beirut-based diplomats. But the various players in Lebanon may find outside backers. The Christians could again find support from the Israelis; and the Saudis, who are alarmed at the growing Shi'ite influence in Lebanon through Hizballah, may find Sunni militias to bankroll. Sunni jihadists may also join the fray, turning Lebanon into a mini-Iraq. Lebanese intelligence recently broke up a ring of 200 Syrian-backed Islamists holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp who had a hit list of 36 Lebanese politicians.
Posters of Nasrallah, usually grinning, may crop up everywhere, but the cleric himself is still deep in hiding. During the summer's fighting, the Israelis made no secret that they were trying to assassinate him. Western diplomats in Beirut say they are trying to persuade the Israelis that killing the Hizballah boss is no longer a good idea. His murder could spark reprisals across the Middle East. Hizballah has ways of taking revenge. After Israelis targeted a previous Hizballah leader in 1992, the militia blew up the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. Should Nasrallah be killed, Israeli missions today would be similarly at risk--as would U.S. interests around the world. But these sources say that the Israelis may be willing to court that danger if they have a chance to take out Nasrallah, whom they view as a particularly clever and dangerous enemy. The damage that Lebanon and the Middle East will face if another war breaks out could make the destruction caused by Hizballah and Israel last summer look like a brisk whirlwind by comparison.
By Tim Mcgirk
www.time.com
With reporting by Nicholas Blanford/Beirut, Aaron J. Klein/Biranit and Elaine Shannon/ Washington.
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