LCCC ENGLISH NEWS BULLETIN
December 2/06Bible Reading For the Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 21,29-33. He taught them a lesson. "Consider the fig tree and all the other trees. When their buds burst open, you see for yourselves and know that summer is now near; in the same way, when you see these things happening, know that the kingdom of God is near. Amen, I say to you, this generation will not pass away until all these things have taken place. Heaven and earth will pass away, but my words will not pass awayFree Opinions
March 2005 and December 1, 2006-Walid Choucair Al-Hayat - Dar Al-Hayat 02/12/06
Legal Norms between Western and Arab Understanding- Mahmoud al-Mobarak Al-Hayat - 02/12/06
Lebanon waits-Al-Ahram Weekly.By: Lucy Fielder 02.12.06
Arabs may one day miss George W. Bush"by Michael Rubin 02.12.06Latest New from the Daily Star for December 2/06
Predominantly Shiite Sit-In to Topple Saniora Government-Naharnet
Franjieh Says Patriarch Got Aroused-Naharnet
Jumblat Accuses Opposition of Launching 'Coup' against Government-Naharnet
Crowd of 800,000 in Beirut protests Lebanon's PM
Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups protest in Beirut-AP
Lebanon democracy in danger: Hariri-NDTV.com
Promised opposition protest kicks off today in Beirut-Daily Star
If war comes, for whom do I root?Concord Monitor - Concord,NH,USA
Aoun in Beirut rally: Siniora must resign-Ynetnews
Anti-government rally fills Beirut streets-Washington Times
Beirut: Unprecedented security around Siniora's office-Ynetnews
Jumblatt calls Hezbollah protest a 'Coup' against Government-Ya Libnan
Hezbollah in Latin America-American Spectator -
Senior anti-Syrian leader in Lebanon says Damascus behind ...International Herald Tribune
Lebanon waits-Al-Ahram Weekly
Palestinians Top Issue In Middle East Debate-All Headline News - USA
Hezbollah to strike, Lebanon face unknown-United Press International
Siniora: Lebanese democracy is in danger-Ynetnews
Amnesty International's Secretary General to lead delegation to ...Amnesty International
Rice Meets With Arab Foreign Ministers On Iraq, Lebanon-Playfuls.com
Israel denounces UN rights probe on Lebanon-Reuters
Presidential candidate Segolene Royal visits French forces in ...International Herald Tribune
Lebanon braces for anti-Western protests-CBC.ca
HizbAllah offensive in Lebanon: Day One
By Walid Phares
December 1, 2006
After serious warnings delivered by HezbAllah secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah since early November, the generalized offensive to bring down the Cedars Revolution-backed Government has begun. As of the early hours of Friday December 1, 2006, thousands of HizbAllah members and pro-Syrian militants took the streets of Beirut, hurdling from all Lebanese areas. The demonstrators started a series of sit-ins around the offices of Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and in other surrounding neighborhoods and public places to “suffocate the cabinet into resignation or collapse” as Lebanese sources said. Following are bullet points to be updated as events will develop:
HizbAllah’s “army”
HizbAllah has mobilized all its membership as well as all persons on payrolls of the organization and in the various bureaucracies controlled by the pro-Iranian militia. In addition, the entire pro-Syrian movements in the country such as the Baath, National-Socialist Syrian Party, and politicians such as Michel Aoun, Omar Karame, Sleiman Frangieh and others. Added to this list, pro-Syrian and Jihadi elements from the Palestinian camps in Lebanon. And since the Lebanese-Syrian borders haven't been sealed by a multinational force, loads of buses carrying members of the Syrian Baath, have been crossing the international frontier to join the anti-Government rally. The total number of the participants would be calculated as equivalent to the pro-Syrian March 8, 2005 demonstrated led by HizbAllah then plus an undetermined number of Palestinian and Syrian elements. And since General Aoun shifted from the Cedars Revolution to an open alliance with HizbAllah few months ago, a number of his hard-core followers are expected to join the crowd.
HizbAllah’s objectives
The political objectives of the "offensive" is to paralyze the Fuad Seniora Government from performing the following tasks: One, is to block the passing of the international tribunal (in the Hariri assassination) law in the Lebanese Parliament in the next two weeks. The Syrian-Iaranian strategy is to block the meetings of the Lebanese cabinet and the Lebanese legislative assembly for as long as needed to crumble this bill. Two, is to force the Seniora cabinet to resign or to accept the inclusion of pro-Syrian ministers so that any decision to disarm HizbAllah would be killed inside the Government. Three, is to crumble the UNSCR 1559 and the relations between Lebanon and the United Nations in general and the US and France in particular. In short a return of the Syrian-Iranian domination in Lebanon.
Media tactics
The media campaign by HizbAllah and its allies worldwide focuses on portraying the "battle" as one between an "opposition" and a "Government," while in reality it is between an Iranian-backed militia receiving 300 million $ annually and has about 20,000 missile on the one hand and a democratically elected Government by a democratically elected Parliament in which HizbAllah and its allies are a minority. And to break up he international unity behind the Cedars Revolution, the "axis" is directing its operatives and supporters worldwide to state that the demonstrations are "anti-American," and when possible anti-Bush. While in reality the US legislation known as "Syrian accountability act" was launched by Democrats in 2003, and that the UNSCR 1559 was initiated by France and that the international investigation missions were headed by a German then a Belgian judges, nevertheless the "architects" of the Syro-Iranian "offensive" in Lebanon want the international media to use the words "anti-American" protests instead of pro-Syrian or pro-Iranian moves. Indeed the war of words will determine how the events will be framed in the next few days and weeks. For many in the international media elite haven't yet "digested" the fact that the Cedars Revolution has risen without an American support in money or military aid. And that the Lebanese democracy movement is genuinely indigenous, with left wing and right wing united against a "foreign occupier," the Syrians, and an Iranian-supported Terror organization, HizbAllah. But this “oil” the influenced network of “pens” inside many news distribution rooms is attempting desperately to force the slogan “anti-American” demonstration as a way to break the international unity behind Lebanese democracy and dubbing the Cedars Revolution as “American” while portraying HizbAllah as a regular “opposition” group.
The “ground” objectives
The longer aim of these movements however is to perform a penetration by HizbAllah and other pro-Syrian forces inside the areas under the control of the Lebanese government. According to inside sources, between five to ten thousand HizbAllah fighters have been mobilized to “organize the security of the demonstrators.” This means that the equivalent of one pro-Iranian division will be entering Beirut from the southern suburb and deploying in downtown and in areas adjacent to the strategic Damascus road. In addition elements from the radical SSNP (the Greater Syria Nazi movement), who are believed to have been behind a number of political assassinations, as well as hundreds of Syrian special forces camouflaged as supporters of HizbAllah are already inside the city. According to security in Lebanon, all roads leading into Beirut with the exception of the north will be under the control of these “forces.” The regular Lebanese Army has received orders by its commander to deploy between the “demonstrators” and the official buildings. While the “core” of the Army follows the institution significant numbers of troops and many officers are either HizbAllah members or follow its instructions. Hence, according to Lebanese Army officers (names not to be disclosed) “when and if the time will come, no one will really know how many will join the Iranian-Syrian axis against the Government.”
For now, the HizbAllah offensive has begun: The infantry has moved in unarmed, yet..
**Dr Walid Phares is a Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy. He is the author of Future Jihad: Terrorist strategies against the West. Dr Phares was one of the architects of UNSCR 1559Predominantly Shiite Sit-In to Topple Saniora Government
Hundreds of thousands of predominantly Shiite demonstrators launched a sit-in across the street from Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's offices in Beirut Friday, demanding his government's resignation.
Retired General Michel Aoun, leader of the predominantly Christian Free Patriotic Movement, addressed the crowd from behind a bullet-proof glass shield saying: "I call on the premier and his ministers to resign".Aoun told the cheering crowd: "Resignation is the only way out".
He criticized some media reports that said participation in the protest by Christians, Sunnis and Druze Muslims was marginal.
Aoun, addressing media organizations, said: "Shame on you to differentiate one sect from another… we've gathered under the Lebanese flag".
However, security sources said most participants in the sit-in drove from the mainly Shiite south Lebanon and the eastern sector, which are traditional strongholds for Hizbullah. Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir on Thursday criticized street protests, noting that they haven't succeeded in settling any conflict in Lebanon. Saniora, in a televised address to the nation screened on Thursday evening, vowed that his cabinet would only resign if it lost a vote of confidence at parliament. The March 14 coalition, which supports Saniora's government, enjoys majority at Lebanon's 128-seat house.
Army troops and armored personnel carriers were heavily deployed around Saniora's offices, where the premier and other cabinet ministers have been residing for over a week after the assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel.
Barbed wire fences as high as two meters were erected around the premises as heavily-armed troops kept demonstrators around 150 meters away.
Meanwhile, organizers set up a chain of tents and makeshift toilets to accommodate the protestors. In an apparent effort to avoid friction, Hizbullah "disciplinary members" formed a chain separating the protestors from security forces. Protestors brandished Lebanese flags and white banners that read: "Down with Feltman's government," in reference to the Saniora cabinet which has been termed by Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah the government of U.S. ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. "We want a national unity government," and "We want a clean government," other banners read.
The protest was launched at 3 p.m., the zero hour set by Nasrallah in a televised statement aired Thursday.
Opposition factions, most of which are backed by Syria and Iran, demand a bigger share in power that would enable them to block decisions by the cabinet that they do not approve. When protesters glimpsed Saniora appearing briefly on the balcony, they shouted, "Out, out Saniora!"
Parliament member Ali Hassan Khalil, who represents Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal movement, said the sit-in would be called off "only when this government resigns and a national unity government is formed."Armored vehicles, police and army troops were deployed in several neighborhoods of Beirut while near Saniora's office civil defense trucks equipped with water cannons were also on standby as soldiers kept watch from rooftops.
Organizers distributed flyers calling for the protest to be peaceful, while demonstrators shouted "America get out of Lebanon." and "We want a free, free government."(Naharnet-AFP)(Photo shows Aoun addressing protestors) Beirut, 01 Dec 06, 18:53Jumblatt calls Hezbollah protest a 'Coup' against Government
Friday, 1 December, 2006 @ 6:14 PM
Beirut- PSP leader MP Walid Jumblatt on Friday accused Syrian-backed opposition factions of launching a "coup" against the Lebanese government by using downtown Beirut to stage an open-ended sit-in. "This is an attempted coup but we will remain strong," Jumblatt told a news conference, a few hours before the 3 p.m.-deadline set by Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian opposition groups to start a protest vowing to topple Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government. "We will stay home, we will hang Lebanese flags ... and when they decide to return to dialogue, we will welcome that," he said. He also accused Syria and "some" of its allies in Lebanon of "doing all they can" to hamper the formation of a Special International Tribunal for Lebanon to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri. "Dialogue is the only exit out of this crisis," Jumblatt added.
The anti-Syrian parliament majority has called on supporters to hang Lebanese flags on their balconies in response to the protest called by the opposition which comprises factions spearheaded by the Tehran- and Damascus-backed Hezbollah.
He also urged the Lebanese people to stay "calm and not over-react." Lebanon's anti-Syrian parliament majority, in power since 2005, accuses former powerbroker Syria of planning to regain control over the country, after its troops departed last year ending a 29-year deployment. Jumblatt accused the opposition of "seeking to bring back the regime of hegemony to Lebanon which they want to link to the Syrian-Iranian alliance."
He said the Lebanese army had to pull back some of its units from south Lebanon to beef up security in Beirut, wondering whether this would lead to pulling out all Lebanese troops from the south which could "hamper implementation the mandate of the U.N. peacekeeping force" in the volatile region bordering Israel. "Maybe they don't want to implement (U.N. Security Council Resolution) 1701 and they don't want to implement the Taef accord," which ended the 1975-90 civil war.
The Taef agreement called for reviving the 1949 armistice accord with Israel which bans both nations from using their respective territory for acts of war against each other.
Jumblatt said: "They want south Lebanon to remain an arena for an open war so that it can be a commodity used for negotiations by the Iranian and Syrian regimes." Hezbollah MP Hussein Haj Hassan was quick to criticize Jumblatt. "Jumblatt lives in illusions," Hassan told the Al-Arabiya television. Jumblatt accuses Hezbollah of damaging the economy
Jumblatt recalled the last dialogue meeting . He said we were in agreement that we had a crises in the country, but suddenly someone (Hezbollah) went to war without consulting anyone. The government of PM Siniora had to deal with problems of the war and the displaced. The government also was able to secure financial help from Saudi Arabia to rebuild what was destroyed and construction started slowly but surely, but Hezbollah does not recognize this and instead claim that they are the ones who have rebuilt with money from Iran."Jumblatt added "I never forget Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's answer when Siniora told him we have a promising summer and we expect to receive in Lebanon more than 2 million tourists". Nasrallah looked at him in the eye and said " My arms do not disrupt tourism".Jumblatt said we lost the tourism business. The 6 % growth in the economy is now a 5 % deficit . The government revenue is down to zero. The hotels are empty. The only thing that is full are the foreign embassies ... full with the young Lebanese who have had enough of this mess and want to emigrate." Sources: Ya Libnan, Naharnet, LBCHezbollah, allies protest in Beirut
By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writer
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Hundreds of thousands of protesters from Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian opposition allies massed Friday in downtown Beirut seeking to force the resignation of Western-backed Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, who was holed up in his office ringed by hundreds of police and combat troops.
The Shiite Muslim Hezbollah and its allies mobilized their bases for the protest, arranging to bus supporters from all over Lebanon and handing out free gasoline coupons to people in remote regions.
The crowd, which police estimated at 800,000, created a sea of Lebanese flags that blanketed downtown. Hezbollah officials put the number at 1 million — one-fourth of Lebanon's population.
Saniora went about his schedule in what appeared to be a tactic to ignore the throngs that quickly filled the streets. With heavy traffic reported on highways leading downtown, pro-government factions urged calm.
"Saniora out! We want a free government!" protesters shouted through loudspeakers. The crowd roared in approval amid the deafening sound of Hezbollah revolutionary and nationalist songs. "We want a clean government," read one placard, in what has become the opposition's motto.
Heavily armed soldiers and police had closed all roads to downtown, feverishly unfurling barbed wire and placing barricades.
Despite Hezbollah's assurances the protests will be peaceful, the heavy security came amid fears the protests may turn into clashes between pro- and anti-Syrian factions or that Hezbollah supporters could try to storm Saniora's government headquarters.
Hezbollah's security men, donning caps, formed two lines between the protesters and the security forces to prevent clashes.
Launching a long-threatened campaign to force Lebanon's U.S.-backed government from office, Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies said the demonstration would be followed by a wave of open-ended protests.
The battle is a fallout from the summer war between Hezbollah and Israel that ravaged parts of Lebanon. The guerrilla force's strong resistance against Israeli troops sent its support among Shiites skyrocketing, emboldening it to grab more political power. Hezbollah also feels Saniora did not do enough to support it during the fight.
Pro-government groups, in turn, resent Hezbollah for sparking the fight by snatching two Israeli soldiers, dragging Lebanon into war with Israel.
A defiant Saniora vowed his government would not fall, warning in a nationally televised speech Thursday night that "Lebanon's independence is threatened and its democratic system is in danger."
Saniora asked Lebanese to show support by raising the Lebanese flag on their windows and balconies. Hezbollah's leader also called on protesters to carry the same banner, the national red and white flag with the historic cedar tree in its middle.
But both camps seemed wide apart on what kind of Lebanon they want.
Government supporters accuse Syria of being behind the Hezbollah campaign, trying to regain its lost influence in its smaller neighbor. Hezbollah and its allies, in turn, say the country has fallen under U.S. domination and that they have lost their rightful portion of power.
Tension have been running high between Sunni Muslims, who generally support the anti-Syrian government, and Shiites, who lead the pro-Syrian opposition, and Lebanon's Christians, who are divided between the two.
In a stark sign of the divide, the spiritual leader of Lebanon's Sunnis, Grand Mufti Mohammed Rashid Kabbani, gave Friday prayers at the prime minister's headquarters in a show of support for Saniora, a Sunni.
"Fear has gripped the Lebanese," Kabbani said, appealing for the protests to end. "The constitution guarantees freedom of expression, but trying to overthrow the government in the street is a call for stirring up discord among people, and we will not accept this."
Hezbollah had threatened to call for demonstrations unless it and its allies obtain a veto-wielding share of the Cabinet — a demand that Saniora and the anti-Syrian parties have rejected. The aim of the protests is to generate enough popular pressure to further paralyze the government, forcing it to step down.
Hezbollah has proven in past rallies that it can draw hundreds of thousands of its Shiite supporters into the streets.
Hezbollah's deputy leader, Sheik Naim Kassim, made it clear the fight is against "American tutelage" and said the protest action will continue until the government falls.
"We will not let you sell Lebanon, we will protect the constitution and people of Lebanon," Kassim said on television Friday, addressing Saniora.
The United States has made Lebanon a key front in its attempts to rein in Syria and its ally, regional powerhouse Iran. President Bush warned earlier this week that the two countries were trying to destabilize Lebanon.
Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, called for the protests to be peaceful. From the other camp, the head of the anti-Syrian bloc in parliament, Saad Hariri, said his supporters should not hold counter-demonstrations.
Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese also flooded the downtown area last week after Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was shot dead to show their support for Saniora's government.
Lebanon has had a string of assassinations of anti-Syrian figures in the past two years, including a prominent Christian government minister gunned down last week and Hariri's father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri, who was killedLebanese Information Centre
November 29,2006
Last week, on November 21, 2006, terror struck again in Lebanon, and this time to take another young and brave nationalistic leader. It is quite obvious who has the greatest interest in eliminating the leaders behind the liberation of Lebanon. We know who the enemies of Lebanon are. Our concern is those Lebanese who are still misled into aligning with and defending these enemies.
Those Lebanese who are allowing the foreign inspired politicians to bundle them under the fake cover of Lebanese political opposition should understand that they are being exploited by Iran and Syria to execute a destructive agenda at the detriment of Lebanon. The only opposition needed in Lebanon today, under the current regional circumstances, should be against those who are undermining Lebanon's sovereignty and independence.
Those of us who are outside Lebanon are frustrated by the apparent political gullibility of well-intentioned Lebanese who are unknowingly obstructing all efforts for the recovery of their nation. We are truly convinced that the assassination of Pierre Gemayel will not be the last, as long as some in Lebanon persist in advancing Syrian and Iranian interests and influence at the expense of Lebanese unity and existence.
We are deeply saddened, like all true Lebanese, by the loss of a young and promising politician who bravely carried a family tradition of true patriotism and sacrifice. This family who has been well entrenched in the fight for the freedom of Lebanon. Evil has won another battle and culled the life of another irreplaceable advocate for freedom. Let all Lebanese be permeated with Pierre Gemayel’s devotion for liberty so in the final battle Lebanon will be the sole victor.Promised opposition protest kicks off today in Beirut
Hizbullah, allies call for peaceful demonstration
By Rym Ghazal -Daily Star staff
Friday, December 01, 2006
BEIRUT: Hizbullah and its allies announced Thursday that a much-anticipated demonstration to force the resignation of Premier Fouad Siniora's government and make way for a "more representative" body would begin Friday in the heart of the capital and continue until their demands were met. "I call upon all the Lebanese people from across the country, sects and classes to join in the massive rally against an incompetent government," Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbullah leader, said in a televised address Thursday on the party's Al-Manar television station.
The announcement came after a tense week in Lebanon, marked by speculation as to when, and in what manner, the protests would take place.
Reminiscent of similar protests held in Beirut's Martyrs Square in 2005 ago that resulted in the resignation of the Syrian-backed government of then-Premier Omar Karami and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon - famously dubbed the "Cedar Revolution" in the Western media - the opposition claims the Siniora government has failed to meet "internal" demands and "has failed to fulfill its promises or achieve anything significant."
"Lebanon, with its [sectarian] makeup, cannot be administered by one side amid difficult internal conditions," Nasrallah said. "Let us call for a national unity government.""We are not talking about eliminating others," he added, but "negotiations and consultations have reached a dead end because the ruling authority has opted to act unilaterally, despite its inability to rule."
All opposition leaders insisted Friday's protest would be "peaceful and civilized," as the aim was to "proceed in a peaceful, civil, democratic and political manner toward the main goal of a new government."Nasrallah did not specify whether protesters would camp out on the streets until their demands were met or gather in the core of the capital anew each day.
The opposition released a joint statement ahead of Nasrallah's appearance in which they said they were calling for a demonstration "only after failing to reach any agreements with the ruling parties through dialogue and discussions.""The opposition forces, on the basis of their constitutional rights, call on all Lebanese, whatever their religious confession, to demonstrate peacefully in an open-ended sit-in from 3 p.m. Friday for a national unity government," the statement said, adding: "The opposition forces appeal to demonstrators to brandish only the Lebanese flag and authorized slogans and avoid any party or sectarian symbols."
A stream of calls soon followed from Hizbullah's allies in the opposition for supporters to join the demonstration to demand a "more representative government," stressing that the public protest would take place in "a peaceful" manner. President Emile Lahoud reiterated that such demonstrations were constitutional and warned against outside interference. "The Lebanese Constitution stipulates that it is everyone's right to demonstrate and express their views in a peaceful and civilized manner," a presidential statement said Thursday. Lahoud warned demonstrators to be aware "of any moves by outsiders to turn the demonstration into a riot." Marada Party leader and former Interior Minister Suleiman Franjieh urged his supporters to make Friday "a historic day.""Do not fall prey to outside attempts to turn a peaceful demonstration into a riot, and maintain your stance and your demands for a national government founded on fair elections," he said in a statement.The former minister called on all opposition supporters in the North to begin making their way to the capital at 10 a.m. Friday. Similar calls were made by Hizbullah and Amal representatives in the South, with a plea for demonstrators to head out in the "early morning" and to "avoid clashes at any cost."
There are fears the demonstration will result in clashes between supporters of the opposition and the parliamentary majority, particularly between Sunni and Shiite in the Downtown core associated with former Premier Rafik Hariri.
Ensuring the demonstration will also include Druze representation, former Minister for the Displaced Talal Arslan called on his supporters to join the demonstration and "help return true sovereignty to Lebanon," saying: "It is time to topple this corrupt government and resurrect the true faces of Lebanon.""This is a chance for all of Lebanon's voices to be heard," Arslan added.
Speaker Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal movement, was noticeably absent from the statements made Thursday.
Speaking after a meeting with Berri, Hizbullah's key Shiite ally, Saudi Ambassador Abdel-Aziz Khouja said the speaker was "still trying to find a solution to the crisis, and doesn't believe there are any closed doors or dead ends to dialogue."ا
Aoun in Beirut rally: Siniora must resign
Speaking before some 800,000 opposition supporters who gathered in Lebanon capital, Maronite-Christian general calls for toppling government: 'Only solution for crisis is Siniora and his ministers' resignation.' Group of protesters besieges gov't headquarters
Roee Nahmias Latest Update: 12.01.06, 19:32
Lebanon's Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun told a huge anti-government rally in Beirut on Friday that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his cabinet had to resign.
Warning
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora says Lebanese democracy in danger after Hizbullah's call for people to 'take to streets' against gov't. Siniora to Lebanese people: Now is time to stand by your gov't
Full Story
"I call on the prime minister and his ministers to quit," Aoun said to the cheers of protesters in central Beirut.
"Siniora must resign and be replaced by a Sunni prime minister who better understands the Lebanese social fabric," Aoun said. "We do not criticize him because of his ethnic origin, but due to his deficient performance. He must go, and his ministers must go, in order for a unity government to be established," he added. Aoun was the only speaker at the rally, which brought hundreds of thousands of demonstrators to a Beirut central square.
The Lebanese police estimated that 800,000 people attended the rally. The decision not to have other speakers was motivated by the organizers' desire not to have excessive representation for Hizbullah in the event. Accordingly, the protesters were asked to wave flags of Lebanon only. Nevertheless, a Hizbullah flag or shirt could occasionally be spotted on the crowded streets.
A group of opposition supporters marched to the headquarters of Prime Minister Siniora after the speech had ended, surrounded the building and blocked off the streets leading to it. The protesters threatened not to leave the compound until the PM resigns.
A government source who was at the building said that Siniora, along with several other ministers, were inside.
In his speech, Aoun slammed Siniora and the heavy security that was placed on his offices ahead of the rally: "If only him and his ministers were here with us instead of hiding behind the security forces. If Siniora thinks the people are with him, he shouldn't have sent the army to defend him. However, he does not respect the people's wish." "We are not shamed of our national slogans. It's true, we are extremists. We are extremists toward safeguarding our sovereignty and the aspiration for free will. We want to be friends with everyone, in the East and West, as long as they respect our free will," Aoun stated. Aoun proclaimed: "We are acting today in order to return to the government, but not in order to be ministers, but so that we can take part in national decision-making. It doesn't matter if we receive five or eight portfolios."
Opposition groups join forces
Since the early morning hours, armored vehicles surrounded Lebanese PM Siniora’s Beirut offices and hundreds of police officers took up positions in the area as part of an unprecedented security effort in advance of the mass protest.
Hizbullah and their political allies are demanding the establishment of a “national unity government” in which Shiite Muslims have at least one-third representation. If such a government is installed, Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah will have veto power on important issues facing the Lebanese government, as Lebanese law demands a majority of two-thirds to pass decisions – including the decision to topple the government. As well, if one-third of lawmakers resign, the government automatically collapses. The decision to take to the streets Friday was postponed due to last week’s assassination of Lebanon’s Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel. The decision was not accepted as it was announced Thursday by Nasrallah.
Opposition loyalists expressed their joy by firing guns into the air in the southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiya, Hizbullah’s sanctuary in the capital city.
The opposition did not request a license for the rally from the Lebanese government, claiming that it was “an illegal government and those present will only be convening, and not protesting,” Hizbullah spokesman Hussein Rahal told the London based Arabic newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat.
Opposition members including Hizbullah, the Shiite Amal movement, and Michel Aoun loyalists, all agreed on an official name for their political camp Thursday; the National Lebanese Opposition Forces.
That was the name they would use in every protest operation which they said would “not stop until the demands, starting with a national unity government, are fulfilled.”First Published: 12.01.06, 17:04If war comes, for whom do I root?
By Iman Azzi
For the Monitor
December 01. 2006 8:00AM
King Abdullah of Jordan has warned that the Middle East could see the outbreak of three civil wars - in Iraq, the Occupied Palestinian Territories and Lebanon. I'm still living in Lebanon, and while the news around me has heated up, my everyday life remains constant - for now.
Last week, Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was assassinated in a northern suburb of Beirut, the sixth prominent anti-Syrian figure to be killed since February 2005. His death followed the resignation of six cabinet ministers. Only two more must resign - or be forced to resign - for the government to collapse. Western media printed dramatic headlines declaring that the country was spiraling into civil war (again), and I wondered if I was going to end up in my second war of the year in Lebanon. Things are going to get worse, my Lebanese friends said, but no one wants the violence that comes with civil war anymore.
But after living through a war this summer, where a foreign aggressor was dropping bombs from airplanes as I slept and killing Lebanese citizens of all religions, I fear more for the outbreak of internal violence than I feared during the summer war.
Yet my life has not changed to reflect the reality being printed on the front pages. The country may well be on the brink of war, but there are at least three night clubs renovating for the New Year, and new cars are driven in abundance.
Unlike the 1975-90 civil war, in which Christians fought Muslims, the confrontations after Gemayel's assassination have been between anti-Syrian Christian supporters of Gemayel and Christian supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement, led by the recent Christian ally of Hezbollah, General Michel Aoun. Sassine Square, the social capital of Christian-dominated East Beirut, houses a Starbucks, a Dunkin' Donuts, two Chinese restaurants, the local cinema and a three-story mall. It's a 10-minute walk from my apartment and has become the stage for a series of clashes involving burnt photos of party leaders, smashed bottles and a war of words so loud that a security force of more than 1,000 was called in to disperse the crowd.
This conflict plays out at the campus at the American University of Beirut, where I attend classes. Unlike in the United States, where students run on platforms dedicated to no Friday classes or free beer, here, campus elections are divided across national political lines. The elections do little to serve the campus but provide a forum for bragging rights for those who win. My classes continue, unaffected. Life goes on.
"The situation is as tense as it was before the civil war in the early 1970s," a man told me at the newspaper office where I am an intern. "The difference is that the armed factions were willing to turn to violence before negotiating. Now, the only armed faction outside the army is Hezbollah, and I believe them when they say they want to keep violence off the table now."
On Tuesday night I covered a rally honoring Gemayel a week after his murder. He was a member of the Phalange Party, which was founded by his grandfather and namesake in 1936. His grandfather was inspired by the European fascist parties. Gemayel was the fifth in his family to be assassinated since the party began. While some people mourned his death, others were quick to co-opt his legacy for political gain.
A billboard campaign organized by the anti-Syrian coalition to commemorate the victims of a string of recent car-bomb attacks added Gemayel's face to the cause. The posters have a portrait of the victim overlapping a larger image of the site of the blast. "We will never forget," they read. Cars, mopeds and storefronts have hung up pictures of their favorite politicians the way American college students post the hot celebrities over their desks.
I've nicknamed the flag-festooned cars that drive by the Phalange-mobiles. Often the party flags are accompanied by recordings of Bashir Gemayel, Pierre's uncle and the former Lebanese president who was assassinated in 1982, blasting from the stereo. (It's still T-shirt weather here, so cars drive with the windows wide open.)
There are many flags in Lebanon. Sometimes I think people have drawers at home just for their sectarian accessories and decide what to bring depending on the rally. At the demonstration, people waved the Phalange flag, the Lebanese flag and the flags of other anti-Syrian parties.
Certain political parties even have their own car-honking pattern. The Free Patriotic Movement has a honking ditty to which supporting cars then toot: beep-beep-beep. "Gen-er-al," for Aoun. "All these deaths are not good for Lebanon," 21-year-old Eli Khoueiry told me at the memorial. "Or for the hope of a democratic Lebanon." I'm half-Lebanese, but I feel like a total stranger in the midst of these passionate political crowds. Those I interview ask whom I support, and I say I haven't been here long enough to get involved. Secretly, I think there's more pride than political intellect among Lebanon's leaders. People in the crowds say I should pick a party, for if I decide to live through any civil war I should at least know which side I want to gain power. So I'm living in a country on the brink of war feeling the same way you feel during the playoffs when the Red Sox have lost and you don't really like any team remaining but you know you still love baseball and can't wait until next year. (Iman Azzi is from Exeter.)
West helps Lebanon build militia to fight Hezbollah
MARK MACKINNON
BEIRUT -- With Western help and support from Persian Gulf states, the Lebanese government has been quietly building up a loyal force dominated by Sunni Muslims and Maronite Christians in anticipation of a possible showdown with the Shia Hezbollah militia and other pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian forces. A senior minister in Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's cabinet told The Globe and Mail that the pro-Western government has moved about 8,000 extra soldiers into the capital in the past few days in an effort to block an expected coup attempt by Hezbollah and its allies, which are planning mass anti-government demonstrations in central Beirut today.
But the buildup began 17 months ago, soon after the pro-Western peaceful Cedar Revolution that swept Mr. Siniora into office, the minister acknowledged. The government's stability may depend on the behaviour of a separate Western-backed force of 24,000 men that was dramatically strengthened to defend the government from just such a challenge.
Syria and Iran have long poured money and weapons into Lebanese groups, primarily Hezbollah. But since Mr. Siniora and his allies took office in 2005, the United States, France and several Sunni Arab countries have set about trying to create a counterbalancing force.
Critics charge that the force is dominated by Sunnis, and that its real purpose is to defend the government of Mr. Siniora, a Sunni, against the growing power of the country's large Shia population. Most of the country's Sunnis back the pro-Western government, while most Shiites support Hezbollah. The country's Christians are split.
Since the Syrian army's departure from Lebanon in early 2005, the United States and France have been providing money and training to the Internal Security Forces, as the light-blue-uniformed police force is known. With the political situation souring further in recent weeks, the United Arab Emirates stepped in to provide the unit with an emergency "gift" of thousands of rifles and dozens of police vehicles.
The UAE and other Sunni Arab states are concerned about Iran's widening influence in the region, cabinet minister Ahmad Fatfat said in an interview, adding that the ISF has received intelligence help from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. Iran is Hezbollah's primary backer.
"In Lebanon, it seems we are an arena between Syria and Israel, but there's a new role for Iran. [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei spoke of this clearly," Mr. Fatfat said, referring to recent comments in which Iran's supreme leader said Lebanon would be the battleground on which "America and the Zionists" would be defeated.
Today, the ISF will be responsible for defending the Prime Minister's office, known as the Grand Serail, from demonstrators expected to pour into the adjacent Riad al-Sohl square. The backbone will be a smaller special-forces unit of 325 crack troops known as the Panthers, identifiable by their dark blue uniforms and modern weaponry.
With the regular Lebanese army seen as unreliable in a crisis -- it fractured along sectarian lines during the civil war -- Mr. Siniora's government and its foreign backers have invested heavily in the ISF.
The United States, which sees Mr. Siniora's government as a flagship for its "new Middle East," gave $1.5-million (U.S.) in "rushed" military assistance to the ISF just before the outbreak of the summer war between Israel and Hezbollah, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation has provided training. Washington promised millions more, but it's unclear whether it was ever delivered.
The ISF has also set up a separate $30-million intelligence-gathering apparatus -- in a country that already had three other such services -- because the other forces were seen as dominated by Christians and Shiites and infiltrated by Syria. Observers say the ISF's intelligence unit is widely reviled by suspicious Christians and Shiites.
"There is no trust of the police here. The police are seen as a Sunni-dominated sectarian force," said Timur Goksel, a professor of public administration at the American University in Beirut.
According to Amin Hteit, a military analyst and retired Lebanese army general, the ISF was a secondary force of about 12,000 men, compared with 63,000 in the regular army, before the Syrian withdrawal. Reflecting the generally accepted population breakdown, a third of its members were Shiites.
The ISF has since doubled in number, with Sunnis and Christians making up most of the new troops. According to Gen. Hteit, just 1,000 of the 12,000 additions are Shiites.
Gen. Hteit, a Shiite who keeps a framed picture in his home of himself with pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, said the force was built up and its Shia representation lessened in order "to keep the government far from popular danger. They need a force to defend the government palace."
Meanwhile, he said, the army has shrunk to 40,000 men, 15,000 of whom are now policing the south of the country, a term of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
The ISF is already deeply resented among those who plan to march on the centre of Beirut today. In October, riots were sparked after two children were killed and 12 people were injured when ISF members opened fire on a demonstration in a Shia neighbourhood.
Sayyidah Ali Naji, whose 11-year-old son Mohammed died after being shot twice in the head during those demonstrations, said she will be protesting today. "We expect anything from [the ISF]," she said. "But we are not afraid."
Lebanese PM vows to defy protests
Written By:Muthoni Kariuki/BBC , Posted: Fri, Dec 01, 2006
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has said his government will not be brought down by mass protests planned by pro-Syrian opposition groups.
Speaking live on national television, Mr Siniora said: "We will not allow any coup against our democratic system."
His remarks came ahead of a huge anti-government demonstration called by the Hezbollah movement and its allies.
Thousands of Lebanese troops and police have been deployed across central Beirut to tighten security.
As well as a heavy troop presence in the centre of the Lebanese capital, ground forces, backed by tanks and armoured vehicles, have also taken up positions at the main entrances to the city.
Tensions in Lebanon soared after a leading anti-Syrian minister, Pierre Gemayel, was killed on 21 November and pro-Syrian MPs quit the cabinet.
Hezbollah has accused the Mr Siniora of leading a government which has failed in its mission. "Fellow Lebanese, we have ahead of us decisive days for Lebanon and its future. In his address, Mr Siniora appealed to Lebanese to stand firm in the face of threats against his government.
"We will not allow any coup against our democratic regime. We are determined to stay the course, as our government is legitimate and constitutional... and enjoys the confidence of parliament," he said.
Lebanon's pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud has declared the government unconstitutional following the resignations earlier this month of five Shia ministers and one Christian ally.
The ministers quit after Hezbollah's call for more cabinet seats for it and its allies was rejected.
Hezbollah has been threatening to hold mass protests for weeks in support of its demand, which would effectively give it a veto over decisions. Earlier on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah also made a televised address, urging Lebanese to join protests.
"We appeal to all Lebanese, from every region and political movement, to take part in a peaceful and civilised demonstration on Friday to rid us of an incapable government that has failed in its mission," he said.
The pro-Syrian opposition has also condemned the cabinet's decision to approve a plan for an international tribunal to try suspects in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
A UN inquiry has implicated Syrian officials in Mr Hariri's death in 2005, an allegation Syria strongly denies.
Lebanon democracy in danger: Hariri
Friday, December 1, 2006 (Beirut):
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora warned on Thursday that Lebanon's democracy was in danger after Hezbollah's call for protests to bring down his government.
"Lebanon's independence is threatened and its democratic system is in danger," he said in a nationally televised address from his office on the eve of an expected massive protest by Hezbollah and its allies aimed at ousting his cabinet.
Earlier on Thursday in a television broadcast the leader of Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, called on the Lebanese people to rally on Friday afternoon in Beirut's main square for a peaceful protest to force Saniora's government to resign.
Saniora, who is backed by the United States and an anti-Syrian parliamentary majority, has been locked in a political power struggle with Hezbollah, which is supported by Syria and Iran, and its allies.
Political crisis
The call for protests came after weeks of political tension between pro-Syrian groups in the opposition, led by the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah, and anti-Syrian factions supporting the government.
Last week, Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was assassinated in a suburban Beirut street, renewing fears that the political crisis was carrying Lebanon back to the sectarian violence of the 1975-90 civil war.
Subsequently there have been scattered unrest in Christian areas of Beirut and Shiite Muslims have rioted in their neighbourhoods.
Meanwhile, the leader of Lebanon's anti-Syrian bloc warned on Thursday that Syria was behind planned Hezbollah protests to bring down the government, trying to restore its power in the country.
Saad Hariri, son of the slain former premier Rafik Hariri, vowed the campaign would fail, but called for restraint among his supporters over the Hezbollah demonstration.
The anti-Syrian bloc dominates parliament and the government, elected on broad support among Lebanon's Christians and Sunni Muslims. Hezbollah and pro-Syrian parties are demanding more power in the government.
Hariri said the pro-government groups would not react to the Hezbollah-led opposition protests, saying Syria hoped to foment a clash between them.
Syria's nearly three-decade domination of Lebanon ended last year, but the government's backers say Damascus is trying to restore influence, along with that of its ally Iran.
Syria's allies in Lebanon say the United States is now dominating the government and calling the shots.
Hariri predicted that Hezbollah's demonstrations would run their course until they realised they could not topple the government. (AP)
Siniora: Lebanese democracy is in danger
Ynet: Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora says Lebanese democracy in danger after Hizbullah's call for people to 'take to streets' against gov't. Siniora to Lebanese people: Now is time to stand by your gov't
Associated Press Published: 11.30.06, 22:40
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said Thursday he will not allow mass demonstrations called by Hizbullah to oust his government , warning that Lebanon's democracy is in danger. In a toughly worded address, he urged the Lebanese to rally behind his beleaguered government, saying only Parliament can take away his mandate.
"We will not allow the overthrow of the democratic system, its foundations and its institutions ... We are staying in our place," Siniora said in a nationally televised address from his office on the eve of an expected massive protest by Hizbullah and its allies aimed at ousting his Cabinet.
"Lebanon's independence is threatened and its democratic system is in danger," He said, adding: "Do not be afraid and do not despair. We have a rightful cause. Threats will not deter us. Maneuvers and ultimatums will not terrorize us," he asserted.
'Stand by your government'
Siniora, who is backed by the United States and an anti-Syrian parliamentary majority, has been locked in a political power struggle with Hizbullah, which is supported by Syria and Iran, and its allies.
He also warned that while the protesters have a right to demonstration his government will not allow "in any way" any attacks on public and private property.
Security forces fear Friday's protesters could try to storm government buildings, though Hizbullah has called for the rally to be peaceful.
He said the coming days were "decisive for Lebanon's present and future," calling on Lebanese to "stand by your government to preserve national coexistence." He extended his hand to his opponents to discuss the disputes, stressing that only through the political process can his government be brought down. "There is no way to topple the government except through parliament, which grants confidence. Anything else is falsehood, illusion, violation of the constitution and a coup," Siniora added.
Hezbollah in Latin America
By Clinton W. Taylor
Published 11/30/2006 12:07:29 AM
It's pretty rare that I have an occasion to congratulate Hugo Chavez's government on anything, especially anything related to the War on Terror. But two cheers are in order for Venezuela's capture of the leader of an international terror organization which looks to be responsible for an attack on a U.S. embassy last month.
Teodoro Darnott, aka "Sheidy Daniel," thought he was immune from Hugo's attentions. Darnott, in the remote Zulia section of Venezuela, near the Colombian border, had begun preaching a weird fusion of militant Islam, Marxist theory, and even a sprinkling of Catholic "Liberation Theology" to a group of disaffected Indians. He detested the United States and Israel and called for jihad -- or in Spanish, "yihad," against their interests in Latin America.
Sheidy Daniel called his group "Hezbollah Latin America" -- a dangerous choice given that the "real" Hezbollah operates quietly in Venezuela, though primarily in ventures designed to raise cash for its Middle Eastern operations. Claiming an association with Hezbollah is like claiming membership with a New York crime family in order to get better service in a restaurant: if you do so, the claim ought to be true, or you must really be looking for trouble. Darnott denied receiving funding from Hezbollah's Lebanon HQ, but he was allowed to go about unmolested while using Hezbollah's name in his very successful organizing and bomb-making -- and his less successful bomb-planting.
Not content to rally his tiny section of followers to jihadi mayhem in Venezuela, Darnott took Hezbollah in Latin America to the Internet. Using free web services like Blogspot and MSN Groups, he set up multiple mirrored websites which guaranteed that even if a few of his sites were taken down he would still have a web presence. And he began advertising: he sent an invitation to join his MSN group to people across the globe, including, for some reason, to me.
Darnott's jihadi message attracted followers in several Latin American countries, including (according to his website) Mexico, and his rhetoric became more violent as well. On August 18th he announced his intention to use explosives against American interests in Venezuela. I called the FBI the next day, but heard nothing new about his bomb plans until October 3. (In the meantime I put together a detailed two-part report about the group for HotAir.com, both parts of which you can see here.)
October 3 was the anniversary of the Hezbollah bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, and a student named Jose Miguel Reyes Espinosa allegedly decided to commemorate the event by setting off two pipe bombs in front of the U.S. Embassy. The nervous Reyes sent his taxi driver into a panic, however, and he was arrested. The recovered pipe bombs (or niples in local parlance) were found to include leaflets referring to Hezbollah -- exactly as Hezbollah Latin America's sites had warned. Subsequent postings on the sites removed any doubt in my mind that Darnott was the mastermind behind these attacks.
Then things took a turn for the strange. On November 13th, Darnott posted a short screed claiming that Reyes had been assassinated by the CIA and the Mossad while in DISIP custody. He called for a much more serious and damaging attack in retaliation, and the site now included a picture of a propane-cylinder device that would probably be much more lethal than the pipe bombs used in the failed October 3rd attack. He also posted a picture of U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield with an annotation that he was "worthy of death." Since the failed attempt in October corresponded precisely to prior warnings on the websites, this new threat was worth taking very seriously.
That was the last posting he would make for a while. Now we know why: On November 18th, the Venezuelan newspaper El Universal reported that the DISIP -- Venezuela's FBI -- had detained a Teodoro Rafael "Nardot" (sic) in a suburb of Maracaibo. He was charged in connection with the October 3rd bombing and with violations of Venezuela's "delinquent organizations" law, and remains in DISIP custody -- along with Jose Miguel Reyes Espinosa, the tales of whose martyrdom by the CIA and Mossad were, apparently, greatly exaggerated.
Darnott will have some time to contemplate where he went wrong. It wasn't the terrorist recruiting, per se, that led to his arrest. Chavez is reported to look the other way for another terrorist group, Colombia's FARC, who occasionally find refuge from Colombian troops by lying low in Venezuela. Projecting power throughout Latin America through a proxy terror group might actually appeal to Chavez's ambition.
But terrorists within Venezuela need to keep a low profile. No one wanted a buffoon like Darnott drawing attention to Hezbollah's presence. Chavez is drawing ever closer to Iran, Hezbollah's chief sponsor, and before this story broke reporters had already begun to question the relationship between the Iranian embassy in Venezuela and Hezbollah's activities there. Given a likely Iranian-embassy connection to Hezbollah's 1994 bombing of a Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, such scrutiny is quite justified. Darnott's anti-Israel and anti-American activities stirred up resistance among the local synagogues, and attracted attention in the blogosphere and on Fox News.
Also, while Chavez frequently relies on a mythical impending U.S. invasion as an excuse for further tightening his control over his country, the last thing he wants is an actual U.S. invasion. A major strike against an American embassy or ambassador would have invited retaliation from the United States, especially since Darnott was able to recruit terrorists publicly and with impunity all summer long and Chavez had done nothing about him.
El Universal's writeup includes an admission by a DISIP officer that Darnott had been under investigation for three months -- and interestingly, his arrest was almost three months to the day from when I reported the bomb threat to the FBI. I've no way of knowing this, but I like to think that the FBI let the DISIP know they were interested in Darnott -- and thereby made him that much harder for Chavez to ignore.
However this arrest came about, the story is not over, since there still several other Hezbollah in Latin America cells that Darnott set up in different countries that bear watching. And his relationship to the Hezbollah Home Office needs to be clarified. But for now I'm quite pleased that this callow bozo is safely in the calabozo.
**Clinton W. Taylor is a lawyer and Ph.D. student at Stanford.
Senior anti-Syrian leader in Lebanon says Damascus behind Hezbollah campaign
The Associated PressPublished: November 30, 2006
BEIRUT, Lebanon: The leader of Lebanon's anti-Syrian bloc warned on Thursday that Syria was behind planned Hezbollah protests to bring down the government, trying to restore its power in the country.
Saad Hariri vowed the campaign would fail, but called for restraint among his supporters when Hezbollah supporters hold a mass demonstration Friday. The rally is the start of a campaign of open-ended protests called by the Shiite Muslim group and its political allies.
"Tomorrow is a day when we will show our resolve ... our calm," Hariri said in an interview with The Associated Press and Associated Press Television News. "They won't be able to bring down the government, because the government has the support of the majority of the parliament and the majority of the Lebanese people," he said.
The anti-Syrian bloc dominates parliament and the government, elected on broad support among Lebanon's Christians and Sunni Muslims. Hezbollah and pro-Syrian parties are demanding more power in the government.
Hariri, the son of the slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri, said the pro-government groups would not react to the Hezbollah-led opposition protests, saying Syria hoped to foment a clash between them.
"We don't want any confrontational demonstrations and we know there are a lot of tensions on the street," he said. "We know that there are certain plans from the Syrian regime to try and destabilize Lebanon ... We will not fall into this plan and we will act accordingly."
But he said his camp will "stand strong with the government ... We're fighting for a free democratic Lebanon ... We will not accept to be part of an axis of Syria and Iran."
Syria's nearly three-decade domination of Lebanon ended last year, but the government's backers say Damascus is trying to restore influence, along with that of its ally Iran. Syria's allies in Lebanon say the United States is now dominating the government and calling the shots.
Hariri predicted that Hezbollah's demonstrations will run their course until they realize "they can't topple the government and then we sit down on the table and resolve all the problems ... They need to understand that we will not change our minds."
He accused Syria of being behind the planned demonstrations to try to stop the international tribunal that will try the suspects in the killing of his father in a massive suicide truck bombing February 2005. Several pro-Syrian Lebanese generals are to be tried, and a senior Syrian official has been implicated in the killing by a U.N. investigation. Syria has denied any involvement in the slaying.
"What is the vision of this group (Hezbollah) for the future of Lebanon? Nobody has a clue, except to protect the interests of Syria in Lebanon," Hariri said. Hariri said the problem lies with President Emile Lahoud, a staunch pro-Syrian whom the anti-Syrian groups want to step down.
"We have a president that needs to leave office, that has proven once too many that his agenda is a Syrian agenda," he said.
Lebanon waits
In the chess game of Lebanese politics, each player anxiously awaits the opponent's next move.
Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut - Al Ahram 30.11.06
Where next, Beirut?
Saad and Syria
It was a week of rumour and counter-rumour. Last Tuesday's assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel propelled the post-war struggle for political ascendancy to a new level, intensifying the polarisation between the so-called 14 March anti-Syrian bloc, vocally backed by the US, and the 8 March opposition of Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah and allied Christian leader Michel Aoun. Each group is named after respective anti- and pro-Syrian demonstrations last year.
Gemayel's assassination had two immediate domestic results: to revive accusations against Damascus from the ruling parliamentary majority, and to scupper, for now, an opposition plan to "take to the streets". Thursday was widely expected to be the day the Hizbullah-Aoun axis began their mass movement to call for more representation in government or early elections. The opposition accuses the government of mishandling, even collaborating in, Israel's aggressive bombing of Lebanon this summer, which killed around 1,200 people.
Instead, on Thursday, crowds of mourners and anti-Syrian protesters surged through the town centre of Beirut, greeting Gemayel's coffin -- draped in the flag of the far-right Phalange Party founded by his grandfather -- and listening to speeches by the main leaders of the 14 March bloc. Hizbullah, it seemed, had been forced onto the back foot, Aoun even more so, leading many to question automatic assumptions of Syrian guilt. "Fifteen days ago, the opposition was riding a high wave of popularity, with a vision of how to reach its goals," said Charles Harb, an American University in Beirut psychology professor and political commentator. "14 March was very much on the defensive."
The assassination of the first Christian Maronite in the series of killings over the past two years aggravated a split in Lebanon's most politicised community, which dominated national leadership until the 1975-90 civil war shifted the balance towards Muslims.
Stephanie Debs, a student, said she usually supported Aoun but disagreed with his current direction. "I want all of us Christians to be together. Christians must be strong first of all. But whenever someone is powerful, Syria kills them," she said, waiting outside St George's Church while Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir conducted Gemayel's service.
Lebanese Forces supporter Tarik Chaar said he believed Hizbullah was behind the killing. "We want a federation in Lebanon, like Bashir," he said. Israeli-backed Phalange leader Bashir Gemayel -- Pierre's uncle -- was assassinated during the civil war in 1982.
Anti-Syrian leaders had urged supporters to turn out in numbers, with slogans such as "The court, now," a reference to the international tribunal into former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's killing last year, broadened on the day of the wake to include Gemayel's assassination, and "no arms except legal arms," a reference to Hizbullah's weapons, a point of growing contention among Lebanese. Gemayel's poster also went up overnight with the message "We will not forget," joining billboards of other anti-Syrian figures assassinated last year.
Supporters of Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement turned out in force, though crowd estimates varied. Although this reporter would put the number at no higher than 150,000, official estimates pointed to more than 1,100,000 people in attendance, larger than last year's vast 14 March protest that piled pressure on Syria to withdraw its troops. Lebanon is a country of 4,000,000 people.
Defying speculation he would switch sides, Aoun announced that his Free Patriotic Movement remained ready for peaceful street protests. "We want to participate and we want balance. The government has lost its legitimacy and does not respect the constitution," he told reporters after a meeting Monday.
Aoun was referring to the government's decision to approve plans for the international tribunal in the absence of Shia representation after six pro-Syrian ministers resigned days before the cabinet met on the issue.
Hundreds of Lebanese Forces (a group led by Samir Geagea) and Aoun supporters clashed Monday night in Beirut's eastern Achrafieh district after the latter attempted to replace a large poster of their leader torn down last week. Bottles were thrown and insults hurled.
Fuelling reports of a Sunni-Shia split influenced by events in Iraq, fights broke out after the Gemayel funeral between Hizbullah and Amal supporters on one side and Future Movement and Phalangists on the other. Shia protesters blocked the airport road briefly after demonstrators insulted Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Al-Manar television channel broadcast footage of demonstrators at the Gemayel rally beating their chests in ridicule of the Shia Ashura ritual. Calm returned when Nasrallah called into Al-Manar station urging his supporters to go home.
Lebanese media reported Monday that the army had arrested armed elements training in the Kesraouan region north of Beirut. Al-Akhbar quoted military sources saying they were Lebanese Forces members on shooting exercises and that a cache of Israeli and American-made machine guns and three Jeeps were seized. Pierre Daher, head of the LBC Christian television channel, said they were members of his bodyguard, and that maps pointing to Aoun's house found in their possession were printed on an invitation card.
Fears are high across all communities, but civil war is still seen as a long way off. "None of the parties has anything to gain by heading towards a civil war," Harb said. "The opposition would not gain power and the government would lose what power they have." Lebanese are split into two rival camps, rather than along clear sectarian lines, Harb said, which means incidents of violence were more likely than outright conflict. Hizbullah remains the only party in Lebanon with significant arms, although many possess light weaponry.
Many anti-Syrians see the opposition campaign and Gemayel's assassination as aimed at blocking the international court so Syrians avoid trial. Hizbullah issued a statement in support of the international court; the government welcomed the statement and said the six ministers, whose resignations Fouad Al-Siniora rejected, were welcome back to the fold to discuss the tribunal. As expected, the ministers stayed away and cabinet approved tribunal plans Saturday. They all wait for the by no means certain approval of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, and then parliament.
"The problem with the international court is that it is both an internal and very much an external issue," said Lebanese American University historian Fawwaz Traboulsi. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was hoping that the international court would be cancelled. Hizbullah, Traboulsi says, has been playing for time. "14 March wants to make sure it goes ahead so that no real compromise happens between the US and Syria that makes the US lose interest in the court."
The US Baker-Hamilton Commission is expected next month to recommend dialogue with Iran and Syria to resolve America's Iraq quagmire.
Meanwhile, US President Bush again accused Iran and Syria of undermining the Lebanese government. "That government is being undermined, in my opinion, by extremist forces encouraged out of Syria and Iran," he said Tuesday. Syria's foreign minister levelled counter-accusations of interference. "We know who's interfering, the Americans and the French," he said on the sidelines of a EuroMed summit in Finland.
A senior US official told Reuters last week that Washington planned a "significant" rise in military aid to Lebanon to sustain a "drumbeat of solidarity" with Prime Minister Siniora's government, notwithstanding signing an agreement two weeks ago to up military aid to $10.5 million. Lebanon's army deployed across southern areas, formerly controlled by Hizbullah, after the war.
At the time of writing, Beirut was on tenterhooks, with heavy army presence in the capital, quiet streets after dark and a counter-campaign by the opposition expected at any time. Whether it will take the form of civil disobedience or street demonstrations is not yet clear, but many believe it will lean towards the former to reduce the scope for confrontation and will be spread throughout the country to show opposition strength without mustering huge crowds. "Rather than try to contain and calm the situation and wait and see what happens, both sides are pushing for a confrontation on the basis that their external patrons are fighting each other," Traboulsi said. "But they're not. The external patrons are confused."
Arabs may one day miss George W. Bush"
by Michael Rubin
The Daily Star (Beirut)
December 1, 2006
http://www.meforum.org/article/1063
The Middle East cheered the Republican defeat in the recent American congressional elections. The official Syrian daily Al-Baath labeled the elections a "painful blow," while the Saudi daily Al-Watan called for a "wise" policy from Washington "to bridge the gulf in confidence between the United States and the regional peoples and governments." The Iranian press gloated, while the Turkish Islamist daily Yeni Aafak argued that the election rebuke was "punishment for Bush's neocon policies." Such reactions do not surprise. President George W. Bush's policies have not been easy for many in the Middle East to digest.
Different segments of Arab societies dislike Bush for different reasons. Many Arabs outside government believe Bush tilts too much toward Israel. Lebanese cite with particular disdain Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's characterization of this summer's violence as "birth pangs of a new Middle East." Others see the US veto last November 11 of a United Nations Security Council Resolution condemning Israel for its military operations in the Gaza Strip as abdication of Washington's role as an honest broker. They accept Palestinian UN observer Riyad Mansour's characterization of the veto as evidence that Washington backs Israel as it "commits crimes and acts of outright aggression with impunity."
That US policy tilts toward Israel has nothing to do with Bush or any single party. While Arab commentators may find comfort in blaming a Jewish lobby, the real reason is more straightforward. To Americans, Israel is a democracy and, for decades, has been a consistent ally. Throughout the 1950s and early 1960s, administrations favored Arab states for the practical reason that Arabs outnumbered Israelis and had oil; it was in US interests to seek partnership in the Arab world. Hence, Washington sided with Cairo against Tel Aviv in the 1956 Suez crisis, handing Egyptian President Gamal Abdel-Nasser his greatest victory. But while Arab states attacked the US, Israel stood by it. Any comparison of UN votes - especially on issues having nothing to do with the Middle East - underscores this pattern.
Bush is not anti-Arab, though. He went farther than any predecessor to support Palestinian statehood when, on June 24, 2002, he declared: "It is untenable for Palestinians to live in squalor and occupation ... My vision is two states, living side by side in peace and security." Certain Palestinian groups, often with foreign support, squandered their opportunity by re-embracing violence. Bush's belief in liberty extended beyond the Palestinians, though. While his father's advisers sacrificed Lebanese freedom for the stability of the Syrian military presence until 2005, Bush sought actual Lebanese independence.
Autocrats across the region distrust Bush for entirely different reasons. To leaders in Cairo, Damascus, Tehran and Riyadh, the Palestinian cause is little more than a useful rhetorical tool to distract their own citizens from failures closer to home. These leaders do not blame Bush for his policies toward the Arab-Israeli conflict, but rather dislike him for his rhetoric of democratization and reform.
The US occupation of Iraq may not be popular anywhere in the Arab world, but scenes of Iraqis celebrating Saddam Hussein's downfall infused Arab regimes with particular unease. Many Arab leaders surround themselves with sycophants. Delegates at Egypt's National Democratic Party conference in September, for example, repeatedly interrupted President Hosni Mubarak's speech to inform him of their admiration for him and the love of ordinary Egyptians. But, outside the posh convention center, ordinary Egyptians cursed their president for corruption, stagnation and his desire for a royal succession. Arab leaders may try to convince themselves that such adoration in sincere, but their reliance upon multiple security services signals their recognition of reality.
White House pressure for reform antagonized these leaders, as the whining nature of editorials in state-run newspapers demonstrated. Previous US administrations, both Democrat and Republican, spoke of human rights, democracy and transparency, but did not push the issue. Bush did. Mubarak did not expect Washington to withhold $134 million in aid to win Egyptian democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim's release. Mubarak's subsequent acquiescence to allow contested elections was the result, in part, of Western pressure.
Bush's reform push was as unpopular among the US foreign policy establishment as it was in Arab capitals. Many "realists" criticized the White House for pressuring such long-standing allies. But Bush, at least initially, refused to accept that the only choice in the Middle East was between the rule of autocrats and theocrats. Against the advice of many career diplomats, he directed the State Department to help build a platform upon which liberals and reformers could thrive.
Bush's initial success is best seen in juxtaposition to his subsequent failure. As critics condemned the effectiveness of his push toward reform and questioned the wisdom of pressuring allies, leaders in Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen began de-prioritizing democratization, closing newspapers, arresting opposition leaders, torturing bloggers, cancelling elections and abandoning pledges to retire from office. Because of this, many Arabs may come to regret their hostility toward Bush and his policies.
As the realists again rise triumphant, stability will trump reform. The same figures who Bush now embraces backed Syria in Lebanon, and ensured Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's grip on power after ordinary Iraqis heeded President George H.W. Bush's February 15, 1991, call for "the Iraqi people [to] take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein the dictator to step aside." These realists did not blanch as Saddam massacred tens of thousands of civilians.
New policies may revive old dictatorships. European governments find it easier to trade with the Revolutionary Guards-operated companies in Iran than press for economic opportunities for ordinary Iranians. Former US ambassadors to countries like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey would rather cash in on their connections to ruling parties than see old faces disappear upon the whim of the electorate.
Nor will Arab civil society organizations be able to rely on their "progressive" counterparts in the West to defend liberalism and reform. Hatred of Bush trumps declared principles. Because Bush made democratization and reform the centerpiece of his Middle East strategy, many Western progressives dismiss them as priorities or even as desirable. After all, in progressive rhetoric how can Bush be both an idiot and correct?
Instead of democracy, many progressives have come to romanticize "resistance." They have become attracted to the same rhetorical motifs projected by liberation movements of a generation past and Islamists today. Embrace of multiculturalism has morphed into a cultural relativism that justifies oppression in the name of culture.
The majority of Arab civil society may celebrate Bush's election rebuke and welcome the end of the Bush years but, as anger fades and Washington re-embraces realism, Arab reformers from Rabat to Riyadh may find they have missed their best opportunity, while dictators and theocrats seize theirs.
**Michael Rubin, editor of the Middle East Quarterly, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
March 2005 and December 1, 2006
Walid Choucair Al-Hayat - 01/12/06//
No political team believes it can achieve victory and settle things in its favor until it is forced to accept to do everything to rescue its ability to achieve its objectives, in a manner that does not accept ambiguity and uncertainty - except through the use of violence, murder and the compulsion under threat of killings and assassinations, in all their heinous kinds.
The occasion for mentioning this is the sharp political conflict and the unprecedented wide-spread outrage in Lebanon, in the ranks of the opposition and the majority alike, along with the Lebanese opposition's preparation for a popular movement and mass protests to overthrow Fouad Siniora's government.
Is the opposition capable of determination, changing the political balance of power and achieving its declared and undeclared goals? Moreover, is the balance of power on the ground and local conditions and the external environment suited for a change in the political equation?
The strange thing, which many of the Arab and impartial foreign diplomats notice, is that each side, the opposition and the majority, acknowledges that it is incapable of a decisive settlement against the other, in terms of having the minimal level of consensus in the Lebanese sectarian order of communities. This has been demonstrated, so far, in the negotiations held during the past few weeks, which did not produce any result except that the opposition was trained, in theory, to find potential exits to the fateful political impasse Lebanon finds itself in.
Pending the outcome of the next move, some observations must be made:
1 - The opposition is taking moves in the street in its pursuit of change, similar to the moves taken by the forces of March 14 in 2005. Those moves led, with external pressures and international Resolution 1559, to Syria's evacuation, and the elections and the coup within the authority have assured the legality of the moves being taken now. Is this analogy correct? The assassination of the martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri is what moved the events. To ignore this factor in the changes of 2005 is again a denial of the reality of the crime and the intensity of the Lebanese-regional-international moment that it represents on the Lebanese scene after the tension generated by the forced extension of President Emile Lahoud's term. To accept the pretext that the March 14 group exploited the crime in order to carry out a coup is, once again, a denial of the time of the assassination in the sequence of events. And the fact that the assassination came before the constitutional deadline for elections, is also of significance. The results of the elections in their appointed time had its own significance, after the Syrian withdrawal. Yet, in spite of this, the changes that took place were partial at best, because the symbol of the former Syrian rule of Lebanon, namely, Lahoud, remains a partner in power.
The analogy between March 14, 2005 and December 1, 2006, simply is not correct. The assassination which took place a few days ago was aimed at the forces of March 14 themselves. This analogy may be correct if the aim of the popular movement, for instance, was the withdrawal of the UNIFIL forces in the South because some Lebanese consider their presence as an occupation. It is this demand that gives them the full legitimacy to accuse the government, which the opposition wants to resign, of being an American-controlled government, as greatly fake as this accusation is. However, the irony lies in the fact that Resolution 1701, which brought the UNIFIL troops, was the result of a European-Arab-American settlement, on the one hand, and an internal Lebanese settlement, on the other. And the opposition has not yet announced its intention to overturn this arrangement.
2 - Foreign interference in Lebanon is not unusual, but in cases where Lebanon was able to reduce the dangers inherent in such interference, there was a relatively substantial Lebanese political society able to absorb the interventions and engender settlements that could prevent them. This crust could absorb the shocks of foreign conflicts, but when there was only a thin film; the internal situation was exposed to destructive and bloody chaos.
This relatively thick crust became a thin film during the phase of the direct Syrian administration of Lebanon. But a thick layer was formed, structured around the four-party alliance, which absorbed interventions following the Syrian evacuation. The disintegration of the alliance, thanks to foreign interference, prompted the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to make a suggestion in his latest talk with party cadres. He called on the group supporting the Iranian-Syrian alliance (the opposition) to meet with the so-called American group in the government to reach a settlement. The two obstacles to this invitation lie in that the revival of the four-party alliance is impossible and that any settlement cannot be reached without the Christians from now on. Perhaps it is for this reason that Minister Pierre Amin Gemayel was assassinated.
Moreover, the negotiations at the highest levels to find a way out of the current crisis demonstrated that even the thin film to protect Lebanon from foreign interference is virtually non-existent. This is what the mediators who reached a partial agreement on the dispute over the subject of government discovered, behind closed doors, when the question of the International Tribunal to try those accused in the assassination of martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri was being discussed. This was in spite of the fact that the Security Council relied on Lebanese the settlement when the formation of the tribunal was endorsed
Legal Norms between Western and Arab Understanding
Mahmoud al-Mobarak Al-Hayat - 01/12/06//
While attending the Islamic Conference last week, I was struck by a phenomenon that once again showed me the Arab nations' lack of understanding of the importance of respecting unwritten legal traditions.
Perhaps it is taken for granted among specialists that custom is the source of all domestic and international laws. Thus, others' respect for these customs - which is itself a law, if unwritten - reflects the high development level of these societies. It reflects their understanding that these norms are originally an expression of these communities' desires; that they consider them to be compulsory. Respecting these norms means respecting these peoples' wishes.
The British concern to take into account and respect the customs of other communities, in general, and the Islamic, especially, has reached an unprecedented degree. For example, traditionally, the British monarch dressed in a modest garb and gloves while meeting the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, just as the late Princess Diana did during her visit to Saudi Arabia. This is not surprising to those who are familiar with the history of the British people's keenness to maintain time-honored customs, domestically and internationally.
At this Islamic Conference - in which I violated my custom of refraining from attending international conferences - it was originally intended that the mother Arab organization be represented by its Secretary General. Unfortunately, the Secretary General of the Arab League (AL) apologized for not attending for reasons which may be understandable, sending a delegate to replace him. Perhaps it slipped His Excellency the Secretary General's mind, while choosing his replacement, the importance of selecting the right person for the right place, as required by the norms of Islamic Conferences. This is because he chose an unveiled woman for an 'Islamic' conference, chaired by the Minister of Religious Endowments of the two largest Muslim countries, namely, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The conference was also attended by a large number of distinguished Muslim Scholars, in addition to the Grand Imam Sheikh of Al-Azhar al-Sharif, under whose sponsorship this conference was held.
Naturally, the unveiled representative of the mother Arab organization sat at the very same podium where the sheikhs and scholars were, which angered the scholars present. Debates and discussions took place, some in secret and others in public, about the reason for the AL's 'provocation'; an act that even a Western, non-Islamic organization would not dare commit.
In my opinion, the conduct of the AL does not reflect a provocation so much as it indicates the ignorance or indifference to the norms of Islamic conferences; inexcusable ignorance on the part of such a distinguished regional organization. However, this ignorance should come as no surprise to those who know the foundations upon which the AL was established when it comes to dealing with its peoples.
Whereas the opening words of the UN Charter - which was prepared on the basis of Western thought - read: "We, the peoples of the United Nations..." in recognition and respect of the role of the peoples across the world for the emergence of international organizations, we noted that the Charter of the AL begins with the phrase: "We the Kings and Heads of State..."
This difference of approach, then, is the result of a difference in thought and political ideology. The philosophy of Western political thought is based on the respect of peoples and customs and traditions. This is probably one of the most prominent differences between the mindset of the Western World and the mentality of the Arab World from the political-legal dimension.
However, respect for ancient customs is not the exclusive preserve of the developed countries. Many Third World countries are still sensitive to diplomatic and social norms. India, for instance, takes into consideration in the selection of its ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that he be a Muslim. This is worthy of respect.
I am also impressed by the nobleness of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud during his reception of veiled Lebanese women who came to greet him. He placed his hand on his chest without shaking their hands to avoid embarrassing them, while he stretched out a hand to the rest of the other women who did not think it embarrassing to shake it.
In truth, the AL's suspicious act in this instance, which angered many Muslim clerics, was not the worst among the many stances taken in the history of the AL. Criticizing the positions of the AL exonerates this latest act from being described as a touch of madness.
We should not really be surprised that this international organization does not care for the traditions of its people, once we bear in mind how it lives in isolation from the foreign attempts to dismember its peoples in Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan and Somalia!
It was the AL that found that the most poignant pages of unanimity in its history came about only when this unanimity was directed against one of its members. This was the case in the 1979 Baghdad summit, where the Arab countries unanimously froze the membership of Egypt and transferred the AL headquarters to Tunis. It also happened in the 1990 Cairo summit against the Baghdad government. Surely, such an organization would see no problem in breaching the unanimity of the clerics!
This regional organization provided an unprecedented example for the rest of the world's organizations, thanks to the quarrels that developed among its leaders in the AL's hallways. Such an organization can be expected to not bother much about the consternation of a number of Dervishes over whether the veil is worn or not!
And it is this 'League' whose Arab-Arab differences have dominated its agendas from its inception till this very day. For instance, in the years of 1966, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1975, 1977, 1983, 1984 and 1986, its summit meetings were canceled. Its meetings in general were suspended for five consecutive years, from the emergency Cairo summit in the wake of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, until the Cairo summit in 1996. The AL honestly could not care less about this Islamic conference or where it was held!
The AL which issued a 'death certificate' for the 'peace process' in an open summit, only to soon afterward breath life into it, may not be reluctant to send another delegate, this time a veiled man, to the upcoming Islamic conference!
What happened at this conference reminds me of a story told to me by an American expert who worked as an adviser to a small Gulf State. In 1988, during this expert's first visit to this Gulf State, which now hosts the largest American military base in the region, and before he met the second most important personality in that country, this expert was briefed by the Office of this official on the old Arab habits and customs of how to 'shake' a cup of coffee when it becomes empty. He was also taught some other ways Arabs show respect that not all Westerners may be familiar with, such as not placing one leg over the other in the direction of the Arab host. This is considered to be bad manners in the old Arab traditions. My friend was very much surprised when he was received by the great Gulf official only to find that the man was shaking his left leg over his right leg in his direction!
*Mr. Mahmoud al-Mobarak is an international lawyer