LCCC ENGLISH
DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 9/07
Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus
Christ according to Saint Matthew 15,21-28. Then Jesus went from that place and
withdrew to the region of Tyre and Sidon. And behold, a Canaanite woman of that
district came and called out, "Have pity on me, Lord, Son of David! My daughter
is tormented by a demon." But he did not say a word in answer to her. His
disciples came and asked him, "Send her away, for she keeps calling out after
us." He said in reply, "I was sent only to the lost sheep of the house of
Israel."But the woman came and did him homage, saying, "Lord, help me." He said
in reply, "It is not right to take the food of the children and throw it to the
dogs."She said, "Please, Lord, for even the dogs eat the scraps that fall from
the table of their masters." Then Jesus said to her in reply, "O woman, great is
your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish." And her daughter was healed
from that hour.
Opinions
The EU's policy toward Syria: a costly wait and see approach-EUobserver.com.
August 8/07
Analysis: fresh blow for Lebanese Government-Times
Online.
August 8/07
Only a political
surge can save Iraq from a definitive fall into the abyss-By
The Daily Star. August 8/07
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources
for August 8/07
The Nahr al-Bared Battle
Claims Two more Soldiers-Naharnet
U.N. Helps Lebanon
Farmers-Naharnet
Wahab: Aoun for President to Follow Lahoud's Path ... Or
Vacant Office-Naharnet
Four Circles of Lebanese Christian Political Symbolism-Middle
East Online
Government to Probe Phone Networking Set Up by Hizbullah
Lebanon uncovers secret Hezbollah phone network-Ya
Libnan
Moussa urges Lebanon to focus on name of new president-Ya
Libnan
Israelis warned of Hezbollah kidnap-France24
Troops capture weapons and ammunition in northern Lebanon,
International Herald Tribune
Israeli Security cabinet meets on prospect of conflict with Syria-Ha'aretz
'There will be no Russian bases in Syria'-Jerusalem
Post
Israel wants to improve UNIFIL mandate-Jerusalem
Post
'Khalas," a New Group For Lebanon's Salvation-Naharnet
Fadlallah Attributes U.S. Intervention in the Region to
Desperation-Naharnet
The Body of a Woman Journalist Missing in Lebanon Found in
Kazakhstan-Naharnet
Berri 'remains committed' to timely presidential polls-Daily
Star
Government to probe phone lines installed by Hizbullah-Daily
Star
Army moves deeper into Nahr al-Bared, seizes weapons-Daily
Star
Qatar gives $2 million to southern villagers-Daily
Star
PLO appoints new commanders in Beirut, Sidon-Daily
Star
Israeli warplanes buzz South, Chouf, Bekaa-Daily
Star
US delivers 80 new humvees to armed forces-Daily
Star
Israeli police arrest woman impersonating army officer-Daily
Star
Civil-society campaign urges leaders to stop bickering-Daily
Star
Tashnag says offers of compromise were snubbed-Daily
Star
Lebanon telecom authority promises solution to DSL woes-Daily
Star
Palestinian refugees lacking IDs live in double bind-Daily
Star
Ecologists, government officials grapple with how to
clean Lebanon's shore following last summer's war-Daily
Star
Government to Probe Phone Networking
Set Up by Hizbullah
Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said authorities would launch a
"speedy" probe into the set up of a new phone line networking by Hizbullah in
south Lebanon. Hamadeh said that Defense Minister Elias Murr, Justice Minister
Charles Rizk and Interior Minister Hassan Sabaa will join in efforts to look
into the matter immediately. Hamadeh revealed that the installation of
underground cables, which run parallel to the state's phone system, had been
"discovered by chance and following ample rumors" in the southern town of Zawtar
al-Sharqieh in the Nabatiyeh district. "(The ministry) has discovered by chance
that a new telephone network is being created along that of the state in Zawtar
al-Sharqieh," Hamadeh said in a radio interview. He said that "technical
reports" later showed that the work has expanded to reach Yohmor in east
Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, with another wireless networking being set up between
the port city of Tyre and Abbassieh as well as in other regions of the Tyre
province. Hamadeh also uncovered similar works are underway in Beirut and the
southern suburbs (Dahiyeh).
During a cabinet session on Monday, the ministers discussed what Hamadeh termed
a "violation of the Lebanese sovereignty" and called for setting up a
ministerial committee to investigate and settle the issue. Meanwhile, residents
of Zawtar Sharqieh condemned in a statement the cabinet's move regarding their
village.
"Residents of Zawtar al-Sharqieh were surprised by the government's measures
designed to sidetrack the citizens from the real crises they are facing," the
statement said. Beirut, 08 Aug 07, 06:44
Large Number of Weapons,
Ammunition Seized in Nahr al-Bared
The Lebanese army seized a large number of weapons and ammunition in the
northern Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared as troops further tightened
the noose around Fatah al-Islam militants holed up for more than two months in
the battered shantytown. "Troops were able to capture, as they advanced, a large
number of weapons, ammunition and military equipment including dozens of rifles,
machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades," the army said in a statement issued
on Tuesday.
"This is in addition to a mortar, a number of shells, rockets and mines," it
said. Also Tuesday, Fatah al-Islam militants fired two rockets from the Nahr
al-Bared camp, located near the northern port city of Tripoli, at the nearby
town of Deir Ammar but no casualties were reported, the state-run National News
Agency reported.
The rocket attack came two days after a similar incident killed a Lebanese
civilian and wounded another in the nearby town of Bebnine.
The army command also said Tuesday that one soldier was killed Monday, raising
the number of troops who have died since the fighting erupted on May 20 to 133.
In addition to the soldiers killed, an undetermined number of militants -- at
least 60 -- and more than 20 civilians lost their lives.The government announced
Monday that police killed the Fatah al-Islam deputy commander, Shehab al-Qaddour,
who is also known as Abu Hureira. Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said he was
killed a few days ago by police in Tripoli. The army has refused to halt its
offensive until the militants completely surrender, but the gunmen have vowed to
fight to the death.(AP-Naharnet) Beirut, 08 Aug 07, 09:01
Fadlallah Attributes U.S. Intervention in the Region to Desperation
Lebanon's most senior Shiite Muslim cleric accused U.S. of intervention in
Lebanon, considering it a part of a desperate attempt for victory in the region
after its "failures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine."Grand Ayatollah Mohammed
Hussein Fadlallah was commenting on last week's announcement by U.S. President
George Bush that his administration will freeze the assets of people deemed to
be undermining Lebanon's government.
"America's intervention escalated in Lebanon in the recent period because of the
American administration's need to guarantee a political victory," Fadlallah said
in remarks distributed by his office. He added "the American administration is
trying to achieve any gain in the shadow of the embarrassment hitting it because
of its failures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine after the failure of Israel's
war on Lebanon and the retreat of America's project in the region." The
Hizbullah-led opposition in Lebanon has been locked in a fierce power struggle
with the Western-backed government of Fouad Saniora. The opposition's main
demand has been the formation of a national unity Cabinet that would give the
opposition veto power. Saniora, backed by the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority
and the U.S., rejects the opposition's demand. Syria had significant control
over Lebanon before its troops were forced to leave in 2005 because of
international pressure following the assassination of former Prime Minister
Rafik Hariri. Many in Lebanon believe Syria was behind the killing -- a charge
Syria denies. Bush's executive order targets people found to be helping Syria
assert control in Lebanon or otherwise undermine the rule of law. (AP-Naharnet)
Beirut, 08 Aug 07, 09:17
Khalas," a New Group For Lebanon's Salvation
Civil society activist groups and networks launched "Khalas," a campaign aimed
at encouraging the feuding sides to resume national talks in an effort to end to
the ongoing political impasse that has gripped Lebanon for the past nine months.
"Khalas," Arabic for enough, was first mentioned during the mediatory visit of
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to Lebanon. Kouchner visited Beirut
weeks ago to help broker an agreement between the majority and pro Syrian
opposition camps. He said in his last statement before heading back to Paris
that Khalas campaign "will disclose the moods of the Lebanese community" and the
will of its diverse sectors to live together in peace. The campaign will seek to
gather thousands of signatures on a petition that will urge the participants to
"assume the political responsibility" and abstain from "sectarian instigation"
in public and private statements. Khalas will also organize events and protests
to raise awareness against a political vacuum and the much-feared formation of
two governments if a new president for Lebanon was not elected on time. Among
the campaign founders was Kamel Mhanna, who represented the Lebanese civil
society in the Paris-hosted Lebanon dialogue last month.(Picture courtesy from
as-Safir daily newspaper) Beirut, 08 Aug 07, 12:10
The Body of a Woman Journalist Missing in Lebanon Found in Kazakhstan
Kazakh authorities said on Tuesday they have found the body of a woman
journalist who went missing in Lebanon in 2004 in a mysterious case fuelling a
feud within the Central Asian country's ruling family. Officials said the body
of Anastasiya Novikova had been recovered from a secret grave in southern
Kazakhstan and implicated Rakhat Aliyev, a former son-in-law of President
Nursultan Nazarbayev, in the episode. The deceased journalist was a distant
relative by marriage of Aliyev and was a staffer of his television channel, NTK.
The scandal comes as oil-rich Kazakhstan prepares for parliamentary elections on
August 18 that are supposed to boost its international reputation and show that
it is moving towards democracy. Interior ministry spokesman Bagdat Kozhakhmetov
told reporters: "We exhumed the body and tests established that it is Anastasia
Novikova.... The circumstances of the death have still to be determined."
In a bizarre twist, Kozhakhmetov said the body, which bore signs of multiple
fractures, had been brought secretly to the ex-Soviet republic from Lebanon by
people close to Aliyev, after she died in June 2004. It was not clear what she
was doing in Lebanon. Kozhakhmetov said he believed investigators would prove
that Aliyev's associates "buried her secretly in a place prepared in advance" in
southern Kazakhstan. Aliyev is embroiled in a feud with the first family that
has raised questions about the system of rule set up by Nazarbayev, who has run
the country since Soviet times and is expected to receive massive backing in
this month's elections.
The president's once powerful son-in-law is now in Austria fighting an
extradition request by Kazakhstan where he is wanted on kidnapping charges.
He recently became divorced from Nazarbayev's eldest daughter as tension with
the president reached breaking point.
Last week a letter demanding Aliyev's extradition was sent to Austria by
Novikova's brother and the wives of two bank officials who had been allegedly
kidnapped by Aliyev.Novikova was married to a cousin of Aliyev who worked in
Kazakhstan's embassy in Vienna, where Aliyev until recently served as
ambassador.
The cousin died in a car accident in Austria in 2005.(AFP) Beirut, 07 Aug 07,
18:55
Analysis: fresh blow for
Lebanese Government
Nicholas Blanford of The Times, in Lebanon
The victory for Michael Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement in yesterday's
by-election will disappoint Western backers of the Lebanese Government as it
could further weaken the already-threatened administration of Fouad Siniora, the
Lebanese Prime Minister.
With the difference in seats in Parliament between the Opposition and the
Government extremely slender, every seat is considered crucial.
The result will also boost Syria, which had given its full backing to Aoun's
candidate and which sees his party's alliance with Hezbollah as a way of
increasing influence in Lebanon, and eventually bringing down the Government.
However, despite all of this, the Lebanese Government still has reasons to take
heart. Fundamentally, this is because Christian support for Mr Aoun, and his
party's pro-Hezbollah direction, is weaker than it actually appears.
The evidence suggests that some two thirds of Christian Maronites did not
actually vote for Mr Aoun's party - instead they voted for the Government's
candidate in the by-election, Amin Gemayel. It appears to have been the
pro-Syrian groups and the Armenians who secured the victory for Mr Aoun.
The slump in Christian support can be put down to some of his controversial
strategic decisions over the last two years, since he won Parliamentary
elections with an impressive 70 per cent of the Maronite Christian vote.
In particular, he took the unlikely and highly unusual decision to form an
alliance with Hezbollah, which is a Shia Muslim organisation funded by Iran and
backed by Syria. This has flummoxed many of his traditional Christian
supporters, who recall Mr Aoun's previous speeches in which he sharply
criticised Syrian involvement in Lebanon, and supported previous UN resolutions
to disarm Hezbollah.
With that in mind, his alliance with Hezbollah looks like political opportunism
in the extreme, and a bid to dispose of Fouad Siniora's Government at all costs.
It is an alliance that not only irritates some Christians, but also leaves many
in Hezbollah feeling uneasy. Bearing in mind Aoun's previous anti-Syrian and
anti-Hezbollah stances in the 1990s, many within the Shia movement do not trust
him.
A sideline to today's election is undoubtedly Mr Aoun's personal desire to
become Lebanese President, in elections which are due shortly.
He will claim that his party's by-election victory stands him in good stead, but
the voting patterns in that victory suggest it may be very much in the balance.
Israelis warned of Hezbollah kidnap threat abroad
Send by e-mail Save Print Israel on Monday warned that Lebanon's Shiite
Hezbollah militia is seeking to kidnap Israelis who visit Muslim countries.
Israel's anti-terror headquarters issued a travel warning ahead of the Jewish
holidays in mid-September, repeating its call not to travel to any Arab country.
The warning included Jordan and Egypt with its Sinai peninsula -- one of the
most popular destinations for Israeli tourists. Jordan and Egypt are the only
Arab countries to have signed peace accords with Israel. The warning said that
there is "a severe potential threat" of kidnapping Israelis throughout the world
by Hezbollah, with which the Jewish state fought a war a year ago after the
militia seized two soldiers in a cross-border raid.
In 2000, Hezbollah snatched Israeli businessman Elhanan Tannenbaum after luring
him to the United Arab Emirates. He was released in January 2004 as part of a
prisoner exchange deal with the militia.
Conflict Between Zionists and Islamists
Jahanshah Rashidian (Iran/Germany)
August 7th, 2007
Since several generations, we have an unsolved conflict in the Middle East, the
conflict of Israel-Palestine. The conflict resulted into several conventional
wars and many acts of terrorism and violence in this region. The roots of
animosities are not on the shoulder of one or another side, but both belligerent
sides:
- In the case of Israel, since its existence in 1948, whoever governs in Israel,
the policy is more or less influenced by Zionist ambitions. Zionism propagates
the idea that the whole region is the Jewish sacred homeland, where allegedly
the early Jewish nation originated over 3,200 years ago. Zionism is the first
fundamentalist and extremist ideology of the region. It goes so far to claim
that the entire region belongs to Israel. It explicitly ignores the rights of
many vibrant communities who have been living there during the last 3000 years.
- The counter-pole to extremist Zionism is the advent of Islamism in Palestine
and Lebanon, Islamists dream of destruction of Israel and creation of God’s
state in its place. They regard the territory of Israel, the Gaza Strip, and the
West Bank as an inalienable “Islamic waghf” (Islamic assets), which can never be
surrendered to non-Muslims.
It is true, the both Islamists, militant movements fight to push back Israel
from their occupied territories, but at the same time sow seeds of Islamism in
these territories. They do not intend to free their people, but to impose the
yoke of a God’s state on this region. The God’s state dreamed by Hamas is
derived from a dictatorial belief system; the one which is now largely rejected
by a growing majority of Iranians.
Despite that the Islamic revolution of Iran failed, the Islamic radicalism of
which it was a projection, continues to be an aggressive ideology and imposes
problems for the entire region. What now bothers all Palestine-loving people is
the future of this land. In other words, not only Israeli occupation, but also a
take-over of Islamists in Palestine is a serious alarm for Palestine. The
international community must help Palestine to attend its deserved rights of
independence, while rejecting and isolating the rise of Islamism.
The plague of Islamism in Palestine Islamism was reborn with Hamas, founded in
1987 in Gaza by both Shaikh Ahmad Jassin and started its existence with its
jihadi attacks on both military and civil targets in Israel.
Though Hamas is a Sunni organisation, but is a protégé of the IRI; it follows a
strict charter which is not different from IRI’s official policy towards Israel.
According to this charter the State of Israel must be wiped off the region and
replaced with an Islamic state. Furthermore, Hamas will not accept any
non-Islamic state in Palestine.
Hamas, like all Islamists, opposes any peace process with Israel; it regards
such a process a “betrayal of God’s will”. This is its fundamental difference
with the PLO which in 1988 recognised Israel’s sovereignty.
Hamas’s last success in the Palestinian elections is not a consequence of the
rise of Islamism linked to the Iranian revolution, but rather a related reaction
to the deep frustration of Palestinians who were disappointed from the West.
This frustration is characterises by the continued postponement in the
resolution of Palestinian conflicts, US foreign policies in their absolute
support for Israel in its occupation of “Islamic” territories.
The Islamists, wherever they are, guided or inspired by the IRI, stage the
question of state at the middle of their battleground. The legitimacy of such a
state cannot be ignored. Therefore in the case of Palestinian independence, the
PLO or any non-Islamist political force will not be for Hamas in the legitimate
position to govern.
The second IRI’s proxy-movement in this region is Hezbollah. It was formed in
1982 by the IRI’s officials and the Revolutionary Guards Corps. It was to import
the “Islamic” revolution of Iran in the region. The movement was logistically
helped to fight Israeli occupation following the 1982 Lebanon war. Hezbollah’s
ideology is based on the Shiite Islam, specifically in the concept of absolute
power of supreme leader or “Welayat-e-Faqih” put forth by Shiite Islam in Iran.
Although, Hezbollah is considered by the West as a terrorist organisation, it is
a recognised political party in Lebanon, where it has now two ministers in the
government and can even influence the coming president elections. For the
moment, the Lebanese government rejects Hezbollah’s slogans: “God is the target,
the Prophet is the model, the Koran the constitution, jihad is the path and
death for the sake of God is the loftiest of the wishes”.
Hezbollah’s strength is enhanced by the military and financial backing of the
IRI. Terror is its principal weapon and Islamism its only ideology. It follows a
jihadist and Islamist policy dictated by IRI’s officials. Though, the movement
claims that its goal is not to establish an Islamic state in Lebanon, but the
double standards of its allegations show that Hezbollah has realised that
Lebanon is the only Arab country which has not been very affected by Islam. The
majority of Lebanese have no close ties with Islamic traditions and are
horrified by the advent of the Mullahs who imposed an Islamic regime in Iran.
The country has been long a paradise of tourists with all non-Islamic
entertainments and a secular way of life.
Lebanon with only 40 percent Shiites is not a cosy cradle of Mullahs. Hezbollah
has taken this fact into consideration; therefore, a God’s state, on the IRI’s
model, is not officially demanded. However, it claims that an Islamic state
requires the consent of the people, and since Lebanon remains a religiously and
ideologically heterogeneous society, their political platform favours the
introduction of an Islamic state in Lebanon by non-militant means
All trilateral parts of conflicts, Hamas, Hezbollah and Zionism, reject
constantly peaceful solutions. All of them believe that Palestine is a
consecrated land for their future generations and only so it must exist until
Judgement Day. If all of them are at the height of their radicalism, they will
gender an eternally vicious spiral of war and violence. The two Islamist
movements of Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon are along with
aggressive Zionism the main obstacle for peace in this region.
The two antagonistic poles have different charges and sacred altars. Neither
Zionist sacred expansionism nor Islamist God’s state can guarantee peace and
co-existence in this region.
It is to mention that Israel is implicitly authorised by the US to continue its
animosity not only against Islamist groups, but also the legitimate rights of
Palestinian.
Now, the least the international community is to encourage both sides to achieve
peace and co-existence based on the UN repeated resolutions and bilateral
agreements. If this conflict is to be stopped, the international community must
defend the historically rights of Palestinians to install their UN proposed
state. The Lack of an international consensus can be interpreted as a green
light to continue the conflict.
What concerns Israel and Palestine, a durably peaceful co-existence of all
peoples in the region can be guaranteed when only the democrats and seculars are
the official peace-makers of both sides.
A necessary conference - with impediments in tow
By Eli Podeh
American President George Bush's call for an international conference in the
autumn has, on the face of it, created a diplomatic horizon. The overt
diplomatic arena, and apparently also the covert one, is teeming with activity
while the American patron is trying to arrange a gathering that will be suited
to all its participants. This conference is likely to be the finale of the Bush
era, and therefore, from the American point of view, it must succeed.
First and foremost, Bush was motivated to initiate an international conference
to compensate for the continuous American failures in the Middle East. Quite
possibly the post-Saddam era Middle East is neither more stable nor more secure.
The opposite is true: the anarchy in Iraq; the strengthening of Iran and of the
Shi'ites in the Arab world, including Hezbollah; the rise to power of Hamas in
Gaza; and the continued growth of Al-Qaida cells - all prove that the region
still has the potential to threaten the world order. Moreover, beyond
considerations of prestige, the issue of the continued flow of oil at reasonable
prices is most important to the West, while, in effect, the price of a barrel of
oil is rising daily. In view of all these concerns, progress in solving the
Israeli-Arab conflict is likely, according to the American concept, to assist in
lessening the threats in other sectors and to increase regional stability. The
international conference, therefore, is a tool for providing momentum to the
diplomatic negotiations in the hope this will lead to progress in solving other
problems in the Middle East. The idea of a conference is not a bad one. It
ensures that the regional agenda will not be fixed and ruled by radical Islamic
elements. It is a convenient opportunity for the moderate voices in the Arab
world to speak together - both openly and clandestinely - to battle those
elements that even in their eyes are considered dangerous. Indeed, the visits to
Israel of the Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers as representatives of the
Arab League (even though they were not officially portrayed this way); the
meeting of foreign ministers from Arab states in Egypt; the visits of
Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates to the region; and the United States arms deal
with Saudi Arabia, all reveal an extraordinary diplomatic momentum that is aimed
at preparing the ground for the international conference.
Numerous signs indicate that the Saudi kingdom will be represented at the
conference at the price of the $20 billion American-Saudi arms deal. No doubt,
the participation of the Saudis at this conference is most vital, as it will
grant Islamic legitimacy to any move. Saudi Arabia has an interest in moving
forward a conference of this type, strengthening its status in Washington as the
most important Arab ally and its status in the Arab world. The conference also
constitutes a natural continuation of the Arab peace plan that began at as Saudi
initiative in 2002.
At the same time, the conference also raises quite a few difficulties.
Apparently the U.S.and Israel are determined to focus on the Palestinian track,
and to make progress on this track, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is currently
proposing the negotiation of an agreement on principles only, which will form
the basis for future talks on a final-status solution. In this way, Olmert is
returning to the well-established Israeli pattern of preferring negotiations on
the Palestinian track to making progress on the Syrian track.
This preference, which is being made in an open and crude fashion, may once
again push Syria toward radical demands. In reality, the Syrian policy is at
present moving along two parallel tracks: One is the call for peace negotiations
with Israel; and the other is intensive contact with Iran and with Hezbollah.
These two lines are not mutually exclusive but rather are aimed at complementing
one another: The strengthening of the alliance with Iran, the funding of arms
purchases from Russia and the operation of Hezbollah are all intended to serve
as means of strengthening Syria's bargaining power vis a vis the U.S. and
Israel.
Hints about clandestine Israeli-Syrian negotiations through a third party have
flourished recently. Even though this channel has so far not produced results,
Israel and the U.S. must not alienate Syria and leave it watching the
international conference from afar. If it is left out, Syria will promote
difficulties in terms of holding the conference and may even try to torpedo it.
It is worth remembering that the Arab peace plan, which will undoubtedly form an
important basis for the conference discussions, also includes a reference to the
Syrian and Lebanese arena.
The Palestinian track is also likely to lead to many difficulties. Unlike the
past, when the Palestinians had an agreed-on and elected representation, the
current division between two leaderships - Fatah and Hamas - does not augur
well. Any progress with elements in the Palestinian Authority that recognize
Israel could come up against a veto from Hamas, which represents a large segment
of the Palestinian population. The overt and callous attempt also on the part of
the U.S. and Israel to strengthen Abu Mazen (PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas), even if
it helps him in the short run, is likely to turn into a double-edged sword in
the long run. Hamas could turn for help to regional elements that are interested
in torpedoing any diplomatic initiative - including Syria if it is left out in
the cold - and could denounce any agreement Abu Mazen might make with Israel as
"betraying" the Palestinian cause or cause difficulties with its implementation
if it does not torpedo it completely.
The hope is that a move with a large number of participants under a pan-Arab
aegis will grant legitimacy to any diplomatic process and will push Hamas into a
corner. At this stage, the organization, it seems, has not yet regained its
strength after the shock it experienced following its success in gaining control
of Gaza and as well as the shock from the swift countersteps adopted by Abu
Mazen. Apparently Hamas is still weighing its options. In theory, Hamas could
allow Abu Mazen a certain diplomatic leeway on the assumption that he would get
for Hamas what it could not get for itself unless it renounced the principle of
non-recognition of Israel. Hamas may hope that eventually it would be able to
gain control also in the "liberated" West Bank.
The current format of the conference does not indicate that the Lebanese track
will be taken into account. There is a struggle now in Lebanon that symbolizes
the struggle in the entire Middle East. The upcoming presidential elections will
face off candidates who are being supported by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah and
candidates who are identified with the camp that opposes these forces, with the
division cutting across ethnic groups.
The exclusion of Lebanon from the conference was done perhaps out of
considerations of not wanting to escalate the already shaky internal situation
there, but just as the West tries to strengthen Abu Mazen in various ways, so it
is worthwhile strengthening Fuad Siniora's pro-Western government by inviting it
to the conference. Any resolution that is adopted by the conference will enjoy
the legitimacy of almost all the Arab states and in this way will be able to
strengthen the chances of its implementation inside Lebanon, where Hezbollah can
be expected to oppose it.
Despite all these difficulties, and despite all the risks, the conference must
be held. In an article in Haaretz a few weeks ago, I proposed that a regional
conference be called, and that it be split up into several tracks, just like the
Madrid Conference in 1991. A conference of this kind could, on the face of it,
focus on the Palestinian track, as it seems to be doing now, but focusing on
this track alone, which is tied up not only with Israeli-Palestinian problems,
but also mainly with intra-Palestinian problems, increases the chances that the
conference will fail, a situation that would undoubtedly cause the region to
heat up and provide additional support for radical Palestinian forces. Therefore
it is preferable to expand the circle of Arab countries that are participating.
Finales do not carry a message for the future but rather sum up a period and
grant a sense - however fleeting - of elevation of the spirit. But all the
participants are arriving at this finale tired and worn-out. One hopes a
conference will succeed at least in creating a momentum that will constitute a
convenient infrastructure for a more daring American leader, one who will have
better success at pulling the wagon of Middle East negotiations up the steep
hill