LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
APRIL 12/2006

Below news fromthe Daily Star for 12/04/06
Talk is cheap: Lebanon needs reform process to start now
Nine arrested for planning terror acts in Lebanon
Siniora banks on U.S. trip to strengthen his hand
Conference addresses Millennium goals
Cabinet urges NSSF overhaul
Assassination plot stokes 'serious' fears
Aoun: Security bodies up to the task
General scoffs at media claims on Shebaa map
Hasbaya gun battle results in 22 arrests
Union boss demands full enrolment in NSSF
New Beirut mall struggles to attract shoppers
LibanCell dispute threatens Lebanon's credibility
Lebanese women will have their say
Ain al-Hilweh asks ministerial delegation to put off visit
Arab reform, a boxer in between rounds
Iran claims membership in nuclear club as U.S. threatens Security Council action
Below news from miscellaneous sources for 12/04/06
Iran priming Hezbollah for war with U.S., Israel? Lebanese leader Jumblatt says his country is no longer independent-WorldNetDaily 12.4.06
White House Condemns Iran’s Uranium Enrichment-kwtx
Analysis: Belfast, Beirut Rules in Baghdad.By Martin Sieff.-UPI Apr 11, 2006
Hariri family to develop $5 bln city in Jordan-Reuters 
Prophetic deeds needed to bring peace to Lebanon, says Cardinal-AsiaNews.it
Lebanese Premier Fuad Siniora To Visit Washington
Israel's Enemies Encroaching-theTrumpet.com - Edmond,OK,USA
1996: Israel launches attack on Beirut-BBC News
Military: Slay plot foiled in Lebanon-Boston Globe
Lebanon denies Hezbollah assassination plot-Business Day
Damascus bracing for Hariri probe endgame, say analysts-Reuters
Iran, Lebanon review recent developments in Islamic countries-IR N
EU opens new era of ties with Lebanon-IRN
 

White House Condemns Iran’s Uranium Enrichment
Iran Takes Step Toward Nuclear Power
(April 11, 2006)--A White House spokesman calls Tuesday’s word from Iran that it has enriched uranium more proof that the country "is moving in the wrong direction." The U.S. and other countries have tried to block Iran from the step, which can make fuel for nuclear reactors and nuclear weapon components. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a nationally televised speech Tuesday "Iran has joined the club of nuclear countries." He says Iran isn't making weapons and wants to operate under supervision from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The nuclear agency's leader is due in Tehran this week. White House spokesman Scott McClellan says the enrichment claims will "only further isolate" the country.
And the American ambassador to the UN says the announcement shows Iran isn't "paying any attention to" the U-N Security Council.Meanwhile Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said he won't go into "fantasy land" to speculate about a possible U.S. attack on Iran. Rumsfeld insists the U.S. is "on a diplomatic track" to counter Iran's disputed nuclear ambitions and its support for terrorists. Rumsfeld also refused to comment on Iran's claim Tuesday that it has successfully enriched uranium for the first time.  The defense secretary says he'll "wait and see" what U.S. experts have to say.
On Monday, President Bush dismissed reports that the Pentagon was planning to target Iran as "wild speculation."

Iran priming Hezbollah for war with U.S., Israel?
Lebanese leader Jumblatt says his country is 'no longer independent'
Posted: April 11, 2006 © 2006 WorldNetDaily.com
Iran is attempting to draw Lebanon into a conflict with the U.S. and Israel and is priming the Hezbollah militia to assault the Jewish state in the event of an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, Lebanon's Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said in an interview.
"Lebanon is being used by the Iranians as a front which could be used if the Americans retaliate against Iran's nuclear facilities. Lebanon is now entangled in a greater axis. It is no longer independent," said Jumblatt, speaking to WND's Aaron Klein and ABC Radio's John Batchelor on Batchelor's national radio program for which Klein serves as a co-host. [Listen to Jumblatt interview.]
Jumblatt is the head of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party and is largely considered the most prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese politician. He said Syria and Iran have formed an alliance against the U.S. and have the past year tightened their collective grip on Lebanon.
"The Syrians feel at ease because of the Iranian connections. [Syria-appointed Lebanese President Amil] Lahoud is much more confident because of the alliance with the Iranians. The borders between Lebanon and Syria are open. Syria is smuggling [into Lebanon] weapons, ammunition and fighters. Hezbollah too is the best to destabilize Lebanon against independence," said Jumblatt.
Syria last April withdrew tens of thousands of troops it maintained in Lebanon, announcing it was ending its nearly 30-year occupation of the country. The withdrawal was considered a result of mounting international pressure following the assassination in February 2005 of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, for which Damascus was widely blamed.
But there has been a steady stream of reports Syrian intelligence agents continue to operate in Lebanon. Syrian and Lebanese intelligence agents have been blamed for a series of bombings and political assassinations that have rocked Lebanon since Hariri's murder.
Jumblatt said he was unsure of the extent of Syria's intelligence network in Lebanon. He called Lebanese President Lahoud a "Syrian agent, just a puppet of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad."
He blasted the international community for "dropping the ball on pressuring Syria" the past few months.
"We heard a lot of talk about pressuring Syria last year, but have not seen much lately," said Jumblatt. "You have to ask for Bashar [Assad] to go then maybe Lahoud might go. ... I don't see it possible to change [Syria's] behavior without changing the regime."
Jumblatt warned together with Syria the Tehran regime has been funneling money and weapons to Hezbollah to use against Israel and American interests in the event of an attack against Iran's nuclear sites.
Hezbollah reportedly maintains between 12,000 and 16,000 conventional short- and long-range missiles pointed at Israel's northern border, including missiles capable of striking the civilian and industrial heartland of the Jewish state. Security officials say Hezbollah has recently been able to obtain antiaircraft missiles.
Israel and United Nations observers have noticed a buildup of Hezbollah militants along the Israeli-Lebanese border the past month. Israeli security officials last month warned Hezbollah was looking to kidnap Israeli civilians and soldiers and escalate violence along the border.
Jumblatt's statements concerning Hezbollah come in the wake of a report in London's Daily Telegraph stating Iranian Revolutionary Guard units are now deployed at Hezbollah posts along the Israeli border and are developing an advanced intelligence-gathering network for spying on the Jewish state.
A senior Israeli Defense Forces commander told the Telegraph that Hezbollah posts fortified by Iran are "now Iran's frontline with Israel. The Iranians are using Hezbollah to spy on us so that they can collect information for future attacks. And there is very little we can do about it."

Prophetic deeds needed to bring peace to Lebanon, says Cardinal Sfeir
by Yousef Hourany - On the eve of his 11 April, 2006 departure for France, Maronite Patriarch criticises President Lahoud for “tying his fate to that of Syria”.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – On the eve of Easter festivities, Card Nasrallah Sfeir has made a strong appeal to all Lebanese “to assume their responsibility and renew their commitment to bring peace to the entire country and to all social components of society, through prophetic deeds, worthy of the history of the Land of the Cedars, a land made by the Maronites and Lebanese themselves”.
The Patriarch’s appeal was made today after meeting French Ambassador Bernard Emier at Bkerke. Media sources indicated that the two men talked primarily of the Patriarch’s upcoming visit to France, scheduled for May 13-20, in the course of which, he will meet French President Jacques Chirac to renew French commitment to Lebanon, especially to the Maronite Church, a Francophone stronghold in the Middle East.
The Patriarch’s visit to France comes on the heels of his interview with French magazine Le Point in which he reiterated his disquiet vis-à-vis the “weakness of President Lahoud, who can no longer govern”.
He criticised Lahoud for “tying his fate to that of Syria” and reiterated his belief that “as a military man, President Lahoud is never going to resign”.
For some observers, the meeting between Sfeir and Chirac will play a “determining role” in the history of Lebanon and provide an opportunity to both sides to confirm once again the privileged connection France has to Lebanese Christians and Lebanon. The two men are also likely to talk about the future of the current Lebanese president. According to Lebanon’s press, the US government is fully behind French involvement in finding a solution to Lebanon’s problems. Others talk about a “Saudi-French” compromise worked out during President Chirac’s last visit to Saudi Arabia where he discussed the Lebanese question with King Abdullah.

EU opens new era of ties with Lebanon Brussels,
April 11, IRNA - EU-Lebanon
The European Union and Lebanon held their first Association Council meeting in Luxembourg Tuesday opening a new era in bilateral ties. "This first Association Council provided an opportunity for a constructive and rich political dialogue, for an exchange on economic and social co-operation and on the dialogue between cultures," the two sides said in a joint statement. It underlines the importance the EU and Lebanon attach to their partnership "which is based on shared values, joint ownership and co-responsibility."
The Lebanese delegation was led by Fawzi Salloukh, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Emigrants. The EU side was represented by Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for external relations and Ursula Plassnik, Austrian Foreign Minister and current and President of the EU Council.
The Association Agreement signed in 2002 provides a framework for regular political dialogue between the EU and Lebanon. Lebanon and the EU are expected to enter into a new phase of intense co-operation with the entry into force of the Association Agreement, noted the joint statement.

Iran, Lebanon review recent developments in Islamic countries Ankara
April 11, IRNA -Iran-Lebanon-Turkey Majlis Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel conferred on Tuesday with his Lebanese counterpart Nabih Berry on issues of mutual interests. At the meeting which was held on the sidelines of the meeting of parliament speakers of Islamic countries in Ankara, Haddad said "The Islamic Republic of Iran is now closely following up the ongoing developments in Lebanon as a sensitive country in the world of Islam." "Iran pays utmost attention to dealing with the issues of Lebanon," he said.
"Despite of enemies efforts, Lebanon is now going ahead on the road to unity and solidarity which is a source of happiness," he pointed out.
The Lebanese parliament speaker, for his part, lauded the Iran's support for his country and expressed hope that the current meeting would bear fruitful results for world Muslims. Parliament speakers of Islamic states, in their two-day meeting, will discuss issues related to the Islamic world including the West's and US's double standards approach to issues affecting Islamic states, sacrilege of religious sanctities and support for the Palestinian people. An expert meeting of the 4th OIC Parliamentary Speakers' Conference and the 14th meeting of the Executive Committee of the OIC Parliaments' Union kicked off separately in Istanbul on Saturday. The OIC Parliaments Union was established in Tehran upon the initiative of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1999. Its second and third sessions were held in Morocco and Senegal in 2001 and 2004, respectively. Iran's Majlis speaker arrived in Ankara Tuesday morning to attend the meeting.

SYRIA: Damascus bracing for Hariri probe endgame, say analysts
11 Apr 2006 13:00:22 GMT
DAMASCUS, 11 April (IRIN) - The authorities are preparing for the anticipated outcome of the ongoing UN inquiry into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, say Damascus-based analysts. Chief UN investigator Serge Brammertz met with President Bashar al-Assad in the capital on Sunday, the BBC reported. The meeting was the first of its kind since last April's UN Security Council resolution 1595 established an independent investigation into the assassination of Hariri, who died along with 22 others in a massive truck bomb in Beirut last February.
Neither the official UN investigation spokesperson in Beirut nor the Syrian Foreign Affairs Ministry was available to comment on the meeting. A recent statement from the ruling Ba'ath Party, however, sought to distance the state from possible responsibility for the killing, in the case that any Syrian nationals are found to have been involved. "There was a statement by the Ba'ath Party recently that if a Syrian is found to be responsible for the assassination, he'll be considered as an individual and not as the state," explained Marwan Kabalan, a political analyst at the Damascus Strategic Studies Centre.
"The charges brought against such a Syrian domestically will focus on negligence," added Kabalan. "This is a change. For the past year, the official position has been to deny any responsibility."
In an interview with US television channel PBS on 23 March, al-Assad promised that, if any Syrians were found guilty of the crime, they would be considered traitors to Syria. "If there is anyone who is involved, he is going to be called a traitor… Such a traitor will be punished," said al-Assad. "But there's a difference between a traitor and the apparatus or government behind him."
Brammertz was also scheduled to meet Vice-President Farouk al-Shara, who was foreign minister at the time of the assassination. Both al-Assad and al-Shara had previously denied requests to meet Brammertz's predecessor, German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis. The two men finally agreed to meetings with the Belgian investigator, however, after his 15 March report highlighted improved Syrian cooperation with the inquiry.
Many ordinary Syrians, meanwhile, have grown impatient with the UN inquiry, with some hoping that an imminent conclusion will help ease strained relations with their Lebanese neighbours.
"I want the UN investigation to finish so I can visit my aunt in Lebanon again," said Salam al-Ali, a 27-year-old history teacher. "Some Lebanese have accused the Syrians of responsibility for the assassination, so we want to get to the truth. We want to tell the Lebanese – and all the world – that we're not responsible."

Lebanon denies Hezbollah assassination plot
BEIRUT — Lebanon denied a report yesterday that nine men had been arrested in a plot to kill Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, but confirmed the men had been detained for planning an attack “against the state”. “The plans of the arrested did not include the assassination of Nasrallah,” a judiciary official said. He dismissed the report in the As-Safir daily as “exaggerated” and said the suspects were being hauled before a military court for “trying to carry out an attack against the authority of the state and for possessing weapons”. He said the group was “planning its actions in the case of instability in Lebanon”.
As-Safir quoted security sources who said the assassination of the head of the armed Shiite party was planned for April 28, when Nasrallah was due to attend Lebanon’s national dialogue.
Lebanon’s military intelligence service broke the network last week, it said.The group “had been tracking Nasrallah’s movements for March and April and had put in place a thorough plan to assassinate Nasrallah during the next meeting of the national dialogue”.The attack would have involved firing antitank rockets at Nasrallah’s vehicle convoy as he made his way to the talks. Five of the suspects were relatives and weapons ranging from guided-missiles, rocket- propelled grenades, assault rifles and silencers were found on the men when they were picked up at their homes and at work. The national dialogue started last month with the aim of healing national divisions and tackling sensitive issues like the continued existence of Hezbollah’s armed wing. Sapa-AFP

Military: Slay plot foiled in Lebanon
By Joseph Panossian, Associated Press
BEIRUT -- Military intelligence has arrested a group of terrorists who planned to assassinate the leader of the Hezbollah militant group, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, a senior Lebanese military official said yesterday.
Sign up for: Globe Headlines e-mail | Breaking News Alerts The plot was ''in the phase of intentions" and had not reached ''the phase of implementation," said the Lebanese official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
He told The Associated Press that nine Lebanese and Palestinian suspects were detained and would be handed over to a military prosecutor today for more questioning and indictment.
The daily newspaper As-Safir reported yesterday that military intelligence had arrested the plotters last week after they were seen acting suspiciously near Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern Beirut district of Haret Horeik. Authorities were looking for more members of the plot, the paper said.
The military official told the AP that some of As-Safir's details were true, ''but others are not so accurate." He would not elaborate. Nasrallah's political adviser, Hussein Khalil, confirmed the assassination plot and arrests. The foiled attack on one of Lebanon's top Shi'ite Muslim cleric and politician came as fears of sectarian strife have rippled through the Middle East.
Last week, Arab diplomats said intelligence officers from Iraq's mostly Sunni Muslim neighbors have been meeting secretly to coordinate their governments' strategies in case a religious civil war erupts in Iraq.
And on Saturday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak all but blamed Shi'ites of being disloyal to their states and following orders from Iran, the only country with a Shi'ite leadership. ''Definitely Iran has influence on Shi'ites. Shi'ites are 65 percent of the Iraqis . . . Most of the Shi'ites are loyal to Iran, and not to the countries they are living in," said Mubarak in an interview broadcast by Al Arabiya satellite TV station.
Mubarak's comments have drawn fire from Shi'ites across the region.
Hezbollah, which the United States and the European Union brand as a terrorist group, is a major political force in Lebanon with 11 legislators in the 128-seat Lebanese Parliament and two ministers in the 24-member Cabinet. The group credits itself with liberating south Lebanon from Israeli troops.
The As-Safir newspaper said the terrorists plotting against Hezbollah's chief had planned to fire armor-piercing rockets at Nasrallah's car when he traveled to central Beirut for the next session of the national dialogue among Lebanon's faction leaders. © Copyright 2006 Globe Newspaper Company.

1996: Israel launches attack on Beirut
Israeli planes and helicopters have launched air strikes against targets in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, for the first time in nearly 14 years. At least five people were killed and several wounded in the attacks on the Syrian-controlled Beka'a Valley, the Hezbollah stronghold of Iklim al-Tuffah in south Lebanon and the coastal road between Beirut and Sidon and Tyre.
The assaults on pro-Iranian Hezbollah targets are retaliation for rocket attacks two days ago on northern Israeli settlements.
Israeli government spokesman Uri Dromi said Israel would "chase Hezbollah everywhere".
"We want to drive home the message to the Lebanese and whoever helps Hezbollah that going on with this will be very costly and painful."
Boy killed
In the past few weeks Hezbollah has carried out a number of attacks in which seven Israeli soldiers and three Lebanese civilians have been killed.
Hezbollah says the barrages are in revenge for a bomb it blamed on Israel which killed a boy in a south Lebanon village.
With a general election in Israel looming, Prime Minister Shimon Peres felt compelled to take decisive action.
The attack on Beirut sent shockwaves through the city which thought it had seen the last of war after PLO leader Yasser Arafat was forced to leave after sustained Israeli assaults in August 1982.
Panic-stricken motorists clamped their hands on the car horns and blasted their way through traffic jams.
In the Sahel hospital a young man with a bloodied face was surrounded by television cameras. He told them: "I was walking in the street and all I remember is s flash and then I found myself covered in blood."
Israel said the attacks were aimed at Hezbollah's "primary operational headquarters". But later reports said the building survived intact. The raids are a challenge to Syria and likely to delay the next stage of the Middle East peace process - an attempt to reach agreement between Syria and Israel. Although Lebanon is not directly involved in the process, the country has a heavy Syrian military presence and the attacks may give Syria an excuse to delay the next part of the negotiations. Israel holds Syria responsible for allowing Hezbollah to continue rocketing the communities in the northern region of the Jewish state. It is also punishing Lebanon for failing to prevent the Hezbollah attacks.
The United States administration is urging restraint but it has refused to condemn Israel's actions.
US Secretary of State Warren Christopher said: "Fundamentally the problem is created by [Hezbollah's] rocket attacks into northern Israel."

Lebanese Premier Fuad Siniora To Visit Washington
Will discuss with President Bush progress in Hariri assassination probe
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora will visit President Bush at the White House April 18 to discuss economic development, democratic reform in Lebanon and progress in the investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. (See related article.)
For information on U.S. policy in the region, see Middle East and North Africa.
Following is the text of the White House announcement:
(begin text)
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
April 10, 2006
STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY
Visit of Prime Minister Siniora of Lebanon
President Bush will welcome Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to the White House on April 18, 2006. Lebanon is a good friend and valued partner to the United States, and has made tremendous strides under Prime Minister Siniora's leadership toward greater prosperity and democracy since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country. The President and Prime Minister Siniora will discuss a range of issues, including economic development and democratic reform in Lebanon and the Middle East, the investigation into the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri last year, and Lebanon's continuing efforts to reestablish its sovereignty, freedom and independence.(end text)
(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

Israel’s Enemies Encroaching
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
As Israel continues to wage a war it lacks the will to win, its enemies are taking the fight to the next level.
Israel’s tactics in its war with the Palestinians suffer from one major flaw: Victory is not the goal. Certainly if Israel was devoted to stopping the Palestinians decisively, it has the military capability to do so, if not the national will or the international support for that sort of action. Instead, the government is focused on the idea that making Israel smaller—giving land to the Palestinians—will make Israel more defensible, a strategy equivalent to sending a football team backward to better protect the goal line. The newly elected Kadima party, led by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is committed to finalizing Israel’s ultimate borders by 2010.
Meanwhile, recent developments show that Israel’s enemies are encroaching on Jewish territory and increasing their ability to wage war.
The Gaza Strip, since being vacated by Israel last August, has become quite a hive of terrorist activity.
Reports show that terrorist kingpin Abu Musab Zarqawi has decreased his activities in Iraq so he can “lay the groundwork for an Islamic war against Israel” (Middle East Newsline, April 5). He has formed ties with Palestinian insurgents in the West Band and Gaza Strip and begun to cooperate with the head of the military wing of Hamas. Israeli military leaders contend that, in addition, about a dozen al Qaeda agents entered the Gaza Strip this year to form cells.
It appears some of the fruits of their efforts may already be visible. On March 28, a Katyusha rocket was fired from the northern Gaza Strip. Until now, Palestinian terrorists have only had access to far less damaging Kassam rockets. This more powerful rocket with a longer range—about 20 kilometers—is considered a major upgrade in Palestinian military capability.
Consider: No one would fire anything from the Gaza Strip if Israeli officials had secured the area instead of reasoning that leaving would make Israel safer. What has happened instead is that Israel’s enemies happily accept the gift—then use it as their new staging ground for attacks.
Understanding the nature of the terrorist threat, this result of Israel’s unilateralist withdrawal seems painfully obvious. Still, in spite of the proven failure of this strategy of retreat, Israel proposes a similar plan for the West Bank. The more land Israel gives away, the closer its enemies come to their stated primary goal: the destruction of the Jewish state.
The Katyusha rocket attack is even more disturbing when one considers its origin: Military officials say that the Palestinian insurgency groups acquired the rocket from Hezbollah—based in Lebanon and sponsored by the world’s most dangerous rogue nation: Iran.
Iran has taken an active interest in the Palestinian situation. As the rest of the world demands that Hamas denounce violence and recognize Israel, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised to cut off Iranian funding if Hamas stopped its terrorist activities against the Jews. Israel’s Arutz Sheva stated that Ahmadinejad made a special trip to Syria “to be sure that the terrorism against Israel would not slow down for a moment, and would even increase” (January 22). Iran accomplishes this goal by supporting terrorist organizations like Hamas, al Qaeda, and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah; Iran’s Revolutionary Guards regularly travel to Lebanon to help train Hezbollah fighters.
Senior Iraeli commanders also say that “Iran has spent tens of millions of pounds helping its close ally, Hezbollah … to set up a network of control towers and monitoring stations along the entire length of Israel’s border with south Lebanon” (telegraph.co.uk, April 4). These towers are located less than 100 yards—the length of a football field—from Israeli army positions, reinforced with concrete and fitted with bullet-proof reflective glass.
Iran has also provided Hezbollah with intelligence-gathering and communications equipment, along with improved weapons and ammunition—heavy mortars and rockets with a range of up to 30 miles.
An Israeli military commander said, “The Iranians are using Hezbollah to spy on us so that they can collect information for future attacks. And there is very little we can do about it” (ibid.). Take note: Israel knows who the enemy is, where the enemy is carrying out its operations, what weapons it has, and what the enemy is going to do: launch further attacks—but remains unwilling to take the action necessary to protect itself.
Israel does not have the pride in its power to stop the encroachment, to decisively take the battle to its enemies and win its war for survival. That is exactly what Bible prophecy said would happen (Leviticus 26:19). To better understand what is happening in the Middle East—and why—please read our free booklet Jerusalem in Prophecy.

Analysis: Belfast, Beirut Rules in Baghdad
By Martin Sieff
Apr 11, 2006
WASHINGTON, (UPI) -- The Bush administration has not yet begun to realize that the Iraq war has changed not just in intensity but in its very nature: Belfast and Beirut rules now apply in Baghdad.
At a high-level Pentagon planning conference on the Iraq insurgency earlier this month two three-star generals attended and new tactics to cut down on IED attacks were much discussed. But participants told UPI that not a word was mentioned about the possibility of a Shiite militia uprising against U.S. forces in Baghdad and southern Iraq.
U.S policymakers continue to describe the Iraq war as a straightforward "white hats versus black hats" face off between the U.S. armed forces in Iraq and the Iraqi army and security forces America has worked so hard to build up on one side, and the Sunni insurgents led by Islamist extremists and Baath regime veterans on the other.
But since the bombing of the Al Askariya, or Golden Mosque, in Samara on Feb. 22, the nature of the conflict has completely changed. Shiite militias have been killing Sunnis - often innocent people - at a rate four times higher than the casualties Sunnis have been inflicting on them.
Even worse, the Shiite militias have not been operating independently of the government's new Iraqi armed forces but in many cases have been operating from within them. As UPI's Pam Hess has reported, there are no security screens to prevent militia veterans from being recruited into the Iraqi police and army, which are run by Shiite dominated forces.
What has happened in Iraq since Feb. 22 -- and the conditions for it in fact were remorselessly building up for at least two and half years before that -- is that Iraq has already fragmented into a state of sectarian conflict. This is a condition very familiar to the long-suffering citizens of Belfast and many other cities around the world. And it has unleashed dynamics very different from a straightforward guerrilla revolt operating out of an ethnic minority community.
When Belfast and Beirut rules apply, a society has already fragmented into a mosaic of mutually hostile parts. Effective political power within those parts, or ghetto-ized communities, has already devolved down to the militias who dominate them. That means the militias become the source not only of physical protection, but also the providers or arbiters of public services like sanitation, running water and electrical power.
Significantly, the small British military force of around 8,000 soldiers at its height spread across southern Iraq has recognized these developments far more rapidly than commanders of the 130,000 U.S. troops further north, spread largely across Baghdad and central Iraq. This is in large part because the British army has a great deal of relatively recent institutional experience of dealing with the dueling Protestant and Catholic paramilitary groups in the Northern Ireland conflict. And they are, therefore, used to dealing with militias on the political level rather than either demonizing them as bad guys or naively embracing them as good guys, which U.S. commanders have been prone to do.
Once confidence in a central government is shattered, as happened in Belfast in 1969 and in Beirut in 1975 - it may take decades to win it. But the first priority of any national or international peacekeeping force caught in the middle, whether it be the British Army in 1970s Northern Ireland or the U.S. Army in Iraq today, has to be to get the killing and retaliatory attacks under control and prevent them escalating into an out-of-control bloodbath.
Once that is achieved, however, the militias in the different communities have to be drawn into a web of negotiations, dialogue and compromise to keep society running and relatively peaceful while longer-term political strategies are developed. The British succeeded in doing this in Northern Ireland in the late 1970s and 1980s. The French Army, despite its dramatic victory over the Algerian FLN forces in the Battle of Algiers in the late 1950s, never managed to do so.
The most frightening sectarian conflict model for Iraq may be Lebanon, where society collapsed with Christian, Palestinian and Shiite militias all fighting each other in overlapping, complex struggles, with Syria and Israel directly intervening militarily and metastasizing the conflict and the casualties whenever they did so. Currently Iran in Iraq appears to echo the Syrian role and aspirations in Lebanon of getting its smaller, prosperous neighbor effectively under its hegemony once the hard-pressed other intervening power -- in Lebanon's case, Israel and in Iraq's, the United States -- gets tired of the casualties and the complexity and pulls out.
Mosaic conflicts also require that the outside military power seeking to establish stability and order make tactical alliances with some militias at the expense of others. But it needs to do so cautiously and not rashly -a mistake the Israelis made big time when they charged into Lebanon in 1982. And it is vastly more important to avoid antagonizing ethnic groups and their militias needlessly than to embrace other ones in close alliances.
Belfast and Beirut rules are not simple, they are not black and white or clear cut and they are certainly not morally or philosophically neat, tidy or morally satisfying. But when they are followed correctly, they can save scores of thousands of lives. U.S. forces in Iraq now face the challenge of learning them -- fast.
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