LCCC ENGLISH DAILY
NEWS BULLETIN
March 22/15
Bible Quotation For Today/Healing Of
the Blind Man
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 10/46-52: "They came to
Jericho. As Jesus and his disciples and a large crowd were leaving Jericho,
Bartimaeus son of Timaeus, a blind beggar, was sitting by the roadside. When he
heard that it was Jesus of Nazareth, he began to shout out and say, ‘Jesus, Son
of David, have mercy on me!’ Many sternly ordered him to be quiet, but he cried
out even more loudly, ‘Son of David, have mercy on me!’Jesus stood still and
said, ‘Call him here.’ And they called the blind man, saying to him, ‘Take
heart; get up, he is calling you.’So throwing off his cloak, he sprang up and
came to Jesus. Then Jesus said to him, ‘What do you want me to do for you?’ The
blind man said to him, ‘My teacher, let me see again.’ Jesus said to him, ‘Go;
your faith has made you well.’ Immediately he regained his sight and followed
him on the way."
Bible Quotation For Today/Indeed,
we live as human beings, but we do not wage war according to human standards
Second Letter to the Corinthians 10/01-07: "I myself, Paul, appeal to you by the
meekness and gentleness of Christ I who am humble when face to face with you,
but bold towards you when I am away! I ask that when I am present I need not
show boldness by daring to oppose those who think we are acting according to
human standards. Indeed, we live as human beings, but we do not wage war
according to human standards; for the weapons of our warfare are not merely
human, but they have divine power to destroy strongholds. We destroy arguments
and every proud obstacle raised up against the knowledge of God, and we take
every thought captive to obey Christ. We are ready to punish every disobedience
when your obedience is complete. Look at what is before your eyes. If you are
confident that you belong to Christ, remind yourself of this, that just as you
belong to Christ, so also do we."
Latest analysis, editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March
21-22/15
8 Things You Didn’t Know About Assyrian Christians/Daniel Costa-Roberts/March
21/15
The US’s ambiguous stance on Syria/Osman Mirghani/Asharq Al Awsat/March 21/15
The burden of empire, the price of leadership/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/March
21/15
Iran’s Creeping Conquest of Iraq/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Al Sharq Alawsat/March
22/15
Lebanese Related News published on March
21-22/15
Report: Saniora to Present Testimony before STL on Monday
Lebanese officials mark Mother's Day with tributes
Video shows Beirut flight bird strike
Report: Bkirki Holds Talks with Christian Leaders to 'Develop Ways to Demand
Election of President'
Report: Mashnouq to Hold 'Significant Political, Security Talks' during Visit to
U.S.
Report: French Defense Minister in Lebanon in April to Oversee first Shipment of
Weapons to Army
Sidon medical supplies warehouse shut
Report: Bassil Visits Gemayel to Discuss Extension of Security Officials' Term
Hostage killings unlikely to resume: Ibrahim
Report: 'Abou Anas' New Arsal Captives Mediator
Defense Minister Samir Moqbel Questions Opposition to Extension of Security
Figures'' Terms Given Regional Dangers
No Injuries as Hand Grenade Tossed in Miyeh Miyeh Refugee Camp
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
March 21-22/15
Khamenei denounces US 'bullying' of Iran
Netanyahu row casts doubt on Obama pledge to 'have Israel's back
France balks at the US-Iranian deal on five counts – not least with an eye on
its Gulf ties
Iran top leader: US wants to turn Iranians against Islamic rule
Iran deal or no deal, the global nuclear Pandora’s box has reached a far more
dangerous stage
Sarah Palin congratulates Netanyahu on re-election
Netanyahu's headache - Who will be Israel's next defense minister?
Yemen death toll rises to 137 in aftermath of suicide bombings against Shiite
mosques
US pulls remaining 100 special forces troops from Yemen: CNN
Meet Israel's new lawmakers
U.S. evacuating remaining 100 special forces troops from Yemen
India court clears 16 police of killing Muslims in 1987
Regional, international condemnation of Sana’a suicide attacks
Iranian President Rouhani: Final nuclear deal possible
Arab League seeking joint confrontation of terrorism: Bin Helli
Seven children die as broken heater sparks New York blaze
Denmark could face nuclear attack if joins missile shield: Russian envoy
Kurdish militant leader says armed struggle with Turkey ‘unsustainable’
45 dead in attacks on Syria Kurds celebrating new year
PKK chief: Armed struggle with Turkey 'unsustainable'
Jihad Watch Latest News
Canada: 17-year-old Muslim arrested for trying to join the Islamic State
Canada: Muslims guilty of conspiracy to murder in railway jihad plot
US man shot after machete attack on airport border agent
Iran’s Supremo: Introduce youth of US, Europe to “Islam of jihad”
Boston Marathon jihad murderer jury questionnaire: “Do you believe the ‘war on
terror’ unfairly targets Muslims?”
Islamic State posts names and addresses of 100 U.S. service members
Tunis museum jihadis wore belts packed with explosives to maximize deaths
Islamic State video purports to show Kurdish peshmerga beheadings
Get ready for Erdoğan’s caliphate, Turkey’s ruling party official says
U.S. fears Islamic State is making serious inroads in Libya
Islamic State claims Yemen mosque bombings, death toll now 142
UK: Convert to Islam jailed for plotting Lee Rigby-style beheading of British
soldier
Islamic State destroys fourth-century Mar Benham Monastery in Iraq
Islamophobes murder 30 in mosque bombings in Yemen — no, wait…
The Healing of the blind
By: Elias Bejjani
John 09:5: "While I am in the world, I am the light of the world".
We become blind not when our two eyes do not function any more and lose our
vision. No, not at all, this is a physical disability that affects only our
earthly body and not our Godly soul. We can overcome this physical blindness and
go on with our lives, while our spiritual blindness makes us lose our eternal
life and end in hell.
We actually become blind when we can not see the right and righteous tracks in
life, and when we do not walk in their paths.
We actually become blind when we fail to obey God's commandments, negate His
sacrifice on the cross that broke our slavery bondage from the original sin, and
when we refuse to abandon and tame the instincts' of our human nature, and when
we stubbornly resist after falling into the evil's temptation to rise to the
Godly nature in which we were baptized with water and the holy spirit.
Meanwhile the actual blindness is not in the eyes that can not see because of
physical ailments, but in the hearts that are hardened, in the consciences that
are numbed and in the spirits that are defiled with sin.
Ephesians 4:29: "Let no corrupting talk come out of your mouths, but only such
as is good for building up, as fits the occasion, that it may give grace to
those who hear"
When we know heart, mind and soul that God Himself, is LOVE, and when we
practice, honour and feel LOVE in every word we utter and in every conduct we
perform, we shall never be blind in our hearts, conscience and faith, even
though when our eyes cease to perform.
In its spiritual essence and core, what does love mean and encompass? Saint Paul
in his first letter to the Corinthians (13/01-07), answers this question: " "If
I speak with the languages of men and of angels, but don’t have love, I have
become sounding brass, or a clanging cymbal. If I have the gift of prophecy,
and know all mysteries and all knowledge; and if I have all faith, so as to
remove mountains, but don’t have love, I am nothing. If I dole out all my goods
to feed the poor, and if I give my body to be burned, but don’t have love, it
profits me nothing. Love is patient and is kind; love doesn’t envy. Love
doesn’t brag, is not proud, doesn’t behave itself inappropriately, doesn’t seek
its own way, is not provoked, takes no account of evil; doesn’t rejoice in
unrighteousness, but rejoices with the truth; bears all things, believes all
things, hopes all things, endures all things. Love never fails"
In every community, there are individuals from all walks of life who are
spiritually blind, lacking faith, have no hope, and live in dim darkness because
they have distanced themselves from Almighty God and His Gospel, although their
eyes are physically perfectly functional and healthy. They did not seek God's
help and did not repent and ask for forgiveness, although they know that God is
always waiting eerily for them to defeat the evil, get out his temptations and
come to Him.
On the sixth Lenten Sunday, our Maronite Catholic Church cites and recalls with
great piety Jesus' healing miracle of the blind beggar, the son of Timaeus,
Bartimaeus. This amazing miracle that took place in Jerusalem near the Pool of
Siloam is documented in three gospels; Mark 10/46-52, John 9/1-41, Matthew
20/:29-34.
Maronites in Lebanon and all over the world, like each and very faithful
Christian strongly believe that Jesus is the holy and blessed light through
which believers can see God's paths of righteousness. There is no doubt that
without Jesus' light, evil darkness will prevails in peoples' hearts, souls and
minds. Without Jesus' presence in our lives we definitely will preys to all
kinds of evil temptations.
The Miracle: Mark 10/46-52: " They came to Jericho. As he went out from Jericho,
with his disciples and a great multitude, the son of Timaeus, Bartimaeus, a
blind beggar, was sitting by the road. When he heard that it was Jesus the
Nazarene, he began to cry out, and say, “Jesus, you son of David, have mercy on
me!” Many rebuked him, that he should be quiet, but he cried out much more, “You
son of David, have mercy on me!” Jesus stood still, and said, “Call him. ”They
called the blind man, saying to him, “Cheer up! Get up. He is calling you!” He,
casting away his cloak, sprang up, and came to Jesus. Jesus asked him, “What do
you want me to do for you?” The blind man said to him, “Rabboni, that I may see
again.” Jesus said to him, “Go your way. Your faith has made you well.”
Immediately he received his sight, and followed Jesus in the way.
The son of Timaeus, Bartimaeus, the blind beggar who was born to two blind
parents truly believed in Jesus. His heart, mind and spirit were all enlightened
with faith and hope. Because of his strong faith he knew deep inside who
actually Jesus was, and stubbornly headed towards him asking for a Godly cure.
He rebelled against all those opportunist and hypocrites who out of curiosity
and not faith came to see who is Jesus. He refused to listen to them when they
rebuked him and tried hardly to keep him away from Jesus. He loudly witnessed
for the truth and forced his way among the crowd and threw himself on Jesus'
feet asking Him to open his blind eyes. Jesus was fascinated by his faith,
hailed his perseverance and gave him what he asked for. He opened his eyes.
John's Gospel gives us more details about what has happened with
Bartimaeus after the healing miracle of his blindness. We can see in the below
verses that after his healing he and his parents were exposed to intimidation,
fear, threats, and terror, but he refused to succumb or to lie, He held verbatim
to all the course details of the miracle, bravely witnessed for the truth and
loudly proclaimed his strong belief that Jesus who cured him was The Son Of God.
His faith made him strong, fearless and courageous. The Holy Spirit came to his
rescue and spoke through him.
John 9/13-12: "As Jesus was walking along, he saw a man who had been born
blind. 2 His disciples asked him, “Teacher, whose sin caused him to be born
blind? Was it his own or his parents' sin?” Jesus answered, “His blindness has
nothing to do with his sins or his parents' sins. He is blind so that God's
power might be seen at work in him. As long as it is day, we must do the work
of him who sent me; night is coming when no one can work. While I am in the
world, I am the light for the world.” After he said this, Jesus spat on the
ground and made some mud with the spittle; he rubbed the mud on the man's eyes
and told him, “Go and wash your face in the Pool of Siloam.” (This name means
“Sent.”) So the man went, washed his face, and came back seeing. His neighbors,
then, and the people who had seen him begging before this, asked, “Isn't this
the man who used to sit and beg?”
Some said, “He is the one,” but others said, “No he isn't; he just looks like
him.” So the man himself said, “I am the man.” “How is it that you can now see?”
they asked him. He answered, “The man called Jesus made some mud, rubbed it on
my eyes, and told me to go to Siloam and wash my face. So I went, and as soon as
I washed, I could see.” “Where is he?” they asked.“I don't know,” he answered.
Sadly our contemporary world hails atheism, brags about secularism and
persecutes those who have faith in God and believe in Him. Where ever we live,
there are opportunist and hypocrites like some of the conceited crowd that
initially rebuked Bartimaeus, and tried with humiliation to keep him away from
Jesus, but the moment Jesus called on him they changed their attitude and let
him go through. Meanwhile believers all over the world suffer on the hands of
ruthless oppressors, and rulers and men of authority like the Pharisees who
refused to witness for the truth.
But despite of all the dim spiritual darkness, thanks God, there are still too
many meek believers like Bartimaeus who hold to their faith no matters what the
obstacles or hurdles are.
Colossians 03:12: "Therefore, as God's chosen people, holy and dearly loved,
clothe yourselves with compassion, kindness, humility, gentleness and patience"
Lord, enlighten our minds and hearts with your light and open our eyes to
realize that You are a loving and merciful father.
Lord Help us to take Bartimaeus as a faith role model in our life.
Lord help us to defeat all kinds of sins that take us away from Your light, and
deliver us all from evil temptations.
In conclusion, let us never blind ourselves from knowing where is the light and
who is the light: “I came into this world for judgment, that those who don’t see
may see; and that those who see may become blind.” (John 09/39)
Al Siyassa's exclusive:
"Morsi plotted with Iran to create a Muslim Brotherhood copy of the
Revolutionary Guard"
Dr. Walid Phares/An explosive and exclusive report published by Kuwait's
daily al Siyassa reveals that the past Egyptian President Mohamemd Morsi
"plotted to seek support from the Iranian regime to establish a Pasdaran-like
Muslim Brotherhood "Islamic Revolutionary Guard in Egypt to paralyze and
undermine Egyptian military." Al Siyassa quoted a former chief intelligence in
Egypt who reported that "Morsi sought the expertise of the Iranian Pasdaran
during his visit to Tehran and asked the Ayatollahs to send close to 200,000
"tourists" to Egypt to revive an Islamist tourism movement." According to al
Siyassa, Pasdaran officers and trainers would be embedded within the 'tourists,'
and would be deployed to form the Ikhwan militias and equip them to become a
parallel to the army and eventually eliminate the high ranking officers of the
armed forces." The former intelligence chief told al Siyassa that the Egyptian
military opposed the strategic ties Morsi was establishing with the Iranian
regime, but without knowing how dangerous was Morsi's move. In a sense Mohamemd
Morsi and his Ikhwan were mounting a coup against the military and Egyptian
democracy, as Khomeini has done in 1979-1980 in Iran. Egyptians were very lucky
to have been able to rise against the Ikhwan regime in time and toppled what
could have been another Iran in the region.
Alberta
youth arrested on terrorism charges
Ryan Cormier and Alicja Siekierska, Edmonton Journal, March 21,
2015:
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/03/canada-17-year-old-muslim-arrested-for-trying-to-join-the-islamic-state
A 17-year-old boy arrested Thursday in Beaumont, Alta., has been charged with
attempting to leave Canada with the intention of joining Islamic State
extremists to commit murder. The youth, who cannot be identified, faces two
terrorism-related charges. He appeared before a justice of the peace Thursday in
Edmonton and was denied bail. He is scheduled to return to court April 9. The
RCMP’s Integrated National Security Enforcement Team arrested the youth. The
teen is charged with attempting to leave Canada on March 8 to join a terrorist
group and, on the second charge, to participate in terrorist activity. The youth
intended to commit an offence, “namely murder, in circumstances that constitute
terrorist activity,” his charges state. The youth attempted to leave Canada on
March 8. “Throughout this investigation, our focus remained on the safety and
protection of the public,” RCMP spokesman Sgt. Harold Pfleiderer said Friday.
“While it may be difficult for parents to come forward to the police, it is
important for families and communities to contact police as soon as they suspect
that an individual is being radicalized.”
Keep hoping.
ِreport in January said three members of Edmonton’s Somali-Canadian community
were allegedly killed while fighting overseas for Islamic State, also known as
ISIL or ISIS, last fall. In February, it was also reported that a young woman
who fled Canada to join ISIL last year had been recruited via an online course
about Islam run by a woman based in Edmonton.
Canada:
Muslims guilty of conspiracy to murder in railway jihad plot
“Via Rail terror trial: Jury finds Esseghaier guilty on 5 counts, Jaser
on 3,”
Alyshah Hasham, Toronto Star, March 20, 2015:
Chiheb Esseghaier and Raed Jaser both conspired to commit murder in support of
terrorism and participated in a terrorist group, a jury has found after 10 days
of deliberating. But only Esseghaier was found guilty for conspiring to derail a
Via rail passenger train heading from New York to Toronto – a plan that involved
drilling a hole into a railway bridge support under cover of darkness. The jury
remained deadlocked on Jaser’s charge after requesting additional clarification
around the law of conspiracy and reviews of testimony during their lengthy
deliberations. “Some of the members of the jury weren’t quite sure that Mr.
Jaser agreed to derail the train,” said Crown prosecutor Croft Michaelson of the
deadlocked charge in what he described as a legally complex case. He described
both men as “real, serious public dangers.”Jaser was found guilty on three
charges, Esseghaier on five. Both face potential life sentences at an upcoming
sentencing hearing. Michaelson said the Crown will consider whether to prosecute
Jaser again on the train plot conspiracy charge.
Jaser pleaded not guilty to all charges, and his lawyer told the jury Jaser
never truly agreed to any terrorist plot, he was simply trying to scam money off
Esseghaier and an undercover FBI agent. Esseghaier, who is unrepresented and has
refused to participate in the trial because he believes he should be judged only
under the Qur’an, not the “man-made” Criminal Code, had a not-guilty plea placed
on the record for him by Justice Michael Code….
Lebanese
officials mark Mother's Day with tributes
The Daily Star/Mar. 21, 2015
BEIRUT: Lebanese officials paid tribute to the women who raised them Saturday,
with some using Mother's Day to call for justice.
“If we want to honor her and be loyal to her unlimited love, we should do
justice to her,” Free Patriotic Movement party chief Michel Aoun posted on
Twitter.
Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk posted on Twitter a black and white photo of
him and his mother, writing: “To the mothers of Lebanon, the most beautiful of
mothers, to their patience, their firmness and their hearts from the pulses of
which we derive strength, life and joy, a salutation of unlimited peace, love
and gratitude.”Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi and Kataeb MP Sami Gemayel also
posted pictures of them and their mothers. “To my mother, my wife and all
mothers. Happy [Mother’s Day,]” read the caption under the image posted by Rifi,
which showed him kissing the head of his mother lying in what looked like a
hospital bed. Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi addressed in particular the
mothers of the Army’s fallen soldiers.
“Nobody understands the meaning of martyrdom like the mother who gave the life,”
he told NBN TV. “While every mother represents generosity, the martyr’s mother
is the lady of generosity, because she gave twice: once to life and once to the
nation.”
He went on to promise all mothers that justice will be served in the cases of
their martyred and kidnapped sons. “On this occasion, we pledge before you that
we will not accept any compromises or concessions at the expense of the martyrs’
blood, and that we will bring back all our captives held by terrorist groups
whatever the price of the sacrifices,” he said. General Security chief Maj. Gen.
Abbas Ibrahim, who heads a task force negotiating the release of the 25 abducted
servicemen being held by jihadi groups, also addressed mothers in a letter
through NBN. “A mother cannot rest calm when she has a missing son,” he said,
vowing to protect their captive sons. Former Telecoms Minister Nicolas Sehnaoui
posted a picture of a soldier with a sunset in the background that read: “The
Army is a father... and a mother. To the women of the Lebanese Army, happy
Mother’s Day.”Hezbollah’s MP Nawwar Sahili also paid tribute to mothers in a
speech at a ceremony celebrating Mother’s Day in the public library of Hermel,
in northeast Lebanon. “I salute all mothers, especially those who raised their
children on the line of resistance and sacrificed their [son] for the sons of
others to live with pride and dignity.”
Lebanon hostage killings unlikely to resume: General Security
chief
The Daily Star/Mar. 21, 2015/BEIRUT: The jihadis holding Lebanese servicemen
hostage on the outskirts of Arsal are not likely to resume killing them because
negotiations have made serious progress, General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim
said Saturday. “We have come a long way in the negotiations over the captive
servicemen, and no dramatic developments are anticipated,” Ibrahim, who is in
charge of the task force negotiating their release, told TV station NBN. “We
believe that the murders are now behind us.”He said the Lebanese team
responsible for the negotiations had not stopped working on the matter, and
succeeded in overcoming a great deal of obstacles with the kidnappers. “Any case
could see both breakthroughs and setbacks,” Ibrahim said. “But according to my
experience, the setbacks have become kind of unlikely.” At least 25 Lebanese
soldiers and policemen are still held captive by ISIS and the Nusra Front on the
northeastern Lebanese borders. So far, the Nusra Front has shot dead two
hostages, and ISIS has beheaded two others. Nusra has also released eight. The
hostages were kidnapped during a five-day battle with the Army in August.
Netanyahu's headache - Who will be Israel's next defense minister?
By JPOST.COM STAFF \
03/20/2015 22:33
Naftali Bennet and Avigdor Liberman, the two fierce political rivals who
have fought to solidify themselves as leaders of Israel's nationalist camp, are
now locking horns for the coveted position of defense minister in Benjamin
Netanyahu's next government, Channel 2 is reporting. Neither is willing at this
point to concede as coalition talks with Netanyahu's ruling Likud faction are
set to get underway next week. According to Channel 2, Liberman is signaling to
Netanyahu that he "doesn't have to enter the government" if he doesn't receive a
senior portfolio. There has been speculation that if Liberman is not given an
opportunity to at least hold on to his previous position of foreign minister, he
would quit politics in favor of a career in the private sector. If Liberman's
party, Yisrael Beytenu, sits out Netanyahu's government, the premier would be
left with a coalition that commands a slim, narrow majority. Despite Liberman's
bravado, political observers believe that his demand for the defense portfolio
is mere posturing, and that his real interest is to remain foreign minister.
Nonetheless, Liberman will insist that as foreign minister he oversees
diplomatic contacts with the American and European governments, an area of
responsibility that was given to then-justice minister Tzipi Livni during the
previous Netanyahu administration.
The competition for the foreign minister's job is stiff, with a number of senior
Likud figures also angling for the plum title, among them Yuval Steinitz and
Gilad Erdan. The coalition talks between the Likud and its right-wing
satellite parties is expected to be painstaking and difficult, especially
considering the personal enmity and tension that has characterized the
relationships between the party chairmen. Bennett, for his part, will seek
compensation from Netanyahu in light of what he views as Bayit Yehudi's
"sacrifice" of votes to the benefit of Likud. It was Netanyahu's rightward lurch
at the end of the campaign that compelled many Bayit Yehudi supporters to jump
ship and give their votes to Likud. Now, according to Channel 2, Bennett will
demand that his party receive the Defense Ministry as well as the Education
Ministry. Likud officials, meanwhile, say that Bennett has very little leverage
since there is no other coalition except for one led by Netanyahu that it would
find acceptable. That is why Netanyahu will insist that Bennett return to his
prior position as economy minister.
Iran deal or no deal, the global
nuclear Pandora’s box has reached a far more dangerous stage
By YONAH JEREMY BOB/03/21/2015
Doomsday may be closer than we think. With most of the world’s focus on the Iran
nuclear negotiations, little attention has been paid to a complete breakdown in
the push to limit nuclear weapons proliferation on a scale not seen in years.
Analysts may be correct that a deal which leaves Iran as a nuclear weapons
“threshold state” – or a state which has mastered the skills for making nuclear
weapons and need only decide to produce one – may expand a nuclear arms race in
the Middle East, involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others. But the proliferation
problem will be there and growing, deal or no deal.
The next most obvious problem is North Korea, which is estimated to have
somewhere between six to 10 nuclear bombs. It is also continuing to produce new
ones and is likely, based on its information exchanges and mutual visits with
Iran in recent years, to be illegally sharing its technology with other
dangerous new countries that may produce nuclear weapons.
The increasing North Korean threat along with China’s fast-expanding
conventional and nuclear forces may cause a new nuclear arms race, with Japan
and South Korea finally joining in.
Those countries may decide they can no longer rely on US protection alone,
particularly as China develops second-strike nuclear capabilities by virtue of
mobile nuclear missile launchers, as well as four Jin-class ballistic missile
submarines.
Until now, China had a “small” number of nuclear weapons, estimated at around
250 (as compared to the US’s arsenal – estimated at 4,700 to over 7,000,
depending on what is being counted) and all their weapons were in highly
vulnerable silos.
Because of that, there was an idea that Beijing would not anger Washington by
attacking its neighbors.
The rationale was that the US could potentially retaliate with a nuclear strike
on China and simultaneously knock out China’s vulnerable nuclear weapons, to
eliminate any retaliation by China against the US.
China’s potential new ability to launch a second or retaliatory nuclear strike
against the US from its harder-to-attack mobile weapons sites and submarines
mean the US would need to think much harder about intervening to protect its
Asian allies from Chinese adventurism.
Pakistan is another obvious problem, though with its already built nuclear
weapons arsenal – estimated at 100 to 120 – it strangely receives far less
attention than Iran.
Some of that limited attention is probably due to the impression that Pakistan’s
nuclear arsenal is only focused on one country, India, and that the rest of the
world can relax without needing to worry too much.
But Islamabad has and continues to develop a wide range of nuclear options,
including low-yield short-range weapons which might be easier for it to export
to terror groups or for terror groups to steal, with unending questions about
how secure the Pakistani government keeps its weapons.
But all of these threats may pale in comparison to the return of the Russian
nuclear behemoth.
Estimates on Moscow’s arsenal vary widely depending on what is being counted,
but even at the low 4,300 estimate (some are double that), the arsenal includes
a new nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile – which is said to be capable
of carrying 15 independently targeted medium warheads at a time – and is newly
formidable.
Moreover, a new fleet of Borei- and Severodvinsk-class submarines will allow
Moscow to keep ballistic missile submarines on permanent patrol for the first
time since the end of the Cold War.
Vladmir Putin’s Russia has also become far more fond of threatening nuclear
weapons use in a variety of scenarios, and has carried out war games in which it
levels nuclear strikes on Poland and Sweden.
Some of this may be to send a message of Russian disapproval of cooperation with
US-NATO missile defense and other plans, but it still is a risky and
destabilizing business.
As Russia more directly butts heads with the US and Europe, will its nuclear
power status allow it to restore its old empire beyond parts of Ukraine? Will
the US and Europe need to restore their Cold War military levels of preparedness
to fend off a Russian attack? Could these broken-down relations lead Russia to
be more aggressive in helping Tehran or even terror groups use smaller tactical
nuclear weapons or gain nuclear technology in a new destabilizing fashion? There
is another major problem.
True, at the height of the Cold War, Russia was estimated to wield more than
40,000 nuclear weapons, far more than now. Yet back then, Russia and the US were
extremely communicative about their nuclear strategy redlines, to avoid any
possible misunderstandings or surprises – such as occurred in the movie Dr.
Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.
That communication has broken down, and many of the newer, growing nuclear
powers – most worryingly China – have remained more opaque about their nuclear
strategies, leaving much more to chance in a high-stakes game.
Doomsday may not be here yet, but increasing nuclear proliferation and
aggressiveness without corresponding improving communication between the nuclear
powers mean that preventing it may be harder than ever before.
France balks at the US-Iranian deal on
five counts – not least with an eye on its Gulf ties
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis March 21, 2015
President Barack Obama failed to shift French President France Hollande from his
objections to the nuclear accord taking shape between the US and Iran in the
call he put through to the Elysée Friday night, March 30. US Secretary of State
John Kerry fared no better Saturday, when he met British, French and German
Foreign ministers in London for a briefing on the talks’ progress intended to
line the Europeans up with the American position. He then found, according to
debkafile’s sources, that France was not alone; Germany too balked at parts of
the deal in the making.
The French are demanding changes in five main points agreed between Kerry and
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif before the Iranians quit the talks Friday:
They insist that -
Iran can’t be allowed to retain all the 6,500 centrifuges (for enriching
uranium) conceded by the Americans. This figure must be reduced.
Similarly, the stocks of enriched uranium accepted by the US to remain in
Iranian hands are too large.
France insists on a longer period of restrictions on Iran's nuclear work before
sanctions are eased. It is pushing for a longer moratorium – 25 years rather
than the 15 years offered by the Obama administration – and guarantees at every
stage.
The main sticking point however is France’s insistence that UN sanctions stay in
place until Iran fully explains the evidence that has raised suspicions of past
development work on a nuclear warhead design. The Iranians counter that they
could never satisfy the French condition, because they would never be able to
prove a negative and disprove evidence of a weapons program that is forged.
There is no chance of Tehran ever admitting to working on a nuclear warhead – or
allow US inspectors access to suspected testing sites – because that would belie
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s solemn contention that Iran’s nuclear
program is solely for peaceful purposes and always has been.
debkafile’s Gulf sources disclose that the tough French bargaining position in
the nuclear stems partly from its intense ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf
nations, including the United Arab Emirates.
France maintains military bases in the Gulf, including air and unit units in
Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The emirates moreover have become the most profitable
market for the French munitions industry.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have been pushing Paris hard not to sign off on the text
shaping up between the Obama administration in Tehran because they believe it
would place their national security at grave risk.
This raises an interesting question: Why does Washington respect France’s right
to balk at its nuclear policy but disallows prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s
objections in the name of Israel’s security?
The answer is simple. It is easier to put the squeeze on the Israeli prime
minister than the president of France or Gulf rulers. Obama has hit on the
presentation of Netanyahu’s hawkish attitude as the main hurdle in the way of a
nuclear deal as a useful tactic for dealing with the spreading opposition to the
deal in Europe and the Persian Gulf.
Iran top leader: US wants to turn
Iranians against Islamic rule
By REUTERS/03/21/2015
DUBAI/BEIRUT - Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the United States
on Saturday of using economic pressure and "bullying" to try to turn Iranians
against Islamic rule, underscoring his long-held mistrust of Tehran's main
negotiating partner in nuclear talks.
Amid shouts of 'Death to America', Khamenei, who has the last word on all
matters of state, added in a speech that Tehran was negotiating with major
powers solely on the nuclear dispute and not about regional matters, an apparent
reference to conflicts and instability in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf.
His speech, which repeatedly hit out at Western sanctions, attacked "arrogant
powers" -- a reference to major Western countries -- for what he said was their
role in bringing about a fall in the oil price by more than half in recent
months.
Speaking in the north eastern city of Mashhad, he said "enemies" sought to turn
Iranians against the Islamic Republic, founded by a 1979 revolution that toppled
Shah Reza Pahlavi.
A man in the audience shouted "Death to America", a cry taken up by the crowd.
Khamenei continued: "Of course yes, death to America, because America is the
original source of this pressure. They insist on putting pressure on our dear
people's economy. What's their goal? their goal is to put the people against the
system."
The West suspects Iran of seeking the ability to produce nuclear weapons and the
United Nations has imposed stringent economic sanctions on Tehran; Iran says its
program is intended only for peaceful purposes, such as medical technology and
nuclear energy, and wants the swift lifting of sanctions.
The US’s ambiguous stance on Syria
Osman Mirghani/Asharq Al Awsat
Saturday, 21 Mar, 2015
I am surprised that people were surprised by the recent remarks made by the US
Secretary of State John Kerry about the necessity to negotiate with the Syrian
President Bashar Al-Assad as a means to guarantee a political transition and an
end to the war in Syria. The remarks were not unexpected given several previous
indications that we either ignored deliberately or did not want to believe. Over
the past four years of the Syrian crisis, the Western strategy, particularly
that of Washington, has remained ambiguous. No decisive intervention was made to
topple the regime and end the tragedy that has afflicted Syria and its people.
US President Barack Obama’s administration hesitated for a long time before
providing military support, despite insistence from friendly nations and appeals
from the Syrian opposition.
When the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) joined the fray in Syria,
positions started to become clearer, at least in Washington where it was
announced that the Obama administration had decided to make fighting ISIS its
priority while postponing consideration of the future of Assad’s regime. The
Obama administration remained silent on the need for Assad and his regime to
step down—an assertion it had made early in the crisis but that was never
translated on the ground—as things took a different tack towards reaching an
indirect “understanding” with Damascus against ISIS. It was obvious that
airstrikes by the US-led international coalition on ISIS positions would also
reduce pressures on Syrian government forces. It was claimed that the aerial
campaign would help government forces step up attacks on ISIS positions and
other extremist Islamist groups. At the time the Syrian government cheered for
the airstrikes, claiming that it was in the same trench with the US in the war
on terrorism. The Syrian government, of course, makes no distinction between the
factions fighting against it, lumping moderates and extremists together into one
category: “terrorists”. Thus, it used the “détente” to increase barrel bomb
attacks and retake several positions from the opposition while the international
coalition’s planes launched airstrikes on ISIS positions.
The US strategy on Syria, it became clear later, has sparked off disputes within
the Obama administration, leading to the resignation, or sacking, of Secretary
of Defense Chuck Hagel. In a letter to the White House, Hagel criticized what he
saw as ambiguity surrounding the Obama administration’s position towards the
future of the Assad regime, calling for a clearer position and warning that
procrastination and delaying the response to the Syrian crisis would cause
damage to the US strategy of eliminating ISIS. This was of course another
indication that Washington was considering the survival of the Assad regime as
an option in a bid to prevent Syria from falling into ISIS’s hands.
This was not only Washington’s position. Other players in the West and think
tanks close to decision-making circles adopted the same position. The leaking of
“Steps to Settle the Syrian Conflict,” a report prepared by the Swiss-based
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), kicked up a storm in the West last
November. The report concluded that the solution in the near future in Syria
lies in keeping the Assad regime in power instead of risking the fall of the
Syrian state into the hands of the “jihadists.” The conclusions reached by the
report were not the usual ones in that they aimed at achieving calm in Syria in
stages and in a region-by-region manner. This turned out to be exactly what the
UN Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura would propose later. In his proposal to
Assad, de Mistura called for achieving calm in stages starting with Aleppo. The
plan drew much criticism given that it meant that the international community
was beginning to believe that calm could be achieved through Assad and thus that
he was considered as part of the efforts for a solution.
But is this the whole story?
Of course not. The Syrian crisis intersects with the Iran nuclear talks. A deal
with Iran, it has been reported, would only be sealed if the US dismissed any
thoughts of toppling Assad’s regime, Tehran’s main ally in the region. This is
nothing new and it has been circulating for a while. It also suggests that the
Obama administration thinks Iran should have a role in the “war on terror”
whether in Syria or Iraq.
The region is sinking in a sea of shifting sands. I hope that we Arabs will wake
up and stop criticizing the positions of the US or any other country. Every
country has the right to work for its own interests. Arab states should stop
being dependent on others, bear their own responsibilities and protect their
interests. The shifts in the Syrian crisis serve as a model for several
variables taking place in the region that require new strategies aimed at
shaking off policies of infighting and skepticism and at beginning to rebuild
the decaying body that is the Arab world. This new strategy should begin by
forming a bloc of those Arab states wanting to deal with the imminent risks.
The burden of empire, the price of
leadership
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya
Saturday, 21 March 2015
Light years separate the depth of alienation and disillusionment felt by many
Arabs and Muslims today and the high expectations of the promised ‘New
Beginning’ in relations with the Arab and Muslim worlds that was embodied in
President Obama’s speeches in Ankara and Cairo in 2009.
Many in the Middle East were willing to suspend their entrenched cynicism and
even their harsh judgements of the United States just to partake in that
fleeting moment of enthusiasm ushered in by the young ‘transformational’
American president.
Barack Hussein Obama, came, saw, smiled, wowed and almost conquered. But it was
not meant to be. The infatuation was brief and the encounter was never
consummated. The American president was no Caesar, and when he realized that the
world he was beginning to discover was about to become more forbidden and more
unforgiven, he flinched.
The ties that bind, they are a-frying
Never before had so many allies of the United States in the Middle East been so
disenchanted with a sitting president. America’s relations with Egypt are
strained; its special relations with Israel are tense, the old alliance with
Turkey is fraying and the once close political and strategic cooperation between
the U.S. and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE is under mounting
pressure.
President Obama will bequeath to his successor a shattered and infinitely more
tormented Middle East than the one he had inherited
And after the tremendous American investment in Iraq since 2003 both human and
material, alienation and mistrust are setting in. To be sure, some of the men
hurtling the region towards the abyss are duplicitous, devious and merciless,
and some of the long term political, social, and economic trends are alarming,
yet what the U.S. did and did not do in the last few years in that tortured
region stretching from the Hindu Kush Mountains to the Maghreb is partly
responsible for its current tumults, wars and unfulfilled promises. By not
checking Iran’s influence in the region, and by not helping to stop the
atrocities of the Assad regime, the U.S. is alienating, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and
Israel. The Obama administration obvious eagerness to reach a nuclear deal with
Iran, is seen by these countries and others as a naïve willingness to go too far
on the road of accommodating a predatory regime.
Admittedly, the region that President Obama inherited from President George W.
Bush was mostly broken. The two longest wars in America’s history in Afghanistan
and Iraq have sapped its military and exposed the flawed political judgment of
its political leadership. Gaza was literally burning, from another brutal
pounding by Israel when Obama sat for the first time behind the Oval office. And
what transpired between Palestinians and Israelis later on was a slow process
towards more conflicts, more Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian lands
by Benjamin Netanyahu the duplicitous, race baiting Israeli Prime Minister, and
a corrupt and ossified Palestinian Authority that can barely functions and a
reckless in the extreme Hamas rule in Gaza. It is doubtful, that the President
will stick to his current threat that the U.S. will re-asses or re-evaluate its
positions and options regarding Israeli settlements, or seeking a resolution
from the Security Council about a two state solution based on the 1967 borders.
In past confrontations with Netanyahu, the president did flinch when he was in
the right morally and politically.
Some Arab autocrats, including those depending on American largess established
the kind of order and quiet associated with cemeteries, for others political
stagnation appeared to hide temporarily the tremendous explosions that will
happen later. Militant and jihadist Islamists were on the rise, and the ambers
of sectarianism were quietly smoldering. Iran was on the ascendency, and laying
down the necessary infrastructure for the realization of what it sees as its
‘manifest destiny’; regional dominance.
That was the week that was
A week in the life of the region exposes its violent fissures. From one end of
the Arab world to the other a long trail of blood connected innocent people
while contemplating Holiness in Mosques and admiring aesthetics in a Museum.
Islamist extremists killed more than 130 Zaydi Shiite worshipers during Friday
prayer in Sanaa, Yemen. Even mosques, have lost their sanctity. Similar
extremists stormed the Bardo National Museum in Tunis and massacred 20 foreign
tourists and 3 Tunisians, threatening the only democratic, albeit fragile polity
that had emerged from the long nightmarish season of Arab uprisings.
Within one week, the world continued to watch impotently the gradual slide of
Libya and Yemen towards civil wars. And as if to celebrate the fourth
anniversary of Syria’s calamitous war and its slow agonizing disintegration, the
lisping, fire breathing and bearer of barrel bombs Bashar Assad, decided to once
again send his air force to drop chlorine gas bombs on Syrian civilians. All the
while Iraq continued to drift in Iran’s orbit, with its political leadership
content to abdicate its responsibilities to Iran’s viceroy in Iraq and the
commander of the Shiite brigades (Iranians, Iraqis and Lebanese) General Qasem
Soleimani to lead the charge to ‘liberate’ Tikrit and other Sunni areas
controlled by the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) which took Sunni extremism to
unimaginable levels, thus heightening and deepening the sectarian strife in the
region. A sense of entitlement permeates this new-old and lazy Iraqi leadership.
More than ten years ago, Iraq officials expected the American military to
deliver to them a modern, functioning new state to rule and enjoy. Today, the
new masters, the Iranians and their Shiite legionnaires (is there a Persian
equivalent to the Turkish Janissaries?) are expected to fight on their behalf
and to deliver them from ISIS.
In the same week, an international economic conference was held in Sharm
El-Sheikh, to support Egypt, another Arab state suffering from a sense of
entitlement and the syndrome of ‘too big to fail’ in its ceaseless quest for
internal political and economic stability and elusive regional role. As a sign
of the new times, the major donors to Egypt are the UAE and Saudi Arabia, a fact
that explains Washington’s diminishing role in Egypt, and the growing
estrangement between Cairo and Washington.
To lead or not to lead, that is the question
President Obama, more than any previous president since the U.S. assumed world
leadership after WWII, is hobbled by what he sees as the limits of American
power. His exercise of military power has been limited, tentative and hesitant.
But more fundamentally, it seems that he does not believe that the U.S. is still
capable of achieving great things in the world by itself if necessary or by
leading coalitions. The ‘leading from behind’ during the Libya campaign and the
current limited air campaign against ISIS are emblematic of his leadership.
There is a widespread sense in the Middle East and beyond that this president is
reluctant to accept as a given that the sole superpower in the world has to bear
the burden of empire and be prepared when vital national security interests are
at stake to pay the price of leadership. I am not talking about an open ended
and potentially dangerous commitment to ‘bear any burden, meet any hardship…’ a
la President John F. Kennedy’s inaugural speech, but about the deliberate,
rational and cold exercise of political and military leadership in a world where
states like Russia, China, North Korea, Syria and Iran can and will threaten U.S
and allied interests through conventional and unconventional means.
And since European states, with the exception of France are reluctant or
unwilling to use military force, (it was U.S. leadership not European that
stopped the first mass killings of civilians on European soil since the
Holocaust, during the Balkan wars of the 1990’s) that means the President of the
United States has to have the mantel of leadership. President Obama’s aversion
to the use of military power, as evidenced by his retreat from his commitments
to strike the military assets of the Syrian regime following its use of chemical
weapons against Syrian civilians, approaches a religious dogma. His commitment
to withdraw military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan (and I believed that the
war in Iraq was unnecessary and the Afghan campaign was badly managed and
unnecessarily prolonged) did cloud his judgement about military surges with
timed exists, and leaving Iraq without pushing hard for a residual force;
decisions that were as unwise as allowing his red lines in Syria to be trampled
upon unpunished. Watching the way the Obama administration is managing Syria,
Iraq and Iran as well as the Ukraine crisis, one can say that America’s foes
don’t fear its power, and America’s friends don’t feel secure by its power.
What legacy?
President Obama’s dithering on Syria, and his misleading way of framing his
choices there as either doing nothing or invading with ‘boots on the ground’,
not to mention his unfulfilled threats and promises, his less than honest
pledges to help and train and equip the moderate Syrian opposition, have
contributed significantly to making Syria the worst man-made disaster in the
twenty first century. By now most people know the shocking statistics; more than
225,000 Syrian killed, almost 4 million refugees, and almost 8 million
internally displaced. When Assad used chlorine as a weapon against civilians,
few days ago, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. is ‘deeply disturbed’
and that the administration is ‘looking very closely into this matter and
considering next steps.’ Seriously? This is the same leader that CIA director
John Brennan said during this week that the U.S. does not want to see his regime
collapse, because this would raise ‘a legitimate concern’ and open the
possibility for ISIS and other Jihadists to march on Damascus. Is there a better
way to embolden a regime that continues to kill more Syrians than ISIS?
The combination of Obama’s refusal to intervene (to stop the killings, protect
the interests of Syria’s neighbors, most of whom are traditional friends of
America, and to guard against the spread of terrorism to Europe and the U.S) and
the boundless brutality of the Assad regime, has led to the rise of the
genocidal ISIS. By not hitting the Assad regime, the very magnet that attracted
ISIS and the foreign jihadists to Syria, and by not helping the moderate
opposition to fight ISIS and the regime together, ISIS was able to expand to
Iraq, a development that provided Iran with a historic opportunity to expand its
military and political influence in both Syria and Iraq.
As things are unfolding in the region, and as America’s ability and willingness
to exercise effective leadership to shape the present and influence the future
remain in doubt, one can safely say that President Obama will bequeath to his
successor a shattered and infinitely more tormented Middle East than the one he
had inherited.
The burden of empire, the price of
leadership
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya
Saturday, 21 March 2015
Light years separate the depth of alienation and disillusionment felt by many
Arabs and Muslims today and the high expectations of the promised ‘New
Beginning’ in relations with the Arab and Muslim worlds that was embodied in
President Obama’s speeches in Ankara and Cairo in 2009.
Many in the Middle East were willing to suspend their entrenched cynicism and
even their harsh judgements of the United States just to partake in that
fleeting moment of enthusiasm ushered in by the young ‘transformational’
American president.
Barack Hussein Obama, came, saw, smiled, wowed and almost conquered. But it was
not meant to be. The infatuation was brief and the encounter was never
consummated. The American president was no Caesar, and when he realized that the
world he was beginning to discover was about to become more forbidden and more
unforgiven, he flinched.
The ties that bind, they are a-frying
Never before had so many allies of the United States in the Middle East been so
disenchanted with a sitting president. America’s relations with Egypt are
strained; its special relations with Israel are tense, the old alliance with
Turkey is fraying and the once close political and strategic cooperation between
the U.S. and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE is under mounting
pressure.
President Obama will bequeath to his successor a shattered and infinitely more
tormented Middle East than the one he had inherited
And after the tremendous American investment in Iraq since 2003 both human and
material, alienation and mistrust are setting in. To be sure, some of the men
hurtling the region towards the abyss are duplicitous, devious and merciless,
and some of the long term political, social, and economic trends are alarming,
yet what the U.S. did and did not do in the last few years in that tortured
region stretching from the Hindu Kush Mountains to the Maghreb is partly
responsible for its current tumults, wars and unfulfilled promises. By not
checking Iran’s influence in the region, and by not helping to stop the
atrocities of the Assad regime, the U.S. is alienating, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and
Israel. The Obama administration obvious eagerness to reach a nuclear deal with
Iran, is seen by these countries and others as a naïve willingness to go too far
on the road of accommodating a predatory regime.
Admittedly, the region that President Obama inherited from President George W.
Bush was mostly broken. The two longest wars in America’s history in Afghanistan
and Iraq have sapped its military and exposed the flawed political judgment of
its political leadership. Gaza was literally burning, from another brutal
pounding by Israel when Obama sat for the first time behind the Oval office. And
what transpired between Palestinians and Israelis later on was a slow process
towards more conflicts, more Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian lands
by Benjamin Netanyahu the duplicitous, race baiting Israeli Prime Minister, and
a corrupt and ossified Palestinian Authority that can barely functions and a
reckless in the extreme Hamas rule in Gaza. It is doubtful, that the President
will stick to his current threat that the U.S. will re-asses or re-evaluate its
positions and options regarding Israeli settlements, or seeking a resolution
from the Security Council about a two state solution based on the 1967 borders.
In past confrontations with Netanyahu, the president did flinch when he was in
the right morally and politically.
Some Arab autocrats, including those depending on American largess established
the kind of order and quiet associated with cemeteries, for others political
stagnation appeared to hide temporarily the tremendous explosions that will
happen later. Militant and jihadist Islamists were on the rise, and the ambers
of sectarianism were quietly smoldering. Iran was on the ascendency, and laying
down the necessary infrastructure for the realization of what it sees as its
‘manifest destiny’; regional dominance.
That was the week that was
A week in the life of the region exposes its violent fissures. From one end of
the Arab world to the other a long trail of blood connected innocent people
while contemplating Holiness in Mosques and admiring aesthetics in a Museum.
Islamist extremists killed more than 130 Zaydi Shiite worshipers during Friday
prayer in Sanaa, Yemen. Even mosques, have lost their sanctity. Similar
extremists stormed the Bardo National Museum in Tunis and massacred 20 foreign
tourists and 3 Tunisians, threatening the only democratic, albeit fragile polity
that had emerged from the long nightmarish season of Arab uprisings.
Within one week, the world continued to watch impotently the gradual slide of
Libya and Yemen towards civil wars. And as if to celebrate the fourth
anniversary of Syria’s calamitous war and its slow agonizing disintegration, the
lisping, fire breathing and bearer of barrel bombs Bashar Assad, decided to once
again send his air force to drop chlorine gas bombs on Syrian civilians. All the
while Iraq continued to drift in Iran’s orbit, with its political leadership
content to abdicate its responsibilities to Iran’s viceroy in Iraq and the
commander of the Shiite brigades (Iranians, Iraqis and Lebanese) General Qasem
Soleimani to lead the charge to ‘liberate’ Tikrit and other Sunni areas
controlled by the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) which took Sunni extremism to
unimaginable levels, thus heightening and deepening the sectarian strife in the
region. A sense of entitlement permeates this new-old and lazy Iraqi leadership.
More than ten years ago, Iraq officials expected the American military to
deliver to them a modern, functioning new state to rule and enjoy. Today, the
new masters, the Iranians and their Shiite legionnaires (is there a Persian
equivalent to the Turkish Janissaries?) are expected to fight on their behalf
and to deliver them from ISIS.
In the same week, an international economic conference was held in Sharm
El-Sheikh, to support Egypt, another Arab state suffering from a sense of
entitlement and the syndrome of ‘too big to fail’ in its ceaseless quest for
internal political and economic stability and elusive regional role. As a sign
of the new times, the major donors to Egypt are the UAE and Saudi Arabia, a fact
that explains Washington’s diminishing role in Egypt, and the growing
estrangement between Cairo and Washington.
To lead or not to lead, that is the question
President Obama, more than any previous president since the U.S. assumed world
leadership after WWII, is hobbled by what he sees as the limits of American
power. His exercise of military power has been limited, tentative and hesitant.
But more fundamentally, it seems that he does not believe that the U.S. is still
capable of achieving great things in the world by itself if necessary or by
leading coalitions. The ‘leading from behind’ during the Libya campaign and the
current limited air campaign against ISIS are emblematic of his leadership.
There is a widespread sense in the Middle East and beyond that this president is
reluctant to accept as a given that the sole superpower in the world has to bear
the burden of empire and be prepared when vital national security interests are
at stake to pay the price of leadership. I am not talking about an open ended
and potentially dangerous commitment to ‘bear any burden, meet any hardship…’ a
la President John F. Kennedy’s inaugural speech, but about the deliberate,
rational and cold exercise of political and military leadership in a world where
states like Russia, China, North Korea, Syria and Iran can and will threaten U.S
and allied interests through conventional and unconventional means.
And since European states, with the exception of France are reluctant or
unwilling to use military force, (it was U.S. leadership not European that
stopped the first mass killings of civilians on European soil since the
Holocaust, during the Balkan wars of the 1990’s) that means the President of the
United States has to have the mantel of leadership. President Obama’s aversion
to the use of military power, as evidenced by his retreat from his commitments
to strike the military assets of the Syrian regime following its use of chemical
weapons against Syrian civilians, approaches a religious dogma. His commitment
to withdraw military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan (and I believed that the
war in Iraq was unnecessary and the Afghan campaign was badly managed and
unnecessarily prolonged) did cloud his judgement about military surges with
timed exists, and leaving Iraq without pushing hard for a residual force;
decisions that were as unwise as allowing his red lines in Syria to be trampled
upon unpunished. Watching the way the Obama administration is managing Syria,
Iraq and Iran as well as the Ukraine crisis, one can say that America’s foes
don’t fear its power, and America’s friends don’t feel secure by its power.
What legacy?
President Obama’s dithering on Syria, and his misleading way of framing his
choices there as either doing nothing or invading with ‘boots on the ground’,
not to mention his unfulfilled threats and promises, his less than honest
pledges to help and train and equip the moderate Syrian opposition, have
contributed significantly to making Syria the worst man-made disaster in the
twenty first century. By now most people know the shocking statistics; more than
225,000 Syrian killed, almost 4 million refugees, and almost 8 million
internally displaced. When Assad used chlorine as a weapon against civilians,
few days ago, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. is ‘deeply disturbed’
and that the administration is ‘looking very closely into this matter and
considering next steps.’ Seriously? This is the same leader that CIA director
John Brennan said during this week that the U.S. does not want to see his regime
collapse, because this would raise ‘a legitimate concern’ and open the
possibility for ISIS and other Jihadists to march on Damascus. Is there a better
way to embolden a regime that continues to kill more Syrians than ISIS?
The combination of Obama’s refusal to intervene (to stop the killings, protect
the interests of Syria’s neighbors, most of whom are traditional friends of
America, and to guard against the spread of terrorism to Europe and the U.S) and
the boundless brutality of the Assad regime, has led to the rise of the
genocidal ISIS. By not hitting the Assad regime, the very magnet that attracted
ISIS and the foreign jihadists to Syria, and by not helping the moderate
opposition to fight ISIS and the regime together, ISIS was able to expand to
Iraq, a development that provided Iran with a historic opportunity to expand its
military and political influence in both Syria and Iraq.
As things are unfolding in the region, and as America’s ability and willingness
to exercise effective leadership to shape the present and influence the future
remain in doubt, one can safely say that President Obama will bequeath to his
successor a shattered and infinitely more tormented Middle East than the one he
had inherited.
Report: French Defense Minister in
Lebanon in April to Oversee first Shipment of Weapons to Army
Naharnet/French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is scheduled to travel to
Lebanon in April to oversee the first shipment of weapons to the Lebanese army
as part of a deal with Saudi Arabia that was reached in 2014, reported al-Mustaqbal
daily on Saturday. It said that the minister is set to arrive in Lebanon on
April 20 for a two-day visit. He will oversee the first shipment of arms and
hold a series of meetings with a number of officials, including Speaker Nabih
Berri, Prime Minister Tammam Salam, and Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji.
Saudi Arabia and France inked the weapons deal, worth $3 billion, in Riyadh in
November.It also includes training programs for the Lebanese army run by the
French military. It aims to boost Lebanon's military as it struggles to contain
the rising tide of violence linked to the civil war in neighboring Syria.
Report: Bkirki Holds Talks with Christian Leaders to
'Develop Ways to Demand Election of President'
Naharnet/Head of the Maronite patriarchate in Bkirki held consultations on
Friday with a number of Christian leaderships over the presidential deadlock,
reported An Nahar daily on Saturday. It said that the talks focused on how to
“develop ways to demand the election of a president after it appeared that all
theoretical positions did not lead to holding the polls.”The consultations are
being held away from the media spotlight “in order to reach positions that
differ from the repeated pledges to elect a new head of state.” “The new stances
have varied and they include holding an international campaign to elect a
president and mobilizing the people to reach this end,” added An Nahar, saying
that two weeks will be given before final stand is taken. Observers said that
the consultations will be negatively affected by the negotiations over Iran's
nuclear program and the results of the Israeli elections that saw the reelection
of Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister. These two developments will affect the
capabilities of the U.S. administration's foreign policy, they noted. Lebanon
has been without a president since May when the term of Michel Suleiman ended
without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8
and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. The delay in
staging the election has forced it to become linked to foreign affairs, with
March 14 officials repeatedly claiming that Iran is hindering them.
Defense Minister Samir Moqbel Questions Opposition to Extension of Security
Figures'' Terms Given Regional Dangers
Naharnet/Defense Minister Samir Moqbel questioned the opposition of some
officials to the extension of the term of security figures, stressing that he
seeks the interests of the army, reported As Safir newspaper on Saturday. He
told the daily: “Those who oppose the extension are not aware of the conditions
the army is passing through.”“They do not know how the situation of the army
will be should quorum be lost at the military council,” he continued. On the
extension of the term of Army Intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Edmond Fadel, the
minister remarked: “We need him to continue in his post given the war against
terror.” “The most that this war needs is intelligence, so how can we leave the
position vacant?” stated Moqbel. The minister signed on Thursday a decree to
extend Fadel's term by six months. He defended his measure, saying that it comes
in accordance with his jurisdictions. Moqbel and the Free Patriotic Movement
were recently at loggerheads after FPM chief MP Michel Aoun decided to withdraw
confidence from him over the extension of the term of the head of the Higher
Defense Council, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Khair. The military positions in Lebanon are
suffering as a result of the months-long presidential vacuum in light of the
parliament's failure to elect a successor for Michel Suleiman. The vacuum also
threatens the position of Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ibrahim
Basbous who is set to retire in June. The tenure of Army Chief General Jean
Qahwaji is set to end in September. His term was extended for two years in
September 2013.
Report: Saniora to Present Testimony before STL on Monday
Naharnet/Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora is scheduled
to present his testimony before the Special Tribunal for Lebanon on Monday,
reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Saturday. Widely-informed sources told the
daily that the testimony “introduces a new phase of the trial.”“This phase may
be among its most important so far,” they added. They predicted that Saniora's
testimony and the expected one of Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid
Jumblat may be among the most significant in the trial. Jumblat is expected to
make his testimony later this year, probably in June, said al-Joumhouria. The
STL is looking into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
in a massive bombing in Beirut. A number of witnesses, including prominent
lawmakers and journalists, have so far presented their testimony at the trial
that kicked off in 2014. The March 14 camp has repeatedly accused Syria of being
behind Hariri's murder and the political testimonies have focused on the role
the Syrian regime played in Lebanon prior to 2005. The STL had so far indicted
five Hizbullah members of being linked to the crime. The party had denied the
claims, slamming the tribunal as an American-Zionist entity bent on destroying
the group.
Report: Bassil Visits Gemayel to Discuss Extension of
Security Officials' Term
Naharnet/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil held talks on Friday with head of the
Kataeb Party Amin Gemayel to tackle the extension of the term of security
officials, most notably the appointment of Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen.
Chamel Roukoz as army commander, reported al-Liwaa newspaper on Saturday.
Gemayel had asked Bassil if head of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun
was still seeking to run for the presidency, to which the minister replied yes.
The Kataeb chief responded: “We prefer that the president and army commander
share the same political affiliations, not the same family.” Roukoz is Aoun's
son-in-law and his main objective is to receive political consensus on his
appointment as army chief as part of a package for the appointment of other top
security officers, media reports had said earlier this week. Aoun has denied the
claims. Gemayel then reportedly informed Bassil that if Aoun withdraws from the
presidential race, then the Kataeb may agree to the appointment of Roukoz.
Bassil had sought Gemayel's support for the appointment of Roukoz in return for
appointing Imad Othman as head of the Internal Security Forces, said al-Liwaa.
Roukoz's tenure ends in October 2015 while the term of army commander General
Jean Qahwaji expires at the end of September.
Syndicated News
8 Things You Didn’t Know About Assyrian Christians
By Daniel Costa-Roberts
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/8-things-didnt-know-assyrian-christians/
Posted 2015-03-21 21
On NewsHour Weekend Saturday, we travel to Alqosh, a Christian town in northern
Iraq just 30 miles from the ISIS stronghold of Mosul. Alqosh was overrun last
summer by ISIS fighters and then recaptured with the help of Iraqi Christian and
Kurdish militias this past August.
Fighting to protect Alqosh is an Assyrian Christian militia known as Dyvekh
Nawsha. But who are the Assyrian Christians?
Here are eight things you should know about this ethnic minority group, whose
members are spread across the world.
Assyrian Christians — often simply referred to as Assyrians — are an ethnic
minority group whose origins lie in the Assyrian Empire, a major power in the
ancient Middle East.
Most of the world’s 2-4 million Assyrians live around their traditional
homeland, which comprises parts of northern Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. In
recent years, many have fled to neighboring countries to escape persecution from
both Sunni and Shiite militias during the Iraq War and, most recently, by ISIS.
Members of the Assyrian diaspora are spread out all over world, including
roughly 100,000 in the United States, according to a 2009 U.S. Census Bureau
survey.
The official language of the three main Assyrian churches is Syriac, a dialect
of Aramaic, the language Jesus would have spoken. Many Assyrians speak Aramaic
dialects, though they often speak the local languages of the regions where they
live as well.
Assyrians have been the victims of persecution for centuries, including the
Assyrian genocide, in which the Ottomans killed at least 250,000 Assyrians
during World War I. Iraqi Assyrians have faced increased persecution following
the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, including attacks on Assyrian churches — some
estimate that 60 percent of Iraqi Assyrians have fled the country since the Iraq
War began.
Tens of thousands of Assyrians in Northern Iraq have fled persecution at the
hands of ISIS, which demands that Christians living under its control take down
their crosses and pay the jizya, a tax on religious minorities. Those who do not
pay face a choice between exile and death. ISIS has also attacked Assyrian
villages, killing or imprisoning hundreds.
Assyrian leaders, describing ISIS’s campaign of violence against Assyrians as
genocide, have called on Western governments and international organizations to
intervene against ISIS and to provide aid for Assyrian refugees.
As part of an effort to rid their territory of pre-Islamic relics, ISIS
militants have destroyed ancient Assyrian artifacts at the Mosul Museum and
razed the remains of ancient Assyrian cities.
Assyrian groups have renewed calls for the creation of an Assyrian autonomous
region in Northern Iraq’s Nineveh Plains, a traditional Assyrian stronghold.
Iran’s Creeping Conquest of Iraq
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Al Sharq Alawsat
Sunday, 22 Mar, 2015
The battle to rid Tikrit of the terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) has revealed the depth of the Iranian military’s role in Iraq, as well as
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders’ authority over what have
been dubbed the Popular Mobilization forces, an alliance of Shi’ite militias.
Iran has sent forces, consultants and arms to Iraq. And its security leaders
have reiterated their view that they are the ones who are saving the Iraqi
regime and Baghdad.
A New York Times report said Iran has deployed rockets and missiles in Iraq,
while several Iraqi leaders have spoken out about a military deal struck with
Iran worth 10 billion US dollars.
This goes beyond temporary Iranian support for Iraq during its ordeal. It’s more
a plan by the Iranians to dominate and seize control of its oil-rich Iraqi
neighbor, which has geostrategic importance.
What has changed since September is that Iran can no longer count on the office
of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, who was its close ally, now that he’s been
constitutionally toppled.
Iran has therefore decided to instead be present in all Iraqi political,
military, partisan and religious posts.
The Iranian march towards Iraq and its domination over Baghdad’s decision-making
process may express Iran’s desire to secure its control over Syria and Iraq, and
this would automatically mean hegemony over the Arab Levant, as well as the
Gulf.
Iran grew concerned when Iraqi forces succeeded in forcing Maliki to exit power
at a time when the former premier was intending to renew his term for another
four years—had Maliki been successful he would have governed Iraq for twelve
consecutive years by resorting to absolute power that resembled the former
regime of Saddam Hussein.
The United States supported the plan to eliminate Maliki by cooperating with
Iraq’s political parties including Maliki’s Islamic Da’wa Party which turned
against him.
His comrade Haider al-Abadi was chosen to take over the premiership post.
It seems that eliminating Maliki emboldened the Iranian regime to directly
interfere in Iraq and obstruct the political reconciliation that Abadi pledged
to achieve with Sunni Arabs and Kurds.
The Iranians have also aborted the project to establish a National Guard force,
and instead have established a combination of extremist Shi’ite militias that
they call the Popular Mobilization forces, which are currently fighting in Sunni
areas.
The process of Iran’s seizure of Iraq resembles that of the Syrian occupation of
Lebanon—it started under the banner of the Arab Deterrent Force and later,
during the 1970s, Syrian troops resorted to confronting Palestinian militias.
Even after the defeat of forces hostile to the Lebanese state, the Syrian troops
stayed in Lebanon within the context of a comprehensive occupation that saw
political figures assassinated or marginalized.
The Syrians also controlled all aspects of the economy, established the party of
Hezbollah as their military arm and fully controlled Lebanon for a quarter of a
century.
Iranian intelligence and the IRGC currently have a substantial presence inside
Iraq and most of them are deployed under the slogan of confronting ISIS.
However the size of Iranian interference—in my view—confirms that Iran is not
present in Iraq for temporary military cooperation.
Comments from Iraqi leaders on the vast sums of weapons being bought from Iraq
by Iran only enhance these fears.
Since 10 billion dollars is a huge amount of money, and since Iran does not have
weapons that are worth this amount, these statements prove that Maliki’s
government funded Iranian activities in the region under different pretexts
which were then recorded as military purchases.
Truth be told, the amount of money paid by the Iraqis to the IRGC—regardless of
how large a sum it is—is not the real issue here.
What’s more important is Iran’s intentions concerning its presence in Iraq and
its role in managing Iraqi forces and controlling Iraqi political decisions. So
are we witnessing an Iranian conquest of Iraq?