Latest analysis, editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 01-02/15
Michel Aoun: On the warpath in Lebanon/Gulf News/Joseph A. Kechichian/June 01/15
Israel reassures Iran, Hezbollah: Mass drill is not cover for attack/Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/June 01/15
A United Front against the Extremists/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/June 01/15
Saudi Arabia remains steadfast in the face of terrorism/Salman Aldosary/Asharq Al Awsat/June 01/15
MEMRI/Israeli Druze Intellectual, Dr. Salman Masalha: Arab Spring Passed Over Monarchies Because They Are Better Suited To Nature Of Arab Societies/June 01-02/15
Dr. Sobhi Ghandour: The Arab Ummah Must Build Its Solidarity Around A Common Enemy/MEMRI/June 01/15

Jehad Watch Latest Reports And News
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Islamic State blows up natural gas pipeline in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula
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Muslims from across Turkey demand Hagia Sophia be turned back into mosque
Egypt: TV presenter gets 5 years prison for blasphemy

Lebanese Cabinet Fails to Agree on Arsal, Appointments after Extensive Debate
Naharnet /The cabinet failed Monday to reach an agreement over the thorny issues of Arsal's outskirts and the security appointments, postponing discussions to Thursday's session. “The ministers explained their viewpoints and the stances were thoroughly debated,” Information Minister Ramzi Jreij told reporters after the session. “The discussions will be continued in Thursday's session,” he added. Media reports said the conferees did not discuss the issue of the appointment of top security and military officials during the four-hour session and the debate remained focused on the situation in Arsal. “We cannot disregard national interests and the army is carrying out its duties to the fullest and it will decide what to do in Arsal,” Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi told reporters before the session. According to al-Jadeed television, Rifi warned during the session that “we have become before a four-party equation involving the army, the people, the resistance and 'Hashed al-Shaabi'.” “Let us unite to preserve the land and country and the current period does not allow anyone to disregard the national interest,” Rifi was quoted as saying. The Shiite-led Hashed al-Shaabi militia is a government-sanctioned paramilitary force that has played a key role in Iraq's fight against the Islamic State jihadist group. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has recently warned that “our people in Baalbek and Hermel” will not tolerate “the presence of a single terrorist in the outskirts of Arsal and the Bekaa,” calling on the state to act against the Islamic State and al-Nusra Front militants who are entrenched in Arsal's peripheries.
On Sunday, a number of Baalbek tribes announced the formation of what they called al-Qalaa Brigade, saying they stand ready to intervene militarily in Arsal's outskirts if Nasrallah gives them the greenlight.“There is a possibility for a technical, political and military solution for Arsal's issue,” Health Minister Wael Abou Faour said during Monday's session, warning that “Arsal might become another Ain al-Rummaneh,” in reference to the infamous incident that sparked Lebanon's 15-year civil war. “Dialogue between Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal movement should address the issue of Arsal,” he added.According to Future TV, Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb -- who like Abou Faour is close to centrist leader MP Walid Jumblat -- was supposed to raise the issue of “demarcating the border in Arsal” during the session. Media reports said should an agreement be reached over Arsal, the Lebanese army would be tasked with devising an appropriate plan. “During the session, Minister Wael Abou Faour tried to raise the issue of a girl who needs urgent medical care, but (Foreign Minister Jebran) Bassil interrupted him and refused that anything other than Arsal and the appointments be discussed,” MTV reported. “The conferees decided to postpone the discussion of the appointments to Thursday after (Prime Minister Tammam) Salam requested that it be separated from the issue of Arsal,” it said. In a statement after the session, Education Minister Elias Bou Saab, who is close to MP Michel Aoun, said “the issue is bigger than Arsal's outskirts and the appointments.” “Failure to approve the two issues is political obstruction and obstruction of the work of cabinet,” he lamented. Aoun has repeatedly warned the government against extending the terms of the army and Internal Security Forces chiefs, deeming it illegal.He allegedly backs the appointment of his son-in-law, Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, as army commander.Military chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji is set to retire on September 23. The top security posts in Lebanon are suffering due to the months-long presidential vacuum caused by the parliament's failure to elect a successor to Michel Suleiman whose tenure ended in May last year.

Papal envoy to Lebanon former Monsignor Dominique Mamberti Expresses Vatican's Grave Concern over State Institutions
Naharnet/Papal envoy to Lebanon former Foreign Minister Monsignor Dominique Mamberti stressed Monday that the Vatican is deeply concerned over the crises gripping Lebanon. “We hope that dialogue resolves the current situation and maintains stability of institutions,” Mamberti told reporters after talks with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil at the Bustros Palace. The Vatican's dispatched envoy described Lebanon as a “model in a difficult world conquered by violence.” “It is important to maintain coexistence.”He pointed out that he reiterated Pope Francis' stance regarding the situation in Lebanon, saying: “He is stressing the importance... of cooperation between its factions.”Mamberti said that he is in Lebanon to convey the pope's solidarity with the Lebanese. The Vatican is reportedly concerned over the yearlong presidential vacuum, deeming it a hazard that threatens the existence of Christians in the Middle East. Mamberti is reportedly in Lebanon to highlight the importance of electing a new head of state to safeguard Maronites and Christians. He arrived on Friday in Lebanon on a 7-day official visit as the Vatican is seeking to press forward the election of a new head of state amid the sharp rift among the political arch-foes over a consensual candidate. His visit comes in light of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi's visit to Paris in May, where he met with French President Francois Hollande. Lebanon has been without a president since May last year when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the election. Hizbullah's Loyalty to the Resistance and MP Michel Aoun's Change and Reform blocs have been boycotting the polls over the dispute.

Jumblat Calls for Approving Appointments in 'Single Package', Urges Compromise over Presidency
Naharnet /Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat called on Monday for an end to the various crises that have been crippling Lebanon's political and daily life, demanding that a solution be reached on security appointments and the vacuum in the presidency. He said in his weekly editorial in the PSP-affiliated al-Anbaa website: “Consensus must be reached on a complete package of appointments.”The appointments must be completely approved without allowing one side to impose its conditions over another in order to avert ministerial paralysis, he explained. Regarding the presidential vacuum, the MP stressed: “It is time to end futile squabbles over this issue.” All sides must resort to a settlement in order to agree on a compromise candidate to end the crisis, which will consequently restore authority to the constitution and state institutions, added Jumblat. “The current local and regional circumstances have proven that there is difficulty for any of the major candidates to achieve their goal of becoming president,” he noted. “There is therefore no escape from reaching a settlement and agreeing on a compromise candidate” otherwise Lebanon is forever destined to remain at this impasse, argued the PSP chief. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor.Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

Berri Vows to Defend Cabinet amid Differences over Arsal, Appointments
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri has pledged to defend the government over fears that it would collapse due to differences between the rival March 8 and 14 alliances on a military solution on the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal and the appointment of top security and military officials. “I will defend the cabinet with all my strength,” Berri told his visitors in remarks published in local newspapers on Monday. “I will be at the forefront of those defending it,” he said. “The issue of Arsal is being tackled. The army launched its measures in some of its neighborhoods,” Berri was quoted as saying. “Its case as a town is one thing and its outskirts is another … The army is responsible for its security,” he stated. Referring to militants based on Arsal’s outskirts, Berri said: “It is the right of the state, the army, the people and the resistance to liberate any occupied inch of Lebanese territories in the south, east, or even in the west toward the sea, and not to keep the occupation. I am with the resistance in any occupied place.”Cabinet ministers from Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement, which are members of the March 8 alliance, have been calling for the army to oust al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front and Islamic State group jihadists from Arsal's outskirts. But several March 14 coalition ministers have rejected such a move. Asked by his visitors on another dispute on the military and security appointments, Berri reiterated that he backed such measures. “But if these appointments do not take place, then the extension is necessary to avoid vacuum,” he said. The cabinet is set to tackle the issue during a session on Monday. FPM chief MP Michel Aoun has repeatedly warned the government against extending the terms of the army and Internal Security Forces chiefs, deeming it illegal. He allegedly backs the appointment of his son-in-law, Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, as army commander. Military chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji is set to retire on September 23.

Report: Term of Basbous to be Extended by Three Months in Attempt to Delay Cabinet Collapse
Naharnet/The term of Interior Security Forces chief Major General Ibrahim Basbous could be renewed for three months to end the controversial appointments crisis that is threatening to submerge the state into void, media reports said Monday. As Safir newspaper reported that the political arch-foes are seeking to agree on the extension of Basbous' term by three months to postpone the controversial crisis until September, when the term of Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji ends. The two deadlines then could be discussed as one package, the daily reported.Basbous is set to retire on June 4. Sources close to Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, who eminently rejects the renewal of high-ranking security officials' terms and demands the appointment of new figures, told As Safir that the Change and Reform bloc will not agree on such a proposal. Aoun, according to the sources, had been promised that his son-in-law and Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz would be appointed as army chief if he facilitated the appointment of a new ISF chief. However, the FPM chief also rejects the suggestion as “he doesn't trust their pledges and fears that he might be tricked.”The military posts in Lebanon are suffering as the result of the months-long presidential vacuum in light of the parliament's failure to elect a successor for Michel Suleiman whose tenure ended in May last year. The FPM chief has previously bluntly rejected any attempts to extend the terms of high-ranking security and military officials, threatening to resign from cabinet. Media reports had said that Aoun's main objective is to receive political consensus on the appointment of Roukoz as army chief as part of a package for the appointment of other top security officers. Aoun however denied that he had made such a proposal. Roukoz's tenure ends in October. As Safir reported that Hizbullah, Aoun's staunch ally, will support the FPM in any decision it takes concerning the appointments limbo. “The cabinet will automatically be paralyzed if Hizbullah and FPM ministers boycotted its sessions,” sources close to the March 8 coalition told the daily.
Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq, who has been insisting on his right to name the new ISF chief, told As Safir that he has no proposals to resolve the crisis. “I have nothing so far and contacts failed to reach a breakthrough,” Mashnouq stressed, pointing out that he “will take the right decision at the right time.”Information Minister Ramzi Jreij told al-Liwaa newspaper that contacts are ongoing to defuse tension and resolve the crisis, noting the cabinet shouldn't be paralyzed over a matter that could be adjourned.

Michel Aoun: On the warpath in Lebanon
June 01, 2015/Gulf News
Joseph A. Kechichian Senior Writer
War of words between FPM leader and defence minister as political stalemate continues
Beirut: General Michel Aoun on Sunday predicted the break-up of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) if it did not mobilise against Islamist militants, allegedly entrenched in the northern Sunni stronghold of Arsal and the surrounding Lebanese border towns along the Syrian frontier. Livid at being ignored by senior officials, including Prime Minister Tammam Salam and Defence Minister Samir Moqbel, Aoun unleashed his wrath against the armed forces and anticipated its destruction because its leaders were apparently reticent to deploy it where he wanted the LAF to make its presence felt. “If the Army isn’t used” to subdue Arsal, said, “it will be like a kitchen knife that will eventually rust and deteriorate.” Ironically, he spoke in front of a minuscule audience of Zahle residents who visited him in Rabieh, and said that the military would “lose its role” in Lebanon if it doesn’t “liberate or contribute to liberating” Arsal. Although the citizens of Arsal have consistently backed the LAF and called for its commanders to do what they deem is in the best interests of the state, Aoun played the desk-bound general, as he called on Beirut “to liberate the outskirts [of Arsal] from the clutches of extremists.”Aoun was parroting Hezbollah officials who itched for the LAF to open a new internal front that would mimic the June 2013 Abra attacks in Sidon, even if LAF Commander Jean Qahwaji was adamant not to repeat what was a mere tactical victory that became a second strategic blunder.
Hezbollah fighters deployed in Syria, more precisely in the Qalamoun area that abuts Lebanon’s eastern border, are looking for help as a number have fallen amid bloody clashes. In fact, there is a great fear that extremists from Daesh, Al Nusra Front and similar groups, will sweep through Lebanese Shiite villages along the border, which prompted Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah to declare that his group would try and eliminate the militants if the Lebanese state failed to do so. Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) members picked up the tempo although it was strange for a former commander of the LAF, someone who knew the institution’s strengths and weaknesses, to assail it with such fanaticism. In reality, and in addition to doing Hezbollah’s bidding, Aoun was on the warpath because Defence Minister Moqbel derided him last week stating that he would fulfil his duties without paying too much attention to what the general who deserted his troops in 1990 said.
Infuriated by Moqbel’s audacity, Aoun labelled the minister of being ‘ignorant’ of legal texts, asserting that the sitting minister “commits a lot of mistakes and we hope that he doesn’t go on like this and also that others don’t follow his [lead].” Earlier, Aoun called on Moqbel to resign if he was unable to appoint a replacement for Qahwaji, whose term expires on September 23, 2015. In the absence of a president of the republic, who would usually make security level appointments, the FPM insisted that the terms of senior officers should not be extended, even if the FPM deputies voted to renew their own mandates in parliament… twice.
The Aoun comments upset many Lebanese, many of whom support the LAF leadership. On Saturday, Raymond Eskander, a local engineer, donated a million dollars to a special army fund established to support the children of heroes who fell in Nahr Al Bared and other fronts. That contribution echoed loud and clear among those who mattered while political elites exchanged warped opinions about imaginary threats.

Lebanese Army receives US missile shipment
The Daily Star/Jun. 01, 2015/BEIRUT: A shipment of U.S. weapons pledged to the Lebanese Army arrived Monday at Beirut airport, as Lebanon continues to battle jihadis along its borders. A statement released by the Army said that the shipment included a number of TOW anti-armor missiles, along with their respective launching pads. U.S. weapons are being delivered to the Lebanese Army on a regular basis, though not all shipments are announced. The weapons delivery comes as the Lebanese Army is assessing the possibility of liberating the outskirts of the northeastern town of Arsal from jihadi militants. Hezbollah, currently fighting alongside the Syrian army against Islamist militants in the border region of Qalamoun, has warned that its fighters would expel jihadis from Arsal’s outskirts if the state failed to do so. Militants have been holed up in the mountains surrounding Arsal since spring 2014, when they were driven by Hezbollah and the Syrian army from major Qalamoun cities. While the U.S. has donated more than a billion dollars in aid to the Lebanese Army over the last decade, most previous donations had been non-lethal equipment, including armored personnel carriers, light aircraft and communication systems. Last February, a U.S. weapons shipment included over 70 M198 Howitzers as well as 26 million rounds of ammunition including small, medium and heavy artillery rounds. In January, the U.S. delivered dozens of brand new armored Humvees to help protect Lebanese soldiers.

Report: Mossad informed Cyprus of impending Hezbollah attack
Liad Osmo/Ynetnews/Published: 06.01.15/Israel News
Kuwaiti newspaper claims Mossad followed suspect for some time, tapped his phone and informed Cyprus authorities of possible attack. The Kuwaiti newspaper Al Jarida quoted exclusive sources who said that the Mossad passed information to authorities in Cyprus that led to the arrest of a Lebanese-Canadian individual last Friday after two tons of ammonium nitrate was found in his basement and he was accused of planning terror attacks on Israeli sites using the chemically explosive material. The arrested man is also suspected of working with Hezbollah in Lebanon and even being in contact with the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Sources cited in the Al Jarida report claimed that the Mossad had closely followed the man's movements for some time after receiving a tip that he was planning an attack. Al Jarida also cited the sources saying that the suspected Hezbollah operative was scouting out Israeli targets in Larnaca and that he was seen just meters from the house of the Israeli ambassador to Cyprus. According to the newspaper, the Mossad informed authorities in Cyprus only after they knew that the man had acquired the massive amounts of ammonium nitrate. Additionally, an Israeli source told Al Jarida that the Mossad was listening in on the suspect's phone conversations, including those of a personal nature made while in Cyprus.

Israel reassures Iran, Hezbollah: Mass drill is not cover for attack
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/Published: 06.01.15/ Israel Opinion
Analysis: Jerusalem sends calming messages to increasingly edgy enemies as it embarks on five-day drill, says measures are purely defensive.
Israel has in recent days sent calming messages to Iran and Hezbollah, Ynet has learned, stressing that the drills being held this week across the country are purely to practice emergency situations. The messages aim to prevent a mistaken assessment of Israeli intentions, given the current difficulties experienced by Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria, and the possibility of a nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers at the end of June. The Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah intelligence agencies have undoubtedly seen the preparations for the exercise, and Israel is concerned that they will interpret it as Israeli preparations for a surprise attack. Western intelligence analysts recently noticed a growing nervousness among the Hezbollah and Tehran leaderships. The nervousness is likely to lead to assessments that Israel could exploit the situation in Syria and Lebanon to "kill two birds with one stone" - torpedoing the nuclear deal and at the same time removing a real threat to the Israeli home front, in the form of the tens of thousands of rockets and missiles that Hezbollah possesses.
It seems these concerns ahead of the start of the largest annual Emergency Exercise of Israel, "Turning Point 15", which begins today. One source of added concern is that this is the first time that a major drill is being conducted simultaneously by the air, land and sea branches of the IDF – including the simulation of a large-scale conflagration in the north of Israel. Iran and Hezbollah have not hidden their concerns about the drill, even going so far as to make them public. For example, last week Rahim Safavi, national security adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that 80,000 Hezbollah rockets and missiles would destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa if Israel dared to attack Lebanon. In addition, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has made three speeches recently, itself a telling sign of not inconsiderable nervousness among the organization’s leadership. The speeches only mentioned Israel in a footnote, while in it was the main focus in previous speeches to mark the anniversary of Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon. This can be interpreted to mean that for now Hezbollah is signaling that it has no intention of attacking Israel and that its main concern is Islamic State. But the speeches do also reveal some fears on Hezbollah’s part that the problems apparently facing the Assad regime and the organization’s members fighting alongside it may give Israel a sense that this is an unmissable opportunity to get rid of the gravest threat to its national security and the physical safety of its people. This is somewhat of a growing mutual concern, given the regional instability; in Israel, too, there are those who fear that Hezbollah, in a desperate move to divert attention from its failures in Syria, could ignite a war with Israel. As such, Israel has transfers open and diplomatic messages to Lebanon - and indirectly to Iran – that the drills being conducted this week are for purely defensive purposes, and are not a "cover story" that disguises Israel's true intentions for an attack. Israeli officials have stressed in background talks and through diplomatic messages that the drill is held every year and that it was planned well in advance, along with the IDF drills being held in parallel. Israel maintains that the decision to hold two parallel drills came in order to take maximum advantage of resources and to maximize budgetary savings. If the exercises were to be conducted separately, Israel says, the total cost resulting would be much higher due to the mobilization of IDF reservists for both exercises.

A United Front against the Extremists
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat
Sunday, 31 May, 2015
It is no coincidence that in some Western countries, whose constitutions clearly stipulate protecting freedom of expression and political affiliation, neo-Nazi groups are banned without exception, both in terms of adherence and practice, and that those who violate this law are punished. Though it may not seem that way to some, this is not in fact a case of hypocrisy or even a retreat from respecting individual freedoms.
Nazism is banned because it is an extremist, fascist, nationalist ideology that represents a direct threat to the nation. Its own bloody history is relatively recent, and its fires still burn under the ashes of the destruction it wrought during the last century. Extremist ideas are present everywhere, but since Nazi extremism is very dangerous, liberal countries that cherish freedoms above all else have decided not to tolerate it.
In the Middle East, our version of nationalist fascism is religious extremism, which is just as dangerous and destructive. Most people who belong to extremist religious movements are misled and naïve, truly believing that extremism elevates the status of their own religion above all others and complements their duties as believers.
Nazis believe in elevating the white race above all others. The madness of Nazism resulted in the complete destruction of large parts of Europe, with 60 million people killed in the process. After this disaster, the majority took it upon itself not to allow this extremist ideology to dominate in their societies ever again. One can be religious, patriotic and nationalistic without being committed to eliminating others.
Right now there is a fear that we in the Middle East are at the beginning of a road to a similar kind of destruction because we have allowed extremists to impose their agendas on our societies, intimidate wise clerics, attract opportunists, and exploit history to seek vengeance against others—not to mention being shamelessly selective regarding religion and choosing whatever suits their interests. Let there be no doubt that we are fully aware of the seriousness of the situation these extremists are dragging us into.
Take the lessons we learned from Al-Qaeda not long ago. In the 1990s and during the first decade of this century, we realized that we could not allow Al-Qaeda and other similar groups to spread their ideas, recruit young people, and attempt to dominate the cultural and political landscapes by using sectarian slogans.
Confronting these groups is everyone’s responsibility. Governments especially have major roles to fulfil here, their core task being to provide protection from the evils of extremist groups that operate across different borders in the region.
What is happening in Syria and Iraq represents achievements for both Sunni and Shi’ite extremists. The current collective murder and displacement we have recently witnessed is unlike anything in our history, and the massive destruction is beyond anyone’s imagination.
We are also aware of the politically motivated attempts by some governments to exploit this situation in order to achieve their own aims, with the extremist groups functioning as proxies across the region. Fighting and rejecting these groups is thus the collective responsibility of both governments and individuals.
Extremists have succeeded at confusing people’s perceptions regarding what is just and what is unjust, who is friend and who is foe. They are also attempting to divide people by categorizing them according to sect, ethnicity, as well as good and evil—to the extent that ideas of alternative identity have sometimes superseded loyalty to one’s country, something that is supposed to take precedence over one’s allegiance to even the tribe or the sect, and ensures everyone has the same rights and responsibilities.
Amid this poisonous atmosphere, it is the concept of patriotism that is most under threat, and not individual groups and minorities as some think. Destroying the civil ladder and dividing societies harms the backbone of the state and its overall structure. However, persecuted groups always survive no matter how besieged, pursued or displaced they become. States have collapsed, but these groups have endured throughout the centuries.
Dangerous extremism is expanding, and it requires serious restraints. It is not acceptable for a university teacher, mosque preacher, or government employee to incite against certain social categories, and the government bears the ultimate responsibility for such acts because they employ these people.
Meanwhile, governments themselves refuse any hint of betrayal and punish whoever violates their laws. The extremists, on the other hand, whether they know it or not, are destroying the state’s overall structure from its very base. They are more dangerous to society than foreign enemies, who fail when people are united and succeed only when there are domestic disputes and divisions.
What necessitates a law that criminalizes racism and sectarianism is the collective stance of the religious clerics, intellectuals and social leaders who voiced support for unity and considered the recent suicide bombings at Shi’ite mosques in Saudi Arabia as attacks against all of them. Dozens of writers, thinkers and people of conscience wrote, protested and spoke out in condemnation of the attacks.
This was the biggest solidarity campaign Saudi Arabia has ever known. And, certainly, the Saudi King’s laudable statement against extremism last week encouraged this strong collective voice of condemnation. These examples of vociferous rejection of extremism have effectively rubbished the extremists’ claims about their popularity and influence, and confirmed that the state can lead a project to eliminate extremism before it begins to spread its rot through society’s strongest and most crucial pillar: its youth.