LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 15/15
Bible Quotation For Today/You must say, "His disciples came
by night and stole him away while we were asleep
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 28/11-15: "While they
were going, some of the guard went into the city and told the chief priests
everything that had happened. After the priests had assembled with the elders,
they devised a plan to give a large sum of money to the soldiers, telling them,
‘You must say, "His disciples came by night and stole him away while we were
asleep."If this comes to the governor’s ears, we will satisfy him and keep you
out of trouble.’So they took the money and did as they were directed. And this
story is still told among the Jews to this day."
Bible Quotation For Today/You were ransomed from the futile
with the precious blood of Christ
First Letter of Peter 01/17-21: "If you invoke as Father the one who judges all
people impartially according to their deeds, live in reverent fear during the
time of your exile. You know that you were ransomed from the futile ways
inherited from your ancestors, not with perishable things like silver or gold,
but with the precious blood of Christ, like that of a lamb without defect or
blemish. He was destined before the foundation of the world, but was revealed at
the end of the ages for your sake. Through him you have come to trust in God,
who raised him from the dead and gave him glory, so that your faith and hope are
set on God."
Latest analysis, editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on April 14-15/15
The Middle East Turmoil and Israel's Security/Efraim
Inbar/ISN/April 14/15
Hold the cheers and boos on the Iranian ‘deal’/BOB RAE/The Globe and
Mail/April 14/15
A Political Decisive Storm/Salman Aldossary /Asharq Alawsat/April 14/15
Russia gave US and its allies a hard slap in the face/Alex
Fishman/Ynetnews/April 14-15/15
Why Putin is playing friendly with
Iran/Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/April 14/15
Lebanese Related News
published on April 14-15/15
Lebanese actor Issam Breidy laid to rest in ‘wedding’ ceremony
Pioneering Lebanese dramatist dies
Lebanese playwright Raymond Gebara dies at 80
Lebanese expats fear repercussions of Hezbollah remarks
2003 attack against Future TV scrutinized at STL
Hezbollah’s anti-Saudi tirade won’t help Lebanon
Lebanon police arrest key ISIS militant in Baalbek
Israeli mine blast wounds south Lebanon farmer
Saudi Arabia backs Future, Hezbollah dialogue
Moqbel hosts Italy Army chief, STL head
Lebanon welcomes Egypt aid plane for refugees
Aoun to fight against extending Kahwagi’s ter
Gunfire heard as Israeli forces comb Lebanon border
Hezbollah denounces STL charges against Al-Jadeed reporter ahead of trial
Have we learned?
Man killed, another wounded in Arsal shooting
Lebanese expats feel threatened after Hezbollah remarks: report
Miscellaneous Reports And
News published on April 14-15/15
U.S. Senate foreign relations leaders reach deal on Iran bill
UN imposes arms embargo targeting Yemen Houthis; Russia abstains
Saudi ‘constance’ in its Yemen policy
Israel: Russian decision on S-300 anti-missile system proves dangers of Iran
deal
U.N. arms embargo victory for Yemenis: Spokesman
Israel's "dismayed" at S-300 missile deal with Iran: Netanyahu
U.S. puts sanctions on Yemen's Houthi rebels
Obama would sign current version of Senate compromise on Iran bill: White House
White House: Obama could accept revised bill on Iran nuclear vote
Obama tells Congress he plans to remove Cuba from terrorism list
Houthis on back foot in Aden: Saudi Defense Ministry
UN confirms new push for Syria talks, Iran to be invited
Obama says foreign fighters in Iraq must respect its sovereignty
EU says over 7,000 migrants rescued off Italy since Friday
Barrel bombs rain down on Aleppo
Obama offers Iraq $200M in humanitarian aid
Germany's Steinmeier says too early to reward Iran
ISIS loses ground in Syria's Yarmouk camp: Palestinian sources
ISIS takes its fight to Russia’s backyard
Iraqi forces launch counter-attack against ISIS in Anbar
Russia reaps early benefits of Iran nuclear deal
Jihad Watch Latest News
New Jersey: Muslim screaming “Allahu akbar” throws lit firecrackers at synagogue
Seven Muslims from France in jihad suicide attacks for the Islamic State
UAE: Indian man charged with insulting Islam on Facebook
Afghan president admits he’s losing troops to Islamic State
Pentagon says Islamic State has lost 25% of its territory
Muslim from Jamaica detained in Suriname, was trying to join Islamic State
Kenya: Imam charged with recruiting youths to jihad mass murder group
Lebanese actor Issam Breidy laid to rest in ‘wedding’
ceremony
The Daily Star/Apr. 15, 2015
FAITROUN, Lebanon: Lebanese actor Issam Breidy was laid to rest Tuesday in his
Mount Lebanon hometown as relatives and colleagues bid farewell to the
multitalented star who was killed in a tragic car crash over the weekend.
Actors, journalists, officials and residents of Faitroun flocked to the St.
Georges Pastoral Church to pay their respects to Breidy, who was 35.
Wissam Brediy, Issam’s brother and TV host, had asked everyone to celebrate the
actor’s life. He recalled, with swollen eyes, how close he was to his brother.
“For 33 years we accompanied each other every day and every second,” he said,
addressing the gathering. To celebrate his brother’s life he said the funeral
ought to be turned into a wedding.
Some mourners wore white along with traditional black funeral garb, in
compliance with Wissam’s request. Others carried white roses and photos of the
late actor. A red carpet was also laid out in honor of Breidy.
Wissam said he was overwhelmed by the support the family has received from
people of all walks of life who came to show the departed Issam their love. “I
am happy today,” he said. “I consider Issam as an expatriate who got a job offer
and left the country. He got a job offer from God so that he can be one of His
soldiers in the sky.”
Throughout the ceremony, Breidy’s mother Georgette was seen resting her head in
her hands while holding her son’s picture. Next to her sat Marianne, Issam’s
sister, who wept during the service. The family appeared devastated over the
death of their son.
Breidy died early Sunday when his car overturned at the Dora bridge, just north
of Beirut. Breidy was reportedly driving on the bridge toward the Nahr al-Mot
area when his black Lexus hit a concrete barrier and overturned. According to
media reports, he was thrown in front of the car and struck his head on the
pavement.
Breidy was a popular actor in the Lebanese scene and appeared in various dramas
and comedy series including Adam w Hawa and Aalaqat Khasa, a show currently
being broadcast.
He studied music at the Lebanese National Higher Conservatory of Music and
participated in 2001 edition of Studio al-Fan. He released a music video titled
“Houb Jnoun,” which also starred his brother.
During the funeral, people took to Twitter to express their condolences to the
Breidy family with the hashtag #IssamBreidyinoourhearts, which was trending
throughout the day.
The coffin arrived at the church a few minutes after 4 p.m., with Wissam and
Issam’s father Nouhad as principal pall bearers wearing tuxedos. A fireworks
show followed with music. At the sight of the coffin mourners began applauding
and throwing rice on it as it passed toward the altar.
An array of personalities attended including former Interior Minister Ziyad
Baroud, prominent TV presenter Georges Kordahi, actress Carmen Lebbos and
journalist May Chidiac, among others.
Minister for the Displaced Alice Shabtini, representing Prime Minister Tammam
Salam, and MP Farid Elias Khazen, representing Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri,
also attended the funeral.
“I promise you in front of all the people that are here, that I will try to
double each smile you make. I smile on your behalf and mine,” Wissam said
addressing his dead brother, tears streaming down his face.
At the end of the funeral it was announced that Breidy received an honorary
master’s degree from the Lebanese University, his alma mater.
Prominent Lebanese playwright Raymond Gebara dies at 80
The Daily Star/Apr. 14, 2015/BEIRUT: Prominent Lebanese playwright Raymond
Gebara died Tuesday at the age of 80 after a rapid deterioration of his health,
local media said. Gebara is considered one of the most prominent figures in
Lebanese and Arab drama, writing directing, and acting in a large number of
plays. Gebara left behind two children and his wife Mona al-Bashaalani.
Lebanese expats feel threatened after Hezbollah remarks:
report
The Daily Star/Apr. 14, 2015/BERUT: Lebanese expatriates living and working in
the Gulf say they feel threatened after recent fiery Hezbollah statements
against Saudi Arabia, according to a report published Tuesday. Local daily Al-Liwaa
said Lebanese businessmen working in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar
plan to form delegations to visit countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
to express solidarity with the decisions taken by the governments of those
countries, especially Saudi Arabia’s King Salman for his initiative to launch a
military offensive against Houthi rebels in Yemen. It said Lebanese expats
working in GCC countries would make similar visits to Lebanese officials to
express their concern because they are living in fear after Hezbollah’s latest
verbal attacks against Gulf leaders, particularly the Saudi monarch.
Israeli mine blast wounds south Lebanon farmer
The Daily Star/Apr. 14, 2015/BINT JBEIL, Lebanon: A farmer in a southern
Lebanese village was wounded Tuesday after stepping on a mine left by Israeli
forces, with some media reporting that his leg was amputated. The state-run
National News Agency said Mohammad Mourad’s leg had to be amputated after the
blast, which occurred in a field in the village of Aitaroun, in the district of
Bint Jbeil. He was moved to the nearby Salah Ghandour Hospital for treatment.
Southern Lebanon remains littered with Israeli landmines and cluster bombs left
or dropped on Lebanon during the Jewish state's decades-long occupation of the
country. Last month, six children were wounded in a blast caused by an Israeli
cluster bomb when they were playing in a field in the south Lebanon village of
Zibqin. The cluster bomb was believed to have been dropped by Israeli warplanes
during its 2006 invasion of Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia backs Future, Hezbollah dialogue
Wassim Mroueh/The Daily Star/ Apr. 15, 2015
BEIRUT: Hezbollah and the Future Movement discussed security measures to
preserve stability during their 10th dialogue session Tuesday, as Speaker Nabih
Berri said Saudi Arabia fully supported the talks between the rival parties. A
terse statement issued after the meeting held at Speaker Nabih Berri’s Ain al-Tineh
residence said that Future and Hezbollah officials discussed “continuing
security measures in all Lebanese areas in order to immunize the domestic
scene.” Last week, the Internal Security Forces shot dead two militant jihadis
in Tripoli and arrested a preacher wanted over killing Army soldiers. The
statement said that participants in the dialogue also tackled “other topics
which interest the Lebanese and some issues related to Syrian refugees.”Quoting
dialogue participants, Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV said Future and Hezbollah
officials discussed moving the tents of Syrian refugees in the northeastern town
of Arsal to another place. Interior Minister Nouhad Mahcnouk had made this
proposal months ago, arguing that the presence of tens of thousands of Syrian
refuges in and around the town was posing serious security threats, describing
Arsal as an “occupied town.” Arsal was briefly invaded by jihadi militants last
summer.
Like previous sessions, representing Hezbollah in the talks were MP Hasan
Fadlallah, Industry Minister Hussein Hajj Hasan and Hussein Khalil, a political
aide to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah. Attending on behalf of the
Future Movement were Machnouk, MP Samir Jisr and Nader Hariri, the chief of
former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s office. Also on hand was Finance Minister
Ali Hasan Khalil, a political aide to Berri. The new round of talks came amid
soaring tensions between Hezbollah and Future, caused by the war of words
between both groups over the Saudi-led military operation in Yemen which kicked
off last month. Hezbollah has lashed out at the kingdom over its military
intervention in Yemen, while Future has fully backed the step. Berri told his
visitors Tuesday evening that Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awad Asiri, who
visited him the same day, had expressed his country’s support for the
Hezbollah-Future dialogue. Asiri held talks with Prime Minister Tammam Salam as
well.
Berri revealed that he had tasked Minister Khalil with urging Hezbollah and the
Future Movement to refrain from escalatory stances. “Why don’t they do like Iran
and Saudi Arabia, which despite their differences, maintain a low rhetoric and
voice their interest in dialogue?” Berri said. The speaker said that both
Hezbollah and the Future Movement still backed dialogue. Berri also said
that he would chair a meeting for Parliament’s Secretariat Thursday to put the
agenda for an upcoming Parliament session which would engage in “necessary
legislating.”But in what reflected a continuation of the war of words over the
crisis in Yemen, Machnouk expressed his opposition to insults against Saudi
Arabia, saying the kingdom had always stood beside Lebanon. Addressing a
gathering of Beiruti families, Machnouk said that he who resorted to
elimination, aggression and hijacking the wills [of people] would actually be
humiliated. The minister was indirectly responding to a speech made by Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week in which he said that Saudi
Arabia would be humiliated and would not emerge victorious in Yemen. Meanwhile,
the Future parliamentary bloc said that dialogue with its rival Hezbollah was
necessary, despite the stagnation talks have reached.
“The bloc considers that ongoing dialogue with Hezbollah under the current
circumstances is a necessity that should continue despite the big gap between
ambitions and reality regarding its results, as it has reached stagnation and
lack of progress in several issues,” the Future bloc said in a statement after
its weekly meeting. The bloc said also that deep disputes with Hezbollah
persisted, but added that dialogue was still required in order to reduce tension
and pave the way for national consensus leading to the election of a president.
Separately, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun’s parliamentary bloc
reiterated its objection to extending the term of senior security officials.
“The bloc insists that the Cabinet should immediately put an end to these
dangerous violations, through the immediate appointment of Army and Internal
Security Forces officials,” the bloc said after its weekly meeting in a
statement read by former Minister Salim Jreissati.
Aoun argues that extending the terms of security officials violated the National
Defense law and that regulating the ISF. Amid a lack of consensus on a successor
and in order to avoid vacuum in a security post when the country is going
through a critical period, Defense Minister Samir Moqbel extended last month the
term of Brig. Edmond Fadel, the director general of Army Intelligence. The term
of Brig. Ibrahim Basbous, the head of the Internal Security Forces, expires in
June and that of Army Commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi in September. The terms of
both could be extended. Aoun dismisses claims by rivals that his opposition to
extension aimed at paving the way for his son-in-law, Brig. Shamel Rukoz, to
become the new Army commander. But he argues that Rukoz, like other senior Army
officials, has the right to aspire for occupying the highest Army post.
Ali Hmade to the STL: 2003 rocket attack against Future
TV under scrutiny
Elise Knutsen| The Daily Star/Apr. 15, 2015
BEIRUT: Defense lawyers completed their cross-examination of journalist Ali
Hamade at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon Tuesday, with questions focusing
primarily on the rocket attack at Future TV headquarters in 2003.
Hamade testified that he believed the rocket attack was “undertaken by a group
under orders from the Syrian intelligence services for purposes linked to the
political conflict between [then] Prime Minister [Rafik] Hariri and the Syrian
tutelage at the time.”
In circumstances mirroring the events following the Hariri assassination, an
erstwhile unheard of Islamist group claimed responsibility for the attack
against Future TV. A Syrian intelligence officer admitted to orchestrating the
attack and cover-up after he was arrested in Iraq.
Separately, Hamade acknowledged that he recalled an incident in the Bekaa Valley
town of Majdal Anjar in 2004 when questioned on the subject by defense attorney
Geoff Roberts, who represents the interests of Hezbollah member Assad Hassan
Sabra.
A number of individuals were arrested in the town of Majdal Anjar, which lies
close to the Syrian border, and “were accused of belonging to Islamic jihadi
cells coming from Syria, and then going to Iraq to commit bombings,” Hamade
recalled.
While five Hezbollah suspects have been charged with plotting the blast which
killed Hariri and 21 others in February 2005, testimony by recent witnesses has
focused on the Syrian regime and its role in Lebanon at the time of the
assassination.
The defense will continue cross-examining Mustapha Nasser Wednesday. Nasser, a
Hariri aide who fixed meetings with Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
began his testimony last week.
Asiri: Hezbollah’s anti-Saudi diatribe won’t benefit
Lebanon
Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star/Apr. 14, 2015 /BEIRUT:
Saudi Ambassador to
Lebanon Ali Awad Asiri Monday implicitly lashed out at Hezbollah over its stance
on the two-week-long war in Yemen, saying the Shiite party’s tirade against
Riyadh did not serve Lebanon’s interests. Defending the Saudi-led military
intervention against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, Asiri also
implicitly accused Iran of exploiting the Houthis to further its own ends in the
volatile region. He spoke during a meeting at his residence in Beirut with
envoys of member countries of operation “Decisive Storm,” a regional coalition
led by Saudi Arabia which since March 26 has carried out airstrikes against the
Houthis, who overran the capital Sanaa in September and have expanded to other
parts of Yemen.
Riyadh fears the rebels could take over the entire country and move it into the
orbit of Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. The meeting, also attended by a
number of Lebanese and media political figures, discussed latest developments in
the region, particularly the events in Yemen, in addition to the situation in
Lebanon, the National News Agency reported. He explained the reasons that
prompted Saudi Arabia to take a decision to launch the “Decisive Storm”
operation and the goals it is seeking to achieve behind it, which are:
“preserving legitimacy in Yemen and its territorial integrity, the safety of the
people and the continuity of institutions.”
“Some regional powers, which do not want goodness for Yemen, have lured a
segment of its people and exploited them to achieve goals and objectives serving
their interests,” Asiri told the ambassadors of Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab
Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Morocco and Turkey, according to the NNA, in a
clear reference to Iran.
Responding to senior Iranian officials’ vehement verbal attacks on Saudi Arabia,
he said: “These [regional powers] have now geared [their efforts] toward
covering up their negative acts and violations by attempting to criticize the
kingdom, its leadership and distort its image, while the entire world knows the
truth of the historic neighborly relations linking the kingdom with Yemen and
the countless aid the kingdom’s leadership has extended to the Yemeni people.”
In a clear allusion to Hezbollah, whose leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has
blasted Saudi Arabia for spearheading a coalition to launch a war on Yemen,
Asiri expressed his regret over the “emotional manner with which a Lebanese
party is dealing with the Yemen issue.”
“How can Lebanon’s interests be served in the stances taken by this party?” he
asked. For their part, the ambassadors said their countries’ support for Saudi
Arabia in the “Decisive Storm” operation was “a strategic decision.” They
denounced the “offensive and slander campaigns” against Saudi Arabia and its
ambassador to Lebanon launched by some political and media parties, saying such
campaigns “exposed the interests of Lebanon and its citizens to danger,” the NNA
reported.
Last month, Asiri struck back at Nasrallah, who has launched a fierce tirade
against Saudi Arabia and accused Riyadh of launching the war in an attempt to
regain control over the impoverished country. Asiri said Nasrallah’s remarks
contained false allegations and reflected the state of confusion of his patron,
Iran.
The Yemen offensive has already triggered a bitter war of words between
Lebanon’s Saudi and Iran allies. The airstrikes against Houthi targets have
opened a new front in a long-simmering rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in
the Gulf region. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said his country
intervened at the request of Yemeni President Abed Rabbou Mansour Hadi, who fled
for Riyadh. Iran has rejected accusations of arming the rebels and its Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has described the Saudi-led campaign as
“genocide.” Also Hezbollah’s deputy chief lashed out at Saudi Arabia, accusing
Riyadh of committing “genocide.”In an interview with the Associated Press,
Sheikh Naim Qassem said Saudi Arabia made a “strategic mistake” by interfering
in Yemen’s internal affairs and warned that the kingdom would “pay a heavy
price.”“Saudi Arabia has embroiled itself and will incur very serious losses
that have started to show and will increasingly reflect on its status, its
internal situation and its role in the region,” he said. “What happened in Yemen
is a crime that cannot be ignored. ”“What is happening in Yemen today will
reflect on Saudi Arabia internally,” Qassem said, claiming that the kingdom has
its own domestic problems and several “factors that may cause the internal
situation to implode” there. “So it would be wiser for it not to interfere in
Yemen’s affairs in a negative way, but rather in a positive way by calling for
dialogue.”However, March 14 MP Marwan Hamade said the fierce tirade against
Saudi Arabia reflected the collapse of Iran’s project in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq,
Yemen and Bahrain. “Saudi Arabia has intervened in Yemen after it was fed up
with Iran’s intervention and its support for the Houthi militia with arms by air
and by sea,” Hamade said in an interview to be published with Al-Liwaa daily
Tuesday. “Iran has invaded Arab countries to strike the Arab identity. The
vicious campaign against Saudi Arabia has confirmed the failure of Iran’s
project in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen.” He added that the “Decisive
Storm” operation was designed “to protect Yemen and its constitutional
legitimacy as well as Saudi Arabia and pan-Arab security, rather than attacking
Iran.”Meanwhile, Nasrallah is scheduled to speak Friday for the third time in
less than a month on the Yemen war amid tensions between Hezbollah and its
political rival the Future Movement. In a statement released late Sunday,
Hezbollah called for a rally at 5 p.m. Friday to protest the Saudi-led military
intervention in Yemen. Nasrallah will address the rally, the statement said. The
speech comes at a sensitive time in Future-Hezbollah relations, which have
soured over the Yemen war.
Hezbollah denounces STL charges against Al-Jadeed reporter
ahead of trial
Nizar Hassan/The Daily Star/Apr. 14, 2015/BEIRUT: Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadallah
offered his support Tuesday to Al-Jadeed TV and its editor Karma Khayat, who
begin a trial this week at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon over charges of
obstruction of justice and contempt of court. The charges, filed last year,
relate to a 2012 Al-Jadeed report that disclosed personal details of alleged
witnesses in a case trying five Hezbollah members accused of plotting the
assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
“We see this trial as a scandalous breach of Lebanese sovereignty and an assault
on the Lebanese people’s freedoms, constitution and laws,” Fadlallah, who heads
Parliament's media and telecommunications committee, told a news conference. “It
reveals one of the roles that this tribunal plays as a tool to exert pressure on
Lebanon,” he added. Hezbollah does not recognize the STL as a legitimate court,
and has accused it of being an Israeli tool created to undermine the party.
Khayat, the deputy manager of Al-Jadeed TV’s news desk, is expected to attend
the first day of the trial Thursday in a town outside The Hague. “Journalist
Karma Khayat’s appearance at the court in The Hague is an insult to the Lebanese
state,” Fadlallah said. “It would not take place in this manner if we had a real
state that defends its sovereignty and protect the freedom of its media.”The
Hezbollah official called on the Cabinet to intervene immediately to stop what
he called an assault on media freedom, saying that tolerating such actions would
pave the way for other foreign entities to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty.
“How can any honorable and free Lebanese accept that a Lebanese is taken outside
the country’s borders and appear at a foreign tribunal to be tried for her
freedom of saying the truth?," he wondered. “This wouldn’t have happened even in
the age of foreign colonization, but it seems today’s colonization is stronger.”
If convicted, Khayat and Al-Jadeed's parent company, New TV S.A.L., face a
maximum penalty of seven years in jail, a fine of 100,000 euros, or both.
Ibrahim al-Amin, the editor-in-chief of Al-Akhbar newspaper, and the newspaper's
parent company Akhbar Beirut S.A.L, face similar charges.
UN imposes arms embargo targeting Yemen Houthis; Russia
abstains
Michelle NicholsLouis Charbonneau| Reuters/Apr. 14, 2015
UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations Security Council Tuesday blacklisted the son
of Yemen's former president and a Houthi leader, and effectively imposed an arms
embargo on the Iran-allied Houthi rebels who rule most of the country. The
council voted 14 in favor. Russia abstained, saying some of its proposals for
the resolution, drafted by council member Jordan and Gulf Arab states, were not
included. "The co-sponsors refused to include the requirements insisted upon by
Russia addressed to all sides to the conflict to swiftly halt fire and to begin
peace talks," Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told the council after the
vote. Saudi Arabia launched air trikes against the Iran-allied Houthis in
neighboring Yemen last month with a coalition made up mainly of four Gulf Arab
allies. The United States said last week it is speeding up arms supplies to the
coalition. "We insisted that the arms embargo needs to be comprehensive; it's
well known that Yemen is awash in weapons," Churkin said. "The adopted
resolution should not be used for further escalation of the armed conflict."
Iran Monday urged the formation of a new Yemeni government and offered to assist
in a political transition. The U.N. Security Council imposed a global asset
freeze and travel ban on Ahmed Saleh, the former head of Yemen's elite
Republican Guard, and on Abdul Malik al-Houthi, a top leader of the Shiite
Houthi group. Saleh's father, former Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and two
other senior Houthi leaders, Abdul Khaliq al-Huthi and Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim,
were blacklisted by the Security Council in November. Yemeni soldiers loyal to
the former president are fighting alongside the Houthis. The resolution imposed
an arms embargo on the five men and "those acting on their behalf or at their
direction in Yemen" - effectively the Houthi and soldiers loyal to Saleh. It
demands the Houthis stop fighting and withdraw from areas they have seized,
including Sanaa, the capital. It also expressed concern at "destabilizing
actions" taken by former President Saleh, "including supporting the Houthis'
actions."
ISIS loses ground in Syria's Yarmouk camp: Palestinian
sources
Agence France Presse/Apr. 14, 2015/DAMASCUS: Jihadis from ISIS have lost ground
to Palestinian fighters in Syria's Yarmouk camp, Palestinian officials and a
resident said Tuesday. ISIS fighters have retreated from much of the territory
they seized in the camp in southern Damascus after entering it on April 1, a
resident using the pseudonym Samer told AFP. "We haven't even seen any Daesh
members in over three days," he said, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS. The
withdrawal was confirmed by an official from a pro-Syrian regime Palestinian
faction fighting against ISIS inside the camp. "There are intermittent but
ongoing clashes between Palestinian factions and ISIS," said Khaled Abdel Majid,
head of the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front, adding that ISIS had withdrawn
from most of the neighborhoods it previously controlled. ISIS fighters were now
confined largely to the southwest of the camp, with Palestinian factions - both
pro- and anti-Syrian regime - controlling most of the east and north of the
camp, Palestinian sources said.
Syrian regime forces are stationed outside the camp and have maintained a tight
siege around it, but Abdel Majid said the Palestinian factions had established a
"joint operations room" with government forces. A Syrian security source in
Damascus also said "the Palestinian factions have made progress and were able to
recapture key points... and the operation is ongoing."The Palestinian forces
inside the camp include the Aknaf Beit al-Maqdis group that is opposed to the
regime and has fought alongside Syrian rebels. Fighters from the Palestinian
Fatah and Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine groups are not
participating, Palestinian officials said. Both groups have said they want
Yarmouk to remain neutral and do not want to be seen as taking a side in the
conflict between Syria's government and opposition forces. ISIS' advance rattled
residents and the Syrian government, with the country's reconciliation minister
saying a military operation would be necessary to expel the jihadis. The
extremist group's entrance into Yarmouk plunged the district into further
hardship, exacerbating already-dire conditions caused by a government siege
lasting more than 18 months. Once home to some 160,000 Palestinian and some
Syrian residents, Yarmouk's population had shrunk to just 18,000 by the time
ISIS entered the camp.According to Palestinian sources, some 2,500 civilians
have managed to escape the camp, but aid agencies and the United Nations have
warned of a serious humanitarian crisis and urged all parties to allow the
creation of a humanitarian corridor.
U.S. Senate foreign relations leaders reach deal on Iran
bill
Patricia Zengerle/Reuters/Apr. 14, 2015 /WASHINGTON: Republican and Democratic
leaders of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee reached a compromise
agreement that would shorten Congress' review of any final Iran nuclear deal to
52 days under an Iran nuclear bill, the panel's chairman, Republican Senator Bob
Corker, said Tuesday. A Senate aide said the compromise, which will be
considered by the full committee later Tuesday, would give Congress 30 days to
review the deal, 12 days for a possible veto of congressional action by
President Barack Obama and then 10 days for an override vote. The measure, put
forward by Corker, seeks to give Congress a vote on any final nuclear agreement
with Iran. International negotiators have set a June 30 deadline for reaching a
final agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting
economic sanctions against Tehran. Obama would not be able to waive sanctions
imposed by the U.S. Congress during the 52-day review process, Corker said. The
proposed review process would begin after a final agreement is reached. "We have
kept the pure integrity of the process in place" in the compromise, Corker told
reporters as he walked into a classified briefing for the Senate by Secretary of
State John Kerry and other top Obama administration officials.
Supporters of the bill have been scrambling to shore up bipartisan support for
the measure. They want to win strong support from both Republicans and Democrats
on the committee in the hopes of winning over the 67 members of the 100-member
Senate to eventually override a presidential veto, if necessary. The compromise
also would remove a provision of the bill that would force Obama to certify that
Iran has not supported any act of terrorism against the United States or U.S.
citizens anywhere in the world, the Senate aide said.
That provision would be replaced by a requirement that the president provide
Congress with a series of reports on a range of issues, including terrorism, the
aide said.
A Political Decisive Storm
Salman Aldossary /Asharq Alawsat
Tuesday, 14 Apr, 2015 /Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi took his time to
appoint a vice president. Before the appointment on Sunday, legitimacy was found
in just one person: the president. Yemen’s legitimacy has been under threat;
with an unprecedented power vacuum, no parliament and no state apparatus able,
if necessary, to fill the void. However, the appointment of Khaled Bahah to the
post of vice president has granted Yemen’s legitimacy a sense of stability,
providing the presidency with the strength and immunity it sorely needs during
this difficult time. Hadi’s appointment of a vice president is a courageous
decision, while it also meets the aspirations of the Yemeni people for the
creation of a civil state, which is the legitimate right of all sections of
Yemen’s society.
War is not solely a military endeavor that is only fought with weapons. The
appointment of a Yemeni vice president is a political move that will help Yemen
extricate itself from the current crisis. Operation Decisive Storm’s military
objectives include pressuring the Houthi rebels to renounce their coup, put down
their arms and acknowledge and recognize Yemen’s legitimate authority. In the
same way, Bahah’s appointment is a political move whose objectives run parallel
to the military objectives of the operation, particularly as the vice president
is a well-known and accepted figure across Yemen’s political divide. In addition
to this, one can say that he is completely untarnished by the ongoing political
conflict in the country; his hands are clean, unlike most other Yemeni political
leaders and figures.
Despite Hadi’s brave step in appointing Bahah, this role comes without clear
powers and duties for the new vice president. This, of course, reduces
expectations of political success during this difficult period in Yemeni
history. Bahah will not be able to carry out his duties effectively if the role
of vice president does not encompass, at least, the powers and duties of prime
minister. It is understood that Bahah will not be appointed deputy
commander-in-chief, with Hadi remaining head of Yemen’s military forces, based
on his military background. While Bahah, for his part, has spent most of his
life working in the economic and oil sector. However, based on the rare Yemeni
consensus over their new vice president, the powers that Hadi is expected to
grant him will be welcomed by the majority of Yemenis, with the exception of the
Houthis—even if Bahah had previously been one of their proposed candidates to
take over the Presidential Council. Khaled Bahah is a political figure from
Yemen’s south—Hadhramaut to be precise—who enjoys popularity across Yemen, even
in the north. His appointment sees Yemen’s legitimacy take an important step
toward restarting the stalled political process since the Houthi coup on
September 12, 2014. When he previously served as oil minister, Vice President
Bahah rejected the corruption of ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh. He is the
figure who is most capable of playing a vital role in completing the political
process in Yemen according to the Gulf Initiative and the outcomes of the Yemeni
National Dialogue.
Bahah is facing a number of major political challenges, not least the political
deceit of ex-president Saleh, as well as Iran’s bullying tactics, which are
being enacted by the Houthis. However, there is internal Yemeni momentum behind
him, and ongoing Gulf and international backing of Yemeni legitimacy. This will
grant Bahah the ability to bring the Yemeni people together politically, and
form a unified national front that will work to restore and return Yemen’s
hijacked state institutions from the Houthis. As Operation Decisive Storm is
gathering pace, militarily, to save Yemen and its people, Yemenis are also doing
everything in their power to launch a politically decisive storm to uproot the
Houthi rebels and restore their homeland.
Israel: Russian decision on S-300 anti-missile system proves dangers of Iran
deal
By TOVAH LAZAROFF/J.Post/04/13/2015/Israel on Monday warned that Russia’s decision to lift its five-year ban on the
delivery of S-300 air-defense missile system to Iran proves that the deal to
curb Tehran’s nuclear program will only strengthen it militarily. “Instead of
demanding that Iran desist from the terrorist activity that it is carrying out
in the Middle East and throughout the world, it is being allowed to arm itself
with advanced weapons that will only increase its aggression,” Strategic Affairs
Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Monday. The Kremlin said Russian President
Vladimir Putin signed a decree ending a self-imposed ban on delivering the S-300
missile system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two, after Moscow
canceled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West.The
United States and Israel had lobbied Russia to block the missile sale before it
did so in 2010, saying the S-300 system could be used to shield Iran’s nuclear
facilities from possible future air strikes.
US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke by telephone with Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday to express his concern about the shipment of
S-300 missiles to Iran. The two men also talked more globally about the
framework agreement between the six world powers and Iran, which was negotiated
earlier this month in Lausanne, Switzerland. Lavrov told the Russian News Agency
TASS that the S-300 ban is no longer necessary in light of the framework
agreement. He added that the system is defensive, hence would pose no threat to
Israel. “We see no need to continue doing this given progress in talks on Iran’s
nuclear program and the absolutely legitimate nature of the forthcoming deal,”
he said. “S-300 is an air-defense missile system, which is of a purely defensive
nature. It is not designed for attacks and will not put at risk the security of
any regional state, including Israel,” Lavrov said.
But US State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters in Washington, “It
is not constructive at this time for Russia to move forward with this. Given
Iran’s destabilizing actions in the region... this is not the time to be selling
those kind of systems to [Iran].”
Harf pledged that the US would protect its allies in the region, including
Israel, against Iran. She added that the US does not believe the decision would
impact the continued negotiations between the six world powers and Iran toward a
final agreement by the end of June.
“We see this as separate from the negotiations,” Harf said. Steintiz disagreed
and said that Russia’s decision to lift the ban is a sign of how dangerous the
Iran deal was. “This is the direct result of the legitimacy that Iran is
receiving from the nuclear deal being made with it. This also proves that the
economic momentum in Iran that will come in the wake of the lifting of the
sanctions will be exploited for armaments and not used for the welfare of the
Iranian people,” he said.
The US has said that this deal will make the region safer, because it will curb
Iran’s nuclear program by extending its breakout time to develop nuclear weapons
from a few months to a year’s time. In a phone conference with Israeli reporters
earlier in the day, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman
– who heads the US negotiating team in the Iran talks – said that a military
strike against the Islamic Republic would not eliminate its nuclear program,
rather only set it back by a few years.
She argued that the framework agreement is therefore the best option to keep
Iran from producing nuclear weapons for an extended period of time. Israel has
argued that the best option is continued and increased sanctions. On Monday
night Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of what would happen with Iran
once sanctions were lifted when he spoke at an Israel Police ceremony in Beit
Shemesh. “Iran is receiving legitimacy to continue these actions and when the
sanctions are lifted shortly, if indeed the deal is approved, it will receive
billions of dollars to finance its war and terrorism machines, with
international legitimacy.
Before our very eyes an absurd reality is taking shape in which the key to our
fate and the future of the Middle East is liable to be delivered into the hands
of the fanatical Iranian regime,” he said. “An agreement full of holes with Iran
will not ensure regional stability; a vigorous and resolute policy that prevents
it from arming itself with nuclear weapons and compels it to halt its takeover
of other nations would,” Netanyahu added. Russia’s lifting of the S-300
anti-missile ban was not the only Iranian restriction that it lifted. A senior
Russian government official said separately that Moscow has started supplying
grain, equipment, and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil
under a barter deal. Sources told Reuters more than a year ago that a deal worth
up to $20 billion was being discussed and would involve Russia buying up to
500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day.
Officials from the two countries have issued contradictory statements since then
on whether a deal has been signed, but Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
said on Monday one was already being implemented. “I wanted to draw your
attention to the rolling out of the oilfor- goods deal, which is on a very
significant scale,” Ryabkov told a briefing with members of the upper house of
parliament on the talks with Iran. “In exchange for Iranian crude oil supplies,
we are delivering certain products. This is not banned or limited under the
current sanctions regime.” He declined to give further details. Russia’s
Agriculture Ministry declined comment and the Energy Ministry did not respond to
request for comment. There was no comment from Iran. Iran is the third largest
buyer of Russian wheat, and Moscow and Tehran have been discussing the
oil-for-goods barter deal for more than a year.
Ryabkov suggested Russia had high hopes that its steady support for Iran would
pay off in energy cooperation once international sanctions against Tehran are
lifted. “It takes two to tango. We are ready to provide our services and I am
sure they will be pretty advantageous compared to other countries,” he said. “We
never gave up on Iran in a difficult situation... Both for oil and gas, I think
the prospects for our cooperation should not be underestimated.”He also
reiterated Moscow’s view that an arms embargo on Iran should be lifted once a
final nuclear deal is sealed. Sanctions have cut Iran’s oil exports to about 1.1
million barrels per day from 2.5 million in 2012. Analysts say Iran is unlikely
to see a major boost in exports before next year.
One upper house lawmaker asked Ryabkov whether lifting sanctions on Tehran could
undermine Russia’s position on global energy markets, including as the main gas
supplier to Europe. “I am not confident as yet that the Iranian side would be
ready to carry out supplies of natural gas from its fields quickly and in large
quantities to Europe. This requires infrastructure that is difficult to build,”
he said. Leonid Ivashov, a retired Russian general who now heads the Moscow-
based Center for Geopolitical Analysis think tank, said the move is part of a
race for future contracts in Iran. “If we now delay and leave Iran waiting, then
tomorrow, when sanctions are fully lifted, Washington and its allies will get
Iran’s large market,” RIA news agency quoted him as saying. Reuters contributed
to this report.
The Middle East Turmoil and Israel's Security
Efraim Inbar/International Relations and Security Network (ISN)
April 13, 2015
http://www.meforum.org/5174/israel-middle-east-security
Despite an increasingly complex security environment, which includes new dangers
in the Eastern Mediterranean, the rise of non-Arab Muslim powers and more,
Efrain Inbar thinks that there’s still only one potential ‘game changer’ in the
Middle East’s balance of power – the nuclearization of Iran.
The Middle East is in great turmoil. The statist order that has underpinned the
region for a century has collapsed. Several states have lost their monopoly over
the use of force and are no longer able to provide law and order. This is
especially true of Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria. Even Egypt, the only
historic Arab state, has had difficulties effectively enforcing its sovereignty
over its territory. Many of the militias challenging these state entities have a
radical Islamist ideology, reflecting the rise in the appeal of political Islam
in the Arab world. In contrast to the leaders of these states, who are
inefficient and corrupt, the Islamists actually deliver services to the people
and have a reputation for being brutal but honest. However, the likes of Al
Qaida in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or the so called Islamic State (IS) are hardly
the proper agents for modernizing their environments and their popularity dooms
the Arab world to continuous ignorance and poverty. For this and other reasons,
Israel will need to remain vigilant in the years ahead.
Outside Looking In
The decline of the Arab world has been paralleled by the rise of non-Arab Muslim
powers - Turkey and Iran. Both countries fare better on development indices and
display nowadays an ambitious foreign policy fueled by imperial and Islamist
impulses. Under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ‘zero problems’approach to foreign
policy, Turkey has gradually distanced itself from the West. In 2003, for
example, Ankara rejected the United States’ request to open a “northern front”
against Iraqi forces. More recently, Turkey has opposed sanctions levied by the
United Nations and the West against Russia and Iran.
For its part, Iran has successfully advanced its nuclear program despite the
displeasure of the international community. Comparatively recent developments in
the Middle East and beyond have also allowed Tehran to establish a ‘Shiite
Crescent’ stretching from Tehran to the eastern Mediterranean. This has provided
Iran with countless opportunities to project power into the Middle East and
Balkans, much to the chagrin of Saudi Arabia and others. Indeed, the successes
of Iranian Shiite proxies in Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa underscore the
Tehran quest for hegemony in the Middle East.
By contrast, US influence around the Middle East appears to be in decline,
primarily as a result of the Obama administration’s foreign policy outlook.
Correcting Washington’s overextension in the Islamic world is indeed necessary,
but insensitivity to the concerns of its allies such as Egypt, Israel and Saudi
Arabia is destructive to the regional balance of power.
In this respect, Washington’s efforts to strike a deal with Iran that basically
legitimizes its nuclear breakout status and awards Tehran the role of the
regional policeman will be viewed by Cairo, Riyadh and Jerusalem as a colossal
strategic mistake. The inevitable result will be further nuclear proliferation
as none of these countries are likely to want to stay behind in uranium
enrichment capabilities. Moreover, the regional instability could lead to more
bloodshed. Relying on a radical and revisionist regime in Tehran to provide
stability is the height of strategic folly.
The View from Jerusalem
The implications of the Middle East’s ongoing turmoil for Israel’s security are
mixed. Like Iran and Turkey, a democratic and politically stable Israel is also
a rising non-Arab power and a player in the regional balance of power. The power
differential between Israel's national might and its neighbors has further
increased, given that it has managed to prosper economically and develop a
high-tech powerful military. In addition, the strong armies of Iraq and Syria
have disappeared, decreasing the chances for a large-scale conventional
encounter with Israel. Moreover, the pro-Western Sunni states such as Egypt,
Jordan and Saudi Arabia see Israel as an ally against a rising Iran, as well as
against radical Islamist movements. This also comes at a time when the United
States is viewed in many quarters as a less dependable ally.
By contrast, low intensity challenges might intensify. The domestic problems
plaguing weakened Arab states make them increasingly susceptible to radical
Islam and more prone to terrorist violence. As their leaders lose their grip
over state territory and borders become more porous, armed groups and terrorists
gain greater freedom of action. Moreover, as weakened states lose control over
their security apparatus, national arsenals of conventional (and
non-conventional) arms become increasingly vulnerable, which may result in the
emergence of increasingly well-armed, politically dissatisfied groups that seek
to harm Israel. For example, following the fall of Gaddafi, Libyan SA-7 anti-air
missiles and anti-tank RPGs have reached Hamas in Gaza. The IS even fights with
American weapons captured from the Iraqi army.
Similarly, in the event of the Assad regime collapsing, Syria’s advanced arsenal
of conventional weapons could easily end up in the hands of Hizballah or other
radical elements. This, in turn, raises the prospect of an emboldened Hizballah
and Hamas – both of whom are Iranian proxies located along Israel’s borders -
renewing their campaigns of violence. In recent years, the fallout from the Arab
Spring has helped to detract attention away from the Palestinian issue. In
addition, the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) ability to harm Israel in order to
reignite international interest is also very limited. As a result, a weak PA has
come under increasing pressure from the popular Hamas. A Palestinian strategic
miscalculation, leading to the eruption of another round of violence, is a
possibility that Israel cannot ignore. Nevertheless, so far Israel has been
successful in containing the threats from sub-state groups and in limiting their
potential damage.
The emergence of an uncertain and unstable strategic environment is conducive to
strategic surprises. Israeli intelligence is challenged by a plethora of new
actors and leaders whose modus operandi is far from clear. Israel has a large
and sophisticated intelligence apparatus. Yet it is not immune to surprises.
Therefore, it would be wise to prepare for worst-case scenarios, rather than
succumb to rosy assessments.
Looking West (in more ways than one)
The turmoil in the Arab world is also changing the strategic landscape in the
Eastern Mediterranean basin, where elements of radical Islam are gaining
control. Tunisia, Libya, Sinai in Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey all
play host to groups with Islamist tendencies, thereby threatening the currently
unrestricted access to this area by Israel and the West. Approximately 90
percent of Israel’s foreign trade is carried out via the Mediterranean, making
freedom of navigation in this area critical for Israel’s economic well-being.
Moreover, its chances of becoming energy independent and a significant exporter
of gas is linked to Israel’s ability to secure free passage for its maritime
trade and to defend its newly discovered hydrocarbon fields, Leviathan and
Tamar. These developments require greater Israeli efforts in the naval arena.
Indeed, Israel is engaged in building a robust security system for the gas
fields and has procurement plans for additional vessels.
As with other parts of the Middle East, the assessment in Jerusalem is that the
key factor in the developing regional balance of power is Iran’s nuclearization.
This would be a “game changer” that only Israel has the capability to prevent.
Netanyahu’s recent electoral victory left in power the only leader that might
have the political courage to order a military strike to obstruct the Iranian
progress towards acquiring nuclear weapons. Indeed, his victory was quietly
welcomed in the capitals of the moderate Arab states that are terrified of Iran
and have little time for Obama. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are good examples.
Accordingly, Israel is watching with growing bewilderment the endeavor of the
Obama administration to implement a “grand bargain” with Iran. This puts
Jerusalem on an inevitable collision course with its most important ally. Israel
continues to benefit from a large reservoir of sympathy among the populace of
the United States, and most notably within the Republican controlled Congress.
Yet, while Obama is not popular, as president he can extract heavy costs in the
military, diplomatic and strategic arenas. The remaining 22 months until he
leaves office must be weathered with minimum damage to the American-Israeli
strategic partnership, particularly if Israel chooses to make good on its threat
not to allow Iran to become a nuclear power. With this in mind, the
American-Iranian nexus is the most dangerous challenge for Israel’s national
security in the near future.
For more information on issues and events that shape our world, please visit the
ISN Blog or browse our resources.
**Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, is a
professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and a fellow at the Middle
East Forum.
Hold the cheers and boos on the Iranian ‘deal’
BOB RAE/Special to The Globe and Mail
Last updated Monday, Apr. 13 2015
The responses to the announced “framework agreement” on the Iranian nuclear
program have been predictable. President Barack Obama thinks it is “historic”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls it “dangerous”, and has the
animated support of a Republican Congress ready to leap at signs of perfidious
weakness from the U.S. President.
The problem with all this is that there is no deal. There is a framework of a
deal, a limit on the number of centrifuges, the presence of inspectors, and an
easing of sanctions. But the closer the framework is analysed, the clearer it is
that, as they always say in negotiations, “there’s no deal until there’s a whole
deal”.
Mr. Obama must feel he needs to wax eloquent because he’s trying to stop
Congress from passing even tighter sanctions, and he knows his veto, if it comes
to that, will need to have public support. Mr. Netanyahu wants to bring the
Iranian regime to its knees – an objective shared by most people in Israel – but
is at his weakest when he tries to outline the alternative to the logic that
Iran will not slow down its nuclear path unless sanctions are eased.
Within Iran we can see signs of an effort to play down the framework and to keep
pushing for more concessions. If Canada had at least a listening post there we
might have a better sense of how the debate is unfolding within the ranks of the
government. But the megaphone diplomacy now in vogue in Ottawa has ruled out
that possibility.
It is a simple rule of negotiation that your leverage decreases dramatically if
you can’t walk away from a deal. My difficulty with Mr. Obama’s positioning is
that in not admitting that there’s no deal yet, he gives the appearance that the
details are just that, technicalities that are nothing to worry about. But at
every level, the details of the deal are the deal itself.
As quoted in the Economist, in its Feb. 19 report the International Atomic
Energy Association said that it “remains concerned about the possible
existence...of undisclosed nuclear-related activities...including activities
related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile”. It is not clear
whether inspectors will be permitted to go everywhere, or whether Iran will have
to cough up more information on its military and defence plans for a nuclear
bomb. The parties have not agreed on how much stockpiling of low enriched
uranium will be permitted.
The framework is better than no framework, but it is not the deal itself. That
remains to be done, and even the fact that the parties to the framework started
disagreeing publicly about its meaning and implications right after it was
announced does not bode well for the next round of talks heading to the June
deadline.
The objective of getting Iran to agree to get off a path to a nuclear bomb, and
to offer something in exchange for a verifiable commitment is a good one. But
the deal will have to be rock solid at its detail and implementation before it
will reassure other potential members of the nuclear club, like Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, and Egypt, that they should abandon that option for themselves.
The other issue is Iran’s overall behaviour toward its own citizens and in the
region. The Shia/Sunni divide remains deep and violent. Mr Netanyahu is not
being an extremist when he points out that a regime so hostile to the very
existence of Israel is a genuine threat to the peace and stability of the
region. But describing a problem is a lot easier than prescribing a remedy.
It certainly makes no sense to walk away from the negotiating table now. If the
framework is filled in properly it provides more security than the alternatives.
But no one should be waving a piece of paper saying “peace in our time”. Surely
we should have learned that by now.
Russia gave US and its allies a hard slap in the face
Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/Published: 04.14.15/Israel Opinion
Analysis: Putin's decision to lift the ban on sales of S-300 missile defense
system to Iran is a reminder that Israel and the American administration are in
the same boat, and that it may be time to stop rocking the boat and start to
seriously talk to the captain.
If Iran had operational S-300 missiles today, and Israel decided to attack Iran
tomorrow morning – it would have been a totally different ball game due to a
much higher hurdle than the one the Israel Air Force faced in Operation Opera,
which destroyed the nuclear reactor in Iraq. But the Iranians don't have such
missiles at the moment, and probably won't have any in the next two-three years.
Meanwhile in Israel, which failed to strike in Iran in the 10 years it could
have done so, there doesn’t seem to be anyone who will make such a decision in
the foreseeable future.
So we can, allegedly, calm down. But reality is much more complicated: We are in
the midst of a growing international crisis and are beginning to feel its
collateral damage.
First of all, we have a political story here which marks the collapse of the
Iran sanctions regime. While an agreement between Iran and the world powers has
yet to be signed, the Russians have already given the American administration
and its allies a hard slap in the face.
The Kremlin announcement arrived while a high-ranking Iranian security
delegation – led by the chairman of the Iranian parliament's Committee for
Foreign Policy and National Security, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, and the secretary of
Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani – was visiting Moscow.
This serves as further proof that the Iranians and Russians have long-term plans
to tighten their relations and resume their security cooperation, including arms
sales.
And if that were not enough, Moscow is linking the timing of the declaration to
the crisis in Yemen, where the Russians are standing by the Iranians and Houthis
with an oppositional policy against the Americans. Russian officials believe
that the conflict in Yemen will eventually lead to a direct clash between the
Iranians and the Saudis, which will lead to a Saudi attack on the Iranian
nuclear facilities, and are therefore providing the ayatollahs with a modern
aerial defense system.
As far as the United States Fifth Fleet is concerned, the possibility that the
Iranians will possess S-300 missiles and the Saudis will be involved in an
aerial conflict poses a much more concrete threat to the American aircraft
carriers in the Persian Gulf than to Israel.
And so, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to rock the American
administration's boat and is hardly succeeding in creating a few waves, the
Russians have come along and reminded us that we and the Americans are in the
same boat – and that when water enters that boat, we are the first to get wet
because we are lower in the hierarchy. Therefore, it may be time to stop rocking
the boat and start to seriously talk to the captain.
The Iranians will likely not receive the S-300 soon, as the model they have
ordered, which was adjusted to their operational needs, was dismantled in 2011.
The Russian company no longer manufactures that model, and its production lines
are now producing more sophisticated S-400 missiles. The Russians are
essentially planning to remove the S-300 missiles from their army, give them to
the Iranians and take in S-400 missiles instead, but the S-400 production line
is slow and it will take time before they accumulate the required stock. It is
possible, however, that the Iranians already have the Chinese version of the
S-300.
From an operational point of view, we are talking about an advanced weapon
system which operates in ranges and heights that the Air Force has yet to deal
with. We can assume that in the middle of the previous decade, when the deal to
sell S-300 to Iran and Syria was on the agenda, Israel began preparing for this
threat in terms of combat doctrines and technologically – but as long as we have
not seen this missile's real performance and have not been exposed to its
weaknesses, we should expect surprises.
So far, the protected area was in a relatively narrow range of 20 to 30
kilometers, but the S-300 model offered to the Iranians provides a protection
range of 150 kilometers. The Air Force will have to be able to locate and
disrupt the radar and the missile and develop designated combat doctrines. That
requires time and money, but as long as we are talking about professional issues
which engineers and pilots should be able to solve, solutions will likely be
found. Our problems are in the leadership area.
Why Putin is playing friendly with Iran
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/Published:04.14.15
Analysis: Putin's decision to provide Iran with the S-300 air defense system has
three strategic goals, according to experts: Challenging US, securing Moscow's
oil revenue and strengthening Russian position in the Middle East.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's declaration that he will provide the S-300
air defense system to Iran is meant to achieve three strategic goals, according
to experts.
1. Challenging the US on Ukraine
The move to provide the S-300 the Iran could be seen as a way for Russia to
challenge the US and the West in relation to the Ukraine crisis. Putin supports
the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, while the US' support of the
Ukrainian government, which rules the western provinces of the country, is the
root of great tensions not just between Moscow and Washington, but also between
Russia and the European Union.
The sanctions the West imposed on Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the
fighting in eastern Ukraine create serious financial difficulties for Russia.
Putin has created a situation where he is "punishing" the US in a way he
estimates will hurt the Americans and their ally – Israel.
2. Oil revenues
Russia, which is the world's number one oil producer, is deeply concerned that
the removal of sanctions against Iran will lead to a further drop in oil prices
in the world market.
Iran was the third largest oil producer in the world before the sanctions were
imposed on it. Now, it exports less than one million barrels a day, which is
less than a third of its output capacity.
However, if sanctions against Iran were to be removed, it will begin to market
its oil freely and get rewarded for it – oil prices around the world will
certainly drop and will primarily hurt the Russian economy.
So the Russians found a solution: They were quick to establish ties with Iran
before the sanctions were lifted so that Iran would pass on a significant amount
of its oil production to Russian in exchange for weapons and Russian wheat.
The Russian aim is likely to store the Iranian oil in Russia so that it will not
reach the world market and by doing so prevent the further reduction of oil
prices that would be fatal for Russia – all while promoting Russian weapons and
agriculture industries.
The economic outlook is most likely quite important in Russia's decision to arm
Iran with the S-300 missile system. The Russians are no fools, and they took
advantage of the deal that was obtained in Lausanne to be the first in the oil
market and to determine its terms.
3. A key player in the Middle East
The selling of the S-300 missile system to Iran was also meant to reintroduce
Russia to the Middle East as a major player at the expense of the US.
Putin has seen the US negotiating directly with Iran and preparing to make it a
major ally in the Middle East. He's worried that if the US success in warming up
its relations with Iran, and at the same time keep its alliances with the
Saudis, Egyptians and Israelis, the US will turn into a major world power in the
Middle East. Putin wants to make Russia a player of similar value to the US in
the Middle East, and is trying to ride on the S-300 missiles sale as an attempt
to achieve this goal again.
In other words, the Israeli response to the Russian move is very mild compared
to the sharp American response that was seen through the conversation between US
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Jerusalem is not making too strong of a protest and neither is Netanyahu –
rather the criticism is coming from Minister Steinitz.
Why is this so?
One can certainly predict that Israel knows it will take a few years until the
S-300 missile system is completely transferred to Iran and it can become
operational, and maybe they also know things that Iran does not know regarding
the system's abilities and Israel's own ability to neutralize this system. There
is another possible explanation for Israel's bland response to the sale: Russia
has already cancelled its embargo on the selling of S-300 missiles to Iran twice
in the past, and then changed its mind when Israel's demands become greater –
relating to arming Georgia for example. It is possible that Putin just wanted to
flex a muscle and then change his mind later. This is certainly a realistic
option.