LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 17/14
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources For March 17/14
US, Russian, Chinese military satellites hunt MH370 over Central Asia. Is it
readied for a terrorist attack/DEBKAfile/March 17/14
Syria’s messy transformation enters a fourth year/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al
Arabiya/March 17/14
Mahmoud Abbas and the 'Jewish State'/Robert Satloff/Foreign Policy/March 17/14
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources For March 17/14
Lebanese Related News
Four Dead, Several Hurt in Suicide Car Blast in al-Nabi Othman
Death Toll in Sectarian Fighting in Tripoli Reaches 13
Rifi Slams Jubilation over Yabrud, Says to Seek Hizbullah Syria Exit in State
Institutes
Syria Strikes Outskirts of Arsal amid Reports of Gunmen Entering Town
Syrian Army, Hizbullah Seize Full Control of Rebel Town Yabrud
Contacts Ongoing to Urge Phalange Party to Withhold Resignation
Raad Calls on Cabinet to 'Fight Terror, Hold Timely Presidential Vote'
Army Arrests Syrian Gunmen, Shoots at Pick-Up in Arsal
Arsal Residents Deplore Rocket Attacks on Bekaa Towns as al-Labweh Road Reopened
Al-Rahi Calls for Granting Cabinet Vote of Confidence
Malnutrition Grows among Syrian Refugee Children in Lebanon
Report: Documents Reveal Fate of Four Lebanese Nationals Missing in Syria
Russian Embassy in Beirut Steps Up Security Measures amid Threats
Phalange Ministers to Resign before Vote of Confidence if 'Dangerous Confusion' Not Resolved
Kataeb threatens Cabinet walkout over policy statement
Miscellaneous Reports And News'
Syria army recaptures rebel bastion Yabroud
US official: Iran pursuing banned items for nuclear, missile work
82 senators outline 'acceptable' terms for Iran deal in letter to Obama
Brahimi Arrives in Iran for Talks on Syria Crisis
Far-Right Israeli Minister Makes Brief Visit to al-Aqsa Mosque
Israel Minister Says Kerry Pressuring on the Wrong Side
Yaalon Says Abbas 'No Partner' for Peace Deal
Syrian Refugee Children Die in Jordan Fire
Thousands March in Western Capitals to Support Syrians
Crimea votes to quit Ukraine under guns of Russian tanks
Polls Open in Crimea Secession Referendum
China and the future alliance with Saudi Arabia
4 Dead, Several Hurt in Suicide Car Blast in al-Nabi Othman
Naharnet/A suicide car bomb attack killed four people and wounded
several others late Sunday in the Bekaa town of al-Nabi Othman, state-run
National News Agency reported.
“Hizbullah members knew he was about to carry out the attack, and tried to stop
the vehicle. That was when the attacker detonated the vehicle," a Lebanese
security source told Agence France Presse.“The martyrs Abdul Rahman al-Qadi who
hails from al-Ain and Khalil Khalil who hails from al-Fakiha detected a
suspicious Grand Cherokee, so they chased it and asked its driver to stop, which
prompted him to blow it up,” NNA said.
The explosion killed al-Qadi, Khalil as well as al-Nabi Othman residents Wahida
Nazha and Ali Hussein Nazha and left several people wounded, the agency added.
A group calling itself the Baalbek Ahrar al-Sunna Brigade claimed responsibility
on Twitter for the bombing. "Prepare for the transfer of the battle of Yabrud
into Lebanese territory," it said.
For its part, al-Nusra Front in Lebanon claimed responsibility for the attack on
Twitter, describing it as "a quick response to Iran party's bluster following
its extortion of the town of Yabrud."
The attack comes hours after the Syrian army backed by Hizbullah fighters
captured Yabrud, a former rebel bastion in Syria near the Lebanese border.
Hizbullah and Lebanese security forces have said many of the car bombs used in
previous suicide car bombings originated in Yabrud. The Lebanese Red Cross said
the attack took place near a gas station.
A witness told LBCI TV said “the suicide bomber blew up the bomb-laden car which
came from Wadi Rafeq (in Arsal's outskirts) when he was detected by members of a
local party.”
Meanwhile, al-Jadeed television said Hizbullah's top official in the town of al-Ain
A. Q. was killed in the bombing. Hizbullah-dominated areas in eastern Lebanon
and Beirut's southern suburbs have suffered a series of deadly attacks, many of
them suicide car blasts, since the group acknowledged sending fighters into
Syria.
Death Toll in Sectarian Fighting in Tripoli Reaches 13
Naharnet/A soldier was killed in a grenade attack on the army in the northern
city of Tripoli, raising to 13 the death toll from the latest round of clashes
between the rival districts of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen.
The army command said in a communique issued on Sunday that a “grenade attack on
an army personnel carrier in al-Mallouleh area at 9:30 p.m. killed a soldier.”The statement stressed that the army is still responding to the sources of fire
in the northern city.
Battles subsided on Sunday at dawn after a rough night in the city despite
intermittent sniper gunshots operating around Syria street, which separates the
Alawite enclave of Jabal Mohsen from the Sunni district of Bab al-Tabbaneh.President Michel Suleiman expressed regret on Sunday over the victims of the
clashes in Tripoli.
He stressed “on the importance of being aware amid this critical stage that
Lebanon and the Lebanese should be dissociated from its negative
repercussions.”Suleiman reiterated calls from “consensus and dialogue... to
surpass this stage safely.”The state-run National News Agency reported that the
clashes injured around 57 people. Bab al-Tabbaneh residents staged
demonstrations on Saturday night to protest the ongoing situation in the city.
The latest fighting broke out on Thursday after a Sunni man was killed by
unknown gunmen on a motorbike in central Tripoli. But tensions between the
districts have run high for decades, only increasing with the outbreak of the
conflict in Syria in March 2011, where Alawite President Bashar Assad faces a
Sunni-dominated uprising.
The Bab al-Tabbaneh neighborhood backs the revolt, while residents in Jabal
Mohsen support the Syrian regime.
The Lebanese army has deployed in the city, arresting several people overnight
and responding to sources of fire. The violence between two districts of the
city caused local schools to close and cut traffic flow in the city to a
trickle.
Syrian Army, Hizbullah Seize Full Control of Rebel Town Yabrud
Naharnet/The Syrian army and Hizbullah seized full control of the rebel bastion
Yabrud on Sunday, dealing the opposition a heavy symbolic and strategic blow in
the Qalamoun region adjoining the Lebanese border. An Agence France Presse
reporter entered the town and said the Syrian army took total control of it
after a fierce 48-hour-battle with rebels.
"We took total control of the town at 10:00 am (0800 GMT)," an army officer
confirmed to AFP as visibly exhausted soldiers rested on pavements lining the
streets.
"This was the most difficult battle we have fought because the rebels were in
mountains surrounding the town, and in buildings in Yabrud," the officer
said."First we had to occupy the hills, and then on Saturday we entered the town
through the east, up to the sports center. Today we finished the work," he
added.
Regime troops were backed by fighters from Hizbullah and pro-regime militiamen.
While scores of soldiers and fighters wearing different kinds of uniforms could
be seen in Yabrud, not one civilian could be spotted anywhere.Graffiti in the
colors of the pro-revolt flag still adorned the heavily damaged town's walls,
while a fighter jet could be heard overhead.
Earlier, the army announced it had "returned security and stability to the town
of Yabrud and its surroundings in northern Damascus province."
"This new success... is an important step towards securing the border area with
Lebanon, and cutting off the roads and tightening the noose around the remaining
terrorist cells in Damascus province," the military added.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an NGO, said Hizbullah had led the
operation and "taken control of large parts of Yabrud."
The Observatory and sources across the border in Lebanon reported multiple air
raids including with explosive-packed barrel bombs on the area between Yabrud
and Arsal inside Lebanon. The NGO said at least six people were killed in raids
on the area, among them two children. Syrian state television said the army was
targeting "groups of terrorists" fleeing Yabrud in the direction of Arsal. The
fall of Yabrud comes after months of Syrian army operations in the strategic
Qalamoun region, north of Damascus, where the town is situated. Late last year,
the army captured a string of nearby towns before turning its sights to Yabrud.
The town was once home to some 30,000 people, including a Christian minority,
and had been a rebel bastion since early in the Syrian uprising that began in
March 2011. According to Abou Akram, a Syrian army soldier in Yabrud, the
military now aims to take over Flita and Rankus, two rebel positions on the road
to Lebanon. In addition to its symbolic importance, the town is a key strategic
prize because of its proximity to the highway and the Lebanese border, across
which rebels have smuggled fighters and weapons.
The capture of the town, and continuing army operations in the surrounding area,
will sever important supply lines for the rebels as they face several army
advances on different fronts.
"It underlines yet again that the real momentum in the strategic zones of this
conflict is now with the government," said Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at
the Brooking Doha Center.
The town's seizure could also place new pressure on Lebanon's Arsal, which is
hosting at least 51,000 Syrian refugees, many from the Qalamoun region. Sunni
Arsal is largely sympathetic to the Sunni-led uprising, and rebel fighters are
believed to have bases in areas around the town, which are regularly targeted by
Syrian war planes. Arsal municipality official Ahmad Fliti told AFP that the
Syrian air force was staging continuous raids outside the town on Sunday.
Yabrud's capture was celebrated in Damascus by hundreds of residents who took to
the streets to celebrate. And in Lebanon, Hizbullah supporters fired celebratory
gunshots in the air in Beirut and its southern suburbs. Hizbullah is believed to
have played a key role in the town's capture, and Lister said he expected the
group to continue cooperating with regime forces in the area.
"It is likely that joint Hizbullah-Syrian army forces in the area could end up
fanning out with the secondary aim of acquiring near total control of the
Lebanese border," he said.
Hizbullah's involvement in Syria has prompted retaliatory bomb and rocket
attacks by extremist groups against areas in Lebanon sympathetic to the
movement. The attacks have mostly killed civilians. The group and Lebanese
security forces have said many of the car bombs used in those attacks originated
in Yabrud. The town's fall comes a day into the fourth year of Syria's conflict,
which has killed more than 146,000 people.
Source/Agence France PresseNaharnet
Rifi Slams Jubilation over Yabrud, Says to Seek Hizbullah
Syria Exit in State Institutes
Naharnet Newsdesk 16 March 2014/Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi on Sunday announced
that his priority in the new cabinet will be seeking the withdrawal of Hizbullah
from Syria, describing the fall of the Syrian rebel bastion of Yabrud as an
“illusionary” victory and slamming the celebrations of Hizbullah's supporters in
several Lebanese areas. “In the wake of the successive events in Syria, the last
of which was what happened in the town of Yabrud and the cross-border exodus
into Arsal, we reiterate our warning against this rejected involvement in Syrian
affairs, which exposes Lebanon to a definite danger,” Rifi said in a communique.
“Accordingly, the top priority of our work in state institutions will be
demanding the withdrawal of Hizbullah from Syria, as well as everyone who was
involved in the fighting there, in addition to dismantling autonomous security
and deploying the army and security forces on the border, especially in the
Arsal region and its surroundings and on the northern border with Syria,” Rifi
added. Addressing the jubilation in some Lebanese areas that are sympathetic to
Hizbullah over Yabrud's fall, Rifi condemned what he described as “show-off
celebrations.” “Days will prove that these victories are ephemeral and
illusionary,” Rifi said, noting that the jubilation acts have become “a
detestable tradition of dancing over the blood of the innocent Syrian people and
over the ruins of its devastated cities.”Celebrations “lack wisdom and will lead
to aggravating the sentiments of division and hatred,” Rifi warned. The Syrian
army and Hizbullah seized full control of the rebel bastion Yabrud earlier on
Sunday, dealing the opposition a heavy symbolic and strategic blow in the
Qalamoun region adjoining the Lebanese border.
In addition to its symbolic importance, the town is a key strategic prize
because of its proximity to the highway and the Lebanese border, across which
rebels have smuggled fighters and weapons.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based group relying on a
network of contacts inside Syria, said Hizbullah had led the operation.
The town's seizure could also place new pressure on Lebanon's Arsal, which is
hosting at least 51,000 Syrian refugees, many from the Qalamoun region. Sunni
Arsal is largely sympathetic to the Sunni-led uprising, and rebel fighters are
believed to have bases in areas around the town, which are regularly targeted by
Syrian war planes. Yabrud's capture was celebrated in Damascus by hundreds of
residents who took to the streets to celebrate. And in Lebanon, Hizbullah
supporters fired celebratory gunshots in the air in Beirut and its southern
suburbs. They also distributed sweets and roamed streets in jubilant convoys.
Hizbullah's involvement in Syria has prompted retaliatory bomb and rocket
attacks by extremist groups against areas in Lebanon sympathetic to the
movement. The attacks have mostly killed civilians. The group and Lebanese
security forces have said many of the car bombs used in those attacks originated
in Yabrud.
Syria Strikes Outskirts of Arsal amid Reports of Gunmen Entering Town
Naharnet/Syrian warplanes carried out several airstrikes on the outskirts of the
eastern border town of Arsal as media reports said that gunmen from the rebel
bastion of Yabrud fled to the area after the Syrian army seized full control of
the town.
The Syrian airstrike targeted the outskirts of Arsal's mountainous regions.
"Syrian warplanes waged several strikes on Arsal's outskirts, targeting gunmen
fleeing from the frontiers of al-Aqaba and Rantous towards Arsal, leaving
several of them dead or wounded," Lebanon's National News Agency reported.
Earlier, LBCI TV said Syrian aircraft carried out two raids on the al-Maslaha
area in Arsal's peripheries.
Opposition sources said civilians and activists in the town of Yabrud had fled
overnight into neighboring Lebanon.
And Syrian state television said the army was targeting "groups of terrorists"
fleeing Yabrud between the village of Fleita in Syria and the town of Arsal.
Arsal municipal chief Ali al-Hujairi denied that gunmen from the Yabrud area
entered the border town. LBCI reported that more than 1,000 gunmen headed to the
outskirts of the Bekaa town of Arsal as the Lebanese army took extra measures to
prevent armed men from entering the area. The Lebanese army also closed the
Arsal-Labweh road.
Syrian troops had seized on Sunday full control of the rebel bastion Yabrud in
the strategic Qalamun region near the Lebanese border.
The town's seizure is also likely to place new pressure on Arsal, which is
hosting tens of thousands of refugees that have fled the Qalamoun region. Sunni
Arsal is largely sympathetic to the Sunni-led uprising, and rebel fighters are
believed to have bases in areas around the town. Al-Hujairi accused the Syrian
regime of sending explosives-laden vehicles to Lebanon, pointing out that it
aims at inciting sedition in Lebanon.
Hizbullah and Lebanese security forces have alleged that many of the car bombs
used in those attacks originated in Yabrud and were driven across the Lebanese
border.
The municipal chief of Labweh, Ramez Nasser Amhaz, said in comments to LBCI that
the Lebanese state is the sole guarantee for the town, pointing out that it is
capable of arresting gunmen and criminals.
The Syrian air force has regularly carried out air strikes with war planes and
helicopters targeting rebel positions around Arsal.
Source/Agence France Presse
Raad Calls on Cabinet to 'Fight Terror, Hold Timely Presidential Vote'
Naharnet /Head of Hizbullah's Loyalty to Resistance bloc MP Mohammed Raad on
Sunday called on the new cabinet to “exert efforts to achieve what it has
considered as priorities: fighting terrorism and holding the presidential vote
within its constitutional timeframe.”He also urged the cabinet, which adopted a
consensus policy statement Friday after a month of political wrangling, to
“shoulder the responsibility of alleviating the dire living conditions of the
Lebanese.”“We support the cabinet whose policy statement has been finally
'liberated' and which included its commitment to the right of the resistance to
confront occupation and its attacks," Raad said. The top lawmaker also stressed
"the need to endorse a comprehensive national plan to confront the takfiri
terrorism as we continue dialogue over the national defense strategy that must
be implemented to confront the Zionist (Israeli) hostility."
Contacts Ongoing to Urge Phalange Party to Withhold Resignation
Naharnet/Contact are ongoing to convince the Phalange Party to withhold its
threat to resign from Premier Tammam Salam's government over the new Cabinet's
policy statement as it is impeding the agreement between the political
arch-foes.
+According to An Nahar newspaper published on Sunday, the cabinet will receive a
total of 110 lawmakers out of 128 ill grant Salam's government the vote of
confidence despite the Lebanese Forces parliamentary bloc's decision to withhold
it and the forced absence of Head of al-Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri and
his bloc's lawmaker MP Oqab Saqr from the parliamentary session.
Al-Mustaqbal newspaper predicted that the cabinet would receive 113 votes of
confidence despite the Phalange party's threat.
The Phalange party warned following a grueling late meeting on Saturday that its
ministers in Prime Minister Salam's government will resign before a
parliamentary vote of confidence if the policy statement wasn't amended.
Sources told An Nahar newspaper that contacts are ongoing with the Phalange
Party to urge it not to topple the shaky political agreement and to continue its
participation in Salam's cabinet.
The sources pointed out that Western ambassadors also intervened to convince the
Phalange Party to voice its agreement on the new policy statement.
The cabinet's policy statement was adopted by the cabinet late Friday after
almost one month of discussions and a deadlock on the resistance clause.
The three Phalange ministers - Ramzi Greij, Sejaan Qazzi and Alain Hakim – and
Minister Ashraf Rifi, who represents al-Mustaqbal movement in the cabinet have
voiced reservations over the contentious issue of the resistance and the role of
the state in confronting Israel.
"By the virtue of the state's responsibility to preserve Lebanon's sovereignty
and territorial integrity, the government stresses the state's duty and efforts
to liberate the Shebaa Farms, the Kfarshouba Hills and the occupied part of
Ghajar (village) through all legitimate means, while stressing the right of
Lebanese citizens to resist Israeli occupation, repel its aggressions and regain
the occupied land,” the policy statement read.
Speaker Nabih Berri had called parliament to convene on March 19 and 20 to
discuss the statement and later subject cabinet to a vote of confidence.
Russia Temporarily Lifts Siege of Ukraine's Crimea Bases, Putin to Respect
'Choice' of Peninsula People
Naharnet/Ukraine's defense minister said Sunday that Russia had agreed to
temporarily lift its blockade of Ukraine's military bases in Crimea in order to
ease tensions surrounding the peninsula's secession referendum, as Moscow said
it would respect the “choice” of the flashpoint region's residents."Agreements have already been reached between our commanders... on there being
no attempts to blockade our military installations until March 21," Interfax
quoted Defense Minister Igor Tenyukh as saying."We have reached this truce, and I think it will remain in place until March
21."
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday told German Chancellor
Angela Merkel his country would respect the choice of the people of Crimea and
expressed concern over tensions in Ukraine's Russian-speaking regions of south
and southeast.
"It has been stressed that Russia will respect the choice of Crimea's
residents," the Kremlin said in a statement following phone talks between Putin
and Merkel.
"The Russian president once again expressed concern over tensions in Ukraine's
south and southeast being inflamed by radical groups with the connivance of
Kiev's authorities," the Kremlin said in a statement following the talks.
Putin also "stressed that Russia will respect the choice of Crimea's residents"
in Sunday's historic referendum on breaking away from Ukraine to join Russia,
the statement said.
The Russian leader reiterated Moscow's position that the referendum was in line
with international law, it said.
Three people died in recent clashes in the Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainian
cities of Donetsk and Kharkiv.
Russia has said it was considering "many requests" to protect Ukrainians,
raising fears that Russia could move its troops beyond Crimea.
Putin and Merkel also discussed the possibility of sending a "large-scale
mission" from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to monitor
the situation in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.
Separately, Putin's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called on U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry to press the Kiev authorities to take steps to protect
Ukraine's Russian speakers.
"John Kerry assured (Lavrov) that Washington is already conducting all the
necessary work and expects that it will soon bring positive results," the
Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
The two men also agreed to continue to look for ways to defuse the crisis in
Ukraine through "the launch as soon as possible of a constitutional reform with
the support of the international community."
Merkel told Russian President Vladimir Putin Sunday that she backed a bigger
role in Ukraine for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE), her spokesman said.
In the latest in a series of often heated telephone talks between the two
leaders since Russia seized Ukraine's Crimean peninsula earlier this month,
Merkel's office indicated that she and Putin had found a point of agreement.
"The chancellor suggested quickly expanding the OSCE's presence in Ukraine and
sending a greater number of observers to the crisis zones, in particular eastern
Ukraine," her spokesman Steffen Seibert said in a statement summarizing the
conversation.
"The Russian president had a positive assessment of this initiative and agreed
to assign Foreign Minister (Sergei) Lavrov accordingly."
Merkel said she hoped for a decision approving such measures by the Vienna-based
OSCE on Monday.
Seibert said Merkel and Putin had spoken "about the tense security situation in
Ukraine despite their differing takes on the referendum in Crimea and the issue
of territorial integrity and sovereignty."
"The chancellor condemned yesterday's incident in the area of Kherson on the
Ukrainian mainland in which Russian troops occupied a natural gas pumping
station," Seibert said.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry said 80 Russian military personnel had seized a
village on the Arabat Spit called Strilkove with the support of four military
helicopters and three armored personnel carriers.
The peninsula's pro-Kremlin administration later said Strilkove had been "taken
under the control of self-defense forces of Crimea". They were to protect the
pumping station that had allegedly come under attack from a group of Ukrainian
nationalists.
Seibert said Merkel had underlined the "urgency and necessity" of direct talks
between the Russian and Ukrainian governments "to resolve the outstanding
problems."Also on Sunday, Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called for foreign
observers from the OSCE to be sent "urgently" to the east and south of the
country.
In a statement, the Kiev government said it had "asked that the OSCE urgently
send a monitoring mission to Ukraine."
"Their mandate should include the east and south of Ukraine, including Crimea,"
Yatsenyuk added in the statement, as the Black Sea peninsula voted in a
referendum widely expected to favor its split from Ukraine and attachment to
Russia.
"I hope this decision can be voted at an extraordinary session of the OSCE,"
Yatsenyuk added.
More than 50 observers from the Vienna-based Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) already attempted to enter Crimea two weeks ago in
a bid to defuse tensions in the autonomous region, but were barred entry on
repeated occasion at border checkpoints.SourceAgence France Presse
US official: Iran pursuing banned items for nuclear,
missile work
Reuters/Ynetnews 03.16.14
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4499682,00.html
State Dept. official says Tehran is still 'very actively' pursuing clandestine
nuclear procurement efforts by setting up front companies and falsifying
documents. DUBAI - Iran has pursued a longstanding effort to buy banned
components for its nuclear and missile programs in recent months, a US official
said on Sunday, a period when it struck an interim deal with major powers to
limit its disputed atomic activity.
Vann Van Diepen, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International
Security and Non-Proliferation, said Iran was still "very actively" creating
front companies and engaging in other activity to conceal procurements.
The reported supplies do not contravene last year's breakthrough agreement
between Tehran and six world powers to curb its most sensitive atomic activity
in exchange for some limited easing of sanctions damaging its economy. But such
trade would breach a 2006 UN embargo banning the provision by any nation to Iran
of materials related to its nuclear and missile development work. Western
experts say such low-profile procurement efforts by Iran date back many years,
perhaps decades in the case of its nuclear activity.
Asked if he had seen a change in Iranian procurement behaviour in the past six
to 12 months, a period that has seen a cautious thaw in US-Iranian relations
after decades of hostility, Van Diepen replied: "The short answer is no.
"They still continue very actively trying to procure items for their nuclear
program and missile program and other program," he told Reuters in an interview.
"We continue to see them very actively setting up and operating through front
companies, falsifying documentation, engaging in multiple levels of
trans-shipment ... to put more apparent distance between where the item
originally came from and where it is ultimately going."
Asked for reaction to the allegation, a senior Iranian official replied: "No
comment".
Van Diepen did not say what sort of components Iran had sought to obtain or
which part of a government known for having competing hardline and moderate
factions was responsible. In the past, Western officials said Iran's elite
Revolutionary Guards and the Defense Ministry - both hotbeds of opposition to
any rapprochement with the West - were believed to control clandestine nuclear
procurement efforts.
Iran denies Western allegations that it has long sought covertly to develop the
means to produce nuclear weapons, saying its uranium enrichment program is
solely a peaceful endeavour to yield electricity as well as isotopes for medical
treatments.
Deterrent
Diplomats have said that Iran is meeting its commitments under the November
deal, under which Iran suspended its higher-grade enrichment and stopped
increasing its capacity to produce low-refined uranium, among other steps.
Uranium forms the core of a nuclear bomb if enriched to a high fissile purity.
The six-month agreement, which took effect on January 20 this year, was designed
to buy time for talks on a final settlement defining the overall scope of Iran's
nuclear work to end fears that it could be diverted to military ends.
Those talks got under way in Vienna last month and a second round at the
political director level will be held on March 18-19, also in the Austrian
capital. The aim is to reach an agreement by late July, although that deadline
can be extended by another half year if both sides agree.
Iran has one of the biggest missile programs in the Middle East, regarding such
weapons as an important deterrent and retaliatory force against US and other
adversaries - primarily Gulf Arabs - in the region in the event of war.
Its efforts to develop, test and field ballistic missiles, and build a space
launch capability, have helped drive billions of dollars of US ballistic missile
defense expenditure, and contributed to Israel's threats of possible pre-emptive
military action against Iranian nuclear installations.
Since Iran is not a self-sufficient manufacturer of missiles, the expansion of
its inventory depends on the import of goods and materiel sourced abroad.
Van Diepen said that while there was no direct link between the level of Iranian
illicit procurement and the negotiations on a settlement to the nuclear dispute,
"obviously if the negotiations succeed then there should therefore be a
corresponding decrease in Iranian proliferation activity."
82 senators outline 'acceptable' terms for Iran deal in letter to Obama
By MICHAEL WILNER 03/16/2014/J.Post/REUTERS
http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/82-senators-outline-acceptable-terms-for-Iran-deal-in-letter-to-Obama-345537
WASHINGTON -- A significant majority of US Senate members have now signed a
letter to US President Barack Obama outlining terms of a final agreement on
Iran's nuclear program that they would find acceptable.
82 senators say they hope diplomatic efforts succeed in Vienna with Iran over
the next four months – but also call for the “rapid and dramatic” expansion of
sanctions if negotiations fail.
The letter began circulating less than two weeks ago, and has attracted 76
signatories since its release. Senate aides tell The Jerusalem Post the letter
will be sent to the White House early this week.
A source with a pro-Israel organization characterized the letter's message as "a
very significant statement of Senate policy in that it specifies the core
principles in final agreement."
World powers are attempting to reach a comprehensive solution to the
longstanding nuclear crisis with Iran, now over a decade old, through peaceful
means. The United States has recently bolstered its staff for the negotiations,
which the president and Secretary of State John Kerry consider the "best chance"
at resolving the crisis.
Support for the letter has been a top priority of the American Israel Public
Affairs Committee since its annual policy conference earlier this month.
“We believe that Iran has no inherent right to enrichment under the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty,” the letter reads. “We believe any agreement must
dismantle Iran’s nuclear weapons program and prevent it from ever having a
uranium or plutonium path to a nuclear bomb.”The letter also calls for the
closure of Fordow, Arak and Parchin – key facilities in Iran’s nuclear program –
in its list of demands.
The Obama administration has entered negotiations with a similar list, though
senior officials are not demanding the full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear
infrastructure.
On a conference call with reporters on Friday, one senior administration
official said the White House is willing to tolerate a small, highly regulated
Iranian nuclear program that is guaranteed peaceful through strict verification
and oversight measures. The language of the letter does not explicitly rule out
these terms: it calls on Iran’s nuclear “weapons” program to be fully
dismantled, not necessarily all of its nuclear work.
“Should an acceptable final agreement be reached, your administration will need
to work together with Congress to enact implementing legislation to provide
longer term sanctions relief beyond existing waiver authorities – either through
suspension, repeal or amendment of statutory sanctions,” the letter reads.
Crimea votes to quit Ukraine under guns of Russian tanks
DEBKAfile Special Report March 15, 2014/Ahead of the controversial Crimean
referendum taking place Sunday, March 16, the Ukraine interim government claimed
Saturday that its forces had repelled a Russian military operation to invade
Strikove in the Kherson province adjoining the peninsula. This province is
strategically valuable because it is the source of Crimea’s water and electric
power, which Kiev could cut off. But only in theory, because then Moscow would
equally cut off gas to Kiev.
The Kiev claim of a military engagement with the Russians is roughly as credible
as its account of 80,000 Russian troops massed on the borders of Crimea and
poised to invade additional parts of eastern Ukraine Monday, the day after the
referendum. The interim parliament was accordingly summoned into emergency
session Monday at 10:00 a.m. Kiev time.
debkafile’s military sources report this figure is highly inflated. There are no
signs of an imminent Russian invasion; nor a call-up of reserves to fill out the
Russian units permanently stationed in areas close to the Ukrainian border. The
Russian army’s only unusual posture in the days leading up to the referendum was
to stage military exercises and keep the small units taking part constantly on
the move - so as to create the impression of a large army in motion. They also
ran convoys of 10-15 armored trucks back and forth, which look massive when
filmed.
These movements were intended as psychological pressure to deter Kiev and the
West from any plans they might entertain to disrupt the referendum or interfere
with its outcome.
Moscow’s only blatant military act in the run-up to the vote occurred Friday,
March 14, when a Russian cyber unit intercepted a US MQ-5B Hunter drone 12,000
feet over the Crimean peninsula by using radio-electronic technology to break
its link with its US operators. The drone was downed almost intact.
This was a hands-off warning from President Vladimir Putin to Washington on the
Crimean referendum. It underlined the message Foreign Minister Sergey Lavov
carried to US Secretary of State John Kerry when they met in London Friday,
which was: “We must respect the will of the Crimean people in the forthcoming
referendum” – meaning its will to join Russia.
Kerry repeated Obama’s message that the US deemed the referendum illegal and
would not accept its outcome.
After talking for six hours, the two ministers were unable to bridge the gap.
They could only agree to pick up their dialogue from Monday, when the vote was
out of the way, when Putin’s intentions for Ukraine’s future became know and
after the European Union’s ruling institutions had met to punish Russia by
fairly limited sanctions.
After that, the two big powers might take another stab at reaching a compromise
for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, neither was giving any quarter. Saturday night, the US tabled a
resolution at the UN Security Council declaring the referendum invalid and
urging countries not to recognize the results. Russia predictably cast its veto
and China abstained. US Ambassador UN Samantha Power said the vote highlighted
Russia’s isolation.
By Sunday, the Crimeans were set for their referendum with no discernible
obstacle to deter them.
Our military sources saw no evidence of unusual military preparedness among
Ukraine’s European neighbors to the west, in US bases on the continent, or in
the Ukrainian army. No one in the West is sure up until now what proportion of
its commanders will obey the interim government at crunch time and carry out its
orders.
Partly, because of this uncertainty, President Barack Obama turned the Ukraine
Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyui down during his visit to the White House
Wednesday, March 12, when he requested US weapons and financial aid for his
armed forces. He also asked for access to US intelligence coverage of Russian
military movements.
All that the US president was ready to offer was iron rations for Ukrainian
troops. If nothing else, at least they won’t go hungry.
But one or more of the forces currently in suspended animation may snap into
unforeseen action during the referendum or after it's over..
Mahmoud Abbas and the 'Jewish State'
Robert Satloff/Foreign Policy
March 14, 2014
In refusing to recognize Israel as the "Jewish state," the Palestinian leader is
denying a fact that even Arafat was willing to admit.
On my desk sits a replica of a tourist guide printed in 1924 by the Supreme
Muslim Council of Jerusalem, the highest Muslim communal body in Palestine.
Thousands of travelers to the Holy Land in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s learned
from this guide that Solomon's Temple, the holiest site in Judaism, was located
on the site now occupied by the Haram al-Sharif, or "Noble Enclosure," which
includes the Dome of the Rock and the al-Aqsa Mosque.
The fact that the head of the Supreme Muslim Council was Hajj Amin al-Husseini,
the Britain-appointed mufti of Jerusalem and father of Palestinian nationalism
who later infamously collaborated with the Nazis, lent special credence to this
statement of Muslim recognition of historic Jewish connection to Jerusalem.
Flash forward to July 2000, when President Bill Clinton hosted a fateful peace
summit at Camp David. In one critical encounter, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat
-- who effectively inherited the mantle of leadership from him -- rejected what
his mentor had affirmed decades earlier. As Middle East peace envoy Dennis Ross
later recalled, Arafat told Clinton that Solomon's Temple was never in
Jerusalem. If any Jewish temple existed, Arafat suggested, it was in the West
Bank town of Nablus. The summit collapsed in acrimony. Within weeks,
Palestinians launched the Second Intifada, which cost thousands of lives and
dealt prospects for peace a terrible blow.
As President Barack Obama prepares to host Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
at the White House on Monday, amid a violent flare-up of tensions between Israel
and Islamic extremists in Gaza, history may be poised to repeat itself. Once
again, a Palestinian leader is taking an even more rejectionist position than
his predecessor.
Today's issue is the question of the "Jewish state." This is shorthand for
Israel's demand that Palestinians specifically accept that the goal of current
diplomacy is the mutual recognition of two independent, sovereign states --
Palestine, the nation-state of the Palestinian people, and Israel, the
nation-state of the Jewish people. Abbas affirmed last week that he would flatly
refuse such a formula: "No way," he said. The fact that he is, as Obama has
said, the most moderate Palestinian leader Israel has ever dealt with only lends
gravity to the fact that he has adopted such a hardline view.
On the surface, it is difficult to understand what all the ruckus is about.
Israel, of course, was built by Jews as a haven for Jews. The 1947 U.N.
resolution that gave international imprimatur to the partition of
British-mandated Palestine mentioned the phrase "Jewish state" dozens of times.
Surveys over the last decade by respected Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki
show that 40 to 52 percent of Palestinians would accept recognition of Israel as
the "Jewish state" -- levels of support, it is important to note, achieved
without Abbas's public endorsement.
Even Arafat, the uber-nationalist, understood this. The same Arafat who rejected
the idea of a historic Jewish connection to Jerusalem and orchestrated numerous
terrorist attacks in his bitter fight against Israel accepted the contemporary
reality that Israel -- whether he liked it or not -- was the "Jewish state." And
he said so publicly, on at least three occasions.
On Nov. 18, 1988, in the early days of the first Palestinian uprising, Arafat
convened the Palestine National Council, the proto-parliament of the Palestine
Liberation Organization (PLO), to issue a declaration of independence. That
document, a Palestinian hybrid of the American and Israeli declarations of
independence, proclaimed the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the
United Nations resolution "which partitioned Palestine into an Arab and a Jewish
state."
This description was not simply a throwaway line, but rather the considered
position of the Palestinian leadership at the time. On Dec. 8, 1988, the New
York Times reported on a press conference Arafat held with several American
peace activists. At the event, Arafat said: "We accept two states, the Palestine
state and the Jewish state of Israel."
Sixteen years later, in an interview published on June 17, 2004, Arafat
reaffirmed his position. Asked by Israel's liberal daily newspaper Haaretz if he
understood that "Israel has to keep being a Jewish state," the PLO leader
replied, "Definitely." He later said to the interviewer that it was "clear and
obvious" that the Palestine refugee problem needs to be resolved in a way that
does not change the Jewish character of Israel through an influx of millions of
returning Palestinians.
Reasonably enough, Palestinians are asking today why Israel insists on them
recognizing its status as the "Jewish state," when past Israeli leaders did not
make this demand in peace talks with Egypt or Jordan. The reason is because
conflicts with those countries were, by the time of peace talks, essentially
territorial disputes, resolved through the equitable drawing of boundaries and
the creation of mutually satisfactory security arrangements.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is deeper -- it is existential. While many
Palestinians suspect that Israel will forever deny them independence, deep in
the minds of many Israelis is the idea that Palestinians have a long-term plan
to destroy Israel. Formal recognition of Israel as the rightful national home of
the Jewish people, which would exist side by side with the rightful national
home of the Palestinian people, would go far toward calming such fears. The fact
that Abbas still refuses to offer this recognition only deepens those fears.
Perhaps Abbas's refusal is tactical -- an attempt to extract concessions from
Israel in exchange for saying the same words Arafat uttered years ago. Or
perhaps his refusal is as real and portentous as Arafat's refusal to accept a
Jewish connection to Jerusalem.
To his credit, Obama has understood the centrality of the "Jewish state" issue.
Despite the pressure he has exerted on Israel to stop building in Jerusalem,
release jailed terrorists, or make painful concessions in peace talks, the
president has never wavered from his characterization of "the Jewish state of
Israel."
That position will be put to the test in Obama's meeting with Abbas on Monday.
The president will face a choice: He can recite how even the iconic Arafat
recognized Israel as the Jewish state, remind Abbas of the years lost and lives
wasted since the last time a Palestinian leader took a harder line than his
predecessor, and -- taking a page from his recent public warnings to Israel --
threaten Abbas with a dire future of isolation and irrelevance if he doesn't
grab this opportunity for peace. Or alternatively, he could punt -- letting
Abbas keep both the accolades of a moderate and the positions of a rejectionist.
For a president confronted elsewhere by metaphors of the past -- Vladimir Putin
as Adolf Hitler, the return of the Cold War -- how Obama deals with the "Jewish
state" issue in his meeting with Abbas will determine whether, in the
Israeli-Palestinian context, history is moving forward or once again moving
backward.
*Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute.
US, Russian, Chinese military
satellites hunt MH370 over Central Asia. Is it readied for a terrorist attack?
DEBKAfile Special Report March 16, 2014/The US, Russia and China
Sunday, March 16 contributed their military satellites to the search for the
Malaysian Boeing 777, missing without a trace for nine days with 239 people
aboard. US drones have also been diverted from the Afghanistan war to the hunt,
which is focusing increasingly on the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.
The backgrounds of the pilot and co-pilot and the rest of the crew are under
rigorous investigation for leads. Scrutiny of the passengers, 153 of whom are
Chinese, is slow since not all the foreign governments have come up with answers
to questions about their nationals.
The multinational investigation is looking closely at a number of conjectures:
1. The contents of the plane’s cargo: Did it contain some illicit freight that
would have given one or more hijackers a motive to seize control of the plane,
force it to land at a remote spot and vanish with their prize?
That scenario would leave the fate of the passengers and crew up in the air.
They may still be alive and marooned in some wild corner of the world.
2. Many parts of the Silk Road nations of Kirgizstan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are broad desert wastelands. They all have abandoned
derelict military and air bases left over from the defunct Soviet empire.
Military satellites and drones manned by experts have the best chance of
pinpointing MH370 in this sort of country.
It is now believed that the last contact with MH370 was beamed from the ground,
meaning that the plane had not spent hours aloft but somewhere on land, which is
why the Malaysian transport minister disclosed Sunday that the search now
covered “areas of land in 11 countries.”
3. The cockpit is being painstakingly searched for clues. One theory is that the
hijackers lurked in the plane before the passengers boarded after they were
smuggled in through the cargo hold. They may have belonged to the East Turkestan
Liberation Organization-ETLO, the Uyghur separatist movement of the northwest
Chinese province of Xinjiang.
This conjecture opens up more complex potentials, such as the possible refueling
of the airliner for use by the hijackers as an instrument of deadly massacre,
echoing the 9/11 atrocities perpetrated by al Qaeda against New York and
Washington.
Speculation on those lines has brought the US, Russia and China into the heart
of the search and the investigation.
4. Another possibility under consideration is a sudden cyber attack on the
plane. These methods are advanced enough these days to control, navigate and
bring a large aircraft 75 meters long with a 61-meter wing span like the Boeing
777 down to earth almost intact at a preset location.
Iran, apparently with Chinese expert assistance, managed to bring down the
RQ-170 Sentinel, America’s most secret UAV, by this method. The Israeli army
downed an Iranian drone launched from Lebanon by an Iranian Revolutionary Guards
cyber team in October, 2012.
Loth to expose its advanced cyber capabilities, Israel held to the story that
the Iranian drone was shot down by its fighter jets.
If the Malaysian airliner was indeed commandeered by this means, the attackers
may not have intended to go all the way and were forced to think fast and decide
how to end the episode without leaving incriminating leads behind them. Dumping
the plane in a remote place would answer this need.
5. US intelligence and security investigators were focusing Sunday on the two
pilots, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, who has logged 18,000 flying hrs. on similar
aircraft, and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27, for answers to the key conundrums
of the mystery.
Both their homes in Kuala Lumpur have been searched. The flight simulator found
in the captain’s home is being carefully checked for telltale flight routes.
Any possibly links in the backgrounds of the pilots to potential hijackers or
terrorists would help solve the mystery of the vanished Malaysian airliner and
provide a lead to its fate.
China and the future alliance with
Saudi Arabia
Sunday, 16 March 2014
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya
Difficult years lie ahead, perhaps five or even 10 years. This future requires a
new regional and international approach. The U.S. may no longer have the
prominent role it garnered after becoming the major player following World War
II and Europe will become more concerned regarding its southern neighbors in
northern Africa. Other countries, such as those in the Arab Gulf, may have to
create small blocs to defend themselves. They may also have to establish
additional alliances based on big interests. Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin
Abdulaziz’s visit to China is of additional interest. Saudi Arabia is special to
China as it is a prominent partner. On a daily basis, China buys more than one
million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia. Also, Saudi Arabia remains the
spiritual country of reference for the Chinese Muslim minority. I was present on
this visit to China. Before now, I witnessed Saudi political openness towards
China when King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz decided that China would be the first
country he visited after assuming governance. King Abdulaziz thus ended a long
era of ruptured relations between the two states. Oil and large scale
investments are the foundation of a long-term relationship between China and
Saudi Arabia
The problem is that the Chinese don’t like politics much. So, the important
question is: how can one seeking to protect his interests depend on this
sleeping dragon? Countries that will confront new challenges over the next few
years will have to protect their interests. Prominent countries such as those in
Europe and China know that relations with stable countries are better than
relations with erratic countries or with countries such as Iran. There are
several signs which indicate China’s desire to expand the scope of its strategic
interests and not just the scope of its purchases. Oil and large scale
investments are the foundation of a long-term relationship between China and
Saudi Arabia.
Expanding relations with China
The Saudi delegation, which ends its visit on Sunday, wants to expand relations
with China. This may balance out Saudi Arabia’s oil exports at a time when the
U.S. says it is no longer capable of buying oil from the Gulf as it has enough
shale oil. China itself is in a state of transition similar to countries like
Saudi Arabia – it is undergoing a gradual transition, one that may appear slow.
Although it has been 20 years since my first visit to China, the country
continues to be mysterious and interesting. Almost everything has changed in
Beijing. When I first visited, Beijing’s wide streets were packed with bicycles.
There were tens of thousands of them and very few cars. A dark cloud from the
coal used in heating systems covered the city. However China, its people and its
ideology have changed. Despite this, the regime, which staged a
counter-revolution, hasn’t and it is trying to make a gradual transition whilst
avoiding chaos. This is how China managed to become one of the richest and
strongest economies in the world. It is now at a point where it wants access to
new markets and wants to cement new alliances.
This does not necessarily mean that China will replace America, but it will be
an important player on the world stage. Also, its philosophy and practices are
different to Russia’s, which exposed its ugly face wherever it intervened.
**This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on March 16, 2014.
Syria’s messy transformation enters a
fourth year
Sunday, 16 March 2014
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya
A slew of articles, analyses and commentary appeared on the third anniversary of
the Arab Spring striking Syria. The facts and figures speak for themselves:
Syria is a transformed state, bordering on failure. A good metaphor for Syria is
the Syrian foreign minister who was rushed to hospital last week for heart
surgery; the patient, like the country, is quite ill at this time.
Syria’s transformation from a Baathist-Alawite state into a series of
ungovernable regions with a functioning central government is illustrative of a
clear shift. The Syrian state no longer exists: the multiple terrorist and
insurgent groups on the ground, the areas they hold, and their waning and waxing
aspirations between themselves and towards President Assad’s government are
never static.
With certainty, what we can really say about Syria after three years of conflict
is that there is no going back. Evolution towards a new reality in the area
“formally known as Syria” is occurring at speed.
Instability, refugee flows and economic disparity plague Syria to this day, as
its morphs into a new arena of warfare. Assad and his people know this, as do
his supporters, and they will continue to fight on, both politically and
militarily.
A mess with many to blame
Diplomatic measures to deal with the Syrian situation after three years are a
mess, with many states to blame. They need not be mentioned but we know who they
are. These states, the Syrian opposition and the slew of international and
regional organizations involved are all talking past each other.
The Geneva process is muddled. Indeed, the biblical Tower of Babel is now a
political reality in the core of the Near East as a “confusion of tongues”
reigns supreme.
Diplomatic measures to deal with the Syrian situation after three years are a
mess, with many states to blame
Three years into the Syrian morass, the next steps are muddy. There is talk of
new aggressiveness by Russia on the Syrian issue because of the Kremlin’s
policies and actions against Ukraine and Crimea. There is also a shift in Saudi
foreign policy to enact a new formula to support anti-Assad and anti-al-Qaeda
actors on the ground. Riyadh is also wooing China to become more involved at the
expense of Russia. Iran continues to support Assad and wants inclusion in any
current and future diplomatic processes while wooing Oman and Qatar out of GCC
unity. U.S. President Barak Obama is visiting Saudi Arabia and perhaps other
states in the region to discuss Syria and other security issues with offers that
Arab officials are not really sure of—it is likely that even those around the
most powerful chief executive in the world will need to put forward a clear
policy that is forward thinking and out of the box. The outcome may not be as
productive as hoped a few weeks ago.
The ‘Syrian Effect’
The “Syrian Effect” on neighboring countries is spreading violence, revenge, and
challenging the ability to govern, opening up old wounds and creating fresh
lacerations against the innocent. The Geneva peace process seems to be turned
inside out and upside down by events of the past few weeks, including Russia’s
actions and Qatar’s isolation within the GCC. Arab officials are saying that the
Saudi kingdom is ready to deploy thousands of trained assets on the ground in
Syria to capture tracks of Syrian land in a bid to negotiate with Assad a type
of cease-fire. We are already witnessing similar agreements between the
government and resistance groups in and around Damascus. Thus, a major reset in
diplomatic circles based on the above phenomena, is necessary.
Three years into the Syrian conflict, the rump Alawite state is planning for
presidential elections this summer. Recently, the Syrian Parliament approved a
new election law allowing multiple candidates to run in elections but the rules
stipulate that those running for office must be residents – that excludes most
opposition leaders. U.N. mediator Lakhdar Brahimi stated that holding an
election would jeopardize the Geneva process. Clearly, Assad and Company are
planning to construct a new state so, like the Frank Sinatra song, the Syrian
President can claim “I Did It My Way.”
Overall, there are key questions on what Syria will look like by the fourth
anniversary in one year’s time. Will there be a new Syrian state based on a
confessional system? Will Syria still be fractured as it is now? On that
anniversary, how many more lives will be shattered and lost? Will the Syrian
disaster be pushed to the back pages of newspapers and media headlines because
of other global threats and emergencies? On this third anniversary, there are
more questions than answers regarding this seriously ill country.