Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources For June 29/14
When things fall apart in Iraq and the Levant/By: Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/June 29/14
Divided we stand/By: Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/June 29/14
Will terrorism in
Lebanon bring in a
new president/By:
Michael Young/Now
Lebanon/June 29/14
What does the
Bible say about
angels/June 29/14
Why ISIS Won’t Take
Baghdad/By: Jamie
Dettmer/29 June/14
The War between
ISIS and al-Qaeda
for Supremacy of the
Global Jihadist
Movement/Aaron Y.
Zelin/June 29/14
An era of new regional mandates in the Arab world/By: Eyad Abu Shakra/Al Arabiya/June 29/14
Reports From
Miscellaneous
Sources For June
29/14
Lebanese Related
News
US House panel set to approve Hezbollah sanctions bill
ISIS fears in
Lebanon on the rise
Lebanese Army
Discovers Explosives
Cache in Cave in
Fnaideq
Report: Surveillance Towers to Be Set up to Monitor Illegal Border-Crossings
Lebanon Announces 3-Day Mourning over Solh's Passing
Report: Hariri, Kerry Meeting May Create New Dynamic over Presidential Elections
Aoun Expected to Launch Initiative on Presidential Elections
Amal cancels annual
iftar over security
threats
Shiite Organizations
Cancel Daily Iftars
over Security Fears
Vatican Delegation
Visits Lebanon, Al-Rahi
Heads on Foreign
Tour over
Presidential
Elections
Tensions high in
Sidon after sheikh
attacked
Berri: Libya wary to
uncover former
regime crimes
Jounieh festival
kicks off with
firework show
Report: ISIL Selling
Oil to Finance
Terrorist
Operations, Army,
Security Forces Main
Targets in Lebanon
Miscellaneous
Reports And News
For June 29/14
UN experts confirm: Arms shipment seized by Israel in March came from Iran
Fear Israel would be dragged into war with ISIS
IAF strikes four terror targets in Gaza in response to earlier rocket fire
Saudi king and
Kerry: will press
Sunnis to join Iraq
gov.
Report: Israel, US
prepared to help
Jordan fight ISIS
Egypt arrests 15
ISIS militants in
Sinai
Clashes near Tikrit
as Iraq Troops
Launch Fightback
Why ISIS Won’t Take
Baghdad/By: Jamie
Dettmer/29 June/14
Pakistani Jets Kill
18 in Anti-Militant
Offensive
Egypt to Try Nearly 100 Morsi Backers over Bombing, Murders
Russia Will Not Sit Idly By as Jihadists Press Iraq Assault
U.S. Flying Armed Drones over Baghdad
Unprecedented Kurdish Peshmerga Deployment in Iraq
Pakistan family slits throats of young couple over love marriage
US
House panel set to
approve Hezbollah
sanctions bill
Yitzhak Benhorin
Published: 06.28.14,
10:52 / Ynetnews
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4535408,00.html
The Hezbollah
International
Financing Prevention
Act will prevent the
Lebanon-based
terrorist group from
receiving financing
through
international
organizations.
WASHINGTON - The US
House Foreign
Affairs Committee is
completing
legislation that
would put
intensified
financial pressure
on Hezbollah. The
Hezbollah
International
Financing Prevention
Act of 2014 will
prevent the
Lebanon-based Shia
terrorist group from
receiving financing
through
international
institutions. The
bill, introduced by
US representatives
Mark Meadows and
Brad Schneider will
force international
institutions to
choose between
conducting business
with Hezbollah or
the United States.
Hezbollah is already
defined as a
terrorist
organization by US
law, and American
institutions are not
permitted to engage
in business with the
organization.
However, the new
legislation would
prohibit
international
institutions from
entering into
financial dealings
with the
organization,
including in Lebanon
itself.
According to the
law, the
institutions that
will continue doing
business with the
organization will be
blacklisted and will
have heavy sanctions
imposed on them.
Four years ago, a
similar law was
passed that formed
the basis for the
global financial
sanctions that
caused severe damage
to Iran's economy
and led to a sharp
devaluation of the
local currency. The
new version of the
bill that targets
Hezbollah was
presented for the
first time several
months ago and is
now in the final
stages for approval.
The legislation
introduced by US
lawmakers determines
that Hezbollah poses
a direct threat to
the security of the
United States and
Israel, taking into
consideration the
fact that the
organization killed
more Americans than
any other terrorist
organization, apart
from al-Qaeda. In
addition, it was
noted that the
organization
dominates Lebanon's
government, fought
on behalf of the
Assad regime in
Syrian and is in
possession of more
than 100,000
rockets. The
American move may
also influence a
similar step on the
part of the European
Union, which already
classifies the
military wing of
Hamas as a terrorist
organization. The
United States
controls a major
part of the global
financial market and
such legislation
will significantly
damage Hezbollah's
ability to operate
worldwide. Today,
the organization
holds money in banks
in Europe and Latin
America. The
Committee Chairman
Ed Royce said, “The
threat posed by
Hezbollah’s global
operations has
exploded.
Underpinning that
development is a
financing and
logistical network.
In 2011, we saw the
tip of the iceberg
when a massive
Hezbollah drug and
money laundering
operation was
uncovered. "To deter
dealings with
Hezbollah, the bill
targets those
financial
institutions that
knowingly do
business with what
has been called the
“A-team” of
terrorists
ISIS
fears in Lebanon on
the rise
http://www.aawsat.net/2014/06/article55333757
Asharq Al-Awsat
Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat—Fears
continue to spread
in Lebanon about the
presence of the
Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) after the
Sunni militant group
claimed
responsibility for
Wednesday’s attack
on a central Beirut
hotel, the third
such attack in two
weeks. The militant
group has expanded
its operations in
both Syria and Iraq,
giving rise to fears
that it could also
seek to start an
insurgency against
the Lebanese
government at a time
when the country
still has no
president. In a
statement published
on Friday, ISIS
announced that a
Saudi suicide bomber
had attacked the
Duroy Hotel in
central Beirut.
Three police
officers were
wounded in the
attack. “Two lions
of ISIS, who
infiltrated the city
of Beirut at the
Duroy Hotel, engaged
a group from the
General Security
service loyal to the
Party of Satan,” the
statement said,
referring to Shi’ite
militia Hezbollah.
The statement said
that ISIS would
continue its attacks
on Hezbollah, adding
“that this is the
first rain, and we
tell you that there
are hundreds of
people seeking
suicide who love the
blood of
rejectionists,” a
derogatory term used
by radical Sunnis to
describe Shi’ites.
The Iran-backed
Shi’ite militia has
been heavily
criticized for its
involvement in the
Syrian crisis and
backing for the
Bashar Al-Assad
regime, amid fears
that Sunni Islamists
could seek to target
Hezbollah at home
for its role in
Syria. The Syrian
crisis has divided
the Lebanese people,
with Shi’ites and
Maronite Christians
mostly supporting
Assad and Sunnis
sympathizing with
the rebels.
Speaking to Asharq
Al-Awsat, a senior
member of the
Islamist Hizb Al-Tahrir
(Liberation Party),
Sheikh Mohamed
Ibrahim,
acknowledged that
many Lebanese Sunnis
“sympathize” with
ISIS. He blamed the
radicalization of
Lebanese Sunni youth
on “the Lebanese
government and its
wrongful practices,
most importantly the
random arrests it
carried out in
Tripoli.”
Lebanon’s second
city has become
increasingly divided
along sectarian
lines since the
outbreak of the
Syrian conflict,
with the majority
Sunni community
backing rebels
across the border,
to the anger of the
Alawite and Shi’ite
minorities. “I do
not deny that some
of the youth are
reacting [to
Hezbollah] in a
wrong manner, but
the talk in the
street of Lebanon’s
authorities being
subjugated to
Hezbollah
strengthens [public]
support for
extremist
organizations,”
Ibrahim added.
The fears of Sunni
radicalization come
as Islamists
residing in the Ain
Al-Hilweh
Palestinian refugee
camp in Sidon raised
a banner on Saturday
praising ISIS,
according to local
media.
“O God, grant
victory to our
brothers, the
mujaheddin in the
Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria and
Lebanon,” the banner
read. Retaliatory
attacks by Sunni
Islamist groups on
Hezbollah-dominated
areas have increased
greatly since 2012,
including an attack
on the headquarters
of the Iranian
embassy in Beirut in
November 2013.
Fears over a renewal
of attacks targeting
Shi’ites have
prompted the
cancellation of this
year’s public Iftar,
or fast-breaking,
dinners hosted by
Hezbollah during the
Muslim holy month of
Ramadan.
“There is no reason
to panic, but at the
same time we must be
cautious,
particularly as
terrorists may
target places
outside their
repertoire of
targets in the
Hezbollah-dominated
areas,” a source
close to Hezbollah
speaking to Asharq
Al-Awsat on the
condition of
anonymity said.
The source did not
rule out the
possibility of
“targeting
Sunni-majority areas
with the aim of
provoking tensions,”
adding that
“[Public] Iftar
dinners may be a
target of
terrorism.”
Lebanese political
expert Talal Atrissi
attributed ISIS’s
crossing the borders
into Lebanon to “the
gains it has made in
Iraq, after taking
over Mosul and
advancing towards
other areas, and to
its failure to
topple the [Assad]
regime and establish
an Islamic caliphate
in Syria.”Atrissi
told Asharq Al-Awsat
that the
deteriorating
security in Iraq
“has encouraged
[ISIS] to spread” to
the rest of the
region. But he
maintained that the
group’s influence in
Lebanon will be
different from that
in Iraq and Syria
and “will remain
limited within the
framework of
directing strikes
against Hezbollah
and the Lebanese
military.”
Nazeer Rida and
Paula Astih reported
from Beirut.
Vatican Delegation
Visits Lebanon, Al-Rahi
Heads on Foreign
Tour over
Presidential
Elections
Naharnet /The
Vatican plans to
dispatch a
delegation to
Lebanon in a bid to
prompt Lebanese
officials into
ending the
presidential vacuum,
amid reports that
Maronite Patriarch
Beshara al-Rahi also
plans a trip to
several major
countries to up
pressures to elect a
president. The
Vatican plans to
send a delegation to
Beirut next week,
conveying Pope
Francis' concern “on
hurdles delaying the
presidential
elections in light
of the inflamed
situation in the
region,” al-Liwaa
daily reported on
Saturday. The
delegation is set to
meet several
Lebanese officials
in a bid to find
ways that could end
the almost
month-long
presidential vacuum
in the top Christian
post in Lebanon. A
similar delegation
had visited Lebanon
in April and toured
various officials
focusing on a number
of pressing issues
including the
necessity to hold
the presidential
elections on time
“because vacuum
harms the
presidential post
and the Christians
as well.”In that
regard, al-Rahi “may
travel to several
major power
countries to push
further the efforts
to elect a
president,” added
the daily. The
Patriarch could
“visit Washington
for consultations
with officials to
pave way for a good
environment that
could end up with
electing a
president.”
Al-Rahi is set to
travel to Australia
in October in a
pastoral visit.
Since the end of
President Michel
Suleiman's tenure in
May, and the failure
of the parliament to
elect a successor,
Lebanon has been
witnessing vacuum in
the top Christian
post. According to
the constitution,
the government
"combined" assumes
powers of the
president in case of
absence.
Report: Geagea,
March 14 Camp
Preparing for
Parliamentary
Elections
Naharnet /Lebanese
Forces leader Samir
Geagea is keen to
hold the
parliamentary
elections and avoid
the extension of
parliament's tenure
for a second time,
reported al-Joumhouria
newspaper on
Saturday. It said
that he strongly
advocates holding
the polls for
“constitutional
reasons,” adding
that he has started
his consultations
with March 14 camp
parties, namely the
Mustaqbal Movement,
to that end. The
daily said that the
LF bloc will not
vote for the
extension of
parliament's term
should matters come
to this, but it is
instead preparing
for the elections.
Circles close to
Geagea told al-Joumhouria
that all recent
surveys showed that
the LF has gained in
popularity as
opposed to its rival
the Free Patriotic
Movement of MP
Michel Aoun given
the latter's
political practices.
Geagea has accused
Aoun of obstructing
the presidential
elections through a
boycott of his
Change and Reform
bloc of six of the
last elections
sessions. The
boycott, along with
that of its allies
in Hizbullah's
Loyalty to the
Resistance bloc, has
resulted in a lack
of quorum at
parliament, which
led to the failure
of the polls. In May
2013, parliament
voted to extend its
term, consequently
postponing
parliamentary
elections that were
scheduled for June
of that same year.
Both pro- and
anti-Syrian blocs,
except for the
Change and Reform
bloc, agreed to the
17-month extension,
which was prompted
by deteriorating
security conditions
related to Syria's
turmoil and
lawmakers' failure
to agree on a
parliamentary
electoral law. The
decision marked the
first time that
parliament has had
to extend its term
since the country's
own 15-year civil
war ended in 1990
and underlines the
growing turmoil in
Lebanon spilling
over from the
conflict in its
neighbor.
Report: Hariri,
Kerry Meeting May
Create New Dynamic
over Presidential
Elections
Naharnet/Mustaqbal
Movement chief MP
Saad Hariri and
United States
Secretary of State
John Kerry stressed
during their meeting
on Thursday the need
to elect a new
president for
Lebanon as soon as
possible. As Safir
newspaper reported
on Saturday that the
talks “may produce a
new international
dynamic to deal with
the presidential
elections.”“The
results of this
dynamic will emerge
in July,” diplomatic
sources revealed to
the daily.
Meanwhile, a
high-ranking French
source told As Safir
that the conditions
to hold the
elections will not
“ripen” until
autumn, reported the
daily An Nahar on
Saturday. It
revealed that
officials from the
French and American
foreign ministries
recently held a
meeting in Paris to
discuss the Lebanese
file and efforts
carried out by Kerry
and his French
counterpart Laurent
Fabius over this
issue. Hariri had
held talks with
Fabius in Paris on
Tuesday. Kerry had
paid a brief visit
to Lebanon on June 4
during which he held
talks with Speaker
Nabih Berri, Prime
Minister Tammam
Salam, and Maronite
Patriarch Beshara
al-Rahi. He
highlighted during
his trip the
negative impact the
Syrian crisis is
having on Lebanon,
urging Hizbullah,
Iran, and Russia to
help end the war in
the country.
He also voiced his
concern over the
“deeply troubling”
political stalemate
in Lebanon given the
political powers'
failure to elect a
new president.
President Michel
Suleiman's six-year
term ended in May
with lawmakers
failing to elect his
successor due to
disputes between the
rival March 8 and 14
camps. Seven
presidential
elections sessions
were held without a
new head of state
being elected.
The eighth session
is scheduled for
July 2.
Lebanese Army
Discovers Explosives
Cache in Cave in
Fnaideq
Naharnet /The army
announced on
Saturday that
detainees
apprehended during
raids in the
northern Akkar
region of Fnaideq
over the past week
confessed to the
existence of a cave
in the region where
they used to prepare
explosives. The army
said in a statement
that it carried out
a raid of the cave
where it discovered
bombs that were
prepared to be
detonated. It also
discovered weapons,
CDs, several SIM
cards, mobile
phones, documents,
and lessons on how
to manufacture
explosives. The
confessions were
made by Alaa Kanaan
and Mahmoud Khaled,
members of a
terrorist bombing
who were recently
arrested. The
National News Agency
had reported earlier
on Saturday that the
army raided the
areas of Fnaideq,
al-Kafroun, and Jisr
Ain al-Banat. It
also raided the
nearby Aziziyeh
encampment for
Syrian refugees
where soldiers
searched for wanted
suspects. LBCI
television meanwhile
reported on Saturday
that the detainees
confessed to
providing
suicide-bombers,
including the Duroy
Hotel assailants,
with explosives. A
detainee confessed
on Thursday to
storing a number of
explosives and
weapons in property
he owns in Fnaideq.
Also Thursday, the
army raided another
residence in Fnaideq
where it seized 42
dynamite sticks, 34
120-millimeter and
80-millimeter mortar
shells, 14
propellant charges
for the mortar
shells, and 36 stun
grenades. On
Wednesday, a Saudi
suicide-bomber blew
himself up at the
Duroy Hotel when he
detonated his
explosives during a
security raid. His
accomplice, also a
Saudi citizen,
survived the blast
and is being
questioned at
hospital.
Report: Surveillance
Towers to Be Set up
to Monitor Illegal
Border-Crossings
Naharnet/Security
agencies have
intensified their
efforts to control
Lebanon's land, air,
and maritime borders
given the recent
bombings in the
country and
infiltration of
terrorists, reported
al-Liwaa newspaper
on Saturday. The
measures include
setting up modern
surveillance towers
to monitor the
illegal land
crossings. The legal
crossings will
meanwhile be
equipped with the
necessary technology
to connect them to
main security
databases to
determine the
identity of
travelers to and
from Lebanon. Such a
plan was initially
proposed by Germany
soon after United
Nations Security
Council resolution
1701 was issued in
2006 to resolve the
33-day July war
between Hizbullah
and Israel that
erupted that same
year. The UK and
European Union
pledged to fund the
plan during the Rome
conference held
earlier this month
that was aimed at
bolstering the
capabilities of the
army. Lebanon has
witnessed three
bombings in six days
carried out by
suicide bombers amid
reports that other
terrorists and
booby-trapped
vehicles are present
in the country.
Media reports said
that the would-be
terrorists are Arab
nationals.
Aoun
Expected to Launch
Initiative on
Presidential
Elections
Naharnet/Head of the
Free Patriotic
Movement MP Michel
Aoun is expected to
launch an initiative
next week on the
presidential
elections, reported
al-Liwaa newspaper
on Saturday. Change
and Reform bloc MP
Naji Garious
revealed to the
daily that Aoun will
announce the
initiative during a
press conference on
Monday. He did not
disclose the details
of the announcement.
“The main purpose of
any of Aoun's
actions lies in
building the state”
and including all
factions in this
process, he added.
The FPM chief has so
far not announced
his candidacy for
the elections,
adding however that
he would run if he
is chosen as a
consensual nominee
by the rival
political powers.
Aoun's Change and
Reform bloc and
Hizbullah's Loyalty
to the Resistance
bloc, of the March 8
camp, have boycotted
six of the last
presidential
election sessions,
resulting in a lack
of quorum at
parliament and
leading to the
failure of the
elections. The
boycott has been
prompted by a
dispute over a
presidential
candidate. The
eighth elections
session is scheduled
for July 2. Lebanon
has been without a
president since
Michel Suleiman's
term ended in May.
Lebanon Announces
3-Day Mourning over
Solh's Passing
Naharnet/Lebanon
announced three days
of mourning over
thee death of former
Prime Minister
Rashid al-Solh. A
state funeral will
also take place on
Saturday afternoon
to bid farewell to
the former Premier,
who passed away on
Friday evening at
the age of 88. He
will then be laid to
rest at the Imam al-Ouzai
shrine in southern
Beirut. Prime
Minister Tammam
Salam ordered in a
released statement
flags to be flown at
half mast at all
state institutions,
and for the national
television channel
and radio station to
stop playing any
music in these three
days of mourning.
Al-Solh has promoted
and strengthened
values of dialogue
and sectarian
coexistence as the
only means to
protect Lebanon,
Salam described the
late PM's legacy in
a released
statement. With his
passing, Beirut has
lost a politician
who was in
continuous
communication with
the city's residents
and an MP who
represented it
greatly in seven
parliamentary terms,
the Premier added.
"With his passing,
(Lebanon has lost) a
statesman who played
a crucial political
role and undertook
important national
missions during
difficult times in
the country's
history. He was very
keen on performing
his duty to the
fullest without
neglecting national
values, on top of
them the unity of
the Lebanese
entity,” Salam
continued. Former PM
Saad Hariri,
meanwhile, said al-Solh
dedicated his life
to serve the people
of Beirut. "He
served Lebanon with
wisdom and a
national sense that
is a characteristic
of the Solh family,”
Hariri said in a
released statement.
Al-Sold was chosen
to form and head
Lebanon's cabinet in
1974 by late
President Suleiman
Franjieh. But his
term in office was
cut short after the
eruption of the
Lebanese Civil War.
In 1992, he was also
chosen as Premier by
former President
Elias Hrawi, but his
second term in
office only lasted
for five months. Al-Solh
served as a Beirut
MP in seven
parliamentary terms,
and was the Minister
of Interior in his
own cabinet in 1974.
Shiite Organizations
Cancel Daily Iftars
over Security Fears
Naharnet/Shiite
organizations and
charities have taken
the decision to
cancel over security
fears the daily
iftars that they
used to hold
throughout the holy
month of Ramadan,
reported al-Liwaa
newspaper on
Saturday. The
decision was also
part of judicial
rulings that call
for canceling
gatherings,
regardless of the
occasion, it added.
There are fears that
terrorists may
infiltrate such
events and blow
themselves up.
Hizbullah has also
taken such measures,
but no official
statement has been
issued by the party
yet to confirm it,
said al-Liwaa. The
cancellations only
include iftars held
in Beirut, but it
will go ahead in the
South and eastern
Bekaa region. Al-Liwaa
noted that this is
the first time in
several years that
these organizations
have canceled the
iftars, adding that
they were held even
during the worst
years of the civil
war. A previously
unknown jihadist
group linked to the
Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) has claimed
responsibility for
Wednesday's Duroy
Hotel suicide attack
in Beirut. The group
calling itself the
state of Damascus-Qalamoun
said on Thursday
that two ISIL
members targeted
General Security
agents at the hotel
in Raouche. It also
vowed to carry out
more attacks against
Hizbullah and its
agents, saying
Wednesday's bombing
was just the start.
Syria's civil war
has spilled into
Lebanon on numerous
occasions and
inflamed sectarian
tensions. A series
of car bombs have
struck Shiite areas
across Lebanon,
killing dozens of
people. Sunni
militants have
claimed
responsibility for
the attacks to
avenge Hizbullah,
which has sent its
fighters to Syria to
help President
Bashar Assad's
troops in their
fight against the
rebels seeking to
topple him.
Bombs
away/Will terrorism
in Lebanon bring in
a new president?
By: Michael Young
27/06/2014/Now
Lebanon
Will terrorism in
Lebanon bring in a
new president?
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/553486-bombs-away
Lebanese security
forces secure a
street at the bottom
of the Duroy hotel
where a man blew
himself in his room
on June 25, 2014 in
the Raoucheh quarter
in Beirut Perhaps
it’s my natural
skepticism, but
there is something
terribly fishy about
the bomb explosions
that have hit
Lebanon in the past
week.
Most noticeable in
all three incidents
is that they were
somehow thwarted by
one or the other of
Lebanon’s security
services. All took
place after the
offensive in Iraq by
the Islamic State in
Iraq and al-Sham
(ISIS), which sent
shockwaves
throughout the
Middle East. And all
come at a sensitive
time for Lebanon,
which has been
unable to elect a
president to replace
Michel Sleiman.
However, this is
very little to go
on. But it’s a fact
that while the
security services,
bolstered by those
of Hezbollah, were
unable to prevent
any of the bomb
explosions that took
place earlier this
year in the southern
suburbs, despite
myriad checkpoints,
in the space of a
week they have
repeatedly, if not
interrupted attacks,
forced alleged
bombers to detonate
their loads early.
It’s possible that
the security
services have gotten
a hold of accurate
intelligence
information, but
that doesn’t apply
to the blast in
Tayyouneh, which
occurred after an
alert officer from
General Security
became suspicious of
a driver. As for the
bomb in Dahr al-Baydar,
the versions of the
story told by
General Security
Director Abbas
Ibrahim and the
Internal Security
Forces (ISF) did not
match, and indeed
tended to contradict
one another.
During this period
the intensity of the
panic has been
multiplied,
propelled by reports
of terrorism cells
being uncovered in
Tripoli, purported
threats against
Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri followed
by his cancellation
of an Amal
conference last
week, and
statements, with
little corroborative
evidence, that we
are witnessing a
terrorism offensive
by ISIS.
This sense of panic
has been further
intensified by
arrests of
foreigners in Beirut
hotels and
elsewhere. Last week
two Tunisians were
interviewed by Al-Jadeed
after spending the
morning detained by
the ISF. They were
among the more than
22 people brought in
on the day of the
Dahr al-Baydar
explosion. Far from
being hardened
jihadists, the pair
was in Beirut to
attend an Arab
nationalist
conference. Reports
the next day
indicated that
several of those
detained had been
set free.
So where is all this
leading? A great
deal remains unclear
or elicits
skepticism: security
services that behave
like James Bond;
official
explanations that
are immediately
questionable;
assassination lists
that keep getting
longer; and the
near-automatic
presumption that
ISIS cells are
involved.
That is not to say
that ISIS is a
victim or that there
are no terrorist
cells in Lebanon.
Far from it. ISIS is
a real threat to the
region, and would
readily use
terrorist actions to
build on its
credibility. But
until now the
evidence in Lebanon
seems to be limited.
All we have are
suspicions, warnings
of plots, but
nothing that
definitely tells us
what is true and
what isn’t.
Maybe that’s why
certain Lebanese
politicians view the
panic in Lebanon as
a manufactured
effort to affect the
outcome of the
presidential
election. In this
view, Hezbollah and
its allies seek to
bring in a candidate
of their choice to
the presidency,
thereby using the
two elections
scheduled this year
– the presidential
and parliamentary
elections – to
reinforce their hold
over the country.
According to this
narrative, the Party
finally feels that
Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad is
relatively secure in
power, and would
like to reflect that
reality within
Lebanon.
In this context,
Hezbollah has an
interest in taking
advantage of the
security situation,
and even in
heightening the fear
level. The theory is
that Hezbollah has
two favorite
candidates in its
scabbard: the army
commander, Jean
Qahwaji, and Michel
Aoun. To impose them
on the political
scene, the argument
goes, their
elevation must be
justified by the
unstable security
situation, making
the public more
willing to embrace
either man.
Neither Aoun nor
Qahwaji has been
accused in any way
of involvement in
this purported
conspiracy. And
given Interior
Minister Nouhad
Mashnouq’s
allegiance to March
14, he is hardly
someone likely to be
complicit in such a
scheme.
And yet one thing
can be said if this
theory is true: it
is not Aoun who
would benefit most
from a public
backlash against the
climate of
insecurity in the
country, but rather
Qahwaji, as army
commander.
Therefore, putting
both men in the same
basket may be
misleading.
Hezbollah may be
keeping the prospect
of an Aoun
presidency alive
both to neutralize
the general, who
avidly desires the
post, and to absorb
potential reactions
against Qahwaji, who
may remain the
party’s first choice
as president.
Indeed, Aounist
suspicions of such a
scenario were
evident in an
ambiguous piece
penned by Jean Aziz
last week in Al-Akhbar.
Aziz, who is close
to Aoun, looked back
at how the Nahr
al-Bared battle was
used to bring
Sleiman to power in
2008, blocking Aoun.
His implication was
that the latest
violence may be used
in the same way,
though Aziz
underlined that he
was not accusing
Jean Qahwaji of
complicity in such a
move. Too many
pieces of the puzzle
are missing to
decisively conclude
what is going on.
But there does seem
to be a calculated
intention to scare
the Lebanese after
months of relative
calm. Maybe that’s a
response to a real
threat from
terrorism, or maybe
someone is simply
letting things
happen to exploit
this politically.
Whichever it is,
there is more than
meets the eye to
this affair.
**Michael Young is
opinion editor of
The Daily Star
newspaper. He tweets
@BeirutCalling
Divided we
stand
By: Ana Maria Luca
Published:
28/06/2014/Now
Lebanon
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/553624-divided-we-stand
Lebanese security
agencies compete
rather than
cooperate in the
fight against
terrorism
When NOW asked the
hotel manager about
how his hotel was
raided three times
by three different
Lebanese security
agencies in the same
night, he seemed
uncomfortable. The
hotel he works for
is located in
Raouche, the same
area where a suicide
bomber blew himself
up in his hotel room
Wednesday evening
when he realized a
security team was
raiding the
establishment.
The manager
preferred to speak
anonymously because
he didn’t want
trouble with the
police. “They’re all
over us as it is,”
he said. “They came
three times on
Wednesday night
after the explosion
at Hotel Duroy. Once
the ISF [Internal
Security Forces],
once the General
Security, and
another time the
military
intelligence, I
think. They all
checked the
passports of the
guests. They didn’t
find anything and
they left. In other
hotels I heard they
actually detained
some guests,” he
explained. The
explosion was bad
news for business,
the hotel manager
told NOW. “We never
expected anything
like this to happen
here,” he said. “We
were convinced this
was a safe area.”
But the way the
security forces are
handling the
situation has made
things even worse:
“They’re scaring
people more than
they’re reassuring
them. Some guests
felt harassed. They
didn’t understand
why their passports
had to be checked
three times. It was
all very chaotic,”
the manager
complained.
Most politicians,
especially
government members,
applauded the
Lebanese security
forces for averting
bigger terrorist
attacks, sometimes
by sacrificing their
own security and
even their lives.
Interior Minister
Nohad al-Mashnouq
described the raid
on the Hotel Duroy
as a "preventative
strike" by
authorities. "The
suicide bomber was
going to detonate
himself elsewhere
and they managed to
stop him," he said.
Multiple officers of
the security forces
have averted other
tragedies. A police
officer died and
several others were
wounded on June 20
when a suicide
bomber blew himself
up at the Dahr al-Baydar
ISF checkpoint in
the Beqaa Valley. A
few days later, a
General Security
officer in Tayyouneh
noticed a suspicious
car and stopped it
from entering a
densely-populated
area. It cost him
his life: the car
exploded while he
was asking for the
driver’s papers.
Then, on June 25,
General Security
officers who raided
Hotel Duroy were
wounded in the
explosion.
But the security
procedures that
followed the three
explosions did not
have the expected
effect of reassuring
Lebanese civilians.
After the Dahr al-Baydar
explosion on June
20, Beirut was
brought to a
standstill: all
entrances were
closed, and
checkpoints were
installed by
different security
agencies on all the
main roads. A raid
by the Internal
Security Forces on
Beirut’s Hamra
neighborhood, in the
wake of the threat
of a terrorist
attack targeting an
Amal Movement
meeting at the
UNESCO Palace, led
to the detention of
17 Tunisians who
were in town for a
conference. Over 100
people were randomly
arrested after the
explosion, but only
one remained in
custody.
Raouche became a
fortress in the days
following the
explosion at the
Hotel Duroy, while
the ISF and General
Security competed in
hotel raids and
checking guest
documents in the
hunt for suspected
terrorists. At the
same time, the
Lebanese Army
surrounded a small
Palestinian refugee
camp largely
inhabited by
Palestinian
Catholics. In
combating terrorism,
defense analyst and
retired LAF General
Wehbe Katisha
argued, the Lebanese
Army Intelligence
Directorate, the
General Directorate
of General Security,
and the Internal
Security Forces
“should cooperate
and compete at the
same time. If one
security agency has
certain information,
it is obliged to
share it with the
other agencies,” he
told NOW.
The division of
jurisdiction between
the three agencies
should also be
clear, Katisha said.
General Security
handles issues
related to
foreigners in
Lebanon, he
explained;
meanwhile, the Army
Intelligence
Directorate
investigates crimes
related to the
military regardless
of whether they
involve Lebanese or
foreigners, and the
ISF Information
Branch deals with
internal problems.
Moreover, Katisha
stressed, “a
strategy [to combat
terrorism] should be
set by the
government. The
security forces
should have a
technical strategy.”
But in the past week
it has been unclear
which security
agency has handled
what investigation.
The degree of
cooperation between
them is a mystery,
and the manner in
which they have
dealt with civilians
in the course of
their investigations
has raised
additional concerns.
Future bloc MP Mouin
Merhebi told NOW he
was angry with
security forces for
their lack of
discretion and for
tipping off the
suicide bombers at
the Hotel Duroy.
Describing their
actions in Hamra and
Raouche as “looking
for a media show,”
he also accused
security agencies’
behavior of being
politically
motivated: the
officers in charge
of the various
agencies in the
Lebanese security
apparatus are in a
state of constant
competition, he
said.
“Security forces are
showing off with a
big number of cars
in convoys – this
happened last week
and [Wednesday] as
well. This is not
professional, and
this is what led to
the failure of the
operation [at the
Hotel Duroy]. Each
agency is trying to
be a media star
showing off its
great achievements,”
Merhebi bemoaned.
“Procedures for
security reasons
should be done in a
certain way that
doesn’t harm
civilians.”“They
shouldn’t show off
and arrest 100
people and then keep
only one in
detention,” he
concluded.
Pakistani Jets Kill
18 in Anti-Militant
Offensive
Naharnet/Pakistani
jets and artillery
bombarded militant
hideouts in the
country's restive
northwest on
Saturday as part of
a massive ongoing
offensive against
the Taliban, killing
18 insurgents, the
military said.
Pakistan Air Force (PAF)
planes pounded the
outskirts of Mirali
town late Friday
while tanks targeted
militant sanctuaries
outside Miranshah,
the main town of
North Waziristan
where almost half a
million civilians
have fled. "The PAF
jets destroyed six
confirmed terrorist
hideouts killing 11
terrorists," the
military said in a
statement.
"Terrorist
concentrations were
targeted early
Saturday morning by
integrated fire of
artillery, tanks and
heavy weapons
outside Miranshah
killing seven
terrorists," it
added. The statement
said a Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP)
commander was killed
while a "prominent"
al-Qaida commander
was arrested while
trying to flee. The
fresh bombardment
came as aid agencies
geared up relief
efforts for refugees
fleeing the military
operation. Nearly
500,000 people have
fled the offensive
in North Waziristan
which is aimed at
wiping out
longstanding
militant strongholds
in the area, which
borders Afghanistan.
Tens of thousands of
families have left
for the town of
Bannu, close to
North Waziristan,
while hundreds more
have moved further
afield to the towns
of Lakki Marwat,
Karak and Dera
Ismail Khan since
the offensive began
in mid-June. A full
assault by ground
troops has been
expected for some
days and the
intensive shelling
in several areas
could indicate that
it is now imminent.
Nearly 370 militants
and 12 security
personnel have been
killed in the
offensive, dubbed "Zarb-e-Azb"
after a sword used
in battle by the
Prophet Mohammad,
although the number
and identity of the
victims are
impossible to
verify. Pakistan's
armed forces have
used jet fighters,
tanks and artillery
in the operation
that began almost
two weeks ago. The
assault on the
militant bastion of
North Waziristan,
long urged by
Washington, was
finally launched
after a dramatic
attack on Karachi
airport which killed
dozens of people and
marked the end of a
faltering peace
process with the
Pakistani Taliban.
There was one piece
of good news from
Bannu on Saturday
when a baby boy was
born in a camp set
up for those who
have fled the
offensive. It was
the first reported
birth at the
facility in Bakakhel
where at least 250
people have taken
refuge. Agence
France Presse
Clashes near Tikrit
as Iraq Troops
Launch Fightback
Naharnet/Iraqi
forces pressed a
campaign Saturday to
retake militant-held
Tikrit, clashing
with jihadist-led
Sunni militants
nearby and pounding
positions inside the
city with air
strikes in their
biggest
counter-offensive so
far. A senior
officer said
security forces was
coordinating with
the United States,
which has deployed
military advisers to
help the government
push back the
militants, who have
overrun large parts
of five provinces
north and west of
Baghdad. Armed U.S.
drones were flying
over Baghdad to
provide protection
for the advisers and
U.S. diplomats
against the
militants, led by
the jihadist Islamic
State of Iraq and
the Levant (ISIL).
Top Shiite cleric
Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, who is
revered among Iraq's
majority community,
has urged political
leaders to unite and
form a new
government within
days to tackle the
crisis.
International
agencies have raised
alarm bells over the
humanitarian
consequences of the
fighting, with up to
10,000 people having
fled a northern
Christian town in
recent days and 1.2
million displaced by
unrest in Iraq this
year. Thousands of
soldiers, backed by
air cover, tanks and
bomb disposal units,
were advancing on
Tikrit --
now-executed
dictator Saddam
Hussein's hometown
-- which fell to
insurgents on June
11. Witnesses said
loyalists were
moving toward Tikrit
from the west and
engaged in heavy
clashes. "A large
military operation
started today to
clear Tikrit of ISIL,"
Staff Lieutenant
General Sabah
Fatlawi told Agence
France Presse,
saying its fighters
now have two choice
"flee or be killed."
Helicopter-borne
troops swooped into
a strategically
located university
campus in the city
on Thursday, with
sporadic clashes
reported throughout
Friday. Taking the
university is seen
as an important step
towards regaining
control of Tikrit,
one of the biggest
cities held by the
militants. Iraqi
forces were carrying
out air strikes
against insurgents
inside the city,
Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki's security
spokesman said. They
were also now in
full control of a
key road from
Baghdad to Samarra,
between the capital
and Tikrit,
Lieutenant General
Qassem Atta added.
There is
coordination with
the U.S. over
"studying important
targets," Atta said,
without elaborating.
Although they
initially wilted in
the face of the
offensive in
majority Sunni Arab
areas that began on
June 9, the security
forces have appeared
to perform more
capably in recent
days. A senior U.S.
official, speaking
on condition of
anonymity, said "a
few" armed drones
were being used over
Baghdad as a
precaution to
safeguard Americans,
but they will not be
used for offensive
action against the
militants. The
Pentagon confirmed
that among the
manned and unmanned
U.S. aircraft flying
over Iraq to carry
out surveillance,
some were carrying
bombs and missiles.
The U.S. flights
come despite
Maliki's insistence
on Friday that
"Baghdad is safe"
from militant
assault. World
leaders have
insisted that a
political settlement
be reached among
Iraq's Shiite Arab,
Sunni Arab and
Kurdish communities.
Sistani urged Iraqi
leaders to unite and
form a government
quickly after the
new parliament
elected on April 30
convenes on Tuesday.
Maliki, who has
publicly focused on
a military response
to the crisis, has
acknowledged that
political measures
are also necessary.
On Saturday, Russian
Deputy Foreign
Minister Sergei
Ryabkov said in
Damascus that
"Russia will not
remain passive to
the attempts by some
groups to spread
terrorism in the
region.""The
situation is very
dangerous in Iraq
and the foundations
of the Iraqi state
are under threat,"
he said. Iraq has
agreed to purchase
more than a dozen
Sukhoi warplanes
from Russia and
Belarus in a deal
that could be worth
up to $500 million
(368 million euros).
Iraq has appealed
for U.S. air strikes
against the
militants, but
Washington has
offered only up to
300 military
advisers. U.S.
official have said a
proposed $500
million plan to arm
and train moderate
rebels in
neighboring Syria
could also help
Iraq's fight against
ISIL, which operates
on both sides of the
border. But amid
calls for unity,
Iraqi Kurdish leader
Massud Barzani said
Baghdad could no
longer object to
Kurdish self-rule in
Kirkuk and other
areas from which
federal forces
withdrew as the
insurgents advanced.
"Now, this
(issue)... is
achieved," he said,
referring to a
constitutional
article meant to
address the Kurds'
decades-old ambition
to incorporate more
territory into their
autonomous northern
region, a move
Baghdad opposes.
Maliki's security
spokesman has said
hundreds of soldiers
have been killed
since the offensive
began on June 9,
while the U.N. puts
the overall death
toll at nearly
1,100.The
International
Organization for
Migration warned
that aid workers
could not reach tens
of thousands of
Iraqis displaced by
the violence, and
called for
humanitarian
corridors to be
established.
Agence France Presse
Report: ISIL Selling
Oil to Finance
Terrorist
Operations, Army,
Security Forces Main
Targets in Lebanon
Naharnet/Interrogation
with the detained
would-be suicide
bomber Abdul Rahman
al-Shenifi revealed
that the Islamic
State of Iraq and
the Levant is
selling oil to
finance its
terrorist
operations, LBCI
television reported
on Saturday.
“Al-Shenifi revealed
that ISIL is selling
oil in Syria and
Iraq and through
this activity has
managed to have cash
money,” LBCI said.
The would-be bomber
also told his
nterrogators that a
Syrian man informed
him and his partners
in the Turkish city
of Istanbul that
their mission was to
attack security
forces and army
troops in Lebanon,
according to the
same source.
But later, al-Monzer
al-Hasan, the man
who provided the
Duroy Hotel bombers
with explosives,
asked the suicide
bombers to change
their target and
instead attack al-Saha
restaurant in the
southern suburbs of
Beirut. "Three
people went to the
restaurant to
inspect it and to
explore the
entrances leading to
it,” LBCI added.
Meanwhile, the
television channel
also revealed that
the brother of Duroy
suicide bomber Ahmed
Abdul Rahman al-Thwaini
was recently
arrested by the
General Security for
suspecting that he
is a terrorist. He
was later released,
however. On
Wednesday, a Saudi
suicide bomber
detonated his
explosives at his
room in the Duroy
Hotel in the Beirut
neighborhood of
Raouche during a
raid by General
Security officers.
LBCI reported on
Friday that the
suicide bomber and
his accomplice, who
are both Saudis,
arrived to Lebanon
from Istanbul where
they had spent five
days. The TV network
said investigations
have highlighted a
“key role” for al-Hasan
in several suicide
bombings. They said
al-Hasan receives
$50,000 for
facilitating the
mission of every
suicide bomber. Al-Hasan's
picture was
circulated by the
General Security
agency on Thursday.
Wednesday's suicide
attack was the third
in Lebanon in less
than a week and
sparked fears of
renewed violence in
a country that has
been deeply affected
by the civil war in
neighboring Syria.
.
Why
ISIS Won’t Take
Baghdad
Jamie Dettmer/The
Daily Beast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/28/why-isis-won-t-take-baghdad.html
The jihadist-led
Sunni coalition
that’s swept through
parts of Syria and
northwest Iraq
strikes where
there’s local
support and the
least resistance.
That’s not the Iraqi
capital.
BEIRUT, Lebanon —
Fighters loyal to
the Islamic State of
Iraq and al-Sham
(ISIS) have at times
been as close as six
miles to Baghdad,
according to Iraqi
and Kurdish
commanders
interviewed by The
Daily Beast. But the
Iraqi capital may
well be “a city too
far” for this
ferocious al-Qaeda
offshoot that is
determined, as its
name says, to
establish a state of
its own.
While there’s no
solid consensus
among intelligence
analysts in the
region about ISIS’s
precise strategy,
several interviewed
in recent days say
the jihadists are
likely to launch
demoralizing
commando raids and a
suicide bombing
blitz in Baghdad,
probably timed to
coincide with the
arrival of the main
contingent of US
military advisers.
(An advance guard
arrived Tuesday.)
The Americans
presumably will make
the defense of the
capital a priority,
but that may be
precisely what ISIS
hopes they will do,
because it has other
interests. “The
priority, I think,
for ISIS is to build
their Islamic State
straddling the
Syria-Iraq border –
that is their
ultimate
objective—and trying
to capture Baghdad
would be too big for
them to accomplish;
it could also
sidetrack them,”
says a US
intelligence
official based in
the Middle East who
is closely
monitoring ISIS.
ISIS has not picked
difficult battles.
It has calculated
carefully where it
could move with the
biggest impact and
the least
resistance. Mosul
was not Stalingrad,
holding out against
a powerful siege; it
was more like
Copenhagen in World
War II, folding
without a fight.
A concerted ISIS
campaign to capture
Baghdad would no
doubt trigger
greater military
reaction from the
Iranians -- key
backers of the Shia-dominated
government of
beleaguered Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki
– who already have
sent members of
their Revolutionary
Guard and military
supplies to bolster
Iraqi security
forces. The Iranians
reportedly are
flying surveillance
drone flights on
behalf of Maliki’s
government as well.
ISIS lacks the
manpower to hold
Baghdad even if it
could succeed in
storming the
capital.
Such attacks as do
take place in and
around Baghdad will
likely aim to sow
political discord
and fan sectarian
divisions, keeping
Maliki’s government
wrong-footed and on
the defensive. Iraqi
troops and allied
Shia militiamen are
holding a line north
of Baghdad and
trying to establish
what army commanders
call the Baghdad
Belt around the
capital. But they
are making little
headway mounting an
offensive, relying
on instead on the
spotty use of
airpower to take the
fight into ISIS
territory.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
and other ISIS
leaders have made
clear their ambition
to establish a
caliphate stretching
from Aleppo in Syria
right across
northern and western
Iraq. “ISIS is not
only talking the
talk about
establishing an
Islamic state, it is
walking the walk,”
jihadist expert
Aaron Zelin notes in
a research paper on
the group released
Thursday by the
Washington Institute
for Near East
Policy, a D.C.-based
think tank.
“Further, the
reality of a
proto-state and
ISIS’s willingness
to try to
govern—this khilafa
project, as many
within the group
call it—is quite
appealing to
jihadists,” says
Zelin. It is helping
to attract recruits
and undermine the
standing of
al-Qaeda, whose
leadership disowned
ISIS earlier this
year, partly over
its state-building
aspirations.
On Baghdad, Zelin
told The Daily Beast
that ISIS has always
had a presence in
the capital. “I
don’t think they can
take it, though,” he
said. “With 80
percent of the
population being
Shia, it would
pretty much be
impossible, though
they may take Sunni
neighborhoods.”
Mideast expert
Jonathan Schanzer of
the US-based
Foundation for
Defense of
Democracies says
ISIS lacks the
manpower to hold
Baghdad even if it
could succeed in
storming the
capital.
“Strategically for
ISIS, invading
Baghdad would
therefore seem like
a mistake,” says
Schanzer. But he
adds the caveat, “We
also don't know what
kind of quiet
support it enjoys
from the disaffected
Sunnis -- former
Baathists are said
to be among ISIS
base of support --
who could help the
group conquer and
hold the seat of
power in Iraq.”
The Mideast-based
American
intelligence
official says
al-Baghdadi and his
inner core of
advisers made up of
experienced Iraqi
jihadists and
military veterans --
as well as some
Chechens -- are
unlikely to make the
mistake of trying to
mount a full-scale
assault on the
capital.
He argues the
group’s leadership
has shown a
remarkable grasp of
military strategy,
astutely withdrawing
from towns in
rebel-controlled
provinces in
northern Syria when
faced by a backlash
from Syrian rebel
groups and thus
avoiding defeats,
negotiating with
local Sunni tribes
in both Syria and
Iraq and entering a
pact with former
Saddam Hussein-era
military officers
and Iraqi Baath
party members to
unleash an audacious
Sunni insurgency in
Iraq.
Most ISIS military
operations have
focused on isolating
the capital by
securing important
land routes around
it or consolidating
their hold on Sunni
towns already
captured, and by
overrunning pockets
of resistance in the
majority-Sunni zones
of western,
south-western and
northern Iraq
bordering Syria,
Jordan and Saudi
Arabia.
Another priority
target has been
refineries and oil
wells. Already in
eastern Syria ISIS
has been smuggling
and selling oil from
wells captured in
the uprising against
Bashar al-Assad.
It’s a lucrative
trade that has
helped swell the
jihadist group’s
coffers and
transform it into
the world’s
wealthiest terrorist
organization. Taking
a chunk of Iraq’s
oil production could
make it much richer
still.
The insurgents are
continuing an
intense fight at
Iraq’s Baiji oil
refinery, the
country’s largest,
despite Iraqi
government claims
that its forces have
asserted full
control over the
facility.
Meanwhile, a
jihadist bombing
campaign in Baghdad
appears to have
started. Two car
bombs hit Baghdad’s
suburbs during the
week, the latest
killing 19 and
wounding more than
40. Infuriated Shia
vowed revenge.
Al-Baghdadi, who
appears to be the
master strategist,
was trained by the
late Abu Mousab
al-Zarqawi, a
Jordanian militant
who also defied
al-Qaeda’s top
leadership.
Al-Baghdadi has been
following his
mentor’s vicious
playbook, including
beheadings and
suicide bombings as
well as targeting
non-Sunnis or Sunnis
opposed to his brand
of jihad. Al-Zarqawi
believed in the
importance of
purging apostates –
something his
follower clearly
endorses. The
brutality appears to
have the terrifying
spin-off: inspiring
and attracting
recruits eager to
join in a
“successful” jihad,
and especially one
that has them
fighting Shia, whom
they consider
heretics.
ISIS says it killed
at least 1,700
people after seizing
the city of Mosul
two weeks ago.
Refugees from the
city told The Daily
Beast they had heard
that 300 Shia Muslim
and Christian
inmates of Mosul
prison had been
executed. And on
Friday Human Rights
Watch said ISIS had
appeared to have
massacred Iraqi
soldiers – possibly
as many as 200 of
them -- who had
surrendered.
As ISIS no doubt had
hoped, its jihadist
violence is already
triggering a Shia
backlash in Baghdad,
with reports of
dozens of abductions
and killings of
Sunnis in the
capital by vengeful
Shia groups. The
vendettas are likely
to keep Sunnis loyal
to the insurgency,
if for no other
reason than their
need for protection.