LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 02/14
Bible Quotation for
today/So it is not the will of your Father in heaven
that one of these little ones should be lost.
Matthew 18,11-14/What do you think? If a shepherd has a hundred sheep,
and one of them has gone astray, does he not leave the ninety-nine on the
mountains and go in search of the one that went astray?
And if he finds it, truly I tell you, he rejoices over it more than over the
ninety-nine that never went astray. So it is not the will of your Father in
heaven that one of these little ones should be lost.
Pope Francis's Tweet For today
To live as true children of God means to love our neighbour and to be close
to those who are lonely and in difficulty.
Pape François
Vivre comme de vrais enfants de Dieu signifie aimer le prochain et se faire
proche de celui qui est seul et en difficulté.
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources For July 02/14
The Western ISIS and its Second Rebirth/By: Diana Moukalled/Asharq Alawsat/ July 02/14
Terrorism on Delivery/By: Sawsan Al-Abtah/Asharq Alawsat/July 02/14
Sunnis of Iraq, between reason and fanaticism/By: Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/July 02/14
Will ISIS grow or is it set to meet its death/By: Jamal Khashoggi /Al Arabiya/July 02/14
Reports From Miscellaneous
Sources For July 02/14
Lebanese Related News
Eastern patriarchs deplore regional violence
Liberman: Israel should conduct widespread military operation in Gaza
Ya'alon vows to track down murderers of 3 Israeli teens
Israeli jets pound Gaza, hit 34 targets in overnight strike
Bkirki Rejects Constitutional Amendment Ahead of Presidential Elections
Geagea Urges 'Boycotting MPs' to Attend Elections Sessions, Ignore 'Delusional'
Proposals
Roadside Bomb Targets Army Patrol in Tripoli
Mashnouq Announces Rehabilitation of Roumieh Prison Next Week
Syndicate Coordination Committee (SCC) Holds Sit-in, Calls for 'Social Alliance'
on Wage Scale
Iran's FM, Fathali Expresses Tehran's Readiness to Aid Army, Says Presidential
Poll 'Local Affair'
STL Defense Office Appoints Lawyer for al-Amin, Akhbar Beirut S.A.L.
The International Support Group for Lebanon Reaffirms Assistance Commitment,
Expresses Concern over Vacuum
Report: Saudi Officials in Beirut to Follow up Probe into Duroy Attack
Saudi delegation in Beirut to follow up terror probe
Tripoli attack raises fears of return to violence
Salam discusses refugee crisis with donor states
Harb: Telecoms losses short-term, necessary
Beirut refugee camp clashes kill 3
Miscellaneous Reports And News For July 02/14
Murdered Israeli teens laid to rest in joint ceremony
Iraq Parliament Session Ends in Chaos as Turmoil Deepens
Judicial Source: Sarkozy Detained for Questioning in French Graft Probe
Amnesty Slams Lebanon Ban on Palestinians Fleeing Syria
Jihadists Seize Key Syria Town on Iraq Border
Barzani: Iraqi Kurds to Vote on Independence in Months
Eastern patriarchs deplore regional
violence
Daily Star/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: The patriarchs of Eastern churches Tuesday
deplored raging violence in Iraq and Syria that has caused massive displacement
of people, calling to maintain the Christian presence in region’s war-torn
countries and preserve their lands. In a statement released at the opening of
their Holy Synod in Lady of Balamand Convent in north Lebanon, the prelates also
called for safeguarding democratic norms and political freedoms in Lebanon by
ensuring the quick election of a new president and reactivating constitutional
institutions, especially the Parliament and Cabinet, to enable the country to
face the pressing economic, social and security challenges. “The patriarchs
prayed for the people of Mosul and north Iraq and urged the world to prevent
Iraq’s disintegration and save its people from the scourge of a devastating
war,” the statement said. “They also called upon the international community to
preserve Iraq’s civilizations, including the deep-rooted Christian civilization,
and encouraged their sons to cling on to their land and not give it up under the
pressures of current conditions.” Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai, Melkite
Gregorius III Lahham, Syriarc Catholic Patriarch Ignatius III Younan, Syrian
Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius Ephrem , Greek Orthodox Patriarch John Yazigi
attended the conference. The patriarchs demanded the release and safe return of
all kidnap victims, be they civilians, clerics, or nuns, notably bishops Yohanna
Ibrahim and Paul Yazigi, who went missing in Syria 14 months ago. In addition to
the patriarchs, the synod was attended by more than 40 bishops representing the
different churches of Antioch and the Orient.
Bkirki Rejects Constitutional
Amendment Ahead of Presidential Elections
Naharnet/Bkirki is engaged in a battle to elect a new head of state
only and rejects to interfere in details that impede the poll as the Maronite
Patriarch is holding onto his decision that all matters should be postponed
until the parliament selects a president. A source close to Bkirki refused to
comment on Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's proposal. The source
stressed in comments published in al-Joumhouria on Tuesday that Bkirki is only
interested in carrying out the presidential poll. Aoun called on Monday for a
constitutional amendment that would allow the people to elect their head of
state in an attempt to resolve the presidential deadlock. According to An Nahar
newspaper, Bkirki deems any constitutional amendment ahead of the election of a
new president as void. Sources told the newspaper that all suggestions will be
discussed after the presidential poll is staged as the priority is to fill the
vacancy at the Baabda Palace. Aoun's initiative states that the parliament
should carry out a “limited constitutional amendment,” allowing Lebanese
citizens to elect the head of state in two rounds to avoid the same scenarios
that parliamentary sessions are witnessing. Parliament has failed in several
rounds to elect a successor to President Michel Suleiman, whose six-year term
expired on May 25 after the March 8 and 14 alliances failed to agree on a
compromise candidate. The majority of the March 8 camp's MPs, including the
lawmakers of Aoun's Change and Reform bloc, have boycotted the sessions, leading
to a lack of the needed two-thirds quorum. Aoun said that his proposal lies in
allowing only Christians to vote for their candidates in the first round that
would pave way for both Muslims and Christians to choose the two candidates who
received the majority of votes in the first round. Al-Joumhouria newspaper
reported that Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is seeking to hold a wide
Christian conference soon, to press parties to carry out their national duty and
elect a new president. The FPM chief has refused to announce his candidacy,
claiming there should be consensus on him first. But the March 14 alliance, has
backed the candidacy of his rival Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea. Both
Maronite leaders claim that they represent the majority of the country's
Christians. Under the National Pact of 1943, the president should be a Maronite,
the speaker a Shiite and the premier a Sunni.
STL Defense Office Appoints Lawyer for
al-Amin, Akhbar Beirut S.A.L.
Naharnet /Head of the international tribunal's defense office
Francois Roux assigned a Lebanese lawyer to defend the accused in the case
against Akhbar Beirut S.A.L. and its editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin. Al-Akhabr
newspaper reported on Tuesday that Lebanese lawyer Antonios F. Abou Kasm will
defend the journalist and the media organization, which are charged with
contempt for knowingly and willfully interfering with the administration of
justice. Al-Amin withdrew on May 29 from the initial appearance in the contempt
case filed against him by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The journalist, who
chose to represent himself, criticized STL Contempt Judge Nicola Lettieri for
interrupting him, saying that it is a sign of the “oppression” practiced by the
tribunal. Lettieri said he will interpret Amin's stance as a plea of not guilty.
Amin repeated before the STL that he does not recognize it, saying that he
cannot trust a U.N. Security Council that disregards the injustice taking place
in Palestine. Lettieri ordered the appointment of a defense lawyer to Amin
despite Roux's objection. Akhbar Beirut S.A.L. and Amin are charged with
“knowingly and willfully interfering with the administration of justice by
publishing information on purported confidential witnesses in the Ayyash et al.
Case.” New TV S.A.L. and deputy head of news at al-Jadeed television Karma
Tahsin al-Khayat have been also accused of the same charges. An initial hearing
for the two journalists and their media organizations was held on May 13 at the
STL headquarters in The Hague. Al-Jadeed Director General Dmitry Khodr and
Khayat entered pleas of not guilty. Amin did not attend the session. In April
last year, a list of 167 names of so-called witnesses for the former Premier
Rafik Hariri trial was published by a previously unknown group identified as
"Journalists for the Truth."The group said it wanted to "unveil the corruption"
of the STL. Both al-Akhbar and al-Jadeed published the list.
Geagea Urges 'Boycotting MPs' to Attend Elections Sessions, Ignore
'Delusional' Proposals
Naharnet /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea urged on Tuesday lawmakers who
have been boycotting the presidential elections to attend Wednesday's session
and exercise their duties towards the people. He said in an open letter to the
“boycotting MPs”: “I call on you to head to parliament instead of wasting time
on illusory proposals.” He made his comment in reference to the initiative
launched by Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Michel Aoun on Monday aimed at
ending the deadlock and which calls for the people to elect a president. The
proposal lies in allowing only Christians to vote for their candidates in the
first round that would pave way for both Muslims and Christians to choose the
two candidates who received the majority of votes in the first round. “The
Lebanese people are waiting for you to fulfill your duties towards them and
elect a president and not boycott the meetings in the belief that such an
approach will lead to the election of a head of state that favors you,”
continued Geagea in his address. “Such practices are not democratic or political
as no one has the right to place personal interests above national ones,
especially in light of the situation Lebanon and the region are passing
through,” he noted. “You should therefore listen to your national conscience and
elect a president according to your national convictions in order to prevent
Lebanon from being plunged into the storms raging in the region,” stated the LF
leader. “Dragging Lebanon towards constitutional vacuum contradicts with the
jurisdiction granted to you by the people,” he said. Lawmakers are obligated to
elect a president and preserve constitutional institutions, “whose absence will
threaten the nation's existence.” Seven presidential elections sessions have
been held so far, six of which were not staged due to a boycott of March 8 camp
lawmakers, mainly those of the Loyalty to the Resistance and Change and Reform
blocs. The boycott was prompted by an ongoing dispute with the March 14 alliance
over a presidential candidate. Geagea had declared his candidacy, while Aoun has
said that he will only run in the polls if there is consensus over his
nomination. The term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May. The eighth
presidential elections session is scheduled for Wednesday, but it is expected to
meet the same fate as its predecessors.
The International Support Group for
Lebanon Reaffirms Assistance Commitment, Expresses Concern over Vacuum
Naharnet/The International Support Group for Lebanon reiterated
on Tuesday its commitment to provide assistance to Lebanon, U.N. Special
Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly said.
“ISG members ... expressed strong solidarity with Lebanon in the light of the
terrorist threat, and congratulated the prime minister on the recent successes
of the security forces,” said Plumbly after he attended a meeting chaired by PM
Tammam Salam at the Grand Serail. During the meeting, which was attended by the
ambassadors of ISG members, the diplomats “reaffirmed their commitment to
promote international assistance to Lebanon,” Plumbly said. He said the
ambassadors also welcomed the “successful meeting” held in Rome last month to
explore means to support the Lebanese army.
Plumbly vowed to “actively look for opportunities in the coming period to
highlight Lebanon's needs, particularly in respect of assistance and
stabilization efforts.” The ambassadors also welcomed the understanding reached
by the cabinet to facilitate its work in the absence of a president. Salam said
Thursday that the cabinet will put aside any issue that does not win consensus.
Plumbly “shared” Salam's “deep concern at the ongoing failure of parliament to
elect a president and joined him in stressing the importance of Lebanon's
leaders moving to ensure that the election takes place without further delay.”
The eighth round of the polls are scheduled to be held on Wednesday. But the
parliamentary session aimed at electing a president is expected to meet the same
fate of its predecessors.
The differences between the March 8 and 14 alliances have caused lack of quorum
in the sessions, leaving the country without a president after the expiry of
Michel Suleiman's six-year term on May 25.
Roadside Bomb Targets Army Patrol in Tripoli
Naharnet/The Lebanese army said Tuesday that one of its patrols
was targeted overnight with a roadside bomb in the northern city of Tripoli. The
homemade bomb, which was made up of around 800 grams of explosives, went off at
3:15 am while soldiers were patrolling the area of Bab al-Ramel, the military
said in a communique. The explosives were packed in a metal box, it said. The
army cordoned off the area after the attack, which is now being investigated by
military police, the communique added. The army and security forces deployed en
masse in Tripoli earlier this year as part of a security plan aimed at bringing
back calm to the city, which has witnessed several rounds of deadly gunbattles.
The fighting mostly took place between the neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh,
whose residents are Sunnis, and the majority Alawite district of Jabal Mohsen.
Scores of gunmen and suspects have been charged with forming armed gangs and
participating in the clashes.
Syndicate Coordination Committee (SCC)
Holds Sit-in, Calls for 'Social Alliance' on Wage Scale
Naharnet/More than a dozen of public sectors employees held a
sit-in near the Value Added Tax building in Beirut on Tuesday, reiterating their
demand for the approval of the controversial wage hike. Several Syndicate
Coordination Committee activists spoke at the protest, urging the parliament to
agree on the salary raise. Head of Public Secondary School Education Teachers
Association Hanna Gharib said that “the issue is no longer about the wage scale.
It goes beyond that.”“It's a scandal. There is a plan to liquidate what remains
of social services,” he said. Gharib urged the SCC, which is a coalition of
private and public school teachers and public sector employees, to form a
“social alliance” to give back the public sector teachers and employees their
rights. He also called for unity during an SCC-organized protest scheduled to
take place on Thursday. Speaker Nabih Berri has decided to keep legislative
sessions on the wage scale open-ended after lawmakers failed to approve the
raise.
Parliamentary blocs have expressed their support for the employees' rights but
have warned that Lebanon's ailing economy would suffer if the total funding was
not reduced from LL2.8 trillion ($1.9 billion) to LL1.8 trillion ($1.2 billion).
They have also disagreed on how to raise taxes to fund the scale over fears of
inflation and its affect on the poor. Their differences have been exacerbated by
the boycott of the March 14 alliance's MPs of the sessions aimed at discussing
the draft-law under the excuse that parliament should not legislate in the
absence of a president.
Mashnouq Announces Rehabilitation of
Roumieh Prison Next Week
Naharnet /Interior Minister Nouahad al-Mashnouq revealed on
Tuesday that the rehabilitation of Roumieh prison will kick start next week,
describing it as a first step in the implementation of his reform plan.
“This is the practical stage and we will not begin to construct the new facility
now,” Mashnouq told reporters after a meeting with a delegation from the
Bankers' Association, headed by its chief Francois Bassil. Mashnouq hailed the
association for its financial grant to rehabilitate the facility, praising it
for assuming a “national responsibility.” Media reports had said that the
interior minister had established a two-stage plan to resolve the situation at
Roumieh prison and improve the conditions of the inmates. Roumieh, the oldest
and largest of Lebanon's overcrowded prisons, has witnessed sporadic prison
breaks in recent years and escalating riots over the past months as inmates
living in poor conditions demand better treatment. Corruption, negligence and
the maltreatment of inmates are wide spread at Roumieh prison as some inmates
have access to cellphone, internet connection and soft arms. During the first
stage of the plan set by Mashnouq, the minister seeks to equip a new facility
near the prison to accommodate around 700 to 1,000 inmate. The first stage
reportedly requires three months to be implemented. The second stage, which
needs around a year to be accomplished, will be the establishment of a new
facility for dangerous prisoners, who will have a separate court room. The cost
of the second stage will reportedly reach 40 million dollars.
Iran's FM, Fathali Expresses Tehran's
Readiness to Aid Army, Says Presidential Poll 'Local Affair'
Naharnet/Newly-appointed Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed
Fathali reiterated on Tuesday that his country is ready to provide Lebanese
security agencies with all the necessary aid, stressing that the Lebanese
presidential poll is a local affair.
“We have announced since day one that we are ready to cooperate with the
Lebanese army and all security agencies on high levels,” Fathali said in an
interview with As Safir newspaper.
He noted that his country “doesn't place conditions for the cooperation unlike
other states that offered the Lebanese army weapons setting a precondition that
they wouldn't be used against” Israel.
In January, Saudi Arabia has decided to donate three billion dollars with the
aim of purchasing French weapons for the Lebanese army.
The diplomat pointed out that Lebanon is an important country for Iran,
considering that the recent security backlash was imposed by the developments in
the regions that “entered a critical stage.”Asked if a regional agreement
between Tehran and Saudi Arabia would facilitate the Lebanese presidential
elections, Fathali described the polls as “a local affair.”
He expressed belief that “no foreign sides should intervene in the process.”
The Lebanese parliament has failed in several rounds to elect a successor to
President Michel Suleiman, whose six-year term expired on May 25 after the March
8 and 14 alliances failed to agree on a compromise candidate.
On Hizbullah's stance regarding the elections, the Iranian official said that
the party “is a Lebanese organization that abides by the resistance, it is also
a political party... And it's normal for all political movements to have an
opinion on any political matter.”
The majority of the March 8 camp's MPs, including Hizbullah's Loyal to the
Resistance bloc, have boycotted the parliamentary sessions, leading to a lack of
the needed two-thirds quorum.
“Hizbullah is practicing fair and just policies,” Fathali said.
He expressed his staunch support for Hizbullah, a long-standing ally of both
Iran and Syria. Image Credit: As Safir Newspaper
Amnesty Slams Lebanon Ban on Palestinians Fleeing Syria
Naharnet/Lebanon is acting in a "blatantly discriminatory" manner
by denying access to Palestinians fleeing the conflict in neighboring Syria,
Amnesty International said in a report on Tuesday. The watchdog said Lebanon has
imposed increasingly onerous entry requirements at the border with Syria and
that there was evidence it is trying to prevent Palestinian refugees from
entering via Beirut airport. "The Lebanese government's policies and practices
towards Palestinian refugees from Syria have led to a range of serious human
rights violations," said Amnesty. "The policies -- which treat Palestinian
refugees from Syria differently to other refugees -- are also blatantly
discriminatory," it added. Lebanon is hosting more than one million refugees
from Syria, or about a quarter of its population. Amnesty acknowledged that
hosting the refugees put Lebanon under "immense strain" and criticized the
international community for failing to provide more support. But, it said, there
was "no justification" for the different treatment of Palestinians from Syria,
who also represent a small number of the total population that has fled the
Syrian conflict. The group said Palestinians seeking to cross the border from
Syria were required to meet one of several criteria that were "extremely
difficult and costly". And the report documented instances in which Palestinians
said they met the criteria laid out, including a residency permit and proof of
relatives living legally in Lebanon, but were still denied entry. In one
instance, a woman who had returned to Syria to give birth, was denied the right
to return to her family staying in Lebanon.
In another, the parents of a 12-year-old returned to Syria to renew their
identity documents, leaving their son in Lebanon with his uncle, but were
subsequently denied reentry. And, the group said, a document leaked from
Beirut's airport advises all airlines to avoid carrying any Palestinian
passengers from Syria, regardless of the documents they have. It threatens
airlines with a fine and the cost of deporting passengers if they fail to
comply. "The policy set out in this document constitutes a clear breach of
international law," Amnesty said. Lebanon's government has denied there is any
blanket decision preventing the entry of Palestinians from Syria. Amnesty said
it received no response from the government to its queries about the letter and
incidences of denied entry. There were approximately 500,000 Palestinians in
Syria before the conflict, with refugee camps including Yarmuk in Damascus
directly afflicted by the fighting.
Agence France Presse
Report: Saudi Officials in Beirut to
Follow up Probe into Duroy Attack
Naharnet /Saudi security officials are Beirut to follow up the
results of the investigation into the Duroy Hotel blast last week which was
carried out by a Saudi suicide bomber, An Nahar daily reported Tuesday. Pan-Arab
daily Asharq al-Awsat said Friday that the delegation's visit is aimed at
identifying the suicide bomber. But according to An Nahar, the officials would
only seek information on the probe.
The bomber detonated his explosives at his room in Duroy Hotel that lies in
Beirut's Raouche area during a raid by General Security officers last Wednesday.
He died in the blast.
But another accomplice, also a Saudi, was wounded and was being questioned. An
Nahar quoted an informed source as saying that the suspect will be tried in
Lebanon. The al-Qaida-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant claimed
responsibility for the hotel suicide bombing, warning that dozens of more men
plan to carry out similar attacks.
---
Iraq Parliament Session Ends in Chaos
as Turmoil Deepens
Naharnet/Iraq's new parliament, charged with approving a new
government and facing a blistering offensive by Sunni militants, descended into
chaos Tuesday, with some lawmakers threatening each other and others walking
out. Despite calls from world leaders and senior clerics for Iraq's fractious
politicians to unite, deputies failed to fulfill the constitutional requirement
of electing a speaker and the first session of the parliament elected in April
ended in disarray. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's bid for a third term has been
battered by the militant offensive which has seen large chunks of five provinces
fall out of government control, on top of persistent allegations of sectarianism
and consolidation of power. The weeks-long crisis has alarmed world leaders,
displaced hundreds of thousands of people and polarized Iraq's Shiite, Sunni and
Kurdish populations. The disunity quickly manifested itself in the parliament
session, which included walkouts, verbal threats and widespread confusion over
the country's constitution.
Kurdish lawmaker Najiba Najib initially interrupted efforts to select a new
parliament speaker, calling on the central government to "end the blockade" and
send withheld budget funds to the autonomous Kurdish region. Kadhim al-Sayadi, a
lawmaker in Maliki's bloc, responded by threatening to "crush the heads" of
Iraq's Kurds.
Several Sunni MPs also walked out of the chamber when mention was made of the
Islamic State (IS) jihadist group, which is spearheading the militant offensive.
After a brief recess called to restore order, several lawmakers did not return,
leaving the session no longer quorate. Eventually, Mahdi Hafez, the MP presiding
over the session, said parliament would reconvene on July 8 if political leaders
are able to reach a deal on senior posts. As part of a de facto agreement in
place following previous elections, the prime minister is a Shiite Arab, the
speaker a Sunni Arab and the president a Kurd. All three posts are typically
chosen in tandem. Maliki increasingly looks to be on the way out, facing
criticism from senior leaders in all three major communities over allegations of
sectarianism, sidelining partners and a marked deterioration in security which
culminated in the launch on June 9 of the militant offensive.
But the incumbent nevertheless retains a chance, having won by far the most
seats in April 30 parliamentary elections. "This has become a much more
competitive race for the premiership position," said Ayham Kamel, Middle East
and North Africa director for the Eurasia Group consultancy. "The broad
direction here is to be more inclusive, at least when it comes to the Sunni
community, and figure out a power-sharing deal."Though the vast majority of
Iraq's Sunni Arab minority do not actively support militants, analysts say their
anger over alleged mistreatment by the Shiite-led authorities means they are
less likely to cooperate with the security forces, fostering an environment in
which militancy can flourish. Kamel noted that any military successes on the
ground could boost Maliki's chances, with thousands of troops taking part in an
ambitious operation aimed at retaking executed dictator Saddam Hussein's
hometown of Tikrit, which fell on June 11.
Iraqi forces initially wilted in the face of the onslaught but have since
performed more capably, with security officials touting apparent progress in
recapturing the city.
They have nevertheless suffered heavy casualties in the past few weeks, with
nearly 900 security personnel among the 2,400 people who died in June, the
highest such figure in years, according to the U.N.
The security forces are battling militants led by the IS jihadist group, which
on Sunday declared a "caliphate", an Islamic form of government last seen under
the Ottoman Empire, and ordered Muslims worldwide to pledge allegiance to their
chief. Though the move may not have immediate significant impact on the ground,
it is an indicator of the group's confidence and marks a move against Al-Qaida,
from which it broke away, in particular. Iraq has appealed for the U.S. to carry
out air strikes against the jihadists, but Washington, which further bolstered
security at its embassy on Monday, has so far not acceded, and has said that
planned deliveries of F-16 fighter jets could even be delayed. Baghdad has
meanwhile recently purchased more than a dozen Russian warplanes to bolster its
fledgling air force as it takes the fight to militants holding a string of towns
and cities. Agence France Presse
Judicial Source: Sarkozy Detained for
Questioning in French Graft Probe
Naharnet/Nicolas Sarkozy was on Tuesday detained for questioning
in a widening corruption probe, a judicial source told Agence France Presse, in
an unprecedented move against a former French president. Anti-corruption
investigators can hold Sarkozy for questioning for up to 24 hours, with a
possible extension of another day. Sarkozy had turned himself in for questioning
a day after investigators detained his lawyer Thierry Herzog and two
magistrates. The investigators are seeking to establish if the former president,
with the help of Herzog, attempted to pervert the course of justice.
They suspect Sarkozy, 59, sought to obtain inside information from one of the
magistrates about the progress of another probe and that he was tipped off that
his mobile phone had been tapped by judges looking into the alleged financing of
his 2007 election campaign by former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. The case
could be devastating for Sarkozy's hopes of a political comeback in time for the
next presidential campaign in 2017. Agence France Presse
Jihadists Seize Key Syria Town on Iraq
Border
Naharnet/The jihadist Islamic State (IS) took control of the key
Syrian border town of Albu Kamal on Tuesday after a fierce three-day battle with
rival fighters, a monitor said.
A spokesman for rebels fighting IS as well as President Bashar Assad's regime
said the jihadists took over the town after pouring in reinforcements from
neighboring Iraq, where they have seized chunks of territory in a swift
offensive. The takeover comes two days after IS declared a "caliphate" in
territory they seized in both Syria and Iraq, and ordered the world's Muslims to
obey its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. "The Islamic State took total control of
Albu Kamal in (the oil-rich province of) Deir Ezzor, after fierce fighting
pitting it against rebels backed by Al-Qaida affiliate Al-Nusra Front," said the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Omar Abu Leyla, the official rebel spokesman for Deir Ezzor province, told AFP
"the battle was fierce... But IS has won this round."
He said the jihadists won "after deploying major reinforcements from Iraq into
Syria on Monday night". Fighting has raged for months in Deir Ezzor between the
jihadists, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, against
rebels backed by Al-Nusra Front. The rebels held their ground for most of that
time but the jihadists were bolstered "mainly because of the heavy weapons"
captured from fleeing Iraqi troops during the lightening offensive, said Abu
Leyla.
Hundreds of families fled Albu Kamal as IS took over, he said.
Meanwhile regime warplanes carried out four air strikes on Albu Kamal after IS
seized the town, said the Observatory.
The Britain-based monitor also reported fighting in Shheil, an Al-Nusra Front
bastion some 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of Albu Kamal. Syria's war began as
a peaceful revolt demanding Assad's ouster, but morphed into a conflict after
the regime unleashed a massive crackdown on dissent.
Many months into the fighting, jihadists started streaming into Syria, and
analysts have long warned of the conflict leading to a regional conflagration.
Agence France Presse/Associated Press
Barzani: Iraqi Kurds to Vote on
Independence in Months
Naharnet /Iraq's Kurds will hold an independence referendum within months, their
leader Massud Barzani said on Tuesday, as the region reels under a brutal
offensive by Sunni jihadists who have declared an Islamic caliphate. Barzani
said the time was right for a vote as Iraq was already effectively partitioned
following the lightning gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS),
formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). "We will hold
a referendum in Kurdistan and we will respect and be bound by the decision of
our people and hope that others will do likewise," he told the BBC.
Asked whether the vote would take place soon, Barzani added: "I can't fix a date
right now but definitely it's a question of months. But of course it must be
decided by parliament."
The region would need to establish an independent electoral authority before a
vote could take place, Barzani noted. More than 2,000 people have died so far in
the push by IS, which Iraq's security forces have struggled to combat. Regional
power Turkey has already said it would be opposed to independence for Iraq's
Kurds.
Agence France Presse
U.N.: More than 2,400 Killed in Iraq
in June
Naharnet /Violence has claimed the lives of 2,417 Iraqis in June,
making it the deadliest month so far this year, the United Nations said on
Tuesday, underlining the daunting challenge the government faces as it struggles
to confront Islamic extremists who have seized large swaths of territory in the
north and west. In recent weeks, fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant have spearheaded a lightning offensive across Iraq, plunging it into its
deepest crisis since the last U.S. troops left in 2011. The al-Qaida breakaway
group now controls territory stretching from northern Syria as far as the
outskirts of Baghdad in central Iraq. The figures issued by the U.N. mission to
Iraq put last month's civilian death toll at 1,531, with 886 security forces
killed. UNAMI added that 2,287 Iraqis, including 1,763 civilians, were wounded.
The figures exclude deaths in embattled Anbar province, which is largely
controlled by Sunni militants. The second deadliest month this year was May,
with 799 Iraqis killed, including 603 civilians. April's death toll was 750. The
latest casualty figures exceed even last year's peak. The U.N. reported that
last July at least 1,057 Iraqis were killed and another 2,326 were wounded.
"The staggering number of civilian casualties in one month points to the urgent
need for all to ensure that civilians are protected," the U.N. Special
Representative in Iraq, Nickolay Mladenov, said in the statement. Mladenov
called on Iraqi political rivals to "work together to foil attempts to destroy
the social fabric of Iraqi society." Through brute force and meticulous
planning, the Sunni extremist group — which said it was changing its name to
simply the Islamic State, dropping the reference to Iraq and the Levant — has
managed to effectively erase the Syria-Iraq border and lay the foundations of
its proto-state. Along the way, it has battled Syrian rebels, Kurdish militias
and the Syrian and Iraqi militaries.
SourceAssociated Press
Prince Khaled, The Sacked Saudi Deputy
Defense Minister Named Spy Chief
Naharnet/Saudi King Abdullah appointed a new spy chief, giving
the job to the former deputy defense minister days after sacking him from that
post, SPA state news agency reported Tuesday. Prince Khaled bin Bandar bin Abdul
Aziz had been unexpectedly removed from his post on Saturday at the request of
his boss the defense minister, after only 45 days on the job. There was no
reason for his sacking but early Tuesday the SPA said that Prince Khaled had
been appointed "head of the General Intelligence with a minister rank" by royal
decree. The announcement comes after jihadists spearheading a Sunni militant
offensive in Iraq have declared on Sunday an "Islamic caliphate", ordering
Muslims around the world to pledge allegiance to their chief. Last week Abdullah
slammed the jihadists, who are also active in Syria, and instructed authorities
to take "necessary measures" to defend his oil-rich kingdom amid fears the Iraq
offensive could spill over into Saudi Arabia. Prince Khaled will take over from
Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the kingdom's former pointman on the Syrian conflict
who headed the intelligence service for two years until April. A separate royal
decree reported by SPA named Prince Bandar as an "advisor to the king and his
special envoy." Prince Bandar, a former ambassador to the United States, is
widely regarded as among the most influential powerbrokers in the Middle East
and was appointed intelligence chief in 2012. Diplomats said in February that
Prince Bandar was sidelined in Saudi efforts to support rebels fighting Syrian
President Bashar Assad. They said his management of the Syrian file had
triggered American criticism and the matter was discussed during U.S. officials'
visits to the kingdom. The prince himself reproached Washington for its decision
not to intervene militarily in Syria, and for preventing its allies from
providing rebels with much-needed weapons, according to diplomats. Saudi Arabia
has been strongly supportive of the rebels battling Assad. Agence France Presse
Israel air force bombs terrorist bases
in Gaza, blasts Palestinian kidnappers' Hebron homes
DEBKAfile Special Report July 1, 2014/Monday night, June 30, the Israeli Air
Force bombed 34 Hamas and Jihad Islami facilities in the Gaza Strip while, in
the West Bank town of Hebron, soldiers demolished sections of buildings
inhabited by the kidnappers who murdered the three Israeli teenagers Eyal
Yifrach, Gil-Ad Shaer and Naftali Frenkel.
Their bodies were found during the day abandoned in the field of a Palestinian
village after a nerve-wracking 18-day hunt. The Israeli cabinet went into
emergency session Monday night after the discovery and will continue sitting
Tuesday to decide on fitting punishment for this shocking crime. Meanwhile, air
force planes and drones struck 34 empty Hamas and Jihad Islami facilities in the
Gaza Strip, from which the terrorists had fled to safety in good time.
debkafile: The ministers and army chiefs knew that the enemy, which kidnapped
and murdered the three teens in cold blood, would again escape harm and, worst
still, lose none of their capacity to continue harassing southern Israel with a
rocket blitz.
And indeed, the Israeli air bombardment was followed immediately by three
rockets launched from the Gaza Strip against the Eshkol District. They damaged
buildings. There were no Israeli casualties.
The two Palestinian terrorist groups were making it clear that should Israel
intensify its punishment for the boys’ murders, they too were fully capable of
answering back with heavier and more precise guided rocket strikes against the
Israeli population.
debkafile’s military sources: Both the IDF and Hamas-Gaza have evidently opted
for a controlled confrontation until one of the two adversaries determines how
to proceed next. Israel’s deliberations continue Tuesday amid pressing demands
by Israelis, stunned by the tragedy, for action to hurt the terrorists where it
counts and deter them from ever again abducting an Israeli.
The statement Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu issued from the cabinet meeting
Monday night was a clear vow: “Hamas is responsible, and Hamas will pay.”
On the West Bank, Israeli soldiers early Tuesday razed sections of the Hebron
homes of the two Hamas activists, Marwan Qawasmeh, 37, and Omar Abu Aysha, 33,
who are held guilty of the kidnap and murder of the three Israeli boys. The
attorney general who was first consulted ruled that the demolition of the large
dwellings must be confined to the sections inhabited by the two men.
The half a million population of the Hebron district, where the kidnaps and
murders took place, has been placed under lockdown for the hunt for the
perpetrators, who have not been seen since the kidnapping occurred on June 10.
According to Israeli intelligence, they are still holed up somewhere in this
district. At some points, Palestinian youths stormed the soldiers who opened
fire to repel them.
Near Jerusalem, an Israeli woman of 21 was rescued from a house in Beit Jallah,
which adjoins the Jerusalem suburb of Gilo, claiming she had been snatched by
Palestinians. Heavy army and policy forces, moved into this Palestinian location
to retrieve her. Her claim is being investigated..
In a separate incident, Israeli soldiers on a counter-terror operation in the
Jenin refugee camp further north came under attack. A Palestinian mob hurling
firebombs, rocks, explosives and iron bars was broken up when the Israeli
soldiers began shooting. One of the assailants was shot dead.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas was on the phone to world leaders
Monday night and early Tuesday to plead with them to hold Israel, driven to
retaliate for the teenagers’ murders, in check. No decisions were reached in
Ramallah about the future of the unity government Abbas sealed with Hamas last
month.
In his message of condolences to the Israeli nation, US President Barack Obama
urged “all parties to “refrain from steps that could further destabilize the
situation” and encouraged Israel and the Palestinians “to work together to find
those responsible for the crime with US support.”
The Western ISIS and its Second
Rebirth
Diana Moukalled/Asharq Alawsat
Tuesday, 1 Jul, 2014
“We will go to Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon; wherever Sheikh Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi wants
us to go, we will go . . . the hope of the nation is in your hands, Sheikh.” The
person who uttered these words is not an Iraqi, Syrian or even an Arab jihadist.
He is a young Briton of Yemeni origins, born and bred in Britain and who studied
there and was successful in his work.
His father, who is stricken by the sight of his son fighting for the Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), explains that four British universities offered
his son places in which to read medicine; but Abu Muthana Al-Yemeni, as the son
now calls himself, chose to go to fight for ISIS in Syria, and persuaded his
17-year-old brother to join him.
Here he is now declaring his readiness to give his life on the command of the
Iraqi leader of ISIS, the mysterious and bloody figure, Baghdadi.
Yemeni appeared with a group of other young men from the UK and Australia in a
promotional video for ISIS, speaking in English and calling on other Western
youth to join the “mother of all battles,” which they believe is raging in the
Levant.
This video, in addition to other videos, websites and pictures of fighters
arriving from Europe to fight for ISIS, have shocked the Western world.
We are not looking at the youth from our own countries, who are forced through a
feeling of political and social hopelessness to embrace extremism and fight; we
are looking at a steady wave of Western recruits being attracted to fight
alongside this group.
According to security information, we are talking about 3,000 fighters from
Belgium, France, the UK and Australia, with the British jihadists making up the
largest force among them.
These facts take us back to the situation that concerned Western societies
following the New York and Washington attacks in 2001, which formed the birth of
the globalized generation of Al-Qaeda, including those members who studied and
lived in the West.
The concern doubled with the group’s rebirth, which was represented by
Westerners joining Salafist jihadist Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in Iraq. And now the
second rebirth has come, represented by ISIS.
Here we are witnessing a greater influx of fighters from the West to an
organization that is possibly the cruelest and most violent in the name of
religion and the nation in their fighting and actions.
The same question arises again: what drives youths to leave their societies and
relatively stable lives, some even successful, to put their lives in jeopardy?
Is it a crisis of identity and inability to integrate in Western societies, or
an attraction to a belief, religion and greater affiliation?
What is the lure of a jihadist culture in its ISIS incarnation that drives the
youth to leave their previous lives and join a way of life that could easily end
in ghastly death?
There are many explanations for the frustration these youths feel for their
communities in the West, their eagerness to follow an extremist discourse and
their adoption of a cause which rejects their lifestyles and the lifestyles of
their families, leading them to see the fighting they are about to take part in
as an exciting adventure, which is what seems to be expressed in their videos
and testimonies on social media.
French philosopher Jean Baudrillard blamed media portrayal, which he saw as an
ally to globalization and Western hegemony, for most of the consequences of
terrorism, from a philosophical and psychological point of view, that sees that
every dominant power bears within it the seeds of self-destruction, and even its
desire and its peoples’ will to die.
Baudrillard then depicted the events of September 11 as if they were a
collective Western dream that came true—due to the intensification of the
violence shown in pictures and broadcast around the clock.
Now, following the great eruption of violence in our region, it seems that the
world is revolving around a frightening vacuum, where no one, neither in the
West nor here, has the slightest idea about the outcome of these phenomena.
Terrorism on Delivery
Sawsan Al-Abtah/Asharq Alawsat
Tuesday, 1 Jul, 2014
The actions of the terrorists who have launched a new wave of attacks on Lebanon
via bombings in the Dahieh suburbs south of Beirut have gone beyond being simply
a response to Hezbollah for its intervention in the fighting in Syria and a bid
to deter its leaders.
The success achieved at lightning speed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) in Iraq has raised the militant group’s spirits and encouraged it to
spread to new Arab regions, with different tactics and even wider objectives.
The terrorists’ desire is to ignite Sunni-Shi’ite unrest in Lebanon, sparing no
one, and at any cost. Reports have been confirmed about a plan to bomb a large
hospital full of patients in the Dahieh, which if implemented would cause
families of victims to react in a ruthless sectarian manner. Senior figures,
political and military, are also the targets of the terrorists, whose aim is to
fuel further anger and unrest among the population. However, intentions to cause
this kind of sedition through assassinations and attacks on populated areas may
backfire on ISIS and its affiliates this time—Lebanon is not Western Iraq, and
Beirut is not Mosul. The terrorists partially succeeded, in the last wave of
violence that arrived in Lebanon by land from the Syrian border, championed by
Syrians and Lebanese, to persuade some that their target was Hezbollah.
However, the new wave of terrorists of various nationalities who arrived at
Beirut airport with the aim of attacking hotels in the city, hitherto immune to
such threats, shows that Lebanon as a whole is now the target, as it is its
economy that is being hit through the targeting of the tourism industry. Every
citizen must be vigilant to the point of sacrificing themselves in order to stop
these criminals.
The terrorists’ hysteria and their movement—which seems to have no particular
aim or direction except to terrorize people—is spreading a state of confusion in
Beirut and igniting enormous hatred for the murderers. How can any Lebanese
citizen believe that Hezbollah is the only target when reports mention that a
lorry laden with three tons of explosives is roaming about undetected, while no
one knows where it could explode, and cars, equally equipped to kill, are also
cruising among the people, biding their time to find their victims?
Everyone is affected when the tourist season is hit for the fourth year running,
and Beirut hotels become hideouts for terrorists, their rooms scenes of criminal
investigations and their entrances an arena of military operations that are
broadcast on satellite channels.
The terrorists’ hysteria also increased when it was discovered that their
organizations were being infiltrated to their very core by intelligence; that
their members arrived in Lebanon only to find that their names and photos, their
list of targets and the places they intended to visit, arrived before them.
Lebanese intelligence with US and other Western help, gives the impression that
they can find a needle in a haystack. And indeed, four preemptive security
operations within one week is something to be reckoned with. Members of a
terrorist cell in northern Lebanon planning to assassinate a senior officer were
arrested. A planned bombing in Dahr El-Baydar was uncovered before the driver
reached his target. The suicide bomber of El-Tayyouneh in the Dahieh was
arrested before he reached his objective, and part of the plans of the
terrorists targeting hotels were thwarted, and the search is now on for the rest
of them.
This does not mean that Lebanon is saved, but it does indicate that the
earth-shattering victory by “ISIS and its affiliates” in Iraq has given it
self-confidence, which could in fact be fatal. Not only because it has rushed
its acts of destruction and its bid to control areas where it has no actual
support among the population, but also because it continues to antagonize the
public and at the same time give itself a terrible image—one that implies that
those arrested are not human, but vampires from old legends.
The real names of the suicide bombers are forgotten, but they themselves call to
mind the names Lilith, Omachto and Gallo, mentioned in the legends of
Mesopotamia, and their evil souls that threaten all forms of life.
The terrorist at the “Napoleon Hotel” said during his interrogation that he was
just a delivery man. The young Frenchman, who originates from the Comoros
Islands, had no idea what he was going to blow up or how. He said he landed in
Beirut awaiting a call to go to the destination he was instructed to go to, as
though he were a delivery man in a fast-food restaurant.
It seems that the position of the suicide bomber is that of being a cog in a
huge machine. He gives his soul to his employers in order to ignite fires
wherever they tell him to. The big and so far elusive question is what are the
Lebanese parts in this evil machine—which so far seem insignificant.
Those few people who carried out the terrorist operations to date were trained
in Syria, and their role was secondary. The new arrivals are foreign suicide
bombers—and foreign to the Lebanese environment. The question which no one has
answered is: who are the Lebanese who are receiving, supporting and coordinating
this satanic band that has suddenly arrived in Beirut and settled in the heart
of the capital? How are the terrorists moving around in the bustling heart of
the city without having a solid base in the city from which to carry out their
criminal acts?
For a terrorist to be only the “delivery man” may be true, but it is hard to
believe that Al-Qaeda has not opened a branch in Lebanon—even a small modest
one— in order to arrange for such “orders” to be delivered. This situation needs
a high level of security alertness, as well as comprehensive and uncompromising
political support.
Sunnis of Iraq, between reason and
fanaticism
Tuesday, 1 July 2014
By: Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya
In Iraq, one can hear all sorts of voices, from extreme views of reason to
extreme fanaticism. There are also those who call for reconciliation and those
who call for dividing the country. This is because Iraq is in a state of war and
on the verge of a larger war that we can only hope will not erupt.
We all blame Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki because he’s the one behind this
chaos and strife and is pushing the country into an abyss that it may not be
able to climb back out of for the next 20 years. Maliki is also pushing his
government to fail, like those of Syria, Somalia and Afghanistan.
“Most of the countries in the region will not accept that Iraq be governed by
extremist or terrorist groups”
Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Wise politicians and religious and social leaders in the country realize the
danger of this terrifying fate. However, some people cannot understand the
dimensions of the problem and its impact on the future. These people include
some Arab Iraqi Sunnis who have suddenly appeared on television channels laying
out their conditions, making threats and rejecting the preliminary ideas of
reconciliation. They resemble extremist Shiites in their ignorance of the depth
and gravity of the crisis. Also, they don’t represent the large majority of
Iraqis who want a country that represents them all and grants them what they’ve
been deprived of for 30 years due to wars and bad governance. During Maliki’s
eight years in power, most Shiites got nothing but poverty and only a few became
very rich.
Raising demands
Meanwhile among the Sunnis, the people of reason raise demands that serve the
interests of all Iraqis and form the basis for reconciliation and for
establishing a fair state. Most of their demands seek a new beginning that would
be marked by releasing detainees, abolishing the law of “Uprooting the Baath,”
and respecting the right of all Iraqi political parties to participate in a
government. These were most of the demands of the protesters in Anbar six months
ago, protesters which Maliki pursued and tried to eliminate under the false
accusation of terrorism.
The Sunnis who are making statements outside of this context are like their
extremist Shiite counterparts. They aim to sabotage the reconciliation process
and spark chaos in a bid to take over the country. One of them has said that all
Arab Sunnis who were engaged in the political process such as former ministers,
members of parliament and provincial governors do not represent Sunni rebels
today! It’s clear he wants to eliminate Sunni representatives to fulfill
personal aims. Those who boycotted the political process over the past eight
years are to blame for neglecting the rights of their people. The absence of
Arab Sunnis’ participation is the reason behind the weakness of the state and
the domination of Maliki and his comrades, and not the other way around.
Chaos and destruction
When extremists threaten chaos and destruction, they are harming their people in
Sunni provinces who are suffering more than others. Sunni extremists, as well as
Shiite extremists, must see beyond the end of their noses and realize the
political fact that they will not find one Sunni state - or any other state -
that will support them if they decide to sabotage reconciliation, or if they
push towards toppling the political regime instead of reforming it, or if they
decide to divide the country. Most of the countries in the region reject the
division of Iraq despite their disagreements over what is happening and they
will not accept that the country be governed by extremist or terrorist groups.
Those defending the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria must be aware that they are
confronting the entire world; mainly Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, the
United States, Europe and Russia. It’s impossible for extremists to defeat this
international consensus.
What Anbar protesters called for last December was mostly fair and deserves to
be supported. Their demands have been widely supported by Iraqi Shiites, the
Kurds and Sunni leaders and have put Maliki in a difficult position. The people
of Anbar drove Iraqi and international public opinion against Maliki’s failed
government, which was willing to sabotage Iraq in order to survive. This is why
Sunnis must not let extremists hijack their revolution, their demands or their
minds, now that they’ve come close to achieving the justice they have long
demanded.
Will ISIS grow or is it set to meet
its death?
Tuesday, 1 July 2014
Jamal Khashoggi /Al Arabiya
American President Barack Obama is betting that over time, the Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will be eliminated. He clearly said so during a televised
interview last Sunday. Obama said: “Local residents in Iraq will eventually
reject extremists due to their violence and extremism.” Now, unless the ISIS
surprises us with a new policy, slyness and wisdom, this is an acceptable and
possible theory especially when considering the history of similar salafist
jihadist groups who exhausted themselves by their extremism, hastiness and
confidence in their own power.
So, there’s no American military operation against the ISIS. Last Wednesday, the
Americans were quick to deny a state-run Iraqi television’s news report alleging
that American jets shelled ISIS posts. The Americans denied this report just
minutes after it was released. This confirms their concern to avoid the
confrontation with the organization - until now. It’s an American military and
political analysis that’s even considered acceptable and proper by America’s
allies who are worried about the expansion of the ISIS - allies like Saudi
Arabia. In an article published in The Telegraph, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to
the UK, Mohammad bin Nawaf, clearly called for not intervening and said Iraqis
must sort out their crisis by themselves. He was also more specific as he
clearly voiced his rejection of air strikes against extremists. “An airstrike
will not just eliminate extremists – who we do not support – but will
effectively sign the death warrant of many Iraqi citizens,” he said.
“There are six million people who now live under ISIS, who will pay their wages?
Who will provide for their needs? ”
Jamal Kashoggi
It’s an accurate description of the current situation. The only one who wants
American airstrikes against ISIS - where they are stationed in Sunni Iraqi areas
- is Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who’s supposed to be the protector of all
Iraq. When yesterday’s allies told him they will not be the air force of
sectarian Shiite militias, he ordered his jets to shell rebel areas and allowed
his other sectarian ally Bashar al-Assad to shell targets inside what is
supposedly his country. This resulted in more victims and saw Assad’s barrel
bomb tactic being used in Iraq. It also resulted in more Iraqi Sunni hatred of
Maliki, his regime and sect and further welcoming of the ISIS.
A bigger dream
Therefore, it’s possible to say that the ISIS will last but will not “expand,”
knowing that the slogan “lasting and expanding” is the ISIS’ most popular slogan
on social media networks. These angry youths have a bigger dream than the mere
state of Iraq and Syria. Another reason it is possible to say ISIS is “lasting”
is that ISIS, as Kurdish politician Barham Salih put it, “has grown through the
gaps which Iraqi politicians created among them.” Mr. Maliki is steadily
creating more gaps. It’s as if he intentionally wants to grant ISIS more reasons
to be powerful. He strongly opposes ceding power and he still deals with the
constitution - which he violated more than once - like it still means something,
even after the notion of “one country” collapsed. Unless active American and
British pressures on Baghdad, Riyadh, Tehran and Arbil succeed and unless a
government that can confront ISIS is installed, the group will last.
It’s clear that the outburst of Mosul’s victory and what followed of the Iraqi
army’s collapse and ISIS’ entrance to several cities and towns and its seizure
of military bases have decreased as if it’s reached its peak. It’s now possible
to draw an approximate map of ISIS’ territory: It’s most of Sunni Iraq and
central Iraq. It’s also a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Kurdistan as it
also began to draw the borders it wants for itself and has established a buffer
zone between ISIS and Iran. In the east and south, ISIS has reached its extent.
Although Samraa is Sunni, ISIS did not enter it due to the government’s power
there and due to the strong presence of the Islamic party there. Instead, ISIS
attacked the Brotherhood there and accused them of treason. As for Baghdad, it’s
still unattainable for ISIS as Maliki and those before him altered its
demographics. Its Sunnis have decreased by 13 percent and therefore ISIS has
lost possible supporters in the city. When it comes to its victories, ISIS does
not depend on its military power - which experts disagree over and which
certainly doubled after seizing Mosul - and it does not depend on the policy of
intimidation and horror which it spreads. It depends on dismantling the
political and social infrastructure of cities and regions it targets through
sleeper cells and through recruiting men and terrorizing people. It also targets
this infrastructure by exploiting the mistakes of politicians like Maliki and
others who resemble him. It then sweeps these cities and towns like a torrent
sweeps a low-lying land. Perhaps the aforementioned also answers the question of
whether ISIS will not just last, but also expand.
Black banners and flags
No ceasefire will be announced but black banners and flags of the Islamic state
have begun to flutter on the Kurdish-ISIS borders - so to speak. Then it’s only
a matter of time and borders will be drawn with Shiite Iraq (maybe this is what
Maliki and Iran want), and then some sort of secret agreement will be reached to
cease shelling in exchange for ending suicide bombing operations in the Shiite
heartland of Iraq. Then , time will go on and the outcome will completely depend
on the performance of ISIS which will confront three challenges. The first one
is specifying its relations with other factions and tribes. Its problem is that
it does not see itself as an organization. It views itself as the “Islamic
state” and believes everyone must listen to it and obey it. Success brings
victories and so does intimidation, but it could also lead to rejection as
occurred in 2008 when local tribes turned against al-Qaeda and its leader
Zarqawi in Anbar. ISIS hasn’t forgiven them for this until now but it seems it’s
learnt from that mistake.
The second challenge is its relations with the residents. There are six million
people who now live under ISIS, who will pay their wages? Who will provide for
their needs? How will they export their oil? Will the world besiege their state?
The Kurds will certainly not. Will they interfere in residents’ lives and
restructure them according to their extremist salafist convictions? Will this be
a reason to revolt? Only time will tell. The third and most dangerous challenge
is the carefree hours in Anbar when ISIS leaders relax following a heavy meal
and gather around a calm fire sipping tea, and when someone asks their emir what
their next move will be and whether it’s a terrorist operation in New York,
London or Riyadh as time and distance are no longer a problem. In this case,
even Obama will turn into a George Bush.
There’s no need to worry as there’s still time to take action and there is time
until a massive and all-inclusive battle in Syria. But until then, I hope our
countries stay safe.