LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 11/14
Question: "Is the Christian life supposed
to be boring?"
GotQuestions.org/Answer: There are many
misconceptions about the Christian life, and one is that it
is boring. The truth is the Christian life is where we find
true joy and lasting peace, hope and contentment. These
things, like all good and perfect things, come from God
(James 1:17). The difficulty is that, if you’re not a
believer in Christ, you truly don’t know what you’re
missing. This is not to say that the Christian life is easy.
One writer describes growing in the Christian faith as being
“on a never-ending downward escalator. In order to grow we
have to turn around and sprint up the escalator putting up
with perturbed looks from everyone else who is gradually
moving downward.” Christ never deluded anyone into thinking
it would be easy to follow Him (see Matthew 10:34-39). It’s
not easy, but the hardships help prevent boredom. Those who
believe the Christian life is boring have never taken God’s
invitation to “taste and see that the LORD is good” (Psalm
34:8). Instead, they selfishly pursue whatever they think
will make them “not bored” or happy or content. The problem
is, the things of this world are temporary and can never
truly satisfy. The Bible tells us that sowing to please our
sinful nature will surely lead to destruction (Galatians
6:8). King Solomon, the wisest and richest person who ever
lived, had everything a person could possibly want. He said,
“I denied myself nothing my eyes desired; I refused my heart
no pleasure” (Ecclesiastes 2:10). Solomon had it all, but he
concluded that it was “meaningless” and likened it to
“chasing after the wind” (v. 11). In other words, he had
everything this world had to offer, and he was bored.
Sometimes, a new Christian is surprised that his new life is
not “more exciting,” as if the Christian life is supposed to
be a thrill-a-minute extravaganza. No life is that. Boredom
is something we must all overcome. Everyone stands in line
at the grocery store, gets caught in traffic, or is given
jobs he’d rather not do. Part of the problem may be how
“boredom” is defined. Is it a lack of excitement? Nothing
can stimulate perpetual exhilaration. Is it inactivity? If
so, then the key is to find something to do. Is it
uninterest? If so, the key is to be more curious. Is it a
lack of “fun”? In that case, “fun” needs to be defined,
since “fun” is itself a highly subjective concept. Some
people assume that being a Christian is boring because
they’ve heard that Christians have to give up all the “fun”
things in life. It’s true that Christians give up some
things, but it’s not the fun. Christians give up their sin,
their self-destructive behavior, their addictions, their
negative attitudes and their ignorance of God. In return,
they receive “righteousness, peace and joy in the Holy
Spirit” (Romans 14:17). They “live as children of light” in
a dark world (Ephesians 5:8). The mistakes of their past no
longer have a stronghold in their lives. They no longer live
for themselves but for the One who died for them. They serve
others and make a difference (Romans 14:7; Philippians 2:4).
They are becoming everything that God created them to be. It
is virtually impossible to be bored in such a life.
The only thing in this world that has eternal value is a
relationship with Jesus Christ. A growing, committed
Christian will find that life is never boring. There’s
always another step of faith to take, another relationship
to build, another person to serve. Is the Christian life
supposed to be “boring”? Absolutely not. Jesus said, “I have
come that they may have life, and have it to the full” (John
10:10). Recommended Resources: Boring: Finding an
Extraordinary God in an Ordinary Life by Michael Kelley and
Logos Bible Software.
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters &
Releases from miscellaneous sources For January 11/14
Winning the Peace by Failing in Geneva/By Jeremy Shapiro
and Samuel Charap/Foreign Affairs/January 11/14
As Obama dithers, Egypt ramps up its nuclear options/By:
Raymond Stock/Fox News/January 11/14
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources For January 11/14
Lebanese Related News
Iran Says Nuclear Talks Found Solutions to 'All Disagreements', EU Reports 'Very Good Progress'
Suleiman: Positive Signs from Hariri on 8-8-8 Cabinet, New Govt. in 10 Days if No Consensus
U.S. Defense Official Visits Lebanon, Voices Commitment to Prevent Spillover of Syrian Crisis
Al-Rahi Tells Hizbullah Delegation Constitutional Junctures Must Happen in 'Consensual' Manner
New government bid gains momentum
No answers yet to questions on Cabinet: Future MP
Jumblat Expresses Hope that Cabinet Would See Light Soon
International Pressure to Elect President on Time, France Rejects Extension
Gemayel Denies Direct Contacts with March 8, Says Coordination Ongoing with March 14
Berri Sticks to Rotation of Portfolios but Says Policy Statement Should be Left Out of Consultations
Three Soldiers Wounded in Clash between Army, Gunmen in Tripoli
Army Hands Over al-Majed's Body to Saudi Embassy
Social Affairs Ministry: Child Sex Abuse Victim Undergoing Checkups, Evaluation
Syrian Child Sexually Assaulted by HIV-Positive Man in Marjeyoun
Pregnant Woman 'Brutally Attacked' by Relatives
FPM Voices Optimism Regarding Cabinet Formation, Says Party Facilitating Matter
Civil marriage is legal in Lebanon: experts
Miscellaneous Reports And News
Assad's forces kill dozens of rebels in Homs city
ISIS fights back against Syria rebel assault
41 Palestinians Dead from Hunger, Medical Shortages in Syria Camp
500 Killed in Syria Rebel-Jihadist Fighting
Russia Tells U.S. It Will Continue Backing Assad
Iran: Nuke talks found solutions over all disagreements
Iran, EU Inch towards Putting Nuclear Deal into Action
Iran, Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal
Rouhani, Netanyahu to attend Davos meeting
80% of Israelis Say Peace Talks Will Fail
Sharon remains in grave condition following dramatic decline
Will Israel be recognized as Jewish state?
Iraqi troops clash with Al-Qaeda militants in west
C.African President Resigns after Deadly Unrest
No answers yet to questions on Cabinet: Future MP
January 10, 2014/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Future Movement has yet to receive satisfactory
answers from the March 8 coalition on a series of questions
that could pave the way for agreement on the next
government, MP Nuhad Mashnouq said Friday.
“We put the five questions forward as a foundation [for
accepting or rejecting a Cabinet formation] and we still
haven’t received a yes or no or clear answers,” he told LBC.
On Wednesday, the Future Movement demanded answers to five
questions before accepting a new Cabinet proposal based on
an 8-8-8 lineup.
Mashnouq said his party has yet to receive clear answers “on
the blocking third, the Baabda Declaration in the policy
statement, the formation of the Cabinet, the rotation of
ministerial seats and the legitimate right to veto the name
of a candidate that both the president and prime
minister-designate reject.”
He said he had been tasked by former Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora to discuss with former Prime Minister Saad Hariri
“the issue of the five questions that we put forward that
would allow us to decide whether to accept or reject a
Cabinet formation.”“There is an ongoing discussion but there
is no agreement up until now and the foundations of the
ongoing talks for all of us are the five questions that were
outlined in the past 24 hours,” he said.
He also said President Michel Sleiman, Prime
Minister-designate Tammam Salam and MP Walid Jumblatt were
contacting various sides to bring viewpoints closer.
Suleiman: Positive Signs from Hariri on
8-8-8 Cabinet, New Govt. in 10 Days if No Consensus
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/President Michel Suleiman
announced on Friday that he received positives signs from
former Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the formation of an
all-inclusive cabinet based on the 8-8-8 lineup. Suleiman
stated, however, that if no consensus was reached over an
all-embracing cabinet within the coming 10 days, a new
council of ministers will be formed. “Regarding March 14
camp's queries on the cabinet's formation, PM-designate
Tammam Salam is the one to answer them,” he told LBCI
television. Efforts to end the nine-month government
deadlock have intensified in the past few days through a
series of meetings held by different officials to avert the
formation of a non partisan cabinet. Al-Mustaqbal
parliamentary bloc leader Fouad Saniora could soon hold
separate talks with Suleiman and Speaker Nabih Berri over
the matter, An Nahar daily reported on Friday. LBCI revealed
that Saniora will inform Berri about March 14's stance on
the 8-8-8 government lineup. Reports said that Suleiman and
Berri could also meet before Monday and mentioned possible
talks between Salam and Hariri in Europe. The flurry of
political activity comes amid optimism that the rival
parties could agree on the formation of a cabinet in which
the March 8 and 14 alliances and centrists would get 8
ministers each. The rivals are hoping to clinch a deal on
the all-embracing cabinet by the end of the month to avoid
the formation of a neutral government. Suleiman and Salam
have been clinging into the option of a non partisan cabinet
to avoid a bigger vacuum ahead of the presidential
elections. The president's advisor, former Minister Khalil
Hrawi, visited Saniora, Salam and Berri's advisor Caretaker
Minister Ali Hassan Khalil on Thursday. Caretaker Minister
Wael Abou Faour, who is Progressive Socialist Party leader
Walid Jumblat's envoy, also held talks with Suleiman and
Salam. Abou Faour also contacted al-Mustaqbal movement
through Nader Hariri. Jumblat, a centrist, is playing a
major mediating role to reach an agreement on a new cabinet
nine months after Salam's appointment. He told As Safir
daily that he was exerting all efforts to bring the
viewpoints of political parties closer.
Al-Rahi Tells
Hizbullah Delegation Constitutional Junctures Must Happen in
'Consensual' Manner
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/Maronite
Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Friday said that
“constitutional junctures” must happen in a “consensual and
responsible manner,” according to state-run National News
Agency.
Al-Rahi voiced his remarks during a meeting in Bkirki with a
Hizbullah delegation comprising politburo member Ghaleb Abu
Zainab and Hajj Mustafa al-Hajj Ali. Bishop Samir Mazloum
and national dialogue committee member Hareth Shehab also
attended the talks according to NNA. During the meeting, al-Rahi
stressed “the need to hold the constitutional junctures in a
consensual and responsible manner which would restore the
normal and democratic cycle of political life and
constitutional institutions in Lebanon.” For his part, Abu
Zainab stated after the meeting that “consultations with His
Eminence are an essential and necessary thing during this
period,” noting that “positive atmospheres engulfed the
meeting.” The Hizbullah official hoped “these atmospheres
will reflect on all the talks that are ongoing in the
country to pull it out of its domestic crises.” He also
hoped the cabinet formation process and the presidential
election will take place according to the “national and
constitutional spirit.”Meanwhile, MTV said al-Rahi
reportedly told the Hizbullah delegation that "a consensual,
all-embracing cabinet is better than a disputed de facto
cabinet."Amid a flurry of talks among political forces on
the formation of a new government, former Premier Saad
Hariri reportedly accepted the so-called 8-8-8 cabinet
formula on Friday, as President Michel Suleiman stated he
will form a government within 10 days if no consensus was
reached between political foes.
International
Pressure to Elect President on Time, France Rejects
Extension
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/Western countries in
addition to Russia and China are expected to exert more
pressure on Lebanese parties to elect a new president on
time and avoid a vacuum, Western diplomatic sources said.
The sources told pan-Arab daily al-Hayat published on Friday
that the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China are among
the countries pushing for parliament's election of the
president starting March 25.
President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ends in May but
the Constitution says the 128-member parliament should start
holding sessions on March 25 to elect a head of state. Al-Hayat
also quoted a French official as saying that Paris has never
backed the extension of Suleiman's mandate. Last month, As
Safir newspaper quoted well-informed diplomatic sources as
saying that Suleiman prefers to renew his mandate rather
than extend it.
The sources quoted Suleiman as telling his French
counterpart Francois Hollande in September that he rejects
the extension of his term, even for a day. Hollande hinted
to his Lebanese counterpart that he should seek an
extension, they said. The French official stressed to al-Hayat
that France would neither interfere in the election of the
president nor in the cabinet formation process. The Western
diplomatic sources also said that the permanent members of
the U.N. Security Council won't have a say in the name of
any presidential candidate.“This is a Lebanese concern,”
they said.
U.S. Defense Official Visits Lebanon, Voices Commitment to
Prevent Spillover of Syrian Crisis
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/..U.S. Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy Dr. Matthew
Spence paid a visit to Lebanon this week during which he
highlighted his country's commitment to Lebanon, said the
U.S. Embassy in a statement in Friday. He expressed the
United States' commitment to the “Lebanese army and
preventing spillover from the Syrian conflict into
Lebanon.”He underscored the strength of the U.S.-Lebanese
defense relationship and the United States’ support for
Lebanon in the context of regional developments. He also
discussed with officials U.S. support for the Lebanese army
through ongoing security cooperation programs. Spence held
talks during his trip with various political and military
leaders, including President Michel Suleiman, Army Commander
General Jean Qahwaji, and Army Chief of Staff Major General
Walid Salman. U.S. assistance to the Lebanese army and
Internal Security Forces, totaling more than $1 billion
since 2005, strengthens the capacity of Lebanon’s security
forces and supports their missions of securing Lebanon’s
borders and defending the sovereignty and independence of
the state.
Army Hands Over al-Majed's Body to Saudi Embassy
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/The corpse of Abdullah
Azzam Brigades chief Majed al-Majed was handed over on
Friday afternoon to the Saudi Embassy in Beirut, ahead of
its repatriation to the kingdom. “At 3:20 p.m., and
following the authorization of the relevant judicial
authority, the army's Medical Services handed over Majed al-Majed's
body to a delegation from the Saudi embassy in Lebanon at
the entrance of the Central Military Hospital,” a Lebanese
army statement said. The army noted that the step happened
“after the completion of the necessary medical and legal
measures.”
Later on Friday, state-run National News Agency said al-Majed's
body arrived at the Beirut Rafik Hariri International
Airport amid “very strict security measures.”The corpse was
expected to be flown to Riyadh at 7:00 p.m. aboard a Saudi
Airlines plane, NNA said. “As part of the security measures,
photojournalists and reporters were not allowed to be
present near the body and the coffin was immediately
transported to the plane,” the agency added. Earlier on
Friday, acting General Prosecutor Judge Samir Hammoud had
agreed to hand over al-Majed's corpse to the Saudi Embassy
in Beirut, according to NNA. The corpse will be buried in
Saudi Arabia at the request of al-Majed's family. Hammoud
announced on Thursday that the report of the forensic panel
confirmed that Majed had died of illness. "The panel's
report confirmed the first conclusion reached by the
forensic doctor,” he said. The acting general prosecutor had
received on Tuesday a request from the Saudi embassy, saying
the brother of the al-Qaida-linked group leader wanted to
repatriate his body. Al-Majed, a Saudi national, died in
Lebanon on Saturday while undergoing treatment at the
Central Military Hospital after his health deteriorated, the
army said in a communique. He is accused of being behind the
suicide bombing that targeted the Iranian embassy in Beirut
on November 19, 2013, and he was detained in December of the
same year and had been held at a secret location. He was
also wanted by Saudi Arabia on terrorism charges.
Three Soldiers Wounded in Clash between Army, Gunmen in
Tripoli
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/A clash broke out on
Friday between the army and gunmen in the neighborhood of
Bab al-Tabbaneh in the northern city of Tripoli. "At 12:00
p.m., gunmen fired an Energa-type rocket and gunshots at an
army military vehicle in the Tripoli area of al-Mallouleh,
which left three soldiers lightly injured," an army
statement said. "Army forces returned fire and are still
pursuing the armed men to arrest them and refer them to the
relevant judicial authorities," it added. Media reports said
earlier the fighting broke out when the gunmen fired the
Energa at the vehicle near al-Rahman Mosque in Bab al-Tabbaneh.
The army had approached the gunmen to prohibit them from
carrying weapons near the mosque, reported the National News
Agency. The gunmen retaliated by attacking the army. MTV
later identified the wounded as Rashed Karam, Nasser al-Izz,
and Ramez Allo. The army had intensified in recent months
its presence around places of worship throughout Lebanon,
especially in light of twin bombings that targeted the
al-Salam and Taqwa mosques in Tripoli in August.
Berri Sticks to
Rotation of Portfolios but Says Policy Statement Should be
Left Out of Consultations
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/Speaker
Nabih Berri has backed the rotation of all portfolios in the
new government but said discussions on the policy statement
should be left until after the formation of the government.
In remarks to several local dailies published on Friday,
Berri reiterated his support for the 8-8-8 formula and the
rotation of portfolios in all ministries “without any
exception.” But the speaker said the policy statement, which
is a major point of contention between the March 8 and 14
alliances, should be left out of the current negotiations to
form the cabinet. “I agree with President Michel Suleiman on
the postponement of a deal on the policy statement although
this does not mean it would not cause a problem,” he said.
Al-Mustaqbal MP Nuhad al-Mashnouq has said that the March 14
camp has set several conditions to its approval of the 8-8-8
formula, among them is the adoption of the Baabda
Declaration in the policy statement and giving up the
army-people-resistance equation. Such a condition is likely
not to be approved by March 8. Al-Mashnouq said that March
14 had several others questions that lied on the shape of
the government, rotation of all ministerial portfolios, and
the right of Suleiman and Prime Minister-designate Tammam
Salam for veto to reject any name proposed. But Berri said
in his remarks published on Friday that “there are no
answers and questions.” “There is dialogue between the
different parties.”He reiterated his rejection to isolate
any side. Suleiman does not accept the isolation of
Hizbullah or any other political party, the speaker said.
Berri expressed fears over the security situation, which he
said should speed up the government formation process. “We
should put an end to the political immorality, which is
blowing up the security situation,” he said.
Amin Gemayel Denies Direct Contacts
with March 8, Says Coordination Ongoing with March 14
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/Phalange
Party leader Amin Gemayel stressed on Friday that contacts
are ongoing with the March 14 allies and President Michel
Suleiman regarding the cabinet formation process. “Our
stance from any government lineup will be encompassing and
in coordination with the March 14 alliance to reach the
required goals,” Gemayel said in comments published in An
Nahar newspaper. He denied media reports saying that the
March 8 coalition discussed with the Phalange party the
8-8-8 cabinet lineup, saying: “The March 8 alliance didn't
contact us nor discuss the matter with us.” However, Gemayel
pointed out that “indirect contacts are ongoing with the
political foes.” Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam was
appointed in April but has so far been unable to put
together a government over the conditions and counter
conditions set by the rivals parties as fears mount that the
differences between the March 8 and 14 camps would lead to a
vacuum the presidential post. The 8-8-8 government lineup
awaits that March 14 approval, while al-Mustaqbal
parliamentary bloc has set a series of questions regarding
the cabinet's ministerial statement, the rotation of
portfolios and the veto power. The 8-8-8 formula divides
ministers equally between the centrists, March 14 and 8
alliances, in which each get eight ministers with “decisive
ministers” for the March 14 and 8 coalitions. Asked about
the articles that the Phalange party rejects to include in
any ministerial statement, Gemayel said that his “party
doesn't care about the shape of the government but is
interested in its ministerial statement and its ability to
implement it.” “We're concerned with achieving the nation's
higher interest,” he added.
Jumblat Expresses
Hope that Cabinet Would See Light Soon
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/Progressive Socialist
Party leader MP Walid Jumblat expressed hope on Friday that
the political foes would reach an agreement over the cabinet
formation process. “I am seeking to bridge the gap between
the political foes,” Jumblat said in comments published in
As Safir newspaper. He stressed the importance of “forming a
new cabinet as soon as possible,” rejecting to tackle the
cabinet ministerial statement. Prime Minister-designate
Tammam Salam was appointed in April but has so far been
unable to put together a government over the conditions and
counter conditions set by the rivals parties as fears mount
that the differences between the March 8 and 14 camps would
lead to a vacuum the presidential post. The 8-8-8 government
lineup awaits that March 14 approval, while al-Mustaqbal
parliamentary bloc has set a series of questions regarding
the cabinet's ministerial statement, the rotation of
portfolios and the veto power. The 8-8-8 formula divides
ministers equally between the centrists, March 14 and 8
alliances, in which each get eight ministers with “decisive
ministers” for the March 14 and 8 coalitions.
FPM Voices
Optimism Regarding Cabinet Formation, Says Party
Facilitating Matter
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/The Free Patriotic
Movement expressed on Friday optimism concerning the cabinet
formation process, stressing that the party aims at
facilitating the matter in an attempt to safeguard the
country. “We are completely positive regarding the cabinet
lineup and our hand is reaching out to everyone in order to
include everyone in the new government and confront the
dangers facing Lebanon,” Caretaker Energy Minister Jebran
Bassil said in comments published in As Safir newspaper.
Asked about demands by the March 14 to include the rotation
of all portfolios in the new government, Bassil said that
the “priority is to form a new cabinet.”The 8-8-8 government
lineup awaits that March 14 approval, while al-Mustaqbal
parliamentary bloc has set a series of questions regarding
the cabinet's ministerial statement, the rotation of
portfolios and the veto power.The 8-8-8 formula divides
ministers equally between the centrists, March 14 and 8
alliances, in which each get eight ministers with “decisive
ministers” for the March 14 and 8 coalitions. “We need to
answer the following question before anything else, do we
want to cooperate to save the country or adopt the policy of
excluding others,” Bassil wondered. For his part, FPM leader
MP Michel Aoun's Change and Reform bloc's secretary MP
Ibrahim Kanaan told al-Joumhouria newspaper that there is a
breakthrough concerning the cabinet formation process.
“Negotiations are ongoing,” Kanaan told the newspaper. He
urged al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc to “give its approval
regarding the all-embracing government before discussing the
details.” The lawmaker rejected reports saying that the FPM
is excluded from cabinet formation discussions, saying: “Our
stance is clear, we are trying to facilitate the
matter.”Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam was appointed
in April but has so far been unable to put together a
government over the conditions and counter conditions set by
the rivals parties as fears mount that the differences
between the March 8 and 14 camps would lead to a vacuum the
presidential post.
Social Affairs Ministry: Child Sex Abuse Victim Undergoing
Checkups, Evaluation
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/A Syrian child, who has
been sexually assaulted by allegedly a man suffering from
AIDS in the South, is undergoing medical checkups and
psychiatric evaluation, the Social Affairs Ministry said on
Friday. “The Syrian child who has been the victim of a
monstrous sexual assault in the area of Marjeyoun has been
placed under the care of the UNHCR since Tuesday and is
undergoing medical checkups and psychiatric follow-up,” the
ministry said. Caretaker Health Minister Ali Hassan Khalil
ordered the Marjeyoun state hospital to serve the victim and
his family after a telephone call he received from caretaker
Social Affairs Minister Wael Abou Faour, it said. The Social
Affairs Ministry stated that it has sent a psychiatric and
social support team to assess the condition of the child and
his family. Abou Faour has also contacted the involved
security and judicial agencies, which have not yet confirmed
that the suspect was HIV positive, the statement said. The
ministry did not state the age of the child or the
circumstances of the assault. But An Nahar said a day
earlier that the four-year-old refugee was assaulted by a
Syrian worker who lives near the victim's family and is
employed by the boy's father.
Syrian Child
Sexually Assaulted by HIV-Positive Man in Marjeyoun
Naharnet Newsdesk 09 January 2014/A Syrian
child was sexually assaulted in the southern town of
Marjeyoun, and medical examination revealed that his
attacker is HIV-positive. "A four-year-old refugee was
sexually assaulted by a Syrian worker that lives nearby the
victim's family and who is an employee working for the boy's
father,” An Nahar daily reported on Thursday. An Nahar said
the assaulter was arrested and was medically examined. The
medical report revealed, however, that the man is
HIV-positive. The newspaper detailed on the incident: “A
Lebanese employer noticed a laborer crying at work and after
asking about the reasons, he was told that another Syrian
employee had sexually assaulted his son.”Security bodies
were informed about the incident and arrested the attacker.
A forensic doctor was called for examining the child and the
report confirmed that a sexual assault did take place. The
examination also revealed that the assaulter is
HIV-positive. The newspaper noted that the forensic doctor
was paid for examining the child and the attacker, while the
Ministry of Social Affairs and Non-Governmental
Organizations that are dedicated to children's well-being,
and others that care for refugees' situation did not act on
the matter.
Pregnant Woman
'Brutally Attacked' by Relatives
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/A pregnant woman was
beaten by her husband, her brother-in-law and mother-in-law
overnight on Thursday for allegedly losing the water bill.
Media reports said on Friday that Fatima al-Nashar might
lose her baby after her husband Sultan Kas-ha, his brother
Othman and their mother Naeima brutally hit her. Fatima was
transferred to the Intensive Care Unit at the Islamic
hospital in Tripoli. The Lebanese state doesn't include any
article concerning domestic violence despite the fact that
it covers other forms of physical abuse. In November, KAFA
(enough) Violence and Exploitation recently launched in
partnership with the Internal Security Forces a campaign
under the title, “We have a mission, If you're threatened,
do not hesitate to call 112”, in an attempt to protect women
subjected to domestic violence. According to a statement by
the NGO the campaign aims at “rebuilding trust between women
victims of violence and the ISF, and informing the public of
the ISF’s ongoing preparations to provide women with the
protection they need.”
Exclusive - Iran,
Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal
By Jonathan Saul and Parisa Hafezi
LONDON/ANKARA (Reuters) - Iran and Russia are negotiating an
oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month that would let
Iran lift oil exports substantially, in defiance of Western
sanctions that helped force Tehran to agree a preliminary
deal to end its nuclear programme. Russian and Iranian
sources close to the barter negotiations said final details
were in discussion for a deal that would see Moscow buy up
to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for
Russian equipment and goods. "Good progress is being made at
the moment with strong chances of success," said a Russian
source. "We are discussing the details and the date of
signing a deal depends on those details." The Kremlin
declined comment. "Our desire is to sign the deal as soon as
possible," said a senior Iranian official, who declined to
be named. "Our officials are discussing the matter with the
Russians and hopefully it will be inked soon, regardless of
whether we can reach a (nuclear) agreement in Geneva." It is
not clear whether the deal would be implemented before the
nuclear agreement, outlined in Geneva in November between
Iran and six world powers, is finalised. Nor is it clear how
Moscow will justify to other powers a barter deal that could
jeopardise the nuclear negotiations by easing the economic
pressure on Tehran. Russia is one of the countries involved
in the nuclear talks but, unlike the United States and the
European Union, has not imposed sanctions on Iran. Technical
nuclear talks between Iran and the European Union started on
Thursday. The November deal was designed to halt Iran's
nuclear advances for six months to buy time for a final
settlement by May. U.S. and European sanctions have cut
Iran's oil exports by more than half over the past 18 months
to about one million barrels a day. Russia has no sanctions
on Iran. Russian purchases of 500,000 bpd of Iranian crude
would lift Iran's oil exports by 50 percent and provide a
major boost to its struggling economy. At current oil prices
near $100 a barrel Iran would earn about an additional $1.5
billion a month. "Iran has to find a way to accommodate more
exports: this is the reason behind this," an Iranian
official said. "Both sides should rush for it. Russia will
be able to guarantee a large amount of trade with its
neighbour and Iran will be able to overcome its export
difficulties." No details were available about the equipment
and goods on offer from Russia. Given Russia is a major oil
exporter, the Iranian oil would likely be exported from Iran
on Russia's account, with Russian goods and equipment
bartered in exchange. Most Iranian oil goes to Asia. Iran's
biggest oil buyer is China, importing about 420,000 bpd in
2013. Unlike Iran's other oil buyers, China has not cut
purchases much, despite efforts from the United States.
Other major Asian buyers of Iranian oil including Japan,
South Korea and India have cut imports sharply under
pressure from Washington. Turkey and South Africa also have
reduced or eliminated imports.
(Editing Richard Mably and Giles Elgood)
Assad's forces kill dozens of rebels in
Homs city
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar
al-Assad killed dozens of rebel fighters who tried to break
an army siege of the central city of Homs, state media and a
monitoring group said.
SANA news agency quoted a military source as saying army
units "confronted armed terrorist groups" trying to get into
the Khaldiya neighborhood north of the besieged rebel area
in the Old City in the heart of Homs this week.
Thirty-seven rebels were killed by the army, SANA said,
without giving a figure for losses among Assad's forces.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 45
rebels were surrounded and killed as they left the old city
on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors the violence
in Syria through a network of military and medical sources,
said it had no information on government losses.
Assad's forces have surrounded rebels for more than a year
in Homs, a center of the uprising against Assad in 2011
which turned into an armed uprising and civil war after the
Syrian leader's forces cracked down on protesters.
They have also pushed back rebel forces from nearby rural
areas which had formed part of their supply lines from
neighboring Lebanon and allowed the rebels to challenge
control of the main highway linking Damascus to Homs, the
Mediterranean coast and the north of the country.
Assad has lost control of large areas of northern and
eastern Syria, but deadly infighting among rebel forces has
stalled their military campaign to overthrow him.
Hundreds of rebels have been killed in a week of fighting by
an array of Islamist and more moderate fighters against an
al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, the Islamic State in Iraq and
the Levant (ISIL).The fighting comes less than a fortnight before planned
peace talks in Switzerland aimed at finding a political
solution to almost three years of conflict, which the
Observatory says has killed 130,000 people, and agreeing a
transitional body to govern Syria. (Reporting by Dominic
Evans, editing by Elizabeth Piper)
As Obama dithers, Egypt ramps up its nuclear options
By: Raymond Stock/Fox News
http://www.meforum.org/3716/egypt-nuclear-program
After the fatally-flawed interim deal signed by the P5+1 in Geneva November 24
over Iran's nuclear program, America's slighted ally Egypt is now possibly
pursuing its own nuclear option, amid fears of an atomic arms race between
Tehran and its regional Sunni rivals in Cairo, Riyadh and beyond.
And no one seems to be paying attention.
Egypt's traditionally close relations with the U.S. have been severely strained
since Minister of Defense General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi ousted the
narrowly-elected President Mohamed Morsi after more than thirty million marched
against him and the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), to which he belongs.
To the outrage of most Egyptians, the U.S. cut roughly a third in cash and
equipment of its annual $1.6 billion of mainly military aid to Cairo in early
October in punishment for the new regime's crackdown on the MB, which demands
the return of Morsi -- and which Egypt now correctly classifies as a terrorist
organization.
Yet the White House had boosted aid to Egypt even as Morsi grew more and more
repressive, imposing his Islamist agenda on the country.
On October 6, Egypt's interim president, Adly Mansour, announced at the annual
commemoration of Egypt's successful 1973 surprise attack on the Israelis across
the Suez Canal that construction of a 1,000 MW light-water reactor to generate
electricity at El-Debaa, 120 kilometers west of Alexandria -- the first of four
planned in the country -- would go ahead.
Egypt's 60-year-old nuclear program is already the third largest in the region,
after those of Israel and Iran.
On November 26, the respected Middle East news site Al-Monitor reported that
Egypt expects to generate $4 billion in grants from interested international
companies to finance the project.
Morsi, whom al-Sisi appointed Mansour to replace pending new elections next
year, had earlier approved a similar plan, even obtaining a pledge of Russian
"research assistance" for Egypt's nuclear expansion, as well as help in
exploiting the nation's previously unknown major deposits of uranium.
In mid-November, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister
Sergei Shoygu visited Egypt, where they negotiated a deal through which Egypt
will buy $2 billion worth of Russian military equipment.
"We want to give a new impetus to our relations and return them to the same high
level that used to exist with the Soviet Union"—i.e., during the Cold
War--Egypt's Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmi is quoted as saying.
On November 11, the destroyer Varyag docked with an official welcome at
Alexandria, the first Russian warship to visit one of Egypt's ports in decades.
It is not known if the Russians and their hosts also discussed Egypt's nuclear
program in those talks.
Morsi -- whom the Iranians too had offered to help develop his nuclear program,
and with whom he worked to have closer ties after three decades of frozen
relations--was most likely interested in acquiring nuclear weapons, for which
the MB has called since 2006.
That idea is still wildly popular in Egypt, even if the MB no longer is.
Yet unlike Iran, a major oil exporter, Egypt really does have an urgent,
legitimate need to develop new sources of energy.
Rolling brownouts and blackouts have been increasingly common, especially in
post-Mubarak Egypt.
But as al-Sisi and Obama drift further apart, there are good reasons to be
aware, if not wary, of Egypt's push for nuclear power.
Egypt's nuclear program, which began in 1954, features two research reactors and
a hot-cell laboratory, all located at Inshas in the Delta.
From the reactors' spent fuel rods, the hot-cell laboratory reportedly extracts
at least six kilograms of plutonium -- enough for one nuclear bomb -- per year.
During the rule of Hosni Mubarak -- overthrown in February 2011 in a U.S.-backed
coup propelled by public protests--the International Agency for Atomic Energy (IAEA)
in 2004 opened an investigation into irradiation experiments and the unreported
import of nuclear materials, and in 2007 and 2008 found traces of
Highly-Enriched Uranium (HEU), all at Inshas.
After each, the IAEA issued brief, bland reports, but the last case is
apparently still open, while similar traces of HEU found in facilities in Iran
provided the first clue that Pakistan had been aiding Tehran's own drive for the
bomb. Mubarak also called for a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) in
the Middle East--now a movement, co-led by Iran, obviously aimed at freeing
Israel of its most effective last-ditch defenses.
Yet, although Egypt signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968,
it has refused to sign the NPT's Additional Protocol, which permits spot
inspections, as well as treaties banning the possession of chemical and
biological weapons.
Al-Sisi shares Mubarak's antipathy for the ayatollahs, and rightly fears their
growing rapprochement with a gullible U.S. eager to create a new alignment in
the Middle East, at the expense of traditional Sunni allies.
That means not only Egypt but Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
who ultimately felt threatened by the MB in Egypt (the UAE is now prosecuting
about thirty MB members accused of plotting subversion), which the Obama
administration continues to stand by instead, despite the group's anti-Western
ideology and actions.
There is now enormous support on the street for Egypt to shift its alliance away
from the U.S., particularly toward Russia, especially after President Vladimir
Putin's masterful diplomatic deflection of America's pusillanimous threat of a
military strike against Moscow's Syrian client last fall.
The rift is not yet complete- -- though there still is no clear sign that the
Obama administration will either fully accept the loss of Morsi, or actually
stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them.
Whatever Iran chooses to do when it finally gets the bomb, its very proximity to
having these ultimate weapons could impel its neighbors to seek their own
deterrent.
Sadly, no deterrent nor strategy of containment can control the dynamics of this
most unstable region should Iran achieve its ultimate nuclear ambitions.
And a nuclear arms race between the Sunni states and Iran -- also, in the end,
aimed at Israel -- would be even worse.
**Raymond Stock, a Shillman-Ginsburg Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum and
a former Assistant Professor of Arabic and Middle East Studies at Drew
University, spent twenty years in Egypt, and was deported by the Mubarak regime
in 2010.
500 Killed in Syria Rebel-Jihadist Fighting
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 January 2014/Nearly 500 people, among them at least 85
civilians, have been killed in a week of fighting pitting Syrian rebels against
jihadists in the north of the strife-torn country. The fighting raged as Western
governments that back the revolt against President Bashar Assad prepared to
intensify pressure on the opposition to participate in peace talks with the
regime planned for later this month.
A new front opened last Friday in Syria's nearly three-year-old war, when
powerful massive rebel groups combined to attack bases and checkpoints of the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
While the jihadists were initially welcomed by other rebels, allegations of
brutal abuses against civilians as well as rival opposition fighters sparked a
backlash, and even accusations that they were serving the interests of the
regime. "We have documented the killing of 482 people in the fighting -- 85
civilians, 240 members of the rebel brigades and 157 members of ISIL," said
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman.
Among the civilians and rebels killed were 42 hostages who were executed in
Aleppo by ISIL. Rebels also executed 47 ISIL members, mainly in Idlib province
in northwestern Syria, Abdel Rahman said.
"The rest of the deaths came during the fighting. It is likely dozens more
people have lost their lives, but it is impossible to accurately document all
the killings," he added. He called for "crimes being committed in Syria to be
brought before an international court." Jihadist-rebel fighting has raged mainly
in Aleppo, Idlib and Raqa provinces. On Friday, rebels continued to advance in
much of Aleppo and Idlib, where ISIL's presence was relatively weak, while the
jihadists had the upper hand in Raqa, which has been under their control for
several months. ISIL has its roots in Al-Qaida in Iraq, and first appeared in
the Syrian conflict in spring last year. Civilians have suffered massively as a
result of the latest fighting, activists say. "In Aleppo city, people are
trapped in their houses, unable to fetch medicine or food for fear they will get
shot by snipers if they go outside," said anti-regime activist Alaaeddine. "In
Raqa, the situation is even worse," he added. Despite the "numerical advantage"
enjoyed by Syria's rebels, "ISIL will not be forced out of Syria altogether,"
according to analyst Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha
Center. "It will maintain operations, but likely in a far more independent
manner, and sometimes in opposition to other rebel groups."
ISIL has already carried out several deadly car bombings against rival rebel
groups in recent days, particularly in Aleppo and Idlib. Protesters meanwhile
took to the streets Friday, as they have every week since the start of the
revolt in March 2011, this time chanting slogans against both Assad and ISIL. In
the northern town of Binnish, protesters chanted: "Syria is free, free! ISIL,
get out!" They also held up posters that read: "Bashar Assad is our main enemy."
Fierce cross-country fighting pitting rebels against both ISIL jihadists and
Assad loyalists came as backers of Syria's opposition upped the pressure on
dissidents to attend peace talks slated for January 22.
Speaking to AFP Thursday, veteran opponent and National Coalition member Samir
Nashar said: "There are clear signs indicating the Coalition must go to Geneva."
The Coalition will meet on January 17 to decide whether to participate in the
so-called Geneva 2 process. But Syria's main rebel groups have warned opponents
against attending the talks and against any negotiation with Assad's regime. And
the main bloc within the Coalition -- the Syrian National Council -- has said it
will withdraw from the group if its general assembly decides to attend the peace
meeting. The pressure from Western governments to join the talks increased as
the so-called Friends of Syria prepared for a Sunday meeting in Paris to discuss
Syria's transition. The opposition Coalition meanwhile tried to present itself
as the international community's "partner" against terrorism. "The Coalition
calls upon the Friends of Syria group to recognize the important role played by
the... (rebel) Free Syrian Army in countering the global threat posed by
Al-Qaida, and the Assad regime's role in supporting extremism," it said.
Syria's civil war has killed more than 130,000 people, and forced millions more
to flee their homes.
Source/Agence France Presse.
ISIS fights back against Syria rebel assault
January 10, 2014/Daily Star/ANKARA: Iran's talks with the European Union have
ended with an agreement over outstanding issues about the practical details of
implementing a nuclear agreement, Iranian state television reported on Friday.
But the implementation of the deal reached in Geneva in November will take place
only after consultations between the negotiating delegations and their
governments. The six major powers involved in the talks with Iran were on Friday
represented by the European Union, it said. "All the outstanding political and
technical issues were resolved but the final decision will be taken by the
respective capitals," said Iran's deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, after
two days of talks with the EU's Helga Schmid in Geneva. A European Union
spokesman said his latest information was that the talks were still going on.
The Geneva deal was designed to halt Iran's nuclear advances for six months to
buy time for negotiations on a final settlement. Under the deal, Iran will
curb its atomic activities in return for some easing of the international
sanctions that have battered the oil producer's economy. Iran says its nuclear
work is entirely peaceful but the West suspects it is aimed at acquiring a
nuclear bomb capability
U.S. nearing irrelevance
January 10, 2014/The Daily Star
The leaked revelations from Robert Gates’ upcoming memoir come at a particularly
awkward time for President Barack Obama, with his administration’s foreign
policy decisions, or indecisions, being criticized from every side.
While Afghanistan and Iraq were both messes which Obama’s predecessors got the
country into, former Pentagon chief Gates, who served under six presidents,
chastised the Democrat leader for dithering on troop surges and overall
strategy. Obama suffered throughout 2013 for clumsy and ill-thought-out policy
wavering, especially in regard to the Middle East and Islamic world. And the
ramifications of over a decade of bad U.S. decisions are still being acutely
felt. Fighting between U.S.-brokered Iraqi security forces, now largely propped
up by Iran, and Al-Qaeda factions continues in the west of Iraq, where the
violence cannot be divorced from what is happening in the north of Syria. And
certainly, the effects of this Iraqi struggle will be felt much further afield
than just its national borders: It will likely have effects across the region.
And this current battle merely comes on top of daily bombings which claimed over
8,000 lives in 2013 alone, the deadliest year since 2008.
And in Afghanistan, 72 suspected Taliban fighters Thursday were released from
jail. In a nation where such militants routinely attack NATO troops and
civilians alike, U.S. objections did little to dissuade Karzai’s government from
the move. If 2014 is going to look up for Obama in any way, he would do well to
attempt to repair his ever weakening relationships with his once major allies in
the region: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and the Palestinians. Without such
reparations, the U.S. position in the Middle East might become irrelevant.
Winning the Peace by Failing in Geneva
By Jeremy Shapiro and Samuel Charap/Foreign Affairs
Later this month, the United States, Russia, key regional states, and other
members of the international community will attend the Geneva II peace
conference. In Washington, the debate rages on between the skeptics, who dismiss
the conference as a hopeless endeavor, and the optimists, who see it as a
genuine peace process that could resolve the Syrian crisis. Both sides are
missing the point.
It is hard to dispute the skeptics’ argument that the time is not right for a
comprehensive agreement between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the rebels
fighting his regime. Neither party is ready to give up on victory, and both
sides’ regional sponsors continue to support, fund, and arm them. But peace is
not the right benchmark by which to judge Geneva II. Historically, ending civil
wars has involved long and difficult negotiations that, at best, very gradually
create the conditions for lasting peace.
Yes, Geneva II will likely fail to produce a settlement to the Syrian conflict.
But the United States should take steps to ensure it fails in a way that
furthers peace. At the same time, the United States and Russia can improve the
prospects for peace by establishing a round of negotiations among the regional
sponsors of the warring Syrian parties.
Moscow has signaled in several ways that its policy is not driven by concern
about Assad’s place in Syria’s future.
RUSSIAN ROULETTE
Rather than an opportunity to achieve peace, Geneva II is an occasion to drive a
wedge between Moscow and Assad and thus promote greater cooperation between the
United States and Russia on the Syrian conflict. Such cooperation is key to both
the alleviation of the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria and to a negotiated end
to the war. At the talks then, the U.S. goal should be to create the conditions
whereby Assad openly rejects a deal that all other parties, including Russia,
endorse.
Achieving such an outcome will be exceptionally difficult. But it need not be
impossible, as long as the United States understands Russian objectives. The
Russian approach to Geneva is widely viewed in Washington as an attempt to
maintain the status quo, rather than to spark a real transition. But that
interpretation is off the mark.
In fact, Russia is serious about Geneva II, even if it has a very different
perspective on what it might achieve there. For Russia, the meeting is a vehicle
to facilitate a political settlement among Syrians, not an opportunity for
outside actors to negotiate the end of the Assad regime. Moscow insisted that
this be a guiding principle in the Geneva communiqué, the July 2012 document
that governs Geneva II, and its policy and actions haven’t changed since. Above
all else, Moscow wants to avoid legitimizing a U.S.-led forced removal of a
sitting government or an attempt to pick winners in an internal conflict. Either
development, Russia believes, would set an extremely dangerous precedent -- both
for the region and, potentially, for itself.
The September U.S.-Russia deal on Syria’s chemical weapons proves the point.
Moscow agreed to an arrangement that deprives Assad of his chemical weapons,
which was a major concession considering that it had, just weeks before,
rejected far less ambitious proposals. The reason for the turnaround? Russia
believed that the United States was on the verge of military strikes, and
recognized that the chemical weapons agreement could prevent that. As a nice
bonus, it also got to advance one of the few global public goods that Russia
cares about: nonproliferation of WMD, particularly to extremist groups.
Additionally, Moscow has signaled in several ways that its policy is not driven
by concern about Assad’s place in Syria’s future. Senior officials have said as
much, and Russia voted in favor of UN Security Council Resolutions 2042 and
2118, both of which called for a “political transition” in Syria. By supporting
the Geneva communiqué, which requires that the opposition sign off on the
composition of a future Syrian leadership, Moscow has already implicitly
endorsed a transition that does not include Assad himself.
If Russia’s actions were driven by a desire to keep Assad in power at all costs,
it would be giving the regime boatloads of mortars, artillery, and tanks, and
sending uniformed military advisers (all of which Iran is in fact doing).
Instead, its arms sales are largely confined to sophisticated air-defense
systems, which are useless against the rebels. The terms of these deals are
commercial -- cash on delivery -- rather than military assistance.
If the United States recognizes that Russia’s objectives are about the process,
not the outcomes of a settlement, and acts that way, the negotiations could
produce closer U.S.-Russia cooperation on Syria. Washington needs to let the
talks unfold in a way that demonstrates to Moscow that Assad and his cronies --
rather than the opposition, U.S. policy, or other states in the region -- are
the main obstacle to peace and stability.
That might not be too difficult to manage. Assad seems to have no intention of
negotiating a deal or countenancing any kind of power-sharing. But the Kremlin
has been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Until Assad demonstrates
his bad faith by publicly rejecting a settlement that Russia accepts, Moscow
will continue to regard him as a part of the solution, not the source of the
problem.
There is some precedent for such a change in Russian policy. In 2009, Tehran
publicly rejected a Russian offer to store Iran’s enriched uranium -- a deal
that Iran had accepted days earlier. Angered by Iran’s betrayal, Russia
supported tough new UN sanctions against Iran in June 2010.
If talks fail because Assad rejects a reasonable deal that all the other parties
endorse, Moscow will begin to see that its desire for both stability in the
region and avoiding coercive regime change requires working more closely with
the United States.
Similarly, if Geneva II fails because Assad rejects a reasonable deal that all
the other parties endorse, Moscow will begin to see that its desire for both
stability in the region and avoiding coercive regime change requires working
more closely with the United States. It might then pressure Assad to accept a
transition. It could also work with the United States and the rest of the UN
Security Council to address the humanitarian situation in Syria, particularly by
seeking approval for UN agencies to enter Syria through border crossings not
controlled by Damascus, which could bring desperately needed help to hundreds of
thousands of people in opposition-held areas.
SIDETRACKING
Regardless of what happens at Geneva II, Washington should be developing a
parallel, regional track for peace in Syria. Together, the United States and
Russia should push for negotiations that convene the regional supporters of the
opposition and the regime, without the Syrian parties present. This would be a
half-step back from the face-to-face talks between the opposition and the regime
envisioned at Geneva II. We call it Geneva 1.5.
A regional track is needed because the Syrian civil war has become a proxy war
-- principally between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but with important roles played by
Qatar, Turkey, and Iraq. (The United States and Russia are also involved in this
proxy war, albeit to a lesser extent than the regional actors.) The record on
resolving such proxy wars is clear. Until the main external supporters reach
some sort of accommodation, they will continue to fund, arm, and otherwise give
their proxies hope of victory. This unhappy dynamic played out frequently during
the Cold War, lasting decades in Angola, Guatemala, and Vietnam.
Thus far, no international mediation efforts on Syria have explicitly sought to
address the role of regional actors and the conflicts among them. The first
Geneva meeting excluded Iran and Saudi Arabia, two key players, and the
meeting’s resulting communiqué focused on the principles of civil war resolution
rather than on the particulars of this conflict. The purpose of a Geneva 1.5
conference would be to facilitate eventual political resolution within Syria by
cutting off the activity of regional actors that fuels the conflict.
Such negotiations will not be easy. The Syrian civil war is only one battlefield
in a much broader struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Bringing these two
archrivals to an accommodation on Syria will tax even U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry’s legendary perseverance. Both would have to be convinced that they
have little hope of realizing their maximalist goals. Then the United States and
Russian mediators would seek a formula that can accommodate their core interests
in Syria’s future and guarantee mutual restraint. That formula would not
determine who rules Syria, but it would enable the Syrian parties themselves to
negotiate without fear that outside actors would sabotage any agreement.
The regional players should be ready to come to grips with the fact that
outright victory is impossible. For Iran, the Syrian conflict is a black hole
for its already stretched capabilities. Its involvement in the conflict has
damaged its reputation in the Arab world, fueled sectarian violence elsewhere,
and led to an upswing in Sunni extremism in Syria. Tehran may therefore accept a
settlement that protects its most important interests in Syria: namely, ensuring
its connection with Hezbollah and Lebanon and preventing Damascus from being
controlled by a puppet regime of its regional rivals.
As for the Saudis, the extremism emanating from Syria could pose a threat to the
House of Saud itself. Further, their proxies in Syria are at best holding the
line as the Syrian regime continues to demonstrate its resilience. The Saudis
simply do not have the capacity to win a long proxy war against Iran in Syria.
They might, therefore, settle for a power-sharing arrangement that would give
them some influence with a Syrian transitional regime. Even that scenario would
represent a substantial improvement in Saudi Arabia’s standing in Syria prior to
the conflict.
A group of nations that included Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United
States did come together recently to discuss ways to provide humanitarian relief
to the many thousands of innocents facing starvation in Syria. And even that was
a major breakthrough. The United States and Russia could build on this momentum
to push for Geneva 1.5.
The United States and Russia are well positioned to lead Geneva 1.5 together --
regardless of how Geneva II goes. Both have a common interest in preventing
Islamist extremists from gaining more ground in Syria. And each has its own
strengths and regional connections. The United States can nudge Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, and Turkey into a more constructive role in the negotiations, and Russia
might be able to do the same with Iran.
Kerry recently hinted that the United States may consider allowing Iranian
involvement in Geneva II in some partial capacity, but full Iranian
participation in the talks remains conditioned on Tehran’s acceptance of the
principles of the Geneva communiqué. Washington would be better served by first
getting Iran to the Geneva 1.5 table, because an accommodation with its regional
adversaries, rather than engagement in an intra-Syrian political process, offers
the best chance of changing Iranian behavior in Syria.
It will not be easy. But accepting the current debate in Washington about Geneva
will essentially guarantee that U.S. efforts will accomplish little. One meeting
in late January is unlikely to bring peace to Syria. But with a dual-track
approach that positions Assad to block a settlement at Geneva II and involves
regional actors in a parallel Geneva 1.5 negotiation, the United States might
just be able to create momentum for peace in Syria.