LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 25/14
Bible Quotation for today/Go into
all the world and proclaim the good news to the whole creation.
Mark 16,15-18/Go into all the world and
proclaim the good news to the whole creation. The one who believes and is
baptized will be saved; but the one who does not believe will be condemned.
And these signs will accompany those who believe: by using my name they will
cast out demons; they will speak in new tongues; they will pick up snakes in
their hands, and if they drink any deadly thing, it will not hurt them; they
will lay their hands on the sick, and they will recover.’"
Pope Francis's Tweet For Tuesday
A simple lifestyle is good for us, helping us to better share with those in
need.
Pape François
Un style de vie sobre nous fait du bien et nous permet de mieux partager
avec celui qui est dans le besoin.
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources For April 24/14
For Christians, blessed are the dividers/By Michael Young/The Daily Star/April 24/14
An Iran deal is close, but we’re not there yet/By David Ignatius/The Daily Star/April 24/14
Whatever happened to deterrence/By: Eyad Abu Shakra/Ashaeq Al Awsat/April 24/14
Assad's new exit strategy: to lose at the elections//Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/ April 24/14
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources For April 24/14
Lebanese Related News
STL issues summons for the editors of Al-Akhbar newspaper and Al-Jadeed television
Kataeb to ask March 14 to nominate Gemayel
Rai calls for consensus president
Member of Nigerian 'Black Dollar Scam' Gang
Arrested in Lebanon
LF Bloc Thanks MPs over 'Precious Trust' Placed in
Geagea
U.S.-led Negotiations between Israel, Lebanon over EEZ Reach Deadlock
March 14 Alliance Mulling Another Candidate for Presidency
Future MP blasts Aoun as non-consensual candidate
Tashnaq youth demonstrate in front of Turkish embassy
Henri Helou refuses to pull out of the presidential race
Qahwaji from Tripoli: Security Plan to Proceed Until Completion
Car Theft Gang Mediators Arrested in Bekaa
10 Syrians Held Trying to Enter Lebanon with Fake IDs
Lebanon: Exercise in democracy
U.N. urges Lebanon to complete election on time
Russia to lend a hand to Lebanese Army: Lavrov
Fatah-Hamas unity deal enrages Israel
Rivals brace for presidential horse trading
Miscellaneous Reports And News
Syria Chemical Handover Nearly Complete
Syria air raid kills 27 as new candidates announced
Israel halts peace talks after Palestinian unity deal
Russia starts border army drill after Ukraine attacks rebels
Russian army ordered to advance toward Ukraine border. Moscow questions May election’s legitimacy
UN rights monitor criticises Bahrain over Shiite
expulsion
US protests Iran's election to UN NGO committee
-
UN Security Council threatens sanctions over S. Sudan violence
STL issues summons for the editors of
Al-Akhbar newspaper and Al-Jadeed television
April 24, 2014/The Daily Star
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Apr-24/254261-stl-issues-summons-for-top-lebanese-editors.ashx#axzz2zk7xmUOg
BEIRUT: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon issued Thursday summons for the editors
of Al-Akhbar newspaper and Al-Jadeed television, accusing them of contempt and
obstructing justice by publishing the names of alleged witnesses. Karma
Mohamed Tahsin al-Khayat from Al-Jadeed as well as the station’s parent company
NEW TV S.A.L. have been summoned “to appear before the STL on two counts of
contempt and obstruction of justice,” the U.N.-backed tribunal said in a
statement. Ibrahim Mohammad Al-Amin from Al Akhbar and the newspaper’s
parent company Akhbar Beirut S.A.L. have also been summoned for similar charges.
The court accuses Al-Jadeed of “knowingly and willfully interfering with the
administration of justice by broadcasting and/or publishing information on
purported confidential witnesses.”It also charges the television station with
failing to remove information on the alleged confidential witnesses from Al-Jadeed
TV’s website and Al-Jadeed TV’s YouTube channel. Al-Akhbar and Amin are charged
with “knowingly and willfully interfering with the administration of justice by
publishing information on purported confidential witnesses in the Ayyash et al.
case.” Khayyat and Amin may appear in person or via video link during a court
hearing scheduled for May 13. The two are required by international law to
participate in the hearing otherwise STL could issue warrants against them.
In January, Al-Akhbar which has been a staunch critic of the court and the
tribunal's process, published the names, photos and information of what it
described as witnesses of the prosecution in the international court case over
the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The information, which
the newspaper said were leaks from within the tribunal, included full names,
ages, and occupations for those listed. Al-Jadeed also broadcast the same
information.
The Tribunal was established in 2007 to investigate the 2005 assassination of
former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It has so far charged five Hezbollah members
of being involved in the killing but the court which held trials earlier this
year is trying the suspects in absentia. Hezbollah has denied the allegations.
Al-Jadeed denied the allegations, saying the television station had only sought
to tell the truth.
“Today, the court is the one demeaning the media and trying to make the media
its own tool,” the anchorman of Al-Jadeed said in the station’s editorial
opening of the nightly news hour.
Questioning the reasons behind the court’s decisions to refrain from charging
foreign newspapers which leaked STL news to the public, Al-Jadeed said: “We seek
the truth. We are the first photo and the first word and such contempt [as
charged by STL] was not made by us.” STL Judge David Baragwanath wrote in his
decision to summon the editors that publishing names of alleged witnesses “may
amount to interference with the administration of justice because it reduces the
confidence of both actual witnesses and the public, in the ability and the will
of the Tribunal to protect its witnesses.”
He also spoke about the vital principles of freedom of expression, including
freedom of the press, and the proper administration of justice. Judge
Baragwanath stressed that the importance of the press “as the eyes, ears and
voice of the community is at its highest when confronted with the power of
public decision-makers, such as judges”. However the decision went on to stress
that like judges, and the rest of the community, the media must comply with the
law. “Nothing is more fundamental to the rule of law than that there must be no
deliberate interference with the administration of justice”. This “leaves intact
the ability of the press otherwise to comment on the Tribunal’s work, including
criticizing it”. The accused may choose whether to appear at the court in person
or by video-link. The initial appearances of the accused are scheduled for 13
May 2014.
LF Bloc Thanks MPs over 'Precious
Trust' Placed in Geagea
Naharnet/The Lebanese Forces bloc thanked on Thursday lawmakers
for placing their trust in LF chief Samir Geagea during the first round of the
presidential elections a day earlier. The bloc said in a short statement that
the “precious trust … was an essential motive for him to stay in the battle for
the presidency.”“The democratic battle is aimed at achieving the patriotic
objectives that we all aspire,” it added.
Lawmakers failed to elect a new president on Wednesday as no candidate was able
to garner the needed two-thirds of votes to become Lebanon's next head of state.
The session was attended by 124 of parliament's 128 members. But Geagea, who was
backed by the March 14 alliance, received the votes of only 48 MPs. Sixteen
lawmakers voted for Aley MP Henri Helou, one for Kataeb party chief ex-President
Amin Gemayel and 52 MPs, mainly March 8 alliance members, cast blank ballots.
Qahwaji from Tripoli: Security Plan to Proceed Until
Completion
Naharnet /Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji stated on Thursday
that the military institution's security plan in the northern city of Tripoli
will carry on until the whole mission is accomplished, the state-run National
News Agency reported. During a tour to inspect the military troops in Tripoli,
Qahwaji said “the security plan implemented in the city in assistance with the
security apparatus, enhanced the people's confidence in the state and nation,”
he said, assuring that the “army will continue to implement the plan until its
completion.” After meeting with officers and military members, the Army
Commander hailed their efforts and sacrifices. The army began implementing a
security plan in Tripoli in an attempt to put an end to the clashes that
frequently erupt between the city's rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and
Jabal Mohsen. The army and security forces have so far arrested dozens of
suspects and their efforts are ongoing to detain more. The plan was then
implemented in the Bekaa region, with the security forces cracking down on
gunmen, car theft gangs, and other outlaws.
Lebanon: Exercise in democracy
April 24, 2014/The Daily Star /The democratic process in Lebanon was respected
Wednesday as 124 out of 128 MPs in the legislature showed up for the
presidential polls, although no winner emerged.
The biggest “vote getter” was the blank ballot, as no candidate proved able to
command the two-thirds majority needed to become the next president. This was
natural, and widely expected, as the various factions engaged in a process of
testing the waters and seeing how many votes could be secured by Samir Geagea,
the candidate of most March 14 MPs, and Henri Helou, the candidate of centrist
figure Walid Jumblatt. But a handful of MPs opted to cast their ballots for
Civil War victims, and only ended up blemishing the session. They ignored the
fact that a blanket amnesty for the war was approved by Parliament long ago, and
the fact that no side in Lebanon has a clean record when it comes to that long,
divisive conflict. There are many other forums in which objections to certain
candidates may be put forward, and a presidential election, broadcast live on
satellite television, is not one of them. Moreover, the public might have
something to say about a spectacle in which one MP asked for a list of the
candidates prior to the vote, in a move – consciously or unconsciously – that
highlighted the ad hoc, unstructured process of electing a Lebanese president.
But until needed reform moves materialize, MPs should build on the positive
aspects of Wednesday’s vote as they prepare for next week’s follow-up session.
Most importantly, they should allow the political considerations of Lebanon’s
present and future to prevail, and not dredge up only one side of the country’s
problematic past.
Rai calls for consensus president
April 24, 2014/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Cardinal Beshara Rai on
Thursday called for a consensus president as he made a rare visit to Speaker
Nabih Berri’s residence in Ain al-Tineh. “The next president should be accepted
by everyone; this does not mean that he would be a weak [president],” Rai said.
“On the contrary, this would be his strength. We need to unite the ranks." Rai,
who visited the speaker ahead of a visit to Rome, said it was “necessary” for
him to meet Berri before traveling. “We have always been in contact,” he said.
The cardinal also hoped the quorum for Parliament’s session to elect a president
next week would be secured. “The lawmakers have a duty to attend the
parliamentary sessions because they have been elected by the people,” he said.
“I hope the quorum will be secured for next week’s session and every session so
that the lawmakers meet and elect responsibly.” Parliament convened Wednesday in
the first session to elect a new president with 124 lawmakers out of 128
attending the session. The lawmakers have until May 25, the end of President
Michel Sleiman’s six-year-term, to elect a new head of state. Berri scheduled
another session next week on Wednesday for a new round of voting. Speaking from
Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport, Rai also said “the president gets
elected based on his past, present and future.”“We [should] not leave it to the
last minute and get to the session without knowing who we would vote for,” he
added. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea got 48 votes in Wednesday’s session.
MP Henri Helou, who was nominated by Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid
Jumblatt, won 16 votes and Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel received one vote,
with 52 blank votes cast by most of the March 8 coalition’s MPs.
Kataeb to ask March 14 to nominate Gemayel
April 24, 2014/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The Kataeb party will ask the March 14
coalition to nominate Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel as the alliance’s presidential
candidate in the second round of the presidential election, Labor Minister
Sejaan Azzi said in remarks published Thursday. “The Kataeb party will ask the
March 14 coalition to choose a candidate other than Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea, after the first round did not conclude in his favor,” Azzi told As-Safir
daily. “The Kataeb had already decided to nominate Gemayel for the presidency
and he has every right to run for the election and to try to win as many votes
as he can,” Azzi said. The minister, a senior Kataeb official, said that the
March 14 coalition would hold discussions over the presidential election in the
coming days in order to decide on a unified stance. Parliament is to hold a
second vote on April 30, in which the winning candidate will need at least 65
votes to become president. 124 lawmakers of Parliament’s 128 members attended
Wednesday's session, where Geagea won 48 votes. Meanwhile, MP Henri Helou, who
was nominated by Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt, won 16
votes and Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel received one vote, with 52 blank
votes cast by most of the March 8 coalition’s MPs.
U.N. urges Lebanon to complete election on time
April 24, 2014/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: U.N. Special Coordinator
for Lebanon Derek Plumbly urged lawmakers Thursday to complete the presidential
election before the Constitutional deadline, a day after Parliament failed to
elect a candidate. “I should take the opportunity in light of yesterday’s events
to stress the priority that we attach to the continuity of state institutions
and in that sense to welcome the beginning of the presidential election process
yesterday and to underline our concern that it be completed successfully within
the timeframe set by law,” Plumbly said. His comments came during a brief chat
with reporters at the Grand Serail following a meeting with Prime Minister
Tammam Salam. MPs failed Wednesday to elect a new president in the first round
of polls in Parliament with presidential hopeful Samir Geagea receiving 48 votes
while 52 lawmakers opted to cast a blank ballot. Speaker Nabih Berri scheduled
April 30 for the second round of voting in which a nominee should receive 65
votes to win.
Plumbly also said he discussed with Salam the security plan aimed at restoring
law and order in the country, saying he expressed appreciation for the measures.
The U.N. official said he stressed the “international community’s support for
Lebanon’s security and the steps this government is taking.” “Specifically, on
the army, we had a meeting in Rome two weeks ago which was a preparatory one
designed to reinforce international efforts to assist the Lebanese army,” he
said. The two also spoke about the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon, with over
one million refugees. “I emphasized our continued support for the government as
it tries to address the very immediate challenges, our understanding of the size
of the challenge facing Lebanon and the readiness of the United Nations to stand
side by side with Lebanon including, of course, in providing assistance to host
communities,” he said.
U.S.-led Negotiations between Israel, Lebanon over EEZ
Reach Deadlock
Naharnet/Mediation led by the United States to resolve a dispute
between Lebanon and Israel over their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) has reached
a deadlock after a top U.S. official described it as “excellent” earlier this
month. U.S. Department of State Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Diplomacy
Amos Hochstein, who is mediating the talks between the two countries, confirmed
that the dispute on oil block 9. The U.S. is holding on to a proposal to
establish a “maritime Blue Line” that would help both countries control any
violation of their territorial waters. The Israeli Globes said that the “border
would be deemed temporary, until a permanent solution is found.” Lebanon had
previously voiced consensus over the proposal. Hochstein met earlier in April
during a short visit to Lebanon with senior officials including President Michel
Suleiman, PM Tammam Salam, Energy Minister Arthur Nazarian, Foreign Minister
Jebran Bassil, Speaker Nabih Berri's adviser Ali Hamdan, U.N. Special
Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly and head of al-Mustaqbal parliamentary
bloc Fouad Saniora. The Globes said that Lebanon considers it as “a good
starting point that needs fine tuning."However, the Israeli daily said the
dispute between Lebanon and Israel on oil block 9 is delaying the matter.
Lebanon's oil and gas wealth had attracted around 46 Arab and international
companies in the second pre-qualification round of the tenders process. The
tender has been previously postponed for several times over the failure of
former Prime Minister Najib Miqati's cabinet to approve the decrees that call
for demarcating 10 maritime oil exploration blocks and setting up a
revenue-sharing model. The awarding of Lebanon's 10 oil blocks have been
postponed from April to August over acute discord among Lebanese officials.
Lebanon and Israel are bickering over a maritime zone that consists of about 854
square kilometers and suspected energy reserves there could generate billions of
dollars. Lebanese officials continuously expressed fear that Israel's discovery
of a new offshore gas field near Lebanese territorial waters means the Jewish
state could siphon some of Lebanon's crude oil. In March 2010, the U.S.
Geological Survey estimated a mean of 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and
a mean of 34.5 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas in the Levant Basin in
the eastern Mediterranean, which includes the territorial waters of Lebanon,
Israel, Syria and Cyprus. The U.S. had offered to mediate between the sides in
an attempt to reach a solution. Beirut argues that a maritime map it submitted
to the U.N. is in line with an armistice accord drawn up in 1949, an agreement
which is not contested by Israel.
Car Theft Gang Mediators Arrested in Bekaa
Naharnet/State security has arrested in the eastern Bekaa valley three people
suspected of collaborating with car theft rings, the state-run National News
Agency reported on Thursday. NNA identified the suspects with their initials as
Q.A., Kh.M. and A.T. It said they were arrested in the Bekaa town of Bar Elias
for playing the role of mediators between the car thieves and the owners of the
vehicles.The suspects were involved in the collection of money from the owners
so that they retrieve their stolen vehicles, the agency added
Future MP blasts Aoun as non-consensual candidate
Now Lebanon/BEIRUT - Future bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat said Change and Reform bloc
leader Michel Aoun would make a divisive president and accused him of turning
the elections into a tool for Hezbollah to exert pressure on its rivals. “Aoun,
and the people who are behind him in March 8, deliver a clear message: either
accept their conditions and have Aoun as a president, or there will be no
elections,” Fatfat told Lebanese broadcaster MTV on Thursday. He added that he
was sorry to see Aoun covering for Hezbollah in what he said was “destroying the
presidency as an institution and turning it in to a space for bargaining and
pressure by Hezbollah.”The Future MP went on to slam Aoun for walking out of
Wednesday’s electoral session calling him non-consensual and accusing him of
stirring up the past.
“Aoun showed that he is not a consensual politician at all yesterday, by voting
blank, re-opening the wounds of the civil war and digging up graves, and by
leaving the session in unison with the March 8 team. It is very clear that he is
far from consensuality.” After casting blank votes, Aoun and other MPs belonging
to the March 8 coalition left Wednesday’s electoral session and were not present
when the votes were counted. Aoun said that he withdrew from the parliament
session due to the lack of consensus on a president.
Tashnaq youth demonstrate in front of Turkish embassy
Now Lebanon/BEIRUT – Youth members of Lebanon’s Armenian Tashnaq
Party demonstrated in front of the Turkish embassy in the Metn town of Rabieh on
Thursday, calling on the Turkish government to recognize the Armenian Genocide.
Henri Helou refuses to pull out of the presidential race
Now Lebanon/BEIRUT - MP Henri Helou refused to pull out of Lebanon’s ongoing
presidential race after receiving just 16 out of 128 votes in the first round of
elections on Wednesday, saying that he could not leave the country without a
consensual candidate. “The country needs a consensual candidate who is open to
everyone,” Helou told Lebanese broadcaster Risala Radio on Thursday. “Saving the
country is more important than anything else. I will not withdraw.” He added
that: “The statements of all parties were clear yesterday. I will begin
discussions with the various blocs.”In Wednesday’s session, the Lebanese
parliament failed to elect a president for the republic to replace Michel
Suleiman, whose term ends on May 25, in the first round of elections held on
Wednesday. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, the first to publicly announce
his candidacy, gained 48 out of 128 votes against 52 blank votes cast by most of
the March 8 coalition’s MPs. Meanwhile, Helou, who was nominated by Progressive
Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt, won 16 votes and Kataeb Party leader
Amin Gemayel received one vote. At the end of the session, Speaker Nabih Berri
called for another round of elections on Wednesday, April 30. Political custom
has it that parliament cannot legally meet to elect a president unless
two-thirds of its members are present. In parliament's first vote for president,
a candidate must receive 86 votes to be elected. If no candidate gets 86 votes,
the threshold for election lowers to "half-plus-one," or 65, votes.
Al-Rahi Expected to Meet with Hariri in Rome over
Presidential Polls
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is scheduled to travel to Rome on
Thursday to attend several religious ceremonies and is expected to meet with al-Mustaqbal
movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri, al-Joumhouria daily reported. The newspaper
said that al-Rahi will attend a ceremony on Saturday night on the centenary of
the establishment of Saint Maroun church in Rome. President Michel Suleiman will
also participate in the event. The patriarch will attend on Sunday the
canonization ceremony in St. Peter's for Pope John Paul II and his Italian
predecessor John XXIII.
He will later head to France where he will meet with the Lebanese community at
the Roman Catholic pilgrimage site of Lourdes. Al-Joumhouria said that al-Rahi
and Hariri held a long telephone conversation on Sunday night. Their discussions
focused on the presidential elections and the need to elect a head of state
within the constitutional deadline. According to the newspaper, al-Rahi and
Hariri could meet in Rome on Sunday. It quoted Bkirki sources as expressing
their “extreme discontent” with the lack of quorum caused by the withdrawal of
the majority of March 8 lawmakers from parliament after voting in the polls.
They described it as an evasion of an agreement reached in Bkirki, in which the
different Christian parliamentary blocs vowed to guarantee a quorum in all the
election rounds and not only the first. The parliament will now hold a second
vote on April 30, in which the winning candidate will need only a simple
majority of 65 votes. An Nahar daily said a meeting that was scheduled to be
held in Bkirki between the top Maronite leaders was postponed due to al-Rahi's
trip which will last until May 6.
March 14 Alliance Mulling Another Candidate for Presidency
Naharnet/The March 14 alliance is mulling to adopt the candidacy
of another official in the run for presidency after Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea failed to garner the required parliamentary votes.
Sources close to the coalition said in remarks published in the pan-Arab daily
Asharq al-Awsat that the March 14 leadership is reconsidering its options after
the first round of voting. The sources said that the March 14 camp is seeking to
push forward the candidacy of Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel in the second
round after Geagea failed to earn 86 votes, which the winning candidate will
need to guarantee victory. The parliament failed to elect a new president on
Wednesday, with no candidate securing the two-thirds of the votes needed to win
and many lawmakers leaving their ballots blank. Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi, who
is loyal to Gemayel, told As Safir newspaper that the party will propose to the
alliance the candidacy of the Kataeb chief. “The March 14 coalition will hold
consultations in the upcoming few days ahead of the second parliamentary session
on Wednesday to unify its stance,” Qazzi added. For his part, al-Mustaqbal
lawmaker Ahmed Fatfat revealed in comments published in An Nahar that the March
14 coalition kicked off discussions after the first round to evaluate the
situation. “The alliance's candidate for the second round is being discussed,”
Fatfat added. The parliament will hold a second vote on April 30, in which the
winning candidate will need only a simple majority of 65 votes. On Wednesday,
124 of the parliament's 128 members were present, with 48 casting their ballots
for Geagea and one vote was submitted for Gemayel. But speaking after the vote,
Geagea said he would not drop out of the race. Gemayel said later that “the
party will take the decisions that can achieve our goals and this is why I'm not
in the race at the moment, although my nomination has been on the table since
the very beginning.”
For Christians, blessed are the dividers
April 24, 2014 /By Michael Young /The Daily Star
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2014/Apr-24/254183-for-christians-blessed-are-the-dividers.ashx#axzz2zk7xmUOg
Why is it that many people misjudged the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s
presidential bid by whether he became president? Using that benchmark, Geagea’s
inability to secure a majority Wednesday was a defeat. In fact, his aims were
different, and win or lose, he came out of the experience in a better position.
Geagea had three principal objectives in his candidacy: to compel March 14 in
general, and the Future Movement in particular, to endorse him as their
favorite. In that way he strengthened his hand as the coalition’s primary
Christian representative at a time when Future has improved its relationship
with Michel Aoun. Geagea also apparently sought to turn the election into a
contest between him and Aoun, knowing that such a situation would effectively
neutralize both, blocking Aoun. Whether this gambit has actually succeeded
remains to be seen. And third, Geagea sought to legitimize the idea that Samir
Geagea can be a presidential candidate, amid a widespread belief that, given his
past, he could never pretend to such an office. While the Lebanese Forces leader
is no worse than others from the war generation who are in positions of
authority today, the stigma that has stuck to him has somehow been more
enduring. That is why Geagea sought a way of rewriting his personal narrative.
Geagea can look with some satisfaction on his strategy and will hope to cash in
on this when parliamentary elections come later this year. But there was also
something disconcerting in Geagea’s endeavor, a feeling that he was wrestling
with old phantoms. No event better illustrated this than Geagea’s decision to
show journalists a replica of his Defense Ministry prison cell that he built at
his home in Maarab, complete with sound effects. Most would have buried that
past. Geagea, partly for opportunistic reasons, has refused to do so. That is
not surprising given that Geagea and Aoun, whose enmity once devastated the
Christians, are still the main protagonists in a struggle for communal
predominance. They cannot break free from that rivalry, and Christians cannot
break free from both men.
Unlike Geagea, Aoun has not bothered to grace the public with a political
program. There was a time when the Aounists serenely explained that they had
such a program, and that their understanding with Hezbollah was written down.
Not that such transparency changed much, but the implicit message was that Aoun
did politics differently than other leaders in Lebanon.
Today things have changed, and the Aounist faithful are not averse to a backroom
deal that could bring their champion to office. Aoun has not declared his
candidacy, preferring to present himself as a compromise candidate who will take
power only if invited by Lebanon’s diverse factions.
By virtue of his larger representation in Parliament and government, Aoun has
been less a hostage to the past than Geagea. He has had more on his political
plate to propel him forward. And yet his ambitions, too, were once thwarted by
an inability to shake off earlier animosities. In 2006, Aoun formally allied
himself with Hezbollah against the March 14 coalition, hoping this would advance
his plan to become president once Emile Lahoud’s term ended. In fact it did
precisely the opposite, ensuring that Aoun would be opposed by the March 14
parliamentary majority. Had Aoun remained in the center, between March 8 and
March 14, he would have been Lahoud’s natural, indeed uncircumventable,
successor on the basis of the large victory he had won in the elections of 2005.
What motivated Aoun was, principally, his hostility to the Hariri family and
Walid Jumblatt, whom he blamed for having tried to isolate him politically, and
who had been the general’s political adversaries prior to that. Rather than
putting his personal antagonisms aside in the pursuit of the presidential prize,
Aoun allowed himself to be manipulated in the March 8-March 14 battle,
ultimately being shunted aside when a consensus candidate was found in Michel
Sleiman. Aoun appears to have realized his error, and recently he has tried to
sound presidential. But it could be too late, though there is a possibility that
Saad Hariri could support Aoun in a maneuver that has several politicians
worried, Geagea and Jumblatt above all.
With the first round of elections over, there is now room for a variety of
options. Aoun can delight in the fact that Geagea received fewer votes than the
number of blank ballots. Jumblatt can be happy that Henri Helou received 16
votes. In other words, if March 14 were to support Helou in the second round,
they and Jumblatt would name the president. This could ward off a Hariri-Aoun
rapprochement, which would marginalize Jumblatt. But beyond the specifics of the
election, a larger question is how long will the Christians be ruled by the
figures from their past? The broader community, and the Maronites in particular,
are in perpetual search of a strongman. This makes them no different than
Lebanon’s other communities. But when the men toward whom they are turning are
the same ones who destroyed Christian fortunes, you have to wonder about the
Christians’ priorities. For now Lebanon is still without a president, and it’s
not for the Christians to decide who becomes one. The next president will have a
far more momentous task, that of leading Lebanon through the labyrinth of
Sunni-Shiite tensions and ensuring that the country remains united. Having
divided their own community, Aoun and Geagea seem poorly equipped for such an
undertaking.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.
An Iran deal is close, but we’re not there yet
April 24, 2014/By David Ignatius/The Daily Star /As the Iran
nuclear talks reach roughly the halfway point in the six-month timetable for
negotiating a comprehensive agreement, both sides report slow, steady progress
in closing gaps – but no deal yet. A positive sign was a tentative plan floated
this month to reduce the threat posed by Iran’s heavy-water reactor under
construction at Arak. When I talked in Tehran with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif
in December, Arak appeared to be a deal-breaker. But negotiators seem to have
found what they like to call a “win-win” solution. The Arak compromise formula
was outlined recently in the journal Arms Control Today. It proposes feeding the
reactor with low-enriched fuel and operating it at lower power. The output would
be more of the medical isotopes Iran says it needs and much less of the
plutonium that the West fears could fuel a bomb. “The issue is virtually
resolved,” Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Akbar Salehi, said last week. The agreed
proposal is “to redesign the Arak reactor and to reduce its plutonium production
to one-fifth.”
Officials close to the talks note several interesting aspects of the first
rounds of discussion, as negotiators push toward a tentative deadline of July
20:
First, Russia has continued to play a constructive role, despite President
Vladimir Putin’s confrontational behavior in Ukraine. U.S. officials believe
that Putin genuinely doesn’t want a nuclear-armed Iran, and that he sees
Russia’s role as an international power enhanced by its partnership in the
P5-plus-1 coalition. The nuclear talks give Putin influence he would be
reluctant to give up.
Second, Iran continues to mix its pragmatic stance in the negotiations with
stridently anti-Western rhetoric, most recently in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s
March 21 message for the Persian New Year, known as Nowruz. Khamenei’s speech
included one passage describing the Holocaust as “uncertain” and in another
proclaiming that Iran had a “resistance economy” that could defy Western
sanctions.
Third, a sign of Iran’s pragmatism, amid its leader’s bombastic rhetoric, was
Salehi’s comment that Iran had “no problem” with opening its military site at
Parchin to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Fourth, negotiators on both sides appear to be taking seriously the six-month
bargaining timetable set in the interim deal reached in Geneva last November
that temporarily froze Iran’s nuclear program. The official negotiating clock
started ticking Jan. 20.
U.S. and European officials initially believed a rollover of the interim freeze
might be needed, adding another six months after July 20. But there now appears
to be renewed focus on the deadline – partly because Iran wants relief from
sanctions, and partly because November’s U.S. elections may yield a more
conservative Congress that’s less supportive of an agreement.
Iranian and Western negotiators are now beginning to draft proposed language for
a final, comprehensive pact. They’ll begin comparing those texts next month,
officials expect.
The trickiest remaining problem is the limitation of enrichment by Iran to a
level consistent with a civilian nuclear program. The Geneva agreement affirmed
Iran’s “right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” including a “mutually
defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures.” But
what will such language mean in practice? Iran currently has 19,000 centrifuges;
how many would have to be mothballed?
Secretary of State John Kerry suggested in Senate testimony this month that the
U.S. goal was to extend Iran’s current “breakout” time for producing enough
highly enriched uranium for a bomb from “about two months” to something longer.
“So six months to 12 months is – I’m not saying that’s what we’d settle for –
but even that is significantly more,” Kerry said.
A detailed explanation of possible formulas was published last month by Robert
Einhorn, formerly the State Department’s top arms-control official. He noted
that Iranian breakout time would be 12 months if it were allowed to operate
6,000 new generation IR-1 centrifuges with a stockpile of only 500 kilograms of
3.5 percent enriched uranium. If the number of centrifuges were cut to 2,000 and
Iran were allowed 1,500 kilograms of 3.5 percent material, the breakout time
would lengthen slightly to 12 to 14 months.
Negotiators will be focused on such highly technical calculations over the next
three months, as the clock ticks. The deeper question is whether Khamenei’s Iran
is really ready for fundamental accommodation with the West. Karim Sadjadpour of
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace rightly cautions: “I don’t see
how you can get a technical resolution to what’s essentially a political
conflict.”
The details of a possible deal are visible, but not yet the will in
revolutionary Iran to compromise.
**David Ignatius is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.
Russian army ordered to advance toward
Ukraine border. Moscow questions May election’s legitimacy
DEBKAfile Special Report April 24, 2014/Thursday, April 24, saw a steep
escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kiev after the Ukrainian army killed
up to five pro-Russian militiamen in an attack on three checkpoints outside the
eastern town of Slavyansk. President Vladimir Putin threatened “consequences.”
He added that the legitimacy of the May 25 elections was in serious question.
Defense Minister Gen. Sergey Shoigu ordered the Russian army to start drills at
Rostov on Don near the Ukraine border. debkafile’s military sources report that
this order amounted to a state of alert, which required the troops to close
their distance to the Ukraine border and take up prepared positions as
bridgeheads for entering East Ukraine when the order is given. Ukraine’s acting
president demanded that Moscow pull its troops back from the border and stop
“blackmail.”In the past 48 hours, Russian officials have kept up an
unprecedented stream of invective against the provisional government in Kiev and
the Obama administration’s military, intelligence and financial intervention in
Ukraine. The opening shot was fired by Russia’s UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin,
who Wednesday, April 23, blamed the US for the “pushing through the most radical
scenario” in Kiev to save its $5 billion investment in regime change. He was
commenting on the statement by US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland
who told CNN Monday that the US had invested around $5 billion in supporting
democracy in Ukraine since the fall of the Soviet Union. Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov came next. He charged Washington with “running the show very much, very
much.” As proof, Lavrov pointed to the timing of the Ukrainian government's
re-launch of its security operation just after a two-day visit by US Vice
President Joe Biden. The Ukraine army “had been ordered to shoot at people
engaged in peaceful protests,” he said. Yet Kiev had failed to disarm its own
extremists.This was rounded off Thursday by Putin, who accused the Kiev “junta”
of using the “military machine” to perpetrate a “very, very serious war crime
against its own people” and promised “consequences.” All this rhetoric added up
to a bitter assault by Moscow on Washington for its support of what it regards
as an illegitimate regime in Kiev and blame for what is seen as its illegal
military actions against the pro-Russian militias of eastern Ukraine.
The Ukraine crisis has pursued US President Barack Obama in his four-nation
Asian tour. In answer to reporters’ questions in Tokyo, he accused Moscow
Thursday of failing to halt actions by pro-Russian militants in Ukraine and not
acting “either in the spirit or the letter of the agreement in Geneva."
He said the US had further sanctions against Russia "teed up."
Opinion: Whatever happened to
deterrence?
By: Eyad Abu Shakra/Ashaeq Al Awsat
We have grown accustomed to the deterrence theory formulated as the Cold War
began. The concept covers “nuclear deterrence” down to the last detail. Nuclear
deterrence—or, more accurately, the “balance of terror” and mutually assured
destruction theory—constituted a key element of the Cold War and gave rise to
several important results.
The first was how this idea facilitated the independence of the majority of
African, Asian and Latin American states by means of revolutions supported by
the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc against the old colonial powers. Second
was the US inheriting the legacies of the old colonial powers, particularly
those of Great Britain and France, in the 1950s. A third was the entrenchment of
bipolarity, between the US and the Soviet Union, as proxy wars and military
coups spread across the world.
The logic of deterrence appealed to the mindset of American, Soviet and European
leaders who resorted to military intervention whenever they felt that their
direct interests were under threat. The other side was aware that it had to
balance its interests in choosing where to fight and where to accept defeat.
That logic was also based on an implicit understanding that each superpower had
its own private “backyard”—its sphere of influence—where it was not to be
approached or manipulated. Instead, competition and confrontation were tolerated
in other, less exclusive, arenas.
Since the 1950s, we have witnessed several interventions of all kinds, sizes and
aspects: in Korea, Iran, Hungary, the former Czechoslovakia, Cuba, Indochina,
the Middle East, and several Latin American and African countries.
Wars, coups, troop depoloyments, and military incursions aimed at toppling
leaders of all political stripes were the defining feature of that long period
of competition between these two axes. Even in the electoral campaigns of
European democratic parties, the issue of nuclear armament formed a significant
part of the manifestos of Right-wing, Left-wing and liberal-leaning
parties—underlining the most dangerous theater of confrontation during the Cold
War.
To highlight how important this issue was, we can take an example from British
Labour Party MP Gerald Kaufman. He famously described his party’s 1983 election
manifesto as “the longest suicide note in history”, because at that time his
party, under the leadership of the leftist/pacifist Michael Foot, insisted that
Britain unilaterally abandon its nuclear weapons. That “suicidal” manifesto
deprived Labour of power until 1997.
Thus deterrence as a concept is highly significant to relations between
countries. It is also realistic and reasonable, whatever your moral beliefs
about the issue. The world of politics is based on interests, but there must
also be a sense of prudence based on the prevailing circumstances. In other
words, sometimes compromise is required, while at other times one must remain
steadfast, depending on the situation. Perhaps, among the most significant
characteristics of the successful leader is knowing when to appease and when to
threaten, with whom to act tough and with whom to be lenient.
Throughout the long US–Soviet conflict, the world witnessed a series of mutual
challenges between the two superpowers: The Soviets imposed their will by
crushing the Hungarian uprising in 1956, in the face of Washington’s
incompetence. Then, in 1962, President Kennedy confronted Soviet leader Nikita
Khrushchev by setting up a naval blockade of Cuba during the now-infamous Cuban
Missile Crisis, when the USSR attempted to install intermediate-range nuclear
missiles in Cuba as a response to Washington’s deployment of nuclear missiles in
Turkey. Ultimately, Khrushchev had to swallow his pride to avert disaster. But,
Moscow soon took back its place of power, cracking down on the “Prague Spring”
in the former Czechoslovakia in 1968.
The confrontation between the two superpowers continued throughout 1979 as
conflicts ensued in Iran and Afghanistan and the Middle East became embroiled in
the Arab–Israeli conflict. Despite his success in sponsoring the Camp David
Accords, President Carter’s response to the Iran hostage crisis was weak,
leading to his crushing electoral defeat by Reagan’s Republican Party hawks in
November 1980. During the tough Reagan presidency, Soviet leader Mikhail
Gorbachev faced the US’s strategic extortion with excessive moderation and
conciliatory compromises, provoking the ire of his domestic rivals and
precipitating the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Today, President Obama claims to have been elected into office twice on the
basis of his anti-war election campaign. Thus he is content with making threats
and denunciations and imposing economic sanctions in the continued strategic
confrontation with a reinvigorated Russia led by ambitious no-nonsense leaders.
Obama and his team seem like starting their bids with Moscow as well as Tehran
by announcing in advance that Washington has no intentions of going to war. Such
an announcement—as we can clearly see—not only reassures Washington’s enemies,
but gives them a freehand to do what they want.
Obama followed this feeble policy in Syria while Iran and Russia publicly and
directly supported President Bashar Al-Assad with personnel and weapons. The
White House’s barrage of empty threats and red lines were unceremoniously
dismissed. Such US passivity has not gone unnoticed by Vladimir Putin; indeed,
they have revived Moscow’s hopes of reclaiming its traditional spheres of
influence, particularly in the former republics of the Soviet Union. The
annexation of Crimea is just the start.
Where will Putin’s ambitions, fed by Moscow’s bitterness at its defeat in the
Cold War, end?
A lot depends on how President Obama reacts. Thus far, Washington has
concentrated on threatening economic sanctions, international isolation and a
number of other measures it has convinced itself will pressure the Russians into
losing their growing confidence in their capabilities. Earlier this week, some
in Washington thought of reminding Russia that the “balance of power” between
the two states is titled in favor of the US. Well, perhaps there is some truth
in that. Having somehow overcome its crushing economic crisis thanks to Obama’s
astute domestic policy, the US is now in a better position to confront external
threats. However, much depends on the current US administration’s belief in what
constitutes an effective and realistic foreign policy against rivals who are
ready to play the brinkmanship game.
The reality of the situation now is that the threats from Moscow and Tehran are
creating new realities on the ground.
Assad's new exit strategy: to lose at
the elections?
Thursday, 24 April 2014
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya
“Do you think Bashar al-Assad decided to hold presidential elections in Syria so
he can exit from the crisis and cede power in a legitimate manner?" This is what
an optimist, or what we call a dreamer, asked me amidst all this chaos! Those
who know Bashar al-Assad’s history are not surprised of his past actions and
will not be convinced by any future promises. The man plans to stay Syria's
president against everyone's will and regardless of the means he will have to
adopt from killing people using explosive barrels to playing the electoral
ballots game. So why is he bothering to hold the elections and make people
choose a president after he refused their wish for him stand down from his
position? Why is he punishing them by destroying the country over their heads
while making them vote?
It's because he thinks holding the elections buys him more time, distracts the
West and sends a clear message that he's staying in power for many more years.
He could have postponed the elections for a year or two under the excuse of war
and thus continued to be president. He's aware that people mock the elections as
a charade and that it will provoke the Western countries amid their efforts to
broker peace.
A Twitter user posted this image on the social networking site with the caption:
"The new presidential candidates in Syria" A history of brutality, fake
democracy
Assad is an expert at engineering elections. He's previously forged them for
parliament and his party - just like his dad did. It's certain the elections
will be "honest" - meaning all votes will go to him because voters will not dare
vote for anyone other than him.
“Assad is holding elections because he thinks holding the elections buys him
more time, distracts the West and sends a clear message that he's staying in
power for many more years. ”
Assad is a man who killed tens of thousands without distinguishing among them or
knowing their identities because they dared reject him. It's easy for such a man
to kill those who don’t vote for him when he has their name and address! Two
years ago, this time, he resorted to using tricks for the parliamentary
elections.In May 2012, 12,000 polling stations opened at the same time he sent
his forces to launch fierce battles in north -west Syria. He also ordered the
use of invisible ink to further guarantee integrity. What's the value of
integrity and secrecy when elections are imposed? It was said that 5 million out
of 10 million eligible voters participated in the elections. This is impossible!
And of course, Assad's party won the same number of parliamentarian seats it
previously had - minus one seat! This is the maximum level of integrity and
democracy he allows.
Truth is, true democracy is not a problem just in Syria and Assad is not the
only president preventing democracy as the entire region is a barren desert when
it comes to it. The Syrians have faced this issue ever since Hafez al-Assad was
president, with his brutality even worse than the practices of eastern Europe
regimes.
Syria, during Hafez and Bashar's eras, has been a country of detentions and
repugnant governance with a terrifying security regime. It's normal for people
to revolt regardless of whether the regime claims democracy or not. Libya, and
under Muammar Qaddafi's rule, lived in a state of terror and suppression to an
extent where people took up arms to confront him and took the risk of heading
towards an unknown future.
**This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on April 24, 2014.