LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 12/14
Bible Quotation for today/ou
always have the poor with you, but you do not always have me
John 11,55-57.12,1-11/: "Now the Passover of the Jews was near, and many
went up from the country to Jerusalem before the Passover to purify
themselves. They were looking for Jesus and were asking one another as they
stood in the temple, ‘What do you think? Surely he will not come to the
festival, will he?’ Now the chief priests and the Pharisees had given orders
that anyone who knew where Jesus was should let them know, so that they
might arrest him. Six days before the Passover Jesus came to Bethany, the
home of Lazarus, whom he had raised from the dead. There they gave a dinner
for him. Martha served, and Lazarus was one of those at the table with him.
Mary took a pound of costly perfume made of pure nard, anointed Jesus’ feet,
and wiped them with her hair. The house was filled with the fragrance of the
perfume. But Judas Iscariot, one of his disciples (the one who was about to
betray him), said, ‘Why was this perfume not sold for three hundred denarii
and the money given to the poor?’
(He said this not because he cared about the poor, but because he was a
thief; he kept the common purse and used to steal what was put into it.)
Jesus said, ‘Leave her alone. She bought it so that she might keep it for
the day of my burial. You always have the poor with you, but you do not
always have me.’ When the great crowd of the Jews learned that he was there,
they came not only because of Jesus but also to see Lazarus, whom he had
raised from the dead. So the chief priests planned to put Lazarus to death
as well, since it was on account of him that many of the Jews were deserting
and were believing in Jesus.
Pope Francis's Tweet For Today
Only trust in God can transform doubts into certainty,
evil into good, night into radiant dawn.
Pape François
Seule la confiance en Dieu peut transformer le doute en certitude, le mal en
bien, la nuit en aurore radieuse.
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources For April 12/14
The presidential chess game has begun/By: Michael Young/The Daily Star/April 12/14
Bashar al-Assad: a costly card for Iran/By: Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiyia/April 12/14
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources For April 12/14
Lebanese Related News
Tensions between Berri, ABL over Wage Scale Funding Eased following Talks with Khalil
Nasrallah is just not interesting
Mustaqbal Officials in Riyadh to Brief Hariri on Election Talks
Geagea to Propose Partnership with Hizbullah if Elected as President
Al-Rahi: I Have Not Rejected Nomination of Any March 8, 14 Presidential Candidate
Rai denies favoring consensus candidate
Demo against Arrest Warrants Called Off in Tripoli, More Fugitives Interrogated
Car Theft Gang Arrested in Bekaa
Hizbullah Fighters Say a 'Duty' to Help Assad
Vatican Officials Warn Presidential Vacuum Would Harm Christians
Berri Urges Ambassadors Not to Interfere in Presidential Vote
Joint Parliamentary Committees Approve Fines on Illegal Seaside Properties to Fund Wage Scale
Smuggling of 12 Million Captagon Pills to Dubai Foiled at Beirut Port
Crafty Chamoun relied on network of internal and external ties
Tripoli stands united with the Army: Mufti Shaar
Students data to be handed over to STL
Miscellaneous Reports And News
Al-Nusra, Allies Repel ISIL's Attack on Syria's al-Bukamal as Death Toll Hits 86
The Syrian War/Change the course
New Syria chemical attack allegations under investigation
Egypt violence kills 3; group names suicide bomber
Putin Pledges to Fulfill Europe Gas Obligations as G20 Says Monitoring Ukraine Economy
U.N. Experts Urge Iran to Give Political Prisoners Medical Care
White House to Iran: No visa for UN envoy pick
Study: Iran’s military capabilities do not match
its ambitions
Study: Iran’s military capabilities do not match its
ambitions
U.S. wont intervene in Middle East conflicts
Arab League chief backs peace talks
US says no visa for Iran's proposed UN envoy
Al-Rahi: I Have Not Rejected Nomination of Any March 8, 14 Presidential
Candidate
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi stressed on Friday the need to stage
the presidential elections on time, saying that he does not have the right to
interfere in the elections.
He said upon his return to Lebanon from a trip to Geneva: “I have not rejected
the nomination of any March 8 or 14 camp presidential candidate and I do not
have the right to refuse any bid.”
Parliament alone has the right to approve or reject a nomination, he remarked to
reporters from Rafik Hariri International Airport. “Parliament alone elects a
president,” he said. “I advocate any president that is elected by the parliament
and I will not veto any candidate,” al-Rahi added. “We welcome any president who
enjoys parliament's consensus, regardless if they support the March 8 or 14
camps,” said the patriarch. “We must respect the constitution as it represents
Lebanon's backbone,” he said, while urging officials to hold consultations to
stage the elections. Moreover, al-Rahi rejected any presidential vacuum or
attempts to create vacuum in the presidential post. “We respect the constitution
and would accept amending it only if the need arises,” he stated. President
Michel Suleiman's six-year term ends in May but the Constitution states that the
parliament should choose a new head of state within a two-month period, which
started on March 25. Speaker Nabih Berri is likely to call for a parliamentary
session on April 22 or 23 to elect a new president, As Safir newspaper reported
on Wednesday. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea is the only official to so far
announce his candidacy. Lebanese media have in recent weeks identified other
presidential hopefuls as Kataeb party leader and ex-President Amin Gemayel, MPs
Butros Harb and Robert Ghanem, who are like Geagea members of the March 14
alliance. Other potential candidates are Hizbullah allies Free Patriotic
Movement leader MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh.
Geagea to Propose Partnership with Hizbullah if Elected as President
Naharnet /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea revealed on Friday that he
will propose to Hizbullah if he was elected as president “real partnership,”
considering that the theory of “vacuum at the presidential post is better than
choosing a weak head of state” has crumbled after he ran for the presidency. “I
will suggest real partnership with Hizbullah to build a state that is capable
with the army's weapons as the only means to protect all the citizens,” Geagea
said in an interview with As Safir newspaper. He noted that the “Shiites are the
ones mostly harmed by the ongoing status-quo in the country.” “The army and with
its available capabilities could replace Hizbullah's role in the conflict with
Israel as the elite forces could deploy and engage in operations according to
the necessary needs,” the Christian leader added. Geagea stressed that his run
for presidency is “serious,” admitting that his “journey to the Baabda Palace
would be hard.” “I realize all this... but there's nothing impossible in
politics.” Concerning consultations with the March 14 allies over his decision,
the LF leader told As Safir that “he is mulling with his allies his chances,”
noting that “al-Mustaqbal movement's decision will be according to its
convictions.” Geagea denied that his move “was to embarrass (Mustaqbal movement)
leader Saad Hariri and block the way before other March 14 candidates.” “If I
didn't have the minimal level of contacts with my allies and if I wasn't
convinced that I have at least crossed half the road to gain their support, I
wouldn't have run for the presidency.” He warned the political arch-foes from
boycotting a parliamentary session set to elect a new president, saying: “they
will pay a high price.” “I advise the March 8 alliance not to cause vacuum at
the presidential post as it will be the biggest loser,” Geagea said.
However, he told the daily that the theory of “vacuum is better than a weak
president has crumbled as the March 14 coalition has a strong president
candidate, who is me in principle, and the March 8 camp will have another strong
candidate, who hasn't been revealed yet.” He predicted that head of the Free
Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun will run for presidency on behalf of the March
8 alliance. Geagea considered that “the political power in the country is
currently in favor of the March 14 coalition.” President Michel Suleiman's
six-year term ends in May but the Constitution states that the parliament should
choose a new head of state within a two-month period, which was on March 25.
Geagea was the first to announce last week that he will run for the presidency.
Lebanese media have in recent weeks identified other presidential hopefuls as
Kataeb party leader and ex-president Amin Gemayel, MPs Boutros Harb and Robert
Ghanem, who are like Geagea members of the March 14 anti-Syria movement. Other
potential candidates are Hizbullah allies Aoun and Marada Movement leader MP
Suleiman Franjieh. Lebanese presidents are always chosen from the Christian
Maronite community.
Mustaqbal Officials in Riyadh to Brief Hariri on Election Talks
Naharnet/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc leader MP Fouad Saniora is in Riyadh to
brief al-Mustaqbal movement chief ex-Premier Saad Hariri on the results of
consultations held in Beirut over the presidential elections. An Nahar daily
said Friday that Saniora was accompanied by Nader Hariri, the adviser of al-Mustaqbal
movement leader. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil has reportedly told the adviser
during a meeting they held on Sunday that Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel
Aoun would not announce his candidacy for the presidency if there was no
political consensus on him. Bassil, who is Aoun's son-in-law, said the FPM
leader rejected his possible candidacy to be considered against the presidential
bid of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, a Hariri ally. Similar meetings were
held in the past week between Geagea and Saad Hariri's envoy to discuss the
elections that should be held by May 25 when President Michel Suleiman's
six-year tenure ends. Geagea met with Nader Hariri last Saturday and former MP
Ghattas Khoury on Monday. The LF chief's press office said Monday's “talks
focused on the importance of preserving the unity of the March 14 alliance at
this stage to bring a single candidate from the coalition to the
presidency.”Geagea announced last week that he would run for president, throwing
the March 14 coalition in confusion after several of its officials said that the
camp would have a single candidate.
Hizbullah Fighters Say a 'Duty' to Help Assad
Naharnet /As he pushes a cart full of tomatoes and cucumbers in the
market at Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon, nothing marks out Mahmoud as an
experienced Hizbullah fighter.
The stocky vegetable vendor in his fifties, who sports a red beard, fought
Israel in 2006, but that battle is now old news. He has just come back from
another front: in Syria, where he fought for 25 days against the rebels who have
sought to overthrow President Bashar Assad for the past three years. Since the
Shiite movement's chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave the order more than a year
ago, thousands of Hizbullah fighters have fought in Syria, playing a decisive
role in key victories for the regime. Street vendors, farmers, restaurant
owners, medical professionals and students have all joined what they call an
"existential battle" against "takfiris" -- Sunni extremists. "When the party
called on me to go, I responded. I left my job and I went to stop the takfiris
from entering Lebanon," says Mahmoud.
"I fought in several regions and took fighters from the region and elsewhere
prisoner," he adds. "Our cause is just. They are mercenaries from Chechnya,
Yemen and Libya who want to overthrow Bashar Assad, who supported us enormously
during the 2006 war against Israel," Mahmoud insists. "It's our duty to help
him." Hizbullah presents its role as protecting Syria from Sunni-dominated
rebels who they say want to overthrow the regime because they hate Alawites,
including Assad, whose faith is an offshoot of Shiite Islam. In another southern
Lebanese village, Fatima has not let the death of her husband in the June 2013
battle for Syria's Qusayr stop her from encouraging her son to join the fight.
"I've send Khodr, with dozens of other young men, to do one month of training in
Lebanon," she says. "He must learn to handle weapons so that he can become a
fighter like his father." Next to her, Khodr sorts tobacco seedlings for
planting. His beard is just coming in and his eyes are sad. He wears a picture
of his father around his neck and has a pin on his T-shirt bearing Nasrallah's
picture and his phrase "Victory awaits us". His older brother Wissam, 25, came
back from Syria a week earlier. "We obey Sayyed Hassan (Nasrallah) when he
invites us to fight. My father died a martyr and we must follow his path," he
says. There are no official figures on how many Hizbullah fighters have been
killed in Syria, but some put the toll at around 300. "Should we let them come
and kill us like sheep, like they have done to the Shiites in Iraq and Syria?
No, we will defeat them as we defeated Israel," Wissam adds. When they first
began fighting in Syria, Hizbullah members refused to discuss their involvement,
but now they talk about it with pride, while declining to offer details of their
numbers or operations. At a school in southern Lebanon, Hizbullah posters
advertise scouting sessions, but the accompanying photos of young men in
military uniforms suggest the training is more combat-based. In some places,
there are voices of dissent against the group's involvement in the conflict next
door. "They sent my son to his death without my approval. Who told them that I
wanted my son to die in Syria?" one man asks, declining to be named for fear of
incurring Hizbullah's wrath. But that sentiment is rare among the party's
constituents, who also know Hizbullah will support them if their loved ones are
killed.
"My family's future is safe if I die. They'll take care of the schooling for my
nine-year-old son and look after his health," says Osama, a 38-year-old party
member in the city of Tyre. In Baalbek, a Hizbullah stronghold in eastern
Lebanon, 22-year-old Hussein is heading to Iran to undergo a commander training
course. The psychology student's parents are both party members and he has
already fought in Syria's northern province of Aleppo. "I'm very excited about
going to Iran to become a battalion chief. It's a promotion," he says, under his
mother's watchful eye. Source/Agence France Presse
Tensions between Berri, ABL over Wage Scale Funding Eased
following Talks with Khalil
Naharnet/Tensions between Speaker Nabih Berri and the Association
of Banks in Lebanon eased on Friday after signs of a dispute were beginning to
emerge between the two sides over the funding of the new wage scale. The speaker
had earlier during the day refused to meet with the ABL before its apologizes
for its stance concerning the tax measures proposed by the joint parliamentary
committees to fund the new wage scale. “Berri will not meet with the delegation
unless the head of the ABL, Francois Bassil, apologizes publicly to the press
over the attack launched by him against lawmakers and the parliament,” the
state-run National News Agency reported. The ABL chief later however held talks
with AMAL Minister Ali Hassan Khalil in an effort to ease the tensions. He
described the talks as “positive”, adding: “The ABL has always supported the
state... We hope that the state doesn't give up on us.”Bassil expressed hope
that Berri resolves the dispute between the Economic Committees and the
Syndicate Coordination Committee, urging him to act wisely to end the crisis.
The ABL voiced its opposition to the taxes proposed by lawmakers to cover the
expenses of the new salary scale that the SCC is demanding its endorsement by
the parliament. Most banks in Lebanon closed their branches across the
country to protest against the matter. Later NNA reported that AMAL Movement MP
Hani Qobeissi filed a complaint against the ABL chief for accusing lawmakers of
theft and embezzlement of public funds, but he later halted the charges
following Bassil's talks with Khalil.
Qobeissi noted however that the lawsuit has not yet been dropped.
“We reserve the right to continue with the complaint until Bassil
retracts his remarks against every politician in Lebanon,” he said. Khalil
meanwhile said that the decision to drop the lawsuit lies in Berri's hands
“because Bassil's insult was directed parliament as an institution.” For his
part, Bassil denied after talks with Khalil that he had accused MPs of anything,
noting that he only demanded an “administrative reform.” “Thursday's statement
only reflects my own opinion,” he said in a press conference, warning that “the
tax measures are being imposed in a hard economic situation.” “Lawmakers should
defend us, they are our representatives at the parliament,” Bassil said. He
described the new wage scale as “a righteous demand but trying to end the crisis
in this way will impact the banks.” Bassil stressed that the new wage scale
“should be studied thoroughly with the Economic Committees and the ABL.”He had
warned in remarks to An Nahar newspaper on Friday of a “revolution against
politicians in Lebanon, who bankrupted Lebanon.” “Increasing taxes on deposit
interest revenue will not have a direct impact on banks,” he pointed out, saying
that “the measure would affect new investments and deposits.” The joint
parliamentary committees agreed during a session on Thursday to raise the 5
percent tax on deposit interest revenue to 7 percent. The Economic Committees,
which also reject the new wage scale, held an emergency meeting on Thursday in
order to study the “catastrophic tax measures” adopted by the joint
parliamentary committees and their effects on the national economy. The
SCC had warned of escalation in the protests, of an open-ended strike and of
boycotting the correction of official exams if the parliament fails to endorse
the new wage scale that the joint parliamentary committees are studying ways to
fund it. Former Prime Minister Najib Miqati's cabinet approved in 2012 a new
salary scale for public employees ending a long dispute that had prompted the
SCC to hold several sit-ins and strikes. President Michel Suleiman signed the
decree mid-June 2013 and it was referred to the joint parliamentary committees
for further scrutiny. The wage increase will be retroactive from July 1, 2012.
The state treasury will have more than $1.2 billion to cover as there are over
180,000 public sector employees including military personnel.
Demo against Arrest Warrants Called
Off in Tripoli, More Fugitives Interrogated
Naharnet/A demonstration that was planned to take place on Friday to
protest the arrest warrants issued against hundreds of the northern city of
Tripoli's residents has been called off, after the interference of several
political figures. A group of young men had called via social media platforms
for a “mass demonstration” in Abdul Hamid Karami Square in Tripoli after
Friday's prayers, to demand withdrawing the arrest warrants issued against
hundreds of the city's residents. “But after the interference of many
influential figures in the city and the adoption of strict security measures by
the army, the protest has been called off,” the state-run National News Agency
said. "A small-scale sit-in took place instead, with dozens of participants
gathering in front of the Amira mosque in Tripoli's Bab al-Ramel neighborhood,”
NNA reported. The protesters called for the release of Sheikh Tareq Merhi, the
mosque's Imam, and his companions, who have been held in Roumieh prison for
years over their ties with militant group Fatah al-Islam, according to the same
source. In a related matter, Judge Nabil Wehbe interrogated on Friday two
detainees from the Tripoli neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbaneh, and issued arrest
warrants against them. Wehbe also issued arrest warrants in absentia against 12
other fugitives, among them were Ziad A., Saad M., and Farouq M. This
comes as army troops and security forces continue to implement a security plan
approved by the cabinet in the North and the Bekaa, to end the state of violence
and chaos in the region. So far, more than 40 fugitives have been arrested, and
many stolen vehicles and illegal weapons have been seized.
Car Theft Gang Arrested in Bekaa
Naharnet/State security forces arrested on Thursday a car theft gang in
the eastern Bekaa Valley as part of the implementation of the security plan in
the region, reported the National News Agency on Friday. It said that the
five-member Lebanese gang's activities were limited to robbing vehicles and
later selling them or trading them for drugs. They do not have a history of
murder or kidnapping, said NNA. The arrest was made when a Syrian vehicle was
reported stolen in the Bekaa region of Taalbaya. State security forces then
dispatched a patrol in the area, arresting a thief who was driving the car on
the Ghayda road, east of the city of Zahleh. The suspect confessed to committing
car theft along with four accomplices. They all later confessed to stealing
seven old model vehicles, selling them to a man identified as A.M.
Vatican Officials Warn Presidential Vacuum Would Harm
Christians
Naharnet/Vatican officials have expressed fears that a possible vacuum in the
presidency would harm the role of Christians in state institutions, al-Joumhouria
daily reported Friday.
The newspaper quoted the officials as saying that the election of a new
president was urgent amid the turmoil in Lebanon and the region. They said any
vacuum would affect power-sharing between Muslims and Christians and would harm
the role of Christians in state institutions, mainly the presidency that is
reserved for Maronites under the National Pact of 1943. Under the agreement
along confessional lines the prime minister should be a Sunni and the speaker a
Shiite. The danger of a presidential vacuum also lies on creating a precedence
on the absence of a head of state, which would be explained as a diminishing
role for Christians in the state, the officials said. Such a scenario
contradicts with the National Pact and the Constitution, they told al-Joumhouria.
The daily said last week that a delegation from the Vatican has been holding
talks with Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi and Maronite political leaders in an
attempt to bring to the helm of Baabda Palace the strongest and most popular
Christian politician.
The delegation, which has been sent to Lebanon by Pope Francis, is moving back
and forth between the papal embassy in Harissa, the seat of the Maronite church
in Bkirki and the residences of the Maronite political leaders, it said. The
Vatican officials are also expected to hold meetings with the rest of the
parliamentary blocs, al-Joumhouria quoted a Vatican source as saying.
Nasrallah is just not interesting
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4509150,00.html
Ynetnews/ 04.11.14/Analysis: Israel could have gotten rid
of Hezbollah leader quite easily, but at the end of the day – it's better the
devil you know.
It's amazing how time flies: The Lebanese Hezbollah organization is almost 30
years old, and Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has been in his position for
12 years now, almost 10 of them in hiding.
Occasionally, he gathers some courage and pops up for operations aimed at
lifting his supporters' spirits, and so two years ago we saw him come out
suddenly from behind a sealed screen on which his televised speech was being
aired. He provided the bad smile, two-three minutes in front of the cameras,
until the nervous bodyguards pushed him into the bunker, so that their
secretary-general would not be eliminated. The fact that Israel is not investing
any efforts in his assassination is a badge of shame for Nasrallah. As far as we
know, they once tried to poison him, but Iranian doctors saved his life at the
last minute. Nasrallah invited the recorders to air an unconvincing denial. They
say eyes chase him everywhere, that he should know he is transparent. There were
opportunities, Mr. Nasrallah. They could have gotten rid of you quite easily.
They even know who your replacement is. At the end of the day, however, it turns
out that it's better the devil you know.
A long time has gone by and Nasrallah is no longer in charge of the big issues.
In his hiding place, he is busy reading newspapers obsessively. He reads us, he
has politicians and commentators whose translations he makes sure to receive,
and he likes to make headlines with us. He scans the Lebanese media, spots
enemies, prepares notes for his next speech and invites a television crew. Not
everything that is recorded will necessarily make it to the big screens. It's
fascinating to discover every time just how much our experts have learned to
read his mind, how exposed he is even underground. And it seems as if Nasrallah
experts can almost always guess what the secretary-general sees as the most
pressing issue, what list of notes he has prepared for himself, what spin he'll
start rolling and what the Iranians have written for him in the EEI (essential
elements of information).
In general, Nasrallah is not interesting. It's advisable not to be alarmed by
his attempts to terrify, and to expose – if there even is a reason to expose –
the place he is seeking for himself within the Shiite camp, and the respect he
wants to gain for the fighters he sends to Syria at Tehran's orders.
We should pay attention that he is in trouble with the Lebanese government, with
mothers demanding a convincing explanation for the urgency of making young boys
do the Syrian army's job. He is also in trouble with the villagers in southern
Lebanon, who prefer to make a living off agriculture rather than see their lands
being seized and their storehouses being confiscated.
Last May, Nasrallah dropped a bomb when he exposed the big secret about hundreds
of Hezbollah men sent to fight in Syria. Apparently, he had no choice. It was
impossible to cover one's tracks when coffins return hundreds of bodies of
organization members who suddenly disappeared. Two weeks ago, in a speech
broadcast on a large screen in southern Lebanon, Nasrallah decided to insist
that "we entered Syria too late" – a sort of apology to his managers in Tehran.
From that same screen he also conveyed a stammering message to us, that he is
not interested in entering a conflict, that he won't be the one to start it. He
will continue, together with Hezbollah's operations commanders, to harass us
with attempts to plant explosive devices. If he gets the chance, he will gladly
kidnap an Israeli soldier. But in the sealed room he is learning to come to
terms with a new state of affairs: When Iran is negotiating with the American
administration, and Obama promises in Saudi Arabia not to make a bad deal, and
the Saudis still see Lebanon as a protégé, Nasrallah will be careful not to get
involved in an activity which will lead to a strong Israeli response.
Berri Urges Ambassadors Not to Interfere in Presidential Vote
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday called on the ambassadors of Arab and
foreign states not to interfere in the upcoming presidential election, which is
supposed to be held before May 25.
“Foreign ambassadors must not interfere in this election and must leave a chance
to 'Lebanonize' it and allow it to take its course,” National Media Council
chief Abdul Hadi Mahfouz quoted Berri as saying after he met the speaker in
parliament. “There is openness at the regional level, especially between Iran
and Saudi Arabia, and this will reflect positively on Lebanon," Berri added.
He said the recent appointment of a Saudi ambassador to Iran was a “positive
indication” in this regard. Separately, Mahfouz said he asked Berri to push for
the approval of a “unified press law” and that the speaker promised to exert
efforts to that end. A parliamentary delegation formed by Berri announced Monday
that all parliamentary blocs promised to attend the first parliamentary session
to elect a new president, which the speaker is expected to schedule "between
April 15 and April 30." The constitutional timeframe to elect a successor to
President Michel Suleiman began on March 25, amid the president's refusal of any
extension of his term -- which ends May 25. Until the moment, only Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea has officially nominated himself for the presidency.
Joint Parliamentary Committees Approve
Fines on Illegal Seaside Properties to Fund Wage Scale
Naharnet/The joint parliamentary committees approved on Thursday imposing fines
on illegal seaside properties as part of the plan to fund the new wage scale,
reported several media outlets. They approved the article on imposing fines on
seaside properties with a retroactive effect of five years. Voice of Lebanon
radio (93.3) said that 7.5 percent of the fine will be imposed on illegal
seaside construction, while 2.5 percent will be imposed on illegal properties.
LBCI television meanwhile spoke of a tense atmosphere at the joint parliamentary
committees as a result of a dispute over the illegal seaside properties that
preceded the approval of the article. The meeting witnessed the withdrawal of MP
Alaeddine Terro, who accused some ministers at the talks of not wanting to
resolve the dispute over the funding of the new wage scale. Earlier, Speaker
Nabih Berri had warned that lawmakers “were in for a long night” in order to
resolve the dispute over the wage scale and its funding. Ahead of the session,
Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Ali Fayyad had stated that he advocates
increasing the Value Added Tax on luxury products as part of efforts to fund the
scale. He suggested raising the VAT to 15 percent. The Association of Banks in
Lebanon later voiced its opposition to the tax measures proposed by the joint
parliamentary committees to fund the new wage scale. It consequently announced
that banks in Lebanon will be closed on Friday in protest against the
suggestions. The Economic Committees held an emergency meeting on Thursday in
order to study the “catastrophic tax measures” adopted by the joint
parliamentary committees and their effects on the national economy. “The
arbitrary decisions were adopted as part of political interests aimed at scaring
away Lebanese investments in their own country and killing the Lebanese
economy,” they said. They therefore urged Speaker Nabih Berri to withhold
presenting the new wage scale before parliament, noting: “Funding the wage scale
through taxes will not only negatively impact the national economy, but all the
Lebanese people including those who will benefit from the scale.” The Syndicate
Coordination Committee had staged a strike on Wednesday to pressure the joint
parliamentary committees to refer the new wage scale to parliament. The
committees have held several sessions to study the means in which to fund the
scale. The SCC had warned of escalation in the protests, of an open-ended strike
and of boycotting (the correction of) official exams. Former Prime Minister
Najib Miqati's cabinet endorsed in 2012 a new salary scale for public employees
ending a long dispute that had prompted the SCC to hold several sit-ins and
strikes. President Michel Suleiman signed the decree mid-June 2013 and it was
referred to the joint parliamentary committees for further scrutiny. The wage
increase will be retroactive from July 1, 2012. The state treasury will have
more than $1.2 billion to cover as there are over 180,000 public sector
employees including military personnel.
Putin Pledges to Fulfill Europe Gas
Obligations as G20 Says Monitoring Ukraine Economy
Naharnet/Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday said Moscow
would fulfill its obligations to send natural gas to Europe but also said the
United States had no business interfering in Russia's talks with Europe over
Kiev's debt. "We certainly guarantee the fulfillment of our obligations before
our European customers in full," Putin said in comments released by the Kremlin.
"The issue is not about us, the issue is about securing transit through
Ukraine." Putin on Thursday sent a letter to the heads of 18 European countries
that receive Russian gas, saying Moscow could turn off supplies because Kiev has
so far failed to repay its $2.2 billion energy bill. He urged immediate talks,
suggesting that Europe help pay Ukraine's debt. Washington condemned Russia's
efforts to use energy as "a tool of coercion against Ukraine." But Putin on
Friday suggested that Washington had no business meddling in European affairs.
"It's strange because reading other people's letters is not good. I did not
write to them, I wrote to the consumers of gas in Europe," he said at a meeting
of his Security Council. "Everyone is used to the fact that our American friends
are eavesdropping but peeping is really not nice (too)," he quipped.
Putin said the fact that Ukraine has not yet settled its gas debts was
"absolutely intolerable." The Russian strongman also suggested that Washington
follow up its promises of support with real action. "Pies on the Maidan will not
be enough," Putin said. "This is not enough to deter the Ukrainian economy from
slipping into complete chaos." The assistant U.S. secretary of state, Victoria
Nuland, was seen in December distributing cookies to pro-Western Ukrainian
protesters in Kiev in a gesture of support. Moscow has repeatedly slammed
Washington for publicly supporting the protesters who in February ousted
pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych from power. Meanwhile, Group of 20
finance ministers and central bank chiefs said Friday they were alert to risks
to the global economy from the Ukraine crisis in a draft statement at talks in
Washington. "We are monitoring the economic situation in Ukraine, mindful of any
risk to economic and financial stability," said the draft seen by Agence France
Presse.
The draft confirmed the concerns that tensions over Ukraine are causing a stir
in the leading 20 powers, which include the United States, Europe's major
countries and Russia.
The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the U.S. and European Union
have pledged some $27 billion to shore up the Ukrainian economy, but threatening
posturing by Russia on the country's eastern border has raised the risks for
that plan. "We are monitoring the economic situation in Ukraine, mindful of any
risks to economic and financial stability," the G20 said in the draft. The group
praised the IMF and World Bank for leading the economic rescue of the country.
Source/Agence France Presse
Al-Nusra, Allies Repel ISIL's Attack
on Syria's al-Bukamal as Death Toll Hits 86
Naharnet/Syria's al-Qaida affiliate and its allies have repulsed an
assault by jihadist rivals on a town on the Iraqi border in fighting that killed
86 people, a monitoring group said Friday.
Sixty of the dead were fighters of al-Nusra Front or its Islamist allies killed
pushing back their Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) rivals from
districts of al-Bukamal they had captured early Thursday, the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights said. Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told Agence France
Presse the rebels regained full control of al-Bukamal after reinforcements
poured in. ISIL withdrew to the T2 oil site, 60 kilometers (35 miles) southwest
of the town and where a Syria-Iraq pipeline runs, he said, after executing seven
fighters of a rival Islamist brigade. The clashes have prompted soldiers on the
Iraqi side of the border to reinforce their positions. The border crossing
itself on Syria's side remains in the hands of the mainstream rebel Free Syrian
Army, said a rebel chief and an Agence France Presse reporter on the Iraqi side
who saw the FSA flag flying over it. With their attack on al-Bukamal, ISIL
fighters wanted to link up with their comrades over the border in Iraq, said
Abdel Rahman. Iraqi troops put up blast walls and sand berms on their side of
the crossing as a precaution, the AFP correspondent reported. Al-Bukamal has
been under the control of fighters opposed to the Damascus regime since November
2012, but al-Nusra and its allies forced out former ISIL allies in heavy
fighting in late February. Thousands were killed in battles in several regions
of Syria in January and February pitting ISIL against its rivals and nominal
allies in the anti-Assad revolt. The Euphrates valley town of al-Bukamal had a
population of some 70,000 before the start of the Syrian conflict which the
Observatory says has cost more than 150,000 lives since March 2011. Syrian
troops now control just one official crossing on the Iraqi border -- al-Tanaf/al-Walid,
on the main highway to Baghdad. A third crossing, Yarabiyah/Rabia in the
northeast, is held by Kurdish militia. Source/Agence France Presse
Question: "What is true religion?"
GotQuestions.org/Answer: Religion can be defined as “belief in
God or gods to be worshipped, usually expressed in conduct and ritual” or “any
specific system of belief, worship, etc., often involving a code of ethics.”
Well over 90% of the world’s population adheres to some form of religion. The
problem is that there are so many different religions. What is the right
religion? What is true religion?
The two most common ingredients in religions are rules and rituals. Some
religions are essentially nothing more than a list of rules, do’s and don’t's,
that a person must observe in order to be considered a faithful adherent of that
religion, and thereby, right with the God of that religion. Two examples of
rules-based religions are Islam and Judaism. Islam has its five pillars that
must be observed. Judaism has hundreds of commands and traditions that are to be
observed. Both religions, to a certain degree, claim that by obeying the rules
of the religion, a person will be considered right with God.
Other religions focus more on observing rituals instead of obeying a list of
rules. By offering this sacrifice, performing this task, participating in this
service, consuming this meal, etc., a person is made right with God. The most
prominent example of a ritual-based religion is Roman Catholicism. Roman
Catholicism holds that by being water baptized as an infant, by partaking in the
Mass, by confessing sin to a priest, by offering prayers to saints in Heaven, by
being anointed by a priest before death, etc., etc., God will accept such a
person into Heaven after death. Buddhism and Hinduism are also primarily
ritual-based religions, but can also to a lesser degree be considered
rules-based.
True religion is neither rules-based nor ritual-based. True religion is a
relationship with God. Two things that all religions hold are that humanity is
somehow separated from God and needs to be reconciled to Him. False religion
seeks to solve this problem by observing rules and rituals. True religion solves
the problem by recognizing that only God could rectify the separation, and that
He has done so. True religion recognizes the following:
1. We have all sinned and are therefore separated from God (Romans 3:23).
2. If not rectified, the just penalty for sin is death and eternal separation
from God after death (Romans 6:23).
3. God came to us in the Person of Jesus Christ and died in our place, taking
the punishment that we deserve, and rose from the dead to demonstrate that His
death was a sufficient sacrifice (Romans 5:8; 1 Corinthians 15:3-4; 2
Corinthians 5:21).
4. If we receive Jesus as the Savior, trusting His death as the full payment for
our sins, we are forgiven, saved, redeemed, reconciled, and justified with God
(John 3:16; Romans 10:9-10; Ephesians 2:8-9).
True religion does have rules and rituals, but there is a crucial difference. In
true religion, the rules and rituals are observed out of gratitude for the
salvation God has provided – NOT in an effort to obtain that salvation. True
religion, which is Biblical Christianity, has rules to obey (do not murder, do
not commit adultery, do not lie, etc.) and rituals to observe (water baptism by
immersion and the Lord’s Supper / Communion). Observance of these rules and
rituals is not what makes a person right with God. Rather, these rules and
rituals are the RESULT of the relationship with God, by grace through faith in
Jesus Christ alone as the Savior. False religion is doing things (rules and
rituals) in order to try to earn God’s favor. True religion is receiving Jesus
Christ as Savior and thereby having a right relationship with God – and then
doing things (rules and rituals) out of love for God and desire to grow closer
to Him.
Have you made a decision for Christ because of what you have read here? If so,
please go to http://www.gotquestions.org/true-religion.html, scroll to the
bottom of the article and then click on the "I have accepted Christ today"
button.
Recommended Resources: Faith Alone: The Evangelical Doctrine of Justification by
R.C. Sproul and Logos Bible Software.
Crafty Chamoun relied on network of
internal and external ties
April 11, 2014/By Mirella Hodeib /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Charismatic politician Camille Chamoun came to power in 1952 thanks to
backing he enjoyed from Lebanon’s powerful opposition and a strong network of
regional and international ties.
Soon after his election, Chamoun – a lawyer from the Chouf village of Deir al-Qamar
– turned against his local allies and agreed to sign controversial military
pacts with western powers. Observers argue that such pacts significantly
compromised Lebanon’s neutrality and implicated it in the regional tensions
going on at the time.
Although the start of his mandate brought unparalleled prosperity to Lebanon and
was often described as the “golden age,” the final years of Chamoun’s tenure
were mired by crisis and turbulence which culminated into what came to be known
as the 1958 crisis, Lebanon’s first ever civil conflict in the post-independence
era.
The miniature civil war pitted Chamoun against the Lebanese supporters of the
late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel-Nasser, when Chamoun refused to break ties
with Western powers in the aftermath of the 1956 Suez Crisis. The grudge against
Chamoun grew after his opponents accused him of siding with the Western-backed
Baghdad Pact established to confront Soviet Union influence in the Middle East.
Chamoun, who was a lawmaker since 1934 and who occupied several ministerial
posts since, rose to fame as part of the Patriotic Socialist Front, a bloc of
lawmakers and politicians which comprised figures such as Progressive Socialist
Party leader Kamal Jumblatt and National Bloc leader Raymond Eddeh.
The PSF had constituted the main nucleus of opposition against the rule of
President Bechara al-Khoury, whose second term was characterized by corruption,
financial scandals and nepotism.
Eventually, Khoury yielded to the pressures of the opposition, which had
declared an open general political strike, and submitted his resignation on
Sept. 18, 1952, three years ahead of the end of his second term. Some analysts –
such as Farid al-Khazen, writing in an article submitted to a 2011 conference on
Lebanese presidential elections organized by the Issam Fares Center for Lebanon
– argue that at the time of Chamoun’s election, foreign intervention was minimal
compared to the level of blatant intervention in the post-Taif Agreement era.
But others disagree.
According to historian Fawwaz Traboulsi, a key external factor – Lebanon’s
membership in Western military pacts – played a main role in Khoury’s downfall
and Chamoun’s rise to power. Khoury and his Prime Minister Riad al-Solh had
refused to join the so-called Pact for Collective Defense of the Mediterranean
against communism shepherded by the United States and Britain in addition to
France and Turkey.
In fact, Chamoun’s main contender in the presidential election of 1952 Hamid
Frangieh, himself a prominent member of the PSF, was in favor or Lebanon’s
neutrality. Contrary to PSF principles, Chamoun agreed to engage Lebanon in
Western pacts and kept his promise after his election on Sept. 23, 1952.
In “A History of Modern Lebanon,” Traboulsi wrote that the PSF charter that
Chamoun had committed himself to stipulated achieving Lebanese neutrality in
international affairs, administrative reform and curb abuses of power. “The
extent to which the new president did exactly the opposite of what he has
committed himself to do is quite amazing,” Traboulsi argued.
Chamoun’s election also set a precedent in Lebanese politics, whereby the shrewd
politician sought the support of Lebanon’s biggest neighbor Syria in the race to
the presidency.
Khazen wrote that Damascus has called on Lebanon’s Muslim leaders to back
Chamoun against Frangieh.
In his book, “Lebanon’s Presidents: How they made it?” journalist Ahmad
Zeineddine maintained that prior to his election Chamoun went on a hunting trip
to Syria, where he met with President Adib Shishakli. “Chamoun quickly realized
that Shishakli could help him win the support of Lebanese groups over which
Syria has influence,” Zeineddine wrote.
“Soon after, Beirut lawmakers and a considerable number of north Lebanon
lawmakers vowed allegiance to Chamoun thanks to pressure exerted by the Syrian
administration and the British ambassador to Beirut.”
The presidential chess game has begun
April 10, 2014/By Michael Young
The Daily Star
Samir Geagea has declared his candidacy for the Lebanese presidential election,
launching a thousand speculations. The Lebanese Forces leader has pushed his
allies into a corner, forcing them to support him. He feels that, even though he
may not win, the prospect of a Geagea victory remains far more credible than one
by Michel Aoun. But how true is that?
Geagea’s calculation is roughly as follows. He reckons that, with March 14 and
independent support, he would have well over 50 votes in his favor. With the
backing of Walid Jumblatt’s bloc, the Lebanese Forces leader would be able to
garner the 65 votes needed to win an election in a second round of voting. There
are two problems with this assessment: Geagea’s estimation of the votes he
already has seems quite optimistic and Walid Jumblatt’s backing is in now way
guaranteed, on the contrary.
One principle on which Geagea seems to be basing his calculations is that Aoun
cannot win a majority because his allies actually do not want him to win. That
may be true, but Aoun appears to have taken it into consideration. Two weeks ago
in an interview with Al-Mayadeen, the general announced that he would not stand
against Geagea, since, as he put it, “I am in competition with nobody.”
That statement seemed both ridiculous and arrogant: ridiculous, since what is an
election but a competition? And arrogant, because Aoun appeared to signal he
would only stand if he alone was the candidate – presumably of national consent.
In reality, the general was more cunning than that. He knows that if he and
Geagea run against each other, they will only cancel each other out, with
neither securing a majority. This would facilitate the emergence of a compromise
candidate. Aoun seeks to avoid such a scenario, and Geagea, who also knows the
score, is hoping to build momentum for his candidacy before Aoun has had time to
react effectively.
What are Aoun’s options? If he is not a candidate and sees momentum shifting
toward Geagea, the general, with his allies, may boycott the election session
and prevent a quorum. We would then have a situation that Aoun could exploit to
present himself as the only person capable of breaking the ensuing deadlock.
However, a policy of blackmail would almost certainly alienate March 14, and the
Future Movement in particular. In addition, it would be perceived as an effort
by Hezbollah (since Hezbollah would be as much compelled to back Aoun as Future
to endorse Geagea) to impose its man on Lebanon.
In the end, much depends on what Walid Jumblatt decides. Geagea may feel that
the Druze leader is more inclined to lean toward him than toward Aoun, but that
may be a miscalculation. Jumblatt prefers that neither man become president, but
today he has a more pressing problem that he needs to resolve, namely to ensure
that the parliamentary elections next November are held on the basis of the 1960
law – or any law that perpetuates his domination over the Aley and Shouf
districts.
If Jumblatt loses his supremacy in these districts, he is politically finished.
And he knows that Aoun is much more amenable to the 1960 law than Geagea,
because it has twice given him large Christian majorities in Parliament. Geagea,
in contrast, has no intention of allowing the 1960 law to stand, because it has
marginalized the Lebanese Forces electorally. That is why last year he was so
adamant in pushing for the so-called Orthodox proposal, which would have given
the Lebanese Forces a much larger share of Christian seats in parliament.
Jumblatt’s strategy will be principally determined by the prospects for a return
to the 1960 election law. Aoun doubtless knows this and will try to use it to
get Jumblatt’s votes. But the Druze leader will not give in easily. His
preference is for a more consensual figure, and a Maronite who will not
challenge him in the mountains. That’s why Jumblatt may prefer to allow an
election delay, perhaps through a March 8-Aoun boycott, to give time for a
consensual figure to emerge, or, conversely, to drive up his price for backing a
candidate meeting his conditions.
The irony is that Geagea’s candidacy may benefit Aoun. By turning the election
into a choice between the Lebanese Forces leader and Aoun, Geagea may force
those on the fence to take sides. And there are no assurances Geagea will win,
as Jumblatt’s case illustrates. Geagea believes that several independents will
vote for him; but it is also true that those who prefer a compromise could vote
against him if offered no choice.
Aoun has alienated many people in the past nine years, especially in the Sunni
community. But Geagea, despite his best efforts, has not been able to shake his
past in the Lebanese Forces. Even among Sunnis, he should not overestimate his
popularity. Geagea, like Aoun, is something of a headache to his Muslim allies:
a candidate expected to disturb the atmosphere of conciliation that seems to be
prevailing these days.
Aoun and Geagea have high expectations, maybe too high. Neither can be ruled out
when it comes to the presidency, but in the coming weeks most of the
non-Christian political forces will look for ways to circumvent them. If that
fails, the onus will be on the centrists, Walid Jumblatt above all, to lean one
way or the other. That’s when the real bargaining will begin.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling
Change the course
April 11, 2014/ The Daily Star
The Syrian government is determined to press ahead with a presidential election,
especially after the latest announcement that candidacies for the “race” will
begin to be accepted later this month.
It apparently makes no difference to the regime whether the election will take
place in parts of the country that are held by the rebels or whether millions of
displaced Syrians will be able to vote. The only sure thing is that President
Bashar Assad will receive a “mandate” to rule for another seven years.
Damascus doesn’t care whether the election will affect the Geneva negotiation
process, because the regime’s policy is clear and unambiguous: re-elect the
president and crush the rebels militarily.
In contrast, the rebels still suffer from a lack of coordination as they wait
for foreign backers to provide them with “sophisticated arms;” the opposition is
in disarray, unable to inspire confidence among Syrians inside and outside the
country.
As things stand, the regime is poised to continue 2014 with a string of
political and military achievements, having adhered to a clear policy of victory
at any cost.
For the opposition, it’s time to listen to the many Syrians who are demanding a
change of course. It’s time to admit that the opposition has been going about
things the wrong way, whether this has to do with managing military matters,
putting forward a political message, or getting much-needed humanitarian
assistance to war-stricken areas.
If the leaders of the opposition are unable to learn from their mistakes, then
their future, and the future of Syria, will be very bleak.
Study: Iran’s military capabilities do
not match its ambitions
By ARIEL BEN SOLOMON /J.Post
LAST UPDATED: 04/11/2014
Despite Tehran’s efforts to export its Islamic revolutionary ideology, history
shows lack of follow-through. The Iranian regime is cautious about using
its military capabilities because they do not match its ambitions, a new study
says. Despite Tehran’s efforts to export its Islamic revolutionary ideology,
history shows that the lack of following through with its belligerent rhetoric
“is due as much to experience as to realism about its own limits,” according to
Shahram Chubin. Chubin is a nonresident senior associate at the Nuclear Policy
Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace organization and the
former director of studies at the Geneva Center for Security Policy. “But where
Iran excels is in the more subtle areas of indirect diplomacy, menace and
intrigue,” he said.
For example, Chubin told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday that regarding the war
in Syria, “Iran started slowly and then found it was pushing against an open
door and stepped up its activities once it saw that the US would not react.” In
the article, titled “Is Iran a Military Threat?” and published in the Survival:
Global Politics and Strategy journal, Chubin stated that Iran had little war
experience in the past 150 years, until the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, which it
helped provoke but did not start. Iran has no strong military tradition and has
focused on internal security and stability, he argued.
“Tehran underestimated the nationalism of Iraqi Shi’ites and overestimated the
Iranian people’s willingness to sacrifice,” he said of the Iran-Iraq War.
“The missile war on Iranian cities generated much terror, bringing the horrors
of war home. War weariness, criticism of the conduct of the war and the
declining number of volunteers threatened to become a political liability for
the regime,” he added. As a result, “this domestic dimension of the war was an
important factor in the government’s decision to ‘drink the cup of poison’, as
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini characterized the decision to end the war,” he said.
While Tehran claimed the war a victory, it “taught the regime several important
lessons, the first of which was, having been caught unprepared and in disarray
militarily, Iran would henceforth emphasize deterrence and readiness.” Chubin
went on to explain that the wars in Iraq in 1991 and 2003 demonstrated US
military superiority as well as American weakness at dealing with an insurgency
in built-up areas. A nuclear capability could offset this disadvantage. Brandon
Friedman, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University and a researcher at its Moshe Dayan
Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, responded to this thesis. He told
the Post that Chubin, whose work he greatly respects, overlooks the concept that
Iran’s movement towards a nuclear weapons program is creating a security dilemma
whereby Israel would lose its ability to maintain its military edge in the
region. “If Israel wants to protect its own security, it cannot afford to allow
for this possibility,” he said. Friedman said, “It was Iran that decided to
invade Iraq instead of accepting a cease-fire and that Chubin’s statement in the
study that ‘Iran’s rhetoric and behavior can, of course, be off-putting,’ is a
vast understatement.” Furthermore, Friedman argued the idea that Iran is
essentially a non-aggressive actor and is looking to implement some kind of
forward defense overlooks the point that from Israel, as well as other regional
countries’ perspectives, the Iranian regime is seen as an aggressive offensive
actor.
Chubin’s main point, that Tehran’s military capabilities do not match its
ambitions is “precisely why it wants nuclear weapons, it doesn’t have the
conventional power to carry out its ambitions and nuclear weapons would
instantly make its ambitions realizable,” said Friedman.
Bashar al-Assad: a costly card for Iran?
Friday, 11 April 2014
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiyia
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/04/11/Bashar-al-Assad-a-costly-card-for-Iran-.html
Recent statements by top Iranian officials appear to divulge the Islamic of
Republic of Iran’s frustration and dissatisfaction with the Assad apparatuses’
inability to thoroughly crack down on various rebel groups and oppositional
fronts, and to regain full control of the state.
Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs,
pointed out in a recent interview: “We aren’t seeking to have Bashar al-Assad
remain president for life…” The Islamic Republic has been instrumental in
preventing the Syrian government’s economy from collapsing. Tehran extended a
$3.6 billion credit line to Damascus. The credit line enables Damascus to buy
oil products from Tehran and assist in shoring up the Syrian currency (Pound),
which has significantly devalued in the last two years.
The Assad government lost its daily revenue of approximately $7 million from oil
exports after the U.S. and European countries banned oil exports from Damascus.
Moreover, Damascus lost an estimated $7 billion of revenue a year from tourism.
According to Iranian state media this week, Tehran has also delivered 30,000
tons of food supplies to Syria on Tuesday in order to assist the Syrian
government in dealing with food shortages created by the civil war. Before the
conflict, Syria had the capability of producing most of its domestic food
necessities, as well as exporting a considerable amount of wheat. Nevertheless,
according to the U.N. World Food Program (WFP), Syria will hit a record low this
year by producing 1.7 to 2 million tons of wheat.
Although, Abdollahian insists that Iran’s aid to Syria is limited to
humanitarian goods, this falsehood, duplicity, and dishonesty is evident in
every facet. In addition to the extension of billions of dollars in credit and
economic assistance, the Islamic Republic has been playing a pivotal function
through its proxy Hezbollah as well as the Quds Forces— a special forces unit of
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps— to provide military, intelligence,
geopolitical, strategic and advisory aid to ensure that Assad government
retained its power over the last three years of conflict.
Contradictions: Hezbollah, Assad’s apparatuses, and Iran
The recent announcement by Iranian officials arguing that the Islamic Republic
does not wish to see President Bashar al-Assad stay in power indefinitely and
that they are potentially open to other alternatives, comes at a time when
Iranian leaders have evidently recognized that the Syrian oppositional groups,
revolutionaries, and rebel groups will not surrender to Assad’s forces any time
soon.
While Iranian leaders continue to support Assad’s government economically,
Iran’s domestic economy has inflicted itself with high levels of inflation
The country is divided into insurgent-controlled areas and government-controlled
cities. Whenever the rebel groups are defeated in one part, they regroup, revise
their plan, and prepare to fight the regime in another region.
Consequently, from the Iranian leaders’ perspectives, this platform conveys that
the Syrian conflict can be an ongoing war for many years to come. If the Islamic
Republic stands for Assad totally, it finds itself obliged to pay billions of
dollars to the Syrian government every year and provide additional military,
intelligence, and advisory assistance, with no guarantee of reimbursement or
compensation.
The costs of the economic support might not be paid back as the two scenarios
are unveiled: either Assad’s government will ultimately collapse or the war will
be a protracted conflict similar to the Lebanese 15-year civil war from 1975 to
1990.
Although the Syrian government and leaders of Hezbollah are offering differing
signals from the Islamic Republic, Iranian leaders view the situation from
another prism.
Contrary to Iran, the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and Syrian
leaders declared that the Assad government does not face any threat from
oppositional groups anymore. Nasrallah said: “The danger of the Syrian regime’s
fall has ended.”
While Hezbollah and the Syrian government attempt to project the picture that
tranquility and peace has come back to Syria (in order to reclaim their lost
popularity at home), Tehran’s view and message appears to diverge from this
because of its primary role in holding the economic burden.
Economic desperation of the Islamic Republic
While Iranian leaders continue to support Assad’s government economically,
Iran’s domestic economy has inflicted itself with high levels of inflation
(approximately 35 percent), a high rate of unemployment, loss in oil export
revenues, economic mismanagement of several administrations, negative economic
growth, and its stock market has been in decline.
The Assad government’s weakness and incapability to wholly crack down on the
oppositional groups and stabilize the country, has been a critical economic
burden and heavy load for the Iranian government, while there is no final
warranty that Assad might score the final victory, win over, and pay back the
debt. Iranian leaders’ ongoing economic, geopolitical, military, intelligence
and advisory support for Assad has additionally ratcheted up the tension between
the Islamic Republic and other Arab countries in the region as well as other
world powers. This unconditional support has also worked to tarnish Iran’s
popularity and legitimacy among ordinary people in the region, and domestically.
As Syria has become an economic burden and costly card for Tehran, Iranian
leaders are desperate to find alternative options that would still serve their
geostrategic, geopolitical, and hegemonic ambitions in the region.
In the next few months, Iranian leaders’ tactical shift would entail their
outreach to other powers and Arab countries in the region. Nevertheless, it is
paramount to comprehend the notion that although Tehran might agree to a plan
where President Bashar al-Assad might not be the head of the state, this does
not imply that the Islamic Republic would accept comprehensive change in the
Syrian state formation.
As Abdollahian stated, although Tehran does not see Assad as staying in power
indefinitely, they also do not accept a plan where extremists replace him. He
pointed out, “we do not subscribe to the idea of using extremist forces and
terrorism to topple Assad and the Syrian government.” Retaining the current
state configuration, through an Alawite-dominated framework, would still be a
fundamental and non-negotiable tenet for the Islamic Republic.
___________________________