LCCC ENGLISH DAILY
NEWS BULLETIN
September 03/2013
Bible Quotation for today/Come,
everyone who thirsts, to the waters!
Isaiah 55/1-13: "Come, everyone who thirsts, to the
waters! Come, he who has no money, buy, and eat! Yes,
come, buy wine and milk without money and without price.
Why do you spend money for that which is not bread? and
your labor for that which doesn’t satisfy? listen
diligently to me, and eat you that which is good, and
let your soul delight itself in fatness. Turn your ear,
and come to me; hear, and your soul shall live: and I
will make an everlasting covenant with you, even the
sure mercies of David. Behold, I have given him
for a witness to the peoples, a leader and commander to
the peoples. Behold, you shall call a nation that
you don’t know; and a nation that didn’t know you shall
run to you, because of Yahweh your God, and for the Holy
One of Israel; for he has glorified you.” Seek
Yahweh while he may be found; call you on him while he
is near: let the wicked forsake his way, and the
unrighteous man his thoughts; and let him return to
Yahweh, and he will have mercy on him; and to our God,
for he will abundantly pardon “For my thoughts are not
your thoughts, neither are your ways my ways,” says
Yahweh. “For as the heavens are higher than the
earth, so are my ways higher than your ways, and my
thoughts than your thoughts. For as the rain comes down
and the snow from the sky, and doesn’t return there, but
waters the earth, and makes it bring forth and bud, and
gives seed to the sower and bread to the eater; so shall
my word be that goes forth out of my mouth: it shall not
return to me void, but it shall accomplish that which I
please, and it shall prosper in the thing I sent it to
do. For you shall go out with joy, and be led forth with
peace: the mountains and the hills shall break forth
before you into singing; and all the trees of the fields
shall clap their hands. Instead of the thorn shall
come up the fir tree; and instead of the brier shall
come up the myrtle tree: and it shall be to Yahweh for a
name, for an everlasting sign that shall not be cut
off.”
God is Sovereign: Life often feels confusing. If we're
experiencing a tragedy or great turmoil, we might begin
to doubt that God is in control. But these words remind
us that the Lord is sovereign ... even in our pain, even
in our troubles. Through it all, his love is
transforming us, perfecting us, completing us. James
MacDonald in Gripped by the Greatness of God, explains
it this way: "God's sovereignty is first painful, then
slowly powerful, and over much time seen to be
profitable. It is to be studied with great sensitivity
for the experiences of others and deep reverence for the
One who controls the outcomes of every matter in the
universe."/
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
In Syria, Western strikes
will herald Assad’s fall/By: Abdul Rahman
Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat/September 03/13
The Last Israelis/By: Noah
Beck/FrontPageMagazine.com/September 03/13
Linking Targets to Political
Objectives in Syria/Chandler P. Atwood and Michael
Knights/Washington Institute/September 03/13
A Wake-Up Call/By: Mshari
Al-Zaydi /Asharq Alawsat/September 03/13
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources/September 03/13
Analysis: Is congressional
green light for Syria strikes necessary?
Damascus, Hizballah jack up
threats on Israel in absence of Obama-Netanyahu
coordination on Syria
Obama assures
Netanyahu on Iran’
Syria's Assad: 'The Middle East
is a powder keg and the fire is approaching'
Gantz: IDF in high state of
readiness
Iran official warns against
strike on Syria
Syria: Attack will engulf
region, threaten U.S. interests
US lawmakers warn of
catastrophe if Syria not hit
Syria has asked UN to 'prevent
any aggression': agency
Iran’s Boroujerdi: Strike on
Syria could backfire, harm U.S., Israel
Obama, McCain to meet on Syria
response
Rival camps’ Syria bets
heighten tensions
Kuwait advises citizens to
leave Lebanon
Iran, Russia advise Assad to
transfer chemical stockpile to Tehran - to avert US
attack
Anatomy of a potential Syria
military operation: Weapons targets defenses
Insight: As Obama blinks on
Syria, Israel, Saudis make common cause
'Disappointed' Syria
Opposition Thinks U.S. Congress Will OK Strike, Damascus
Says Obama 'Hesitant, Confused'
Arab League Urges U.N., World
to Take 'Deterrent' Steps on Syria
Scornful Syria hails 'historic
American retreat' as Obama hesitates
Obama and aides confront
skeptical Congress on Syria strike
Syria opposition says Assad
deploying human shields for air strikes
Canada Condemns Latest Violence
in Iraq
Syria Opposition Chief Urges
Arabs to Back Western Strikes
Conflict in Syria.In Syria,
Anger and Mockery as Obama Delays
Morsi to Stand Trial for
'Inciting Murder'
Copt Killed by Suspected
Islamists in Egypt's Sinai
Bahia Hariri 'Returns' to
the 'People' More than LL525 Million
Sleiman to meet Hollande over
refugee fund
Hezbollah mobilises ahead of
potential US Syria strike
Hezbollah warns March 14 not to
wager on strike against Syria
Jumblatt reorganizing his
business affairs
Syrians arrest Lebanese for
fighting with Nusra
Warrants issued for suspects in
Tripoli blasts
Abu Faour’s Riyadh visit yields
no results
Despite risks, security
measures still poor
Document reveals CIA job
applicants linked to Hamas, al-Qaida, Hezbollah
Analysis: Is congressional green light for Syria strikes
necessary?
By YONAH JEREMY BOB 09/03/2013/J.Post
US President Barack Obama’s choice to go to Congress for approval of his
decision to take military action against Syria is just another chapter in a
never-ending battle between American presidents and Congress. The fray is over
the question: can a president use military force solely on his own authority?
Though the controversy could be traced back to the founding of the US, the
modern fight dates back to the 1973 War Powers Resolution passed by Congress in
the shadow of the Vietnam War to give a concrete way to hold presidents back
from getting too deep into an unpopular war without transparency and checks from
Congress.
NATO secretary-general warns of 'danger' if world does not react to Syria
firmlyObama courts Senate opponents of Syria strikeThe resolution allows a
president to take unilateral military action without Congress formally declaring
war. But more importantly, it requires the president to report on the action
within 48 hours and to withdraw forces between 60-90 days after the action has
started, if by 60 days the president has not obtained Congressional approval.
Every American president has stated their belief that the resolution is an
unconstitutional restriction on their inherent powers as Commander- in-Chief.
The US Constitution does not specifically list a presidential power to order
military action short of total war without Congressional authorization.
Still, every president has said that because the president is Commander-in-Chief
entrusted with defending and securing the country, by definition, the executive
must possess the power to order such actions on his own in the face of threats
that move faster than Congress can operate.
Congress has claimed the resolution is constitutional on the basis of its
authority to declare war, to legislate all issues necessary and proper to the
running of the country, its power over funding the military and its role in
maintaining the armed forces (the Constitution does not mention an air force,
but everyone agrees that its intent would have included an air force in the
modern context).
Former presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton fought over application of the
resolution and both of them flouted its restraints where they believed
necessary.
Reagan clandestinely aided the Contras militarily in Nicaragua in 1985-1986,
while Clinton ignored Congress in bombing Kosovo in 1999.
Both had fights over the issue, and members of Congress have sued presidents,
most notably in the 2000 Campbell case, where a US court said that the issue is
beyond the authority of the courts to decide, since courts are not equipped to
define “war” versus “hostilities,” who started a war and other critical
questions.
So the courts will not decide the issue.
Obama himself fought in 2011 over his military action in Libya when it continued
for more than 60 days without consulting Congress.
Congress “rebuked” Obama 268-145 for the lack of consultation, but Obama said
that at that point he had handed running of the armed conflict over to NATO, so
that the 60 days no longer applied.
Presidents have sought Congressional authorization for military action as George
H.W. Bush sought for the 1991 Iraq War and George W. Bush sought for the 2003
Iraq War, but both undertook other actions for which they did not seek
authorization or were accused of being misleading in seeking authorization.
In general, like many conflicts between different branches of government, the
politics of the moment cannot be separated from the legal disputes.
While some have said that Obama may have a stronger affinity to constitutional
limitations on presidential powers as a former law professor, the hard facts are
that where military action is popular and considered critical to self-defense,
presidents feel less pressure to consult and Congressional anger at being
ignored is not likely to register with the public.
Where action is unpopular, as in Syria, and the basis for action is more
amorphous than self-defense, such as to send a message about chemical weapons
use or for humanitarian reasons, presidents, whether Obama or others, are more
likely to feel the political and legal pressures to consult Congress, even as
they say that the consultation is voluntary and unnecessary.
Damascus, Hizballah jack up threats on Israel in absence of
Obama-Netanyahu coordination on Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report September 2, 2013/
Notwithstanding unconfirmed claims by officials in Jerusalem, US President
Barack Obama did not forewarn Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu about his
decision Saturday, Aug. 31, to abort the imminent military strike on Syria and
turn the decision over to Congress. This is reported by debkafile’s intelligence
and Washington sources. Neither did the US president offer Netanyahu any
assurances that Syria was not Iran and the US president stood by his commitments
on Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
Monday, Sept. 9, in the wake of the soft soap pouring out of Jerusalem, senior
IDF circles were concerned by the unrealistic mood of the country on the eve of
the New Year festival as though Israel and the US were fully coordinated on
Syria and Hizballah and the danger of Syria repeating its chemical attack – this
time on Israel – could be discounted. The officers explained that the former
close cooperation between US and Israel military chiefs was no longer a factor.
“It should be understood,” said a high-ranking source, “that the brakes applied
suddenly Saturday night on a ready-to-go US strike against Syria was a watershed
event in US-Israeli military relations and a game-changer for the Middle East at
large”
President Obama’s shock action, at the very moment that four regional armies of
Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, were all at peak tension for the attack
to begin, will leave a lasting scar on the region for years to come. The finger
was about to pull the trigger when it was yanked off.”Informed Israeli sources
found confirmation for their concern in an article published in the Atlantic
Council of Sept. 1 by Fred Hof, a close observer of the Bashar Assad persona and
a veteran shaper of US policy on Syria. He wrote: “The events of the past ten
days suggest that there was no administration forethought to the possibility of
a major chemical incident in Syria; there was no plan in place to respond to a
major chemical attack by the regime.” This view was echoed by the two Republican
senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham after they met the president Monday.
They saw no coherent, “sustainable” plan of action against Assad other than a
few missile strikes.
Those Israel sources found those impressions especially disquieting, coming as
they did after nearly two years in which the US, Israel and Jordan had worked
closely to prepare for the contingency of a large-scale chemical attack by the
Assad regime.
During that time, Israel was persuaded by Washington to ignore 14 limited poison
gas attacks in the outgoing year and suppress the information. But after the
massive attack of Aug. 21 on the eastern outskirts of Damascus and the deaths of
more than 1,400 Syrians, Israel is no longer willing to look away from the
threat to its own national security just 100 kilometers away – especially since
the Obama administration turned his back on the contingency plans prepared
jointly for this event.
Monday, Sept. 2, a French government official cited an intelligence report
showing there had been "massive use of chemical agents" in the attack coming on
Aug. 21 from government-controlled areas "at a level of sophistication that can
only belong to the regime."
debkafile’s Israeli sources add that since Obama stalled the US attack on Syria
Saturday, the threats from Syria and Hizballah to attack Israel have gained
momentum. They focus on the weeks taken up by congressional deliberations on US
action. Those threats were at the front of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s mind
Monday, when he phrased his New Year greeting to the country: “If anyone is
contemplating harming us during the festival, he should know what awaits him,”
he said.
IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz emphasized in his holiday message that
Israel’s armed forces can be counted on to guard the nation against any danger.
This struck a quite different note from the anodyne assurances of close
cooperation with Washington against the Syrian peril coming from his office
earlier. It sounded more as though the prime minister had reason to believe that
Israel and the IDF would very soon be called upon to ward off a fast-approaching
peril.
Israel is not the only object of Syrian threats. In an interview published
Monday by the French Le Figaro, Bashar Assad warned France it will be “an enemy
of Syria” if it takes part in military intervention. Foreign military action
could ignite a wider regional conflict, said the Syrian ruler. "Everyone will
lose control of the situation when the powder keg explodes. Chaos and extremism
will spread.”
U.S. lawmakers warn of catastrophe if Syria not hit
September 03, 2013/Agencies
WASHINGTON/BEIRUT: Two U.S. Republicans foreign policy hawks warned Monday that
a vote by Congress against President Barack Obama’s proposal for military force
in Syria would be catastrophic, as President Bashar Assad warned any potential
strikes risk triggering a regional war. “If the Congress were to reject a
resolution like this after the president of the United States has already
committed to action, the consequences would be catastrophic,” Sen. John McCain
said after a meeting with the president at the White House. McCain, a
Republican, said he was encouraged by the meeting but that there was “a long way
to go” to get the resolution passed.
McCain said that he and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham – who was also in the
meeting with Obama – favored changes in the resolution that would broaden it to
make it more than just a response to the use of chemical weapons by Assad’s
government.
“We do want an articulation of a goal that over time will degrade Bashar Assad’s
capabilities, increase and upgrade the capabilities of the Free Syrian Army and
the free Syrian government so they can increase the momentum on the
battlefield,” McCain said.
Both have argued that Obama must oust Assad from power and seek to change the
course of a civil war that has killed more than 110,000. And both have
threatened to vote against Obama’s authorization if the military plan doesn’t
seek to shift the momentum of the civil war toward the rebels. Despite this, the
White House said Monday it was prepared to rework language to address concerns
from some lawmakers who fear a strike could open the door to possible use of
ground troops or eventual attacks on other countries. The U.S. said it has proof
that the Assad regime is behind attacks that Washington claims killed at least
1,429 people, including more than 400 children, in a chemical attack in
Damascus.
Assad told French newspaper Le Figaro that Syria has challenged the U.S. and
France to provide proof to support their allegations that Damascus has used
chemical weapons, but that the leaders of both countries “have been incapable of
doing that, including before their own peoples.”If the U.S. and France decide to
strike, Assad said “everyone will lose control of the situation.”
“Chaos and extremism will spread. The risk of a regional war exists,” Assad
added. Asked whether France, which has been a staunch supporter of the
opposition, has become an enemy of Syria, Assad said that whoever contributes
“financially and militarily to terrorists is an enemy of the Syrian people.”
“The French people are not our enemy, but the policy of their government is
hostile to the Syrian people. Insofar as French government policy is hostile to
the Syrian people, this state will be its enemy,” he said.
As the U.S. has been presenting its case to a wary public, the French government
Monday published a nine-page intelligence synopsis that concluded that the
Syrian regime launched an attack on Aug. 21 that involved a “massive use of
chemical agents.” The report also said that Assad government could carry out
similar strikes in the future.
French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said there would be no vote during
Wednesday’s parliamentary debate on the crisis. Russia brushed aside Western
evidence of an alleged Syrian regime role. “What our American, British and
French partners showed us in the past and have showed just recently is
absolutely unconvincing,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday at
the country’s top diplomatic school. “And when you ask for more detailed proof
they say all of this is classified so we cannot show this to you.”
Lavrov said “there was nothing specific there, no geographic coordinates, no
names, no proof that the tests were carried out by the professionals.” He did
not describe the tests further. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed Monday
to send a delegation of Russian lawmakers to the U.S. to discuss the situation
in Syria with members of Congress. Two top Russian legislators suggested that to
Putin, saying polls have shown little support among Americans for armed
intervention in Syria to punish its regime for an alleged chemical weapons
attack.On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. received new
physical evidence in the form of blood and hair samples that show sarin gas was
used in the Aug. 21 attack. It was not immediately clear whether that evidence
had been shared with Russia.
U.N. chemical inspectors toured the stricken areas last week, collecting
biological and soil samples, but it is not clear when they will present their
findings. There was a brief lull in the intensity of shelling during the
inspectors Damascus visit, but fierce fighting has now restarted in the city.
Nearly 90 rebels were killed near the Syrian capital over the past 48 hours, a
watchdog said Monday, as fighting raged ahead of possible foreign military
action against the regime.
At least 29 of those killed, among them non-Syrians, died in an army ambush
Monday in Adra, northeast of Damascus, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said.
The activist group said security forces were also among those killed and
wounded, without giving numbers.
Despite the political wrangling in Paris and Washington over intervention, USS
Nimitz aircraft carrier and four other ships in its strike group moved into the
Red Sea early Monday, U.S. defense officials said, describing the move as
“prudent planning” in case the ships are needed for military action.
The officials said the Nimitz entered the Red Sea around 6 a.m. EDT (10:00 GMT),
but the strike group had not received any orders to move into the Mediterranean,
where five U.S. destroyers and an amphibious ship remain poised for possible
cruise missile strikes against Syria.
Simultaneously Russia is sending a reconnaissance ship to the eastern
Mediterranean, Interfax news agency reported.
The reconnaissance ship left Russia’s naval base in the Ukrainian Black Sea port
of Sevastopol late Sunday on a mission “to gather current information in the
area of the escalating conflict,” the Interfax report quoted an unidentified
military source as saying.
Hezbollah mobilises ahead of potential US Syria strike
September 02, 2013/Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah group, a close ally of the Syrian regime, is
redeploying its forces ahead of possible US strikes on Damascus, according to
witnesses in Lebanon. The reports come as the daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to
both Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, said on Monday that the group had "called
on all its officers and members to man their positions."
Residents speaking to AFP in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre said there
appeared to be a general mobilisation of the group's members, even if such a
movement was not being publicly discussed.
Many Hezbollah fighters have disappeared from local villages in the last five
days, though strict security measures around group headquarters and checkpoints
have remained in place, residents said.
The situation is the same in the Bekaa Valley of eastern Lebanon, a stronghold
of the organisation.
Residents said fighters, including gunners, had left their regular posts, and
switched off their mobile phones to ensure they could not be traced.
In the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, also considered a Hezbollah
bastion, teenagers have replaced more experienced fighters at checkpoints
inspecting cars entering the district. A Hezbollah spokesman declined to comment
on the reported redeployment of the group's forces. On Monday, Al-Akhbar also
reported that the "Syrian army has mobilised units that have not participated
until now in the conflict." "It has established an operations room... with
Hezbollah and the units in charge of missiles are at an unprecedented level of
alert," the daily added.
"The Islamic resistance (Hezbollah) has called on all its officers and members
to man their positions," the newspaper reported. The reported mobilisation comes
after US President Barack Obama said he favoured the use of military action
against Syria in response to an alleged chemical weapons attack in the suburbs
of Damascus.
But Obama has said he will seek approval from Congress for any strikes in
response to the attack, for which the Syrian regime denies responsibility.
Hezbollah is a close ally of the Syrian regime, and has dispatched fighters to
battle alongside Syrian troops and against rebels seeking to overthrow President
Bashar al-Assad. Wadah Charara, an expert on the group, says it commands around
30,000 fighters, including 10,000 with extensive combat experience.
Between 800 and 1,2000 Hezbollah fighters are thought to have taken part in the
Syrian regime's battle to recapture the town of Qusayr in central Homs province
earlier this year.
Sleiman to meet Hollande over refugee fund
September 03, 2013 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman will meet with French President Francois
Hollande to discuss the overall situation in the region and the establishment of
a refugee fund this month. The details will be discussed when Sleiman heads for
France on Sept. 6, leading a Lebanese delegation for the Games of La
Francophonie in the southern city of Nice this month, sources close to Sleiman
told The Daily Star .
Sleiman’s visit will cover a series of meetings with the other participating
countries’ heads of state, most notably Hollande. Both leaders are set to
discuss a number of regional concerns, particularly the Syrian conflict in light
of France’s stance in favor of a potential strike against the Syrian government.
Hollande has expressed his will to support the United States to punish the
Syrian regime over its alleged use of chemical weapons. The meeting will also
cover the implications of the Syrian conflict in Lebanon, especially in terms of
the large influx of refugees to the country, as their numbers have now reached
more than 40 percent of Lebanon’s population, as well as the accompanying
political, security and social complications.
Sleiman’s discussions with Hollande, slated to take place on the eve of the
games, will mark an important milestone in managing the refugee crisis as it
will be devoted to establishing a fund which France had previously called for.
The meeting will be dedicated to discussing methods of fortifying Lebanon and
providing it with much-needed aid to manage the growing refugee population,
which is expected to rise not only in Lebanon, but Turkey and Jordan as well.
Lebanon is set to benefit from the outcome of the meeting, as the fund will help
the country carry the burden of hosting refugees, which has already taken a toll
on security and politics. There are currently 700,000-plus registered refugees
in Lebanon.
Iranian official warns U.S.-led strike will engulf entire region
September 03, 2013/ By Hussein Dakroub The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A senior Iranian official warned Monday that a U.S.-led military strike
on Syria would engulf the entire region and threaten American and Israeli
interests.
The statement by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of the Iranian parliamentary
committee for national security and foreign policy, was the latest in a series
of stern warnings issued by Iranian and Russian officials against a possible
Western military strike on Syria to punish the regime over its alleged use of
chemical weapons.
“We think that self-restraint shown so far by U.S. President Barack Obama, this
American approach, serves America’s interests on the one hand, and the interests
of the Zionist entity’s security on the other, because any political
miscalculation in this regard could negatively backfire on the situation in the
region as a whole,” Boroujerdi told reporters following talks with Speaker Nabih
Berri at the latter’s residence in Ain al-Tineh.
Boroujerdi spoke in Farsi and his remarks were translated into Arabic by an
interpreter. The Iranian official arrived in Beirut Monday from Damascus to
brief Lebanese officials on the conflict in Syria and discuss its repercussions
on Lebanon. Boroujerdi, who issued a similar warning a day earlier during a trip
to Syria where he met with President Bashar Assad, also said that the U.S.
Congress should “bow to the will of the American people and take the right
decision to put a brake to the American military approach against Syria.”
“We think that the American public is sensitive toward and is opposed to any
military aggression against Syria given the failed U.S. military experiences in
Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said.
Last week, Obama said he would seek the authorization of Congress for a military
strike on Syria over its alleged use of chemical weapons.
Obama has accused the regime of using poisonous gas on Syrian citizens on
several occasions this year including the Aug. 21 attack which U.S. intelligence
says killed over 1,400 people in a Damascus suburb.
Boroujerdi said his talks with Assad focused on three main issues: defense of
the resistance and Syria as a major pillar in the resistance axis, Iran’s strong
and absolute opposition to any foreign military action against Syria, and its
total condemnation of the use of chemical weapons “because this constituted a
great danger to world and regional peace.”He said that during his visit to
Damascus he found daily life was normal, while the morale of Syrian officials,
including Assad, was high.
The Iranian official also met with Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam and
several parliamentarians.
“We presented a detailed report about the results of our official visit to Syria
and the important meetings we had with President Assad, the parliament speaker,
the prime minister and the foreign minister,” Boroujerdi told reporters after
talks with Salam at the latter’s residence in Mseitbeh.
Boroujerdi said he had affirmed Iran’s support for Syria, describing Tehran’s
key Arab ally as “the principal foundation and the vital pillar in the
resistance axis in the region.” “We informed Salam of Iran’s firm opposition to
any form of foreign military aggression against Syria,” he said.
Salam and Boroujerdi also discussed bilateral relations and expressed hope that
a Lebanese government would be formed.
“We hope that the obstacles still facing the formation of a new government under
Salam are eliminated because this matter serves the interest of the Lebanese,”
he said.
The Iranian official also voiced his country’s support for Lebanon’s stability
and national unity.
“As you know the Islamic Republic of Iran has always affirmed its principled
stance in supporting national unity as well as sovereignty, calm and stability
in this brotherly country because we think that this matter greatly serves
regional security and stability,” he said.
Boroujerdi will Tuesday meet with President Michel Sleiman, caretaker Prime
Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour.
Boroujerdi also held a meeting with Lebanon’s foreign affairs parliamentary
committee headed by MP Abdel-Latif Zein. The talks, attended by lawmakers Nawaf
Musawi, Yassine Jaber, Joseph Maalouf and Khodr Habib, touched on the
repercussions of the Syrian conflict on Lebanon, particularly in terms of
security.
Last week, the head of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard warned that a U.S.
strike would trigger “reactions beyond” Syria and bolster extremism. And Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said an attack on Syria would be a
“disaster” for the entire region.
Abu Faour visit to Riyadh yields no Cabinet results
September 03, 2013/By Hasan Lakkis The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A meeting between caretaker Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour and
senior Saudi officials bore no fruit, political sources said Monday, further
prolonging the current impasse over the formation of a new government. Political
sources told The Daily Star that the talks “did not yield any results regarding
the formation of a new Cabinet.”
Abu Faour returned to Beirut from Riyadh Monday after holding talks with Saudi
officials about recent regional developments, including Syria and its
repercussions in Lebanon. Upon arrival, he immediately debriefed Progressive
Socialist Party head MP Walid Jumblatt of what had transpired.
Abu Faour’s regularly visits Saudi Arabia as an envoy of the PSP.
The sources added that the caretaker minister, who is scheduled to attend a
conference in Geneva Wednesday, might also visit France to meet former Prime
Minister Saad Hariri in Nice to discuss matters related to the Cabinet formation
with him.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati also held talks with Saudi officials, as
he met with Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awad Asiri at the Grand Serail,
where they discussed issues of mutual interest.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to break the impasse, Patriarch Beshara Rai revealed
that the Maronite Church was also making contacts with various Lebanese
political groups to resolve the political crisis.
Rai’s comments came a few days after Speaker Nabih Berri announced an initiative
to solve the Cabinet deadlock through National Dialogue.
Rai voiced hope that politicians respond to the calls for dialogue and
reconciliation, during a Mass in the Jbeil village of Dfoun.
Rai stressed the need “to safeguard Lebanon, the National Pact and the
coexistence guaranteed by it.”
“Efforts are underway with all politicians to come to an understanding, because
we can’t tolerate this conflict among the Lebanese anymore,” he added.
He described the prospects of coming to such an understanding among politicians
as “good.”
Berri has proposed a five-day conclave for dialogue to be attended by March 8
and March 14 leaders, as well as premier-designate Tammam Salam, to address
divisive national issues.
The speaker said the proposed dialogue would focus on both the composition and
ministerial statement of the new Cabinet, a national defense strategy, the means
to put an end to Lebanese intervention in the Syrian conflict, revival of talks
on a new electoral law and a road map to resolve the national socio-economic
crisis.
Political figures across the political divide expressed disparaging views of
Berri’s initiative, especially those affiliated with the Future Movement.
Future MP Ahmad Fatfat described Berri’s initiative as an attempt to alter the
political system. “[The call to dialogue] is an attempt to change the political
system, for he is putting the role of the president and the prime
minister-designate on the discussion table.”
He said the call to dialogue would not yield results because “all the
initiatives that [Berri] has put forth in the past have been failures.”
Hariri’s Foreign Affairs adviser Mohammad Chatah said that “the Baabda
Declaration is a fundamental component for Cabinet formation efforts.”
“If there aren’t meaningful attempts to neutralize the country [in the face of
regional conflicts] then talks of forming a Cabinet are meaningless,” he added.
Jumblatt, however, hailed Berri’s call for dialogue because it intended to end
the political deadlock.
“The Progressive Socialist Party backs every call for dialogue because it will
help prevent Lebanon from plunging into the abyss,” Jumblatt said in his weekly
op-ed in the PSP publication Al-Anbaa.
He said that resuming the National Dialogue would lead to breakthroughs over
divisive matters, such as Hezbollah’s military intervention in Syria.
“Resuming National Dialogue will help to reinforce the policy of disassociation
[from the Syria crisis] and renew the call for all sides to withdraw from Syria,
starting with the resistance, which has turned its weapons away from Israel,” he
said.
“The resistance’s role should be limited to the border [with Israel] as Berri
has said and this requires discussions over a comprehensive national defense
strategy to resume,” Jumblatt added.
Change and Reform bloc MP Simon Abi Ramya said “these historical times require
all parties to participate in an all-embracing Cabinet,” in an interview with
OTV.
The Kataeb Party expressed its support for any initiative which encourages
dialogue.
Kataeb Party MP Fadi Habr said any such initiative was welcome “provided it is
genuine and leads to drawing a real road map to restore both power and
decision-making to the hands of the state’s institutions.”
“The tripartite equation ‘The Army, the people and the resistance’ harms the
country and constitutes treason,” he added.Separately, caretaker Energy Minister
Gebran Bassil is expected to announce an especially fiery stance against Mikati
over outstanding oil decrees requiring the resigned Cabinet to convene for
approval.
Bassil threatened that he would take a “serious stance if a government session
was not called to pass the oil regulating decree.”
However, sources said Bassil should expect to be disappointed as Mikati is
likely to reject his request to convene the caretaker Cabinet. Bassil and Mikati
are set to hold talks over the controversialissue Tuesday morning.
Kuwait advises citizens to leave
Lebanon
Hezbollah checkpoints that stopped diplomats'
vehicles in Beirut prompt Kuwait to advise citizens to leave Lebanon
The Lebanese flag waves from The Lady of Lebanon sanctuary in the Christian
Lebanese village of Harissa overlooking the Bay of Jounieh on September 12,
2012. (AFP PHOTO/PATRICK BAZ)
Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat—Kuwait has condemned the search of a car belonging to
one its embassy staff at a Hezbollah checkpoint in a southern suburb of Beirut
last week.
Lebanese officials have responded by saying that the search was an isolated
incident caused by an individual error.
Kuwait’s ambassador to Lebanon, Abdulaal Al-Qenae, said on Sunday that the
search of the diplomat’s car was “unacceptable, violated his diplomatic immunity
. . . and the brotherly relations between the two countries.”
Qenae said: “In light of recent developments in Lebanon, with explosions in a
number of areas, some Lebanese parties have taken unofficial unilateral security
measures without state permission and without concern for laws and international
agreements. This has caused annoyance to citizens and passers-by, including
diplomats.”
Meanwhile, Lebanese foreign minister Adnan Mansour said: “The issue was
incidental and has been dealt with. We have been informed about a certain event,
we have dealt with it appropriately and, due to the security situation in the
country, some things happen which are dealt with through diplomatic channels. We
respect diplomatic immunity and international agreements that govern diplomatic
norms.” He added that “we do not want to give the issue greater importance than
it deserves.”
Lebanese interior minister Marwan Charbel, however, said the event was
“condemnable and totally rejected by the Lebanese state, and cannot be accepted.
If we had been informed, we would have done our duty.”
Charbel told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah admitted it was in the wrong wrong
and that the error would not be repeated. He said: “This issue is condemned and
rejected. We are in contact and are coordinating with various Lebanese parties,
especially Hezbollah, to resolve this issue.”
He said that “although we encourage citizens to be vigilant, we do not agree
with standing at checkpoints and stopping cars, regardless of who owns them,
whether ordinary people or diplomats.”
Last week, the Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti embassies lodged complaints after
vehicles belonging to their diplomats were stopped and searched. The occurrence
of another incident involving a Kuwaiti diplomat has prompted Kuwait to advise
its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.Ahmed Issa contributed reporting.
In Syria, Western strikes will herald Assad’s fall
By: Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
Regarding punishing the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria and
actually seeking regime change, there is a major difference associated with the
language used in the media and with the legal measures required for each
distinct goal.
The steps to be taken by the international community against the regime of
Bashar Al-Assad will be no more than a limited operation. The aim is to make the
regime reconsider its stance and refrain from using gases and chemicals that are
internationally prohibited.
It is true that the attack will be a limited form of punishment—limited to the
point that Syrian President Assad won’t even have to leave his home; however,
the repercussions and implications of such an attack are significant.
This is the first international military attack against Assad after 27 months of
fighting. The most important of its implications is Moscow’s shifting stance.
Assad’s international ally made unprecedented signs of approving the attack,
although it did not abandon his diplomatic rhetoric urging restraint. Russia’s
current stance resembles its stance before the American invasion of Iraq in
2003. Back then, Russia objected to the invasion but it refrained from joining
the fight, announcing it would not militarily interfere to protect Saddam
Hussein. The same applies to the case of Syria. This is an important field
development because Russia has in the past two years continued to threaten that
it will not remain idle if its Syrian ally is attacked.
If the analysis of the Russian stance is correct, then we are facing an
important shift in the Syrian war in the wake of the recent Saudi approach
towards the Russians. As a result, we notice that the Russians are calmly
withdrawing from Syria. First they began by decreasing the number of their
military experts. Secondly, the Russians are heading towards abandoning Syria as
a naval base for their battleships in the Middle East. Such a move would entail
Assad losing one of his most important international allies. Iran and Hezbollah
would remain steadfast supporters, but what can these two really do?
An often repeated statement of theirs is a threat to burn the region, Iraq’s
Saddam and Libya’s Qaddafi previously made these threats, which vanished with
their departure from power. Iran is smarter than both, as it doesn’t seek to
involve itself. It forcefully fought against Iraq in the 1980s; after that, it
did not fight in any big military operation at all for three decades. It fought
neither in the Gulf, which is important to world oil supply, nor in Israel. It
always left the task to its smaller allies, Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran knows that
the price of confrontation is very high. A one-month war may destroy the
military facilities it built over a period of 30 years.
Hezbollah too will not launch its missiles on northern Israel unless it is
forced to do so. First of all, Hezbollah realizes that such a move will not
prevent the Western attack against Assad. Second of all, Hezbollah’s arms, which
pain the Lebanese, represent nothing more than cat-like scratches on the arm of
Israel—that is, they are not too harmful. Hezbollah is also capable of carrying
out terrorist operations against Arab and foreign interests. These too will not
stop the collapse of the regime in Damascus. They will instead increase the
world’s belief in the importance of besieging Hezbollah and punishing it later.
We will not witness a repeat of the American toppling of Saddam, which took a
matter of days. What is expected is that any foreign intervention in Syria will
be geared towards specified targets. These attacks won’t topple Assad’s regime
but will contribute to its weakening, laying the groundwork for its collapse at
a later date. Assad, despite the unprecedented support he received from Iran,
Russia, Iraq and Hezbollah, failed to win the war.
We will see a sick, exhausted man confronted with a superior Western attack. If
the opposition and its army had been united, then perhaps there would have been
no need for international military sanctions. Assad is exhausted and the Iranian
and Russian support did not help him regain any of the power or the lands he has
lost.
In addition to the regime’s weakness, it has become further exposed as a result
of the withdrawal of Russian support and Iran’s announcement that it will
abstain from militarily defending Syria. Let’s remember that this is the first
Western military move against Assad. We see the threat’s repercussions embodied
in the Syrian regime’s apparent fear and the Free Syrian Army’s preparation to
expand its operations towards the capital. All these signs indicate that Assad’s
fall will occur in the upcoming months. Fear and desperation may speed up the
collapse of his regime well before that.
A Wake-Up Call
By: Mshari Al-Zaydi /Asharq Alawsat
Obama continues to downplay the plans the US is making for strikes against
Bashar Al-Assad’s troops, saying that they will be limited, and that it will
neither be a full-scale war nor will it be intended to overthrow the regime. All
that’s left for Obama to tell Bashar is the coordinates of the targeted sites so
that they can be evacuated, and for Bashar and his brother Maher to go away on
summer vacation until after the strike is over.
Obama is following a path he hates to travel. The worst news he ever heard from
his men was that Assad’s troops have, in fact, used the forbidden chemical
weapons, which means that he has crossed Obama’s red line. So now Obama has no
option but to reinforce the credibility of his warning.
It is not true that all wars are waged for one reason only. Wars are waged for
any number of reasons, such as geographic expansion, resources, religion,
patriotism, and even for personal motives—leaving aside the wars sparked by
moral embarrassment.
Obama is being pulled into a war the entire world can see he does not want to
fight. We all know how Obama shunned American involvement in Syria for two
years—despite the bloody nature of the Syrian state of affairs—and how he
declined to take a real action on the ground.
In fact, this is a war to restore American credibility. It is also a war to
prove the moral responsibility of the West, as much as it is about a shared norm
in modern warfare: the abstention from using internationally forbidden weapons.
We have no idea about how serious will this war be. Perhaps all we will see is a
handful of missiles, fired to no avail.
It is a source of sorrow that the Arabs have become addicted to repeating the
anarchic conduct of denial. In Yemen, pro-Bashar demonstrations took place to
express solidarity with the chemical killer, and a Yemeni delegation was even
sent to Syria to support him. In Egypt, newspapers—even the sedate ones—are full
of various reports critical of the idea of a military strike, and full of talk
about conspiracy theories in a manner reminiscent of the Arab media following
Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait.
There are also people in the Gulf who were influenced by such a discourse and
are playing the same tune by demanding an “Arab solution,” as if Kuwait was
liberated from Saddam with an Arab solution.
What is required, then? Should we let Bashar kill as many people as he wishes in
the hope that his conscience will be aroused someday? Should we wait until the
disintegration of the Syrian social fabric stops on its own, or should we leave
the Syrian wound open for more Al-Qaeda and Shi’ite militias?
A senior Arab journalist, discussing why he thinks military strikes against
Bashar Al-Assad’s troops are a bad idea—having reviewed calls for war in the US,
of which he found only a few against Bashar—concluded in utter bewilderment,
saying: “If I’m to have a third opinion, I’d say that I wish that the Syrian
people would emerge as winners, but I do not know why.”
Amer Ebaid, a twenty-seven-year-old Syrian refugee who fled his country over the
Lebanese border with his family to escape the hell of Bashar’s chemicals, his
bombs and the anticipated US strike, answers by saying: “The Americans will make
their strike, God willing. I want them to make it, but the Americans were never
once truthful. I hope they will launch their strike so that the Arabs can
finally be awakened.”
Iran, Russia advise Assad to transfer
chemical stockpile to Tehran - to avert US attack
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 2,
2013/The Iranian parliamentary delegation visiting Damascus Sunday, Sept. 1,
advised Bashar Assad to move his chemical stockpile out of Syria and deposit it
in Tehran under Iranian and Russian military supervision, to save himself from
an American military strike, debkafile’s exclusive military and Iranian sources
reveal.
Chairman of the Majlis Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ala-Eddin Borujerdi,
who headed the delegation, explained that Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Vladimir
Putin had discussed the stockpile’s removal ad hoc, as the basis of a
Iranian-Russian plan for presenting to US President Barack Obama at the G-20
summit meeting in St. Petersburg later this week.
After the Americans accept the plan and the crisis blows over, the stockpile
could be quietly returned to Syria, the Iranian lawmaker explained.
Another option was for Iranian and Russian teams to destroy the stockpile in
return for US-Arab League guarantees that the Syrian rebels would not use this
process for strategic war gains. The chemical agents would be destroyed in
stages in accordance with rebel compliance with such guarantees.
debkafile’s military sources explain Tehran’s quest for a deal on two grounds:
One - Iran supplied Syria with most of the formulae and substances for the
manufacture of the poison agents and fears exposure if they fall into American
hands.
Another is anxiety lest an American military strike on Syria’s chemical stores –
if it is allowed to go through – would serve as a precedent or prequel for a
similar attack on Iran’s nuclear assets.
Tehran is therefore willing to put on an amenable face and meet the United
States half way on the disposal of Syria’s chemical arsenal. The offer would be
presented as good for President Obama and let him give the American people the
glad tidings that he had managed to defuse the Syrian chemical crisis by
procuring a joint Iranian-Russian guarantee to eliminate Syria’s chemical
arsenal. He could then call off an attack Syria with honor, or postpone it
indefinitely to avoid disrupting the process of Syria’s chemical disarmament.
Both the Russians and the Iranians saw an opening for their plan in a phrase
President Obama used in his surprise announcement Saturday night, Aug. 31 that
he would ask Congress to authorize a military attack on Syria before going
ahead. It was this: “…the Chairman [of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff] has
indicated to me that our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive;
it will be effective tomorrow, or next week, or a month from now.”
The Russian-Iranian plan would turn those words back on the US president by
offering him guarantees that if he was not satisfied that Syria’s chemical
stocks were gone - either by transfer to Iran or destroyed - he had left himself
with time to play with for reverting to his military option.
The Iranian lawmakers told Assad that Tehran is not fully in the picture of the
secret Russian-US dialogue on Syria, but Tehran had reason to believe that the
Russians had put out feelers to the Americans on the proposition and were not
initially turned down.
Russian and Iranian intelligence experts on US politics expect Obama’s limited
offensive plan for Syria to run into major obstacles in Congress. They hope the
opposition will find added support for its counter-arguments in the
Iranian-Russian proposition. And even if it is eventually turned down, the
deliberations on its pros and cons would buy time for the Syrian ruler's war
effort.
The Iranian parliamentary delegation also included Javad Karimi Qodusi and Fath-o-Allah
Hosseini, two other prominent members of the Majlis foreign affairs panel.
Insight: As Obama blinks on Syria, Israel, Saudis make common cause
By Jeffrey Heller and Angus McDowall
JERUSALEM/RIYADH (Reuters) - If President Barack Obama has disappointed Syrian
rebels by deferring to Congress before bombing Damascus, he has also dismayed
the United States' two main allies in the Middle East.
Israel and Saudi Arabia have little love for each other but both are pressing
their mutual friend in the White House to hit President Bashar al-Assad hard.
And both do so with one eye fixed firmly not on Syria but on their common
adversary - Iran.
Israel's response to Obama's surprise move to delay or even possibly cancel air
strikes made clear that connection: looking soft on Assad after accusing him of
killing hundreds of people with chemical weapons may embolden his backers in
Tehran to develop nuclear arms, Israeli officials said. And if they do, Israel
may strike Iran alone, unsure Washington can be trusted.
Neither U.S. ally is picking a fight with Obama in public. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the nation was "serene and
self-confident"; Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal simply renewed a
call to the "international community" to halt Assad's violence in Syria.
But the Saudi monarchy, though lacking Israel's readiness to attack Iran, can
share the Jewish state's concern that neither may now look with confidence to
Washington to curb what Riyadh sees as a drive by its Persian rival to dominate
the Arab world.
Last year, Obama assured Israelis that he would "always have Israel's back". Now
Netanyahu is reassuring them they can manage without uncertain U.S. protection
against Iran, which has called for Israel's destruction but denies developing
nuclear weapons.
"Israel's citizens know well that we are prepared for any possible scenario,"
the hawkish prime minister said. "And Israel's citizens should also know that
our enemies have very good reasons not to test our power and not to test our
might."
That may not reassure a U.S. administration which has tried to steer Netanyahu
away from unilateral action against Iran that could stir yet more chaos in the
already explosive Middle East.
Israel's state-run Army Radio was more explicit: "If Obama is hesitating on the
matter of Syria," it said, "Then clearly on the question of attacking Iran, a
move that is expected to be far more complicated, Obama will hesitate much more
- and thus the chances Israel will have to act alone have increased."
Israelis contrast the "red line" Netanyahu has set for how close Iran may come
to nuclear weapons capability before Israel strikes with Obama's "red line" on
Assad's use of chemical weapons - seemingly passed without U.S. military action
so far.
"HEAD OF THE SNAKE"
Saudi Arabia, like Israel heavily dependent on the United States for arms
supplies, is engaged in a historic confrontation with Iran for regional
influence - a contest shaped by their leading roles in the rival Sunni and
Shi'ite branches of Islam.
Riyadh is a prime backer of Sunni rebels fighting Assad, whose Alawite minority
is a Shi'ite offshoot. It sees toppling Assad as checking Iran's ambition not
just in Syria but in other Arab states including the Gulf, where it mistrusts
Shi'ites in Saudi Arabia itself and in neighboring Bahrain, Yemen and Iraq.
Saudi King Abdullah's wish for U.S. action against Iran was memorably contained
in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables, including one in which a Saudi envoy said the
monarch wanted Washington to "cut off the head of the snake" to end Tehran's
nuclear threat.
Disappointment with Obama's hesitation against Assad came through on Sunday in
the Saudi foreign minister's remarks to the Arab League in Cairo, where he said
words were no longer enough.
Riyadh and its allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) risk ending up
empty-handed in their latest push for U.S. backing in their campaign to rein in
Iran, said Sami al-Faraj, a Kuwaiti analyst who advises the GCC on security
matters:
"The idea of a punishment for a crime has lost its flavor. We are on the edge of
the possibility that military action may not be conducted," he said. "Congress,
for sure, ... will attach conditions to what is already going to be a limited
strike. At the end, we as Gulf allies, may end up with nothing."
Israel does not share the Saudi enthusiasm for the Syrian rebel cause, despite
its concern about Assad's role as a link between Iran and Lebanese and
Palestinian enemies. The presence in rebel ranks of Sunni Islamist militants,
some linked to al Qaeda, worries the Jewish state - though Riyadh, too, is keen
to curb al Qaeda, which calls the royal family American stooges.
EGYPTIAN LESSONS
Saudi and Israeli support for U.S. air strikes in response to Assad's alleged
use of poison gas scarcely stands out less amid a global clamor of reproach for
Damascus. But the recent Egyptian crisis saw them more distinctly making common
cause in lobbying Washington - since their preference for Egypt's army over
elected Islamists was at odds with much of world opinion.
That, too, reflects shared anxieties about the strength of Islamic populism and
about Iran, which found a more sympathetic ear in Cairo after the election of
President Mohamed Mursi.
Israeli political commentators used terms such as "betrayal" and "bullet in the
back from Uncle Sam" when Obama abandoned loyal ally Hosni Mubarak during the
popular uprising of 2011.
While some Western leaders voiced unease at the army's overthrow of Mursi in
July and bloody crackdown on his Muslim Brotherhood, in Israel even Obama's mild
rebuke to the generals - delaying delivery of four warplanes to Egypt - caused
"raised eyebrows" of disapproval, an official there said.
A "gag order" from Netanyahu kept that quiet, however, as Israel's military kept
open the communications with Egypt's armed forces, not least over militant
attacks near their desert border, in a manner that has been the bedrock of the
U.S.-brokered peace treaty binding Israel and Egypt since 1979.
Unusually, it was Saudi Arabia which was the more vocally critical of
Washington's allies over its Egypt policy.
As U.S. lawmakers toyed with holding back aid to the new military-backed
government, Riyadh and its Gulf allies poured in many more billions in aid and
loans to Cairo.
And Saudi Arabia told Washington defiantly that it would make up any shortfall
if the United States dared to turn off the taps: "To those who have declared
they are stopping aid to Egypt or are waving such a threat, the Arab and Muslim
nations ... will not shy away from offering a helping hand to Egypt," foreign
minister Prince Saud said last month.
DISCREET DIPLOMACY
More quietly, Israel has been engaged in direct discussions with the White
House, urging Obama not to waver in support of Egypt's military and saying it is
time to act on Syria.
An official briefed on U.S.-Israeli discussions said Israeli intercepts of
Syrian communications were used by Obama administration officials in making
their public case that Assad was behind the August 21 gas attacks and must be
penalized.
Netanyahu, whose frosty rapport with Obama blossomed into a display of harmony
on the president's visit to Israel in March, has ordered his ministers not to
criticize Obama publicly after the president's decision to take the Syrian issue
to Congress.
A government source said the prime minister told his cabinet on Sunday: "We are
in the middle of an ongoing event. It is not over and there are sensitive and
delicate issues at play.
"There is no room here for individual comments," he said. "I'm asking you not to
behave irresponsibly when it comes to our ally, just so you can grab a fleeting
headline."
That did stop Tzachi Hanegbi, a Netanyahu confidant who sits on parliament's
defense committee, complaining on Army Radio that Obama had delivered further
proof to Iran - and North Korea - that "there is no enthusiasm in the world to
deal with their ongoing defiance regarding nuclear weaponry".
"To us it says one thing: ... in the words of our sages: 'If I am not for
myself, then who is?'"
Israel clearly hopes still that Congress will give Obama the green light for
strikes against Assad but is also likely to be wary of deploying its own
lobbying power among lawmakers.
That risks being counter-productive and, in any case, the president has made
clear that threats to Israel from Syrian chemical weapons are among his own
arguments for war.
Concern in Washington over a go-it-alone Israeli strike on Iran are still
strong; Israel is unlikely to use the nuclear warheads it is assumed to possess
but any strike on its distant and populous enemy would have unpredictable
consequences.
As a result, U.S. leaders have beaten a path to Jerusalem - Obama himself in
March but also Secretary of State John Kerry several times, relaunching talks
with the Palestinians in the process, and General Martin Dempsey, chairman of
the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made his third visit to Israel last month.
Gadi Shamni, an Israeli military attache in the United States until last year,
said that on the Iranian issue, "there were times when we were in the same book,
then the same chapter.
"Right now we are on the same page. There is a lot of flow of intelligence and
views and understanding."
MILITANT THREAT
For all the unease that Israel has about Syria's rebels, who have at times fired
into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, it is pushing hard against Assad now
after learning to live with the Syrian leader and his father over the past 40
years. One Israeli official said the message from Netanyahu was clear:
"There is a man in nominal control of Syria who is using chemical weapons
against civilians. That has to be stopped."
That sentiment is echoed in Riyadh. Abdullah al-Askar, chairman of the foreign
affairs committee in the Shoura Council, said that U.S. strikes should aim to
end Assad's rule.
Askar, who said he was speaking in a personal capacity, told Reuters: "If the
attack is just a punishment to show that the international community will not
stand for chemical attacks, Assad will just remain in his place and do his
bloody work.
"The second scenario is to finish the business."
Mustafa Alani, a Gulf analyst with good connections to Saudi officials, said the
kingdom was also warning Washington that a failure to attack Assad would benefit
their common enemy al Qaeda: "No action will boost the extremist position," he
said, explaining that rebel despair at U.S. inaction on Syria would push more
fighters to switch allegiance to Islamist militants.
Paraphrasing what he said was a Saudi argument, Alani said: "Without a
punishment of the regime, extremists will enjoy wider support and attract more
moderate fighters."
Riyadh already shares rebel frustrations with the shortage of U.S. military aid
reaching Syria, despite Obama's commitment in June to step up assistance after
poison gas was first used.
A senior U.S. official spoke of a "stable relationship" with Riyadh "on core
national security areas". But the official also conceded: "While we do not agree
on every issue, when we have different perspectives we have honest and open
discussions."
As with Israel over Iran, those are likely to continue.
Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh in 2001-03, said intelligence chief
Prince Bandar bin Sultan and ambassador to Washington Adel Jubeir had been "very
outspoken" in their belief the rebels that can be trusted and should get
military backing.
Obama denies seeking the "regime change" Riyadh wants. But Jordan added: "It
doesn't mean they won't keep pushing for it."
(Additional reporting by William Maclean in Beirut and Matt Spetalnick in
Washington; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)
Arab League Urges U.N., World to Take 'Deterrent' Steps on Syria
Naharnet/Arab League foreign ministers on Sunday urged the United Nations and
the international community to take "deterrent" action against the Syrian regime
over alleged chemical attacks near Damascus.
But they fell short of calling for military strikes as proposed by the United
States, amid divisions in Arab ranks with several countries opposed to foreign
intervention in Syria. "The United Nations and the international community are
called upon to assume their responsibilities in line with the U.N. Charter and
international law by taking the necessary deterrent measures" following the
August 21 suspected chemical attacks, they said in a statement. The ministers,
meeting in Cairo, said the Syrian regime was "responsible" for the attacks which
the United States says killed hundreds of people with the use of sarin gas. U.S.
President Barack Obama said he will seek congressional approval to launch a
punitive strike on the regime in Damascus over last month's attacks in suburbs
of the Syrian capital. U.N. chemical weapons inspectors have carried out a probe
in the suspected sites and collected samples which will be sent to European
laboratories from Monday. The U.N. has refused to announce its timeline for
finishing the analysis. "We have learned through samples that were provided to
the United States and that have now been tested from first responders in East
Damascus, (that) hair samples and blood samples have tested positive for
signatures of sarin," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told NBC's Meet the
Press on Sunday. The Arab foreign ministers said those responsible for
unleashing the poison gas in Syria must be tried before an international court
"like other war criminals." They also called for "all forms of support needed by
the Syrian people" but without explicitly calling for military strikes as
proposed by the United States and France. Source/Agence France Presse
Scornful Syria hails 'historic
American retreat' as Obama hesitates
By Yara Bayoumy and Thomas Ferraro
BEIRUT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Syria hailed a "historic American retreat" on
Sunday, mockingly accusing President Barack Obama of hesitation and confusion
after he delayed a military response to last month's chemical weapons attack
near Damascus to consult Congress. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said tests
had shown sarin nerve gas was fired on rebel-held areas on August 21, and
expressed confidence that U.S. lawmakers would do "what is right" in response.
Washington says more than 1,400 people, many of them children, were killed in
the attack.
It was the deadliest incident of the Syrian civil war and the world's worst use
of chemical arms since Iraq's Saddam Hussein gassed thousands of Kurds in 1988.
But opinion polls have shown strong opposition to a punitive strike among
Americans weary of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama's announcement on Saturday that he would seek congressional authorization
for punitive military action against Syria is likely to delay any strike for at
least nine days.
But the United Nations said his announcement could be seen as part of an effort
to forge a global consensus on responding to the use of chemical arms anywhere.
"The use of chemical weapons will not be accepted under any circumstances," U.N.
spokesman Martin Nesirky said. "There should be no impunity and any perpetrators
of such a horrific crime against humanity must be held accountable."Arab states
called on the international community to take action against the Syrian
government.
The final resolution of a meeting of Arab League meeting foreign ministers
meeting in Cairo urged the United Nations and international community to "take
the deterrent and necessary measures against the culprits of this crime that the
Syrian regime bears responsibility for".
The ministers also said those responsible for the attack should face trial, as
other "war criminals" have.
Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal told Arab League counterparts on
Sunday that opposing international intervention would only encourage Damascus to
use weapons of mass destruction.
The Syrian government says the attack was staged by the rebels. With Obama
drawing back from the brink, President Bashar al-Assad reacted defiantly to the
threat of Western retaliation, saying Syria was capable of confronting any
external strike.
He left his most withering comments to his official media and a junior minister.
"Obama announced yesterday, directly or through implication, the beginning of
the historic American retreat," Syria's official al-Thawra newspaper said in a
front-page editorial.
Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad accused Obama of indecision. "It is
clear there was a sense of hesitation and disappointment in what was said by
President Barack Obama yesterday. And it is also clear there was a sense of
confusion as well," he told reporters in Damascus.
Before Obama put on the brakes, the path had been cleared for a U.S. assault.
Warships were in place and awaiting orders to launch missiles, and U.N.
inspectors had left Syria after gathering evidence on the use of chemical
weapons.
Kerry invoked the crimes of Adolf Hitler, Saddam and the potential threat to
Israel from Syria and Iran in urging skeptical U.S. lawmakers to back a strike
on Assad's forces.
"This is squarely now in the hands of Congress," he told CNN, saying he had
confidence "they will do what is right because they understand the stakes."
WEARY AMERICANS
It became apparent on Sunday that convincing Congress of atrocities committed by
Assad's forces was only one of the challenges confronting Obama.
Lawmakers raised a broad array of concerns, including the potential
effectiveness of limited strikes, the possible unintended consequence of
sparking a wider Middle East conflict, the wisdom of acting without broader
international backing to share the burden and the war weariness of the American
public.
Many Democrats and Republicans are uneasy about intervening in a distant civil
war in which 100,000 people have been killed over the past 2 1/2 years, and
lawmakers have not cut short their summer recess, which ends September 9.
Mike Rogers, Republican chairman of the House of Representatives Intelligence
Committee, told CNN there were "real challenges," but added: I think that at the
end of the day, Congress will rise to the occasion. This is a national security
issue."
Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky took a more skeptical view. "It's at
least 50-50 whether the House will vote down the involvement in the Syrian war,"
he told NBC.
"I think the Senate will rubber stamp what he wants," he said. "The House will
be a much closer vote." The Senate is controlled by Obama's Democratic Party,
while the House is in the hands of the Republican Party.
Members of Congress were briefed by Obama's national security team on the case
for military action and Kerry said he had more evidence backing accusations
against Damascus.
"I can share with you today that blood and hair samples that have come to us
through an appropriate chain of custody, from east Damascus, from first
responders, it has tested positive for signatures of sarin," he told CNN.
U.N. weapons inspectors collected their own samples and diplomats say
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has told the five permanent Security Council
members - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - that it would
take up to two weeks before the final report is ready.
In Damascus, ordinary Syrians reacted with a mixture of relief, disappointment
and scorn to Obama's decision. "I have to admit this morning was the first time
I felt I could sleep in," said Nawal, who works as a housekeeper in the Syrian
capital.
Bread had returned to the bakeries and members of the state security forces
appeared relaxed, drinking tea and chatting at their posts outside government
buildings.
"We always knew there wouldn't be a strike," one of them said. "It's not going
to happen. Anyway, we were never nervous about it. We were just worried for the
civilians. But we're confident it's not going to happen."
FRANCE CANNOT GO IT ALONE
The United States had originally been expected to lead a strike relatively
quickly, backed up by its NATO allies Britain and France. But British lawmakers
voted on Thursday against any involvement and France said on Sunday it would
await the U.S. Congress' decision.
"France cannot go it alone," Interior Minister Manuel Valls told Europe 1 radio.
"We need a coalition."
French President Francois Hollande, whose country ruled Syria for more than two
decades until the 1940s, has come under increasing pressure to put the
intervention to parliament.
A BVA poll on Saturday showed most French people did not approve of military
action and most did not trust Hollande to conduct such an operation.
Jean-Marc Ayrault, his prime minister, was to meet the heads of both houses of
parliament and the conservative opposition on Monday before lawmakers debate
Syria on Wednesday.
French first lady Valerie Trierweiler said on Sunday she was still in shock over
pictures of Syrian children killed in the attack and told France's M6, "I do not
know how one can bear it, how one can accept it."
Syria and its main ally, Russia, say rebels carried out the gas attack to draw
in foreign military intervention. Moscow has repeatedly used its U.N. Security
Council veto to block action against Syria, saying it would be illegal and only
inflame the civil war. Critics say further delay by Obama is simply buying Assad
more time. The Istanbul-based Syrian opposition coalition said Assad had moved
military equipment and personnel to civilian areas and put prisoners in military
sites as human shields against any Western air strikes. It said rockets, Scud
missiles and launchers as well as soldiers had been moved to locations including
schools, university dormitories and government buildings inside cities. Reuters
could not independently verify the reports, and attempts to reach Syrian
officials for comment were unsuccessful.
Obama's credibility has already been called into question for not punishing
Assad over earlier alleged gas attacks, and he is under pressure to act now that
he believes Damascus has crossed what he once described as a "red line". Failure
to act, some say, could mean Iran would feel free to press on with a nuclear
program the West believes is aimed at developing an atomic bomb and that might
encourage Israel to take matters into its own hands.
"If Obama is hesitating on the matter of Syria, then clearly on the question of
attacking Iran - a move that is expected to be far more complicated - Obama will
hesitate much more, and thus the chances Israel will have to act alone have
increased," Israeli Army Radio quoted an unnamed government official as saying.
Financial markets have been concerned about possible intervention in Syria and a
delay caused by seeking congressional approval would be "a positive," said
Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management in Walnut Creek,
California. "A delay will let investors calm down and assess things. There was a
lot of concern that there would be unilateral military action, because that
could have had a major impact on oil prices, which in turn would have impacted
GDP and consumer spending - not what we want to see with economic growth still
so slow, he said. Pope Francis called for a negotiated solution to the conflict
in Syria and announced he would lead a worldwide day of prayer for peace in the
country on Saturday. (Additional reporting by Yeganeh Torbati in Dubai, Louis
Charbonneau and Edith Honan at the United Nations, Nick Tattersall in Istanbul,
Dan Williams in Jerusalem, Philip Pullella in Rome, Ismael Khader in Antakya,
Turkey, Michael Georgy in Cairo, Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom in
Washington and Ryan Vlastelica in New York; Writing by David Stamp and David
Brunnstrom; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Obama and aides confront skeptical Congress on Syria strike
By Patricia Zengerle and Matt Spetalnick
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and his top aides launched a
full-scale political offensive on Sunday to persuade a skeptical Congress to
approve a military strike against Syria, but faced a struggle to win over
lawmakers from both parties and a war-weary American public. Obama made calls to
members of the House of Representatives and Senate, with more scheduled for
Monday, underscoring the task confronting the administration before it can go
ahead with using force in response to a deadly chemical attack blamed on the
Syrian government. Dozens of lawmakers, some in tennis shirts or shirtsleeves,
cut short their vacations and streamed into the corridors of the Capitol
building for a Sunday afternoon intelligence briefing on Syria with Obama's
national security team. When they emerged nearly three hours later, there was no
immediate sign that the many skeptics in Congress had changed their minds. Many
questioned the broad nature of the measure Obama is seeking, suggesting it
measure needed to be narrowed.
"I am very concerned about taking America into another war against a country
that hasn't attacked us," said Representative Janice Hahn, a California
Democrat. On the way out of the briefing, she said the participants appeared
"evenly divided" on whether to give Obama approval. Most seemed convinced that
Syria had engaged in chemical warfare. "The searing image of babies lined up
dead, that's what I can't get out of my mind right now," Democratic
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz said after the closed-door briefing. But
the credibility of the administration's intelligence is turning out to be a less
important issue than the nature and usefulness of the response. Earlier in the
day, Secretary of State John Kerry invoked the crimes of Adolf Hitler and Saddam
Hussein and warned of a potential threat to Israel a day after Obama delayed an
imminent attack on Syrian targets until after a congressional vote. Even as
Kerry took to the airwaves touting new evidence that deadly sarin gas was used
in the August 21 chemical attack near Damascus, the scope of the challenge
confronting the administration became apparent. Lawmakers questioned the
effectiveness of limited strikes, the possible unintended consequence of
dragging the United States into another open-ended Middle East conflict, the
wisdom of acting without broader international backing to share the burden, and
the war fatigue of the American public. Polls show the public is largely opposed
to U.S. military action.
While Kerry predicted Obama would win the endorsement he wants, a growing
cacophony of congressional critics - ranging from liberal Democratic doves to
Republican Tea Party conservatives - illustrated just how hard that will be.
"I'm not convinced that the administration's support will resolve the issues in
Syria," Representative Bennie Thompson, the top Democrat on the Homeland
Security Committee, said as he left the meeting, adding he was leaning toward a
"no" vote. "In terms of whether not a lot of questions were really answered
today? I'd say no," he said. Kerry, the administration's most impassioned voice
for intervention in Syria's 2-1/2-year civil war, was left to publicly defend
Obama's stunning reversal, a decision that puts any strike on hold for at least
nine days.
"This is squarely now in the hands of Congress," Kerry told CNN, saying he had
confidence lawmakers "will do what is right because they understand the stakes."
In a round of television appearances, Kerry declined to say whether Obama would
proceed with military action if Congress rejects his request, as Britain's
parliament did last week.
He echoed Obama's comments in the White House Rose Garden on Saturday, insisting
the president had the right to act on his own if he chooses that course.
Obama is taking a gamble by putting the brakes on the military assault he
considers essential to maintain U.S. credibility after Assad crossed the "red
line" set against the use of chemical weapons.
U.S. military officials are using the delay to reassess which ships will be used
for a strike, and which sites in Syria to target. One change was a decision to
send the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and its entire strike group toward the Red
Sea to help support the Syria strike, if needed.
MORE EVIDENCE
The consensus on Capitol Hill is that Obama has a good chance of winning
approval in the Democratic-led Senate, but the vote appears too close to call in
the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where the president's
opponents rarely miss an opportunity to block him.
The White House is due to talk with House Democrats by telephone on Monday, and
Obama will meet with the heads of several key House and Senate committees in
person on Tuesday.
Acknowledging that the administration has its work cut out, Kerry insisted
Congress could not "have it both ways" by demanding a voice and then abdicating
responsibility to uphold the international bans on chemical weapons use. Kerry
used the television appearances to provide further evidence backing accusations
against the Syrian government.
"I can share with you today that blood and hair samples that have come to us
through an appropriate chain of custody, from east Damascus, from first
responders, it has tested positive for signatures of sarin," Kerry told CNN's
"State of the Union."It was the first time the administration had pinpointed the
chemical used in the attack, which U.S. intelligence agencies said killed more
than 1,400 people, many of them children.
OBAMA'S DILEMMA
Obama's efforts are sure to be hampered by his dismal relations with
congressional Republicans. Another bitter face-off on government spending is
looming this autumn.
Lawmakers for the most part welcomed Obama's decision to consult them, but
looked in no hurry to reconvene early from their summer recess, which lasts
until September 9.
Underscoring a sense of wariness even from Obama's traditional allies, many
Democrats joined Republicans in saying the use-of-force resolution offered by
the White House is too broad and that new language will be written for
consideration. Several said they wanted it to include strict time limits,
guarantee that no U.S. troops would be sent into Syria, and tie authorization
for any further military action to additional chemical weapons use by Assad.
"The president said this is going to be limited. Yet that's an open-ended
authorization to just about do anything he wants," said Democratic Senator Tom
Harkin.
"The resolution as it is right now is so open-ended that it gives a blanket
authority with no time limits. You can't accept it just on its face," said
Republican Representative Dennis Ross. "Now we have to look at what is the exit
strategy if we do a strike, and I don't know if we're going to do that."
Republican Representative Peter King of New York said it was unclear if
lawmakers would sign off on an attack on Syria, but he warned Obama may have to
overcome "the isolationist wing" of the Republican Party to prevail.
Seeking to lay the groundwork for what is expected to be a heated congressional
debate, Kerry tipped his hand on one administration tactic - linking the vote to
safeguarding U.S. ally Israel from the Syrian chemical weapons threat. "I don't
think they will want to vote, ultimately, to put Israel at risk," Kerry said.
Lawmakers of both major political parties recognize how important it is to be
seen as defenders of Israel, especially at election time, when they compete to
show voters who is a better friend of the Jewish state. (Additional reporting by
Jeff Mason, Thomas Ferraro, Patricia Zengerle, Patrick Temple-West, David
Brunnstrom, Rachelle Younglai and Andrea Shalal-Esa; Writing by Matt Spetalnick;
Editing by Jackie Frank, Fred Barbash and Peter Cooney)
Canada Condemns Latest Violence in
Iraq
September 1, 2013 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and Canada’s
Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander today issued the following
statement:
“Canada condemns the attack that has taken the lives of scores of residents in a
camp housing Iranian exiles northeast of Baghdad.
“Our thoughts go out to the families and friends of the victims of this
senseless violence. We also wish a full recovery to those injured.
“We call on the Government of Iraq to protect these individuals and continue to
work within the United Nations framework.
“Although reports remain unconfirmed as to who was responsible for this act of
violence, Canada will be raising our concerns directly with Iraqi officials.
Canada urges that those responsible are brought to justice.”
The Last Israelis
by Noah Beck/FrontPageMagazine.com
http://www.meforum.org/3600/the-last-israelis
After constant exposure to critically important news, it begins to lose all
meaning and sense of urgency. Hearing the same warnings over and over
again—especially when the status quo seems static—can cause a certain
desensitization, a resigned apathy that ignores the warnings in the wishful hope
that they won't materialize. This hope becomes more optimistic (and passive)
with each passing day that the warnings do not materialize.
One of the most evident examples of this phenomenon is the threat of a nuclear
Iran. For years, the international community has been hearing about Iran's
pursuit of nuclear weapons; for years, the world has been hearing Iran make
bold, genocidal threats—most notoriously, that it will wipe the state of Israel
off the map. But so far, Iran reportedly still has no nukes, and no large attack
has been launched on Israel. Thus, many have become desensitized to the
situation—including those charged with ensuring that a nuclear Iran never
becomes a reality.
But that reality has never been closer, as we are warned in Noah Beck's recent
novel, The Last Israelis. It is our current proximity to apocalyptic war that
makes Beck's doomsday warning about a nuclear Iran so compelling. If the worst
comes to pass, this chilling attempt to rouse the West from its torpor could
turn out to be that final, horribly prophetic alert that went unheeded.
Much of the public is conditioned by the mainstream media and government to
focus on the short-term—U.S. presidents tend to concentrate only on matters
pressing during their tenure—and rarely ever on longer-term issues or threats.
Thus, a nuclear holocaust in the Middle East seems unrealistic. Add to this the
fact that virtually all nations with nukes have never used them, and one can see
why a certain apathy prevails when it comes to the idea of a nuclear Iran.
But Iran is different. Its Shiites leaders believe that at the end of times, a
9th-century prophet, the 12th Imam, will reappear to kill all the infidels and
raise the flag of Islam in all four corners of the world. Reza Kahlili, a former
CIA operative in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, reported last year on the
apocalyptic statements from Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who
dictates Iran's nuclear policy. Khamenei's statements, which were carried by
Iranian state media, proclaimed that "The issue of Imam Mahdi is of utmost
importance, and his reappearance has been clearly stated in our holy religion of
Islam. We must study and remind ourselves of the end of times and Imam Mahdi's
era… We must prepare the environment for the coming so that the great leader
will come." Kahlili also translated Iranian news reports from last June
suggesting that Iran's newly elected president, Hassan Rouhani (the so-called
"moderate"), shares Khamenei's views. The reports quote Rouhani thanking the
Islamic messiah for his June 15th electoral victory.
Indeed, the Islamic theocracy ruling Iran believes that apocalyptic scenarios
are necessary before Islam's savior, the Mahdi, or "Hidden Imam," returns
(including a prophecy that Muslims must slay all Jews before he returns);
believes that death in the jihad results in instant paradise for the "martyr";
believes the oft recited Islamist sentiment that "Muslims love death as
Westerners love life"—a sentiment that has manifested itself in reality all too
often by young Muslim men and women sacrificing their lives to become suicide
bombs that kill Americans, Israelis, and many others.
In short, Iran has a worldview that is markedly different than the one that
guides Western decision-making. Unlike nuclear-armed Western secular
democracies, a nuclear Islamic supremacist regime in Iran is much more prone to
use the devastating weapons. Thus, the situation is serious, is urgent, and, as
the United Nations refuses to act decisively, could trigger a holocaust that
sees millions of innocent people—Israelis and Iranians alike—wiped out
overnight.
What would such a nightmare scenario be like?
As a powerful, well-researched novel, The Last Israelis provides a gripping
answer, and helps to neutralize the desensitization and/or apathy to a nuclear
Iran by depicting an all too real scenario of what a nuclear Iran could
ultimately mean for the region and the world.
The narrative follows the lives of an Israeli submarine crew. After news that
Iran has achieved nuclear status vis-à-vis an impotent or indifferent West, they
are yanked from loved ones during an interrupted and all too brief shore leave,
and sent on a mission possibly to retaliate with submarine-launched nuclear
ballistic missiles, if a nuclear strike is launched against Israel. Halfway
through their mission, the submariners lose contact with base command and the
ambiguity surrounding those circumstances—and what they could imply—creates
palpable tension and conflict among the crewmembers.
What follows among the crew is a very philosophical—though all too human—debate
over what they should do, as it is now up to them to decide the fate of
millions:
If the final communication from headquarters states that Israel was "attacked on
all fronts," and that naval command was hit and "in crisis management mode,"
what did that mean for the rest of the country that had been "attacked on all
fronts?" What did it mean for [the submariners'] loved ones?…And what did it
mean to decide to do something that would kill millions of human beings in just
a few hours? Each submariner struggled with these weighty questions, trying to
decide for himself what was the most appropriate course of action under the
circumstances.
The nuanced debates are particularly interesting because Beck's crew is as
heterogeneous and complex as the Israeli society that they defend, including a
Vietnamese-Israeli, an Arab-Israeli Druze, an Ethiopian-Israeli, and a Christian
Israeli. Based on their individual backgrounds, upbringings, and most
importantly, experiences, this motley crew offers dramatically different
perspectives—from the hawkish to the dovish—that reflect the diverse views that
one finds in a debate-driven democracy like Israel.
Besides issuing an urgent warning, The Last Israelis is so grounded in history
and current events—including real people, places, and events—that it provides an
entertaining way to become educated about the Middle East in general, and the
conflict between Israel and Iran in particular.
And in one crucial respect, this book is no fiction: a nuclear armed Iran is
very bad news, not just for Israel, as many think, but for the whole region and
stability of the world. Therefore, the world is obligated to act now to ensure
that the horrific scenario recounted in The Last Israelis never comes to pass.
Raymond Ibrahim is author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War in
Christians (published by Regnery in cooperation with Gatestone Institute, April
2013). He is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and an
associate fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Conflict in Syria.In Syria, Anger and Mockery as Obama
Delays
By Reem Makhoul and Will Storey/New York Times
BEIRUT, Lebanon — President Obama’s decision to seek Congressional approval for
a military strike in response to reports of a chemical weapons attack in Syria
drew a range of reactions from Syrians on Sunday, with rebel leaders expressing
disappointment and goverment leaders questioning Mr. Obama’s leadership.
President Obama has said that any attack would not involve American troops on
the ground in Syria.
Syria’s government on Sunday mocked Mr. Obama’s decision, saying it was a sign
of weakness. A state-run newspaper, Al Thawra, called it “the start of the
historic American retreat,” and said Mr. Obama had hesitated because of a “sense
of implicit defeat and the disappearance of his allies,” along with fears that
an intervention could become “an open war.”
Syria’s deputy foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad, told reporters in Damascus that
“it is clear there was a sense of hesitation and disappointment in what was said
by President Barack Obama yesterday. And it is also clear there was a sense of
confusion, as well.”
Many Syrian opposition leaders expressed disappointment about the move, and
called on Congress to approve a military strike. The leaders said any
intervention should be accompanied by more arms for the rebels.
“Dictatorships like Iran and North Korea are watching closely to see how the
free world responds to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons against the
Syrian people,” the opposition coalition said in a statement issued in Istanbul.
Still, some rebel leaders were angry. A member of Syria’s opposition National
Coalition, Samir Nachar, called Mr. Obama a “weak president who cannot make the
right decision when it comes to such an urgent crisis.” “We were expecting
things to be quicker,” Mr. Nachar told reporters, “that a strike would be
imminent.”
In the wider Arab world, still deeply divided over President Bashar al-Assad of
Syria and the uprising against him, the concern over his government’s
indiscriminate use of force coincided with antipathy about American
intervention. The Al-Azhar University in Cairo, considered Sunni Islam’s highest
authority, said on Sunday that it opposed an American strike on Syria, calling
such intervention “an aggression against the Arab and Islamic nation” that would
endanger peace and security in the region.
But the institution said it supported “the right of the Syrian people to decide
their destiny and their government for themselves in all freedom and
transparency,” and condemned “recourse to chemical weapons, whoever it was that
used them.” The Arab League was scheduled to meet and Washington was hoping to
win stronger statements against Mr. Assad. The group expelled Syria earlier in
the uprising but has stopped short of backing American action or blaming Mr.
Assad for any chemical weapons use.
For others, Mr. Obama’s decision raised questions about whether the United
States had diminished its leadership role in foreign affairs, with commentators
in Israel fearing a weakening of American resolve in confronting hostile powers.
The Israel newspaper Haaretz carried an analysis on Sunday by Amos Harel, a
military analyst, saying that Mr. Obama’s postponement of a military strike
against Syria suggested that he would be less likely to confront Iran on its
nuclear program going forward, and that in the Arab world, he would now be “seen
as weak, hesitant and vacillating.”
“The Obama administration’s conduct gives us insight into the strategic
challenge posed by Iran’s nuclear program,” the analysis said. “From an Israeli
point of view, the conclusion is far from encouraging. The theory that the U.S.
will come to Israel’s aid at the last minute, and attack Iran to lift the
nuclear threat, seems less and less likely.
“It’s no wonder that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is becoming increasingly
persuaded that no one will come to his aid if Iran suddenly announces that it is
beginning to enrich uranium to 90 percent,” it said.
Syria opposition says Assad deploying human shields for air
strikes
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has moved
military equipment and personnel to civilian areas and put prisoners in military
sites as human shields against any Western air strikes, the opposition said on
Sunday. The Istanbul-based opposition coalition said rockets, Scud missiles and
launchers as well as soldiers had been moved to locations including schools,
university dormitories and government buildings inside cities.
"Reports from inside Syria confirm that Assad has (also)ordered detainees to be
moved to military targets and to be used as human shields against possible
Western air strikes," the opposition coalition said in a statement.
Reuters could not independently verify the reports, and attempts to reach Syrian
officials for comment were unsuccessful.
Ex-soldiers told Reuters last week that military sites in Syria were being
packed with soldiers who had been effectively imprisoned by their superiors over
doubts about their loyalty, making them possible casualties in any U.S.-led air
strikes. Thousands of loyal security forces and militia, meanwhile, have moved
into schools and residential buildings in Damascus, mixing with the civilian
population in the hope of escaping a Western strike, residents say.
U.S. President Barack Obama said on Saturday he would seek congressional consent
before taking action against Damascus for its apparent use of chemical weapons,
a move likely to delay an attack for at least 10 days.
Critics say the delay is simply buying Assad more time.
The opposition coalition earlier called on the U.S. Congress to back a military
intervention and said international inaction during the conflict, now in its
third year, had emboldened Assad and allowed the violence to escalate.
(Writing by Nick Tattersall; Editing by Jon Boyle)
Linking Targets to Political Objectives in Syria
Chandler P. Atwood and Michael Knights/Washington Institute
August 30, 2013
If the United States strikes, it needs to choose targets and weapon systems
based on a strategic plan that is well explained to the world.
As Washington moves toward punitive action in Syria, the resultant military
operation will presumably take one of two forms: either token strikes aimed at
restoring the credibility of U.S. "redline" statements, or a serious attempt to
shape the Assad regime's intentions and military capabilities. If the latter
unfolds, the target selection process needs to be informed by a rigorous
discussion of strategic objectives and intended effects. At minimum, the most
likely intended outcome of U.S. and allied action will be to deter future use of
chemical weapons (CW). Yet a whole range of broader effects might also be sought
while the U.S. military is engaged, such as reducing regime attacks on civilians
generally, interdicting support from Iranian-backed Shiite proxies (e.g.,
Hezbollah), or even halting government offensives and fostering a ceasefire.
STRIKING CW TARGETS ONLY?
There are advantages to maintaining a clean focus on CW-related targets in any
strike operation, including the clear linkage between punishment and crime in
the eyes of the regime, the international community, and the U.S. public. Yet
the ideal option -- taking away the regime's ability to conduct CW attacks by
eliminating chemical stockpiles or delivery systems -- is probably not practical
outside general war conditions.
For one thing, the regime is likely still carrying out defensive measures such
field dispersal and frequent movement of stockpiles, making it extremely
difficult to find and target them without a full U.S. air campaign to gain
complete freedom of movement for persistent intelligence collection in Syrian
airspace. Definitive proof of CW eradication would also require U.S. boots on
the ground or unrestricted international inspections. In addition, efforts to
destroy most or all of the regime's CW delivery systems would probably be
stymied by the vast numbers of artillery pieces, rocket launchers, missiles, and
aircraft in Syria, which together constitute a very complex, geographically
dispersed target set.
STRIKING MILITARY UNITS
If the United States cannot take away the Assad regime's CW capability, all of
the alternative options exist in the murky domain of coercive targeting intended
to deter future CW use. For example, Washington could seek to shape the regime's
calculus by directly retaliating against the Damascus-based 4th Armored
Division, the force responsible for the August 21 CW attack. Specific targets
could include the division's headquarters, vehicle parks, and CW delivery
systems (missiles, artillery, and rockets).
An attack on such a dispersed target set would be difficult, but still well
within U.S. capabilities, and at low-to-medium risk. Syria's air defense network
seems robust on paper and would appear to offer a significant degree of
protection, but this is not necessarily the case in reality. Over the past few
months, Israel launched four airstrikes within Syria that surprised the regime
and were effectively unimpeded, including attacks on 4th Armored facilities near
Damascus. Although the United States has already lost strategic surprise, its
fourth-generation fighter aircraft and other assets are capable of achieving
local air superiority, destroying enemy air defenses, and interdicting fielded
forces and CW systems in defined areas. These aircraft carry very
high-resolution targeting pods and numerous small-diameter satellite-aided bombs
that are ideal for "plinking" individual enemy missiles, rocket launchers,
vehicles, and bunkers at extended ranges, outside of surface-to-air missile
engagement zones. Of course, the possibility of collateral damage and civilian
casualties cannot be dismissed given that some 4th Armored elements are
stationed in urban settings on the outskirts of Damascus.
Washington could also touch a nerve in the regime by decisively striking one of
Assad's most prized units, the 155th Brigade led by his brother Maher, located
in the center of Damascus. U.S. resolve would be underlined by a substantial
strike on Damascus using manned strike assets rather than just cruise missiles.
Such an approach would show the leadership that U.S. forces are willing to "go
downtown" into the regime's most heavily defended centers from day one. It could
also encourage regime elites to flee the capital, bolster rebel morale, and open
new avenues for rebel advances around Damascus.
BROADER TARGETING
If the U.S. government were willing to broaden its target list, it could signal
U.S. areas of concern while facilitating follow-on strikes if necessary.
Although leadership targeting would likely inflict the greatest shock, it is
extremely difficult to do with precision. For example, it could result in
accidental (but intentional-looking) decapitation of the leadership or a notable
failure that creates a "rally around the flag" effect, making the leadership
appear heroic and U.S. strikes seem weak. Elements such as regime propaganda
outlets may also be too difficult to suppress, as was the case during Operation
Iraqi Freedom and Operation Allied Force in Kosovo.
Yet some symbolic targets linked to regime attacks on civilians may be worth
addressing, notably Air Force Intelligence headquarters, military airbases at
Dumair, Saiqal, Tiyas, and Hama, and the new Iran-financed, Hezbollah-trained
"People's Army" units. Various air defense systems and secure-communication
facilities may also be worth striking in order to make follow-on attacks less
risky for U.S. forces.
IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY
If a strike is to be more than a token move, U.S. leaders need to approve
targeting that sends the most menacing message possible to the Assad regime.
Success is more likely if Washington surprises the regime by accepting greater
risks than anticipated, or by causing unexpectedly heavy damage that shifts the
local balance of power against Assad on a crucial battlefield. A strike would
also stand a better chance of influencing the regime's behavior if it opens the
way for follow-on operations.
Post-attack information operations will be as important as the strikes. Clearly
explaining the rationale for hitting certain targets is crucial if Washington
hopes to influence the regime. For instance, by signaling that they want to give
Syrian civilians greater protection in general, U.S. officials may convince the
regime to regard certain tactics (e.g., chemical attacks) as out of bounds.
Evidence of coalition-building for larger follow-on strikes would also be
valuable, since a full air campaign -- a key threat to develop -- would require
extensive airbase availability from a multitude of allies.
In sum, the Assad regime needs to understand that U.S. attacks may not unfold in
a linear or predictable fashion. Put another way, Washington should prevent
Assad from concluding that he can selectively trade occasional CW attacks for
limited U.S. strikes -- a ratio the regime may be willing to bear. Instead,
Assad must be convinced that any U.S. strike is the opening move of a broader
campaign that only the regime has the power to arrest by changing its behavior.
Maj. Chandler Atwood, USAF, is a Visiting Military Fellow at The Washington
Institute. Michael Knights is a Boston-based Lafer Fellow with the Institute.
The conclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the
authors; they do not reflect the official position of the U.S. government,
Department of Defense, U.S. Air Force, or Air University.