November 18, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: A Syrian helicopter gunship raided Monday the Bekaa Valley border town of Arsal, killing two of the mayor’s relatives, security sources said. The sources told The Daily Star that “according to information obtained by police” Youssef Hujeiri, 31, and his brother Khaled, 33, were killed in a helicopter gunship raid over Wadi Mira on Arsal’s outskirts. They said the brothers are relatives of Arsal’s mayor, Ali Hujeiri.  The bodies were taken to a hospital in Arsal, the sources added. Arsal, a northeastern town on the border with Syria, has in the last couple of the days seen a significant influx of refugees fleeing villages in the Qalamoun, a mountainous region roughly north of Damascus which is expected to be the next front between rebels and forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Charbel Considers Security Situation in Tripoli 'Priority', Says Security Forces to Maintain Stability
Naharnet Newsdesk 18 November 2013/Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel stressed on Monday that the Internal Security Forces and the Lebanese army will enter the northern city of Tripoli and take its role in maintaining the city's security and stability. He pointed out in comments published in As Safir newspaper that the security situation in Tripoli “is a priority.”“We will not raid any areas but we will detain those who are wanted if they passed on checkpoints,” Charbel told the newspaper. Charbel reiterated calls on the residents of Tripoli to support the Lebanese army. On Saturday the caretaker Minister launched stage-two of a security plan to be implemented in the inflamed city of Tripoli that has been witnessing frequent Syria-linked battles, that pits Sunnis from Bab al-Tabbaneh against Alawites in Jabal Mohsen. However, hours after Charbel's conference clashes flared up between gunmen and a security checkpoint in the Old Saraya vicinity in Tripoli, marring stage-two of the security plan. Most Sunnis support Syria's revolt against President Bashar Assad, while Alawites, who belong to the same Shiite-offshoot sect as Assad, support his regime. The latest fighting ended when the army deployed along Syria Street, which separates the two districts and acts as the makeshift frontline. Tripoli suffered horrific car bomb explosions near two mosques in August, killing 45 people.

ISF Begin Deployment in Rival Neighborhoods in Tripoli
Naharnet Newsdesk 18 November 2013/Internal Security Forces units began deploying in the neighborhoods of the northern city of Tripoli on Monday to implement phase two of a security plan that aims at maintaining stability in the city. Units will be deployed in various neighborhoods of the city, including the rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen. According to the state-run National News Agency police chief of the northern city of Tripoli Brig. Gen. Bassam al-Ayyoubi supervised the deployment of the forces, which will be accompanied by armored personnel carriers. “We will establish fixed checkpoints in Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh and mobile patrols between the two neighborhoods,” Ayyoubi said. He also pointed out that all parties welcomed the security plan. On Saturday the caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel launched stage-two of a security plan to be implemented in the inflamed city of Tripoli that has been witnessing frequent Syria-linked battles, that pits Sunnis from Bab al-Tabbaneh against Alawites in Jabal Mohsen.
He called on the resident of the northern city of Tripoli to cooperate with security forces to maintain security in the city, urging officials to resolve their political disputes during a national dialogue session.
However, hours after Charbel's conference clashes flared up between gunmen and a security checkpoint in the Old Saraya vicinity in Tripoli. Most Sunnis support Syria's revolt against President Bashar Assad, while Alawites, who belong to the same Shiite-offshoot sect as Assad, support his regime. The latest fighting ended when the army deployed along Syria Street, which separates the two districts and acts as the makeshift frontline.
Tripoli suffered horrific car bomb explosions near two mosques in August, killing 45 people. As Safir newspaper reported on Monday that Army Chief General Jean Qahwaji informed officials that army checkpoints and stations in Tripoli, in particular on the entrances of Bab al-Tabbaneh, will not be moved. “The army will be ready to act, when needed, to support the Internal Security Forces,” Qahwaji said according to As Safir.

Nuclear deal may sink in Geneva between hardline pressures in Tehran and tough Franco-Israel demands

http://www.debka.com/article/23451/Nuclear-deal-may-sink-in-Geneva-between-hardline-pressures-in-Tehran-and-tough-Franco-Israel-demands

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2013/Washington and Moscow may sound upbeat about the prospects of a signed interim deal at the next round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the six powers in Geneva Wednesday, Nov. 20. However, according to debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources, the way ahead is still bristling with mines, more so even than the first round. Both sides have toughened their positions. In Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif face threats against yielding to Western demands. On the other side, Washington accuses France and Israel of obstructionism to get its proposal removed from the table. Our Iranian sources have obtained exclusive access to the decision reached early Monday, Nov. 18, at an all-night conference in the bureau of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This meeting delineated Iran’s ultimate line in Geneva as being consent to idle for six months the few thousand new extra-fast IR2 centrifuges enriching uranium up to 20 percent, after which work would resume in full. Tehran draws the line completely at halting construction of the heavy water plant in Arak.
Iran’s leaders are convinced that the “modest’ sanctions offered by Washington – and which the US denies are worth $40 bn as Israel has calculated – can be substantially sweetened when it comes to the point. The ayatollah, after seeing that the country is broke from the figures shown him by Rouhani and Zarif, accepted the urgency of relaxing banking and financial restrictions, as Zarif had demanded of the Americans. This relaxation alone would put $100 bn in Iran’s coffers. This amount would keep the economy ticking over for a year and give the Islamic regime another lease of life to calm a populace ready to kick back over economic hardships.
About to mark his first 100 days in office, Rouhani badly needs to show he can make good on his pre-election pledges of economic improvements.  Responding to the complaints of hard-liners at home, Foreign Minister Zarif took up a tough negotiating stance in a comment he made Sunday, Nov. 17: “Not only do we consider that Iran’s right to enrich is non-negotiable,” he said, “but we see no need for that to be recognized as a right” because this right is inalienable and all countries must respect that. Both he and Rouhani fear their own heads will roll if they are shown yielding to the West on uranium enrichment or the reduction of stocks.
Zarif therefore tried his hand at a formula that would not require Iran to renounce enrichment while at the same time obtaining sanctions relief: The two sides will announce an interim accord has been reached in Geneva that covers certain issues and leaves some disputed items unresolved. Implementation must go forward without delay on the agreed items. The Iranian foreign minister explained to the Obama administration in the quiet bargaining leading up to the formal Geneva conference that a deal must be struck and implemented without delay to head off domestic opposition to any understanding he might conclude with Washington. Administration officials were about to concede on this point to the Iranian negotiators when they ran into French resistance. Sunday, Nov. 17, the day he arrived in Israel for a three-day state visit, French President Francois went into conference with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, after which he laid out four points, “which for us are essential to guarantee any agreement:" 1) All of Iranian nuclear installations must be placed under international supervision right now.
2) 20-percent enriched uranium enrichment must be suspended.
3) Existing stocks must be reduced.
This can only be done by exporting a part of this stock or placing it under international control.
4) Construction of the Arak (heavy water) plant to be halted.
Netanyahu, for his part, criticized the emerging deal, without citing the US role, as a permit for Iran to continue manufacturing enough fissile material for assembling a nuclear bomb at three weeks to 26 days’ notice. A good deal, in his view, would dismantle Iran’s capacity to achieve this quantity of fissile material. He repeated that Israel would not be bound by a bad deal and reserved the right to self defense, by itself.
Yakov Amidror – until recently Netanyahu’s national security adviser - said that the Israeli Air Force had for years been practicing long-range flights in preparation for covering the 2,000km distance to Iran for a potential air strike on its nuclear facilities.
In an interview run by the Financial Times Monday, he said that these drills must show up on any Middle East radar screen. Amidror went on to say: We aren’t America, which obviously has greater capabilities than we do, but we still have sufficient to stall the Iranian program for a long time.
debkafile’s military sources add: Amidror’s remarks followed the latest US intelligence report which evaluates Israel’s capacity in a lone attack on Iran to stall Iran’s nuclear program for seven to 10 years.


Lebanon poised for ‘most dangerous’ juncture in its history
November 18, 2013/By Antoine Ghattas Saab The Daily Star
The next six months could prove to be the most dangerous in Lebanon’s rather tumultuous history. The period may witness the repositioning of political forces on the extremely complex Lebanese geography with a view to reaching the stage to reconstitute the Lebanese ruling system according to new foundations that would not replace the old constitutional principles, according to a Western diplomatic report.
The report, received by government officials, said that the apparent political escalation in the attitudes of internal parties, at the forefront of which is Hezbollah and its Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, is viewed as a pre-emptive war for the much-anticipated Qalamoun battle (near Lebanon’s border). The signal for this battle came last week when the Bekaa Valley town of Arsal and the valley of Nabi Sheet were targeted by the warring factions in Syria. This development increased the worries of the Lebanese over dragging Lebanon into the Syrian crisis. The report links Nasrallah’s escalatory tone to the ongoing negotiations between America and the P5+1 group on the one hand, and Iran on the other, over Tehran’s nuclear program. The Western-Iranian discussions will not be confined to Tehran’s nuclear drive, but will also cover the war in Syria, the situation in the region, as well as the issue of Hezbollah’s arms, the report said. It added that the downhill trend in the work of state institutions, along with its administrative, economic and social issues, had reached an alarming rate that is threatening the foundation of the Lebanese entity. Arab and Western countries will work to establish an external safety net designed to prevent the collapse of the Lebanese state, the report said. It described the latest political escalation between the Future Movement and Hezbollah as a storm before the lull. The report hinted at a positive atmosphere that is emerging on the horizon of American-Iranian negotiations, whereby Tehran might soon present proposals pertaining to divisive issues with the West, a development that would impact the region and change political alliances in it. Taking into account U.S. expectations to reach an American-Iranian agreement within two weeks at the latest, the report stressed that America would not abandon the Arab Gulf states and the Gulf region which is vital for U.S. interests. American-Western attempts are underway to bring about a sort of Saudi-Iranian understanding at least to manage the divisive issues between them in the region, the report said. This matter (Saudi-Iran understanding) is not ruled out following the resumption of contacts between Iran and the United Arab Emirates over the three disputed islands. The report warned that allowing paralysis and vacuum to hit state institutions, a state of affairs that might reach the presidency, portends big dangers that could undermine the foundations of the Lebanese entity and civil peace, already affected by the Syrian crisis, especially with the influx of over 1 million refugees into Lebanon.
Nevertheless, the region and Lebanon appear to be heading toward peaceful solutions, the report said, despite the escalatory rhetoric of some parties. Political sources linked the diplomatic report to the recent stances of Speaker Nabih Berri and Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun. Berri had said the Lebanese ruling system had become “a creator of strife,” while Aoun launched the most blistering attack on the 1989 Taif Accord, describing it as “an accord of fraud to consolidate foreign grip over Lebanon.” What was a taboo – talking about the Muslim-Christian coexistence formula and the Lebanese system – has become a topic of criticism by a wide spectrum of the Lebanese, the sources said, recalling repeated calls by Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai for “a new social contract.” The sources said that internal and external groups have information about a scenario being promoted by Hezbollah’s power center that would prevent the formation of a new Cabinet and try to keep caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Cabinet in place with the aim of using “the Mikati Cabinet” card as bargaining chip in next year’s presidential election. With this card, Hezbollah and its March 8 allies can present the March 14 coalition and the country with two choices: Either an agreement on a comprehensive political deal that includes a consensus on the name of the next president, the shape of the new Cabinet, and a new election law, or total vacuum. If the country were faced with total vacuum, Hezbollah, backed by Berri, would smoothly propose the idea of a constituent conference, the sources added.Meanwhile, developments in Lebanon, Syria and the region will be discussed by a delegation of March 8 parties during a meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad this week.

American Regression and Arab Weakness
Abdullah Iskandar/Al Hayat
The Americans are regressing, deliberately and openly, in the Middle East. This comes after decades of active and hegemonic presence, reaching its pinnacle in an American monopoly on the region’s affairs following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Such regression will not be compensated by cooperation agreements that seek to salvage a few economic interests, as well as a few military locations within the framework of the war on terror.
There is a visible and increasingly clear outcome to such regression, regardless of the reasons for it, whether they spring from the impact of the tremendous economic burden borne by the United States in its recent wars, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq, or from a decision made by the current administration, with its new approach to America’s interests in the world.
The outcome is the vacuum left by the withdrawal of the United States – a vacuum that is seeking sources to fill it, from outside the region and from within it, and is thus giving rise to a complex struggle and a new intertwinement of interests. Positions of traditional rivalry with the United States seem to be the ones most actively seeking to inherit its waning role. This is especially true as Europe, with the relations it has traditionally had in the region, no longer has the means to restore its past role, having lost it to American expansion after World War II – especially as its economic and military situation is suffering from a series of structural crises, even if it is trying to preserve a minimum of markets and economic interests, particularly in the field of energy supply.
Russia makes no secret of its aspirations to fill some of the vacuum left by the United States, or even all of it, especially after the disappearance of the ideological factor, which had prevented the spread of Soviet influence during the Cold War. Putin’s Russia believes itself to have the ability and the right to have such aspirations, in view of its geopolitical position and economic capabilities, especially in the fields of energy and military industries.
While Turkey has begun receding as well, after a phase of expansion, Iran is renewing its diplomatic assault with its new government lineup headed by President Hassan Rohani. Even more, Tehran sees an irreplaceable opportunity for it to benefit from America’s regression. On the one hand, it considers itself to be responsible for this regression, as a result of the role it has played in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon, and on the other is prepared to negotiate with Washington, in order to facilitate the process of regression, as it did with the military withdrawal from Iraq.
There is another party that also seeks to ascribe to itself forcing the United States to withdraw from the region, and that is Al-Qaeda and its various branches spread across the region from Pakistan to Morocco. And with increased American regression in the region, the group will turn increasingly towards the interior, making it less of a threat to the United States, which is in turn restructuring its policy on combating terrorism on the basis of this new factor. On the background of such a struggle, as it witnesses a heated race to fill the vacuum left by the Americans, the Arabs seem to be most prominently absent. Indeed, the Arabs have no solid core with a clear strategy for self-preservation, nor is there a regional Arab force with a serious political project that could form a polarizing element, despite the presence of elements similar to such a force at both the economic and human levels.
The fate of filling the space left by America’s regression thus remains connected to the limits of the simultaneous negotiations between the United States and Russia and between the United States and Iran – the former having resulted in preparing for Geneva II in order to reach a solution in Syria, and the latter being aimed at resolving the crisis between Iran and the West. In other words, it is a matter of attempting to reach an understanding on resolving the issues in the region that are most pressing and of the greatest interest.
Thus, if the Arabs are concerned about such negotiations, their concerns are justified, even if these negotiations are tortuous and their results unguaranteed in any one direction. But it would be more useful to wonder about the reasons why the Arabs have been excluded from them – in other words, to wonder about the weaknesses of the Arabs and how they can be addressed, instead of lamenting about friends stabbing each other in the back. And if a regional Arab force and a new Arab order, with the ability to take action and to fill some of the vacuum left by America’s regression, fail to take shape, the debate will remain restricted between Iran’s diplomatic and field assault and its counterpart from Al-Qaeda. The two may clash at times and collaborate at others, but the trend towards fundamentalism remains dominant.
 

Prominent Syrian rebel group says its leader has died of shrapnel wounds sustained last week
By Diaa Hadid, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press – BEIRUT - The leader of one of Syria's most prominent rebel units died early Monday of shrapnel wounds sustained during shelling by government troops last week, his group said. The death of Abdul-Qadir Saleh, founder of the Tawhid Brigade, was another blow to the rebels, reeling from a series of recent battlefield losses to President Bashar Assad's forces.
Government troops have made headway against the rebels on two key fronts, capturing a string of opposition-held suburbs south of Damascus and taking two towns and a military base outside the northern city of Aleppo.
The Tawhid Brigade is one of Syria's better-known and stronger rebel groups, with an estimated 10,000 fighters. It's one of the main rebel groups in Aleppo province. Under Saleh's command, the group last year pushed into the provincial capital, Aleppo, seizing large sections of the city for the rebels. On Thursday night, government forces targeted its command post in Aleppo province. The 34-year-old Saleh was severely wounded and later died in a hospital in Turkey, said a brigade spokesmen who goes by the name of Akram al-Halaby. Many rebels do not use their real names, fearing they or their families would be identified and targeted by security forces
The shelling also killed the brigade officer, Abu Tayeb, and wounded another spokesman, Saleh Anadan. Saleh's body was quickly returned to Syria and he was buried in his hometown of Marea in Aleppo province, al-Halaby said. The brigade's political chief, Abdul-Aziz Salameh, who was lightly wounded in Thursday's shelling, was appointed to succeed Saleh, the spokesman said.
The Tawhid Brigade was once a part of the Free Syrian Army, considered to be the military wing of Syria's exiled Western-backed opposition. But in September, the brigade broke away and later formed the Islamic Authority, a coalition of Islamic rebel groups, including one linked to al-Qaida. Saleh's death was also confirmed Monday by Rami Abdurrahman of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which collects information from a network of activists on the ground. Saleh's trajectory reflected that of many rebels who joined the armed uprising against Assad's rule. He was a married merchant who took part in peaceful demonstrations that began in March 2011. After a violent crackdown by security forces, Syria's conflict became an armed uprising and Saleh turned to guns.
He founded the Tawhid — or Unity — Brigade some 10 days before rebels seized parts of Aleppo, al-Halaby said. A video uploaded to social media networks in 2012 shows Saleh flinching as a bomb drops near his headquarters in Aleppo province. His comrades call on him to rush inside a building for protection, but he insists on standing outside, saying: "Nobody dies until God gives him his life, and his date of death."
Syria's rebels are currently on the defensive in a high-stakes battle in the mountainous region of Qalamoun on the Lebanese border. There, government forces are trying to cut off a supply route for rebels, centred around the town of Qara. But the rebels are still capable of carrying out large attacks and the opposition remains firmly entrenched in other areas around Damascus. A massive explosion Sunday levelled a government office in the northeastern suburb of Harasta, killing at least 31 soldiers, according to the Observatory. Three brigadiers and one major general were among the dead, according to the Observatory's Abdurrahman. There was no confirmation from government officials or state media on the attack.
 

Iran unveils aircraft claimed to be biggest drone yet developed, capable of 30-hour flight
By Ali Akbar Dareini, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press – TEHRAN, Iran - Iran unveiled a new aircraft Monday that it says is the biggest drone yet to be developed in the Islamic Republic, capable of staying aloft for up to 30 hours. Defence Minister Hossein Dehghan said the reconnaissance and combat drone Fotros has a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250 miles). That would cover much of the Middle East including Israel. The earlier Shahed-129 (Witness-129) drone is reported to have a similar range, but can only stay aloft 24 hours. "This drone is able to carry out reconnaissance missions and carry air-to-surface rockets for combat operations," the official IRNA news agency quoted Dehghan as saying. Dehghan said scientists at Iranian Aircraft Manufacturing Industries, affiliated to Iran's Defence Ministry, have designed and developed the drone. He said the country has achieved self-sufficiency in building drones but didn't elaborate. Iran has pursued a military self-sufficiency program since 1980s, and frequently announces technological breakthroughs including the building of jet fighters, tanks, missile, submarines, torpedoes and drones. Most cannot be independently confirmed. He said the new drone is a key strategic addition to Iran's military capabilities, and was developed despite tough sanctions against Iran over its suspect nuclear program. "Sanctions by enemies can't create an obstacle in the path of progress for our defence industries," IRNA quoted him as saying. The sanctions were imposed on Iran for its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, a program that can be used to produce nuclear fuel or materials for a warhead. The country says it is fighting an intelligence battle with the U.S. and Israel, which accuse Tehran of seeking to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Iran denies the charges, saying its nuclear program is peaceful and geared toward generating electricity and producing radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.

Libya: Serial deadlines
November 18, 2013/The Daily Star
A weekend of bloodshed in the Libyan capital represents merely the latest wake-up call for that country’s authorities, and officials elsewhere, that the situation is rapidly getting out of hand. There is no need to spell out what is going wrong; anyone who’s read anything about Libya over the past year will be fully aware of the problem: a lack of strong state security institutions and an effective national army. Statement after statement by Libyan and non-Libyan officials point to these serious challenges, but no one appears to have come up with a feasible solution. It isn’t that the Libyan authorities have done nothing to bring the situation under control – they have announced deadline after deadline for militiamen to return to the fold of the state, but the fact that they have had to announce deadline after deadline means the policy hasn’t worked. The only thing new in the situation in Libya is the brazen and horrific sight of militiamen gunning down dozens of people – who had come out to peacefully protest against the militias Friday – in cold blood. The rest of the weekend saw more violence, as well as the disappearance, and presumed kidnapping, of a senior state security official, at the hands of a militia. Libya’s post-Moammar Gadhafi political class is in the grip of these militias, which means that it’s easy to understand how politicians have failed to rein them in. But Friday’s explosion indicates that while politicians might prefer to stall and hope for the best, the Libyan people have reached the end of their rope.
The other “newsworthy” event in Libya these days is the country’s growing infamy for being a launching pad for desperate migrants willing to risk their lives to travel to the other side of the Mediterranean, and again, Libya’s unscrupulous militias are involved. Libyan officials aren’t in an enviable position. They face the threat of Al-Qaeda-inspired militants active in North Africa and African countries bordering the region, as well as their own, long-standing national problems of how to incorporate feuding regions, tribal groups and the Berber minority into a durable national political system. But if they are to continue in office, they must find a solution, and quickly, or else step aside for others to do the job. One point of view in the Middle East holds that there is a “plot” underway to divide countries like Libya into smaller entities; many people might dismiss the conspiracy-theory brand of analysis, but the performance of Libyan officials raises serious doubts as to whether this trend isn’t actually underway already. The international community offered either verbal or material support to the rebels who ended the Gadhafi era, and it should also do everything possible to halt and reverse the state of affairs in Libya today, because conditions there will have repercussions for a whole range of anxious neighbors.