Muddled Israeli-US policies on Assad set stage for Golan offensive against Israel
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis May 18, 2013,/

http://www.debka.com/article/22978/Muddled-Israeli-US-policies-on-Assad-set-stage-for-Golan-offensive-against-Israel-
Four days after a “senior Israeli official” warned Assad through The New York Times of Wednesday, May 15 that he risks forfeiting power if he retaliates for Israeli attacks on weapons supplies to terrorists, “Israeli officials” were telling the London Times of Saturday, May 18 something quite different: “An intact, but weakened, Assad regime would be preferable,” they said. “Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine if… extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there.”
The night before this report, Fox News aired footage appearing to show Israeli commandos inside Syria racing back on foot to Israeli territory.
Without going into whether the two sets of “Israeli officials” were one and the same, their utterances are clearly making Israel’s policy-makers and defense leaders look muddled and uncertain – or, worse, unable to think clearly – about how to cope with the menace building up on the Syrian Golan. This could take the form of a Syrian war of attrition and/or a Hizballah offensive against Upper and Western Galilee.
At all events, the Syrian civil conflict appears poised ready to spill over to one or more of its neighbors, starting with Israel as a result of six factors:
1. President Barack Obama’s inability to make up his mind on whether the US should intervene militarily in Syria – even in a limited way, such as the imposition of no-fly zones or finding a way to supply non-Islamist Syrian rebel groups with sorely needed weapons.
2. The US president’s refusal to recognize that chemical weapons have already been used in Syria. His reaction to the file put before him in the White House Friday, May 17, by Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan - with evidence from physicians treating wounded Syrians - remained dismissive. “The US has seen evidence of chemical weapons being used in Syria,” he said, adding however, “it is important to get more specific details about alleged chemical attacks.”
This comment was interpreted as the US president’s acceptance of the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian war so long as it was on a limited scale. Obama, like Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, has therefore waved away another red line for military intervention in the Syria conflict, by closing his eyes to the evidence.
Former Israeli defense minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer was more realistic last week when he brusquely brushed aside a radio interviewer’s query by saying: Of course, Assad has used chemical weapons and isn't it obvious that he has already transferred to Hizballah both chemical substances and other advanced weapons?
3. Following again in American footsteps, Israel failed to prevent Russia sending advanced S-300 anti-air and Yakhont anti-ship missiles to the Assad regime – both improved versions which were outfitted with sophisticated radar to improve their range and precision.
When Netanyahu was challenged with failing in this mission in his May 14 trip to buttonhole Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, he said only that he would “travel wherever is needed and talk to whoever is needed to keep Israel safe and secure.”
This was the closest he came to admitting that he had fallen down on his efforts for keeping advanced Russian weaponry out of Syrian hands.
4. Strategic errors, which may turn out to be irreversible, because they emanated from faulty assessments shared by Israel and the Obama administration of the strengths on the Syrian battlefield. To this day, the US, Israel and Turkey cling to the belief that Assad’s days are numbered and refuse to recognize the steady advances made by the Syrian army in its counter-offensive for dislodging the rebels from land they captured in more than two years of combat.
5. This misreading of the Syrian ruler’s survivability is part and parcel of the omission by Obama, Netanyahu and Erdogan to appreciate and counter two major strategic changes overtaking the region:
a) They stood aside as Moscow, Tehran and Hizballah deepened their military commitments to Assad’s fight for survival – starting with the arrival of Russian military personnel in Syria to man the sophisticated missiles supplied by Moscow until Syrian crews were instructed in their use.
They didn’t raise a finger to interfere with the almost daily Russian and Iranian air lifts to Syrian air bases of complete brigades of elite Hizballah fighters and thousands of Iranian Bassij militiamen who now control key war sectors.
Washington Jerusalem and even Jordan sat on their hands when 3,000 Iraqi members of the Asai’b al-Haq (League of the Righteous) and Kataib Hizballah poured across the border into Syria to support Assad’s war on the Syrian rebellion.
b) Because they kept their distance from all these strategic game-changers in and around Syria, the US and Israel lost their chance to break up the Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah alliance. This objective the Obama administration once offered as his priority and the pretext for avoiding military action against a nuclear Iran.
What Washington achieved by its hands-off stance on Syria was the very opposite: Instead of weakening the triple alliance, Obama has allowed it to be bolstered by Russian and Iraqi increments.
It is no wonder, therefore, that Moscow, Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah are behaving like winners and gearing up for the next stage of the Syrian war, which, if Tehran and Hizballah have their way, will evolve into a war of attrition against Israel waged from the Syrian Golan.
The opening shot was fired Wednesday, May 15 by a Palestinian terrorist front under Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah tutelage, which shelled an Israeli military observation post on Mt. Hermon. This attack drew no direct Israeli response - par for the course.
6. A war of attrition against Israel from the Golan would not be a new experience either for Damascus or Moscow. In 1974, from March to May, Syrian forces, refusing to accept the defeat of their 1973 offensive against Israel, launched a harsh war of attrition from the same enclave, on the advice of their Soviet patron. In what became know as “the little war,” Syrian forces kept Israeli Golan under heavy shelling barrages and tried repeatedly to capture Mt Hermon.
The big secret of that short-lived conflict was the deployment by the Soviet Union of two Cuban armored brigades on the Golan front against Israel, airlifted in from Angola. All the same, Damascus was forced to accept a ceasefire on Golan which was observed from that day on until the present.
This time, the big difference is that Moscow can leave the heavy-lifting for a limited war on Israel to Tehran and Hizballah.
Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah in one of his fiery speeches expressed eagerness to make the Golan his new front for war on Israel. And Friday, May 17, it was reported in Tehran that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had entrusted Al Qods Brigades commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani with the task of sending troops to the Golan to embark on hostilities against Israel.
Once they begin, it will be hard to stop the violence from spreading to Israel’s borders with Lebanon, from Syria into Turkey and from Jordan into Syria and Iraq.

Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel Says to Open Door for Parliamentary Candidates on Monday
Naharnet/Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel revealed on Saturday that candidacies for the parliamentary elections can be submitted starting Monday as he is holding on the role undertaken by his ministry to implement the law and play its role. “If (lawmakers) failed to reach common ground on a new electoral law we will adopt a modified version of the 1960 electoral law,” Charbel said in comments to Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5). He slammed discussions in the electoral subcommittee over the possibility of extending the mandate of the current parliament, describing such an endeavor as “wrong.” Consultations are ongoing among the Lebanese foes to reach an agreement on a new electoral law that would govern the upcoming parliamentary elections despite media reports saying that the foes are already discussing the possibility of extending the parliament's tenure. The parliament's electoral subcommittee has been holding consecutive meetings since Wednesday under the auspices of Speaker Nabih Berri in an attempt to reach consensus over the matter. An amended version of the 1960 law was adopted in the 2009 parliamentary elections, but the majority of the political blocs are refusing to adopt it for this year's polls. The Orthodox Gathering law has meanwhile been rejected by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, the Mustaqbal bloc, MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, and independent Christian March 14 MPs. The Orthodox draft law, which considers Lebanon a single electoral district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional representation system, is strongly backed by Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement.

LF, Future to submit candidacies for June polls
May 18, 2013/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: The Parliament subcommittee tackling electoral proposals resumed its work Saturday as the Lebanese Forces and Future Movement said they would submit candidacies under the divisive 1960 law. Saturday’s session comes a day after lawmakers failed yet again to reach a deal over a new electoral to govern the upcoming elections which are due in June. Those who want to run for the elections have a week left to submit their applications with the deadline for filing candidacies being May 25. Prior to the Saturday morning session, both the Lebanese Forces and Future Movement said they would begin submitting candidacies under the 1960 law. “The Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement will submit their candidacies based on the 1960 law not because we want such a voting system but so that we do not allow anyone to win uncontested,” LF MP George Adwan, a member of the subcommittee, told reporters in Parliament. Future Movement MP Ahmad Fatfat echoed a similar stance after the session which lasted for around three hours. But he said hopefuls of his group would not submit their candidacies before another subcommittee session on Monday. "We will not submit our candidacies as long as there are subcommittee sessions, out of self-respect and for the sessions," Fatfat said. "But we have time till [next] Saturday to submit our candidacies," he added. MP Ali Fayyad, from Hezbollah’s Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, said his bloc would issue its position regarding the Future and LF announcements Sunday. Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel told a local television station that given the failure to reach a new electoral law, the 1960 law that was used in the 2009 parliamentary elections was still in effect and that candidates would be eligible to submit their candidacies based on it. He added that preparations for the elections under the 1960 law would require no more than a month. An amended version of the 1960 law was adopted in the previous general elections but the majority of the political blocs want it replaced with a new law. MP Alain Aoun, from Michel Aoun's parliamentary bloc, said after the session that talks between rival groups over an election law have not produced any tangible results. "We have reached a dead end, every group has now to think of what bitter choices to make, participating in elections under the 1960 law or extending the term of Parliament," Aoun said. Ali Hasan Khalil, from Speaker Berri’s parliamentary bloc, said there was no consensus on extending Parliament’s term and “we have two weeks to do so if we agree to the extension.”
In April, the Progressive Socialist Party submitted applications for its candidates to the Interior Ministry on the basis of the 1960 law. Other independent MPs have also submitted requests to run in the polls. Parliament’s subcommittee has been holding extensive talks since Wednesday after the Orthodox Gathering proposal lost the majority it once enjoyed. The failure of MPs to reach a new electoral law has raised the likelihood of extending Parliament’s four-year mandate, which expires on June 20, or holding the June polls based on the 1960 law. Given the lack of consensus among rival MPs, Speaker Nabih Berri vowed Friday not to convene the General Assembly unless MPs agreed either on a new law or on extending Parliament’s mandate. A parliamentary source on Friday downplayed the subcommittee’s Saturday meeting, expecting no important outcome from the talks. Meanwhile, President Michel Sleiman discussed with visitors to Baabda Palace recent developments in the country and the importance of forming the new Cabinet and reaching a new law for the elections.
 

SANA Says Two Lebanese Killed in Tall Kalakh
Naharnet/The forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad thwarted an attempt by “terrorists” to infiltrate into Syrian territories on Saturday, state-run SANA news agency reported, announcing the death of two of the group members. According to SANA, the “terrorist group” was sneaking into the town of Tall Kalakh near the border with Lebanon. “The Syrian forces thwarted an attempt by terrorists to enter its territories in an ambush in the town of Tall Kalakh,” the news agency added. It pointed out that two of the group's members were killed in the ambush and the army confiscated the weapons in their possession, while the rest of the “terrorist group's” members were able to flee. Lebanon and Syria share a 330-kilometer border but have yet to agree on official demarcation. Meanwhile, The Free Syrian Army announced the death of ten Hizbullah members who were trying to infiltrate into the fields of al-Qusayr. According to VDL (100.5), the FSA announced the death of Hizbullah fighters in an ambush in the town of Qusayr in Homs near the border with Lebanon.
On Tuesday, Syria's opposition National Coalition demanded Lebanon to control the border and secure the withdrawal of Hizbullah fighters from the neighboring country, warning that 30,000 civilians in the rebel-held town of Qusayr faced an "extremely dangerous situation." Hizbullah, an Assad ally, has dispatched its fighters to battle alongside regime troops in the Qusayr region. Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah declared that his party "will not hesitate" to help the Lebanese residents of Qusayr in their confrontation with Syrian rebels.  "30,000 Lebanese Muslims and Christians were targeted, torched and prevented from going to work" at the hands of Syrian rebels in Qusayr, Nasrallah said. The area is of key strategic importance because it runs along the border with Lebanon and is near the route running from Damascus to the coast.
Hizbullah says that its members who are fighting in Homs province are Shiite residents of Syrian border towns engaged in self-defense against rebel forces. Fighting in the area has spilled over into Lebanon, with rebels targeting border towns inside Lebanon in response to Hizbullah involvement in the conflict.

Geagea Calls for Parliament Session to Vote on Hybrid Draft, Urges FPM Lawmakers to Attend
Naharnet /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea stated on Saturday that the only solution for the current political deadlock is for the parliament to convene and vote on a electoral law, urging the Free Patriotic Movement's lawmakers to be present at the session. “One of the options for an electoral law that can be discussed at the parliament is the hybrid proposal we came forward with three or four days ago,” Geagea said in a interview with Free Lebanon Radio. He added: “Those who have comments on it can discuss them during the parliamentary session.”“We cannot keep obstructing everything awaiting consensus between all Lebanese factions.”
Geagea urged the FPM MPs to attend the parliament's session, as “convening depends on their presence.”“If they do not accept to attend the session, we are then in front of two options which are either adopting the 1960's law or extending the parliament's term,” the LF leader warned. “We do not support any of these two options.”The electoral subcommittee adjourned on Saturday its meeting for further consultations over a new electoral law as the rival parties failed once again to reach common ground over the matter. In its seventh round of talks the subcommittee reached a standstill after discussions reflected the sharp differences between lawmakers on the adoption of a consensual vote law.The session, which was held under the auspices of Speaker Nabih Berri, was adjourned to Monday.Source/Naharnet.

March 14 Independent MPs to Submit Candidacies if Electoral Subcommittee Fails to Reach Consensus
Naharnet/Independent March 14 lawmakers considered on Saturday that the meetings of the electoral subcommittee will lead to vacuum as foes are sharply divided over the new electoral law, pointing out that they may run their candidacies based on the 1960 law if the rivals fail to agree on an vote law. The MPs hailed the efforts exerted by the rival parties to facilitate holding a parliamentary session to agree on an electoral law, expressing concern over the discussions between the electoral subcommittee members on the extension of the parliament's term. “Our political system is based on voting and the majority should win any vote on the matter,” a statement issued the independent lawmakers said. The MPs rejected to link setting a date for a parliamentary session based on a unanimous decision taken by the members of the electoral subcommittee. The meeting that was held at the residence of MP Butros Harb revealed that if the foes failed to reach common ground over a new electoral law then the March 14 independent MPs will submit their candidacies based on the 1960 electoral law. The attendees also agreed to exert efforts to achieve best representation, in particular for Christians, which would maintain coexistence. They warned of any “constitutional vacancy,” which will have a negative impact on the country. The parliament's electoral subcommittee has been holding consecutive meetings since Wednesday under the auspices of Speaker Nabih Berri in an attempt to reach consensus over the matter. An amended version of the 1960 law was adopted in the 2009 parliamentary elections, but the majority of the political blocs are refusing to adopt it for this year's polls. The Orthodox Gathering law has meanwhile been rejected by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, the Mustaqbal bloc, MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, and independent Christian March 14 MPs. The Orthodox draft law, which considers Lebanon a single electoral district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional representation system, is strongly backed by Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement.

Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi Slams Officials over Failure to Agree on Vote Law, Considers it 'Shameful'
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi lamented on Saturday the crises in Lebanon that are threatening its stability and security, holding officials accountable for their failure to adopt a new electoral law that best suits the country. “The irresponsible dealing with the crises in Lebanon tarnished its beautiful image,” al-Rahi, who is on a pastoral visit to Latin America, said. He lashed out at politicians, saying: “They are not worth their posts and will disappoint us if they failed to agree in a new electoral law and form a new cabinet.” “It is not allowed after six year of discussions and wasting time not to reach common ground over an electoral law... They don't deserve to return to power,” al-Rahi said. The rival parties have failed so far to reach a consensual electoral law, after the March 14 forces endorsed a hybrid law that did not receive the approval of the Phalange Party and the March 8 camp, who have demanded several amendments. The parliament's electoral subcommittee has been holding consecutive meetings since Wednesday under the auspices of Speaker Nabih Berri in an attempt to reach consensus over the matter. An amended version of the 1960 law was adopted in the 2009 parliamentary elections, but the majority of the political blocs are refusing to adopt it for this year's polls.
The Orthodox Gathering law has meanwhile been rejected by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, the Mustaqbal bloc, MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, and independent Christian March 14 MPs. The Orthodox draft law, which considers Lebanon a single electoral district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional representation system, is strongly backed by Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement. Concerning the crisis in Syria, al-Rahi urged the Lebanese not to interfere in the affairs of any foreign country. “We have always demanded others not to meddle in our local affairs and it's not acceptable for us to interfere in the conflict in Syria,” the patriarch said, calling on the rival parties to abide by the Baabda Declaration. The Baabda Declaration was unanimously adopted during a national dialogue session in June 2012. It calls for Lebanon to disassociate itself from regional crises, most notably the one in Syria. Lebanese parties are sharply divided over the crisis in Syria as the March 8 alliance continuously expresses its support to Syrian president Bashar Assad, while the March 14 camp voices its support for the popular revolt. The international community and analysts have expressed fears that the conflict in Syria may spill over into the Lebanon.

Bkirki: No LF, FPM Meeting Has Been Scheduled due to High Tensions
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi's envoy Bishop Samir Mazloum lamented the eruption of the dispute between the Christian Free Patriotic Movement and Lebanese Forces over the parliamentary electoral law, urging calm to resolve their differences, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper Saturday. He told the daily: “A meeting between the two sides has not been scheduled due to the high tensions between them.”
The dispute erupted between the two parties after the FPM accused the LF of abandoning the Orthodox Gathering parliamentary electoral law, which it had previously agreed to at the joint parliamentary committees along with the FPM, Marada Movement, and Phalange Party. The LF had justified its decision to refrain from endorsing the proposal during a recent parliamentary session, aimed at voting on the draft law, to the inability to implement the suggestion. LF chief Samir Geagea had said that it became clear to the party over time that the draft law would be impossible to implement due to the opposition to it by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Premier Najib Miqati, MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, and independent Christian March 14 lawmakers. The FPM has meanwhile held the LF responsible for parliament's failure to approve the law, with caretaker Energy Minister Jebran Bassil saying Thursday that the LF placed “personal interests above public ones by choosing March 14 camp instead of the country and by choosing Mustaqbal bloc over Christians.”
At the moment of truth, they (the LF and Mustaqbal) announced another law and wasted the chance to offer Christians fair representation, he commented. “We lost Christian unity. We temporarily lost 64 seats, and we lost a real chance to organize the Christian arena and end the dispersion caused by some parasites and feudal lords,” he said. The LF, Mustaqbal, and National Struggle Front announced on Tuesday an agreement over a hybrid proposal that calls for 54 MPs to be elected under the winner-takes-all system and 46 percent via the proportional representation system. The Phalange Party, of the March 14 alliance, did not endorse the law. The Orthodox Gathering law considers Lebanon a single district and stipulates that each sect elects its own MPs under on a proportional representation system, is strongly backed by Hizbullah and the FPM. Mazloum meanwhile told al-Joumhouria that the proposal endorsed by the LF, Mustaqbal, and National Struggle Front grants Christians no more than 50 MPs. He revealed that Bkirki was surprised by the agreement, criticizing the LF for failing to consult it and other Christian parties over its decision. He also criticized the FPM for “overreacting” to the LF's position, saying that the party was subject to “vulgar accusations of treason.”Moreover, Mazloum said that Bkirki itself had agreed months ago to suspend the agreement over the Orthodox Gathering proposal after it realized that it would not be adopted given the opposition to it. This was followed by a period of consultations held between the LF and its allies and the LF and the FPM under the watchful eye of Bkirki, he added. The consultations however came to a halt with the LF's agreement with the Mustaqbal and National Struggle Front over the hybrid law, he said.

Lebanese Forces MP Antoine Zahra: FPM Seeking to Achieve Political Gains, Not Electoral Law
Naharnet /Lebanese Forces MP Antoine Zahra slammed on Friday the Free Patriotic Movement's campaign against the party, saying that it is seeking to reach an agreement over a parliamentary electoral law that enjoys the consensus of all sides. He said during a press conference in response to the FPM campaign: “The Movement is seeking to achieve political gains, not an agreement over an electoral law.” “The LF is keen on Christians and the whole of Lebanon in that it seeks to fortify the entire country” and not just achieve personal interests, he explained. It is therefore working on reaching an agreement over an electoral law that enjoys the consensus of all sides, added the MP. Zahra accused the FPM of misleading the public, saying: “They promise the people with paradise and then hold others responsible for failing to reach it.”He stated that the FPM is attempting to tarnish the image of the LF in order to make political gains for the elections, which will be held according to the 1960 law that has been rejected by all powers. In addition, he lauded Speaker Nabih Berri on behalf of LF leader Samir Geagea for “his keenness to reach an electoral law that enjoys consensus.” On the Orthodox Gathering electoral law, Zahra said the LF no longer supported it because it became clear to it that it can never be implemented. “We will vote for the Orthodox Gathering law as a last resort if we fail to reach an agreement over another one,” he revealed. “We will vote for it even though we know that it cannot be implemented,” he stressed. The Orthodox draft considers Lebanon a single district and stipulates that each sect elects its own MPs under on a proportional representation system,.The proposal was backed by the FPM, Marada Movement, Phalange Party, and LF. It was rejected by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, the Mustaqbal Movement, MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, and the independent Christian March 14 lawmakers. A parliament session that was scheduled for Wednesday to vote on the law was suspended due to a lack of quorum after those opposing the proposal announced that they will boycott the meeting. FPM members have since slammed the move, accusing the LF of squandering the rights of Christians.

Political Blocs to Submit Candidacies According to 1960 Law to Avoid Uncontested Victories
Naharnet/Parliamentary elections candidates from the rival March 8 and 14 camps announced on Saturday that they would be willing to submit their candidacies based on the 1960 electoral law, reported various media outlets.
According to LBCI television, March 14 Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan said: “The LF, Mustaqbal, and independent candidates will submit their candidacies based on the 1960 law to prevent uncontested victories.”Mustaqbal MP Jamal al-Jarrah echoed this position to Future television, saying that he will submit his candidacy on Monday. “This is a technical procedure, not a political maneuver,” he explained. MP Alain Aoun, of the Free Patriotic Movement of the rival March 8 alliance, was quoted as saying: “If an agreement over the parliamentary electoral law is not reached, then we will submit candidacies based on the 1960 law.”The lawmakers made their remarks ahead of an electoral subcommittee meeting at parliament aimed at reaching an agreement over a new vote law. According to An Nahar daily Saturday, caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel explained that given that the political blocs have so far failed in reaching an agreement over a new vote law, the one that was adopted during the previous elections, the 1960 law, would still be active and candidates would be eligible to submit their candidacies based on it. He added that preparations to stage the elections, which are scheduled for June 16, are underway according to the previous law. An amended version of the 1960 law was adopted in the 2009 parliamentary elections, but the majority of the political blocs are refusing to adopt it for this year's polls. The Orthodox Gathering law has meanwhile been rejected by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, the Mustaqbal bloc, MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, and independent Christian March 14 MPs. The Orthodox draft law, which considers Lebanon a single electoral district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional representation system, is strongly backed by Hizbullah and the FPM. The proposal's opponents have said that it deepens sectarian divides in Lebanon. The failure to reach an agreement over a new electoral law is threatening to postpone the elections amid increased reports that the current parliament's term may be extended. In April, National Struggle Front members led by Jumblat submitted to the Interior Ministry their candidacies for the parliamentary elections based on the 1960 law that considers the qada an electoral district and is based on the winner-takes-all system. The delegate of Jumblat's Progressive Socialist Party, who submitted the candidacies, told reporters outside the Interior Ministry at the time that the move was in harmony with the stance of Suleiman on avoiding a vacuum in the absence of a new electoral law.

Assad Stresses He Will Not Step Down, Denies Using Chemical Weapons
Naharnet /Syrian President Bashar Assad said Saturday he welcomed a U.S.-Russian peace initiative to end Syria's civil war but had no plans to resign, in an interview with an Argentine newspaper. "To resign would be to flee," he told the Clarin when asked if he would consider stepping aside as called for by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. "I don't know if Kerry or anyone else has received the power of the Syrian people to talk in their name about who should go and who should stay. That will be determined by the Syrian people in the 2014 presidential elections," Assad said.Assad spoke to Clarin and the Argentine state news agency Telam in a lengthy interview in Damascus in which he also denied that his government has used chemical weapons against the civilian population. His comments come amid a rare joint push by the United States and Russia to convene a peace conference in Geneva that would bring together members of the regime and the rebels fighting to oust Assad. "We have received the Russian-U.S. approach well and we hope that there will be an international conference to help Syrians overcome the crisis," Clarin quoted Assad as saying. He added, however, that "we do not believe that many Western countries really want a solution in Syria. And we don't think that the forces that support the terrorists want a solution to the crisis. "We must be clear," he said. "There is confusion in the world over a political solution and terrorism. They think that a political conference will stop terrorism on the ground. This is unrealistic."
Pressure for action on Syria has mounted with Western intelligence reports that the regime has used chemical weapons on at least two occasions and a death toll nearing 95,000 after 26 months of war, according to a Syrian observer group.Telam quoted Assad as denying that his government has used chemical weapons against its civilian population, saying that mass casualties could not be hidden if the regime had.
"The accusations against Syria regarding the use of chemical weapons or my resignation change every day. And it is likely that this is used as a prelude to a war against our country," he said.
"They said we use chemical weapons against residential areas. If they were used in a city or a suburb with only 10 or 20 victims, would that be credible?"Their use, he said, "would mean the death of thousands or tens of thousands of people in a matter of minutes. Who could hide something like that?"Assad also questioned the estimates of the number of dead produced by human rights groups, but acknowledged that "thousands of Syrians have died.""We shouldn't ignore that many of the dead that they talk about are foreigners who have come to kill the Syrian people," he said, blaming "local terrorism and that coming from abroad" for the violence. Clarin said Assad denied that his government was using "fighters from outside of Syria, of other nationalities, and needs no support from any Arab or foreign state.
"There are Hizbullah people in Iran, in Syria, but they come and go in Syria from long before the crisis," he said.Source/Agence France Presse.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Pope Francis
Naharnet/German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Pope Francis for private talks at the Vatican Saturday which addressed the state of Europe and its role in the world, the Vatican said in a statement.
Merkel flew in especially to meet the new pontiff, an encounter that lasted 45 minutes -- unusually long for a private papal audience. "These discussions covered the long relationship between the Vatican and Germany as well as common concerns including the social, political, economic and religious situation in Europe and the world," the Vatican said. Merkel, the daughter of a Lutheran minister, attended the March 19 inauguration of Benedict XVI's successor but this was her first private meeting with Francis. Their talks, held in the pope's library with the help of an interpreter, also covered human rights and religious freedom, said the Vatican. Merkel gave the pope -- who spent time in Frankfurt as a philosophy and theology student in the 1980s -- three volumes of poetry by the German poet Friedrich Hoelderlin and 107 CDs featuring the composer and conductor Wilhelm Furtwaengler -- both favorites of Francis.The German leader joked she hoped the pontiff "would have the time to listen to them all".
Source/Agence France Presse.

Damascus Car Bomb Kills Three, Wounds Five
Naharnet/A car bomb exploded on Saturday in a northern district of the Syrian capital killing at least three people and wounding five others, state television reported.
The state broadcaster said the bomb was placed in a car in the Rokn Eddin neighborhood and that a bomb disposal team was defusing another device.
"The terrorist explosion was the result of a big bomb concealed in a car ... Three people were killed and five others wounded according to a provisional toll," it said.
Source/Agence France Presse.

Opinion: Saving Syria’s Revolution
By: Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
All eyes are on the Syrian people who are set to choose a leader for the Syrian National Coalition next week. The process began approximately two months ago when members of the opposition disagreed over Ghassan Hitto’s appointment. A prospective choice who was not popular among Syrians, Hitto failed to establish a satisfactory government during the period following his “election”.
The most likely new candidate for this post is Ahmad Tohme. Contrary to Hitto, Tohme is a well-known face among the Syrians, an Islamist, and is based in Syria. Hitto is well known among the opposition since he participated in the “Damascus Declaration,” a statement of unity issued in October 2005, alongside key opposition figures such as Fayez Sara.
For the last eight years, the opposition has been calling for gradual change in Syria. Unlike Hitto—who previously resided in the United States and for this reason, is rejected by some—Tohme was born in Deir ez-Zor, in eastern Syria. In his own words: “I’ve lived in Syria for most of my life except for the give years I spent in the Bisha province of Saudi Arabia where my father worked as a teacher between 1974 and 1979.”
Similar to the previous coalition president, Moaz Al-Khatib, Ahmad Tohme worked as a preacher in a mosque and specialized in Islamic studies. He calls for change and believes in “reconsidering our Muslim intellectual heritage and correcting a number of misunderstanding that resulted from the backwardness of our civilization.” Tohme is also a pacifist who believes in fighting peacefully for rights.
Those who know Tohme say he is a moderate person and represents the essential element for a post-Assad Syria, which requires someone who advocates co-existence between religions, sects and ideologies.
The chosen head of the new government will have to fulfill several idealistic requirements. He will initially have to save the revolution and its leaders who remain tormented by internal chaos.
If Tohme succeeds, he will also have to visits the world’s major cities to convince the international community of the integrity and unity of the opposition, as well as the fact that it represents all the Syrian people. Despite their integral influence, lack of arms and regional interventions in favor of Assad’s regime are not the main issues of concern here.
The real danger facing the success of the Syrian revolution is on behalf of the revolutionaries themselves, their leaders, and their internal division. It is the absence of a unified leadership to convince the Syrian peoples, first and foremost, and then the rest of the world, that an alternative option to the Syrian regime exists, and that it is active, responsible, and popular.
The question is whether Tohme will be able to handle the situation at a time when internal and external forces are conspiring against the Syrian people and their revolution? It has been suggested that he should not accept the position if he cannot handle it; this national duty is dangerous, difficult, and historical.
Meanwhile, the peace conference is a Russian-Iranian initiative that aims to convince the world to accept Bashar Al-Assad as president until next year, and then for life. Those who support the “Geneva 2” conference claim that the opposition has no leaders, the revolutionaries do not have a united body, and that the revolution is no better than the regime it aims to overthrow.
This image is being propagated by the Assad regime through individual manipulations and forged videos. An example of this would be the video allegedly showing revolutionaries eating the heart of a soldier after killing him. The Bolivian ambassador stated that this video prompted him to oppose a U.N. General Assembly resolution against the Assad regime a few days ago.
It is crucial that the opposition forms a government, chooses a leader, and maintains the openness of a coalition that rises above differences and unreasonable allegiances; these duties are as important as the use of weapons and self-sacrifice.

Opinion: The Iraqization of Syria
By : Yousef Al-Dayni/Asharq Alawsat
The disregard shown by the international community towards Syria, particularly by “mastermind” the US, continues to cast its shadow over the developments in the region. Unfortunately, not only is the Obama administration floundering in its attempts to establish a mechanism and limits for intervention, there is also what might be called a “campaign” being launched by some US politicians to fuel fear of repeating the Iraqi scenario in Syria. The campaign is not limited to bashful statements by US foreign policy officials; rather, in the last few weeks many articles have appeared in the US press expressing fears of Syria sinking in the Iraqi swamp. Despite the many ideal “models” provided for post-Saddam Iraq, they were disrupted by the prejudiced performance of the Al-Maliki’s government, rekindling the sectarian ball of flame which has yet to die down. Perhaps, the recent events that took place during Sunni protests in Kirkuk—killing more than 50 people—are a good example of what has been going on over the last 10 years.
The “Iraqization” of Syria is not out of the question, not because of Al-Qaeda—which is an effect rather than a cause—but because of the continuing survival of the Assad regime which, through repression and oppression, managed to deviate the Syrian uprising from its course, turning it into a sectarian and regional conflict. This is the crux of the matter which US politicians have failed to realize. Al-Qaeda and sectarianism, which are foreign to the Syrian revolution, came as a result of the regime’s repressive policies; the peaceful nature of the uprising during its early months are proof of this. Besides this, until now no single Al-Qaeda-linked group can rival the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on the ground. Describing the situation in Syria as a new Afghanistan is not just an exaggeration, it is ironic, particularly given that Al-Qaeda (prior to the 2001 invasion) had the upper hand there. Moreover, Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan had its own independent sources of supply and fighters, unlike the Jabhat Al-Nusra groups in Syria which are comprised of fighters from neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Jordan, as well as militants from Europe and some Arab countries. There are not enough such groups [in Syria] to replicate the Afghan scenario. On returning home, these groups, however, will cause an aftershock, particularly if the crisis in Syria remains unsolved.
Back to Iraq, the increase in the frustratingly sectarian performance of Al-Maliki’s government will produce uncontrollable results. The unjust representation of Sunnis in Iraq’s political process, along with the blockade that the Assad regime, Iran, and Hezbollah have imposed on the Syrian people, create a snowball-effect in Iraq. The lack of Sunni representation—which could have been easily solved by finding a consensual formula for all Iraqi people—has created regional alignments that are damaging to national interests, particularly given that sectarianism is on the rise today.
One question remains unanswered, why Al-Qaeda and its allies are always pushed into the spotlight in the Syrian crisis although their initial participation was because this situation remained unresolved and escalated. Why does the media—even when criticizing Iran and Hezbollah’s direct intervention in Syria— avoid mentioning the Assad-affiliated armed groups? It is no secret that there are several pro-Assad armed groups in Syria, such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, which is one of the most important forces on the ground, not to mention the increasing numbers of Hezbollah’s fighters in Al-Qusayr and the villages surrounding Homs.
Certainly, the Syrian regime has benefited from the militarization of the uprising in Syria, using it as a scarecrow to remain in power and to deviate the uprising from its peaceful course into a state of armed chaos. This is something which has mobilized public opinion against the revolution, particularly in Russia, China and some Latin American countries which see the situation as an armed conflict violating the sovereignty of a civil and secular regime. Despite its naïveté, this myth has been easily established among countries that expressed reservation about direct intervention in the name of democracy; a sin the US has bitterly repented.
However the militarization of the situation in Syria was among the regime’s major goals. The regime is also aiming at destroying the country via stirring up sectarian tensions. This is something which was considered a joke, given how the sectarian rhetoric, adopted by some Syrian preachers, was met with strong disapproval by the rebels. However, the regime’s sectarian game, which ensures the influx of Jabhat Al-Nusra fighters, provides an easy justification for Hezbollah fighters and Tehran on the pretext of ‘rescuing’ the Shi’ite and Christian minorities. This fallacy has even been spread in the West by the Assad-affiliated politicians and journalists who constantly remind the West of the Lebanese civil war.
The Assad’s regime keeps repeating that we have to choose either “sectarianism,” “Al-Qaeda,” “Iranian Influence” or “civil war” in an attempt to ensure its survival, or perhaps to help end the crisis before it turns into a regional conflict, particularly after the recent developments on the borders with Turkey and Iraq. And all of this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Report: Israel prefers Assad survive Syria conflict
By JPOST.COM STAFF05/18/2013/Times of London' quotes Israeli officer as saying Israel prefers "the devil it knows."The scenario that Syrian President Bashar Assad would survive his country's bloody conflict, yet would hold a lesser role, would be preferred by Israel in contrast to a takeover by rebel factions with Islamic extremist inklings, The Times of London cited an Israeli official as saying Friday.
“Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine if Syria falls into chaos and the extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there,” one senior Israeli intelligence officer was quoted as saying. A weakened, but intact Assad regime would be preferable for Syria and the Middle East, the Times reported intelligence sources as saying. The report quoted another defense official who told the Times that Assad's tenacity had been underestimated. “We originally underestimated Assad’s staying power and overestimated the rebels’ fighting power,” the source said. The situation that Assad survives, maintaining power in Damascus and in the corridors to the large coastal cities, would entail the breaking up of Syria into three separate states. The remarks come amid current differing opinions within the defense establishment about what to expect in Syria and what outcome for its northern neighbor would benefit Israel.Another senior defense official claimed recently in closed conversations that Israel has erred in its estimates of how quickly Assad would fall from power in Syria.According to the official, Israel has "underestimated" Assad's strength and the inner life force of the Syrian regime. The defense establishment however, maintains its view stressing that all scenarios are possible in Syria and a change in policy by the West that would lead to military intervention could tip the scales toward one side or the other. Ben Caspit and Lior Novik contributed to this report

Syria's Assad says he won't step down
May 18, 2013/Daily Star
BEIRUT: Syrian President Bashar Assad says he won't step down before elections are held in his war-ravaged country.
The Syrian leader's comments, published Saturday in the Argentine newspaper Clarin, highlight the difficulties the U.S. and Russia face in getting the Assad regime and Syria's political opposition to the table at an international conference envisioned for next month.
The country's main opposition group has demanded that these talks lead to Assad's departure.
However, Assad says such a dialogue shouldn't "decide a matter that has not been decided by the people."
Assad likened himself to a ship captain in turbulent seas, saying: "I am not someone who flees from my responsibilities."
Gunmen on Saturday abducted the elderly father of Syria's deputy foreign minister, the official's office said, in the latest kidnapping targeting family members of figures in President Bashar Assad's regime.
The father of Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad was seized Saturday in the village of Ghossom in the southern province of Daraa, Mekdad's office said. An official in the office said the man is in his 80s, but he did not know his name.
The abduction was also reported by Beirut-based Al-Mayadeen TV, which has several reporters in Syria and is seen as sympathetic to the regime.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but armed opposition groups in Syria have targeted senior regime officials or members of their families in the past for kidnapping or assassination in the past.
Last year, rebels carried out one of the highest-profile attacks against regime officials to date, detonating a bomb inside a high-level crisis meeting that killed four advisers of Assad, including the defense minister and the president's brother-in-law.
The uprising against Assad erupted in March 2011 and escalated into a civil war that has left tens of thousands dead and several million displaced.
Lack of unity among rebel fighters has characterized the armed conflict from the start, and there were new signs Saturday that infighting is on the rise.
Activists on Saturday reported a wave of mutual kidnappings between rival Islamic militant groups in the northern city of Aleppo after clashes killed at least four rebel fighters.
The director of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdul-Rahman, said a coalition of rebel groups known as the Judicial Council had accused another armed opposition faction, the Ghurabaa al-Sham, of plundering factories in Aleppo's industrial neighborhood. Aleppo, Syria's largest city and a former commercial center, is split between rebel and government control.
Any internal fighting between rebels in the city would play into the hands of the regime, which is trying to tarnish the image of the opposition by saying it is dominated by extremists linked to al-Qaida network.
Aleppo, a city of 3 million that was once a bastion of support for President Bashar Assad, has been engulfed in heavy fighting since rebels launched an assault there in July and captured several neighborhoods. Over the past few weeks, regime forces have been pursuing an offensive in the city, mainly focused on pushing the rebels from around the international airport and a nearby military air base.
Abdul-Rahman said tensions among rebel factions have been rising in opposition-held areas, mostly on the eastern side of the city. The two groups, the Judicial Council and the Ghurabaa al-Sham, clashed on Tuesday near Aleppo in fighting that left four members of the Judicial Council dead, Abldul-Rahman said. He added that the Judicial Council is now holding dozens of members of Ghurabaa al-Sham captive.
Aleppo-based activist Mohammed Saeed said Ghurabaa al-Sham withdrew its fighters from several neighborhoods, including the industrial area.
Saeed said Ghurabaa al-Sham released all Judicial Council members it was holding while the other group refused to set free Ghuarbaa al-Sham members and is still holding them.
"The situation is very tense in Aleppo," said Abdul-Rahman, who relies on a network of activists around the country.
He said that Ghurabaa al-Sham has warned it will bring some of its members from outside the city to fight against the Judicial Council if its members are not freed.
The Judicial Council is an umbrella organization that includes the Tawheed Brigade, Ahrar al-Sham and the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra - one of the most effective forces among the mosaic of rebel brigades fighting to topple Assad in Syria's civil war.The Observatory also reported that rebels captured several villages late Friday in the central province of Hama after weeks of fighting with government troops. It said the villages were inhabited by members of Assad's minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.
It said the Alawite villages - Tleisiyeh, Zaghba, Shaata and Balil - are all on the eastern side of the central province. The Observatory said residents fled the area captured by rebels.
The uprising against Assad became an outlet for long-suppressed grievances, mostly by poor Sunnis from marginalized areas.
Earlier this month, activists reported that troops and pro-government Alawite gunmen killed more than 100 people in Sunnis areas in the coastal city of Banias and the nearby town of Bayda. The violence in Banias and Bayda bears a close resemblance to two reported mass killings last year in Houla and Qubeir, Sunni villages surrounded by Alawite towns.
Many of the rebels trying to overthrow Assad today say they want to replace his government with an Islamic state.
The Syrian National Coalition, the main umbrella opposition group, said government forces are currently besieging the towns of Halfaya and Aqrab in Hama and have shut down communications in the area.
"Civilians in those areas are now cut off from contact with the outside world, and lives are in extreme danger," the coalition said.
The Observatory and the Local Coordination Committees, another activist group, reported intense clashes around the town of Qusair near the Lebanon border. Syrian opposition groups say members of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group are taking part in the fighting along with Assad's forces.