Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources

Assad Not Afraid to Use Chemical Weapons/By: Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alsawsat/May 02/13
Syria Enters the Chemical Stage/By: Ali Ibrahim /Asharq Alawsat/May 02/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 02/13

Israeli reserves called up for Syrian, Lebanese borders. Military drill starts Sunday
Stalled Arab Peace Initiative Reaffirmed
Geagea Lashes Out at Nasrallah, Says Syrian Regime Will Fall despite Hizbullah Support
Sleiman opposes March 8 demand for veto power
Nasrallah hints Assad's allies could intervene
ISF taught me unforgettable lesson: Jumblatt
Franjieh, Gemayel Hold Talks in Bikfaya, Stress on Preventing the Spillover of Syria's War
Controversial Islamist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir Returns from Qusayr, Says Had 'the Honor of Firing on the Criminals'
Future urges Hezbollah withdraw fighters from Syria
March 14 Warns Salam of Falling for Hizbullah's Extortion: Party Turned against Disassociation Policy
Lebanon launches first oil & gas license round
March 8 Parties Express Solidarity with Aazaz Abductees, Say Solution Looming as Kidnappers Demand Release of Syrian Women Detainees
Lebanese army catches Israeli who crossed border'
Al-Rahi Stresses from Brazil Need to Form New Government
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati: Elections Cannot Possibly Be Held on Time
Israeli crosses border into Lebanon
Hezbollah sacrificing Lebanon for Assad: Hariri
Union rally in Beirut marks International Labor Day
Syria opposition denounces Hezbollah 'threats
UN diplomats: Syria mediator determined to resign
Poll: Americans do not want US involved in Syria
Syrian Envoy: Chemical Weapons Can't be Tolerated
Syria's Assad makes rare public visit for May Day
Director of Syrian Refugees Office in Tripoli Says Escaped Assassination Attempt
Syria activists say rockets hit central Damascus
Israel will not talk on basis of 1967 lines: minister
Brahimi to quit as Syria peace envoy: diplomats
Zasypkin: West preventing peaceful end to Syria crisis
Olmert: Israel should jump at Arab peace initiative

Sleiman opposes March 8 demand for veto power
May 01, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman voiced in remarks published Wednesday his opposition to March 8 demands for veto power in the new Cabinet to be formed by Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam. Speaking to An-Nahar newspaper, Sleiman "rejected the demands for a blocking third but had reservations over the rotation of ministerial portfolios."
On Wednesday, the Beirut lawmaker briefed Sleiman on his recent consultations with the various political groups with regard to the Cabinet lineup. Tammam left Baabda Palace without making any statements.
The Hezbollah-led alliance has repeatedly asked Salam for veto power in his future government as well as a Cabinet lineup that represents political parties according to their parliamentary clout.
The March 8 group has also rejected the rotation of ministerial portfolios, arguing that such a move is merely aimed at lessening the Free Patriotic Movement’s control of the energy and telecommunications ministries.
Salam has said that he is seeking to form a government of ministers who are not running for the elections and that the veto power should be allocated to himself, Sleiman and MP Walid Jumblatt. In his remarks Wednesday, Sleiman also warned that not holding the June elections would pose a danger to the economy and the Lebanese currency as investors would lose trust in the country's institutions.
“Every intention to refrain from holding the polls will cost the country,” he said. The president reiterated that he would challenge any decree to extend Parliament’s term, saying MPs should go to the polls “with any new electoral law they invent, agree on or even the 1960 law.” The lack of agreement on a new electoral for the June 19 polls has raised the possibility of Parliament extending its own term for a specific period to allow more time for the political parties to formulate a new draft law.

Al-Rahi Stresses from Brazil Need to Form New Government
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi criticized the delay in the formation of a new government, reported the National News Agency Wednesday. He stressed the need to form a new cabinet because the “delay cannot persist longer than this.” He made his remarks upon his arrival in Sao Paolo, Brazil as part of his ongoing tour of South America. Al-Rahi also emphasized the need for political powers to reach an agreement over a new parliamentary electoral law, “which should offer fair representation to all Lebanese.” To that end, he also highlighted the importance of holding the elections as scheduled on June 16. Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam is seeking the formation of a cabinet of national interests that will be able to hold the elections. The March 8 camp is seeking the formation of a political cabinet, while the rival March 14 alliance is demanding the establishment of a neutral one. Political parties have so far failed to reach an agreement on a new electoral law, which is threatening the postponement of the polls.

Geagea Lashes Out at Nasrallah, Says Syrian Regime Will Fall despite Hizbullah Support
Naharnet /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea slammed on Wednesday Hizbullah's chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, saying that the Syrian regime doesn't need the party's intervention in battles on its territories. “The Syrian regime will collapse and you will not be able to stop history from writing itself,” Geagea said during a televised speech. He wondered that if the regime was strong then it would protect al-Qusayr and the Sayyeda Zainab shrine. “Your claims that you are defending the Lebanese in the Syrian border town of al-Qusayr and the shrine of Sayyeda Zainab are merely to justify your military intervention in the neighboring country,” Geagea said.
On Tuesday evening, Nasrallah acknowledged that members of his group are fighting inside Syria to help the Lebanese in Syria’s border town of al-Qusayr, assuring that the party prides itself in its martyrs. He announced that Hizbullah fighters are defending holy places in the area: “Armed groups are only hundreds of meters away from the Sayyeda Zainab shrine and Takfirist groups launched clear threats on the Internet that they will destroy the shrine should they enter the area." Concerning the formation of the cabinet, Geagea said that Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam has so far failed to form it as some parties consider that they “own certain portfolios.”
Salam has announced that he wants to form a 24-member government with rotational portfolios. He has also rejected having electoral candidates in the executive authority whose only mission would be the supervision of the parliamentary elections. Geagea also pointed out that some sides are obstructing all the efforts to reach an electoral law. The political powers have so far failed to reach an agreement on an alternative law, threatening to postpone the parliamentary elections that are scheduled for June 16.

Nasrallah hints Assad’s allies could intervene

May 01, 2013/By Wassim Mroueh, Thomas El-Basha/he Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah hinted Tuesday that Syria’s allies Iran, Russia and “resistance groups” could intervene militarily to prevent the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Nasrallah also said his fighters would continue to defend Lebanese in Syrian border villages from rebel attacks, arguing that the Lebanese state was unable to fulfill the task itself. “Syria has real friends in the region and the world that will not let Syria fall at the hands of America, Israel or takfiri groups. They will not let this happen,” Nasrallah, Assad’s closest ally in Lebanon, said in a televised speech.
“How will this happen? Details will come later. I say this based on information ... rather than wishful thinking.” Nasrallah said judging by facts on the ground, Syrian rebels lacked the military capabilities to topple Assad, who is supported by Iran and Russia. “We tell you that you [rebels] are unable to topple the regime through military means. After two years and based on facts in the field ... you have no ability to do so,” the Hezbollah chief said.
“This is the case when you are now only fighting the Syrian army and the popular forces loyal to the [government],” he added. “Up to this moment there are no Iranian forces in Syria.”
Nasrallah, who commands Lebanon’s largest military force, asked: “What if dangerous developments occur, forcing states or resistance groups to step in the field in Syria?” But the Hezbollah leader reiterated that only a political solution would resolve the conflict in the war-ravaged country. On the subject of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, Nasrallah said the Lebanese state could not fulfill its duty of defending Lebanese in Syrian border towns. The party has argued that its members have been helping Lebanese residents in a string of Syrian villages in rural Qusair to defend themselves against attacks by Syrian rebels. However, Hezbollah’s rivals in Lebanon maintain that the party is assisting Assad in his crackdown. Nasrallah pledged that his party would protect the residents of these rural villages. “What can the [Lebanese] state do? Let us be objective ... can it send the Army to Syrian border towns that are inhabited by Lebanese? ... The Lebanese state, given its nature and structure, cannot do so,” he said.
Nasrallah said Lebanese residents of Syrian villages have the right to defend themselves, adding that assisting them did not require authorization from any side.
“This is a moral and humane issue. We are not talking about Lebanese from a specific sect but about all Lebanese living in rural villages of Qusair,” he said.
“We clearly will not let the Lebanese in Qusair be subjected to attacks from armed groups and we will not hesitate to offer this help to whoever wants to stay in his village,” Nasrallah added.
In response to Hezbollah’s involvement in Qusair, two Salafi sheikhs in Lebanon issued calls for jihad to defend residents of the area against attacks they claimed Hezbollah was carrying out.
Nasrallah said these calls publicized what had been happening since the uprising in Syria began.
“In Lebanon over the past two years all those who could issue fatwas, stir incitement, send fighters and arms [to Syria], not only through Lebanese borders but also through [those in] Turkey, Jordan and Iraq, all that they could have done to Syria from Lebanon, they have done,” he said.
Nasrallah blasted what he said was exaggeration by some Arab and Lebanese media outlets of the number of Hezbollah fighters that had been killed in Qusair, but provided no exact figures.
“This is not the first time we face psychological warfare ... we have been living in the heart of psychological warfare for 30 years,” Nasrallah said.
He also said his group had definite information that a massive rebel force was mounting an operation to take over these villages and accused some Lebanese of being involved in the affair.
Regarding the ongoing case of the Lebanese pilgrims kidnapped in Syria, he said no one in Lebanon knew yet what the captors wanted in return for their release.
“Do they want ransom, money, or to release them in exchange for prisoners in Syria? If you want money, say it,” Nasrallah said.
“Where do you want things to go? Demonstrations and sit-ins here and there can not solve the problem. The state’s negotiations with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey and other states have led nowhere so far,” he said.
“Do you imagine that we can stand by idly seeing women and children moving from one street to another and allow this tragedy to continue?” Nasrallah asked, referring to almost daily protests in Lebanon by the relatives of the kidnapped. He said that up to this moment, Israel had not provided proof for its claim last week that it had shot down an unmanned drone coming from Lebanon. Hezbollah denied responsibility shortly after the news emerged. “I tell the Lebanese there is nothing so far confirming that the incident happened,” he said.
Nasrallah ruled out the possibility that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard sent the drone. “This is unrealistic, impossible and not true,” he said.
The Hezbollah leader enumerated a number of possibilities on who might have sent the drone, including friendly Lebanese or Palestinian groups in Lebanon.
“The third possibility is that a non-friendly side, other than Israel ... has sent this drone from Lebanon or elsewhere ... in order ... to drag ... Israel and Hezbollah into a confrontation,” he said.
The fourth possibility, Nasrallah continued, was that Israel sent this drone to Lebanon and back to Israel before shooting it down in order to achieve psychological, political and deterrent goals.

Franjieh, Gemayel Hold Talks in Bikfaya, Stress on Preventing the Spillover of Syria's War
Naharnet /.Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh met on Wednesday with Phalange Party MP Sami Gemayel over lunch in the latter's residence in the Metn's Bikfaya town and both men stressed on the need to neutralize Lebanon from the Syrian crisis. "The talks stressed on the necessity to neutralize Lebanon from Syria's war, regardless of the Lebanese factions' stances towards the neighboring country's conflict,” a statement released by Gemayel's office revealed. "Both men also discussed the importance of keeping communication going on the electoral law, as the parliamentary elections are key to avoid a constitutional vacuum in the country.” “Our stance towards the Syrian conflict differ from Franjieh's, but we both agree that this cannot be negatively reflected on the Lebanese situation," Gemayel stated after the meeting.
"Lebanese people do not need more problems and crises,” he expressed. “We stress on the need to send the army to control the Lebanese-Syrian border,” he pointed out. “If this was not realized, the repercussions of the Syrian conflict will spill over to Lebanon.”Gemayel assured: “This is our main concern. We must realize the importance of avoiding dragging Lebanon into more problems and crises.” Tackling Lebanese matters, Gemayel said: "No one can eliminate the others in Lebanon. The elimination period is over. It is about time we find common grounds through communication and mutual respect to rescue Lebanon in this critical period.” Meanwhile, Franjieh expressed after the meeting that the visit is “to a friend whom we have been introduced to and loved several years ago despite our political differences.”

"The openness of the Lebanese and their readiness to hold talks is what neutralizes Lebanon at this stage.”
The northern leader said no consensus between political factions has been reached over the electoral law: “Each party wants a law that suits its interests and so far no accord was reached over a suggestion that satisfies everyone.” "We cannot have two laws within one law,” he said commenting on the hybrid proposal. A hybrid law combines both proportional representation and winner-takes-all systems.
Speaker Nabih Berri had granted political blocs until May 15 to reach an agreement over a new electoral law before calling parliament to session to vote on the Orthodox Gathering proposal that was approved by the joint parliamentary committees. The Orthodox draft, which divides Lebanon into a single district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional representation system, is rejected by President Michel Suleiman, caretaker Premier Najib Miqati, Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat's National Struggle Front, the Mustaqbal Movement, and independent March 14 MPs have rejected the law.
They say the proposal deepens sectarian divisions in Lebanon. The political powers have so far failed to reach an agreement on an alternative law, threatening to postpone the parliamentary elections that are scheduled for June 16. Tackling the cabinet's formation, Franjieh said he does not mind taking part in the opposition instead of participating in the council of ministers.
“If we did not get the share we want in the cabinet, we do not mind forming the opposition.” “What the March 8 alliance is demanding is its right if we take into consideration the number of MPs we have at the parliament,” he remarked. "If 8 seats were to be allocated to each of March 14, March 8 and independent figures, these must be truly independent. But the names suggested for these seats are not independent.”
The meeting was attended by Marada's ex-Minister Youssef Saade, and Serge Dagher and George Jreij, members of the Phalange's political bureau, the released statement noted.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati: Elections Cannot Possibly Be Held on Time
Naharnet /Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati stressed the importance of the parliamentary elections for Lebanon as a “symbol of democracy in the region,” reported the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat Wednesday.
He told the daily: “Despite their importance, it would be impossible to hold them as scheduled on June 16 … but I do not think the delay will be too long.”He explained that technical difficulties will undoubtedly delay the polls, as well as the failure to reach an agreement over a new electoral law. “It would be impossible to hold them in less than two months,” he remarked. Miqati noted that when he was premier in 2005, he was capable of staging the parliamentary elections with a two-month technical delay. On discussions on a new electoral law, he told the daily: “Perhaps all sides want the elections to be held, but lawmakers are proposing laws that only suit their interests.”Commenting on the government's policy of disassociation from regional developments, Miqati said: “Maintaining Lebanon's stability was our main purpose during this difficult time and some violations were recorded.”“The policy was respected when I was prime minister, except for a few minor violations, and no one had the boldness to announce their involvement in Syria as they are doing now,” he stressed. Hizbullah chief Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah stated on Tuesday that the party had been taking part in the fighting Syria, saying that members were defending Lebanese border regions from attacks from Syria. He also said that fighters are defending holy places in the country, explaining: “Armed groups are only hundreds of meters away from the Sayyeda Zainab shrine and Takfirist groups launched clear threats on the Internet that they will destroy the shrine should they enter the area." “We pride ourselves in our martyrs, especially in those who fell in recent days, and we are holding public funerals‬,” Nasrallah declared. Commenting on his trip to France where held talks with a number of French officials, including Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, Miqati said that the talks focused mainly on the situation in Syria. An informed French source said that the caretaker premier had stressed to the officials the need to support the Lebanese army during the critical phase the region is passing through. Fabius reiterated on Monday his country's support for Lebanon's policy of disassociation towards Syria's conflict, vowing to provide aid in hosting the Syrian refugees.
 

Syria Opposition Denounces Hizbullah 'Threats'
Naharnet /Syria's opposition on Wednesday denounced what it called "threats" from Hizbullah Chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and warned the party against any intervention by it or by Iran in the Syrian conflict.
"The Syrians and the Lebanese hoped... that the Hizbullah leadership would stop their attacks on Homs and Damascus and take into account the gravity of the situation in the region," the Syrian National Coalition said in a statement. "But they heard nothing but threats... and warnings against setting the region on fire and an admission of their interference in Syrian affairs," the key opposition grouping said.
On Tuesday evening, Nasrallah acknowledged that members of his group are fighting inside Syria and suggested Iran and other states could intervene to support the Syrian regime against rebel fighters. President Bashar Assad has "true friends in the region who will not allow Syria to fall into the hands of the United States, Israel and 'takfiri' groups," he said. "If the situation gets more dangerous, states, resistance movements and other forces will be obliged to intervene effectively in the confrontation on the ground," he added. "You will not be able to bring down the regime militarily," Nasrallah told Syria's rebel forces. "The battle is still long." The Syrian opposition has long accused Hizbullah of dispatching fighters to battle alongside government forces, and the Coalition called on the Lebanese government "to immediately put an end to Hizbullah military operations in the regions close to the Syrian border."Source/Agence France Presse.

March 14 Warns Salam of Falling for Hizbullah's Extortion: Party Turned against Disassociation Policy
Naharnet /The March 14 General Secretariat accused Hizbullah of turning against the Taef accord and the policy of “mutual coexistence” in Lebanon. It said in a statement after its weekly meeting: “The party has completely turned against the Baabda Declaration.”It made its remarks in light of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Tuesday during which he stated that the party had been taking part in the fighting Syria, saying that members were defending Lebanese border regions from attacks from Syria. He also said that fighters are defending holy places in the country, explaining: “Armed groups are only hundreds of meters away from the Sayyeda Zainab shrine and Takfirist groups launched clear threats on the Internet that they will destroy the shrine should they enter the area."
The March 14 General Secretariat also accused the party of failing to commit to Arab and international resolutions, calling on the Lebanese people to act against having the Syrian crisis being brought to Lebanon.
Commenting on Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam efforts to form a new government, it said: “He is beginning to lose the momentum he gained after his appointment due to Hizbullah and its allies' attempts to impose their demands through suspicious means.” “We hope that Salam would reject the other camp's conditions and avoid falling victim to Hizbullah's constant blackmail,” it stated. Salam is seeking the formation of a cabinet of national interests that will be able to hold the elections.  The March 8 camp is seeking the formation of a political cabinet, while the rival March 14 alliance is demanding the establishment of a neutral one.

March 8 Parties Express Solidarity with Aazaz Abductees, Say Solution Looming as Kidnappers Demand Release of Syrian Women Detainees
Naharnet/..The relatives of the nine Lebanese Shiite pilgrims abducted in Syria's Aazaz on Wednesday staged a sit-in at Beirut's Martyrs Square, amid a noteworthy participation by March 8 politicians and reports of an imminent swap deal. Later on Wednesday, the kidnappers of the pilgrims, the so-called Northern Storm Brigade, issued a statement on its official Facebook page declaring that “after interrogating the Lebanese who are in our custody, it turned out that they are members of Iran's party in Lebanon and not pilgrims like the party is claiming because there are no holy shrines in Aazaz.”
“We would have preferred to begin negotiations over our detainees in Assad's prisons months ago, but the interference of Iran's party impeded the negotiations, and now is the right time to announced our legitimate demand, which is the release of the innocent women held in the prisons of the Assad regime,” the statement added.
The Brigade confirmed media reports circulated in Beirut that “an international mediation committee has been formed, comprising Turkey, Qatar and Lebanon's Muslim Scholars Committee” and that “the names of the women have been submitted to this committee.”
“We, the revolutionaries of Syria, don't have a problem with any sect or religion. Our problem is with Iran's party in Lebanon which is taking part alongside the Assad regime in killing our children and raping our women,” the Brigade added. For his paer, caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel told MTV: “The conditions for the release of the Aazaz abductees will be announced soon and the agreement contains stages that involve the release of a number of detainees from the Roumieh prison.”MTV said among the conditions for the release of the abductees is the release of “women and men held in Syrian prisons.”Charbel told al-Jadeed television that the kidnappers will broadcast a video Wednesday night that contains three conditions for the release of the Lebanese hostages.
According to information obtained by OTV, accusing the pilgrims of being Hizbullah members "will not impede the positive course their case has taken."
"We come today in the name of the gathering of national parties and forces and after the remarks of the secretary-general (of Hizbullah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah) yesterday it is unacceptable anymore to stand idly by," said deputy head of Hizbullah's politburo Mahmoud Qmati at the Martyrs Square sit-in.
"We will witness positive results in the coming days and there are promising indications but publicizing them does not serve the cause," Qmati added. On Tuesday, Nasrallah revealed that he had told Lebanese officials about his willingess to visit Damascus to discuss the issue with the Syrian regime if the abductors had specific demands.
Meanwhile, the Beirut-based, pan-Arab television al-Mayadeen reported that "the abductors of the Lebanese in Aazaz have demanded the release of 282 women detainees from Syrian prisons in return for the release of the Lebanese." It noted that the kidnappers have submitted a list of the names of women detainees to "a high-ranking diplomatic figure and a Turkish official handed the list to a Lebanese official who has arrived in Beirut a while ago."Later on Wednesday, OTV identified the Lebanese official as Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, the chief of General Security, adding that "the indications are increasingly positive."
Ibrahim told OTV that “a new mechanism has been reached in the negotiations over the release of the abductees.”
Al-Jadeed television said Ibrahim will receive a list containing the demands of the abductors in the next few hours.
Speaking at the sit-in, Daniel Shoaib, the brother of the hostage Ali Shoaib, said "the snowball has started to grow and we will continue our pressure on Turkish interests and politicians are also required to practice pressures," urging all the Lebanese to "boycott Turkish goods."
Sheikh Abbas Zgheib, who was tasked by the Higher Islamic Shiite Council to follow up on the case, announced that "no party can resolve the issue other than the Turkish state," calling on Lebanese politicians to "pressure Turkey." He also thanked politicians for their presence at the sit-in alongside the relatives of the abductees, but noted that the step is a bit late. "It's better late than never," Zgheib went on to say.
The relatives of the abductees have stepped up their protests in recent days, blaming the Turkish government for the failure to release the pilgrims who are being held hostage by Syrian rebels near the Turkish border. Ankara is a staunch supporter of the rebel Free Syrian Army that is fighting regime troops. Eleven pilgrims were kidnapped in May 2012 in northern Syria's Aleppo province as they returned by land from a pilgrimage in Iran. Two of them were released in August and September. They were later taken to the Aleppo town of Aazaz.
The kidnapping was claimed by a man who identified himself as Abu Ibrahim and says he is a member of the rebel Free Syrian Army, but the opposition group denies any involvement in the abductions.

Controversial Islamist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir Returns from Qusayr, Says Had 'the Honor of Firing on the Criminals'
Naharnet /Controversial Islamist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir on Wednesday returned to Lebanon after crossing into the war-torn Syrian area of Qusayr to “support the real heroes” of the armed Syrian opposition.
“My visit to Qusayr's countryside was in support of the true heroes and to coordinate with them and examine the situation,” Asir said on the social networking website Twitter.
“But I refused to return before gaining the honor of firing on the criminals,” he added.
On Monday, Asir called on “everyone who has said that the rebels in Qusayr don't need more fighters to go visit them and confirm that with them directly … and let everyone stop the overbidding in this regard.”
“My visit to Qusayr's countryside increased my certainty and insistence on the religious stance I have voiced in support of our people in Syria in general and in Qusayr in particular,” Asir said on Wednesday. Syria's main rebel Free Syrian Army has rejected calls for jihad (holy war) by Lebanese Islamist clerics, saying "what we are missing in Syria is weapons, not men."
Asir's official Facebook page published pictures and a video showing the Islamist cleric carrying a machinegun alongside the rebels and opening fire from the rooftop of a building.
On Tuesday, Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah declared that his party "will not hesitate" to help the Lebanese residents of Qusayr in their confrontation with Syrian rebels. "30,000 Lebanese Muslims and Christians were targeted, torched and prevented from going to work" at the hands of Syrian rebels in Qusayr, Nasrallah said.
The opposition-affiliated Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has said elite fighters from Hizbullah are leading the fight against rebels in Qusayr. Syrian regime forces have recently recaptured a string of strategic villages in the region, which is along the border with Lebanon.
That raised fears among rebels that the town of Qusayr itself, a stronghold of the uprising, could fall into government hands.
The area is of key strategic importance because it runs along the border with Lebanon and is near the route running from Damascus to the coast. Hizbullah says that its members who are fighting in Homs province are Shiite residents of Syrian border towns engaged in self-defense against rebel forces.
Fighting in the area has spilled over into Lebanon, with rebels targeting border towns inside Lebanon in response to Hizbullah involvement in the conflict


Syria opposition denounces Hezbollah 'threats
Daily Star/BEIRUT: Syria's opposition on Wednesday denounced what it called "threats" from the head of the Lebanon's Hezbollah, and warned against any intervention by the movement or by Iran in the Syrian conflict.
"The Syrians and the Lebanese hoped... that the Hezbollah leadership would stop their attacks on Homs and Damascus and take into account the gravity of the situation in the region," the Syrian National Coalition said in a statement. "But they heard nothing but threats... and warnings against setting the region on fire and an admission of their interference in Syrian affairs," the key opposition grouping said.
On Tuesday evening, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged that members of his group are fighting inside Syria and suggested Iran and other states could intervene to support the Syrian regime against rebel fighters.
President Bashar Assad has "true friends in the region who will not allow Syria to fall into the hands of the United States, Israel and 'takfiri' groups," he said. "If the situation gets more dangerous, states, resistance movements and other forces will be obliged to intervene effectively in the confrontation on the ground," he added. "You will not be able to bring down the regime militarily," Nasrallah told Syria's rebel forces. "The battle is still long." The Syrian opposition has long accused Hezbollah of dispatching fighters to battle alongside government forces, and the Coalition called on the Lebanese government "to immediately put an end to Hezbollah military operations in the regions close to the Syrian border."

Israeli crosses border into Lebanon
May 01, 2013/The Daily Star /SIDON, Lebanon: The Lebanese Army apprehended Wednesday an Israeli man who crossed into Lebanon through the southern border, security sources told The Daily Star.
The man, 34, jumped over the border fence along the internationally recognized Israeli-Lebanese border south of Naqoura where the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon is stationed, they added.
The Lebanese Army is currently interrogating the man, who only speaks Hebrew.

Hezbollah sacrificing Lebanon for Assad: Hariri
May 01, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah is jeopardizing Lebanon, forging a “suicidal” link between it and the crisis in Syria for the sake of President Bashar Assad, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Wednesday, a day after Hezbollah hinted Assad’s allies would intervene to prevent his ouster. “Nasrallah tells us that the Lebanese state is worthless and an eternal hostage in Hezbollah’s hands and that Lebanese, starting from the president, the prime minister to the speaker of Parliament should act accordingly,” Hariri said, according to a statement from his office.
“The state, along with Lebanese groups, is hostage to Hezbollah and that is all for [the sake of] Bashar Assad and at the request of the fatwa he brought back with him from Tehran,” he added.
Hariri was responding to Nasrallah’s remarks Tuesday when the secretary general said the regime’s allies would not allow “Syria to fall in the hands of the U.S., Israel or Takfiri groups.”
Although Nasrallah said the opposition and its supporters could not defeat Damascus militarily, the Hezbollah leader said some states and resistance groups would be obligated to join the fight if the situation in Lebanon’s neighbor deteriorated. "Who [the opposition] is fighting now is merely the Syrian Army and pro-regime popular forces and everything else about [foreign] forces and intervention is inaccurate or very much exaggerated,” Nasrallah said. “If this is the case now, what would happen if things deteriorate in the future to even more dangerous level which could force countries, forces or resistance movements to actually intervene on the ground in Syria," Nasrallah, who heads Lebanon’s largest military group, added.
The Hezbollah chief, who was on a recent visit to Tehran where he met with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also said that his party would continue to assist Lebanese living in Syrian border villages in al-Qusair in their fight against rebel groups. Nasrallah argued that the Lebanese state and its Army were incapable of carrying out this duty. Hariri, one of Nasrallah’s staunchest critics and rivals, said the leader of the resistance group was “single-handedly playing with Lebanon's destiny.”
“He is alone at the helm of Hezbollah and is deciding on behalf of the Lebanese. He alone issues orders to drag Lebanon into regional and civil wars. He alone is allowed to issue fatwas to fight Syrians on their soil,” Hariri said.
“He gave himself the right to expand Hezbollah’s operations from south [Lebanon] to include al-Qusair and Sayedat Zaynab's Shrine in Syria and will not hesitate to transform Lebanon at any moment into a war front alongside the Iranian regime under the pretext of protecting religious sites,” he said.
“Hezbollah, under the leadership of Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, is driving Lebanon into destruction and wants the Shiite sect to take the lead in this destruction as well as [incite] strife that we urge Lebanese to be aware of,” Hariri, who heads Lebanon’s Future Movement, said. The former prime minister also said that Nasrallah was creating what he described was a “suicidal” link between the crisis in Syria and Lebanon.
“Nasrallah chose to stand with the oppressor and announced his commitment to defend till the death Bashar Assad's regime and to carry out orders of Iranian operations and the fatwa from the Faqih [Khamenei],” he said.
“The bet is on the real majority of the Lebanese, and the honorable free brothers in the Shiite Muslim community, who will not accept to sacrifice their homeland and their national unity, and will not follow the will of Hezbollah and the Iranian leadership to sacrifice the state of Lebanon on the altar of Bashar al-Assad,” Hariri said.
In another response to Nasrallah's speech, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea reiterated that the fall of Assad was inevitable. Quoting a famous line by Tunisian poet Abu al-Qasim al-Shabi, he said: “If, one day, a people desire to live, then fate will answer their call.”"Regardless of how much you offer support to the current Syrian regime, you cannot stop the course of history and it will fall at the end of the day, just like others before him did," Geagea said. Geagea also questioned "Hezbollah's justification" for fighting in al-Qusair. "If the regime was strong as you say and it will not fall, then why are you protecting al-Qusair and the Sayedat Zaynab Shrine?" he asked. "But if the regime is weak and will fall, as we expect it will, then your presence there is of no use."

Assad Not Afraid to Use Chemical Weapons
By: Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alsawsat
Last summer, US President Barack Obama warned that if it is confirmed that Syria is transferring or using chemical weapons, he would change his position regarding military intervention in Syria. A few months later, the US secretary of state announced that the Syrian regime did in fact transfer chemical weapons for military use. However, White House experts decided that the chemical weapons were transported to Hezbollah, and so no action was taken.  For almost a year now, there have been leaked reports that confirm Assad’s use of chemical weapons. It was first claimed that he had used chlorine gas. The response was that this is a gas that has been around since World War I and only causes asphyxiation. Nerve agents, on the other hand, are completely different. It was later claimed, however, that Assad’s forced had used the fatal mustard gas. Despite this, no one did anything.
During this month’s conference of security research institutes, an Israeli official announced that the Syrian regime used sarin, also a nerve agent. Neither the Americans, nor anybody else, sent warplanes to Syria.
An Israeli commentator at the Haaretz daily newspaper warned that Gulf countries are observing how the international community is dealing with Assad, and it is clear that the Syrian president was testing how far he could “push the envelope.” In the process, it was realized that no one wants to end the slaughter. Thus, the situation is similar to that of a factory carrying out different experiments—not experiments related to weapons of mass destruction, but experiments on the international community’s reaction. The result is that everyone is aware of what Assad is doing and no one intends to do anything. Initially, Assad realized that no one in the world is concerned about him suffocating civilians with primitive chlorine gas. So, he moved on to the use of mustard gas. After it seemed that no one was concerned about that either, he graduated to sarin gas. It is important to mention that a one-milligram drop of sarin can kill an adult and one fourth of a milligram is enough to kill a child. Assad possesses tons of sarin. Why is there such horrific indifference? Is it because Syria is a petroleum-producing country? Maybe it is because Assad’s fight is with Al-Qaeda? How can the world claim that fighting terrorism and criminal regimes is an international duty?
How can the US State Department justify its statements condemning violations of human rights in the region while overlooking the deaths of innocents as a result of chemical weapons? The question that everyone must now consider is: How can we prevent regional governments from purchasing chemical weapons—the cheapest, most effective instrument of violence?
When Saddam was expelled from Kuwait as a result of collective international military efforts, this was a message to everyone, not just Saddam. The message was that thuggery and threatening other countries comes at a high price. When Afghanistan was shelled and Bin Laden and his Taliban allies fled, it was considered a message to terrorist figures across the world that terrorists will be pursued no matter where they seek refuge. It is apparent that everyone learned the lesson. We have had no major wars or invasions since then. Most terrorist groups went into hiding and no government has dared negotiate with such groups publicly. Assad’s regime has committed horrific massacres against the Syrian people for two years, using weapons that no one ever imagined could be used to target civilians: warplanes, tanks, missiles and chemical weapons. This sends a powerful message: stock up on all types of weapons and one day you will be able to use them. It is for this reason that few would be surprised if Assad decides to save time and end the uprising by deploying chemical weapons on a mass scale. Assad now knows that no foreign military force will head to Syria to deter him.

Israeli reserves called up for Syrian, Lebanese borders. Military drill starts Sunday
DEBKAfile Special Report April 30, 2013/The call-up of thousands of Israeli military reservists for the Syrian and Lebanese borders starting Tuesday, April 30, will continue until the end of the week, ready for the launch of a military exercise on those borders next Sunday, May 5. This is reported by debkafile. These steps are expected to sent military tensions shooting up between Israel, Iran, Syria and Hizballah in Beirut.
The phased mobilization of IDF reserves is planned to keep pace with President Barack Obama’s momentum on US military action against Syrian chemical weapons. He was clear in the comments he made Tuesday that he needs more information – and therefore more time – to find out who and when used chemical weapons in Syria before rethinking “the range of options for action he has on the shelf.”
debkafile’s military sources positively refute claims that Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon was kept in the dark about the IDF mobilization and exercise next week. A senior officer rejected as unimaginable the thought that military steps of this magnitude and importance could be taken without the minister’s knowledge.
In a broadcast speech Tuesday night, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah said that Israeli military moves are worrying, but should be seen in the context of the Syrian war. He sent a warning to Syrian rebels: “You can’t overturn the Damascus regime by military means. You face a long haul. Syria has true friends in the world, who won’t let Syria fall into the hands of Israel, America or al Qaeda.”He was referring to Iran and Russia. At the same time, he distanced his Hizballah from Israel's moves. All three parties – Israel, the US and Hizballah - appear to be playing for time before making definite military commitments in the next stage of the Syrian conflict.
Earlier Tuesday, debkafile reported: 
Israel’s armed forces launched a snap division-scale drill along the full length of the Syrian and Lebanese borders Tuesday, April 30, with call-up orders for thousands of reservists, debkafile’s military sources report.
It was taken into account that the unannounced exercise would send military tensions shooting up on the volatile Israeli, Jordanian, Syrian and Lebanese borders. Moscow, Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah headquarters would assume that Israel is massing troops in advance of US military intervention in Syria.
Its timing is also connected to the speech Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to deliver Tuesday night in case he announces military steps against Israel.
Our Washington sources report that President Barack Obama is poised for a momentous decision on whether to pursue military action against Syrian military targets, including Bashar Assad’s chemical weapons facilities.
These appear to be his three primary options:
1. An American aerial bombardment of the Syrian military bases and facilities which are the mainstay which keep Bashar Assad in power;
2. A missile strike on his chemical weapons from the sea and from ground bases in Europe and the Middle East;
3. The deployment of 20,000 American troops to the Jordanian-Syrian frontier.
Alternatively, Obama may choose to combine elements of all three options and activate them simultaneously.
The surprise Israeli military exercise and concentration of reserve units along the borders of Syria and Lebanon place the IDF including its air and naval branches on the ready for a role in a potential American military operation against Syria. The Israeli military also stands prepared to repel possible reprisals by Iran, Syria or Hizballah against US, Jordanian or Israeli troops.

Syria Enters the Chemical Stage
By: Ali Ibrahim /Asharq Alawsat
It is understandable that many are drawing comparisons between the announcement that chemical weapons have been used in Syria and the claims of the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq during Saddam’s era. The objective of such comparisons is to link the course that eventually led to foreign intervention in Iraq and the subsequent collapse of the regime there with expectations of a similar scenario playing out in Syria.
There can be no doubt that the issue surrounding the use of chemical weapons has pushed the Syrian crisis into a new stage, which is completely different from all preceding ones. This is because a number of international forces, most prominently the US, had previously announced that they considered the use of chemical weapons a “red line” and warned Bashar Al-Assad’s regime that there would be consequences for transgressing it.
Nobody knows what these consequences will be or how the international community reaction will react if it is confirmed that the regime used nerve gas in its war against the opposition forces. However, all signs indicate that there will be no major changes in the positions of the major international forces, particularly the US, in terms of their cautious approach towards the Syrian crisis. Furthermore, the continuing specter of bloody conflict in Iraq, which has had heavy costs on the US, must also have an impact on the decision-makers in Washington.
Nearly ten years have passed since the Iraq war, which saw a number of different occurrences—perhaps most prominently the US withdrawal, which saw domestic considerations prevail over regional ones. Since that time, the international arena has changed considerably, as have US foreign policy priorities, particularly in light of the Arab Spring. The consequences of this wave of Arab uprisings continue to confuse different international powers and their foreign policies towards the region.
However, if a comparison is to be drawn between the Iraqi and Syrian situations, it must focus on the period following Saddam’s ouster, when there was no strategy for the day after the regime’s collapse. As a result, chaos prevailed on the scene and the government’s institutions collapsed. This cost Iraq dearly.
As for the situation in Syria, it seems that there is no clear vision or plan to address the increasingly complicated crisis in the country; this is a crisis that the regime has successfully given a sectarian dimension. It was made clear in the numerous different turns that the Syrian crisis has taken, namely from peaceful protests to armed uprising after the government used violence to confront unarmed demonstrators. In light of all this, the scene today is closer to a civil war, making it extremely difficult for any external party to intervene to help one side against the other.
The problem is that the longer the crisis goes on, the more complicated the situation becomes; every day brings increased threats of extremism and the chance that one party will resort to using non-conventional arms, including chemical weapons. This is not to mention the impact that the Syrian crisis has had on the surrounding region—particularly in light of the fact that Syria is located in the heart of the region, bordering four other states. We have also heard the regime warn that the fire will spread beyond Syria, in reference to these four states.
Although this crisis has entered the stage where accusations of chemical weapons use are being traded, nobody seems willing to intervene militarily because of the complexity of the crisis. It may also be that the involved parties are seeking to avoid a reoccurrence of an experience like Iraq. It is likely that in the days to come, we will see increasing diplomatic pressure—particularly on Syria’s allies—through a number of different means, including attempts to send UN inspectors. We will also see more arms and logistical support being provided to the Syrian opposition in a bid to strengthen their position against the Assad regime. However, the most important goal is to ensure that there is a clear vision for the day after the regime’s collapse.

Stalled Arab Peace Initiative Reaffirmed
David Makovsky/Washington Institute
If it is to be a catalyst for action, the API will require a more direct approach with Israel.
Post-publication update: Secretary of State John Kerry hailed the move of the Arab League delegation as “a very big step forward.” In Israel, the reaction was more mixed. Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu made his first visit to the Foreign Ministry since also assuming the position of foreign minister in the new government. In his remarks, he stated that peace with the Palestinians was important so that Israel could avoid being a “binational state.” Yet he made no reference to the Arab League statement. Other officials, on background, termed it a "suggestion" and asserted that Israeli-Palestinian talks should be based on no preconditions. However, two cabinet ministers did offer support: Justice Minister Tzipi Livni said, “It is important for the Palestinians to know that they have the support of the Arab world for a negotiated peace agreement that ends the conflict,” adding “it’s imperative for the Israeli public to know that peace with the Palestinians means peace with the entire Arab world.” Science Minister Yaakov Peri, a member of Yair Lapid’s “There Is a Future” Party and former head of the Shin Bet, expressed support that the landswap idea could restore prospects for peace and enable Israel to retain settlement blocs.
Blair House was the setting on April 29 for a meeting between an Arab League panel, Secretary of State John Kerry, and Vice President Joe Biden. Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who leads the Arab League API follow-up committee, headed the Arab League delegation; league secretary-general Nabil el-Araby, as well as the foreign ministers of Egypt, Bahrain, and Jordan, the Lebanese ambassador to Washington Antoine Chedid, and a representative of the Palestinian Authority (PA) joined him. Saudi Arabia was represented by Adel Jubair, its ambassador to Washington (it is unclear whether Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was absent due to ill-health or longstanding friction with Qatar). All parties reaffirmed their support of the API along with land exchange, or "landswaps," as part of a final peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.
Al-Thani stated that the Arabs would support "comparable, mutually agreed, and minor" landswaps. The concept of landswaps is one that Yasser Arafat accepted on behalf of the Palestinians in the 1990s; he recognized that while any final deal would not mark a return to the precise boundaries that existed before the 1967 war, the equivalent of such lines could be achieved through a land exchange -- whereby Israel would yield land within the pre-1967 lines and thus retain some West Bank settlements adjacent to the boundary. As early as 1969, the U.S. Rogers Plan articulated that "While recognized political boundaries must be established, and agreed upon by the parties, any change in the preexisting lines should not reflect the weight of conquest and should be confined to insubstantial alterations required for mutual security." Thus, even if the idea of landswaps is not new, the Arab League could now provide political cover for Palestinians willing to explore more innovative ideas. The Qatari statement brings the Arabs closer to the two-state vision articulated by President Obama in May 2011 when he called explicitly for landswaps -- with the pre-1967 lines as a baseline rather than the endpoint -- as part of a deal with Israel.
To date, Secretary Kerry has made three trips to Israel and the West Bank to explore resumption of peace talks and reaffirmation of the API, which he views as vital to moving forward with Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. Moreover, U.S. senior officials hope that the API will foster revival of direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and ensure that Arab states are more supportive of the PA. Nevertheless, Qatar, although heading yesterday's delegation, has been funding Hamas, the group challenging the PA. While Qatar has provided $400 million worth of construction materials to Hamas in Gaza via Egypt, the PA has had financial problems. It is known that some of the disruption of aid to the PA was due to money withheld by the United States and tax receipts not transferred by the Palestinians. Yet the PA has also had a shortfall of aid due to the paucity of Arab contributions. In January, Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad acknowledged the disrupted U.S. and Israeli funding, but added, “The financing problem that we've had in the last few years is solely due to some Arab donors not fulfilling their pledge of support in accordance with Arab League resolutions." It is believed that Kerry also discussed with the Arab leaders the possibility of big employment --private and public sector projects -- for West Bank Palestinians.
Origins of the API
The Arab Peace Initiative was first proposed at an Arab summit in Beirut in March 2002. At its core, it declared that the twenty-two Arab states would engage in "normal relations" with Israel if Israel agreed to a Palestinian state and to "full Israeli withdrawal from all the Arab territories occupied since June 1967" -- i.e., the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, and the Golan Heights. (API makes special reference to full withdrawal from the Golan.) The API also stipulates the “achievement of a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem to be agreed upon in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution 194.” In contrast to Security Council resolutions, General Assembly resolutions are always nonbinding, yet Palestinians often invoke the passage in Resolution 194 whereby residents who favored peace with Israel could return to their homes as "right of return," even through this term is not explicitly used. The mention of “agreed upon” in the API wording is sometimes whispered by Arab officials as suggesting that Israel would have a veto on refugee return, but this is never spelled out in any Arab document.
The original version of the API was somewhat different. In a February 2002 interview by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, Saudi crown prince Abdullah called for "full normalization of relations" in return for a "full withdrawal." He did not discuss the refugee issue. At the same time, on the favorable side, it should be pointed out that either variation was in marked contrast to the 1967 Arab Summit in Khartoum, which mandated no negotiations, no recognition, and no peace with Israel. Given all the friction between Israel and the Palestinians and the upheaval in the Arab world since 2002, it is interesting that the API is still extant.
Why the API is stalled
Despite its image as a foundational contribution to the Roadmap for Peace (2003) and the Annapolis Conference (2008), the API has failed to translate into an effective mechanism for Arab-Israeli peace.
Arabs blamed the Bush administration and Israeli government for API's lack of success, saying that they failed to take it seriously. Israelis were stung that the API had its inception on the same day an Israeli hotel was blown up during Passover, killing civilians -- a tragedy that was not even mentioned at the Beirut Arab League summit. Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert did indeed praise the API, while Ariel Sharon and Binyamin Netanyahu have been more hesitant in their support due to the reference to Resolution 194 and the call for full withdrawal on all fronts to the pre-1967 lines. At present, Israelis cannot foresee the feasibility, let alone the desirability, of withdrawing from the Golan Heights while civil war decimates Syria. Israel complains that the Arab League has never even sent a full delegation to Israel to discuss the API. And, of course, the regional upheaval in the Mideast that began in early 2011 has pushed the API further back in priorities since the early post-9/11 days. Moreover, the recent Arab League summit in March did not mention the idea of "normal relations," but did call for full withdrawal in return for peace. The summit opposed the idea that "Israel declare itself a Jewish state" and the Qatari leadership announced a contribution of $250 million toward a billion-dollar fund so that Jerusalem could retain its "Arab and Islamic identity."
How the API could be more effective
A few steps can be taken to make the API more effective. First is the issue of sequencing: the implication that Israel would need to withdraw from everywhere before the API can be enacted. As such, every step in this withdrawal would be hard fought in Israel. For the initiative to work, Israel and the Arab world must each take steps in response to the other, in parallel so to speak. A back-loaded approach will not reinforce the fragile progress between the parties, and a front-loaded approach is equally unrealistic. Even though it is likely that Washington will want the Arab states to take interim steps, doing this formally could increase the likelihood of Arab demands on Israel and a move away from bilateral negotiations.
Second is the issue of creating more clarity and flexibility in the API's terms. Given the chaos in Syria, it is hard to believe any Arab leader would expect Israel to withdraw from the Golan -- at least not now. Furthermore, it would be helpful if the Arabs would clarify that while all Palestinians could go to a Palestinian state, Israel would have the sovereign right whether to admit refugees into Israel.
Finally, a hopeful passage of the API says that if its terms are fulfilled, Arab League states would "consider the Arab-Israeli conflict ended, and enter into a peace agreement with Israel, and provide security for all the states of the region." It is legitimate to ask Arab states -- even those who already have peace agreements with Israel -- to discuss with Israel now how it views "security for all states in the region" in the event that Israel accepts the API.
Conclusion
A shifting regional environment will not make it easy for Kerry to engage the Arabs, given their other priorities. In principle, Kerry is correct in assessing that the political cover of Arab states could be helpful to Israelis and Palestinians. For the API to be a catalyst for action, however, it needs a different approach than has been tried before now: a more direct approach with Israel.
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler distinguished fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute.