Bible Quotation for today/Jesus On the Cross

Saint John 19/31-37/Since it was the day of Preparation, the Jews did not want the bodies left on the cross during the sabbath, especially because that sabbath was a day of great solemnity. So they asked Pilate to have the legs of the crucified men broken and the bodies removed. Then the soldiers came and broke the legs of the first and of the other who had been crucified with him. But when they came to Jesus and saw that he was already dead, they did not break his legs. Instead, one of the soldiers pierced his side with a spear, and at once blood and water came out. (He who saw this has testified so that you also may believe. His testimony is true, and he knows that he tells the truth.) These things occurred so that the scripture might be fulfilled, ‘None of his bones shall be broken.’ And again another passage of scripture says, ‘They will look on the one whom they have pierced.’
 

Letter to the Hebrews 12/12-21.
Therefore lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make straight paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint, but rather be healed. Pursue peace with everyone, and the holiness without which no one will see the Lord. See to it that no one fails to obtain the grace of God; that no root of bitterness springs up and causes trouble, and through it many become defiled. See to it that no one becomes like Esau, an immoral and godless person, who sold his birthright for a single meal. You know that later, when he wanted to inherit the blessing, he was rejected, for he found no chance to repent, even though he sought the blessing with tears. You have not come to something that can be touched, a blazing fire, and darkness, and gloom, and a tempest, and the sound of a trumpet, and a voice whose words made the hearers beg that not another word be spoken to them. (For they could not endure the order that was given, ‘If even an animal touches the mountain, it shall be stoned to death.’ Indeed, so terrifying was the sight that Moses said, ‘I tremble with fear.’)

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources

Egypt: To Fail, or Not to Fail? That is the Question/By: Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/March 29/13

Youth Activism in the Small Gulf States/Lori Plotkin Boghardt/Washington Institute/March 29/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 29/13

Cyprus jails Hezbollah man for plot to kill Israelis
Bulgaria: EU could still act against Hezbollah
Hezbollah MP: Next PM should back resistance
Hezbollah, FPM are pushing for adoption of the Orthodox law
50 companies apply to win licenses for oil exploration off Lebanon's coast
Lebanon president sets April 5, 6 for naming a new PM
What Lebanon's Mikati Lacked To Succeed as Prime Minister

Lebanese banks mull leaving Cyprus
Widespread condemnation as slain Druze sheikh laid to rest
Kidnapping saga continues in Arsal
Troubling Times for Once Mighty Hezbollah

Three Lebanese freed after being abducted in Nigeria
52 firms vie for Lebanon oil and gas
President Michel Sleiman gives parties more time before PM consultations

Lebanese High-ranking judge Ghassan Rabbah was dismissed over corruption
Health Ministry In Lebanon rebuts Sukkarieh’s claims on postnatal deaths
Hezbollah MP Nawaf Musawi: Next PM should back resistance

Iran summons Saudi envoy over spy ring claim
American who fought with Al Qaeda against Syria's Assad arrested in Virginia
Syria's European Jihadis
Russia says Arab League abandons Syria peace bids
Greek envoy: Israel-Greece ties remain unchanged

Mortar bombs strike Damascus University

Bulgaria: EU could still act against Hezbollah
By REUTERS 03/27/2013/Interim PM says Bulgaria will "provide needed evidence" to place Hezbollah on EU's terror blacklist following Burgas bombing. BRUSSELS - Bulgaria will provide more evidence Hezbollah planned an attack that killed five Israelis last year, in a move it said on Wednesday should convince European Union countries to put the Islamist group on its terrorist list. Bulgaria accused the Lebanese militant movement on Feb. 5 of carrying out a bomb attack on a bus in the Black Sea city of Burgas that killed the Israelis and their Bulgarian driver last July.
This led the EU to consider putting the group on its list of terrorist organizations, according to a spokeswoman for the bloc on Feb. 6. But many European governments are cautious about imposing sanctions on Hezbollah, arguing it could fuel tensions in the Middle East. Bulgaria presented the results of its bomb probe to EU foreign ministers on Feb. 18, urging them to take a harder stance towards Hezbollah. But two days later, Bulgaria's government resigned after mass protests over an economic crisis.
Diplomat Marin Raikov, appointed interim prime minister pending elections in May, has said Bulgaria will not initiate the EU procedure for blacklisting Hezbollah. Any other EU government could request such a move, but none has yet done so. Some EU countries were "not sufficiently convinced" by Bulgaria's evidence, Raikov said in Brussels on Wednesday.
"For Bulgaria it is of key importance to have a common position, to have a consensus on this [within the EU]," he told reporters during a visit to NATO headquarters.
"We will continue the investigation. We will continue to work on this very seriously, very actively. We will provide the needed evidence," he said.
"But it's not for Bulgaria to initiate the technical procedure for the listing [of Hezbollah]. I think that our partners will be able to do this once they reach a certain level of consensus on this issue," he said. Bulgaria has not given a reason for not requesting an EU listing of Hezbollah. But Bulgarian opposition groups have argued the country could open itself up to more attacks if it takes the lead in blacklisting Hezbollah. Hezbollah has dismissed Bulgaria's accusations and accused Israel of waging a smear campaign against it. Israel blamed the attack in Burgas on Iran and Hezbollah. Iran has denied responsibility and accused Israel of plotting and carrying out the bus bombing.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigned last week after a cabinet dispute with Hezbollah, a dominant force in Lebanese politics. In Europe, only the Netherlands lists Hezbollah as a terrorist group, while Britain blacklists its military wing. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said earlier this month that Britain would be in favor of Hezbollah's military wing being blacklisted at European level as well. European governments and companies must cease any financial dealings with groups on the list.

Cyprus jails Hezbollah man for plot to kill Israelis
By BENJAMIN WEINTHAL, JERUSALEM POST CORRESPONDENT 03/28/2013/ Criminal court in Limassol sentences Hezbollah operative to 4 years prison for plotting to kill Israeli tourists. BERLIN – A criminal court in Limassol, Cyprus, on Thursday sentenced Hossam Taleb Yaacoub to four years in prison for plotting to kill Israeli tourists on the island.
The Jerusalem Post has learned that Yaacoub has 10 days to appeal his conviction. He admitted his membership in Hezbollah and that he watched Israeli flights land in Cyprus and documented the movements of Israelis and the locations they stayed at. Cyprus criminal court convicts Hezbollah memberBulgaria: EU could still act against Hezbollah“There is no doubt these are serious crimes which could have potentially endangered Israeli citizens and targets in the republic,” the three-member court said during sentencing.
The Cypriot court convicted Yaacoub on five counts of participating in a criminal organization and agreeing to commit a crime.Yaacoub’s conviction may add greater urgency to European Union talks on whether to include Hezbollah in its terror list. EU countries such as Austria and Germany have including Hezbollah on its terror list because of insufficient legal evidence. The Cyprus conviction represents the first conviction of a Hezbollah member in a European court. The 24-year-old Yaacoub is a Swedish-Lebanese citizen who used France and the Netherlands as locations to carry out work for Hezbollah, according to his testimony at the trial.
He was convicted of five out of eight criminal charges. Yaacoub was arrested two weeks before an alleged Iran- Hezbollah operation blew up an Israeli tour bus in Bulgaria in July 2012, killing five Israelis and their Bulgarian bus driver. An additional 32 Israelis were wounded.
Yaacoub pleaded not guilty.
He admitted he was a member of Hezbollah, saying he would carry out innocent errands for a handler code-named Ayman, whom he could not fully identify because he always wore a hood.
Yaacoub’s jail term will run concurrently with his period in custody since July.Meanwhile, two alleged Hezbollah operatives who participated in the Bulgaria bombing are believed to be in Lebanon. Both used European locations to carry out their terror attack, including traveling through Poland and Romania.
Tsvetan Tsvetanov, then- Bulgarian interior minister, announced in February that Hezbollah operatives had been responsible for the Burgas attack. Tsvetanov said the two suspected perpetrators “were members of the militant wing of Hezbollah” and added that investigators had found information “showing the financing and connection between Hezbollah and the two suspects.”
Bulgaria’s interim Prime Minister, Marin Raikov, said Bulgaria will “provide needed evidence” to place Hezbollah on EU’s terror blacklist. But many European governments are cautious about imposing sanctions on Hezbollah, arguing it could fuel tensions in the Middle East. Raikov has said Bulgaria will not initiate the EU procedure for blacklisting Hezbollah.
Any other EU government could request such a move, but none has yet done so.
Some EU countries were “not sufficiently convinced” by Bulgaria’s evidence, Raikov said in Brussels on Wednesday.
“For Bulgaria, it is of key importance to have a common position, to have a consensus on this [within the EU],” he told reporters during a visit to NATO headquarters.
“We will continue the investigation. We will continue to work on this very seriously, very actively. We will provide the needed evidence,” he said.“But it’s not for Bulgaria to initiate the technical procedure for the listing [of Hezbollah]. I think that our partners will be able to do this, once they reach a certain level of consensus on this issue,” he said.
Bulgaria has not given a reason for not requesting an EU listing of Hezbollah. But Bulgarian opposition groups have argued the country could open itself up to more attacks, if it takes the lead in blacklisting Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has dismissed Bulgaria’s accusations and accused Israel of waging a smear campaign against it.
Israel and the United Sates blamed the attack in Burgas on Iran and Hezbollah. Iran has denied responsibility and accused Israel of plotting and carrying out the bus bombing.
Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati resigned last week after a cabinet dispute with Hezbollah, a dominant force in Lebanese politics. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said earlier this month that Britain would be in favor of Hezbollah’s military wing being blacklisted at the European level, which would result in European governments and companies being required to cease any financial dealings with groups on the list.
France has resisted including Hezbollah in the EU terror list, because it fears that it will lose diplomatic leverage in Lebanon. The Netherlands lists Hezbollah’s entire organization as a terror entity.
Reuters contributed to this report.

Troubling Times for Once Mighty Hezbollah
Algemeiner/Haifa, Israel –Hizballah’s continuing alliance with embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has the notorious Shia political and military movement navigating choppier waters than at any other time in recent memory. Led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah – the Iranian-backed preacher rarely seen in public these days for fear he might be assassinated – Hizballah had been the unquestioned Shia force in Lebanon. But cracks have begun to appear as both internal dissent and external pressures have been brought to bear and reveal a vulnerability that had rarely, if ever, been seen before.
President Obama – angry at Hizballah’s continued support of the Assad regime – didn’t mince his words in Jerusalem March 21: “Every country that values justice should call Hizballah what it truly is – a terrorist organization.”
That’s a much more direct statement than administration officials previously were willing to make. In 2010, then-National Security Advisor and current CIA Director John Brennan spoke of trying “to build up the more moderate elements” of the organization.
It’s a fast fall from Hizballah’s previous high-point of influence, Mordechai Kedar, an Israeli scholar of Arabic specializing in Islamic movements and ideology, told the Investigative Project on Terrorism. “Hizballah was the most popular organisation in the Arab world after the 2006 Lebanon War [against Israel], but now their image is as bad as it could be because Hizballah is considered as a collaborator with the most vicious of regimes [Syria]. They have lost much of the image they gained after the 2006 war.”
In a December report, the United Nations confirmed that Hizballah was fighting alongside the Assad regime in Syria.
“From the outside point of view, they [Hizballah] are supporting Assad by sending hundreds of combatants to Syria in order to preserve the regime, because they know that if they are not loyal to their friend, no-one will be their friend in the future,” Kedar explained. “Secondly, they need the Syrian regime as the bridge between Iran and Lebanon. It would be very hard for them to function without Syrian mediation between Lebanon and Iran when it comes to supplies, logistics, missiles and all the weapons that they need.”
Having been supported by both Syria and Iran for many years, Hizballah determined that it must stand by the Syrian regime even though it appears to be fighting a losing battle. Failure to do so could cost it financial support from Iran, leaving Hizballah – once Assad has gone – with no significant nation state supporting their cause.
But according to Kedar – who specialized in Syria during his 25 years in Israeli military intelligence – Hizballah faces no lesser difficulties from within Lebanon, and is gradually coming under more pressure from within its own ranks. Shia leader Mohammed Ali al-Husseini accuses Nasrallah of “dragging Lebanon into the abyss and that the Shiites in Lebanon, and Lebanon itself, will pay a high price for this behavior,” Kedar said. “But also from inside Hizballah there are voices today – not out loud, but behind the scenes – which claim that gambling on the Syrian horse is gambling on the wrong horse, and Hizballah will be associated forever with Assad’s regime, especially its last brutal stages of life. This will hurt Hizballah and could even persuade Europe to place them on its list of terror organizations.”
Iran’s support makes Nasrallah “immune, because not only does he have their political support, he has the money and the control over the resources of Hizballah, and most importantly of all, the backing of Ayatollah Khamenei [Iran's Supreme Leader].”
Al-Husseini is the leader of the Arabic Islamic Congress (AIC) and one of a growing number of high-profile Lebanese Shia who believe that Hizballah is wrong for their community and wrong for Lebanon. The U.S. has allegedly reached out to al-Husseini as a potential partner in undermining Hizballah. Al Husseini’s reputation has suffered a number of setbacks however, including being tried and later acquitted of being an Israeli spy, while U.S diplomatic cables leaked by Wikileaks in December 2011 cast doubt on just how genuine his rift with Hizballah really is.
“AIC headquarters are located on the Beirut airport highway, a Hizballah-dominated area,” the cable noted. “Contacts in the Beirut southern suburbs observed that Hizballah has neither harassed nor interfered with AIC.”
The long-standing Amal movement (another allegedly courted by the U.S.), is also seen as a more moderate Shia force and gained 13 seats to Hizballah’s 12 in the 2009 Lebanese general election. But Amal, led by Nabih Berri, has endured years of in-fighting while claims of nepotism and corruption have so far negated its political effectiveness. Despite opportunities to increase their influence amongst the Shia population those groups opposed to Hizballah have failed so far to make any real impression in gaining ground on the “Party of God.”
If Hizballah’s influence wanes it will be due to blindly supporting Assad in Syria, its reduced ability to function and provide the social support to its community that has come through its financial alliance with Syria and Iran, and possibly because of the emergence of a new political Shia force in South Lebanon.
On March 20 Israel’s Ynet.com reported that “a new political movement is gathering followers right in the Hizballah stronghold of Beirut’s southern suburb… Hizballah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, once the undisputed stars of the Arab world, are rattled by surprise opposition from within their own ranks.”
The recently formed Movement for the Lebanese Citizen (MLC) is led by Imad Kamiche, a former Hizballah “operative.” Ynet.com – the online version of Israel’s highly regarded daily newspaper Yediot Ahronot – suggests MLC is “attempting to present an alternative to the rigidly Shiite framework represented by Hezbollah and Amal, and place the Lebanese citizen at the forefront, regardless of ethnicity.”
Hizballah suddenly appears keen to portray itself as tolerant of dissenting voices. “The fact that opposition elements are still residing in Beirut’s southern suburb is a testimony to the group’s tolerance,” a spokesman said. The article cited sources who added that “Hizballah actually wishes to absorb the opposition and their criticism, even contacting them for that purpose.” MLC founder Kamiche, however, hinted that he had been given clear “advice” to stay out of the political arena, a thinly veiled hint that Hizballah will only tolerate his opposing voice to a certain point.
This is supposed to be an election year in Lebanon. Sheikh Nasrallah and the Hizballah leadership will surely be aware that their intervention in the Syrian Civil War could cause a backlash at the ballot box and significantly reduce their share of the vote. Matt Levitt, director of The Washington Institute’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, suggested recently that Hizballah still has to nail its colors to the Iranian mast to the exclusion of almost all other political and military considerations.
“What we see now is that Hezbollah is going to do things today that are in Iran’s interest even if they expressly run counter to the interests of Lebanon and Hezbollah’s own interest there,” Levitt argued. “People tend to misunderstand the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran, which has changed over time but is now extremely close. The U.S. intelligence community has publicly described this as a ‘strategic partnership.’ But people don’t fully appreciate Hezbollah’s ideological commitment to the concept of ‘velayat-e faqih,’ or guardianship of the jurists, which holds that a Shiite Islamic cleric should also serve as supreme head of government. For Hezbollah, this means the Iranian leadership is also their leader – not for every foot soldier, but for Hezbollah’s senior leaders, absolutely.”
Hizballah’s reputation had already been seriously damaged in the eyes of many EU states by its role in Syria, but the EU has thus far proved reluctant to officially designate it a terrorist organization. The recent confirmation by the Bulgarian government investigation that Hizballah was responsible for the bombing of a bus of Israeli tourists at Burgas last year was another blow to the Shia force’s credibility and may finally persuade the EU to act.
The EU’s argument that such a designation might destabilize the fragile Lebanese political status quo was left null and void on Friday evening when the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati – which included Hizballah – resigned, citing irreconcilable positions between the various factions over scheduling elections. Mikati’s spokesman, Fares Gemayyel, simply said, “The prime minister cannot work in such conditions. He needs to respect the constitution.”A day earlier in Cyprus came the first conviction of a Hizballah member by an EU state as a court in Limassol found Hossam Taleb Yaacoub guilty of “being a member of a criminal organization.” Because the EU has not yet designated Hizballah a terror organization, the original charges of “being a member of a terrorist organisation” had to be amended to obtain a successful conviction under current Cypriot and EU law. Yaacoub was found guilty on five out of eight charges before the court.
“The United States applauds the government of Cyprus for its professional investigation and successful conviction in court today of Hezbollah operative Hossam Taleb Yaacoub on a range of charges involving his surveillance activities of Israeli tourist targets,” said State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. “Today’s verdict underscores the need for our European allies – and other governments around the world – to crack down on this deadly group and to send a strong message that Hezbollah can no longer operate with impunity, at home or abroad.”
Writing on February 6 for the Washington Institute, Matt Levitt, taking into account the EU position and Hizballah’s support of the Syrian regime, came to the following conclusion:
“The ‘Party of God’ has turned its ‘weapons of resistance’ not on Israel, but on fellow Muslims. This, more so than the UN indictment of four of its members for the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, and more so than the exposure of Hizballah operations in places like Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Thailand, and Turkey, is what now threatens Hizballah’s standing as a Lebanese political party and social movement.”
**Paul Alster is an Israel-based journalist who blogs at paulalster.com and can be followed on Twitter @paul_alster

Hezbollah, FPM are pushing for adoption of the Orthodox law
March 27, 2013/A Hezbollah delegation held talks on Wednesday with Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun in Rabiyah to discuss the electoral law that will be used in the upcoming elections, Hezbollah’s Al Manar reported on Wednesday. “We hope that the Orthodox Gathering draft law will be the first article of the agenda of the next parliament session,” Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s political aide Hussein Khalil was quoted by Al Manar as saying after the meeting. “The date and agenda of the session is up to the speaker, who is holding consultations with various political powers,” Khalil , who did not reveal any other details on the closed door discussions added. The meeting, was reportedly attended by Amal minister Ali Hassan Khalil and Aoun’s son-in-law, energy minister Gibran Bassil.Al Manar also reported that MPs of Hezbollah, Amal Movement and Free Patriotic Movement held a meeting at the Parliament Wednesday in Beirut’s Nijmeh Square, during which they urged Amal chief Speaker Nabih Berri to hold a parliamentary session for the approval of the so-called Orthodox Gathering draft-law. The Orthodox draft law, which calls for proportional voting along sectarian lines had been endorsed by the country’s four major Christian parties. However, it was met with severe opposition from the Future Movement, the PSP, the independent March 14 Christian MPs, as well as President Michel Suleiman and caretaker PM Nagib Mikati
The Orthodox law was approved by the parliamentary joint commissions in February, but sparked angry responses from the Future Movement, independent March 14 Christians and the Progressive Socialist Party who refuse it for its sectarian nature. In an interview published early March by As-Safir newspaper, Mikati reiterated his call for a consensual electoral law and his rejection of the so called Orthodox Gathering electoral draft law.
“The Orthodox law will legalize federalism and cantons and will undermine the Taif Accord,” Mikati who has since resigned told the daily.
The PSP leader was quoted today as saying ” If Speaker Berri will include the Orthodox draft law in the agenda, all our MPs will walk out from the parliament “.

Kidnapping saga continues in Arsal
March 29, 2013/By Rakan al-Fakih/The Daily Star
HERMEL/ARSAL, Lebanon: Tensions continued to run high in the northern Bekaa Valley Thursday despite several promising developments in the hostage standoff that has troubled the region since Saturday.
The Jaafar clan released three of their seven remaining hostages, but issued a stern warning to the people of Arsal that they would not free the rest until their own Hussein Kamel Jaafar was returned to them. The four remaining hostages were identified as Hussein Rayed, Mohammad Rayed, Mohammad al-Hujeiri and Nimr al-Fliti. Hamza and Mustafa Ezzedine were both released.
Jaafar was kidnapped from the Arsal area Saturday night and reportedly taken over the border into the Syrian town of Yabrud. Since then, his notoriously protective clan has kidnapped no less than 11 people from Arsal, releasing all but four over the course of the week.
After four days of silence, Jaafar’s kidnappers finally contacted the family late Wednesday night to assure them of Jaafar’s safety and demand $1 million in ransom. Several hundred clan leaders met in Sahlaat al-Maa, Hermel, Thursday morning to discuss a plan of action. “We’re not going to pay the ransom, and Arsal is responsible” if Jaafar comes to harm, Nafez Jaafar, one of the clan leaders, told The Daily Star following the meeting.
“We are a tribe. Hussein Jaafar was kidnapped in Arsal. We have nothing to do with those who kidnapped him. The people of Arsal know who took him ... they are responsible for the fate of our son. This is our custom.”
Although the clan leaders collectively decided to issue a ban on more kidnappings, Jaafar admitted that enforcing the decision for some 15,000 members of the clan can be difficult. Thursday morning saw the brief kidnapping of Khalid Hujeiri, an Arsal native, by renegade members of the clan who quickly caved to family pressure and turned him over to authorities.
Both the Jaafars and local officials from Arsal have ruled out any political motive for the kidnapping that sparked the crisis. Some, such as top Lebanese military and security officials, maintain it stemmed from a personal dispute over smuggling revenues. Jaafar worked as a truck driver for a “company” involved in the semiofficial smuggling of scrap metal, fuel and other materials between Syria and Lebanon. While the black market in nothing new in the country’s remote border regions, local residents say illicit trade has skyrocketed since the crisis in Syria and the withdrawal of the Syrian army from border areas two months ago.
The hostage crisis has strained the historically good relations between the Shiite Jaafar clan and the predominantly Sunni town of Arsal, where residents and community leaders deny any knowledge of or involvement in Jaafar’s abduction. An official delegation from the town has made three separate trips into Syria, most recently to Yabrud, to try and discover the fate of Jaafar and negotiate his release.
“The people of Arsal, and particularly myself ... share very old ties with the Jaafar family,” said Mohammad Hujeiri, a local leader. Hujeiri was emphatic that if individuals from Arsal were implicated in Jaafar’s kidnapping, the town would not protect them, but the Jaafar clan had yet to present them with any names.
“I extend my greetings to the Jaafar clan, and we ask them to help us discover the truth,” he added. “We are ready to make every effort to help, because as I said the Jaafars are good people and our relationship with them is good. We will not allow it to be damaged, by kidnapping or anything else.”
Official statements from a local follow-up committee on the kidnappings have emphasized Arsal and the Jaafar clan’s shared history and brotherly relations, but interviews with some residents indicated a simmering resentment that could exacerbate existing divisions. “This innocent guy was going to work and the Jaafars kidnapped him,” said one man who declined to give his name. “The Jaafars are known for smuggling and drugs and dirty stuff. ... They should not have done that.”Others echoed Hujeiri’s sentiments and blamed a few bad elements for trying to ignite sectarian conflict where there was none before. “We live side by side and we will die side by side,” Myassar Hujeiri, a local dentist, said of the neighboring Shiite towns and villages.

Three Lebanese freed after being abducted in Nigeria
March 29, 2013 /The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Lebanese nationals abducted in a Nigerian city were released overnight Thursday, the director-general of the Foreign Affairs Ministry told The Daily Star.
Three Lebanese were abducted by gunmen from their home in the upscale Victoria Island area of Lagos earlier this week, a few weeks after two other Lebanese were snatched along with five foreigners in the country’s northern region.“All three were released and they were home and safe by midnight,” said director-general Haitham Joumaa.The kidnapped Lebanese were identified by sources in Nigeria as the brothers Karim and Ali Matar from the southern village of Zrarieh in Sidon, and Mohammad Haidar from the village of Shawkin in Nabatieh. Commenting on the instability in the Central African Republic and the safety of Lebanese nationals living there, Joumaa said that the fighting had ceased and all Lebanese were unharmed.

Lebanese High-ranking judge Ghassan Rabbah was dismissed over corruption
March 29, 2013/By Youssef Diab/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: A high-ranking judge was dismissed by caretaker Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi Thursday after being caught on tape allegedly requesting a $1 million bribe, a judicial source told The Daily Star.According to the source, Judge Ghassan Rabbah was referred to the Higher Disciplinary Council in February 2012 on charges of accepting a bribe to rule in favor of one person against another in a case. Contacted by The Daily Star, Rabbah said he preferred to not comment on the details of the case, but said he had “no chance to defend myself” before the decision was made, and that he would likely ask for the case to be reconsidered by ministry officials. The sources said that Rabbah rejected an offer by the Higher Judicial Council and Qortbawi to resign from his post to avoid being held accountable for his actions. Rabbah was the presiding magistrate on a long-simmering case between two brothers from the Saade family.“Evidence found on a tape implicated Rabbah negotiating the bribe and asking a share for his advisers,” a judicial source said.
“Accusations were not made against the judge’s advisers due to their lack of knowledge of the negotiations between Rabbah and one of the Saade brothers,” the source added.Rabbah, who headed a Beirut chamber of the Court of Cassation, was a member of the Higher Judicial Council. He is also a professor.

Health Ministry In Lebanon rebuts Sukkarieh’s claims on postnatal deaths
March 29, 2013/By Jana El Hassan/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A report documenting eight postnatal deaths in different hospitals was handed to State Prosecutor Judge Hatem Madi Thursday, judicial sources told The Daily Star. Madi earlier this month tasked the Central Criminal Investigation Department with looking into the incidents, which were originally relayed to the judiciary by former Baalbek-Hermel MP, Ismail Sukkarieh. But the Health Ministry issued a statement defending its work and directly rebutting Sukkarieh’s claims. “Medical reports with the ministry prove that the report submitted to the judiciary based on former MP Ismail Sukkarieh’s claims is inaccurate,” the statement said. It added that the ministry requested Sukkarieh be questioned by the judiciary about his claims. The head of the Association of Private Hospitals, Suleiman Haroun, also dismissed the former lawmaker’s claims and said investigations carried out within the ministry proved Sukkarieh’s claims were false.Haroun added that 15 or 17 postnatal deaths were reported in 2012 across Lebanon, but that the cases were a result of typical medical reasons. “The recorded cases were all related to known causes for maternal deaths,” he said.For his part, Sukkarieh, also a physician, insisted his claims were true and told The Daily Star that the cases he mentioned took place in different hospitals, mostly in the Bekaa Valley region. “Eight women died in the same way after giving birth in different hospitals which raised suspicions over their deaths,” Sukkarieh added. “The injections could not put an end to the [blood vessel] constriction women suffer after giving caesarean births, which means they were ineffective. ... Ultimately, the women bled to death,” he said.Sukkarieh refused to place the blame on a specific party, but was hopeful that the investigations would yield positive results. “We will leave the investigations to the judiciary and see them run their course. ... We cannot draw conclusions when it comes to such a delicate issue,” he said.
Asked about the ministry’s stance on the issue, Sukkarieh played down the significance of its statement, arguing that it hadn’t even carried out the necessary investigations to look into the issue.
“They didn’t refer the drug to laboratories or conduct tests on it, so on which basis are they shrugging me off?” he asked.
Sources with knowledge of the case told The Daily Star that Methergine was the drug used to control postpartum hemorrhaging. Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, a U.S. affiliate of Switzerland-based Novartis AG, made an internal company decision to stop the distribution of Methergine tablets and injections last year. The company subsequently followed up on the issue by submitting a report to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, a part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and recommended that Methergine be added to the FDA list of drugs that should be discontinued.

Sleiman sets date for parliamentary consultations
March 28, 2013/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman Thursday set April 5 and April 6 as the dates for launching binding parliamentary consultations for the naming of a prime minister-designate as Hezbollah stipulated that the talks take into account the principle of the “resistance.”Meanwhile, the U.S. said the process of forming a new Cabinet needed to be solely a “Lebanese one.”
According to the schedule issued by the president’s office, Sleiman will hold separate talks Friday afternoon with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, Future parliamentary bloc chief MP Fouad Siniora and Deputy Parliament Speaker Farid Makari. Sleiman will then meet MPs from the different parliamentary blocs. He will continue his consultations Saturday with further members of parliamentary blocs.Prior to the announcement, Sleiman held separate talks with Mikati and soon-to-be retired police chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi.
Mikati announced the resignation of his government Friday, citing the Cabinet’s failure to pass a proposal to extend Rifi’s term, who will retire April 1, as well as the blocking of a decision to form a supervisory committee for the 2013 polls. Meanwhile, Hezbollah MP Nawaf Musawi said Thursday parliamentary consultations to name the new prime minister-designate needed to take into account the principle of the resistance. “Any naming of the prime minister must [firstly] take into account the principle of the resistance [Hezbollah] and secondly the government, through its formation, should secure effective partnership to produce national decision-making,” the Hezbollah MP said during a ceremony in south Lebanon. Political sources told The Daily Star Wednesday that Mikati stands a good chance of being re-nominated to head the new government
In a related development, the U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly held talks with Mikati and Berri in separate meetings. An embassy statement said the talks focused on bilateral ties as well as the political and security situation in Lebanon and regional events.It said Connelly expressed the U.S.’s support for efforts to form a new government. “This process is, and must be, a Lebanese process,” Connelly stressed. She reiterated Washington’s position that the “Lebanese people deserve a government that reflects their aspirations and will strengthen Lebanon’s stability, sovereignty, and independence.”
Connelly also underscored that Lebanon’s “democratic process is an immensely valuable achievement that serves as an example to the region, especially during this period of democratic change in the Middle East.” The U.S. envoy also conveyed her country’s appreciation for the extraordinary efforts exerted by Sleiman, Berri and Mikati “to adhere to Lebanon’s legal and constitutional framework to hold parliamentary elections on time.”

President Michel Sleiman gives parties more time before PM consultations
March 29, 2013/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman will hold binding consultations with parliamentary blocs next week for the naming of a prime minister-designate, an official statement said Thursday, as the United States called for the formation of a new government that would strengthen Lebanon’s stability. Hezbollah set what appeared to be a condition for the premier-designate, demanding that the new Cabinet uphold its support for the party’s armed resistance against Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory as has been the case with previous governments’ policy statements. With Hezbollah’s arsenal being a contentious issue, the party’s insistence that the new Cabinet commit itself to supporting the resistance in its policy statement is expected to complicate the process of forming a government. Speaker Nabih Berri said the picture concerning the shape of the new Cabinet and the premier-designate remained sketchy. “If it is a Cabinet [designed] to hold the elections, the prime minister-designate and the new Cabinet must have certain specifications,” Berri told The Daily Star. “If it is a salvation government, specifications will be different for the prime minister-designate and the new Cabinet,” he added. Political sources said caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati was the favorite to head a salvation government. “But if it is a Cabinet tasked with holding the elections, it is not clear yet who could head it,” a political source said.
Given the monthslong deadlock over a new electoral law and the Cabinet crisis sparked by last week’s resignation of Mikati’s government, “things are heading toward the extension of Parliament’s mandate for two years and the formation of a salvation government,” the source told The Daily Star. “But the formation of such a government will take a long time. A new Cabinet must agree on a new electoral law within two years,” the source said.
Sleiman has set April 5-6 as the dates to poll parliamentary blocs and independent lawmakers on their choice for a new prime minister who would form a new Cabinet, according to a statement from the president’s office.
Based on the outcome of the polling, the candidate who receives the largest number of MPs’ votes will be named a prime minister-designate.
Earlier in the day, Sleiman discussed the Cabinet crisis with Mikati. He also met with Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi, director-general of the Internal Security Forces, who retires on April 1.
Mikati, in office for nearly two years, stepped down on March 22 after Hezbollah and its March 8 allies in the Cabinet blocked his proposal to extend Rifi’s term and also an attempt to form a body to supervise the June 9 elections. Meanwhile, the U.S. called for the formation of a new Cabinet that reflected the aspirations of the Lebanese and would bolster Lebanon’s stability and sovereignty.
Washington’s stance was outlined by U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly after meeting separately with Berri and Mikati. In both meetings, Connelly discussed “bilateral relations as well as the political and security situation in Lebanon and regional events,” according to a U.S. Embassy statement.
It said Connelly expressed U.S. support for efforts to form a new government. “This process is, and must be, a Lebanese process,” she stressed.
She renewed her country’s stance for the parliamentary elections, scheduled on June 9, to be held on time. The U.S. envoy, according to the statement, conveyed her country’s appreciation for the extraordinary efforts exerted by Sleiman, Berri and Mikati “to adhere to Lebanon’s legal and constitutional framework to hold parliamentary elections on time.”
Connelly also met with Rifi, with whom she discussed the security situation in Lebanon and U.S. support for the ISF.
Hezbollah MP Nawaf Musawi said the next premier should back the resistance in the Cabinet’s policy statement as happened with previous governments.
“Any naming of the prime minister must take into account a firm policy to support the resistance [Hezbollah]. The other firm principle is that the [new] government, through its formation, should guarantee an effective partnership to take national decisions at the political and administrative levels,” Musawi told a rally in the southern town of Ayteet. He added that Lebanon’s commitment to the resistance has been mentioned in the government’s policy statements since the 1989 Taif Accord that ended the 1975-90 Civil War. Meanwhile, a tacit rift was reported to be raging between Berri and Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun over the Orthodox Gathering’s controversial electoral proposal, which would see each select its own MPs. Aoun wants Berri to convene the legislature to approve the Orthodox proposal after it won a majority of votes in the joint parliamentary committees, a political source said. But Berri, aware that such a session would be boycotted by Sunni MPs from the Future Movement and Druze MPs from the Progressive Socialist Party, is against holding such a session, the source said.
Instead, Berri favors holding a parliamentary session to abolish the 1960 electoral law, the source added.

Hezbollah MP Nawaf Musawi: Next PM should back resistance
March 28, 2013 /The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Hezbollah MP Nawaf Musawi said Thursday parliamentary consultations to name the new prime minister-designate needed to take into account the principle of the resistance. “Any naming of the prime minister must [firstly] take into account the principle of the resistance [Hezbollah] and secondly the government, through its formation, should secure effective partnership to produce national decisions that are political and administrative,” the Hezbollah lawmaker said. President Michel Sleiman has set April 5 to April 6 as dates for holding parliamentary consultations for the naming of a prime minister designate, who will form the next government.

Widespread condemnation as slain Druze sheikh laid to rest
March 29, 2013 /By Mohammed Zaatari/The Daily Star
SIDON, Lebanon: Political and religious leaders denounced the killing of a Druze sheikh in the southern town of Hasbaya Thursday and called for a thorough investigation to uncover the circumstances surrounding the shooting.
Sheikh Salman al-Harfani’s body was found inside his shop in Hasbaya Wednesday night, causing panic among the predominantly Druze residents of the town.
Sources told The Daily Star that Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Democratic Party chief Talal Arslan visited the city that evening to contain the anger in the wake of the news of the sheikh’s killing. Security sources said Harfani was shot six times by a person wielding a 5mm pistol, according to preliminary investigations into the incident.
According to the sources, police are searching for two suspects who are believed to be involved in the murder.
Schools and shops were closed to observe a day of mourning to mark Harfani’s killing amid an atmosphere of anger and grief that clouded the city.
Druze sheikhs in south Lebanon held an emergency meeting to discuss the repercussions of the murder.
“The sheikhs of Al-Azhar al-Sharif and Al-Bayada and all the region’s residents condemn the targeting of a sheikh known to be a very solemn, serious figure,” the sheikhs said after the meeting.
Harfani’s killing came less than two weeks after a number of assailants attacked four Sunni sheikhs in the Beirut neighborhoods of Shiyah and Khandaq al-Ghamiq, generating anger and protests throughout the country.
In a statement Thursday, the PSP called on the residents of Hasbaya to exercise restraint and wait for the investigation into the murder of Harfani to be concluded. The statement also warned against any reactions on the streets that might destabilize the area.
“Police and security forces should prevent anyone seeking to disturb public order from getting away with using this crime to harm the stability and the spirit of coexistence that this region enjoys,” the PSP statement added.
Harfani was laid to rest in eastern Hasbaya after funeral services that were attended by Druze religious figures from various parts of the country.
Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Naim Hasan condemned the killing in a statement and called on the authorities to speed up investigations and bring the perpetrators to justice.
“We strongly condemn this ugly crime that targeted one of our religious figures, Sheikh Salman al-Harfani,” Hasan said.
A number of people from the nearby towns of Arqoub and Rashaya attended the funeral, while others came from the Chouf region to pay their respects.
Among those attending the funeral were Gen. Salah Eid, who represented Arslan at the funeral, Kamal Abu Ghayda on behalf of Marjayoun-Hasbaya MP Anwar Khalil, and Sheikh Sleiman Jamal al-Din, who represented caretaker Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour.
Meanwhile, Amal Movement officials made a number of contacts with security and judicial officials in the region to follow up on the investigation.
“Efforts should be doubled to arrest the perpetrators of this ugly crime,” said Khalil, who also called on the residents of south Lebanon to remain cautious against such plots.
Separately, the Kataeb Party also condemned the killing of Harfani and said that the murder “has dangerous goals that are part of the series of problems that have rocked Lebanon.”
“Everyone in the region should support the security forces and assist them in bringing the killers to justice while imposing the harshest sentences on them,” said a statement issued by the Kataeb Party office in south Lebanon.
The statement also said that the killing of Harfani targets the unique values of the town of Hasbaya.
“There is no way to face these plots against the Lebanese except by uniting our ranks in the face of evil,” the statement added.

52 firms vie for Lebanon oil and gas
March 28, 2013/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Fifty-two international oil firms have submitted applications to the Petroleum Administration Committee, the Energy Minister said Thursday, as the deadline for submission of the pre-qualification round expired. The 52 companies, registered in 25 countries, include 14 operators and 38 non-operators, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil said.International companies that applied include Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Dana Gas, Petrogas and many others. One Lebanese company, Consolidated Contractors Energy, was named as an applicant. Bassil added that over 200 companies had withdrawn applications documents but stopped short of applying. This, Bassil said, demonstrated that Lebanon had set very tough conditions for the first licensing round; the minister explained. “Lebanon’s conditions were much tougher than in neighboring countries but the interest of oil and a gas company was higher,” he said. He said this signals international confidence in Lebanon, its transparent management of the oil and gas sector and highly promising hydrocarbon resources on the country’s off-shore. Thirty different firms from 20 countries had purchased seismic data of the potential reserves off the country’s coast for nearly $110 million, netting Lebanon over $34 million in revenues.

 

What Lebanon's Mikati Lacked To Succeed as Prime Minister
By: Hadi Fathallah/ for Al-Monitor Lebanon Pulse. Posted on March 27.
In June 2011, Mikati took up the position yet again, only this time with a deal that was far more complex and a totally undefined role. Unlike 2005, when Mikati came with agreement of all parties to power and a regional and international cover, his second premiership came with disapproval and disagreements, albeit an international cover that overshadowed all regional preferences. Mikati’s acceptance of the role again came with the breaking of coalition with the March 14 movement and, primarily, with the Hariri block.
But unlike what most think, Mikati was never Hezbollah’s choice for premiership. Hezbollah could have voted in any other candidate with the majority that they commanded. Mikati was not even a consensus between regional actors. It was not in the interest of Iran, Syria, Qatar or Saudi Arabia to have Mikati for PM. Mikati assumed his premiership because Lebanon currently, with no godfather, happens to be under direct international parenting, and Mikati was among the few with a proven history in office that fit the bill.
But even with such international cover, Mikati has been susceptible to a lot of headaches and tests since taking office. With a tyrannical majority in his government, Mikati had been exposed to all kinds of political embezzlement, from all sides, both local and regional. As much as he tried to be mediator between factions, taking a centrist approach sometimes, and a neutralist position some other times, Mikati kept on failing everybody: Hezbollah, Hariri, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
The number of headaches that Mikati had to face each day was quite daunting. Nevertheless, his approach to overcoming day-to-day challenges can be described as just pills to ease these headaches. His approach to policymaking has been to put out fires as they arise. But unlike 2005 and the transitional period, Mikati’s role extended to more than firefighting. Mikati’s role was more like of a sea captain in an ocean of transition. With no shore for the Arab Spring in view, Mikati has worked à la mode 2005, with an assumption of regional stability, or a de facto status quo.
So in all this mess, what did Mikati want, and what did he need? Mikati kept on speaking of clear conscience, and in fact, most of what he did was to keep his conscience clear. But from where he sat, he was far from having a clear conscience: an embattled economy with almost 0% GDP growth, continued strikes and a halted economic activity, a 25% bulge in population due to an ongoing influx of Syrian and Palestinian refugees, increased political strife, insecurity and rotating clashes in various parts of the country.
In 2005, Mikati left with a stunning self-image, and an even more stunning label of seasoned crisis manager. But much of Mikati’s dilemma, if one disregards all the fires and changes around him, came from this self-image perception. And when we talk of self-image, we do not mean Mikati all by himself, but also his entourage and advisers. He built on his past success, and they built on his self-image of previous success, which resulted in a virtuous loop of self-complementing and self-dependency.
If we were to group Mikati’s challenges into fires (local and abrupt challenges like the economy and sectarian clashes) and tsunamis (like the regional and global changes), his scheme to handle both was built on his dependency on a two-tier method: For fires, he relied on a small group of personally handpicked advisers, structured above a layer of existing bureaucracy from the legacy of his predecessors. For tsunamis, on the other hand, he was dependent on almost two of his closest business partners, and on his weekly discussions with the international cover represented chiefly by the UN secretary-general’s representative to Lebanon.
Though the two-tier method proved to be a smart, reliable and efficient way for handling policymaking, it also proved to be insufficient. Security challenges got out of hand; foreign policy was independently managed and mandated by shadow parties; a teachers' union challenge spiraled into a national strike; unresolved underdevelopment and a lack of government-provided services; and, above all, a degraded image for the government and the prime minister himself.
So what does Mikati need, if he returns again, as prime minister? Far from the firefighting team he brought, he needs an expanded team that can not only deal with fires, but with the coming tsunamis as well. Mikati needs a more strategic view and analysis, a little less biased and self-righteous advising. Lebanon needs a vibrant government that deals with youth policies and with the youth themselves, who have nothing else to do but burn tires and fight. He needs a team that could solve the structural problems of the education system and that can deflate the current grievances of the underprivileged, a team that could restructure the financial and fiscal system and innovate with it and cut down the rampant corruption, and a team that can reflect the true image of Mikati, and maybe his clear conscience.
Hadi Fathallah is a policy adviser at the Middle East Prospects Forum, a think tank based in Beirut, Lebanon. Previously, Hadi served as an economist and policy consultant at FAO in the Near East and North Africa Regional Office in Cairo, and has consulted for various international organizations including the World Bank, WFP, and UN DESA. Hadi is a fellow of the Cornell Institute for Public Affairs (CIPA) at Cornell University. His thoughts do not reflect the position of any of the institutions he is affiliated with or consults and are his solely.

Youth Activism in the Small Gulf States
Lori Plotkin Boghardt/Washington Institute
March 28, 2013
Young activists will likely be important agents of structural reform in the small Gulf states, and Washington should make more effort to engage them.
Youths have been key drivers of revolutions across the Middle East since the beginning of the Arab uprisings in early 2011. For example, one recent study indicates that more than half of the protestors in the Egyptian revolution were between the ages of 18 and 30. Although young activists have not sparked similarly dramatic change in the small states along the Persian Gulf's western littoral -- Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman -- they will likely play an important role in structural reform and therefore merit more attention from both Washington and their own governments.
YOUTHS PUSHING THE TEMPO
Increasingly muscular youth movements carry important implications regarding the extent of potential change in the Gulf, as already seen in fits and starts in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. Like their counterparts in other Arab states, young Gulf activists tend to pursue political agendas that are more far-reaching than those of traditional opposition elements and older generations. Yet they generally call for legislative, judicial, and other structural reforms rather than all-out revolution.
One notable exception is in Bahrain, where the loosely organized February 14 Youth Coalition is demanding an end to the al-Khalifa monarchy and Washington's close partnership with it, unlike the island's well-established opposition groups. While the chances of achieving that goal are small, the movement's prominence raises the bar in terms what kind of political concessions will be required of the palace.
Likewise in Kuwait, youth coalitions and longstanding opposition elements disagree over the anticipated pace and extent of reform -- the youths desire more rapid change and have pushed harder for a full parliamentary system. In Oman, older generations have chastised young protestors for continuing to demand political and economic change following a host of concessions by the country's ruler, Sultan Qaboos.
Demographic and economic factors could further widen the call for structural reform in these countries, particularly the "youth bulge" (i.e., the large working-age population) and high unemployment rates. Approximately one-third of the citizenry in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar, and one-quarter in Kuwait and the UAE, are between the ages of 15 and 29. Unemployment among 15-to-24-year-olds hovers between 17 and 24 percent in most of these countries (except the UAE, where the rate is slightly lower). Sustained joblessness on that scale could turn up the heat politically by contributing to the loss of dignity so often cited as a key factor in other Arab uprisings. Although Gulf rulers will no doubt dole out national largesse to muffle discontent, many youths will continue to search for dignified work and independent income, with time on their hands to press for it via activism.
KUWAIT AND BAHRAIN
The most widespread calls for political restructuring in the small Gulf states have been heard in Kuwait and Bahrain, where youth groups have emerged as important actors in the opposition. Late last year, young men and women in Kuwait organized mass demonstrations against a new electoral districting system believed to favor pro-government factions in the parliament. And in Bahrain, the February 14 coalition's tireless organization of protests over the past two years seems to have influenced both Manama and Riyadh's calculations about the need to implement concessions before the unrest intensifies.
The relative strength of the Kuwaiti and Bahraini youth movements derives in part from their experience and organization. In Kuwait, youth groups have built on their successes over the past few years, with activists playing a role in the landmark 2006 electoral law and the 2011 resignation of former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Muhammad al-Sabah due to corruption allegations. Youth leaders have also collaborated with long-serving opposition parliamentarians, further boosting their potential to influence the government.
In Bahrain, February 14 leaders have been linked to well-established opposition figures currently in jail, including several from the Shiite opposition party al-Haq. Some believe that the youth coalition is also receiving funds from wealthy Shiites throughout the Gulf. Indeed, its success in mobilizing and sustaining support on the ground has been impressive, so its leaders may well be benefitting from organizational, tactical, and financial assistance offered by longstanding opposition elements and prominent Gulf Shiites.
Kuwait and Bahrain's youth activists have also proven flexible, shifting in response to current events and specific political goals rather than hewing to general ideological lines like traditional opposition groups. In February 2012, several Kuwaiti youth groups merged to form the Civil Democratic Movement in order to maximize their influence in pressing for a full parliamentary system. Similarly, Bahrain's youth coalition is an umbrella for various neighborhood street demonstrators and cyber activists, many of whom planned the February 14, 2011, "Day of Rage" that first sparked the island's protest movement.
In the absence of change on the ground, the strength and influence of youth campaigns in these countries will likely continue their upward trajectory. In Kuwait, widening fractures in the traditional opposition could give youth movements another opening to assert leadership. And in Bahrain, the more revolutionary youth groups will likely grow stronger if the sluggish National Dialogue process continues to entangle al-Wefaq and other large, well-established Shiite opposition parties indefinitely -- assuming young protestors can abstain from violence. In contrast, an agreement on genuine political restructuring between the government and mainstream opposition would probably weaken the more extreme youth groups.
THE UAE, OMAN, AND QATAR
Youth activism in these states is more limited, partly due to the lack of experience, organization, and political culture needed to support such movements. Even during the height of excitement surrounding the initial Arab uprisings in early 2011, Facebook and Twitter calls for youth demonstrations in the UAE fell flat, as did two Facebook efforts to spur protests in Qatar. Similarly, the young Omanis who organized protests across the country that year proved unable to sustain support in the long run.
Today, some reform-minded youths in the UAE and Oman are attaching themselves to the subtle campaigns of civil society activists and other professionals while propagating their ideas individually online. In the Emirates, authorities have rounded up students and other young people along with members of the well-rooted local Muslim Brotherhood group al-Islah, established human rights activists, and their support networks (e.g., their lawyers). In Oman, youths have joined sit-ins to protest the detention of activists. There especially, a better-organized youth movement could tap into discontent among the labor force to amplify a reform campaign.
Qatari youths have been the quietest among their Gulf counterparts -- in two recent polls, an average of 83 percent of them stated that their country has been "going in the right direction," the highest figure among a dozen Arab countries surveyed. The limited pushes for political change thus far have been made by established professionals such as economics professor Ali Khalifa al-Kuwari, who convenes "Monday Meetings" to discuss reform and development in Qatar. This kind of activity could provide an opening for youths to expand their own political activity, including those who created and "liked" the various "Qatar revolution" Facebook pages.
U.S. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Over the past few months, Gulf rulers have calculated once again that young people expressing various forms of dissent are a political liability that demands a security response, with recent crackdowns in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Oman targeting youths on Twitter and other internet forums. As the stability of the small Gulf states depends on their rulers' dexterity in responding to popular pressures before they bottleneck and explode, Washington should encourage local authorities to directly engage youth leaders in a serious manner. And although the Egyptian experience has taught that today's revolutionaries might not be tomorrow's political leaders, U.S. engagement with amenable youth activists would build important ties with change-makers and help gauge the direction reform might take.
**Lori Plotkin Boghardt is a fellow in Gulf politics at The Washington Institute.

Egypt: To Fail, or Not to Fail? That is the Question

By: Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
‘Let Egypt fail!’ This is the message relayed by some analysts and policymakers in Western capitals. It is countered by another message from other analysts and policymakers: ‘Egypt is too big to fail!’
Advocates of the ‘Let Egypt fail’ approach argue that there is no reason why Western democracies should help prop up a government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. Egyptians have only themselves to blame for the mess because they replaced the despotic Mubarak regime with an obscurantist one. Those who say Egypt is ‘too big to fail’ have little sympathy for President Mohamed Mursi. Their argument is that Western powers need not worry about Egypt. I think both views are misplaced.
Let us start with the second, the claim that Egypt is too big to fail. Although Egypt is nowhere near economic meltdown, red lights are already flashing. Inflation is around 10 percent, which, although half that of the rate in Iran, is already biting into the average Egyptian’s living standard. Since more Egyptians live on the edge of poverty, any increase in inflation has a bigger impact than the same would have in Iran with its larger middle class.
Rising fast, Egyptian unemployment is around the 13 percent mark. At first glance, that does not appear too worrisome when compared with the 23 percent rate of joblessness in Spain, for example. However, the effect of joblessness in Egypt is much harsher than it is in Spain. Egypt lacks the social safety net available in Spain through help from the European Union. Neither do average Egyptians enjoy the level of savings their Spanish counterparts would have built up over the years.
Egypt’s national debt now amounts to over 70 percent of its annual GDP, lower than such countries as the United States, Great Britain and France, not to mention Japan. But here, too, comparisons are misleading. Despite recent falls in their credit ratings, the US, Britain, France and Japan service their debts at historically low interest rates. A dollar borrowed by Egypt costs more than the same dollar borrowed by major economic powers.
Another red light concerns the drop in Egypt’s foreign reserves, from around USD 40 billion in Mubarak’s final year to under USD 13 billion as we approach the end of Mursi’s first year as president.
Since Egypt imports much of its food and almost 70 percent of its energy, the fall in foreign reserves could produce massive shortages. One effect of that is a move towards dollarization, in which businesses and individuals sell their Egyptian pounds to buy foreign currencies. This has resulted in a 20 percent fall in the value of the Egyptian currency.
Again, that may not seem dramatic when compared to the Iranian rial, which has lost almost 70 percent of its value in the past 12 months. But here, too, comparison would be misleading. The Iranian rial could appreciate when oil prices rise. The Egyptian pound, on the other hand, cannot count on such external factors. More importantly, perhaps, Iran has virtually no foreign debts to repay; with its currency shrinking in value, Egypt needs larger sums to pay foreign creditors. Egypt is also facing massive capital outflow, as many companies and individuals take their money out of the country while foreign direct investment has fallen to its lowest in 20 years. The hemorrhage is not fatal, but the fact that capital flight has topped USD 5 billion is not good news.
The sharp drop in the number of foreign tourists and the freezing of investment in businesses manufacturing consumer goods are depriving Egypt of its two main sources of foreign revenue.
To make matters worse, the Mursi administration has demonstrated remarkable nonchalance in the face of the gathering economic storms. It has tried to limit imports, thus squeezing the poorest Egyptians further, while increasing social spending, which widens the budget deficit.
No, Egypt is not too big to fail—but should we endorse the calls to let Egypt fail?
Those who support that call are partly motivated by ideological considerations. They are unhappy that Egyptians have voted a Muslim Brotherhood figure into the presidency. They want Egypt to fail so that they can claim that Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood have failed.
That is a shortsighted, not to say mercenary, view of things. It tells Egyptians that they risk being punished because they did not choose the government that Western powers like.
Rather than watching as Egypt plunges into economic crisis, the major democracies have every interest in helping it through a tough transition. After the Second World War, the United States helped Western European nations build a new market-based economy to sustain democratic structures. That was a win–win strategy: the two shores of the Atlantic emerged as each other’s major economic partners.
A Marshall Plan for Arab Spring nations may sound like a tired cliché, but it is also good long-term strategy. People who take their fate into their own hands often make terrible mistakes and end up paying the price, but they should not be deliberately punished for their rejection of arbitrary rule.
So far, the US has offered an aid package of USD 190 million, while the IMF has put some USD 4 billion on the table. Several oil-rich Arab states have promised a similar package. However, all that would be little more than an attempt at stopping the hemorrhage with bandages. What is needed is a grouping of major powers and regional allies, a ‘Friends of Arab Spring’ club, to offer massive and well-targeted aid in the context of a clear economic and political strategy to Egypt and other Arab countries looking for a different future.

Iran summons Saudi envoy over spy ring claim
Iran protests Saudi allegations of Iranian spy ring in the Sunni kingdom; Saudis accuse Iran of gathering information on key locations; Iran 'Strongly rejects' accusations
Associated Press
Published: 03.28.13, 13:59 / ynetnews
Iran has summoned a Saudi envoy to protest the kingdom's allegation that members of a spy ring arrested in the Arab country last week worked for Iranian intelligence. The semi-official Mehr news agency said in a report late Wednesday that Iran's Foreign Ministry "strongly rejected" the claim during a meeting with the Saudi charge d'affaires in Tehran. The report says Iran is seeking an explanation from the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia has said that material evidence and detainee confessions prove the members of the arrested group had received money from Iran for information on vital locations in the kingdom. Iran has denied such payments.
The mainly Sunni kingdom and the predominantly Shiite Iran are regional rivals. They have a hostile relationship and frequently trade accusations.