God is with us all the time
By: Elias Bejjani*
"Lord, to whom shall we go? You have the words of eternal life". John 6.68/Only God knows what is in store for us, especially when our future seems bleak, or when we become prey for misery, despair, depression, hopelessness, helplessness, anger, conflicts, hostilities, grudges, hatred and fall into the Satan's temptation. At all times in sadness or happiness, bad or good, we definitely should trust that God's word is true and that He is with us in every part of our lives. God never ever abandons those righteous who trust in Him and call for His help. Do you need help with the heavy burdens that you are carrying? Do you need conciliation, support and rest? Be fully aware of the promises made by Jesus when we surrender our lives to him and take on His new life—we will find a refreshing rest for our souls. The Lord offers us a trade. As we take on his yoke, which is easy and light, Jesus lifts our burden by carrying upon himself the burdens of our sins.
"Come to Me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light." Matthew 11:28–30
We have to be sure that God is working out a plan for each and every one of us because we are His beloved children and He is our caring and loving Father. His plan includes a bright hope for our future in all domains and on all levels and at the time. Jeremiah 29:11: "For I know the plans I have for you, declares the LORD, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope".
God wishes us all that is good and wants us to be good so we can be qualified to return back to Him where He has prepared a dimension (dwelling) for every one of us. But He expects us to assume our ethical-moral-spiritual roles in being actually righteous and to apply His virtues and acts of mercy, forgiveness, love, humbleness, honesty, faith and hope in all that we say, do and think.
All what we have to do when in trouble or in need for any thing is to ask Him and He always is responsive, generous, forgiving and attentive: "Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened".
Is your heart broken today?
Is your spirit crushed? 
Are you sad and in deep sorrow? 
Have you lost a beloved person? 
Do you feel that you are abandoned? 
Are you lonely and persecuted? 
Are you in pain? 
Be sure that you are not alone, no not at all. Have faith and hope, open your heart, mind and spirit. Have trust in Almighty God and ask Jesus to shower on you his graces, perseverance and the strength to face courageously and with no fear or hesitation all kinds of hardships. "The LORD is near to the brokenhearted and saves the crushed in spirit". Psalm 34:18
The Lord is very near to you when facing overwhelming troubles. In fact, the Lord is right there, present with you in the sorrow, in the heartache. He is walking right through it with you. And you can lean on him for comfort, because he too knows what it feels like to be crushed and broken.
God expects us to utilize and invest wisely the talents that were granted to each one of us. He wants us to deal with each other as a one family and help those are in need physically, emotionally, spiritually and materialistically. 
We are expected to not only do what is righteous, but also to stand strongly against anything that is not righteous and to take clear and cut stances in evil and Godly matters. We can be neutral, we can be lukewarm, but either hot or cold. "I know your works; you are neither cold nor hot. I wish you were either cold or hot. So, because you are lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I am about to spit you out of my mouth." Rev. 3:15-16
Our hope is to be welcomed in heaven on the Judgment Day and not to be thrown out like the unprofitable servant into the outer darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth. 
We must work hard in investing our Godly talents so on Judgment Day we hear the Lord saying us: "Well done, good and faithful servant. You have been faithful over a few things, I will set you over many things. Enter into the joy of your lord." Matthew 25:23
And most importantly God cautions us not under any given circumstances to assume His role in judging others no matter what their wrongdoings might be: "Do not judge, or you too will be judged. For in the same way you judge others, you will be judged, and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you. Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye? How can you say to your brother, 'Let me take the speck out of your eye,' when all the time there is a plank in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother's eye." Matthew 7:1-5. In conclusion our soul and life are a grant from God and He is the one who decides when to take them back, therefore we are ought to be ready all the time for that moment like the wise virgins who took oil in their vessels with their lamps and went out to meet the bridegroom. "Watch therefore, for you don’t know the day nor the hour in which the Son of Man is coming" Matthew 25:13
 

Suleiman Says Challenging Extension to Shorten Parliament's Term, Push for Adopting New Vote Law
Naharnet /President Michel Suleiman submitted on Saturday an appeal to challenge the parliament's decision to extend its mandate, calling on the Constitutional Council to “legally and neutrally” study this file.
“I wish the Council studies the challenge by adopting an entirely neutral and legal perspective to allow the parliament to consider shortening the extension and to push for adopting a new electoral law,” Suleiman urged in a speech he gave after with submitting the challenge before the Constitutional Council. Explaining how he is challenging the extension after signing the parliament's decision, the president said Article 19 of the constitution does not allow an appeal before signing the decision under consideration. He added: “The article regulating extension says it must be published in the official gazette within 5 days, therefore, I had to take a quick decision.”Suleiman said there have been “a failure” in holding a parliamentary session and a postponement until the last date of its current term. “I did not apply article 59 of the constitution that calls for postponing the parliamentary session and instead signed and challenged the extension to avoid abusing power and paralyzing the parliament,” he clarified.  “I did it as a respect of the parliament's powers. Putting the session off would have denied the parliament the right of convening and contributed to disabling the legislative authority.” Al-Jadeed television noted that the Constitutional Council could approve half of Suleiman's challenge only that obliges the parliament to shorten the extension time-frame.
It also explained that the challenged requires 7 votes to be approved. “The rejection of four members would cancel it,” the TV channel pointed out.
The parliament's decision to postpone the upcoming elections and extend its term 17 months because of deteriorating security conditions related to Syria's turmoil was officially announced and published in the official gazette on Friday. The extension decision comes after rival blocs in the legislature failed to agree on a new elections law. Both pro- and anti-Syrian blocs in parliament agreed on the extension, with one exception being the Free Patriotic Movement of MP Michel Aoun, which has the second largest bloc in parliament. Both Aoun the Suleiman vowed to challenge the extension before the Constitutional Council. The decision, which had been expected, marks the first time that parliament has had to extend its term since the country's own 15-year civil war ended in 1990, and underlines the growing turmoil in the country spilling over from the conflict in its neighbor.

Lebanese Parliament Term Extension Published in Official Gazette
Naharnet/The parliament's decision to postpone the upcoming elections and extend its term 17 months because of deteriorating security conditions related to Syria's turmoil was officially announced and published in the official gazette.Friday's extension decision comes after rival blocs in the legislature failed to agree on a new elections law. Both pro- and anti-Syrian blocs in parliament agreed on the extension, with one exception being the Free Patriotic Movement of MP Michel Aoun, which has the second largest bloc in parliament. Aoun and President Michel Suleiman have said they will challenge the extension, although that is unlikely to affect Friday's decision given the size of the majority. The decision also drew wide western criticism as the European Union said on Friday it regrets that the polls will not be held at the end of the mandate of the Parliament, as scheduled on 16 June 2013.
A statement issued by the EU urged “all the political parties to use the extension to agree on an electoral law, and fix a new date for elections.”Ninety-seven legislators in the 128-seat body voted to extend parliament's term until November 20, 2014, in a session that lasted only 10 minutes. The decision, which had been expected, marks the first time that parliament has had to extend its term since the country's own 15-year civil war ended in 1990, and underlines the growing turmoil in the country spilling over from the conflict in its neighbor.It is widely seen as a blow to Lebanon's tradition of free elections, but it may help lower tensions at a critical time for the fragile and deeply divided country.

Salam Meets Berri's Envoy as He is Set to Kickstart New Efforts to Form Political Govt.
Naharnet/Efforts to form a new government are set to be revived in light of settling the dispute over the extension of parliament's term and the consequent postponement of the parliamentary elections, reported the daily An Nahar Saturday. Informed March 14 political sources told the daily that the new efforts will focus on forming a political cabinet not comprised of figures affiliated with political parties. “The new cabinet will not be a de facto or caretaker one,” they revealed.They predicted that positive outcomes of Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam's renewed efforts will emerge within ten days.In a related development, An Nahar said that Salam had held talks on Friday with Speaker Nabih Berri's aide caretaker Health Minister Ali Hassan Khalil. The daily said that the discussions did not address the cabinet formation process, but extension of parliament's tenure, which took place on Friday despite President Michel Suleiman's opposition.An Nahar continued that Salam will launch new consultations with various political powers to garner their views over the new government. He is set to adhere to article 64 constitution that addresses the framework that needs to be followed in forming a government.This framework does not speak of any “blocking minority” that grants a bloc the power to veto government decisions. The March 8 camp has been demanding that it be granted such an authority in a new cabinet, which Salam repeatedly refused by explaining that a government that includes such a power will become ineffective. The article also does not stipulate that a certain sect has the right to monopolize certain government portfolios. Furthermore, the constitutional article stipulates that the entire parliament does not need to be represented in government, which may hamper its work, said An Nahar. Salam believes that Lebanon is need of a cabinet that can tackle the people's concerns given the critical phase the country and region are passing through, it reported.
The premier-designate's efforts to form a new government came to a halt in recent weeks in light of the dispute over the extension of parliament's mandate and the political powers' failure to reach an agreement over a new parliamentary electoral law. The dispute was settled on Friday however when parliament agreed to extend its tenure for 17 months. Salam has repeatedly said that he is seeking the formation of a cabinet capable of staging the parliamentary elections. The extension of parliament's term has however resulted in the postponement of the elections. Suleiman has rejected the extension and is expected to challenge the decision at the Constitutional Council in favor for a technical extension that will allow the staging of the polls.

Hezbollah holds funeral of militants killed in Syria’s Al-Qusayr
Now Lebanon/Hezbollah held on Saturday the funeral of two of its militants who were killed in battles in the Syrian town of Al-Qusayr, NOW’s correspondent reported.
The funeral of Hezbollah fighter Abbas Abu Hamdan was held in the Zahle neighborhood of Twaity, while the funeral of another fighter from the Al-Hajj Hussein family was held in Baalbek, the correspondent added.
Shiite Hezbollah is a close ally of the Damascus regime, and its fighters have been battling alongside the army in the Al-Qusayr area for weeks, according to activists. A growing number of Hezbollah fighters killed in Syria have been brought back for burial in Lebanon in recent weeks.The group's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has acknowledged that members of his movement are involved in the Syria conflict. The Syrian conflict has so far left more than 94,000 people dead according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights watchdog.

No Injuries as 16 Rockets Fired from Syria Land in Lebanon overnight
Naharnet/A number of rockets fired from the Syrian side of the border landed in Lebanese border regions overnight, reported the National News Agency on Saturday. It said that four rockets landed on the eastern mountain range near al-Shaara region between the towns of Sarein al-Fawqa and Sarein al-Tahta. Only material damage was incurred in the incident. Shells also landed near al-Nasseriya, al-Nabi Sheet, and the outskirts of the Bekaa town of Brital, bringing the total number of rockets fired overnight to 16. Four Syrians were arrested in the region on suspicion of being linked to the shelling. Meanwhile, unknown assailants opened fire at around 2:30 a.m. Saturday at a shrine for Sayyeda Khawla at the southern entrance of the Bekaa city of Baalbek. The shrine and a nearby BMW X5 were damaged in the incident. Border regions with Syria in the northern and eastern Bekaa have come under shelling from the fighting in Syria, mainly due to Hizbullah's involvement in the unrest in the neighboring country. The Free Syrian Army had acknowledged in the past that it had targeted some Lebanese areas in retaliation to Hizbullah's actions.Rockets have frequently landed in the northeastern region of al-Hermel.

UNIFIL, Army on Alert after Israeli Troops Cross Barbed Wire Fence in Wazzani
Naharnet /Tension was high on Saturday along al-Wazzani region in southern Lebanon as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and Lebanese army deployed heavily in the area after Israeli soldiers crossed the barbed wire border fence. Israeli troops crossed the fence, infiltrating 10 meters into an area along al-Wazzani River after expressing reservations over a cleaning process by a Lebanese bulldozer of the riverbed. The Israeli army argued that the Blue Line that separates the border passes in the middle of the river, informing UNIFIL that it rejects such endeavors and demanding the Lebanese authorities to halt it. According to the state-run National News Agency, UNIFIL swiftly contacted the Lebanese army to avert any negative repercussions.

Report: Charbel, Ibrahim Make Significant Progress in Efforts to Release Aazaz Pilgrims
Naharnet /Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel and General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim returned to Lebanon from Turkey Friday night where they discussed the case of the Lebanese pilgrims held in Syria's Aazaz region, reported the daily An Nahar Saturday.Concerned sources told the daily that they achieved “significant progress in this case, which may lead to the pilgrims' release within a week should no new obstacles thwart these efforts.” Media reports that had said that the kidnappers had handed the Lebanese delegation that visited Turkey a new list of detainees held in Syrian jails that they seek to free in exchange for the release of the pilgrims.
The Lebanese delegation, headed by Charbel and Ibrahim, had met at the Turkish-Syrian border with the head of Turkish intelligence, a Turkish mediator, and one of the members of the brigades that kidnapped the pilgrims, Samir al-Amouri. Amouri allegedly handed the delegation a list of 81 names of female prisoners. Ibrahim is set to brief Lebanese officials on the visit to Turkey ahead of heading to Damascus to discuss the way to transfer the prisoners from Syria to Turkey. The General Security chief had frequently traveled to Syria to address the release of the pilgrims. Eleven Lebanese pilgrims were kidnapped in Syria's Aleppo region in May 2012 as they were making their way back by land to Lebanon from pilgrimage in Iran. Two of the captives have since been released, while the rest remain held in Aazaz. The families of the pilgrims have mainly held Turkey responsible for their ongoing abduction. They have held numerous demonstrations near Turkish interests in Lebanon to protest the kidnapping.

Hezbollah's executive council Sheikh Nabil Qaouk: US will not determine Hezbollah’s role in Cabinet
June 01, 2013 /The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Hezbollah reiterated its call for a national unity Cabinet Saturday, saying it will not allow the United States to determine the party’s role in the future government.
“We are moving to a new political stage in which it is necessary to form a political Cabinet and a national unity Cabinet that guarantees effective partnership,” said deputy head of the Hezbollah's executive council Sheikh Nabil Qaouk. Hezbollah officials have called for a national unity government that represents all political parties and they have previously called for holding a veto share of the Cabinet.
Rival parties say the government should be non-political and technocratic and some now question if Hezbollah should be part of the Cabinet at all.
Speaking during a memorial ceremony of a party member in the southern town of Shehabiyeh, Qaouk said that the new Cabinet should be formed by one party, dictations from the U.S. or with interference from Arab countries.
“We will not allow American dictations and Arab hints to determine or restrict the role of Hezbollah in any future government,” said Qaouk.“There is a group in the country that does not want effective partnership and is betting on the Syrian crisis and trying to employ what is happening there to pressure the Prime Minister-designate to form a Cabinet that guarantees this party to get a grip of power and monopolize it,” he said.A Future MP said Saturday he opposed including Hezbollah in the new government, and the U.S. has decried Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.Qaouk added that his party and its allies in the March 8 coalition, the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, have the same stance over the Cabinet formation.On April 6, Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam was tasked with forming a new government, two weeks after caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati stepped down over internal disputes in his Cabinet.Little progress in the government formation process was made as sharp divisions over the form of the new Cabinet surfaced between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps that have become even stronger after Hezbollah's intervention in Syria.Future MP Mohammad Hajjar said in an interview to al-Fajr radio station on Saturday that Hezbollah should be left out of the Cabinet.
“It is necessary to form the new government as soon as possible and Hezbollah should not be part of it,” he said.“What national unity Cabinet are they talking about while there is a party that individually decided to fight alongside a regime that is killing its people?” asked Hajjar, referring to Hezbollah’s military involvement in Syria.
Hezbollah has recently backed the Syrian regime in an offensive against the Homs town of Qusair, which had been held by Syrian rebels for over a year.
The party's military involvement in Syria violence was confirmed in a recent speech by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah who vowed victory for his ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad.
 

The Extension of Parliament in Lebanon, and Banning Rafsanjani in Iran
Walid Choucair/Al Hayat
Political circles close to Hezbollah were whispering this around a year ago, and now it has come to pass: Lebanon’s parliamentary elections will be postponed for 17 months (instead of two years).
It took months of charades and maneuvering, which exhausted the public and naturally all political factions. It also required the stoking of security instability to convince those who were not convinced; this took place via periodic explosions in the city of Tripoli, or similar incidents elsewhere in the country, which provoked counter-reactions. This has all resulted in a hellish circle of events, whose function is to mask the source of the tension.
Since the outset, the following message has been relayed to all those concerned: Hezbollah is not interested in the Lebanese domestic situation; its sole focus is on one thing, Syria, and confronting the attempts to topple the regime there. This is the focus of its efforts and the mindset of its leaders; it is involved to the hilt in the crisis and is assigning no importance to anything else. Hezbollah considers the battle to be one of life or death, which can tolerate no losses or weakness, not to speak of defeat. Didn't the leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, say as much in his speech on Saturday, energizing his supporters and his base and promising them victory once again? The process of exhausting Lebanon’s political circles required waging a campaign against the current parliamentary election law. This was followed by a process of factions outbidding themselves when it came to accepting the famous the Orthodox Gathering proposal, which would see each sect choose its own MPs and further fragment Lebanese society. Hezbollah did not hesitate to support the proposal, despite its dangers, because it raised the level of religious and sectarian polarization in the country. Some Christian groups then abandoned the proposal, after a reshuffling of cards between allies in the March 14 and March 8 camps; this was followed by a “hybrid” electoral law proposal, which once again reshuffled the cards. Some political factions have been heavily involved in the maneuvers to exhaust the public over the election law, without being aware of it – this is especially the case with rival Christian groups, each with its own objectives in mind. However, everyone has reaped the negative consequences of the move; in the end, they reached a fait accompli that required extending Parliament’s term, or in other words suspending political life in Lebanon.
Hezbollah was ready to accept the holding of elections, but on one condition, namely guaranteeing that it and its allies would secure a majority, with no centrist or neutral group able to tip the balance between the two rival camps. Most groups were saying, or acknowledging, that if the elections were held on the basis of the current law, they would produce the same result as now. Hezbollah would be unable to tolerate this, as it waged a battle for its future in Syria. The party was unready to gamble on the chance, however slight, that the voting results would constitute a new push for an alliance between its rivals, grouping the centrists, headed by President Michel Suleiman and MP Walid Jumblatt, along with the current head of the government. Suleiman has begun to ask Nasrallah – as he did two days ago – to pull his fighters out of Syria and bring them to Lebanon, and has said that he does not agree to seeing them fight on Syrian territory. It is a stance that would have enjoyed more support with the legitimacy of parliamentary elections backing it, had a new Parliament taken shape similar to the current one. The so-called kingmakers of the centrist faction would have been more irritating for Hezbollah after an election round such as this. Thus, these kingmakers, and thus the elections, needed to be neutralized.
The level of exhaustion of the political class, amid the maneuvering to arrive at a postponement of the elections, reached the point in which many "drowned” themselves in the searching for the problem in the Lebanese political system and the absence of the state, pointing to the political class’ inability to reach consensus on the election law. This was in order to highlight the crisis of the political system, and the absence of the state. In doing so, they ignored that what was happening merely reflected the regional-international struggle over Syria, which was bringing Lebanon along for the ride, by suspending the implementation of the Lebanese system and preventing the organizing of a formula that all Lebanese could agree on, to guarantee making Lebanon an annex of the Syrian situation. Do Lebanon's problems these days result from defects in the political system or in the external political formula that is blocking the political formula and foundations of this system?
There are those who say that Hezbollah’s anxiety about the possibility, however slight, that elections in Lebanon will cause a change, even if small, in the balance of power, might reflect its heavy involvement in the Syrian crisis. They say this is parallel to the anxiety of the Iranian leadership about the chance, however slight, that a change, even if small, will take place if Ali Akbar Rafsanjani wins the presidential elections in that country next month. Thus, there was a need to ban his candidacy by the elections supervisory body in Tehran, even though he is a long-time pillar of the Iranian revolution. The Iranian leadership will not tolerate the possibility, even if slight, that a different type of policy will emerge in terms of dealing with its momentous battle in Syria.
The Iranian regime and Iranian society have their mechanisms for dealing with developments of this type; likewise, the fact that Hezbollah was forced to paralyze the Lebanese political system to the benefit of the battle it is waging in Syria could be a prolonged affair. This battle will not be settled in the city of Qusair, or in rural Damascus; rather, it is a cat-and-mouse game that will continue for God knows how long.

Mr, Tammam Salam Take the plunge
June 01, 2013/The Daily Star
Now that the elections saga is over, and Parliament’s term has been extended by 17 months, it is essential that a government is formed as soon as possible, and that Tammam Salam forms a Cabinet of his choosing, even if he is unable to get all sides to the discussions table. Thus far, all suggestions, from the prime minister-designate himself and from others, have gone nowhere. Now is the time for some firm decision-making, and the creation of a government which may not make any party jump for joy, but one which will also not provoke any extreme reactions. Compromise must be the name of the game now. A government which no one party is completely enthused by might be the only remaining option. Hezbollah’s possible position within the government is clearly one of the thorniest issues which must be addressed. While the group is so blatantly involved in fighting on the ground in Syria, it cannot expect to be part of the Cabinet. But a political government without the party would simply create further problems. It is vital that Salam now find a neutral middle-ground.
As it is, with all sides sticking to their heavily entrenched positions, this governmental paralysis will continue, and for how long, no one can predict. And all groups bear responsibility for this vacuum, one which has left tens of important government positions unfilled, and a similar number of crucial draft laws festering in drawers in the Grand Serail, the caretaker government unable, even if it were willing, to move them forward.
This governmental vacuum has also been the icing on the cake as far as discouraging tourists to visit Lebanon is concerned. In addition to the rockets, the kidnappings and the war next door, the patent lack of a central authority and the weakness of security structures – symptoms of this absence of a government – have left hotel rooms and mountain residences completely deserted, now, and likely for the rest of the summer.
Unable to appease all diverse factions in his attempt to form a government, the moderate Salam – perhaps unique at this current moment for being able to occupy such a position – must create a new method for forming cabinets out of thin air, or reinvent the system in which portfolios are distributed. The problem has been apparent for some time, and seems unsolvable; his last two predecessors also took four or five months to magic up a Cabinet. This is simply too long, a time period which the Lebanese do not have the patience for right now. And nor should they be expected to, making creativity and vision a must.
All parties and leaders must now make an important decision – whether to prioritize their own interests or those of the country as a whole. For it is all of Lebanon which suffers under this vacuum of power. This may involve making some difficult, painful decisions, as far as their own power is concerned, but it is what the country needs, urgently.

Lebanon's Suni Dar al-Fatwa row sparks lawsuit, rival meetings
June 01, 2013/By Mohammed Zaatari/The Daily Star
SIDON, Lebanon: Sidon’s Mufti Salim Sousan has filed a against the city’s newly appointed Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Nassar and Sheikh Iyad Abu Ardat for storming the Dar al-Fatwa building in Sidon on May 21, sources said Friday. In his lawsuit, which Sousan’s lawyers filed with the Public Prosecution in south Lebanon, Sousan demanded that Nassar and Abu Ardat be referred to a relevant court on charges of seizing the Dar al-Fatwa position and breaking into the mufti’s office without any legal reason and “inciting sectarian sentiment,” the sources said. Earlier last month, Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani, who is locked in a long-simmering dispute with the Future Movement, appointed Nassar to replace Sousan as the head of Sidon’s Dar al-Fatwa. But Sousan, who is close to the Future Movement, has refused to step aside. Many members of the Higher Islamic Council oppose Qabbani’s decision, arguing that Sousan should be kept on until a successor is elected. Elections have been stalled, however, as a result of a conflict between Qabbani and the majority of the Higher Islamic Council over their legality.Meanwhile, Qabbani and his rivals in the council will hold separate meetings of the council Saturday. Qabbani will chair the council meeting at Dar al-Fatwa, while his opponents will meet at an office in the Sanayeh neighborhood.

Qaradawi Lashes Out at Hizbullah, Urges Sunnis to Join Syria War
Naharnet /Influential Muslim cleric Youssef al-Qaradawi has called on Sunni Muslims to join the rebels fighting the Syrian regime, as he lashed out at Lebanon's Hizbullah for sending its men to fight the mostly-Sunni insurgents in Syria.Qaradawi, a controversial figure in the West but who has millions of supporters, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood, also hit out at Iran for backing the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad.
"Every Muslim trained to fight and capable of doing that (must) make himself available" to support the Syrian rebels, the cleric said at a rally in Doha late Friday. "Iran is pushing forward arms and men (to back the Syrian regime), so why do we stand idle?" he said, branding Hizbullah, which means the party of God in Arabic, as the "party of Satan". Hizbullah, a close ally of Iran and the Syrian regime, is openly engaged in the fight against the rebels in Syria. It has also fought for years against Israel, arch rival of Iran and Syria. "The leader of the party of the Satan comes to fight the Sunnis... Now we know what the Iranians want... They want continued massacres to kill Sunnis," Qaradawi said."How could 100 million Shiites (worldwide) defeat 1.7 billion (Sunnis)?" he exclaimed, "only because (Sunni) Muslims are weak". The cleric blamed himself for previously backing Hizbullah and its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who gained popularity after steadfastly leading his group in the fight against Israel in 2006. "I defended the so-called Nasrallah and his party, the party of tyranny... in front of clerics in Saudi Arabia," which is wary of neighboring Shiite Iran and its allies. "It seems that the clerics of Saudi Arabia were more mature than me," Qaradawi said. But the cleric insisted that his call to fight Hizbullah is "not against all Shiites".
Fighters of Hizbullah are engaged in fierce battles against the rebels to capture the Syrian town of Qusayr near the Lebanese borders. The party has already lost dozens of its men in the battle for Qusayr.
Qaradawi hosts a popular show on Al-Jazeera satellite television and has backed the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria.Source/Agence France Presse.

Aoun's highway of broken dreams
Michael Young/Now Lebanon
So parliamentary elections will be postponed, allowing us to enjoy a further year and a half of Lebanon’s legislative confederacy of dunces. But what has provoked interest in the halls of parliament in recent days is Michel Aoun’s displeasure with extending parliament’s mandate, and how this might affect his relations with Hezbollah. Most of the large parliamentary blocs have accepted an extension for different reasons. Hezbollah, the strongest proponent of an election delay, sees no reason for a decisive election before the situation in Syria becomes clearer. Saad Hariri, too, prefers to postpone elections, because under the several probable laws that would govern the electoral process today, he and March 14 would not win a majority. For Walid Jumblatt, any of the laws most likely to be on the table, such as a hybrid law, would undermine his lock on the Chouf and Aley. Better to wait until the broader political context changes. Meanwhile, Jumblatt still holds the balance of power in parliament.
The Lebanese Forces, after the fiasco over the Orthodox proposal, also prefer to hold off on elections in order to rebuild their relationship with Hariri and the Future Movement. Samir Geagea helped torpedo the 1960 law, which is what he sought, and knows no consensus will emerge over a new law anytime soon. Plus, postponement could thwart the aims of Geagea’s main Christian rival, Michel Aoun.
That’s why Aoun is the odd man out. After spending weeks pretending that he wanted the Orthodox proposal and opposed the 1960 law, Aoun must now pay the consequences. The reality is that he always favored the 1960 law, which allows him to benefit from friendly Shiite electorates in Jbeil, Baabda, and Jezzine. But Aoun needed to show he was sensitive to Christian displeasure with the 1960 law, and so he played the game of endorsing the now-dead Orthodox project.
Aoun finds himself in a bind. An extension means that there will be no elections, which would likely have won him a new Christian majority under the 1960 law. This would have put him in a stronger position to take over from President Michel Suleiman next year, when Suleiman’s mandate is scheduled to end. But Aoun now has to worry that an extension of parliament’s term will mean an extension of Suleiman’s term, denying Aoun the opportunity to become president.  Another question (if rather less grand) also preoccupies Aoun, namely who will succeed Jean Qahwaji as army commander. Aoun wants his son-in-law Shamel Roukoz to get the nod, and he opposes efforts by the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, to extend Qahwaji’s term. Some have suggested that Hezbollah gave Aoun guarantees in this regard so as to secure his approval for extending parliament’s term.
But that will not make it any easier for Roukoz to be promoted. No one wants to hand Aoun such influence over the armed forces, and it is doubtful that Suleiman will welcome such an arrangement. Even Hezbollah, regardless of its alliance with Aoun, deep-down may prefer to bring in a commander of its own choosing rather than someone linked to a politician who, given his background, has the latitude to push the army in directions the party would prefer it not to go. It is difficult to see what Aoun really gains from an extension of parliament’s mandate. The general is getting no younger and deferring electoral deadlines forces him to readjust his plans. Aoun has been a stalwart partner of Hezbollah for years, but other than help him gain large parliamentary blocs, the alliance has never permitted him to take advantage of such representation in order to fulfill his overarching ambition: becoming Lebanon’s president.
Aoun, no fool, knows this. Apparently his preferred way of dealing with his frustration is to impose himself as the Christian whom the political class cannot afford to circumvent. That is why the parliamentary elections were so important to him, and why their postponement is so damaging to his political fortunes. Aoun has been uncomfortable with Hezbollah’s participation in the Syrian conflict, though there are no signs that he will break with the party, despite suggestions to that effect from parliamentary sources cited by the Al-Hayat newspaper. What is interesting, however, is to see whether the general will seek to exploit growing Lebanese condemnation of Hezbollah’s actions in Syria to extract concessions from the party. And if so, what might these concessions be? Ultimately, parliament’s extension saga may prove no more than another blip on Lebanon’s volatile political chart. But for Aoun it represents a fresh setback. Whenever he has felt the winds blowing his way, a political deal has intervened to foil his plans. In 2008 it was the Doha accord, which brought Suleiman to office instead of Aoun. Suleiman was set to go next year, giving Aoun a second chance, but now the political system has been frozen until 2015. With a push from Hezbollah, Aoun may be compensated with a lucrative ministry for his son-in-law Gebran Bassil in a new government. But how pathetic that would be for a man who has long sought to become Lebanon’s head of state. Move aside as Aoun races ahead on the highway of broken dreams.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Hizbullah and Rational Choice
David Ben Gurion
“What matters is not what the Gentiles will say, but what the Jews will do.” —
When Hizbullah’s Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah admitted last week that his party was militarily involved in the Syrian conflict, the news seemed to deepen the cognitive dissonance initially caused by Nasrallah’s vocal support for the Syrian regime (in the context of his repudiation of other dictatorial regimes elsewhere in the region). Moral support was one thing; the fact that the party was now sending its Lebanese fighters to die in a guerrilla war against rebel soldiers was something somehow different. I’ll admit that I too was surprised by the scenes of caskets draped with Hizbullah flags being paraded in the streets of Saida and Bint Jbeil. What is Hizbullah thinking? How can they possibly imagine that this is going to work out to their advantage? Surely the party understands that their military support of Assad means, among other things, that: (1) their cherished status in the Arab world is gone, perhaps forever; (2) even if Assad hangs on for a while, the regime’s days are numbered; (3) most importantly, they are opening the gates to hell in Lebanon, as Nadim Koteich points out here. In response to my head-scratching, one of the regular readers of this blog offered the following comment: Homs is the strategically important area, Al Qusayr is important because it is needed to fully control Homs. Al Qusayr is not a ‘distraction’ from the battles for Damascus. The opposition cannot attack Damascus if they lose Al Qusayr.
As for Hezballah, they see this battle as their battle because if the regime falls, they will lose as well. And Al Qusayr is right at the border so they can rely on the network of villagers they have trained over the past year to support them and hold ground. Among Hezballah’s base, involvement in Syria is not seen as terribly as other publics do. In Hermel, I’m sure the residents are pushing for the party to get even more engaged to quell the rocket attacks.
It’s a mis-reading to think Hezballah needs to be ordered by Iran to back the regime. The party will do everything to maintain its own supply lines, and that means making sure the regime survives the war.
Why have I been hesitant to accept the plain idea that Hizbullah “will do everything to maintain its own supply lines”? Since the beginning of this conflict, I’ve assumed that the party’s much heralded sobriety and sensitivity to the dangers of Sunni-Shiite strife would, at the very least, keep it from getting involved so publicly in the Syrian conflict, or at most, lead it to begin preparing quietly for a post-Assad future. It’s clear now that I’ve been mistaken.
If we step back and consider Hizbullah’s military activities over the past eight years, they tell a straightforward story. Whenever the resistance’s strategic position has been threatened, no response has been off the table, no matter the costs in terms of bad PR or sectarian strife. The party made a calculated decision to go forward with the operation that led to the July War in 2006 knowing full well that Israel’s reaction would be severe and would exacerbate the deep political divide in the country. The military takeover of Beirut in May 2008 came when the government threatened to shut down the party’s telecommunications network and to remove a loyal officer in airport security. The assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri and perhaps several others (at least according to the STL narrative) was allegedly carried out by individuals connected with Hizbullah in the wake of international pressure to isolate Syria and disarm the party. Why should we be surprised when Hizbullah acts like a state? Why is it not obvious that the party would routinely use its military assets to protect its interests? In the deliberation process that precedes military action, public opinion and long-term “soft” consequences (like aggravating sectarian tensions) apparently count for very little.
Hizbullah’s case is not unique in this regard; witness the hand-wringing among American or Israeli liberals when their governments embark on a fresh bout of military adventurism. How many op-eds in The New York Times or Ha’aretz have prevented a drone strike that killed a busload of civilians? How often has the specter of international outrage stayed the hands of military strategists?
What matters is not what the world will say; what matters is what we will do. This formula has worked well for Hizbullah, so why change it now? The trouble is, if the party is thinking and acting like a militarily adventurous state, then it is vulnerable to the same mistakes that militarily adventurous states make. Seventy-five fighters lost in al-Qusayr, with an alleged 3,000-4,000 now operating within Syria? Is Hizbullah now in the nation-building game? Haven’t we seen this movie before? America only began to rein in and “refocus” its military strategies when the tolls of those strategies in blood and treasure became unavoidable liabilities for its political leadership. I think that threshold is very far off for Hizbullah, which is a sobering thought to reflect upon.

Syrian Regime, Rebels Bolster Forces for Qusayr Battle
Naharnet /The Syrian army backed by Hizbullah fighters bolstered its positions in the embattled opposition stronghold of Qusayr on Saturday, as rebels prepared for a renewed assault, raising fears for trapped civilians.
The opposition Syrian National Coalition issued a statement saluting rebel fighters in the town, including new battalions that have arrived in recent days. "There are ongoing clashes in northern Qusayr, and the opposition fighters are fighting with everything they've got," Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights watchdog, told Agence France Presse. "Regime forces are reinforcing the sites that they have north of the city, including Dabaa airport and Jawadiya," he added. The group said at least 15 tanks were massed at government-held points north of Qusayr, which is considered a key strategic prize by both the regime and the rebels.
It sits on the route between the capital Damascus and the coast, and lies near the Lebanese border, providing a key rebel conduit for weapons and fighters. The Syrian opposition said Friday that rebel reinforcements had reached the area. The fight for the town, which began nearly two weeks ago, has raised fears about the safety of thousands of civilians still trapped inside. Abdel Rahman, whose watchdog relies of a network of activists, doctors and lawyers on the ground, said around 1,000 wounded people were trapped inside the town. "The medical situation is very bad," he said. The Syrian National Coalition, the key opposition umbrella group, praised the rebel forces in the town. "The heroes of the Free Syrian Army prove every day that they are worthy of the responsibility that the people have entrusted them with," the group said. "The people will continue their struggle to liberate their land, whatever it takes, and will force Hizbullah to withdraw its forces from all of Syria," it added. The party, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime, has dispatched fighters to help put down the uprising that began more than two years ago with peaceful protests against President Bashar Assad. Some members of Lebanon's Sunni community have also crossed into neighboring Syria to fight alongside the Sunni-led rebels forces, encouraged by local clerics. Despite an official policy of neutrality on the Syrian conflict, Lebanon has found itself increasingly embroiled in its neighbor’s civil war. The continued fighting has raised concerns about the prospects for a peace conference expected to convene in Geneva this month to seek a political solution to the conflict. The Coalition reiterated on Saturday that "the immediate halt of military operations by regime forces, Hizbullah and Iran are the primary conditions for participation in the conference." At least 114 people were killed throughout violence in Syria on Friday, including 45 rebels, 40 civilians and 29 government troops, the Observatory said.
SourceAgence France Presse.

Top Muslim cleric urges Sunnis to join Syria war
Now Lebanon/Influential Muslim cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi has called on Sunni Muslims to join the rebels fighting the Syrian regime, as he lashed out at Shiite group Hezbollah for sending its men to fight the mostly-Sunni insurgents in Syria. Qaradawi, a controversial figure in the West but who has millions of supporters, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood, also hit out at Iran for backing the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
"Every Muslim trained to fight and capable of doing that [must] make himself available" to support the Syrian rebels, the cleric said at a rally in Doha late Friday.
"Iran is pushing forward arms and men [to back the Syrian regime], so why do we stand idle?" he said, branding Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which means the party of God in Arabic, as the "party of Satan".
Hezbollah, a close ally of Iran and the Syrian regime, is openly engaged in the fight against the rebels in Syria. It has also fought for years against Israel, arch rival of Iran and Syria.
"The leader of the party of the Satan comes to fight the Sunnis... Now we know what the Iranians want... They want continued massacres to kill Sunnis," Qaradawi said.
"How could 100 million Shiites [worldwide] defeat 1.7 billion [Sunnis]?" he exclaimed, "only because [Sunni] Muslims are weak".The cleric blamed himself for previously backing Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah who gained popularity after steadfastly leading his group in the fight against Israel in 2006. "I defended the so-called Nasrallah and his party, the party of tyranny... in front of clerics in Saudi Arabia," which is wary of neighboring Shiite Iran and its allies. "It seems that the clerics of Saudi Arabia were more mature than me," Qaradawi said. But the cleric insisted that his call to fight Hezbollah is "not against all Shiites". Fighters of Hezbollah are engaged in fierce battles against the rebels to capture the Syrian town of Al-Qusayr near the Lebanese borders. The militant group has already lost dozens of its men in the battle for Al-Qusayr. Qaradawi hosts a popular show on Al-Jazeera satellite television and has backed the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria.
 

The Arabs, a people or geography?
By: Ghassan Al Imam/Asharq Alawsat
Hezbollah’s government has invented the principle of “non-interference,” but it failed to apply this on the ground. Today, the party is involved in a “do or die” battle in Syria, a neighbor to its state within a state, which views Lebanon as an outlying province. Najib Mikati, prime minister of the caretaker government of Lebanon, adheres to this non-interference principle, which goes well with his preferred approach.
Although the previous Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese government has resigned and been replaced by a caretaker one, it has continued to follow the same approach, ordering Lebanon’s envoy to the Arab League to abide by this avoidance policy.Practically speaking, Lebanon’s out-going government is the third Arab government, after those of Iraq and Algeria, to cheer for Hezbollah and Iran in Al-Qusayr. Maliki and Bouteflika had advised Lakhdar Brahimi, who is still the Arab League and international community’s mufti, that keeping one’s distance from the Assad regime is not permissible in times of Arab conflict.
I’m not great at geography and so I did not realize tha there was an Al-Qusayr in Homs, far away from the Al-Qusayr of Damascus! Being an old Syrian who left the country after Bashar’s family “invaded”, I had often heard the old Damascene saying that ‘so-and-so was taken to Al-Qusayr,’ in reference to the Al-Asforiya mental hospital there. It is therefore not surprising that what is happening in Al-Qusayr today is completely mad!
Only now have I come to realize why Hezbollah’s fatalities have increased in this crazy war: Hassan Nasrallah is not allowing his troops a period of confinement in the Asforiya mental hospital to allow them to come to their senses! Henry Kissinger helped provoke America’s crazy jihadists, in Asia as well as in Latin America. He also gave President Reagan some crazy advice about the Iran–Iraq War, which Reagan happily followed. Nearly one million Iraqis and Iranians were killed during the Saddam–Khomeini war. If the scale tilted against Saddam, the US would provide him with satellite images showing Khomeini’s troops’ positions. Similarly, if Khomeini staggered, Russia and the US would provide him with more arms. As a result, the Iraqi–Iranian equivalent to the “Al-Qusayr” war lasted nine years.
Are the Arabs a people or just a geographic fluke? It is a difficult question that agonizes one’s mind and heart, from the old war of Dahes wal Ghabra’a (a pre-Islamic Arab war) to the Sunni and Shi’ite jihadists in Al-Qusayr today. I think I am realistic when I state that in the past, Arabs had ambitions of being one people in one nation. At a very early stage, their religion forced them to be generous and noble in terms of human rights and treating others who converted to their religion as equals. However today, I feel a great pain in my heart when I hear or read books by prominent writers and intellectuals talking about “Arab nations.” When I write, I speak of “Arab communities.” In my assessment, what unifies the Arabs is much greater and more important than sovereign entities, which tore apart the Arabs in the formation of independent states.
These societies are proving, impulsively, that they are one nation—not several states—for they enjoy the components of one nation: unity of culture, mood, sentiment, common interests, sufferings, hopes and ambitions. Before all that, the remains of a wonderful language that is striving to survive decay and not become a mere collection of local accents or spoken dialects.
Arabs are a history of a nation, rather than a nation with a history. The difference is distinct: the failure of the Arabs in forming a nation with one political entity has caused them, at this time of retreat and defeat, to become a mere geopolitical entity. Examples are many: Arab newspapers, televisions and radio are all speaking like foreign news agencies when speaking of “North Africa” rather than the Maghreb, “East Jordan” rather than the Arab Gulf, and “the Middle East cause” rather than the Palestinian Cause.I do not want to elaborate further for fear of being labelled a “nationalist” who speaks a wooden language, and who prefers to abstain from the status quo. Pan-Arabism today has become a real shame and a source of mockery. Even the backyards of Syria’s revolution, do not dare declare Syria’s pan-Arabism, in order not to provoke its ethnic minorities or agitate major capitals that continue to trifle with it. I will always say: There is no need for a Syria without affiliation or identity; Syria would have no role without Arabism, and Syria will have no Arabism without democracy.


Turkish Police Pull Out of Istanbul Square Occupied by Protesters
Naharnet/ Turkish police on Saturday began pulling out of Istanbul's iconic Taksim Square, the scene of a second day of violent clashes between protesters and police over a controversial development project. Thousands of demonstrators flooded the site as police lifted the barricades around Taksim Excursion Park and began withdrawing from the square, an Agence France Presse reporter saw. Turkish President Abdullah Gul called earlier for "common sense" to prevail as violent protests against the redevelopment of Istanbul's Taksim square reached a "worrisome level".
"We all need to be mature in order for the protests... which have reached a worrisome level, to calm down," Gul said in a statement released by his office, calling on the police to "act in proportion". Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan remained defiant in the face of the unrest, which has exposed growing discontent with what critics say is his government's increasingly conservative and authoritarian agenda. He said there had been cases of "extreme" police action against demonstrators.
"It is true that there have been some mistakes, extremism in police response," Erdogan said after a second day of violent protests left dozens injured.
The interior ministry said in a statement that legal action would be taken against police officers acting "disproportionately."
On Saturday police fired tear gas at protesters gathering in Taksim Square, the epicenter of the demonstrations that have left dozens of people injured and have earned Turkey a rare rebuke from its ally Washington.
Protesters in turn hurled rocks and bottles at the police.
"We have become one fist," 33-year-old Ataman Bet, said as he swept the shattered glass and burnt plastic in front of his small coffee shop near Taksim.
"This has been everybody -- leftist, rightist, even supporters of Erdogan. People are angry, I am so proud of them" he said, calling the damages to his shop a "necessary sacrifice."
Erdogan remained defiant in the face of the demonstrations, among the largest against his government since it assumed power in 2002. "I call on the protesters to stop their demonstrations immediately," he said. "Police were there yesterday, they'll be on duty today and also tomorrow because Taksim Square cannot be an area where extremists are running wild."
He also vowed to go through with the plans that sparked the unrest, to raze a park near Taksim and in its place rebuild an Ottoman-era military barracks to be used as a shopping mall.
"We will rebuild the barracks," Erdogan said, though he added it was not clear whether the new site would then function as a shopping mall.
Thousands of people have poured out into the streets in support of the demonstrators in other Turkish cities, including in the capital Ankara, the western cities of Izmir and Mugla and Antalya in the south.
On Saturday, police blocked a group of demonstrators from marching to parliament and the prime minister's office in Ankara. Local media reported that the Istanbul police were running short of tear gas supplies, with walkie-talkie announcements warning the units to use the gas "economically."
The unrest erupted into anti-government demonstrations after police on Friday moved into Taksim to break up a protest against the razing of a nearby park, the last patch of greenery in the highly commercialized area, with plans to build a shopping mall.
Clashes raged during the night, as thousands of people marched through the city, some banging pots and pans as residents shouted support from the windows.
Others held up cans of beer in defiance of a recent law, supported by the Islamist-rooted ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which prohibits the sale of alcohol during the nighttime hours and was seen by critics as the latest sign of creeping conservatism.
"They want to turn this country into an Islamist state, they want to impose their vision all the while pretending to respect democracy," said one woman protestor in Istanbul, declining to give her name.
The park's razing is part of a wider, controversial construction project that aims to turn the area around Taksim -- a traditional gathering point for protests and a popular tourist destination -- into a pedestrian zone.
Authorities said that a dozen people were being treated in hospitals, but Amnesty International said more than 100 protesters were reportedly injured in clashes.
More than 60 people have been detained as a result of the unrest, according to regional authorities.
In Washington, the State Department said it was concerned about the number of people injured as a result of the protests.
"We believe that Turkey's long-term stability, security and prosperity is best guaranteed by upholding the fundamental freedoms of expression, assembly and association, which is what it seems these individuals were doing," U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said on Friday.
Erdogan's populist government, in power for over a decade, is regularly accused of trying to make the predominantly Muslim but staunchly secular country more conservative.
Turkey at present has more journalists in jail than any other country in the world, with 61 behind bars because of their journalism as of August 1, according to watchdogs. Dozens of lawyers and lawmakers are also in detention, most of them accused of plotting against the government.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a leader of the main opposition the Republican People's Party (CHP) said: "We want freedoms and democracy in our country."
SourceAgence France Presse.WorldPoliticsTurkeyRecep Tayyip Erdogan.

Hezbollah’s Involvement in Syria and the US Response
Raghida Dergham/Al Hayat
Friday 31 May 2013
A senior Russian official has summed up Moscow’s view of what is taking place in Syria and around by saying, “Things are as good as it gets.” Meanwhile, a US official summed up President Barack Obama’s position on the developments in Syria, following a lengthy meeting with the latter, by saying, “He is at a loss.”
The conclusions about the US and Russian positions, respectively, are unfortunate, and call for denouncing the Russian triumphalism over Moscow’s despicable achievements in Syria, but also the US relief over the complete American retreat from Syria, in what may be utter disregard for humanitarian considerations.
Today, Syria has entered a new tunnel of pitch black darkness, with Russian-American help. US Secretary of State John Kerry embraces his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in a diplomatic tango, dancing to the tune of the death throes coming from Syria.
The regional players are fully involved in Syria, meanwhile, and have become the sponsors of the many wars being fought for the roles that will crush generations to come in Syria, and throw them into a vicious cycle of destruction.
Hezbollah has publically acknowledged its involvement in the Syrian war, full with men and materiel, while the Iranian leadership held a conference for the friends of Syria, with the main theme being ensuring Iran’s role in shaping the fate of Syria.
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that are concerned with the Syrian issue have turned their involvement into a “personal matter” as usual with these countries, and relied on reactive tactics rather than a comprehensive strategy. In the meantime, terror has spread in Syria’s neighboring countries, particularly Lebanon and Jordan, over the possibility of their infrastructures imploding as a result of the influx of Syrian refugees.
All this happens while the Syrian regime continues to delude itself that it is about to achieve final victory, in fulfillment of its pledge that either it emerges triumphant in Syria, or the whole country shall collapse.
Once again, the race towards arming the warring sides is going hand in hand with the scramble for the diplomatic table and the promised political solutions for Syria. But one thing that has contributed dramatically to pushing these two tracks simultaneously forward – the military and diplomatic tracks – is the overt entry of Hezbollah as a party to the armed conflict, on the side of the regime in Damascus. To be sure, this has tipped the balance of military power in favor of the Mumanaa axis – the pro-resistance camp – which brings together Iran, Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, as well as Russia and China.
Sources familiar with decision-making circles in the United States have reported that the most prominent change to take place in the US position can be best summed up by the expression, “We now know who our men are” in Syria.
This means that the US administration – at least for the time being – has backtracked on its full disdain for supplying direct and indirect military aid to the Syrian opposition. It also means that the distinction has been made between the moderate opposition and the extremist forces in the Syrian opposition, which the U.S. is loath to backing by mistake, such as al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda, and other terror groups.
Knowing who “our men” are means that the US intelligence found factions in the Syrian opposition that can be trustworthy to Washington, and that the latter is now ready to start arming those. It also means that the US president, who is “at a loss,” has looked right and left and found that his failure to engage in Syria means that he is providing a gift to Iran, just as his predecessor, George W. Bush, had done in Iraq. It means that Barack Obama has reconsidered a little the meaning of allowing a victory for Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, and the implications of this for the region, and so he adjusted his stance.
It also means that Obama was advised to think about not just appeasing Russia in Syria, but also to think carefully about the repercussions of Sunni wrath if Syria – after Iraq – were to be handed over to the Shiite leadership now represented by Iran, and what this may result in, in terms of retaliation by extremist Sunni jihadists following the handing over of Syria - after Iraq - to the Shiite leadership in Iran, and the consequent reprisals from radical jihadists in the form of terrorist attacks on US soil or against US interests worldwide.
Former presidential candidate Sen. John McCain spoke openly at the World Economic Forum at the Dead Sea last week, about the need to strengthen the military role of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Syria. He spoke about every option, with the exception of direct military presence by American soldiers in the Syrian war, including a no-fly zone. More importantly, McCain slipped into Syria and met with rebel military leaders, with the knowledge of the White House, and these leaders most likely include those the US administration identified as “our men.”
The shift in the US position may be tactical and strategic. Clearly, it did not come from a vacuum. Perhaps the direct military role of Iran through Hezbollah has helped push the US to reconsider its disdain for involvement. Certainly, Russia felt that this direct military role for Iran and Hezbollah is not advantageous to what it recently set as a priority, namely, the international conference – as it dubs it, and not Geneva II as it is commonly known.
Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov, in an in-depth interview with Al-Hayat during the World Economic Forum at the Dead Sea, explained Moscow’s dissatisfaction with the Iranian military involvement through Hezbollah. He said that intervention by Hezbollah “or any state or party is nonconductive to the political process,” adding that any “foreign intervention in the Syrian crisis will only inflame it further.”
Russia denies that its role in Syria falls within the same category. The weapons Russia gives to the regime, according to Gatilov, “are purely defensive and cannot be used in a civil war, such as anti-aircraft systems.” Their goal, as he suggested, is to respond to any Israeli assault. However, Gatilov categorically opposed opening the Golan front to the resistance, as Hezbollah wants. Implicit in Gatilov’s answers was that one of the goals of these systems is to defend against military operations by NATO, if these were ever to take place.
Moscow treads carefully between the military and diplomatic tracks, and wants to maintain a special relationship with Washington where Russian President Vladimir Putin can get what he wants pursuant to a grand bargain, or to ensure that the balance of military power continues to favor his allies in the Mumanaa axis.
At this fork in the road, Russian diplomacy is focused on developing the relationship with the US administration thanks to the 'chemistry' between Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry. Indeed, the relationship with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had deteriorated in the wake of Lavrov’s U-turn over what has been agreed to at the Geneva I conference, that is, a transitional political process in Syria that would gradually replace President Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
Today, the two men meet each other repeatedly with broad smiles and embraces. Lavrov, a veteran of Syrian affairs, finds Kerry a novice with a background of admiration for Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma. He finds in him a good opportunity to prepare a summit that two weeks from now will bring together Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin, as two equal leaders of two ‘superpowers’ in Syria, with no place for unipolar leadership.
Geneva II is a staging ground that Moscow prefers to call an international conference, because it wants to discuss a grand bargain through Syria. In Russia’s view, this necessarily requires Iran to be at the table, and to be an essential part of any accords. Gatilov was explicit in saying that Iran has an important role in Syria, and that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are wrong to object to Iranian participation in the conference on Syria’s future. He even openly said that there is no reason why Israel cannot be at the conference on Syria as well.
Logically speaking, if an international conference on Syria was indeed convened, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council must take part, particularly since two of these states – Russia and China – have joined the Mumanaa axis that backs the regime in Damascus. Also logically, the countries playing a direct role in the Syrian war must also take part, whether they back the regime like Iran, or the opposition like Saudi and Qatar. Even Israel has a role in its capacity as a direct neighbor of Syria, and Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon – both the official state and Hezbollah, which is fighting in Syria. This is as far as logic is concerned.
But politically and realistically speaking, Moscow realizes that it is impossible to bring together Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia around one table. For this reason, it is focusing on Iran with a view to legitimize its role in Syria – something that the GCC countries oppose.
The attitudes of many GCC countries are mired by egregious personal calculations over the conflict in Syria, as though this war is one of personal revenge for fulfilling ego-driven pledges.
Toppling the regime in Damascus is now a declared goal of the Gulf countries, which have chosen to put that goal high on their agendas. However, they do not have strategies that would be reassuring when it comes to the day after the regime falls. In reality, there aren’t any strategies, but only a series of tactics in the war of attrition that has turned Syria into another Afghanistan, and opened its doors wide open to sectarian warfare.
Even aid to neighboring countries to accommodate refugees is scarce and follows the same personal calculations. Instead, the GCC must convene an emergency meeting to get a good sense of what it would mean if the conflict were to spread to Iraq, Jordan, or Lebanon. Pre-emptive measures are crucial, and include for the GCC to share the burden of the refugees instead of ignoring the issue by ‘fleeing forward.’
For instance, Jordan is terrified at the prospect of extremist elements infiltrating the refugees, to destabilize the country and its government. This would serve the purpose of taking vengeance against Jordan and handing over the country to Israel, which has always stated and proven that it wants no solution to the Palestinian question, except turning Jordan into the alternative homeland for the Palestinians.
For its part, Lebanon faces existential threats because of its denial of the crisis that is the influx of refugees, for political and sectarian reasons, at a time when this same crisis threatens to collapse its entire infrastructure.
Lebanon’s obsession with the parliamentary elections and the formation of a new government has distracted the whole country away from the danger of the collapse of its infrastructure. Yet after all the fuss, the goal that was hidden in the minds of the country’s powerful actors emerged. As it turns, they wanted all along to prevent holding the elections on time, and to disallow the formation of a government different from that of outgoing premier Najib Mikati, where Hezbollah had a fundamental role.
Hezbollah and its allies in March 8 thus succeeded in postponing the Lebanese elections until after the Syrian elections scheduled for 2014, while keeping a government consisting of elements that have their approval.
Some believe that this buys for Lebanon the stability it is most in need of. In other words, appeasing Hezbollah’s camp with the latter’s involvement in the Syrian war and quagmire, may spare Lebanon a military-security surprise that can destroy it.
Others fear that the revenge against Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian war might take place on its home turf, in order to pull it away from continuing to alter the military equation in Syria.
No one can guarantee this or that scenario, especially when many different factions with different agendas are fighting in Syria, including many engaged in mutual exhaustion in sectarian battles.