LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 29/2013

Bible Quotation for today/Jesus the Real Vine
John 15 /01-17: " “I am the real vine, and my Father is the gardener.  He breaks off every branch in me that does not bear fruit, and he prunes every branch that does bear fruit, so that it will be clean and bear more fruit. You have been made clean already by the teaching I have given you.  Remain united to me, and I will remain united to you. A branch cannot bear fruit by itself; it can do so only if it remains in the vine. In the same way you cannot bear fruit unless you remain in me.  “I am the vine, and you are the branches. Those who remain in me, and I in them, will bear much fruit; for you can do nothing without me.  Those who do not remain in me are thrown out like a branch and dry up; such branches are gathered up and thrown into the fire, where they are burned.  If you remain in me and my words remain in you, then you will ask for anything you wish, and you shall have it.  My Father's glory is shown by your bearing much fruit; and in this way you become my disciples.  I love you just as the Father loves me; remain in my love.  If you obey my commands, you will remain in my love, just as I have obeyed my Father's commands and remain in his love.  “I have told you this so that my joy may be in you and that your joy may be complete.  My commandment is this: love one another, just as I love you. The greatest love you can have for your friends is to give your life for them.  And you are my friends if you do what I command you.  I do not call you servants any longer, because servants do not know what their master is doing. Instead, I call you friends, because I have told you everything I heard from my Father.  You did not choose me; I chose you and appointed you to go and bear much fruit, the kind of fruit that endures. And so the Father will give you whatever you ask of him in my name.  This, then, is what I command you: love one another.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
 The Role of Israel in Syria/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat/January 29/13
 The Brotherhood’s Mistake/By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat/January 29/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 29/13

 Iran arrests 11 reporters over 'foreign contacts'
World powers seek Iran atom talks in February
 Iran cracks down on media before election
Obama congratulates Netanyahu on elections win


 Crisis in Egypt Continues
 Clashes in Egypt despite emergency decree
Egypt’s MB Pressuring Hamas Chief to Continue
 US reluctant to step in vs. Syrian chemical threat, urges neighbors to cope
 Russia says Assad's prospects fading
Canada Offers Condolences Following Nightclub Fire in Brazil
 Israel Deploys Air Defense over Fears Syrian Chemical Weapons Could Fall into Hizbullah's Hands
 Lebanon mufti blasts civil marriage as a "germ"
Sleiman, Siniora meet over electoral law impasse
STL registrar to visit Lebanon
Death penalty sought for Islamist 'prince' over jail murder
Jumblatt in France: Lebanon should be spared from Syria crisis
Jumblat Warns Syria's Druze against Joining 'Regime's So-Called Popular Army'
 Abdallah decision delayed, protest outside French mission
Al-Qaida-linked group claims deadly Syria blast
 No elections based on 1960 law: Berri
 Lebanon: Intense Consultations Ahead of Wednesday's Meeting on Electoral Law
 Future to boycott next meeting on vote law
 Israeli decision reopens fierce Blue Line debate
 Infrastructure in Lebanon tops items on Cabinet’s agenda
 Hollande: 'We Are Winning' War in Mali 

STL registrar to visit Lebanon
January 28, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Special Tribunal for Lebanon Registrar Herman von Hebel will visit Beirut this week to meet Lebanese and foreign officials, the court said Monday.
During his stay, the registrar will meet with Prime Minister Najib Mikati and other Lebanese officials as well as “various representatives of the diplomatic community,” according to the tribunal.
He added that Hebel will also meet STL staff in Beirut.
The registrar is responsible for all aspects of the U.N.-backed court’s administration including the budget, fundraising, relations with states and court management.
His responsibilities also include oversight of the victim participation unit, witness protection and detention facilities.
Von Hebel’s visit comes after the STL said it could prosecute Al-Akhbar, a local newspaper, for publishing what it said where the names and photos of witnesses whose identity was concealed by the court.
The trial of the four Hezbollah men accused of involvement in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is set to start on March 25 of this year. The defense team, however, has requested a delay to the scheduled date allowing them more time, given what the lawyers said was the prosecution’s failure to disclose all relevant documents.
The attorneys, who were appointed last February to represent Salim Ayyash, Mustafa Badreddine, Hussein Oneissi and Assad Sabra, cited in a statement Saturday the “continuing non-cooperation of the relevant Lebanese authorities ... and the absence of the accused.”
Hezbollah has repeatedly denied involvement in the case with the party’s secretary general Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah vowing never to hand over the suspects.
The proceeding will be held in absentia as the men remain at large. The defense lawyers also said they could not set an alternative trial date until the prosecution hand over the remaining evidence.
Pretrial Judge Daniel Fransen will hold a public hearing Wednesday to assess the readiness of both sides.

Sleiman, Siniora meet over electoral law impasse
January 28, 201/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman met Monday with the head of the Future Parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Siniora over the electoral law impasse.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said lawmakers could approve a new electoral if Speaker Nabih Berri’s efforts produce tangible results.
According to Sleiman's office, the two discussed electoral proposals and "stressed the importance of reaching a modern electoral law that allows for political diversity and reflects the spirit of the constitution."
The meeting at Baabda Palace comes after Siniora said Sunday Future lawmakers would not attend a meeting by the joint parliamentary committees called for by the speaker to discuss the adoption of a new electoral law.
The decision is in line with the Future Movement’s boycott of the government. Ministers of Mikati’s Cabinet will attend the session.
Speaking to reporters at his Sidon residence, Siniora said the party would this week unveil a comprehensive electoral proposal designed to address the concerns of Christians after rival lawmakers failed to agree on a unified system vote.
Although the March 14 coalition has unanimously made the decision to boycott the Cabinet, Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb said they would attend the committee meeting.
A subcommittee meeting comprised of the country's main political groups failed to reach a unified stance on a single proposal as each party remained adamant on its stance with regards to the proposals on hand.
Future Movement along with Sleiman, Mikati and some opposition Christian figures have voiced opposition to the controversial electoral proposal by the Orthodox Gathering which has received the assent of majority of Christian parties, backed by Hezbollah.
MP Walid Jumblatt has also rejected the law, which has each sect elect its own MPS and is based on proportional representation.
Speaking to members of Lebanon’s diplomatic corps at the Grand Serail, Mikati said: “If things go the way they are now with regards to parliamentary discussion and efforts by Speaker Nabih Berri are fruitful then a new law for the parliamentary elections could be reached.”
He added that lawmakers agree on a basic principle in these discussions – a rejection of the 1960 law used in the 2009 polls.
He reiterated that elections scheduled in June will be held on time and that no party seeks to delay the polls.
Berri has proposed a hybrid law combining both proportionality with a winner-takes-all system in a bid to find common ground among the rival groups.
Kataeb MP Sami Gemayel reiterated that the party will attend the joint committee meeting scheduled for Jan. 30, saying time is running out.
“We actively participated in the subcommittee meetings and it is only normal that we return to the joint committee after finalizing work in the subcommittee,” Gemayel said during a news conference.
“There is a law with small districts, a hybrid one, and the Orthodox Gathering proposal and whichever one receives a majority consensus will be put up for a vote on in the general committee of Parliament,” he added.
Gemayel, who has repeatedly warned that lawmakers are in a race against time, said parties only have one month left to adopt a new law.
“Elections are in four months and we can't waste time anymore,” he added.
Earlier Monday, MPs with the March 8 coalition held a meeting at Parliament to discuss the electoral law with Change and Reform bloc MP Ibrahim Kanaan, urging politicians of all parties to attend Wednesday’s session.
"The meeting today was aimed at coordinating stances between the parliamentary blocs that represent the majority particularly the Change and Reform, Development and Liberation, Loyalty to the Resistance, Tashnaq and Marada Movement,” Kanaan said. "We call and hope of our colleagues in all blocs to attend the joint committees meeting because the issue is strategic and national and not a partisan one. It doesn't concern either March 8 or 14,” he added.

Death penalty sought for Islamist 'prince' over jail murder
 January 28, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Military Prosecutor Judge Saqr Saqr requested the death penalty Monday for a Lebanese prisoner known as “the prince of Islamists” over the killing of a fellow inmate earlier this month, judicial sources told The Daily Star. Saqr's request comes in accordance with Article 549 of the Penal Code. A police investigation revealed that Mohammad Youssef, also known as Abu Walid, gave orders to eight prisoners of the militant group Fatah al-Islam to kill Palestinian Ghassan Qindaqli. Qindaqli, who was found hanging in his cell at the prison’s Bloc B on Jan. 18, was serving a life sentence on multiple counts of murder and other drug-related offences in Roumieh Prison, Lebanon's largest. Last week, Saqr issued an indictment against eight Islamists for the premeditated murder of Qindaqli. He also charged three Gendarmerie prison guards with “negligence of duty.”
The men turned themselves in on condition that interrogations take place inside the prisoners’ cells, security sources have said. Police negotiated with the inmates last week via Muslim sheikhs in order to prevent bloodshed after the Army and police were ready to storm Bloc B where Fatah al-Islam detainees are. Islamist inmates who have gone on hunger strike and carried out several riots throughout the years have imposed somewhat of a de facto rule in Bloc B. Dozens of Islamists were detained for fighting against the Army in the 2007 battle in the Palestinian Camp of Nahr al-Bared, north of the country

Lebanon mufti blasts civil marriage as a "germ"
January 28, 2013 /By Van Meguerditchian The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani Monday took a firm stand against the legalization of civil marriage in Lebanon, saying any Muslim official who supported it would not be considered a Muslim.
“Every Muslim official, whether a deputy or a minister, who supports the legalization of civil marriage, even if it is optional, is an apostate and outside the Islamic religion,” Qabbani said in a religious edict, or fatwa.
“[Such officials] would not be washed, would not be wrapped in a [burial] shroud, would not have prayers for their soul in line with Islamic rules, and would not be buried in a Muslim cemetery,” Qabbani added.
Qabbani’s fatwa came less than two weeks after President Michel Sleiman came out in support of granting Lebanese the right to an optional civil marriage. Sleiman proclaimed his support a week after a couple who had deleted mention of their religious identity from their civil registration document attempted to make their civil wedding official. The mufti criticized the attempts of some officials and civil society groups to pass a law legalizing civil marriage, saying that such efforts target the personal status laws of Muslims. “All Muslim men and women and all Muslim ulema (scholars) are duty-bound to prevent such attempts to legalize civil marriage,” Qabbani said.
“In the face of an attempt to plant this germ of civil marriage… the ulema will not hesitate to do their job and defeat such attempts in Lebanon,” he added.

Obama congratulates Netanyahu on elections win
Yitzhak Benhorin Published: 01.28.13, 20:24 / Ynetnews
In telephone call, US president indicates he looks forward to working with next Israeli government; reiterates commitment to 'enduring bonds' between US, Israel . WASHINGTON – US President Barack Obama called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Monday evening and congratulated him on his victory in last week's elections, the White House said.
The White House said that during the conversation, which took place six days after the Likud-Beiteinu list won 31 Knesset seats in the elections, Obama pledged to work closely with Israel's next government on peace and security in the Middle East. "The president indicated that the United States looks forward to working with the next government," the White House said in a statement describing the telephone call between the two leaders.
"He also reiterated his commitment to the deep and enduring bonds between the United States and Israel, and pledged to work closely with Israel on our shared agenda for peace and security in the Middle East," the statement said. The hawkish Netanyahu emerged weakened by the election but is still poised to stay on as prime minister. That means Obama's counterpart in any peace efforts in his second term will most likely be Netanyahu, whose relationship with the president has been strained. Meanwhile, Netanyahu met Mideast Quartet envoy Tony Blair on Monday. According to the Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu said during the meeting that the developments in the Middle East do not stop because of elections and that he looks forward to working with Blair towards achieving peace and security in the region. The Quartet's envoy said the sides face numerous challenges but he was certain they could be overcome with hard work and good will. During the meeting, the PMO said, Blair criticized the cartoon denigrating Netanyahu published by the British Sunday Times, particularly because it was published on Holocaust Remembrance Day. Reuters, AP contributed to the report

The Role of Israel in Syria
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
The war in Syria is also a concern for Israel, and its results may be as significant as the October 1973 war. The fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime could change the political map and perhaps threaten the existing balance of power formulated after the disengagement agreement signed by President Hafez Al-Assad and Israel, under Henry Kissinger’s auspices, during the October war.
Syria is the second largest neighboring country to Israel after Egypt, and despite the Golan Height’s stability, Syria has never signed a peace treaty—citing Lebanon as a factor in its decision—and is the only neighboring country with a sizeable arsenal of chemical and biological weapons. During the first year of the Syrian revolution, Israelis did not believe that Assad’s resilient regime would collapse. However, since early last year, the Israelis have begun believe that Assad’s fall is now inevitable. With the Syrian president’s downfall, the Israelis will lose a “wise enemy” and a loyal guard, but just as strong as their fear is their growing appetite to influence the final result.
With the fall of Bashar Assad, Israel fears the unknown and as a result is keenly monitoring what is happening on the war fronts in Syria on a daily basis. These Israeli concerns alone are justified and expected, but it would be going too far to attempt to redraw the Syrian map. I do not think that it would be erroneous to say that Israel supports the idea of establishing an Alawite state that Assad is planning along the Mediterranean coast, or several other mini-states for that matter. Israel does not care about a civil war inside Syria, but rather encourages it, and a war between the Syrians would be expected if Assad tried to fragment the country and take over a particular region. Israel is always interested in preoccupying its Arab neighbors in civil wars, and it is surely interested in dismantling Syria into small Kurdish, Alawite, Christian, Druze and Sunni mini-states. But isn’t Israel afraid of the presence of Al-Qaeda in a collapsed Syria? The idea itself is scary but Al-Qaeda is the bogeyman of the West, not Israel. Al-Qaeda has avoided confrontation with the Israelis despite its numerous anti-Semitic rants. Israel knows that none of Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda, Hamas, or even the previous Palestinian red factions such as Abu Nidal and the Popular Front, are threatening its security; they are merely a nuisance. The balance of power is always in Israel’s favor as the Jewish state always wins the war in the end. Israel has fortified itself through building secure borders; it has constructed a long fence separating it off from the West Bank and will build a similar structure with Egypt. It will also build the “Great Wall of Israel” in the Golan Heights, separating it from Syria.
Tel Aviv has not released any information or suggestion regarding the situation in Syria, but we know that this is the most serious affront on its borders and that it directly affects Israeli security. Therefore, it is impossible for Israel to stand still, but little has been said so far. However, after his return from Russia, Israeli president Shimon Peres previously said that the Israelis were against any form of foreign military intervention but would support the proposal to send Arab troops to enforce peace in Syria. Peres certainly knows that international intervention would take one week to topple Assad’s regime, whereas Arab intervention would make the war last for years. The absurd notion of sending Arab troops—also recommended by Arab League—doesn’t identity which Arab troops in particular, or how they would be sent.
I imagine that Israel has influenced Western and Russian stances in dealing with the events in Syria. It is probably behind the decline in their interest and threats towards the Assad regime. For the Israelis, there are four possibilities to end the Syrian tragedy: Firstly, the regime could fall with an alternative, exhausted ruling system being established by the opposition in its place, on what remains of Syria’s destroyed and scorched land. The second possibility is for the regime to fall while the civil war continues and without a strong central government to replace it, in a manner similar to Somalia. The third possibility is that Assad and his entourage will flee to the coast and declare the establishment and annexation of an Alawite mini-state, thus ensuring the continuation of inter-Syrian conflict. The final possibility, which is unlikely to happen, is that the situation will remain as it is and Assad will stay in Damascus while the opposition fight against him; with no visible end to the deadlock.
All of these possibilities would serve Israel. The only option that would have been contrary to Israeli interests was the proposal of international intervention a year ago, overthrowing Assad’s regime and establishing a new one based on democracy with international support. Israel knows that this would have made Syria a stronger neighbor, given that it has a population three times larger than Israel’s and especially if its regime were endorsed by a popular mandate.

Report of blast at Iran nuke facility unconfirmed
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=301184
Report of blast at Iran nuke facility unconfirmed By YAAKOV LAPPIN 01/28/2013 00:46 According to former Iranian Revolutionary Guard report, explosion at Fordow destroyed much of the instillation; remains unverified.
By YAAKOV LAPPIN 01/28/2013 00:46 According to former Iranian Revolutionary Guard report, explosion at Fordow destroyed much of the instillation; remains unverified.A report claiming that a mysterious blast rocked the Fordow uranium enrichment facility in Iran last week made headlines in Israel on Sunday, but remained unverified.
According to the report, penned by former Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Reza Kahlili, for the WND.com website, the explosion “destroyed much of the installation and trapped about 240 personnel deep underground.”
Kahlili, who says he turned CIA agent in the 1980s and 90s, cited a “source in the security forces protecting Fordow” as saying that the blast occurred last Monday at Fordow, which is located deep inside a mountain to protect it from aerial attack. “The blast shook facilities within a radius of three miles. Security forces have enforced a no-traffic radius of 15 miles, and the Tehran- Qom highway was shut down for several hours after the blast,” the report added The existence of the Fordow enrichment plant was kept secret by Iran, until it was discovered by Western intelligence in 2009, and the question of how long it had been in operation remains unanswered.
Emily Landau, director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Project at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, noted on Sunday that Iran is enriching uranium to 20 percent at Fordow, “and it raises concerns because it is buried deep in a mountain.”
She added, “There have been many references to the fact that Israel doesn’t have strong enough bombs to penetrate it from the air, but the US MOP [massive ordnance penetrator] is reported to be able to penetrate it.”
Landau added that reports surfaced six months ago saying that the MOP is operational.
The shutting down of Fordow is one of the three demands made on Iran by the P5+1 nations during talks with the Islamic Republic.
According to a 2011 IAEA report, Iran is testing detonators for nuclear blasts at its secret base in Parchin, and has refused to allow UN inspectors access to the site.

Ex-CIA man: Iran blast largest sabotage in decades
By YAAKOV LAPPIN 01/28/2013/ Former Revolutionary Guard tells 'Post' that such a blow to Fordow nuclear facility would harm Iran drastically.
Iranian dissident-turned CIA operative Reza Kahlili told The Jerusalem Post on Monday that an alleged blast at the Fordow nuclear installation in Iran is "the largest case of sabotage in decades."
Although it has not yet been verified, a report by Kahlili, according to which a massive blast rocked Iran's key Fordow nuclear installation last week, continued to spread on Monday.Iran's Atomic Energy Organization has dismissed reports of an explosion as "Western propaganda," while The Sunday Times cited Israeli intelligence figures as confirming the claim.
Speaking to the Post on Monday, Khalili expressed confidence that the alleged blast will receive "further coverage in the US," and that "more information" will become available to verify the incident.
"This is the center of the Iranian nuclear program. It's essential for the regime, its activities, and its nuclear program. If such a blow was given to Fordow, it definitely harms [Iran] drastically. They were reaching for 20 percent uranium enrichment, and were increasing output," he added.Situated near the holy Shi'ite city of Qom, the existence of the Fordow enrichment plant, dug deep into a mountain, was kept secret by Iran, until it was discovered by Western intelligence in 2009, and the question of how long it had been in operation remains unanswered.
Kahlili, a pseudonym used to protect him from the Iranian regime, published A Time To Betray in 2010, in which he described a journey which took him from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards to being a CIA operative in the 1980s. He now resides in California, and says he is in touch with a number of insiders in the Iranian intelligence and security communities, as well as with the office of Iran's supreme leader.
Asked why satellite imagery was not being released of rescue efforts at Fordow, Kahlili said only state intelligence agencies have access to live satellite feeds. "Why don't they put it out? My only assumption is that no one wants to take credit because of what the consequences could be by the regime," he said. "This is a very sensitive time. I'm sure that soon, very soon, more information will leak out. Chatter will get loud enough to provide further information." Kahlili went on to say that the "first suspicion is Israel" within the Islamic Republic. "I have verified information that there was a meeting [called by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei. A decision was made to act in Lebanon. A request was made to [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah to vacate southern Lebanese villages. Islamic Republic Guards are on their way there. A decision has been made to prepare for missile launch from a certain area in Lebanon against Israel," he said.
Khalili said one of the sources who initially leaked information of the blast came from within the security forces guarding Fordow, adding that precise information of the attack was not being released in order to protect the source. "The source has been collaborating for a long time," he said. A second source came from the Iranian Intelligence Ministry, he said, adding that it was very difficult to safely get information out of Iran.
Iranian authorities have not yet made any progress in their attempt to enter Fordow, Kahlili asserted, adding, "I fear there is radiation involved." Iran's defense ministry dispatched drilling vehicles, "the same they used to carve tunnels and create underground facilities, to see if they can make any headway in opening emergency exists, because they collapsed. Among those stuck in the facility are dozens of foreign nationals. These are contracted scientists," he said.Kahlili said a second mysterious blast occurred in Tehran last week, at an IRGC base called "21 Hamza." "There are injuries, and there have been arrests of IRGC members who are being questioned. The Intelligence Ministry suspects sabotage," he added.

US reluctant to step in vs. Syrian chemical threat, urges neighbors to cope
DEBKAfile Special Report January 28, 2013/Strong reluctance to stepping in to prevent the use of Syria’s chemical weapons was registered by President Barack Obama in an interview Monday, Jan. 28 to The New Republic: “In a situation like Syria, I have to ask: can we make a difference in that situation?” He then continued to ask rhetoricalally: “Could it trigger even worse violence or the use of chemical weapons? What offers the best prospect of a stable post-Assad regime? And how do I weigh tens of thousands who’ve been killed in Syria versus the tens of thousands who are currently being killed in Congo?"
Apples and oranges, commented one Washington observer, after hearing President Obama’s queries.
The outcome of the Bashar Assad’s ruthless 22-month effort backed by Iran and Hizballah at the cost of 80,000 lives will bear profoundly on the next stage of Middle East history, whereas the local conflict between the Katangan militia and Congolese army, however savage, will hardly determine the destiny of continental Africa.
Obama’s remarks appear in the context of a working paper submitted three days ago to US Navy commander, Adm. Jonathan Greenert, which reports that aircraft flying hours in the Middle East have been cut by more than half. Naval experts estimate that the real figure is closer to 70 percent.
A current photograph released by the US Navy shows most of the American aircraft carrier fleet including Marine craft anchored at dock in the United States empty of crews. This fits in with past debkafile disclosures of the fact that the White House last month withdrew US aircraft carriers from Middle East, Red Sea, Persian Gulf and African waters.
On Monday, too, US Ambassador Dan Shapiro maintained in an Israel radio interview that the US and Israel were closely coordinated in all aspects for coping with security challenges in the region, including Syria’s chemical arsenals. He identified two potential dangers in this respect: the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people and their transfer to Hizballah or other extremist groups. “We are anxious to avert both these perils,” he stressed. “We are therefore keeping close watch on the situation and US and Israeli intelligence agencies are sharing data.
Israeli officials tended this week to radiate confidence that the United States would intervene militarily to foil the two threats. No such commitment, however, is even suggested in the US president’s comments. What they do convey is that Obama is concerned with juggling his global priorities for the US military as it shrinks under the knife of deep defense budget cutbacks.
Ambassador Shapiro’s words must therefore be seen as bromides; certainly no commitment.
It fell to the retiring Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to put the situation on the table when he said candidly on Jan. 17: “The United States has quietly asked Turkey and Jordan to keep an eye on Syria’s chemical weaponry and to step in to take responsibility for the ordnance should the need arise.”
The onus for dealing with Assad’s chemical weapons has therefore been placed squarely on Turkish and Jordanian shoulders. Although Israel was not mentioned, it has been made clear that its defense forces face the same expectations from Washington as Syria’s other at-risk neighbors.
The Obama administration will confine US assistance to setting targets, providing intelligence and coordinating Israeli-Turkish-Jordanian military operations for taking control of the dangerous arsenal. Two imponderables remain: What happens if Bashar Assad decides not just to move his chemical arsenal out of its secure sites into the wrong hands but to actualley use it himself on a wide scale? And how will Tehran react to a combined Jordanian-Turkish-Israeli incursion of Syria after declaring Saturday that an attack on its ally would be deemed tantamount to an attack on Iran?

The Brotherhood’s Mistake
By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat
The bloody events over the past three days in Egypt, coinciding with the second anniversary of the Egyptian revolution, have proven the truth behind the claim that the Islamists were wrong to rush and seize power after the elections. Shortly after the Egyptian revolution’s success in overthrowing Hosni Mubarak’s reign, any new government should have realized that the task ahead of them was a thankless one. Corrupt dictatorships are like mites that eat away very deeply into a state’s infrastructure, temporary fillers and distractions do not work; it takes decades to restore what has been destroyed.
The people, who had toiled under tyranny, oppression and theft for decades, were keen to reap the fruits of their revolution against dictatorship, expecting their new leaders to keep them safe and hunger-free. Without these two provisions there can be no stability, even if the new ruling regime is clean and pure. During the “era of President Mursi”, prices have risen, Egypt’s currency has fallen to record lows, the tourism industry has sunk to new depths, capital has fled abroad, the fragile security situation prevails, and the president is suffering from a lack of genuine prestige.
I realize that it is too early to judge President Mursi, and I understand that Egypt’s situation is a natural and logical outcome following any post-revolution phase, but it is not an exaggeration to say that this was always going to be a wretched period to govern, even if Egypt has the most skilled and experienced leaders who are very familiar with the origins of governance.
I have deliberately linked fragile security, rising prices and Egypt’s deteriorating currency during the “era of President Mursi” not because this is my personal conviction, but because this is precisely how the man on the Egyptian street thinks. He leaves the theorizing to politicians and political analysts, and is only concerned with his security, development and a loaf of bread. He will never understand why the president – for justified economic reasons – deliberately increased the price of essential goods, even if this was a textbook example of austerity measures, and even if the president himself had first-hand experience of life on the Egyptian street. In reality, President Mursi decided to raise prices but was then forced to retract his decision the following day.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s initial tactic was to be patient and not seek to control the majority of seats in parliament (this was the right decision before the last parliamentary elections, but then they went back on their word). Initially the Brotherhood were not even going to nominate a presidential candidate, at least in the first presidential elections. Now the microscope of the entire world is scrutinizing this first experiment in Islamic democracy in this pivotal and influential country, where any sort of failure would be catastrophic. This is precisely what the Ennahda movement in Tunisia foresaw when it formed an alliance with rival national forces, and entrusted the presidential position to Moncef Marzouki, a figure who is not affiliated to an Islamist faction. In the case of Egypt, it seems the scene has become divided between the ruling Islamists and the opposing liberals, and this division has led the country towards a dangerous political deadlock, although it is my strong belief that the liberal parties leading the opposition do not have universal respect, nor do they have the man on the Egyptian street.
When it comes to corrupt regimes, it is relatively easy to overthrow the head but it is not so easy to pull out the deep roots buried in the depths of the army, the security services, the media, the judiciary, and the economy. It would have been wiser if the Egyptian Islamists had let others perform the role of the bulldozer and receive the bruises, trauma and wounds for their efforts, knowing that later periods will be better to compete with rivals and vie for the head of state and parliamentary seats, in a more favorable climate. Some may ask me here why I used the word “if” in my previous point. For example, the Brotherhood clearly appealed to the Egyptian street and were elected in fair elections. Would they have benefitted from waiting any longer? The answer is yes. Syria is now on the verge of the post-Assad phase, which will be more severe and complex than the post-Mubarak period, and so the Islamists in Syria must learn the lesson of the Brotherhood in Egypt.

Asharq Al-Awsat Interview: Egyptian PM Hisham Qandil
By Mina Al-Oraibi/Davos, Asharq Al-Awsat—While Egypt is going through political, economic, and social instabilities in parallel with the second anniversary of the Egyptian revolution, the World Economic Forum, which concluded its annual session Saturday evening, witnessed a number of discussions concerning Egypt. Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil attended the forum to talk about the situation in his country. Qandil stressed that the economic situation is not as bad as some people might think; however, he also emphasized the need to spend the liquidity in pushing the economy forward.
Asharq Al-Awsat met the Egyptian prime minister on the sidelines of the forum to talk about the aspirations of his country at this transitional stage, and the role of the opposition in this. The following is the text of the interview:
[Asharq Al-Awsat] How would you asses Egypt’s achievements in the past two years?
[Qandil] I would like to congratulate the Arab people on the occasion of the anniversary of this revolution. A great deal has been achieved on the ground, but there also is a great deal to be achieved, because the Egyptian people have great aspirations in their revolution, whose motto has been: "Bread, Social Justice, and Human Dignity." A great deal has been achieved on the ground, but the aspirations of the Egyptian people for their revolution and for achieving stability, prosperity, and economic development require a great deal of effort and sweat, and this is the aim of our work.
Politically, by the grace of God, we now have a civilian elected president for the first time in the history of modern Egypt. This is something in which we all take pride. During the month of December, there was a referendum on the Constitution, which is the first Constitution after the revolution. During February 2013, the announcements of the parliamentary elections will commence, and these elections are expected to be concluded in May, and with them the democratic constitutional institutions will be completed, and hence the basic structure of democracy will be completed. I would like to emphasize that this is a basic structure, because democracy is more than this, as it is related to transparency, accountability, freedom of expression, and responsibility. Freedom of expression cannot be established without responsibility. All these issues require time, and becoming used to them also requires time. This is something that, God willing, will improve with time.
Nevertheless, we understand that this is a transitional state. The nature of the transitional period and the birth of a great new country have indications, and - God willing - these indications will be for the birth of something great.
Economically, there are major challenges facing the Egyptian economy, both in the budget deficit and the rise in the percentages of poverty and unemployment. However, also there are huge opportunities for the Egyptian economy.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] But how will this be achieved with the many challenges currently facing Egypt?
[Qandil] These opportunities are represented by the strategic position of Egypt in world trade, and also in the market, which contains not only 85 million Egyptians, but also the bilateral and regional agreements that give the investor in Egypt access to a market of some 2 billion people in the Arab and Asian regions and in Europe. The energy, taxes, and labor [costs] compared to Europe is 30 to 40 percent.
All these factors attract the investors. Very soon we need to bring liquidity in the economy in order to deal with the budget deficit.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] In terms of liquidity, how much does Egypt need? Have the deposits announced by Qatar helped in responding to some of these needs?
[Qandil] Egypt is a big country that needs large investments and liquidity, because the budget deficit is large. God willing, we will sign an agreement with the International Monetary Fund [IMF], and we expect the IMF delegation to arrive within the upcoming two weeks. The IMF mission will offer 4.8 billion dollars, and this will be accompanied by some 10.5 billion dollars from other international sides, such as the Word Bank [WB], the African Bank, and the European Union. This is linked to the program of financial and monetary reform on which we now are working, and which is a national program. All these factors undoubtedly will help in pushing forward the investments, but this has to be side by side with the political stability, as both issues are indispensable to each other.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] You are in Davos to attract investments, and as you said, political stability is fundamental in attracting investments, but there are reports of millions of Egyptians leaving Egypt out of the fear of the political situation. How does this influence the Egyptian economy?
[Qandil] First of all, this is the nature of the transitional stage. What is taking place in Egypt requires time, the same as in any country in which there is a revolution, the period of change and stability requires long years. However, what happened in Egypt and the political achievements are great. This is bearing in mind the period of time and the size and position of this country that has great political and strategic influence.
Therefore, there are dangers, but also there are opportunities. For instance, anyone who invests in Egypt now certainly will pay costs of business and investments much less than what he will pay when stability is established completely. Also there are regions in Egypt that are "not affected," as what you see in the photographs are images of specific areas at very limited times in very limited numbers. In order to be clear, and not to undervalue one or two parts, each part has its value, but its effect on investments is different. I believe that the media exaggerates the issues, and portray them as greater than they are on the ground of reality.
God willing, with time the situation will improve, and we all will get used to the democratic practices that respect the right to disagree, and we will adhere to the peaceful character of the demonstrations in order to achieve complete stability soon, God willing.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] We see images of demonstrations and clashes in the streets of Egypt, and there are people who are displeased, even if the demonstrators are in the minority, but they are there; how do you deal with the discontent, and how do you win over the rest of the people?
[Qandil] The greatest test of democracy is the way the majority deals with the minority, because they are part of the Egyptian people, and have their opinions. These opinions might change from one direction to another, and the one that has the majority today might change later on. We are in favor of the peaceful nature of the demonstrations; if they are not satisfied with something, this is their right, and this is democracy and the nature of disagreement; however, we certainly denounce violence and sabotage, and we deal with all firmness with them, because the situation will not be straightened out with highway robbery, arson, and such things.
In the message I sent from here from Davos, I called on all political powers and parties to announce explicitly that they are against disturbances and against violence, because such things are rejected. Sometimes it is said that the demonstrators clashed in front of the Ministry of Interior's headquarters, but the question basically is why did they go to the Interior Ministry? If there is stone throwing, this means that it is not a peaceful demonstration.
We protect and support the peaceful demonstrators, but we should deal according to the law and with all firmness with anyone who attacks and burns institutions.

Egypt’s MB Pressuring Hamas Chief to Continue
Asharq Al-Awsat
London, Asharq Al-Awsat—The Hamas movement has postponed selecting a new Political Bureau chief in a clear bid to persuade incumbent, Khalid Mishal, to nominate himself for a fifth term.
An Informed Palestinian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that delaying the convening of the Hamas Shura Council is meant to give Arab, Palestinian, and Islamic parties’ more time to pressure Mishal to change his mind.
The source which spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity said that the increased pressure on Mishal is due to the change in the positions of many leaders from the movement locally, especially after the recent Israeli war on Gaza and Mishal's visit to the Strip.
The source pointed out that elements in Hamas based abroad, which previously had reservations about Mishal are now convinced that he should continue to lead in the present circumstances. Meanwhile, those who still have reservations are no longer vocal due to Mishal current popularity.
The main source pressure on Mishal today comes from the Egyptian side, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood; the source told Asharq Al-Awsat. The Muslim Brotherhood views Mishal as the individual that can lead the movement toward national reconciliation, which would end Palestinian division. The source said that several Arab and Islamic parties, such as Qatar and Turkey, are also exerting pressure on Mishal to go back on his decision to quit his post.
The source went on to say that despite the sporadic quarrels that break out between Fatah and, the two movements have come to the realization that achieving national reconciliation is an urgent interest for both sides. The source stressed that as far as Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas is concerned, he realizes that the success of the moves he is planning on the international level depends on his ability to restore the unity of Palestinians in the West Bank. The source said that many European sides have become receptive to the Israeli argument that Abbas cannot represent the Palestinians because of the existence of two governments in Gaza and Ramallah.

Canada Offers Condolences Following Nightclub Fire in Brazil
January 27, 2013 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and the Honourable Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs), today issued the following statement:
“On behalf of all Canadians, we express the profound sympathy of our country to the families and friends of those killed and injured. We stand with our Brazilian friends at this difficult time.
“We are working with Brazilian authorities to determine whether Canadians are among the victims.
“Should consular assistance be required, we stand ready to provide it to the families and loved ones of those lost in this tragedy.”