LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 26/2013

Bible Quotation for today/ God Is Light
01 John 01/05-10: " Now the message that we have heard from his Son and announce is this: God is light, and there is no darkness at all in him. If, then, we say that we have fellowship with him, yet at the same time live in the darkness, we are lying both in our words and in our actions. But if we live in the light—just as he is in the light—then we have fellowship with one another, and the blood of Jesus, his Son, purifies us from every sin. If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and there is no truth in us. But if we confess our sins to God, he will keep his promise and do what is right: he will forgive us our sins and purify us from all our wrongdoing. If we say that we have not sinned, we make a liar out of God, and his word is not in us."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The luxury of privacy in today’s America/By Michael Young/Daily Star/January 26/13
Al-Qaeda's Dirty War in Yemen/By: Daniel Green/Washington Institute/January 26/13
Iran: Embracing the Bear at Last/By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/January 26/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 26/13
Hezbollah shrugs off Israeli polls, says to keep arsenal
American Official says U.S. committed to aiding Lebanese Army
Lassa Shooter Hands himself over to Security Forces
Lebanon's PM, Miqati, Ban Discuss Cooperation on Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Lebanon: Nine Islamists Charged with Murdering Inmate at Roumieh
Beirut: Electoral law must abide by Constitution: Shatah
Beirut: Sources: Berri Fears More Divisions over Electoral Draft-Law
Fransen to Hold Status Conference on January 30
Hand Grenade Near Baalbek MP House Damages Vehicles
Aoun: Asir's Remarks Caused Spat, We Can't Contain Such an Incident Every Time
Hezbollah's Nasrallah to Make a Speech on Friday
Source: France Warns of Official Welcoming Ceremony for Abdallah
Beirut: Sources: Berri Fears More Divisions over Electoral Draft-Law
Lapid wants Foreign Affairs, veto for Defense appointment. Bennett – Religious Affairs
Aoun: Asir's Remarks Caused Spat, We Can't Contain Such an Incident Every Time
Violence flares on anniversary of Egypt uprising
Syria sends ground forces to try to seize Sunni areas of Homs
IAEA stresses Iran nuclear "dialogue", Tehran defiant
Canada/Rob Ford wins appeal, remains Toronto mayor
EU Observers Praise Jordan General Election
Report: Netanyahu Offers Centrist Party Chief Foreign, Finance Posts

Hezbollah shrugs off Israeli polls, says to keep arsenal
January 25, 2013/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Hezbollah could care less about the outcome of the recent Israeli elections because the Jewish state’s “project” is falling apart, Hezbollah’s number two said late Thursday.
“Israel held polls and some waited to see who would win ... But in Hezbollah we did not wait for results because we believe Israel has entered the stage of defeats and the results today show the defects [that emerged] after the July 2006 war ... and the Gaza war,” Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy chief, said in a statement published late Thursday.
“This means that the Israeli project is gradually descending into the abyss, and here we have to stay steadfast to face the remnants of this project,” Qassem said. Benjamin Netanyahu won a narrow victory in Israel's general election earlier this week. The Hezbollah official said Israel was no longer free to take decisions as liberally as it once could in terms of peace and war and he reiterated the need for Hezbollah’s arsenal.
Israel, he said, is “forced to make a lot of calculations in terms of its home front.”
“The battle is no longer inside enemy land but in the land it [Israel] has occupied, and that's what makes confusion exist inside Israel when any battle or any assault [erupts] in the region,” he said.
“And this proves the need for the dear, honorable and heroic resistance [Hezbollah] because it is the one that created this shift in the reality of the Israeli entity.”
Hezbollah believes its weapons deter Israel from taking any aggressive steps against Lebanon.
He warned that calls to “bring down the resistance or to topple the resistance arms” would be considered an Israeli demand.
Lebanon’s opposition March 14 coalition has been pressing for the disarmament of Hezbollah, arguing that the state alone should have a monopoly on the use of force.

Beirut: Electoral law must abide by Constitution: Shatah
January 25, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Any new electoral law should be based on the Constitution and National Pact, former Minister Mohammad Shatah said Friday.
“The formula should stem from the Constitution and the National Pact and it should not place the Lebanese in a sectarian ditch,” Shatah, an advisor to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, told Voice of Lebanon radio station.
The country’s National Pact, an unwritten understanding among the country’s founders, stipulates that power should be shared equally between Lebanon’s Muslims and Christians.
Lawmakers are at odds over which electoral proposal to adopt and have so far failed to reach a consensus on any single draft law.
The parliamentary subcommittee discussing electoral proposals ended its work Wednesday and is preparing a report for Speaker Nabih Berri who will decide on whether to refer the conclusions of the talks to parliamentary joint committees. Shatah said Friday that talks were ongoing among March 14 members to reach an agreement to resolve the differences which he described as threatening to shatter the alliance.
“The point of the discussions is to arrive at a detailed formula to address the [disputes], which are being exploited at the sectarian level to create a fissure among the March 14 forces,” he told the radio station.
He said the Future Movement was open to any formula that reassures the country’s different sects.
“We are open to any formula that genuinely reassures the sects and no electoral law should be used to cling to legislative power after they took control of the executive power,” he said.
In a rare show of consensus among Christian political parties in the country, the Kataeb, Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces and Marada Movement have backed the Orthodox Gathering proposal which projects Lebanon as a single district in which the different sects elect their own lawmakers.
The proposal has come under fire from the Future Movement, Progressive Socialist Party and President Michel Sleiman, who have warned the approach would only fuel sectarianism in the country.
Asked to comment on the consensus among Christian parties in the opposition on the Orthodox Gathering law, Shatah said: “We do not view them as parties from the Christian makeup [of the country] but as a wing [sect] that works with the other Lebanese Christian-Muslim wing under a unitary vision and that means there are no significant differences,” he said.
According to MPs who attended Berri’s weekly meeting with lawmakers, the speaker is keen that every effort be taken to achieve consensus on an electoral law and noted that all groups should cooperate to agree on such a law and hold elections on time.
Shatah also commented on Berri’s proposal that half of Parliament be elected using a winner-takes-all system and the other using proportional representation.
“MP Ahmad Fatfat commented on this subject but in any event these conditions and standards we have placed apply in different circumstance and I do not know how the districts would be divided under Berri’s proposal,” he said. “There are differences on this matter in terms of the number of MPs and the division of districts because in the end there need to be clarifications in order to reassure the Christian wing that it is truly a genuine equal partner,” he added. “We want to go beyond demographics and arrive at two level plains in terms of decisions and visions and that there should be no hegemony or a monopoly [of power],” he said.
Shatah also reiterated his party’s objection to an electoral law based on proportional representation.

American Official says U.S. committed to aiding Lebanese Army
January 25, 2013/ The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Matthew Spence met Lebanese officials Friday and voiced his country’s commitment to the aid program for the Lebanese military. Spence met with President Michel Sleiman at Baabda Palace where the two “discussed bilateral relations and military cooperation where Spence affirmed the United States' commitment to the American aid program to the military."According to Sleiman's office, the two also spoke about the situation in the region. Earlier Friday, the U.S. official met with the commander of the Lebanese Army, Gen. Jean Kahwagi. The two discussed means of developing ties between the armies of the two countries, according to the Lebanese Army. The Army’s Directorate General quoted Spence as “voicing appreciation for the national role that the Lebanese Army is undertaking and his country's commitment to supporting and strengthening the capabilities of the [Lebanese] military.” The United States has said that it will boost the Army's capabilities as part of a multi-million dollar assistance package.
In December, the Army received a delivery of six helicopters and spare parts. In January 2013, the army received 200 Armored Personnel Carriers as part of the U.S. military aid program.

Hand Grenade Near Baalbek MP House Damages Vehicles
Naharnet /Unknown assailants have tossed a hand grenade in the eastern city of Baalbek, meters away from the house of a Hizbullah MP, causing material damage only, the National News Agency reported on Friday. NNA said the grenade tossed in al-Rifai neighborhood around 3:00 am damaged two vehicles – a Mitsubishi with a Syrian license plate and also a Syrian-plated Hyundai van - parked on the side of the road. The attack took place only 100 meters away from the residences of lawmaker Kamel al-Rifai and Sheikh Mohammed Ayman al-Rifai. The MP told Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) that the attack had no political intentions.
“It was part of the chaos as young people are taking advantage of what's happening in Lebanon to tamper with its security,” he said.

Lebanon: Lassa Shooter Hands himself over to Security Forces
Naharnet /The man who shot and killed two locals from the Jbeil town of Lassa handed himself over to security forces after the family of the victims had blocked roads in protest against the murder.
Information obtained by al-Jadeed television said that the assailant had handed himself over to the concerned security authorities. Ghassan Seifeddine and his son Hadi were killed during an individual dispute, which erupted after a traffic accident, in the Wata al-Joz region on Thursday. Investigations revealed the attacker as Anthony Khalil Khalil, who fled the scene soon after the shooting. On Friday, relatives of the victims in Lassa blocked the Mayrouba-Wata al-Joz road to demand the arrest of Khalil. In Beirut, a number of youths blocked the Hadi Nasrallah highway with burning tires to also demand Khalil's arrest. A similar protest was held in the town of Ain in the northern Bekaa, said al-Jadeed. All the roads have since been reopened.

Lebanon: Nine Islamists Charged with Murdering Inmate at Roumieh
Naharnet /Nine Islamists were charged on Friday with the murder of a Palestinian inmate at Roumieh Prison, reported the National News Agency. State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr charged eight Islamist inmates with murder and a ninth Islamist who is not held at the jail. They may face the death penalty if convicted of the murder of Ghassan al-Qandaqli. In addition, Saqr charged two soldiers at Roumieh Prison with negligence, referring them for investigation. It was initially reported that Qandaqli, first identified as Ghassan Sandaqli by the media, had committed suicide by hanging in Roumieh's Bloc B. As Safir newspaper reported on January 22 however that he was actually severely beaten to death by Fatah al-Islam members. A meeting was later held on Friday between security officials and Islamist inmates with an agreement being reached to allow security forces to return to Bloc B of the jail, reported LBCI television. The security forces will be allowed to search all areas of the jail and the inmates will cooperate fully with them.

Beirut: Sources: Berri Fears More Divisions over Electoral Draft-Law
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri has lamented that Lebanese rival political parties were seeking the adoption of an electoral law that gives them the majority of seats in parliament, a move that would take Lebanon to more divisions, pan-Arab daily al-Hayat reported on Friday. Al-Hayat quoted Berri's sources as saying that “the electoral calculations could take back Lebanon to a new round of vertical divisions between the (opposition) March 14 and March 8 (majority) alliances.” “The alternative will be the commitment to the division of power between Christians and Muslims by electing 64 MPs based on a winner-takes-all system and the remaining half based on proportionality,” the speaker reportedly said. March 8 sees proportionality as a gateway for clinching the majority of seats after the elections while the opposition is advocating the division of Lebanon into small districts to emerge victorious in the polls, he said. Berri has been advocating a hybrid draft-law that combines both winner-takes-all and proportional representation systems in an attempt to appease all factions. The main Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement, the Phalange, the Lebanese Forces and Marada – have announced support for the adoption of the so-called Orthodox Gathering proposal which calls for a single district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional representation system. But al-Mustaqbal movement, the Progressive Socialist Party and independent March 14 Christians have criticized it for harming the social fabric.

Lebanon's PM, Miqati, Ban Discuss Cooperation on Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Naharnet/Prime Minister Najib Miqati discussed with U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon on Friday the cooperation between Lebanon and international organizations on the Syrian refugees, his press office said.
Miqati met with Ban on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort Davos. The talks focused on “the situation in the Middle East and the ongoing cooperation between Lebanon and international organizations on the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon,” his office said. The prime minister and Ban also discussed the preparations for the donor conference in Kuwait on January 30. Miqati said on Twitter he “had a progressive meeting” with Ban who is “hoping a good success for the international donor meeting in Kuwait next week.”In addition to his meeting with the U.N. secretary-general, Miqati held talks with his counterparts from Egypt and Georgia with whom he discussed bilateral ties. He also held a separate meeting with President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region Massoud Barzani. Miqati is set to address the global elite in Davos on Friday.

Aoun: Asir's Remarks Caused Spat, We Can't Contain Such an Incident Every Time
Naharnet /Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun on Thursday held security forces responsible for any future security incident, in the wake of the spat that erupted earlier in the day over a controversial visit by Salafist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir and his supporters to a ski resort in the Kesrouan town of Kfardebian. “We overcame the problem but it would be difficult to overcome such an incident if it was repeated,” Aoun said in a phone interview with his movement's mouthpiece OTV. “Asir insults all Lebanese figures in his speeches and he attacked me as well as (Hizbullah chief) Sayyed (Hassan) Nasrallah and Speaker (Nabih) Berri several times and these reasons prompted some young men to try blocking the road,” Aoun added. Around 50 protesters from Kfardebian briefly blocked the main road of the mountain town on Thursday to protest Asir's visit. Several attempts by the army and security forces to allow the buses to cross the barricade left at least two people slightly injured. The road was eventually reopened after the more than two-hour protest.
“Citizens must not block roads in the face of visitors and security forces must take measures to prevent them. We contained the situation to avoid danger and we rose above the shooting on my convoy and the (Tripoli) attack on (Sports and Youth) Minister (Faisal) Karami because we're trying to contain what's happening,” said Aoun, warning that the recent security incidents are aimed at dragging the country into strife. “We hold security forces responsible for what's happening on the ground and we cannot contain such an incident every time. We thank Asir for his compassion, but we want his rhetoric and love to be like this all the time, not occasionally,” added Aoun.
“We don't want 'another Ain al-Rummaneh bus' and another civil war in Lebanon and what's important is to prevent its spark. All people are welcome but they must have a clean history,” he went on to say.
Aoun also noted that he had called on supporters not to protest Asir's visit to the ski resort.

Aoun: Asir's Remarks Caused Spat, We Can't Contain Such an Incident Every Time
Naharnet /Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun on Thursday held security forces responsible for any future security incident, in the wake of the spat that erupted earlier in the day over a controversial visit by Salafist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir and his supporters to a ski resort in the Kesrouan town of Kfardebian. “We overcame the problem but it would be difficult to overcome such an incident if it was repeated,” Aoun said in a phone interview with his movement's mouthpiece OTV. “Asir insults all Lebanese figures in his speeches and he attacked me as well as (Hizbullah chief) Sayyed (Hassan) Nasrallah and Speaker (Nabih) Berri several times and these reasons prompted some young men to try blocking the road,” Aoun added. Around 50 protesters from Kfardebian briefly blocked the main road of the mountain town on Thursday to protest Asir's visit. Several attempts by the army and security forces to allow the buses to cross the barricade left at least two people slightly injured. The road was eventually reopened after the more than two-hour protest.
“Citizens must not block roads in the face of visitors and security forces must take measures to prevent them. We contained the situation to avoid danger and we rose above the shooting on my convoy and the (Tripoli) attack on (Sports and Youth) Minister (Faisal) Karami because we're trying to contain what's happening,” said Aoun, warning that the recent security incidents are aimed at dragging the country into strife.
“We hold security forces responsible for what's happening on the ground and we cannot contain such an incident every time. We thank Asir for his compassion, but we want his rhetoric and love to be like this all the time, not occasionally,” added Aoun. “We don't want 'another Ain al-Rummaneh bus' and another civil war in Lebanon and what's important is to prevent its spark. All people are welcome but they must have a clean history,” he went on to say. Aoun also noted that he had called on supporters not to protest Asir's visit to the ski resort.

Al-Qaeda's Dirty War in Yemen
Daniel Green/Washington Institute
January 25, 2013
Yemen needs increased and refocused military aid to continue the long fight against adaptive al-Qaeda forces.
This is the second installment of a two-part series on the al-Qaeda threat in Yemen. Read PolicyWatch 2021, which offered recommendations for countering the group's soft-power efforts. Over the past two years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has demonstrated significant ideological flexibility and adaptive leadership in its fight against the Yemeni government. The group's ability to shift tactics in the face of military setbacks indicates that it is much more strategically and operationally dynamic than previously understood. As AQAP turns to assassination and intimidation campaigns while reconstituting its forces, Washington and Sana must adjust their military and intelligence efforts accordingly.
MILITARY REFORM
Following his inauguration last February, Yemeni president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi undertook a series of personnel changes within the military in order to consolidate his authority and bolster efforts against AQAP. Having inherited forces largely run by family members and close associates of former president Ali Saleh, the new leader focused on unifying an institution riven by factional disputes.
This process required Mansour Hadi to continue accommodating some of Saleh's supporters. Yet he also removed some of the former president's relatives, such as air force chief Gen. Muhammad Saleh al-Ahmar and Presidential Guard leader Gen. Tariq Muhammad Abdullah Saleh. In addition, he diluted the power of units such as the Republican Guard (led by Saleh's son, Ahmed Ali), placing it under other military commands and splitting up some of its subordinate units. Additional reforms included rotating the heads of commands in order to professionalize the military and diminish the phenomenon of soldiers becoming loyal to their commanders rather than the state. Mansour Hadi also sought to infuse new energy and leadership into the fight against AQAP in the south. To this end, he named Brig. Gen. Salem Ali Qatan as head of the southern military region. Meanwhile, the United States helped Yemeni forces prepare for confrontation with AQAP through increased military aid. It also expanded drone strikes against the group's leadership, depleting their ranks and keeping them on the defensive.
CONFRONTING AL-QAEDA
In 2011, the security situation in many areas of the south became chaotic when government forces deployed to the capital to deal with factional fighting. As a result, whole towns came under AQAP's control, including the capital of Abyan province. Assassinations and suicide attacks also increased throughout the region, especially in Aden, the former capital of South Yemen. At the time, President Saleh saw some political advantage in AQAP's advances, which bolstered the claim that he was indispensable to maintaining security.
Upon assuming office last year, Mansour Hadi authorized a wider offensive to repel AQAP from the areas it seized in 2011. Using a mix of local "Popular Committees" (tribal militias) and a more-robust military presence under new leadership, the government pushed al-Qaeda out of most such areas and back into its historic safe havens in central Yemen.
Sana's offensive was bolstered by the fact that AQAP had imposed its harsh version of religious law on the areas it seized. Although the group's campaign to gain popular support saw some success, its oppressive rule alienated many and prompted the flight of thousands. Combined with the determined Yemeni offensive, increased U.S. military assistance, and expanded drone strikes, such sentiments helped significantly degrade al-Qaeda's presence.
A DIRTY WAR
Having been temporarily defeated using conventional military methods, AQAP has shifted tactics. Over the past several months, the group has undertaken a concerted murder and intimidation campaign targeting security, military, and intelligence officials working against it, not just in the south, but also in the capital. The most notable victim thus far was General Qatan, the southern commander who was killed by a suicide attacker in mid-June. By one count, at least fifty-five officials, many of whom worked on counterterrorism, have been assassinated by suicide attacks, improvised explosive devices, or small-arms fire.
AQAP's ability to conduct such strikes in the capital shows that its reach has grown significantly. It also suggests possible collusion with government security forces in Sana, some of whom may be allied with former president Saleh. In addition, the shift in tactics has bought time for AQAP to replenish its ranks following losses from last year's government offensive. This underscores the need for a determined push to pacify al-Qaeda safe havens. AQAP's ability to leverage local sentiment as a means of gaining control indicates an adept understanding of why the group requires popular support to carry out its activities. While its temporary rule over large swathes of the south alienated many people, others welcomed the group's efforts to provide order, stability, dispute resolution, and modest development assistance. As long as AQAP can draw from its popular base in parts of central Yemen and elsewhere in the country, efforts to stamp out the group will have only short-lived results.
U.S. OPTIONS
As was eventually learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, confronting an insurgency requires a strategy organized like an insurgency: decentralized and village-based, with a long-term vision that blends civil and military approaches. Only Yemen's government can provide fundamental solutions to the nonkinetic problems al-Qaeda feeds off, such as good governance, development, and reconstruction. But the United States can increase Sana's ability and willingness to undertake that effort, in part by enhancing the government's military and intelligence capabilities in both the capital and the provinces. Specifically, Washington should:
Expand military training. U.S. trainers should be embedded with Yemeni units in Sana, to both bridge political differences between military factions and advise forces confronting AQAP. In addition to bolstering President Mansour Hadi's professionalization efforts, such assistance would improve the military's combat effectiveness and help disseminate U.S. lessons learned from fighting insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. This last point is especially important given AQAP's increasing embrace of insurgent tactics -- Yemen needs help protecting its military leaders from assassinations, bolstering base defenses, and engaging the population in support of counterinsurgency operations.
Regularize tribal Popular Committees. Although Yemeni military clearing operations have temporarily pushed AQAP from parts of the south, a dedicated holding force must be established to supplement the army's efforts. Washington should explore the possibility of helping Yemen regularize its tribal supporters into defensively oriented, legitimate security forces much like the Afghan Local Police program and Iraq's Anbar Awakening Councils. These local partners have an incentive to prevent al-Qaeda from returning. If done correctly, such an initiative would be enduring -- the new local units would answer to Sana, and this oversight would increase both their legitimacy and effectiveness.
Bolster U.S. intelligence assistance to prevent assassinations. The frequency and nature of AQAP assassinations -- personally targeting specific officials using preplanned attacks -- suggest that the group has dedicated terrorist cells focused on this task. And as mentioned previously, the ease with which they have reached high-level targets suggests some degree of collusion with current or former Yemeni officials. Washington should consider providing technical and other assistance (e.g., counterintelligence advice) to uncover any insiders who allow al-Qaeda to attack officials at will. This assistance can also be used to marginalize irredentist elements focused on undermining Mansour Hadi's authority in order to secure additional power for themselves.
*Daniel Green is a Soref fellow at The Washington Institute and a military veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Jordan: Between Economic Crisis and the GCC Response
By Abdulaziz Sager/Asharq Alawsat
Under the impact of the Arab Spring, Jordan today is facing mounting security and political pressures. Combined with a serious economic crisis, this potentially poses a threat to the stability and future of the state, which in turn could have a considerable impact on the entire region and on the Arabian Gulf states in particular.
From the outset, it should be understood that the political implications of the Arab Spring on Jordan are somewhat limited due to a number of factors specifically related to the nature of Jordanian state and society. First, the majority of Jordanians continue to feel attached to the Royal Hashemite regime. They consider the regime a guarantor of the stability of the state and its long-term survivability. Most of the citizens are fully aware of the vulnerability of the state on account of its small size and diverse population comprising people of different ethnic and cultural backgrounds.
Second, the tribes in Jordan represent a significant power structure within Jordanian society and their exists at the moment among them a consensus on the value of maintaining the Jordanian monarchy. A similar position has been adopted by the military and security institutions as they also recognize the vital role of the Hashemite royal family in protecting the stability and security of the state. Third, the Iraqi experience since the downfall of the Saddam regime and the subsequent collapse of the security and economic situation in Iraq has had a negative effect on the perception of the Jordanian people. The lessons from the ongoing Syrian revolution have only added another discouraging factor for anyone considering initiating an uprising in Jordan. More than 600,000 Syrians have fled their homes and many have sought refuge in neighboring states (according to a UN report at least 250,000 are already in Jordan). This, along with the destruction of the Syrian state's infrastructure, has sent a clear message to the Jordanian people of the negative consequences of a revolt.
The continued security, political, and economic crises in other Arab Spring states has added to the reluctance of the Jordanians. To them, the experience of the transition in neighboring Arab states has had a dark, as well as a bright, side. Nevertheless, major Jordanian cities have witnessed popular demonstrations during the past months, mainly in protest over the economic situation, the rise in basic food and fuel costs, as well as corruption in the state machinery. None of those protest rallies, however, demanded the downfall of the regime.
In this context, the Jordanian state does not face an existential political legitimacy problem, nor is it affected by sectarian or ethnic conflict as is the case in Syria and Iraq. Jordan has never been a dictatorship. Its political system is known for a degree of flexibility and a reasonable level of tolerance. It allows for relative freedom of expression and media as well as the right to establish political parties. Administratively, Jordan has a well-established tradition allowing a considerable degree of dynamism and adaptability, and an elected parliament which is open to all political groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic groups. Instead, it is the formidable challenge presented by the critical economic situation that will remain the main threat to the stability of the Jordanian regime. The fact is that this crisis cannot be overcome without considerable outside assistance, in particular assistance from the Gulf States. Such assistance must be extended under a collective agreement among all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and should be offered under the umbrella of the GCC as part of a specific formula and within a specified time-frame.
The GCC states must view widespread assistance to Jordan as an unavoidable necessity. Strategically, and because of its proximity to the Gulf region, Jordan is included in the Gulf region's security calculations. On one hand, Jordan is subject to mounting Israeli pressure given that by weakening Jordan the Israeli leadership hopes to implement its plan to force the Palestinian population of the West Bank to immigrate to Jordan. This would be in order to achieve the "transfer" by creating an alternative state of Palestine in Jordan and thus realizing its plan of founding a Jewish state on the historical land of Palestine. Such a plan has been in existence since the establishment of the state of Israel back in 1948. From 1967, it has become part of the Israeli strategic objectives.
On the other hand, Jordan shares significant borders with countries that are undergoing conflict like Syria and Iraq, which in turn could have a negative effect on the fragmented society of the country. The Hashemite regime in Jordan is known for its ability to maintain a degree of balance among all the internal forces and interest groups and for its ability to deal with external pressure as well as the regional and international balance of power. This has made Jordan an important player in the regional and international political arenas, despite the fact that it is a relatively small state with limited resources.
As such, there is an imperative for the GCC states to help Jordan out of its economic crisis. As it stands, the Arab world's political and security structure cannot, at the present time, cope with or manage another crisis. The Arab security system, if such a structure exists at all, is not equipped to deal effectively with the multiple fires presently sweeping the Arab world. A further crisis in Jordan could easily spin out of control and add to the current vulnerability of the entire Middle East region.
Statistics indicate that Jordan is in need of an assistance plan to aid the urgent recovery of its fragile economy. National debt is remarkably high, and the debt burden had reached more than $20 billion by the end of October 2012; approximately $8 billion of this is external debt reflecting 26 percent of GDP. The budget deficit for 2012 has soared to $1.175 billion while the inflation level touched 4.3 percent and official unemployment has settled at the 13.1 percent mark. Within these numbers, the major challenge facing the Jordanian economy is the cost of meeting the energy needs estimated at over 100,000 b/d (Iraq supplies 10,000-15,000 b/d at a discounted price).
Jordan's energy crisis has deepened as a result of the developments in Egypt after the January 25 revolution which led to demands for a swift increase in the price of natural gas supplied to Jordan by Egypt. Jordan was importing 6.8 million cubic meters daily, at a cost of $3.5 million (when the cost of each million Btu [British thermal unit] stood at $7).
To enable Jordan to manage its economic and energy crisis, the GCC states could offer the country an economic assistance package including deposits to cover the state's central bank for a period until the end of 2013, and an interest-free amount equal to Jordan's external debt which could act as a collateral until the country is able to pay back or find some another settlement for the issue of its external debt. In order to reduce the burden of the energy bill, the GCC states should supply Jordan with 50,000 b/d of oil at a discounted price for a minimum period of four years.
At the same time, the GCC states should proceed with offering Jordan the financial assistance that has been already been agreed to, which amounts to $5 billion over a five-year period, and honor the payment timetable to avoid any unnecessary delay. An additional deposit of $5 billion could be made to underpin the Jordanian currency and an active investment program could be launched to help the Jordanian economy generate new employment opportunities and add value to the country's economic growth. The already existing agreements which exempt Jordanian products from customs duties and local taxes in the GCC also needs to be activated. Opening the GCC employment market to the Jordanian workforce and relaxing the residency regulations for job-seekers would also help in economic recovery efforts.
For its part, the Jordanian government should introduce more transparency and clarity in the system, make a serious effort to fight corruption, and undertake political and administrative reforms with the aim to improve the economic and social well-being of the Jordanian citizens.
The above steps are the only possible means by which Jordan could begin the exit from the deep troubles it is faced with. Dealing effectively with Jordan's economic crisis is the only way to save the country from sliding towards political instability and becoming the next stop for the Arab Spring.

Iran: Embracing the Bear at Last
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
Last week, in what might be his administration’s last important foreign policy move, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad concluded a major security treaty with Russia. Signed in Tehran by Interior Minister Muhammad Mostafa Najjar and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Kolokoltsev, the agreement represents a break with an old principle in Iran’s defense and security doctrines.
Ever since the 18th century when it emerged as an organized state, Russia has been a source of fear and fascination for its Iranian neighbors.
Having coped with attacks by Turkic hordes from the east for centuries, Iran perceived Russia as a new threat from the north. Several wars of varying magnitude proved that analysis right. In terms of territory, Russia became the largest empire in history. However, bordering on mostly frozen seas and thus virtually landlocked, it could not project naval power, the principal instrument of global domination. Successive czars dreamed of the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. And that meant annexing or dominating Iran.
In Iranian political folklore, Russia was depicted as a bear whose embrace, even if friendly, could smother you. Haj Mirza Aghasi, an Iranian Grand Vizier in the 19th century, insisted that Iran should neither get too close nor too far from the bear. If too close, the bear could crush it. If too far the bear could mount a deadly ambush.
During both world wars, Iran tried to stay neutral, a policy that antagonized the “bear” and led to invasion by Russia and its allies. The late Shah learned the art of living with the bear. While allying Iran with the “Free World” he also took care not to provoke the Soviet Union. Thus he would not allow Western business interests, including oil companies, to operate in provinces close to the Soviet border. At the same time, he resisted pressure to enter into security cooperation with the USSR, to allow the Soviet navy mooring facilities in the Gulf and to buy Soviet weapons on a large scale. Moscow tried to go around Iran by signing pacts with several Arab states, notably Egypt and Iraq, and establishing a foothold in Communist-dominated South Yemen.
After the Shah’s fall and the end of the USSR, the tradition of keeping the Russian bear at arms’ length continued under the Khomeinist regime.
The new Irano-Russian security pact provides for cooperation in intelligence gathering across the world and the fight against terrorism, people-trafficking, and drug-smuggling.
More significantly, it commits Russia to training and equipping Iranian security forces in crowd control and dealing with civil unrest. Tehran and Moscow are nervous about being hit by "Arab Spring" style uprisings. Under the agreement, Moscow will help Tehran create special police units patterned on the 500,000-strong “internal army” controlled by the Russian Interior Ministry.
Created in 1802 the Russian Interior Ministry has always been the principal security arm of the state. Initially known by the acronym MVD, the ministry’s intelligence unit was renamed NKVD under Stalin. In 1953 it was absorbed into the security network controlled by Lavrenti Beria, Stalin’s fellow Georgian and, for long, regarded as the most brutal member of the Soviet ruling elite. Under Nikita Khrushchev the NKVD was reborn as the KGB, impacting both domestic and foreign policies.
Contrary to expectations, the fall of the USSR did not spell the end of the dreaded security apparatus. It helped Boris Yeltsin crush the remnants of the Communist Party and, from 2004 on-wards, served as a ladder for Vladimir Putin’s ascent to the summit in the Kremlin. Last year, Rashid Nurgaliyev, the man in charge of the ministry for eight years, was sacked, ostensibly because he had grown too big for his boots. Nurgaliyev, who is of Muslim origin, played a key role in helping Putin crush Islamist uprisings in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan.
The Irano-Russian security deal is the latest sign that something may be changing in Moscow-Tehran relations. Last week, Iran played host to Russian warships visiting Bandar-Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz in what looks like the opening gambit for a Russian naval presence in the strategic waterway. Next week, Iran is slated to take part in naval exercises by the Russian fleet in Syrian waters around Tartus where Tehran and Moscow have mooring rights. Ahmadinejad has always appeared keen on drawing the Islamic Republic closer to Moscow as part of his dream of a Tehran-Moscow-Beijing axis. Russia, however, has played hard-to-get, mostly because Yeltsin and, for some time after him, Putin hoped to strike a deal with the US. Yeltsin and Putin declined repeated invitations by the mullahs to pay a state visit to Tehran.
Observers in Tehran say the change in Irano-Russian relations is caused by several factors.
Both regimes are involved in the Syrian civil war on the side of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Both believe that the “Arab Spring” is the result of “plots” hatched by Washington under the Bush administration a decade ago. Both fear that the “velvet revolution” recipe for regime change could be used against them. They wish to draw a line in the sand: no more “Arab Spring” regime change!
Moscow and Tehran regard what they see as an American strategic retreat under President Barack Obama as an opportunity. They think that, with the US out, no other “hostile” power has the capacity to check their regional ambitions. Ahmadinejad and Putin also share an interest in curbing the appetite of Sunni Islamists, something that could threaten both regimes.
All in all, however, dancing with the bear would be unpopular in both countries. Many Iranians still regard Russia with suspicion while many Russians would rather see their country as part of the Western world and not an ally of a regime caught in the cobweb of time.

The luxury of privacy in today’s America
January 24, 2013/By Michael Young/The Daily Star
The Pentagon’s inspector general has cleared Gen. John Allen, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, of accusations that he engaged in inappropriate conduct with Jill Kelly, a Tampa socialite.
Kelly’s name came to light following the resignation of David Petraeus. It was her request that the FBI investigate threatening emails she received from an anonymous source, later identified as Paul Broadwell, Petraeus’ paramour, that led investigators to uncover a trove of emails between Kelly and Allen. The allegation that some of these emails were sexual in nature prompted U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to order a formal inquiry.
The episode was an embarrassment for Allen, a moment when America wasted much energy in defense of its puritan mores. Given that military statistics show that some 30 percent of commanders fired since 2005 lost their jobs due to sexually related offenses, Allen and Petraeus were right to be worried. Petraeus opted to come clean quickly when it was revealed that he had conducted an affair, resigning as head of the Central Intelligence Agency.
What has been most disturbing about Petraeus’ and Allen’s cases is that it showed how the notion of privacy can sometimes be insignificant in the United States. Petraeus’ emails to his mistress were discovered by the FBI when they began searching for the person who had sent hostile emails to Kelly. In other words, Petraeus had no way of preserving his own privacy as the feds first trawled through his and Broadwell’s private email accounts. On top of that, Allen was soon lassoed into the scandal, without any justification whatsoever.
Panetta has been criticized for asking that Allen be investigated. For some critics, this will have hampered his actions in Afghanistan and damaged his reputation, whatever the consequences of the Pentagon investigation. But Panetta had to act because America is a nation run by lawyers, and his civilian and military lawyers recommended that the secretary refer Allen’s case to the Pentagon’s inspector general.
You have to wonder why two senior officers entrusted with leading American most sensitive military operations overseas, have to be humiliated for possibly displaying too much fondness for women. What is it about America that allows the authorities to expend a great deal of time and money to see to it that officials are faithful only to God and their spouses?
Two decades ago, the sociologist Richard Sennett wrote a fascinating article in Harper’s magazine in which he examined the American propensity to open up all aspects of people’s lives. He explained this as a consequence of the fact that the early settlers tended to congregate around their churches. This strengthened their communal bonds, and interaction, so that privacy was seen as a way of separating oneself from the community. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a right to privacy in the modern American republic, because there is. However, time and again this has been too easily undermined by a combination of the American tendency to regard openness as a virtue, proof of one’s honesty, and the defense of free speech and a free press, as articulated in the first amendment of the Constitution.
Free speech means that when someone strays from the righteous path, this can be discussed in media outlets without fear of being silenced. Yet this didn’t quite convince the Kellys, who published a commentary in The Washington Post on Jan. 22, decrying the way they were hounded after the Petraeus scandal broke. They wrote, “Our experience of having our privacy invaded and our lives turned upside down by authorities leaking our names and the existence of private electronic correspondence highlights the need for measures that ensure citizens retain their privacy when they seek assistance and protection from law enforcement and that the names of those who report a crime are not made public.”
The Kellys also used their article to defend passage of legislation mandating that law enforcement agencies get a court-approved search warrant before they can examine emails or other electronic content. Today, all that the police need is a subpoena, which does not necessitate the consent of a court. A Senate committee has voted in favor of court approval for searches. This represents a victory for civil libertarians, because if the entire Senate endorses the proposal, law enforcement agencies will have to prove probable cause when asking for a warrant.
That may be too late for Petraeus or Allen, whose reputation has already suffered from intrusion into their emails. How ironic that both men come from the military, which plays so central a role in most agencies specialized in spying on private citizens. A society in which lawyers and security personnel are influential can hardly avoid ignoring privacy. The first tend to stick to the letter of the law, allowing little room for interpretation, while the second find no abuse too reprehensible in protecting against potential crimes or attacks.
Barack Obama is no admirer of George W. Bush. Yet when it comes to issues of privacy and civil liberties, Obama has continued what his predecessor started after 9/11. The American government and law enforcement agencies know too much about us, or want to know too much, so that whenever issues of privacy are discussed, the default position is to argue that privacy is a thing of the past, abandoned on fields littered with invasive cellular telephones and Internet networks. There is a sense that the battle is over, that privacy is a favor in this day and age when policemen can access our most personal details.
But how true is that? There is nothing that peeping toms like less than a fuss. If enough people, Americans and non-Americans alike, say no to being spied upon, they will see progress. Public safety should not justify being stripped down by utter strangers. Truly open societies are those that will thwart an excess of openness. States don’t own us, although you would hardly know that from the way they behave.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Lapid wants Foreign Affairs, veto for Defense appointment. Bennett – Religious Affairs
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 25, 2013/The new arrival to Israeli politics, Yair Lapid and his Future (Yesh Atid) party, have kicked off the bargaining to join Binyamin Netanyahu’s next government armed with a substantial shopping list for jobs and other demands. debkafile’s political sources report he is claiming the foreign ministry for himself and the right to veto the prime minister’s choice of defense minister in case it is Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu’s partner as co-leader of Likud-Beitenu.
If Lieberman is kept from his old job as foreign minister, he has told Netanyahu he wants Defense.
Lapid is also refusing to sit in the same government as Shas leader Arie Deri, who served time for fraud – although he does not disqualify the Shas party per se.
The other newcomer, Naftali Bennett, head of Jewish Home (12 seats), has so far posted a single demand for the Religious Affairs portfolio.
Picking his way towards a viable government through the first thickets, Netanyahu has agreed to grant the Future party three portfolios at least – Internal Security or Home Front Security for former Shin Bet director and businessman Yacov Peri; Education for Rabbi Shay Firon; and one of three ministries, Interior, Housing or Trade and Industry, to former Herzliya Mayor Ms Yael German.
Dismayed by the weight of Lapid’s demands, senior Likud officers were heard grumbling Thursday night, Jan. 24: “Anyone would think Yesh Atid had won 61 seats – not 19.” He may think he is indispensible,” said another. “But let’s remind him that Netanyahu managed to run the government quite comfortably for four years against an opposition party of 28 lawmakers. We don’t want to end up with a narrow-based government, but if Lapid pushes us too far, we won’t take fright because we do have other options.”
However, at this early stage of the horse-trading for coalition partners, Netanyahu is being pushed by pressure from Lapid to keep the Defense portfolio in his own hands, having decided not to award it to former chief of staff and senior minister Moshe Yaalon.
This confronts him with the double dilemma of being short of suitable candidates for the two top cabinet posts – defense and treasury. The word going around Likud is that Netanyahu would like to keep overall responsibility for the treasury and the conduct of the national economy for himself and let the finance ministry be administered by a junior minister.
But he can’t shoulder responsibility for both defense and treasury himself.
Lapid’s veto against Deri is another complication for Netanyahu, because it threatens to put Deri’s party Shas out of the running for government.
Bennett’s demand for the Religious Affairs ministry as a precondition for his party to join the new government puts the cat among the chickens. His party put both secular and religious candidates on its slate and ran on a ticket calling for a national debate to revitalize and reform Jewish tenets and bring them up to date with modern times.
His platform is a red flag for the powerful rabbinical establishments inside and outside the political mainstream. If he gets the religious ministry, the two ultra-religious parties will boycott the new government and build a strong front to fight the Bennett reforms.
At the other end of the political spectrum, Labor (which won a disappointing 15 seats) is in high commotion. Its leader, Shelly Yacimovitch, stands by her vow to keep her party out of the Netanyahu coalition and fight his economic and social policies tooth and nail from the opposition - thereby triggering a revolt against her leadership.
She and the party agree to support any moves to revive peace talks with the Palestinians, but, according to debkafile’s sources, at least three of Yacimovitch’s stalwarts - Yitzhak Herzog, Avishay Braverman and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, all former ministers, insist on her opening the door for them to join the government. So far she has stood up to them.

Rob Ford wins appeal, remains Toronto mayor
By Matthew Coutts
Toronto Mayor Rob Ford Controversial politician Rob Ford will remain the mayor of Toronto, after a three-judge divisional court panel rejected a previous court ruling.
A decision made public on Friday found that Justice Charles Hackland erred when he found that Ford breached the conflict of interest act when he debated and voted on a motion to force him to pay back $3,150 in questionable he collected for his private charity.
The ruling, posted online, states:
[W]e conclude that the application judge erred in finding that Mr. Ford contravened the MCIA. Accordingly, we would allow the appeal.
Ford told reporters on Thursday that he had been looking forward to learning the court’s decision.
"I believe in the judicial system and let’s hope for the best," Ford told reporters, according to CBC News.
[ Related: Toronto Mayor Rob Ford to learn fate in conflict appeal ]
The complaint was originally brought forward by private citizen Paul Magder and championed by seasoned litigator Clayton Ruby last year in connection to a series of donations collected for Ford's personal charity beginning in 2009, while Ford was a city councillor.
The debate stemmed from $3,150 in donations to Ford's football foundation that he raised by using city letterhead and, allegedly, his clout as a city councillor. The city's integrity commissioner found the money to have been collected inappropriately and ordered Ford to repay it.
Hackland ruled that Ford's decision to participate in a debate, then as mayor, over whether he should be forced to pay back that money constituted a conflict of interest punishable by expulsion from city hall.
[ Related: Toronto City Hall plays waiting game on Rob Ford verdict ]
Ford’s phoenix-like resurrection put an interesting twist on politics at city hall.
There will be a certain amount of boot-licking now that he is out of the fire, and perhaps some level of conciliation on the part of the mayor.
Ford still faces a case into improper spending during his 2010 mayoral campaign, which could yet see him thrown from office. The Toronto Star reports that the audit into his finances is expected next week.
Friday’s ruling certainly accomplished one thing: it set city hall on a course to stability, something that has been perceived to be lacking for some time.

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