LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 22/2013

Bible Quotation for today/
 John 15/09-16: "Even as the Father has loved me, I also have loved you. Remain in my love.  If you keep my commandments, you will remain in my love; even as I have kept my Father’s commandments, and remain in his love.  I have spoken these things to you, that my joy may remain in you, and that your joy may be made full.  “This is my commandment, that you love one another, even as I have loved you.  Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends.  You are my friends, if you do whatever I command you.  No longer do I call you servants, for the servant doesn’t know what his lord does. But I have called you friends, for everything that I heard from my Father, I have made known to you.  You didn’t choose me, but I chose you, and appointed you, that you should go and bear fruit, and that your fruit should remain; that whatever you will ask of the Father in my name, he may give it to you

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
 Iran's Revolutionary Guard/By: Steven O’Hern/Asharq Alawsat/January 22/13
The Assadi Basij/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 22/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 22/13
 Insight: Mystery Canadian coordinated Algeria gas field attack, premier says

Algeria says 37 foreigners die in siege led by Canadian
Algeria Hostage Crisis Death Toll Rises
French, Malian troops recapture key frontline towns

Unpublished election poll: Likud 37+, Labor 15 -, Bennett-Lapid level at 14
 Israeli
Assad fall won’t mean Hezbollah disarmament: Geagea
Electoral subcommittee faces crucial week: Berri
PSP to declare clear stance on electoral law: Jumblatt
Charbel says civil marriage not legally approved
Mikati discusses refugees with Abbas and Arabi
 Electoral Subcommittee Members Admit Differences Have Remained Wide
 Jumblat: Some Sides are Mistaken in Believing They Can Eliminate the Other in the Elections
Sleiman puts civil marriage back on table
Karami for government action to control arms
Companies lining up to buy Lebanon’s gas data
Bank Audi net profits up 5 percent
Banks to inject $1.45 billion in Lebanese market
 Aoun: Israel Unable to Stage War against Iran
A new Lebanon, Civil marriage
 Daring Prison Break Thwarted in Roumieh
 Phalange: No for Postponing Elections, 1960 Electoral Law, Cabinet's Proposal
 Sami Gemayel Meets Berri: Only 1960 Law Put to Rest, Joint Committees to Convene Next Week
Airstrike kills at least 7 near Syrian capital
Power outage hits Damascus, south Syria
Power outage hits Damascus, southern Syria
Moscow to Send Planes to Beirut to Evacuate Russians from Syria
NATO Patriot missiles arrive in Turkey to counter Syria risks
Jordan PM says election heralds wider reforms
 Obama repeats oath to begin 2nd term
Obama looks "to finish what we started" as 2nd term beginsBlast, drones kill 16 al Qaeda-linked militants in Yemen
Disillusioned, record number of Arabs to shun Israel vote
Arab League urges Arab Israelis to vote 'in droves'
Part of courthouse burnt in Egypt clashes

Insight: Mystery Canadian coordinated Algeria gas field attack, premier says
By Lamine Chikhi | Reuters –
ALGIERS (Reuters) - The Islamist attack on the sprawling desert gas complex in southern Algeria that triggered one of the worst hostage crises in years was conceived in Mali and coordinated by a mystery Canadian named only as Chedad, the Algerian prime minister said.
Five days after about 40 jihadist fighters raided the facility not far from the Libyan border and Algeria responded with a full-on military operation to kill or capture them, a picture of what happened is emerging.
While some hostages escaped in the early stages of the crisis, hopes soon faded for dozens of others once the army decided to take on the raiders.
Workers from the United States, Britain, France, Japan, Romania, Norway and the Philippines were either dead or missing, with the overall death toll among hostages and militants put at 67 and potentially rising by up to five.
Those who escaped had harrowing tales to tell. One Briton recounted how the attackers had strapped Semtex plastic explosive around his neck, bound his hands and taped his mouth. Another man hid for more than a day and a half under his bed as jihadist fighters searched the workers' residential complex.
Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal said the plot had been hatched in war-ravaged Mali and the attackers had traveled through Niger and Libya before slipping into Algeria.
The jihadists were said to come from Egypt, Mauritania, Niger, Tunisia, Mali, Algeria and, in one case, from Canada. The Canadian, identified initially as Chedad, was coordinating the raiders, Sellal said.
The In Amenas gas plant probably felt impregnable to those who worked there - fenced in, hundreds of miles from anywhere and with the Algerian army patrolling its desert approaches.
That was a mirage. Libya, an ex-police state turned arms bazaar and now open for jihad, lies just 50 miles away.
At least some of the Islamist guerrillas who stormed in before dawn on Wednesday had driven along smugglers' tracks across the Libyan border, an Algerian security official told Reuters, citing evidence from mobile phones traced to the militants.
NINE TOYOTAS
The militants arrived in nine Toyotas with Libyan plates and painted in the colors of Sonatrach, the Algerian oil and gas company that has a share in the plant, according to the Algerian daily El Khabar.
The ease with which they entered the fortified housing compound and nearby natural gas plant left Algerians in little doubt the gunmen had allies among people at the site.
"They had local cooperation, I'm sure, maybe from drivers or security guards, who helped the terrorists get into the base," was the immediate reaction of Anis Rahmani, editor of Algeria's Ennahar newspaper and a writer on security issues who said he was briefed by officials.
Sellal confirmed that a driver who had formerly worked at the plant had been supplying information to the raiders.
Locally hired workers who escaped told Reuters of seeing the gunmen moving around the facility with confidence, apparently familiar with its layout and well prepared.
The militants said they launched the raid to halt French military intervention in neighboring Mali, which began earlier this month, however the link is not yet clear.
It is possible the attack would have happened anyway, or that the French military operation provided a trigger to carry out an attack based on preparations made earlier.
First word of trouble came crackling over a walkie-talkie to the communications room at In Amenas, where a 27-year-old radio operator called Azedine logged a contact with a bus driver who, at 5:45 a.m. (0445 GMT), left to take some foreigners to the airstrip at the town of In Amenas, some 50 km (30 miles) away.
"Moments after the bus left, I heard shooting, a lot of shooting, and then nothing," Azedine told Reuters on Friday.
BUS SKIRMISH
Two people, one British and one Algerian, were killed on two buses heading for the airport. The Briton was identified as a Gulf war veteran who had been in the French Foreign Legion and was working for a security company.
Sellal said the raiders planned to seize the foreign passengers, but came under fire from soldiers guarding them.
It is not clear whether that incident was part of the plan that secured the militants access to the compound. Almost immediately after the bus skirmish, they were inside, in at least three vehicles.
They shot an Algerian guard but he was able to raise the alarm before dying, Sellal said.
People who have worked at the site say there was normally an overnight curfew, leaving it unclear how the gunmen were able to get so close before being challenged. Their initial approach may have been well off the main roads.
Freed hostages spoke of frightened people staying in their offices or hiding in their dormitories.
Azedine saw a gunman put on the ID badge of a French supervisor who had been shot dead.
A French catering firm employee spent 40 hours cowering alone under his bed, terrified he would be killed.
Alexandre Berceaux said he had survived by staying in his room away from other foreigners, hidden behind a barricade of wooden planks and having Algerian colleagues sneak him food and water.
"I was completely isolated ... I was afraid. I could see myself already ending up in a wooden box," Berceaux said in a radio interview.
Rapidly the area was surrounded by heavily armed Algerian troops, with tanks, armored vehicles and helicopter gunships from a nearby military base. Sellal said there had been an attempt to negotiate but it had collapsed over the hostage-takers' demands.
SMUGGLERS' TRAILS
People who know the site, operated by Britain's BP and Statoil of Norway along with Algeria's Sonatrach, said a barracks housing several hundred soldiers lies along the three km (two miles) of road separating the accommodation compound from the industrial plant. A former senior Algerian government official said guards appeared to have been caught napping: "They have all kinds of equipment, detailed surveillance, cameras," he said. "They were caught maybe at the right time, at five in the morning."But he also acknowledged the militants may have had help among the local workforce: "Out of 700 Algerians, I am sure they will find a couple who will cooperate. It always happens." Militant leaders like Taher Ben Cheneb, said by officials to have been one of the commanders of the operation and to have been killed on Thursday, have stoked resentment among southerners at the way foreigners and northerners dominate the better paid jobs in the oil fields. Ben Cheneb, described as a high school maths teacher in his 50s, led the Movement of the Islamic Youth in the South. Security expert Rahmani said he joined forces for this operation with followers of Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a veteran of Afghan wars and a leading figure in Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) who recently formed a new group named Mulathameen.
Belmokhtar, the overall commander but not present during the attack, claimed responsibility on behalf of al Qaeda for a raid he called a "blessed operation".
While Ben Cheneb's group appeared to have moved on In Amenas from a base inside Algeria, Rahmani said, another group led by Abu El Bara appeared to have come in from Libya.
ONE-EYED JACK
The group's field commander was a veteran fighter from Niger called Abdul Rahman al-Nigeri, Mauritanian media reported. He led his men into the gas plant, where he is believed to have been killed, while Abu El Bara died at the residential complex. Noting the one-eyed Belmokhtar's reputation as a cigarette smuggler as well as a holy warrior - locals call him "Mister Marlboro" - Rahmani added: "They use the same back roads as the smugglers. You need a perfect knowledge of the Sahara to do it. Canadian diplomat Robert Fowler, who was captured by Belmokhtar in Niger in 2008 and released after four months, nicknamed him "Jack" so as to be able to discuss him privately with fellow captives. Belmokhtar in turn referred to his prisoners as apostates and infidels.
More than a decade after Algeria's civil war killed some 200,000 people, Islamist fighters roam the sandy wastes of Africa's biggest country, mixing smuggling and kidnapping for ransom with opposition to the political establishment that has ruled in Algiers since French colonists left half a century ago.
These groups have been energized by the return of heavily armed ethnic Tuaregs and others from Libya, where they fought as mercenaries for Muammar Gaddafi until his overthrow in 2011. The new Libyan authorities are struggling to control their own deep south and it provides a launchpad for raids across the frontier.
ARMY ASSAULT
While security forces seek to impose control, the tracts of sand are vast, borders among the half dozen countries around the desert are unmarked, and the big money that can be made from illicit trade or kidnapping tourists and Western engineers can be used to buy favors from ill-paid officials.
Al Qaeda says it is fighting for a Muslim caliphate that transcends artificial borders in the Maghreb set by colonial powers.
Once inside the facility, militants, including bearded, ragged fighters and others in more urban dress, herded groups of Westerners together. Hundreds of Algerians were guarded more loosely. One Algerian worker told Reuters the gunmen said they were only interested in killing "Christians and infidels".
Algeria told Western governments, which voiced dismay at the storming of the facility on Thursday, that troops moved in only because guerrillas were trying to leave with hostages, hoping to reach Mali.
The captors loaded hostages into a convoy. Special forces backed by helicopters moved in around noon, some 30 hours after the plant was seized.
In what appears to have been the deadliest part of the siege, as described by the family of Irish survivor Stephen McFaul, government forces bombed the convoy, blasting apart four vehicles full of hostages. McFaul was in a fifth truck which crashed. He dashed for his life and escaped, and believes all those in the other vehicles were killed.
McFaul told how the attackers had turned him into a human bomb, strapping Semtex around his neck.
Another Briton, Garry Barlow, called his wife from within the site during the attack and said: "I'm sat here at my desk with Semtex strapped to my chest."
During Thursday, most of the hundreds of people at the site were able to flee, some of them Westerners posing as Algerians.
"We cut the wire with clippers and ran for it, all together, about 50 of us with the three foreigners," one man was quoted as saying by The Times.
By Friday night, it remained unclear how many of the gunmen and their hostages were still in the facility.
The operation at the larger, residential compound was over and troops were now surrounding the industrial site, where Nigeri and his men were reported to be holding a group of hostages.
But this left Western governments and intelligence officials, long used to difficult relations with Algeria which is proud of its sovereignty, desperate for hard facts about the fate of their nationals.
Western capitals seemed to be in the dark when the dramatic and bloody final assault came on Saturday morning.
Algerian soldiers shot dead 11 gunmen who had executed seven foreign hostages, according to the state news agency. The militants were then found to have booby-trapped the gas complex with explosives, which the army had to defuse. The operation was over, authorities said, but mopping up went on for hours, with dozens more bodies found and many questions still to be answered.
(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler and Jessica Donati in London, Writing by Alastair Macdonald and; Giles Elgood, editing by Peter Millership)

Westerners among Algerian plant attack terrorists
By Alsheikh Mohammed/Nouakchott/ Algiers, Asharq Al-Awsat – A Canadian citizen was the coordinator of the terrorist attack on a gas plant in In Amenas (southeast of Algiers), Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal revealed on Monday. "A Canadian was among the militants. He was coordinating the attack," Sellal told a news conference in Algiers. Furthermore, a spokesman for the ‘Signatories in Blood’ group, which has claimed responsibility for the attack, has described the operation as “a success by all standards.” In a telephone interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Hassan Walid Khalil said that “Algerian fighter jets bombed the buses we were using to transport 36 hostages from the residential compound to the factory. There were no survivors except for two of our brothers and a Japanese hostage, who managed to reach the factory on foot.” Walid Khalil further indicated that the initial attack on the gas plant was carried out by “a group of forty fighters, including some of our Western brothers”. Meanwhile, the Algerian government said yesterday that the militants killed in the attack were of various nationalities. Algeria’s state news agency APS quoted Mohammed Said, Algeria's communications minister, as saying that they were “nationals of Arab and African countries and of non-African countries”, without providing further details. Walid Khalil added that “the militants split into two groups: One took control of the factory, the other took control of the residential compound. The latter was bombarded by the Algerian army while attempting to join up with the first group, because the factory was more defendable.”
Asked whether there was any possibility of peacefully resolving the situation, the group’s spokesman said “we wanted to resolve the issue at the plant, because transferring the hostages and getting them to Ozoad (northern Mali) was impossible, and we did not want to do that.” He added, “An Algerian intelligence general contacted us and we expressed our readiness for dialogue but he refused, opting for the use of force instead.”
Mokhtar Belmokhtar, well known in the Sahel region by the nickname “Mr. Marlboro”, announced the establishment of the “Signatories in Blood” group in December 2012. He stated then that the goal was to punish those participating in or planning a war against the armed Islamist groups of northern Mali. In his announcement of the group’s formation, Belmokhtar directed his speech towards the countries of the region, saying, “We will respond forcefully [to all attackers]; we promise we will follow you to your homes and you will feel pain and we will attack your interests”.
The formation of the ‘Signatories in Blood’ group came after sharp differences emerged between the leaders of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), leading to Belmokhtar splitting from the organization several months ago and converging with the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, which controls the region of Gao in northern Mali. The targeting of the gas plant in In Amenas was the first operation undertaken by ‘Signatories in Blood’, following France’s decision to launch a military operation against armed Islamic groups that had attempted to seize control of cities in southern Mali on 10 January 2013.
Yesterday, the Mauritanian website ‘Sahara Media’ posted a video recording of Belmokhtar, in which he said: “We in Al-Qaeda announce this blessed operation.” Here he was keen to stress that the In Amenas attack was conducted by the Al-Qaeda ‘mother organization’, rather than AQIM. Belmokhtar also emphasized the differences between him and the AQIM leadership through the initial demands he put forward, including the release of Omar Abdel-Rahman and Aafia Siddiqui, both being detained in the US, in exchange for the release of all US hostages.
Observers believe that the video published by Sahara Media, a website affiliated to the armed groups of the Sahel region, was recorded on Thursday 11 January, coinciding with the beginning of the Algerian army’s assault on the gas plant to secure the release of the Western and Algerian hostages. In the video Belmokhtar expressed his willingness to negotiate with Western governments and the Algerian regime in order to reach a solution and stop the military operations in Mali against armed Islamic groups.

Assad fall won’t mean Hezbollah disarmament: Geagea
January 21, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The fall of Syria’s Assad regime would not lead to the disarmament of Hezbollah, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Sunday evening.
“Hezbollah considers arms as its key power and will become more committed to it after the regime in Syria falls and will work on enhancing it further,” said Geagea in an interview to Egyptian Capital Broadcast Center (CBC) television channel. According to Geagea, Syria serves only as a path for Hezbollah to reach its goals and the party will look for other channels when the Assad regime is brought down.
“Syria is no more than a passageway for Hezbollah and the party has currently replaced this channel. However, postponing its project doesn’t necessarily mean giving up on its arms,” said Geagea.
Hezbollah has supported the Assad regime in its fight against rebels ever since the uprising broke out in March 2011. Media reports have also said the party has sent fighters to Syria, an accusation which Hezbollah has repeatedly denied. Geagea also said that the March 8 camp is betting on the continuation of the regime in Syria. “A large number of Lebanese, affiliated with the March 8 team, are in denial and are still hoping for Assad’s victory,” said Geagea. The LF leader also addressed the influx of Syrian refugees into the country and called on the Arab League to find a solution to the case. “The Arab League should find a solution to the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon because their influx surpasses Lebanon’s ability to handle them,” said Geagea. The latest figures of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees put the official number of Syrian refugees in the country at over 212,000. Lebanon has appealed for the help of the international and Arab community in the refugees’ file saying that the Lebanese government cannot afford to support the rising number of Syrians coming to the country. Arab foreign ministers held a meeting in Cairo earlier in January to discuss the Syrian refugee crisis and agreed to send a team to Lebanon to assess the situation of Syrian refugees on the ground.

 

Electoral Subcommittee Members Admit Differences Have Remained Wide
Naharnet/Rival lawmakers revealed on Monday that the gap on an electoral draft-law has remained wide despite four days of consultations with their leaderships aimed at facilitating their task of reaching common ground.
The chairman of a parliamentary subcommittee tasked with agreeing on a draft-law, MP Robert Ghanem, said following a morning session that the MPs came back with answers on a proposal to combine a winner-takes-all system with proportionality.
The lawmakers from the March 8 majority alliance, the March 14 opposition and the centrist Progressive Socialist Party had taken a four-day break to discuss the proposal with their leaderships and come back with answers.
“The stances of each party on an electoral law are already known but the objective of the subcommittee is to reach consensus in that regard,” Ghanem told reporters in parliament after the morning session ended.
“I hope that we would agree on a law that guarantees a fair representation to all,” he said, adding another session would be held in the afternoon to continue the deliberations.
But several members of the subcommittee expressed pessimism after the differences between them remained.
The opposition's al-Mustaqbal MP Ahmed Fatfat said “discussions continued through a serious and open dialogue on how we could find common ground.”
But he reiterated the rejection of proportionality and said his party was prone to the winner-takes-all system.
MP Serge Torsarkissian, who also represents al-Mustaqbal in the subcommittee, blamed earlier in the day the government for the failure to agree on a draft-law.
“The cabinet should have proposed a draft-law that has consensus to avoid the controversy that erupted over the electoral law,” Torsarkissian told Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3).
Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan, also from the March 14 opposition, hoped the subcommittee would make some achievements in the coming two days.
But he told reporters that some members of the subcommittee are trying to propose an increase in the percentage of MPs elected through a winner-takes-all system while others want the number of candidates elected through the proportional system to be higher.
Hizbullah MP Ali Fayyad indirectly slammed al-Mustaqbal, saying those fearing proportionality are aware that their political power would be exposed.
“We are keen on proportionality and the improvement of the conditions that lead to the election of Christian MPs,” he told reporters.
Fayyad also confirmed that he vetoed a proposal of having 128 districts, saying there wasn't enough time to discuss such a proposal a few months before the elections.
His ally Free Patriotic Movement MP Alain Aoun from the March 8 alliance confirmed that the gap between the subcommittee members was huge.
“It became clear through the discussions that the hybrid system will not be the solution so we should go to another stage or we should hold onto the Orthodox Gathering proposal,” he said.
MP Akram Shehayyeb, from the centrist Progressive Socialist Party, said “not a single party is ready to hand over power to the other.”
“The electoral law is part of the bigger problem,” he said adding that the cause of the differences among them was not technical but political.
“Until now the gap between the different parties is huge,” he said reiterating that agreement on administrative decentralization and the formation of a senate would set the stage for eliminating differences among the rival factions.
MP Ali Bazzi from Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal movement was the most optimistic however, saying “unlike what we've heard, there was enough responsibility and seriousness” in the meeting of the subcommittee.
“There will be more consultations .. .We are here to reach a solution and not to waste time,” he said.
Al-Mustaqbal, the PSP and March 14 independent Christian politicians have rejected the so-called Orthodox Gathering proposal that envisages a single district and calls for each sect to vote for its own MPs in a proportional system.
The proposal had garnered the support of the four major Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement and the Marada movement from the March 8 majority, and the opposition's Phalange party and the Lebanese Forces.
Two other proposals include a government bill that divides Lebanon into 13 districts based on a proportional representation system and a draft-law suggested by the March 14 Christian parties that seeks to divide Lebanon into 50 small-sized districts based on a winner-takes-all system.

 

Jumblat: Some Sides are Mistaken in Believing They Can Eliminate the Other in the Elections
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat renewed on Monday his rejection of the Orthodox Gathering parliamentary electoral law, revealing that the party will present its position on the electoral law discussions.
He said in his weekly editorial in the PSP-affiliated al-Anbaa website: “Some sides are mistaken in believing that they can eliminate the other in the parliamentary elections.”
“The elections are just a phase and we must return to dialogue and the central principles proposed by President Michel Suleiman, starting with the national defense strategy,” he added.
Moreover, the MP suggested that a national unity government be formed after the elections, which are scheduled for June.
The Orthodox Gathering proposal, which calls for each sect to elect its own lawmakers, has created divisions among various political factions in Lebanon.
A Christian four-party committee, comprised of the Phalange Party, Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces, and Marada Movement, has advocated the law.
Suleiman, Prime Minister Najib Miqati, Jumblat, the Mustaqbal Movement, and independent MPs of the March 14 camp all rejected the proposal.
Jumblat had said earlier in January that the proposal “would lead to extremism and the isolation of sects,” as well as jeopardize coexistence and the Taef accord.
Commenting on Suleiman's vocal support for civil marriage in Lebanon, Jumblat lauded his “progressive thinking,” hoping that this measure will mark the beginning of the tearing down of sectarian barriers.
“This will help pave the way for the implementation of the Taef Accord and the establishment of a senate in Lebanon as the proper representative for different Lebanese factions,” he added.
“The senate will offer an alternative to the backward thinking that was demonstrated in the so-called Orthodox Gathering proposal or various televised debates that are reminiscent of the black days of the past,” he stated.
“Isn't it better to bolster diversity and coexistence instead of division?” the MP asked.
He suggested that various parties return to the 1936 constitution devised under the French mandate over Lebanon, “seeing as it offers more progressive ideas that are better than the ones being presented today.”
“If only politicians would halt their heated rhetoric in favor of catering to the people, who have fruitlessly waited for power-generating vessels that appear to be taking a world cruise across the five continents ahead of arriving at Lebanon's shores,” Jumblat remarked sarcastically.
“Even if the ships do arrive and end the darkness, who will guarantee that they can illuminate the dark minds that issued indirect and questionable threats against the Special Tribunal for Lebanon?” he wondered.
He made his statement in reference to the recent publication of a list of names of witnesses linked to the STL trial that is set for March.
The development sparked an outcry by March 14 officials who accused the publishers of jeopardizing the lives of the witnesses.


PSP to declare clear stance on electoral law: Jumblatt
January 21, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt said his party will make its position on the electoral law reform clear. “The PSP will declare a clear stance on the electoral law and it is examining a number of electoral formulas for this purpose,” said Jumblatt in his weekly stance published by PSP-affiliated Al-Anbaa website Monday. Jumblatt’s PSP has rejected an electoral proposal agreed upon by the country’s four major Christian parties. The Orthodox proposal, which stipulates each sect elects its own lawmakers under a system of proportional representation with Lebanon as a single district, was also rejected by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and a number of independent Christians. Jumblatt also said that the elections cannot be used as a means for rival parties to eliminate each other and that all parties will eventually have to resume communication among each other. “Some sides are mistaken in believing that they can eliminate the other in the parliamentary elections,” said the PSP leader. “The elections are just a phase and we must return to Dialogue and the central principles proposed by President Michel Sleiman,” said Jumblatt. Efforts by Sleiman to resume National Dialogue have been met with rejection from the opposition which has set the resignation of Mikati as a precondition to resume the all-party-talks. Their decision was reached following the assassination of a senior intelligence official in the country, Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan.

Mikati discusses refugee situation with Abbas and Elaraby
January 21, 2013 /The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby said Sunday there wasn’t the slightest hope that a positive development would occur to resolve the Syrian crisis. Speaking following a meeting in Saudi Arabia with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Elaraby said there was great concern over the crisis. Commenting on the refugees’ issue, Elaraby said refugee aid would be decided at the donor countries conference in Kuwait at the end of the month. Mikati also held discussions with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In a statement released by Mikati’s office, Abbas said after the meeting: “We are aware that many Palestinian refugees have been displaced from Syria to Lebanon and when the crisis reaches a resolution they should go back.”

Aoun: Israel Unable to Stage War against Iran
TEHRAN (FNA)- Lebanon's Free Patriotic Movement Leader Michel Aoun downplayed the Zionist regime's war rhetoric against Tehran, and said Israel is not able to attack Iran. "Iran is a highly inaccessible target for the Zionist regime and the regime cannot enter a war against Iran," Aoun said in an interview with Iran-based Arabic-language al-Alam TV network. "Iran enjoys high military power and capabilities," he added.
Aoun also referred to the Israeli and US-backed western sanctions against Iran, and said, "The country is able to resist against any extent of sanctions." His remarks came as Israel and its close ally the United States have recently intensified their war rhetoric against Iran. The two arch foes of the Islamic Republic accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, while they have never presented any corroborative document to substantiate their allegations. Both Washington and Tel Aviv possess advanced weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear warheads. Iran vehemently denies the charges, insisting that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Tehran stresses that the country has always pursued a civilian path to provide power to the growing number of Iranian population, whose fossil fuel would eventually run dry. Iran has, in return, warned that it would target Israel and its worldwide interests in case it comes under attack by the Tel Aviv. The United States has long stressed that military action is a main option for the White House to deter Iran's progress in the field of nuclear technology.
Iran has warned that in case of an attack by either the US or Israel, it will target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
An estimated 40 percent of the world's oil supply passes through the waterway.

A new Lebanon, Civil marriage
January 21, 2013/The Daily Star
Following news of the first civil marriage in Lebanon, President Michel Sleiman announced his full backing of a change in the law Sunday, two moves which have created waves of support for the phenomenon. These ripples must now grow to a tsunami, allowing a reform of the law to pass. Sleiman’s admirable stance follows a proposal by former President Elias Hrawi in 1998 which was blocked by religious authorities. Controlling, as they do, the life of a Lebanese citizen from birth to death, they are the benefactors of all the weddings, communions or divorces that take place under their name. If this issue is now moved from the sphere of social media to actual committee meetings in Parliament, it will no doubt face such objections again from those religious institutions which see civil marriage as a threat to their levels of control and their bank balances.
Therefore, it is essential that all those politicians and leaders who have claimed to support civil marriage at sporadic moments over the years, must now stand by their word and speak out, loudly. Indeed all such people, from civil society activists to individuals, must now join efforts to work for the implementation of this law. There are so many hypocrisies evident in the current system, not least that civil marriages conducted abroad are recognized in Lebanon, but also in the haphazard system of divorce for those who have married in a religious ceremony, with privilege and connections often the most reliable route to ending a Christian marriage.
Civil marriage would not be compulsory, and religious weddings still allowed. At a time when talk of national unity is being discussed daily, with rival politicians each claiming his party’s electoral law proposal would be the most effective at bringing such unity about, it seems clearer now more than ever that civil marriage is the quickest route to coexistence. As the law stands it is currently so much easier to marry someone from within one’s own sect, rather than marrying abroad or converting. The existing state of affairs has undoubtedly contributed to the feelings of isolation experienced by sects, and the division of the population along religious lines.
As cited by the couple who married in a non-religious ceremony, civil marriage should also be guaranteed by the Constitution, which promises equality between all citizens and the protection of their human rights.
Religion has an important role to play in society. But this role should no longer be intertwined with that of the state, or with people’s emotions. Fear of a complicated conversion process or an expensive foreign civil marriage should no longer be an obstacle when two Lebanese of different sects fall in love. If passed now, the law would help create a different Lebanon for the children of today, one in which sectarianism will be a thing of the past.

Charbel says civil marriage not legally approved
January 21, 2013 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The recent civil marriage of a young Lebanese couple was not legally approved, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said in remarks published Monday.
“It is not enough for Khouloud [Succariyeh] and Nidal [Darwish] to get married in order for civil marriage to be officiated in Lebanon,” said Charbel, who spoke to An-Nahar. The topic was put in the spotlight recently when a local news outlet reported on the civil marriage in November last year between Succariyeh and Darwish, based on an interpretation of Decree 60 from 1936, which their lawyer says allows for individuals who remove their sect from their ID to marry outside religious institutions. Charbel said that he personally supports the adoption of civil marriage in the country. However, he added that the marriage of the young couple cannot be officiated by the Interior Ministry. Before getting married, Sukkariyeh and Darwish decided to delete mention of their sects from their personal status records, an option made legal by a decree passed in 2008 by then Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud. According to Charbel, the adoption of civil marriage in Lebanon requires a detailed law that regulates the relationship between the couple before, during and after marriage.
“For such a law to be adopted in Parliament, it should deeply tackle the rights of the couple and should deal with divorce, inheritance and other issues,” said Charbel.
Charbel added that a law proposing optional civil marriage drafted by former President Elias Hrawi in 1998 was never referred to Parliament. “The draft law remained in the drawers of the Cabinet back then and was not referred to the Parliament,” said the minister. The bill drafted by Hrawi was approved by the Cabinet only to be shelved due to opposition from then Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and many of the country’s religious authorities.
President Michel Sleiman said Monday via his Twitter account that he supports endorsing civil marriage in Lebanon. Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt Tuesday hailed Sleiman’s stance and said the adoption of civil marriage should be a step to break the sectarian barriers in the country. Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan also said he supports the adoption of civil marriage in the country. “I praise the two citizens for having the courage to do what no official has dared to do,” Adwan told reporters at Parliament. “I want to tell them that we support you and we are ready to move things at the level of Parliament,” he added.

NATO Patriot missiles arrive in Turkey to counter Syria risks
January 21, 2013/By Jonathon Burch/Daily Star
ISKENDERUN, Turkey: The first of six NATO Patriot missile batteries intended to protect Turkey from a potential Syrian attack arrived by ship from Germany on Monday, drawing a small but noisy protest from nationalist and leftist demonstrators. Dozens of camouflaged German military vehicles carrying the batteries disembarked at the Mediterranean port of Iskenderun. About 150 Turkish Communist Party supporters fired pink smoke grenades and burned an American flag at a port entrance. Germany, the Netherlands and the United States are each sending two Patriot missile batteries and up to 400 troops to Turkey after Ankara asked for NATO's help to bolster security along its 900-km (560-mile) border with Syria. Damascus has called the move "provocative", in part because Turkey's missile request could be seen as a first step toward implementing a no-fly zone over Syrian airspace. The frontier has become a flashpoint in the 22-month insurgency against President Bashar al-Assad, with Syrian government shells frequently landing inside Turkish territory, drawing a response in kind from Ankara's military. "This mission is purely defensive," said Polish Army Lieutenant Colonel Dariusz Kacperczyk, NATO spokesman for the Patriot deployment. "It is to deter any possible threat coming from missiles to the Turkish population and territory." The batteries will be fully operational by the beginning of February and will protect more than 3.5 million people living in the region, he said.
Turkey has been one of Assad's fiercest critics, leading calls for international intervention and providing shelter for more than 150,000 Syrian refugees. Despite wariness over a possibly more complex Turkish involvement in the conflict, there has only been small-scale opposition to the NATO deployment.
"Yankee go home!", "Murderer America, get out of the Middle East!", chanted a crowd of nationalists, some waving Turkish flags, at a later protest in the centre of Iskenderun.
"Iskenderun port will become NATO's grave", said a placard held by one in the hundreds-strong crowd. Riot police, backed by armoured water cannon vehicles, looked on from a distance.
Iran and Russia, which have supported Syria throughout the uprising, have criticised NATO's decision, saying the Patriot deployment would intensify a conflict that most foreign governments have been reluctant to get sucked into. Turkey and NATO have strongly denied the Patriot missiles are a precursor to a no-fly zone that Syrian rebels have been requesting to help them hold territory against a government with overwhelming firepower from the air. Tensions have increased in recent weeks after NATO said it had detected launches of short-range ballistic missiles inside Syria, several of which have landed close to the Turkish border. Turkey has scrambled war planes along the frontier, fanning fears the war could spread and further destablise the region.
The German Patriot batteries, whose deployment was approved by NATO in early December at Turkey's request, will travel by road convoy from Iskenderun to be deployed around the city of Kahramanmaras, some 100 km (62 miles) from the Syrian border. The Dutch missiles, which are expected to arrive by ship in Iskenderun on Tuesday, will be stationed further to the west outside the city of Adana, about 120 km from Syria.
The U.S. missile batteries are expected to arrive later this month and will be deployed further to the east in Gaziantep, which is about 60 km from the frontier.
Advance troops as well as equipment from all three NATO countries had already begun arriving by air in preparation but Monday's delivery marks the first of the actual missile batteries to arrive on Turkish soil.

Obama looks "to finish what we started" as 2nd term begins
January 21, 2013/By John Whitesides/Daily Star
WASHINGTON: Four years after making history by becoming the first African-American president, Barack Obama will kick off his second term on Monday with a scaled-back inauguration that reflects the tempered expectations for his next four years in office.
Lingering high unemployment, bitter political battles and a divisive re-election campaign have tempered the mood of optimism and hope that infused Obama's 2009 inauguration after he was swept into office on a mantle of hope and change.
This time, Obama's inauguration will feature smaller crowds and fewer inaugural balls and parties to match the more subdued tenor of the times.
But Obama, seeking to build on momentum from his decisive re-election on Nov. 6, will lay out a vision for the next four years in his inauguration speech while trumpeting several notable first-term achievements, including a healthcare overhaul, ending the war in Iraq and the killing of Osama bin Laden.
"We have a chance to finish what we started. Our work begins today. Let's go," Obama said in a pre-inauguration message on Twitter.
A second inauguration marks the latest rite of political passage for Obama, the Hawaiian-born son of a black father from Kenya and a white mother from Kansas. An electrifying speech at the 2004 Democratic convention as a little-known Illinois state legislator lifted him to the national stage, putting him on a rapid trajectory to the U.S. Senate and a few years later the White House.
But battles are now looming over budgets, gun control and immigration, with Republicans ready to oppose him at almost every turn.
When Obama raises his right hand to be sworn in by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts outside the U.S. Capitol at 11:55 a.m. ET (1655 GMT), it will be his second time taking the oath in 24 hours - but this time with tens of millions of people watching on television.
He had a private swearing-in on Sunday at the White House because of a constitutional requirement that the president be sworn in on Jan. 20. Rather than stage the full inauguration on a Sunday, the main public events were put off until Monday.
Obama and his family began the day worshipping at St. John's Episcopal Church across from the White House, an Inauguration Day tradition for U.S. presidents, before heading by motorcade to Capitol Hill.
He will take the oath again, in public, and then deliver his inaugural address from the Capitol's west front overlooking the National Mall, where a crowd of up to 700,000 was gathering to watch.
That is down significantly from the record 1.8 million people who jammed Washington in 2009 for Obama's first inauguration.
"We're a bit surprised by how few people are out here this morning. But that's fine - makes the crowds more manageable. The weather is delightful and we're happy to be here," said Kathy Reid, 61, from Waco, Texas.
As people streamed through the wintry cold to assemble on Capitol grounds, Washington was in security lockdown, with thousands of police and National Guard troops deployed, barricades up and Humvee military vehicles blocking major intersections.
Outside the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, an elaborate presidential viewing stand, encased in bullet-proof glass, awaited Obama and other VIPs to watch the inaugural parade.
Even though the atmosphere lacked the euphoria of Obama's first inauguration, many of his supporters celebrated through the night.
"Yes, I can sense the inauguration is not as big as last time, but there is nonetheless excitement," said Carrie` Solages, a New York state legislator, as she attended a pre-inaugural ball late on Sunday. "We are still here to be a part of history."
At the Hawaii State Society inaugural ball, dancers swung their hips to traditional songs, and some partygoers sported tuxedos with Hawaiian-print cummerbunds as they ate suckling pig.
INAUGURAL ADDRESS IS CENTERPIECE
The focal point of Monday's festivities will be Obama's inauguration address, which he will use to lay out in broad terms his goals for the next four years. But he will stay away from second-term policy specifics, saving that for his State of the Union speech to Congress on Feb. 12. aides said.
Obama arrives at his second inauguration on solid footing. He won an end-of-year fiscal battle against Republicans, whose poll numbers have continued to sag, and appears to have gotten them to back down, at least temporarily, from resisting an increase in the national debt ceiling.
But after a bitter election fight against Republican Mitt Romney, the daunting challenges facing Obama and his political battles with congressional Republicans have split public opinion about the prospects for the next four years.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week found 43 percent of Americans were optimistic about the next four years and 35 percent pessimistic, with 22 percent having a mixed opinion.
Obama's main political opponent in Congress, Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, attended a White House coffee before the ceremony, and then returned to the Capitol for the inaugural speech and a post-event lunch with the president and lawmakers.
The inauguration ceremony will include music - singers James Taylor and Kelly Clarkson will perform patriotic songs and Beyonce will sing the national anthem - and also feature Vice President Joe Biden taking the oath of office again after doing so already on Sunday.
Obama and his wife, Michelle, will join Biden and his wife, Jill, at the capital luncheon before the two couples take part in the inaugural parade down Pennsylvania Avenue from the Capitol to the White House.
Obama could get out of his limousine and walk part of the way to interact with the crowd, as have presidents in the last several inaugurals.
After watching the rest of the parade from a viewing stand in front of the White House, the Obamas will change and head to the two inaugural balls - an official ball and one for military personnel and their spouses.
That is a dramatic reduction in activities from 2009, when there were 10 official inaugural balls.
With the public ceremony falling on the national holiday honoring slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., Obama will be able to draw some historic parallels. While taking the oath, he will place his left hand on two Bibles - one once owned by Abraham Lincoln and the other by King.

Iraqi official says Saudi prisoners not abused
By Fahd al-Zayabi and Hamza Mustapha
Riyadh/Baghdad, Asharq Al-Awsat - A Saudi prisoner, who wishes to remain anonymous, informed Asharq Al-Awsat in a telephone interview from Iraq that Saudi prisoners have been subjected to what he described as “racist” abuse from prison guards. He claimed that the prisoners have fallen victim to recent political and sporting events, and called for officials from both the Saudi and Iraqi sides to move quickly to resolve their case.
The prisoner said, “Some of the guards beat and kicked us after the cup final between the UAE and Iraq”. The match was won by the UAE, who were subsequently crowned champions of the 21st Gulf Cup, and it was refereed by the Saudi Khalil Al Ghamdi.
The prisoner’s remarks are consistent with statements made by Thamer Al Belahid, chairman of the Commission of Saudi prisoners in Iraq, who announced yesterday that twenty Saudi prisoners experienced significant abuse inside Iraqi jails after the recent Gulf Cup final between the UAE and Iraq in Manama. He pointed out that the inmates received severe beatings and insults, in addition to other harsh punishments.
For their part, the Iraqi authorities denied that any Saudi prisoner had been subjected to torture or abuse in an Iraqi prison following the Gulf Cup final. An official spokesman for the Iraqi interior ministry, Lt. Col. Saad Maan Ibrahim, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “such reports are completely untrue and neither logical nor reasonable”. He added, “Iraq plays football matches all the time. We did not witness anything negative in its recent match with the UAE, nor was the Saudi referee unfair towards the Iraqi team”.
He pointed out that “in football there is a winner and a loser. Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki congratulated the Emirati president on the win that his country deserved. Furthermore the Iraqis, both the people and the government, are not upset with the Iraqi national team. The team has been welcomed home because it performed well at all stages of the tournament”.
The Iraqi official stressed, “These remarks are intended to cause a rift between our Arab brothers for reasons unknown”. However, the Iraqi prime minister was of a different opinion, saying he felt his team had been treated unfairly. During a meeting with the Iraqi national team on Thursday evening, immediately after their return from Bahrain, Maliki stated he felt aggrieved about the way his team had been treated in the Gulf Cup final, but they had still won over the nation. Finally, Ghanim Al-Jumaily, Iraq’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, expressed his hope that a prisoner transfer agreement between his country and Saudi Arabia will be established as soon as possible, adding that several factors have slowed down the process thus far, most notably Iraq’s recent political circumstances. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat yesterday, Jumaily said that the issue of foreign detainees is a matter for the justice and interior ministries of both countries, but revealed that the Iraqi embassy, for its part, is making every effort to provide information to the officials and those concerned. He added that there are currently more than one hundred Iraqi prisoners in Saudi Arabia, mostly accused of drug smuggling and illegal border crossings, in addition to some personal crimes, while Iraqi prisons currently hold around sixty five Saudi inmates.

The Assadi Basij
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
It seems that the advice of Iranian General Qasim Sulaimani, commander of the Qods Force, has now begun to be applied in Syria. The Assad regime has announced the formation of a new military force named the National Defense Army, which will serve as a reservist force for the Assad regime forces. According to Russia Today, this army will be made up of civilian elements carrying out their military service, in addition to popular committees formed in the wake of the Syrian conflict. Russia Today said that this army’s mission will be to protect neighborhoods from attacks by the armed opposition, adding that its cadres will wear uniform and be paid a monthly salary. As for this force’s numbers, it will be made of ten thousand youth from different provinces across the country.
Of course, the opposition rushed to describe this as a re-branding of the pro-regime Shabiha militia; however the fact of the matter is that this National Defense Army is closer to the Iranian Basij militia. Basij, in Farsi, literally means mobilization. The Basij was formed by Imam Ruhollah Mostafavi Musavi Khomeini in November 1979 and falls under the command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). The Basij is made up of volunteers who strongly believe in the concept of velayat el-faqih (Guardianship of the Jurists) and they played an important role in crushing Iran’s Green Revolution during the last presidential election. In this case, the formation of a force like that of the National Defense Army, or shall we say the Assadi Basij, represents proof that Assad has begun to lose confidence in the conventional Syrian army, particularly in light of the huge number of defections from this. This has forced the Assad regime to avoid providing Syrian regular army soldiers with heavy weapons and sophisticated equipment for fear that they could defect, taking these arms and equipment to the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). In fact, the FSA is now seeking to destroy Assad regime tanks, for example, particularly as they are aware that these tanks are not fully armed—being provided with 5 or less shells—which makes it easier to destroy such tanks than attempt to capture them.
The formation of the Assadi Basij also shows that the regime is seeking to utilize sectarianism to reestablish itself, particularly as it has begun to seek to attract cadres with strong resolve, not just loyalty to the regime. This is because many of those loyal to Assad have now been convinced of his inevitable demise. The regime is therefore seeking to ensure that its latest military force is comprised of fighters who are aware that their fate and that of Bashar al-Assad are inexorably linked and will consequently defend him to the death. We say that this new force, the Assadi Basij, is an Iranian idea because it comes at a time when Assad does not even have sufficient funds to pay the salaries of his soldier or rescue the Syrian economy, particularly as the revolution is said to be costing him one billion dollars every month. Therefore, it is clear that the Assadi Basij was formed thanks to Iranian support and advice, and this is in line with the security plan being implemented in Damascus, namely to divide the capital into four security sectors. This is the same approach that was taken to suppress the Green Revolution in Iran when the Iranian security forces divided Tehran into different security sectors to disperse the crowds and prevent any security breaches.
The Assadi Basij exposes the extent of Iran’s involvement in Syria, as well as the depth of the crisis that Assad is facing, to the point that he no longer trusts his own military forces. This also demonstrates the extent of the destruction that Assad has visited on Syria. More than this, the formation of this Assadi Basij also indicates the dangers that we may face in the post-Assad period, as he is now seeking to create terrorist groups and sectarian militias whose mission will be to destabilizing a post-Assad Syria.

Unpublished election poll: Likud 37+, Labor 15 -, Bennett-Lapid level at 14
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 21, 2013/The findings of polls commissioned privately by party leaders the day before Israel’s general election Tuesday, Jan. 22, average out at 37+ (of 120 Knesset seats) for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud-Israel Beitenu, with Labor under its new leader Shelly Yacimovich far behind at 15 –. The two new faces – Naftali Bennett, at the head of Jewish Home, and Yair Lapid’s newly-launched Future party - in a dead heat at 14, and the ultra-religious Shas slipping to 11. Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah continues to slide - down now to six, while the far-left Meretz edges up to the same figure.
These unpublished results were obtained Sunday night, Jan. 20, by debkafile’s sources. The figures are the averages computed among the different polls.
The stars of the 2013 general election turn out to be two newcomers, Bennett and Lapid, although they are nowhere near challenging the frontrunner Likud Beitenu or the certainty that Netanyahu will be returned for another term as prime minister. Both relatively youthful political contenders ran vibrant campaigns depending heavily on the social media and appealing strongly to the younger voter, irrespective of their important differences: Bennett leads a moderately religious hawkish pro-settlement party, while Lapid’s platform is vaguely centrist, flexible, committed only to bettering the lot of the middle class and getting yeshiva seminarists into the army and national service.
Both look like heading for ministerial appointments in the next government coalition before their feet even touch the floor of the Knesset – a testament to Israel’s changing political map and conventions.
Kadima, which headed two governments and led the last election four years ago, is fighting for the minimum threshold of three Knesset seats. It appears set to scrape through thanks to its respected leader, the former chief of staff and defense minister Shaul Mofaz.
These results, which the party leaders are keeping under their hats, refute the findings of all three leading pollsters which were run day by day in the most popular media. They all had Likud-Beitenu in free fall down to 32 or even 31 seats. Netanyahu’s party, despite a lackluster campaign, is clearly bucking that trend.
Labor leader Shelly Yacimovitch finds herself in a tough spot as she faces her first general election as leader of the veteran, oft-split Labor party.
She kicked off her campaign by challenging Netanyahu outright as next prime minister. She then directed her darts at Livni and Lapid. Now, after those tactics misfired, she is reduced to fighting a rearguard battle for the role of opposition leader against the two fast-rising challengers. Lapid like Bennett soared higher, while Livni’s Hatenuah did indeed plunge – but only to pose an existential threat to Labor. The dynamic former trade unions leader, Amir Peretz, whom Yacimovitch alienated, was plucked by Livni two weeks ago out of Labor to bolster her own party. Now, he shows no intention of sinking with his new leader, but rather, when the real election results come through, he is reported by debkafile’s sources, he is planning to pick up the remnants of his adopted Hatenuah, gather around him the supporters he left behind in Labor, including most of the party machine, and run forward to form a new breakaway party under his lead.
This ploy could cost Yacimovich up to half of Labor’s predicted 15 seats after the election. If Amir Peretz can pull it off, he means to bargain for respectable portfolios in Netanyahu’s next government.
This and other maneuvers, including Netanyahu’s own plans, look like producing a very mixed government coalition of hawks, centrists, pro-peace factions, social-minded liberals and moderate religious elements. Netanyahu will however be sure to be the only conductor on the podium.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard
The story of a long war between Iran and the United States
21/01/2013
By Amir Taheri


IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD
By: Steven O’Hern
Published by Potomac Books, United States, 2013
For more than 30 years the Islamic Republic in Iran has been waging a low intensity war against the United States and its allies in the Middle East. This undeclared war has claimed the lives of hundreds of Americans, including many Marines and GI’s killed by roadside explosives in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Iran’s principal arm in this war has been the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a paramilitary organization created in 1979 with the help of Palestinian guerrilla groups. Since then the IRGC has developed into an alternative army with its own navy, air force and special units. Charged by the late Ayatollah Khomeini with the task of “exporting” revolution, the IRGC has created a special unit, known as the Quds (Jerusalem) Division to conduct asymmetric operations against the Khomeinist regime’s enemies across the globe.
Steven O’Hern’s new book is dedicated to a study of the IRGC and the Quds Division with special focus on their operations against US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. A retired military intelligence officer, O’Hern, is able to write this subject with some authority if only because he had personal experience of trying to the IRGC in Iraq.
O’Hern makes three important assertions.
The first is that the threat from the IRGC, though debatable as to its extent and effectiveness, is a fact that the outside world would ignore at its peril. Determined to de-stabilize and, when possible, help overthrow pro-West regimes, Iran’s current leaders have no qualms about using the IRGC in an increasingly aggressive manner.
Next, O’Hern asserts that the United States, the principal though by no means the only, target of the Iranian campaign is unable or unwilling to appreciate the extent of the threat. In fact, O’Hern’s book has this as subtitle: The Threat that Grows While America Sleeps.
The subtitle recalls a slim book written by President John F Kennedy about the rise of the Nazi threat while Europe slept before the Second World War.
O’Hern’s third assertion is equally interesting. He rejects the conventional wisdom’s belief that classical Shi’ite-Sunni divisions in Islam prevent the Khomeinist regime from forming alliances against their common foes.
He then proceeds to suggest that Iran has been helping Al Qaeda with training, tactics and supply of weapons for a number of years and may well have been indirectly involved in the attacks against New York and Washington on 9 September 2001.
According to O’Hern, Iran used the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah to establish a link with Al Qaeda.
He writes: “Hezbollah opened classrooms to Al Qaeda operatives who traveled to Lebanon for training. Al Qaeda purchased a guesthouse in the Bekaa Valley where its members lived while being trained by Hezbollah experts in using explosives used to bring down large structures."
That Shi’ite Hezbollah should help train Sunni Jihadists may seem surprising. However, the IRGC itself had been partly trained by Palestinian groups that were Sunni, Christian or Marxist-Leninist. Because of their common hatred of the United States, they had little difficulty ignoring religious and/or ideological divisions.
According to O’Hern, Imad Mughniyah, a senior military commander of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah visited Al Qaeda’s founder Osama bin Laden while the latter lived in Sudan. Mughniyah’s brother-in-law, one Mustafa Bad red-Din also played a role. A captured Al Qaeda fighter who had been in Sudan at the time witnessed the fateful meetings, O’Hern reports.
According to O’Hern, the Lebanese branches of Hezbollah, like its branches in other countries, is an integral part of the Iranian government’s military-security structure. Mughniyah was recruited by the Iranian intelligence service in 1982 and remained on its payroll until his death in Damascus more than a quarter of a century later. Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is also an Iranian government employee and directly controlled by the IRGC.
While O’Hern hints at the ideological roots of the IRGC he does not study them in detail. Had he done so he would have paid greater attention to reasons that could bring together people from a widely different religious, ethnic and political background in a common fight against the American “Great Satan.” In fact, among the 11 men that O’Hern names as the original founders of the IRGC at least six were US-educated and at least four, including Mostafa Chamran and Ibrahim Yazdi were naturalized US citizens.
Tehran’s anti-American message has also won it a number of allies in Latin America where a number of new left-leaning regimes have helped the IRGC establish bridgeheads in what used to be Washington’s backyard. The IRGC now has “operational assets” in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Bolivia, and maintains a political presence in Argentina and Venezuela and Cuba. In most cases, the IRGC has used ethnic Lebanese and Syrian groups in those countries as a cat’s paw.
As far as the US position is in this low intensity war, O’Hern’s tone remains pessimistic. However, at the end of the book he devotes a chapter to how the US could prevail. The first step in that direction, according to O’Hern, is to explain to the American public the threat that the Khomeinist regime in Tehran poses to the US. O’Hern rules out outright war against the Islamic Republic and questions the effectiveness of economic and other sanctions to change Tehran’s behavior.
What he suggests, in effect, is for the US to give Iran a taste of its own medicine, that is to say low intensity war against it. In other words, this may prove a long struggle that would not, indeed could not, end without regime change in Tehran.