LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 13/2013

Bible Quotation for today/The Temptation of Jesus
Matthew 04/ 01-11: "Then the Spirit led Jesus into the desert to be tempted by the Devil.  After spending forty days and nights without food, Jesus was hungry.  Then the Devil came to him and said, “If you are God's Son, order these stones to turn into bread.” But Jesus answered, “The scripture says, ‘Human beings cannot live on bread alone, but need every word that God speaks.’” Then the Devil took Jesus to Jerusalem, the Holy City, set him on the highest point of the Temple,  and said to him, “If you are God's Son, throw yourself down, for the scripture says,‘God will give orders to his angels about you; they will hold you up with their hands, so that not even your feet will be hurt on the stones.’”  Jesus answered, “But the scripture also says, ‘Do not put the Lord your God to the test.’” Then the Devil took Jesus to a very high mountain and showed him all the kingdoms of the world in all their greatness.  “All this I will give you,” the Devil said, “if you kneel down and worship me.” Then Jesus answered, “Go away, Satan! The scripture says, ‘Worship the Lord your God and serve only him!’” Then the Devil left Jesus; and angels came and helped him."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Self-destruction in the making/By: Michael Young/Daily Star/January 13/13
Syria: Tragicomic performance at Damascus opera/By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/January 13/13
Worries about a ‘failed state’ in Syria/By David Ignatius/The Washington Post/January 13/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 13/13
Lebanon Interior MinisterCharbel to Head to Doha on Tuesday to Press Negotiations in Case of Abducted Pilgrims
STL: Defense Counsel File Pre-Trial Briefs, Challenging Prosecutor’s Claims about Hariri's Murder
Lebanon Interior MinisterCharbel to Head to Doha on Tuesday to Press Negotiations in Case of Abducted Pilgrims
Christian Summit in Bkirki Discusses Electoral Law and Geagea Absent for Security Reasons
Christian rivals scrap Orthodox plan
Mufti Qabbani Hopes for Adoption of Electoral Law that Offers Fair Representation
Fatfat Criticizes Orthodox Gathering Electoral Law, Rejects Proportional Representation System
Lebanese Parliamentary Subcommittee to Meet Monday to Find Common Electoral Ground
Drug and weapons raid at Lebanese University campus
Lebanese State to cover housing for homeless storm victims
Lebanon's Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour to probe low expat voter sign-ups
Over 20,000 Palestinians from Syria remain in Lebanon
Baalbek meeting demands reform in Dar al-Fatwa
Future MP says party surprised by allies’ electoral law position
Shiite religious leaders slam Orthodox plan
Iran, world powers set nuclear talks date
Spain seizes materials bound for Iran nuke program
UN Urged to Refer Syria to War Crimes Court
Syria talks end in Geneva without solution
Syrian rebels: We're on our way to Assad
Syrian rebels and Islamic militants capture strategic air base in northwest Syria: activists
Fate of Syria's Assad complicates international peace efforts
IAEA chief says not optimistic on Iran nuclear talks
Murder of Kurdish activists’ possible inside job
The Muslim Sisterhood has no official leadership – MB founder’s daughter
Kuwaitis financed Brotherhood members held in UAE: media
Lebanese terrorist who killed Israeli in France in 1982 to be released
Ahmadinejad to seek closer ties in visit to Egypt

Christian rivals scrap Orthodox plan
January 12, 2013/By Wassim Mroueh/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Following a surprise meeting chaired by Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Rai Friday, rival Christian leaders called for adopting an electoral law that provides fair representation for all sects, in an apparent retreat from agreeing to the controversial Orthodox electoral proposal.
“It was agreed and stressed that it is necessary to adopt an electoral law that provides the best and fairest representation for all Lebanese sects,” said a brief statement issued after the meeting.
Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun; Amin Gemayel, the head of the Kataeb Party; and Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh attended the meeting at Bkirki, the seat of the Maronite Patriarchate.
Lebanese Forces sources told The Daily Star that the party’s leader Samir Geagea was not present at the meeting for “mere security reasons,” as the time and place of the meeting were leaked to media ahead of time.
The statement said the patriarch and the leaders, including Geagea, would continue talks over the matter. The meeting comes days after representatives of the LF, Kataeb, Marada and FPM met at Bkirki and agreed to support the electoral draft law proposed by the Orthodox Gathering. It would enable every sect to elect its own MPs under a proportional representation system with the entirety of Lebanon as a single district. The draft law is opposed by the Future Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party.
But in remarks published by a local newspaper Friday, Rai indicated that Bkirki was not fully behind the Orthodox Gathering proposal. “Bkirki does not support an Orthodox or Maronite [electoral] proposal; it supports only a Lebanese proposal,” Rai said.
Meanwhile, after four days of futile deliberations, a parliamentary subcommittee discussing electoral draft laws approved the minutes of its meetings and is set to resume talks Monday.
During a morning session, the subcommittee discussed draft laws that would modify the number of MPs, the final item on its agenda.
“The subcommittee finalized the discussion of the draft laws it received from joint parliamentary committees, including the number of MPs,” Western Bekaa MP Robert Ghanem said.
“The minutes will be officially read in the session that will be held Monday afternoon ... we will then try to look for common points and agree on one electoral law,” added Ghanem, who is chairing the subcommittee’s meetings. The subcommittee discussed three draft electoral laws, including the Cabinet’s proposal, which would divide the country into 13 medium-sized districts under a proportional representation system. Also considered were a draft law presented by Aoun’s bloc, similar to the Orthodox proposal, and a third one presented by Christian parties from the March 14 coalition, which would divide Lebanon into 50 small districts under a winner-takes-all system.
For the second session in a row, Baabda MP Alain Aoun from the FPM did not attend. Aoun suspended his participation in the subcommittee’s meetings Thursday after March 14 subcommittee members rejected his demand that the minutes of the meetings be approved straightaway, and that the subcommittee recommend that Parliament vote on the Orthodox proposal, which was supported by the majority of blocs during the meetings.
March 14 lawmakers argued that minutes would be approved once the number of MPs, which is the final item on the agenda, is discussed.
Speaking to a local radio station, Aoun said he wanted to review the proceedings of Friday’s meeting in order to decide whether to participate in Monday’s session, adding that his decision to boycott the meetings was backed by his bloc.
A source close to Speaker Nabih Berri told The Daily Star that Aoun had the right to boycott the subcommittee’s sessions, adding that his absence would not disrupt its work. The source said it was possible that Aoun rejoin the subcommittee’s meetings starting Monday.
But Future Movement MP Serge Torsarkissian, also a member of the subcommittee, lashed out at Aoun’s boycott, calling it an election-related charade to show that the FPM was the most supportive of Christians’ rights.
“It is clear that the absence of my colleague Alain Aoun was coordinated with other March 8 groups,” he said. “Unfortunately, this wasted time ... confused Christians ... and was a bit of folklore ahead of elections to try to prove to Christians that the Free Patriotic Movement and its allies are the only groups concerned about the rights of Christians.”
“No draft law can be passed without the consensus of all groups ... we are all eager to preserve the rights of Christians,” Torsarkissian added.
For his part, Metn MP Sami Gemayel hoped that Berri would call for a parliamentary session soon to put the three draft laws to a vote. “Today, we finished our work as a subcommittee, and Speaker Nabih Berri should set a date for a general assembly session [to pass a draft electoral law],” Gemayel said.
Gemayel called for the electoral law to be developed transparently, not in secret dealings, which he said has been the case over the past 23 years.
“There is one thing we are not ready to let drop: our demand for proper representation ... we are no longer willing to go to elections with this [1960] law,” he said. “Let our allies and rivals put forward proposals that provide ... fair representation, or else we stick to the Orthodox proposal.”
The winner-takes-all 1960 law, a version of which was used in the 2009 elections, is opposed by March 8 and March 14 groups alike.
The subcommittee, which is tackling the most controversial elements of a new electoral law, also discussed whether to increase the number of MPs.
According to a lawmaker who attended the meeting, March 14 MPs of the subcommittee along with Metn MP Hagop Pakradounian from Aoun’s bloc and PSP MP Akram Shehayeb supported increasing the number of lawmakers by six: one Sunni, one Shiite, one Druze, two Syriacs and Catholic.
Gemayel has proposed a draft law to increase the number of MPs by two, one Druze and one representing the Syriac sects, which currently do not have their own MP, but are part of the Christian “Minorities” seat.
Future Movement MP Nabil de Freij’s draft law would increase the number of MPs by four: one Syriac Catholic, one Syriac Orthodox, one Sunni and one Shiite.
Under the government’s draft electoral law, six MPs representing expatriates would be added to the current 128. Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan proposed that the number of MPs be reduced to 108, as agreed upon in the 1989 Taif Accord.
Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad said after the session that his party supported the Cabinet’s draft law.
Shortly after the session began, Adwan left the meeting and paid a visit to Berri, while the rest of the subcommittee members wandered in the corridors, saying they were taking a break for “Friday prayers.” Fatfat said jokingly that Adwan went to perform Friday prayers.
Speaking to reporters after meeting Berri at his Ain al-Tineh residence, Adwan praised the speaker for supporting any draft electoral law Christian parties agree on.
“We praised Speaker Berri’s stance to support the Orthodox proposal which comes in line with his stance to support any draft electoral law that Christians agree on,” he said. “The speaker supports this draft law because he supports lifting injustice inflicted on Christians [as a result of the 1960 law],” Adwan added.

Lebanon Interior MinisterCharbel to Head to Doha on Tuesday to Press Negotiations in Case of Abducted Pilgrims
Naharnet/Interior Minister Marwan Charbel revealed that he will head to Doha on Tuesday to discuss with his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Khalid al-Thani, the case of the abducted Lebanese pilgrims in Syria's Aazaz. “I will discus with the Qatari interior minister the case of the remaining nine abductees and the role that his country can play to release the men,” Charbel said in comments to Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) on Saturday.
According to the state-run news agency, General Security chief Brig. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim will accompany Charbel to Qatar. Eleven Lebanese pilgrims were kidnapped in Syria's Aleppo district in May as they were making their way back to Lebanon by land from pilgrimage in Iran. Two of the captives were released last year, while the rest remain held in Aazaz. On Thursday, the interior minister vowed to head to Qatar to negotiate the release of the remaining nine abductees after the families of the men held a sit-in at the Qatari Embassy in Beirut.The families protested the procrastination of the government to carry out negotiations to release of the pilgrims. They accused the cabinet of neglecting the case of the pilgrims, blaming mainly Charbel. The families of the pilgrims had continuously held Turkey and Qatar responsible for releasing their loved ones.
Late in 2012, the families had also vowed to stage escalatory measures against Turkish interests in Lebanon in order to pressure Turkey to exert efforts to end the abduction, but they called off their actions at Charbel's request.

Drug and weapons raid at Lebanese University campus
January 12, 2013/By Van Meguerditchian/The Daily Star
HADATH, Lebanon: Two men, accused of dealing drugs and possessing weapons, were arrested in a raid at the Lebanese University’s Hadath campus Friday.
Members of the Army and police were heavily deployed at the gates of the upper and lower parts of the campus, taking two members of the Zeaiter family into custody. The men did not have student identification, and it was not immediately clear whether they were enrolled at the university. Security sources told The Daily Star that the decision to raid the university was made several days ago, after Hezbollah and the Amal Movement approved the Army’s demands to root out drug dealers inside the campus, the Lebanese University’s largest. “Hezbollah and the Amal Movement agreed to the raid on the condition that the Army led the operation and not the Internal Security Forces or its Information Branch,” a security source said. In the past year, several media reports have described the Hadath campus as a safe haven for drug dealers where Hezbollah and Amal control security through the Zeaiter clan. Students on campus Friday described the morning’s events, as well as the circumstances that apparently led to the raid.
Ranin, who would not disclose her last name, said that when she left her biology class on the lower campus at around 9:30 a.m., she saw at least a dozen cars filled with soldiers and plain-clothed officers arrive and surround the two cafeterias that she called the “Zeaiter cafeterias.”
“Some of the soldiers were in military uniform, others were just in civilian clothes,” she said.
“They started asking for student IDs from everyone around, but not everyone had student IDs,” she added.
Another student, Zeinab, said that in the past few weeks nargileh (water pipes) loaded with drugs had been sold out of the facility.
“All sorts of illegal things were being sold at the cafeteria,” said Zeinab, who also refused to give her last name. “You can find everything except clothes in this cafeteria.”
Following the arrest of the two men, the army brought in two trucks and removed nargilehs from the cafeterias before shutting them down.
Soldiers posted papers on the doors of the locked cafeterias that read: “It is forbidden to open the cafeteria without Army permission.”
The managers of the two cafeterias, who students said are mostly members of the Zeaiter family, built an outdoor area for nargileh smokers after the country-wide ban on smoking indoors went into effect.
Another family member sells mobile phones and credit from a stand inside. According to some eye witnesses, he was also detained.
“When the soldiers were asking for IDs, the guy who has the shop put on a jacket with the word security written on it,” one eyewitness said.
“He told the soldiers that he was a member of the university’s security,” said the eyewitness, who declined to be identified.
Many students blamed the Zeaiter family, rather than Hezbollah and Amal, for the problems at the Hadath campus.
“No one likes them anymore ... today they closed the cafeteria, tomorrow you’ll see it reopened and everything will be back to normal,” said LU student Ranin.
Nadim Yazbeck, head of the Lebanese Forces Students’ Association, also said the change would not last long.
“We all know that this is not the right way to solve the problems at the Lebanese University,” Yazbeck told The Daily Star, adding that the Army should go after “the big people who are controlling and financing these groups on the Hadath campus and not some drug dealers and students on campus.”
The Daily Star could not immediately reach University president Adnan Sayyed Hussein for comment.

Lebanon Interior MinisterCharbel to Head to Doha on Tuesday to Press Negotiations in Case of Abducted Pilgrims
Naharnet/Interior Minister Marwan Charbel revealed that he will head to Doha on Tuesday to discuss with his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Khalid al-Thani, the case of the abducted Lebanese pilgrims in Syria's Aazaz. “I will discus with the Qatari interior minister the case of the remaining nine abductees and the role that his country can play to release the men,” Charbel said in comments to Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) on Saturday.
According to the state-run news agency, General Security chief Brig. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim will accompany Charbel to Qatar. Eleven Lebanese pilgrims were kidnapped in Syria's Aleppo district in May as they were making their way back to Lebanon by land from pilgrimage in Iran. Two of the captives were released last year, while the rest remain held in Aazaz. On Thursday, the interior minister vowed to head to Qatar to negotiate the release of the remaining nine abductees after the families of the men held a sit-in at the Qatari Embassy in Beirut. The families protested the procrastination of the government to carry out negotiations to release of the pilgrims. They accused the cabinet of neglecting the case of the pilgrims, blaming mainly Charbel. The families of the pilgrims had continuously held Turkey and Qatar responsible for releasing their loved ones. Late in 2012, the families had also vowed to stage escalatory measures against Turkish interests in Lebanon in order to pressure Turkey to exert efforts to end the abduction, but they called off their actions at Charbel's request.

Lebanese State to cover housing for homeless storm victims
 January 12, 2013/The Daily Star/Khalil and Hajj Hasan inspect the damage in Hay al-Sellom.
BEIRUT: The Higher Relief Committee announced Friday that it will pay monthly compensation to all families who were made homeless by extreme weather and flooding earlier this week.
Also, a second death was reported due to the cold weather, as Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour said his ministry has provided shelter to many homeless people in the past year and is ready to help others in similar cases.
In the wake of criticism of government inaction in the face of the dayslong bout of heavy snow, flooding and plunging temperatures, a delegation led by government ministers visited the Beirut southern suburb of Hay al-Sellom to inspect damage.
The Cabinet this week approved LL3 billion to the HRC earlier this week as compensation for the victims, although the sum included payments to victims of civil strife in Tripoli and a bomb attack in Ashrafieh last year that killed Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan.
In a joint news conference in Hay al-Sellom with Agriculture Minister Hussein Hajj Hasan, the HRC’s secretary-general, Ibrahim Bashir, said all families who were made homeless by the flooding would receive a monthly payment of $500 as they await repairs.
“Based on the orders of the Prime Minister Najib Mikati, we have agreed with the army to prepare a list of family names that are in need of shelter,” said Bashir. “As of tomorrow morning, we will start paying $500 compensation for housing for individual families.”
They were joined by a number of MPs, Health Minister Ali Hasan Khalil and Transportation and Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi.
The Ghazir River burst into the poorly developed Hay al-Sellom Tuesday and caused severe flooding in dozens of houses.
Hezbollah and Amal Movement MPs and local municipality officers joined the officials in their tour of the area, during which Khalil called for speedy intervention by the government to help rehabilitate the neighborhood.
“We are facing a real disaster; there are families and homes that are abandoned,” Khalil told reporters.
“This is why we need to speed up the measures that we agreed upon to provide shelter to the people as fast as we can.”
Khalil said that a $25 billion infrastructure development project for the area was awaiting Cabinet approval.
Meanwhile, Social Affairs Minister Abu Faour responded to the death of a homeless man near the American University of Beirut this week due to the extreme weather.
Abu Faour reminded the public of the 1714 hotline to report humanitarian distress cases and said he had been alerted to the situation of Ali Abdullah, who was mourned earlier this week by AUB students.
Abu Faour said he had personally visited the AUB campus area several times but was unable to locate the whereabouts of Abdullah, whose funeral took place Friday.
The National News Agency said that Syrian national Mohammad Ibrahim al-Fadl, a bedouin, succumbed to the extreme cold weather in the city of Baalbek.
CDR responds to flooding claims
The Council for Development and Reconstruction responded Friday to an article published in The Daily Star a day earlier entitled “A Perfect Storm of Mismanagement and Corruption.”
The piece quoted a local official from the town of Barr Elias in the Bekaa claiming that the unfinished Arab Highway, a CDR project, contributed to recent flooding in the area.
In a faxed statement to The Daily Star, the CDR said the affected area near the Palestinian Crescent Hospital lay outside the scope of the highway, and that the flooding was caused by blocked sewers, which are not the responsibility of the CDR.

Lebanese Parliamentary Subcommittee to Meet Monday to Find Common Electoral Ground
Naharnet/A parliamentary subcommittee completed discussions on electoral draft-laws, including the number of MPs, and will hold a meeting next week to announce the minutes of the deliberations, its chairman MP Robert Ghanem announced Friday.
“The minutes of the previous meetings will be announced during a session on Monday afternoon aimed at finding common ground on an electoral draft-law,” Ghanem told reporters in parliament.
“There isn't consensus on one issue ... But discussions were serious,” he said.
Ghanem hinted that the MPs could hold another meeting on Tuesday.
The 10-member subcommittee held its meeting on Friday in the absence of Change and Reform bloc lawmaker Alain Aoun who walked out of the discussions the day before over what he said was the rejection of the opposition March 14 lawmakers to finalize the minutes of the last meeting.
Aoun said his boycott is aimed at protesting “the campaign led by al-Mustaqbal movement,” and attempts by the opposition members of the subcommittee to “drown the meetings with useless ideas to waste time.”
He said the agenda of the meetings is clear in terms of discussing three proposed draft-laws, including the Orthodox Gathering proposal which has won support by four rival Christian parties – the FPM, the Lebanese Forces, the Phalange party and the Marada movement.
The proposal calls for adopting Lebanon as a single district based on proportional representation with each sect electing its own MPs. The other suggestions include a March 14 draft-law that calls for dividing Lebanon into 50 districts based on a winner-takes-all system and a government bill referred to parliament which projects Lebanon as 13 districts in a proportional representation system.
The political differences between members of the opposition and the March 8 parliamentary majority alliance have led to the failure of the two sides since Tuesday to agree on a draft-law that best guarantees the representation of the Lebanese in this year's elections.
March 14 Christian politicians, al-Mustaqbal, and MP Walid Jumblat’s National Struggle Front have criticized the Orthodox Gathering for allegedly deepening sectarian divisions.
Al-Mustaqbal and Jumblat have also criticized the cabinet's proposal, saying they totally reject proportionality.
Following Friday's meeting, al-Mustaqbal MP Serge Torsarkissian slammed Aoun for withdrawing from the meetings, describing his boycott as an “electoral folklore” to insinuate that only the Free Patriotic Movement clings to the rights of Christians.
“Aoun is wasting time and is escaping from the Orthodox Gathering proposal,” he told reporters.
Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan, who is another opposition member of the subcommittee, said: “We are not seeking to monopolize decision-making or isolate any side.”
He expressed belief that Aoun would attend Monday's meeting after the subcommittee agreed to finalize the minutes of its meetings.
“There will absolutely be no returning to the 1960 law,” he said about the winner-takes-all system that takes the Qada as an electoral district and which was used in the 2009 elections.
Adwan met with Speaker Nabih Berri for 30 minutes in Ain el-Tineh and then returned to parliament to attend the meeting.
He said following the talks that Berri holds onto his stance of supporting the Greek Orthodox proposal for receiving the backing of Christian parties.
The MP said the speaker hoped the subcommittee would complete its work swiftly to hold a parliamentary session aimed at adopting an electoral draft-law that guarantees a fair representation for all the Lebanese.
MP Sami Gemayel expressed a similar view after attending the meeting of the subcommittee as a representative of the Phalange party.
“We are seeking real partnership in Lebanon and we want all sides to believe that they are being fairly represented,” he said.
“We will no longer accept that we be treated in the same manner that we were treated in the past 23 years,” he added.
He also criticized Aoun, saying “I don't know why MP Alain Aoun withdrew from the subcommittee meeting even though we completed work on proposed issues.”

Christian Summit in Bkirki Discusses Electoral Law and Geagea Absent for Security Reasons
Naharnet /A statement issued by Bkirki after a Christian summit on Friday called for agreeing on an electoral law that secures fair and just representation for all Lebanese communities.
"The participants in the summit were Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel and Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh,” the statement said, remarking that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was absent for security reasons. "The meeting discussed the Orthodox Gathering's draft electoral law in addition to other proposals that secure fair Christian representation,” al-Jadeed television reported.
OTV revealed that Bkirki's meeting was scheduled for next week but was held on Friday due to the latest developments on the Lebanese scene.
The parliamentary subcommittee completed on Friday the discussions on electoral draft-laws and the number of MPs, and is set to convene again next week to announce the minutes of the deliberations, its chairman MP Robert Ghanem announced. On Sunday, the Christian four-party committee on the electoral law agreed to endorse the electoral system proposed by the so-called Orthodox Gathering, under which each sect would elect its own lawmakers. Meanwhile, President Michel Suleiman had announced his rejection of the Orthodox draft law, describing it as unconstitutional. March 14 Independent Christian leaders had held a press conference in which they also criticized the proposal.

Future MP says party surprised by allies’ electoral law position
Now Lebanon/Lebanon’s opposition Future bloc MP Samir al-Jisr said Friday that his party was surprised by their March 14 Christian allies’ support of the Orthodox Gathering proposal hammered in out in Bkirki.
“We were surprised by our allies’ support of the Orthodox proposal in the Bkirki meeting,” he said in reference to the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb parties during an interview with Ash-Sharq radio.
“We consider [this support] a deviation from our agreement on this topic,” he added.
Lebanon is set to elect new parliamentary representatives in 2013, but the country's political circles are divided over the electoral law issue despite the cabinet’s approval in September 2012 of a draft law based on proportionality and 13 electoral districts. The new law is supposed to replace the current 1960 law based on simple majority representation. On Sunday, media reports said that a consensus regarding the Orthodox Gathering proposal was reached during a meeting of representatives of Christian parties at the seat of the Maronite patriarchate in Bkirki. The proposal—which the Future Movement rejects—calls for citizens to vote for candidates by religious sect.

Self-destruction in the making
Michael Young/January 11, 2013
Suddenly, some are waking up to the dire implications of the Orthodox proposal for an election law. Even the Maronite patriarch, Beshara al-Rai has reportedly not embraced the proposal, though he rejects the 1960 law that will prevail if no alternative is found.
So, we may be heading toward another impossible Lebanese stalemate. We have problems with the new law, but will be damned if we accept the current law, while the proposal we do favor has no chance of gaining support. Now go resolve the problem.
If the Orthodox law is passed, and it is favored by most of the major Christian parties that have met in a parliamentary sub-committee—the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and the Marada movement—it will be divisive and wreak havoc on the political scene. This is hardly advisable just months before elections are supposed to take place.
The law organizes Lebanon as a single electoral district, whereby each sect would elect its own parliamentarians under a proportional representation system. The system it outlines is archaic, divisive and, well, sectarian. It is built on dissatisfaction among Christians with seeing many of their representatives chosen by predominantly Muslim electorates. Therefore it cannot stand in any way as a model for national amity. Rather than uniting the Lebanese, it divides them hopelessly, which is perhaps one reason why Rai, despite having tried to sell himself as the prime defender of Maronite interests, appears today to hesitate to go along with the proposition.
Perhaps Rai’s reluctance has something to do with President Michel Suleiman’s views of the law. The president, with whom the patriarch is close, opposes the project and intends to challenge it on constitutional grounds. The thing is that all alternatives are equally problematical, above all the current 1960 law. Most Christians, Rai included, reject the 1960 law, since it means that many Christian parliamentarians will be brought into parliament by Muslim majority electorates.
But let’s pause for a moment and ask an obvious question. Given the demographic differences in Lebanon, and the fact that the country is perhaps two-thirds Muslim, is it realistic to bend laws out of shape to prevent non-Christians from bringing Christians into parliament? Some parties, principally Hezbollah, would say yes, because they realize that the Orthodox proposal is to their advantage. It helps their allies in the Christian community, it weakens those expected to win on the basis of alliances with Sunni electorates controlled by Saad Hariri, and it ensures that the party itself gets most Shiite votes.
Moreover, by favoring the Orthodox scheme, Hezbollah is heightening the contradictions between the March 14 parties and their own voters. Had March 14 been less hasty, it would have remained more ambiguous about the Orthodox proposal when it came out. Instead, many Christians in the opposition announced they favored the plan, to rally Christians who largely support the proposal. Yet, since the 1960 law is in the interest of March 14, this creates a dilemma. If March 14 Christians say no to the Orthodox project, they may lose their base; if they say yes, they may lose the election.
Many of the March 14 Christians are beginning to realize they are trapped. The aim of the Orthodox proposal—put forth by the ex-deputy parliament speaker, Elie Ferzli, a prominent ally of Syria and Hezbollah—was to deny March 14 Christian candidates support from sizable pro-Saad Hariri Sunni electorates. If the plan goes through, Sunni voters will not be able to help Christian candidates in key districts such as Zahle, Koura, the West Beqaa, Tripoli and Beirut III. Overall, Hariri would lose as a consequence.
The Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea apparently doesn’t sense that when he backed the Orthodox proposal, it was a maneuver too far. In order not to anger his Maronite base, he may now face a new election law that guarantees he wins fewer parliamentarians than he had hoped for. Yet Geagea also feels he has a growing Christian electorate and seeks to take on Michel Aoun among their coreligionists, while showing that he does not rely on Hariri’s backing.
No wonder this has strained ties between March 14 Christians, namely the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Party, and the Future Movement. For Future, the Christians may be asserting their independence, but it means that as a whole March 14 loses. This would deny Saad Hariri a victory he needs to secure, at a time when the regime of Bashar al-Assad may be about to fall.
Beyond that, the Greek Orthodox law tells us something about the Christians in Lebanese society. As they struggle to define a role for themselves in a country where they have become a minority, some Christians are searching for all possible means, no matter how destructive, to reaffirm themselves against the Muslim majority. Some but not all. A meeting at Boutros Harb’s residence on Thursday strongly condemned the Greek Orthodox plan, saying that it would in time lead to the disintegration and disappearance of Lebanon.
Lebanon, as a unifying idea, risks being abandoned, as does the country’s social contract. From March 14 Christians, who once saw their alliance with Muslims as the cornerstone of a new Lebanon, this is worrisome. Christian insecurity is destroying the country, and not enough Christian leaders are admitting to this dramatic situation. **Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling

Lebanon's Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour to probe low expat voter sign-ups
January 12, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour said Friday he would investigate the reasons behind the low turnout of expatriate registration for the upcoming elections and defended his ministry of any shortcomings in this regard. “I sent a communique to all Lebanese diplomatic missions abroad asking them to provide the [Foreign] Ministry within five days with detailed data and reasons behind the low turnout of voters,” said Mansour, speaking to reporters at his ministry.
He added that the information would be collected in a booklet that the ministry would forward to government departments and civil society groups in order to clarify the reasons behind the low level of participation.
Earlier this week, the Foreign Ministry said only 6,733 Lebanese expatriates in 46 countries had registered to participate in the 2013 parliamentary elections while there were no registrations at diplomatic missions in 40 other countries. Mansour said the report would vindicate his ministry and reveal it was not to blame for the results “because we have done everything we can.” Earlier in the day, Mansour said a lack of enthusiasm on the part of Lebanese expats for the upcoming elections meant very few had registered to vote. He also defended against claims that his ministry had failed to encourage a higher turnout.
“There was sluggishness on the part of expatriates themselves and today they want to throw the ball in our court and that is unacceptable,” Mansour told Free Lebanon Radio Station. “It’s wrong to hold embassies responsible for the [low turnout],” he added. He defended the work of missions abroad, saying they had carried out their duties and said the government had exhausted all efforts to encourage Lebanese abroad to register at their nearest embassy or consulate. Mansour highlighted that of a population of 80,000 Lebanese living in the Australian city of Melbourne, only 1,136 Lebanese had registered to vote. In Kuwait, where some 40,000 Lebanese reside, only 818 registered to vote, the minister said. The Interior Ministry had called on the expats to register their names at embassies and consulates before Dec. 31, 2012, according to the electoral law currently in effect.
The foreign minister suggested that the poor expat registration may have been the result of Lebanese politicians failing to agree on an electoral law to govern the polls due in June.
“The Lebanese expatriate is probably frustrated because Lebanon has yet to agree on an electoral law and that has a negative effect,” Mansour said. Lawmakers are also debating an increase in the number of seats in the 128-member Parliament to allocate some for the expatriates.

Kuwaitis financed Brotherhood members held in UAE: media
January 11, 2013/Daily Star
KUWAIT: Islamists held in the United Arab Emirates accused of planning to topple the government were financed by Kuwaiti nationals, Kuwaiti media reported on Friday, lending support to UAE fears of an international plot against its rulers. The UAE, a major oil exporter, has detained more than 60 Islamists in the past year who it says belong to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group founded in Egypt in 1928 and which is banned in the Gulf Arab state, and who it accuses of planning to establish an Islamic state and operating an armed wing.
The UAE has repeatedly said that the detainees were receiving financial support from individuals in other Gulf Arab states, but had stopped short of naming those countries.
Several newspapers on Friday quoted Kuwaiti parliamentarians as saying Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Sabah informed them at a confidential meeting held on Thursday that Kuwaiti nationals had been providing financial support to Muslim Brotherhood members in the UAE.
"Yes, there was financing coming from Kuwait," Sheikh Jaber told the parliamentarians in the session, according to the Arabic-language daily al-Watan.
Sheikh Jaber gave no further details, al-Watan reported, adding only: "We can't announce the names before they have been referred to the courts."
The pan-Arab Asharq al-Awsat carried a similar report, quoting two MPs as confirming the prime minister's comments.
A government spokesman in Kuwait was not immediately available to comment, nor were UAE officials available on Friday, the first day of the weekend in most Gulf Arab states.
The Muslim Brotherhood is not banned in Kuwait, which has the most open political system in the Gulf.
Thanks to its state-sponsored cradle-to-grave welfare systems, the UAE has avoided the unrest that has unseated autocratic Arab rulers elsewhere in the past two years, but it has come down hard on any sign of political dissent. Local Islamists became emboldened by their counterparts' successes in other parts of the region during the Arab Spring, such as in Egypt and Tunisia, and made unprecedented use of social media to air their views.
In July, Dubai police chief Dhahi Khalfan warned of an international plot to overthrow Gulf Arab governments, saying the region needed to be prepared to counter any threat from Muslim Brotherhood sympathisers as well as from Syria and Iran.
Last week, local newspapers reported that the UAE had rejected a request by Egypt to free 11 of its citizens held on suspicion of training Islamists in how to overthrow governments.
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood said the men had been wrongfully arrested.
 

Fate of Syria's Assad complicates international peace efforts
By Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer / January 11, 2013
UN envoy Brahimi implied President Assad might not have a role in a future government, while Russia says only Syrians can make that call. Meanwhile, rebels said they took control of a key military base.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's fate has stalled the international community's attempts to agree on a peace plan to end nearly two years of violence in Syria.
United Nations special envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi met today in Geneva with US and Russian representatives to discuss political transition in Syria. But with the United States and the Syrian opposition insisting that Mr. Assad not be a part of the next government, and Russia insisting that only the Syrian people can make that call, today's talks seem likely – like those before them – to hit an impasse.
RECOMMENDED: In key Syrian city, snipers and bombing tear at fabric of daily life . The Syrian government compounded Mr. Brahimi's difficulties yesterday, saying that he was "flagrantly biased" after he implied in public comments that Assad would have to step down and not be a part of any future government, Reuters reports.
"In Syria...what people are saying is that a family ruling for 40 years is a little bit too long," Brahimi told the BBC, referring to Assad, who inherited his post from his father Hafez al-Assad, who seized power in 1970 and ruled for 30 years. "President Assad could take the lead in responding to the aspiration of his people rather than resisting it," the veteran Algerian diplomat said, hinting the Syrian leader should go.
The Foreign Ministry in Damascus said it was very surprised at Brahimi's comments, which showed "he is flagrantly biased for those who are conspiring against Syria and its people".
Syria's al-Watan newspaper said Brahimi had removed his "mask of impartiality" to reveal his true face as a "a tool for the implementation of the policy of some Western countries".
Brahimi's comments were a response to a defiant speech by Assad earlier this week that made clear he had no intention of making any concessions to the Syrian opposition or engaging in meaningful dialogue, as the Monitor's Dan Murphy noted. According to The New York Times, the government's dismissal of Brahimi increases the chances that he could share the same fate as previous envoy Kofi Annan by becoming "sidelined into irrelevance" – although it did not explicitly say it would no longer work with him. Mr. Annan failed to make any substantive progress toward resolving the conflict during his time as mediator.
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As Brahimi met with US and Russian representatives in Geneva, the Syrian rebels announced that they had taken over Taftanaz military base in Idlib Province – a major victory if true. The base has been the site of fierce fighting for days. According to rebels, Taftanaz has been a launchpad for bombing opposition positions throughout northern Syria, CNN reports. The rebels say they now control the buildings, ammunition, and military equipment located there, although one fighter told The New York Times that the government had destroyed their own planes to prevent them from falling into rebel hands.
The US is meanwhile taking steps to ensure that Syria's chemical weapons are secure when Assad leaves, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said yesterday, according to CNN. He would not rule out the possibility of US troops on the ground. "We're not talking about ground troops, but it depends on what ... happens in a transition," he said. "You always have to keep the possibility that, if there is a peaceful transition and international organizations get involved, that they might ask for assistance in that situation. But in a hostile situation, we're not planning to ask for that."
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey warned that it "would be almost unachievable" to stop the Syrian government from using its chemical weapons if it chose to do so.
RECOMMENDED: In key Syrian city, snipers and bombing tear at fabric of daily life

Syrian rebels and Islamic militants capture strategic air base in northwest Syria: activists
President Bashar Assad's opponents captured the Taftanaz air base in Syria's Idlib province on Friday, seizing helicopters, tanks, and rocket launchers. The government had been using the base to launch airstrikes against rebel-held areas.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Friday, January 11, 2013, 1:40 PM
BEIRUT — Syrian rebels and Islamic militants seeking to topple President Bashar Assad took full control of a strategic northwestern air base Friday in a significant blow to government forces, seizing helicopters, tanks and multiple rocket launchers, activists said.
The Taftanaz air base in Idlib province is the largest air base yet to be captured by the rebels —and it is the biggest field in the north of the country for the helicopters that the regime has used to bomb rebel-held areas and deliver supplies to government troops.
The capture further chips away at the regime's airpower in the north, which the regime has relied upon increasingly over the past year as it lost control of large swaths of territory. But it doesn't eliminate the threat to rebels from the air. There remain several other, smaller helicopter bases, and regime warplanes that also strike the area operate from bases further south. The capture wouldn't affect the military's airpower against rebels in other parts of the country. But the fall of the base is a new embarrassment for the regime, a sign of its fraying hold in the north. It also provides a strong boost for the arsenal of the rebels, who partially rely on weapons looted from the military.
Rebels from al-Qaida affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra and several other, mainly Islamist brigades have been fighting for weeks for control of the sprawling Taftanaz facility and broke into it on Wednesday evening. Activists said the rebels seized control of buildings, ammunition and military equipment after ferocious fighting at dawn.
"As of now, the rebels are in full control of the air base," said Idlib-based activist Mohammad Kanaan. He acknowledged that government airstrikes will not stop, but said the base's fall puts "another big nail in the coffin of the regime."
A video taken by activists inside the base and posted online showed helicopters in the field, some of which appeared intact while others were destroyed.
"These are the helicopters that belonged to Assad's regime and now they are the helicopters of the Syrian people," said the narrator as he reached a parked helicopter that looked intact.
The video showed rebels dismantling ammunition from a heavy machine gun in the base and loading the ammunition into a truck. In other videos, rebels are seen celebrating inside the base, some kneeling and kissing the ground and others showing off booty including multiple rocket launchers.
The videos appeared genuine and corresponded to other AP reporting on the events depicted.
The weaponry at the bases is a key prize for the rebels, though it is not clear whether they can use the helicopters themselves. Rebels have captured helicopters in the past but there's been no reported case of them flying one.
Kanaan, the activist in Idlib, said the rebels seized tanks and helicopters at the base, but added that most if not all of the helicopters were damaged from the fighting and were nonfunctional. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an anti-Assad activist group, said around 20 helicopters were seized but none were in working order.
In one video, at least six dead men in military uniform were seen on the ground outside one of the housing units in the base. Two other dead men were seen inside the building. "They refused to defect. We have been urging them to defect since our attack began 10 days ago," the rebel narrating the video said.
Another video released by the Observatory showed at least four dead men in uniform, including two who were wearing pilots' costumes, in what appeared to be a trench.
There was no immediate word on casualties among rebels.
The rebels had been attacking Taftanaz for months, launching a fresh offensive on it in early November with a force activists estimated at about 700 fighters, almost all of them Islamic militants.
The assault was also a sign of the strength of Islamic hardliners within the rebel ranks. The fighters included members of Jabhat al-Nusra, a group affiliated with al-Qaida that includes many foreign jihadis, along with Syrian rebel groups with a similar ideology. Frighters from al-Nusra, which the U.S. has branded a terrorist organization, have been among the most effective in the rebels' battle to oust Assad.
Last week, the rebels began major attacks on three other air bases in Idlib and the nearby province of Aleppo.
Taftanaz lies near the highway between the capital Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo, a major front in the civil war that has stood at a stalemate for months.
But it is unclear if the rebels will try to retain control of Taftanaz. The Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of activists on the ground, said government warplanes bombed the air base after the rebel takeover Friday. The opposition has seized several other air defense bases in the north and Damascus suburbs, making off with weapons and ammunition, but in most cases has not managed to retain the facilities.
Until the fall of Taftanaz, the biggest capture had been that of the Marj al-Sultan base just outside the capital Damascus. The base was mostly used for fixing helicopters but the rebels captured several choppers in it.

Worries about a ‘failed state’ in Syria
By David Ignatius, Jan 12, 2013/The Washington Post
Growing chaos in the liberated areas of northern Syria is convincing some members of the Syrian opposition that the country will become a “failed state” unless an orderly political transition begins soon to replace President Bashar al-Assad. This stark analysis is contained in an intelligence report provided to the State Department last week by Syrian sources working with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Describing the situation in the area from Aleppo to the Turkish border, where Assad’s army has largely disappeared, the report draws a picture of disorganized fighters, greedy arms peddlers and profiteering warlords.
This security vacuum in the Aleppo region appears to have helped Jabhat al-Nusra, which is allied with al-Qaeda. The group is benefiting not just from its prowess on the battlefield but from its refusal to engage in looting and other predatory behavior. In its emphasis on crude but egalitarian justice and social services, Jabhat al-Nusra emulates other successful Muslim extremist organizations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The security situation isn’t as bad in rural areas, such as Idlib province, southwest of Aleppo, according to the Syrian sources. Unlike the multiethnic sprawl of the cities, the rural towns and villages are tighter and more cohesive, with tribal and other traditional sources of authority filling the vacuum left by Assad’s crumbling army.
The disorder in Syria illustrates a too-little discussed problem that has emerged in the past decade of war and revolution in the Arab world: When repressive police states are toppled through foreign invasion or civil war, the basic framework of law and order can disappear, too. This has been the case in Iraq, Libya and now Syria.
Looking ahead, the United States and its allies need to encourage more stable transitions of power — where possible, maintaining national institutions, such as state services and the army, but transferring control of them to a new, more democratic leadership. That’s what happened in the mostly bloodless revolutions of Egypt and Yemen, where the United States pushed the army generals to abandon the dictators.
The United States made a halfhearted attempt to grapple with this problem of transition in Syria, by encouraging “military councils” in Aleppo, Idlib and other areas. The idea was that these groups would foster disciplined command and control among the rebels — helping them overcome Assad and also providing some structure for orderly transition and governance. But Syrian sources say that the military councils have largely dissolved, partly because the United States and its allies never used them effectively to funnel aid to the rebels.
“There are hundreds of small groups (10-20 fighters) spread all over the area of Aleppo,” notes the bleak assessment given to the State Department. “The FSA has [been] transformed into disorganized rebel groups, infiltrated by large numbers of criminals. All our efforts with MCs [military councils] were abolished. . . . Warlords are a reality on the ground now. . . . A [failed] state is the most likely outcome of the current condition, unless adjustment [is] done.” The battles in the north these days are mostly for the spoils of war, argues the Syrian assessment. “Rebel violations are becoming a normal daily phenomenon, especially against civilians, including looting public and private factories, storage places, houses and cars.” The report cites, for example, the looting of a Syrian oil company storage facility and sales of smuggled grain to Turkish middlemen.
Syrian civilians are suffering greatly. In the Aleppo area, notes the assessment, “people are struggling to obtain basic life needs.” The price of propane has increased eight times; heating fuel and gasoline are up tenfold; bread prices have risen eightfold. Desperate for firewood, “poor people are cutting trees from public parks or using school desks.”
In this anarchic situation, the disciplined Jabhat al-Nusra is “gaining popularity,” notes the assessment, because of its steps to serve the public, including: “No looting or violating civilian properties; shares gains among all participant battalions; does not care about claiming credit; if they gain essential materials (like propane gas tanks) they distribute them to the public for free.” If this trend continues, “the extremist groups will turn into the ‘savior’ for Syrian people from the warlords.” While the latest reports from Syria illustrate the dangers of U.S. passivity there, they also suggest that foreign military intervention might well have created similar problems, like those seen in Libya and Iraq after their dictators were toppled. The answer in Syria is to support moderate military forces among the rebels and assist a stable transition — keeping intact important institutions of the Syrian state but under new political management. davidignatius@washpost.com

Syria talks end in Geneva without solution
Jan. 11, 2013. / SALVATORE DI NOLFI,AP PHOTO/KEYSTONE/AP
GENEVA International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said Friday that Russia seems as determined as the United States to end Syria's civil war, but that he doesn't expect a political solution to emerge anytime soon.
Brahimi, who is the joint U.N.-Arab League envoy for Syria, spent the day at the United Nations' European headquarters meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns."We are all very, very deeply aware of the immense suffering of the Syrian people, which has gone for far too long. We all stressed the need for a speedy end to the bloodshed, to the destruction and all forms of violence in Syria. We stressed again that in our view, there was no military solution to this conflict," Brahimi told reporters.
Syrian rebels seize key air base: Activists
Anti-Assad Islamic militants seize parts of air base
U.S.: Assad "detached from reality"
But he acknowledged that "if you are asking me whether a solution is around the corner, I am not sure that is the case. What I am certain of is that there is an absolute necessity for people to continue to work for such a peaceful solution, and that it is the wider international community, especially members of the Security Council, that can really create the opening that is necessary to start effectively solving the problem."
Brahimi's five hours of talks with Bogdanov and Burns on Friday ended without any apparent deal. It was Brahimi's second meeting in as many months with Bogdanov and Burns, who each left without making any public comments. In December, Brahimi also met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to discuss Syria.
At the Security Council, the most powerful arm of the United Nations, Russia has joined China in blocking several resolutions aimed at pressuring Syrian President Bashar Assad, but Moscow says it is not propping up his regime. Recently, top Russian officials have signaled they are resigned to Assad eventually losing power.
Brahimi defended Moscow's role.
"I am absolutely certain that the Russians are as preoccupied as I am, as preoccupied as the Americans are, by the bad situation that exists in Syria and its continuing deterioration, and I am absolutely certain that they would like to contribute to its solution," he said. Brahimi, who didn't comment on China's response to Syria's civil war, said the foundation for a political solution continues to be the agreement reached among major powers in Geneva in June, which called for creation of a new governing body for Syria that would "exercise full executive powers" during an unspecified transition period.
"And we agreed that full executive powers means all the powers of state," Brahimi said of Friday's discussions. "I will continue to engage all Syrian parties as well as other stakeholders in the region and internationally."
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in an interview with the Associated Press that he was pleased that Brahimi convened the meeting and "I'm also encouraged that they are trying to bridge the gap on their differences, particularly how this transitional executive body will operate."
"I know that there was some common understanding that this transitional executive power means all the powers of state," he said. "I certainly hope that they will continue to discuss this matter."
"It was not the breakthrough — but it is progress," Ban said.
He said he spoke to Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby after the meeting and said Brahimi will come to New York later this month for talks with U.N. officials and the Security Council.
In Washington, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters "it's hard to imagine how you would have a transitional government with Assad still part of it."
The conflict began in March 2011 with peaceful protests against Assad's family dynasty, which has ruled the country for four decades, but the intense crackdown on the uprising and armed rebel opposition soon became a civil war. "According to our progress today, we said that this transitional government that will be in charge during the transitional period only. It is not a government that will stay for a long time. It will direct the transitional period that will end with the holding of the elections that will be agreed upon. During this transitional period, the transitional government has to enjoy complete powers and these complete powers are those of the whole state," Brahimi said.
The U.N. says at least 60,000 people have been killed in the war and millions have fled their homes. So far, all international efforts to end the fighting have failed. Syria has complained that Brahimi exhibited "flagrant bias" after he called for real, not cosmetic, change in Syria and said Assad was resisting the aspirations of his people.
Brahimi took the criticism in stride. "I saw the statement by the Syrian government. They expressed their point of view, but at the same time they said that they are ready to continue cooperating with me," he said.
He clarified his stance further. "I said the Syrians are saying 40 years is enough — the Syrians," he said. "I said the Syrian people are saying that 40 years is enough. And I never said that there will be no place for members of the government. I never said that." The U.N. refugee agency said Friday that it is concerned about the severe winter conditions faced by about 612,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt, and there has been no letup in the flow of thousands of people a day across the borders. "Many of those arriving have been barefoot, with their clothing soaked, and covered in mud and snow," agency spokesman Adrian Edwards told reporters in Geneva, referring to new refugee arrivals in Jordan.
© 2013 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

UN Urged to Refer Syria to War Crimes Court
By FRANK JORDANS Associated Press
BERLIN January 12, 2013 (AP)
More than 50 countries have backed a call for the U.N. Security Council to refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court, a move that would open the way for war crimes prosecutions.
A draft of the letter obtained Friday by The Associated Press says the situation in Syria should be referred to the Hague-based war crimes tribunal "without exceptions and irrespective of the alleged perpetrators."
"At the very least, the council should send out an unequivocal message (...) announcing that it intends to refer the situation to the ICC unless a credible, fair and independent accountability process is being established in a timely manner" by Syria, it continues. The letter cites the findings of a U.N. expert panel documenting summary executions, torture and sexual violence that has occurred since the start of the uprising in March 2011. It also notes repeated appeals by the U.N.'s top human rights official and resolutions by the global body's Human Rights Council calling for ICC referral. The draft letter was signed by Switzerland's ambassador to the United Nations in New York on behalf of dozens of countries including Britain and France, two of the Security Council's five permanent members. The other three permanent members — the United States, China and Russia — had not signed the draft. A spokesman for Switzerland's U.N. mission in New York said the letter would be submitted to the Security Council on Monday. Adrian Sollberger said Switzerland first proposed such a move in June 2012, and that it now had the backing of more than 50 countries from all regions of the world, giving the call sufficient political weight. "The manifold allegations of crimes against humanity and war crimes in Syria must be investigated and those responsible among all the parties of the conflict must be brought before a court," he said. The Security Council is the only body that can refer Syria to the ICC because the country itself hasn't ratified the international convention that established the tribunal. The U.N.'s human rights office issued a report last week estimating that at least 60,000 people have died in Syria since the start of the conflict

Syria: Tragicomic performance at Damascus opera
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
Since the start of the uprising in Syria in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad has responded to the challenge with three major speeches.
Each time, the venue chosen had a perhaps unintended symbolic significance.
The first venue was the ornate hall used for meetings of the Council of Ministers.
The choice indicted that the president regarded the burgeoning uprising which begun in Deraa as a largely administrative problem to be handled by the government through bureaucratic means.
Al-Assad’s tone was paternalistic, not to say patronising. He saw the uprising as a minor and localised affair prompted by some people’s misunderstanding of his government’s beneficial policies.
Trying to triangulate, al-Assad cast himself as an arbiter between the protestors and the government. In that mode he dictated a series of meaningless measures, with ministers dutifully noting every word.
Al-Assad’s failure to see the political nature of the uprising was astonishing, to say the least.
In the next speech al-Assad enlisted members of the Syrian parliament as audience. The choice of the parliament as venue indicated the beginning of an understanding that something more than administrative blips was involved. Despite thousands killed and many more driven out of their homes or imprisoned, the problem al-Assad faced was unlikely to end with bureaucratic measures and hollow promises.
Nevertheless, al-Assad still insisted that the revolt concerned a tiny minority. Though months of efforts to crush the uprising by mass killing and indiscriminate destruction had failed, al-Assad clung to the failed recipe.
Commentators had wondered where the third speech might be held. The hall of the Council of Governments no longer fit the purpose if only because Syria has ceased to have a government in the normal sense. Two changes of prime minister, the defection of a prime minister and reshuffles caused by defections and/or assassination have transformed the Council of Ministers into an empty shell. Today, to the extent that Syria could be said to have a government it consists of Bashar al-Assad and his kitchen cabinet including his wife, brother, and mother.
The parliament was also out as venue for a presidential speech.
Many members have simply vanished, some joining the opposition or seeking shelter in exile. It is not even clear if the discredited organ could conjure a quorum for a plenary session.
So, where could al-Assad make another speech? The question had prompted speculation for weeks. Since no one had seen the president in public since June, there were rumours that he had fled to his Alawite stronghold or was hiding in the mountains.
However, when revealed, the venue chosen for the latest presidential speech fit the bill perfectly.
The third speech was made in the Damascus Opera House, closed since last May when Russian musician Viktor Babenkov was billed for a recital.
Was al-Assad following Babenkov with a partition composed in Moscow?
The question is not fanciful.
Al-Assad’s analysis of the dire situation in Syria included echoes of Russian propaganda. The uprising was the work of “terrorists financed, armed and manipulated by the West”, al-Assad claimed. There was no point in talking to the rebels; he would rather talk to their “masters” in the West.
Some Western analysts believe that al-Assad’s rejection of peaceful transition is prompted by Russia and that the key to any solution lies in Moscow. I don’t believe that is the case. Russia no longer has the influence it once had as the Soviet Union. Today, Russia is operating as an opportunist power, seeking a say in Syria’s future without making a big political investment. Even if Russia abandoned al-Assad, he would not throw in the towel unless he is convinced that the game is up for him.Al-Assad’s analysis is the mirror image of the mistake made by Western analysts. He is proposing negotiations with the West, actually meaning the United States, because he wrongly believes Washington writes the score for the Syrian uprising.
However, even if Washington asked the Syrian opposition to accept al-Assad in some capacity, it is doubtful that key segments of the uprising would agree. In the same way, even if Moscow asked al-Assad to leave, it is not certain he would do so. The crisis in Syria has fond a momentum of its own that no outside power, or combination of powers, can modulate let alone stop.
The fate of Syria is in the hands of Syrians. Outsiders could help shorten the deadly crisis by supporting the uprising in a massive way, enough to counter al-Assad’s military machine.
Paradoxically, by rejecting feelers put out to him for a negotiated transition, al-Assad may have forced the Western powers into that direction.
Assad’s libretto at the Opera House the other night may have had a farcical tone. But it may well lead to a tragic denouement for him.

The Muslim Sisterhood has no official leadership – MB founder’s daughter
By Safaa Azab/Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – In an exclusive statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Muslim Brotherhood official spokesman, Dr. Mahmoud Ghozlan, denied that any Brotherhood-affiliated women’s group was present in the United Arab Emirates. In fact, Dr. Ghozlan denied the existence of any Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated women’s group, stressing that no such group exists even in Egypt. He also confirmed that the Muslim Brotherhood had not received any information regarding reports of the arrest of a number of women affiliated with the Islamic movement in the UAE.
On Wednesday, UAE Attorney General, Salim Saeed Kubaish, announced that as part of investigations into members of a “secret organization” accused of seeking to “seize power in the country” and “damage social harmony and peace”, Emirati authorities have started investigating “female leaders of what is called the Women’s Branch of this organization.” This comes after the UAE claimed to have uncovered an “Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood cell” last week, arresting 11 Egyptian nationals.
For his part, Dr. Ghozlan denied the existence of any women’s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, informing Asharq Al-Awsat that the women arrested are most likely female relatives or wives of Emirati nationals arrested in this case and have no relation to the 11 Egyptians arrested earlier this week. He stressed that when the Muslim Brotherhood was founded this was established as a male-only organization and the establishment of a “Muslim Sisterhood” group was avoided in order to protect them from risks.
The official Emirati state news agency, WAM, quoted UAE Attorney General, Salim Saeed Kubaish, as saying that the female suspects had been summoned for questioning by UAE authorities. He added that this would take place “with full respect for the rights to privacy, the norms and traditions of UAE society and in line with the rules and principles of Islamic Sharia law.” Kubaish also claimed that the “women’s branch” represented an “essential part of the overall structure of this secret organization” adding “the law does not differentiate between people on the basis of gender…men and women are equal before the law.”
Reports of the arrest of women-affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood organization in the UAE stirred national and international controversy, particularly regarding the claims of a “Muslim Sisterhood” particularly in the parent organization. Numerous questions were raised regarding this issue, including whether this Muslim Sisterhood organization possess a fixed administrative structure or active leadership as is the case with the parent Muslim Brotherhood organization.
Asharq Al-Awsat attempted to uncover the truth behind the alleged Muslim Sisterhood movement, however many women with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood refused to comment, saying they had no knowledge of the events in the UAE. For her part, Kamilia Helmy, a member of the Freedom and Justice Party’s Executive Bureau and President of the International Islamic Women’s Committee, refused to confirm or deny the existence of a Muslim Sisterhood organization, saying that it is for the Brotherhood’s Guidance Office to officially comment on this. Despite her refusal to comment on the record, she could not hide her astonishment and shock regarding the UAE’s reported arrest of a Muslim Brotherhood “women’s branch”. She told Asharq Al-Awsat “is there such a group in Egypt in the first place for one to be in the UAE?” She added “this represents new problems against the Brotherhood.”
Speaking exclusively to Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr. Istishhad al-Banna – daughter of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna – confirmed that the Brotherhood affiliated women’s organization is a normal family organization between sisters who meet together, attending meetings similar to those of the Muslim Brotherhood, however she expressly denied the presence of an “organization” in the traditional meaning of the word, where there is a structure and leadership in place to counter arrests and security raids.
The daughter of the Muslim Brotherhood founder stressed that this “Sisterhood” played an important role within the Brotherhood’s organization, particularly during times when their husbands have been arrested or imprisoned. She added that Zaynab al-Ghazali is probably the most famous member of the Muslim Sisterhood, but stressed that any Muslim Sisterhood is not parallel to the Muslim Brotherhood organization.
Dr. Istishhad al-Banna also expressed her astonishment at the position taken by the UAE towards the Muslim Brotherhood, characterizing this as insulting. She also criticized the publication of a picture of her father – Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna – kissing the hand of the King, denying that this had ever happened. She added that history will judge everybody and will bring justice to her father, adding that he had “changed the world.”
As for how Muslim Sisterhood members communicate with other female Muslims across the world, whether in the UAE or elsewhere, she confirmed that this takes place in a normal manner as part of communication between families in every country. Dr. al-Banna also told Asharq Al-Awsat that she is personally in contact with Muslim women in numerous countries. Although she is not a member of the Freedom and Justice party – the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood – she said that she is happy to provide any assistance she can to the party, as well as other parties on the Egyptian scene whose political outlook she shares.
For the past 60 years women have played important roles within the Muslim Brotherhood organization, particularly during difficult times in the Islamist movement’s history. The rise to prominence of a number of women leaders within the organization during this period confirms this role. This can be seen in the presence of figures like Zaynab al-Ghazali and Fatima Abdel-Hadi who formed the first women’s committee in the Muslim Brotherhood organization.
Zaynab al-Ghazali was a prominent Egyptian activist and founder of the Muslim Women’s Association. Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna had initially invited her to merge her organization with the nascent Brotherhood’s movement; although she refused, preferring to secure her organizations’ independence, she did swear allegiance to him. Following al-Banna’s assassination, al-Ghazali played a prominent role in helping the Brotherhood regroup. As a result of this, she was imprisoned in 1965, sentenced to 25 years hard labor but was eventually released by President Sadat in 1971. While Fatima Abdel-Hadi was the wife of well-known Brotherhood figure Sheikh Mohamed Yusuf Hawash, who was executed alongside Sayyid Qutb during the Nasserite era. She also played a prominent role in the Brotherhood’s early days, particularly regarding the first seeds of women’s activism within the Brotherhood organization. This began with religious studies lessons for a group of women in 1942; the group was made up of Zaynab al-Ghazali, Fatima Abdel-Hadi, Amina al-Gohari, Fatima al-Badri and others. However it later expanded to include social services such as nursing, helping orphans and the poor, and even helping single Muslim Brotherhood members find wives.
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leaders denied that the organization had any ties to the women reportedly arrested in the UAE. The Muslim Brotherhood official website has largely avoided this case, simply posting a brief report from a Gulf-based Human Rights organization condemning the arrests, including a report from a site calling for political reform in the UAE which published a statement on behalf of the families of the detainees condemning the manner that the wives of the accused have been arrested, denouncing the “escalation” in the UAE detainees case.
Previously, Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood lawyer, Abdel-Moneim Abdel-Maksoud, issued a statement denouncing the arrest of the women, describing this as an unjustifiable escalation. He also confirmed that the Brotherhood will seek to hold talks with official Egyptian parties to discuss what steps should be taken in this regard, adding that this case sets a dangerous precedent and violates all red-lines.
At a meeting in Dubai on Wednesday, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohamed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum reportedly told senior Egyptian President Adviser Essam Hassan and Egyptian Intelligence chief Mohamed Shahata that releasing the 11 Muslim Brotherhood members detained last week would not be possible. This came after Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Mahmoud Ghozlan told AFP that the arrest were part of an “unjust campaign” against expat Egyptians, adding that most of them were doctors or engineers.

Murder of Kurdish activists’ possible inside job
By Thaer Abbas/London, Asharq Al-Awsat – Three Kurdish political activists were killed overnight yesterday inside the Kurdish Information Centre in Paris, including a co-founder of the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK], which has been designated a terrorist organization by a number of states and organization, including the UN, NATO and Turkey. French Interior Minister Manuel Valls, said the deaths were “without doubt an execution”, whilst Ankara portrayed the attack as being the result of “an internal feud.”
A Turkish official informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the operation may have been an attempt from inside the PKK to derail peace talks with Ankara. Turkey is currently holding talks with jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to push for its disarmament in return for improving the Kurdish community’s situation in the country. Experts in Kurdish affairs have stated that there are several hypotheses regarding the motive behind attack, including internal conflict within the PKK, personal motives or even an attempt by the Turkish ultra-nationalist “Grey Wolves” youth organization to incite chaos within the PKK ranks.
The three victims were PKK founder Sakine Cansiz, Kurdish Information Centre Media director Fidan Dogan and Kurdish activist Leyla Soylemez. The three Kurdish activists were reportedly shot in the head, whilst the French police believe that the murder weapon was fitted with a silencer. French investigators gave no immediate indication as to who might be behind the murders.
The PKK issued a statement on Friday saying that it would hold France responsible if it failed to get to the bottom of the attack. An official statement on the website of the armed wing of the PKK read “The targeting of three of our female comrades at a time like this is a premeditated, planned and organized attack. France has a responsibility to elucidate these killings immediately. Otherwise, they will be held responsible for the massacre of our comrades.”
French Interior Minister Manuel Valls, speaking at the scene of the crime on Thursday, stressed “rest assured that French authorities are determined to get to the bottom of these unbearable acts”, adding that this was “without a doubt an execution.”
For his part, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that while investigations into the murders need to be completed before a definitive conclusion can be reached, evidence so far points to an inside job, particularly as the building was secured by a coded look which could only be opened by insiders.
The state-run Anatolian news agency quoted Erdogan as saying “those three people opened it. No doubt, they wouldn’t open it to people they didn’t know.” Whilst Huseyin Celilk, deputy chairman of Turkey’s ruling party, opined that the attack appeared to be the result of “an internal feud.”
French Kurdish sources informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the district where this crime took place enjoys 24-hour CCTV coverage and round-the-clock security. The source added that France’s Kurdish community is “shocked” and demanding that the French authorities “take what happened seriously.”
The French Kurdish source also revealed that a senior French counter-terrorist official that 8 French security commissioners had been tasked with monitoring Kurdish groups in France.
Immediately following the announcement of the murders, a crowd of Kurds gathered behind police lines at the Paris Kurdish institute, chanting slogans and waving yellow flags bearing the likeness of Abdullah Ocalan. They chanted “we are all the PKK” and “The Turks are killers and Hollande is their partner.”
A Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman comprehensively denied any Turkish involvement in the assassination, informing Asharq Al-Awsat that such accusations “are not based on any facts or realities.”
Whilst senior Turkish presidential adviser Arshet Hormozlo told Asharq Al-Awsat that the attack “was either score-settling or an attempt to derail the peace talks.” He added “it is premature to make any accusations at this point, but what happened recently regarding the openness in the Kurdish issue it is as if this operation was an attempt to derail the peace talks.” Hormozlo also asserted that assassination operations “are not a practice of Turkey, which is a state of institutions, whilst this is also not in Turkey’s interests at a time when it is pursuing an approach of democratic openness in the Kurdish file.”
Sakine Cansiz was a senior member of the PKK, leading the Kurdish protest movement inside Turkey’s infamous Diyarbakir prison and then taking up the armed struggle upon her release, fighting in northern Iraq under the command of Osman Ocalan. She later took control of the group’s civil affairs in Europe. A 1995 picture shows her standing next to PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, dressed in battle fatigues and clutching an assault rifle.