Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai says arms should be limited to the state
January 06, 2013/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Lebanese citizens have the right to live in safety and their state entitled to have sole authority over weapons in the country, Cardinal Beshara Rai said Sunday. “Lebanese have the right to a life of security, and not security by consent or under the mercy of arms,” Rai said, speaking from Bkirki. “Arms should be restricted to the military, security and constitutional institutions,” he added. Rival politicians have for years fought over the issue of weapons outside the state’s authority. The head of the Maronite church also reiterated the need for National Dialogue, the formation of a new Cabinet and for politicians to agree on an electoral law to govern the upcoming parliamentary elections. “The Lebanese are in need of Dialogue at the national level. They also have the right to have an effective Cabinet that endorses unity and achieves national reconciliation,” he said. Rai’s comments come a day after President Michel Sleiman cancelled for the second time the National Dialogue session planned for next week. Sleiman has repeatedly tried to get politicians back to the National Dialogue table amid a political crisis following the assassination of a top security official in November. His office said Saturday that no other date has been set for the upcoming session. The opposition March 14 coalition has boycotted the all-party talks, insisting that the prime minister step down and that a neutral salvation cabinet be formed to oversee the 2013 elections. The opposition’s stance was triggered by the Oct. 19 assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, who headed the police’s Information branch. They hold Syria responsible for the killing and say the Lebanese government provided the cover needed for the incident to take place. Rai has called for the formation of a government to oversee the upcoming elections, which is expected to be held in June of this year. During the Mass Sunday, Rai said the people deserved a “new and fair” electoral law. “They [Lebanese] also have the right to a new and fair electoral law that ensures them the right to vote freely and elect the representatives without having [representatives] imposed on them,” the Christian leader said. Rai rejects holding the upcoming elections on the basis of the “1960 law” – a qada-based, winner-takes-all-system that was used in the previous parliamentary polls. Rival lawmakers are expected to resume next week discussions on draft electoral laws. Rai also urged Sunday that political division in the country end. “The Lebanese have the right for the political divisions in the country to end,” he said.

Relatives of Lebanese killed in Syria block north crossing
January 06, 2013/The Daily Star /TRIPOLI, Lebanon: The relatives of Lebanese fighters who were recently killed in an ambush in Syria held a protest Sunday and briefly blocked the northern Lebanese border crossing of Arida. Traffic was at a standstill in the early hours of the morning as demonstrators used buses to block the border crossing to Syria. The relatives called for the release of Hasan Srour, who they say Syrian authorities are holding onto. Srour, they allege, had been in Syria trying to convince his brother Hussein, who was killed in an ambush, to return to Lebanon. In November, over a dozen Salafist fighters from north Lebanon were reportedly killed in Syria’s Tal Kalakh. Syria has so far handed over the bodies of nine of the Lebanese fighters. On Sunday, the relatives, who have held several protests in recent days, also called for the expulsion of Syria’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Abdel-Karim Ali. “We demand the expulsion of the Syrian ambassador to Lebanon,” said Sheikh Mohammad Ibrahim, a spokesperson for the families. “No authority will protect you and you will soon stand behind bars,” warned Ibrahim, addressing Ali. As well as calling for the release of Srour, the relatives also insist that DNA testing be conducted on the body of another fighter they say remains in Syria. The body, they claim, belongs to a fighter named Mohammad Rifai. The mother of Hasan Srour urged political leaders Saturday to exert efforts to secure the release of her son and ensure he returned home.
“I particularly ask General Security chief [Maj. Gen.] Abbas Ibrahim to help in the case as he has helped in retrieving the body of my other son from Syria before,” Amina Srour told the National News Agency Saturday.
She later told LBCI that Hasan was never involved in any political or religious movement and had been in Syria to convince his brother to return home. Srour said that only her deceased son, Hussein, was a member of the fighters. The NNA reported that the family of Rifai also urged Ibrahim to follow up on the case of their loved one. The family pinned their hopes on the efforts by the Lebanese state to resolve the matter, it added.
After the third stage of repatriating the bodies was over, the general security said that it would continue to follow up on the case. The state-run agency reported Saturday that the head of General Security offered his assurances to Srour that he would work toward the release of her son.

Arab Foreign Ministers to Hold Meeting on Syrian Refugees in Lebanon on January 13
Naharnet /Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour was informed on Sunday of the Arab League's agreement to hold a meeting on the case of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The emergency meeting, made at Lebanon's request, will be held on January 13 and will include Arab foreign ministers. The meeting will tackle aid the members of the Arab League could present Lebanon to help it tackle the burden on the refugees fleeing Syria and its regime's crackdown against protesters. Mansour revealed that he will present during the upcoming two days a comprehensive file on the case of the refugees and their needs, reported the National News Agency. The Lebanese government had repeatedly stated that it could not longer support the burden of refugees flooding the country from Syria. According to the latest report issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 170,637 Syrian refugees have been registered in Lebanon while reports say that around 50,000 are still not registered. The cabinet agreed on Thursday to urge the Arab League and international organizations to hold extraordinary meetings to highlight the situation of the refugees.

Lebanon's Social Affairs Minister Wael Abou FaourRejects Formation of Committee that 'Hands Syrian Opposition Refugees to Regime'
Naharnet /Social Affairs Minister Wael Abou Faour stated that the recent proposal to establish a joint Lebanese-Syrian committee to deal with the conditions of the Syrian refugees “has raised fears in Lebanon,” reported the daily An Nahar on Sunday.
He told the daily: “We refuse the formation of a committee that may lead to handing over of Syrian opposition members to the Syrian regime.”
To that end, he revealed that he had contacted President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Najib Miqati, and Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour to clarify claims of the formation of such a committee.
The foreign minister denied reports that such a body would be formed, said the minister.
“This proposal entails holding talks with a side that is behind the Syrian crisis,” said Abou Faour in indirect reference to the Syrian regime.
On the possible formation of the joint committee, he noted: “We are not in need of another issue that will cause more political disputes.”
“The current debates should lead us to affirm our position in dealing with the refugee file from a humanitarian approach and away from politics,” he stressed.
On aid to the refugees fleeing Syria to Lebanon, the minister revealed that Germany is committed to granting $20 million in aid to the displaced, while the European Union is seeking to make a “sizable” donation, the bulk of which will be directed to the refugees in Lebanon.
In addition, Kuwait is preparing to hold a meeting for donor countries in order to present more aid to the refugees, he said.
Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) reported on Friday that Lebanon is seeking to establish a joint Lebanese-Syrian committee to deal with the conditions of the Syrian refugees across the country. It said that Mansour discussed with Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul Karim Ali a proposal to establish the committee that will be tasked with tackling the issue of Syrian refugees. According to the latest report issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 170,637 Syrian refugees have been registered in Lebanon while reports say that around 50,000 are still not registered.
The cabinet agreed on Thursday to urge the Arab League and international organizations to hold extraordinary meetings to highlight the situation of the refugees.
Mansour had also called on Arab League General Secretary Nabil al-Arabi to hold an urgent session to support Lebanon's efforts to aid the refugees on its territories.
Arabi informed him that he will perform all necessary calls with Arab ministers to hold a meeting on the situation of refugees in Lebanon in the coming days.

Jumblat: Talks with Suleiman, Miqati Addressed Ways to End Crisis Given Halt of Dialogue
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat stated that the meeting he held on Friday with President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Miqati was an opportunity to assess the local and Arab situations, reported the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat on Sunday.
He told the daily: “Talks focused on finding ways to end the political crisis in Lebanon given the halt of the national dialogue.”
Asked if specific measures had been devised to resume the all-party talks, the MP replied: “We addressed all issues that may lead to ending the deadlock.”
A presidential palace statement on Friday revealed that Suleiman had informed the national dialogue participants of the postponement of Monday's session without setting a new date. The decision came following a meeting the president held on Friday night with Prime Minister Najib Miqati and Jumblat.
Meanwhile, Suleiman's visitors on Saturday informed al-Hayat that the president “failed in convincing the members of the March 14 opposition of returning to the national dialogue.” “The issue is out of his hands seeing as it is difficult to persuade all political factions to resume communication between each other,” they added.
“The president will not hold one-sided dialogue,” they explained.The opposition announced its boycott of the national dialogue and called for the resignation of Miqati's government following the October 19 assassination of Internal Security Forces Intelligence Bureau chief Wissam al-Hasan after it blamed the cabinet for the murder.The visitors told An Nahar in remarks published on Sunday that Suleiman will continue his contacts with various powers in order to maintain dialogue between them “should these talks not be held at the dialogue table.”“He will not end these efforts because he believes that dialogue is a necessity and its halt threatens the whole of Lebanon,” they stressed.The president will not schedule a new dialogue session until after he holds contacts with all concerned sides during the upcoming two weeks.
“Their receptiveness to these efforts will determine his future move,” explained the visitors.

EU says Iran not responded to nuclear talks proposal
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has proposed a time and place for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, but Iran has yet to respond, an EU spokesman said on Friday. Iran said earlier on Friday it had agreed to resume talks in January with six major powers - represented by the EU - but the EU spokesman said Tehran had not yet replied to proposals made on December 31. "We offered dates and a venue, but we are still waiting to hear back from Iran," said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton, who leads negotiations on behalf of the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and China. Mann declined to say which dates and venue the EU had proposed. The countries involved in the talks - particularly in the West - want to rein in Iran's uranium enrichment work - which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes only but which produces material which, if processed further, can be used to make nuclear bombs. There was no breakthrough in three rounds of talks since April 2012. But neither side has been willing to break off totally, partly because of concerns this could lead to war if Israel attacks Iran - something it has threatened to do if the Islamic Republic looks close to getting nuclear weapons
(Reporting By Sebastian Moffett; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

Bolstered by 16 Russian warships, Assad nixes dialogue with “Western puppets”
DEBKAfile Special Report January 6, 2013/With a buildup of 16 Russian warships carrying thousands of marines on the Syrian coast “to deter the West from deploying ground forces in Syria,” Syrian Bashar Assad could afford to brazen it out in his first public speech in seven months. Speaking at the Damascus opera house, Sunday, Jan. 6, Assad said Syria no longer takes dictation from anyone and called on Syrian citizens to defend the country against “a war fought by only a handful of Syrians and many foreigners.”
He rejected dialogue with the opposition which he referred to as “puppets fabricated by the West.”
DEBKA-Net-Weekly, in its latest issue of Jan. 4, revealed that both Washington and Moscow may be encouraging the rush to Syria of al Qaeda and other radical Islamist fighters so as to put them in harm’s way on the Syrian battlefield instead of their staying home to make trouble in Asian, European and other Middle East countries.
On this point, Assad remarked: “The West tried to get rid of these terrorists by drawing them into conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places, but were unsuccessful. Now they are sending them to Syria. “
The Syrian ruler went on to maintain that it would not be too hard to get rid of them, if “all citizens are mobilized against these outside forces.” It was important, too, he said, to fight the terrorists’ ideas, before they permeated Syrian society. He vowed to fight terror “so long as a single terrorist remains in the country" and to combat the rebels fighting to overthrow his regime, whom he called “terrorists” and “criminals” who "harbor al Qaeda’s extremist ideology." debkafile: Assad’s emphasis on this point indicates he counts on his war against Islamist terrorism as a long-term insurance policy for bolstering his regime’s survival.
In Moscow, a senior military spokesman announced that Russian vessels, including battleships and landing craft carrying marines and military vehicles, would remain in Syrian waters until Easter. He said quite candidly that the presence of Russian marines near Syrian waters “will deter the West from deploying ground forces in Syria." The Russian flotilla and marines are intended to be the counterweight to the six NATO Patriot missile interceptors, the US, Germany and Holland have installed on the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia along with Iran is providing Assad with a strong military shield, which is supplemented by Chinese diplomatic support.
The Syrian ruler’s speech Sunday was therefore far more upbeat than his last address in June. Then, he defended himself against pressing international demands to step down by vowing to “live and die in Syria.” In this speech, he makes no mention of resigning or throwing in the towel. In contrast to current predictions of his downfall, to be found in Western and Israeli media, Assad felt secure enough to set out his blueprint for ending the Syrian conflict. The first stage of a political solution would require that “the regional powers stop funding and arming the opposition” – a reference to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Western powers.
He then invited “those who have not betrayed Syria” to a conference of reconciliation, followed by a referendum on a new constitution, the formation of a government and an amnesty.
He rejected the Syrian opposition movement as “puppets fabricated by the West,” and said that Syria wanted to negotiate with the "master not the servants."

Syrian president outlines new peace initiative, says funding for rebels must stop first
By Bassem Mroue, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press
BEIRUT - Syrian President Bashar Assad on Sunday outlined his vision for a road map to end nearly 22 months of violence in Syria but also struck a defiant tone, calling on his countrymen to unite against "murderous criminals" whom he said are carrying out a foreign plot seeking to tear the nation apart. In a one-hour speech to the nation in which he appeared confident and relaxed, Assad ignored international demands for him to step down and said he is ready to hold a dialogue but only with those "who have not betrayed Syria." He offered a national reconciliation conference, elections and a new constitution but demanded regional and Western countries stop funding and arming rebels trying to overthrow him first.
The proposal, however, is unlikely to win acceptance from Syria's opposition forces, including rebels on the ground, who have repeatedly said they will accept nothing less than the president's departure, dismissing any kind of settlement that leaves him in the picture. On top of that, Assad's new initiative is reminiscent of symbolic changes and concessions that his government made earlier in the uprising, which were rejected at the time as too little too late. Speaking at the Opera House in central Damascus, Assad told the hall packed with his supporters that "we are in a state of war. We are fighting an external aggression that is more dangerous than any others, because they use us to kill each other." "It is a war between the nation and its enemies, between the people and the murderous criminals," he added. The audience frequently broke out in cheers and applause.
Assad has rarely spoken since the uprising against his rule began in March 2011, and his speech Sunday was his first since June. His last public comments were in an interview in November to Russian TV in which he vowed to die in Syria. On Sunday, he seemed equally confident in his troops' ability to crush the rebels fighting his rule, even as they edge in closer than ever to his seat of power, Damascus.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Assad's speech was "beyond hypocritical." In a message posted on his official Twitter feed, Hague said "empty promises of reform fool no one."
Wearing a suit and tie, the president spoke before a collage of pictures of what appeared to be Syrians who have been killed since March 2011.
At the end of his speech and as he was leaving the hall, he was mobbed by a group of loyalists shouting: "With our blood and souls we redeem you, Bashar!"
The president in turn waved and blew kisses to the crowd on his way out. Assad, in his speech, acknowledged the enormous impact of the nation's conflict, which the United Nations recent estimated had killed more than 60,000 people. "We meet today and suffering is overwhelming Syrian land. There is no place for joy in any corner of the country in the absence of security and stability," he said. "I look at the eyes of Syria's children and I don't see any happiness." The Internet was cut in many parts of Damascus ahead of the address, apparently for security reasons.
As in previous speeches, Assad said his forces were fighting groups of "murderous criminals" and jihadi elements and denied that there was an uprising against his family's decades-long rule.
He stressed the presence of religious extremists and jihadi elements among those fighting in Syria, calling them "terrorists who carry the ideology of al-Qaeda" and "servants who know nothing but the language of slaughter."
He struck a defiant tone, saying Syria will not take dictates from anyone and urged his countrymen to unite to save the nation.
Outlining his peace initiative, he said: "The first part of a political solution would require regional powers to stop funding and arming (the rebels), an end to terrorism and controlling the borders."
He said this would then be followed by dialogue and a national reconciliation conference and the formation of a wide representative government which would then oversee new elections, a new constitution and general amnesty.
However, Assad made clear his offer to hold a dialogue is not open to those whom he considers extremists or carrying out a foreign agenda.
"We never rejected a political solution ... but with whom should we talk? With those who have extremist ideology who only understand the language of terrorism?" he said.
"Or should we with negotiate puppets whom the West brought? ... We negotiate with the master not with the slave."As in previous speeches and interviews, he clung to the view that the crisis in Syria was a foreign-backed agenda and said it was not an uprising against his rule."Is this a revolution and are these revolutionaries? By God, I say they are a bunch of criminals," he said.

Assad "peace plan" greeted with scorn by foes
By Peter Graff and Erika Solomon
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad rejected peace talks with his enemies on Sunday in a defiant speech that his opponents described as a renewed declaration of war.
Although the speech was billed as the unveiling of a new peace plan, Assad offered no concessions and even appeared to harden many of his positions. He rallied Syrians for "a war to defend the nation" and disparaged the prospect of negotiations. "We do not reject political dialogue ... but with whom should we hold a dialogue? With extremists who don't believe in any language but killing and terrorism?" Assad asked supporters who packed Damascus Opera House for his first speech since June. "Should we speak to gangs recruited abroad that follow the orders of foreigners? Should we have official dialogue with a puppet made by the West, which has scripted its lines?" It was his first public speech to an audience in six months. Since the last, rebels have reached the capital's outskirts. George Sabra, vice president of the opposition National Coalition, told Reuters the peace plan Assad put at the heart of his speech did "not even deserve to be called an initiative":
"We should see it rather as a declaration that he will continue his war against the Syrian people," he said.
"The appropriate response is to continue to resist this unacceptable regime and for the Free Syrian Army to continue its work in liberating Syria until every inch of land is free."
The speech was seen by many as a response to U.N. mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, who has been meeting U.S. and Russian officials to try to narrow differences between Washington and Moscow over a peace plan. Brahimi also met Assad in Syria late last month.
"Lakhdar Brahimi must feel foolish after that Assad speech, where his diplomacy is dismissed as intolerable intervention," said Rana Kabbani, a Syrian analyst who supports the opposition.
The United States, European Union, Turkey and most Arab states have called on Assad to quit. Russia, which sells arms to and leases a naval base from Syria, says it backs a transition of power but that Assad's departure should not be a precondition for any talks.
REPETITIONS
Assad's foreign foes were scornful and dismissive of the speech: "His remarks are just repetitions of what he's said all along," said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.
"It seems he's locked himself up in a room and only reads the intelligence reports presented to him."
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said "empty promises of reform fool no one". In a Twitter message, he added: "Death, violence and oppression engulfing Syria are of his own making."
EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said Brussels would "look carefully if there is anything new in the speech, but we maintain our position that Assad has to step aside and allow for a political transition".
The 47-year-old Assad, tall and mustachioed, in a business suit and tie, spoke confidently for about an hour before a crowd of cheering loyalists, who occasionally interrupted him to shout and applaud, at one point raising their fists and chanting: "With blood and soul we sacrifice for you, oh Bashar!"
At the end of the speech, supporters rushed to the stage, mobbing him and shouting: "God, Syria and Bashar is enough!" as a smiling president waved and was escorted from the hall past a backdrop showing a Syrian flag made of pictures of people whom state television described as "martyrs" of the conflict so far.
"We are now in a state of war in every sense of the word," Assad said in the speech, broadcast on Syrian state television. "This war targets Syria using a handful of Syrians and many foreigners. Thus, this is a war to defend the nation."
Independent media are largely barred from Damascus.
Giving the speech in the opera house, in a part of central Damascus that has been hit by rebel attacks, could be intended as a show of strength by a leader whose public appearances have grown rarer as the rebellion has gathered force.
Critics saw irony in the venue: "Assad speech appropriately made in Opera House!" tweeted Rami Khouri, a commentator for Lebanon's Daily Star newspaper. "It was operatic in its other-worldly fantasy, unrelated to realities outside the building."
DEATHS
The United Nations says 60,000 people have been killed in the civil war, the longest and bloodiest of the conflicts to emerge in two years of revolts in Arab states.
Rebels now control much of the north and east of the country, a crescent of suburbs on the outskirts of the capital and the main border crossings with Turkey in the north.
But Assad's forces are still firmly in control of most of the densely populated southwest, the main north-south highway and the Mediterranean coast. The army also holds military bases throughout the country from which its helicopters and jets can strike rebel-held areas with impunity, making it impossible for the insurgents to consolidate their grip on territory they hold.
Assad, an eye doctor, has ruled since 2000, succeeding his late father Hafez, who had seized power in a 1970 coup.
The rebels are drawn mainly from Syria's Sunni Muslim majority, while Assad, a member of the Alawite sect related to Shi'ite Islam, is supported by some members of religious minorities who fear retribution if he falls.
The conflict has heightened confrontation in the Middle East between Shi'ite Iran and Sunni Arab rulers, particularly those in the Gulf who are allied with the West against Tehran.
The plan unveiled in Sunday's speech could hardly have been better designed to ensure its rejection by the opposition. Among its proposals: rebels would first be expected to halt operations before the army would cease fire, a certain non-starter.
Assad also repeatedly emphasized rebel links to al Qaeda and other Sunni Islamist radicals. Washington has also labeled one of the main rebel groups a terrorist organization and says it is linked to the network founded by Osama bin Laden.
Diplomacy has been largely irrelevant so far in the conflict, with Moscow vetoing U.N. resolutions against Assad.
U.N. mediator Brahimi has been trying to bridge the gap, meeting senior U.S. and Russian officials to discuss his own peace proposal, which does not explicitly mention Assad's fate.
National Coalition spokesman Walid Bunni said Assad's speech appeared timed to prevent a breakthrough in those talks, by taking a position that could not be reconciled with diplomacy.
"The talk by Brahimi and others that there could be a type of political solution being worked out has prompted him to come out and tell the others 'I won't accept a solution'," Bunni said, adding that Assad feared any deal would mean his downfall.
(Additional reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, Gulsen Solaker in Ankara and Tim Castle in London; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

Head of Libya's parliament survives assassination attempt
TRIPOLI (Reuters) - The head of Libya's parliament survived an assassination attempt unharmed at his home in the remote desert interior of the country, his spokesman said on Sunday. Mohamed al-Magariaf's residence in Sabha, 800 km (500 miles) south of the capital Tripoli, came under gunfire on Thursday evening. "(He) was unharmed and escaped the attack but three of his guards were injured," spokesman Rasmy Burwein said. Magariaf was in Sabha for meetings with local officials and community leaders after Tripoli declared the region a closed military zone to try to curb rampant lawlessness. Sabha and the rest of the Saharan south has been plagued by tribal violence since the start of the armed uprising in 2011 that ousted and killed veteran dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Tribal power is much stronger in the south than on the Mediterranean coast. Porous borders with neighboring states and the easy availability of arms have turned the south into a security headache for a weak central government. It is still struggling to curb a myriad of armed militias that emerged powerful from the anti-Gaddafi insurgency. (Reporting by Ali Shuaib; Writing by Hadeel Al-Shalchi; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Uprooting al-Maliki: mission impossible
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
When Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was asked about the demonstrations staged against him in Baghdad last year, he replied that it was Iraq that started the Arab Spring. This is reminiscent of Bashar al-Assad’s statement to the Wall Street Journal, a few weeks after the Syrian revolution erupted, in which he claimed he was not concerned about the protests because Syria represents the resistance front against Israel.
The Arab Spring did not start in Iraq nor is Syria a resistance front. Even if either of these two statements were right, this is not what matters. What matters is what the people there think.
Al-Maliki’s only concern is staying in power, but he is facing several challenges, one of which being that he is his second and final term in office. He tried to modify the constitution in order to engineer a third term but failed, and now he might not even last until the end of this term. This is why he is now trying to look for other solutions, such as dissolving the parliament before it votes against him, or holding early elections.
Today, Sunday, could be the beginning of the first battle. Al-Maliki, who failed to secure the majority vote in the 2010 elections, came to power as part of a coalition with the support of the Shiites and the Sunni Kurds. Those alliances have, however, changed and al-Maliki is now willing to ally with his enemies, whether Shiite Sadrists or the Sunni Arabs. Yet the latter are already engaged in demonstrations against him, especially following the accusations levelled against Finance Minister Rafea al-Eissawi, a prominent Sunni figure. In fact, al-Maliki has alienated almost every Sunni leader and is on the verge of a confrontation with the Kurds in the north, apparently due to Iran’s desire to forge a route into Syria in order to rescue al-Assad’s besieged regime. Al-Maliki’s main concern is to monopolize power, and so he has also marginalized Shiite leaders like Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the wise politician Adel Abdul Mahdi. He is getting ever closer to Iran and is willing to do anything in order to stay in power.
It is important to note that Maliki’s position is unrivalled by any president or king, possibly anywhere else in the world, for he has sole authority over all key ministries and entities including security, intelligence, the armed forces, finance, the central bank, the media, the judiciary, and the policy of “de-baathification.” Currently, he is trying to seize control of the anti-corruption bodies, and the list goes on.
When the deputy prime minister said in an interview with CNN that al-Maliki was a dictator, he was immediately dismissed. When al-Maliki fell out with Vice President Tarek al-Hashimi, he accused him of terrorism and conspiracy, and jailed his bodyguards. It will be very hard to uproot Maliki from his position whether by constitutional means, i.e. through the parliament, or by demonstrations and civil disobedience. Iraqis are at the beginning of another rocky road that could return them back to square one; back to when Saddam Hussein was in power and the United States lost a trillion dollars and 4,000 of its soldiers in order to get rid of him and his legacy. Al-Maliki will be ousted, but only after he destroys Iraq in a manner similar to al-Assad in Syria.

The "Other" Zawahiri denies reports of arrest in Syria
By Waleed Abdul Rahman
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat - Mohamed al-Zawahiri, brother of Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, has called reports of his arrest in Syria as “an attempt to turn the Islamists into a scarecrow in the eyes of others” confirming to Asharq Al-Awsat yesterday that he remains present in Cairo and has not left the country. Al-Zawahiri, who is one of the founding members of the Salafist Jihadist group in Egypt, stressed that what was reported by western media outlets about his arrest in Syria was completely untrue, describing these reports as “lies and falsehoods.” He asserted that the news of his arrest by the al-Assad regime was “fabricated”, confirming that he has not left the country. He said “I am present in Cairo and I attended my aunt’s funeral [yesterday].” Western media reports claimed that security apparatus affiliated with the al-Assad regime had captured Mohamed al-Zawahiri, brother of Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Deraa in south-west Syria where he was meeting with opposition activists. However Sheikh Mohamed al-Zawahiri, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat from Cairo, stressed that he remains present in Egypt, adding that “the publication of this news is an attempt to keep people in the dark and turn the Islamists into a scarecrow in the eyes of others.” Britain’s The Independent newspaper claimed that Mohamed al-Zawahiri was meeting with Syrian activists in Deraa when he was arrested, adding that the al-Assad regime would likely try to capitalize on his presence in the country “as proof of their repeated charge that the revolution has been taken over by ‘terrorists’.”The report also claimed that “rebel fighters insisted Mohamed al-Zawahiri was engaged on a humanitarian mission and had not been involved in violent acts. They also claimed that he had, in fact, proposed a local truce to enable aid to get through.”As for who he believes responsible for these rumours , al-Zawahiri told Asharq Al-Awsat “the western intelligence agencies are responsible for this” confirming that “their agents are present everywhere.” He added “the western media is the one who spreads such rumors in order to frighten the people.”
Egyptian media observers claimed that the false reports of al-Zawahiri’s capture in Syria were the result of “intelligence leaks to draw attention to the presence of a jihadist trend in Syria made up of Arab mujahedeen, including some from Egypt.” However al-Zawahiri yesterday strongly denied these allegations. The Al Qaeda chief’s brother attended the funeral of his aunt, Dr. Karima al-Zawahiri, at Abu El Makarem Mosque, in Cairo yesterday. Dr. Karima al-Zawahiri was a professor of pediatrics at Cairo University. When asked by Asharq Al-Awsat’s regarding the current situation in Egypt, al-Zawahiri said “the situation in Egypt is getting better” before adding “although it has not met our demands until now to completely implement Islamic Sharia law.” He added “we still remain far from the implementation of Islamic Sharia law; however what we are experiencing now is better than what we experienced in the past, and there is an atmosphere where we are completely free to express our opinions.”However al-Zawahiri stressed “despite this, the implementation of Islamic Sharia law has not happened…and we call for the complete implementation of Islamic Sharia law.” Mohamed al-Zawahiri spent 14 years in Egypt’s prisons on charges relating to the assassination of former president Anwar Sadat in 1981 and other terrorist charges. Following his release, al-Zawahiri stressed that he is currently spending his time attempting to achieve reconciliation between jihadists and other Muslims.
As for his expectations for the forthcoming anniversary of the 25 January revolution, Sheikh al-Zawahiri said “we pray to God that this does not include any clashes or unrest.”
Mohamed al-Zawahiri was the commander of the armed wing of the Islamic Jihad group, however he confirmed that he has renounced violence and is now working as an intermediary between the radical Salafist groups present on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and the Muslim Brotherhood-led government in Cairo. Last year, al-Zawahiri volunteered to mediate negotiations between the US and Islamists.

The crystal ball and the year of many dangers
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
The start of each new year is always an excuse for predicting the way things might turn out. In many cultures the figure 13 is associated with misfortune. However, 2013 is not necessarily doomed to confirm that prejudice.
Since a journalist is not a fortune-teller, and certainly not an historian either, he should steer away from both predictions and narratives of the past. My purpose in this column, therefore, is not to predict the future through any imagined crystal ball. Nevertheless, looking at what is actually happening here and now it may be possible to discover certain trends that might help shape the new year’s events.
The first trend worth noting is the gradual breakdown in world order. Though incomplete, that order had taken shape in the wake of the Cold War with a series of regional balances of power, often implicitly guaranteed by the weight of the American “superpower”. We could see the system working in Latin America, parts of Africa, the Middle East, the Gulf region and the Pacific.
With the US embarking on a strategic retreat under President Barack Obama that system is likely to come under growing pressure, in some cases even breaking down. Obama regards American leadership as a form of arrogance to which he is opposed. His policy of “leading from behind” is the first step towards “leaving by the back door.” Over the next four years, dramatic cuts in the US defense budget could make it hard for any future president to project power effectively.
The American retreat is likely to create vacuums that opportunistic powers will try to fill. In Latin America, three emerging power blocs are setting to compete over influence in the region. The moderate left bloc, led by Brazil, is opting for a cautious distancing of the sub-continent from the giant in the north. A more radical left bloc, led by Venezuela and backed by Russia and Iran, is seeking an effective exclusion of the United States. As Hugo Chavez has said had the US not been located in the American continent it would not have had any place in the new version of the Organisation of American States. A third bloc, including Mexico and Colombia, is still banking on a future return of the US as a major player on the international scene. In the Middle East, most players are already writing the US out. Israel is pushing ahead with its settlement programme in the West Bank, disregarding Washington’s advice not to do so. The Palestinian Authority has already ignored American injunctions and secured observer-state status in the United Nations. Hamas is putting final touches to its silent coup against Fatah, with the clear aim of propelling Khalid Mishal into the chair occupied by Mahmoud Abbas.
The two-state idea, launched by President George W Bush in 2003, may witness its burial under Obama in 2013. Having noted Washington’s confusion during the Arab Spring, the countries concerned are shaping their different trajectories with little regard for American views. Nowhere is the American confusion more dramatically manifested as in Syria. Over six months ago, President Obama made a solemn call for toppling Bashar al-Assad. He is still trying to figure out what he might do about that.
In the Gulf region, Obama is preparing the ground for surrendering to the mullahs of Tehran. Ironically, this could come at a time that the Khomeinist regime, at its most vulnerable phase, desperately needs a foreign policy success to save itself. A deal between Obama and the mullahs would show that a US unwilling to defend its own interest could not be expected to risk defending the interests of erstwhile allies. The Gulf countries would have to re-think defense doctrines that, since the 1940s, have been based on the assumption of American support. A Khomeinist regime armed with nuclear weapons could trigger an atomic arms race in the region.
The vacuum being created by Obama is also felt in the Far East where China and Japan are beating the drums of war. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan might well launch a major military build-up that could include a constitutional amendment to allow the development of nuclear weapons as well. Abe could use such a build up to kick-start an economic upturn, ending more than two decades of flat-lining in Japan.
China for its part is speeding up the building of a blue-water navy to bully neighbours such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan with which it is in irredentist dispute over resource-rich islands and atolls.
Meanwhile, Russia is busy exploiting the Obama retreat to project power in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Eastern Europe while consolidating its alliance with the mullahs in Tehran. For its part, Iran will speed up its attempts to control the political agenda in Iraq while trying to prevent the fall of the al-Assad regime in Syria and the destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon.  In Afghanistan, Iran is allying itself with Russia, India, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to oppose Pakistan’s plans to bring the Taliban back as a major player in Kabul. American absence will also be felt in Europe where, threatened by economic meltdown, the European Union is incapable of halting the recessionary trend of the global economy. In Africa, large chunks of the Sahel appear to be heading for a Somalia-like status while war is brewing among countries surrounding the Great Lakes. Only lack of resources ensures the African continent against the possibility of major wars in 2013. An American global retreat is not necessarily good news for those interested in international peace and stability.
A couple of weeks ago, a German friend, with a long history of European-style anti-Americanism, something very fashionable in leftist circles throughout the Cold War, had this to say: Having shouted “Yankee! Go Home” all my life, now I feel I have to shout: “ Yankee! Come Back!”Well, he may have a point.

The Iraqi Spring and the Iranian Autumn
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat.
The leader of the Sadrist trend, Muqtada al-Sadr, warned that “the Iraqi Spring is coming” after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki threatened to use force to disperse a protest along the international road in Anbar province ten days ago. So is the Iraqi Spring really coming? The simple answer is that the Iraqi Spring will be the Iranian Autumn.
Al-Maliki has not overcome the storm he is facing; rather it has transformed into a hurricane, and those that will fall this time are the Iranians, not the Iraqis. Tehran certainly would not be able to bear the fall of the criminal al-Assad regime and the uprooting of its ally al-Maliki in Iraq, for this would be a tough Iranian Autumn, especially with the Iranian presidential elections around the corner, not to mention other issues soon to come to a head such as the Iranian nuclear program. All this could push Iran to accelerate the fall of al-Maliki, before the fall of al-Assad, by replacing al-Maliki as Iraq’s Prime Minister with another, more acceptable figure. This is what many in Iraq must be alert to, especially some of the Sunnis there. They must distance themselves from such sectarianism and not raise pictures of Saddam Hussein in their protests. Just as al-Sadr warned them himself, and he is right, it is possible to turn the Iraqi storm into a hurricane to uproot al-Maliki, even before he uses the force he is threatening.
Al-Sadr has entered into the anti-Maliki demonstrations, and certainly the Kurds will follow, especially with al-Maliki’s continual threats towards them. Of course the Sadrists and the Kurds understand - along with other Iraqi political forces - the seriousness of what al-Maliki is doing in Iraq. These factors could all force Iran to take a step, along the lines of “jumping before you are pushed”, to replace al-Maliki with another figure capable of achieving the minimum level of Iraqi consensus, especially as al-Maliki has burned his bridges with the bulk of the Iraqi political trends. Iran, which is doing all it can today to prevent the inevitable fall of al-Assad, cannot afford the fall of another strategic ally, Iraq. This would be a difficult blow to take for the mullah’s regime in Iran, which, as noted above, has other important and decisive concerns, whether externally or internally.
The fall of al-Maliki, as threatened by al-Sadr through his claim that “the Iraqi Spring is coming”, means that Iran’s hands in the region will be cut off, and the magic would turn against the magician. Just as Iran thought there would be no Syria without al-Assad, Tehran could soon find itself without any state-level allies in the region, including Iraq and Syria.
Thus, as long as the active Iraqi parties mobilize in a coordinated manner, and with al-Maliki countering the demonstrations with force, and some of the Sunnis in Iraq realizing that the time now requires intelligence not emotion, especially when it comes to raising pictures of Saddam Hussein and other divisive acts, then we should not rule out the possibility that al-Maliki could fall at the hands of Iran, before the fall of the tyrant al-Assad. This would be in order to preserve the minimum of Iran’s interests in the region. Yet the fall of al-Maliki at the hands of the Iraqis, through the so-called “Iraqi Spring” that al-Sadr has warned of, will likely represent the Iranian Autumn, and this is what wise minds everywhere must encourage!

Senior Israeli Army officer: 3rd intifada has begun
Itamar Fleishman Published: 01.06.13/ Israel News/Ynetnews
Ezion sector commander makes grim prediction about Palestinian unrest in West Bank; says IDF prepared to battle terror .The defense establishment has been careful not to overstate the significance of the recent – growing – wave of unrest sweeping the West Bank, but according to IDF Ezion Sector Commander Colonel Yaniv Alaluf, the third intifada has already begun. "We're no longer on the verge of a third intifada – it's already here. We anticipate many more (clashes) from now on," he said. Speaking to troops and reservists assigned to the sector, Alaluf qualified his daunting prediction, saying that "We may not be facing thousands of demonstrators storming border fences with AK-47s, but that doesn’t diminish the seriousness of the situation." Ynet learned Sunday that Alaluf, one of the GOC Central Command's top-ranking officers, spoke following a training session held in the area, as part of the IDF's efforts to deal with the increasing tensions in the West Bank following Operation Pillar of Defense and the PA's status upgrade by the UN. Alaluf's assessment of the situation was a pessimistic one: "The process lead by Abu Mazen is over, replaced by the attitude promoted by Hamas. Abu Mazen is trying to survive the Arab Spring and he understands that the path of negotiations with Israel is over. "The question is – what will follow? We may see regional anarchy along a military campaign of our own." The sector chief expressed concern that should Israel mount another military operation in Gaza, or have to deal with a regional deterioration, "The IDF may face a shortage in reservists. But not all is bleak: Alaluf was optimistic as to the IDF's ability to deal with terrorist threats, saying he does not foresee a string of suicide attacks, which became the gruesome hallmark of the al-Aqsa Intifada. "The third intifada won't be like the second one, which surprised us. We're ahead of the game now and terror won't be able to slither up to central Israel because we're better prepared."
Many of the soldiers serving in the sector, reside in Gush Ezion and are not strangers to the escalating violence. "This is a great man and a greater officer, who has been able to significantly reduce terror acts around here since he came onto the sector," one of the soldiers who was present in the briefing told Ynet. "His assessment didn’t come as a surprise to us. You can only admire how honest he was with the area's residents – that can't be taken for granted." The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said that, "The military does not comment on remarks made in closed forums."

Israeli PM: Global Jihadists moving into Golan border area
By HERB KEINON 01/06/2013 13/J. Post/Netanyahu directs Defense Ministry to build fences on all of Israel's frontiers, "first and foremost on our border with Syria." Israel needs to construct a border fence with Syria on the Golan Heights because the Syrian army has moved away from the border, and Global Jihad elements have moved in its place, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Sunday. Netanyahu's comments came at the weekly cabinet meeting where he announced that the completion of the 230-kilometer fence along the Egyptian border erected in just over two years has completely stemmed the tide of illegal migration into Israel from Sinai.Netanyahu said he issued a directive not to disband the Defense Ministry staff responsible for the construction of the fence, and to continue building security barriers on all of Israel's other borders, "first and foremost on our border with Syria."Netanyahu said Israel intended to build a border fence along the frontier with Syria on the Golan Heights. "We know that today on the other side of the border with Syria the Syrian army has moved away, and in its place Global Jihad elements have moved in."The prime minister said Israel needed to defend the north both from illegal infiltration and from terrorist elements. Netanyahu also said that the Syrian regime was "very unstable," and that Syria's chemical weapons were concerning Israel. He said Israel was coordinating its intelligence and assessments with the US "and others," with the objective being to "prepare for any eventuality and possibility that could develop there."

Netanyahu rebuffs former Shin Bet chief's criticism
Ynet Published: 01.06.13 / Israel News
Netanyahu rebuffs former Shin Bet chief's criticism; says 'I see reality for what it is, my mission is to deal with Israel's threats'
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave interviews to several radio stations Sunday, in the wake of the political storm sparked by Shin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin's Yedioth Ahronoth interview, which was published on Friday. Diskin expressed great concern about the cabinet's decision-making process, and leveled harsh criticism at Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, saying that both were motivated by personal interests and that he and his colleagues in the defense establishment "Didn't trust their motives." Netanyahu told Army Radio that Diskin's remarks were those of a "disgruntled man," adding that the interview's timing – so close to the elections – was conspicuous. Diskin called into question Netanyahu and Barak's conduct during highly sensitive security debates, such as one on the Iranian threat. "Not only was the account inaccurate, it fails to reflect reality," the PM rebuffed the criticism. "We had never before held such serious, in-depth discussions on Iran as we did at that time. But I, unlike others, I don't slam other people and I don't go into these things. It's unworthy."
Speaking to Israel Radio, Netanyahu said that "Those who chose to attack me should pick a theme and stick to it. On the one hand, they say I'm motivated by personal interests and on the other they say I'm on a messianic mission. "I see reality as it is: Iran is going nuclear, Syria has chemical weapons, Hezbollah and Hamas have missile caches and Sinai has become a terror hotbed. My mission is to deal with these threats."
Netanyahu said he was unfazed by the Left's attempts to change the government, saying "This is the kind of thing that happens before – and after – every election. They are trying to remove me from power and they will stop at nothing." The PM said that Hatnua Chairwoman Tzipi Livni will not serve as the foreign minister in his next government, stressing that the coalition will be made up of the political Right – his natural partners.
"First of all, what we'll have is a Likud-led government, following my political and security lead. Its partners will come from one (political) side, because they don't have to apologize to their constituents.
"There is always the possibility that if someone else wanted to join the government they could," he qualified. The PM further stressed that he is standing by his Bar Ilan speech: "I'm still saying the same thing – two states for two peoples. But you can't ask us to recognize a Palestinian state without them recognizing the Jewish state. And they won't do that and that's the root of the conflict," he said.

First Christmas for Egypt Copts under Islamist rule

January 06, 2013/By Haitham El-Tabei
CAIRO: Egypt's minority Coptic Christians celebrate on Monday their first Christmas under Islamist rule and amid a climate of fear and uncertainty for their future.
"I do not really feel safe," says Ayman Ramzi, who feels his community threatened by the rise of Islamists in the world's biggest Sunni Arab nation.
He was summarising the growing feeling of insecurity in Egypt where Copts, the largest and one of the oldest Christian community in the Middle East, will attend midnight mass later Sunday ahead of Christmas.
President Mohamed Mursi, who hails from the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, has pledged to be the "president of all Egyptians."
Late last month he renewed the pledge saying that a controversial new constitution drawn up by an Islamist-dominated council guaranteed equal rights and freedom for all Egyptians "with no exceptions."
But Ramzi, 38, says a growing number of "hostile" statements from several radical Islamist groups against Christians is cause for concern.
He pointed to a fatwa, religious edict, posted several days ago on the Internet warning Muslims that it was forbidden to wish Copts a Merry Christmas.
The fatwa was posted by the Committee for the Legitimate Rights and Reform, a group close to radical Salafist factions, which includes among its members the Brotherhood's number two Khairat al-Shater.
And recently the independent newspaper Al-Watan quoted Salafist figure Hisham al-Ashri as saying he wanted to meet Copts outside their churches to convert them to Islam.
Ashri, who was identified as the founder of the ultra-conservative Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, also demanded that Coptic women wear the Islamic veil.
"I'm really shocked by so many reactionary statements," said Madonna Nagi, a Coptic student, 23, who also slammed media reports alleging that Christians instigated recent anti-Mursi protests.
Copts, who represent 6-10 percent of Egypt's 83-million-strong population, are spread across the country with most concentrated in central Egypt.
They belong to all classes of society -- from garbage collectors to the great patrician families -- but few rise to hold government jobs and most fear they will be further marginalised in the new Egypt.
The transition since the ouster of former president Hosni Mubarak after massive protests in February 2011 has been marked by several confrontations between Copts and Muslims or security forces, some of them deadly.
And many still remember with shock the attack against a Coptic church in Alexandria on January 1, 2011, that killed 23 people.
Today many Copts are thinking of immigrating, like relatives and neighbours who have already left the country.
"My sister is scared for the future and wants to go to the United States with her children," said airline employee Raymond Faez.
"But I do not want to leave my country," he said, but nevertheless admitted that there is a feeling of "general malaise" among Christians in Egypt.
In the densely-populated Cairo district if Shubra, several Christian traders show warning letters from radical Islamists they received ahead of Christmas.
"We have been getting such letters for years," said shopkeeper Morkos Rushdi, who seems resigned to his fate.
As under Mubarak's regime, the Islamic sharia law remains the "principal source of legislation" in the new constitution that was adopted in December and critics say it could pave the way for radical interpretations of the law.
But for the Copts there is still discrimination -- namely restrictive legislation concerning building new churches in a country where there are no limits for building mosques.