LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 04/2013

Bible Quotation for today/
John 01/29-34: "John the Baptist saw Jesus coming toward him and said, "Behold, the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world. He is the one of whom I said, 'A man is coming after me who ranks ahead of me because he existed before me.' I did not know him, but the reason why I came baptizing with water was that he might be made known to Israel." John testified further, saying, "I saw the Spirit come down like a dove from the sky and remain upon him. I did not know him, but the one who sent me to baptize with water told me, 'On whomever you see the Spirit come down and remain, he is the one who will baptize with the holy Spirit.' Now I have seen and testified that he is the Son of God."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Hug Hezbollah to death if necessary/By Michael Young/The Daily Star/January 03/13
No Settlement in Damascus/By: Bilal Y. Saab and Andrew J. Tabler/Washington Insitute/January 04/10
Will Abbas hand the key to Israel/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat/January 04/10
A year of hope/By Hussein Shabokshi/Asharq Alawsat/January 04/10

Obama signs defense bill, focus on Iran
Associated Press Published: 01.03.13/ New sanctions to hit Islamic Republic's energy, shipping and shipbuilding sectors; bill also boosts security at US diplomatic missions . President Barack Obama signed a $633 billion defense bill that tightens penalties on Iran and strengthens security at diplomatic missions worldwide, despite serious concerns about the limits Congress imposed on his handling of terror suspects.
In a statement, the president took issue with restrictions on his authority to transfer terror suspects from the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba to the US or other countries. He also said the bill limits the military's authority to transfer third-country nationals being held at a detention facility in Parwan, Afghanistan. Decisions regarding the disposition of detainees captured on foreign battlefields have traditionally been based upon the judgment of experienced military commanders and national security professionals without unwarranted interference by members of Congress," Obama wrote. He said the section of the bill related to detainees in Afghanistan "threatens to upend that tradition." Obama promised when he took office four years ago to close the prison at Guantanamo, but congressional opposition from Republicans and some Democrats have prevented him from fulfilling that vow. Obama insisted that he still believes that Guantanamo should be closed because operating the facility "weakens our national security by wasting resources, damaging our relationships with key allies and strengthening our enemies."
Pressuring Iran
The new sanctions on Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions would hit its energy, shipping and shipbuilding sectors as well as its ports, blacklisting them as "entities of proliferation concern." It imposes penalties on anyone caught supplying precious metals to Iran and sanctions on Iranian broadcasting. The move to increase security at diplomatic missions worldwide comes after the deadly Sept. 11 raid in Libya last year that killed the US ambassador there. The new law also puts off the retirement of some ships and aircraft, and Obama warned that the move could force reductions in the overall size of the military as the Defense Department faces cuts in projected spending.
As suicides among active-duty soldiers have accelerated, the bill also allows a commander officer or health professional to ask if a member of the services owns a firearm if they consider the individual at risk for either suicide or hurting others.

Netanyahu: Iran yet to cross nuclear red line
Attila Somfalvi Published: 01.04.13/Ynetnews
PM tells Israeli ambassadors gathered in Jerusalem positive change in Mideast possible if Tehran prevented from acquiring nukes. Adds: Hamas can seize control of PA 'any day' . "Iran remains the number one threat. I set a red line (for its nuclear program), and as of now Iran has yet to cross it," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday. Speaking at the annul meeting in the Foreign Ministry for Israel's ambassadors overseas, the PM said Israel remains determined to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu told the diplomats he expects the instability in the Middle East to continue in the short term, but claimed a positive change was possible in the long run if Iran is prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons. During a speech at the UN in September, the prime minister held up a cartoon-like drawing of a bomb with a fuse and literally drew a red line just below a label reading "final stage" to a bomb, in which Iran was 90% along the path of having sufficient weapons-grade material. Experts put that at the point that Iran has amassed enough uranium, purified to a level of 20%, that could quickly be enriched further and be used to produce an atomic bomb. Netanyahu told the United Nations he believes that faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down in a crisis that has sent jitters across the region and in financial markets. "And this will give more time for sanctions and diplomacy to convince Iran to dismantle its nuclear weapons program altogether," he added. Speaking to the Israeli ambassadors Thursday, Netanyahu also addressed the Palestinian issue, saying Hamas could take control of the Palestinian Authority "any day," and therefore "concrete security arrangements" must be included in any peace agreement, as well as recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish nation, an end to the "right of return" claim and a sincere declaration on the end of the conflict.

Bulgaria identifies Burgas bombing accomplice
Ynet Published: 01.03.13/Sofia issued arrest warrant for one of three foreigners who aided terrorist who blew up Israeli tourist bus in July. Chief investigator: Bomber did not plan to die .
Bulgarian police have identified and issued an international arrest warrant for one of the three foreign nationals suspected of aiding the terrorist who carried out the attack on a bus full of Israeli tourists in the resort city of Burgas last July, local media outlets reported Thursday, citing police investigators. Five Israelis and a Bulgarian bus driver were killed in the bombing. The suspected accomplice's country of origin is known to authorities in Sofia, according to the report. According to AFP, Stanelia Karadzhova, head of the regional investigation unit in Burgas, told the 24 Hours newspaper in an interview that the investigation has evidence for the implication of three persons. The identity of one of them, a man, has already been established, she added. Karadzhova was quoted by Bulgarian news agency Novinite as saying that police believe a fourth suspect may emerge.It remains unclear how the terrorist contacted the alleged accomplices, as they had never been seen together and did not travel with cell phones or laptops.
Karadzhova said investigators had linked the individuals through their falsified documents, bearing the name of the state of Michigan, and their similar, basic lifestyle. The chief investigator described their way of life as "very ordered and simple, like in the army, which suggests they had the same type of training." She said that according to new evidence, the main attacker did not intend to die in the attack. According to Novintine, the bomber went under the alias Jacque Felipe Martin and one of his accomplices used the false name of Ralph Willima Rico. Both had fake documents from the US state of Michigan. In July ABC News published a photo of a fake Michigan driver's license that belonged to the man who was identified by Bulgarian authorities as the suicide bomber. According to the image obtained by ABC, the "Michigan Operator's License" with the name "Jacque Felipe Martin" showed that the suspect included a fake Louisiana address as his permanent residence. The address is actually that of a Baton Rouge, Louisiana casino, called the Belle of Baton Rouge.

U.N. lifts Syria death toll to "truly shocking" 60,000
AMMAN/GENEVA,(Reuters) - More than 60,000 people have died in Syria's uprising and civil war, the United Nations said on Wednesday, dramatically raising the death toll in a struggle that shows no sign of ending.
In the latest violence, dozens were killed in a rebellious Damascus suburb when a government air strike turned a petrol station into an inferno, incinerating drivers who had rushed there for a rare chance to fill their tanks, activists said. "I counted at least 30 bodies. They were either burnt or dismembered," said Abu Saeed, an activist who arrived in the area an hour after the 1 p.m. (1100 GMT) raid in Muleiha, a suburb on the eastern edge of the capital.
U.N. Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay said in Geneva that researchers cross-referencing seven sources over five months of analysis had listed 59,648 people killed in Syria between March 15, 2011 and Nov. 30, 2012.
"The number of casualties is much higher than we expected and is truly shocking," she said. "Given that there has been no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013."
There was no breakdown by ethnicity or information about whether the dead were rebels, soldiers or civilians. There was also no estimate of an upper limit of the possible toll.
Previously, the opposition-linked Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group put the toll at around 45,000 confirmed dead but said the real number was likely to be higher.
FATAL RUSH FOR PETROL
Muleiha, the target of Wednesday's air strike, is a residential and industrial area in the eastern Ghouta region of Damascus that also houses a Syrian air defence base.
Video footage taken by activists showed the body of a man in a helmet still perched on a motorcycle amid flames engulfing the scene. Another man was shown carrying a dismembered body.
The video could not be verified. The government bars access to the Damascus area to most international media. The activists said rockets were fired from the base at the petrol station and a nearby residential area after the air raid.
"Until the raid, Muleiha was quiet. We have been without petrol for four days and people from the town and the countryside rushed to the station when a state consignment came in," Abu Fouad, another activist at the scene, said by phone. In Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad's forces fired artillery and mortars at the eastern districts of Douma, Harasta, Irbin and Zamlaka, where rebels are active, activists living there said.
Assad's forces control the centre of the capital, while rebels and their sympathisers hold a ring of southern and eastern suburbs that are often hit from the air.
The Observatory said a separate air strike killed 12 members of a family, most of them children, in Moadamiyeh, a southwestern district near the centre of Damascus where rebels have fought for a foothold.
The family of an American freelance journalist, James Foley, 39, said on Wednesday he had been missing in Syria since being kidnapped six weeks ago by gunmen. No group has publicly claimed responsibility for his abduction.
Syria was by far the most dangerous country for journalists in 2012, with 28 killed there.
The conflict began in March 2011 with peaceful protests against four decades of Assad family rule and turned into an armed revolt after months of government repression.
Insurgents trying to topple Assad see his air power as their main threat. They hold swathes of eastern and northern provinces, as well as some outlying parts of Damascus, but have been unable to protect their territory from relentless attack by helicopters and jets. In the north, rebels, some from Islamist units, attacked the Afis military airport near Taftanaz air base, firing machineguns and mortars at helicopters on the ground to try and make a dent in Assad's air might, the Observatory said. The al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham Brigade and other units in northwestern Idlib province were attacking the base, which is near the main north-south highway linking Damascus to Aleppo, Syria's biggest city, the Observatory said. In recent months, rebel units have besieged military bases, especially along the highway, Syria's main artery.
The Observatory's director, Rami Abdelrahman, said the attack was the latest of several attempts to capture the base. A satellite image of the airport shows more than 40 helicopter landing pads, a runway and aircraft hangars.
Syrian state media gave no immediate account of the Damascus air strikes or the fighting in the north.
"FOR GOD'S EYES"

Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities in the 21-month-old conflict, but the United Nations says the government and its allies have been more culpable.
In the latest evidence of atrocities, Internet video posted by Syrian rebels shows armed men, apparently fighters loyal to Assad, stabbing two men to death and stoning them with concrete blocks in a summary execution lasting several minutes.
Reuters could not verify the provenance of the footage or the identity of the perpetrators and their victims. The video was posted on Tuesday but it was not clear where or when it was filmed. However it does clearly show a summary execution and torture, apparently being carried out by government supporters.At one point, one of the perpetrators says: "For God's eyes and your Lord, O Bashar," an Arabic incantation suggesting actions being carried out in the leader's name. The video was posted on YouTube by the media office of the Damascus-based rebel First Brigade, which said it had been taken from a captured member of the shabbiha pro-government militia.
The perpetrators show off for the camera, smiling for close-up shots, slicing at the victims' backs, then stabbing them and bashing them with large slabs of masonry.
Syria's civil war is the longest and deadliest conflict to emerge from uprisings that began sweeping the Arab world in 2011 and has developed a significant sectarian element.
Rebels, mostly from the Sunni Muslim majority, confront Assad's army and security forces, dominated by his Shi'ite-derived Alawite sect, which, along with some other minorities, fears revenge if he falls.

Syrian National Coalition member Haytham al-Malih : Brahimi gave al-Assad "green light" to kill civilians
By Adham Saif al-Din /Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – Syrian National Coalition member Haytham al-Malih has launched a sharp attack on the regional and international parties concerned with the Syrian crisis, asserting that their silence has provided cover for the Bashar al-Assad regime and its crimes. Speaking exclusively to Asharq Al-Awsat, al-Malih stressed that the only way to protect the Syrian people is to provide support and assistance to the opposition Free Syrian Army [FSA] to end the struggle with a regime that has lost all legitimacy. Al-Malih said that the political quiet that has beset the Syrian crisis represents a freezing of aid from Arab, regional and international states. A cautious calm has prevailed on the Syrian political scene since UN Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi left Cairo earlier this week after proposing an initiative to form a transitional government. This initiative was rejected by the Syrian opposition represented by the Syrian National Coalition which expressed reservations about any political solution that includes Bashar al-Assad remaining in power in any form.
Al-Malih told Asharq Al-Awsat “Brahimi should submit a report to the UN Security Council relating the tragic situation in Syria in order to stop the war and killing machine under Chapter VII of the UN charter, particularly as he previously warned that the situation in Syria represents a threat to world peace. This necessitates the implementation of Article 39 of Chapter VII of the UN charter which authorizes the use of military force to maintain peace."
Article 39 reads: "The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security."Al-Malih added: "Brahimi gave the Syrian government the green light to kill civilians when he said that the death toll will reach 100,000 this year, and this will truly happen unless he listens to his conscience and activates the Syrian file within the United Nations and Security Council to condemn the ruling regime in Damascus."
Speaking from Cairo last week, UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi told reporters that if the crisis continues, Syria will not be divided into states "like what happened in Yugoslavia" but would face "Somalisation, which means warlords, and the Syrian people will be persecuted by those who control their fate".He added "the situation in Syria is bad. Very, very bad...it is getting worse and therefore if nearly 50,000 were killed in nearly two years if, God forbids, this crisis continues for another year, it will not only kill 25,000. It will kill 100,000. The situation is deteriorating."Al-Malih said that in his view, everybody is aware of the solution to the Syrian crisis, namely to arm the FSA with qualitative and sophisticated weapons to allow it to end the struggle. He ruled out the possibility of a political solution in Syria, particularly in light of Russia, Iran and China continuing to politically, diplomatically, militarily and financially support the Damascus regime. Al-Malih also revealed that the Syrian National Coalition is scheduled to meet in the coming few days to discuss the implications of the political situation, as well as the situation on the ground in the country, in order to strengthen the Syrian revolution.

Free Syrian Army working to liberate Idlib – Sources
By Layal Abu Rahal/Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat – According to information provided by the opposition Local Coordination Council, the death toll in Syria yesterday topped 160, whilst activists reported that nearly 40 people, including women, had been arrested at a Syrian Army checkpoint. In addition to this, the Syrian army renewed its shelling of Darya, Zamalka, Saqba and Douma in the Rif Dimashq governorate.
The Syrian army also began to shell the town of Hajar al-Aswad and renewed its shelling of Yarmouk Camp which resulted in a mass migration from the area just one week after numerous families had returned. Yarmouk Camp is a Palestinian refugee camp in the Syrian capital Damascus that has been repeatedly attacked by al-Assad regime warplanes throughout the recent period. Yarmouk camp houses Palestinians in addition to Syrians who have been displaced by the fighting.
Clashes intensified in Idlib governorate where Free Syrian Army [FSA] members were able to bring down an al-Assad regime helicopter in Taftanaz. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Syrian rebels had attacked the Afis military air base just outside the city, with Observatory director Rami Abdelrahman revealing that Wednesday’s attack was the latest of several attempts to capture the air base. Adelrahman said that the al-Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham Brigade were among the units that took part in this attack against the al-Assad-held air base, adding that both sides suffered losses in the fighting.
Fighters on the ground informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the FSA is working to “completely liberate Idlib governorate and purify it from regime forces, particularly now that they are only present in three or four locations.”
The FSA fighters revealed that “Wadi Deif [military base] is surrounded and heavy clashes are taking place there, whilst the Afiz military air base near Taftanaz is witnessing daily violence and the al-Ramiyya camp remains in the hands of the regime forces.” The FSA sources also told Asharq Al-Awsat that Idlib governorate “occupies a strategically important location and the majority of its residents overwhelmingly support the revolution and the FSA.”
As for the reason behind Idlib governorate’s strategic importance, the FSA sources related this to the governorate’s geographic location, describing this as “a transit point between Turkey and the rest of the Syrian governorates allowing the delivery of supplies and aid to reach the Syrians.”
In addition to this, the village of Hamama in Jist al-Shagour was also shelled on Wednesday, whilst clashes broke out on the outskirts of al-Rami town in Jabal al-Zawiyah.
In Daraa governorate, the opposition Local Coordination Council reported regime shelling of the city of Da’al and al-Malhiya al-Sharqiya. Regime forces clashed with the FSA over army checkpoints in the region whilst the al-Assad regime also heavily shelled the city of Busra al-Harir.
As for Hama governorate, the Local Coordination Council reported heavy shelling of Latamina from a nearby town, as well as rocket-fire targeting Halfaya resulting in a number of casualties. Halfaya was the scene of a previous massacre last month that saw a government air strike targeting a bakery resulting in a large death toll, with some sources reporting that up to 200 people had been killed in the blast.
In Aleppo, heavy clashes continued between regime and rebel forces in Bustan al-Basha. The Local Coordination Council reported that “warplanes fired on the al-Jazmati and Tariq al-Bab districts” adding “clashes also broke out between FSA and regime fighters in the area surrounding Dawar Shihan.” In addition to this, the towns of Hayan and Andan were shelled by regime forces.
In Homs governorate, violent clashes broke out at Krak des Chevaliers [castle] between regime forces and the FSA. Krak des Chevaliers is a crusader castle originally built in the early 11th century and viewed as being one of the most important preserved medieval castles in the world. It has been recognized by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site. In addition to this, regime shelling targeting the city of Homs reportedly led to a number of casualties. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that “clashes took place in Tilbisa, whilst the regime forces were reinforced along the Damascus – Deir Ezzour road, accompanied by air support from regime forces helicopters.” MiG warplanes also launched air strikes against the Jabaliya district of Deir Ezzour, accompanied by artillery fire targeting the districts of Jabaliya, Hamidiya and al-Ardi.

Ahmadinejad in suicidal anti-corruption drive against Khamenei’s establishment
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 2, 2013/In the unexpected role of social crusader, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech at Kermanshah Wednesday, Jan. 2, “The country’s economy should not be controlled by 3,000 or 10,000 people.” Seventy-six million Iranians still don’t benefit from the country’s oil revenues – “only an elite minority,” he said.
Predictably, debkafile’s Iranian sources report, the Iranian president’s relations and friends are rushing for the exits: they are selling property and packing their bags ready to quit the country, worried about his fate and their own, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his powerful machine prepared to hit back. Ahmadinejad is certainly in for serious persecution even before his six months as president are up in June. In his second four-year term as president, he made enemies of the most powerful parts of the ruling establishment: He attempted to overshadow the Supreme Leader, brushed aside the advice of his mentor, the influential religious figure Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, and dared to poke a finger in the eye of the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps, by asking why they controlled and profited from the largest slice of the nation’s assets instead of the people.
Now they are all gunning for him, using as their political bludgeon allegations of financial corruption.
But Ahmadinejad has not been put off. Although he sees his undoing written large on the wall, at every opportunity, before even small audiences of 300-400 people, he continues to maintain that the only way the country can save itself is by forcing the redistribution of national wealth.
His message goes down well in the Iranian street and he is beginning to build a grass-roots power base that may help protect him from retribution by Khamenei and his henchmen. The “elite minority,” which need to be relieved of their assets, was easily understood to impugn the super-rich, like Khamenei’s own son Mojtaba and some of the Revolutionary Guard commanders.
Our sources in Tehran say that many of his associates have already taken the precaution of removing themselves to safety in the United States or Europe; others are keeping their heads down or knocking on the president’s door to wangle foreign postings so long as he has the clout to disburse them. One such prominent figure is Hamid Baqa’I, the president’s deputy for executive affairs. In two months, he is due to take up the post of Iranian ambassador to UN institutions in Geneva and New York, in place of the incumbent Mohammad Khaza’i.
Ahmadinejad is going through the motions of promoting his close aide Esfandyar Rahim Masha’I, who is also the father of his daughter-in-law, as presidential contender in June. But he knows it is a lost case. Masha’i is also likely to end up at a foreign posting with his family, when his candidacy is disqualified by the Guardian Council of the Constitution which is under Khamenei’s thumb.
Foreign appointments also appear to be in the works for some other members of Ahmadinejad’s inner circle, such as Seyyed Hossein Moussavi, Malek-Zadeh and others.
But not all his hangers-on are getting a sympathetic hearing. Our sources in Tehran have learned that the president lost patience this week when a bunch of his cronies confronted him with demands for cushy overseas appointments. He threatened instead to fire some of them Under heavy criticism for mismanaging the Iranian economy, he may use the opportunity to assign the blame to his less favorite advisers, sweep them out and replace them with new faces. One of the most prominent heads on the block may be First Vice President and de facto prime minister Mohammad Reza Rahimi.
Rahimi stirred an international furor by his anti-Semitic remarks which accused Jews of “spreading narcotics around the world in accordance with the teachings of the Talmud … whose objective is the destruction of the world.” He almost outperformed his boss, now turned social crusader, who more than once attracted international condemnation for his inflammatory remarks about Israel and Jews.
Most recently, Ahmadinejad called his close cronies together for a pep talk. He told them he held an insurance policy for his and their survival: the secret dossiers of 300 top Iranian officials containing detailed records of their misdeeds. He obtained them by rifling the archives of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security during the brief period after he sacked the intelligence minister, Heydar Moslehi, and before Khamenei forced him to reinstate the minister a week later.
He and his staff had meanwhile combed through the incriminating files and made copies of them which were now held safe in the presidential office.
Khamenei, who has the support of the bulk of Iran’s political and military leaders, knows all about Ahmadinejad’s plans and is determined to eliminate him one way or another and make sure that the 300 dossiers never leave the president’s office. More than once, Ahmadinejad has implied recently that he would make their contents public if he or members of his clique were charged with corruption or the misappropriation of state funds. For now, he is weeding out of his administration the officials he regards as its Achilles heels – according to our sources, the first scheduled to go are Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi and Interior Minister Mohammad Mostafa Najjar.
The Iranian Oil Ministry is a notorious hotbed of financial embezzlement, whereas the Interior Ministry is responsible for organizing the upcoming presidential election and Ahmadinejad would prefer one of his confidantes to be sitting in that office.
Only last week, he sacked Health Minister Marzieh Wahid Dastjerdi for remarking that Ahmadinejad prefers to earmark foreign currency for importing dog food rather than medicines. Her dismissal put many backs up against the president in the top echelons of government.
President Ahmadinejad was publicly warned this week to shut his mouth and stop ruining his reputation by Esma’il Kovsari, Khamenist adherent and powerful parliamentary voice. Kovsari pointed out that the Revolutionary Guards helped Ahmadinejad come to power as president and supported him on many occasions and so he must not turn his back on them now.
Another supporter of Khamenei, Al Sa’idi, said that most regime heads are now sorry they brought Ahmadinejad to power because he has become a different person.
Does this royal battle within the Iranian establishment affect its nuclear plans? The answer is no. Will crucifying the president cause rioting over the summer election? Not likely. Politically, Ahmadinejad is on his way out and leaves the stage to the most radical elements of the regime. And physically? Well, car accidents are a common feature of the Iranian political scene.

A year of hope?
By Hussein Shabokshi/Asharq Alawsat
The year 2012, with its limited sweetness and considerable bitterness, was an incredible and strange year by any standards.
Disorder, concern, fear and suspicion have been the most notable characteristics of the past few months. The world suffered an unprecedented lack of economic vision; historic states were declared bankrupt, entire regimes were toppled and giant firms were shut down. The Arab world is also experiencing a new image, whereby it has moved on from a state of creative chaos to one of primal concern. Yet amidst such a tense climate and unclear vision, there are those who remain certain of the existence of golden opportunities to uncover new wealth and resources. The Arab world in particular is a focal point of primal concern because the media image being promoted about the region in a constant and continual manner – one which is full of tension, exaggeration and self-flagellation – apparently aims to bring about greater exposure and encourage a full revision of our achievements, words and actions. This may seem a noble goal in itself, yet over time this portrayal has led the Arab citizen feeling deprived of his will, helpless and unable to manage his own affairs. It is an extremely defeatist, feeble and desperate image.
Such a sorrowful scene will inevitably have a negative impact on the mindset of the youth of today and the generations to come, for it will encourage a lack of loyalty or affiliation to any identity, whether nationalist or religious. This is just the precursor to the hard and complex state of affairs to come. The great challenge facing Arab societies today is the task of inspiring hope in a truthful and logical manner, rather than selling illusions and consecrating the impossible. This is a very difficult task yet it is an important one. In order to construct hope there must be a sense of justice and equality, as well as universal rights and commitment. In other words hope requires the practical, accurate and realistic translation of the notion of living in safety and dignity. These are the very same slogans we see raised by each successive generation simply because the need for them still exists. Yet the discourse itself is corroding as a result of the cancer of injustice, the virus of corruption, the bacteria of discrimination and the epidemic of racism, all of which are social ills that can ravage nations and states destructively.
Countries and societies are celebrating the new year and looking forward positively to the future. On an individual level, many people are setting themselves a series of hopes and targets to achieve, whereby they review what they have done in the past and what they have not. This is the difference between vibrant societies and lethargic ones. A new year has come, but unfortunately, it seems like it will be another wasted opportunity. The Arabs will miss the chance for advancement, reform and development, and they will remain at the bottom of the global classification index. These words themselves may sound like self-flagellation and unfortunately the reality is frustrating. Nevertheless the glimmer of hope, no matter how small, must be maintained. All we can do is hope.Happy New Year

Hamas bans working with Israeli media
London, Asharq Al-Awsat – The Hamas government in Gaza has issued orders to its officials not to meet with or grant interviews to the Israeli media. According to a report published by the UK-based the Guardian newspaper, the governmental decree – issued earlier this week – reads: “the [Hamas] government has decided to bar co-operation or work with Zionist media due to its hostility. The prohibition applies to all Palestinian reporters and journalists.” The Hamas decision also includes instructions to all government officials not to grant interviews or comments to Israeli press or television. The Israeli media has largely been dependent on local Palestinian or international journalists for Gaza news since Tel Aviv banned Israeli journalists from entering the Gaza Strip in 2006. Matan Drori, foreign news editor for Israel’s Maariv newspaper, described Hamas’s decision as being “very unfortunate.” Speaking to the Guardian, he said “it is important for Israelis to understand the motivations and behavior of the other side, and perhaps also as a way of building bridges for the future. It will be a major loss not to have an authentic voice from inside Gaza.” Whilst Sami Ajrami, Maariv newspaper’s Gaza correspondent over the past 18 months, said “the Israeli public should know what’s happening in Gaza. This is not good for the Palestinian cause. But we are under the Hamas regime, and Hamas has been criticized a lot in the Israeli and international media, so they want to impose controls.”
For its part, the Paris-based Reporters Without Borders organization expressed its shock at the Hamas decision, calling for this to be lifted. Reports Without Borders said “this is the first time the Palestinian authorities have issued such a ban, which poses a serious threat to freedom of information. It will also create problems for the not insignificant number of Palestinian journalists in the Gaza Strip who work for Israeli TV stations and newspapers.”
The press watchdog urged “the Hamas government to reconsider this order.” Abeer Ayyoub, a 25-year old journalist who has written for both the Guardian and Israel’s Haaretz newspaper also called on the Hamas government to reconsider its ban. She said “there are two sides to the conflict, and both sides should be covered” adding “the Israeli media will have no one in Gaza writing about what is going on.” Hamas has reportedly cracked down on Palestinian journalists inside the Gaza Strip who have been critical of the government. A Human Rights Watch report published last year asserted that “journalists in the Gaza Strip have…faced arbitrary detention, assault and other forms of harassment from the Hamas authorities.”

Will Abbas hand the key to Israel?
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
Mahmoud Abbas has threatened the Israelis by saying he plans to hand them the key to the West Bank following the Israeli parliamentary elections, so long as they continue to reject the two-state solution. In doing so, the Israelis would then be left with the true price of occupation rather than simply collecting taxes from the Palestinian Authority, as they are doing at the moment.
Now we are expecting Abbas to actually hand over the West Bank to Israel and end the Oslo Accords he signed 20 years ago, on the basis of which the Palestinian Authority was established, because empty threats are harmful and of no benefit. What made him think of such a historically unprecedented initiative is the fact that the Palestinian Authority is both confident and frustrated at the same time. Palestine has finally been awarded seat at the United Nations as a non-member observer state, but this remains a symbolic victory. On the other hand, the Palestinian Authority is incapable of improving the conditions of the people it is responsible for, at least in accordance with the Oslo Accords, for it is living off international aid and the customs revenues that Israel is supposed to pay.
Yet aid is no longer enough and Israel is withholding its customs revenues, while the world stands by and watches. The Palestinian project is also in a state of political and financial bankruptcy and has reached a dead end owing to Israel’s intransigence over the two-state solution. If Abbas hands the key to Israel, the Israeli government will be legally responsible for administering and feeding two and a half million Palestinians. This will not be an easy task and anti-occupation uprisings, which had previously ceased because of the presence of Palestinian police force, would surely resume.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may remain in office after the election, cynically said that Abbas is threatening to disband the Palestinian Authority because he is losing on the ground in the West Bank while his rival Hamas is expanding. Yet, Netanyahu knows that disbanding the Palestinian Authority would mean an international intervention because the Oslo Accords, signed in 1993, came with US sponsorship. Therefore, both the United States and the international community would have to bear the consequences of the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority. However, Abbas needs to make sure that Hamas will not take advantage of the situation to seize power, maybe even in coordination with Israel, like what is currently happening in Gaza where Israeli strikes are only launched when Hamas is unable to control Salafi and jihadist factions, and a truce becomes the only way out.
We expect Abbas not to retract his threats at the last minute in return for some empty promises because everyone is now waiting for the decisive moment. It is no longer a matter of paying the salaries of Palestinian Authority employees, nor is it about getting more aid. Israel is now confident it can expand its settlements in the occupied territories as it pleases, and nobody cares as long as the Palestinian Authority is preoccupied with the day-to-day problems of its citizens.

No Settlement in Damascus
Bilal Y. Saab and Andrew J. Tabler/Foreign Affairs?Washington Insitute
January 2, 2012/After almost two years of bloodletting in Syria, there is little chance that negotiations of the kind UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has been urging would end the conflict; more likely, they would prolong it.
In recent weeks, the argument that a decisive Syrian rebel victory would not necessarily be a good thing has gained ground in U.S. foreign policy circles. A negotiated settlement between Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and the rebels, the argument goes, would be preferable. Such an ending would have a better chance of stanching the violence and preventing outright sectarian war between the mostly Sunni rebels -- hungry for revenge against the Alawites -- and the rest of the country. Yet after almost two years of bloodletting by the Syrian government, there is little chance that splitting the difference between the factions would end the conflict. Even worse, a negotiated outcome would perpetuate Assad's favorite strategy -- honed over decades -- of using the threat of sectarian war to make his adversaries in the international community wary of getting involved. Instead, the end of the Assad regime should be decisive and complete.
Of course, there are those who disagree. For one, Glenn Robinson, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, has argued that the Syrian rebels, if they win, will seek revenge and embrace neither democracy nor liberalism. Arguing along the same lines, Madhav Joshi, a senior researcher at the University of Notre Dame's Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, and David Mason, a professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, have suggested that a decisive military victory in a civil war is dangerous. The victorious side, they say, is likely to try to exclude the other from government (and enforce that exclusion through its military dominance) rather than to try to co-opt the former rival's supporters by including them.
But history does not necessarily bear that out. Negotiated settlements have, in fact, proved weak in terms of promoting mutual disarmament, military integration, and political power sharing. Less than a quarter of all civil wars since 1945 have ended in a negotiated settlement. Many of those power-sharing deals were broken before they could be implemented (such as Uganda in 1985 and Rwanda in 1993). Of those that made it to implementation, the governments generally collapsed into renewed conflict (Lebanon in 1958 and 1976, Chad in 1979, Angola in 1994, and Sierra Leone in 1999). Other recently negotiated settlements remain tenuous (Bosnia in 1995, Northern Ireland in 1998, Burundi in 2000, and Macedonia in 2001).
Negotiated settlements usually founder first on the issue of disarmament, as Alexander Downes, an associate professor at George Washington University, has found. Further, research by Barbara Walter, a professor at University of California, San Diego, suggests that negotiations ask combatants to do what they consider unthinkable. At a time when no legitimate government and no legal institutions exist to enforce a contract, warriors are asked to demobilize, disarm, and prepare for peace. But once they lay down their weapons, it becomes almost impossible to enforce the other side's cooperation or survive attack. Adversaries simply cannot credibly promise to abide by such dangerous terms. More durable than negotiated solutions are rebel victories. Monica Duffy Toft, an associate professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, has argued that rebels typically have to gain significant support from fellow citizens in order to win. Once in government, rebels are also more likely to allow citizens a say in politics to further bolster their legitimacy.
Each conflict is, of course, unique. In Syria, given the timid international reaction, the competing interests of Russia and the United States, and decades-old regional contests, the conflict will most likely be decided on the battlefield, and the tide is turning in favor of the rebels.
But suppose that, in the next few weeks, regional and international powers decide to stop the violence with diplomacy. Four major issues would still stand in the way.
First is the issue of perception. Simply put, the rebels have fought long and hard, have sustained massive casualties, and sense that victory is near. They believe that they have momentum and time on their side and are confident that one final push in the capital could be Assad's undoing. They are not, therefore, interested in giving him a way out through a political deal.
Second, as in all such conflicts, the issue of trust is critical. Two years of war -- complete with unspeakable atrocities on both sides -- have provided each group with ample evidence of the other's evil intentions. No amount of ink in a negotiated settlement will change that, which makes it all the more unlikely that both parties will be willing to forsake their weapons when the international community asks them to do so.
Third is the issue of enforcement. The international community would most likely put forward the United Nations as a security guarantor. Reports have indicated that a UN peacekeeping force of up to 10,000 soldiers could be sent to Syria as part of the negotiated settlement that UN Special Representative to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi outlined last month. Yet given the UN's less than perfect record in stability operations, there aren't many Syrians who would cheer the blue helmets' arrival. Furthermore, now that Washington has designated Jabhat al-Nusra, one of the most prominent anti-Assad forces, as a terrorist organization, any political or power-sharing arrangement would exclude it. That would leave one more enemy to defeat and one more obstacle to overcome.
Fourth is the issue of regional patrons, especially Iran. To negotiate peace, outsiders who have been fueling the fighting with money, training, safe havens, and weaponry would have to start engaging in some creative and complex diplomacy. Because Syria affects the security of all Middle Eastern states, the solution would have to include all the region's major powers. That would mean bringing Iran to the table while also trying to isolate it. Tehran has already signaled to the Obama administration that it is willing to make a bargain on Syria to gain international recognition of its influence there and leverage in future nuclear talks.
Any negotiated settlement would have to produce two key collective goods for Syrians: security and political power. Simply calling on the Sunnis and Alawites to give up their guns won't work. But providing a credible security alternative and helping develop an all-inclusive governing coalition could. The larger the post-Assad governing coalition, moreover, the more Alawites and Sunnis would be interested in sustaining the peace. But a difficult question would remain: If there is no agreement on giving the UN a peacekeeping role, what kind of credible international or regional force would be required to ensure security? History suggests that third parties rarely remain involved in post-civil war peacekeeping roles for long. In addition, they can be less than effective, and the experience of Kosovo bears that out.
These possible outcomes -- a negotiated settlement and a rebel military victory in Syria -- both have flaws. So far, regional powers have worked toward the latter, choosing sides in the conflict and trying to help their side win. If regional powers change course, opting seriously for negotiations to stop the bloodshed and build peace, the diplomatic challenge will be enormous. At this late date, such an attempt would be a long shot at best -- and would likely prolong the Syria conflict instead of finishing it off.
**Bilal Y. Saab is executive director and head of research and public affairs at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) North America. Andrew J. Tabler is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Nasrallah warns against partition in Syria, region
January 04, 2013/By Dana Khraiche/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah’s leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah warned Thursday that Syria and the region were threatened with “schemes of division and partition,” backing a political solution to end the conflict in Lebanon’s neighbor.
“From Yemen to Iraq to Syria, the region is threatened more than ever by partition, even in Egypt, Libya and Saudi Arabia,” Nasrallah said, during a televised speech in Baalbek in front of thousands of party supporters.
The head of the resistance group also warned against politicizing the case of the growing number of Syrians fleeing to Lebanon, saying Lebanon should deal with their plight on a humanitarian basis.
“I’m not asking the Lebanese government to abandon its disassociation policy ... but to develop Lebanon’s political stance in order to exert pressure and help those who support a political reconciliation and dialogue in Syria,” Nasrallah said. Lebanon has adopted a policy of disassociation toward events in Syria given the deep political divisions in the country on how to approach the increasingly violent conflict in which the U.N. estimates over 60,000 people have been killed so far.
Nasrallah also praised the government, in which it is a dominant force, as well as his party on their policies toward the unrest in Syria, saying they had spared Lebanon from the repercussions from the 21-month-old conflict.
“It’s thanks to our stance and the stance of the current Lebanese government with regard to the Syrian crisis that fighting in Syria has been prevented from spreading to us,” he said.
His remarks came during a ceremony in Baalbek to mark the 40 days that follow Ashoura commemorations over the slaying of Imam Hussein in 680 A.D.
In his speech Nasrallah also slammed the March 14 alliance, which fervently opposes Assad, accusing it of trying to bring the conflict in Syria across the border into Lebanon.
“If the other team were in government, it would have involved Lebanon in fighting inside Lebanon and in Syria,” said Nasrallah, one of Assad’s strongest supporters in Lebanon.
Turning to the growing presence of Syrian refugees in the country, which has provoked mixed responses, Nasrallah insisted that they should be dealt in a humanitarian manner and rejected the idea of closing the border.
“We should deal with the presence of Syrian refugees in a purely humanitarian manner and not politicize it,” he said. “Syrian families should be taken care of by the Lebanese government, whether they are with the opposition or the regime or in between.” “And if there are reservations on politicizing this issue then we should listen to these remarks and take them into consideration,” Nasrallah added, in an apparent reference to recent complaints by Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Abdel-Karim Ali.
Ali has sent two complaints to Lebanese officials over what he describes as discrimination by the Social Affairs Ministry toward Syrian refugees in Lebanon on the basis of their political affiliations. The ministry has denied the allegations. Nasrallah said a political solution in Syria would help stop the bloodshed there and pave the way for refugees to return home, while urging the government to appeal to various states and bodies to help ease the strains. “The Lebanese Cabinet should appeal to the U.S., the Europeans, U.N., and Arab League and tell them that their approach to the Syrian crisis is only putting pressure on Lebanon that the country cannot handle [the burden] in terms of security, society and the economy,” Nasrallah said.
The Hezbollah leader also touched on the case of the remaining nine Lebanese pilgrims being held in Syria and called on the government to negotiate directly with the kidnappers after it failed to secure their release using Turkish mediators. “The way the government has dealt with this case isn’t satisfactory, with all due to respect to the efforts by officials ... but now is the time to directly negotiate with the kidnappers and designate a Lebanese official to do so,” he added. Eleven Shiite Lebanese pilgrims were kidnapped in northern Syria on May 22 last year as they were making their way back by land from a pilgrimage in Iran. One of the hostages was released in late August and another in September. Their relatives have held a series of protests in recent days, voicing their frustration over the lack of progress in securing the release of their loved ones.
In a brief statement following Nasrallah’s speech and before taking part in a Cabinet meeting, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said the government was in fact negotiating directly with the Syrian abductors.
The minister also reiterated his request for Turkey to help in the release of the remaining hostages. “We hope the Turks will help Lebanon [free the hostages] just as Lebanon helped it [Ankara] secure the release of the kidnapped” Turkish citizens on Lebanese soil, Charbel said in remarks to a local radio station.
Charbel renewed his hopes that the men would be released despite difficulties. “There are opportunities that can be expanded to win their freedom,” he said, without elaborating. The kidnappers have demanded that Nasrallah apologize to the Syrian people for supporting the Syrian regime. Nasrallah outlined challenges that his party would face in 2013, during a “very dangerous phase.” He denounced what he said were attempts by Israel and the U.S. to suffocate Hezbollah politically and cut off its funding, calling them futile. “In the coming year, we will face many challenges as the Americans and Israelis are besieging us with efforts to place Hezbollah on the European Union’s terrorist list, restricting the group’s movement in Latin America and so on,” Nasrallah said. “All these efforts will be in vain ... you will never erase our memory in history,” he added. The Hezbollah leader continued that his group was also ready to draft and put in place a strategy to protect the country’s oil and gas wealth. “We call on the state to put forward a national strategic plan and if they want to leave it up to us, we are ready [to defend Lebanon’s fossil fuel resources],” he said. “In order to protect the national oil resources, the resistance is ready to do whatever is asked of it,” Nasrallah said, describing the potential reserves as “a national, historic opportunity to lift Lebanon” out of its socioeconomic crisis.

Cabinet green-lights refugee plan
January 04, 2013/By Nafez Kawas, Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Cabinet voted Thursday to approve a comprehensive plan to deal with the massive numbers of refugees fleeing to Lebanon from strife-torn Syria during a marathon session marred by sharp rhetoric over how the government should approach this sensitive issue. Five ministers from MP Michel Aoun’s parliamentary Change and Reform bloc and Minister of State Nicolas Fattoush voted against the government’s plan, which appeals to the international community for nearly $180 million to help cash-strapped Lebanon address the needs of thousands of refugees. Energy Minister Gebran Bassil, backed by other ministers from Aoun’s bloc, proposed the closure of Lebanon’s border with Syria as a measure to stem the flow of refugees, but this proposal was rejected by most ministers, Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour told reporters after the six-hour meeting chaired by President Michel Sleiman at Baabda Palace. “This matter [closing the border] is inapplicable and no official can tell a family fleeing death [in Syria] that it’s forbidden to enter Lebanon,” said Faour, the acting information minister.
Faour, who belongs to Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc, said there were different opinions, “bordering on contradictions,” over how to address the rising influx of displaced people from Syria. “The state will continue searching for funds to implement the plan. President Sleiman has begun contacts to reduce some of Lebanon’s burdens in this issue,” he added Abu Faour said the Cabinet discussed how to face the challenges resulting from the continued flow of refugees from Syria into Lebanon. After lengthy discussions, the Cabinet agreed on a host of measures to deal with the refugee issue, he said.
Among the measures included in the government’s plan are urging donor countries to implement their pledges to extend aid to Lebanon and calling on the Arab League and international organizations to hold emergency meetings to highlight the situation of the refugees, Abu Faour said. He added that the Lebanese state would register the actual refugees in order to ensure that they receive aid.
Over 170,000 Syrian refugees have arrived in Lebanon since the conflict erupted in Syria in March 2011, in addition to nearly 15,000 Palestinians who have fled to Lebanon following last month’s fierce clashes in the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk in Damascus between government forces and rebel groups. The Cabinet also agreed to launch an Arab-international campaign to urge donor states to share with Lebanon the financial burdens of accommodating the refugees as well as their number, Abu Faour said.
He added that Interior Minister Marwan Charbel was tasked with establishing a security cell with the Lebanese Army, the Internal Security Forces, General Security and State Security to hammer out a security plan to follow up the conditions of refugees. Addressing the Cabinet session, Sleiman said the refugee issue should be addressed in an objective manner by all official departments in order to ensure that Lebanon was carrying out its humanitarian duties, while preserving its sovereignty, stability and security. Prime Minister Najib Mikati underlined the necessity of dealing with the refugee crisis with the logic of the state that exercises its role in a way that preserves Lebanon’s security and stability, Abu Faour said. Earlier Thursday, Tourism Minister Fadi Abboud, who belongs to Aoun’s bloc, said it supported the building of camps like those in Turkey and Jordan to accommodate the refugees in Lebanon. “Our position stems from our concern for humanity and from the inability of Lebanon to secure the humanitarian demands and needs of the refugees in a proper way,” Abboud told the Central News Agency. However, Minister of State Ahmad Karami, speaking to reporters before entering the Cabinet session, said there would be no camps for the refugees and the Lebanese border with Syria would not be closed.
Ahead of the Cabinet session, Mikati discussed the issue of Syrian refugees during a meeting with German Ambassador to Lebanon Birgitta Siefker-Eberle, who declared afterward that Germany would donate an additional $19 million in response to the government’s $179 million aid appeal.
The meeting at the Grand Serail was also attended by representatives of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and UNICEF.
Referring to the government’s aid appeal to the international community, Siefker-Eberle said in a statement after the meeting: “As a reaction to the Response Plan of the Lebanese government, Germany has pledged to cover a share of more than 10 percent of the sum identified by the Response Plan, in numbers 14.73 million euros, which equals $19.2 million.”
She said the new pledge of $19. 2 million comes on top of $15 million that Berlin has already donated for the support of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
The parliamentary Future bloc of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri urged the government to organize an international donor conference to help it cope with the influx of Syrian and Palestinian refugees into Lebanon.
In a statement issued after its weekly meeting, the bloc blamed the government for “aggravating the problem of Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon because it had evaded since the beginning of the crisis in Syria from drawing up a clear-cut policy on the Syrian refugees in order to meet the demands of the Syrian regime, which has denied the presence of a refugee problem in the first place.”
“The more realistic solution [to the refugee problem] is for the government to organize a regional-international conference of donor states and organizations to support the Lebanese government’s plan aimed at aiding the Syrian refugees and helping them overcome their suffering,” the statement said. Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai slammed Lebanon’s rival factions, urging them to take part in National Dialogue to address the issue of Syrian refugees.
“Shame on you for not attending Dialogue,” said Rai. “It is shameful for officials to not attend Dialogue and address the Syrian refugee case, the biggest national and humanitarian issue we are facing today.”

Four lawmakers pack their bags for Downtown hotel
January 04, 2013/By Van Meguerditchian/The Daily Star
The five-story Etoile Suites hotel is located only meters away from Parliament.
BEIRUT: Four March 14 MPs will move into a five-star hotel in Downtown Beirut next week as a security precaution, as meetings of Parliament’s electoral law subcommittee are set to resume. Minyeh MP Ahmad Fatfat, Metn MP Sami Gemayel, Beirut MP Serge Torsarkissian and Chouf MP George Adwan will check into the hotel sometime between Monday evening and Tuesday morning next week. The five-story Etoile Suites hotel is located only meters away from Parliament and it, like other Downtown businesses, is struggling. Its occupancy rate currently hovers around 30 percent. “Now that the New Year’s holidays are over, the hotel will be empty of guests and we are expecting the members of Parliament,” a member of the hotel’s management said Thursday. A series of assassinations and assassination attempts against March 14 politicians in the past seven years has prompted many members of the coalition to refuse to attend Parliamentary sessions. March 14 members of the subcommittee stopped attending its meetings after the October assassination of Internal Security Forces intelligence chief, Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan. In addition to the political standoff between March 14 and the March 8-dominated government, the boycott of the subcommittee has hindered progress on a new electoral law for the parliamentary polls, tentatively scheduled for early June. MPs Fatfat and Torsarkissian said they were satisfied with the Lebanese Army’s extra security measures for their safety. “I have full confidence that the Army has increased its security measures and we will go to the hotel next week to discuss the electoral law,” said Fatfat. “We are going in with a positive spirit and we will present them [March 8] our electoral law proposal which is based on 50 small districts,” he added. Torsarkissian said that the meetings would take the form of a “unique dialogue” between the rival sides. An Army official responsible for the security of Nijmeh Square, where Parliament is located, said there are already sufficient measures in place to ensure the safety of the hotel. Behind the hotel are Army barracks and an Army checkpoint standing 2 meters from the hotel’s entrance, preventing vehicles from entering the street.
Shops and restaurants near the hotel told The Daily Star that they were given no notice by the police or the Army that a number of lawmakers would be living in the hotel as of next week. Etoile Suites’ management also refused to formally confirm to The Daily Star that the MPs would be staying at the hotel. “No one told me anything. There are security personnel [living] throughout the neighborhood anyway,” the owner of a souvenir store near the hotel told The Daily Star. “Business is bad already; the last thing we need is more security,” said the owner, who declined to give his name. The March 14 lawmakers will likely have plenty of privacy as the hotel’s 21 suites will be almost empty of any guests by this weekend, according to the member of the hotel’s management. Presently, the prices of the hotel’s diplomatic and royal suites, where the MPs are likely to stay, range between $600-$800 a night. It won’t be the first time lawmakers concerned for their safety have checked into hotels. After car bombs claimed the lives of a number of politicians between 2005 and 2007, at least a dozen MPs from the Future Movement took refuge at the Phoenicia Hotel for several months, limiting their movement around the country.

Hug Hezbollah to death if necessary
By Michael Young/The Daily Star/January 03, 2013/
Turkey’s assessment is that the regime of President Bashar Assad will survive another three months. If that’s true, it may undercut Hezbollah’s strategy in Lebanon, namely to use summer elections in order to gird the party with the legitimacy of state institutions, in that way protecting its weapons. Hezbollah will not disappear, but the party must pursue more modest objectives, or it may lose everything.
Hezbollah has already stated that it seeks a proportional law for the elections, hoping this will bring it a parliamentary majority with its allies, so it can choose a president in 2014. Hezbollah assumes that Saad Hariri would lose more seats than the party under a proportional system. And yet March 14 and Walid Jumblatt’s bloc control the majority of parliamentarians who favor the 1960 law. This assumes that Christian parties in March 14 will accept the law as a basis for elections. If no broad agreement over a new law is reached, the 1960 law will prevail, and Hezbollah in all probability will lose.
So what are Hezbollah’s options? To delay elections and retain the present government? That is possible, but the downside, especially if Assad is ousted before then, is that this would provoke anger in Lebanon, with few people understanding why there are no elections given that the Syrian conflict is over. This would make Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s position untenable, particularly if Jumblatt bolts. So, that path is hard to envisage, and no doubt foreign embassies would urge the government to hold the elections on time.
The 1960 law would surely govern those elections, as there is almost no likelihood of a consensus over an alternative law before summer. Christians don’t like the 1960 law, which is why Geagea needs to show that he’s unhappy with the law, before ultimately agreeing to it. His final approval of the 1960 law he would probably use to push Saad Hariri to place Lebanese Forces candidates on his lists, and in that way secure a substantial bloc. Perhaps Geagea is hoping that this would allow him to claim that he is the principal Christian representative, in the hope that in 2014 it will propel him into the presidency.
Hezbollah will attempt to rally Christians against the law, but this will not be easy. That’s why Geagea has to be careful and not discredit the 1960 law too much. The election law proposal of the Lebanese Forces has zero chance of being approved, and it is useful only as an instrument that Geagea can use to extract concessions from Hariri on behalf of Geagea’s candidates. Beyond that, Geagea must avoid falling into Hezbollah’s trap of becoming a bettering ram against a 1960 law that the party regards as its ticket to defeat.
What the party would ideally like to do in 2014 is use a parliamentary majority to bring a friendly president to office. The assumption is that the party favorite is Jean Kahwagi, the Army commander. However, once Assad goes, Kahwagi will see his electoral chances virtually disappear. He is regarded as someone too close to Hezbollah and Michel Aoun to be reassuring to March 14. In order to improve his chances, Kahwagi may distance the Army from Hezbollah after Assad falls, so that March 14 finds him more palatable.
But even then, Kahwagi would face two sets of problems: Those backing him may be on the defensive, while the political alliance expected to benefit from the collapse of the Assad regime distrusts him. To reverse the latter mood, the commander will have to take steps to satisfy his critics and alienate his supporters. And second, we would have to watch Michel Aoun’s moves. Aoun may present himself as a presidential candidate, putting Hezbollah in a quandary. Hezbollah’s inability to impede the 1960 law is at the heart of its dilemma. The party’s problem is that Jumblatt cannot possibly accept a proportional law, which would guarantee his political marginalization. That is why Hezbollah must find a system that satisfies Jumblatt and undermines Hariri. That’s no easy task. There is mistrust between Hariri and Jumblatt, but neither sees an interest in breaking ranks over a new law. They intend to be electoral allies and together have a majority to derail any alternative to the 1960 law.
If Hezbollah cannot impose a new law, and cannot block elections, and cannot elect its favored candidate to the presidency, what is the party to do? The assumption in March 14 is that Assad’s downfall will bring the party running to the negotiating table. That’s doubtful. But what the situation may do is make Hezbollah reckless, as it deploys the one thing it still retains, military power, to keep its political foes in line.
However, Sunnis are no longer willing to stand down. Hezbollah’s intimidation is bound to lead to a new civil war, which Hezbollah cannot hope to win, whatever its prowess. Lebanon would be destroyed in the process, with no one emerging a clear victor.
That’s why March 14 must head off Hezbollah’s actions by pursuing the dialogue that it today deems unnecessary. The party has read events in Syria wrong and is reaching a political dead end. Helping it out of this impasse through negotiations, and not through a frontal assault, is the best way to earn concessions from an over-armed organization.
The party’s political strategy, in light of what the removal of the Assads would mean for Lebanon, will fail. Otherwise we may see violence, which March 14, the prospective beneficiary of change in Syria, must avert at all costs. This means divining Hezbollah’s objectives and ensuring they are neutralized. And if it requires hugging Hezbollah to death, so be it. The party will not melt away, even if the future looks increasingly bleak to its officials.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Aoun to Accept Any Electoral Law if President's Powers Returned to Way They Were Pre-Taif Accord
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said on Thursday that the Bkirki meetings that were held between Christian leaders to reach an agreement over a new parliamentary electoral law found that the Orthodox Gathering law offers the best representation, followed by the law based on proportional representation. He said: “I am ready to accept any electoral law on condition that the president's privileges be restored to what they were before the Taif Accord.”“We will accept the Orthodox Gathering law and a weak Christian leader, but on condition that we acquire 64 lawmakers are parliament,” he added after the Change and Reform bloc's weekly meeting at Rabiyeh. “The blackmail that has been going on since the Taif Accord must stop. There are some 24 Christian lawmakers who are not affiliated to me. Let them have them. I do not represent anyone. Let them accept the Orthodox Gathering law,” he declared.
“Let them explain to me why the Orthodox Gathering law was rejected,” Aoun demanded. “I will not believe the excuse that it was rejected in defense of national unity. I alone am sacrificing 24 MPs in the name of unity,” he stressed. Commenting on the case of refugees flooding Lebanon from Syria, Aoun said: “This issue is beyond humanitarian.”“Arab countries that are funding and arming the rebels should halt the unrest in Syria and turn to dialogue,” he proposed. “Lebanon does not have enough space for the refugees. We have not closed the border in their faces, but the country can no longer support their burden,” he noted.
Addressing some Tripoli Muslim clerics' call against Christmas celebrations, the MP declared: “Some of their statements are an ill omen and we have no room in our future for such calls.”
“Silence over this issue is worse than the silence over the armament of various groups. Murders and takfiri thinking contradict the teachings of Islam,” he added. The Lebanese constitution speaks of the absolute freedom of belief and practice in Lebanon, he stressed. The Koran also speaks against takfiris, he continued. “Only God can act as our judge,” stressed Aoun.

Hezbollah to act strategically, keep composure
January 04, 2013 /y Mirella Hodeib The Daily Star
Hezbollah will act strategically and play all of its cards in the face of a pending resolution to the bloodshed in Syria, a source close to the party told The Daily Star this week.
Hezbollah will remain undaunted in the face of attempts by regional and local rivals to drag it into a domestic conflict and will exhibit further endurance in dealing with the ever growing challenges ensuing from the crisis next door, the source adds. But the source believes that Hezbollah’s patience has its limits, although the events of May 2008 – when Hezbollah and its allies took over swathes of west Beirut in response to a government decision to dismantle the group’s private telecommunications network – is unlikely to be repeated. The sectarian clashes that killed more than 80 were widely seen as a black mark in the record of the resistance movement that at one point vowed not to use its weapons on the domestic front. The source also confides that Hezbollah is well aware that many local and regional players want its head on a plate and the only means to achieve that goal is igniting Sunni-Shiite strife in Lebanon. Hezbollah also believes that the Future Movement, which enjoys huge financial clout, and Hezbollah, which wields huge military clout, will continue to be at loggerheads for the foreseeable future. This conflict existed long before the Syrian unrest erupted. But according to the source, if Hezbollah is “intolerably cornered,” it will strike back.
“However, the 2008 scenario will not happen again,” the source says. “Or let’s say that this time Hezbollah will be much more careful.” The powerful party also discerns the lack of enthusiasm displayed by Western powers for a conflict in Lebanon. This aversion to conflict is “definitely not out of courtesy,” the source explains, “but because a stable Lebanon works in favor of the turmoil in Syria.” The source says Hezbollah foresees that the conflict in Syria will drag on, but is confident that the “terrorist groups” fighting the regime of President Bashar Assad will eventually surrender. In addition, the source continues, the international community realizes that any confrontation with Hezbollah will automatically engender repercussions for Israel. The source argues that the multinational United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and, surprisingly enough, Israel are actually calmed by the presence of Hezbollah in south Lebanon.
“They will not be as serene if Salafist groups, which never officially declared Israel as an enemy, take over south Lebanon,” the source continues. “Hezbollah’s presence is a guarantor against the rise of extremism.”
On the domestic scene, the source argues that Hezbollah will also maintain the composure it has so far shown, even if that means centrist figures such as President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt gain ground at the expense of the party and its allies in the March 8 coalition. The source describes centrist figures and parties as “buffers” rather than “decision-makers” whose role merely consists of either defusing tension or obstructing problematic issues that could lead to confrontations. “When important deals are brokered, centrists no longer count,” the source says. “The biggest slices of the cake go to the biggest players.”