Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 01/10
Hillary Clinton in hospital amid speculation of plane accident in Iran
Hillary Clinton hospitalized with blood clot
Hillary Rodham Clinton in hospital with blood clot
2012 Cultural Round Up: London’s Middle East
Iran test-fires missiles near Strait of Hormuz
Mubarak Health “deteriorating” – Medical sources
Israel and the Palestinians, A briefing by Steven J. Rosen
Iraq demands end to 'illegitimate' demos
Talks under way for end to Lebanese stalemate
Does 2013 spell the return of the STL?
Sleiman to cancel or postpone Dialogue
Hezbollah MP says Cabinet shielded Lebanon from Syria crisis
Berri urges politicians to give
Report: Sami Gemayel Suggests Opposition MPs to Pay Expenses of Hotel Stay
Israeli warplanes violate Lebanon airspace
Zahra: LF committed to holding elections on time
U.S. supports new electoral law in Lebanon: ambassador
Geagea, Sayyed trade barbs over Chamoun killing
Berri Advises Bickering Camps to Meet Halfway, Says he Has Several Electoral Law Proposals
Lebanese University Contract Teachers Hold Sit-in near Baabda Palace Demanding Full-Time Employment
Qabbani: Elections of Higher Islamic Council to be Held in Late Feb.
March 14 Holds Onto Rejection of Proportionality over 'Hegemony of Arms'
Assad's forces battle to retake Damascus suburb
Syria says will respond to any talks on ending conflict
30 tortured bodies found in Damascus: activists
Jordan arrests 4 Syrian soldiers near border
Nearly 90% of Syria Conflict Dead Killed in 2012 

Hillary Clinton in hospital amid speculation of plane accident in Iran
DEBKAfile Special Report December 31, 2012/US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s admittance to the New York-Presbyterian Hospital Monday, Dec, 31 - with a blood clot caused by concussion - gave wings to a cloud of rumor and conspiracy theories surrounding her state of health. The hospital, where Saudi King Abdullah was also treated two years ago, stated that the Secretary was receiving anti-coagulents and her condition would be assessed after 48 hours.
However, NBC television’s medical correspondent Robert Bazell was skeptical about the blood clot being caused by an earlier concussion because, he said, it if were, it would not be treated with anti-coagulents. “So either it's not really related to the concussion and she’s got a blood clot in her leg or something, or there’s something else going on that we’re not being told.”
Speculation about her condition started flying about in early December, when she cancelled without notice, her participation in the Friends of Syrian forum in Marrakesh on Dec, 6. Not only was she one of the founders of this forum, but her presence was vitally needed at the time because NATO and Washington were picking up suspicious movements of the Syrian army’s chemical weapons, which marked a disastrous turn in the Syrian conflict.
She was first reported to have come down with flu and, three days later, on Dec, 9, with a stomach bug.
On Dec. 10, the day before she was due to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee on the September 11 terrorist attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi - in which Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other US diplomats lost there lives - the State Department which has been heavily under fire over the episode, announced that Clinton had sustained a concussion after fainting out from dehydration.
None of the details normally released in such cases, such as when exactly she fainted, the seriousness of the concussion she suffered or how she was being treated, was offered. A State Department source was only willing to say it was “not severe.”
According to another unofficial report, she was apparently working from home. No one in the office appeared to have been delegated her functions although the secretary herself has not been absent for three weeks.
Then, Friday, Dec. 21, President Barack Obama announced the nomination of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry as next Secretary of State. Clinton had made it known for some time that she intended stepping down at the start of Obama’s second term of office. It was reported that she had talked to the president and Kerry, and commended the senator as having proven his mettle in a long and wide-ranging military, political and diplomatic career. Nothing was said on this occasion about her state of health.
But around Tehran and the Gulf Emirates, debkafile was already picking up insistent rumors claiming that Clinton was seriously injured while on a secret mission in the region in the first week of December. Some claimed that in the same incident, Americans in her party - advisers and security personnel - were either injured or killed. Those rumors did not say what her secret mission was. However, the episode described occurred shortly after Dec. 1, when, as debkafile reported at the time, Obama administration officials and senior representatives of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched secret talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Although our sources have not identified the negotiators on either side of the table, one of the theories floating around certain capitals claimed that Hillary Clinton three weeks ago was on her way to a secret meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in regard to those negotiations. The plane carrying her from Bahrain logged its destination as Baghdad, but is described as having changed direction in midair and headed for Ahvaz, capital of the south Iranian province of Khuzestan. There, it was said, the Iranian president was awaiting her arrival. But then the plane ran into technical trouble and made an emergency landing and that was when she was injured, according to this theory.
The unexplained death of Commander Job Price, 42, SEALs commander in Afghanistan is tied by some of the speculation to that incident. At the time, the Pentagon reported that his sudden death on Dec. 22, in Uruzgan, Afghanistan, was under investigation. It is now suggested that Commander Price was head of the security detail attached to Clinton for her Iran mission and he was one of the casualties of the accident.
In the nature of things, the impact these kinds of rumors have lingers even when they are officially denied – especially given Secretary Clinton's unusually long absence from the public eye. The medical report promised Wednesday after she is monitored at the hospital for 48 hours to assess her condition, “including other issues associated with her concussion,” is tensely awaited. After that, said the hospital announcement, “her doctors will determine if any further action is required.”
Clinton, known as the most traveled Secretary of State in US diplomatic history, has been in the international spotlight since 1992 when her husband Bill Clinton was elected president and she became first lady. She then served in the US Senate and later ran for the presidency against Barack Obama.

Mubarak Health “deteriorating” – Medical sources
By Mohamed Abdul Rauf
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – Medical sources at Maadi Armed Forces Hospital, where former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is currently being treated, informed Asharq Al-Awsat that his health is “deteriorating” adding “he is falling in and out of consciousness. He is also suffering from a cracked pelvis and suspected rib fractures, in addition to ear problems that have affected his ability to hear to a large extent resulting in him using a hearing-aid.”
The medical source, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, revealed that “Mubarak cannot move around in a normal manner and he is utilizing a wheelchair or confined to bed.” He added that since his arrival at the hospital last week, the former president has undergone treatment in the intensive care room since.
The medical source said “Mubarak may be living his final days, and his return to the medical wing of Tora prison at this time is impossible.”
The medical source also revealed that since his arrival at the hospital last Thursday, Mubarak has been visited by numerous family members, including his wife. He said “when Mubarak regained consciousness he asked to see his grandchildren….and this happened yesterday.”
For its part, Egyptian State TV on Sunday reported that “President Mubarak is passing through difficult times and is struggling with death at Maadi Armed Forces Hospital.”
Security has been tightened at the hospital following Mubarak’s transfer last Thursday, with Egypt’s Central Security Forces and Military Police posting guards at entrances and exits.
A court sentenced the former president to life imprisonment in June for failing to prevent the killing of protesters during the 18-day revolt that ended his 30 year rule. Some 850 people died in the uprising.
Egypt’s Prosecutor-General, Talaat Ibrahim, approved the transfer of former President Mubarak to Maadi Military hospital for medical treatment after a special medical committee issued a report confirming that he was suffering from a number of medical issues requiring immediate treatment after suffering a fall at Tora prison. Egypt’s official news agency MENA reported that x-rays showed that Mubarak had fractured several ribs in the fall and that he also had a build-up of fluid in his lungs.
For his part, Mubarak lawyer Farid al-Deeb stressed that the former president is expected to remain in hospital for at least the next two weeks. He told Reuters “he underwent x-rays on his body and now he will get proper treatment in the hospital for all the bone problems he has been suffering from.”

The Gulf media and the Mursi government
By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat
Can we understand the concerns of governments in the Gulf towards the Islamists sweeping the presidential and parliamentary elections in post-revolution Egypt and Tunisia, and the fear of this impacting on the situation in the Gulf? The answer is yes. Does the solution lie in antagonizing the new post-revolution governments in direct and indirect ways, using the weapons of the media and possibly the economy, to counter the growing Islamist tide as a pre-emptive blow before its influence reaches the stable and prosperous Gulf nations? The answer is no.
Is there another way to accommodate these changes in the political arena in a manner that preserves the stability of the Gulf States whilst maintaining normal relations with the countries of the Arab Spring? The answer is certainly yes. Are the Arab Gulf states made from a different fabric to that of the other Arab states that experienced revolutions? The answer is also yes, whatever is said about related ills and problems.
Yes the Gulf States, their people and governments, are right to worry about the changes that have emerged as a result of the Arab revolutions. The circumstances in the Gulf States do not match those of the Arab revolution states, and the nature of the relationship between the ruler and the ruled is certainly different. The Gulf States, even if they suffer some similar symptoms of disease, should not be treated by the same surgical procedures, nor should the same prescription be written for them. Here me must heed the familiar doctor’s warning; do not use treatments prescribed for another patient, even if you have the same symptoms. The people of the Gulf are refusing to universalize the “revolutions remedy” on their own states, or at least this is the conviction of the majority, where security and stability have become invaluable in the eyes of Gulf residents. They have realized the extremely dangerous and grave price of a revolution through what is happening in Syria, and the fragile security situation and weakness of the central government in Tunisia, Libya and even Yemen. This is something that countries where revolutions and political movements have taken place, whatever their orientation, must also take into account. Even if in some Gulf nations there are movements towards reform and urgent desires to bring about change in order to keep pace with new variables, it must be recognizes that these changes and reforms come within a Gulf framework, i.e. a policy of reforming the house from within with the minimum losses. Reform and repairs are important but it is not necessary to destroy the building itself and then rebuild it from scratch.
At the same time, the Gulf States must keep pace with the political changes that first sparked the revolutions with rationalism and realism, even if the Islamists came to power in the end. It is true that most Gulf governments, officially speaking, have left the door ajar to the Arab Spring states, and on the surface of their foreign policies towards them there is nothing to indicate a severance of diplomatic relations. However, some media outlets in the Gulf are clearly trying to strain relations with the countries of the Arab Spring, especially Egypt. This, in my judgment, is not in the interests of any party. The period in which the Gulf States’ relations with Egypt are going through now is akin to tender and malleable clay and it is a critical period. If neglected, irrational voices will have the last word, and the clay will be hardened in no one’s interests.
The disturbing thing is that there are certain loud, “popular, not official” voices that have chosen, in a convulsive manner, to open the doors of conflict with the Arab Spring governments. We can accept that this has no bearing on the political balance, but the media in some Gulf States is still cause for concern. These outlets should be helping to calm the situation, even if they do not like the arrival of Islamist rule. It is not the solution to take sides in the conflict between governments and their opposition, especially when these governments came to power in a democratic manner that was recognized around the world with fair and impartial elections.
The logic of politics dictates that it is always necessary to deal with those who come to power, even if by way of a coup. In the past the Gulf states have had to deal with the regimes of Saddam Hussein, Hafez al-Assad, Muammar Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and at that time the Gulf media’s approach was conservative in a bid to clear the air with these states, with respect to the ideology of their rulers. It is essential to continue this approach with the new governments, whose leaders did not reach power on the back of a tank, but rather through the ballot box. After the majority of Egyptians voted in favor of the constitution, and after the weakness of the Egyptian opposition became clear, along with its inability to fight the Islamists when the will of the people has been invoked, it’s high time that we recognized the interests of the Gulf States and their strategic relationship with Egypt. This means the Gulf media must live with the Egyptian political reality and accept the will of its people, rather than what we want. At the very least, the media must deal with the new, popularly-elected governments in the same way as it dealt with the former regimes.

2012 Cultural Round Up: London’s Middle East
By Sheyma Buali/London, Asharq Al-Awsat - 2012 in London was a diamond year with its jovial celebration of the queen’s 60th year on the throne. Besides the royal jubilee, the entire city of London was the star of an amazing Olympics during the summer months of July and August. Culturally, in the year 2012, London was shining brighter than any other city in the world!
Special programs and events were organized throughout the year, on top of the city’s usual slew of festival and fairs. Among the annual events were the more geographically focused, such as 15th annual Palestine Film Festival and the 3rd annual Nour Festival of Middle Eastern and North African Arts, as well as the more global 10th annual Frieze and the 56th London Film Festival. Each of these events brought something strong and new to our cannon of visual cultures and modes of storytelling. Here are some of the most interesting exhibitions, events and individual works of the year 2012.
Great London:
Starting with the local British scene, among the most interesting exhibitions of the year was surprisingly the National Portrait Gallery’s The Queen: Art and Image. It is a ‘surprise’ because one can argue that Queen Elizabeth II’s portrait is a rather everyday sight. But the exhibition traced more than portraiture of the Queen, but her voyage from the time of her father’s death, marking her accession to the throne, up till today. More than a time-ready celebration of the monarch’s image it was a study of the way she is seen by the public. The exhibition looked at questions regarding royals’ public relations, the people’s respect for their emblem, the shift of the Queen’s image from regal to pop, and even punk, icon, and the personal relationships that affected the nation, namely with the late Princess Diana.
During this year’s Olympics, London was inundated with sports celebrations and events. But not until after the moaning and grumbling about security, prices, traffic and even a possible alien attack (no joke!). Among the first exhibitions to put the excitement back to the games was another portraiture exhibition, this time brought over from Qatar and shown at Sotheby’s Gallery. Commissioned by the Qatar Museum Authority, the portraits included still photographs by the accomplished portraitist Brigitte Lacombe along with short videos by her sister, the filmmaker Marian Lacombe. Without glossing over the individuality of each of the women they shot, the exhibition looked at the challenges that they faced in reaching their Olympian potential. From the cultural challenges of women playing sports to the natural challenges of a disabled athlete, there were women who represented every Arab country in the amazing Olympics and Paralympics games of 2012.
Design:
There were two notable designers whose works stood out, both presented at this year’s Nour Festival. Nour, an annual festival of arts based in Kensington and Chelsea, is an autumn-long event. This year’s strengths came in the curators’ decision to give space to newly emerging artists. Of the ones that stood out were the graphic designer known only at Muiz (*1), and the spatial designer, DiaBatal. While Batal’s work ranges between furniture and upholstery that combines poetry and her own signature calligraphy, Muiz’s style is starkly modern, looking at new ways to view words, letters and angles. Both modernize the use of lettering by creating their own forms of typography, but to completely different ends adding a great visual diversification to among the oldest aesthetical forms of the Arab world.
Literature:
Two very exciting Arab wins in literature this year were introduced to a larger, English speaking world via English PEN, an organization whose service includes defending writers and readers whose human right to expression is threatened. The PEN Pinter International Writer of Courage prize went to Syrian journalist and author, Samar Yazbek, for her book Woman Caught in Crossfire. Her chronicles of the first 100 days of the Syrian up rise was chosen by British poet laureate Carol Ann Duffy. As a member of the Alawite sect of Syria, Yazbek risked her own freedom and severed many personal ties in order to publish this memoire. Hassan Blasim’sThe Iraqi Christ, a collection of short stories written by the Iraqi writer and filmmaker, won the PEN Writers in Translation Award. While his life story is one he tells with matter-of-fact tumult, his fictional writing challenges the tradition of storytelling and, more importantly, the language used to tell stories. His raw style is refreshing in a world where language and tradition have kept a strong hold on manners and narration.
Film:
In film, 2012 will go down as the year that opened doors to Gulf cinema, to Saudi cinema more specifically, and to Arab women in cinema. The first film to be entirely shot in Saudi Arabia, Wadjda, toured the world to rave reviews. Director Haifa Al Mansour admits that being a female director in the male-dominated Saudi society was difficult, but it was no reason for her to stay out of the frame. Wadjda won multiple awards for its acting and production values at Venice Film Festival, Dubai International Film Festival and the Tallinn Film Festival. The film will be getting its general UK release in April 2013.
London is very lucky to get knowledge-rich film festivals all year around. The annual London Palestine Film Festival marked its 15th this year. It incorporated over 50 works by artists from 16 countries. The very unique 2012 program included unique film styles, such as comedy festival opener, Man Without a Cell Phone, by SamehZoabi; a deep academic study of British archival films from Palestine with a discussion with historian IllanPappe, anthropologist Christopher Pinney and filmmaker and educator Kamal AlJafari; a study of Zionism in cinema by the academic Ella Shohat; and out-of-the-vault surprises such as the French-made 1972 Maoist film, L’Olivier. The 2013 program is well anticipated.
Theater:
And finally, this was a great year for Arab theater in London. Spring and autumn brought a number of Arabic plays to the capital. The biannual London International Festival of Theater (LIFT) however brought three plays from Tunis, Iraq and Syria respectively. This involvement from the Arab region is part of the Festival’s focus on a particular area of the world. We were told to expect more from the Middle Eastern region up until 2016.
London this year, probably more than ever before, incorporated Arab and Middle Eastern artists in almost all cultural programs. Most even spotlighted the region as its focus. This trend does not look like it will be calming down any time soon, particularly with what has now been announced as the biannual Shubbak, the London-wide festival of Arab culture, in gear for 2013. With all the upheaval that has bestowed the Arab people since the Spring of 2011, we can expect however that more and more analysis of works, visual and literal, to take place from London and all year around. While we look at this with trepidation and precision in terms of the way we reflect on arts at such a riotoustime, the Arab world is making a turn in its cultural canon. We will be witnessing this for years to come.

Israeli warplanes violate Lebanon airspace
December 31, 2012 12:/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Israeli warplanes violated Lebanon’s airspace for the second day in a row Monday, the National News Agency reported.The warplanes executed flights on a low attitude in the northern Bekaa and Hermel areas, the NNA said.Similar violations took place Sunday in South Lebanon.Warplanes executed circular flights over the southern town of Naqoura, the town of Kfarkela and Baalbek area.

Talks under way for end to Lebanese stalemate
December 31, 2012/By Antoine Ghattas Saab
The Daily Star
Diplomatic sources in Beirut expect a breakthrough in the Syrian crisis soon, with a U.S.-Russia meeting in Geneva brokered by international peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi set for Jan. 6.
They believe this meeting will set a framework for an international resolution aimed at a cease-fire and launching the political solution Brahimi has been pushing for. According to Brahimi’s plan, a 3,000-strong international peacekeeping force will be dispatched into Syria after a truce. Also involved is a transitional government with full authority, and finding common ground between the Syrian opposition – who largely reject President Bashar Assad playing any part in settlement – and Russia, Iran and its allies – who believe Assad should have a role in a solution.
Sources told The Daily Star that this eminent settlement is already reflecting on Lebanon, and talks are under way between Speaker Nabi Berri and the head of the Future parliamentary bloc, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. These talks would be a first step toward finding a common ground between the Future bloc and that led by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
They added that March 14 forces are discreetly beseeching President Michel Sleiman to host two-party talks between the various parties that participated in the National Dialogue. This would allow each group to express its concerns frankly, an important prerequisite because National Dialogue without a clear agenda will fail.
Efforts are ongoing to hold an official meeting between Future Movement and Amal leaders on recent local and regional developments that would form a new framework for communication between the parties, according to other sources.Sources say that for its part, Hezbollah has come to believe it must be more flexible and open to other Lebanese parties if it is to hold onto its political gains when Assad falls.
However, the sources said that the main obstacle to dialogue is in March 14’s rejection of any concessions, given its belief that it has regained the upper hand as the Syrian regime is weakened.
March 14 is committed to the following demands: no dialogue with a government headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati; no proportional representation if Hezbollah’s arms remain in play; and no interference in Syrian affairs by Lebanese parties.
It also is seeking a neutral government to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections and implementation of the Baabda Declaration.
Siniora has conveyed a message to Sleiman, including suggestions for moving forward with negotiations that take into consideration the concerns of March 8 but do not surrender to their conditions.
The sources also mention a French initiative to break the stalemate that is being discussed in some circles. The conditions of this deal are as follows:
- The formation of a neutral government, formed of qualified nonpartisan figures. The government will prepare for elections and commit to abstaining from voting from U.N. or Arab League resolutions involving Syria.
- Lebanon should be isolated from the Syrian crisis, so all parties must refrain from involving themselves in the Syrian struggle, the Lebanese Army should protect border villages, and aid should be secured for refugees.
- A timely, objective and transparent investigation into the October assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, with its findings made public.
- The judiciary should find a solution to the Islamist prisoners who still have not been tried.
- A new government must form a security plan to address the conflict between the Tripoli neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen, detain all those involved, and implement a development plan for the area.

U.S. supports new electoral law in Lebanon: ambassador
December 31, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The U.S. supports the endorsement of a new law for the parliamentary elections in Lebanon and encourages the country to hold elections on time, a statement from the U.S. ambassador said. “The United States welcomes Lebanese efforts to implement an electoral law that would pave the way for free, fair and transparent elections,” said the statement issued Monday by Ambassor Maura Connelly. Conelly’s statement came following a meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain al-Tineh in which they discussed the political and security situation in Lebanon and regional events, particularly in Syria. “The ambassador encourages Lebanon to uphold its democratic and constitutional principles and hold elections on time,” the statement said. The ambassador also renewed the commitment of the U.S. to a stable, sovereign and independent Lebanon.
A parliamentary subcommittee formed in October to discuss a draft law for the coming 2013 elections scheduled to take place in June will resume meetings on Jan. 8. The resumption of meetings comes two months after the March 14-led opposition lawmakers said they could not take part of discussions for security reasons. The subcommittee is reportedly set to hold weeklong intensive meetings to reach an agreement over a new law for the coming elections.

Hezbollah MP says Cabinet shielded Lebanon from Syria crisis
December 31, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Cabinet shielded Lebanon from the repercussions of the Syrian crisis and made a step forward to introduce oil production in the country, Hezbollah MP Nawaf Musawi said Monday.
“Among the achievements of the current Cabinet were guaranteeing Lebanon’s stability by sparing the country the evils of the conflict in Syria,” said Musawi during a party celebration in the southern town of Tawra.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Cabinet has adopted a dissociation policy since the start of the conflict in the war-torn neighboring country.
However, Lebanon has been subject to shelling in both eastern and northern border towns.
According to Musawi, the Cabinet, despite criticism, was able to reach major political achievements and introduce Lebanon as an oil production country.
“After appointing members of the oil committee, this means that the Lebanese state has finalized preparations to get Lebanon into the club of oil production countries,” said the lawmaker.
He added that such a “historical achievement” can turn Lebanon from a poor to a rich country capable of overcoming its economic crisis.
In November, Cabinet was able to form a long-awaited Petroleum Administration.
The six-member committee will have full powers to negotiate with international oil companies and issue licenses for the winning firms to drill for gas off the Lebanese coast.

Berri urges politicians to give up negative attitude
December 31, 2012/The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir)
BEIRUT: Speaker Nabih Berri called on Lebanon’s politicians to be more positive Monday and said the country is confronting a “golden opportunity” to reach an agreement over a new electoral law.
“[Politicians] are required to give up on their negative attitudes. If we don’t reach a positive breakthrough, then there would be something missing in our sense of patriotism,” said the speaker in remarks published by An-Nahar.
Berri said both the March 8 and March 14 rival camps should resume the meetings of the parliamentary subcommittee discussing a new draft law for the coming parliamentary elections.
“The parliamentary subcommittee has paved way for the possibility of a new electoral law. This can lead to a major breakthrough if we know how to seize this golden opportunity,” said Berri.
Berri also said he was willing to extend the meetings for more than a week if the discussions required more time.
However, he warned political rivals would both see failure if no concessions over the elections’ law were made.
Lebanon’s parliamentary elections are set to be held in June 2013. However, no agreement was yet reached over a law for the elections.
Last week, the opposition lawmakers announced that they would participate in the parliamentary subcommittee meeting scheduled on January 8, ending a boycott of parliament meetings for security reasons.

Will Talabani be the first and last Kurdish President of Iraq?
By Abdulghani Ali Yahya/Asharq Alawsat
When Jalal Talabani fell into a coma as a result of a blood clot in his brain and returned to Germany for treatment, rumours spread about his health and even his death, before it was reported that his condition had stabilized. There were also rumours of certain Arab figures being nominated for his position if he were to die or become unable to perform his duties. As a result, the Kurds sought to reserve Talabani's presidential post for themselves, and began naming candidates such as Dr. Ibrahim Saleh, an experienced politician, and Iraq's first lady Hiro Ibrahim Ahmed, a prominent Kurdish activist. On the international scene, two prominent American researchers urged Washington to push for the nomination of another Kurdish president for Iraq. Amidst all this it was if Iran is absent from what was happening, even though it is the key player in the Iraqi arena.
Yet very few seem to have taken into account the potential surprise that could emerge and turn expectations on their head; namely the possibility that Baghdad could reject any subsequent Kurdish figure being the President of Iraq. In fact, this is increasingly probable especially if we take into consideration the rising tension between Baghdad and Erbil, a climate that even threatens war on account of the Iraqi army's confrontations with the Kurdish Peshmerga troops along the border. Furthermore, the al-Maliki government has failed to implement the numerous agreements it had signed previously with various parties to solve the crises that have devastated Iraq for years, such as the Erbil agreement for example, which allocated the Ministry of Defense to the Iraqiya coalition and reserved the National Council for Strategic Policies for the coalition’s chairman, Dr. Iyad Allawi.
If it is true that the al-Maliki government has been successful in withholding these two positions from the Iraqiya bloc – which won 91 seats in the parliament compared to the 89 seats that went to the ruling State of Law Coalition – in addition to the considerable Arab and non-Arab Sunni depth enjoyed by Iraqiya, then why can't the Iraqi government circumvent the Kurds' presidential right? There are several existing factors that would facilitate this circumvention already, such as the fact that the Arab Sunnis were against positions being reserved for the Kurds in the first place, not just Talabani assuming the presidency or Hoshyar Zebari being appointed as Minister of Foreign Affairs. This is because they deemed the Kurds' assumption of these two positions to be excessive, and contrary to Iraq's vision of "pan-Arabism". The Arab Sunni component was always the most vocal in its rejection of Talabani and Zebari’s positions, and this would surely facilitate the endeavour to deprive the Kurds in Iraq’s current circumstances. Furthermore, we must not forget that the Kurds were granted these two positions as an exception or an emergency measure, in an Arab world that normally never allows non-Arabs to hold such positions. Ultimately, all exceptions or emergencies come to an end.
Recently, there have been signs of certain parties opting not to recognise the Kurdish presidential role as seen in the deteriorating relations between al-Maliki and Talabani as well as between al-Maliki and other Kurdish leaders like [Massoud] Barzani. We have also witnessed worsening relations between the central and regional governments, along with several campaigns to oust Hoshyar Zebari. This failure to acknowledge the Kurdish presidential role was especially apparent when Talabani's deputy, Khudair al-Khazani, attended the most recent UN meeting for heads of state, at the time when Talibani was in Germany having recovered from his illness and was able to attend. This is in addition to the Non-Aligned Movement Summit recently held in Tehran, where al-Maliki attended in Talabani’s place.
After returning to Iraq from Germany, Talabani headed to Sulaymaniyah to receive well-wishers. At that time, there was a strong rumour that he would not return to Baghdad. Some may argue that he did indeed return, and this is true, but this was only at Barzani's request to solve the current crisis. During the days that preceded his coma, when Talabani was devoted to solving the political crisis, there was much talk about his relations with al-Maliki becoming somewhat cold, and about moves to break the ice between them.
It is worth noting that Talabani's positive efforts to bring together Iraqi dissidents have always been blocked by movements on the ground carried out by the al-Maliki government. Take for example the formation of the Tigris Operations Command, which has been established to thwart such positive endeavours.
Talabani may live longer, which is everyone's wish except those who are pushing the situation towards further aggravation. However, he may no longer be able to perform his duties owing to his illness or health conditions, or indeed due to the deteriorating relations between Baghdad and Erbil. Therefore, a seizure of all Kurdish positions – i.e. the presidency, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chief of Staff and so on –is becoming more probable.

Report: Sami Gemayel Suggests Opposition MPs to Pay Expenses of Hotel Stay
Naharnet/Phalange Party MP Sami Gemayel suggested that the March 14 opposition lawmakers pay the fees of their stay at a hotel near the parliament to attend the parliamentary subcommittee meetings aimed at discussing the new electoral draft law.Informed sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper on Monday that Gemayel argues that the parliament lacks the required budget to cover the expenses of the opposition MPs' stay at the hotel.
“The Lebanese shouldn't carry yet another burden when they lack their simplest rights,” sources quoted Gemayel as saying.
He pointed out that “those who fear over their lives should pay the expenses, in particular, if they need around 10 days” to wrap up the meetings of the subcommittee.
The electoral subcommittee will convene on January 8 to discuss the electoral law during a one-week timeframe although Speaker Nabih Berri said he was willing to extend its meetings if the MPs were serious about reaching a deal.After a boycott of dialogue sessions and parliamentary work in the past couple of months, March 14 lawmakers have accepted Berri's proposal of residing in a hotel near the parliament in downtown Beirut, as a safety precaution, to attend the meetings of the subcommittee. The opposition alliance had announced following the assassination of Internal Security Forces Intelligence Bureau head Maj. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan on October 19 that it will be boycotting the national dialogue sessions and government-related parliamentary work, awaiting Prime Minister Najib Miqati's resignation.

Geagea, Sayyed trade barbs over Chamoun killing
December 31, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and former security chief Jamil Sayyed continued to trade accusations over the weekend in regards to the assassination of the leader of the National Liberal Party Dany Chamoun. The LF leader was arrested in 1994 and charged with the assassination of Chamoun and his family, in addition to the bombing of a Zouk Mikhael Church. After serving 11 years in prison, Geagea was released in 2005 through an official pardon. Sayyed, a former director of the General Security, said Sunday that Geagea is guilty of the charges that were brought against him, adding that had he been innocent, he would have challenged the judiciary for wrongly trying him.“There is no logical or moral excuse that can justify Samir Geagea’s refusal to ask for compensation for the oppression he says he was subjected to from those trials, especially seven years after being granted a pardon,” said Sayyed in a statement. The statement came after Geagea’s press office accused Sayyed of being behind the fabrications of evidence that were used against him in the trials.
“Jamil Sayyed knows the identities of all those who took part in forging the evidence that was presented to the judges of the Judicial Council back then,” said the LF in a statement over the weekend.
“If there are any real false witnesses in this nation, Sayyed is their master,” the statement added.

Does 2013 spell the return of the STL?
December 31, 2012 12:21 /By Willow Osgood/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: On the eve of 2011, opposition to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon plunged the country into crisis, bringing about the fall of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government shortly after the New Year. What a difference two years can make.
Now on the eve of 2013, the court, once the most divisive political issue in Lebanon – or at least the one that has exposed the country’s divisions most clearly – has been firmly supplanted by the situation in Syria.
Political parties from both sides of the divide are basing their strategic decisions on the belief that the outcome of the Syrian uprising-turned-civil war will determine the balance of power in Lebanon for years to come. Criticism of the STL, whether for being politicized or for not going far enough, has been replaced by accusations of Lebanese parties fighting across the border in support of the Syrian regime or sending weapons to aid Syrian rebels.
But away from the newest political showdown, the STL, established to try those responsible for the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, has been plodding methodically toward trial. It has heard and rejected challenges to its legality and jurisdiction, arguments the court’s opponents have made since its creation. It decided in February to move to trial in absentia of the four Hezbollah members accused in the attack. And in July, Pretrial Judge Daniel Fransen set March 25, 2013 as the tentative start date.
Political and legal analysts are optimistic that it will start – if not exactly on the planned date – sometime in 2013. It could be postponed, especially if the prosecution or defense needs more time to prepare for trial.
For months now, the defense has made it clear that it believes it has been given neither the time nor the cooperation necessary to defend the four indicted men, Salim Ayyash, Mustafa Badreddine, Hussein Oneissi and Assad Sabra.
The defense admonished the Lebanese government in October for not responding to repeated requests for assistance, and said it has “yet to receive even a single document in response.” And in a meeting in late November, Eugene O’Sullivan, the attorney for Ayyash, described the prosecution’s case – which the defense must use to build its own – as “in shambles.”
“I can quite claim that I think the prosecution itself doesn’t know what its case against us is, or if they do they are unwilling to tell us what this case is,” added attorney Guenael Mettraux, who represents Sabra.
The prosecution has had considerably more time to build its case than the defense, but could also seek to push back the trial date. In its pretrial brief – essentially an outline of the case it plans to make – the prosecution said it intended to call 557 witness and present over 13,000 exhibits, a daunting organizational task.
Analysts also agree that even if the trial starts in late March, its conclusion likely remains years away.
“International tribunals are known to be pretty slow,” says Karim el-Mufti, who heads the Human Rights Legal Clinic at La Sagesse University. Mufti cites the court trying war crimes in the former Yugoslavia, which was established by the United Nations almost 20 years ago and has yet to clear its docket. “There won’t be a ruling in 2013,” he adds.
The STL is the first international tribunal in over 50 years to permit trials in absentia, allowing proceedings to begin without the accused in custody. But trials in absentia could also lead to longer proceedings. If the accused men come forward during the trial or after, they can be tried all over again, Mufti says.
But, even without the defendants in the flesh, STL-watchers are confident that the trial – which will be open to the public – will reveal much about the attack that killed Hariri and 22 others.
“The Lebanese should know who ordered the killing. Even in absentia, the defense will defend the four Hezbollah people so we will know more about the crime and who committed it,” says Sari Hanafi, professor of transitional justice at the American University of Beirut.
Whether the public will be watching is an entirely different question. In addition to the Syrian crisis, dynamics within the Sunni community after Saad Hariri, citing security concerns, began living abroad in 2011 have also weakened interest in the upcoming trial, says Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at AUB.
“[Interest in the trial won’t be] to the same extent that one would have expected two years ago. The Arab uprising – particularly the Syrian uprising – has overshadowed it,” says Khashan, adding that the trial would have had more attention “had Saad Hariri stayed in Lebanon and continued to operate as Sunni leader.”
Khashan also maintains that supporters of the tribunal have been disappointed that the court has thus far only issued indictments against some who allegedly carried out the attack, not those who ordered it. But the importance for the Lebanese of a trial of political assassinations – especially after the killing of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan – shouldn’t be underestimated.
“[The public] will be interested because it’s the first you time you have a trial for assassination of a political figure. There are still huge stakes,” says Mufti.
The stakes surrounding the once-contentious issue of Lebanon funding the court, however, are much lower than even a year ago. Over the summer, Prime Minister Najib Mikati saw to it that the payment was made through his office, bypassing the need for approval from parties in the Cabinet, most of which are hostile to the court.
Though some March 14 figures took Mikati to task for this method, describing it as “fraudulent” and “illegal,” it created few waves.
Analysts say that the need to keep the current government in power, coupled with the repercussions from the international community should the government not comply, mean the payment will be made this year with little fanfare.
“Even if the issue of payment comes up, which it will, Mikati is dedicated to honoring Lebanon’s commitment,” says Khashan. “Hezbollah made a big fuss [last year] but used no measures to try to obstruct it; they are interested in keeping him in place, though not in power.”
This is a departure from the fall of 2011, when the payment of nearly $33 million threatened to bring down Mikati’s government. Given this experience and the current events in the region, March 8 parties are once again unlikely to put up more than a rhetorical objection to the payment.
“I think that the March 8 coalition, after the withdrawal of [Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid] Jumblatt, is very vulnerable,” says AUB’s Hanafi. “March 8 has an interest in it going smoothly.”
Against the backdrop of the conflict in Syria, the cost of not complying with the United Nations Security Council resolution that established the court could be particularly costly for pro-Syria parties.
“I don’t expect Lebanon to renege on any of its international commitments, regardless of who is in power,” says Nadim Shehadi, associate fellow at Chatham House. He explained that if Lebanon doesn’t fulfill its obligations, it could be subject to sanctions because the tribunal was established by a Security Council resolution under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter.
What could shake the Lebanese political scene this year, however, is the approval of a long-awaited, potentially high-profile, fifth indictment.
“We are expecting another indictment during the year,” says Shehadi. “It’s been in the pipelines for a very long time.”
Last spring, it was again reported that the prosecution had sought the indictment of a fifth suspect, with rumors that the suspect is a politician who was allegedly involved in the attempted assassinations of Marwan Hamadeh and Elias Murr, and the killing of former Lebanese Communist Party leader George Hawi.
A new indictment could raise the political stakes of the STL, especially if the individual accused is, as rumored, a better-known figure than the four Hezbollah operatives indicted in 2011.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s pronouncement that the accused would not be found “in a year, two years, 30 years or 300 years” has so far held true. The court has said it has been satisfied with the efforts made by the Lebanese government to apprehend the suspects and even though the decision to hold the trial in absentia has been made, Lebanese authorities are still required to submit a monthly report on their continuing efforts.
“Right now government is getting away with technicalities by presenting its monthly report that satisfies the paper work,” says Shehadi. “It’s very possible that the next person indicted will have a higher profile and will not be able to be concealed.”
If that happens, Shehadi expects there would be political repercussions and that the government would not be able to avoid handing over the suspect.
“Lebanon will face a crisis of the compliance in the government – both political and legal crisis,” he says. “But in the end I don’t think Lebanon can get away without compliance.”
Another possible game changer for the STL in 2013 would be the conclusion – or a conclusive development – to the Syrian conflict. If the regime of President Bashar Assad is ousted, and Hezbollah loses a key ally, the party could be forced to give up its members to the court.
“For [the STL] to take off on a better foot [it] requires the conclusion to the conflict in Syria because it will change the balance of power in Lebanon,” says Khashan. “You don’t need a three-digit IQ to know that Hezbollah is running Lebanon.”


Israel and the Palestinians, A briefing
by Steven J. Rosen
December 17, 2012
http://www.meforum.org/3418/israel-palestinians
Steven J. Rosen, director of the Middle East Forum's Washington Project and former foreign-policy director at AIPAC, addressed the Middle East Forum on December 17, 2012, via conference call. Steven Rosen and MEF President Daniel Pipes recently met with Israeli officials to discuss strategy and policy in the wake of Israel's Operation Pillar of Defense in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) upgrade to a non-member observer state by the UN General Assembly. Mr. Rosen shared some insights and conclusions of these discussions.
Hamas in Gaza:
Israel's deterrence has been partially restored following the Gaza fighting. Israeli national security doctrine espouses a clear preference for adversaries that exercise strong central control over their constituents and can therefore be held accountable for hostile behavior emanating from these territories. This now appears to be the case with Hamas as evidenced inter alia by its swift enforcement of quiet after the ceasefire agreement.
Future Israeli efforts to prevent Hamas from rearming are likely to focus on enlisting Egypt, which has a vested interest to avert another conflagration in Gaza. Unlike President Mubarak who turned a blind eye to Sinai weapons smuggling in the hope of driving Israel to weaken Hamas for him, President Morsi cannot afford such an eventuality for the simple reason that Hamas is the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian offshoot.
The UN vote and the Palestinian Authority:
The PA's move was a transparent attempt to rally the international community behind an imposed, rather than negotiated, solution. By codifying the 1967 borders in a UN resolution the PA has effectively predetermined the outcome of future negotiations.
A more malevolent goal of the initiative is to enable the PA to bring criminal charges against Israeli military personnel and state officials at the International Criminal Court (ICC), a body comprised of judges from non-aligned countries largely hostile to the Jewish state. This option, however, has some clear limitations:
Israeli military operations are defensive and governed by the principle of proportionality;
The ICC is restricted by the principle of complementarity (i.e., complementary to national criminal jurisdictions), and given Israel's position as the most independent judiciary in the Middle East it has no need to act in lieu of its courts;
Israel could bring counter claims of war crimes against the PA and Hamas.
There is one possible ICC action of concern to Israel: litigation concerning "settlements." Were the ICC to rule that the Fourth Geneva Convention applied to the disputed territories, thus making them legally "occupied," this would enable the prosecution of current and past members of government involved in the establishment of settlements for war crimes.
The US, like Israel, has not recognized ICC jurisdiction because of the likelihood of politically motivated prosecutions. The ICC could just as easily be used to bring cases against U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as Predator drone counter-terrorism strikes. Yet although it is in America's self-interest to avoid submitting to ICC rulings, the Obama administration has softened Washington's opposition to the ICC to a policy of re-engagement.
Summary account by Marilyn Stern, Associate Fellow with the Middle East Forum.