LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 17, 18/2013

Bible Quotation for today/Jesus Speaks about His Suffering and Death

Mark 08/31-38: "Then Jesus began to teach his disciples: “The Son of Man must suffer much and be rejected by the elders, the chief priests, and the teachers of the Law. He will be put to death, but three days later he will rise to life.”  He made this very clear to them. So Peter took him aside and began to rebuke him.  But Jesus turned around, looked at his disciples, and rebuked Peter. “Get away from me, Satan,” he said. “Your thoughts don't come from God but from human nature!” Then Jesus called the crowd and his disciples to him. “If any of you want to come with me,” he told them, “you must forget yourself, carry your cross, and follow me.  For if you want to save your own life, you will lose it; but if you lose your life for me and for the gospel, you will save it.  Do you gain anything if you win the whole world but lose your life? Of course not! 37 There is nothing you can give to regain your life.  If you are ashamed of me and of my teaching in this godless and wicked day, then the Son of Man will be ashamed of you when he comes in the glory of his Father with the holy angels.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
 The Region: What Obama faces in Israel/By BARRY RUBIN/J.Post/February 17/13
If We Lose Syria We Lose Tehran/By Tariq Alhomayed/February 17/13
Hezbollah’s Asylum Offer/By Huda al Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/13
Israel's Cover-ups/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/13
The Syrian Jihad/By Mshari Al-Zaydi/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 17/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 17/13
2 Lebanese kidnapped in Nigeria: Minister
Two Hezbollah members, 12 rebels killed in Syria battles
Nasrallah: Saad Hariri’s speech insulted memory of his father
Three Hezbollah fighters, 12 Syrian rebels killed in clashes
Lebanon: Strike to go on if ‘unacceptable’ changes made to salary scale
Lebanon's Interior Minister Marwan Charbel. warns just 10 days left to agree electoral law
Future Movement says Hezbollah's resistance is against them
Lebanese PM, Mikati calls Bahrain PM after Aoun sparks row
Hariri discusses Lebanon situation with Plumbly
Yazigi leads first Mass since his appointment
Iran to keep supporting Lebanon despite killing
Berri's bloc to vote for Orthodox law in absence of consensus; MP
Lebanon, a tricky investment choice
US plan for UN to endorse Khamenei’s fatwa? Shock in Jerusalem
Iran will never shut down Fordow nuclear plant'
Iran confiscates Buddha statues from shops
Bahrain Dismantles 'Terror Cell' Linked to Iran
Saudi Arabia Working for Regional Stability— Maliki Aide
Bahrain Foils King Fahd Causeway Bomb Plot
Canada Condemns Latest Bombing in Pakistan

 Egypt's political rivals meet amid tension


Mediator Brahimi urges Syria/opposition talks at U.N.
UN envoy backs Syrian opposition's call for talks
Coptic Pope Denounces Civil Disobedience in Egypt

Faith Can Do Miracles, It did cure the leper
By: Elias Bejjani*
February 17/13
Christ, the Son of God,  is always ready and willing to help the sinners who seek forgiveness and repentance.  When we are remorseful and ask Him for exoneration, He never gives up on us no matter what we did or said.  As a loving Father, He always comes to our rescue when we get ourselves into trouble. He grants us all kinds of graces to safeguard us from falling into the treacherous traps of Satan's sinful temptations.
 Jesus the only Son Of God willingly endured all kinds of humiliation, pain, torture and accepted death on the cross for our sake and salvation. Through His crucifixion He absolved us from the original sin that our first parents Adam and Eve committed.  He showed us the righteous ways through which we can return with Him on the Day Of Judgment to His Father's Heavenly kingdom.
 Jesus made his call to the needy, persecuted, sick and sinners loud and clear: “Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest." (Matthew 11:28) The outcast leper believed in Jesus' call and came to Him asking for cleansing. Jesus took his hand, touched him with love, and responded to his request.
 The leper knew deep in his heart that Jesus could cure him from his devastating and shameful leprosy if He is willing to do so. Against all odds he took the hard and right decision to seek out at once Jesus' mercy.
 With solid faith, courage and perseverance the leper approached Jesus and begging him, kneeling down to him, and says to him, "If you want to, you can make me clean."  When he had said this, immediately the leprosy departed from him and he was made clean. Jesus extended His hand and touched him with great passion and strictly warned him, "See you say nothing to anybody, but go show yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing the things which Moses commanded, for a testimony to them."  But the leper went out, began to proclaim it much, and spread about the matter so that Jesus could no more openly enter into a city, but was outside in desert places: and they came to him from everywhere. (Mark 1/40-45)
We sinners, all of us, ought to learn from the leper's great example of faith. Like him we need to endeavour for sincere repentance with heartfelt prayer, begging Almighty God for absolution from all our sins. Honest pursuit of salvation and repentance requires a great deal of humility, honesty, love, transparency and perseverance. Like the leper we must trust in God's mercy and unwaveringly go after it.
The faithful leper sensed deep inside his conscience that Jesus could cleanse him, but was not sure if he is worth Jesus' attention and mercy.
 His faith and great trust in God made him break all the laws that prohibited a leper from getting close to or touching anybody. He tossed himself at Jesus' feet scared and trembling. With great love, confidence, meekness and passion he spoke to Jesus saying  “If you will, you can make me clean.” He did not mean if you are in a good mood at present. He meant, rather, if it is not out of line with the purpose of God, and if it is not violating some cosmic program God is working out then you can make me clean.
 Lepers in the old days were outcasts forced to live in isolation far away from the public. They were not allowed to continue living in their own communities or families. They were looked upon as dead people and forbidden from even entering the synagogues to worship. They were harshly persecuted, deprived of all their basic rights and dealt with as sinners. But in God's eyes these sick lepers were His children whom He dearly loves and cares for.  “Blessed are you when people reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for my sake. Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven. For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you". Matthew(5/11-12)
 The leper trusted in God's parenthood and did not have any doubts about Jesus' divinity and power to cleanse and cure him. Without any hesitation, and with a pure heart, he put himself with full submission into Jesus' hands and will knowing that God our Father cannot but have mercy on His children. "Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God". (Matthew5/8)
 We need to take the leper as a role model in our lives. His strong and steadfast faith cured him and put him back into society. We are to know God can do whatever He wants and to trust Him. If He is willing, He will. We just have to trust in the goodness and mercy of God and keep on praying and asking, and He surely will respond in His own way even though many times our limited minds can not grasp His help.
Praying on regular basis as Jesus instructed us to is an extremely comforting ritual: "Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe that you have received them, and you shall have them. Whenever you stand praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father, who is in heaven, may also forgive you your transgressions. But if you do not forgive, neither will your Father in heaven forgive your transgressions" (Mark 11/24-26)
 The leper's faith teaches us that God always listens and always responds to our requests when we approach Him with pure hearts, trust, confidence and humbleness. Almighty God is a loving father who loves us all , we His children and all what we have to do to get His attention is to make our requests through praying. "Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened". (Matthew 7/8 -9)

Three Hezbollah fighters, 12 Syrian rebels killed in clashes
February 18, 2013/By Rakan al-Fakih/The Daily Star
HERMEL, Lebanon: Three Hezbollah fighters and 12 Syrian rebels were killed in fierce battles near Syria’s border with Lebanon, security sources said Sunday, as the Syrian opposition accused the party of “military intervention” in the neighboring country’s bloody conflict.
The fighting, the worst near the border with Lebanon since the uprising erupted in Syria nearly two years ago, underlined Hezbollah’s increasing involvement in the Syrian crisis. It also renewed fears of the Syrian conflict between government troops and opposition groups fighting to topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad spilling over into Lebanon.
“In the past two days, 12 Syrian rebels were killed and 30 wounded, while three Hezbollah members were killed and 14 others were wounded in battles,” a Lebanese security source told The Daily Star.
Speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation, the source said the fighting between Hezbollah and rebels in the Syrian region of Qusayr, where many Lebanese Shiites reside, has intensified since Friday.Qusayr is located just across the northeastern border with Lebanon.
Although there are an estimated 30,000 Lebanese Shiites who live in a cluster of 20 Syrian villages near the border with Lebanon, many have fled to the eastern cities of Hermel and Baalbek and Beirut because of the violence.
During the battles that raged with Syrian rebels over the weekend in Qusayr, Hezbollah fighters managed to impose their control on some territory and houses vacated by residents of Shiite villages, the source said. The homes had been vacated during confrontations between the two sides several months ago, the source added. The source added that two artillery shells fired by Syrian rebels landed inside the Lebanese town of Qasr on the border with Syria, causing no casualties. The first shell did not explode, while the other one hit the wall of Ali Hussein Zuaiter’s house.
A source close to Hezbollah in Hermel confirmed the clashes with Syrian rebels in Shiite villages. He said that Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah had previously referred to these clashes when he said that Lebanese Shiite residents were defending themselves against attacks by Syrian rebels.
Blaming the Syrian opposition for the outbreak of fighting, the source said that the villages which Hezbollah members are defending are not located in the center of Syria, but are near the border and their residents are Lebanese. But Hadi al-Abdallah of the Syrian Revolution General Commission said fighting broke out Saturday after Hezbollah fighters, who control eight Syrian border villages, tried to expand their sphere by moving into three adjacent Sunni villages that were in the hands of the rebel Free Syrian Army.
“The Hezbollah force moved on foot and was supported by multiple rocket launchers. The Free Syrian Army had to call in two tanks that had been captured from the Assad army to repel the attack,” Abdallah told Reuters.
Sgt. Muhieddine al-Zein, the head of the rebel Military Council in Qusayr, said the fighting erupted when a group of Hezbollah fighters tried to sneak into rebel-held areas. The rebels engaged with them and killed about 20 Hezbollah fighters, he told The Daily Star by telephone from Qusayr.
Zein said there are 13 brigades operating in Qusayr, adding that the Hezbollah fighters were recognized through the party’s flag and Syria’s flag. Zein claimed that Hezbollah fighters have been there since the beginning of the conflict.Zein said eight FSA members were killed, along with a woman and her two small children in the clashes with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has repeatedly denied that it is sending members to fight alongside government forces against the opposition.
However, the party occasionally announces the death of one of its fighters killed “carrying out his jihadist duty,” but without clarification. In October 2012, Nasrallah acknowledged that party members had fought Syrian rebels but said they were acting as individuals and not under the party’s direction.
Nasrallah said that a Hezbollah commander by the name of Ali Hussein Nassif was killed in a Syrian border area inhabited by Lebanese that was frequently the target of bombardment by Syrian rebels.
Meanwhile, the main bloc of the Syrian opposition Sunday accused Hezbollah of “militarily intervention” in Syria, and called it a danger to regional peace and security. The Syrian National Council said Hezbollah members Saturday attacked “three Syrian villages in the Qusayr region near the Lebanese border” with full knowledge of the regular Syrian army.
The operation in Homs province led not only to “civilian casualties and the exodus of hundreds of people,” but also “stoked sectarian tensions” in the area, the SNC said in a statement. The SNC said Hezbollah was employing “heavy weapons openly and under the auspices of the Syrian regime army.” – Additional reporting by Lauren Williams and AFP

Lebanon's Interior Minister Marwan Charbel. warns just 10 days left to agree electoral law
February 18, 2013/By Wassim Mroueh/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Parliament’s joint committees will convene Monday to discuss an electoral law for June’s parliamentary elections after Interior Minister Marwan Charbel warned it would not be possible to hold polls on time if rival groups failed to agree on a voting system within 10 days.
The session comes after a parliamentary subcommittee failed following weeks of talks to reach consensus among rival parties on an electoral law. Monday’s session will be attended by Future Movement MPs although the Cabinet will be represented.
The movement has boycotted all sessions of Parliament in which the Cabinet is represented following last October’s assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, the head of the Internal Security Forces Information Branch.
“We will participate [in the session],” Future Movement MP Ahmad Fatfat told The Daily Star. “We studied the situation and realized that there will be an attempt to knock the National Pact and the Constitution with the Orthodox proposal. This should be confronted by us and our allies,” he explained.
Speaker Nabih Berri called on joint committees to discuss the electoral law in two sessions per day for four consecutive days starting Monday.
As disagreements continued among political blocs, Charbel warned during an interview with a local TV station that it would not be possible to hold elections on time if rival groups do not agree on a draft law within 10 days.Sources from Berri’s parliamentary bloc said discussions during the first session would focus on the Orthodox proposal, but added that this would not prevent talks about the hybrid draft law from proceeding simultaneously.
Another source close to Berri said that during the session, MPs would hear the subcommittee’s report, which will be read by chair MP Robert Ghanem.
“They will then start discussions based on the common points reached during subcommittee meetings,” the source said. “There are many laws up for discussion, including the Orthodox proposal,” he said.
FPM MP Alain Aoun told The Daily Star that he expected the joint committees to approve the Orthodox proposal “because it is simple and does not require lengthy discussions.”
“We are waiting for Speaker Berri to assign a Parliament session to put the Orthodox proposal to a vote.”
The Orthodox plan allows for each sect to elect its own MPs under a proportional representation system with the entirety of Lebanon as a single district. It is supported by the FPM, the Marada Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb party, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, but strongly opposed by the Future Movement, Progressive Socialist Party, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and President Michel Sleiman, who argue that it enhances sectarian divisions in the country. Christian groups believe the Orthodox proposal allows Christians to elect all 64 of their MPs.If approved by the joint committees, the draft law still requires the endorsement of Parliament to be enforced.
But Sleiman has said on numerous occasions that he would challenge the Orthodox proposal before the Constitutional Council if it becomes a law because it contradicts the National Pact and Constitution.
Sources from Baabda Palace said Sleiman informed relevant parties over the weekend that the endorsement of the Orthodox proposal would be unacceptable.
Sleiman said that Lebanon was in need of an electoral law that meets the aspirations of the Lebanese and respects the Constitution. “I strictly abide by the Constitution and I oppose anything that widens the sectarian divide in the country,” Sleiman was quoted as saying, according to sources.
But Aoun told a local radio station over the weekend that he would challenge any electoral law Parliament endorses if it was not the Orthodox proposal, explaining that the plan would enhance coexistence and preserve the rights of all sects.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reiterated Saturday that his party would vote for the Orthodox proposal, saying Hezbollah was convinced that it provided fair representation.
MP Yassin Jaber, from Berri’s bloc, held a similar stance. “If no deal is reached on a new electoral law, then our stance, which is known, is that we will support the Orthodox plan,” he said in remarks published by a local newspaper Sunday.
Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh said his group would vote for the Orthodox proposal as well. “We will vote for the Orthodox proposal in Parliament. It is the best and provides fair representation,” he added after receiving Lebanese Democratic Party leader Talal Arslan at his Bneshaai residence.
Franjieh argued that the March 14 coalition, particularly the Future Movement, engage in vote-buying schemes during elections. “We seek through this electoral law to reduce the effects of money on us,” he said.
For its part, Future argues that proportional representation could not be applied in light of the fact that Hezbollah possesses arms.
The subcommittee, which includes MPs from the March 8 and the March 14 alliances, held a marathon final session Saturday, but failed to reach an agreement over a law, the task which was assigned to it by joint committees.
The subcommittee discussed five hybrid proposals presented by the Future Movement, Amal, Kataeb, LF and the PSP along with other draft laws.
Fatfat, a member of the subcommittee, said there were common points between the hybrid draft laws of Amal and the LF on one side and the Future Movement and Kataeb on the other.
“The disruption of talks was caused by Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement [because they] made no proposals,” he said.
Mikati discussed the electoral law with Berri during a visit Sunday. In separate remarks, Mikati said he was against the 1960 law, which governed the 2009 polls. “[But] my constitutional and legal responsibility obliges me to call for elections, even under the 1960 law, if an agreement is not reached over an electoral law before March 11,” he told an interview by a Jordanian TV station.
Separately, PSP leader Walid Jumblatt returned from a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia where he met with Saudi officials. PSP’s media official could not be reached by The Daily Star.
For his part, Arslan met with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus Sunday. – Additional reporting by Antoine Ghattas Saab and Hasan Lakkis

Lebanese PM, Mikati calls Bahrain PM after Aoun sparks row
February 18, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Prime Minister Najib Mikati phoned his Bahraini counterpart Sunday evening to express Lebanon’s respect for Bahrain’s sovereignty after critical remarks by Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun provoked an angry response from the Gulf kingdom. Amid the political fallout over Aoun’s remarks, Bahraini Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah alKhalifa said his country had arrested eight nationals in a militant cell with links to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.
The Bahrain News Agency quoted the minister as saying the eight had received training in weapons and explosives and also obtained funding from outside Bahrain.
During his phone conversation with Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman, Mikati underscored that Lebanon would not interfere in Bahrain’s internal affairs.
Mikati said earlier that Aoun’s remarks against the Bahraini government did not reflect Lebanon’s official stance and were the lawmaker’s personal opinion.
“I considered this [Aoun’s remarks] to be a personal opinion. Even MP Michel Aoun said that this is his personal opinion and not the government’s,” Mikati told reporters after talks with Speaker Nabih Berri during which the issue was discussed.
Mikati’s response came after Aoun’s remarks prompted Bahrain to summon Lebanon’s charge d’affaires and request clarification.
“The government, in line with the Baabda Declaration, adheres to a neutral position when it comes to regional conflicts and we respect, admire and have excellent ties with all Gulf Arab countries,” Mikati said.
Last June Lebanon adopted the Baabda Declaration, which stipulates that the country distance itself from regional and international conflicts to avert the negative repercussions of regional tensions and crises.
Aoun, addressing an Iranian TV station last week, criticized the international community and the Arab League for its lack of support to Bahraini protesters, calling their predicament an “injustice.”
According to the Bahrain News Agency, the Bahraini Foreign Ministry summoned Ibrahim Assaf, Lebanon’s charge d’affaires, to protest Aoun’s comments, which the Gulf state considers “interference in its internal affairs and deems as an unacceptable infringement of its sovereignty.”
The BNA said the undersecretary of the Foreign Affairs Ministry, Hamad al-Amer, sent Assaf an official complaint condemning Aoun’s remarks.
In his letter, Amer called for “taking immediate measures in these circumstances in the framework of respecting sisterly ties between the two countries and committing to the principles of noninterference” in order to preserve efforts to safeguard the security and stability of Arab countries.
Aoun responded Saturday, saying as an MP he had the right to state his opinion, adding that his position did not reflect that of the government.
“We in Lebanon have the freedom to express our opinion, particularly as MPs. The government has nothing to do with the issue,” Aoun told a local radio station over the weekend.
“We simply state our free opinion; our role is not to defend anyone ... The Universal Declaration of Human Rights allows us to give our opinion in such a manner,” he said.According to Mikati’s office, Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour contacted the prime minister Saturday and informed him that a number of Gulf countries were protesting the comments, which they consider interference in their internal affairs.
“The Lebanese government respects the sovereignty of other countries, particularly sisterly Arab states and their privacy, and does not interfere in their internal affairs,” Mikati’s office quoted him as saying.
Bahraini officials have taken issue with remarks made by Lebanese political figures in the past. In the summer of 2011, two Bahraini airlines suspended flights between Manama and Beirut for two months after Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah criticized the monarchy for bringing in troops from neighboring Gulf countries to help put down Shiite-led protests there.
News of the arrests in Bahrain came after two people were killed Thursday on the second anniversary of the unrest in the country.
“Recent media reports have revealed the discovery of a Bahraini terrorist cell with links to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon,” the BNA quoted Sheikh Rashid as saying in a statement.“The Interior Ministry confirms these reports and also confirms the arrest of eight Bahrainis on terror-related charges.”

2 Lebanese kidnapped in Nigeria: Minister
February 17, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Two Lebanese workers were kidnapped by gunmen in Nigeria Sunday, Foreign Affairs Minister Adnan Mansour said. The Associated Press reported four had been taken.
They were among a group of foreign workers who were snatched at a Lebanese-owned construction company “Setraco Nigeria” which is a subsidiary of Setraco International Holding group.
According to the National News Agency, the Lebanese Embassy in Nigeria informed the minster that two Lebanese identified as Imad al-Indari and Carlos Abu Aziz. Mansour said that he gave instructions to the embassy there to make the necessary contacts swiftly to secure the release of the Lebanese.
According to AP, gunmen attacked a camp for a construction company in the rural northern Nigerian area o Jama’re, killing a guard and kidnapping seven foreign workers from Britain, Greece, Italy and Lebanon.
Bauchi state police spokesman Hassan Muhammed told the agency that the gunmen first attacked a local prison, burning two police trucks.
"The gunmen came with explosives, which they used to break some areas," Muhammed said.
Adamu Aliyu, the chairman of the local government area that encompasses Jama're, identified those kidnapped as one British citizen, one Greek, one Italian and four Lebanese.
There are roughly 20,000 Lebanese living in Nigeria who some analysts have said could be sliding into a large-scale civil war.
In May, gunmen in Kaduna state shot and killed a Lebanese and a Nigerian construction worker, while kidnapping another Lebanese employee. - With AP

Two Hezbollah members, 12 rebels killed in Syria battles
February 17, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Two Hezbollah members were killed during battles with rebels in Syria which also left 12 members of the opposition dead, a Lebanese security source told The Daily Star Sunday.
“In the past two days, 12 Syrian rebels were killed and 30 wounded while two Hezbollah members were killed and 17 of them were wounded,” the source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.
He added that the fighting between Hezbollah and rebels in the Syrian town of Qusayr where a majority of Lebanese Shiites reside intensified since Friday.
Qusayr is located 5 kilometers from the northeastern border with Lebanon. Although there are an estimated 30,000 Lebanese in the Syrian area, many have fled to the eastern town of Baalbek and Beirut because of the violence.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s spokesperson Ibrahim Musawi said he has no official information with regards to the media reports.
“I don’t have official information about the incident ... but we have said that there are Lebanese fighting in their villages [in Syria],” Musawi told The Daily Star.
Hezbollah has repeatedly denied that the group is sending members to fight alongside government forces against the opposition.
Last year, the head of the resistance group, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, said that a Hezbollah commander by the name of Ali Hussein Nassif was killed in a Syrian border area inhabited by Lebanese that was frequently the target of bombardment by Syrian rebels. “Abu Abbas [Nassif] is a commander of the group’s infantry unit in the Bekaa ... he is then responsible for the Hezbollah members in that area and because these border towns continue until this day to be attacked [by Syrian rebels], martyrs have fallen and Abu Abbas was one of them,” Nasrallah said during a televised speech in October of 2012.
He added that the Syrian town, which he did not identify, was among 23 others with mainly Lebanese populations that had armed themselves to fend off attacks by the Free Syrian Army.
However, Nasrallah was quick to note that residents were acting alone and without any involvement from Hezbollah.

 Sayyed Nasrallah: Hezbollah Fully Equipped, Won’t Tolerate Israeli Attack
Batoul Wehbe /Manar Web site
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said the resistance in Lebanon is fully equipped and will not tolerate any attack that might take place against Lebanon.
In a televised speech during a ceremony in commemoration of Hezbollah’s martyred leaders, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Zionist entity and its allies that the Islamic resistance in Lebanon will not tolerate any attack against the Lebanese territory, assuring that Hezbollah is fully-equipped “and everything we need is found in Lebanon, we don't need to transfer it neither from Syria, nor Iran.”
His eminence considered that the Israeli knows that all we are saying is serious and therefore is mobilizing all its capabilities, and pointed out that when the Israeli enemy wants to attack Lebanon, it does not look for any excuse but invents one.
“30 years on, the Resistance project stands on a solid ground of equations, achievements and victories, not just dreams ought to be true. For 30 years the resistance was one of the strongest realities that changed regional strategies,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.
In the school of martyred leaders, Sayyed Nasrallah said, the priority was the resistance because the correct diagnosis of the biggest risk points to the Israeli enemy and the Zionist project. “When we think deeply on Islamic and national levels we find that the most danger threatening the nation is "Israel", and the only logic choice is the popular resistance.”
The S.G. said Martyr Sheikh Ragheb Harb was a witness to the establishment of the resistance, leadership and decisive options, Sayyed Abbas Mousawi witnessed the stage of stability, focus and consistency in the resistance, and the martyr leader Hajj Imad Mughniyeh was a witness on the stage of quantitative and qualitative evolution as well as the stage of achievements and victories. “We chose this year’s logo ‘On the Road to Palestine’ because the forgotten Palestinian cause is our main cause and our martyrs had fallen on the road to Palestine.”
Sayyed Nasrallah swore by the blood of the martyred leaders that their sons, companions and students are stronger in their resistance and warned the Israeli enemy that the previous revenge, he pledged after the martyrdom of Moghnieh, ‘is still open.’
Concerning Al-Mustaqbal Party leader MP Saad Hariri's speech during the commemoration of his late father PM Rafik Hariri's assassination, Sayyed Nasrallah said that reducing the number of Shiite ministers was aimed at giving a chance to a reputable historical family in Lebanon, the Karami family, to take part in the political life and wasn’t a bribe as the MP had claimed.
“We reject neutralizing Hezbollah’s weapons and the abolition of the International Tribunal, in return of putting the country under the control of a specific person, this is bribery. We do not want to maintain the arms rather we want to maintain the resistance, and if the weapons of the resistance weren't to confront Israel and defend Lebanon it wouldn't be worth the sacrifice,” his eminence said.
Sayyed Nasrallah said Saad Hariri’s speech is an insult to his father's history. “In the past, we met you martyred father and discussed about the resistance and its weapons, and we have already told him that our priority is the resistance and everything other than it is debatable. He told us: I am with you and I'm with the keeping of the resistance and its weapons until peace is established.” “Did your father take a bribery from us?” the S.G wondered.
Sayyed Nasrallah told Hariri that through the Turkish-Qatari initiative “you offered us to keep our arms in return for backing you for premiership ad we didn’t accept you to be the PM out of national interests. We want a Lebanese PM, a premier who resides in Lebanon!”
“When we deal with (Prime Minister Najib) Miqati's government, we are sure that it will not stab the resistance in its back. Miqati and his cabinet will remain faithful to the resistance,” his eminence indicated.
On relations with PSP leader MP Walid Jumblatt, Sayyed Nasrallah said Jumblatt “has a clear stance towards the resistance but we are divided on the Syrian crisis, and we will not encourage tension in the country because of our different views on this topic.” He added that the “split over the situation in Syria doesn't mean that we want the turmoil to spill over into Lebanon.”
Hezbollah’s secretary general Nasrallah hailed the Orthodox Gathering proposal, saying: “We are convinced that it achieves better representation even if we had a priority to make Lebanon one district based on proportional representation. We agreed on the Orthodox deaf-law and we will vote if it was proposed at the parliament.”
Concerning the Bulgarian accusation for Hezbollah as being behind Burgas airport attack where Five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian driver were killed last year, Sayyed Nasrallah rejected the accusations as baseless.
“[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu immediately blamed Hezbollah of being behind the attack... But Israel doesn’t wage a war as a reaction,” H.E said in his speech. In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah denounced some parts who believed this claim and based their measures on it, including Lebanese parts.
The S.G. offered condolences over the martyrdom of the head of the Iranian Committee for Reconstruction of Lebanon, engineer Hussam Khoshnevis while he was on his way to Lebanon from Syria.
He also saluted the Bahraini revolution, expressing hope that the national dialogue will achieve people’s aspirations.

Future Movement says Hezbollah's resistance is against them
The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah’s fight against the Jewish state has turned into a resistance against the Future Movement, the party said Sunday in response to Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s recent remarks about its leader Saad Hariri.
“What is most important [in his speech] is that he honestly confessed that his resistance against the Israeli enemy has turned into a resistance against the Future Movement, as if the Future Movement has become the enemy,” the party said in a statement.
The Future Movement also fired back at Nasrallah for saying that slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri supported the resistance’s arsenal, unlike his son, Saad.
“Using the martyred former premier Rafik Hariri as a testament to historical facts is not right in this time or place ... Doesn't the case of the martyrdom of premier Rafik Hariri deserve from you, Sayyed Hasan, the least of appreciation, help or for you to stand by the majority of Lebanese in order for your to concede and hand over the four suspects who are all from Hezbollah, instead of boasting about their protection,” the statement said.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon has indicted for members of Hezbollah in the 2005 assassination of Hariri. The head of the resistance group has refused to hand over the suspects.
In his televised speech Saturday, Nasrallah said the late Hariri had voiced his full support for the resistance group retaining its arsenal during a conversation between the late statesman and the Hezbollah leader.
“Months before Feb. 14 [the day Rafik Hariri was assassinated] ... he told me he supported the presence of the resistance and its arms and not only until the liberation of the Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shuba hills or the return of prisoners from Israeli prisons but more than that until a comprehensive and fair peace is signed [with Israel],” Nasrallah said
Minutes following the end of Nasrallah’s speech Saturday, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said the Hezbollah chief had no right to speak of his father’s past.
“The protector of the suspects involved in the killing of the martyr Rafik Hariri does not have the right to talk about the prime minister's history,” he wrote on his Twitter feed.
Nasrallah accused Saad Hariri of hypocrisy for urging the resistance group to abandon its weapons.
He alleged that Hariri had offered to withdraw his calls for the resistance group to disarm if it agreed to keep him in power following the fall of his National Unity Cabinet in 2011.
The Hezbollah chief was referring to the 2011 initiative by Qatar and Turkey to resolve the government crisis after March 8 ministers resigned from Hariri's Cabinet, forcing its collapse.
Nasrallah added that in the ministerial statement drafted for Hariri's Cabinet in 2010, the tripartite formula of the "Army, the people, and the resistance," was mentioned.
"In previous governments the ministerial statement mentioned the formula of the Army, the people and the resistance." and back then, his [Hariri's] allies were mad about it. Did you take a bribe then? Or what?” Nasrallah asked.
Addressing Hariri, who has repeatedly called for Hezbollah to disarm, Nasrallah said: "You are the one [who offered] to put aside the arms issue so that you could remain prime minister but we refused.”
The formula has been rejected by Hariri and his allies in the March 14 coalition while Hezbollah maintains that it is the optimal means to protect Lebanon from Israeli aggression.
Future Movement said Sunday Nasrallah’s refusal to have Hariri as a prime minister in 2011 was a direct order from Syrian President Bashar Assad.
“As for Nasrallah saying that he refused to have Hariri back in power ... [his decision] was based on a direct order from Bashar Assad which Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah executed in Beirut along with the formation of a new Cabinet that still functions under his [Assad’s] supervision,” the party said.
“It seems that Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah was very upset by the national initiative proposed by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the point that he jumped over all the facts that were mentioned in the speech by the head of the Future Movement on the eighth anniversary of the martyrdom of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri [on Feb. 14] and chose bits of the speech that he considered valid material for a response and an attempt to distort many historical and facts,” it added.
Hariri has proposed a national initiative to reform the political system by creating a senate and approving a new electoral law based on a majority system.

Bahrain Dismantles 'Terror Cell' Linked to Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat
MANAMA, Bahrain, Asharq Al-Awsat—Bahrain has dismantled an alleged terrorist cell, according to a statement by the Gulf kingdom’s interior ministry.
The statement attributed to Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah al-Khalifa affirmed that recent media reports of a discovery of a Bahraini terrorist cell with links to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon were true, and that the interior ministry “also confirms the arrest of eight Bahrainis on terror-related charges. These arrests were made with the cooperation of a fellow brotherly country. The eight had received training in weapons and explosives and also obtained funding from outside Bahrain. Further details will be released upon completion of the investigation.”
In his televised statement Al-Khalifa also addressed the spike in violence that took place in the last couple of days, revealing that it has resulted in “the death of two people and injuring of two others as well as 75 police officers, and considerable damage to public as well as private property. “
The statement also revealed what it described as the “dramatic change in the range of weapons used includes rebar spears, Molotov cocktail bombs, and live ammunition against police. Moreover, 19 suspicious objects have been discovered across the country, including a 2-kg bomb that was defused by authorities” the statement added.
A Bahraini security source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, revealed that the bomb was made of highly explosive materials adding that the materials used in this bomb, and the place where it was discovered, indicates a huge leap forward in terms of the terrorist operations normally seen in Bahrain.
The explosive was placed inside an aluminum cooking pot along with nails and other shrapnel in order to cause the greatest damage and loss of life.
The Bahraini security source linked this foiled terrorist plot with the second anniversary of the 2011 Bahrain unrest and the deployment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Peninsula Shield to restore order to the country. The source said, “The terrorist cell sought to blow up the King Fahd Causeway as this was the way in which the Peninsula Shield troops entered Bahrain.”
He added, “They (the terrorists) view the Peninsula Shield troops that remain stationed in the country as an occupying force from Saudi Arabia and the King Fahd Causeway as a symbol of Saudi hegemony.”
The King Fahd Causeway is made up of 5 bridges, totaling 25 km, connecting Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There is a Border Station located along the Causeway which includes a number of government directorates and authorities, as well as two mosques, and restaurants and services.
Bahrain's Sunni monarchy has frequently accused Shiite power Iran and its allies of aiding the uprising by Bahrain's majority Shiites. Iran denies the charges.
The latest unrest comes against the background of a fresh round of a national dialogue between opposition groups and the government.
Bahraini courts have previously convicted suspects for alleged coup plotting and links to Iran and Hezbollah. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet.
The Bahraini interior minister also called on all the citizens of Bahrain “to denounce violence and to abstain from participating in criminal activities”.
“The Public Security Force is committed to maintaining order in the face of any and all provocations or attacks. We seek the support of all good citizens of Bahrain” the statement added.

Nasrallah: Saad Hariri’s speech insulted memory of his father
Now Lebanon/Hezbollah’s leader on Saturday launched a broadside against his March 14 foe Future Movement leader MP Saad Hariri’s latest speech and warned Israel against launching an attack on Lebanon following Bulgaria’s accusations that the Shiite party perpetrated the July 2012 attack that killed five Israelis.
“It is my moral duty to address [Saad Hariri’s address] because I felt it was an insult to Rafiq Hariri,” Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech broadcast to a Hezbollah commemoration for top party figures assassinated in past years.
Saad Hariri on Thursday slammed Hezbollah, saying its weapons were the “mother of all problems” in Lebanon and that the party was politically bribing PM Najib Miqati.
Nasrallah rejected the accusations and accused Saad Hariri of being the one to offer a political bribe.
“After [Hariri’s] cabinet was toppled [in January 2011], the Future Movement agreed to a Turkish-Qatari initiative… for us to re-elect Hariri as prime minister in exchange for us keeping our arms,” he alleged.
“Who bribed who at the time?”
“We want a prime minister who lives in Lebanon and has time for the country and its issues,” Nasrallah said in reference to Hariri’s absence from Lebanon since April 2011 for security reasons.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon probing the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri accused four Hezbollah members of the crime, a charge the Shiite party denies.
Nasrallah also discussed the political fallout following Bulgaria’s accusation earlier in the month that Hezbollah members had perpatrated the 2012 terror attack in the country. However, the Hezbollah chief said that he would not comment on the charge itself.
Nasrallah said that party opponents had jumped on the accusations as pretext to pressure the EU to designate the party as a terror organization with an aim to topple the Lebanese government.
After Bulgaria’s February 6 charge, the White House and Israel called on Europe to take action against Hezbollah.
Amid these calls for the terror designation, Nasrallah added that “the worst thing that was said was that Israel was going to start a war against Lebanon because of this accusation.”
However, the Hezbollah chief cast doubts Israel would strike the Shiite party over the Bulgaria terror attack.
“We must understand Israel. It is an oversimplification to say that due to a certain incident, Israel will go to war,” he said.
“During these past two years there were many operations against Israeli targets in India, Georgia, Thailand, of which Hezbollah was accused, and there was no war.”
Nevertheless, Nasrallah warned Israel against launching a military campaign against Lebanon, saying the “Resistance in Lebanon will not keep quiet over any violation that occurs on Lebanese territory.”
“I tell all these people today, the Resistance today in Lebanon is fully equipped without the need of Iran or Syria’s help.”
Tension in the region has heightened in recent weeks after Israel struck a military site in Syria on January 30. The Bashar al-Assad regime said the attack hit a research facility outside Damascus, while media reports said the Jewish State had bombed a convoy headed for Lebanon.
Hezbollah supporters gather Saturday in Dahiyeh for the party's martyr leaders ceremony.It is my moral duty to address Saad Hariri’s address.
 

Lebanon/Strike to go on if ‘unacceptable’ changes made to salary scale
February 18, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A union of public workers said Sunday it would go ahead with an open-ended strike commencing Tuesday after the government amended a previously agreed draft salary scale in an attempt to assuage private sector concerns over its impact. “There is no way that we will give up on any of our demands. We will not accept any discounts, payment in installments, or excluding pensioners,” Hanna Gharib, head of the Union Coordination Committee, told The Daily Star.“They [the government] can secure the funds needed for the salary scale by cracking down on corruption such as tax evasion and stolen public seaside properties as well as squandering by Lebanese officials,” he said.
Gharib said the strike would probably take place as previously planned given signs that the government introduced “unacceptable” adjustments to lower the cost of the wage increases.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati had agreed Friday to move the wage hike issue to the Parliament Monday in an attempt to avert the strike.
Mikati defended his government’s decision to introduce amendments to the draft before sending it to Parliament, arguing that ministers had changed the proposal so that it would not negatively impact the private sector.
Despite these amendments, the Economic Committees, a leading private sector group that lobbied hard against the raises, said Saturday it would boycott future dialogue with the Cabinet and labor unions to protest the government’s action. The private sector has warned against approving the new salary scale, especially the plan to raise taxes on the sector to fund the wage hike for civil servants, which would cost $1.2 billion annually.
The Economic Committees argued that the damage the private sector would incur should the wage hike be approved far outweighed the economic cost of strikes: “It will deal a blow to the national economy either deliberately or via negligence.”The private sector has said that raising taxes under the prevailing economic conditions in the country would further exacerbate the situation and deal a final blow to all sectors.
Hours after representatives of the private sector announced they would boycott the tripartite dialogue, Mikati released a statement slamming the group’s move and saying his government had amended the draft law to avoid imposing new taxes.“What surprised me the most was their announcement to boycott upcoming dialogue sessions in a hasty and reactionary manner before studying the amendments we have introduced to the draft salary scale law,” Mikati told visitors at the Grand Serail.“The amended version does not include any additional taxes on the consumer or the investor.
“Contrary to what was mentioned in the statement by the Economic Committees, the proposal actually includes wide reform measures at the administrative level and amendments to reduce the financial burden,” the prime minister said.No further details were available on what changes the Cabinet made to the draft law before agreeing to submit it to Parliament.

Hezbollah’s Asylum Offer
By Huda al Husseini
Asharq Al-Awsat
With Syria's accelerating and inevitable collapse, Iran's growing role becomes more and more prominent as it tries to win on all the fronts and draw attention away from its internal problems. Conflicts within Iran are growing as the date of the presidential elections nears. The radical conservatives are divided. The faction protected by Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is "fighting" against what it fears will happen, namely, the interference of the faction supporting President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in the presidential elections and its attempts to influence the outcome. The immediate enemy in Iran is no longer the "Green Movement"; the leaders of this movement are in jail and their children were recently hunted down and imprisoned. Despite the "signs of strength" that the regime is showing in its reactions to world events, this challenge cannot conceal the weakness and degeneration of the regime's structure itself as one side (the conservatives) confront one another. In addition to adherence to the nuclear program and the manipulation of the West's reluctance to take a unified stand as it fears the Persian unknown - after it faced the "Arab unknown" and its shock - these are united regarding Syria's fate whether President Bashar al-Assad stays or whether his regime falls turning Syria into warring entities. Dr Paul Salim, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center [in Beirut, Lebanon], says: "It will be hard to restore Syria as a united nation" as reported in The Washington Post of 10 February. That is why Iran is exploiting the Syrian collapse by trying to hit several birds with one stone. On one hand, it is backing the regime's regular army and popular army and it is preparing to back an Alawite entity made up of the Syrian provinces adjacent to Lebanese borders. This region includes the big port in Latakia that continues to be used to provide supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However, at the same time, Iran is working to place all of Lebanon under its control because if the Syrian regime stays, its position will not be healthy or secure, and if it fails and Iran is unable to help the Alawites establish their state, Iran will still have a vital foothold in the Mediterranean. That is why, according to reliable sources, Hezbollah began last month to propose to Alawite officers in the Syrian army to seek refuge in Lebanon. On one hand, the aim of this offer was to calm down the growing concern of many Alawite officers that they may be tried as war criminals or be the targets of bloody liquidation after they have become convinced that the regime will fall sooner or later. On the other hand, the offer aims at reinforcing the ranks of Hezbollah’s fighters with veteran Alawite officers with high combat experience. These moves are led from behind the scenes by one of the security aides of Hezbollah’s secretary general through party elements that support the regime's confrontation of the armed opposition inside Syria. Last month, Hezbollah’s secretary general asked his security assistant to inform party elements working with and coordinating with Syrian officers and offer them a "package deal" from which the two sides would gain on the day that Assad falls. The offer was made following signals and messages that Hezbollah officials received from their military elements in the field in which they hint at the growing concern of the Alawite officers. The Hezbollah elements in Syria that are providing training and assistance to the forces loyal to Assad are in contact with the various military units, including the Republican Guard. The aim of the offer that is part of Hezbollah’s preparations for after Assad’s fall is to insure the continuity of Hezbollah’s military and political power in Lebanon. The reason is that in case the opposition in Lebanon becomes united with the help and support of the international community, it will try to undermine Hezbollah’s power after it had lost Syria's strategic support.
According to the deal, the Syrian officers and their families will be given the right of asylum in Lebanon. In return, they will provide consultation services to Hezbollah units in the fields of engineering, ground war, missiles, and air defense. They will also help in training on the various weapons that were moved last year from Syria to Hezbollah bases in Lebanon. In the past few weeks, a number of Syrian officers arrived secretly in Beirut and discussed this deal with Hezbollah’s coordination elements. The party informed them that it will use its own funds to house them in large apartments in the Lebanese capital and that it will pay them salaries equal to what they are currently making in Syria based on their ranks. Hezbollah’s interests are concentrating on Syrian officers that are fully experienced in the use of modern weapons systems, particularly the Russian-made, such as long-range rockets and anti-aircraft missiles. The party is also focusing on officers from the special operations units. These moves by Hezbollah came following coordination with the "Al-Quds Corps" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the corps in charge of training the forces of the party in Lebanon and Iran. Since the fighting erupted in Syria 23 months ago, more than 1,000 Syrian officers defected to either Turkey or Jordan. There are several reasons for this defection such as the sudden fall of the Assad regime or frustration with the ideology of the Baath Party or refusal to participate in the mass killing operations that are being perpetrated against thousands of Syrian civilians. This trend grew after the suicide attack on 19 July 2012 that led to the killing of the three senior leaders of the regime Dawud Rajihah, Asif Shawkat, and Hasan Turkumani. The joint interests of the Syrian Alawite officers and Hezbollah testify to the hardships they will suffer after Assad's fall.
The fears of the Syrian officers stem from the emergence of a new regime seeking revenge. As for Hezbollah, it is worried that the opposition to it inside Lebanon will grow when this opposition realizes that Hezbollah is becoming isolated in the region. In the meantime, the party continues to use its resources in support of the forces loyal to Assad in Syria. In the past few months, Hezbollah raised the number of its fighters there whose activities are focused on Damascus, Aleppo, Al-Zabadani, Homs, and the Al-Qasir region close to the Lebanese border. The aim of Hezbollah’s activities on both sides of the Syrian-Lebanese borders is to protect its basic and future interests, especially securing its military supplies lines. The moves, schemes, and preparations are founded on the basis of "an expected and inevitable future". But which side can guarantee that the future will be like it has drawn in a region full of active volcanoes?

Coptic Pope Denounces Civil Disobedience in Egypt
By Ahmed Imbabi
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat—Head of Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Church, Pope Tawadros II, called on the political players in Egypt to demonstrate wisdom so that the country can extricate itself from the current political crisis. The Pope, who was enthroned in November, denounced the calls for civil disobedience and attacking state institutes.
Speaking exclusively to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Pope of the Coptic Orthodox Church of Alexandria stressed that all parties must demonstrate wisdom in dealing with the country’s difficult political situation. He issued this same call to the leaders of the opposition National Salvation Front, saying that they must make room for consensus and agreement among the different parties in the political arena and public affairs.
As for the Church’s position towards the political escalation being undertaken by some political and revolutionary forces, Pope Tawadros II emphasized, “We must give everybody a chance to take a deep breath away from the successive events, and we must also give the ruler a chance to work and implement his view.”
This comes after Egypt witnessed Cairo police unleashed water cannons and tear gas to disperse a crowd of protesters in front of the presidential palace on Friday. At least one person was killed and dozens injured in running clashes between the police and anti-regime protesters. At the same time as this, pro-government demonstrators staged a rally in central Cairo, reaffirming their support for embattled President Mohamed Mursi, demonstrating the political division besetting Egyptian society.
The anti-government protesters complain that Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood have hijacked the revolution, denouncing the new Egyptian constitution as being pro-Islamist. The Coptic Church had previously withdrawn from the Constitutional Assembly tasked with drafting the new constitution. However the Church lately participated in the national dialogue called for by president Mursi.
In exclusive comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, Pope Tawadros II denounced the civil disobedience and attacks on public institutes, saying “This is something that is completely unacceptable” adding “nobody can accept this because it harms everybody and increases the current decline of the state.”
The Coptic Pope called on those issuing such calls to give the rulers an opportunity to engage with and respond to their demands.
He also stressed that the Coptic Church had, along with all national political forces, participated in the Al-Azhar dialogue which ended with an agreement to renounce violence and lay the foundations for dialogue.
As for Mursi’s second call for national dialogue, Pope Tawadros II revealed that the Church had yet to receive an invitation to participate in this. He added that the Church supporters any positive effort carried out by any side for national consensus.
Earlier this month, the Coptic Pope had sharply criticized Egypt’s Islamist leadership, particularly its stance towards the country’s minorities. He told the Associated Press, “We (the Coptics) are a part of the soil of this nation and an extension of the pharaohs and their age before Christ. Yes, we are a minority in the numerical sense, but we are not a minority when it comes to value, history, interaction and love for our nation."

If We Lose Syria We Lose Tehran
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
The best description of Iran’s relationship with Syria, and the magnitude of Tehran’s loss if the tyrant of Damascus were to fall, was summed up by an Iranian cleric, Mehdi Taeb, a man tasked with combatting the soft war currently being directed against Iran. He said, “If we lose Syria we cannot maintain Tehran . . . But if we lose the province of Khuzestan [to the Al-Ahwaz Arabs] we could regain it as long as we keep Syria.”
Taeb not only said this, but also that “Syria is the 35th province and a strategic province for us. If we were to attack an enemy in order to keep Syria or Khuzestan, the priority would be to keep Syria.” In light of these statements, how can it be argued that what is happening in Syria is a sectarian war by proxy, or that the Syrian revolution is being orchestrated by extremists? The truth is that it is a revolution of the people who want to be free and rid themselves of the clutches of Iranian occupation, which has been a feature throughout the Assad era. These blunt statements, which seem to have been made as a result of the shock of what is happening on the ground in Syria, show the predicament of the Iranian project in the region, and not only in Syria. The fall of Assad would be the largest and most severe blow to be dealt to the Iranian project, and the concept of exporting the Khomeini revolution, and it would also mean that Iranian extremists would have to face up to the internal dues they have long evaded.
Remarkably, Taeb not only illustrated the importance of Syria for his country; he went further than that and spoke openly about the 60,000-strong forces overseen by Iran in Syria, saying, “The Syrian regime has an army, but it lacks the ability to conduct a war in Syrian cities. Therefore the Iranian government proposed to formulate an urban warfare force, consisting of 60,000 combat troops, to take over the war on the streets from the Syrian army.” This figure exceeds what was revealed recently about the number of troops supervised by Iran in Syria, which was said to have been closer to 50,000, and thus Taeb’s statements not only reveal the importance of Syria to Iran, they also reveal the extent of Iranian involvement in the Syrian bloodshed. Furthermore, they tell us that if we do not deal with the Syrian issue seriously, with international efforts, then this Iranian interference will pass by unchecked, and this means more extremism and sectarian conflict in the future, and this is a danger to the region as a whole.
These Iranian statements and others must not lead us to the conclusion that Iran should be given an official role in Syria, rather they should lead to international action to overthrow Bashar Assad and bring about his inevitable downfall, striking the Iranian expansionist project in the region. It is no exaggeration to say that the fall of Assad will serve as the first serious step towards halting Iran’s nuclear project. The fall of Assad does not necessarily mean the fall of Iran, but it means the Mullahs would return to their natural borders within Tehran, and this is what we need. Then the extremists of Iran will have to face their dues in the Iranian domestic scene, but that is their story. Our story is about a region that has been stricken by Iran and its interventions, its fifth column operating among us, and its men deployed in Syria who will remain silent as usual and not say a word about the Mehdi Taeb’s remarks.

Bahrain Foils King Fahd Causeway Bomb Plot
By Abeed al Suhaimy
Manama, Asharq Al-Awsat—The Bahraini Interior Ministry revealed that authorities had safely defused an explosive device discovered on the King Fahd Causeway that links the country to Saudi Arabia, preventing a major disaster. The Interior Ministry revealed that this bomb weighed approximately 2 kg and was discovered on Thursday near a mosque on the Bahraini side of the bridge which is used by thousands of people on a daily basis.
A Bahraini security source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, revealed that the bomb was made of highly explosive materials adding that the materials used in this bomb, and the place where it was discovered, indicates a huge leap forward in terms of the terrorist operations normally seen in Bahrain.
The explosive was placed inside an aluminum cooking pot along with nails and other shrapnel in order to cause the greatest damage and loss of life.
The Bahraini security source linked this foiled terrorist plot with the second anniversary of the 2011 Bahrain unrest and the deployment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Peninsula Shield to restore order to the country. The source said, “The terrorist cell sought to blow up the King Fahd Causeway as this was the way in which the Peninsula Shield troops entered Bahrain.”
He added, “They (the terrorists) view the Peninsula Shield troops that remain stationed in the country as an occupying force from Saudi Arabia and the King Fahd Causeway as a symbol of Saudi hegemony.”
The Bahraini security source was keen to stress that the bomb—in terms of its size and the explosives used to make it—posed no real threat to the King Fahd Causeway. He said that the bomb intended to cause the greatest loss of life and disrupt traffic on the bridge. The King Fahd Causeway is made up of 5 bridges, totaling 25 km, connecting Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There is a Border Station located along the Causeway which includes a number of government directorates and authorities, as well as two mosques, and restaurants and services.
The Bahraini security source informed Asharq Al-Awsat that this foiled terrorist attack is related to the terrorist cell that was arrested in November 2011 and which was seeking to target the Saudi embassy in Bahrain, among other targets. Bahrain public security chief Major General Tariq Hassan al-Hassan said that the bomb squad had been able to successfully defuse the explosive device, averting major loss of life. He revealed that Bahraini security had received a call at 4 pm on Thursday informing them that a cleaner had found a suspicious package.

Saudi Arabia Working for Regional Stability— Maliki Aide
By Hamza Mustapha
Baghdad, Asharq Al-Awsat—The day after a delegation headed by Ibrahim al-Jaafari, leader of the ruling National Iraqi Alliance (NIA), arrived in Riyadh to offer condolences to the Saudi government following the passing of Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz, an adviser to Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki has confirmed that “it is time that Iraqi-Saudi relations took on their natural range.”
Maryam Rayes, a political adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, confirmed in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat: “Greater openness with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia began with the recent Arab summit in Baghdad, which was attended by Saudi Arabia. Although the level of representation was not high, this was an important step, and so the Iraqi government responded through its own steps, whether through the ministry of foreign affairs or the NIA, which includes important components at the level of government and the political process. This highlights Iraq’s desire to establish better relations with a country of the stature of Saudi Arabia.” He added, “Saudi Arabia shares a long border with Iraq, as well as mutual interests and intertwined relationships, and therefore it is time that these relations took on their natural range.” Rayes believes that “the growth of Iraqi-Saudi relations will have a positive impact on the region as a whole, as events have proven that Saudi Arabia is working for the stability of the region.”
For his part, Hassan al-Alawi, an independent member of the Iraqi parliament and a prominent intellectual, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “it is well known that Saudi Arabia responds to positive gestures in kind. It is a state influenced by humanitarian stances, and one of its major advantages is that it deals with any party on the principle of good faith, and in turn it will match that good faith and more.” He pointed out, “Saudi Arabia does not tend to intervene in the internal matters of other states; it has never been a party to the internal conflicts between Iraqi blocs and factions.” Alawi added, “I can say, by virtue of my knowledge of Saudi Arabia, that the Saudis do not have an agenda in Iraq like other countries, which have sought and are seeking to interfere in Iraqi affairs by various ways and means.” He went on to say, “It was a mistake for Iraq to distance from Saudi Arabia and open up to other countries that are already isolated and have little international influence, such as Iran, while Saudi Arabia is an important regional gateway with significant international influence, with no ambitions or designs on Iraq.” Alawi revealed that he had “advised Maliki, in more than one personal meeting, to undertake initiatives towards Saudi Arabia because it will respond in kind.”

Israel's Cover-ups
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed
Asharq Al-Awsat
We are usually highly critical of Arab governments, accusing them of being outdated. We also blame them for their rigid commitment to policies of suppression and silence. But then we witness a country, such as Israel, displaying traits that are just as bad as those we have been criticizing. We typically assume Israel is a modern and strong country that can deal with everything in a transparent manner. It has larger universities, larger research centers and more advanced media institutes than us. This story, however, concerns Israel’s “Prisoner X”, who is believed to have committed suicide in his cell after being held secretly in prison where he was given the above code-name to conceal his identity. After an Australian television channel exposed Prisoner X’s fate, the Israeli security apparatus rushed to muzzle the local media by bringing together Israel's journalists and warning them against publishing this news. This move only increased the British and other international media’s longing to investigate and uncover the “crime.”
For comparison purposes, let’s revisit the exposure of the last significant Israeli “secret” when Dubai police chief Dhahi Khalfan surprised the world with the substantial quantity of images and information about the Israeli cell that infiltrated the country and assassinated Palestinian leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in early 2010. Khalfan showed images of 27 people who had arrived in Dubai from six different countries using fake Western passports. This scene was unprecedented; photos, passports, places and a map showing the sequence of events. In this world of modern technology and communication, the fake passports, wigs and disguises did not help the agents because their faces were uncovered and revealed to the world. The faces of these agents would have been seen across the globe, rendering them useless for any future operations.
Prisoner X, who the Israelis claim committed suicide, may not be one of Mabhouh's killers; the Australian media began investigating this mysterious detainee 6 months before the Dubai murder took place. Following the scandalous muzzling of the Israeli press Tel Aviv has shown that it is primarily a security and military-based regime, adhering to out-of-date concepts in a world that is full of super-fast ways of reporting the news. Israeli writer Ronen Bergman tells an old story about the basement in Beit Sokolov (headquarters of Israeli Journalists Association), quoting an expert on military censorship. The military expert revealed, “Forty years ago, we had listening devices on phone lines belonging to foreign journalists. They used to call their colleagues, and we used sit and listen to their calls from the basement. Every time a journalist revealed more information than they should have, we would interrupt on the line and shout for them to stop. If that did not work, we would simply terminate the call. I think those rushing to conceal this story are still living with a ‘basement mentality.’”
He relates a similar story regarding the policy of concealing truth under the pretext of security requirements, when in fact this is nothing more than covering up the murder of an Israeli agent, committed by the Israeli security forces more than half a century ago. He reveals that the victim’s son had lived for decades, believing that his father had fled to Brazil and abandoned him and his mother. The security services continued to lie to his family until a journalist, fifty years later, revealed that his father was a secret agent who was killed by an anesthetic dose during his abduction to return him to Israel. In order to hide the crime, they decided to throw his body in the sea and claim that the man fled to Brazil.
Maybe they were able to hide political crimes in 1952, but how can they do so in this day and age? The Dubai video tapes prove that deception is possible, but not forever as the truth will eventually come out. When Israelis claim the Arab press is not free, and that in Israel, they can throw rotten tomatoes at the prime minister, we agree with them. However at least we are aware that the press is not free and are accordingly unhappy about this fact, whereas they are collective partners in these deceptions and lies.
This is a new era that is being ruled by out-of-date minds, not just in terms of journalistic dishonesty, but also politics. Israel’s leaders believe the occupation of the Palestinian territories is guaranteed and permanent, as long as there is enough cement and bullets. However one day they will find themselves out of time and out of land. The occupation may last for a century, but it will remain an occupation, something that requires all of Israel’s potential and production, until Israel’s factories fall silent.

The Syrian Jihad
By Mshari Al-Zaydi/Asharq Al-Awsat
The news that we hear—both sincere and false—regarding the presence of “jihadists” among the Syrian revolutionaries rising up against the Bashar al-Assad regime is deliberate and characterized by an intent to distort reality.
Such news most often features the so-called Nusra Front (meaning the Support Front) which is a particularly mysterious group. The most that we can find out about this “front” is that it is made up of diverse groups fighting against Assad’s army, security apparatus, and Shabiha militia. There are also reports about the presence of Jordanian, Libyan and even Chechen and Saudi youth in the ranks of these groups which are fighting, tooth and nail, to “support” those being killed, displaced, tortured and raped at the hands of Assad’s forces.
I know that some people prefer not to talk about this in order not to gloat at the Assad regime finally getting its comeuppance. However it would be best to deal with this issue in a sincere and transparent manner. As for being glad at the evident weakening of the Assad regime’s position, not to mention the position that Moscow Tsar Putin, Tehran Mullah Khamenei, and Beirut Preacher Nasrallah now find themselves in, this is normal. The presence of such groups in Syria, which only arrived in the latter stages of the life of the revolution, does not grant them a pardon for their deadly crimes, or at the very least their support and protection of the killers. Rather this serves as more damning evidence regarding the extent of the destruction and desolation overseen by the Assad regime and its international supporters against the vulnerable Syrian people. This forced the Syrians to resort to anybody willing to extend a helping hand against Assad’s killing machine, even if this were the devil himself. In addition to this, Assad’s security-based regime, along with Tehran, previously suffered the presence of Al-Qaeda linked groups on numerous occasions in the past. This is not to mention Fatah al-Islam in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp in Lebanon, nor the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) harboring of Al-Qaeda commanders in Iran. Therefore Damascus and Tehran are hardly in the position to offer advice regarding the dangers of cooperation with terrorists.
As for the second issue, the arrival of resistance groups, or shall we say jihadists, in Syria represents a natural result of the international community’s failure to deal with the Syrian crisis, if this was not by design. This is the natural result of the violent transgressions carried out by Assad and his forces, Nasrallah’s militia, the IRGC officers, and Russian “experts” which all led to feeling of hopelessness and futility in those who found themselves in the cross-hairs. This is the reality, and what goes around comes around.

US plan for UN to endorse Khamenei’s fatwa? Shock in Jerusalem
DEBKAfile Special Report/February 17, 2013/President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Iran was a “nuclear state” during his Cairo visit two weeks ago. Saturday, Feb. 16, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shed more light by saying, “Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons but no power could stop Tehran’s access to an atomic bomb if it intended to build it. “
debkafile: Iran’s leaders are therefore quite frank about the state of their nuclear program: the components of a nuclear weapon have been procured - defying Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu red lines - but Tehran has not yet crossed the threshold to assemble it - although this could be done modularly.
And if the Islamic Republic has acquired the components and knowledge for surreptitiously building one bomb, it stands to reason that three or five would be no object.
On Feb. 12, debkafile revealed that Iranian scientists attended the latest North Korean atomic test. Six days later, the Sunday Times repeated the story, naming Mohsen Fakhrizade-Mahabadi, the senior Iranian scientist of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as the official present. Our Iranian sources strongly doubt that Mahabadi was there because he is too afraid of kidnapping or assassination to ever leave Iran.
We also revealed how the Iranian-North Korean nuclear partnership worked and the division of clandestine labor between them. Their arrangement – to which Washington and Jerusalem prefer to turn a blind eye –assigns to Iran the development of small nuclear warheads for delivery by missiles and to North Korea the development of ballistic missiles able to land a warhead at any point on the planet.
The two governments work smoothly in tandem, regularly pooling the data obtained from advances in their respective programs.
One such advance was Iran’s successful launch of a monkey into orbit at an altitude of 120 kilometers on Jan. 28 and its apparent return it to earth. Washington tried hard to throw cold water on the Iranian feat, but Tehran countered by citing Western sources as confirming the launch.
A gap still remains in their accounts: Washington does not question the launch of a space capsule - only the monkey aboard.
However, the North Korean test of a “miniature nuclear device," combined with Iran’s ability to launch a capsule with a monkey payload into orbit, add up to their having achieved a nuclear warhead capacity through shared technology. After registering these menacing strides, officials in Jerusalem were dismayed to learn that instead of planning to cut them short, US President Barack’s Obama’s circle in Washington was studying a bizarre plan for the opposite objective.
It surfaced in an article published Tuesday, Feb. 12, by Ambassador Thomas Pickering, a veteran American diplomat who is influential in the framing of Obama’s Iranian policy.
This what he wrote: “In years past, he (Khamenei) issued a fatwa condemning nuclear weapons. Washington could take advantage of this fact by drafting a UN Security Council resolution endorsing the fatwa. This could be a small step toward boosting Khamenei’s international profile while simultaneously pressuring Iran to follow its own religious decree.”
Instead of dismantling these rogue nuclear programs, Pickering was proposing to legitimize Iran’s possession of a nuclear bomb capacity that only stopped one step short of assembling a bomb.
For the Shiite republic, UN endorsement as a nuclear power would be an epic triumph with ramifications for many years to come on its standing and the shape of the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
It would also endow Khamenei’s fatwa with false religious value – and not just for Sunni Muslims. Khamenei has neither the authority nor the erudition for issuing a binding Shiite fatwa either. Yet Pickering proposes extending the supreme leader a religious honor denied him by the leading Shiite clerics of Qom.
This fatwa has always been dismissed until now as a piece of propaganda designed to disguise the military aspects of Iran’s nuclear program and support Tehran’s claim that it was purely for peaceful use and research.
The stratagem floating around the White house for buttering up Khamenei and granting his edict international legitimacy just weeks before President Obama’s March 20 visit to Jerusalem is causing consternation among his Israeli hosts. It is a worrying pointer to the direction in which his Iran policy is heading.

Canada Condemns Latest Bombing in Pakistan
February 16, 2013 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:
“Canada condemns today’s terrorist attack on innocent Pakistani civilians. On behalf of all Canadians, I extend our deepest sympathies to the families and friends of the victims, as well as best wishes for speedy recoveries to those injured. “This latest attack on the Hazara community is a blatant assault on all civilized norms. It underscores the need for swift and determined action by the Government of Pakistan against terrorist groups that prey on innocents in Pakistan.
“We expect that the perpetrators of this horrendous attack will be brought to justice.
“Canada supports the courageous efforts of our allies to prevent extremist groups from arming and organizing within Pakistan.
“Canada will continue to work with the people of Pakistan and our allies to help Pakistan address the challenges it faces, and to encourage freedom of religion throughout the region.”
 
Egypt: Christian Priests Threatened to Convert to Islam or Die
February 16, 2013 | Raymond Ibrahim
A few days ago in Safaga, an Egyptian town near the Red Sea, Christian priests from the local Coptic church reported to the local prosecutor that they were personally being threatened with death. According to the February 10, 2013 report from the Arabic news site El Balad, yet another new jihadi group in Egypt calling itself jihad al-kufror “Jihad Against Infidelity—that is, jihad against all non-Muslims—has been sending the priests “invitations” to enter Islam, or otherwise be killed.

Emboldened Islamists Condemn Egypt's Grand Mufti
February 16, 2013 | Raymond Ibrahim
Whenever Islamists grow in strength and influence, non-Muslims — and even Muslims not deemed Islamic enough — bear the brunt. This is the history of Islam. In weakness, it is tolerant and “inclusive,” in strength, it is aggressive and demanding of conformity — just as its prophet’s career suggests: when he was in Mecca outnumbered, Muhammad preached tolerance; when he went to Medina and became a warlord, he preached war. Compare the Mecca verses of the Koran to the Medina verses for an idea.
Ali Gomaa: How the mighty have fallen
Since the Muslim Brotherhood took over Egypt, empowered Islamists have become less bashful and hesitant about showing their true face. Even once well-respected and authoritative Muslim scholars are under attack. Ali Gomaa, the outgoing grand mufti of Egypt — often described as one of the world’s leading authorities on Islam — was the latest to experience this phenomenon.
During a recent sermon he was giving about the importance of jihad inmasjid al-rahma (“Mercy Mosque”) in Port Said, at least one listener interrupted him, screaming “You’re a hypocrite …. You’re a member of the former regime!” Other disparagements were likely hurled as the recording appears to have been partially censored.
Interestingly, these insults were hurled at the esteemed Gomaa while he was quoting from the following Koran excerpt:
Fight in the way of Allah those who fight you but do not transgress. Indeed. Allah does not like transgressors. And kill them wherever you overtake them and expel them from wherever they have expelled you, and fitna is worse than killing. And do not fight them at al-Masjid al- Haram until they fight you there. But if they fight you, then kill them. Such is the recompense of the disbelievers (2:191-192).
Even so, in the new Egypt, apparently Ali Gomaa isn’t Islamic enough...Continue reading
Whenever Islamists grow in strength and influence, non-Muslims — and even Muslims not deemed Islamic enough — bear the brunt. This is the history of Islam. In weakness, it is tolerant and “inclusive,” in strength, it is aggressive and demanding of conformity — just as its prophet’s career suggests: when he was in Mecca outnumbered, Muhammad preached tolerance; when he went to Medina and became a warlord, he preached war. Compare the Mecca verses of the Koran to the Medina verses for an idea.
Ali Gomaa: How the mighty have fallen
Since the Muslim Brotherhood took over Egypt, empowered Islamists have become less bashful and hesitant about showing their true face. Even once well-respected and authoritative Muslim scholars are under attack. Ali Gomaa, the outgoing grand mufti of Egypt — often described as one of the world’s leading authorities on Islam — was the latest to experience this phenomenon.
During a recent sermon he was giving about the importance of jihad in masjid al-rahma (“Mercy Mosque”) in Port Said, at least one listener interrupted him, screaming “You’re a hypocrite …. You’re a member of the former regime!” Other disparagements were likely hurled as the recording appears to have been partially censored.
Interestingly, these insults were hurled at the esteemed Gomaa while he was quoting from the following Koran excerpt:
Fight in the way of Allah those who fight you but do not transgress. Indeed. Allah does not like transgressors. And kill them wherever you overtake them and expel them from wherever they have expelled you, and fitna is worse than killing. And do not fight them at al-Masjid al- Haram until they fight you there. But if they fight you, then kill them. Such is the recompense of the disbelievers (2:191-192).
Even so, in the new Egypt, apparently Ali Gomaa isn’t Islamic enough — even though he was promoting the cause of jihad and even though he earlier labeled all Christians “infidels.” Of course, Gomaa has long been disliked for other, more “moderate” stances — but by al-Qaeda types hiding in caves or imprisoned, not, as they are now, empowered, and thus unabashed.
A visibly shaken Gomaa fired back (see beginning around 1:27) — saying that prophet Muhammad labeled those who create fitna, or discord in Muslim societies, as “dogs of hell,” who “corrupt the earth,” and take the teachings of Islam out of context, like the Kharajites before them, who must be fought and killed.
If the grand mufti is not Islamic enough — and during a sermon extolling the virtues of jihad no less — who is? The Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis are. And now that they are empowered, and thus emboldened, they seek total conformity.
At any rate, isn’t it ironic how Islamists un-caged and empowered always turn on those Muslims who, while long nurturing of Islam, are just not “Islamic” enough? For example, former Egyptian President Sadat, though much more sympathetic and tolerant to Islamists than his predecessor — Sadat included Sharia in the Egyptian constitution and released a great many jihadis imprisoned under Nasser – was repaid by being assassinated by those he freed, those he un-caged, under the rationale that he was just not Islamic enough.
 

The Region: What Obama faces in Israel
By BARRY RUBIN/J.Post
02/17/2013 21:51 So what does Israel want to tell Obama and what is he likely to offer or do on his upcoming visit? We are told that President Barack Obama’s visit to Israel in late March will focus on Syria and Iran.
So what does Israel want to tell Obama and what is he likely to offer or do? While it’s a bit early to discuss this, it is perhaps useful to prepare for various eventualities.
Syria
Presumably, Israel’s leadership will express a consensus view that its main concern is not who governs Syria but how they behave. There’s no sympathy in Israel for the Bashar Assad dictatorship, which has long sponsored terrorism against Israel. In addition, it is widely recognized that the regime’s fall means a defeat for Iran, which would be losing its principal ally.
The situation has also opened gaps between Iran and Turkey, which has been very friendly toward Iran (a point the Obama administration has ignored). And if Israel ever did attack Iranian nuclear installations, an anti-Iran Sunni-ruled Syrian regime is less likely to do anything in response.
In addition to all that, a successful Syrian revolution would weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon, which at the moment is the biggest threat on Israel’s borders (Hamas is more likely to attack but less capable of doing serious damage), and could well mean that the Lebanese terrorist group will be too busy and insecure to renew the kind of attacks seen in 2006 and earlier years.
Yet what will replace the current government of Syria? Israel will stress that it worries about a Muslim Brotherhood regime that will try to step up the conflict with Israel, including backing its own terrorist clients in Lebanon and Gaza.
Another point – which the Obama administration doesn’t seem to comprehend (though some of its officials worry about this) – is that such a regime would be permissive toward Salafist groups wanting to attack Israel across the border, along with a high degree of anarchy in that part of southern Syria, with the same effect.
Israel will also warn that lots of weapons, including some very advanced ones, are pouring into Syria that will not be secured after the civil war ends and that will end in the hands of terrorists to whom they will either be sold, or even given directly by the American-Turkish- Qatari-Saudi strategy. They might point to Libya as an example of this process. Perhaps some future US ambassador to Syria and other operatives will be murdered trying to get some of those weapons back.
The US government will talk about the prospects for democracy in Syria, how the Muslim Brotherhood there is going to be moderate and pragmatic, and how the aim of US policy is to use the Brotherhood to restrain the Salafists.
Israeli officials will be very polite in discussions, and sarcastic when they talk among themselves afterward. The two countries’ interests may not clash, but since the Obama administration isn’t pursuing real American interests, that doesn’t help matters. The United States will help install in Syria a regime that is likely to be hard-line anti- Israel (as opposed to soft-line anti-Israel) that might well form an alliance with Egypt and Hamas, try to destabilize Jordan, and give help and weapons to anti-Israel terrorists.
That might be an improvement over what exists now but if America would help the Syrian moderates that would be far preferable.
Iran
Presumably, the US delegation and Obama will emphasize their optimism about negotiations with Teheran and express wishful thinking that the June election will result in a more moderate government after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad leaves office. In other words, they will preach hope and patience.
In addition, they will stress that all options are being kept open and that the United States will never accept Iran having nuclear weapons. How the US government is going to stop this is quite unclear. Personally, I don’t believe that Obama will ever attack Iranian nuclear facilities or support such an Israeli operation.
I’m not saying he should do so; I’m just predicting he won’t do so.
There might also be talk about covert operations, perhaps even based on US-Israel cooperation, and intelligence- gathering efforts on Iran’s drive to obtain nuclear weapons.
What’s not clear is how much Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will emphasize the idea of an attack on Iranian facilities. Presumably, he will say that he is happy to give the United States and other Western countries time to try non-military means, including sanctions. He will warn them that negotiations won’t work. He might say something to the effect that Israel will wait out 2013 but when 2014 comes and Iran’s drive continues, that would be the moment for a military response.
The reality is, however, that Obama will continue to deny that his strategy is one of containment. That will go on until Iran gets nuclear weapons and Obama switches to an open containment strategy. It might be too early to discuss – and Israel might not want to do so lest it reduce potential US support for an attack – but it is important to understand that there’s “good containment” and “bad containment.”
On that point I need say only two words: Chuck Hagel.
He will likely be US secretary of defense. Want four more words? John Kerry, John Brennan. They will be secretary of state and CIA chief. The problem of terrible ideas meeting terrible incompetence.
If the United States is going to end up focusing on containing Iran – stopping it from using nuclear weapons or giving them to terrorists – it better be done well. As for containing Iran strategically, the Egyptian and Syrian revolutions are largely doing that job.
At the end of the meeting, everyone will then state publicly that the talks show the continued strength of the US-Israel alliance and that Obama is a great president and a wonderful friend of Israel. Then Obama will return to Washington to get back to the business of installing or helping anti-Israel Islamist governments in Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey; making sure Israel is never too tough against Hamas in the Gaza Strip; and losing credibility with America’s anti-Islamist Arab and other friends.
**The author is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center (www.gloria-center.org) and blogs at The Rubin Report (rubinreports.blogspot.com)

Lebanon, a tricky investment choice
February 18, 2013ÙBy Elias Sakr/The Daily Star
Daher: Investing in Lebanese bonds is reasonable as part of a diversified portfolio.
BEIRUT: Simply put, cash is king. The age-old saying never stood more true in terms of existing investments opportunities in Lebanon, says the head of a Beirut-based investment and private equity firm. The logic behind the advice is simple: The risk-to-reward ratio in Lebanon is higher than other countries from a financial investor’s perspective, V-Cap CEO Sami Daher says as he dissects each investment option.
The first investment opportunity that jumps to mind is treasury bonds, but Daher says the yields are not as lucrative as some people believe. A 10-year Lebanese pound-denominated Treasury bond pays around 7.8 percent interest.
At first glance, subscribing to Treasury bonds seems a profitable investment, but taking into account Lebanon’s B- risk rating and an inflation rate of at least 6 percent, investors should give it a second thought, Daher says.
While the inflation rate varies from one source to another, some economists put the 6 percent 2012 estimate by Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh at the low end.
According to the latest figures released by the Central Administration of Statistics, the consumer price index recorded a 10.1 percent year-on-year increase in December 2012.
“Given the inflation rate for Lebanese residents and considering the risk premium, an investor might be better off putting his money into savings deposits that pay up to 6.25-6.5 percent without risking a sudden drop in the par value of bonds in case of an increase in market rates,” Daher says.
“Investing in Lebanese treasury bonds is reasonable as part of a globally diversified portfolio.”
Investing in 10-year dollar-denominated Eurobonds pays around 5.8 percent but investors are exposed to the same risks, Daher adds.
“Contrary to popular belief, buying Eurobonds will not shield investors in the event of a collapse of the Lebanese pound, which would ultimately imply a country default.”
However, Daher explains that while on paper the risk of default remains, Lebanese political parties have shown an interest in maintaining stability and no signs of pushing the country to the brink of collapse.
Lebanon’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 136 percent at the end of September 2012, the highest among Arab countries, with GDP growth slumping from 8 percent in 2010 to 1.7 percent in 2011, according to IMF estimates.
The Institute of International Finance has estimated Lebanon’s GDP growth at 0.6 percent in 2012 while experts say the 2012 budget will record the first primary deficit in 12 years, raising the total budget deficit to around 10 percent of GDP.
In a bid to reduce the cost of debt servicing and make the budget deficit more manageable, the government and Central Bank have maintained lower interest rates on short- and medium-term T-bills.
As a result, the Central Bank had to intervene at several stages to buy T-bills, which have become less appealing to local banks that hold about 75 percent of the country’s debt.
At the end of November 2012, the yields on three-month and six-month T-bills stood at 4.43 percent and 4.99 percent respectively. In a T-bills auction held Feb. 7, the average discount rates for the one-year bill and the coupon rate for the two-year and three-year bills stood respectively at 5.08 percent, 5.84 percent, and 6.5 percent. Five-year T-bills paid 6.74 percent in November 2012 compared to 11.5 percent in October 2007.
Sources say the issue of 10-year bonds in September was just one of a series of steps taken by the Central Bank to raise the interest on Lebanese debt, making it more attractive for Lebanese banks, which had cut interest rates on local-currency deposits to compensate for lower T-bill yields.
According to the Association of Lebanese banks, the average interest rate on pound and dollar deposits stood respectively at 5.38 and 2.85 percent in November 2012 compared to 5.43 percent and 2.87 percent in October 2012.
Lower yields on T-bills and provisions against credit losses in Syria took their toll on Lebanese bank profits in 2012.
The country’s five listed banks – Byblos, BLOM, Audi, Bank of Beirut and BEMO – posted an aggregate 2.4 percent growth in profits to $1.01 billion, compared to $986 million in 2011. Excluding the proceeds from the sale of 81 percent of Audi’s LIA insurance arm for $44.5 million, results shows a 2.1 percent year-on-year decline in aggregate net income.
Yet, despite trading at a weighed P/E ratio of 7.5 at the end of December compared to 12.2 in the MENA region, Daher says investing in BSE-listed companies, including but not restricted to bank stocks, is unappealing:
“A long-term investor with a buy and hold strategy has better options in equity markets other than Lebanon. On the other hand, investors seeking to trade the market on the short term will be disadvantaged despite attractive valuations due to inside information.”
Daher explains that flawed regulatory frameworks and lax law enforcement regarding insider trading, among other issues, disadvantages some investors and favors others.
Asked whether the real estate sector remains a window of opportunity amid the gloomy investment map he painted, Daher says an investor has to be selective:
“The sector, overall, is unattractive from a financial investor’s perspective given high prices and the low potential for any appreciation. But if one is selective, some investment opportunities exist. On the other hand, developers of small-size housing units can still benefit from an underserved market.”
He says investors still interested in Lebanon despite all this should diversify their portfolio.
Daher worked as an institutional broker in the United States for 14 years before returning to Beirut in 2006. In 2008 he established V-Cap, a company with offices in Chicago, San Francisco and Riyadh.