LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 10/2013

Bible Quotation for today/A Prayer for Help
Isaiah 33/01-07: "Our enemies are doomed! They have robbed and betrayed, although no one has robbed them or betrayed them. But their time to rob and betray will end, and they themselves will become victims of robbery and treachery. Lord, have mercy on us. We have put our hope in you. Protect us day by day and save us in times of trouble.  When you fight for us, nations run away from the noise of battle.  Their belongings are pounced upon and taken as loot. How great the Lord is! He rules over everything. He will fill Jerusalem with justice and integrity  and give stability to the nation. He always protects his people and gives them wisdom and knowledge. Their greatest treasure is their reverence for the Lord. The brave are calling for help. The ambassadors who tried to bring about peace are crying bitterly.  The highways are so dangerous that no one travels on them. Treaties are broken and agreements are violated. No one is respected any more.  The land lies idle and deserted. The forests of Lebanon have withered, the fertile valley of Sharon is like a desert, and in Bashan and on Mount Carmel the leaves are falling from the trees.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
 The Maronite malaise/Anthony ElGhossain/Now Lebanon/ February 10/13
 Iran and Egypt, elusive common ground/By ZVI MAZEL/J. Post/February 10/13
 Alawites Not Responsible for Assad’s Survival/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat/February 10/13
Greetings From the Gulf to Al-Azhar’s Free Sheikh/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 10/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 10/13
 Rai attends Yazigi enthronement ceremony in Damascus
Al-Rahi, Meqdad Exchange Words during Yazigi's Enthronement in Damascus
 Report: Mamlouk Sent Hizbullah New List of Assassination Targets
 Batroun MP Butros Harb Warns Against Politicizing al-Rahi's Visit to Damascus
 Qaouq Says Same Political Cover for Syria Rebels, Arsal 'Troop Killers'
More than 265,000 Syrian Refugees Aided in Lebanon
 Future to announce initiative over Arsal: Majdalani
Two killed, 3 injured in Sidon road accident
Lebanon’s Geagea congratulates Kerry on new post
 Bulgaria asks for help probing anti-Israeli attack
Obama visit to Israel could see three-way summit: Israel minister
Iran: Protesters throw shoes at house speaker
Israel Air Force now holds key to fate of Damascus, Assad regime
 Yadlin: Israel will act on any Syria arms transfers
Bulgaria: Iran didn't recall envoy over Burgas probe
 Prince Turki bin Salman New SRMG Chairman
 Tunisian PM Threatens to Resign
 Tunisian president's party quits Islamist-led government
Jordan's king inaugurates new parliament
Egypt PM in hot water over "unclean breasts" remarks
Asharq Al-Awsat Interview: Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari
 Ahmadinejad: I'll talk with US if pressure stops

Asharq Al-Awsat Interview: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
 Gunbattle rocks north Mali city after suicide attack
Rebels, troops battle for key Damascus highway

Rai attends Yazigi enthronement ceremony in Damascus
February 10, 2013/The Daily Star
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai (2nd L) attends the enthronement of Syria's Greek Orthodox leader Yuhanna X Yazigi at the Holy Cross church in Damascus on February 10, 2013. AFP PHOTO / LOUAI BESHARA
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Cardinal Beshara Rai attended a ceremony in Damascus marking the enthronement of the new patriarch of the Greek Orthodox Church, John X Yazigi Sunday.
The cardinal said that Yazigi’s ordination comes at hard times for Syria, voicing solidarity with the Syrian people. “We came here to confirm our love and solidarity with our people and to declare we carry together the bible of peace and human dignity,” said Rai. “Everything being said and asked for of reforms and human rights and democracies, these are not worth the blood of an innocent human being shed,” he added.
For his part, Yazigi thanked Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad and other officials for supporting or attending the ceremony.
He expressed hope for the reaching of a “peaceful political solution so that violence ends and the country returns to stability and peace.”
Yazigi also saluted Lebanese President Michel Sleiman, saying that anything that goes wrong in either Lebanon or Syria would be “harming us deeply.”
Snipers deployed on the rooftops around Holy Cross church in the heart of Damascus on Sunday as dignitaries from Middle East churches arrived for the enthronement.
Guests bearing official invitations were whisked through metal detectors at the door, but their chauffeurs were prohibited from parking, and throngs of devotees had to watch the liturgy on a giant screen outside.
Only Rai and Catholic Patriarch Gregory Laham represented their churches in person.
Other denominations sent representatives, a member of the organizing committee told AFP outside the church in the city's Qassaa district.
Presidential Affairs Minister Mansour Azzam, a key adviser to Bashar al-Assad, was also among ministers representing the embattled government at Yazigi's enthronement.
Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Meqdad was also present and TV footage showed Rai talking to him as he entered the church to attend the ceremony.
Opposition MP Butros Harb voiced concern Sunday that the Syrian regime will exploit Rai’s visit politically to give the illusion that the Maronite Church is taking his side in the conflict.
“I know that the visit is religious, but I fear that the Syrian regime will give the trip a political dimension to spread rumors that the Maronite Patriarchate is supporting one Syrian side at the expense of the other, and ultimately engage the church in the Syrian conflict,” said Harb who spoke to the Kataeb-run voice of Lebanon radio station.
Meanwhile, Future MP Nidal Tohme said that no political dimension should be given to the visit.
“Let’s not give the issue more than it bears,” said the Akkar lawmaker addressing his visitors Sunday.
“There are Christians in Syria and it is normal that the patriarch checks how they are doing especially in such critical circumstances. This has nothing to do with politics,” said Tohme.
During his historic visit to Syria, the first by a head of the Maronite Church since Lebanon’s independence from France in 1943, Rai voiced solidarity Saturday with Syrians and expressed hope for an end to the nearly two-year old conflict.According to Rai, his trip aimed to show that there is unity, friendship and cooperation between the Maronite and the Orthodox churches and all the churches in Syria.
Bishop Samir Mazloum said over the weekend that there was no political dimension to Rai’s visit and that the cardinal would not meet any Syrian officials during his stay.
Commenting on the news, President Michel Sleiman said that Rai’s visit to Damascus should not be politicized, adding that he supported the patriarch’s trip.
John X Yazigi, bishop of Western and Central Europe, was elected Greek Orthodox patriarch of the Levant and Antioch, succeeding Patriarch Hazim Ignatius IV who died in December 2012.
The election took place during a gathering of 18 bishops from Greek Orthodox archbishoprics around the world who met in Lebanon to elect Hazim’s successor.
Like Hazim, Yazigi is also Syrian. He was born in Latakia in 1955.- with AFP

Al-Rahi, Meqdad Exchange Words during Yazigi's Enthronement in Damascus
Naharnet/Greek Orthodox leader Youhanna X Yazigi was on Sunday enthroned in Damascus during a ceremony that was attended by Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi and the Syrian deputy foreign minister.
The ceremony took place at the Church of the Holy Cross in Qassaa, a central neighborhood of the conflict-hit Syrian capital. Gregorios III Laham, Patriarch of the Melkite Greek Catholic Church, was also among the top spiritual officials present at the mass. TV footage showed al-Rahi and Laham speaking with Syrian Deputy FM Faisal al-Mekdad as he entered the church to attend the ceremony. Presidential Affairs Minister Mansour Azzam, a key adviser to Bashar Assad, was among ministers representing the embattled government. Snipers deployed on the rooftops around the church and guests bearing official invitations were whisked through metal detectors at the door, but their chauffeurs were prohibited from parking, and throngs of devotees had to watch the liturgy on a giant screen outside. Al-Rahi said after Yazigi's enthronement that he came to Damascus at a difficult time to confirm his solidarity with the “wounded” Syrian people. “You have been chosen at a difficult time in Syria,” he told the Greek Orthodox patriarch. “We stress unity and love among us.”
“We are all brothers and sisters and we should preserve the life of humans,” he said. Discussions on reform and democracy cannot be compared with the blood shed by a single person in Syria, he added.
In remarks to LBCI, al-Rahi denied that his visit had a political aspect. Al-Rahi said on Saturday that reform in Syria is reached through internal efforts and dialogue, explaining that it cannot be imposed by any foreign interference. During a mass he held at the Maronite Cathedral of St. Anthony in Damascus' Christian district of Bab Tuma on the occasion of St. Maroun, al-Rahi said: “Any role for the international community should not contradict with this.”"We pray each day for the end of war and violence and that a unanimous peace may be achieved through cooperation,” he stated. His visit -- the first by a Maronite patriarch since Syrian and Lebanese independence in 1943 -- comes as the revolt against Assad's regime nears the two-year mark. Yazigi was chosen as the Patriarch of Antioch and All the East on December 17, replacing Ignatius IV Hazim who died earlier in the same month. After his enthronement, Yazigi said: “Anything that harms Lebanon or Syria would affect all of us deeply.”“We salute Lebanese President Michel Suleiman,” he said.
He also thanked Assad and said: “We hope that Syria would find a peaceful political solution so that violence ends and the country returns to stability and peace.”
Agence France Presse/Naharnet

Batroun MP Butros Harb Warns Against Politicizing al-Rahi's Visit to Damascus
Naharnet/Batroun MP Butros Harb expressed fears on Sunday that the Assad regime would use the pastoral visit of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi to Damascus to meet political objectives.
“It's a pastoral visit made by the patriarch with the aim of consolidating Maronite-Orthodox cooperation,” Harb said.
“But I am afraid that this visit would be used politically … by the Syrian regime to give the impression that the Maronite patriarch supports one team against the other in Syria,” Harb told Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5).
He also expressed fears that the Maronite church would be pushed into the Syrian crisis. Al-Rahi made a two-day visit to Damascus on Saturday - the first by a Maronite patriarch since Syrian and Lebanese independence in 1943 - during which he presided mass at Saint Anthony's Cathedral in the Christian district of Bab Tuma. On Sunday, he attended the enthronement of Greek Orthodox leader Youhanna X Yazigi at the Church of the Holy Cross in Qassaa, a central neighborhood of the conflict-ridden Syrian capital. Harb, a member of the March 14 opposition alliance, expressed regret that Maronites in Lebanon were not united. “I don't think that Maronites would be okay if they keep putting themselves in constant conflicts,” he told VDL.“The Maronite base is in loss” over divisions among political officials, he said.

The Maronite malaise
Anthony ElGhossain/Now Lebanon
On their patron saint’s day, the Maronites have little to celebrate—and even less to offer Lebanon, the country they once built. The Maronite malaise, one of doubt and mediocrity, continues.
In the early fifth century A.D., acolytes of Saint Maron—an ascetic monk who’d lived in Antioch and near the Orontes River—built a monastery in his honor. Monks, spiritual followers and students gradually coalesced around that monastery. However, the Maronites soon found themselves mired in early Christendom’s doctrinal controversies. At a battle near the monastery, the Byzantines slaughtered some 300 monks. The Maronites fled from the Orontes and settled in the northern reaches of Mount Lebanon, an inhospitable range of peaks dotting the Eastern Mediterranean shore.
They’ve called these lands home ever since. Indeed, for better or for worse, theirs is the story of Lebanon. In centuries of relative isolation, the Maronites nurtured a strong communal (almost ethnic) identity. Even so, as they engaged neighbors, regional powers and foreign participants, the Maronites drew themselves from the mountain.
Over time, particularly during the late Ottoman period, the Maronites laid Lebanon’s foundations. As their numbers grew, Maronite peasants populated areas to the south and east of their heartland. They coexisted with and displaced others, such as the Druze and Shiites; in turn, the Maronite Church displaced feudal elites at the top of the mountain, so to speak. Holding vast properties, controlling educational institutions, enjoying close ties with the West and deploying the power of the pulpit, the Church developed and pushed an increasingly sophisticated political vision: Lebanon as a homeland for the Lebanese—namely Maronites, other Christians, and necessary partners. As empires gave way to states, the Maronites made their Lebanon. In Beirut, Maronites interacted with their Muslim and Greek Orthodox counterparts to give Lebanon its capital city and political-merchant elite. The Maronites’ convergence with France gave Lebanon its borders; their subsequent convergence with Sunnis and the British gave Lebanon its independence. And, in a sense, Maronite political ambitions—unfolding in an Islamic legal and political setting—gave Lebanon the constitutional order that has defined its republic.
To be sure, the history’s a bit histrionic. But if the Maronites weren’t unique, they were certainly a step ahead.
So what about the Maronite malaise?
During the Lebanese civil war, the Maronites may have saved “their” republic, but they lost primacy within it. In the post-war period, the Maronites may have united to rid Lebanon of its Syrian overlords, but they fought over everything else. After the Cedar Revolution of 2005, the Maronites may have gained allies for Lebanon, but they lost a common cause.
Now, the Maronites adhere to two visions, rally around two chieftains and venerate two patriarchs. Worshiping in two Churches, they struggle for two Lebanons that are truly one and the same.
Some—too hopeful—believe ties with the West are natural and valuable; they believe that minorities should engage with, and not wall off, surrounding peoples. Made for the moment, their chieftain cannot escape his past. Clinging to the memory of a patriarch whose leadership cannot and need not continue, they celebrate a Church without critiquing it because they’ve invested far too much in its edifice.
Others—too bitter—believe the West has betrayed them before and will do so again; they believe minorities should converge and cooperate to keep the regional majority at bay. Made by his past, their chieftain cannot reconcile with the moment. Rallying around a patriarch with the ambitions of a king and the talents of a mayor, they defend a Church they once desecrated because their own dissonance is more tolerable under the new vicar.
None of these Maronites have a president. Since the civil war’s close, they’ve yet to see a statesman emerge. Or maybe they’ve yet to allow it.
Those who should have been presidents—Michel Mouawad, Nassib Lahoud, Butros Harb—never stood a chance. Occupiers and complicit elites stifled them to survive. Meanwhile, those who have been presidents—Elias Hrawi, Emile Lahoud, and Michel Suleiman—never stood for anything. They stifled themselves to ascend.
The Maronite malaise, however, runs deeper. Occupation, tutelage, foreign intrigue and internal divisions have long characterized—and helped create—Lebanon. For the first time in centuries, however, the Maronites offer no ideas, no initiatives and no leadership. In the last five years, they’ve failed to choose a president, agree on an electoral law, secure expatriate rights, push for women’s rights, craft a unified defense posture, converge on foreign policy or push for the more liberal order they once championed.
Having long since lost the driver’s seat in Lebanon, the Maronites aren’t even in the passenger cabin; they’re in the trunk. Without reinvigorating their community or giving hope to its individuals, the Maronites are merely betting that others will “equalize down.” After all, the Maronites aren’t unique in their malaise—just another step ahead.
This is the first in a two-part series on the “Maronite Malaise.” Next week, we will publish a plan to revive the community—for its own sake and for that of Lebanon.
**Anthony Elghossain is an attorney for a global law firm based in Washington, DC. He blogs at Page Lebanon.(He’s a Maronite—and somehow proud, reluctant, and indifferent about that.)
 

Report: Mamlouk Sent Hizbullah New List of Assassination Targets
Naharnet /A top Syrian security official has recently sent Hizbullah a list of Lebanese political and military personalities targeted for assassination, the Kuwaiti al-Seyassah newspaper reported on Sunday.
The daily quoted a Gulf diplomat in Abu Dhabi as saying that the list, which includes 13 names, was sent by Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk, who has been charged by a Lebanese military court of involvement along with ex-Information Minister Michel Samaha in a terror plot to destabilize Lebanon. Arrest warrants in absentia were issued on Monday against Mamlouk and his aide known only by his first name as Adnan. A Gulf intelligence agency informed Lebanese security apparatuses several days ago about the list that was provided by a suspect arrested in the UAE, the diplomat said. The Lebanese suspect struck a deal with UAE authorities to provide the names in return for his release and deportation to a country of his choice, he said. The list reportedly includes the names of al-Mustaqbal lawmakers Ahmed Fatfat, Nuhad al-Mashnouq, Khaled al-Daher, Moeen al-Merehbi and former general prosecutor Saeed Mirza. Other names on the list are MP Marwan Hamadeh, who was the target of an assassination attempt in 2004, Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea and opposition lawmaker Butros Harb. Geagea escaped gunfire at his residence in Maarab last year while Harb was also the target of an assassination plot that was thwarted when the residents of a building where he has an office in Badaro saw suspects placing a bomb in the elevator.Other well known March 14 opposition officials on the list are al-Mustaqbal movement chief ex-PM Saad Hariri, who is in Paris for over a year, and Phalange MP Sami Gemayel, who was reportedly warned by security forces on several occasions that he could be the target of an assassination attempt. Two other army generals are on the list, al-Seyassah said, adding that they are tipped to succeed army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji. Late last year, reports said that Interior Minister Marwan Charbel received a list of 15 names targeted for assassination.

Israel Air Force now holds key to fate of Damascus, Assad regime
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 9, 2013
The Syrian rebels’ hyped up “Great Confrontation” to capture Damascus the capital has ended in a draw with Bashar Assad’s army like all their previous offensives in recent months. They failed to break through to the heart of the capital past the powerful Syrian army’s 4th Division standing in their path under the command of Gen. Maher Assad, the president’s brother. The rebels also lost their position on the Damascus-Aleppo highway. But amid heavy battles with the division's troops, the rebels are still clinging to the southern suburbs of Damascus.
The Syrian capital (1.9 million inhabitants) is therefore the second city after Aleppo (2.3 million) to be divided between the combatants.
debkafile’s military sources report that, notwithstanding the bitter fighting, the flow of refugees fleeing Syria has slowed down substantially, as many choose life in war zones over the wretched conditions prevailing in Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian refugee camps, where rudimentary essentials such as food, clean water, heating and basic medical services are lacking for the hundreds of thousands of dispossessed Syrians. Adding to these horrors, some Syrian families are said to be selling their daughters for food.
The Syrian outward refugee movement now tends to be internal, people in embattled areas seeking asylum in regions outside the war zones, such as the Druze Mountains southeast of the Golan and Kurdish areas in the north.
Since the Israeli air strike on the Syrian military complex of Jamraya on Jan. 30, Syria’s warring sides have been looking over their shoulders to assess Israel’s moves before embarking on the next stage of their contest because of two considerations:
1. debkafile’s military sources report that when the rebels first looked like breaking through to the heart of Damascus in the early part of their offensive – and so forcing Syrian President Bashar Assad to flee the capital – he ordered his army’s 4th Division tanks and short-range surface missiles to be armed with chemical weapons. They were to be used if the city’s defenses were breached. This would have made the battle for Damascus the first Syrian war engagement to deploy chemical weapons in combat.
The only military force close enough to prevent this happening and destroying the forces wielding chemical arms was the Israel Air Force. Its intervention would have been critical in giving the rebels victory.
2. Ever since the Jamraya episode, Lebanon military sources report Israel Air Force fighters and surveillance planes are conducting over flights almost every day.
According to our military sources, the Israeli aircraft are densely deployed over Syria’s borders with Israel, Jordan and Lebanon, to guard against two eventualities, which the Netanyahu government is bound to preempt:
a) Information has reached US and Israeli intelligence that Bashar Assad has vowed to his close circle that he will make Israel pay for Jumraya.
b) Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has directed the Syrian ruler to make every possible effort to transfer to Hizballah in Lebanon the batch of Iran-supplied sophisticated weapons stored in Syria. This directive was handed to Assad by Iran’s National Security Director Saeed Jalilee when they met in Damascus last Sunday, Feb. 3.
All the parties concerned understand that Israel is just as determined to block this transfer as Tehran and Damascus are resolved to get it through.
In view of these challenges and their potential for an armed clash, Israel is keeping an eagle eye on every twist and turn of Assad’s forces in Damascus for any indications of the onset of chemical warfare or traffic on the move toward the Lebanese border with Hizballah’s weapons. The Syrian ruler for his part is busy hatching schemes for keeping this arms traffic out of the electronic sight of the Israel Air Force, whereas the Syrian rebels are laying plans for provoking a clash between the Syrian army and the Israeli air force to provide them with an opportune moment for bringing their “great confrontation” in Damascus to a successful conclusion.

Bulgaria: Iran didn't recall envoy over Burgas probe
By JPOST.COM STAFF, BENJAMIN WEINTHAL, JERUSALE 02/10/2013/Sofia News Agency quotes Foreign Ministry spokesman saying that Iranian ambassador's term is over, new envoy to arrive day after.Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry on Sunday denied media reports that Iran was slated to recall it's ambassador to Sofia over the findings of the country's investigation that implicated Hezbollah in the Burgas terror attack, the Sofia News Agency reported. "That's not true. The term of Iran's ambassador to Sofia expires at the end of this week. A new envoy, who was appointed months ago, will arrive in Bulgaria on the next day," the news agency quoted Bulgarian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vessela Cherneva as saying to TV channel Evropa. The Bulgarian media reported over the weekend that Iran’s ambassador Gholamreza Bageri will leave Bulgaria’s capital - Sofia - and the Iranian government will downgrade its diplomatic relations with Bulgaria. The alleged diplomatic fissure was first reported by the online edition of 24 Chasa daily, according to the English language Bulgarian wire service Sofia News Agency. Bageri stated at a Friday press conference that the Burgas attack has "nothing to do with Iran."
Bulgaria's interior minister, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, accused two members of the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah of carrying out a bomb attack in the seaside resort of Burgas, which resulted in the killing of five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian Muslim bus driver. The explosion caused injuries to over 30 Israeli tourists.
The Bulgarian press reported that Bageri commented that Bulgarian-Iranians relations have been friendly prior to the Burgas attack. US and Israeli intelligence officials said in July that the terror act was a joint Hezbollah-Iran operation. Lebanon’s prime minister Najib Mikati said he would he assist the Bulgarians in their investigation. Two of the suspects lived in Lebanon and it is unclear if arrest warrants were issued and if the two operatives are still in Lebanon. The Jerusalem Post learned that Bulgaria has attempted multiple times over the years to compel the Lebanese authorities to extradite criminal suspects but Lebanese authorities have refused.

Bulgaria asks for help probing anti-Israeli attack
February 09, 2013/Daily Star
SOFIA: Bulgaria has asked Australia, Canada, Israel and Lebanon for help investigating last year's bus bombing that killed six people, officials from its interior ministry said.
"The investigation is entering a new stage: collect direct evidence on the perpetrators of the attack," a top ministry official, Kalin Gueorguiev, said Saturday.
"Requests regarding the criminal investigation have been sent to several countries including Canada, Australia and Israel," he told private Nova television.
Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov said on Friday that a request had also been sent to Lebanon, where the bomber's two suspected accomplices live.
He spoke a day after revealing that the bomber who killed five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian bus driver at Burgas Airport on Bulgaria's Black Sea coast last July had not intended to die.
The man "was not a kamikaze but only meant to put the ... explosive device in the baggage compartment of the bus and detonate it later from afar," he told reporters.
Tsvetanov said the two suspected accomplices had been identified as Australian and Canadian passport holders who "belonged to the military wing of Hezbollah".
Citing sources close to the case, the Standart daily reported Saturday that Bulgaria had asked Lebanon to arrest and interrogate the identified suspects.
It added that Sofia had asked Australia to confirm the identity of one of the suspects who had lived in Bulgaria under the false name of Brian Jameson and allegedly received a wire transfer from the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah. Canada has already confirmed the identity of the other suspect who went by the false name of "Ricco" in Bulgaria and had lived in Vancouver from age eight to 12.
The bomber's name is still not known, with his DNA and fingerprints failing to find matches in international databases. Investigators also believe a fourth person was involved.
Israel had immediately blamed Iran and its "terrorist proxy" Hezbollah for the attack.
Iran has denied any involvement, while Hezbollah denounced Israel for waging an "international campaign" against it, without specifically addressing the bombing

Yadlin: Israel will act on any Syria arms transfers
By JPOST.COM STAFF 02/10/2013 03:47 INSS director to 'Washington Post': Israel will act on transfers from Syria to Lebanon; cautions each strike raises escalation risk. Any time Israel will have reliable intelligence that this is going to be transferred from Syria to Lebanon, it will act," the director of the Institute for National Security Studies, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, told the Washington Post on Saturday.
Yadlin told the paper that Israeli responses to potential weapons transfers may not happen automatically, but "as the Syrian army becomes weaker and Hezbollah grows more isolated because of the loss of its Syrian patron, it makes sense that this will continue." According to Yadlin, there are four types of weapons whose transfer to militant groups would not be tolerated: advanced air defense systems, ballistic missiles, sophisticated shore-to-sea missiles and chemical weapons, the Washington Post quoted him as saying.
Yadlin cautioned that every Israeli strike would raise the risk of escalation. "The decision makers have to reevaluate every time," Yadlin warned. "It’s not a mathematical equation," the Washington Post quoted Yadlin as saying.
Last week, the Lebanese Army claimed 12 Israel Air Force planes flew over Lebanon between Thursday and Friday. According to the army, the IAF jets entered Lebanese airspace at 10:30 p.m. and flew over various parts of the country, finally departing at 1:15 a.m.
The army also said that the Israeli reconnaissance planes flew over the Nakoura area in southern Lebanon for several hours.
The report log ends on December 31, and thus does not address the possible use of Lebanese airspace in a strike on a Syrian weapons cache on January 31, which has been attributed to Israel.
US officials have said that the weapons destroyed in the alleged IAF strike were SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles and launchers headed for Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The transfer of those weapons would constitute a violation of Resolution 1701.

Alawites Not Responsible for Assad’s Survival
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
I read Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki’s statements to Asharq Al-Awsat more than once because he addresses a number of sensitive issues very frankly and it is not often that a politician reveals his thoughts to others.
He knowingly spoke of Syria, where he lived for many years when he was an opposition figure. He said he was not surprised by the path of the ongoing struggle and that he was not surprised by the regime’s ability to survive. He also said that during a visit to Washington he predicted this outcome during talks with the US president, vice president, and the then secretary of state. Maliki revealed that they thought Bashar Al-Assad would fall within two months, while he assured them that Assad would not fall even after two years. Why? Maliki claims that the regime in Syria is a sectarian one; the presence of Alawites in power provides a safety net for the sect and if they were ousted they could all be wiped out. The Iraqi prime minster believes the Alawites are fighting because they have to, because of their survival instinct, and that is why the regime has remained in power.
Although Maliki’s assessment of the regime’s resolve, entrenched by the Alawites, is correct, it is not true that Assad has survived for all this long time, amid the destruction, because the Alawites are more united and determined or, as he put it, because they are in a state of desperation. No. Although his sect is an important factor behind Assad’s survival in power, it is not the reason why his regime is still standing. The real reason is clear; Assad’s regime is fighting with the help of Russia and China. It is confronting a huge popular uprising of millions of people who lack both protection and support. These people are fighting with primitive weapons and confronting warplanes and tanks with rifles. Such a war never results in a landslide victory, and indeed there may never be a decisive outcome.
Maliki and the Dawa party fought Saddam Hussein for 20 years, but they did not succeed in seizing one inch of Iraq because the country’s borders were closed and their weapons were inadequate. When Saddam fell, he fell because of the “American Armada”. Assad’s regime has not remained afloat because the Alawites have stood by him, far from it. They only stood by Assad after the saw his success in garnering Russia and China’s support, and in neutralizing the Western countries and the Vatican, alleging that a sectarian war was being carried out against the Christians and Druze and that the revolution was seeking to establish an extremist religious regime.
The rebels have only received a little from Turkey and barely anything from Jordan; they are truly exposed. They carry primitive weapons with fighters sharing the same rifle, and when ammunition runs out they are forced to withdraw from the sites they have captured.
Saddam fell easily in 2003 because America, the world’s superpower, put an end to him in eight days. Previously, Saddam survived for eight years when Iran fought him and killed a million without success. What I mean is that the balance of power is not only entrenchment, determination and faith. The Afghan mujahedeen expelled the Soviets with “Stinger” missiles that paralyzed the Russian warplanes, with the massive aid of advanced Western weapons. Likewise the Viet Cong in Vietnam, with generous Chinese backing, were able to overthrow the pro-US regime while the liberation movement in Chechnya failed against the Russians because it was isolated.
Today, the Syrians are fighting a security-dominated and suppressive regime that resembles all fascist dictatorships. However, it cannot be labeled sectarian, as Maliki says, because Sunni and Christian pockets are fighting alongside Assad because they share the same interests or fears.
Both sides are fighting tirelessly. It is an absurdly bloody conflict because of the hesitance of the international community, and we are now facing the biggest massacre of the 21st century. We have not known of a war where only one party uses warplanes, tanks, and artillery on a daily basis to shell cities and kill thousands of civilians month after month. Show me one such scene from our modern history.
What Maliki says of the Alawites’ heroism is not true and is not even important. The fact is that without Iran and Russia’s generous support, the Assad regime would run out of ammunition and fuel for its tanks and warplanes.
However, what Maliki did not deny—or did not speak of for that matter—was the end of the war. He knows it well; Assad’s regime in Damascus will fall no matter how long the struggle takes.

Prince Turki bin Salman New SRMG Chairman
Riyadh, Asharq Al-Awsat—Prince Turki bin Salman has been named chairman of the Saudi Research and Marketing Group (SRMG), succeeding Prince Faisal bin Salman who was recently appointed governor of Medina province.SRMG's Board of Directors yesterday announced that the changes were approved in a board meeting last Thursday in Riyadh. At the meeting, the board members acknowledged Prince Faisal's efforts in leading SRMG to achieve numerous important accomplishments during his 10 year tenure. SRMG is the parent company of Asharq Al-Awsat. Prince Turki's tenure as chairman for the current session extends to April 30, 2015, the board said. The appointment will be put up for approval at the next regular General Assembly meeting. Prince Turki was born in Riyadh in 1987. He holds a bachelor degree in marketing from King Saud University and he is currently the chairman of Tharawat Holding Company. Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Shubaily has been appointed SRPC board of trustees' member and secretary-general. Established in 2008, SRPC board of trustees is first of its kind in the Arab media in terms of its structure, mission and powers. The board supports professional independence of the group's publications in line with its policy of separating management from the editorial section. It plays an effective role in the selection of editors in chief of the company's publications and their deputies.

Asharq Al-Awsat Interview: Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari
By Sawsan Abu-Husain
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat—Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari believes that national dialogue is the only way to end all manifestations of anger in Iraq and is the key to achieving political accord.
In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat Zebari discusses the results of the recently held Munich security conference and international and US stands on the Syrian crisis, as well as rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.
The following is the full text of the interview:
[Asharq Al-Awsat] You recently participated in the Munich conference on world security. What were the results of the conference?
[Zebari] The importance of this meeting lies in the fact that it presented a new vision of international moves and international decision-making in the future. The United States participated in this conference effectively. It was represented by Vice President Joe Biden who presented the new administration's view on addressing various issues.
In fact, however, there will be no fundamental change in the US Administration's policy in the coming period. All delegates participated in the conference effectively. An elite group of officials of Western nations, security agencies, defense ministers, intelligence and national security agencies attended the conference.
The conferees discussed a number of issues, including energy and the United States' huge technological advance in the production of Shale gas and oil. This will change energy production in the world as regards the world's need for oil. And in 10 years' time, the United States will export oil and gas and be self-sufficient. There is huge progress by US technology in this respect, and it will reduce the United States' dependence on the Arab states' oil in the future.
The other subject was the Euro crisis and its effect on the economies of the world and the region, in addition to the Syrian crisis and its effect on all states of the region. Also, the French intervention in Mali was one of the main issues that were discussed.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Was there a visible change in the international stand concerning the Syrian crisis?
[Zebari] The new development was the Chief of the Syrian National Coalition Dr Moaz Alkhatib’s participation in the conference. Alkhatib presented an initiative to hold conditional dialogue with the Syrian regime and held bilateral meetings with Sergey Lavrov, US Vice President Biden, and Joint UN-Arab Envoy Lakhdar Ibrahimi. However, a four-way meeting did not take place. Thus, we cannot say that something was achieved. In fact, all conferees asserted the already known stands.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] After the Munich conference, do you
Still believe that the Syrian crisis will be resolved by spring?
[Zebari] The United States' policy on Syria is currently under review. The question that was asked in Munich was how the United States can propose solutions and help the parties overcome the difficulties. Some Europeans and other important officials called for an international move by the UN Security Council to resolve the Syrian crisis.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Does this mean that the UN Security Council should approve Lakhdar Ibrahimi's report and pass a resolution under Chapter Seven binding both parties in Syria to a ceasefire?
[Zebari] Thus far, no agreement has been reached. The issue was discussed, and we reached a conclusion to go back to the Geneva document as a framework together with certain amendments or improvements. To date, however, some people do not agree on resorting to Chapter Seven.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you mean Russia and China?
[Zebari] Yes. These two states persist in their stands. Accordingly, the Syrian crisis will regrettably continue with this level of violence and killing in the absence of any prospect for a solution. All parties are frustrated for several reasons. The first reason is that there is no international desire to act, and this is what we pointed out in the beginning. We said that the Syrian crisis may have broken out at a time when world and regional balance of power was changing. This was one of the topics discussed at the Munich summit.
The conferees supported the French intervention in Mali, but not all Europeans agreed on this intervention. There were disagreements over the size of the intervention, the way it was carried out, and the size of assistance by other European states. Nevertheless, all the conferees asserted that the French decision to intervene was a bold one. This shows that action may be carried out if there is a will. Also, there was a view at the conference that the aim of the French intervention in Mali was to fight against terrorist and extremist groups. But there was a question that if intervention in Mali took place, why there was no intervention in Syria.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] And what was the answer to that question?
[Zebari] No one has the answer.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What is the Western nations' view of developments in the capitals of the so-called Arab spring states?
[Zebari] They believe that the Al-Qaeda Organization will become active in all neglected areas of the world, that is to say, when states lose control of security. When ignorance and poverty prevail in an area, Al-Qaeda groups establish presence there. What happened in Mali was that some of these groups, which previously operated in Libya, and Libyan weapons moved into Mali in large numbers. These groups joined Al-Qaeda there, so that they may secure a larger share of the donations. And these groups might move to Algeria or Egypt.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you expect US Aid to Arab spring nations to continue?
[Zebari] They speak about supporting democracy and transition. This aid will continue, but in my assessment, the challenges and problems have increased. A cure to these problems depends on the development of these states and their societies and the way they will build their political regimes. There are problems in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and in our country Iraq.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What is the crisis that Iraq is currently going through?
[Zebari] I continue to believe that Iraq was ahead of the Arab spring states in its revolution. It made reforms, wrote a constitution, held elections, and achieved transition. However, the reason for the crisis in Iraq, demonstrations, disagreements, and other forms of problems is the absence of an impartial mediator to reach a settlement or agreements to prevent the crisis from deteriorating.
In the past, we suffered serious political, security, and constitutional crisis but there were local and international mediators to achieve reconciliation and include more Iraqis in the political process. Among these mediators was the [Shiite] religious authority in Al-Najaf Al-Sayyid Al-Sistani. He played a role in mediation efforts, particularly when disagreements emerged over the constitution. And he spoke loudly to prevent any deterioration of the situation when dealing with the issues of sectarianism and resistance. But these mediation efforts abated now.
The other point is that whenever a Sunni-Shiite tension arose in Iraq, Kurdish leaders intervened to bridge the gap and called for dialogue. President [of the Kurdistan Region] Masud Barzani intervened to resolve a disagreement over the formation of a government in the past and he intervened on many occasions. Currently, we do not have such initiatives. Besides, we see that all other leaders are party to the conflict. Therefore, it is difficult to choose one of them to mediate.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] And in your opinion what is the solution?
[Zebari] The United Nations is there, but there is disagreement over its role. The positive thing is that, in spite of these sit-ins and demonstrations, the confrontations have not reached the point of using force and violence and the security forces did not intervene. When initial signs of violence emerged on two occasions, the forces withdrew from the demonstration areas.
On the other hand, the government is currently taking some reform measures, including the release of male and female detainees from prisons, review of cases regarding seizure of funds, lifting restrictions on the remnants of the former regime, paying salaries to the awakening council members who fought against Al-Qaeda. All these measures are in progress. These are legitimate demands, but the question is whether the crisis will be resolved. In my assessment, all these issues cannot be addressed without a serious national political dialogue.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Can the Arab League act as an impartial mediator, especially in the issue of dialogue, as it did in the past?
[Zebari] To be honest, the Arab League offered help, and the secretary general, Nabil Elaraby, spoke to me officially. He said that the Arab League is ready to help but only at request and agreement by the Iraqi Government.
Also, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the United Nations expressed the same desire. Thus, there are options, and the situation has not reached the point of estrangement and clash. All political leaders are ready for dialogue, but there is no mediator who can bring all parties together. This is the main problem in the Iraqi situation.
There is another point: Whenever a political disagreement emerges, acts of violence and terrorism increase, and this problem needs to be resolved. It can be said that, even though there is a desire for a solution and efforts are exerted, the situation remains really tense and it affects the government's performance and endorsement of the budget (this year's budget). This budget is important. It amounts to $119 billion. Therefore, we have always said that the Syrian crisis cannot be kept inside the Syrian border.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you mean the crisis in Syria had a great effect on Iraq's current problems?
[Zebari] In my assessment, it has a great effect because most of the areas where people are angry and hold demonstrations are in the western provinces, Al-Anbar, Salah al-Din, Al-Fallujah, and others, that are close to the Syrian border.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Is there any new move in developing relations with Saudi Arabia?
[Zebari] Surely we share a view on opening a new chapter and achieving full cooperation with Saudi Arabia in all spheres.
During Iraq's participation in the development summit in Riyadh, the Iraqi delegation held useful meetings with Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz, Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, and the Interior Minister. All these meetings were good and positive.
We believe that there is a need to review the bilateral relations that must not be reduced to a routine relationship. We agreed on the importance of implementing a series of confidence-building measures on issues including the detainees who are held in both Iraq and Saudi Arabia and we passed an agreement in this regard in the Iraqi parliament. This agreement will help resolve this issue.
Also, agreement was reached to open border crossings between the two countries beginning with the Arar Crossing because most of the Saudi exports to Iraq enter via Kuwait and Jordan.
On a separate issue, we agreed to correct all unclear reports published by the media and to coordinate on many regional issues, such as the Syrian crisis and security of the Gulf. In addition, we agreed to continue to communicate and coordinate to complete the process of diplomatic representation with the appointment of a resident Saudi ambassador to Iraq. Thus, we sensed a new spirit prevailing in the bilateral relations.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] How about relations with Kuwait?
[Zebari] Our relationship with Kuwait is proceeding very positively. We recently reached a number of agreements, including an agreement to finally settle the issue of the Kuwaiti Airlines. Besides, the Kuwaiti National Assembly ratified a very important agreement to organize navigation in Khawr Abdullah. On the other hand, we have security teams operating on the ground to fix land border markers. So, we are moving in the right direction, and our relations are good.

Asharq Al-Awsat Interview: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
By Abdul Sattar Hatita and Sawsan Abu-Husain
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat—Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of a diplomatic function in Cairo that was also attended by Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi and a number of senior Egyptian politicians.
The Iranian President told Asharq Al-Awsat, “We love Egypt and want to establish strong strategic ties with the country” adding that future bilateral relations will be “firm and broad and clear for all to see.”
Ahmadinejad refused to be drawn about Tehran’s support for Bashar al-Assad or the worsening crisis in Syria. This was prior to the Iranian president escaping a failed attack—the second of his controversial visit to Egypt—at the same diplomatic function. This was held at the home of Iranian diplomat Mojtaba Amani on Thursday, reportedly to commemorate the anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.
Asharq Al-Awsat asked the Iranian president for his view of the proposals put forward by the regional states—particularly Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey—towards resolving the Syrian crisis. Ahmadinejad replied, “I am confident that our brothers in Saudi Arabia will be happy with any positive steps regarding the Syrian situation, and I do not see any evidence from them that they will not welcome this.”
Commenting on the historic relations between the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the Iranian revolution, and how this has reflected on bilateral relations between Iran and post-Arab Spring Egypt, Ahmadinejad stressed, “Nobody can take away the bonds of affection between the two peoples, even in light of the presence of those who seek to ambush these relations to get rid of them and drive a wedge between us” adding, “We love Egypt.”
The Iranian President was also keen to clarify that he had exempted Egyptian tourists and traders from visa requirements to enter Iran in the hope that this will be reciprocated. He said that this program could be expanded to include scientists and academic, adding “the same applies to technical and technological cooperation with Egypt.”
Ahmadinejad had held a tense meeting with Al-Azhar Grand Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb last Wednesday. During this tense meeting, Egypt’s top Sunni cleric had scolded the Iranian president, calling on him not to meddle in Gulf Arab affairs and “respect Bahrain as a sisterly Arab state.” Commenting on this meeting, Ahmadinejad said, “We went there to achieve solidarity with our brothers, and we had a good discussion of the issues.”
He added, “It is self-evident, both in Iran and Egypt, that certain subjects or issues are raised by those with a narrow point of view . . . however we believe that we must agree on major objectives to achieve unity and solidarity, such as justice, peace and brotherhood . . . as well as in order to get rid of discrimination, tyranny, occupation and aggressions. Narrow-minded views only create more division. The devils want the believers (Muslims) to be preoccupied with small and narrow issues.”
He expressed his disappointment at being scolded by the Al-Azhar Grand Sheikh, saying “Our principles unite us, whereas these issues (mentioned by al-Tayeb) were political issues.” He added, “There are differences of opinion in every family. You cannot find two people who are exactly the same or who think in precisely the same way, and the same applies to the al-Azhar student body and professors.”
He added, “We will not be held prisoner or become a puppet in the hands of the enemy.”
Ahmadinejad also spoke about Iran’s refusal to negotiate with the US over the Iranian nuclear file, saying that Tehran refuses to negotiate while being pressured in this manner. He called on Washington to change its threat-based approach.
The Iranian president said, “If somebody threatened you with a cudgel to make you engage in dialogue, would you agree? Normally, the process of dialogue is based on mutual respect. If they (the Americans) correct their approach and discourse then everything will be fine.”
Despite affirming that Tehran does not interfere in the affairs of Bahrain, Ahmadinejad called on the Bahraini government to respect the will of the people. He said, “Freedom, justice, and respect are rights that belong to all peoples, and everybody has the right to elect their own governments, and Bahrain is not exempt from this.”
He added, “We have no involvement in Bahraini affairs, but we insist that the government must respect the rights of the Bahraini people.”
Following this interview, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was attacked for the second time during his first official trip to Egypt. This attack was all the more surprising in light of the heavy security presence. After a closed-door meeting with Egyptian politicians, including members of the National Salvation Front and the Muslim Brotherhood, Ahmadinejad was confronted by a man shouting pro-Syrian revolution slogans.
An Egyptian national, whose identity remains unknown, lunged towards the Iranian president shouting “Thugs, get out of our country.” Both Ahmadinejad and his attacker were immediately surrounded by security. As the Egyptian was dragged away, he reportedly shouted “Death to the butcher al-Assad” and “Death to Ahmadinejad.” He was handed over to Egyptian authorities.
This was the second time that Ahmadinejad has been attacked over the past week, with both attackers focusing on Tehran’s pro-Assad policy. A Syrian national had attempted to throw a shoe at the Iranian president as he left Cairo’s al-Hussein mosque following evening prayers on Wednesday. Footage shows a man striking out several times as Ahmadinejad is immediately surrounded by body-guards. The attacker reportedly denounced Ahmadinejad as a “coward” and was arrested following the incident.

Analysis: Iran and Egypt, elusive common ground
By ZVI MAZEL 02/10/2013/REUTERS/Egyptian Presidency/Handout /J.Post
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad came to Egypt ostensibly to take part in the summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation but in fact to look for ways to develop relations between Tehran and Cairo.
It was his third meeting with the Egyptian president Mohamad Morsi since he was elected in June 2012. Those meetings were held within the framework of international or Islamic summits but observers duly noted that both leaders embraced warmly and had lengthy discussions. They are obviously trying to put the bad blood of the Mubarak period behind them and to turn over a new leaf.
Iran did its best to topple Mubarak through the subversive activities of the Gama’a Islamiya which committed a series of terror operations during the last decade of the 20th century and was behind the failed 1995 assassination attempt on Mubarak in Addis Ababa.
Mubarak had chosen a resolutely pro-Western approach and enjoyed a close relationship with the United States as well as keeping to the peace treaty with Israel. He was the leader of the pragmatic front of Arab countries – Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Jordan and Morocco – against Iran.
When Tehran threatened Bahrain by declaring that it was in fact the 14th Iranian province, Mubarak immediately rushed to the country’s capital Manama to warn the Iranians there not to attempt anything against the small state.
The Egyptian president, together with the United States, was the powerful protector of the Gulf states against Iran.
Today, the “new, revolutionary Egypt” as Egyptian politicians and the media call it, is ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood and is changing tack.
“The new Egypt has no enemies,” proclaimed Nabil Elaraby, the first foreign minister after the fall of Mubarak, hinting that his words were meant for Iran.
Deeds soon followed words.
High-ranking Iranians visited Cairo, then ruled by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces; Iranian warships were allowed to transit through the Suez Canal on their way to a show of strength in the Mediterranean. Iran says over and over again that it wants better relations with Egypt and wishes to reestablish diplomatic ties. That was the message carried by the Iranian foreign minister who came to Cairo a few days ago.
According to the Kuwaiti daily Al-Qabas, there was another, secret visit some weeks ago. The head of al-Quds Force, the elite force of the revolutionary guards of Iran, had apparently been invited to demonstrate how to set up a special and elite unit – distinct from the army – faithful to President Mohamed Morsi’s regime. There have been reports in recent months to the effect that the Muslim Brotherhood was forming a special militia to protect the regime and tackle its opponents and that it was already operational.
Since the revolution there has been much talk about the need for Egypt to develop economic and commercial ties as well as tourism and air traffic with Iran. Both countries have much to gain from the move.
Together they number more than 160 million people. There have been promises of Iranian investments in industry, something Egypt badly needs. However, the new Egypt does not want hostile relations with a powerful regional player such as Iran.
The Muslim Brothers and their leader, Morsi, are still too caught up in the fraught political situation at home to develop an active foreign policy.
However they have hinted that they would like to set up an Arab/Islamic forum to coordinate and address regional issues to appease tensions in the region. This had been the motive behind Morsi’s proposal to form a committee of four – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran – to solve the Syrian crisis. It was short lived, as could have been expected since Turkey and Saudi Arabia quit over tensions with Iran. Morsi revived this initiative this week in Cairo but the Saudis refused to come. Riyadh and the Gulf states are deeply suspicious of Iranian subversive activities and its nuclear program; they accuse it of inciting Shi’ite minorities in the Gulf – such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – against the Sunni regimes.
They are not happy at the growing influence of Iran on Iraq, where power has shifted from Sunni to Shi’ite leaders following the Allied Intervention and withdrawal. Turkey is at loggerheads with Iran over the Syrian issue.
This does not deter the Muslim Brothers of Egypt from looking for a better understanding with Iran. They do not want a conflict with Tehran at a time when they are focused on their main goal which is to see movements affiliated with the Brotherhood, after their success in Egypt and Tunisia, taking over most of the Middle East. They have high hopes for success in Libya and Syria. They feel that they have been given a unique opportunity not likely to happen again. Morsi believes that Syrian President Bashar Assad will ultimately fall and does not want to see the United States or other Western countries launching a military intervention which would further destabilize the region. He mentions Syria as little as he can, and keeps a moderate tone while saying that Iran has a role to play. This is of course music to the ears of the ayatollahs.
The Egyptian president is convinced that some form of
accommodation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is possible.
Saudi Arabia also works at defusing tensions and has made several moves in that direction, such as letting Iranian warships on their way to the Suez Canal drop anchor in Jeddah, because “it was a training exercise and within the framework of good regional relations.”
King Abdullah warmly embraced Ahmedinejad when he came to the Islamic economic summit in Mecca last year. The fact is also that since the fall of Mubarak Egypt’s relations with the Gulf states have deteriorated; these countries are suspicious of the Muslim Brothers and fear their subversive activities. Recently the United Emirates have arrested a group of Muslim Brothers for allegedly plotting to overthrow the regime.
Still, many observers believe that the historical antagonism between Sunni and Shi’ite Islam will make it impossible for extremist Shi’ite Iran – which is working at imposing a Shi’ite regime over the Middle East through its proxies, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah – to find a common ground with the Muslim Brotherhood, the spearhead of Sunni extremism today. Al-Azhar’s Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, who met with Ahmedinejad in Cairo this week, warned him not to incite Shi’ite regimes against Sunni regimes. This was only to be expected from the Sunni cleric.
However political expediency and the Brothers’ foreign policy, together with their stubborn resolve to survive, are a stronger incentive to arrive at an understanding by focusing on fields in which they have common interests and avoiding thorny issues.
Iran, well aware of the shifting sands of the Middle East and bracing for the loss of its faithful ally Syria – making contact with Hezbollah more difficult – is eager not to be isolated and to find some form of agreement with Egypt until it can redefine its interests in the region.
Egypt must also take into consideration its relationship with the United States and the peace treaty with Israel. US President Barack Obama appears sympathetic to the Brotherhood. After his reelection he hastened to say that he would throw the full weight of his presidency behind efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue with Iran – though all options remain on the table. He would certainly not object to seeing Iran and Egypt find a compromise which would help the diplomatic efforts of America. Both the Brotherhood and Iran are hostile to Israel and want to see it disappear. However right now Morsi receives from Ahmadinejad the proverbial fig leaf he needs. The Iranian leader told Al-Ahram on February 6 that “Iran does not threaten to strike the Zionist enemy and develops its military capacities for defense purposes only.”
Israel should not bank on a declaration which was obviously intended to facilitate a possible alliance with Egypt without endangering that country’s links with the US.
Bottom line, diplomatic relations are yet to be formally restored, but the two heads of state have already met three times and many high-ranking Iranian officials have visited Cairo while Egyptian media do not seem hostile to the move. The elephant is in the room even if nobody appears to notice it.
**The writer, a fellow of The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is a former ambassador to Romania, Egypt and Sweden.
Correction: This article originally stated it was Ahmadinejad's third visit with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.