Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources/August 29/13

Hezbollah will attack Israel if strike aims to topple Assad

August 28, 2013/By Hussein Dakroub The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A massive military strike by the United States and its Western allies on Syria aimed at changing the balance of power in the country will likely trigger a swift intervention by Hezbollah, political analysts and sources close to the group said Tuesday. Hezbollah’s response will likely involve the firing of rockets into Israel, igniting the dormant front in south Lebanon, they added.
However, analysts and experts predicted a limited U.S.-led military operation against sites in Syria suspected of stockpiling chemical arms or materials.
A senior source close to Hezbollah told The Daily Star the party was unlikely to retaliate in case the U.S. and its Western allies carried out a punitive operation against Lebanon’s neighbor. But analysts warned that if the Western attack on Syria over its alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians was aimed at striking the Syrian army or toppling the regime of President Bashar Assad, this would prompt a retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah against Israel.
“In the event of a qualitative [Western military] strike that aims to change the balance of power in Syria, Hezbollah will fight on various fronts,” the senior source said.
“A large-scale Western strike on Syria will plunge Lebanon virtually and immediately into the inferno of a war with Israel,” the source said, clearly referring to the possibility of Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel.
“However, if the Western attack is limited to certain targets in Syria, then, Hezbollah will not intervene,” the source added.
Clouds of war are gathering over Syria amid signs that Western powers could attack the strife-torn country within days. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said U.S. forces in the region were “ready to go,” as Washington and its European and Middle Eastern partners honed plans to punish Assad for a chemical attack last week that killed hundreds of civilians in eastern Ghouta outside Damascus.
Washington said it already held Assad responsible for a “moral obscenity” and U.S. President Barack Obama would hold him accountable for it.
The Syrian government has denied using chemical weapons.
“I believe that if the [Western] strike is limited to one or two military targets in Syria, I doubt there will be any military reaction from Syria, Hezbollah, or Iran,” Abdallah Bou Habib, Lebanon’s former ambassador to the United States, told The Daily Star.
“The United States does not want a change in the regime in Syria like what happened in Iraq or Libya. They prefer an orderly political transition in Syria that would keep the military and the administrative establishment somewhat intact,” said Bou Habib, also the director of the Issam Fares Center for Lebanon, a Beirut-based think tank.“These goals in Syria will not allow for a long or wide war. Which means that a possible retaliation from Syria, Iran or Hezbollah is highly unlikely,” he added. “Given these goals, the U.S. is highly unlikely to launch a large-scale attack on Syria.”
However, in the event of a massive Western military assault on Syria, Bou Habib said that retaliation by Iran and Hezbollah would become highly possible.
“While Iran will attack U.S. and Gulf states’ [interests] in the region, Hezbollah will ignite the southern front by firing rockets into Israel,” he said.
Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese Army general, said he expected a limited military operation against Syria, though he added that no final decision had been made yet in this regard.
“The Americans have a bank of military targets, between 150 to 200 targets to strike in Syria. These include air defense bases, military airports, missile sites, the air bases command and the military command and control headquarters,” Jaber told The Daily Star.
He ruled out the possibility of airstrikes against military targets in Syria. “I expect a sea strike operation whereby the 6th Fleet in the Mediterranean will unleash Cruise and Tomahawk missiles at the set targets in Syria,” said Jaber, also the director of the Beirut-based think tank, the Middle East Center for Political Studies and Research.
Like other analysts, Jaber said Iran and Hezbollah were unlikely to retaliate for a limited Western assault on Syria.
“But if Syria for some reason responded by firing rockets into Israel, then Hezbollah would feel free to launch rockets on the Jewish state, in a development that would spark a regional war,” he said.
Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, said the decision for a limited attack on Syria had been made and it would take place within a few days. He ruled out the possibility of airstrikes, saying military targets in Syria would be attacked with Tomahawk missiles from U.S. warships in the Mediterranean.
“Tomahawk missiles will target, among other things, the location of the 4th Division in Damascus,” Khashan told The Daily Star, referring to the elite military division commanded by Maher Assad, brother of the Syrian president. “The aim is to punish the regime in Damascus for the alleged chemical attack on Ghouta,” he added.
Khashan said the Western strike might also target Hezbollah positions in Syria after the Syrian opposition had provided U.S. Intelligence with maps about the party’s deployment in Syria.
He did not expect Hezbollah or Iran to retaliate whether the attack on Syria was limited or massive. “Hezbollah will not react in the south against Israel,” Khashan said. “In the event of a large-scale attack on Syria, neither Iran, nor Hezbollah will do anything except pep talk,” he added.
However, Khashan said there was a possibility that Iran might ask Hezbollah to take Western hostages in Lebanon in the event of a massive Western military strike.
But Talal Atrissi, an expert on Iran and Middle East affairs, disagreed with Khashan, predicting a retaliation from Tehran and Hezbollah against Israel if the Western assault was aimed at toppling the Assad regime.
He said he would expect a limited military strike to target “sites allegedly stockpiling chemical materials” in Syria rather than the Syrian army’s positions.
“There will be no response from Iran or Hezbollah if the [Western] attack targets only chemical plants or sites storing chemical materials,” Atrissi, a lecturer at the state-run Lebanese University, told The Daily Star.
“But if the Assad regime or the Syrian army is struck, this would expand the battle, opening the door to all eventualities and triggering a response from Iran and Hezbollah against Israel,” he said.
Atrissi added that the declared position of Iran and Hezbollah, key allies of the Assad regime, is to prevent the regime’s downfall. While Iran is a strategic ally of the Syrian regime, Hezbollah has sent fighters to join Assad’s forces in the war against armed rebels seeking to topple the regime.
Both Jaber and Khashan said the Western military strike was aimed at setting the stage for a political settlement to end two and a half years of bloody conflict in Syria that has killed more than 100,000 people.
“The Americans remain committed to a political solution to the Syrian conflict,” Khashan said. “That’s the reason the attack will be limited.”
Jaber, the retired Army general, spoke of what he called “a tacit agreement” between the U.S. and Russia over “a limited military operation that does not seek to topple the regime or destroy the Syrian army.”
“The aim of this operation is to achieve a breakthrough in the stalemate in the Syrian conflict in order to pave the way for peace negotiations,” Jaber said. “The operation is basically aimed at creating a military balance between the regime and the opposition in order to propel the two sides to the negotiation table,” he added.
 

Partial Israeli reserves call-up. US beefs up Qatar air base. Syria moves units into sheltered sites

http://www.debka.com/article/23228/-Partial-Israeli-reserves-call-up-US-beefs-up-Qatar-air-base-Syria-moves-units-into-sheltered-sites

DEBKAfile Special Report August 28, 2013/Ahead of the US strike on Syria, the Israeli security cabinet in special session Wednesday, Aug. 28, ordered the partial mobilization of select, qualitative IDF reserve forces: Rocket, Air Force, missile interception, Home Defense command and intelligence units. Anti-missile Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome systems were spread out more widely than ever before across the country. US and Syria wound up last military preparations for the US strike. Barring last-minute hold-ups, debkafile’s military sources report the American operation is scheduled to start Friday night, early Saturday Aug. 30-31.
In the past 24 hours, the US Air Force finished a major buildup at the big US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. B-1B bombers and F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets were brought over from other US Mid East air facilities on the Omani island of Masirah and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. These squadrons were not assigned to the US military strike against Syria, say our military sources, but will stand ready to move in should unforeseen complications in the course of the US missile assault on Syria call for the introduction of extra assets from outside. Israeli officials and spokesmen continued to insist Wednesday on low expectations of a Syrian counter-offensive against their country. Nevertheless, the new US air force reinforcements in Qatar will stand ready to rush to the aid of US allies - Israel, Jordan and Turkey - in the event of their coming under Syrian Scud attack.
On the opposite side, the Syrian army Tuesday started scattering personnel, weapons and air assets to safe places to reduce their exposure to damage and losses from US assaults.
Our military sources report that personnel, tanks and artillery of the Syrian Army’s 4th and Republican Guard Divisions, which are held responsible for the Aug. 21 chemical attack on civilians, were being moved into fortified shelters built last year against potential foreign military intervention. Syrian army command centers in Homs, Hama, Latakia and the Aleppo region were also being split up and dispersed, after a tip-off to Syrian and Russian intelligence that they would be targeted by the US strike.
Syria has also transferred its Air Force fighter planes, bombers and attack helicopters to fortified shelters which are armored against missile and air attack. In Israel, the IDF Wednesday installed two Iron Dome missile interceptors in the northern “Valleys” region and Safed in addition to Haifa. Another Iron Dome battery was posted in the heavily populated central district. Arrow, Patriot anti-missile missiles, as well as Iron Domes, have been deployed more widely across Israel than ever before. debkafile’s military sources report that Israel’s Arrow and Patriot interceptors are linked to the US missile shield with which their operation is synchronized. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel was ready for any scenario. Although it takes no part in the Syrian civil war crisis, Israel would not hesitate to fight back for any attempted attacks – and would do so forcefully. Wednesday morning, the machinery for distributing gas masks to the population broke down under the pressure of demands to distribution centers across the country. The Homeland Ministry’s website crashed. Former Interior Minister Ellie Yishay complained of a shortage of protective masks due to budget cuts. He said there are only enough to supply 40 percent of the population.

Options of War
By: Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat
It is not strange that the most important point in the Russian foreign minister’s speech, in which he attacked Western statements on the possibility of military intervention in Syria without a UN mandate, is that Moscow will not be involved in fighting. Sergey Lavrov’s statement that came in response to questions about his country’s stance in the event of an attack on Syria is a clear message that shows the limits of Russia’s support to Assad and that Moscow will not be involved in a military conflict to protect his government. The use of chemical weapons against civilians in Syria, and the attendant footage of children’s corpses, has put all sides in an embarrassing situation. On the one hand, it embarrassed Assad’s allies who blamed the opposition for the horrific crime. On the other, pro-opposition forces—reluctant to be involved in the ongoing conflict—could not be silent lest they lose credibility, especially that their long-standing reluctance helped escalate the crisis, which has taken on a bloody dimension which cannot be accepted anymore.
Currently, there is almost a war atmosphere. This is evidenced by the statements, movements, rapid regional and international meetings—whether political or military ones—and affirmations from several Western capitals on the possibility of taking action within the framework of a broad international alliance or NATO. In the event of a war, the almost three-year-old Syrian crisis will take a new turn whose calculations are still under review. Such atmosphere is accompanied by hectic diplomatic steps particularly between Moscow and Western capitals. This is reminiscent of the atmosphere prior to Iraq war in 2003, signaling the mounting tension and the gravity of international stances. But the circumstances of the Syrian crisis are different from Iraq. In light of the situation on the ground, clearly the military options are not many. The majority of Western analysts argue that limited missile, plane or surgical strikes are likely to happen, targeting chemical weapons plants or the regime’s military infrastructure. Such steps will serve as a punishment or a warning to the regime against using chemical weapons again as well as remind it that it cannot continue its massacres without consequence. Analysts base their argument on the international community’s desire to avoid descending into an expensive, long-term involvement in Syria. The US president Barack Obama has made it clear when he spoke about the need to calculate the cost, as well as the absence of ground forces that will make it possible to launch a direct ground operation. This is to a great extent similar to what the former US president Bill Clinton did when he launched missile strikes on Al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan during the days of Taliban after elements of the group were discovered to be behind the attack on the USS Cole in the Yemen port of Aden in the 1990s. The strikes confused but did not wipe Al-Qaeda out in Afghanistan. Even the post-9/11 war in Afghanistan or the missile attacks on Al-Shifa pharmaceutical factory in Sudan failed to do so. In terms of the Syrian crisis, if a decision to pull the trigger is made, it will not resolve the situation on the ground. However, such a step may have consequences, perhaps most prominently opening the door for the fidgety elements within the regime to defect. If the military step managed to weaken the government’s military capabilities, it will open the door for more gains for the opposition to achieve on the ground, perhaps leading to a political solution to transfer power. Finally, the real steps remain the ones taken on the ground, especially by the opposition, which needs to show unity and serious political vision of Syria, as well as dispel Western fears of the radical elements that emerged recently.
**Ali Ibrahim is Asharq Al-Awsat's deputy editor-in-chief. He is based in London.
 

Pro-Hezbollah sheikh warns U.S. interests at risk if Syria hit
August 27, 2013/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: A pro-Hezbollah Sheikh warned Tuesday that U.S. interests in the Middle East region would be targeted should Washington sanction a strike against Syria. “Any [U.S.] strike against Syria would be met by harsh responses against U.S. interests in the region and against Israel directly,” said Sheikh Afif Nabulsi. Nabulsi’s comments came after a meeting with the Union of Beirut Associations.
The United States and other Western countries have signaled a preparedness to take potential military action against Syria over last week’s alleged chemical weapons attack outside Damascus. Russia warned Tuesday that any military intervention on the part of the United States in Syria could have "catastrophic consequences" for the region. Nabulsi warned that any strike against Syria could cause a regional or even an international war.
“Approaching Syria [militarily] would be like approaching a dangerous zone and a threat to regional and international security alike,” said Nabulsi. “Any defect to the present equation will cause a war that would begin from Syria, but no one knows where it could end,” he said. Nabulsi also received a cable from Iranian President Hasan Rouhani confirming “the Iranian Republic support to the great people of Lebanon.”
Separately, caretaker Foreign Minister Adnan Masnour warned that a possible war against Syria would affect the whole region. “In case a war is waged against Syria, this would have negative repercussions on the whole region,” Mansour told Sawt Al-Shaeb radio station. “I do not think that such a step would serve peace and stability in the region,” he said. The minister also said that Lebanon would respond to Israel in case it decides to take advantage of the regional situation and wage a war against Lebanon. “Lebanon will not stand idle in case Israel took advantage of the [possible] aggression against Syria and opened a front against Hezbollah in the south,” he said. Mansour said that “the resistance is ready to confront any [Israeli] aggression despite its participation in the fight in Syria.”

Syrian regime braces for punitive strike
August 28, 2013/Agencies
AMMAN/BEIRUT: Western forces could attack Syria within days, the United States and its allies have told rebels fighting President Bashar Assad, opening up new risks in a war that is spreading chaos across the Middle East. Participants at a meeting in Istanbul told Reuters that U.S. and other diplomats warned Syrian opposition leaders Monday to expect action that would punish Assad for alleged poison gas attacks – and to be ready to negotiate if his government sues for peace. The United States said its forces in the region were “ready to go,” but the White House insisted President Barack Obama was still considering various options, not just military force, and was not intent on bringing about “regime change” in Damascus. British Prime Minister David Cameron, anxious like Obama not to emulate the Afghan and Iraqi entanglements that beset their predecessors, said any strikes would be “specific,” a punishment for the use of chemical weapons, and would not drag the allies deeper into a war now well into its third year.
Cameron recalled parliament for a debate on Syria Thursday.
United Nations chemical weapons investigators, who finally crossed the frontline to take samples Monday, put off until Wednesday a second trip to the rebel-held suburbs of Damascus where activists say hundreds of civilians died a week ago. But while U.N. evidence of chemical warfare could bolster a Western argument for intervention in the face of likely Russian and Chinese opposition at the United Nations, Western leaders – and the Arab League – have already declared Assad guilty. Ahmad Jarba, president of the rebel Syrian National Coalition, met envoys from 11 countries, including Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, at an Istanbul hotel. The rebel leaders proposed targets for cruise missiles and bombing. One participant said: “The opposition was told in clear terms that action to deter further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime could come as early as in the next few days.” Planning appears to focus on air strikes as there is little public support in Western countries for troops to invade Syria.
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said: “We have moved assets in place to be able to fulfil and comply with whatever option the president wishes to take ... We are ready to go.” Syria, backed by regional power Iran, denies gassing its own people and said it would defend itself. Russia, Assad’s main arms supplier, opposes military action and has suggested that rebel forces may have released the poison gas. Firm opposition from permanent members of the U.N. Security Council all but rules out a U.N. mandate of the kind that gave legal backing to NATO airstrikes that helped Libyan rebels unseat Moammar Gadhafi two years ago. But Western officials say they do want to act within international law. Italy insisted any military strike against Syria must be authorized by the U.N. Security Council.
Foreign Minister Emma Bonino called the chemical attack a “war crime” but said her government wouldn’t support military action without U.N. Security Council authorization.
Moscow and Beijing accuse Western powers of using human rights complaints, such as in Libya, to meddle in sovereign states’ affairs.
White House spokesman Jay Carney insisted: “The options that we are considering are not about regime change. They are about responding to a clear violation of an international standard that prohibits the use of chemical weapons.” Echoing this, Britain’s Cameron told reporters: “This is not about getting involved in a Middle Eastern war or changing our stance in Syria or going further into that conflict. It’s about chemical weapons.
“Their use is wrong, and the world shouldn’t stand idly by.”In France, which played a major role in Libya, President Francois Hollande said he was “ready to punish” Assad for the gas attack, citing a 2005 U.N. provision for international action to protect civilians from their own government. Similar arguments were used by NATO to bomb Russian ally Serbia after the killing of civilians in the country’s then-province of Kosovo.
In an indication of support from Arab states that may help Western powers in the face of likely U.N. vetoes from Moscow and Beijing, the Arab League issued a statement holding Assad’s government responsible for the chemical attack. In Saudi Arabia, the rebels’ leading regional sponsor, Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, called for “a decisive and serious stand by the international community.”
Fears of international conflict in the Middle East also affected financial markets. Oil prices hit a six-month high and stocks fell around the world, notably in neighboring Turkey, as well as emerging economies that would suffer from a chill in trade. The Turkish government, a NATO member, called for action for what it called a “crime against humanity” that “cannot go unpunished.”
Obama, Cameron and Hollande face tough questions at home about how an intervention would end, whether they risk bolstering Assad if he were to ride out the assault and whether they risk handing power to anti-Western Islamist rebels if Assad were overthrown. The presence of Islamist militants, including allies of Al-Qaeda in the Syrian rebel ranks, has given Western leaders pause to think. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said U.S. strikes would help Al-Qaeda and called Western leaders “delusional” if they hoped to help the rebels reach a balance of power in Syria. “We have means of defending ourselves, and we will surprise them with these if necessary,” he said. Assad’s forces made little or no response to three attacks by Israel earlier this year that Israeli officials said disrupted arms flowing from Iran to Hezbollah.
The continued presence of United Nations experts in Damascus may be a factor holding back international military action. The experts came under fire in government-held territory Monday before reaching the rebel lines. They interviewed and took samples from survivors, though much evidence may have decayed. A U.N. statement said the investigators had put off a second visit to the affected areas until Wednesday to prepare better.
Opposition activists have said at least 500 people and possibly twice that many were killed by rockets laden with a chemical poison, possibly the nerve gas sarin or something similar. If true, it would be the worst chemical weapons attack since Saddam Hussein gassed thousands of Iraqi Kurds in 1988. Israelis have been claiming state-issued gas masks in case Syria responds to a Western attack by firing missiles at Israel, as Saddam did in 1991. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to “respond forcefully” to any attempt to target it. Western governments were besieged by conflicting advice. Tony Blair, who sent British troops into Afghanistan and Iraq alongside Americans led by George W. Bush, urged today’s leaders to stop their “hand-wringing” and act. Failure to intervene, he said, would leave Syria “mired in carnage,” a safer haven for Islamist militants than Afghanistan once was. But Gen. David Richards, until July the head of Britain’s armed forces, said “pin-prick” cruise missile strikes could aggravate rather than resolve the conflict, while more sweeping intervention was not on the cards. “The scale of involvement to make a decisive difference in Syria would be so huge that it is something that we, at the moment, cannot sensibly contemplate.”

Russia says West acting in Muslim world like 'monkey with a grenade'
August 27, 2013 /Agence France Presse/MOSCOW: Western countries are behaving in the Islamic world like a "monkey with a grenade," a Russian deputy prime minister said on Tuesday, as the United States and its allies mull the use of force against Syria. "The West behaves towards the Islamic world like a monkey with a grenade," Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who is known for his sharp tongue, wrote on Twitter.

Russian plane lands in Syria to deliver aid, evacuate citizens
August 27, 2013 /Agence France Presse/MOSCOW: A Russian cargo plane carrying food aid for Syria landed in the Mediterranean city of Latakia on Tuesday and would evacuate Russians wanting to leave the conflict-torn country, the emergencies ministry said. The Ilyushin-76 plane belonging to the Russian emergencies ministry landed in the Syrian port city with a cargo of 20 tonnes of humanitarian aid, largely conserves and sugar, emergencies ministry spokeswoman Irina Rossius said. On the return flight to Russia later Tuesday, the plane would take 180 citizens of ex-Soviet states wanting to leave Syria including 100 Russians, she added, quoted by Russian news agencies. "On the way back, the plane will take Russians and citizens of ex-Soviet states who have made clear a desire to leave the country," she said. The flight comes as expectations grow of Western military action against President Bashar al-Assad's regime over claims it used chemical weapons in an attack outside the Syrian capital last week. Russia has questioned the claims and warned such military action will have catastrophic consequences. Latakia is a Mediterranean port city whose region is dominated by the Alawite community, the Muslim sect to which Assad, his family and much of the regime's elite belong.

Syria behind north Lebanon bombings, suspect confesses: source
August 27, 2013 /By Youssef Diab/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: A suspect in custody over last week’s deadly car bombings in north Lebanon has confessed that Syrian intelligence was behind the attacks, a security source said Tuesday, and police released a sketch of a man also wanted in the case. Sheikh Ahmad Gharib, one of two suspects being interrogated in the Aug. 23 car bombs outside the Al-Taqwa and Al-Salam mosques in Tripoli, north Lebanon, confessed that the explosions were “directly planned by Syrian intelligence,” the source said. Gharib, after several hours of interrogation, also said he had prior knowledge of the attacks and their planning, the source added. At least 47 people were killed and more than 500 wounded in the car bombings outside the mosques in Tripoli, a city that has been the scene of frequent violence linked to the crisis in Syria.
Gharib’s arrest Saturday was due to his appearance in a surveillance video taken near Al-Salam Mosque at the time of the blast. Police are also questioning Sheikh Abdel-Razzak Hammoud in the case.
The period of their detention was extended Monday by two days after the two gave conflicting testimonies. Also Tuesday, police released a sketch of another suspect wanted over the Tripoli blasts, the latest in a series of car bombings in Lebanon that have escalated security fears in the country. The police sketch shows a man with a short beard in religious clothing. The man, according to the Internal Security Forces, is suspected of placing the rigged vehicle outside the Al-Taqwa Mosque. The police urged citizens to provide authorities with any information about the suspect and his location by calling the hotline 1788, adding that informants would remain anonymous.
Investigations into the explosions outside the Taqwa and Salam mosques continued Tuesday under the supervision of the military justice department.
According to the security source, investigators are hopeful they will be able to obtain further information about the vehicles used in the attacks, including where they were rigged and the parties responsible for detonating them.
On Monday, a judicial source said investigators managed to identify the make of the vehicle used near the Al-Salam Mosque - a four wheel drive Ford - but said they had yet to confirm whether the vehicle outside the Al-Taqwa Mosque was a GMC or Renault 18. The security source said video footage from cameras installed near the mosques where the car bombs detonated is still being analyzed.

Lebanese Tourism group warns of bankruptcies
August 28, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Several businesses will face bankruptcy by the end of next month, officials in the tourism industry warned Tuesday, urging the Central Bank to reschedule existing loans and offer new ones at subsidized interest rates to shore up the sector. “By the end of September, multiple bankruptcies will face the sector and institutions will be closed down voluntarily by owners without [banks] needing to file lawsuits,” Rabih Khayat, a member of the Union of Tourism Associations, said after meeting Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. The delegation presented a paper to Salameh calling on the Central Bank to authorize additional subsidized loans for tourism businesses.
It also demands the rescheduling of payments on subsidized loans by up to three years and a prolongation of the grace period. “These demands will be the focus of our attention and will be under study. We consider these demands a priority currently because [the Central Bank] feels the agony of the tourism sector amid these conditions,” Salameh said following the meeting. While rescheduling subsidized loan payments will be looked into, Salameh said a decision to prolong the grace period falls to the Finance Ministry. The paper calls for slashing taxes on fuel oil used by tourism businesses to generate electricity. It urged the government to put an end to power cuts in the capital, where the majority of hotels and restaurants are located. The delegation also called to cut fares at Lebanon’s national carrier Middle East Airlines in a bid to encourage additional tourists from Iraq and Jordan. The Central Bank is the majority shareholder in MEA. Lebanon continues to see double-digit declines in tourist numbers this year, with the latest figures putting the decrease at 13.5 percent in the first seven months of the year compared to last year. The decline now stands at more than 24.2 percent compared to the first seven months of 2011.
Among the chief reasons for the decline in tourists were travel warnings issued by several Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Kuwait last week urged its citizens to leave Lebanon in the wake of two explosions that rocked Tripoli, killing and injuring hundreds of people. Beirut’s hotel occupancy also dropped 7 percentage points in June to 58 percent down from 65 percent a year earlier, according to a report last week by Ernst & Young.
But revenue per room available and the average daily rate, two key indicators for hotel income, shed 30 and 21 percent respectively, among the sharpest falls in the region, according to the report.
The report covers only premium hotels in the capital and estimates by the Hotel Owners Association put overall occupancy rates much lower.
The tourism sector’s contribution to Lebanon’s GDP could decline from more than $8 billion in 2009 and 2010 to less than $4 billion this year if security conditions continue to decline, the Tourism Association has warned.

Saudi-US dispute over Egypt
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
The statement issued by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal last week was akin to a pebble thrown into the still waters of Washington’s foreign relations. After he succeeded in convincing the French to support the new situation in Egypt, he said the following: “The Arab States will never accept manipulation of their fates or tampering with their security and stability by the international community. I hope that the international community is aware of the contents of the message of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques that the Kingdom is serious and will not hesitate in supporting the Egyptian People to safeguard their security and stability.”
The Saudi foreign minister’s statements were implicitly directed at the US and the rest of the West, which attempted to support the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to stand against the change that occurred following the June 30 protests. Repeating a similar implication in a subsequent statement, Prince Saud Al-Faisal emphasized that Egypt is considered the largest and most important Arab country and “the Kingdom does not accept determining Egypt’s fate based on false assessments.”
Senior US security expert Bruce Riedel shares Dennis Ross’s analysis that there is a US-Saudi dispute regarding how to deal with what is happening in the region today, including the situations in Bahrain and Egypt. They agree that regardless of this dispute, Saudi Arabia remains an important country for the US. In an op-ed published in The New York Times, Riedel reminds us that US president Barack Obama has never criticized Saudi Arabia, despite everything that’s going on, adding that “he understands the paradox that lies at the heart of our key partnership in the Islamic world.”
Riedel believes that the solution lies in following two courses, one that is mutually agreed upon—fighting terrorism and keeping pressure on Iran through sanctions—and another that is disputed, namely whether or not to support change in the Arab world. He is of the view that the US dispute with Saudi Arabia over the latter issue must continue. As for Dennis Ross, he believes that the dispute in relations between Saudi Arabia and the US has a positive side, stressing that Saudi Arabia’s influence and weight should be used to support positive change, not prevent it.
The dispute over Egypt is clear to see, particularly in Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal’s statement last week. He clarified that Saudi Arabia’s fate is intrinsically linked to its strategic relations with Egypt and that the Kingdom fears that foreign pressures—particularly from the Americans—could impose Muslim Brotherhood rule, despite the group’s transgressions against the Egyptian people.
The Americans believe that the Brotherhood will commit to a democratic approach and devolution of power. But what lies ahead for the region if the Brotherhood attempt to transform Egypt in the same manner that Khomeini altered Iran in 1979, when he seized unilateral power and subjected the Iranian people to greater tyranny than they witnessed under the Shah? What would happen to the region if the Brotherhood attempts to follow the same course as Hamas in 2006 when the Islamist group betrayed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and established its own state in Gaza? Gaza has turned into an Iranian canton currently being exploited by the Israelis as a justification against granting the Palestinians an independent state of their own.
This is the most important question: Does Saudi Arabia oppose a democratic system in Egypt?
The reality is that Saudi Arabia’s opinion doesn’t matter. What matters more is the Egyptian people’s opinion. Saudi Arabia, no matter how influential it is, cannot alter the course of events in Egypt. Most Egyptian groups have voiced their anger at the Brotherhood’s policy of pushing the Egyptian state towards autocracy and tyranny, monopolizing power and eliminating their political opponents. This was an approach that President Mohamed Mursi had initially vowed not to take.
Mursi was leading Egypt towards the Iranian model. If he had succeeded, all that the Americans could have said was: “Our calculations were wrong.” This would have been precisely like former president Jimmy Carter’s wrong calculations regarding Khomeinist Iran.
The United States, which is more than 5,000 miles away from Egypt, will be dealing with the Brotherhood’s regime from afar, whether it is following an approach of calm or confrontation. For Saudi, however, which is situated right next door to Egypt, its relations with the country are vital.
A Brotherhood fascist regime means that Saudi Arabia could become besieged by Iran from three sides. We hope that the Egyptians hold new free elections in less than a year. We hope that all political parties will participate in these elections. We hope that the Egyptian people can come to an agreement on a regime that expresses their vision for the future. It is far better for Saudi Arabia for Egypt to have a stable political regime, rather than an Egypt that is being pushed towards elimination, chaos, eventually becoming another failed state in the region. The next elections will represent the effective Egyptian response against the Brotherhood’s propaganda that it is the victim. The Brotherhood, despite embracing democracy, is still incapable of getting rid of its religious fascist doctrine.
 

Expect more U.S. minimalism on Syria

By Michael Young/ The Daily Star
Amid the frigid talk in Washington about why President Barack Obama might order a strike against the Syrian regime, one word is never heard. U.S. officials describe a possible military action as “punishment” for the use of chemical weapons, and “deterrence” against the future use of such weapons, but none have used the word “justice.” You would have thought it would come naturally when mentioning the consequences of a crime against humanity.
But rendering justice means doing more in Syria than the United States is prepared to do. U.S. officials are saying that Obama plans a “limited operation,” one that may last two days. Such a response to the mass killing of civilians will probably achieve nothing. In seeking to avoid a campaign affecting political outcomes in Syria, Obama will effectively allow the carnage in the country to continue.
When retaliation for a terrible crime only helps perpetuate a larger crime, something is off kilter, especially from the man who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009. In his defense Obama may state that he is not responsible for the Syrian war. That’s true, but he is also the president of a country that has been at the center of the post-World War II international system, with its laws, norms and treaties (indeed Obama claimed he respected the rules of this system, unlike George W. Bush). But today Obama has reinterpreted this legacy in such a minimalist way as to make the U.S. sense of responsibility negligible.
In Obama’s favor, one problem is that the Syrian opposition has come to be defined, and to an extent overcome, by its most extreme elements. Discord between the more moderate opposition figures, the bankruptcy of the Arab states, the cowardice and lack of foresight of the United States, and the futility of the Western Europeans, have crippled the effort to oppose Assad rule.
Ideally, what should the U.S. do? That question is often thrown out by those who see wisdom and vision in Obama’s immobility in the Middle East, even as American regional alliances begin to collapse. And yet the question requires a response.
From the start Obama has made a negotiated settlement in Syria his preferred outcome. In this he was right. A military solution is not feasible at this stage. It is also not desirable if it creates a political vacuum that can be exploited by jihadists, criminal gangs, and others, and leaves unanswered what happens to Syria’s minorities, above all the Alawites, an essential component of the Syrian social fabric.
But Obama’s efforts largely stopped at calling for the Geneva II conference. The president never sought to integrate a military strategy in Syria with his political aims, unlike Russia or Iran. Early on American officials said that President Bashar Assad had to leave office, as if a mere statement would push him to book a flight out of Damascus. Yet nothing was done to turn that thought into a reality.
Weeks ago Obama promised to arm the Syrian rebels, presumably to give them leverage in the run-up to negotiations. But that initiative stalled after opposition in Congress. The administration has instead relied on the Gulf states to send weapons, which may well undercut the conditions imposed by the U.S. for its own weapons supplies to the opposition. The Gulf states are far less discriminating about who ultimately receives the weapons, jihadists or otherwise.
Yet politically, if the administration wants negotiations, it must ensure that those it favors go to the table with a strong hand. That means three things: pushing hard, through it Turkish, Saudi and Qatari allies, for the creation of a unified opposition both inside and outside Syria, with a single program. It is imperative that the groups inside Syria agree to be represented by those outside. This is no easy task, but can be facilitated if those groups outside take over the distribution of weapons and funds through a broad, centralized Syrian body, perhaps under American and Arab supervision.
Second, it also means giving the opposition units it favors the weapons they need to make significant gains on the ground, since nothing will damage the jihadists more than the military success of their rivals in the rebel movement. And third, the U.S. must put all its political weight on the Saudis, Qataris and others to cut off their funding, both public and private, to the more extremist groups.
These are major endeavors, but American leverage will be greatly augmented once the Obama administration takes the Syria file in hand, and persuades its allies it has a real plan.
The persistent objective, one the Americans alone can impose on the different parties, is a political solution. In this they will have Russian backing. As practitioners of realist politics, the Russians read the balance of forces. If this turns against Assad, they will negotiate accordingly. But until the opposition (or the regime) gains a decisive military advantage, Syria will be stuck in a stalemate. Nothing suggests the U.S. intends to use an attack against Syria to break this stalemate. A sustained military campaign may precipitate Assad’s downfall (which is why Iran and Hezbollah have no interest in provoking one) and the vacuum Obama wants to avoid.
For Obama to refuse to integrate a military component, direct or indirect, into his political planning is irresponsible. As American intervention in the Bosnia war showed, well-measured American military action can facilitate a political arrangement. But doing nothing in Syria will only perpetuate chaos, possibly facilitating the creation of a terrorist haven, threatening regional stability further, exacerbating the refugee crisis, and leaving American allies to fend for themselves, which will lead them to make bad choices.
Firing a few Tomahawks will not benefit the Syrians in whose name the U.S. is acting. If matters remain contained, all will go back to normal soon thereafter, America having declared victory and again turned its back.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Canada Outlines Humanitarian Assistance in Response to Syrian Crisis
August 28, 2013 - More than two years since the beginning of the crisis, the armed conflict continues to have devastating humanitarian consequences in Syria and neighbouring countries. Today, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and the Honourable Christian Paradis, Minister of International Development and Minister for La Francophonie outlined details of $42.8 million in allocations to humanitarian organizations, announced by Prime Minister Stephen Harper on June 17, 2013.
“Canada has led the world in demonstrating compassion and generosity in response to the truly horrific circumstances facing the Syrian people,” said Baird. “The Government of Canada is delivering its assistance through experienced humanitarian partners such as the UN’s World Food Programme, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and other non-governmental organizations.”
Canada’s humanitarian assistance will address the urgent needs of up to 6.8 million conflict-affected people (including 3.1 million children) living in Syria, 4.25 million of whom are internally displaced. It will also help address the urgent needs of close to two million refugees from Syria in neighbouring countries and North Africa.
“Canada is helping to ensure that Syrian people affected by the crisis receive the life-saving emergency support they need,” said Minister Paradis. “Canada’s support will help to ensure that emergency health services, shelter, food, water and protection are provided to the most vulnerable people affected by the conflict both inside Syria and in neighbouring countries.”
The Syrian people have been subject to appalling levels of violence and brutality, and it is estimated that more than 100,000 people have been killed and 400,000 injured in the fighting since the beginning of the crisis.
“We understand that as the crisis in Syria worsens, Canada will continue to do more to address the urgent needs of the Syrian people,” said Baird.
The Syrian crisis is one of the most significant humanitarian catastrophes of the 21st century, and it is, unfortunately, expected that the humanitarian needs will continue to grow past the end of 2013.
Canada continues to call on all parties to the conflict to guarantee humanitarian access and allow for the safe delivery of emergency relief to those who need help the most. Canada remains committed to providing life-saving humanitarian assistance to those in need, both inside Syria and in neighboring countries.
A backgrounder follows.
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Backgrounder - Canada Provides Humanitarian Assistance During the Syrian Crisis
On August 28th, 2013, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and the Honourable Christian Paradis, Minister of International Development and Minister for La Francophonie, outlined the details of $42.8 million of the $90 million in humanitarian assistance that was announced by Prime Minister Stephen Harper on June 17, 2013.
Humanitarian Assistance in Syria: $22 million
United Nations World Food Programme: $14.5 million
Canada’s support will provide emergency food assistance to crisis-affected Syrians, as well as nutritious supplementary foods to children aged 6 to 59 months through the provision of:
emergency food assistance on a monthly basis for up to four million crisis-affected people; and
monthly supplementary feeding products for 300,000 children.
International Organization for Migration: $2 million
Canada’s support will assist internally displaced people to meet their urgent relief needs through the provision of:
increased access to shelter for 87,500 internally displaced people;
improved living conditions for 500,000 of the most vulnerable crisis-affected people, including women, children, the elderly and those with disabilities, by providing non-food relief items (including hygiene kits, kitchen sets and winterization kits);
increased access to primary health care and referral services for 50,000 crisis-affected Syrians; and
improved access to livelihoods for 30,000 internally displaced persons.
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA): $400,000
Canada’s support will help manage the humanitarian-coordination system in Syria and help enable OCHA to advocate improved access for vulnerable populations to services and assistance through:
enhanced coordination of the humanitarian response inside Syria;
improved humanitarian access to crisis-affected people; and
regular and comprehensive reporting on the situation and the needs of affected populations.
Other Humanitarian Partners: $5.1 million
Canada’s support to multiple humanitarian partners will meet the urgent needs of Syrian families displaced or seriously affected by the ongoing conflict in the country. Assistance will include:
increased access to safe water and improved sanitation facilities;
increased access to essential non-food items;
shelter for displaced families; and
nutritious food for children, breastfeeding mothers and vulnerable people.
Humanitarian Assistance in the Region: $20.8 million
A) Projects at Regional or Multi-Country Level
United Nations World Food Programme: $17.5 million
Canada’s support will assist refugees from Syria and vulnerable populations in host communities through improved access to:
emergency food assistance through food parcels, food vouchers and e-vouchers for up to 2.7 million people;
welcome meals for new refugee arrivals;
supplementary food assistance for children and for pregnant and lactating women; and
school meal programs.
International Committee of the Red Cross: $1.3 million
Canada’s support will provide medical assistance to refugees in Jordan and Lebanon to:
improve living conditions for up to 150,000 Syrian refugees through the distribution of non-food relief items;
improve health for refugees through effective and efficient access to emergency health care;
improve psychosocial well-being for refugees through the provision of psychosocial services;
improve food security and relief for refugees through the distribution of cash assistance; and
enhance the operational capacity of national societies to respond or scale up their services.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies: $1 million
Canada’s support will deliver immediate assistance to a total of 258,465 persons: 65,000 in Jordan, 137,000 in Lebanon and 56,465 in Iraq to:
improve health for refugees through effective and efficient access to emergency and health care;
improve psychosocial well-being for refugees through the provision of psychosocial services;
improve food security and relief for refugees through distribution of food parcels and non-food items; and
enhance operational capacity of national societies to respond and/or scale up their services.
B) Projects in Jordan
World Vision Canada: $1 million
Canada’s support will provide water and sanitation assistance, as well as child protection services, in Irbid and Ma’an governorates, benefiting approximately 25,700 Syrian refugees and host-community members through the provision of:
improved access to potable water for 6,000 people within Syrian-refugee and host-community populations;
secure, sanitary and culturally appropriate water and sanitation facilities to schools, benefiting 12,000 children;
a sanitation- and hygiene-promotion campaign targeting refugee and host-community populations;
child-protection services in four child-friendly spaces, benefiting 640 vulnerable children; and
strengthened community-based child-protection mechanisms among targeted host-community and refugee populations.
Humanitarian Assistance Provided During the Syrian Crisis
Since early 2011, the unrest in Syria has led more than 1.9 million Syrians to seek refuge in the neighbouring countries of Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Turkey, resulting in significant humanitarian needs. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 6.8 million people inside Syria, including 4.25 million who are internally displaced, also need urgent help. It is estimated that 100,000 people have died in the ongoing conflict, with hundreds of thousands more wounded.
Since January 2012, Canada has allocated $158.5 million to international humanitarian assistance efforts in Syria and neighbouring countries, including Prime Minister Harper’s June 17, 2013, announcement of $90 million in response to urgent appeals. This assistance is delivered through experienced humanitarian partners, and it is contributing to significant results on the ground.
In Syria, Canada is helping:
the World Food Programme (WFP) provide monthly food assistance to four million conflict-affected Syrians;
the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) meet the basic needs of three million people displaced from their homes;
the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) provide health services, including vaccinations, primary health care and psychosocial support, as well as clean drinking-water and hygiene kits, to 1.7 million children;
the International Organization for Migration (IOM) provide emergency shelter for 87,500 people unable to live in their homes;
OCHA inform international and national organizations of ongoing needs and humanitarian activities;
the United Nations Department of Safety and Security support United Nations agencies to deliver humanitarian assistance safely and efficiently; and
other humanitarian partners provide clean drinking-water to 1.1 million people by trucking in water and repairing damaged water infrastructure; and provide basic relief items, primary health care and medicines to 650,000 beneficiaries
For Syrian refugees living in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, Canada is helping:
WFP provide basic food to 800,000 people;
UNHCR meet the basic needs of 1.7 million people;
UNICEF provide essential services, including education for 67,900 children, vaccinations for 430,000 children, health services for 300,000 crisis-affected people and safe water and sanitation for 1.4 million crisis-affected people, especially mothers and children; and
IOM provide basic items to 770,000 crisis-affected people, as well as transportation and healthcare assistance for 110,000 Syrian refugees
In Turkey, Canada is helping:
other humanitarian partners provide food, water and shelter, along with items such as hygiene kits, blankets, heaters and winter clothing, to 225,000 displaced Syrians at the Turkey-Syria border.
In Jordan, Canada is helping:
UNICEF provide clean water for washing and drinking to 300,000 Syrian refugees living in camps;
CARE Canada provide emergency shelter, food and basic items to 12,500 crisis-affected people;
Save the Children Canada provide education and psychological support to 9,000 crisis-affected children; and Handicap International provide health and protection assistance to 18,650 refugees, including people with injuries, disabilities and chronic illnesses, as well as elderly refugees.
In Lebanon, Canada is helping:
UNHCR provide shelter to 380,000 Syrians fleeing the conflict and much-needed relief supplies to 445,000 people;
World Vision Canada provide clean drinking water, hygiene assistance and emergency funds to 3,750 crisis-affected people;
Development and Peace provide emergency health-care services to 30,000 crisis-affected people; and
Save the Children Canada provide child protection services, education and basic support to 8,000 people, including children.
In Iraq, Canada is helping:
UNICEF provide 87,500 children with access to education and 260,000 Syrian refugees with access to essential health services.