Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources/August 27/13

Skirting the ground: How the West will attack Syria
Hezbollah fighters exposed to chemical agents in Syria: source
UN experts to hunt for chemical shell shrapnel - as West poised to strike Syria this week
Violence could spin out of control in Lebanon: analysts
Fears of more bombings sweep Lebanon
Rai visits Beirut suburbs, says disputes lead to bombings
Qabbani Says Rival Officials Responsible for Deteriorating Security Situation
Informer over Tripoli Twin Bombings Says Sheikh Wanted to Target Prominent Figures
Geagea Doesn't See 'Same Hand' in Tripoli, Dahieh Blasts: We Can't be with Hizbullah in Same Cabinet
Al-Mustaqbal Bloc Says Hizbullah's Fighting in Syria Exposed Lebanon to Dangers
Al-Rahi Offers Condolences in Dahieh, Urges Political Initiative to Honor Victims of Blasts
Miqati Rules Out Jabal Mohsen-Tabbaneh Clashes: Tripoli Residents Clinging to State Authority
Phalange Party Urges Hizbullah to 'Return' to Lebanon, Facilitate Cabinet Formation
Jumblat Calls for Confronting Self-Security Measures across Lebanon
Higher Defense Council Praises 'Patriotic Spirit' after Bombings
Plumbly Calls for Self-Restraint, Cooperation with Security Forces
Salam Says Contacts Ongoing with March 8 over Cabinet Impasse
Miqati Says Lebanese Reject Strife, Enjoy High Level of Awareness
Berri Says Security, Political Deterioration Must End
Conflicting Reports on Explosives Near NBN Headquarters
Assad Says Chemical Claims 'Insult,' Warns U.S. of Failure if it Attacks Syria
US: There was a chemical massacre
Kerry: Chemical weapons use in Syria is ‘undeniable,’ there must be accountability
US warns Syria after 'obscene' chemical strike
UN inspectors reach Syria gas victims despite coming under fire
U.S. has sense of urgency but no timeline on Syria
No proof yet of Syria chemical attack, Putin tells Cameron
Syria rebels seize strategic town, kill dozens of Assad fighters
In In Syria, U.N. chemical weapons inspectors reach alleged attack site
Canada's FM, Baird Meets with Coptic Christians in Toronto
Canada's FM, Baird Announces Support for Religious Freedom
Egyptian foreign minister discusses Syria with Kerry
US-Egypt alliance to remain, despite dim democracy
Fresh killings halt Mideast peace talks
US denies reports of canceled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks after West Bank clashes
Diplomats: Iran adding to atom capacity, limiting stockpile growth

Skirting the ground: How the West will attack Syria
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4422534,00.html

US, British top brass prepare for possible attack in Syria, British Daily Mail outs target bank, including Assad's air force, key regime facilities
Ynet Published: 08.26.13/Ynetnews
The British Daily Mail newspaper revealed on Monday the American-British target list in Syria and the forces likely to participate in a military operation – be it a short or a long one – in the torn Arab country.
The favored option among top brass is for limited Western action using ‘stand-off’ weapons from long distance to disrupt Assad’s ability to carry out chemical attacks and damage his military machine, the Daily Mail said.Intelligence on targets would come from drones patrolling the skies above Syria and special forces on the ground.According to the Daily Mail, military analysts believe an attack could last between 24 and 48 hours and would target key regime installations.
These would include Syria’s integrated air defense system, command and control bunkers, communications hubs, government buildings, missile sites and Assad’s air force.
The dictator’s use of air power has been a huge advantage for the regime, and eliminating or weakening it would tilt the odds toward the rebels, said the report.
Other military options are airstrikes on Syrian units believed to be responsible for chemical attacks. Reports last week claimed the chemical weapons were fired by the 155th Brigade of the 4th Armoured Division of the Syrian Army.
This division, which has a military base in a mountain range west of Damascus is under the command of the president’s brother, Maher Assad.
Forces at the ready
US-led strikes would be launched from warships or submarines patrolling in the eastern Mediterranean or Persian Gulf, or from combat aircraft that can fire missiles from hundreds of miles away.
A US Navy battle group including four destroyers is already in the eastern Mediterranean and has moved closer to Syria in preparation for action.
They are armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of hitting a target from up to 1,200 miles away. Around 124 of the 18ft-long, $468,000 warheads were fired by US and British forces against Colonel Gaddafi’s forces during the Libyan war.
The US Air Force could also send B-2 stealth bombers to pound Assad’s military installations. Based in Missouri, they can cover the entire world with just one refueling.
The most expensive aircraft ever – at a cost of $935 million each – they are almost invisible to radar and can carry 40,000lb of bombs.
According to the Daily Mail, as well as having F-16 fighter jets and refueling aircraft based at airfields in the Middle East, the US also has defensive Patriot missile batteries positioned in Jordan, which neighbors Syria.
British firepower
Despite multi-billion-dollar cuts to the defense budge that have seen top brass axe fast jets, warships, spy planes and 30,000 troops, the British armed forces can still contribute to an assault on Syria.
The Royal Navy could fire Tomahawk missiles from its nuclear-powered Trafalgar-class submarines – one of which is constantly on patrol in the Middle East.
The subs carry a giant payload of the super-accurate missiles.
Heavily-armed RAF Tornados could, in theory, fly from RAF Marham in the UK to attack targets in Syria – a 4,200 mile round trip – or be deployed to Cyprus to launch bombing raids from there.
Carrying precision-guided Storm Shadow missiles, the air crews could devastate enemy defenses including radar stations, anti-aircraft batteries and supply lines.
The Storm Shadows have a range of more than 150 miles, allowing the aircraft to attack targets deep inside enemy territory without getting too close to anti-air defenses.
The 1,300kg missile, which technicians program with the target details before the mission, then uses high-tech GPS systems and terrain-following equipment to fly low under radar to its detonation point.
Despite being fired from 150 miles away, the Storm Shadow is accurate to up to 6ft, reducing collateral damage.
Meanwhile in Syria, snipers opened fire Monday at a UN convoy carrying a team investigating the alleged use of chemical weapons outside of Damascus, a UN spokesman said. The Syrian government accused rebel forces of firing at the team, while the opposition said a pro-government militia was behind the attack.
Activists said the inspectors eventually arrived in Moadamiyeh, a western suburb of the capital and one of the areas where last week's attack allegedly occurred. They said the team members spent three hours at a makeshift hospital, meeting with doctors and taking samples from victims before they headed back to Damascus


تقرير من موقع دبكة: خبراء الأمم المتحدة يبحثون عن شظايا الأسلحة الكيماوية فيما الغرب يستعد لضرب سوريا هذا الأسبوع
UN experts to hunt for chemical shell shrapnel - as West poised to strike Syria this week

http://www.debka.com/article/23222/UN-experts-to-hunt-for-chemical-shell-shrapnel---as-West-poised-to-strike-Syria-this-week

DEBKAfile Special Report August 26, 2013,/Five days after the event, a United Nations team of experts Monday, Aug. 26, start scouring a site in eastern Damascus for shrapnel left over from the poison gas shells or rockets fired by the Syrian army’s 155th Brigade last Wednesday.
Given the low prospects of finding evidence at this late date, debkafile’s sources report that the UN Secretariat and the White House in Washington agreed Sunday night that the only chance of the chemical weapons experts finding evidence of their use was to examine one of the targeted sites or injured victims. The Assad regime has only offered to open one site to the UN team, not grant them access to the approximately 2,000 victims under treatment at the three hospitals. Therefore, the inspectors’ best bet was to go for shell shrapnel first.
Even after the alleged Syrian army’s exhaustive cleanup operation after its poison chemical attack, the UN experts still hope to turn up overlooked fragments, however microscopic.
The US and UN also agreed that the experts would submit their initial findings as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday morning, Aug. 28. The Obama administration made clear that it was not prepared to hang around and wait for the results of more extensive tests. The assumption in Washington is that the initial UN findings would suffice as the starting signal for the US and its allies, Britain, France, Canada, Turkey, and Germany, to go forward and launch planned targeted strikes on Syria.
Notwithstanding the official statements coming out of Washington that President Barack Obama has still not decided on his military options against Syria’s chemical attack, debkafile’s sources confirm that limited, targeted Western military action is scheduled for the coming week.
The position of the Gulf emirates and Saudi Arabia is less cut and dried. Riyadh doesn’t want a targeted strike but an early all-out offensive for overthrowing the Assad regime once and for all.
This opens up the possibility of a separate Saudi-Qatari-UAE assault in Syria, coordinated with Washington, but conducted in different regions from those targeted by the US-led lineup.
The result is potentially the pursuit of a broad-based pan-Arab offensive on the Syrian regime, alongside a surgical Western strike.
As the moment of reckoning for his regime approaches, Bashar Assad said Monday, Aug. 26 in an interview with the Russian Izvestia that a US attack on his country would end in “failure.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was deeply concerned over possible US action in Syria.
Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu commented that what is happening in Syria simply demonstrates what will happen if Iran gets even deadlier weapons. He told the weekly cabinet meeting that Israel's "finger is on the pulse" of the situation in Syria and – if need be – its finger would move to the trigger.

Kosovo II, or Geneva II?
By: Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Alawsat
We are now undoubtedly standing before a pivotal development in Syria. Bashar Al-Assad has used chemical weapons in east Ghouta, killing more than 1,300 Syrian, most of whom women and children. So, to which direction will the compass needle point regarding the Syrian events? Will it be Kosovo II, or are we on the way to Geneva II?There has been a shift in world opinion, in both political circles and in the media, following the Ghouta massacre. This has resulted in huge pressure, not only on the US president, but also on Iran and Russia, which have both condemned the use of chemical weapons.Some may say that there is no change, since Tehran and Moscow are accusing the opposition of using the chemical weapons. This is not important, because Iran and Russia’s excuses were clear from the start of the revolution. What is important here is that they have acknowledged that chemical weapons were used, and have asked Assad to allow an international investigation. This came under international pressure, which is now calling for a military operation in Syria.Today, pressure is mounting on President Obama, and expectations are rising that he is close to military action against Assad. This is especially due to the movement of American forces to positions close to Syria, and also due to the announcement of a meeting of senior Arab, American and European military chiefs of staff in Jordan.Assad’s use of chemical weapons does not only damage the credibility of the Americans, it also limits the options of the international community. They either deal with it or accept its consequences. The most important consequence is that the fact the international community ignores the massacre of Ghouta will be seen as a green light to use more chemical weapons to destroy the revolution.It seems that this is what the international community feels right now, especially in Washington. The American media yesterday revealed that Obama was considering how to respond to Assad militarily, based on American intervention in Kosovo with the help of NATO, when it carried out air strikes for 78 days, and in which the forces of Milošević were defeated without the need for the UN Security Council.
Reports say that Obama is studying the Kosovo option because the Russians are expected to stop the Security Council from passing a resolution which allows the use of force against Assad. This option–Kosovo II–together with the Russian condemnation of the use of chemical weapons, means that Moscow and Tehran would work for Geneva II by giving some concessions in order to avoid a bigger defeat, if a military strike was directed at the Assad’s forces, in order to reduce current international pressure on Assad.What is certain is that the Ghouta crime should not go unpunished, and if the confidence in Western intervention in Syria was shaken due to constant stalling, events indicate that we are heading to a Kosovo II scenario, especially after Assad’s crimes were proven and his lies uncovered. It has also become clear that international silence will lead the region to catastrophe, and may make what we have seen in our recent history a minor detail when compared to the horrific episodes that await us on the bloody Syrian stage.

Hezbollah fighters exposed to chemical agents in Syria: source
August 26, 2013/The Daily Star ظBEIRUT: At least four Hezbollah fighters are receiving treatment in Beirut after coming into contact with chemical agents in Syria, a security source told The Daily Star Monday.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said between four and five members came into contact with the chemical agents while searching a group of rebel tunnels in the Damascus suburb of Jobar over the weekend.
On Saturday, Syrian state television said Syrian soldiers found chemical agents in Jobar and that some had suffocated while entering the tunnels. The Hezbollah fighters were transported to Lebanon for treatment and are currently in a Beirut hospital in stable condition, the source said. The source did not say what the chemical agent the fighters encountered was except that it was dispersed in the form of a gas.
U.N. inspectors are investigating claims of a chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghota, outside the Syrian capital. In May, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said fighters from his party were fighting alongside forces loyal to President Bashar Assad in Syria. Nasrallah said the move aimed at protecting Lebanon from a Jihadist threat.

Drums of war in the Middle East
August 26, 2013/ By Lauren Williams/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Pressure is mounting on the United States and its allies to respond to an alleged chemical weapons attack outside the Syrian capital that officials say was probably perpetrated by the government, even if they cannot establish responsibility with certainty.
U.N. weapons inspectors were to begin moving in to the site of the attack that medical agencies say killed hundreds in the Eastern Ghouta area outside Damascus, after Syria Sunday bowed to pressure to grant them access.
But a U.S. official said the agreement to grant access had come too late to be credible, casting doubt over the team’s ability to establish culpability.
Syria confirmed it had agreed to allow the inspections, and the U.N. said Damascus had agreed to a cease-fire while a U.N. team are at the site.
Restricted access in the days following the attack and continued government bombardment of the affected areas have made detailing a clear picture of what exactly happened last Wednesday difficult. But medical samples, along with videos of the attack and witnesses’ testimonies, have been collected, and Western powers have made increasingly assertive claims that they believe President Bashar Assad’s regime was responsible.
France followed the United States and the United Kingdom Sunday in concluding the government was behind it.
French President Francois Hollande told his U.S counterpart Barack Obama Sunday that “everything was consistent” with the conclusion that Damascus was responsible.
Meanwhile, a senior U.S. official said there was very little doubt that the Syrian government had used a chemical weapon against civilians.
“Based on the reported number of victims, reported symptoms of those who were killed or injured, witness accounts and other facts gathered by open sources, the U.S. intelligence community, and international partners, there is very little doubt at this point that a chemical weapon was used by the Syrian regime against civilians in this incident,” the U.S. official said.
“At this juncture, any belated decision by the regime to grant access to the U.N. team would be considered too late to be credible, including because the evidence available has been significantly corrupted as a result of the regime’s persistent shelling and other international actions over the last five days,” the official said.
Britain also said that evidence of an attack could have already been destroyed ahead of a visit.
“We have to be realistic now about what the U.N. team can achieve,” Foreign Secretary William Hague said.
The U.S. last year said the use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” that would prompt unspecified action if crossed.
There were increasing signs Saturday that the United States and its allies were considering taking action. Obama met his top military and national security advisers to debate options. U.S. naval forces have been repositioned in the Mediterranean to give Obama the option of an armed strike.
The U.S. is reluctant to become embroiled in the civil war in Syria. A full-scale intervention is unlikely and unpopular, while there are persistent concerns that arming opposition rebels fighting Assad could empower Al-Qaeda operatives in Syria working against U.S. interests. The Al-Qaeda-aligned Nusra Front leader, in an audio recording, pledged revenge attacks on members of Assad’s Alawite sect.
“If the U.S. goes in and attacks another country without a U.N. mandate and without clear evidence that can be presented, then there are questions in terms of whether international law supports it – do we have the coalition to make it work?” Obama said in a television interview broadcast Friday. “Those are considerations that we have to take into account.”
The U.N. team, who entered Syria under an agreement to investigate three other sites where chemicals were alleged to have been used, have no mandate to investigate the party responsible for each attack, only to assess whether they have been used.And while the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting immediately after the attack, urging “clarity” on the incident, there are doubts any binding statement condemning the Syrian government and authorizing military action will emerge from the body. Syria’s staunch ally Russia, along with China, have already used veto powers to stop three previous statements condemning the regime.
Defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East policy Jeff White told The Daily Star the alleged chemical attack had forced the U.S. administration’s hand, but that intervention was likely to take the form of limited strikes on Assad’s military facilities. “Some sort of punitive strike is most likely ... aimed primarily at command and control targets,” White said.
The purpose of the attacks, he said, would be to “send a signal that we won’t tolerate this kind of attack and that there might be more strikes,” but added that there had to be “hard enough and strong enough to achieve significant political and military effects.”
“The White House is in a real pickle here. Even if the evidence is not 100 percent conclusive, if it can be reasonably concluded that the regime conducted what points toward a large scale chemical attack, they have to act.”Omran al-Zoubi, Syria’s information minister, said any U.S. military action would “create a ball of fire that will inflame the Middle East.”
The U.S. threat also drew a warning from Syria’s closest ally Iran, which, repeating Obama’s own previous rhetoric, said the United States should not cross a “red line” by attacking Syria.
“America knows the limitation of the red line of the Syrian front and any crossing of Syria’s red line will have severe consequences for the White House,” said Massoud Jazayeri, deputy chief of staff of Iran’s military, according to Fars news agency.
The U.N.’s political affairs chief, Jeffrey Feltman, is due to arrive in Iran Monday to discuss the war in Syria, as well as developments in Lebanon and Egypt, the Mehr news agency reported.
With the war drums beating, some Western diplomats and analysts have suggested there was still a chance that diplomatic pressure could force Russia to soften its support for Assad at the U.N.
One Western diplomatic official told The Daily Star there were signs of a “changing dynamic” at the emergency Security Council meeting, with member states “increasingly concerned and impatient.”
Senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut Yezid Sayigh said the U.S. would “look at all other options before intervening.”
He said if the U.N inspectors could establish regime culpability for the attack, that could amount to leverage on Russia at the U.N.
“They could get a statement condemning the regime, or a statement saying no more chemical weapons,” he said.
“There is room for them to gain leverage on this, but it will require the Friends of Syria [a group of Western and Arab countries backing the opposition] to be very clear on what they expect from Russia.”
Russia welcomed Syria’s decision to allow the inspectors in to the site Sunday but said the U.S. should await the findings and realize that a unilateral use of force would be a mistake.
U.N. expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations Richard Gowen said while the presence of U.N. inspectors “puts the U.N. back at the center of the crisis ... it is not clear what they will be able to find and prove.”
“Still, the current sense of uncertainty over the possibility of a U.S. military strike does give [U.N. chief] Ban Ki-moon and his envoy Lakhdar Brahimi a brief window of opportunity to push for new peace talks. But even if Assad is willing to negotiate to avoid U.S. strikes, it may only be a delaying tactic,” he said.
“If the U.S. does launch any sort of military strike on Syria, it will be even harder for Ban and Brahimi to carve out a peace deal. Neither Russia nor Iran will want to be accused of softening their support for Assad under U.S. pressure.”
Jeff White said a resolution was impossible. “We will never get a resolution out of the U.N. And if the U.S. does revert to the U.N. on this, that’s a sign they really aren’t willing to do anything.”

Rai visits Beirut suburbs, says disputes lead to bombings

August 26, 2013/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai said Monday political disputes among rival groups allowed the bombings in north Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs to occur. “If Lebanon was united and the politicians, particularly rival groups, had come together and engaged in dialogue, the bombings wouldn't have taken place,” Rai told a crowd at the Higher Shiite Council after he offered his condolences to the council and families of the victims of the suburbs blast. A car bomb ripped through the Ruwaiss neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs killing 30 people at the beining of August. Last week, twin car bombs targeted two mosques in the northern city of Tripoli, leaving at least 47 people dead and some 500 wounded. “Words of condolences are necessary but the blood of the innocent people is calling our conscience,” said Rai who also visited Tripoli Sunday and offered his condolences. The patriarch warned that ongoing divisions among rival groups would be costly for the nation. “We should have an understanding, engage in dialogue, be frank and reconcile or else the price we will have to pay is hefty,” he said, adding that the Lebanese public is already paying the price of such disputes on the social, economic and security levels. Rai who headed a delegation of bishops representing the Maronite Church said what happened in Tripoli and in the southern suburbs has affected the entire country.

Canada's FM, Baird Announces Support for Religious Freedom
August 26, 2013 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and Andrew Bennett, Canada’s Ambassador for Religious Freedom, met in Toronto with Nigerian community leaders to discuss the issue of religious freedom and announced two projects to be supported by the Religious Freedom Fund, including one in Jos, Nigeria.
“The promotion and protection of religious freedom continues to be a priority for our government,” said Baird. “Today’s announcement signals our continued commitment to promoting this fundamental Canadian value around the world. Canada is committed to working with Nigerian institutions, government and civil-society representatives to promote freedom of religion and human rights for all Nigerians.”
These two projects, which will promote dialogue and conflict mediation, will involve training civil society and activities to raise awareness of religious freedom.
“The goals of the Office of Religious Freedom reflect the core values of Canadians: democracy, freedom, human rights and the rule of law,” said Bennett. “Moreover, the Office responds to the wishes of Canadians to stem the persecution, violence and repression directed against many religious communities around the world.”
The Religious Freedom Fund, which is managed by the Office of Religious Freedom at Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada, aims to increase the capacity of organizations in various countries to directly address violations of freedom of religion or belief through awareness-building initiatives, and legal and legislative training and support for the promotion of freedom of religion and pluralism.
A backgrounder follows.
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For further information, media representatives may contact:
Media Relations Office
Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada
613-995-1874
media@international.gc.ca
Follow us on Twitter: @DFATDCanada
Backgrounder - Two Projects Funded by Religious Freedom Fund
Nigeria: A two-year project ($553,643) to promote intercommunity dialogue and conflict mediation in Jos and in other parts of Nigeria’s Plateau State, where more than 5,000 people have died since 2001 in clashes between the Hausa-Fulani community, the majority of whom are Muslim, and the Berom community, the majority of whom are Christian. The project will establish a road map with the support of all actors involved in the conflict between Muslims and Christians in Jos and elsewhere in the Plateau State; will develop local mediation capacity and create dialogue opportunities between community and religious leaders; and will train 10 senior government officials and key persons from institutions dealing with peacemaking to strengthen the federal government’s capacity to support conflict management and resolution. The recipient of project funding is the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.
Eastern Europe, Central Asia and South Caucasus: A three-year project ($672,000) to promote international standards on freedom of religion, focusing on the recognition of religious or belief communities in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The project will involve a total of six national training events for government officials and civil society actors in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and South Caucasus; funding for up to 10 small-scale projects seeking ways to address violations of freedom of religion or belief at the national level; the launch of guidelines on the recognition of religious or belief communities at the national level (including one launch in Eastern Europe, Central Asia or South Caucasus) and international level; and three events on the implementation of the guidelines, with government officials and civil society participants invited to ensure that recommendations are taken up at the national level by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) countries. The recipient of project funding is the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)/Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
In addition, on August 23, 2013, Canada announced an initiative to promote human rights and religious freedom with Indonesia through the SETARA Institute for Democracy and Peace. For more information, please see Canada Strengthens Partnership with Indonesia on Security and Human Rights.

Canada's FM, Baird Meets with Coptic Christians in Toronto
August 26, 2013 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, Parliamentary Secretary Bob Dechert and Andrew Bennett, Canada’s Ambassador for Religious Freedom, today met in Toronto with members of the Coptic Christian Orthodox community to discuss the religious persecution of members of their community in Egypt.
“We continue to have grave concerns following recent attacks on religious institutions in Egypt,” said Baird. “In the face of these injustices and atrocities, Canada will not be silent, and we will continue to speak out to promote religious freedom on behalf of those who wish to practise their faith in peace and security.”
“Attacks on places of worship are completely unacceptable, and we have made numerous pleas to Egyptian authorities to ensure worshippers and religious sites are protected from violence and intimidation,” said Andrew Bennett. "We expect those protections to be put in place."
“Through the Office of Religious Freedom, we will continue to work with the community in Egypt and around the world to promote the rights of Coptic Christians as well as all those threatened and persecuted around the world,” said Parliamentary Secretary Bob Dechert.
Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird earlier announced two new programs to help promote religious freedom around the world.

Violence could spin out of control in Lebanon: analysts
AFP/Last updated on 26 August 2013/BEIRUT (Aug 26, 2013): Analysts fear violence will spin out of control in Syria's neighbour Lebanon after deadly bombings struck Sunni and Shiite ares of the country a week apart and killed dozens of people.
The 29-month war in Syria, once the power broker in Lebanon, has already spilled across the border, pitting supporters of the Damascus regime against its opponents.
"It is very likely that there will be more car bombs and other terrorist attacks all over Lebanon. There is nothing to prevent it," said Fadia Kiwan, head of the political sciences department at Beirut's Saint Joseph University.
According to her "there is a fifth column operating in the country" whose protagonists are linked to the Syrian conflict.
On Friday twin car bombs struck the mostly Sunni Muslim northern port city of Tripoli, just a week after a blast ripped through a densely populated Shiite area of Beirut.
Kiwan said the Syrian regime could be behind the attacks or they were unleashed by jihadists from Al-Nusra Front who are fighting alongside other rebels to topple President Bashar al-Assad.
In any case, she said, "all these attacks will continue".
Charles Lister, an analyst at IHS Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, said: "Lebanon has become a victim of what has in effect become a proxy conflict in Syria."
"Lebanon is becoming an extension of the Syrian conflict."
The Tripoli attacks outside Sunni mosques, like the August 15 blast in Rweiss, a stronghold of the Shiite movement Hezbollah, killed civilians.
In all, around 70 people died and hundreds more were wounded.
No one claimed responsibility for the Tripoli attacks -- the bloodiest since Lebanon's 15-year civil war ended in 1990. But a previously unknown group, with apparent Sunni affiliations, said it was responsible for the Rweiss bloodshed.
As officials grapple with the consequences of both attacks, they have warned that the aim of the unrest is to revive "sectarian strife" that plagued Lebanon during the civil war, and vowed to pursue their fight against terrorism.
The bombings outside Sunni mosques during Friday's weekly Muslim prayers is "symbolic", Lister said, because Tripoli has been riven by strife, often deadly, over the Syria conflict.
"The targeting of the Al-Taqwa and Al-Salam mosques was hugely symbolic. Both have been clearly involved in the heightened sectarian tensions within the Tripoli theatre," Lister said.
"However, the sheer scale of the attacks and the fact that they took place during Friday prayers will undoubtedly have a national impact," he added.
Officially Lebanon has kept neutral in the Syria war.
But as the protracted conflict continues, tensions have grown in Lebanon between Sunnis, who mostly support the rebellion against the Syrian regime, and Shiites, who back Assad's government.
Lebanon's Sunnis back the rebels politically and financially, while Hezbollah has been fighting for weeks alongside Assad loyalist troops and have helped them make some advances on the ground.
Tripoli, Lebanon's second city, has been rocked by frequent and often deadly clashes between Sunnis and Alawites, a Shiite offshoot sect from which Assad hails.
But Kiwan said the latest bombings rang alarm bells for all Lebanese, regardless of their religion or sect.
"All the Lebanese are now in the same boat; they are all exposed on the security front," she said.
Observers agree that 23 years after the civil war that killed thousands and devastated the country's infrastructure, no one in Lebanon has any interest in engaging in a new sectarian conflict.
"While I certainly don't foresee any kind of nationwide explosion in violence, I do think such bombings may become more commonplace, particularly in hotspots like Beirut and Tripoli," Lister said.
Paul Salem, who heads the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, says it is too soon to say how things will play out in Lebanon.
He said the Tripoli bombings could have been a form of "retaliation" or even "deterrence" for the Beirut blast.
On the other hand, he said, it could be the beginning of a spiral of violence that "will spin out of control".
Hilal Khashan, chairman of the political science department at the American University of Beirut, said: "It is clear that there is a desire to trigger a confessional war in Lebanon to divert attention from what is happening in Syria."
Friday's car bombings were reminiscent of attacks that shook the country during its civil war, when Lebanese often checked under their cars for explosives before getting in.
That fear was palpable in Tripoli on Saturday as residents buried their dead, including children. – AFP

Egyptian foreign minister discusses Syria with Kerry
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat—Egyptian foreign minister Nabil Fehmi condemned last week’s alleged chemical attack in Damascus, and said he had spoken to the US secretary of state on the issue of the crisis in Syria on Sunday as pressure mounts for an international response.
“Egypt condemned the Ghouta attacks in Syria and said that all countries in the region were very concerned for Syria and its unity,” Fehmi told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that he spoke to US Secretary of State John Kerry on the telephone about the situation in Syria. He affirmed Kerry’s concern about the use of chemical weapons and the importance of allowing UN inspectors into the area to investigate the issue.
The minister said on Sunday that “I pointed out during my conversation with Kerry that the Egyptian foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the attack and rejecting the escalation in Syria, which affects the Syrian state and its future.” Fehmi added that the issue will be discussed at the Arab League meeting on Tuesday, to make a decision which leading to a political settlement.
Arab League deputy secretary-general Ahmad Ben Hilli told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the Arab League will hold a meeting on Tuesday at the representative level to discuss the dangerous developments and the crime that took place in Ghouta, which shocked the Arab world.”
Ben Hilli said Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby has been in constant contact with UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, and has highlighted the importance of starting an investigation by the UN team to reveal the circumstances behind the attack, adding that “we are following with concern the reaction, which could lead the region into a horrific scenario.”
On whether the anticipated scenario was similar to what happened in Libya, Ben Hilli said: “No, but everyone knows the consequences of escalation and reaction. This makes it imperative for the Arabs and the Syrians that a solution is found and that the tragedy is ended.”
He added that “this effort aims to end all forms of violence and provide the suitable climate for a political resolution, which all parties should be urged to maintain.”
On the Syrian government’s rejection of a political settlement for more than two years, Ben Hilli said: “What is happening in Ghouta forms a dangerous turn in the course of events. Everyone must realize that we are facing a decisive moment to save the Syrian people, and must realize that we are facing a crossroads caused by the loss of forward vision and wisdom to stop events taking this dangerous turn.”
In response to Russian claims that the chemical weapons allegedly used in last week’s attack were owned by the Syrian opposition, Ben Hilli said: “We await the results of the investigation by the international inspectors and we hope they work objectively and professionally, and the Arab League chief is in constant contact with Ban Ki-moon and has sent a message to both the Security Council president and the secretary-general to find out what had happened. We should not rush into conclusions and must wait to see what the inspectors say about this heinous crime.”