LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

Bible/Faith/Quotation for today/Paul's Work for the Gentiles
Ephesians 03 /01-13: "For this reason I, Paul, the prisoner of Christ Jesus for the sake of you Gentiles, pray to God. Surely you have heard that God in his grace has given me this work to do for your good. God revealed his secret plan and made it known to me. (I have written briefly about this, and if you will read what I have written, you can learn about my understanding of the secret of Christ.) In past times human beings were not told this secret, but God has revealed it now by the Spirit to his holy apostles and prophets. The secret is that by means of the gospel the Gentiles have a part with the Jews in God's blessings; they are members of the same body and share in the promise that God made through Christ Jesus. I was made a servant of the gospel by God's special gift, which he gave me through the working of his power. 8 I am less than the least of all God's people; yet God gave me this privilege of taking to the Gentiles the Good News about the infinite riches of Christ, and of making all people see how God's secret plan is to be put into effect. God, who is the Creator of all things, kept his secret hidden through all the past ages, in order that at the present time, by means of the church, the angelic rulers and powers in the heavenly world might learn of his wisdom in all its different forms. God did this according to his eternal purpose, which he achieved through Christ Jesus our Lord. 12 In union with Christ and through our faith in him we have the boldness to go into God's presence with all confidence. I beg you, then, not to be discouraged because I am suffering for you; it is all for your benefit.

Ya'alon to Dempsey: We must prevent 'axis of evil' from winning regional conflict
By JPOST.COM STAFF 08/14/2013 /Israel must be prepared for a long-term standoff and instability in Syria while deterring the "axis of evil" - Tehran, Damascus and Beirut - from winning the conflict, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said Wednesday. "Instability in the Middle East is due in part because the Iranian regime is involved in every conflict taking place in the region," Ya'alon told Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff during the his visit to Israel. The two military chiefs discussed the current issues in the Middle East at a meeting also attended by IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz. American media outlets quoted Dempsey this week as saying that Washington is getting a better picture of moderate Syrian rebel organizations it seeks to support against the regime of Bashar Assad. During the meeting, Dempsey reiterated US commitment to Israel and the "shared security interests" faced by both while Ya'alon expressed his interest in further strengthening Israeli-US relations. Ya'alon stated that change was the primary factor in the Middle East, and Dempsey's visit posed an opportunity to discuss the situation in the region and various courses of action. He added that while the US and Israel face many challenges ahead in the Middle East, "we share common interests and shared values."Dempsey met with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Tuesday to hold key security talks on Iran, Syria and the Egyptian Sinai. The US military chief will next travel to Jordan, where the US has kept military forces, including an F-16 squadron, on standby for potential developments in neighboring Syria. Yaakov Lapin and Herb Keinon contributed to this report.

Suleiman to Visit Riyadh ahead of Private Vacation to Europe
Naharnet /President Michel Suleiman might head to a short visit to Saudi Arabia ahead of a private vacation that he will spend in Europe, al-Joumhouria reported on Wednesday. According to the report, the president will kick start his vacation on August 18 which will last until the 28th. Meanwhile, the political scene in the country seems to be calm as Speaker Nabih Berri traveled on Monday on a family vacation and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, who is also on vacation since last week. PM-designate Tammam Salam returned to Lebanon on Tuesday after a vacation in Switzerland. The cabinet formation process remains at impasse as the political scene in the country seems to be at a deadlock. Salam is seeking the formation of a 24-member cabinet in which the March 8, March 14 and the centrists camps would each get eight ministers and rejects to grant the veto power to any side. The March 8 alliance has meanwhile been demanding that it granted veto power in a new cabinet, which the premier-designate has repeatedly rejected. The March 14 coalition is calling for keeping Hizbullah away from the cabinet over its role in Syria's war.

Nasrallah Says Battle with Israel Easier than Local Disputes
Naharnet/Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that the ground battle with Israelis is easier than the disputes among the foes locally, As Safir newspaper quoted him as saying on Wednesday.
“The target is always clear during battles with the Israelis and the options are limited, while locally the difficulties are limitless,” Nasrallah pointed out. The newspaper quoted him on the seventh anniversary of the end of July 2006 war with Israel that the tactics and speeches during the war with Israel are obvious, while locally the rift is deep. Israel fought a devastating 33-day war against Hizbullah in 2006 that cost the lives of 1,200 people in Lebanon, mainly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Abou Faour, Taymour Jumblat to Meet Saudi Officials in Riyadh
Naharnet/Caretaker Social Affairs Minister Wael Abou Faour and son of Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat, Taymour, arrived in Riyadh to hold consultations with a number of Saudi officials who are following up on the situation in Lebanon, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. Informed sources told the daily that the two officials will not meet former Premier Saad Hariri, who has been in Sardinia since the end of the Eid al-Fitr holiday over the weekend. Abou Faour and Taymour Jumblat were aware ahead of their trip that Hariri would not be in the kingdom, meaning that the purpose of their visit was meeting high-ranking Saudi officials, said al-Joumhouria. The former prime minister has been residing in Jeddah. As Safir daily had stated on Monday that Abou Faour and Taymour Jumblat were headed to Saudi Arabia to meet Hariri. Several members of the March 14 alliance are likely to join in the discussions taking place in Jeddah in a bid to help solve the stalemate in forming a government, the daily quoted informed sources on condition of anonymity. Premier-designate Tammam Salam, on a vacation in Switzerland, contacted Hariri for the same purpose, according to As Safir. Jumblat is meanwhile expected to deliver a speech on Sunday, commemorating the annual anniversary of the PSP martyrs in Aley.

Marten Youssef Confident Lebanon Will Meet Obligation to Fund STL
Naharnet/Spokesman for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon Marten Youssef stated that Lebanon has not yet provided its share of the funding of the tribunal for 2013, reported An Nahar daily on Wednesday. He told the daily that he is confident that Lebanon will commit to its obligation to fund the STL as it had done since the tribunal was formed in 2009. The tribunal will continue its work and it won't stop, but Lebanon has to pay the obligatory 49 percent of the total budget, he added. Commenting on the search for the four suspects linked to the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Youssef said that the Lebanese authorities are sending to STL President Judge Sir David Baragwanath a monthly report on these efforts. The authorities have so far failed to apprehend the suspects, who are Hizbullah members.
Meanwhile on Tuesday, the STL denied media reports that Youssef had warned in a previous interview that Lebanon will face sanctions if it does not contribute to the budget. It said via Twitter that such a case is the United Nations “Security Council's prerogative.”It also denied that he had stated that a “grand truth” in Hariri's assassination will be revealed. The STL is investigating the suicide attack that killed Hariri and 22 others in Beirut in February 2005. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati said in May that his cabinet cannot pay Lebanon's share of the STL funding. “The caretaker cabinet cannot be responsible for the matter as it falls under current expenditure,” Miqati explained at the time, implying that the succeeding cabinet should deal with the matter. According to An Nahar newspaper in May, if Lebanon failed to pay the funds on time then the U.N. could pay from its allocations until the new government is formed. Lebanon is obligated to pay around $33 million, which is 49 percent of the STL's budget.

Mansour Files Complaint Against Israeli Violation of Blue Line
Naharnet/Caretaker Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour filed last week a complaint through Lebanon's mission to the United Nations against Israel's violation of the Blue Line, the state-run National News Agency reported on Wednesday. According to the news agency, the complaint came in light of a landmine blast along the northern border with Lebanon that injured four Israeli soldiers. The complaint considered that the Israeli penetration patrol violates Lebanon's sovereignty, United Nation's Security Council Resolution 1701, the International law and threatens Lebanon's civil peace. Mansour tasked Lebanon's mission to file the complaint to the U.N. Security Council and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. He also called for filing the complaint before the U.N. General Assembly. A Lebanese army communique said that the “Israeli infantry army penetrated 400 meters inside Lebanon in the Labbouneh area at 00:24 local time.”"An explosion took place and the soldiers were wounded, with blood found at the scene. A military committee has opened an investigation in coordination with UNIFIL," the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, it said. An Israeli military spokesperson said Wednesday that the soldiers were hurt during "overnight activity adjacent to the northern border." It did not say if they were injured in training or in combat, and refused to elaborate further. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said later that “Israel will continue to act responsibly to secure its border.”The Security Council Resolution 1701 ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah.

Geagea Urges Hizbullah to Return to Lebanese Fold: State's Fate Lies in Suleiman, Salam's Hands
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea urged Hizbullah to withdraw its fighters, hand over its weapons to the state, become part of the Lebanese fold, and limit its losses, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. He told the daily: “I hope President Michel Suleiman and Primer Minister-designate Tammam Salam will assume their responsibilities until the very end because the fate of the state depends on what they do.”
He stressed the need to form a new government and avoid political vacuum, saying that he prefers the formation of a neutral cabinet over one comprised of non-party officials, but he supports either line-up.
Commenting on the instability in Lebanon, Geagea said: “The situation is complicated and the future is not clear, especially regarding the parliamentary and presidential elections, in light of Hizbullah's policy of obstructing all state institutions.”He ruled out however the eruption of a new civil war in Lebanon, adding that the situation in the country is linked to the unrest in Syria and it also lies in the hands of the Lebanese people themselves.
“At the moment however Hizbullah is Lebanon's only problem,” he stressed. “I am not seeking to eliminate Hizbullah from the political scene in Lebanon, but I want to eliminate the means in which it is compromising the state,” he added. Addressing the security situation in Lebanon, he said that he fears that assassination attempts against officials would take place, saying that it is preferable that former Premier Saad Hariri return to Lebanon, “but I cannot call on him to come back because I cannot assume the responsibility of this action.”Hariri has been residing abroad for over a year due to alleged threats on his life. Geagea also noted that the recent rockets that were fired in the Baabda region were a message to Suleiman over his recent criticism of Hizbullah's fighting in Syria. “They do not want to silence him, but they want him to stop taking such stances,” he remarked.
“I do not rule out the possibility that they will send him other messages that will hit closer to home,” he warned. Asked if a direct threat could be directed against the president, he responded: “Why not? Former Premier Rafik Hariri was assassinated” so nothing can be ruled out. “We are still counting on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon” to create changes in Lebanon, Geagea said.
Two 107 mm rockets were fired in the Baabda area on Army Day on August 1. One of the rockets landed in the garden of the Freiha villa that is located near the Officers' Club and presidential palace. The second rocket landed near the Khashoqji castle in al-Yarzeh. The attack came on the same day that Suleiman gave a speech on the occasion of Army Day in which he criticized Hizbullah's involvement in the Syrian war in support of President Bashar Assad's forces.

Hizbullah Condemns Turkish Pilots' Abduction
Naharnet /Hizbullah "lamented" on Wednesday the kidnapping of the Turkish pilot and copilot, noting that efforts are exerted to release the abducted Turks and the Lebanese pilgrims. "Hizbullah condemns the kidnapping of the two Turkish pilots and all abductions of civilians,” the party's MP Mohammed Raad said after meeting with Turkey's ambassador to Lebanon Inan Ozyildiz. He added: "The party is keen on reaching a good ending that solves the problem of the pilots and of the Lebanese pilgrims and we are working with the state's institutions towards achieving for this purpose.” Meanwhile, Ozyildiz confirmed that Turkish authorities are also working towards freeing the Lebanese pilgrims. A Turkish pilot and co-pilot were kidnapped by gunmen in Beirut on Friday. The relatives of Lebanese pilgrims held in Syria's Aazaz region were quick to deny having any links to the abduction, but one of the relatives, Mohammed Saleh, was arrested on Sunday over links to the incident. The families of the pilgrims have repeatedly accused Turkey of being responsible for the release of their loved ones, warning that they will target Turkish interests in Lebanon in order to pressure Ankara to resolve the case. In May 2012, eleven Lebanese pilgrims were kidnapped in Syria's Aleppo region as they were making their way back to Lebanon by land from pilgrimage from Iran. Two of them have since been released, while the rest remain held in Aazaz.

Raad Says Baabda Declaration Was 'Born Dead'
Naharnet /Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad stated on Wednesday that the Baabda Declaration “was born dead,” accusing political factions in the country of “hindering the commitment to national agreements.”"Some groups want to cover their failure in building the state by tackling the resistance's weapons,” Raad said at an event celebrating the contributors to Hizbullah's al-Manar television and al-Nur radio. He explained: “We might talk about declarations and about national dialogue but the loss of credibility of some factions obstruct the commitment to all these agreements. The Baabda Declaration, for example, was born dead because our political foes used their weapons and ports to transport arms to meddle in regional affairs.”"All what is left from the Baabda Declaration is ink on paper.” In June 2012, a national dialogue session approved the Baabda Declaration that demands that Lebanon disassociate itself from regional conflicts. The Hizbullah lawmaker also denounced “some factions' silence over Israeli violations.” “While they are sensitive towards a rocket that, by mistake, was launched from beyond the border and fell on the Bekaa, even filing complaints with the U.N. Security Council and the Arab League about it, they on the other hand did not condemn the daily Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty and the latest incidence in Labbouneh when troops crossed the Blue Line and advanced 400 meters into Lebanon.” The Lebanese army said last week that a group of Israeli soldiers crossed the border into the southern area of Labbouneh near Naqoura and were wounded in an explosion which reports have said was caused by a landmine. Tackling the formation of the cabinet, Raad insisted that “all political factions must be represented in the new council of ministers.” “Any mistakes in political representation inside the cabinet will lead to a deadlock in solving the internal crisis and we will waste time waiting to see what happens regionally and what results might be exported to Lebanon," he considered. Source/Agence France Presse.

Interior Minister Marwan Charbel Meets Turkish Delegation: Officials Exerting Exceptional Efforts to Release Pilots
Naharnet /Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel held talks on Wednesday with Turkish deputy Army Intelligence chief Abdul Rahman Baljak and the accompanying delegation on the abduction of two Turkish pilots in Lebanon and the case of Lebanese pilgrims held in Syria's Aazaz region, reported the National News Agency. The minister said after the talks: “High-ranking Lebanese officials are exerting exceptional efforts in order to release the pilots as soon as possible.” “The Lebanese state condemns abductions because they tarnish the country's image, especially before a friendly nation like Turkey,” he added. “The case of the two pilots is being addressed seriously on the security, judicial, and political levels in order to release them and return them to their homeland,” he stressed. Moreover, Charbel remarked that the ministerial committee tasked with tackling the case of the Lebanese pilgrims is counting on Turkey's assistance to release them, especially since it has been over a year since they were kidnapped. “Their case is a national and humanitarian one and it should not be linked to the abduction of the pilots,” he urged. For its part, the Turkish delegation expressed its country's readiness to continue its cooperation to resolve the case of the Lebanese pilgrims and consequently that of the pilots. An agreement was reached between Charbel and the delegation to hold a second meeting in Turkey. A Turkish pilot and co-pilot were kidnapped by gunmen in Beirut on Friday. The attack prompted Turkey to issue a travel warning urging its citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to Lebanon and those already present in the country to leave. The relatives of Lebanese pilgrims held in Syria's Aazaz region were quick to deny having any links to the abduction, but one of the relatives, Mohammed Saleh, was arrested on Sunday over links to the incident. The relatives in return threatened to block the airport road should he be kept in custody. The families of the pilgrims have repeatedly accused Turkey of being responsible for the release of their loved ones, warning that they will target Turkish interests in Lebanon in order to pressure Ankara to resolve the case.In May 2012, eleven Lebanese pilgrims were kidnapped in Syria's Aleppo region as they were making their way back to Lebanon by land from pilgrimage from Iran.Two of them have since been released, while the rest remain held in Aazaz.

Salam Meets Suleiman, Eyes National Interest in Cabinet Formation
Naharnet /Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam denied on Wednesday that he will be forming a de facto cabinet, stressing that he supports “a council of ministers that serves the national interest.”
"A cabinet will be formed and everything that has been said in the past few days on the government's formation is not correct,” Salam said after holding talks with President Michel Suleiman at Baabda Palace.
He stressed: "There will not be a de facto cabinet.”The premier-designate elaborated saying that he is “committed to forming a national unity cabinet that serves Lebanon's interests.”
He noted : “We will work on forming a cabinet that satisfies the Lebanese people and we encourage cooperation and the support of President Suleiman.”
"All cabinets are political cabinets but factions like to label them and all I see is a government that serves the national interest. A neutral cabinet means that its ministers are not partisans and do not have a political affiliation but they want the national interest.”Salam continued: "I have been at the same distance from all political factions since being named to form a cabinet. I have my own independence and freedom because I was named to form the cabinet by 124 MPs and my goal is the national interest.”“Political factions have the right to ask for what they see as satisfying their interests and it is my right to perceive the national interest before any personal gains,” he remarked. Source/Agence France Presse.

149 Dead in Police Crackdown on Cairo Protests, Presidency Declares State of Emergency
Naharnet/Egypt declared a month-long state of emergency Wednesday as violence raged across the country following a crackdown on supporters of ousted president Mohammed Morsi. Security forces stormed two huge Cairo protest camps occupied for weeks by supporters of Morsi, leaving at least 149 people dead in a crackdown that turned into a bloodbath. The health ministry said 149 people were killed in clashes across Egypt and that another 1,403 people were injured as violence roiled several provinces. The interior ministry also announced that 43 policemen were killed in the violence.
"Eighteen police officers, including two generals and two colonels, 15 policemen, nine conscripts and a civilian employee of the police" were killed, Mohammed Ibrahim told reporters. The nationwide state of emergency entered into force at 4:00 pm (1400 GMT), the presidency said in a statement read out on state television. The exceptional measures came as "the security and order of the nation face danger due to deliberate sabotage, and attacks on public and private buildings and the loss of life by extremist groups," the presidency said. Interim president Adly Mansour "has tasked the armed forces, in cooperation with the police, to take all necessary measures to maintain security and order and to protect public and private property and the lives of citizens."Egypt's government later on Wednesday declared a daily curfew in Cairo and 11 other provinces in a bid to contain nationwide violence. The curfew was to begin at 7:00 pm (1700 GMT), before sunset, and run until 6:00 am (0400 GMT), a government spokesman said in a statement read out on state television.
It applies to the provinces of Cairo, Giza, Alexandria, Beni Sueif, Menya, Assiut, Sohag, Beheira, North Sinai, South Sinai and Suez. The government later added that Isamiliya would also be under curfew.
The measure in all 12 provinces will last one month, the government said, after the presidency announced a month-long state of emergency in the country.
As clashes raged in the capital, three churches were attacked in central Egypt, with Christian activists accusing Morsi loyalists of waging "a war of retaliation against Copts in Egypt".Hours after the first tear gas canisters rained down on tents of protesters in the sprawling Rabaa al-Adawiya camp in east Cairo, an Agence France Press correspondent counted at least 124 bodies in makeshift morgues. In a field hospital, its floors slippery with blood, doctors struggled to cope with the casualties, leaving the hopeless cases, even if still alive. The Muslim Brotherhood, from which Morsi emerged, said that 2,200 people had been killed and over 10,000 injured as authorities confirmed 56 deaths in Wednesday's violence.Security officials had spoken of a gradual dispersal of the sit-ins over several days but the dramatic descent on the squares shortly after dawn came as a surprise to many. Al-Azhar, Sunni Islam's main seat of learning, which sided with the military in its overthrow of Morsi on July 3, distanced itself from the crackdown.
Witnesses and an AFP correspondent said after firing tear gas security forces surged into Rabaa al-Adawiya, sparking pandemonium among the thousands of protesters who had set up the camp soon after Morsi was ousted. Men in gas masks rushed to grab each canister and dunk them in containers of water, as the main stage near the mosque of the camp blared Islamic anthems and protesters chanted "Allahu Akbar" (God is greatest.)
Clashes quickly erupted between protesters and security forces on the outskirts of the camp, with automatic fire reverberating across the square.
Protest leaders wearing gas masks stood defiantly on a stage while crowds of people wearing face masks stood amid the swirling tear gas as bulldozers began dismantling the camp. In the smaller of the protest camps at Al-Nahda square in central Cairo, police said they took control of the square after two hours. Television footage showed flattened tents, as women and children flanked by police and army troops were led out of the square.
Dozens rounded up in the dispersal were shown sitting on the ground, handcuffed and surrounded by security forces. But on Wednesday evening, hundreds of supporters of Morsi were given safe passage out of a Cairo protest camp stormed by Egyptian security forces.
Television footage showed Morsi supporters leaving the Rabaa al-Adawiya encampment through a security corridor, some flashing victory signs. A security official confirmed to AFP that hundreds of people were taking advantage of the safe passage offer but said some diehards stayed behind amid renewed clashes with security forces. The violence came amid international appeals for calm. Berlin called on all sides to renounce violence and return to negotiations and Britain, Iran and Qatar condemned the use of force by Egyptian police.It was a dramatic turn of events for the Muslim Brotherhood, who just over a year ago celebrated Morsi's win as Egypt's first elected president.But his turbulent year in power, marred by political turmoil, deadly clashes and a crippling economic crisis, turned many against the Islamist movement. On June 30, millions took to the streets to call on the army to remove Morsi. Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood urged Egyptians to take to the streets in their thousands to denounce the "massacre"."This is not an attempt to disperse, but a bloody attempt to crush all voices of opposition to the military coup," Brotherhood spokesman Gehad al-Haddad said on Twitter. The Rabaa al-Adawiya protest camp, where several Brotherhood leaders had been staying, "is calling on Egyptians to take to the streets to stop the massacre," Haddad said. But the anger against the Islamist movement was evident Wednesday as residents of several neighborhoods clashed with Morsi loyalists. In Cairo, supporters of the deposed president blocked several roads in the central Mohandesseen neighborhood, and were working to set up a new protest camp there, witnesses said. Police were deployed in the area where tear gas was fired and gunshots heard.
Clashes also erupted between security forces and Morsi loyalists in the northern provinces of Alexandria and Beheira, the canal provinces of Suez and Ismailiya and the central provinces of Assiut and Menya.
In Menya, witnesses said the Saint Ibram and Virgin Mary church and the Saint Mina church were torched. Assailants also threw firebombs at Mar Gergiss church in Sohag, a city with a large community of Coptic Christians who comprise up to 10 percent of Egypt's 84 million people, causing it to burn down, the agency said. Coptic Pope Tawadros II, together with Al-Azhar's Tayyeb, had supported the military and sat by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi when he announced that Morsi had been deposed and laid out a new political roadmap for the country. As authorities struggled to contain the unrest in the country, Egypt's railway authorities announced that all trains had been grounded to prevent protesters from moving outside of Cairo and reassembling. Wednesday's crackdown came just hours after the United States urged the military-backed interim government to allow Morsi supporters to protest freely. The United States, which provides $1.5 billion in mostly military aid to Egypt every year, maintains close ties to the Egyptian military but says it favors a rapid return to elected civilian rule.
Source/Agence France Presse.

Egypt VP, Nobel Laureate ElBaradei Announces Resignation
Naharnet /Egyptian vice president, Nobel laureate Mohammed ElBaradei, announced his resignation in a letter to the interim president on Wednesday seen by Agence France Presse. The resignation comes after scores were killed in a crackdown by security forces on loyalists of ousted Islamist president Mohammed Morsi. "It has become too difficult to continue bearing responsibility for decisions I do not agree with and whose consequences I fear," ElBaradei said. He said his conscience was troubled over the loss of life "particularly as I believe it could have been avoided"."Unfortunately those who gain from what happened today are those who call for violence and terror, the extremist groups," he said. Source/Agence France Presse.

Israeli Army Releases Syrian Shepherd Abducted in Shebaa Farms
Naharnet /Israel released at dawn a Syrian shepherd, who was abducted by commandos on Tuesday, after questioning him and warning refugees of crossing into the Golan Heights. The Syrian refugee, Mohammed al-Badawi, was kidnapped from the occupied Shebaa Farms after the commandos crossed the Blue Line and advanced 100 meters into Lebanon. The 30-year-old Syrian, who hails from the Beit Jen town in Damascus' countryside, was interrogated by the Israeli army about the situation on the ground in Syria. He was warned not to cross into the Golan Heights and tasked to inform all the refugees about the matter as the Israeli army “will not hesitate to open fire without giving any warning,” the state run National News Agency reported. The latest Israeli violation of the border took place last Wednesday when four Israeli soldiers were injured in a landmine blast along the northern border with Lebanon. The patrol of the Israeli army penetrated 400 meters inside Lebanon in the Labbouneh area at 00:24 local time, a statement released by the Lebanese army said. Meanwhile on July 8, a 15-member Israeli commando force crossed the border of the occupied Shebaa Farms and abducted Lebanese shepherd Youssef Hussein Rhayyel. Rhayyel was freed later that night, several media outlets reported.

Canada Deeply Concerned by Deadly Violence in Egypt
August 14, 2013 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement: “Canada is deeply concerned by reports overnight of deadly violence in Egypt. We urge all parties to refrain from violence and engage in a meaningful political dialogue for the good of all Egyptians. “Our thoughts go out to the families and friends of those killed by today’s violence, and we wish a speedy recovery to the injured. “Canada firmly believes that implementing a transparent democratic system that respects the voices of all Egyptians, including members of civil society and religious minorities, is the best way to restore calm and give all Egyptians a stake in the future stability and prosperity of their country. “The two parties must immediately sit down together, reconcile their differences and work tirelessly to halt this deadly standoff. “I urge all Egyptians to show restraint and resolve in the coming days.”

'Islamophobia' in the Bay Area?
by Stephen Schwartz/American Thinker
http://www.meforum.org/3582/islamophobia-san-francisco
According to "The Bay Area Muslim Study: Establishing Identity and Community," (BAMS) the San Francisco Bay Area, long known for its tolerance towards minorities and adherence to multiculturalism, is a hotbed of "Islamophobia."
Its principal author is Hatem Bazian, a senior lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley's Near Eastern Studies Department, director of Berkeley's Islamophobia Research & Documentation Project, which advertises BAMS at its website, and "Academic Affairs Chair" at Zaytuna College in Berkeley. Bazian's co-author is Farid Senzai, an assistant professor of political science at Santa Clara University, a Jesuit school, and a faculty member (subject undisclosed) at Zaytuna. Senzai is also director of research at a little-known entity originating in Detroit, the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), which co-commissioned the May, 2013 Bay Area study.
BAMS is the latest effort by Islamists to use their stature in academe to deceive the Western public about their extremist agenda and the interests of Muslims in general. It is fatally flawed in its methodology, the evidence it musters does not support its conclusions, and it is little more than propaganda to use as a political bludgeon against anyone who objects to radical Islam. No scholarly tool for understanding the Muslims of the Bay area, it will be used to silence critics and stifle debate.
The study was commissioned officially by the One Nation Foundation, a philanthropic effort established by George F. Russell, Jr., a financial services adviser in Gig Harbor, Wash., and ISPU. One Nation and ISPU partnered with such well-known local public service organizations as the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, Marin Community Foundation, and Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders in Philanthropy. Most of these institutions were likely drawn innocently into the project, which is described by its authors as intending to:
[B]etter understand who is in the community, what languages they speak, what their educational attainment levels are, what their immigration status is, what the levels of employment are, what civic engagement means to them, and to honor their resilience in the face of continued misperceptions about the American Muslim community.
Only the final phrase of this statement, evoking "resilience," would betray that the inquiry, rather than presenting an objective portrait of San Francisco Bay Area Muslim life, was intended mainly to reinforce charges of wide-scale anti-Islamic bias in the U.S.
Data accumulation is credited to "the students at Zaytuna College and University of California, Berkeley Asian American Studies 128AC, 'Muslims in America.'" Zaytuna is described erroneously in BAMS as "the first four-year liberal arts Muslim college in the United States." (In reality, the American Islamic College in Chicago was established in 1981, while Zaytuna was founded in 1996.) Moreover, Zaytuna is unaccredited.
Statistical collection for BAMS is admitted to be inconsistent and incomplete.[i] A sample of 1,108 individuals was solicited through questionnaires in English, Farsi, Pashto, and Arabic distributed at community events rather than mosque services. Two key communities are underrepresented: "Afghan and Yemeni Muslims . . . restricted efforts to conduct the survey out of suspicion that the results would be used to harm the community," the study asserts. In addition, "the Yemeni Muslims in San Francisco and the Afghan Muslims in the East Bay, both . . . exhibited far lower levels of engagement with the broader Muslim community."
Any positive attributes noted by BAMS are countered by an emphasis on Islamist political grievances. Muslims living in the Bay Area, it claims, are concerned mainly with issues very far from the region geographically and socially, including "challenges" that were:
[S]trongly associated with the post-9/11 environment and the United States government's global campaign to 'counter violent extremism.' The Patriot Act and other laws have opened the door for targeting by government agencies, public anti-Muslim statements by prominent national leaders, and negative media coverage.
However, no such targeting, political denunciations, or negative media about Muslims in the Bay Area is cited in the study.
Nevertheless, the study declares:
[D]irect American involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, as well as in other areas, places the local Muslim community at the forefront of discussions and debates based upon these conflicts. Local community members remarked that they feel regularly called upon to deal with issues and events beyond their immediate control and circle of influence.
The authors blame U.S. policy for aggravating local Muslim sensitivities about such foreign concerns. Simultaneously, BAMS emphasizes the spread of Islamic "unity" as expressed by such rhetoric as this unidentified Muslim:
It doesn't matter whether I'm here or in Lebanon or in China. That doesn't matter to me. . . . It's creating that Muslim environment and creating and growing as a Muslim. That's what I care about because in the end, to me, that's all that matters.
Above all, the study charges bias against Muslims ("Islamophobia"). "Discrimination Faced by Bay Area Muslims" shows 42 percent of respondents believing "Yes, very much" in a "Muslim discrimination problem," 23 percent alleging they were victims of "hate crimes;" and 50 percent purporting to "know a hate crime victim." These dismaying figures are followed by a disclaimer: "These results should be interpreted with caution, as they might be related to a broad interpretation of hate crimes. More research is needed in this area." The study does not provide a single empirical or factual instance of a hate crime directed against a Muslim in the Bay Area. This is mendacious propaganda, not social science.
In 2004, ISPU issued a similarly vacuous survey of Muslims in Detroit titled, "A Portrait of Detroit Mosques: Muslim Views on Policy, Politics and Religion," and written by Ihsan Bagby, associate professor of Islamic studies at the University of Kentucky. The new, Bay Area version, heavily padded with historical and banal measurements of hijab (headscarf) wear, frequency of mosque attendance, and other common Muslim practices, is a shoddy pamphlet stamped with Zaytuna's imprimatur and projecting Islamist ideology rather than providing an objective sample of Muslims in the San Francisco Bay Area. The involvement of Middle East studies scholars in the production of this political tract will shock no one familiar with the politicization of the discipline.
*Stephen Schwartz is executive director of the Center for Islamic Pluralism. He wrote this article for Campus Watch, a project of the Middle East Forum.
[i] The demographic material for "The Bay Area Muslim Study" includes a count of 250,000 Muslims in the Bay Area, and a breakdown of 30 percent Muslims from South Asia, 23 percent Arab, 17 percent Afghan, nine percent African-American, seven percent Asian/Pacific Islanders, six percent whites, and two percent Iranian, supporting 84 mosques. The total accounts for 3.5 percent of the local census, according to the study. Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Egypt, and Yemen were the leading countries of origin, and only a third of those queried were born in the U.S.

Syria’s ‘liberated’ zones are anything but
By: Diana Moukalled/Asharq Alawsat
A young enthusiastic journalist describes northern Syrian areas as “liberated” zones in her report. She’s surprised that the expression “not under the regime’s control” is a more accurate and more professional. “They are towns liberated of the regime’s injustice,” she said to me.
“The liberated zones” is the expression which Syrian opposition figures have adopted ever since their revolution shifted from a peaceful one towards an armed confrontation with the regime. They use this term with a sense of pride to describe the towns, cities and areas that are no longer under the regime’s control. This expression continued to be used despite all the changes, transformations and chaos occurring on ground. The expression “liberated zones” conveys a longing for getting rid of the tyrannical Assad regime just like the expression “May God curse your soul, Hafez” carried built-up anger.
I still read the expression “liberated zones” in articles and reports on violations committed by some Free Syrian Army brigades and practiced systematically by extremist Islamist brigades. There is currently fierce competition for power between the Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant in the “liberated” zones.
There are reports stating that a leader from the Islamic State of Iraq proposed to arm and fund poor FSA brigades in exchange for the areas under FSA control. The FSA brigades rejected the proposal, so the leader revealed a belt of explosives wrapped around his waist. The brigades thus immediately accepted the proposal. The Al-Nusra Front is struggling to impose its domination against the expansion of the Islamic State which is considered more extremist. Both of them terrorize citizens. And both of them made more efforts to impose their control than they made efforts to confront the regime. As for the FSA brigades, that’s another story of division.
When reading articles and reports that contain the term “liberated zones,” I began to ponder a lot and pity those who live in these areas. There’s no doubt that confusion over several tragedies is not easy. The areas which are no longer under the regime’s control have also been taken hostage. It’s true that they have been liberated from the Baath Party but they are not free yet. The media’s efforts to distinguish between the FSA brigades and the Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State is almost non-existent. The picture thus becomes vague for those inside Syria and outside it.
Amidst this chaos, the media’s solution should not resort to the term “liberated” zones.
The situation in zones that are no longer under the regime’s control requires a more accurate description. Is a city that is no longer controlled by the regime and submissive to the fatwas of Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State “liberated”? Of course not. The Syrian revolution is made up of two confrontations, one with the regime’s battalions and its jets and chemical weapons and another with the Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State and their fatal fatwas.
The Syrians do not have the option of choosing between the two. Finding a third option has become necessary despite the difficulties. Protests and confrontations in Saraqeb and Aleppo show the search for a third option has begun. Finding another way may be an almost insurmountable task for the Syrian revolution, but it is essential—whoever who kidnapped Father Paolo cannot be anything but a terrorist, just as he who throws barrels of explosives from jets is a criminal.

A Harsh Mood in Cairo

By: Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat
“Even in the days when tourists were a target of terrorist acts by extremists, we did not see a decline in business and the number of bookings such as the one today,” a receptionist at a hotel in Cairo said. Of course, the receptionist was comparing the first half of the 1990s, which saw an upsurge of terrorist activities, with the present. Perhaps now the holy month of Ramadan, during which the number of tourists drops, have combined with the tense atmosphere caused by the Muslim Brotherhood’s rallies and threats. Despite the dramatic events, Cairo in Ramadan remains charming, with people staying up late in the city’s cafes. The difference this time is that people are clearly worried about their future. Waiters’ eyes are fixed on the big screens which most restaurants and cafes have tuned the latest news about when and where protests will be taking place and the statements issued by the government, as well as openly exchanging views among themselves. Everyone, young and old, is talking and breathing politics.
Another difference is that people now carefully plan their journeys to avoid roads and areas the Brotherhood might have blocked. Unfortunately, sometimes traffic is suddenly blocked due to a small Brotherhood protest outside the Rabaa Al-Adawiya and Nahda squares. Other than that, life appears normal. Restaurants and cafes are crowded and traffic in most areas, away from the Brotherhood’s gatherings, is as busy as usual with a huge number of cars roaming the streets as well as long lines of people waiting in front of sweet shops before Iftar. As for Cairo’s new neighborhoods, people are enjoying their lives and many middle and upper middle class families head to the villages and cities along the northern coast during the summer as usual. Taxi drivers who some think reflect public mood do not conceal their anger of what they call a “financial crisis” due to a decline of business under the Brotherhood’s rule.
Rumors are rife in Egypt and each is spread and denied several times. However, no one can fail to realize that the public mood, particularly of the middle class, is strongly opposed to the Brotherhood and their allies and the ones staging the rallies in Rabaa Al-Adawiya and Nahda squares as well as traffic blockages. The public often appears to be more firm than the interim government, demanding decisive and rapid measures even if it will cost them a high price. Although the popularity of the military jumped enormously after June 30, no one can guarantee the public’s mood, which is currently hungry for a showdown, will not change if much blood is shed. Most Egyptians do not like to see blood. Perhaps this is what the Brotherhood is betting on following the historic defeat it suffered after a year in power. The group is currently behaving in a manner tantamount to political suicide, with its unrealistic demands and acts which some liken to acts of revenge on society. The Brotherhood is intentionally turning a blind eye to the public atmosphere opposing its policy, as well as the outrage of the residents in the areas where they are staging rallies. The Brotherhood made a great mistake by failing to realize that the massive protests on June 30 and after was a sign of impatience at the group’s one-year-rule on the part of the public majority who had a desire for change. There might be many reasons for June 30 among which is the way affairs were administered; however, it is certain that part of the reason lies in the public’s concern over the Brotherhood’s attempt at changing Egyptian’s lifestyles. How will things end? Probably, as time goes by people will have blown off steam, retained their calm and rethought their plans. The money some say is being used to fund protestors will be exhausted soon. This is not to mention that the public appears to be determined to see change. Challenges facing the interim and future rulers will be enormous especially in the economic sphere. However, restoring stability in itself will give tourism and business an immediate push, which people will be able to see.

Pre-Negotiations and Political Realities Frame Israeli-Palestinian Talks
Kenneth Stein/Washington Institute
Preliminary negotiations and changing political realities have catalyzed the opening of new talks, but even a two-state agreement would not guarantee an imminent end to the conflict.
For the four decades that the United States has been involved, a rhythm has emerged in the start, success, and failure of Arab-Israeli negotiations. More than two dozen mediators, including presidents and secretaries of state, have dedicated immense amounts of time while enduring myriad disappointments. A close reading of Secretary of State John Kerry's July 30 remarks on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which unfolded the latest negotiations, shows that key lessons from past talks have been applied.
BENEFITS OF PRE-NEGOTIATIONS
Kerry did not state any preconditions for entering the talks, making no mention of highly contested final-status issues such as borders, economic development, Jerusalem, prerogatives of a Palestinian state, refugees, security, or settlements. These omissions mean that during pre-negotiations, Kerry and his team convinced Palestinians and Israelis to drop sensitive preconditions as terms of reference for the talks. If past experience is any guide, public discussion of these issues will create potholes along the negotiating road. During previous talks, Israeli, Arab, and other media often speculated and invented, claiming that what they wrote was authentic because it came from "reliable" -- but inevitably anonymous -- sources. Kerry addressed this problem emphatically, stating, "I will be the only one, by agreement, authorized to comment publicly on the talks, in consultation, obviously, with the parties. That means that no one should consider any reports, articles...or even rumors reliable unless they come directly from me, and I guarantee you they won't."
Pre-negotiations have other benefits as well. They inform points of view and create moments of mutual understanding, even if not agreement. Redlines may be explored and redefined, and differences on proposed negotiating procedures and substantive matters narrowed. Confidence-building measures may be used to soften hard edges: in the latest pre-negotiations, Israel promised to release Palestinian prisoners, Arab states endorsed the idea of land swaps, and Washington reassured Israel that its security concerns pertaining to Palestinian statehood and beyond would be addressed regardless of the outcome of the talks. Pre-negotiations can also produce early drafts of eventual agreements. In the current case, the preliminary stage established a common political horizon: writing a framework agreement that leads to a two-state solution.
Clarifying talks have facilitated past Arab-Israeli agreements. During secret meetings with former national security advisor Henry Kissinger before the 1973 October War, his Egyptian counterpart told him that President Anwar Sadat was prepared to negotiate with Israel in phases. Kissinger employed this suggestion of phased diplomacy when he took up the negotiating baton in earnest after the war. According to recently released documents from the Israel State Archives, when Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan met secretly in Morocco with Egyptian vice president Hassan Tuhami in September 1977 to discuss the nature (but not the detail) of an agreement, Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Sadat had already conducted penetrating discussions through Romania the month prior. Thus, the two leaders had taken the measure of each other weeks before Sadat's November trip to Jerusalem. Later, in advance of the September 1978 Camp David meetings, intrepid American diplomat Roy Atherton made multiple trips to the region to narrow differences. And the first drafts of the Camp David Accords were hammered out by two State Department officials before the historic summit, following meetings between the Egyptian and Israeli foreign ministers and Secretary Cyrus Vance in England the previous month.
Similarly, before setting the stage for the 1991 Madrid peace conference, Secretary of State James Baker travelled to the region nine times to garner participation and support from Israel and surrounding Arab states. Yet there was much less preparation and pre-negotiation prior to the 2000 Camp David talks.
Today, a close review of the "Palestine Papers" (released in 2011 by the Guardian and Aljazeera) shows that over the past several years, virtually all final-status issues have been discussed in enormous detail during various secret Israeli-Palestinian meetings in Ramallah, Jerusalem, and elsewhere. Moreover, top Palestinian and Israeli negotiators Saeb Erekat and Tzipi Livni have come to know each other well.
Yet while pre-negotiations are necessary for success, they do not guarantee it. Like Kerry, former secretaries Condoleezza Rice and Hillary Clinton made six trips to the region before Israeli-Palestinian talks commenced in Washington in 2007 and 2010, respectively, but those lengthy preparations did not ignite prolonged negotiations or achieve an agreement.
POLITICAL REALITIES
Arab-Israeli negotiations tend to begin when leaders calculate that their national interests (and, to some degree, their personal political interests) can be advanced. Negotiations are seen as a means of attaining finite objectives: ensuring sovereignty, securing territorial integrity, and enhancing a self-defined long-term future. Incentives sustain negotiations, stimulate agreements, ensure military and/or financial aid, provide for security guarantees, and allow for political recognition.
Leaders also enter negotiations because they want to curry favor with the prime mediator (in this case the United States), avoid being blamed for obstructionism, and/or ensure that core concepts will not be emasculated (e.g., Palestinians being forced by a surrogate negotiator to give up core principles such as the desire to return to pre-1967 Israel). After the Camp David Accords were signed in 1978, Jordan (which did not participate in the talks) was angry because Sadat had told Carter that he would negotiate on Amman's behalf. In 1991, Israel did not want the United States stampeding it into an international conference where Arab states might gang up on it. At the time, one of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir's motivations for agreeing to attend the Madrid Conference was to ensure that Israel would be able to speak for itself and not have to negotiate with the Palestine Liberation Organization. And like Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Begin before him, Shamir entered Arab-Israeli negotiations in part to sustain or improve relations with Washington. Today, one of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's main incentives for resuming talks may have been to secure U.S. assurances of unrestrained support in weakening Iran.
The politics of the moment also determine if talks will start, stop, or fail. When President Obama and Netanyahu started their new terms in office in January, the frostiness that was so much a part of their previous relations began to dissipate, opening a window for intensive pre-negotiations. And as Rabin did twenty years ago when he signed the Oslo Accords with Yasser Arafat, Netanyahu entered the new talks in part to address growing domestic concerns about the growth of Islamic radicalism in the region and the potential establishment "of an additional Iranian-sponsored terrorist state on Israel's borders." Both Netanyahu and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas want to prevent the deleterious effects that Iran, radical groups, and growing sectarian strife can have on Israel, Jordan, and a Palestinian state in the making.
Political realities also help explain why the September 2010 talks failed while the new talks seem to have a better chance of succeeding, despite remarkable similarities between Kerry's July 30 opening statement and former secretary Clinton's invitation to meet three years ago. At the time, the Palestinians were more eager to upgrade their political status at the UN than negotiate with Israel, while the Obama administration's already full Middle Eastern plate (e.g., winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) could not take the weight of intense talks. Israel had its own reasons for delay. With Gilad Shalit still a hostage and Israeli civilians under constant rocket fire, Hamas was seen as a strategic threat that had to be crippled economically and physically. And with Arab uprisings unfolding in early 2011 and the Iranian nuclear impasse seemingly coming to a head, Israel had multiple regional reasons not to place resolution of the Palestinian issue at the top of its strategic agenda. Moreover, the Israeli public was not demanding negotiations as it had in spring 2000 regarding withdrawal from Lebanon. Most Israelis also believed that President Obama was not a terribly good friend to their country, particularly after his June 2009 Cairo speech.
CONCLUSION
Since the early 1970s, the United States has been the primary trusted mediator, financier, and guarantor of agreements, and it is once again the lead choreographer. Yet when it comes to Arab-Israeli negotiations, no certain conclusions can be drawn in advance; historically, diplomacy in the region has often produced unexpected outcomes. Some negotiations have been suspended when leaders are unwilling to make necessary compromises or are forced to leave office, or when the mediator loses interest. And even if an agreement is reached, there is no guarantee that a two-state solution will end the conflict. (NOTE: The history and political background behind the two-state concept will be discussed in a separate PolicyWatch to be published this week.)
As for the current talks, there are at least two reasons to be skeptical. First, a Palestinian state would require financial assistance to survive economically into the foreseeable future, and with assistance would come pressures to conform to donor attitudes. Could such a state ever be free of external influences? Past experience shows that borders in the Middle East are often only suggestions.
Second, a two-state agreement would be transactional, including precisely stated demarcations and privileges, and perhaps eventually a treaty declaring that conflict is ended and all claims dropped. But for the conflict to truly be over, public attitudes and behavior must be transformed as well. Accordingly, expectations regarding the two-state framework's potential impact on the conflict should be lowered, at least for a generation. Time can allow patience to trump skepticism and transactions to become transformations. Yet even that is not guaranteed without the requisite political and public will.
**Kenneth Stein is the coauthor of Making Peace Among Arabs and Israelis (1991) and the author of Heroic Diplomacy: Sadat, Kissinger, Carter, Begin, and the Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace (1999). He teaches Middle Eastern history and politics at Emory University.

Egyptian army enters Cairo to enforce curfew under state of emergency. Death toll from clashes up to 149

DEBKAfile Special Report August 14, 2013/ Evacuated pro-Morsi protest site at Nahda Sq., Cairo/Egyptian security forces dismantled the two fortified pro-Morsi camps in Cairo Wednesday, Aug. 14, in violent clashes with protesters. When they spread to other towns, the interim presidency imposed a month-long state of emergency across the country and ordered the armed forces to help the Interior Ministry enforce security. A night curfew went into effect in Cairo and 10 provinces, enforced by the 2nd and 9th army divisions which rolled into the capital.
Early Wednesday, large security forces including Interior Ministry commandoes, carried out their anticipated raids to disperse the inmates of two camps who, for five weeks, refused to disperse until Mohamed Morsi was reinstated as president. Using tear gas, tanks and armored bulldozers, the officers quickly cleared the small camp at Giza, then battled most of the day to break up the larger, heavily fortified site in Nasser City, where tens of thousands of protesters, including many women and children, were encamped.
Western TV footage highlighted the violence and inflated reports of live gunfire, reporting that security forces had opened fire on unarmed protesters from machine guns and rooftop snipers. Those reports stoked Muslim Brotherhood claims of a massacre. Protest spokesmen cited figures which fluctuated between 500 and 2,200 dead and 7,000-10,000 injured. Later, the Brotherhood figure dropped to 300 dead and hundreds injured.
The Egyptian health ministry reported that 149 people had been killed, including 2 security officers, and up to a thousand injured in the day’s clashes across the country.
debkafile reports that Egyptian security force used live fire in two instances: When protesters started shooting police officers with weapons they had hidden in the camps, and against hard-core groups who withstood riot control measures, including huge amounts of tear gas.
Egyptian authorities reported 25 people died in disturbances which spread out of Cairo to Menia, Asyut, Alexandria, Ban Suef and other places. Muslim Brotherhood rioters attacked government and police buildings and, in Alexandria, damaged the famous library. They also torched five Coptic churces.
Sources in Cairo expect the military units which entered Cairo Wednesday night to follow the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood with further measures. Two Brotherhood politicians were arrested in short order.
Shortly after the state of emergency was declared, the Egyptian high command appointed 19 generals as provisional governors, effectively placing 84 million Egyptians under military rule for the period of the emergency.
It is hard to estimate its duration after the month decreed elapses, because the violent struggle between the military under Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi and the Muslim Brotherhood is not expected to die down any time soon.
Gen. El-Sisi is following a phased plan he prepared in advance for eradicating the Brotherhood as a political force in the land. It entails outlawing the movement and announcing a date for the election of a new president, for which he will stand and which the Brothers will be barred from contesting.
The Brotherhood too has a plan for resisting the military in escalating stages culminating in the downfall of Gen. El-Sisi. To achieve this, the movement has started going underground and operating a web of allied terrorist networks.
The Obama administration’s capacity to influence the coming course of events is limited. The Egyptian defense minister refuses to heed US demands to restore the country to democratically-elected civilian rule at this time - certain that it would only take the country back to Muslim Brotherhood rule.
He is not worried by White House rebukes or US and European threats to cut off economic and military aid to Egypt, because he has Saudi Arabia and the Emirates behind him. According to debkafile’s intelligence sources, they have pledged $40 million dollars to bolster the military in power and make sure that the Muslim Brotherhood is finally purged.
Wednesday night, the United States “strongly condemned” the violence in Egypt in a statement issued by the White House secretary from Martha’s Vineyard where President Barack Obama is on holiday. He accused “the new interim government of breaking its promise of a return to democratic civilian leadership and condemned the “return to a state-of-emergency law.”
All the same, said the White House spokesman, “talks are ongoing between Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Secretary of State John Kerry and their Egyptian counterparts.”
Bu beyond this, President Obama is evidently unwilling to go.
1. He is not about to directly challenge Gen. El-Sisi and the Egyptian army;
2. He will not pick a fight with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates as the military ruler’s backers;
3. He is not stepping in to save the Muslim Brotherhood from political extinction, although its loss would eliminate the key to the Middle East policy which he launched in 2009 and which presented the Brothers as a moderate movement and therefore America’s chosen senior ally in the Muslim world.