Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources/August 02/13

Two Rockets Hit Baabda Area, One near Presidential Palace

Naharnet/Two rockets fell in the Baabda area on Thursday evening, one of them near the presidential palace, in the third such incident in less than two months. “A rocket fell near the (army's) Command and Staff College in al-Rayhaniyeh as another rocket hit the garden of Elham Freiha's house, and both were fired from al-Mwanseh area in Dhour Aramoun,” state-run National News Agency reported. MTV said the rockets were fired from “a barren area in Souk al-Gharb” near Aley. A security source told MTV the attack caused no casualties among military personnel or civilians. “One of the rockets fell around 50 meters away from the defense ministry” in Fayyadiyeh, a suburb of Beirut, MTV reported. Al-Jadeed television said a rocket fell around 100 meters away from the presidential palace as Agence France Presse said it landed around 100 meters away from the palace's back entrance.
“The house of the army's intelligence director (Brig. Gen. Edmond Fadel) is close to the house of the Freiha family where one of the rockets landed,” al-Jadeed said.
MTV said one of the rockets landed near the house of the Saudi ambassador but failed to explode. Earlier in the day, Lebanon marked the 68th Army Day, with President Michel Suleiman saying it was time for the Lebanese state and the army to be the sole decision-makers on the use of the nation's capabilities. “It has become urgent to approve a defense strategy after the resistance's arms went beyond Lebanon's borders,” Suleiman said during a ceremony marking anniversary of the Lebanese army’s founding, in an allusion to Hizbullah’s military intervention in Syria. On June 21, two rocket launch pads were found in the Kesrouan area of Ballouneh after a rocket exploded in the Baabda town of Araya. The second rocket failed to launch. Sources told Naharnet back then that the relevant security and military authorities and the Presidential Guard were scouring the area, without ruling out that the presidential palace could have been the target of the rocket. In May, two rockets slammed into the Hizbullah stronghold of Beirut's southern suburbs, wounding four people.
 

Report: Suspect in Burgas bombing flew to Lebanon before blast

By REUTERS 08/01/2013
Reuters /WARSAW - A man suspected of organizing a bus bombing in the Bulgarian Black Sea city of Burgas last year flew to Lebanon two days before the attack that killed five Israelis and their driver, Polish news website tvn24.pl reported. Bulgaria said last month it believed the Lebanese Islamist group Hezbollah was behind the July 18, 2012 bus bombing that targeted Israeli holidaymakers, but it has not revealed all its evidence and Hezbollah denies any involvement. If one of the suspects flew to Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based, so near to the date of the bombing, that could strengthen the arguments of some EU states and the United States who say Hezbollah was complicit and want firm action against the group. The tvn24.pl website said, without naming its sources, that Meliad Farah, a 32-year-old Australian citizen of Lebanese origin, took the LO 145 flight from the Polish capital Warsaw to Beirut in Lebanon on July 16. Earlier on the same day, Farah, also known as Hussein Hussein, had flown to Warsaw from Prague on the LO 526 flight, also operated by Polish national carrier LOT, the website said.
Bulgarian prosecutors allege that Farah and a second man, Hassan El Hajj Hassan, provided the explosive device and logistical support, while a third man carried out the bombing itself. Prosecutors said this man died in the attack. Dariusz Slepokura, spokesman for the regional prosecutor's office in Warsaw, said Bulgaria had asked Polish authorities at the beginning of March to look into the alleged stay of one of the suspects in Poland.
He said Polish prosecutors had sent a reply to Bulgaria on May 13. Slepokura declined to discuss the details of the case. The European Union agreed on July 22 to put the armed wing of Hezbollah on its terrorism blacklist over concerns the Lebanese militant group was involved in the deadly bus bombing in Burgas and in the Syrian war.

Hizbullah Sets Up Banner Saying 'We Are Coming' on Border with Israel
Naharnet /Hizbullah has set up a large banner near the border with Israel with the phrase "we are coming" in Arabic and Hebrew, the state-run National News Agency reported on Thursday. "The banner was placed at the western side of al-Wazzani river mouth, near the border with Israel,” the NNA detailed. "This took place on the eve of Hizbullah's celebration of al-Quds Day." In the meantime, Israeli military activity was registered in the South as Merkava tanks were spotted in the region facing al-Wazzani area. "An Israeli military delegation was roaming the area and some of its members used endoscopes to watch Lebanese territories.”
Israeli air force also flew at a medium altitude in the South over the towns of Nabatieh and Iqlim al-Tuffah. As a response to the Israeli activity, army and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon troops were heavily deployed in the area.  Hizbullah is set to celebrate al-Quds Day on Friday near the technical fence in the southern al-Wazzani, during which the party's leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah is expected to give a speech.

Two Arsal Residents Nabbed after Meqdad Family Member Abducted
Naharnet /Young men who hail from the Bekaa border town of Arsal on Thursday kidnapped Lebanese citizen Youssef al-Meqdad while he was buying goods in their town, state-run National News Agency reported.
The abduction comes in retaliation for a recent robbery which Arsal residents have blamed on young men from al-Meqdad family, NNA said. Later on Thursday, LBCI television reported that "two people who hail from Arsal were abducted in the town of Maqneh in retaliation for the kidnapping of a man from al-Meqdad family in Arsal." Tit-for-tat abductions are frequent in the area and last month a Arsal resident was abducted on the road of the neighboring town of al-Labweh. In March, a tit-for-tat wave of abductions erupted between residents of Arsal and the Hermel region, after unknown individuals kidnapped 30-year-old Hussein Kamel Jaafar who hails from the Hermel town of al-Bustan. The incident prompted members of the Jaafar clan to nab several Arsal residents. In the wake of the kidnappings, the army deployed on the international highway and set up new posts, especially at al-Labweh's entrance which is the only route to and from Arsal.

Suleiman Says Only State, Army Should Decide on Defending the Nation
Naharnet/ President Michel Suleiman criticized Hizbullah without naming it on Thursday, saying it was time for the Lebanese state and the army to be the sole decision-makers on the use of the nation's capabilities.
“It has become urgent to approve a defense strategy after the resistance's arms went beyond Lebanon's borders,” Suleiman said during a ceremony marking the 68th anniversary of the Lebanese army’s founding.
“Out of our differentiation between the resistance and terrorism, it is time for the state and the army to be the sole decision-makers on the use of force,” said Suleiman at the Shukri Ghanem barracks in Fayyadiyeh, a suburb of Beirut. “The army's role would be difficult if a party or more get involved in conflicts outside Lebanon,” he said. Syrian government troops are backed by Hizbullah members in their fight against rebels seeking to topple President Bashar Assad. Hizbullah has played a major role in a battle last month in the town of al-Qusayr, which is near Lebanon's northeastern border, and lost scores of men there. But Suleiman said that “true martyrdom is only in the defense of the nation … The Lebanese people want sacrifices for Lebanon.”“We don't want the blood of our sons to be shed outside the nation,” he said. “The time when the army was forbidden to defend Lebanon has gone,” he said. “It won't be a disengagement force (in the fighting) between Lebanese armies and militias.” Suleiman stressed the army would be the sole defender of Lebanon and the country's borders if its capabilities were improved. “There is no security and dignity without the army,” he said, adding it needs an embracing environment because it “doesn't act independently from the state.”He appealed for political support to the army, saying “there should be a campaign in support of the military and not against it at this delicate stage.” The institution has lately come under criticism and was accused of targeting the Sunni sect after a battle between soldiers and supporters of Salafist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir in the southern city of Sidon. It has also been criticized for allegedly allowing Hizbullah gunmen to fight alongside soldiers in the Sidon battle. Several soldiers are under investigation for abusing supporters of al-Asir arrested during the gunbattles. But Suleiman defended the army against its critics, saying it “can't be held accountable for major mistakes committed by others and being scrutinized for its small mistakes.” The army can't be taken from its position of defense of the Lebanese to defend itself, he said. “The army is the defense line of the state and civil peace but it can't fill the political vacuum,” he said.
His speech came a day after a decision was issued by Caretaker Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn to extend the term of Army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji for two years after parliament failed to meet to make the extension.
“We sought to keep the army leadership in accordance of the defense law pending the role that the parliament and the cabinet would play,” said Suleiman. Thursday's ceremony was attended by Speaker Nabih Berri, Premier-designate Tammam Salam, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, ministers, lawmakers, diplomats, senior military officials and other dignitaries. It included a military parade and a graduation of a new batch of officer cadets. Suleiman called for the quick formation of a government of national interest that enjoys the confidence of the people and the parliament, and that is capable of confronting the soaring number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

Berri: Waiting for Syrian Crisis to End Will Only Exacerbate Problems in Lebanon
Naharnet / Speaker Nabih Berri noted on Thursday that Lebanon fell into vacuum due to the ongoing disputes among the rival parties, adding that a lack of political and security initiatives has thwarted a solution to the deadlock. He said: “The powers' banking on the conclusion of the Syrian crisis will not end Lebanon's problems.” He made his remarks in an interview with al-Shiraa magazine. Berri continued: “Stalling will only exacerbate problems in Lebanon and increase military wings, gangs, mafias, and militias.” “One can only count on a Saudi-Iranian understanding to end the deadlock,” he stressed. The speaker said that all sides are awaiting an expected visit by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani to Saudi Arabia to meet King Abdullah. “Perhaps Lebanon's crisis and other pending regional issues would be resolved,” he stated. Moreover, he warned of the ongoing repercussions the Syrian crisis is having on Lebanon, saying that the Baabda Declaration can still be implemented to ease the impact of the unrest. “Lebanon's interference in the Syrian conflict will not alter the reality on the ground,” said Berri.
“I see no near conclusion to the Syrian crisis,” he added. The 2012 Baabda Declaration calls for Lebanon to disassociate itself from regional conflicts, especially the one in Syria.

1 Dead, 3 Hurt as Fireworks Spark Blaze near Martyrs Square
Naharnet /One person was killed and three others were injured on Thursday in a major blaze triggered by fireworks at Beirut's Martyrs Square near the headquarters of An Nahar newspaper, state-run National News Agency reported. Earlier, a loud blast was heard during a live report broadcast by OTV from the location and the camera captured the scene of several cars that went up in flames at a parking lot. Firefighting vehicles quickly scrambled to the scene from the nearby headquarters of the Beirut Fire Department and started dousing the flames. Less than an hour before the incident, a mass popular rally was held at Martyrs Square in celebration of the 68th Army Day. It was not immediately clear, however, if the fireworks were linked to the event. Later on Thursday, the National News Agency said several people were injured when the fireworks they brought to celebrate Army Day accidentally exploded. It described the group's move as a “personal initiative” that was not linked to the organizers of the Martyrs Square's rally. Source/NaharnetAgence France Presse.

Assad Visits Daraya near Capital as he Pledges Victory against Rebels
Naharnet/Syrian President Bashar Assad made a visit on Thursday to the town of Daraya outside Damascus, a former rebel bastion now mainly under government control, state television reported. The broadcaster aired no immediate footage to accompany its report. It was one of the few occasions that Assad had been reported to have traveled outside the capital since an uprising against his rule erupted in March 2011. It came as he sent an Army Day message to troops telling them he was "sure of victory" over the rebels. "If we in Syria were not sure of victory, we would not have had the will to resist nor been able to persevere in the face of more than two years of aggression," he said. "I have great faith in you and confidence in your ability to... fulfill the national mission that has been assigned to you," Assad told troops in the message. "You have shown rare courage in the battle against terrorism and you have impressed the whole world with your resistance... in one of the most brutal and ferocious wars of modern history," he said. His comments came after troops recaptured a key neighborhood of the strategic central city of Homs on Monday in the biggest gain so far of a month-long assault. The army has also been on the offensive in the eastern suburbs of the capital and west of the main northern city of Aleppo. The 28-month conflict has killed more than 100,000 people, according to the United Nations, but U.N. efforts to convene a Russian- and U.S.-backed peace conference have stalled. Source/Agence France Presse.

Qahwaji Says Army Will not Bow to Difficulties, Will Confront Dangers
Naharnet /Army Commander Gen. Jean Qahwaji vowed on Thursday to work hard to ward off dangers, praising President Michel Suleiman for his patriotic stances.
Qahwaji said in a speech he made at Baabda palace in the presence of Suleiman and high-ranking officers that the military will exert all efforts to confront dangers.
“We will not bow to difficulties but we will implement our military oath,” he said.
“Army Day comes this year amid difficult circumstances caused by internal divisions that are reflecting negatively on the uniformity of the state's work and on the lives of the citizens,” he said.
He praised Suleiman for his “patriotic stances” and his “ultimate support for the army” to keep security and avert strife. “The army is working day and night to improve its competence to confront any emergency,” he said.
Qahwaji's visit to the presidential palace came after he attended along with Suleiman and top leaders the Army Day ceremony at the Shukri Ghanem barracks in Fayyadiyeh. During the graduation ceremony of officer cadets, Suleiman said it was time for the state and the army to be the sole decision-makers on the use of force. “The army's role would be difficult if a party or more get involved in conflicts outside Lebanon,” he said in reference to Hizbullah, whose fighters are backing Syrian troops loyal to President Bashar Assad in their battle with rebels.Qahwaji said in his Order of Day on Wednesday that there wouldn't have been any fear of vacuum if the political life was running smoothly and disputes didn't govern ties between parties. Caretaker Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn signed a decision to extend Qahwaji's term for two years.

Berri Calls on Lebanese to Support Army, Says Differences with Aoun on Details
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri said on Wednesday that exerted efforts that aim at fortifying the military institution are required, pointing out that he agrees with Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun on the general principles only. “Every measure we take that helps safeguard the army and fortify its task in maintaining the country's stability and security is a necessary step that should be fully supported,” Berri told al-Joumhouria newspaper on the 68th Army Day. He noted that the decision to extend Army Chief General Jean Qahwaji's mandate for two years activates his role and helps keep the army intact.
“The extension formula that was adopted is legal,” Berri told the daily. On the eve of the Army Day, caretaker Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn issued an administrative decision to extend the term of Qahwaji and that of Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Walid Salman for two years after the parliament failed to take such a move. Qahwaji's term expires on September 23 when he turns 60 – the retirement age for army commanders, while Salman's term ends on August 7. Most of the political parties voiced support to the extension decision but FPM chief Aoun rejects any attempts to extend Qahwaji's term, describing it as "illegal."Asked about his ties with Aoun, the AMAL leader said that they both “agree on the general concepts such as Lebanon's Arabism and the resistance, but we have many disputes over the details.”The FPM chief had previously said that disagreements in the March 8 alliance was not with Hizbullah, a veiled reference to the party's ally, Berri. For his part, Berri stated coalition is no longer unified.

Jammo's Relative Re-enacts his Crime in Sarafand
Naharnet/A relative of Syrian journalist Mohammed Darrar Jammo re-enacted on Thursday in Sarafand under the supervision of the prosecutor of the south, Judge Samih al-Hajj.
“I am not ashamed, I am holding my head up high and I am not afraid... No one really knows him,” Ali Younis, the nephew of Jammo's wife, said as he re-enacted the crime. Jammo was killed on July 17 in Sarafand in southern Lebanon. Judge Samih al-Hajj stressed that the crime is not political. “Re-enacting the crime is to prove to people that the judiciary and security forces will follow all criminals and detain them,” al-Hajj told reporters.
He said that the investigation is confidential, pointing out that the media didn't report the truth about the crime. Later on Thursday, First Military Investigation Judge in the south Munif Barakat issued arrest warrants against Siham Younis, Jammo's wife, her brother, and nephew in his murder. The death sentence was demanded on Tuesday against the three suspects. On Monday, three of Jammo's relatives were released from custody. It said that his daughter Fatima, sister-in-law, and brother-in-law were acquitted over a lack of evidence that they were linked to his murder. His wife was arrested on suspicion that she may have planned the crime. The 44-year-old journalist and political commentator was one of Syrian President Bashar Assad's and Hizbullah's staunchest defenders. In frequent appearances on television talk shows, he would staunchly support the Syrian regime's strong-armed response to the uprising and in at least one case shouted down opposition figures, calling them "traitors." He was killed when his wife's relatives burst into the first floor of his apartment in the town of Sarafand and opened fire on him. Initial reports that the murder was politically motivated were ruled out when security forces detained the relatives.

U.S. Calls Assad Instagram Account 'Repulsive'
Naharnet/The United States on Wednesday denounced as "repulsive" an Instagram site by Syrian President Bashar Assad, saying it did not reflect the reality of the civil war. The embattled Syrian leader's office took to the social media site to post pictures that include Assad greeting supporters and his wife Asma comforting the injured. "This is nothing more than a despicable PR stunt," State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters. "It's repulsive that the Assad regime would use this to gloss over the brutality and suffering it's causing," she said. Harf said the Instagram account ignored the "horrific atrocities" in Homs and elsewhere in Syria.
"We would encourage people to take a look at unfiltered photos of what's actually happening on the ground," Harf said. Comments on the Instagram account praise the secular-minded Assad for fighting "terrorism" and Islamists and criticize foreign media coverage of the conflict. However, occasional comments on the account -- instagram/com/syrianpresidency -- blamed Assad for civilian deaths.
Users need to follow the account to leave comments, providing a way to remove critical remarks.The United Nations says that more than 100,000 people have died in a war that erupted when security forces cracked down on dissent in March 2011.The United States has called for Assad to step down and is assisting the mostly Sunni rebels.But unlike Sunni Arab monarchies such as Qatar, the United States says it is only providing "non-lethal" aid.
Source/Agence France Presse.

Now, a Complete Picture
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Alawsat
The picture is now complete and clear, with no need for any “retouching.”
First, the neutralization of Egypt’s dynamic pan-Arab role is now under way after the expected failure of the Muslim Brotherhood’s experience in power.
Second, the project to annihilate Syria is being rapidly and steadily carried out before it will be officially approved at the Geneva II conference. This project is being carried out in cooperation between the Assad regime, its regional allies, their own sponsors (declared or undeclared), and the US administration. This is the same US administration that appears to remain committed to the “new Middle East” project despite the change in the political affiliation of the White House.
Third, the process of ultimately destroying the Palestinian cause by ruining any chances for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state is also under way. The US choice of Martin Indyk to serve as a new “envoy” to fruitless negotiations between the Palestinians and Benjamin Netanyahu serves as testimony to this.
Some must still recall that Barack Obama went back on all of his commitments towards the Middle East, letting down his first envoy, Senator George Mitchell, when the latter was confronted by Netanyahu’s veto. This is not to forget—in a somewhat naïve way—that the credibility of any envoy or mediator stems from the principle of being neutral or equidistant from both sides.
Fourth, the confusion over “political Islam” has reached a critical stage, reflected in part by the sectarian conflict which has been hastened by the “Iranian project,” particularly given that the growing Takfirist–Jihadist phenomenon has become Iran’s most profitable investment in terms of its international relations.
Today, Tehran is playing up the risk this phenomenon poses to the Western countries in an effort to secure an alliance on the pretext of fending off these Takfirists and Jihadists, which both the West and Iran regard as a common enemy. By pursuing this tack, Iran is seeking to rehabilitate its status as a regional power, presenting itself as an ally whose services would be indispensable in confronting the Takfirist–Jihadist threat. Perhaps Syrian representative to the UN Bashar Jaafari’s repeated statements to the Security Council provide the clearest indication of such a policy. In his own way, Jaafari has been offering the international community a deal to cooperate, or shall we say ally, against the so-called Jihadists and Takfirists. Despite this, there is ample evidence that many of these Takfirist–Jihadist groups emerged and multiplied before the very eyes of the Assad regime, and indeed sometimes under its guidance. Several leaders of such groups were released from Syrian prisons specifically to serve the purpose of Mr. Jaafari and his political masters.
Let us now return to Egypt. Why is it that Egyptian citizens’ political choices are restricted to different stripes of “authoritarianism,” namely regimes that do not derive their legitimacy from the educated and responsible will of the people? One year of Muslim Brotherhood rule tangibly proved that this group does not believe in national consensus, which constitutes the necessary ground for democracy. Nor does the Brotherhood attach any weight to the opinion of others, the separation of power, or a constitution that ensures the protection of the minority as well as the majority. On the other hand, if protection of the homeland lies at the core of the duties of the armed forces, then we can only conclude that the military’s intervention on June 30 was justified.
However, one thing that is no less important than protecting the homeland from a single party’s injustices is sponsoring the establishment of a culture based on tolerance, confronting political marginalization and isolation, and emphasizing the “civilian” identity of the state, by which I mean a genuine civilian identity, rather than a theocratic or military one.
In Syria, however, the situation has gone far beyond this point. I assume that the Assad regime, acting on the instructions of its sponsors, is now in the process of carrying out its “Plan B” for ensuring the partition of the country. The regime’s insistence on subjugating the city of Homs and displacing its people, as well as the sectarian cleansing it is carrying out in the surrounding areas, represents a deliberate policy on the part of the regime. This is a policy that seems also to include abandoning territory in eastern and northern Syria, and perhaps farther south as well.
The effective role being played by Hezbollah (on Iranian orders) in fighting alongside the Assad regime on several fronts demonstrates that the project to partition Syria—a major part of the new Middle East project—is well under way. The geographical area that the Assad regime is keen to secure control over covers northeastern Syria (densely populated by Alawites), Wadi Al-Nasara (densely populated by Christians), and the areas surrounding Homs, in addition to the city of Damascus and Rif Dimashq governorate, which borders Lebanon. There can be no doubt that this geographical sector is buttressed by Hezbollah’s parallel project in Lebanon. This latter project has almost been completed thanks to short-sighted Christian cover provided by Michel Aoun, along with senior figures from within the Maronite Church who believe in the “alliance of the minorities.”
By monitoring Israel’s public statements, Tel Aviv appears to be quite comfortable with the Syrian partition plan, particularly in light of the success of the roles being played by the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in South Lebanon in ensuring the protection of the post-1973 borders.
Based on what has been mentioned above, I do not believe that we can separate the appointment of Dr. Indyk—a former senior figure in the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the most powerful pro-Israel lobby in the US—as US Mideast envoy from the Obama administration’s approach to the interrelated problems of the Middle East.
It would also be naïve to delusionally seek an explanation for the US administration’s insistence on pushing the Syrian opposition to attend the Geneva II conference minus the guarantees for Assad’s removal without taking into account the US–Israeli joint vision of the future of the region.
It would also be fruitless to resort to any other interpretation for the change in the Turkish tone towards Syria, moving further to embarrass the Arab countries that have recently concluded that it is impossible to co-exist with the Assad regime.
In this context, the topic of “political Islam,” particularly in terms of its Jihadist–Takfirist aspect, becomes a commodity to be bartered in return for justifications and pretexts. What is even more surprising is the position of those who stop at the visible impact of this Jihadist–Takfirist phenomenon without taking a closer look at the nature of such group’s alliances, and just who is exploiting them and why.

Ashton spoke, but who listened
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
How can the right message get to the right people? Egyptians are divided into rival camps, and their dispute is getting more complicated. They need someone to figure out a solution for this emergency situation because, as time goes by, it may become even more inflexible and complex. As clashes intensify, the solution becomes impossible. The trip to Egypt by EU’s diplomatic representative, Catherine Ashton, was an opportunity to test the waters before getting involved with the task of attempting to change the situation, which is complicated but not impossible to resolve. The opposition and the Muslim Brotherhood—whether through their funeral demonstrations or through protests that turn deadly—are incapable of forcing the army and other political parties to withdraw their decisions. Likewise, the other side, which has mobilized army tanks and millions of protesters, has also failed to force the Brotherhood to submit to the fait accompli of Mursi’s ouster. The issue at hand does not require well-informed sources to tell us what Ashton proposed during her visit. It is certain that she told the military that it cannot simply erase the ousted regime. She must have told the Brotherhood that it does not have the power to force the return of Mursi to the presidency, as too much has happened now. The expected solution she proposed is a political reconciliation in which early elections are held. I do not think she proposed treacherous ideas. Her body language and statements suggest she called for reconciliation and warned against being dragged into serious clashes. However, the concern is not of the clear messages she passed on, but the interpretation of what the two opposing parties may think are coded messages. Unfortunately, this is what usually happens in the region. Everyone strives to make interpretations rather than actually listen. Is it possible to misinterpret the clear message conveyed by the EU envoy? Yes. The Brotherhood could understand Ashton’s visit to Cairo to imply a rejection of the military, the interim government and support for the former government. On the basis of this interpretation, the Brotherhood would increase its stubbornness.
The current ruling parties, the Tamarod group, and clerics calling for “rescue,” may see that Ashton did not force them to adopt a solution and therefore may see maintaining their position without making any concessions to the Brotherhood as a possibility. The situation is critical in Egypt, but a solution is not impossible. There are things that can be agreed on in a manner that maintains the rights and preserves the dignity of both sides.
Everything can be negotiated, except Mursi’s return to the presidency—a demand that the Brotherhood knows will be impossible to fulfil. Thus, the solution can be as follows: a consensual cabinet, a short-term interim government and internationally supervised elections in which the Brotherhood participates. Then, everyone can return home claiming that they have got what they wanted.
Without this, the Brotherhood will not have a chance to participate in an open political process. And without the Brotherhood, there cannot be a genuine democracy. As such, a possible solution is an agreement to end the dispute with the understanding that Mursi will not return to power, and that neither the military nor the interim president Adly Mansour shall remain.

Egypt’s Brotherhood Needs to Change
By: Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat
Following last Friday’s events, the political situation in Egypt can only expected to worsen, becoming further aggravated and tense. There is now a dire need to ameliorate the situation, however the Egyptian liberal elites that are in control of the country’s media—its satellite television channels and newspapers—do not seem to be inclined in this direction. Rather, the Egyptian media elite seem intent on avenging themselves against the Islamists, who have received a number of painful blows over the past weeks. This includes the military’s ouster of president Mursi, placing him, along with a number of Muslim Brotherhood leaders, in jail, not to mention the shutting down of Islamic satellite channels, the suspension of the constitution, the dissolution of the Islamist-dominated Shura Council, and most recently the security crackdown against pro-Mursi demonstrations and sit-ins.This latest measure in particular will only serve to further aggravate the political situation in Egypt.
Anyone who monitors the Egyptian media scene today cannot help but notice the harsh discourse and language that is being used, as well as the general lack of objectivity. This is not to mention those calling for the comprehensive exclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood from the political scene in any upcoming elections. There are also those who are rejoicing at the prosecution and detention of the Islamists, as well as the forcible closure of their media outlets. This is something that completely contradicts the principles of freedom and liberty that post-revolutionary Egyptian media boasted of.
The source of concern here is not regarding the Brotherhood being denied their political rights. The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest and strongest grass-root political faction in Egypt. The Brotherhood has always been part of Egyptian politics, whether they were in power, in the opposition, or even in prison. The reality is that it would be practically impossible to dislodge the Muslim Brotherhood from the Egyptian political scene, in the same manner that it was impossible for the Brotherhood to dislodge their opponents when they were in power.
The real source of concern is that exploiting the state of rage caused by the Muslim Brotherhood’s failure to govern Egypt—which reached its peak with the June 30 protests—and using this to exclude the group from political life, or pursuing and arresting them under flimsy pretexts, will certainly create feelings of injustice and anger among a large group of youth. These youths are naturally inclined towards conspiracy theories to explain what is in their view hostility towards religion and the targeting of the Islamists. This would create an ideal breeding ground for terrorism. This is all taking place while Egypt is in recovery from such threats as a result of two important changes.
Firstly, there is the well known ideological review of the Al-Gama’a Al-Islamiya which renounced violence as a means of political change. Secondly, Egypt saw the successful inclusion of all Salafist Islamist political trends and currents, as well as so called political Islamic parties, in the post-January 25 revolution political process. These groups displayed marked progress in understanding the requirements of the political game as well as issues of political opposition, alliances, and pragmatism. This new and successful experience must not be aborted under any pretext, otherwise the country will face even greater difficulties in the future.
In the meantime, Islamist parties and groups have seen civil powers and organizations allying with the army, business sector, mainstream media, newspapers, and independent youth seeking more freedom and stability as well as greater job opportunities. After witnessing major Arab countries reject their rule, these Islamists must now review their own political calculations and considerations. At this stage, they must content themselves with competing for parliamentary seats until the situation is back to normal and until the incendiary Egyptian political situation stabilizes, even if this takes years.


Egyptian lessons for Lebanon
By Dr. Rober Chahine/Lebanonwire
Lebanon is a country very different from Egypt whether by its size, its population or its democratic traditions. It is very small compared to Egypt, whether by its surface area or a population less than one tenth that of Egypt. Lebanon’s population comprises about eighteen different religious confessions with some equilibrium between Christians and Moslems as well as between Sunnis and Shiites within its Moslem population. Egypt has a very dominant majority of Sunni Moslems with a significant but much smaller Coptic Christian segment. Lebanon has been known as the first democracy in the Middle East for more than seventy years. Egypt had a monarchy which was replaced by military rule or dictatorships emerging from the military until a little more than one year ago, when the so called “Arab Spring” culminated into democratic elections.
Therefore, with the above differences in mind, one would wonder what lesson Lebanon can learn from the recent events in Egypt. In a globalized and digitized world, Lebanon like Egypt being a member of the Arab community, which is now confronting turmoil and difficult change, should carefully watch the recent evolution of events in Egypt and examine its conscience. The removal of President Morsi and his Moslem Brotherhood from power and the resulting street violence in Cairo and other cities, should serve as a reminder to all Lebanese groups or parties, that they should avoid seeking any dominance or abusing any power they may have over their competitors or adversaries.
Since Lebanon achieved its independence in the early forties, its democracy was based on a covenant whereby the high elected positions in its power structure were divided amongst its major communities. Lebanon’s diversity was seen by most as a source of strength and the agreed upon division of power was intended to be a formula for stability and harmony. The system did work well for good stretches of time, but was jolted by several stretches of violence and instability. The three most serious such episodes (1958, 1975-1990, 2008) were all believed to be the result of outside interferences and the conscious or subconscious desire of one group or the other to grab more power. The 75-90 civil war, or war of others on Lebanese soil, resulted in 15 years of pain and suffering as well as major exodus of youth and intelligentsia. It still ended by a political settlement (the Taef Accord) sponsored by Arab and Western friends. None of Lebanon’s major communities could dominate or eliminate another.
Lebanon’s population has quadrupled since independence and its demography has significantly changed. Yet the basic tenants of the 1943 covenant have somewhat survived. Though the confessional divisions and distribution of power are unattractive, Lebanon has not been able to progress safely or satisfactorily towards a genuine secular democracy, despite aspirations and promises of occasional leaders. This may be not necessarily a pure responsibility or failure of the Lebanese society. It is significantly contributed to by its geographic and cultural neighborhood. When Iraq was freed of the totalitarian control of dictatorship, it gradually evolved towards somewhat similar division of power as Lebanon, whereby: the Prime Minister is Shiite, The President is Kurd and the Speaker of Parliament is Sunni Arab. Syria which was supposed to be the most secular of all Arab countries, is now not just facing some division of power similar to Lebanon or Iraq, but may be at risk of fragmentation, largely due to the perceived dominance of its government by a minority sector of its population. In view of outside influences and interferences, it is impossible to predict reliably the duration of the ongoing strife and the type of outcome that can be expected.
Despite an official position of the Mikati government to “distance Lebanon” voluntarily from the Syrian divisions and a noninterference pact referred to as the “Baabda Declaration” the Syrian events now constitute a serious threat to Lebanon’s stability and survival. Analysts now feel that intentionally or subconsciously, the majority of the Shiite community incited and supported by Iran and the Sunni community with the blessing of Saudi Arabia seem to be struggling for a better share of power, in anticipation of the Syrian outcome. The Christians who should have been the conciliators and diplomats working energetically to bridge the differences between their Sunni and Shiite brothers are unfortunately divided and supporting one side or the other. The recent public admission of Hezbollah that its forces are openly fighting inside Syria on the side of the Assad regime has now exacerbated the tension between the March8 and March14 forces in general and the Lebanese Sunnis and Shiites in particular.
The sad consequences for Lebanon is the continuous decay of its constitutional institutions and gradual worsening of its security situation, with armed conflicts erupting and spreading from one location to another. More than three months after the resignation of the Mikati government and the nearly unanimous nomination of Tammam Salam to form the new government, no new cabinet could be agreed upon due to the depth of the current divisions in the country. Outside Lebanon the concerned expatriates tend to speak more freely than inside Lebanon. Supporters of March 14 now feel that Hezbollah after using its arms against fellow Lebanese in May 2008 and now fighting openly in Syria against predominantly Sunni rebel forces, has lost its privileges to freely carry arms as resistance against Israel. They therefore insist that in order for Hezbollah to participate in the new government, it should at least officially withdraw its forces from Syria, in compliance with the “Baabda Declaration”. Supporters of March 8 fight back by alleging that the Mustakbal leaders are arming and financing the opposition forces in Syria as well as some Sunni extremists in Lebanon, of whom a good number cross the border to fight in Syria. Each side accuses the other of waiting for its allies in Syria to win so that they can dominate the politics in Lebanon.
The truth of the matter is that the situation in Syria is too complex and despite the significant role that Hezbollah is playing in the fighting, the final outcome will not be dependent or determined by any of the Lebanese players. Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia, the European Union and China will be much more important determinants. The final outcome may most probably be some form of political solution agreed upon by the bigger players. But at this time nobody is able to predict for how long the Syrian civil war will continue. The lesson for Lebanon from current Egyptian events and from past Lebanese history is that no group or political line should seek dominance. The results are always bad for all, but worst for those seeking dominance, even after winning democratic elections. In Lebanon, elections had to be postponed due to the shaky security and perceived instability. Nevertheless a major leader within March 14 recently stated that millions of Lebanese feel prisoners of Hezbollah’s dominant policies. It is not clear if or how such concern can be convincingly documented or contested. However Hezbollah does have intelligent and powerful leaders as well as important alliances. Until now they have skillfully and successfully participated in the democratic process. This may explain why the European Union added their military wing to the terrorism listings, theoretically leaving alone the political wing, despite the fact that in reality it may not be possible to divide Hezbollah into two wings. It should therefore be reasonable to assume that Hezbollah’s leaders would not like to be perceived as domineering in Lebanon and do not want to risk further isolation. On the other hand they can not capitulate and allow a perception of weakness following their past military successes against Israel and their current contributions on the Syrian battlefields.
The question is therefore can Lebanon safely survive waiting for the undetermined outcome of the Syrian crisis? Everybody seems to agree that Lebanon cannot afford to passively watch continued decay of its institutions and deterioration of its security. The best and may be the only pathway to a reasonable solution is a well prepared and skillfully executed dialogue. The Lebanese President who has constantly demonstrated his independence and has now acquired important experience in directing dialogue should have no problem in starting the process without delay. We are confident he will find impressive support from the expatriate community, which can present new ideas and will be ready to perform some facilitating leg work if he calls on them or just approve their desire to help. Lebanese politicians should temporarily put aside their short term interests and give priority to patriotism, conscience and even sacrifice, in order to protect Lebanon during these very difficult and dangerous times.
**Dr Robert Chahine, President, American Lebanese Foundation, www.alfusa.org