Analysis: Iran crossing red line with yellowcake uranium

By GIL HOFFMAN04/30/2013/J.Post

http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Analysis-Iran-crossing-red-line-with-yellowcake-uranium-311514
Former MI chief Yadlin's contention that Iran hasn't backtracked on its enrichment, unlike previous assessments by top Israeli and int'l figures, has serious ramifications for Israel’s security. Amos Yadlin JPost conference April 28 2013 Photo: Marc Israel Sellem/The Jerusalem Post
The 2013 Jerusalem Post Annual Conference at the Mariott Marquis Hotel in New York’s Times Square supplied many headlines.
Former prime minister Ehud Olmert angered Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and people in the room by downplaying the Iranian nuclear threat and defending the Second Lebanon War.
There were reassurances that Israel was not trying to push the United States to go to war with Syria from Ambassador Michael Oren and International Relations Minister Yuval Steinitz, the minister closest to Netanyahu.
Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan made his first media appearance following lifesaving surgery and came out swinging. Two of Israel’s top defenders, Prof. Alan Dershowitz and Post columnist Caroline Glick, snarled back and forth at each other.
But the biggest news with the most serious short- and long-term ramifications for Israel’s security did not come from the stage or the rooms behind the scenes where interviews took place. It came from Table Seven in the dining hall where VIPs were served lunch.
That was where former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin explained in closed conversations what he meant when he said at last week’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conference that Iran had already crossed the red line that Netanyahu set in a high-profile speech at the United Nations General Assembly.
The retired general’s INSS statement embarrassed Netanyahu, who made a point of defending himself at the start of Monday’s Likud faction meeting.
Yadlin told the Post at the lunch that Iran crossing Netanyahu’s red line did not mean that they have the bomb. Netanyahu set his red line at Iran acquiring the 250 kilograms of 20-percent-enriched uranium needed for a bomb if enriched further to 90%.
But that further enrichment – however quickly and secretly it can take place – still would have to be done for Iran to join the nuclear club.
The news from Yadlin was that Iran had not backtracked on its enrichment, unlike previous assessments by top Israeli and international figures. Netanyahu had been credited around the world with pressuring Iran to backtrack and convert 40% of its 20% uranium to fuel rods that cannot be used to make a bomb.
A Washington Post editorial even said US President Barack Obama should thank Netanyahu for proving that “clear red lines can help create the ‘time and space for diplomacy’ that President Obama seeks.”
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon characterized this backtracking by saying “you cannot make an egg out of an omelette.”
Comes Yadlin and says that that might be true, but Iran did not make a whole omelette. They only made a third of an omelette. Specifically, out of the 110 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium, only 30 kilograms became fuel rods.
The other 80 kilograms were made into oxidized uranium in a powdered form, or – to stay with Ya’alon’s metaphor – powdered eggs.
How do you make an egg out of powdered eggs?
Yadlin draws a chemical equation and says it can be constituted using yellowcake uranium that Iran possesses.
The IAEA says that Iran has 170 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium that have not been converted. Add that to the 80, and you get 250 kilograms, a crossed red line, an undermined prime minister and a serious problem.
Yellowcake does not sound appetizing to hear about over lunch. But it could end up making big news.

STL to Name Investigator to Probe Publication of Alleged Witness Identities
Naharnet/The U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon announced Monday it will appoint a special investigator to probe “three incidents which could potentially be considered interference with the administration of justice through publication of alleged witness identities.”STL President Judge David Baragwanath, acting as the Contempt Judge for the month of April, took the decision on Monday to have an amicus curiae (friend of the court) appointed by the Registrar, with the Judge’s approval, to further investigate these three incidents. The court said these incidents have been deemed confidential by the judge for the time being. The scope and timeline of the investigation will be decided at a later date.The decision follows a hearing on Thursday, held partly in closed session, where Baragwanath and the participants discussed whether proceedings should be initiated and, if so, the scope of any investigation in the matter. “To preserve the integrity of this investigation, Judge Baragwanath has ordered that these proceedings remain confidential until further notice,” STL said in its press release.
On April 11, the STL condemned “in the strongest possible terms” what it called “the latest attempt to interfere with the proper administration of justice by publishing a list of alleged witnesses and potentially endangering the lives of Lebanese citizens.”The website of al-Mustaqbal newspaper, which is owned by slain ex-premier Rafik Hariri's family, has been recently hacked and its front page was replaced with the alleged names of the “secret witnesses in the STL” by a group calling itself “Journalists for the Truth.” The list can also be found on the group's website. “Any attempt to knowingly and willfully interfere with the judicial process, including disclosure of confidential material or threatening, intimidating, or otherwise interfering with potential witnesses, is taken very seriously by the four organs of the Tribunal,” the STL warned. It confirmed that it had requested the assistance of “Lebanese authorities and others in this matter so that appropriate measures may be taken if necessary.”

PSP Tells Berri that Vote Law Proposal Doesn’t Guarantee Best Representation
Naharnet /A delegation from the Progressive Socialist Party informed Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday that a vote law proposal he had made does not guarantee the best representation for all the Lebanese. “We can't guarantee through Berri's proposal the best representation for all the Lebanese,” said caretaker Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour who visited the speaker in Ain el-Tineh at the head of the PSP delegation.
“We agreed with him that his proposal is not perfect,” he said. However, “discussions will be ongoing to achieve consensus,” Abu Faour said. “We should benefit from the coming days. That's why there will be intense talks with Berri.” Berri had reportedly proposed to the PSP chief, MP Walid Jumblat, a hybrid plan under which 55 to 60 percent of candidates are elected via the winner-takes-all system on condition that it is based on the one-man one-vote formula. The remaining 40 to 45 percent of lawmakers would be elected under the proportional representation system. The proposal also merges Shouf and Aley into a single electoral district. Local dailies had said Monday that the PSP delegation would inform Berri about Jumblat's rejection of the proposal. But Abu Faour stressed to reporters in Ain el-Tineh that there were solid ties between Jumblat and Berri.
“Our relations remain strong either on the cabinet formation process or on efforts to reach agreement on an electoral law,” he said. “Reports that we came to inform Berri about Jumblat's objection to his proposal are untrue,” the caretaker minister added. Jumblat also told local dailies that his ties with Berri will remain strong even if they had differences on the electoral law. “The vote law is just a detail and the discussions on the electoral proposals will continue,” he said. Berri, however, expressed regret at Jumblat's decision, saying the merger of the Shouf and Aley districts were in his favor. He said he was even ready to approve granting the right of 60 percent of MPs be voted under the winner-takes-all system and 40 percent under the proportional representation system. Berri stressed that the introduction of proportionality in the new draft-law was important to pave way for an advanced and developed political life in the future. Rival lawmakers have failed to agree on a new vote law despite the majority of parliamentary blocs' rejection of the 1960 law that considers the qada an electoral district and is based on the winner-takes-all system. The speaker is exerting strong efforts to bridge their differences ahead of a May 15 parliamentary session which will have only one item on its agenda – the so-called Orthodox Gathering proposal – if the MPs failed to reach consensus on a vote law. The proposal is the only draft-law approved by the joint parliamentary committees despite the objection of al-Mustaqbal bloc, Jumblat's National Struggle Front and the March 14 alliance's independent MPs.

Syrian Ambassador Meets Berri, Deems as 'Myth' Claims Hizbullah is Fighting in Syria
Naharnet/Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul Karim Ali slammed on Monday claims that Hizbullah is sending fighters to Syria. He deemed as a “myth” such allegations, accusing the media of distorting the facts in this issue. He made his remarks after holding talks at Ain el-Tineh with Speaker Nabih Berri. “The Syrian border villages include Lebanese and Syrian residents, so we must accept it when some Lebanese confront terrorists in order to defend themselves,” continued Ali. “Syria is keen on its people and its army and institutions do not need support financially or through fighters and arms,” he declared. “Those funding and arming the gunmen need to cease their actions in order for the crisis to end,” Ali stressed. He added that Syria will be victorious in the end and “those banking on the collapse of Syria, the resistance in the region, and the Palestinian cause will fail.”

British Minister from Beirut: Don't Send Your Sons to Fight and Die in Syria
Naharnet/British Minister for the Middle East Alistair Burt on Monday called on the Lebanese to refrain from sending fighters to war-torn Syria, reiterating “the importance of international community support to Lebanon's disassociation policy.” “As I discussed with Speaker (Nabih) Berri, President (Michel) Suleiman and the Army Commander (General Jean Qahwaji) today, I am pleased that we are, together, building Lebanon’s capacity to protect its sovereignty,” Burt said after talks with Berri in Ain al-Tineh. “At this challenging time, I say to Lebanon: ‘Don’t send your sons to fight and die in Syria.’ Getting sucked in to Syria’s conflict would be easy. Neutrality is the braver choice. Disassociation is the only policy that works for Lebanon,” Burt added. He called on all political parties to “engage urgently with PM-designate Tammam Salam to form a government and run the legislative election.” “Uncertainty in the region is no excuse for dodging the constitutional timeframe for elections. The technical work is done. Now it is time for all parties to put Lebanon first. I call on Lebanon’s politicians to agree an elections law to enable elections to take place within the constitutional timeline,” Burt said. “Burt later reinforced these messages with PM-Designate Tammam Salam. He also reiterated the UK’s readiness to support the transparent management of Lebanon’s oil and gas resources, noting the success of all six British companies in the oil and gas pre-qualification round,” said a press release issued by the British embassy in Lebanon.
Burt announced $400,000 of UK capacity building support to the Lebanese parliamentary elections. In his meeting with Qahwaji, Burt discussed “Lebanese stability and welcomed the increased cooperation between the UK and the Lebanese Armed Forces to protect Lebanon's sovereignty.”Burt also visited the offices of the U.N. High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), where he met Syrian refugees and highlighted the UK’s $40m contribution to the response to the Syrian humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. The British minister also heard from religious leaders from across Lebanon's confessions about the importance of “inter-faith dialogue in times of regional uncertainty.”
Before leaving Beirut, Burt will attend the first Social Media Awards in Lebanon, where he will discuss Digital Diplomacy and freedom of expression with digital activists, according to the embassy's press release.
“This is Burt's third visit to Lebanon and builds on the visit by British Foreign Secretary William Hague, in February 2013. Mr. Hague announced $17m for use in Lebanon bringing the total to $40m of UK funding for the Lebanon humanitarian response,” said the embassy.

Nasrallah to Tackle Latest Political Developments during Speech Tuesday
Naharnet/Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to make a televised appearance on Tuesday night. Hizbullah's al-Manar television said that his speech, set for 8:30, will tackle the latest political developments. The speech comes amid frequent reports that members of the party are involved in the unrest in Syria, especially in the border town of al-Qusayr where it is combating Syrian rebels.
Rebel activists stated on Saturday that six Hizbullah members were killed in battles in Reef al-Qusayr near the Lebanese border. These claims were confirmed by the municipalities of southern towns that released images of the dead. Lebanese and western officials have warned of the dangers of Hizbullah's fighting in Syria alongside regime forces. Salafist clerics Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir and Salem al-Rafehi had recently issued from Lebanon calls for jihad in Syria as a response to Hizbullah's involvement in the unrest. Nasrallah's speech also comes in light of the Israeli army's announcement last week that it had intercepted on Thursday an unmanned drone that tried to infiltrate Israel's airspace. The drone was downed a few miles off the coast of Haifa. Hizbullah has meanwhile denied having links to the drone.

Plumbly Meets Berri, Warns Time is Running Short to Form Cabinet, Agree on Vote Law
Naharnet/United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly encouraged on Monday political officials in Lebanon to form a new government and reach an agreement over a new parliamentary electoral law.
He said: “I said last week that time is short and obviously now it is shorter still.”He made his remarks after holding talks with Speaker Nabih Berri. “I believe that agreement is within reach of Lebanon’s leaders and I would encourage them to continue to work with the speaker and to redouble their efforts to achieve it,” Plumbly stressed. “On a number of occasions recently, members of the international community have stressed the importance of swift progress with regard to agreement on the electoral law,” he revealed. Plumbly and Berri also discussed the implementation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701 and regional developments, as well as the importance of sustaining Lebanon’s policy of dissociation from regional conflicts and respecting the Baabda Declaration. Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam is holding consultations with political powers to reach an agreement over a new government. He has repeatedly stressed that he is seeking the formation of a cabinet capable of staging and overseeing the parliamentary elections. Political powers have so far failed to agree on a new electoral law, which is threatening the postponement of the elections that are set for June 16.

Phalange: Hizbullah's Participation in Syrian War Contradiction to People-Army-Resistance Equation
Naharnet/The Phalange Party stated on Monday that Hizbullah's participation in Syria's conflict brings down the people-army-resistance equation, reiterating calls for abiding by the Baabda Declaration. "The equation has been stripped of its meaning after the resistance's role has transformed from exclusively facing Israel, to acting inside Lebanon and now to serve the Syrian regime in this critical period the region is going through,” the party's political bureau said in a released statement after its weekly meeting. It warned: “Hizbullah's involvement in the neighboring country's war exposes Lebanon to dangers that threaten its existence.” "We call again for abiding by the Baabda Declaration as it is a condition for security and stability.” While Lebanese authorities have officially followed the policy to distance the country from the Syrian conflict, last week, senior Hizbullah official Nabil Qauq defended the group's actions in Syria, where its elite fighters are reportedly leading the battle in parts of the Qusayr area of central Homs province near the border. He said the group's members were carrying out "a national and moral duty" to defend Lebanese citizens living in border villages inside Syria. The politburo revealed that it is following-up on the issue of the drone shot down by Israel on Thursday. "We hope Lebanon is not the source of the drone to avoid a military confrontation that the country cannot bear.”Israeli air force said on Thursday that it shot down an unmanned aircraft several miles off the coast of the northern city of Haifa after it entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon.
Israel's deputy defense minister Danny Danon accused Hizbullah of sending the drone. The party, however, denied his claims in a released terse statement. The Phalange's political bureau reiterated calls for creating an international donors' fund to aid Lebanon in hosting Syrian refugees, and for establishing camps in border regions. "They have become asylum-seekers not refugees and they currently make up almost 25% of the Lebanese population,” Phalange MP Samer Saade told reporters after the meeting.  He noted: "Is is a security and economic burden on the country.” "(Phalange Party leader) Amin Gemayel tackled this issue during his talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov who stressed that his country will work towards holding an international conference to discuss aid to be given to Lebanon,” the statement revealed. Earlier in April, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees revealed that the number of Syrian refugees who fled the turmoil in their country to Lebanon has soared to more than 400,000. Lebanon appealed in January for $180 million from Arab countries to help it meet the Syrian refugee influx that has threatened to bring the number of the displaced to 420,000 in June.

Tripoli Religious, Civil Figures Reject Arms Proliferation, Jihad Calls
Naharnet/Religious and civil figures from Tripoli on Monday rejected the proliferation of arms in their restive city and condemned the latest calls for “jihad” in Syria that were voiced by Lebanese Sunni clerics. There is a need to “spare the Lebanese arena any domestic conflict that might be sparked by the events in Syria,” said a statement issued by the dignitaries after a meeting at Dar al-Fatwa in the northern city. "Tripoli has never been and will never be a refuge or sanctuary for any elements who resort to violence or attack any person over his creed, religion, sect or even political views," said the statement. And as they slammed Hizbullah for “opening the door to fighting and jihad in Syria,” the religious and civil figures said they understand the reactions of rival parties, stressing the need to “control the border in Akkar, Bekaa and Hermel.”However, the dignitaries stressed that no figure should voice unilateral calls that could “implicate the city in things that are not in the interest of its residents.”Separately, the figures underlines that “the absurd war between Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh must not pop its head again at any given moment, as it is a destructive, meaningless war.”“We want security in our streets, schools and public facilities and we join our voices to reject any weapons that appear in the city at any occasion, for whatever reason and regardless of the party carrying them. The display and use of arms are religiously impermissible,” the statement added. "Anyone carrying a weapon is a sinner and a law violator and we urge security and political officials not to be lax in shouldering their responsibilities and arresting gunmen,” it said. The Tripoli figures threatened “escalatory steps” and warned that a civil disobedience might be declared should the current situation persist. Salafist cleric Sheikh Salem al-Rafehi of Tripoli announced recently that he has decided to “send men and weapons in support of our Sunni brothers in Qusayr.” He called on "all Sunni men to be fully prepared ahead of sending the first batch (of fighters) to perform the jihadist duty in Qusayr.” Islamist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir, the imam of Sidon's Bilal bin Rabah Mosque, has also announced the creation of the “Free Resistance Brigades,” urging whoever is capable of heading to Syria to go there to aid “the oppressed” in Qusayr and Homs. He also called for fundraising in order to finance jihadist fighters seeking to enter Syria “to support our people.”The calls were rejected by the mainstream rebel Free Syrian Army and by several Lebanese leaders including President Michel Suleiman and former premier Saad Hariri.

Fabius Hails Disassociation Policy, Pledges Aid in Hosting Refugees
Naharnet/French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius reiterated on Monday his country's support for Lebanon's policy of disassociation towards Syria's conflict, vowing to provide aid in hosting the Syrian refugees. "We are aware of the Lebanese efforts made in rescuing the refugees and we pledge to help in this respect,” Fabius said after meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati in Paris.
Commenting on this topic, Miqati noted during the meeting: “Lebanon can no longer deal alone with the humanitarian, demographic and economic pressures the issue of refugees is producing.” The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees revealed earlier in April that the number of Syrian refugees who fled the turmoil in their country to Lebanon has soared to more than 400,000. Stressing on the historical relations between both states, the French politician said: "France is committed to support your country in all fields to preserve stability, including endorsing the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon's mission in the South.”Meanwhile, Miqati thanked France for its support to Lebanon during his time in office, urging the European nation to back the cabinet's plan to develop the military institution's capabilities through training and providing the necessary equipment.

Al-Rahi from Brazil: Two Abducted Archbishops Not Involved in Syrian Crisis
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi demanded on Monday the release of the two abducted archbishops who were kidnapped in Syria. He said: “Their kidnapping has nothing to do with the issues of dispute in Syria.”He made his remarks during his trip to Brazil that is part of his ongoing tour of South America. “The abduction should not be linked to the crisis in Syria,” added the patriarch. “In the name of humanity, we demand the release of the archbishops and all captives,” al-Rahi said. Moreover, he called on the international community to halt the “war, killing, terrorism, and violence in the Middle East.”
Yohanna Ibrahim, head of Aleppo's Syriac Orthodox diocese and Boulos Yaziji, head of the Greek Orthodox diocese in the same city, were kidnapped last week near the Turkish border

Suleiman Orders Stronger Measures as al-Beddawi Buries Dead
Naharnet /President Michel Suleiman ordered on Monday stronger measures to preserve security and stability in northern Lebanon a day after three men were killed in clashes over a clampdown on illegal construction.
“Suleiman followed up the security situation in the country in general and specifically the North and met at Baabda palace with caretaker Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn, Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel, army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji and the acting head of the Internal Security Forces, Gen. Roger Salem,” a presidential statement said. The president “was briefed on the security measures taken in general and mainly in the North, and gave the appropriate instructions to implement the measures that would preserve security and stability,” it said. His instructions came as the residents of al-Beddawi neighborhood of Wadi al-Nahleh near the northern city of Tripoli buried their dead amid a tense situation that saw gunmen roaming the streets and opening fire in the air. Public and private schools in al-Beddawi were also closed. The fighting broke out on Sunday after Wadi al-Nahleh residents held a violent protest against security forces who were removing buildings that had violated regulations. Two citizens and a corporal died in the clashes, the ISF announced in a communique. Five policemen and several citizens were also injured. It said two police vehicles were torched and several others were damaged. State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr was on Monday overseeing the investigation carried out by the police in northern Lebanon

Jumblat: Ghassan Qanso, Not Current Political Rookies, Discovered Lebanon's Offshore Oil in 1975
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat revealed on Monday that Dr. Ghassan Qanso was the first individual to discover Lebanon's offshore oil wealth back in the mid-1970s.
He said in his weekly editorial in the PSP-affiliated al-Anbaa website: “Qanso must be credited for the discovery, not some political and non-political rookies who are marking illusory victories on a daily basis, while the Fatmagul Sultan power vessel is docked with a malfunction and unable to generate electricity.”He explained that Qanso had conducted a thorough report on the offshore wealth, which he presented to late President Elias Sarkis, however it could not be addressed due to the eruption of the Lebanese Civil War. “Even though years have passed since the report has been issued, its proposals can still be implemented today,” added the MP.“In fact these proposal could serve as roadmap for Lebanon's petroleum sector instead of the theories, analyses, and musings being thrown around by the current absurdist team,” Jumblat remarked. The PSP leader urged the entire Lebanese political class to read up on Qasno's report as “perhaps it may derive lessons from it other than the ones costing millions of dollars.”Scientist Qasno earned degrees in chemistry and petroleum studies. He received numerous accolades in Lebanon, the Arab League, and former Yugoslavia for his contributions.He passed away in 2005.

ISF Denies Asking Members Not to Wear Uniform in Public over al-Beddawi Clash
Naharnet /The Directorate General of Internal Security Forces on Monday denied issuing a memo instructing ISF members not to wear uniform in public in the wake of the deadly clashes that erupted in Tripoli's al-Beddawi on Sunday. “As the directorate highlights its deep confidence and close ties with all citizens and the components of the Lebanese society, it clarifies that it is still performing its duties in a regular manner, and it declares that these reports are totally baseless,” it said in a statement. The Akhbar al-Yawm news agency reported earlier on Monday that the ISF instructed its members not to wear uniform outside their barracks, “especially members who are heading to the North, as a precaution against any attack after the incidents that happened in al-Beddawi.” The directorate called on all media outlets to be accurate when publishing news related to the ISF and to obtain information on the work of the institution from its public relations department. Three people were killed, including an ISF member, in clashes over the removal of illegal constructions in the Tripoli area of al-Beddawi on Sunday. Residents of al-Beddawi neighborhood of Wadi al-Nahleh buried their dead on Monday amid a tense situation that saw gunmen roaming the streets and opening fire in the air. Five ISF members and several citizens were also injured in the clashes while two ISF vehicles were torched and several others were damaged.

Woman Wounded as Six Rockets Land in Masharii al-Qaa
Naharnet/One woman was wounded on Monday when rockets fired from Syria landed in Masharii al-Qaa border region. Al-Manar television said that a woman was wounded after six shells fired by gunmen in Syria landed in the Bekaa area. MTV later said that the wounded woman is a Syrian national and was in al-Riachi farm in Masharii al-Qaa at the time of the shelling. The National News Agency reported that the victim was taken to al-Hermel government hospital for treatment. Al-Mayadeen later said that the rockets were fired by gunmen in al-Qusayr border region.

State TV: Syrian PM Escapes Assassination Attempt
Naharnet/Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi escaped an assassination bid on Monday, surviving a blast that targeted his convoy in Damascus, Syrian state television reported."The terrorist explosion in Mazzeh was an attempt to target the prime minister's convoy and Dr. Wael al-Halqi was unharmed," state television reported. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights watchdog reported that a car bomb targeted Halqi's convoy as it passed through the Mazzeh district of Damascus, killing one of his bodyguards. Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman said Halqi's driver and a second bodyguard were also seriously wounded in the explosion.
An Agence France Presse photographer at the scene said several vehicles were destroyed in the blast, including a bus burned out by the explosion. The windshields of other cars nearby were also blown out.
Mazzeh is an upscale neighborhood in western Damascus, home to a number of senior regime figures. Halqi was appointed prime minister in August 2012 after his predecessor Riad Hijab defected to the opposition.
Source/Agence France Presse.

Suicide Bomber Kills Eight in Pakistan
Naharnet/A suicide bomber killed at least eight people and wounded 45 others when he rammed his motorcycle into a bus in Pakistan's northwestern city of Peshawar on Monday, police said. Violence has spiked in the nuclear-armed country ahead of national elections on May 11 with at least 56 people killed in attacks targeting politicians and political parties since April 11, according to an Agence France Presse tally.
Monday's suicide bombing targeted a senior official in the city administration, Sahibzada Anees, who passed by shortly before the blast in the Jehangir Abad neighbourhood.
"At least eight people were killed and 45 others were wounded in the suicide bombing," police official Mohammad Faisal told AFP. Hospital officials confirmed the updated death toll.
"The commissioner, who passed just a minute before from the road, was the target of the bombing, but he escaped unhurt as the bomber missed the target and struck his motorcycle into a passenger bus," Faisal said.
Body parts of the suicide bomber were also found at the blast site, he added.mBomb disposal officials said the explosives weighed up to six kilograms (13 pounds).
Source/Agence France Presse.

Al-Arabiya: Hezbollah commander Abu Ajib was killed in Syria clashes

Israel's Peres to talk peace with pontiff Pope Francis
AFP/Israeli president and Nobel peace laureate Shimon Peres left for Rome on Monday for talks with Pope Francis and the new Italian government, his office said. "I intend to personally invite Pope Francis for an official state visit to Israel and to strengthen the good relations that already exist between Israel and the Vatican," a statement quoted Peres as saying before his departure. "The Vatican has an important role to play in the stability of the Middle East and I am sure that this visit will contribute both to the state of Israel and to the cause of peace." In a message of congratulations to Pope Francis on his election in March, Peres said he "represents devotion, the love of God, the love of peace, a holy modesty and a new continent which is now awakening. "He'll be a welcome guest in the Holy Land, as a man of inspiration that can add to the attempt to bring peace in a stormy area," said Peres. Francis's predecessor Benedict XVI visited the Holy Land and met Peres in 2009. After meeting the pope, Italy's new Prime Minister Enrico Letta and its president on Tuesday, the statement said, Peres would on Wednesday visit the city of Assisi, birthplace of Saint Francis of Assisi, after whom the new pontiff -- Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina -- took his name. Palestinian Christians near Bethlehem on Monday urged Pope Francis to speak up against an Israeli decision to build its controversial West Bank separation barrier on a route they say would isolate their community. In an open letter the Christians of Beit Jala, a town near the city of Bethlehem, urged the pontiff to use his meeting with Peres to plead their case. "We respectfully ask you to make use of this meeting to pass a strong message regarding the people of Palestine, and particularly the case of Beit Jala's Cremisan land," it said. An Israeli court ruled last week in favour of constructing the so-called separation barrier through the 170-hectare Cremisan Valley, where many of Beit Jala's Christians work on the land and its vineyards.
The barrier's planned route would cut them off from the valley, and would effectively separate it from Jerusalem, which is five kilometers away, locals say.
 

The Driver
By: MARK PERRY
On the night of Feb. 12, 2008, an overweight middle-aged man with a light beard walked from his apartment in the Kfar Sousa district of Damascus to his silver Mitsubishi Pajero, parked in front of his building. It was already 10:15, and he was late for a meeting with Iran's new ambassador to Syria, who had arrived in the country the night before.
There was good reason for the man's tardiness: He had just come from a meeting with Ramadan Shallah, the leader of the militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and before that had spent several hours talking with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The man was Imad Mughniyeh, the world's most wanted terrorist not named Osama bin Laden. His true identity as the violent mastermind of Hezbollah would have come as a shock to his Damascus neighbors, who thought he was a chauffeur in the employ of the Iranian embassy. A number of them had even called on him, on several occasions, to help tote their bags to waiting taxis. He had happily complied.
On this night, he was in a hurry. He exited his apartment building and walked quickly to his SUV, crossing behind the tailgate to the driver's side door. He never made it. Instead, a remotely detonated explosive, containing hundreds of deadly, cube-shaped metal shards, ripped his body to shreds, lifting it into the air and depositing his burning torso 15 feet away on the apartment building's lawn.
Just like that, the most dangerous man you never heard of was dead, his whole career proof that one person really can reshape politics in the Middle East -- and far beyond it. "Both bin Laden and Mughniyeh were pathological killers," 30-year veteran CIA officer Milton Bearden told me. "But there was always a nagging amateurishness about bin Laden -- his wildly hyped background, his bogus claims.… Bin Laden cowered and hid. Mughniyeh spent his life giving us the finger."
UNTIL HIS DEATH, Hezbollah stubbornly refused to admit any knowledge of a commander named Imad Mughniyeh. Hezbollah's penchant for secrecy meant that, unlike bin Laden, who never tired of seeing himself on television, a nearly impenetrable fog settled on Mughniyeh while he was still alive. Only upon his assassination did Hezbollah hail "Hajj Radwan," as he was known, as one of its indispensable military commanders, the head of its Jihad Council, and the architect of its war strategy during the 2006 conflict with Israel.
Chanting pro-Hezbollah slogans and holding posters extolling his martyrdom, tens of thousands of Hezbollah partisans attended Mughniyeh's funeral in Beirut two days after his death. His 22-year-old son spoke to the crowd, pledging that his father's murder would be avenged. Mughniyeh's youngest son, 17, stood nearby alongside his sister, according to senior Hezbollah officials in attendance. They had only been informed that day that their father was something other than a midlevel Hezbollah official -- the "driver" -- who shuttled Iranian diplomats and Hezbollah leaders to and from Beirut and Damascus. After long denying his existence, Syrian officials quickly described the assassination as a "cowardly terrorist act." Iran called it "organized state terrorism by the Zionist regime," while Hezbollah leaders said Mughniyeh "died a martyr at the hands of the Israeli Zionists."
It was a violent end for a man who had devoted his life to violence on behalf of the Lebanese militant group and its patron, Iran. Although few had heard of him, he was responsible for virtually all the most notorious terrorist attacks of the pre-9/11 era: the October 1983 bombings of the U.S. Marine and French barracks in Beirut, the 1985 hijacking of a TWA airliner, and the kidnapping and murder of Western hostages in Lebanon in the 1980s. Mughniyeh also plotted the March 1992 attack on Israel's embassy in Argentina and the 1994 synagogue bombing in Buenos Aires. Until his death, however, no intelligence agency had ever successfully tracked him -- and only one American, former hostage Terry Anderson, admits to ever having met him.
For many CIA officers -- those who had long tried and failed to find him -- Mughniyeh's death represented an incredible victory over an elusive foe; in the shadowy world of intelligence, it was almost as big a score as the bin Laden raid a few years later. There's just one trick: The United States didn't kill Mughniyeh. And even now, five years later, it's not entirely clear who did.
I first heard of Mughniyeh in 1989, while reporting on the kidnapping of the CIA's Beirut station chief. Only the barest of facts about Mughniyeh were known at the time, and he remained, for me and other reporters, an obsessive journalistic pastime, a story we were sure would help us understand the region's murderously dysfunctional politics, if only we could decode it. "For years, people claimed Mughniyeh was behind anything that went 'boom,'" reporter Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert, says. "Just sit in a Beirut cafe and listen to what people say. Most of it is pure fantasy, but no one really knows for sure."
Blanford has stories of his own. "I hear that he rarely traveled with bodyguards," he told me, "and on some days he'd hop on his Vespa and run down the coast highway to train Hezbollah fighters in the south. Just imagine: One of the world's most wanted men on a scooter. In plain sight."
Only now, five years after his death, is a clearer narrative of his life coming into focus, one that finally separates the myth from the man. Indeed, though this account relies on dozens of conversations with Lebanese, Palestinian, Syrian, Israeli, and American observers and officials over a period of more than two decades, it's just in the last two years that those who knew Mughniyeh have begun to provide the details of his life, and only early this year, during a trip to the Middle East, was I told of his final hours.
What I have found is an untold tale about the murderous three-decade shadow war between Iran and the United States, one filled with not only a gruesome body count but also the complicated politics of a region where even Hezbollah's closest friends could be suspect -- and where a shadowy terrorist could wield enough power to shape global events.
IMAD MUGHNIYEH WAS BORN the eldest son of a poor farming family in Tayr Dibba, a Shiite village in southern Lebanon, in 1962. The Mughniyeh family was devout and traditional, but there wasn't anything unusual about them -- and certainly not anything that hinted at the path that the son would follow. Roughly a decade after Imad's birth, his father, Fayez, a fruit seller, moved his family to Beirut's southern suburbs. According to a number of people who knew him at that time, Imad attended a Shiite school and was an excellent student.
But when the Lebanese civil war broke out in 1975, Mughniyeh turned up at a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Beirut and asked for military training. Anis Naccache, a Shiite militant Lebanese nationalist and later a successful businessman, remembers him as a politically aware boy. The Palestinians provided Mughniyeh with rudimentary small-arms training. He was 13.
By 1979, he was enrolled in the American University of Beirut's engineering school and was increasingly politicized amid the tumult of Islamic revolution in nearby Iran and a deepening sectarian divide at home in Lebanon. Mughniyeh and his cousin Mustafa Badr al-Din joined the Palestinian resistance movement Fatah, which had been expelled from Jordan. The appearance of Fatah roiled the fragile Lebanese political environment, and the group had become a participant in the then four-year-old Lebanese civil war. A Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) veteran remembers that Mughniyeh and his cousin brought with them "about 100 fighters from the southern suburbs -- a kind of roving Shiite fight club."
Mughniyeh stood out. "He was a superb soldier," this veteran says. "He was courageous and a natural leader." Soon after, this same veteran notes, Shiite political operative Ali Hassan Deeb recommended him to the senior commander of Fatah's elite Force 17 commando unit. In late 1981, according to a senior Hezbollah official, Naccache introduced Mughniyeh to Iranian diplomat Ahmad Motevaselian in Beirut. The 1979 Iranian revolution had brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power, and the new Islamist government was eager to fund a militant vanguard that could export its revolution to Lebanon -- and strike a blow against Israel.
At Motevaselian's behest, Mughniyeh paid his first visit to Tehran and built ties that would prove crucial, particularly after the Israelis invaded Lebanon in June 1982 to destroy the PLO stronghold in Beirut, according to a Hezbollah official who was a lifelong friend. One month after the invasion, Tehran pressed Syria, which had sent troops into Lebanon, to approve the deployment of 1,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers to an abandoned Lebanese military base in the Bekaa Valley. Once they had secured their foothold in Lebanon, the Iranian vanguard provided military training to the most important of Lebanon's Shiite movements, including Mughniyeh's Shiite militia, now called Islamic Jihad.
The turning point in Mughniyeh's career came that same month, when Motevaselian, two Iranian diplomats, and an Iranian photographer were kidnapped by the right-wing Christian Lebanese Forces. The four would never be heard from again. In response, the Iranians loosed Islamic Jihad on the Americans, who had deployed Marines to Lebanon as part of an international peacekeeping force. Iran saw them as supporting Israel's Christian allies, and Mughniyeh's fighters traded sniper fire with U.S. forces, who occupied a base near southern Beirut's Shiite suburbs, throughout the end of 1982 -- stepping up their attacks in September after a Christian militia slaughtered at least 1,700 Palestinians in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps while Israeli soldiers looked on.
In April 1983, a van carrying 400 pounds of explosives destroyed the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, killing 63 people, including Robert Ames, the head of the CIA's Near East division. The attack was followed that October by the simultaneous truck bombings of the U.S. Marine and French paratroop barracks in southern Beirut, killing 241 American and 58 French soldiers.
The CIA investigation that followed showed that Islamic Jihad operatives planned the attack in a series of meetings inside the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, according to a CIA officer who served in the region at the time. Mughniyeh provided intelligence on the American deployment, this officer says, and recruited the bombers. "This was Mughniyeh's operation. He was the mastermind."
IT WAS NOW CLEAR that the constellation of organizations that flocked to Iran's Bekaa camp in 1982 had been transformed from a "fight club" into a kind of family-run Murder Inc., subcontracted by Iran to exact a price for Israel's invasion of Lebanon, America's intervention there, and U.S. support for Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War.
But the United States wasn't taking these punches sitting down. In March 1985, using Saudi assets, CIA-hired operatives detonated a car bomb outside the residence of Sheikh Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, a prominent Shiite cleric. The explosion killed 80 people, including Mughniyeh's brother Jihad, while only slightly injuring Fadlallah. It was a blunder: Fadlallah was an important Shiite figure, if hardly the "spiritual head" of Hezbollah, which had emerged by this time as the leader of Lebanon's Shiite political groups. But the attempted assassination escalated America's conflict with Hezbollah and Iran.
As the blood feud grew, Mughniyeh played a central role in the emerging shadow war between America and Iran. In June 1985, he and three others hijacked TWA Flight 847 and demanded the release of 700 Shiite prisoners held by Israel -- as well as his cousin Badr al-Din, who had been jailed in Kuwait since masterminding the 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing there, which killed six. The flight's odyssey was finally resolved when Israel agreed to release some 700 Shiite militants it had imprisoned, but only after the beaten body of murdered U.S. Navy serviceman Robert Stethem was thrown from the plane.
A season of hostage takings, then just beginning, accelerated: Presbyterian missionary Benjamin Weir, reporters Terry Anderson and Charles Glass, educator Thomas Sutherland, and dozens more were abducted from Beirut's streets and held in clandestine locations. Veteran Middle East reporter Robert Fisk, seeking Anderson's release, remembers meeting Mughniyeh in Tehran during this period. "Mughniyeh's handshake was like a vise grip, and he wouldn't let go," Fisk told a Western journalist. "His defining trait was that he was a very, very angry man. He also had this absolute confidence in his own view of the world."
From the U.S. standpoint, the most important hostages were William Buckley, the CIA's Beirut station chief, and Marine Col. Rich Higgins, taken at gunpoint while serving as part of the U.N. peacekeeping mission. The CIA quickly concluded that the two kidnappings had all the hallmarks of a Mughniyeh operation: meticulously planned, elegantly conducted -- and virtually unpredictable. Buckley's kidnapping sparked recriminations among CIA professionals, who proved powerless to find him.
Chip Beck, a U.S. State Department official, Navy officer, professional artist -- and Buckley's close friend -- was tasked with providing a sketch of Mughniyeh. "There wasn't much to work with," he told me recently, "since so few people had ever seen him."
The Higgins kidnapping, for which CIA professionals continue to hold Mughniyeh responsible, proved an even greater insult, particularly after U.S. officials received a videotape of his torture. The video, delivered to the Americans, reflected a graphic exercise in animalistic vengeance. "Unforgettable," as one former intelligence officer who saw it says. But the message was also ruthlessly clinical: Top this.
Higgins's tortured remains were found in a garbage bag near a southern Beirut mosque in December 1991. A few days later, Buckley's body was found dumped on Beirut's airport road.
IN JANUARY 1995, according to a senior Hezbollah official, Mughniyeh fled to Iran. He was being hounded by the United States and Israelis; his brother Jihad had been assassinated; and his best friend, cousin Badr al-Din, had spent seven years in a Kuwaiti prison, gaining release only after Saddam Hussein's military occupied Kuwait in August 1990.
Despite all this and a $5 million U.S. bounty on his head, Mughniyeh remained unscathed. This was primarily due to the care he took to protect his identity. He never talked of his operations, never agreed to an interview, never allowed his picture to be taken. He never spoke of his past, his family, or his life. According to a senior Islamist official who first met him in 1990 and got to know him as "Hajj Radwan," Mughniyeh rarely returned to his village to see his father and mother. On a number of occasions, according to published reports, because he was fluent in Arabic and Farsi, he served as an interpreter at meetings between Iranians and foreign leaders, but without telling Iran's visitors who he was.
From 1995 to 2006, Mughniyeh shuttled between Tehran, Damascus, and Beirut, eluding capture. There were some close scrapes. He boarded a flight to Saudi Arabia in late 1995, but the Saudis refused an American request to apprehend him, instead denying the airliner landing rights. U.S. intelligence officers concluded that the Saudis feared that cooperating in Mughniyeh's capture would lead to violent retribution. In 1996, he was spotted aboard a ship in Doha, Qatar, but the CIA moved too slowly to catch him. His legend grew with each escape: Stories spread that he met bin Laden, commanded Iran's operations in Basra, Iraq, in 2006 during the U.S. war in that country, had two plastic surgeries, and somehow owned a bakery in Beirut, where he could be seen, every morning, at a nearby coffee shop.
The most believable Mughniyeh story comes from the senior Islamist official who filled me in on Mughniyeh's past. Over a quiet dinner in Beirut in late 2011, the official told me that Mughniyeh had been married with two boys and a girl and been living in Lebanon, with a second wife in Damascus. "I first met Hajj Radwan in 1990," he told me, "and I met him quite by accident several times thereafter. I had no idea he was Imad Mughniyeh."
He said he spotted Mughniyeh in 1992 at a southern Beirut store that sold decorative bathroom tiles and plumbing fixtures. What my source didn't know at the time was that the shop was owned by Mughniyeh's brother Fuad, who served as a midlevel Hezbollah security official. The shop was across the street from a prominent mosque frequented by Hezbollah's senior leadership. One day, he was picking up supplies and found Mughniyeh standing behind the counter. Mughniyeh greeted my source with a grin and said he was "filling in" for Fuad -- "a close friend of mine," my source recalled, shaking his head in disbelief. "He waited on me."
But while my source didn't know then that the shop's owner was Mughniyeh's brother, the Israelis did. On Dec. 21, 1994, Ahmad Hallaq, a former Palestinian militiaman recruited by the Israelis, planted 120 pounds of explosives in a gray Volkswagen van outside Fuad's store, walked inside to confirm that his target, Fuad, was there, and then, after walking a safe distance away, triggered the bomb. The blast, Nicholas Blanford wrote, "ripped apart the front of the shop, instantly killing [Fuad] Mughniyah and three passersby."
Israel had good reason to target anyone close to Imad Mughniyeh: He had become indispensable to Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's chief, who was then shaping a strategy to pry Israel out of southern Lebanon, where Israel had set up a security zone. Later, after Israel's June 2000 withdrawal from the south, Nasrallah called on Mughniyeh to design a plan to deploy Hezbollah's Iranian-supplied, Russian-made Kornet and RPG-29 anti-tank rockets against Israeli armor. A senior Hezbollah official confirmed to me that Mughniyeh actually came up with Hezbollah's anti-tank training regimen, which paid off six years later. During the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces were badly bloodied, losing more than 40 armored vehicles to Hezbollah's anti-tank squads.
But while Mughniyeh was a hero for Hezbollah, his welcome was wearing thin in Syria. The Syrians always had a loveless marriage with Iran -- and Hezbollah. Syrian President Hafez al-Assad had only reluctantly agreed to the deployment of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps training units to the Bekaa Valley in 1982, and then insisted that the deployment be scaled back. His son and successor, Bashar, followed suit: He maintained strong ties to Tehran, while registering discomfort with Iran's anti-Baath strategy in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion of neighboring Iraq.
Relations soured further after the 2006 Lebanon war. Facing domestic economic pressures as a result of U.S.-imposed sanctions, the Syrian president pursued deeper ties with the West -- over Iranian objections. "I want to make this clear: Syria views itself as a Mediterranean country," Imad Moustapha, then Syria's ambassador to the United States, pointedly told me in 2007. "We look west -- not east. We look to America for leadership." The statement, shocking at the time, reflected Syria's desire to normalize relations with Washington -- a fact that discomfited Tehran.
Hezbollah had its own problems with Damascus. Movement leaders were bitter about Syria's February 2007 decision to open a communications channel with Israel through Turkey, and with Assad's decision to send the Sunni Islamist militants of Fatah al-Islam into the Lebanese city of Tripoli, where they sparked a bitter conflict in a Palestinian refugee camp in May 2007 that claimed hundreds of lives. Syria's move in Tripoli roiled Hezbollah leaders, who accused Assad of purposely attempting to destabilize the Lebanese government -- at their expense. "We know who's responsible for Tripoli, even if you and your journalist friends don't," a Hezbollah official told me at the time.
Ties between Damascus and Hezbollah reached a low point that September when Israeli jets bombed Syria's clandestine nuclear reactor under construction in the country's north and Assad's regime refused to respond militarily. In private, a senior Hezbollah leader with whom I spoke accused Syria of "flirting with the Zionists."
MUGHNIYEH'S ASSASSINATION in Damascus marked the final indignity for Hezbollah. In public, the "resistance axis" presented a united front, putting out nearly identical statements bemoaning the killing. In private, however, Hezbollah leaders blamed Syria for Mughniyeh's death, citing lax security and the incompetence of Gen. Assef Shawkat, Assad's brother-in-law, who was personally responsible for Mughniyeh's safety. In the bombing's immediate aftermath, according to a senior Lebanese Islamist, Hezbollah officials in Damascus adamantly refused all Syrian requests for access to the body, physically barring security officers from the room at the hospital where he had been deposited. Iran dispatched its foreign minister within hours of the killing to calm tensions, but without success. According to my senior Islamist source, no high-level Syrian official attended Mughniyeh's memorial service, and Hezbollah was enraged when Assad appointed Shawkat as the incident's chief investigator.
But if Hezbollah had seen dark omens coming from Damascus, Mughniyeh's death apparently caught Israel, as well as the United States, entirely by surprise. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's denial of responsibility was categorical: "Israel rejects the attempt by terrorist elements to ascribe to it any involvement whatsoever in this incident," he said in a statement. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack simply commented that Mughniyeh was "a coldblooded killer, a mass murderer, and a terrorist responsible for countless innocent lives lost," adding that "the world is a better place" without him.
Certainly, Hezbollah officials have their suspicions about who was responsible for Mughniyeh's assassination, which includes the usual suspects -- and the Syrians. One such official spoke candidly about it while seated beneath a portrait of Mughniyeh in his office in Beirut in the summer of 2010. "The Zionists killed Hajj Radwan," he said, and then shrugged. "Or your CIA." I disagreed: "We can't organize a two-car funeral." His eyes flashed, and he turned on me, raising his voice. "I can't tell you who killed Imad Mughniyeh, because I don't know," he snapped. "But I can tell you this: If we were in charge of his security, instead of the Syrians, he'd be alive today."
In the end, persistent rumors about Syria's involvement in Mughniyeh's death drove me to visit an acquaintance in Israel in early 2009 -- a man who'd spent three decades at or near the top of the Israeli political establishment. I began the discussion off topic, asking about Olmert's views on the Palestinians. Slowly, however, the discussion turned to Israel-Syria relations and the Turkish-hosted indirect talks. I was forced to be explicit: Did the Israelis condition warming relations with Syria on an end to its nuclear program -- and the death of Mughniyeh?
My friend eyed me from behind his desk as a slow smile crept across his face: "Not only can't I talk about it, but I certainly can't talk about it with you," he said. Then, after a long pause, he added: "You know, we had two pieces of baggage with Syria, and now we don't."
Almost exactly three years after Mughniyeh's assassination, in March 2011, the Syrian uprising began in Daraa. A few months later, Nasrallah dispatched the first Hezbollah fighters to help Assad stay in power. The decision sparked dissent among Hezbollah's senior leadership, who remained bitter about Mughniyeh's death. But Nasrallah imposed his will. "No one in Hezbollah mentions Syria; no one even talks about Syria," Timur Goksel, a veteran of the United Nations mission in Lebanon and Hezbollah expert, told me recently. "Only Hassan Nasrallah."
A year later, the rebels struck at the very heart of Assad's regime. On July 18, 2012, a massive explosion at the headquarters of Syria's national security council in Damascus killed the defense minister and three other top security and intelligence officials, including General Shawkat, once tasked with Imad Mughniyeh's safety. The Syrian government blamed "terrorists" for the attack. When Shawkat's funeral was held two days later, no Hezbollah official bothered to attend.
Foreign policy

Investigating Alleged Chemical Weapons Use in Syria: Technical and Political Challenges
Michael Eisenstadt/Washington Institute
April 26, 2013
The Obama administration should respond to the Assad regime's reported use of chemical weapons and its obstruction of UN investigators by ratcheting up support for the opposition.
In a letter issued on April 25, the White House informed Congress of U.S. intelligence assessments that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons (CW) on "a small scale," specifically the nerve agent sarin. It further stated that the government "must build on" these assessments in order to establish "credible and corroborated facts."
The United States is now in sync with several key allies (Britain, France, and Israel) whose intelligence services recently concluded that the regime has used CW. As made clear in yesterday's letter, however, the administration requires stronger evidence before it concludes that its redline on CW use has been crossed -- a development that President Obama previously said would be a "game changer" for U.S. policy toward Syria. For this reason, Washington is demanding that the UN team assembled to investigate these allegations be permitted to enter Syria.
THE SECRETARY-GENERAL'S MECHANISM
Since the early 1980s, the UN has conducted investigations of alleged CW use by Laos, Kampuchea, and the Soviets in Afghanistan in the late 1970s and early 1980s, by Iraq during its war with Iran in the 1980s, and by Mozambique insurgents and the Armenian government in the early 1990s. Initially, it relied on ad hoc arrangements and procedures to conduct such inquiries, but in 1990 -- pursuant to General Assembly Resolution A/RES/45/57 -- it established the Secretary-General's Mechanism for Investigation of Alleged Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (SGM).
Today, the SGM is used to investigate allegations involving states that have not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention, whose implementing body (the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) has its own investigative capability that can be used to assist the SGM if needed. When conducting a probe, the SGM can draw on over 300 experts in chemical and biological warfare and more than forty analytical laboratories from around the world, all operating in accordance with established procedures grounded in three decades of experience. The SGM can also investigate alleged cases of biological warfare, as the Biological Weapons Convention lacks an investigative arm.
In March, after claiming that opposition forces had used CW, Damascus asked the UN to investigate. In response, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon deployed the SGM for the first time since 1992, rapidly mobilizing a team of experts to look into the claim. Initially, Damascus insisted that the investigation be limited to alleged opposition use, but Britain and France rejected the demand, arguing that the team should look into all suspected CW incidents. The Assad regime then refused the team entry to Syria; the investigators are now in Cyprus, awaiting further guidance.
POTENTIAL OBSTACLES
An SGM investigation may consist of several elements:
Interviews with victims, witnesses, and government officials to determine what happened.
Medical examinations and epidemiological surveys of victims (whether onsite or in neighboring countries) to identify symptoms associated with CW. This needs to be done quickly, as memories fade and wounds heal.
Forensic analysis of soil, plants, wildlife, clothing, or weapon fragments to identify agent residue or decomposition products. Such analysis must be conducted quickly and on location, before the elements take their toll (though some agents and many decomposition products have proven surprisingly persistent). Another key to the investigation's credibility is establishing an unambiguous chain of custody for samples taken.
Although the challenges of proper CW investigations are not trivial, the methods and technical means now in use have repeatedly proven their efficacy. According to Jez Littlewood of Carleton University, in nine of twelve previous UN investigations, authorities were able to firmly conclude that CW was used (Iraq) or that evidence of use was lacking (Mozambique and Armenia). In the other cases (Laos/Kampuchea and Afghanistan), denial of access and the passage of time precluded definitive conclusions (though in the former case, it was later found that the putative CW agent -- the so-called "yellow rain" -- was in fact bee feces).
Indeed, politics are often the main barrier to both effective investigations and international action in the face of conclusive findings. During the Iran-Iraq War, for example, UN investigators initially avoided naming and shaming Baghdad for using CW. And after they finally did so in 1986, the Security Council was unwilling to censure Iraq by name, instead implicating both sides by settling for a blanket condemnation of continued CW use in the war.
Independent investigators (e.g., NGOs and journalists) have sometimes tried to fill the gap when the UN was precluded from acting -- for instance, when Baghdad and Turkey rebuffed the UN's August 1988 effort to investigate Iraq's use of CW against its Kurdish population. While such efforts have sometimes produced useful results, they lack the capabilities and credibility of an SGM investigation.
IMPLICATIONS FOR SYRIA
The fact that U.S. intelligence now assesses with some confidence that the regime has used CW is a significant development, but it is not yet a turning point in U.S. policy toward Syria. Here, history casts a long shadow: past claims of CW use that proved wrong (e.g., "yellow rain"), coupled with the post-September 11 intelligence failures regarding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, have led the Obama administration to insist on a high standard of proof for Syria. And as long as Damascus refuses to let the UN investigate all allegations, and as long as Russia provides the regime with political cover at the Security Council, it may be impossible for Washington to meet that standard or act within the UN framework if sufficient proof comes to light.
Yet this should not stop the United States and its allies from continuing to investigate Syrian CW on their own and publicizing their findings -- if only because such information would likely create a more conducive environment at home and abroad for whatever response Washington eventually chooses. Likewise, if Damascus continues to prevent the UN team from entering the country or impedes a full investigation, the secretary-general should authorize the team to seek evidence elsewhere (e.g., among victims who are now in neighboring states), as authorized by General Assembly Report A/44/561, which sets guidelines for SGM investigations. Washington should also encourage him to issue a report evaluating all of the information currently in the UN's hands, including that provided by member states. This would further increase the pressure on Damascus, ensuring that the Assad regime pays a price for its obstructionism.
Finally, not responding until definitive proof of CW use is in hand will make the regime more likely to employ such weapons on a wider scale. Accordingly, Washington should state that it will progressively expand its support for the Syrian people in response to credible reports of regime CW use and obstruction of the UN investigation -- beginning with the provision of arms to the opposition and the use of Patriot batteries in Turkey to prevent further airstrikes and, if possible, missile attacks on civilian and rebel targets. The administration should also stand ready to support allied efforts to establish humanitarian safe havens or no-fly zones over Syria. Hopefully, such a measured approach would not only deter the regime from future CW use, but also alter the psychological environment in Syria by signaling heightened U.S. support for the opposition. And by restoring American credibility, it would strengthen Washington's hand in the slow-motion crises with Iran and North Korea.
**Michael Eisenstadt directs the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute.