Bible Quotation for today/The Wisdom from Above
James 03/13-17: "Are there any of you who are wise and understanding? You are to prove it by your good life, by your good deeds performed with humility and wisdom. But if in your heart you are jealous, bitter, and selfish, don't sin against the truth by boasting of your wisdom.  Such wisdom does not come down from heaven; it belongs to the world, it is unspiritual and demonic.  Where there is jealousy and selfishness, there is also disorder and every kind of evil.  But the wisdom from above is pure first of all; it is also peaceful, gentle, and friendly; it is full of compassion and produces a harvest of good deeds; it is free from prejudice and hypocrisy. 18 And goodness is the harvest that is produced from the seeds the peacemakers plant in peace".
 

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources

Lebanon’s minorities have Syria in mind/By Michael Young/The Daily Star/April 11/13

Salam must save Lebanon from Syria/By: Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat/April 11/13

Tired of the Brotherhood, Egyptians Want the Military Back But Only Temporarily/Eric Trager/Washington Institute/April 11/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 11/13

Salam: I Will Step down if Parliament's Term is Extended
Bomb found in Beirut suburb
Al-Nusra Front Sends Bomb Message to Hizbullah
Bahrain first Arab state to blacklist Hezbollah
Report: 12 Hezbollah members killed in Damascus ambush
Bahrain Labels Hezbollah Terror Group
Future slams Hezbollah activity in Syria
We can’t designate Hezbollah a terror group, Cypriot minister says
Salam Holds onto National Interest Cabinet at End of Consultations with MPs
Hollande Meets al-Rahi, Says France Keen on Lebanon Stability
Maronite Leader Expresses Concern About Christians in Syria
Relatives of Lebanese hostages 'hunt down' Syrians
Parliament Agrees to Suspend Deadline for Elections Nominations amid National Struggle Front Boycott
More than 600 Lebanese Ink Petition Rejecting Orthodox Proposal
Suleiman Calls for Turkish Pressures to Release Aazaz Abductees
Zasypkin Hails Efforts for Consensus by Lebanese Officials
Reports: Communication Devices Destined for Syria Rebels Seized at Beirut Port
March 14 Hopes Parties Would Place National Interests above Factional Ones in Forming New Govt
Foreign Ministry Sends Letter to Syrian Embassy after Latest Raids
Families of Abducted Pilgrims Prevent Syrians from Working for Fourth-Day
Conflicting Reports on Release of Taxi Driver by Abductors
Connelly Meets Suleiman, Hopes New Govt. Will Strengthen Lebanon's Stability
Syria crisis: Al-Nusra pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda
US closer to widening Syrian rebel aid
Iraq's al-Qaida branch and Syrian militant group announce merger
UN, Syria keep wrangling about extended chemical weapons probe
Al-Nusra Commits to al-Qaida, Deny Iraq Branch 'Merger'

Al-Nusra Front Sends Bomb Message to Hizbullah
Naharnet /A bomb was found overnight in Hay al-Sellom area in Beirut's southern suburbs allegedly signed by Syria's al-Nusra Front rebel group and directed against Hizbullah, media reports said on Wednesday.
Hizbullah members cordoned off the area and prevented security forces and a military expert from reaching the scene. Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said that Hizbullah's military expert defused the bomb and moved it to an unknown place. State-run National News Agency reported that the bomb is made of a glass bottle connected to an electric wire. Slogans against Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizbullah were written on it. “May Bashar Fall. Death to Hizbullah. Al-Nusra Front.” Lebanese parties are sharply divided over the crisis in Syria as the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance continuously expresses its support to Assad, while the March 14 camp backs the popular revolt. The international community and analysts have expressed fears that the conflict in Syria may spill over into Lebanon. On Tuesday, al-Qaida in Iraq said al-Nusra Front, the jihadist group battling Assad's regime, was part of its network and fighting for an Islamic state in Syria. "It is time to declare to the Levant and to the world that the al-Nusra Front is simply a branch of the Islamic State of Iraq," leader of al-Qaida's front group in Iraq Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi said in the audio message. The groups will now be combined and called the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Baghdadi said the group was willing to ally with other groups "on the condition that the country and its citizens be governed according to the rules dictated by Allah.” Al-Nusra Front first gained notoriety for its suicide bombings in Syria but has evolved into a formidable fighting force leading attacks on battlefronts throughout the country. Its suspected affiliation to al-Qaida's front group in Iraq led to it being labeled a "terrorist" organization by Washington in December. Syria's conflict, now in its third year, is believed to have killed more than 70,000 people since it erupted in March 2011.
 

Maronite Leader Expresses Concern About Christians in Syria
By MidEast Christian News/April 10, 2013|/Maronite Patriarch Mar Beshara Boutros el-Rai expressed concern on the situation of Christians in Syria and the increasing number of displaced Syrians living in Lebanon.
During his meeting with French President Francois Hollande at the Elysee Palace in Paris Tuesday, Patriarch Rahi said a large number of Orthodox Christians- about 60 percent of those displaced- had left Syria, and that the solution there must be political. Patriarch Rahi stressed that President Bashar el-Assad is not worse than those who are fighting in Syria. "[France] is committed to stability of Lebanon and political harmony among all components of the Lebanese community in order to preserve civil peace and national unity," President Hollande said in a statement. "France remains very interested in the situation of Christians in the Middle, those who constitute a key component of the identity of the country and the region," he added, while stressing the "historical ties with the Maronite Patriarchate and Maronite people of Lebanon."Sources said Hollande's meeting with Patriarch Rahi began with an extended session followed by a closed meeting between the president and the patriarch, London's Al-Hayat newspaper reported.The sources also said that when Hollande asked about Hezbollah, the patriarch replied that he has talks with the party that represent the Shiite community in Lebanon and has relationships with all communities in Lebanon.

Hollande Meets al-Rahi, Says France Keen on Lebanon Stability
Naharnet /French President Francois Hollande on Tuesday held talks with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Paris, stressing his country's keenness on Lebanon's stability and calling on the international community to assist Lebanon in confronting the Syrian refugee crisis. “The meeting was characterized with warmheartedness and cordiality and the two sides tackled the Lebanese-French ties and the impact of the situations in the region on Lebanon,” said a statement issued by the Elysee Palace. “The French president underlined his country's keenness on Lebanon's stability, the safety of its citizens and political understanding among all the components of the Lebanese society … He also emphasized France's permanent solidarity with Lebanon and its commitment to its role as a peace factor,” the statement added.
Hollande hailed al-Rahi's role as a moral authority and President Michel Suleiman's efforts, recalling the “historic ties between France and Lebanon's Maronites and their patriarchate.”
He also hoped Lebanon will be able to “confront the various challenges and cope with the Syrian refugee influx.”The French leader noted that “achieving democracy for people and the state of law are the best guarantees for religious diversity and Christian presence in the Middle East and Near East.”He stressed that Paris will remain "very concerned with the situation of the Levant's Christians who represent an important factor in the identity of the countries they live in."For his part, al-Rahi thanked France for its "permanent support for Lebanon," recalling the "historic and close relations between the two countries and France's support for Lebanon's just causes and role at the level of the international community."He hoped Paris will continue its "support for peace in the region and human rights," underlining "the importance of the Lebanese example in Muslim-Christian ties, coexistence and the culture of dialogue, in the era of sectarian conflicts.”Al-Rahi noted that "the role of Christians is to preserve the identity of the countries they have been inhabiting since 2,000 years.”
Later on Tuesday, al-Rahi met with former deputy premier Issam Fares and put him in the picture of his talks with Hollande and Fabius. According to Lebanon's National News Agency, al-Rahi reiterated in his meetings with the French officials “the need to put an end to the destructive war machine in Syria and to reach a solution through peaceful means.”The patriarch highlighted “the dangerous security and economic repercussions of the Syrian refugee crisis on Lebanon,” urging France and the international community to “shoulder the responsibility of these refugees and not to leave Lebanon to confront the burden of the problem alone.”Al-Rahi noted that “the Baabda Declaration remains the best framework for reaching solutions to the political crisis in Lebanon.”

Parliament Agrees to Suspend Deadline for Elections Nominations amid National Struggle Front Boycott
Naharnet/Parliament agreed on Wednesday to suspend the deadline for submitting nominations for the parliamentary elections. It agreed to suspend the deadline to May 19. The session, headed by Speaker Nabih Berri, was attended by all political blocs, except the National Struggle Front of MP Walid Jumblat. Independent MPs Butros Harb and Nicolas Fattoush voiced their objection to the parliament's decision.
The draft law calls for setting the deadline for submitting nominations to three weeks before the elections date, reported MTV. It also allows candidates who seek to withdraw their nominations to do so two weeks before the polls, said LBCI television. Prior to the session, Berri held a series of phone calls and meetings at his office to set the stage for consensus on the required amendments of articles in the 1960 electoral law.
Jumblat had informed Berri in a meeting of his rejection to suspend the deadlines set by the 1960 law. An initial agreement to suspend the deadlines to May 19 was reached on Tuesday at a meeting held by parliament's bureau and attended by Caretaker Premier Najib Miqati, lawmakers from the Lebanese Forces and the Phalange, and Marada movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh. But the implementation of the deal hinges on the session of the parliament which is divided into two camps. Al-Mustaqbal bloc, the National Struggle Front and March 14 independent MPs say the deadline for the process of submitting candidacies should be extended under the 1960 law until the rival sides reach an agreement on a new law. President Michel Suleiman is also a staunch supporter of the postponement of the deadline. His sources told An Nahar newspaper that a suspension was not possible given that the 1960 law sets 12 to 14 deadlines. Article 49 that sets the deadline for the announcement of candidacies should be amended through the extension of this deadline, they said.
But the Lebanese Forces, the Phalange, Amal, Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement call for the suspension of the deadlines. The head of parliament's justice committee, MP Robert Ghanem, warned against the suspension, saying it makes the 1960 law obsolete. But such a move would not affect the submission of candidacies that have been made so far, he told An Nahar newspaper. “So the new proposal should have a retroactive effect to annul these nominations.” Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel has said that 50 people have so far announced their candidacies based on the 1960 law. Parliamentary sources also warned against the suspension of the deadlines, saying such a move would make the 1960 law obsolete and the one before it known as the 2000 Ghazi Kanaan law would become valid.
But Harb said he drafted a proposal along with several lawmakers to suspend the deadlines while keeping the 1960 law valid for the parliamentary elections if the rival parties failed to agree on a new law.

March 14 Hopes Parties Would Place National Interests above Factional Ones in Forming New Govt.
Naharnet/The March 14 General Secretariat hoped on Wednesday that Premier-designate Tammam Salam would succeed in a forming a government of “national reconciliation.”
It demanded that all parties “cooperate honestly with him and refrain from setting obstacles that only serve factional interests at the expense of national ones.”
The general secretariat made its remarks after its weekly meeting. “The critical situation Lebanon is passing through requires us all to exert all efforts to form a cabinet that will cater to the people's concerns and lead them to safety,” it continued. The Mach 14 forces then condemned Hizbullah's involvement in the fighting in Syria, saying that it is serving Iranian interests at the expense of the Syrian people.
“The party's practices jeopardize the entire Shiite sect and expose Lebanon's peace to developments that may lead the country towards the violence” in Syria, it warned.
It therefore renewed its demand for controlling the Lebanese-Syrian border through the deployment of the army, with reinforcements from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and in accordance to U.N. Security Council resolution 1701. “We demand that Hizbullah completely halt its involvement in the Syrian violence for the sake of the Syrian people and Lebanese unity,” it remarked.
On the phenomenon of kidnapping in Lebanon, the March 14 General Secretariat demanded that the security forces immediately tackle this issue, most notably in the Bekaa region. The kidnappers failed in igniting strife between the residents of the town of Arsal and the Lebanese army, it noted.

Bahrain first Arab state to blacklist Hezbollah'
By JPOST.COM STAFF 04/10/2013/Hezbollah's alleged support, training of radical shi'ite groups against Bahrain is basis for decision, MP tells Al Arabiya. Bahrain on Tuesday became the first Arab state to blacklist Hezbollah as a terrorist group, Al Arabiya reported. According to the report the decision was based mainly on the Lebanese Shi'ite organization's alleged support and training of radical shi'ite groups against Bahrain.
The measure is to protect Bahrain’s security and stability from Hezbollah’s threats,” Bahraini MP Adil al-Asoumi told Al Arabiya.He stated that Hezbollah is not only a threat to Bahrain, but to the rest of the Gulf region, and called on “our Gulf brethren to confront the terrorist organization to secure Gulf security.”He reportedly added that there is evidence that Hezbollah is instigating violence against the Bahraini government. Also Tuesday, twelve Hezbollah members were killed and more than 20 others were wounded in an ambush near Damascus, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources close to the organization. The Hezbollah armed brigade has reportedly been deployed in Syria to fight with forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad.The wounded were evacuated to a hospital in south Beirut, according to the report

Report: 12 Hezbollah members killed in Damascus ambush

By JPOST.COM STAFF 04/09/2013 22:41 Twelve Hezbollah members were killed and more than 20 others were wounded in an ambush near Damascus, Al Arabiya reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to the organization. The Hezbollah armed brigade has reportedly been deployed in Syria to fight with forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad. The wounded were evacuated to a hospital in south Beirut, according to the report.

Connelly Meets Suleiman, Hopes New Govt. Will Strengthen Lebanon's Stability
Naharnet /U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly welcomed on Wednesday President Michel Suleiman's nomination of Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam as a “positive first step” in efforts to form a new government. She reiterated after holding talks with the president “the United States’ position that the Lebanese people deserve a government that reflects their aspirations and that strengthens Lebanon’s stability, sovereignty, and independence while fulfilling its international commitments.” The government-formation process “is, and must be, a Lebanese process,” she stressed. The president and ambassador discussed bilateral relations as well as the political and security situation in Lebanon and regional events. Connelly further underscored that Lebanon’s democratic process is an immensely valuable achievement that serves as an example to the region, especially during this period of democratic change in the Middle East.She conveyed the United States’ appreciation for the extraordinary efforts exerted by Suleiman and other responsible leaders to adhere to Lebanon’s legal and constitutional framework to hold timely parliamentary elections.The ambassador renewed the commitment of the United States to a stable, sovereign, and independent Lebanon.

Suleiman Calls for Turkish Pressures to Release Aazaz Abductees
Naharnet /President Michel Suleiman called on Turkey to exert more pressure to release the abducted Lebanese in the Syrian town of Aazaa. Suleiman stressed during his meeting on Wednesday with the Turkish Transportation Minister Binali Yildirim at the Presidential Palace in Baabda that such pressure helps enhance relations between Lebanon and Turkey. The nine men were kidnapped by Syrian rebels in the province of Aleppo as they returned home from a pilgrimage in Iran last May. Moreover, the president extended gratitude to Turkey for taking part in the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon deployed in the south. On his part, Yildirim hailed the bilateral relations between the two countries mainly at the economic level. The minister also vowed to convey the Lebanese stance to Turkish officials voicing hopes for a continued cooperation between the two states.
Yildirim arrived in Beirut on Wednesday accompanied by a Turkish delegation for talks with Lebanese officials.

Salam: I Will Step down if Parliament's Term is Extended
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam stated on Wednesday that he might resign if the parliament's term was extended. Tammam's decision comes shortly after the parliament referred a draft law to President Michel Suleiman that calls for suspending the deadline for submitting nominations for the parliamentary elections. "I might step down as the PM-designate if the parliament's term was extended,” Salam told Future TV.
He pointed out: “My stand is in harmony with that of the majority of lawmakers and with Suleiman's stance”. Meanwhile, Suleiman announced later on Wednesday that he will sign the draft law issued by the parliament.
"I will sign the referred suggestion in order to allow time for consensus over a new electoral law,” he tweeted. On the formation of a new cabinet, Salam's sources stressed to LBCI television on the need for the new government to be homogeneous among its members. The establishment of a “heavily political” government will only mean that it will be burdened by the demands of various political powers that will consequently prevent it from properly carrying out its duties, they explained. The premier-designate revealed to Future TV that he will hold talks with the president on Thursday to discuss the cabinet's formation. The sources quoted Salam as saying: “I will step down from my post after the elections are held.” “Our mission will be over if the elections are not held,” he added. “I was appointed for the central goal to stage the parliamentary elections,” he remarked. “If they want to extend parliament's term, then they should come up with a government to oversee such a step,” he said. Salam concluded on Wednesday two-day consultations with parliamentary blocs over the formation of a new government.
He hoped after the talks that the consensus over his nomination last week will carry on in the process to form a new cabinet.

8 long years: the families of the Lebanese detainees in Syria are tired of shouting
8 years ago, it was the beginning of the sit-in of the families of the Lebanese detainees in Syria in Gebran Khalil Gebran garden in Beirut downtown, calling the Lebanese state and the international community to a fair and equitable solution to their ordeal ; unfortunately, to date, their struggle has remained vain.On this eighth commemoration, SOLIDE (Support of Lebanese in Detention and Exile) and CLDH (Lebanese Center for Human Rights) invite you to join tomorrow 11 April 2013 the families at the tent in Gebran garden in Beirut downtown between 11.00 am and 3.00 pm to express your solidarity with the relatives of the detainees.
SOLIDE CLDH
Ghazi AAD Wadih AL-ASMAR
 

Bomb found in Beirut suburb
April 10, 2013/ The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Hezbollah cordoned off Hay al-Sellom neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburb after a bomb was discovered overnight, a security source said Wednesday.
The source, speaking to The Daily Star on condition of anonymity, said the bomb was found around midnight near the Barrad al-Hajj area of Hay al-Sellom.He said members from Hezbollah sealed off the area, preventing security forces and bomb disposal experts from approaching the scene.The bomb, signed by the radical Islamist group the Nusra Front, carried anti-Hezbollah and anti-Syrian President Bashar Assad inscriptions, according to the source.The explosives were loaded into a 30-cm glass bottle and connected to electrical wiring, the source said, adding that the device was ready to use. The source said a Hezbollah security expert dealt with the bomb.Nusra Front is a Syrian opposition brigade and has been labeled a terrorist group by the United States. Earlier this year, a small bomb exploded under a car in Hay al-Selloum, slightly wounding two people.

Future slams Hezbollah activity in Syria
April 10, 2013/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Future Movement Tuesday denounced Hezbollah’s participation in the ongoing unrest in Syria and warned that the party’s involvement in the neighboring country’s crisis would put Lebanon in danger.
“We condemn the increase in the number of Lebanese dead in Syria as a result of the continuing involvement of Hezbollah in the fighting,” the bloc said in a statement Tuesday.
Following their weekly meeting at former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s residence in Beirut, the Future Movement said Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian crisis would further tarnish its image in the country and the region.
“Such involvement associates Lebanon with a number of dangers and further hurts the image of Hezbollah, which has distanced itself from its primary [purpose, which is] leading a resistance against the Israeli enemy,” MP Atef Majdalani said in a statement.
Earlier this week, a source close to Hezbollah confirmed that two members of the party had been killed while fighting alongside Syrian government forces in Al-Qusair area near the border with Lebanon.
“Two members of Hezbollah who went to Syria to fight against armed groups in the Al-Qusair sector have been killed,” the source said.
Three others were also killed in February in the same area. Hezbollah said that its members killed in Syria were fighting in self-defense in a Shiite town.
The Future Movement argued that Hezbollah was no longer using its arms in line with the country’s “national interest,” but for regional goals.
“[Hezbollah] has endorsed a new role for its arms in line with regional plans and away from the Lebanese national interest,” the statement said.
The bloc called on Syrian rebels to immediately secure the release of nine Lebanese hostages, who were kidnapped in Syria last May, to avoid causing harm to the Syrian people’s “rightful demands.”
Eleven men were abducted in Syria on their way back from a religious pilgrimage to Iran, and negotiations with the opposition members holding them have only secured the release of two.
“The Lebanese kidnapped in Syria should be freed today, not tomorrow,” the bloc said, adding that no similar kidnappings should target Syrians living in Lebanon.
The bloc also denounced the Syrian regime’s shelling of Lebanese border towns in the north and in the Bekaa Valley regions. “These attacks are a violation of Lebanese sovereignty and work should be done to put an end to this.” But Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon denied allegations that the Syrian army was attacking Lebanese territory, and said Syria was actually being attacked by insurgents from Lebanon.
“The attacks are coming from Lebanon and not from Syria. They are conducted daily by gunmen from the Lebanese territories,” Ali Abdel-Karim Ali said Tuesday when asked about repeated Syrian attacks against Lebanese territory. “Even the Lebanese media is not hiding such attacks against Syria and some are being investigated by the Lebanese judiciary,” Ali said after a meeting with former Prime Minister Salim al-Hoss.
Ali also called on the Lebanese authorities to take “more firm measures to stop the infiltration of fighters coming from Lebanon into Syria.”
“There is cooperation from Lebanon sometimes, and at times security is getting loose in some places. Addressing these violations should be a high priority for both Lebanon and Syria.”
The Syrian envoy reiterated that Damascus was committed to the “brotherly” relations with its neighbor.

Lebanon’s minorities have Syria in mind
April 11, 2013 /By Michael Young The Daily Star
Lebanon’s latest political psychodrama is about whether the deadline for candidacies to the forthcoming parliamentary elections should be extended or suspended. This has produced some strange bedfellows, namely the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb on the Christian side, and Hezbollah and Amal on the Muslim side.
At the heart of the problem is the 1960 election law, which the main Christian parties reject out of hand. If elections are held on the basis of the law, these parties have vowed not to participate. For them, as for Hezbollah and Amal, extending the deadline for candidacies under the 1960 law means legitimizing that law. So they prefer the proposal of the Parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, to suspend candidacies altogether, challenging the 1960 law and possibly precipitating a political vacuum if no agreement on an alternative is reached.
The behavior of the Lebanese Forces is, perhaps, most difficult to explain. The party has backed the Orthodox proposal, but in the face of withering criticism, Lebanese Forces officials sought to explain their position. In fact, they only confused matters more.
The gist of their argument went something like this. Under the 1960 law, the Lebanese Forces are at a disadvantage. The party cannot afford to win the same relatively small number of seats that it did in 2009, as this would lead to permanent marginalization. Most Christians support the Orthodox proposal. So, Samir Geagea had to endorse it, especially as Michel Aoun has done so. But in reality, Geagea is open to a law that would be agreed with March 14 and that satisfies his political objectives. “Geagea is playing chess while the others are playing checkers,” a party official explained to me.
Soon thereafter, there were reports that if the Orthodox proposal came up for a vote in Parliament, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb would not vote in favor. How true this was is anyone’s guess, but it begged the question: If backing the Orthodox proposal was merely a tactical ploy by Geagea, then why would he undermine it by opposing the proposal when his approval mattered the most?
In fact, what we saw was something rather different. When Berri called for a parliamentary session to take up the matter of an election law, he did two things. First, he asked March 14 to come up with an election proposal of its own to place against the Orthodox proposal; and he called for the full suspension of candidacies, rather than a delay in the deadline. To the first request, Berri received no response, as March 14 remains divided over a preferred proposal, and the Future Movement, wanting to avert a greater rift with Geagea, has formulated no election project of its own.
In turn, Berri’s suggestion that candidacies be suspended under the 1960 law was welcomed by all the major Christian parties. Perhaps it was another chess move by the Lebanese Forces, but the message was unmistakable: The party would side with Hezbollah and Berri to torpedo the 1960 law, regardless of whether this might lead to a constitutional vacuum, and regardless of whether it helps ensure that March 14 will not win a majority in the next Parliament.
This dilutes the protests of the Lebanese Forces officials who have always insisted that their primary aim is to strengthen March 14. As for the Future Movement, whose interests are harmed by Christian approval of the Orthodox proposal, it has advanced a compromise: Candidacies would be suspended until May 19, allowing time for talks to reach agreement over a consensual election law. This was approved on Wednesday.
But for one senior politician, the tacit alliance between the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb, Berri and Hezbollah may suggest something more than electoral maneuvering. Instead of thinking about March 14, Geagea and his deputy George Adwan are actually concerned about the aftermath of the conflict in Syria.
Because Christians fear Sunni affirmation following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, quite possibly in an Islamist guise, Geagea, the Kataeb, and the Aounists are laying the basis of an alliance of minorities with the Shiite community. Their accord over the Orthodox proposal proves this, as does the Lebanese Forces’ and the Kataeb’s refusal to be mere accessories of the Future Movement, which the 1960 law guarantees.
Is this true? The long absence of Saad Hariri has created a void in the Sunni community, the consequences of which, Christians worry, will be greater Sunni radicalization. In response, the Christian parties had an opportunistic interest in making it appear to their co-religionists that they would defend them against a Sunni resurgence. But they also saw an advantage in preparing for the endgame in Syria, and the Orthodox proposal, whereby each minority can shape its own destiny free from other communities, allegedly was the way to do so.
Certainly, Geagea has lost the esteem he enjoyed among many Sunnis, preferring to rally Christian support through actions addressing communal anxieties. In tactical terms this has increased his electoral leverage over Hariri. However, the leverage means nothing if there are no elections because the Christian strategy has led to a void; and it means nothing if the Lebanese Forces decide, henceforth, to position themselves as the defenders of Christians against a Sunni renewal.
An alliance of minorities may be attractive to many Christians, but what it means is that the community could find itself once again standing against the overwhelming majority in the Arab world. This is what happened during the war years, and the result was a collapse in Christian fortunes and numbers. To adopt such a position when Sunnis may be about to triumph in Syria is not only stupid, it is suicidal. Geagea grasped this reality not so long ago, which makes his contortions on the election law all the more incomprehensible.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Relatives of Lebanese hostages 'hunt down' Syrians
Last Updated: Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Beirut, Hezbollah Beirut: A big black X has been painted on the doors of dozens of Syrian-run shops in Beirut's southern suburb, a bastion of Shiite Damascus regime ally Hezbollah.
The marks have an ominous message: "Do not open for business." They have been daubed on the doors by relatives of nine Lebanese Shiites kidnapped in neighbouring Syria a year ago and not heard from in four months.
"They will stay shut until our relatives are free," says one family member of the businesses in Hay el-Sellom market.
Not far away, other people set up checkpoints outside Beirut's Tiro industrial area to stop Syrian workers from getting to their jobs. A dozen unarmed men and women stopped cars at an intersection in the neighbourhood and verify the identities of their passengers. They turned back minibuses driven by Syrians, and did not allow Syrian passengers from continuing onwards. Explaining that their gesture was a bid to draw attention to the plight of their relatives, they also ejected a group of Lebanese schoolchildren from a bus driven by a Syrian, ordering him to turn back.
"Tell all the passengers to get off, and turn back," they told the driver. A group of soldiers stood passively nearby, in an area that is normally abuzz with Syrians.
Having heard nothing of their loved ones' fate for so long, the relatives say their action is born from despair.
"We know what we're doing isn't great, but we are so desperate," said Inaya Zogheib, the daughter of one of the hostages.
Mona Termos, whose husband Ali is another of the hostages, said "we have nothing personal against the Syrians; they have lived among us for 30 years."
For decades Syria dominated its smaller neighbour, and thousands of Syrians flocked to more prosperous Lebanon to find jobs that paid better than those at home, a place ravaged for the past two years by a brutal civil war.
But Termos said that "while our relatives are being held in Syria, we won't allow them to have their livelihoods... My husband managed a supermarket, and now my two daughters have left university to keep the family afloat."
"You should organise sit-ins calling for our relatives to be freed. Otherwise, you won't have the right to work in this country anymore!" Termos cried out to a Syrian bus driver.
"I support your cause; I swear to you," he replied helplessly.
The hostages are part of a group of Shiite pilgrims who were kidnapped in May in northern Syria's Aleppo province as they returned from a pilgrimage in Iran. The women in the group and two men were released.
The kidnapping was claimed by a man who identified himself as Abu Ibrahim and said he is a member of the rebel Free Syrian Army, but the FSA denies any involvement.
There have been several failed rounds of negotiations to free the pilgrims.
The kidnappers have not spelled out any demands, though they have claimed that the hostages were members of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese Shiite party.
Most of Syria's rebels -- like the population -- are Sunnis. Close Damascus ally Hezbollah has frequently spelled out its unwavering support for President Bashar al-Assad, who belongs to the Alawite sect, on offshoot of Shiite Islam. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said last year that the kidnapping would not affect the group's position on Syria's conflict.
For now, Syrian workers in Lebanon are paying for the families' rage. Mohammed, who works for the Pepsi company, was forced to turn back while on the way to work on Wednesday.
"They've been stopping us from getting to work for 10 days. They don't use any violence... but what can we do to help them," asked Mohammed, who comes from the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor.
Since the Syrian conflict began, more than 400,000 people have sought refuge in Lebanon, putting pressure on the small country's resources and creating tensions with local residents in parts of the country.
In Hay al-Sellom, a group of young Syrian men gathered at the entrances to the closed shops. "I am losing $250 a day," said Hussein, 26, who runs three toy and garments stores.
There are fears that the situation in Lebanon may degenerate further, as it did in summer last year. Then, dozens of Syrians were kidnapped and their property destroyed after media outlets erroneously reported the death of the kidnapped pilgrims. "We too have become hostages to the conflict," said Hussein. AFP

U.S. closer to widening Syrian rebel aid
By Anne Gearan, Apr 10, 2013/The Washington Post Wednesday, April 10, /LONDON — Britain and the United States heard pleas Wednesday from Syrian rebels for more aid and equipment, an expansion the United States appears more willing to approve despite political disarray among members of Syria’s opposition and concerns about al-Qaeda militants in the rebel ranks. Secretary of State John F. Kerry had strongly hinted Tuesday that the Obama administration is edging toward a widening of support, saying that the stalemate in Syria leaves “no choice” but to increase pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from outside.
He gave no details, saying that an announcement would come from the White House, but he said the administration has engaged in an intense discussion of the rebels’ needs over the past week.
Kerry and British Foreign Secretary William Hague met in London on Wednesday with select members of the Syrian political opposition, and the escalating humanitarian crisis and rising death toll in Syria overshadowed a session of the Group of Eight foreign ministers here. The Syrians asked for more aid, including weapons, but were not specific, according to a senior State Department official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details of the closed diplomatic meeting. Kerry made no specific promises, the official said, adding that much of the discussion focused on ways that a small group of nations helping the rebels can be more effective.
The opposition group also said it is trying to get “better organized,” the official said, a reference to infighting based partly on divisions over militant affiliations in the ranks.
Kerry, Hague and several other foreign ministers also agreed to meet again in Turkey on April 20 to discuss further assistance to the outgunned rebels fighting to oust Assad. The two-year-old civil war has left more than 70,000 people dead, according to U.N. estimates, and created more than 1 million refugees. “We’re always considering a variety of our options. We’re going to continue to aid the opposition, working with them in terms of what they need, in terms of what we’re willing to provide,” the State Department official said. Syria is the main subject on the agenda at a dinner meeting of foreign ministers Wednesday. Britain, the host, has already announced it will provide extensive battlefield support to the rebels, including body armor, and may expand aid to include armored vehicles. France also plans wider battlefield aid.
Kerry also discussed Syria with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose country supplies Assad’s forces and has blocked tougher international action on Syria. France and Britain are pressing to lift or alter the European Union arms embargo on Syria. “This is turning into the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the 21st century so far, and we cannot watch this happen,” Hague told reporters Tuesday, according to Reuters news service. “We certainly believe that it’s necessary to continue, if the situation continues to deteriorate, to increase the practical help we give to the Syrian opposition,” Hague said.
The Cairo-based Syrian opposition figures came to London at Hague’s invitation, during a G-8 session intended to widen international contact with potential Syrian leaders apart from Syrian Opposition Coalition chairman Mouaz al-Khatib. Khatib has submitted his resignation but remains on the job. Ghassan Hitto, prime minister of the temporary Syrian government-in-exile, was among those Kerry and Hague met with behind closed doors.
Syria’s Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as the al-Nusra Front, has formally pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, Reuters reported, citing an audiotape posted online Wednesday.
The Jabhat al-Nusra militants fight alongside U.S.-backed rebels and are a major reason for the Obama administration’s reluctance to send heavier weaponry that it argues could fall into the wrong hands. The announcement of a formal link with al-Qaeda came up at the lunch, the State Department official said, but the official suggested the development was regarded as old news.
“The links were well-known,” the official said.

Syria crisis: Al-Nusra pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda
BBC/The leader of the al-Nusra Front, a jihadist group fighting in Syria, has pledged allegiance to the leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani said the group's behaviour in Syria would not change as a result. Al-Nusra claims to have carried out many suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks against state targets. On Tuesday, al-Qaeda in Iraq announced a merger with al-Nusra, but Mr Jawlani said he had not been consulted on this. Al-Nusra has been designated as a terrorist organisation by the US. Debates among Western leaders over whether to arm Syria's rebels have often raised the concern of weapons ending up in the hands of groups such as al-Nusra."The sons of al-Nusra Front pledge allegiance to Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri," Mr Jawlani said in a recording released on Wednesday. But Mr Jawlani said al-Nusra had not been consulted on the merger with al-Qaeda in Iraq and insisted his group would not change its stance in Syria. The al-Nusra statement assured Syrians that the "good behaviour" they had experienced from the front on the ground would continue unchanged, the BBC's Jim Muir reports from neighbouring Lebanon. Mr Jawlani said that the oath of allegiance to Zawahiri "will not change anything in its policies", our correspondent adds.
Controversial ties

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State in Iraq, which is the Iraqi wing of al-Qaeda, had said on Tuesday that his group would be joining with al-Nusra under the name The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. But Mr Jawlani said he only heard about the announcement from media and had no prior knowledge of it. Correspondents say that although it is widely believed - and al-Nusra Front has acknowledged - that there are strong ties between it and the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda, it is clearly not something the group wants to highlight. Al-Nusra is seen as trying to win the support of the population in rebel-held areas, and also to keep the goodwill of the other opposition groups who do not want to be associated with al-Qaeda. Spokesmen for the Free Syrian Army, considered the main armed opposition group in Syria, reacted to Wednesday's statement by distancing themselves from al-Nusra."We don't support the ideology of al-Nusra," FSA spokesman Louay Meqdad told the AFP news agency. "There has never been and there will never be a decision at the command level to coordinate with al-Nusra," Mr Meqdad went on, while admitting that there had been co-operation between FSA brigades and al-Nusra on "certain operations". Also on Wednesday, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said the crisis in Syria will be at the "top of the agenda" when G8 foreign ministers meet in London this week.

Salam must save Lebanon from Syria
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat/Wednesday 10 April 2013
The morning after Tammam Salam was nominated as the new prime minister of Lebanon, a newspaper known for its affiliation with the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, welcomed him by asking, “How can you declare that you stand by the Syrian uprising when you are the premier of a consensual government, and you know that the March 8 alliance supports Bashar Assad’s regime and the March 14 alliance opposes it, why would you say that?” However, despite this negative stance adopted by this particular newspaper, Salam is perhaps the only Sunni man in the history of Lebanon to have been appointed following a general consensus among political parties. He received the votes of 124 MPs irrespective of their affiliations and positions, while only 4 abstained from the voting.
Parliamentary support for Salam was accompanied by international support. The Saudi king and the Russian president sent him messages, while Saad Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister, sent him his private jet. Luckily for Salam, President Assad did not call him, but the Iranian ambassador in Beirut voiced his leadership’s wishes for success. Of course, he did so whilst reminding Salam of what that leadership refers to as the “resistance,” namely Hezbollah. The congratulatory session soon turned into a debate as the new prime minister responded to Iran’s envoy by asserting that if Hezbollah’s arms were targeted against Israel, then they are legitimate. However, he set the condition that the “decision of war and peace should be in the hands of the Lebanese state and limits should be set to any use of weapons domestically.” Everyone is after the new prime minister, realizing that Lebanon may be the next battlefield. Yet at the same time no one wants this, including the Iranians who are usually enthusiastic to support proxy wars. They have no interest in involving Hezbollah in another battle while the conflict in Syria is raging on. We do not know much about the new prime minister other than the fact that he comes from a deep-rooted political family. His father was a former Lebanese premier in the 1950s. Yet Tammam Salam has never previously competed for the prime ministerial position, nor has he requested it. Those who know Salam regard him as an intellectual “Beiruti” who loves music and theater. He is on good terms with everyone in his neighborhood, which is close to a Shiite locality. Salam clearly has all the requirements for being the Lebanese prime minister at this particular stage in the country’s development. However, the country’s crises far outweigh any single person’s capabilities, and it will not be easy to protect Lebanon from drowning if the Syrian dam collapses. It is in everyone’s interest, except that of the Assad regime, to prevent the flood and protect civil peace from the internal conflicts that we currently see between the Sunni, Shiite, Alawite and Palestinian blocs.
How can Salam convince Hezbollah not to send its missiles and men across the border to Syria, so thousands of Syrian fighters do not end up coming over to Lebanon and, in turn, transferring the war to the neighboring country? How can Salam save the areas of Lebanon that the Syrian regime is currently targeting with shellfire and direct occupation? How can he protect his Sunni citizens who complain of provocation by Hezbollah’s militia? How can he convince Sunni extremists to abandon establishing armed militias under the pretext of creating a balance with Hezbollah and protecting their own territory? How will he prevent Israel from creeping forward because it claims Hezbollah has stolen from its chemical and strategic arms stockpiles? Above all this, how will Salam provide for the thousands of Syrian refugees and the other hundreds of thousands who will certainly flee if the fighting in Syria intensifies in the upcoming months? As we can see, Salam was handed the ship’s helm in the middle of a storm. Hence it was not strange that he was appointed through consensus.
 

We can’t designate Hezbollah a terror group, Cypriot minister says
In Times of Israel interview, visiting FM affirms ties with Israel remain solid despite Jerusalem-Ankara detente, but cautions: Turkey always receives but doesn’t reciprocate

By Raphael Ahren April 10, 2013/The Times Of Israel

http://www.timesofisrael.com/we-cant-call-hezbollah-a-terrorist-group-cypriot-minister-says/

Citing its friendship with Lebanon, Cyprus said it was unwilling to unilaterally declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization, despite the fact that a Limassol court sent a member of the Shiite group to prison for his role in a plot to kill Israelis two weeks ago.
However, Cyprus will not block such a designation if the European Union (of which it is a member) accedes to international demands to brand the group a terrorist organization, Cypriot Foreign Minister 
Ioannis Kasoulides told The Times of Israel Tuesday in Jerusalem.
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In a far-reaching exclusive interview, the foreign minister also discussed the future stability of bilateral relations, especially in light of the recent rapprochement between Jerusalem and Ankara and Cypriot-Turkish enmity. Turkey invaded and occupied half of the island of Cyprus in 1974 and established the unrecognized state of Northern Cyprus.
“The EU has to take the collective decision [regarding declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization], by which all will have to abide,” Kasoulides said. “Certain individual member states have taken unilateral decisions regarding Hezbollah. I think that everybody must appreciate that Cyprus, being a very small country and very close to the area, is not in a position to take unilateral decisions. But if there are collective decisions by the EU we will abide by them.”
Israel, the US, the UK and other states, including Egypt and Bahrain, have added the Shiite group to their lists of terrorist organizations, but the EU has so far refused to do so. Officially labeling Hezbollah a terrorist entity would significantly hamper its ability to operate. But doing so requires unanimity among the EU’s 27 member states, which until now has not been achieved, mainly because of French objections.
However, since a Bulgarian police investigation earlier this year blamed Hezbollah for a July 18, 2012, terrorist attack in Burgas that killed five Israelis and a Bulgarian, calls have grown louder for the union to rethink its stance. Such demands further intensified after a Cypriot court convicted and sentenced to four years in prison Hezbollah operative Hossam Taleb Yaacoub for a plot to attack Israeli tourists in the Mediterranean island nation.
Yaacoub, who holds Lebanese and Swedish passports, was arrested in the summer of 2012 on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack against Israeli visitors. During the trial, he acknowledged membership in Hezbollah and admitted to having staked out areas frequented by Israelis, but claimed he did not know his work was part of a plot to kill them.
His crimes “potentially put in danger the safety of Israeli citizens as well as targets on the territory of the Republic of Cyprus,” the judges declared.
“The Cypriot court’s decision,” the Israeli Foreign Ministry stated after the verdict was announced in Limassol, “in conjunction with the results of the Bulgarian investigation of the Burgas attack, create a clear picture of Hezbollah’s penetration into European Union states in an attempt to carry out terror attacks against Israeli targets on European soil.” Jerusalem repeated its calls on the EU to label the group a terrorist organization, and diplomats from several member states said that the findings in Cyprus and Bulgaria increased the likelihood of that happening.
Kasoulides on Tuesday pledged to “go along with the consensus, if there is one,” yet resolutely refused to make a unilateral statement on behalf of his government. While the UK and the Netherlands have taken that step in absence of a unanimous EU decision, these are “two big countries, and far away,” he argued.
As the main reason for Nicosia’s refusal to blacklist Hezbollah, Kasoulides cited his country’s close ties with Lebanon. “On several occasions, when there were civil wars or other forms of war in Lebanon, we were hosting many Lebanese in Cyprus,” he said. “Whatever happens — considerations regarding law and order or whatever — we need to preserve our friendship with this country. Because we sympathize also with them, and the fact that they had so many times been the victims of extraneous conflicts that had nothing to do with them. We also have this in mind.”
The fact that a Cypriot court convicted one Hezbollah operative for preparing a terrorist act alone is not enough to proclaim the group a terrorist entity, Kasoulides argued. “There was an indisputable fact that has taken place in the territory of the Republic of Cyprus, adjudicated by the justice system of Cyprus. But it is obvious that it was one event only — that’s the only evidence we’ve got.”
The EU will collect additional information about other alleged Hezbollah activity and eventually arrive at a conclusion, he added. “It’s far easier for the EU to make such a decision, other than an individual decision taken by Cyprus based on the one event that has taken place in its territory.”
Cyprus has already “done a lot on this issue,” he added. “The next step is up to Brussels, not to Cyprus.”
Kasoulides, who was appointed foreign minister in Cyprus’s new center-right government earlier this year after having already served in that position from 1997 until 2003, visited Israel Tuesday together with Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism Minister Giorgos Lakkotrypis.
The visit made headlines in Israel because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled his meeting with the Cypriot dignitaries due to his talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry, who was in Jerusalem at the same time. The Cypriot ministers were initially offered an opportunity to meet with International Relations Minister Yuval Steinitz instead, but Kasoulides and Lakkotrypis refused. The Prime Minister’s Office eventually rescheduled and a meeting with Netanyahu was held later on Tuesday.
PM Netanyahu with Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides (C) and Energy and Commerce Minister Yiorgos Lakkotrypis, April 09, 2013. (photo credit: Kobi Gideon/GPO/Flash90)
While PMO officials Wednesday said the meeting was “good,” without providing any details about its content, Israeli media called it a “diplomatic incident,” noting that bilateral ties are currently extremely delicate, especially since Jerusalem’s recent détente with Ankara and the new light that could shine on regional energy cooperation.
But Kasoulides, who spoke with The Times of Israel before meeting the prime minister, said that Nicosia’s friendship to Israel was guaranteed regardless of Jerusalem’s ties to other countries.
“Despite the differences that we have with Turkey — and we have many, and there is a lack of trust from Cyprus to Turkey and vice versa — we have never seen the relations of Turkey with other countries, and in this case Israel, as a zero sum game regarding Cyprus,” he said. “We are not in this kind of antagonism or competition. In this modern world, the position that the friend of your enemy is not your friend anymore does not apply.”
The Cypriot government “very much” appreciated that Netanyahu called President Nicos Anastasiades immediately after last month’s apology to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident, in which clashes between pro-Palestinian activists and IDF troops aboard the Mavi Marmara ship resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens. On March 22, Netanyahu apologized for “operational mistakes” and pledged to compensate the families of those killed. In turn, Erdoğan agreed to restore full diplomatic ties with Israel.
But since then, Ankara has dragged its feet and not taken the hoped-for steps to normalize relations, leading some Israeli analysts to call Netanyahu’s move — urged by the US, and carried out in the final minutes of President Barack Obama’s visit to Israel — a grave error. While Kasoulides declined to opine on whether the apology was a good or bad move, he expressed skepticism about the Turkish government’s true intentions.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (photo credit: AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici)
“It’s the Mavi Marmara issue that has been resolved between Israel and Turkey. What would be the declared policy of Turkey to try and play a sort of leader of the Muslim world, that’s a different story and remains to be seen,” he said, referring to the Turkish leader’s alleged quest for regional hegemony. It is difficult to believe that relations “can improve so dramatically a few days after Prime Minister Erdoğan has equated Zionism to fascism, for instance. But it’s not up to me to foment this kind of discord between Israel and Turkey,” Kasoulides said.
Cyprus knows from experience that “Turkey is always in the habit to receive but not to be able to reciprocate,” he added. “This happens in the case of the relations between Cyprus and Turkey so I cannot tell how things will develop between Turkey and Israel. It is a good thing for somebody to be cautious and see.”
Turkish-Israeli détente — an energy game-changer?Analysts of regional energy policies have also pointed out that an Israeli-Turkish reconciliation would be a game-changer in that Jerusalem could choose to partner with Ankara rather than with Nicosia in exporting the country’s natural gas. “It is possible that a cooperation in energy between Turkey and Israel would follow an anticipated rapprochement,” Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yıldız said this week.
Kasoulides said Cyprus was very interested in energy partnerships with Israel — indeed, it was the main reason for this visit, he said — yet he allowed that his country has no right to claim a monopoly of such cooperation.
Netanyahu, in his March phone call to President Anastasiades, said the détente with Turkey “would not affect in any way the relations between Israel and Cyprus, and in particular the relations in the energy sector,” Kasoulides said. “That was the content of the conversation, that was the purpose of the conversation.”
The PMO confirmed that Netanyahu called Anastasiades and vowed to “continue to expand bilateral relations,” but refused to provide additional details regarding the conversation.
 

Tired of the Brotherhood, Egyptians Want the Military Back But Only Temporarily
Eric Trager/The Atlantic/Washington Institute
April 10, 2013
A new military takeover would not provide any more of a path to stability than the increasingly autocratic Muslim Brotherhood, yet this may be where Egypt is heading.
During a recent trip I took to Egypt, non-Islamists openly admitted that their increasingly violent protests against the government of President Mohammed Morsi, including a string of arsons targeting Brotherhood headquarters nationwide, are intended to force the military to reclaim control. "There will be bloody action in the street, and the army will come," Heba, an Alexandria-based leader of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, told me. "I don't want this, but the people will be happy."
This weekend's anti-Christian violence in Egypt, which left six people dead, has amplified calls within the country for the Egyptian military to reclaim power. Those calls aren't new. Ever since Morsi's November 22 constitutional declaration, through which the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated leader declared virtually unchecked executive authority, non-Islamist activists have demanded the end of the Brotherhood's rule. Public support for a new military takeover then grew tremendously after December 5, when the Brotherhood used organized violence against protesters outside the presidential palace. According to one poll, 82 percent of Egyptians now want the military back in power.
None of the non-Islamists I interviewed -- most of whom were demonstrating against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces only nine months earlier -- viewed a military takeover as ideal. But they seemed oddly confident that a second military junta would be short-lived and benevolent. "We just want the military to protect us during the intermediate period, not rule," said Islam, a member of the revolutionary Suez Youth Union, who later admitted to staging a provocation that he and his colleagues used as a pretext for burning a local Brotherhood office.
Yet despite this pro-military mood swing, the generals are staying away from direct political involvement for the time being. Rather than ruling, the military is focusing squarely on managing its narrow, mostly economic interests. In some cases, it is even using its vast resources to boost its image while the Brotherhood's falters. This will help the military justify its return to power if Egypt's current political chaos threatens its assets.
Even as violence has become a constant feature of Egyptian politics, with clash-inducing protests destabilizing sections of major cities, the Egyptian military has largely stayed to the sidelines. In the three major Suez Canal cities over which the military technically assumed control in late January, military police are barely visible on the streets, and military personnel largely keep to protecting state assets, such as the canal itself. And despite occasional military statements warning that its "patience" with the Brotherhood is wearing thin, a top military leader told me that the military isn't eager to run the country. It's trained to fight wars and protect borders, he said, not to police cities or operate government services.
The Egyptian military, however, hasn't fought a major war since 1973, and its meager performance preventing weapons from being smuggled into Gaza suggests that its border-protection skills leave much to be desired. Instead, it has spent the past four decades building a vast financial empire, including extensive land-holdings and control of major industries, which is believed to comprise between 15 and 40 percent of Egypt's economy. And it's expanding those assets through the establishment of new development projects that seem geared toward improving its public standing.
In late February, I visited one of these new development projects in Suez, where the military is building a shopping and community-center facility. At the center of this project is the Badr Hypermarket -- an uncommonly pristine grocery store, at least by Egypt's standards, selling western and local products at significantly discounted prices. (I played a brief game of "The Price Is Right" with the military officer who oversees the supermarket; a toothbrush that normally sells for 6 Egyptian pounds sells for a mere 75 piasters here -- an 87.5 percent discount!) The military is able to provide these discounts because virtually every employee -- from the cashiers to the stock-boys to the janitors -- is an enlisted soldier. Right next-door, camouflage-uniformed cadets were hard at work constructing a building that would house a refrigeration unit, and there are additional plans to build a clothing store, a food court, and soccer fields.
In providing discounted goods to the broader population, the military is adopting an outreach model that the Muslim Brotherhood perfected long ago. But Colonel Yasser Wady, who oversees the entire facility along with his enlisted, iPad-toting subordinates, dismissed any notion of using the development project to compete with the Brotherhood. "The idea [for the facility] came from the people. They always communicate with the army of Suez," he said.
Well, I asked, had President Morsi, as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces under the new constitution, signed off on the use of public funds for building this military-run shopping complex? "He should!" the colonel responded. "If you're the president, and there's something in the people's interest, should you sign off on it? If he's smart, he'll agree. If he doesn't sign, he's not smart." (Other officers told me, off-the-record, that Morsi had not been notified of the facility's construction, and expressed their view that the military had no obligation to alert him of this fact.)
No matter what the military's intentions are, however, the Suez project is boosting its image just as the Brotherhood's is plummeting, and it's feeding hopes for a military coup. "The chants of 'down with military rule' have ended," Sayyid Noon, a Suez-based journalist, told me, adding that many youth revolutionaries now consider Brotherhood-rule worse. "The military has a good place here," he said. "[It] is selling food at half-price...People appreciate the army."
Col. Wady was coy about whether the military would consider retaking power to restore order if the current chaos continued. "The army will serve the needs of the people," he said. And yet when I asked him whether those caught shoplifting from the military-owned supermarket would be tried before military courts, as is permissible for "crimes that harm the Armed Forces" under the new constitution, the colonel was much more direct. "It depends on how much they steal," he said wryly.
It was a small, but perhaps telling, indication that the Egyptian military won't provide the path towards stability any more than the increasingly autocratic Muslim Brotherhood. The teargas-covered protests against the Brotherhood domination, after all, were teargas-covered protests against military trials only a year ago. And yet this may be where Egypt is heading.
**Eric Trager is the Next Generation fellow at The Washington Institute.