Bible Quotation for today/Temptation & Endurance

James 01/09/18: "Happy are those who remain faithful under trials, because when they succeed in passing such a test, they will receive as their reward the life which God has promised to those who love him.  If we are tempted by such trials, we must not say, “This temptation comes from God.” For God cannot be tempted by evil, and he himself tempts no one.  But we are tempted when we are drawn away and trapped by our own evil desires.  Then our evil desires conceive and give birth to sin; and sin, when it is full-grown, gives birth to death. Do not be deceived, my dear friends!  Every good gift and every perfect present comes from heaven; it comes down from God, the Creator of the heavenly lights, who does not change or cause darkness by turning.  By his own will he brought us into being through the word of truth, so that we should have first place among all his creatures.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources

Tammam Salam: between Future and Miqati/By: Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/April 05/13

How do middle-class Canadian kids become international terrorists/By Matthew Coutts/April 05/13

Obama should prepare his apology now//By Michael Young/The Daily Star/April 05/13

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 05/13

Canada/RCMP seek information about Canadians in Algeria attack

March 14, Jamaa Islamiya Name MP Tammam Salam for Premiership

Jumblat Says Nominated Salam after Rejecting Rifi: I Will Not Accept One-Sided Govt.

Tammam Salam Meets Hariri, Prince Bandar amid Reports Hizbullah, AMAL Back his Candidacy as PM

Jumblat and Bloc Members File Electoral Candidacies Based on 1960 Law
Report: Lebanese Detained in Saudi Kingpin of Alleged Iranian Spy Cell
Al-Rahi to Head to France Monday for Talks with Senior Officials
Saudi Ambassador Urges Lebanese Wisdom in Resolving Disputes
Miqati Won't Accept PM's Post Unless there is 'Consensus' on His Nomination

Third Canadian Linked to Two Accused in Algeria Attack
Bkirki statement helps the search for common ground
Parties wait to see what Lebanon’s ‘kingmaker’ Walid Jumblat says

Most of Syria’s rebels share strong roots in Islam

Bulgarian Diplomat: Sofia Waiting for Lebanese Cooperation on Burgas Probe

Al-Rahi to Head to France Monday for Talks with Senior Officials

audi Ambassador Urges Lebanese Wisdom in Resolving Disputes

U.S. Urges Syria to Respect Lebanon's Sovereignty

Rival Camps Mull Names for Premiership as MP Salam Holds Talks with Hariri

French Court Reverses Decision to Release Georges Abdallah

Airport Security Arrests Syrian for Attempting to Smuggle Drugs to Saudi Arabia

Arslan Meets Berri: Consultations to Reach an Agreement over Consensual PM-Designate are Ongoing

Suleiman Asks Qahwaji to Deliver FM Reports on Syrian Raids, Calls for Establishing Refugee Camps inside Syria

Two Charged in Baqaata Clash between PSP, Tawhid Party Supporters

Jumblat and Bloc Members File Electoral Candidacies Based on 1960 Law
U.S. firm to conduct another gas survey deep in Lebanon’s sea

Fuel smuggling from Syria into Lebanon could hit revenues
Syrian regime targets smuggling routes near Arsal in fresh airstrikes

Israel PM Wary ahead of Iran Nuclear Talks

Up to 600 European Jihadists Have Fought in Syria

North Korea threatens U.S. strike ‘today or tomorrow’

Kerry to Make New Middle East Visit

Egypt Urges Quick End to Probe into UAE Detainees

Syrian guerrilla fighters being sent to Iran for training 

RCMP seek information about Canadians in Algeria attack

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/mounties-break-silence-canadians-algeria-attack-192902302.html
CBC – .RCMP have confirmed that the remains of two young men from London, Ont., named Ali Medlej and Xris Katsiroubas were found at the site of a deadly attack on an Algerian gas plant. RCMP Supt. Marc Richer made the announcement at a news conference in Ottawa on Thursday afternoon, adding that the police force is "seeking the assistance of the public" to find out more about the events leading up to the men going overseas. CBC News had previously revealed the identities of the two high school friends, who are believed to have travelled to the North African country to join al-Qaeda and international militants who staged a deadly attack on a gas plant there in January. A third man from London named Aaron Yoon, who is about 24, travelled with the pair to North Africa and is currently in jail in Mauritania, which neighbours Algeria. He appears to have had no role in the gas plant attack. Mauritania's ambassador to Canada, Ahmed Ould Teguedi, told CBC's Melissa Kent that Yoon has been detained in Nouakchott, Mauritania, "for some time."Teguedi also said a representative from the Canadian Embassy in Rabat, Morocco, travelled to Mauritania to meet with Yoon after he was detained. The RCMP is saying little about their investigation. Richer said it has been underway for "a number of months."  Asked whether the RCMP are still trying to determine if the remains of other Canadians are at the Algerian gas plant, Richer replied: "I will tell you that the work with respect to the remains continues."
How Medlej and Katsiroubas became involved in the gas plant attack isn't yet clear, but sources suggest they were influenced by one man operating in southwestern Ontario. Yoon was raised a Catholic, but he converted to Islam a year before graduating high school, along with his friend Katsiroubas. All three men had attended London South Secondary School. CBC News has learned that RCMP in London were asking questions about the three men in June 2012, seven months before the Algeria attack. When Immigration Minister Jason Kenney was asked on Tuesday whether Canada is losing the battle against homegrown extremists, he said he believes "our record is very sound on this" but cautioned that the public should still be "vigilant."
 

March 14, Jamaa Islamiya Name MP Tammam Salam for Premiership
Naharnet /The March 14 forces announced on Thursday that they have chosen Beirut MP Tammam Salam as their nominee for premiership. "We have agreed on nominating Salam to head the future cabinet,” al-Mustaqbal bloc head MP Fouad Saniora said after the forces meeting at the Center House. He added: "The lawmakers of the alliance and of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya will officially inform President Michel Suleiman about their candidate during Friday's parliamentary consultations". The March 14 figures held a broad meeting at the Center House on Thursday to exclusively discuss this issue. Salam later joined the meeting after arriving from a trip to Saudi Arabia's Riyadh, LBCI television reported. Salam thanked March 14 for nominating him, hoping that this would "reflect in the best interest of Lebanon". Several media reports have said that he will be named the head of a new government, especially in light of his recent visit to Saudi Arabia. Earlier on Thursday, the Beirut MP held talks with former PM Saad Hariri at the latter's residence in Riyadh on various developments, most notably the government situation in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said that Salam met with Saudi Intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan also in the Saudi capital. MTV reported that Hizbullah is likely to nominate Salam to the premiership “because he is a consensual and non-provocative figure". The Development and Liberation bloc is also expected to endorse his candidacy, it added. Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) had reported earlier that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat had contacted March 8 officials in order to inquire if they support Salam's candidacy, but he was met with vague answers “that were neither negative nor positive". Sources close to the Free Patriotic Movement however told VDL that an agreement over Salam had not been reached, explaining that he is not a consensual figure and is affiliated with the March 14 camp.
LBCI later revealed that FPM leader MP Michel Aoun is expected to announce his position on the consultations over appointing a new premier on Friday after the Change and Reform bloc's meeting.
Binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier are scheduled to be held on Friday and Saturday with President Suleiman at the Baabda Palace.

Tammam Salam Meets Hariri, Prince Bandar amid Reports Hizbullah, AMAL Back his Candidacy as PM
Naharnet/Attention has shifted towards MP Tammam Salam amid reports that he will be named the head of a new government, especially in light of his recent visit to Saudi Arabia. Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said that Salam met with Saudi Intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan in Riyadh. He later held talks for over two hours with former Primer Minister Saad Hariri on various political developments in Lebanon, most notably the government situation. Meanwhile, MTV reported that Hizbullah is likely to nominate Salam to the premiership “because he is a consensual and non-provocative figure.”
The Development and Liberation bloc is also expected to endorse his candidacy, it added. Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) had reported earlier that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat had contacted March 8 officials in order to inquire if they support Salam's candidacy, but he was met with vague answers “that were neither negative nor positive.” Sources close to the Free Patriotic Movement however told VDL that an agreement over Salam had not been reached, explaining that he is not a consensual figure and is affiliated with the March 14 camp. OTV later revealed that FPM leader MP Michel Aoun is expected to announce his position on the consultations over appointing a new premier during its evening newscast. Binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier are scheduled to be held on Friday and Saturday with President Michel Suleiman at the Baabda Palace.

Jumblat Says Nominated Salam after Rejecting Rifi: I Will Not Accept One-Sided Govt.
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat announced on Thursday his support for nominating Beirut MP Tammam Salam for premiership, stating that he will not take part in any one-sided government.
"I have picked Mr. Tammam Salam and I have contacted him,” Jumblat said in an interview on LBCI television. He added: "He is the son of a historic, moderate family and I hope he will be positively received by everyone”.
Jumblat remarked: “I don't want to say that (al-Mustaqbal Movement head MP) Saad Hariri was dismayed when I proposed Salam, but his response was tepid, and when I contacted Hizbullah, they had the same response”.
He elaborated that he was asked by Hizbullah whether he had another candidate: “I said no, because he hails from a moderate family and he has never said a single bad word against the Resistance”.“I'm still a centrist and when I allowed myself to name Tammam Salam, I named the historically centrist political dynasty,” Jumblat stated. “There is an MP who maybe liked my centrist position and he might be among our ranks during consultations tomorrow and I'm not talking about (Democratic Party leader MP) Prince Talal (Arslan)”. He revealed Hariri's pick for premiership, however, was former Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi.
"I told Hariri that Rifi is a confrontational candidate”.MP Salam is most likely to become the head of the next cabinet, after the March 14 forces announced earlier on Thursday that they have chosen him as their nominee for premiership. "The lawmakers of the alliance and of Jamaa Islamiya will officially inform President Michel Suleiman about their candidate during Friday's parliamentary consultations,” said al-Mustaqbal bloc head MP Fouad Saniora after a March 14 broad meeting at the Center House which was exclusively dedicated to discussing this issue.
Salam, who later joined the meeting after arriving from a trip to Riyadh where he met with ex-PM Hariri and several Saudi figures, thanked the convened figures for their nomination, hoping that this would "reflect in the best interest of Lebanon".Several media reports have said that he will be named the head of a new government, especially in light of his visit to the KSA. MTV reported that Hizbullah is likely to nominate Salam to the premiership “because he is a consensual and non-provocative figure". The Development and Liberation bloc is also expected to endorse his candidacy, it added.
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun is expected to reveal his stance on this matter on Friday after the Change and Reform bloc's meeting, LBCI television said.
Binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier are scheduled to be held on Friday and Saturday with President Suleiman at the Baabda Palace.
Jumblat pointed out that he will not endorse or participate in any one-sided cabinet. "I will only grant my vote of confidence to a government formed by all parties,” he confirmed.
He explained: “Since there is no international sponsor and since we can't await the outcome of the Syrian crisis, is it so hard to form a national unity cabinet? This cabinet would start its work with addressing the issues of Khandaq al-Ghamiq, al-Asir and Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh”. The PSP leader called for managing differences inside the cabinet until the end of the Syrian crisis.
Regarding the ministerial Policy Statement, Jumblat said it is to be decided by the ministers participating in the national unity cabinet. Jumblat warned against any move against Hizbullah's weapons: “My words were clear during my meeting with Prince Bandar that whatever the outcome of the Syrian revolution might be, let no one think of any negative move against Hizbullah”. “I will not accept to condemn the party and I don't approve of (U.S. President Barack) Obama's description,” he stressed. “In the heart of Saudi Arabia, I said we want dialogue with Hizbullah in Lebanon and I call on Hariri to engage in dialogue, organize the differences and implement the self-dissociation policy, which is the best slogan, and I hope Salam will follow suit as we await the grand settlement”.

Report: Lebanese Detained in Saudi Kingpin of Alleged Iranian Spy Cell
Naharnet/A Lebanese businessman, who is suspected by Saudi authorities of espionage for a foreign country, is reported to be the key player in spy cell that was unveiled by Saudi in March. Sources said in comments published in the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Thursday that the Lebanese suspect, a Shiite, is the most “dangerous” detainee in the network. The man is reported to hold a European nationality, which the sources refused to reveal. On March 19, the interior ministry in Riyadh said authorities had arrested 16 Saudis, an Iranian and a Lebanese citizen in four regions including Eastern Province. The sources said that the Lebanese man was in charge of the financial transactions of the network. “The Lebanese man paid clients after they presented him with the necessary espionage information,” they added. Interior Minister Marwan Charbel had said last month that Saudi authorities are carrying out “secret” interrogations with a Lebanese businessman. He pointed out that the Lebanese state has “confidence” in Saudi authorities and awaiting clarifications. Concerning the Iranian suspect, the sources pointed out that he is a PhD student at the Islamic University of al-Madinah al-Munawarah. The Iranian suspect, in his later thirties, is also said to be a media figure for a private satellite religious channel. Saudi Arabia said the alleged spy cell had "direct links" to Iran's intelligence services, while Iran's foreign ministry has strongly denounced the accusations. The Saudi charge d'affaires was summoned after "the publication of the baseless claim by Saudi Arabia," the Mehr news agency reported, citing a foreign ministry statement. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab monarchies have strained ties with Iran over what they call Tehran's interference in their internal affairs and its continuing support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Gulf Cooperation Council accuse Iran of supporting Shiite opposition protests in GCC member Bahrain. Saudi Arabia's estimated two million Shiites, who frequently complain of marginalization, live mostly in the east where the vast majority of the OPEC kingpin's huge oil reserves lie.

Al-Rahi to Head to France Monday for Talks with Senior Officials
Naharnet /Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is expected to head to Paris on Monday on a four-day official visit to meet with senior French officials. An Nahar newspaper reported on Thursday that al-Rahi will hold talks with French President Francois Hollande on the second day of his visit. Al-Rahi will also meet with Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. Media reports said that the visit comes in light of the recent developments on Lebanon after Prime Minister Najib Miqati resigned and the failure of the rival parties to reach consensus over a new electoral law. Miqati's resignation on March 22 prompted calls for the resumption of the national dialogue. His resignation further complicated the political crisis in Lebanon after signs began appearing that the Hizbullah-led March 8 forces are seeking a national salvation cabinet while the March 14 opposition alliance wants a neutral government. The Central News Agency reported that al-Rahi will kick off a pastoral tour in Latin America after his Paris visit. The tour will last until the end of May and include Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Costarica, Colombia and Venezuela.

Saudi Ambassador Urges Lebanese Wisdom in Resolving Disputes
Naharnet/Saudi Ambassador Ali Awadh Asiri called on Thursday for the formation of a cabinet that reflects the expectations of all the Lebanese people, saying national dialogue was necessary to resolve disputes.
“Saudi Arabia doesn't interfere in Lebanon's internal affairs and we hope for consensus on the formation of the new government,” Asiri told reporters in Bkirki following talks with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi.
The diplomat said there should be a “Lebanese solution” to the new cabinet. The rival March 8 majority and March 14 opposition alliances were on Thursday making separate last-minute consultations before announcing their candidates for the premiership. Binding consultations with parliamentary blocs and independent MPs will be held at Baabda palace on Friday and Saturday. Asiri hoped that the formation of the new cabinet would be a chance for consolidating national unity and coexistence, saying the Lebanese should resolve their disputes through wisdom and dialogue as called for by President Michel Suleiman. “All the Lebanese – officials, politicians, party members and citizens - should put their nation's interest before all other interests and resort to a deep and constructive national dialogue that unifies their ranks,” he added.

Miqati Won't Accept PM's Post Unless there is 'Consensus' on His Nomination
Naharnet/Caretaker PM Najib Miqati stressed on Thursday that he will not accept to be nominated to lead the new government unless there was consensual agreement on him among political parties.
“I thank everyone who wanted to name me to lead the new cabinet but I will not accept this honor unless I gained the approval and consensus of all parties,” said Miqati in a statement.
“When I submitted my resignation, I had a belief that this would break the political deadlock. I had hopes that my resignation would open a new opportunity for political parties to reach common ground to confront the dangers threatening our country and distance it from being dragged to the abyss,” added Miqati. Assuring that he exerted strenuous efforts not to take sides during his term, he said: “All through my tenure I tried my best not to be dragged into political alignments that could increase the rift between the Lebanese. “Today I call all factions to commit to the standards of national consensus to save Lebanon. I have always stressed that any government to be formed should be a national salvation one that represents all factions,” added the caretaker PM. He concluded voicing hopes to prioritize Lebanon's interest above everything else. His resignation came hours after President Michel Suleiman suspended cabinet sessions for failing to pass a decision on the formation of an elections committee to supervise the upcoming parliamentary polls. Media reports have said that MP Tamman Salam will likely receive the backing of the majority of parliamentary blocs and independent MPs. Salam held talks with Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex PM Saad Hariri in Riyadh on Thursday, a sign that the March 14 opposition alliance will name him along with the centrist Progressive Socialist Party of Walid Jumblat to lead the new government. The coalition will officially announce its pick for the PM's post during a meeting at the Center House on Thursday night.
Agence France Presse

Jumblat and Bloc Members File Electoral Candidacies Based on 1960 Law
Naharnet /National Struggle Front members led by MP Walid Jumblat submitted on Thursday to the interior ministry their candidacies for the parliamentary elections.
The National News Agency said the seven candidates are Jumblat, Nehme Tohme, Elie Aoun and Alaeddine Terro from the Shouf district, Akram Shehhayeb representing electorates in Aley, Ayman Shuqair from Baabda and Wael Abu Faour from the Western Bekaa. The submission of their candidacies for the polls was based on the controversial 1960 law that considers the qada an electoral district and is based on the winner-takes-all system.
The delegate of Jumblat's Progressive Socialist Party, who submitted the candidacies, told reporters outside the interior ministry that the move was in harmony with the stance of President Michel Suleiman on avoiding a vacuum in the absence of a new electoral law. “The 1960 law is still effective until we agree on an alternative electoral law,” said Nashat Husniyeh. Asked why PSP member Caretaker Minister Ghazi Aridi hadn't filed his candidacy, Husniyeh said: “Aridi is not willing to run in the polls.”The filing of candidacies by Jumblat's bloc is likely to draw the anger of the main Christian parties that on Wednesday agreed during a meeting chaired by Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkirki not to run in the upcoming elections under the 1960 law. The leaders and representatives of the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Phalange Party and the Marada Movement also agreed to suspend the so-called Orthodox Gathering proposal, leaving the door open for rival MPs to strike a deal on a new electoral draft-law. The proposal, which had been severely rejected by Jumblat's bloc, considers Lebanon a single district and allows each sect to vote for its own MPs under a proportional presentational system. The Christian leaders asked Caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel on Wednesday to stop accepting applications from candidates registering to run in the polls under the 1960 law. But Charbel told Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) that he can't prevent anyone from filing his candidacy. “The Bkirki meeting's request is not based on the law. It is only moral,” he said.

Third Canadian Linked to Two Accused in Algeria Attack
Naharnet/Canada's public broadcaster identified on Wednesday a third Canadian linked to a pair of former schoolmates implicated in an attack on a desert gas plant in Algeria in January. Aaron Yoon, 24, reportedly flew to North Africa with the others, but wound up in jail before the attack that left at least 67 dead. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation said Yoon, a Canadian of Korean descent, grew up with Xris Katsiroubas and Ali Medlej -- two Canadians who were among dozens of militants involved in the attack -- in a middle-class neighborhood in London, Ontario. Yoon, who was raised Catholic, and Katsiroubas, from a Greek Orthodox family, converted to Islam. Citing "international intelligence sources," the CBC said there is no evidence Yoon ever intended to participate in the attack. Canadian federal police however were said to have been tracking him and his alleged accomplices for at least six months prior. A fourth member of the group who also traveled abroad with them appears to have disappeared, it said. Federal police confirmed on March 23 that at least two Canadian citizens were among the al-Qaida-linked fighters who stormed the In Amenas plant in eastern Algeria on January 16, but otherwise officials have not commented on the case. At least 38 hostages -- 37 foreigners and one Algerian -- and 29 militants were killed during the siege and rescue attempts by the Algerian army. Agence France Presse

How do middle-class Canadian kids become international terrorists?
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/bunch-middle-class-canadian-kids-become-international-terrorists-153159135.html
By Matthew Coutts
National Affairs Reporter
By Matthew Coutts | Daily Brew
Xristos Katsiroubas, left, and Ali Medlej.There are no straightforward answers when it comes to understanding what led Xristos Katsiroubas and Ali Medlej to abandon their lives in London, Ont., to join an Al-Qaida-linked militant group that attacked and took hostages at an Algerian gas plant.
The two boys have been described recently as average, everyday-type Canadians. That seemed to be the case right up until shortly before they flew overseas and died in the Algerian attack in January.
CBC News reported on Wednesday that a third schoolmate had travelled with the pair to North Africa and was jailed shortly before his cohorts died participating in the attack in Algeria.
Aaron Yoon was another average Canuck, a boy of Korean descent who was quiet and friendly and converted to Islam in his final year of high school.
Another run-of-the-mill Canadian who somehow ended up engaged in extremism of the worst kind. As Christie Blatchford points out, the London boys are not the first to surrender to the lure.
[ Related: Ontario mosque leaders reject links to extremism ]
Three former University of Manitoba students, two of them Canadian, sparked an international search after flying to Pakistan in 2007 and disappearing. Another Canadian is suspected in the 2012 bombing of a Bulgarian bus.
And then there was the Toronto 18, a group that had the means to detonate explosives, the plans to do it and had already held a training session when they were arrested.
"Like the nice lads from London, they too were on the face of it good Canadian boys," Blatchford writes. "They picked Christmas for the date of their training camp because they were Canadian kids who knew the country shuts down at that time of year. One worked at a Canadian Tire gas bar. They went for coffee at Tim Hortons."
In fact, CBC News reported earlier this month that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) have between 50 and 60 Canadians under surveillance because of alleged ties to terrorism.
So the question is how. How does this keep happening? How do overseas extremists manage to court kids who could otherwise attend the same university as you, play at the same curling club or stop at the same coffee shop?
[ More Brew: Algerian terror attack latest Canadian jihadist involvement ]
In 2011, CSIS published an intelligence report on radicalization in Canada. The report was recently alluded to in a message by CSIS director Richard Fadden, who stated that reasons vary for each individual, but that each shares some common elements.
The targets tend to hold grievances against Western governments and society and share a belief that the Muslim world is under attack. This makes them more susceptible to charismatic leaders and propaganda available online.
Michel Juneau-Katsuya, a former CSIS intelligence officer, told the London Free Press that in the case of the London boys, indoctrination almost certainly occurred near home, likely with the help of the Internet. But it didn’t happen overnight.
“There is an attempt, a strategy by Al Qaeda to specifically try to convert young men who are not Muslim background because they will travel easier, they will go under the radar easily,” he told the newspaper. “The radicalization process doesn’t happen overnight. You don’t have an epiphany moment in your shower, ‘Oh, I just realized I am a Muslim today.’ It takes a certain process, time. It is repetition, discourses and indoctrination.”
Prof. Christian Leuprecht, a Queen’s University terrorism expert, told the National Post's Stewart Bell new converts may engage in terrorism in an attempt to prove themselves.
“This is partially, conceivably, what may be driving some of this, that you’ve got to show that you’re willing to do things for the cause that other people aren’t, to show that you’re a true believer, as a sort of litmus test,” he said.
There is no suggestion that Yoon, the third Londonite, was planning to participate in the Algerian attack before his arrest. But, as in the case of his cohorts, something led the 24-year-old to abandon his life in Canada and jet overseas.
As CSIS director Fadden says, each case is a different story.

Syrian guerrilla fighters being sent to Iran for training
Reuters – HOMS PROVINCE, Syria -
The Syrian government is sending members of its irregular militias for guerrilla combat training at a secret base in Iran, in a move to bolster its armed forces drained by two years of fighting and defections, fighters and activists said. The discreet programme has been described as an open secret in some areas loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, who is trying to crush a revolt against his family's four-decade hold on power.
Reuters interviewed four fighters who said they were taken on the combat course in Iran, as well as opposition sources who said they had also been documenting such cases.
Israel's intelligence chief and a Western diplomat have said Iran, Assad's main backer, is helping to train at least 50,000 militiamen and aims to increase the force to 100,000 - though they did not say where the training occurred.
No one at Iran's foreign ministry was available for comment, but Iranian officials have repeatedly denied military involvement in the Syrian conflict, saying they have only provided humanitarian aid and political support for Assad.
A Syrian government security source, who declined to be named, denied that Syria was sending fighters to Iran. "We train our own special forces for this type of combat," he said. "Since 2006 we have had units trained in guerrilla warfare, why would we need to send people to Iran?" But if the reports by Syrian fighters are true, the move to train combatants in Iran suggests that their country's increasingly regionalised conflict has grown well beyond - and could even outlast - a battle for power between Assad's circle and the opposition. The fighters also appear to come largely from minority groups that have supported Assad against the mostly Sunni Muslim-led uprising. Such a move could exacerbate the dangerous sectarian dimensions of a conflict that has turned into a civil war that has cost the lives of more than 70,000 people.
REGIONAL INFLUENCE
Iran, a Shi'ite rival to Sunni countries in the Gulf that support the rebels, sees Syria as the lynchpin of its regional influence. Syria has been its conduit to the Lebanese guerrilla movement Hezbollah, which fought a war with Israel in 2006. "It was an urban warfare course that lasted 15 days. The trainers said it's the same course Hezbollah operatives normally do," said Samer, a Christian member of a pro-Assad militia fighting in rural parts of Homs province in central Syria. "The course teaches you the important elements of guerrilla warfare, like several different ways to carry a rifle and shoot, and the best methods to prepare against surprise attacks."
According to fighters interviewed in Homs, most men sent to undergo the training are from the Alawite sect, the heterodox strain of Shi'ite Islam of which Assad himself is a member.
A smaller number were Druze and Christians, whose communities are divided but largely support Assad due to their fears of rising Islamist rhetoric among the opposition.
"The Iranians kept telling us that this war is not against Sunnis but for the sake of Syria. But the Alawites on the course kept saying they want to kill the Sunnis and rape their women in revenge," said Samer.
"DIE AN UGLY DEATH"
Syrian residents living in areas controlled by the army or militias say irregular forces have been increasingly "regularised" in recent months. These groups now brand themselves as the "National Defence Army" and seem to operate as a parallel force to the official armed forces - more lightly armed but without any of the oversight or responsibilities.
Since 2011, security forces organised groups called "popular committees" for neighbourhood watches. These later became militias nicknamed "shabbiha", from the Arabic word for ghost.
Shabbiha groups have been accused of some of the worst massacres of Sunni civilians, including one incident in the central town of al-Houla, in Homs province, in which more than 100 people were killed, half of them children. Authorities blamed rebels for the killings.
It is unclear how many former shabbiha fighters have been sent on courses in Iran, but some interviewees said they had assembled in groups of around 400 before being flown to Iran in smaller numbers. They believed the offer of training was open to many pro-Assad militias operating across Syria.
Syrian shabbiha fighters say Iran is also training Syrians and supporting their forces inside Syria, so it is not clear why courses have been run in Iran.
The fighters interviewed said they believed the training implied a growing crisis of confidence between Iranian forces and the Syrian army, which has been plagued with corruption as well as defections to the rebel side.
Nabeel, a muscular Christian fighter from Homs nicknamed "The Shameless One", said Iranian trainers repeatedly lectured on looting, a crime widely committed by fighters on both sides.
"On our first day of training, the Iranian officer overseeing our course said, 'I know exactly what is going on in Syria and want to tell you one thing: If you joined the National Defence Army for looting and not to defend your country, you will die an ugly death and go to hell'."
SECRETIVE TRAINING
The trainees interviewed said they were divided into groups. Some trained as ground forces with automatic rifles and mounted anti-aircraft guns, others as snipers.
The groups were all flown from Latakia air base to Tehran International Airport and then directly bussed to an undisclosed location, they said.
"As soon as we arrived we were put on buses with windows covered by curtains and they told us not to open the curtains," said the fighter Samer.
"We drove about an hour and a half before reaching the camp. It was straight from the airport to the camp, from the camp to the airport. We didn't see anything other than that camp."
All four combatants, who come from different towns and different militias, separately described the same experience. They said they were usually grouped into units of about 60 for training. The fighters said they were trained by Iranian officers who spoke Arabic but also relied on translators.
The units also had contact with Lebanese fighters, said the participants, who suspected those men of being Hezbollah militants helping to conduct training or participate in courses.
"There were some groups from Hezbollah training at the same base but there was no communication between our groups. They did their thing, and we did ours," said Sameer, another militiaman from Homs. "I think their training was tougher than ours."
GULF SEEKS TO "BLEED" IRAN
Iran has supported and helped train Syria's army under long-standing military cooperation agreements, but a push into training its paramilitary forces could aggravate regional rivals such as Israel, which is particularly wary of Syrian groups increasing coordination with Hezbollah, or Saudi Arabia.
"If the Saudis felt that the Iranians are really moving this game up, they will be sure to check that escalation by increasing assistance to rebel fighters," said Michael Stephens, a Doha-based analyst for the security think tank RUSI.
"Saudi Arabia is totally focused on this as a way to make the Iranians bleed ... keep the Iranians bogged down in this proxy war, bleed them dry."
The fighters described the training as far superior to skills they had been taught in courses inside Syria.
"Before I could only hit targets 50 percent of the time, now I can hit a target around 90 percent of the time," said Samer.
"In Syria, they made the priority defending the place we are in, no matter the price. In Iran, they told us to save our lives. If you lose the position but survive, you can recoup and regain the site another day. If you die, your position will eventually be lost."
(This article was reported by a journalist in Syria whose name is withheld for security reasons)
(Writing and additional reporting by Erika Solomon; Editing by Giles Elgood)
 

Bkirki statement helps the search for common ground
April 04, 2013/By Hasan Lakkis/The Daily Star
For some time now, Speaker Nabih Berri has been busy declaring that the so-called 1960 election law was “dead and buried.” But according to sources from the March 8 majority, the statement that was issued Wednesday by rival Maronite leaders, after meeting in Bkirki under Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai, should also be considered an official funeral notice for the law, which governed the last round of elections in 2009. It is no longer possible to hold parliamentary elections under this law, the sources said, adding that it would be impossible to hold any election round before some six months go by. This is the period of time that caretaker Interior Minister Marwan Charbel has said his ministry required to prepare for elections under a new piece of legislation. The sources said that the Bkirki statement, in which Maronite leaders pledged that they would not run for elections under the 1960 law, had dealt a blow to attempts by President Michel Sleiman, in cooperation with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt and the Future Movement, to hold polls based on this voting system.
Attending the meeting at Bkirki were Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh, Metn MP Sami Gemayel, representing his father Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel, and Chouf MP George Adwan on behalf of Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces. The Bkirki conclave was unscheduled, and came in response to a request by the speaker. Earlier in the day, Father Antoine Khalifa visited Berri and passed on a message from Rai, the contents of which were undisclosed. Berri’s response, conveyed by Khalifa to the patriarch, was to ask the leading Christian politicians to assemble in Bkirki and deliver their latest ultimatum on the 1960 law. On Sunday, prior to Easter Mass in Bkirki, Rai and Sleiman sat down for a talk about the elections impasse. However, according to the sources, the two men were unable to agree on not holding the elections based on the 1960 law. After the Mass, the president reiterated his insistence on holding the elections on time, and expressed his rejection of extending the term of the legislature if consensus on an electoral law failed to materialize. The March 8 sources said the Maronite figures’ decision to “suspend” their own Orthodox Gathering proposal, in a bid to give rival groups a chance to agree on an alternative law, would put pressure on the PSP and the Future Movement to accept an electoral law by which more than half of MPs are elected based on a proportional representation system.
The sources speculated that it would be relatively easy for the various parties to reach consensus on nominating a figure for the prime minister’s post, because the candidate would be unable to form a government amid the current divisions, and because elections wouldn’t be able to take place in the next six months. The sources called efforts made by Berri, the Future Movement and Jumblatt to achieve consensus on a prime minister-designate helpful, adding that Hezbollah and Amal were trying to defuse tension in the country to prevent any potential deterioration in the security situation. In the event that rival parties agree on an electoral law before Parliament’s term expires on June 20, the sources said, then it would be possible to see them facilitate the job of the prime minister-designate in forming a Cabinet to supervise the polls. The sources added that the statement issued from Bkirki, and the meeting of March 8 figures at Berri’s residence earlier in the day, worked to prevent further disagreement between rival political factions.

U.S. firm to conduct another gas survey deep in Lebanon’s sea
April 04, 2013/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: The American energy exploration firm ION Geophysical was awarded a contract to conduct a seismic survey of an additional 1,650 kilometers off Lebanon’s coast, Energy and Water Minister Gebran Bassil announced Wednesday. ION will delve 40 km below Lebanon’s seabed, Bassil said, compared to the last 3-D seismic surveys which was at 12 km beneath the sea. Under the terms of the new contract, ION will do the study at its own expense and Lebanon will earn between 15 to 50 percent of the revenues from data sales. Bassil said that the latest 3-D survey Lebanon has signed with the international energy exploration firm will help narrow down the geological location of the hydrocarbon deposits in Lebanon’s 22,000 kilometer zone of the Levantine Basin and determine whether the country’s potential petroleum deposits are in the form of oil or gas. “Israel and other countries that claimed to be friendly have tried to prevent Lebanon from seeking to exploit its oil wealth,” Bassil said. “The strength factor of Israel has shifted thanks to Lebanon’s strength and the role of the resistance. Thanks to the resistance, Israel can no longer prevent Lebanon from extracting its oil resources.”The Energy Ministry was not available to comment on whether the new area to be surveyed is in the disputed portion of Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone bordering Israel. The Britain-based company Spectrum has surveyed 3,000 km off the southern coast of Lebanon. The Lebanese government has earned a net of $31 million from the sale of gas data to international firms.

Fuel smuggling from Syria into Lebanon could hit revenues
April 04, 2013/By Mohamad El Amin/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Up to a million liters of smuggled low-quality gasoline has been pouring into Lebanon from Syria on a daily basis since mid-March, industry sources said, warning that the trade was endangering vital state revenues.
“Low-grade gasoline is being smuggled in staggering quantities into Lebanon from Syria every single day. Smuggling is thriving and is run by powerful mafias,” said Sami Brax, head of the Gas Station Owners’ Association.
Bahije Abou Hamze, head of the Oil Importers Association, told The Daily Star that despite the general shortage of fuel in Syria, the high margins of profit, given Syrian subsidies and high Lebanese taxes, are making the illegal trade very lucrative. Abou Hamze, who shares Brax’s estimates regarding the quantities of smuggled fuel, said the trade’s major impact would be on treasury revenues. He added that the smuggled gasoline was often mixed with chemicals that posed a risk to health and vehicles. At the current tax rates, Lebanon would be losing up to $256,000 a day in both gasoline tariffs and value added tax if Brax and Abou Hamze’s estimates are accurate.
Abou Hamze said most quantities were being sold in border areas in the Bekaa Valley. Lebanon saw imports of hydrocarbons plummet by 42.6 percent in the first two months of the year, recent customs data compiled by Bank Audi show. As a result, Lebanon’s trade deficit reported a double-digit contraction, easing by 23.7 percent year-on-year to a total of $2.7 billion, the bank added in its weekly newsletter.
This decline could suggest that Lebanon’s controversial re-exports to Syria are diminishing, particularly since it coincides with more than a dozen shipments of gasoil reaching government-controlled ports in February and March
The shipments, Reuters reported, ended months of isolation and were a further sign yet that oil dealers’ reluctance to supply the war-ravaged country was fading after Syria started allowing private sector companies to import fuel in January. While it is legal to supply Syria with refined products such as gasoil, selling the fuel to the state’s oil trading and distribution firms has been prohibited by both U.S. and EU sanctions.
However, Abou Hamze denied any substantial decrease in private sector imports of fuel, adding that the decline could be explained by fewer Electricite du Liban and Energy Ministry imports in the first two months of the year.

Syrian regime targets smuggling routes near Arsal in fresh airstrikes
April 04, 2013/By Rakan al-Fakih/The Daily Star/ARSAL, Lebanon: A Syrian helicopter fired two missiles Wednesday targeting smuggling routes in the eastern Bekaa Valley, one kilometer away from an Army checkpoint.
The missiles hit a region in the outskirts of the village of Arsal, called Sraj al-Qaisar. The area is known to be a smuggling hub for goods meant to reach Syrian rebels, a senior town figure told The Daily Star.
The area targeted was just 200 meters away from the Awad family home. Preliminary reports said the missiles hit the home at around 11 a.m. But the deputy mayor of Arsal, Ahmad Fliti, said the missiles struck a route near a residential home on the outskirts of Arsal. Less than two hours after the attack, Syrian tanks fired two shells on the border region of Masharih al-Qaa, killing seven sheep. They said the 1 p.m. attack that damaged an orchard near the border with Syria, also wounded several sheep. The two incidents were the latest in a series of Syrian violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Residents of Arsal have been outspoken opponents of the Syrian regime since the uprisings began in the neighboring country two years ago. The attack comes in parallel with the escalation of clashes between the Syrian army and the opposition fighters in Al-Qusair, a city in the province of Homs, in the past few days. In the past week, Syrian war planes increased their flights along the border, above the eastern mountains and the border villages in the northern Bekaa Valley and over Hermel.

U.S. Foreign Ministry Urges Syria to Respect Lebanon's Sovereignty
Naharnet /The U.S. foreign ministry called on Syria's cabinet on Wednesday to respect Lebanon's sovereignty, MTV reported. This comes after Syrian warplanes pounded earlier on Wednesday a house on the outskirts of the eastern border town of Arsal.The house belongs to a member of al-Awad family, the state-run National News Agency reported, adding that the shelling only caused material damage. The region of Arsal has been said to be used for the smuggling of arms and the flow of fighters across the border. Arsal is a majority Sunni town, many of whose residents support the revolt against President Bashar Assad in neighboring Syria.
The area lies on the border with Syria, and has become home to thousands of people fleeing their the conflict. Scores of Syrians injured in the violence have been brought into Arsal for medical treatment in recent months, and there have been reports of fighters and arms being smuggled in. Syrian authorities had threatened to attack Lebanese territories if “terrorists” continue to infiltrate the country from Lebanon.

Most of Syria’s rebels share strong roots in Islam
April 04, 2013/By David Ignatius/The Daily Star
As the battle for Damascus approaches, the array of Syrian opposition forces facing President Bashar Assad appears to share one common trait: Most of the major rebel groups have strong Islamist roots and backing from Muslim neighbors.
The Free Syrian Army has developed a rough “order of battle” that describes these rebel groups, their ideology and sources of funding. This report was shared last week with the State Department. It offers a window on a war that, absent some diplomatic miracle, is grinding toward a bloody and chaotic endgame.
The disorganized, Muslim-dominated opposition prompts several conclusions: First, the U.S. will have limited influence, even if it steps up covert involvement over the next few months. Second, the post-Assad situation may be as chaotic and dangerous as the civil war itself. The Muslim rebel groups will try to claim control of Assad’s powerful arsenal, including chemical weapons, posing new dangers.
Although the Syrian revolution is 2 years old, the rebel forces still haven’t formed a unified command. Gen. Salim Idriss, commander of the Free Syrian Army, has tried to coordinate the fighters. But this remains a bottom-up rebellion, with towns and regions forming battalions that have merged into larger coalitions. These coalitions have tens of thousands of fighters. But they lack anything approaching the discipline of a normal army.
Even though the rebels have only loose coordination, they have become a potent force. They have seized control of most of Aleppo and northern Syria, and they are tightening their grip on Damascus, controlling many of the access routes east and south of the city, according to rebel sources. Free Syrian Army leaders believe that the battle for Damascus will reach its climax in the next two to three months.
Rebel shells have hit landmarks in central Damascus, such as the Sheraton Hotel and the neighborhood of Abou Roummaneh, where many diplomats are based. To the east, rebels now appear to control Ghoutha, which commands eastern access to the city, and are firing on the Damascus airport. To the west, they are reportedly shelling the neighborhood of Mezzeh.
The lineup of opposition military groups is confusing to outsiders, but rebel sources say there are several major factions.
The biggest umbrella group is called Al-Jabha li-Tahrir Souriyya al-Islamiyya. It has about 37,000 fighters, drawn from four main sub-groups based in different parts of the country. These Saudi-backed groups are not hardcore Islamists, but are more militant than the political coalition headed by Sheikh Moaz al-Khatib, who last week took Syria’s seat in the Arab League.
The second-largest rebel coalition is more extreme and is dominated by hardcore Salafist Muslims. Its official name – Al-Jabhat al-Islamiyya li-Tahrir Souriyya – is almost identical to that of the Saudi-backed group. Rebel sources count 11 different brigades from around the country that have merged to form this second coalition. Financing comes from wealthy Saudi, Kuwaiti and other Gulf Arab individuals. Rebel sources estimate about 13,000 Salafist fighters are gathered under this second umbrella.
A third rebel group, known as Ahfad al-Rasoul, is funded by Qatar. It has perhaps 15,000 fighters.
The most dangerous group in the mix is the the Nusra Front, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. By one rebel estimate, it has grown to include perhaps 6,000 fighters. But this group, perhaps fearing that it will be targeted by Western counterterrorism forces, is said to be keeping its head down – and perhaps commingling with the Salafist umbrella group.
Idriss and his Free Syrian Army command about 50,000 more fighters, rebel sources say.
Realistically, the best hope for U.S. policy is to press the Saudi-backed coalition and its 37,000 fighters, to work under the command of Idriss and the Free Syrian Army. That would bring a measure of order – and would open the way for Idriss to negotiate a military transition government that would include reconcilable elements of Assad’s army.
“Consolidating forces under Gen. Idriss would extend his recognition and credibility,” explained a Syrian rebel activist in Istanbul Tuesday night. But without a strong Saudi push, this coordination is a long shot.
Rebel sources here say the opposition has developed plans to train Syrian police, purify water supplies and teach forces how to dispose of chemical weapons – all pending approval. Such plans offer the best chance for mitigating the Syrian disaster. What is the U.S. waiting for?
*David Ignatius is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.
 

Parties wait to see what Lebanon’s ‘kingmaker’ Walid Jumblat says
April 04, 2013 01:05 AM
By Mirella Hodeib/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s mercurial politician Walid Jumblatt strikes again as an indispensable element in the brokering of political deals, with both sides of the divide eagerly awaiting the Progressive Socialist Party leader’s stance on the upcoming consultations to nominate a new prime minister. Ahead of binding consultations with lawmakers slated for April 5 and 6 at Baabda Palace to designate a new prime minister, the Chouf MP is expected to drop hints about his preferred candidate, and hence the objectives he thinks the new government should fulfill, during a highly anticipated television interview Thursday evening.
“Jumblatt certainly punches above his weight,” said Randa Slim, a scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “His role as the kingmaker far exceeds the demographic size and the democratic representation of his [Druze] community.” Jumblatt’s choice of prime minister will be decisive in defining Lebanon’s new majority and the shape of the next political phase, analysts argued.
“Walid Jumblatt is the most mercurial politician of the lot,” Slim continued. “As long as deep political polarization stands he will continue to excel in his role as the kingmaker of Lebanese politics.”
In 2011, shortly after the collapse of the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri over a row on the funding of the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Jumblatt and his bloc nominated now-caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, tipping the balance in favor of the March 8 coalition, which also tapped Mikati.
Groups from across the political spectrum remain unsure of Jumblatt’s pick for premier and to which side he will grant the advantage this time.
Political commentator Michael Young maintained that Jumblatt was likely to endorse the candidate the Future Movement will name to head the next government.
He said that at this stage Jumblatt would not stand against the will of the Sunni community.
“When it comes to a sensitive issue such as designating a new prime minister, Jumblatt will not back Hezbollah in the choice of a Sunni. He will go along with Future,” added Young, The Daily Star’s opinion page editor.
“He is keen on ties with the Future Movement and Saudi Arabia for patronage purposes, mainly ahead of the election season.”
Due to a long history of bloody conflicts between the Druze and the Christians in the Chouf area, the majority of Christians tend to vote against the Jumblatt ticket.
Back in the days when Jumblatt was one of the Syrian regime’s most faithful supporters in Lebanon, electoral laws were tailor-made to secure him sweeping victories.
But times have changed, and although he is still a key player, Jumblatt is facing increasing resistance, mainly from the Michel Aoun-led Free Patriotic Movement, to impose an electoral formula that suits his needs.
Sunnis constitute one-third of the electorate in the district of the Chouf, which Jumblatt represents in Parliament, while the remaining voters are split between Christians and Druze.
“Jumblatt obviously needs Sunni votes to secure a win in the Chouf,” Young added. The Future Movement is also looking to reach out to Jumblatt in his capacity as the country’s string-puller. In a step seen as aiming to please Jumblatt, the Future Movement’s parliamentary bloc announced this week that it supported the formation of a Cabinet “of politicians,” provided that candidates for the parliamentary elections would be excluded. Future had previously urged the formation of a “neutral” Cabinet.Jumblatt is against any neutral government or a Cabinet made up of technocrat figures.
Slim disagrees with Young’s premise that Jumblatt will line up with the Future Movement this time. The analyst argued that Jumblatt will adhere to the “centrist” role he has taken since the beginning of the unrest in Syria more than two years ago: “Jumblatt faces the challenge of remaining in this unique, go-between role. He will keep on perfecting this noncommittal attitude that sends signals of commitment in the direction of the two main political groups depending on specific circumstances.”
According to Young, Jumblatt has recently tended to back the camp of the March 14 alliance without wanting to join back the alliance, which he broke off from in August 2009.
“If Jumblatt rejoins the March 14 he will be more constrained by his choices,” Young said. “Jumblatt wants to be a necessity. He wants to tell the March 14 he can grant them the majority without necessarily abiding by all their stances.”Veteran politician Elie Ferzli – the man behind the electoral draft law proposing that each sect elects its own representatives, which Jumblatt strongly opposes – accused the PSP leader of taking advantage of the Sunni-Shiite split and inter-Christian tensions to bolster his position.
“Historically he has banked on divisions to better maneuver and enlarge his gains on all levels,” said the former deputy Parliament speaker. “He counts on his pivotal parliamentary bloc to strike the balance.”
Even though Slim argued that Jumblatt was well aware that Sunni-Shiite strife would have drastic repercussions across Lebanon, including his community, she acknowledged that the Druze leader operated strategically to ensure that his own interests were met. “He always situated himself in a key position so as to protect his interests,” Young added. “He makes it difficult [for others] to isolate or ignore him.”
The 64-year-old leader is notorious for shifting stances and allegiances with grand ability. A long-term ally of Assad rule in Syria, Jumblatt distanced himself from Damascus in the late 1990s and entirely broke up the association in 2000 shortly after President Hafez Assad died.
Jumblatt spearheaded anti-Syrian activism in Lebanon that culminated in large-scale popular protests demanding an end to Syrian hegemony in the aftermath of the 2005 assassination of his long-standing ally, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. His relationship with Hezbollah has also witnessed dramatic episodes in the wake of Hariri’s killing.
After a period of high tension riddled with passionate speeches against the group, Jumblatt and Hezbollah mended fences shortly after the 2008 clashes in Beirut and the Chouf, when the party and its allies launched attacks against the Future Movement and the PSP following a government decision to dismantle its private telecommunications network.
Jumblatt paid a visit to Syrian President Bashar Assad in March 2010 after he apologized for insults voiced against the Syrian leadership. In a January 2011 news conference Jumblatt said he would “always stand by Syria and the resistance,” only to reposition himself three months later, at the outbreak of the Syrian uprising, becoming one of the main backers of the revolt in Lebanon’s neighbor.
Young noted that Jumblatt worked to protect his stakes in his area of influence and stand against all attempts to isolate the Druze community.
“When he sniffs a trend, he positions himself to lead it and become an essential part of it,” he added. “Jumblatt attempts to head the curve so that others follow him.”

Obama should prepare his apology now
April 04, 2013 /By Michael Young/The Daily Star
In March 1998, President Bill Clinton issued an apology to the people of Rwanda for having done nothing to prevent the genocide of 1994, in which between 500,000 and 1 million people were killed.
President Barack Obama should prepare his apology to the Syrians. While a genocide may not be taking place, the deaths of over 70,000 people, the fact that the Assad regime is using tactical ballistic missiles and warplanes against its own civilians, and the creation of a refugee population in the hundreds of thousands demand more from Washington than the utterly useless response of today.
American interests in the Middle East may not be what they once were, but one should not overstate the point. The U.S. still has a strategic benefit in strengthening alliances with regimes that have emerged, or are emerging, from the upheaval that began in December 2010. It still has much to gain from regional stability, above all the prevention of sectarian conflict that may undermine much of what the Americans have achieved, and died for, in the past 10 years. And even if growing U.S. self-sufficiency in oil and gas makes the region less vital in terms of oil supply, there are many global economic powerhouses, such as China, that continue to rely on Middle Eastern oil. Their economic health is vital for the global economy, therefore the U.S. economy. Regional instability also affects global oil prices, which in turn impacts on economies worldwide. Saudi Arabia still can help stabilize international oil markets. The debate over Syria has gone through several permutations, many based on false premises. The most misleading argument against involvement is that the United States is not prepared to deploy forces, since, we are told, Americans have spent a decade at war and Obama wants to focus on domestic concerns, above all the U.S. economy.
That assumes that the economy is not tied into Middle Eastern tranquility. Nor is it realistic to claim that the only thing America can do in Syria is to send troops. No one has seriously proposed this, and as the war in Libya proved, there are alternatives short of American boots on the ground. Yet the Obama administration has not shown any interest in examining all options, preferring to allow events in Syria to take their course, only realizing lately that this was a mistake. But this realization has not led to a broad reconsideration of American policy. Instead, the Obama administration has preferred to engage in limited measures to shape dynamics largely pushed by others. No effort has been made to identify realistic preferable outcomes, before using American power to bring these about.
Instead, American actions show a lack of clarity and conviction. On Wednesday the Washington Post reported that the U.S. and Jordan had stepped up training of Syrian opposition combatants. The objective is for these combatants to defend a buffer zone along the Jordanian border, from where the armed opposition can attack Damascus, and through which humanitarian aid can be distributed.
However, for a buffer zone to be effective, it must have the means to protect itself from air attack. Yet the U.S. has told the Syrian rebels not to expect Western countries to create a no-fly zone above the territory. That means that the rebels will have to rely on anti-aircraft missiles. But here, too, the U.S. is very reluctant to see this happen, fearing that such missiles may eventually be used against Israel.
So what does the U.S. propose? If it has gone to the trouble of preparing Syrians to carve out a buffer zone, then it cannot ask them to forego measures necessary to protect it. But all the possible measures to do so worry the U.S., making you wonder why the Obama administration decided to train the rebels in the first place.
Similarly, for some time the U.S. has favored a political solution to the Syrian conflict. This has represented a gross misreading of reality in the country, since the Assad regime seeks to bludgeon the opposition before engaging in talks and the opposition is unwilling to speak to a mass murderer. In the absence of a military advantage by one side, there never was a serious hope for negotiations.
In failing to conclude something so obvious, the Obama administration displayed laziness, even incompetence. Yet to acknowledge that only by breaking the military stalemate could a political outcome have become possible meant giving the opposition the tools to gain the upper hand against the regime. But the administration has always said it does not want to fuel the Syrian conflict. The consequences have been that the conflict escalated anyway, Salafist-jihadists filled the vacuum, a political outcome became more remote than ever, and now the U.S. has backtracked in bolstering the rebels, realizing that the quicker the fighting ends, the better for the region.
Nor does this explain why Obama has been so reluctant to take the lead in building an international consensus over Syria. Only the Americans could find potential common ground with Russia and cobble together an accord at the U.N. Security Council. Only Washington could impose a semblance of order, while setting red lines, on Saudi, Turkish and Qatari assistance to the rebels.
All this was never going to be easy, but as the opposition gained ground, a flexible diplomatic process might have created valuable openings. But to many people Obama is above reproach. His inaction has been viewed as laudable prudence, after the George W. Bush years. But the reality is that Obama has behaved shamefully in Syria, and his administration has been lethargic and usually wrong. The president should prepare his apology now, and read it with his Nobel peace prize in the other hand. No image would better illustrate the pointlessness of American behavior in the Syrian conflict.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Tammam Salam: between Future and Miqati
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon
Prospective next prime minister considered a moderate Hariri ally
Having reportedly secured the nominations of Future Movement leader Saad Hariri and, crucially, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) head Walid Jumblatt, Beirut MP Tammam Salam appears to have sufficient backing to become the next prime minister of Lebanon when President Suleiman polls parliamentarians on the matter this weekend. NOW profiles Salam’s historical, political, and personal record.
Born in 1945, the son of six-time Prime Minister Saeb Salam, Tammam hails from a family whose wealth and prestige in the Sunni community date back to Ottoman times. An Arab nationalist who in the 1958 war allied with then-PSP leader Kamal Jumblatt against the pro-Western policies of President Camille Chamoun, Saeb Salam was resentful of his displacement as de facto Sunni chieftain by Rafiq Hariri in the 1990s. Though a reconciliation of sorts later occurred, when Tammam was first elected MP in 1996 his relations with Hariri remained lukewarm, and indeed he ran against him in Beirut in 2000, the same year his father Saeb died.
It was not until Hariri’s 2005 assassination that Salam (who had opposed the emerging campaign against the Syrian occupation) grew closer to the Future Movement, and though he never joined the party, he began thereafter to run on Hariri’s electoral lists; he eventually was appointed minister of culture in Fouad Siniora’s cabinet following the 2008 Doha Agreement. Following that cabinet’s dissolution in 2009, Salam became MP for the Beirut III district, running as an independent on March 14’s list.
Analysts thus summarized him to NOW as a March 14 dove – “between Future and [Caretaker PM Najib] Miqati” – a label further borne out in his somewhat conciliatory attitude toward March 8 magnate Hezbollah. In a leaked US embassy cable from late 2006, then-US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman recalls a meeting with Salam in which he “both defended and criticized” the Party of God, reproaching the US for labeling them “terrorists” and praising their alliance with Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. Another cable quotes him implying that the party’s arms are legitimate as long as Israel occupies Shebaa Farms.
At the same time, since 2005 he has firmly (if quietly) opposed the Syrian regime, whom he accuses in the same cable of waging a “vendetta” against Lebanon and of posing the greatest risk to the country in general. “He never joined the bandwagon of insulting [Syrian President] Assad,” said one analyst who preferred to remain anonymous. “But he doesn’t hide his March 14 credentials.” More recently, Salam condemned Miqati’s cabinet for politicizing the Syrian refugee issue and failing to “fulfill its humanitarian mission.”
As a person, too, Salam is said to be of moderate temperament – a trait that may prove useful if and when the complex business of forming a cabinet gets underway. “Anyone who knows Tammam either as a public figure or in private knows that he’s a quiet person who approaches problems in a positive manner with a firm will to get a solution rather than complicating the issue,” said Antoine Haddad, secretary-general of the Democratic Renewal (Tajaddod) Movement, an independent party that has previously run on March 14 tickets. “He’s not confrontational, but he also does not surrender on basic principles. So if he is accepted by March 8, he could be a good prime minister for the coming period.”
However, another analyst told NOW he “doubts Hezbollah would endorse” Salam. Were that the case, Salam would secure the nomination only by a slim majority, and face serious difficulties appointing Shiite cabinet ministers. “I don’t see him as someone who is ready to appoint anti-Hezbollah Shiite ministers, it’s not part of his character; he has a moderate, dialogue-prone character.”
Haddad agrees, telling NOW that Salam may try to tailor his cabinet in such a way as to bring Hezbollah on board. “My guess is that he will try to form a government acceptable by more than the majority that has nominated him [i.e. Future and Jumblatt]. I think this is the purpose behind nominating someone like Tammam and not, for example, Saad Hariri. It’s a clever approach to try to rebalance the government without excluding the other parties.”
By the same token, however, should Hezbollah reject him out of hand, his viability as a prime minister would likely prove short-lived.