LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 07/12

Bible Quotation for today/
Matthew 16/05-12: "When the disciples reached the other side, they had forgotten to bring any bread. Jesus said to them, ‘Watch out, and beware of the yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees.’They said to one another, ‘It is because we have brought no bread.’ And becoming aware of it, Jesus said, ‘You of little faith, why are you talking about having no bread? Do you still not perceive? Do you not remember the five loaves for the five thousand, and how many baskets you gathered? Or the seven loaves for the four thousand, and how many baskets you gathered? How could you fail to perceive that I was not speaking about bread? Beware of the yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees!’ Then they understood that he had not told them to beware of the yeast of bread, but of the teaching of the Pharisees and Sadducees.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Can Hezbollah give war a chance/By: Michael Young/Now Lebanon/July 06/12
In death, Yitzhak Shamir is triumphant/By Michael Young The Daily Star/July 06/12
Egypt's Islamist Future/David Schenker /Los Angeles Times/Washington Institute/July 06/12
Syria: Assad's dangerous fantasy world/By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/July 06/12

Can Hezbollah give war a chance?
Michael Young/Now Lebanon
July 6, 2012
This week there were fresh strains in the relationship between the followers of Michel Aoun and Hezbollah, as Christian and Muslim parliamentarians split over a scheme to permanently hire Electricité du Liban contractual workers. The Aounists argue that the plan, devised by the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, favors his Amal base, and accused Hezbollah of doing nothing to neutralize the dispute.
More interesting than that scrap over sectarian quotas was how the context affects Hezbollah. The party is already facing a Shia community in ebullition. Economic conditions are harder than ever; state services are in disarray; security in key Shia districts, including the southern suburbs and the Bekaa, has declined; and now, Hezbollah’s ties with its Christian partners are under stress, even if this is unlikely to turn into a full-fledged rift. Moreover, the party has failed to liberate Shia pilgrims abducted in Syria, despite early promises that they would be set free, and Shia have been expelled from Gulf states because they are associated with Hezbollah and Iran.
This is not necessarily the beginning of the end for Hezbollah. But it could be the end of the beginning—of that phase when Hezbollah’s supporters imagined the party was incapable of doing wrong. Hezbollah dominates the government and most of the security bodies, and has great sway over the army. It has chased its main rival, Saad Hariri, out of the country, replacing him with a prime minister of its choice. And yet what does Hezbollah have to show for all that authority? A Lebanese state that has never seemed so dysfunctional.
Meanwhile, the party’s principal Arab ally, Syria, is going through a savage conflict that will, in all likelihood, eventually lead to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Hezbollah has not only morally supported Assad against his own people; it stands accused of actively participating in the repression. This poses problems for a party that claims to speak on behalf of the deprived, and whose legitimacy was built on what it described as resistance to Israeli oppression.
How does all this affect Hezbollah’s strategic objectives, above all its ability to act as Iran’s vanguard in the Levant? The party has continued to underline in one way or another that its fighting capacity, like its deterrence capability, is undiminished. No one doubts that Hezbollah has the weapons to retaliate against Israel if necessary—for instance if Tehran requests this of the party following an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.
However, less clear is whether Hezbollah has both the political and logistical props in Lebanese society that would be needed to pursue a confrontation with Israel. War is not just about weaponry; it involves myriad intangibles that Hezbollah would need to secure before carrying Lebanon into what is bound to be a devastating altercation, one far worse than what we experienced in summer 2006.
And here, the picture is very hazy indeed. An Assad regime under duress might yet be able to send arms to Hezbollah in the midst of a battle with Israel. Indeed, it could be tempted to send what is most destructive in Syria’s arsenal, even chemical weapons, though what Hezbollah would choose to do with such material is a different matter.
But what of Shia morale and Lebanese national solidarity behind Hezbollah, essential ingredients in defining the latitude the party has to engage in a war, sustain it and even escalate if necessary? On both levels Hezbollah is facing serious problems. For a start, the party would have to ensure that a war looks like self-defense, which is no easy task. Lebanon’s Shia will back Hezbollah against patent Israeli aggression, but it is much more questionable whether they would do so on behalf of Iran, in defense of its nuclear program.
That said, the Shia community, given the uncertainty it is facing, does not relish the prospect of war under any circumstances. The Shia have too often suffered, too often served as cannon fodder, to readily allow Hezbollah to put them through the ringer once again. Nor will there be anywhere near the same amounts of money available for reconstruction after a forthcoming war (if one takes place) as there was six years ago. Unless destroyed Shia towns and villages are rebuilt quickly, Hezbollah’s standing could suffer in a decisive way.
As for national solidarity, Hezbollah can dream on. A majority of Sunnis, even those bitterly hostile to Israel, loathes the party. The Druze, who would absorb the first wave of Shia refugees, cannot forget how Hezbollah attacked their mountains in May 2008.
As for the Christians, the purported camaraderie between the Aounists and Hezbollah is not what it was, and the disagreement over the EDL contract workers highlighted this. Ironically, collaboration in the government has put a distance between the two sides, with the Aounists and Hezbollah pursuing incompatible objectives. Nor were the ties ever strong on the ground in the first place, despite efforts by naïve observers to read into the rapport something intense and novel.
Other than the bombing of the coastal highway and relay antennas, Christian areas were largely spared during the 2006 war. In any future conflagration, the Israelis are bound to hit a wider swathe of infrastructure targets, including the electricity grid, which will bring the war home for many Christians. Whether Hezbollah’s friends or foes, most Christians see no rationale for a war, would blame Hezbollah for doing Iran’s bidding, and would resent paying (as would everyone else) the hefty financial price that ensues.
Worrisome in all this is that Israel is watching closely. Will the Israelis be inclined, if they feel that Hezbollah is vulnerable, to initiate an assault themselves in order to do away with the party? That would be terribly foolish, but it cannot be discounted. All certitudes when it comes to Hezbollah are changing, slowly but surely.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

'Hezbollah setting IDF up for another Goldstone'
By YAAKOV KATZ 07/05/2012 18:06 Senior IDF officer says destruction in Lebanon will be extensive due to Hezbollah establishing command posts, bases in villages.
Israel’s 2009 offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, will pale in comparison to what will happen to Lebanon in a future war with Hezbollah, a senior IDF officer in the Northern Command said on Thursday.
“The destruction will be greater in Lebanon than in Israel and the amount of explosives which will fall there will be far more than what will fall here... We will need to be strong and aggressive,” the officer said.Brig.-Gen. Herzi Halevy, commander of Division 91, clarified the remark and told reporters that the destruction will be widespread due to Hezbollah’s decision to establish its command posts and bases inside villages and towns throughout Lebanon.
Halevy, who headed the Paratroop Brigade during Operation Cast Lead in 2009, said Israel would take immediate action – from the air and on the ground – in a future war that would cause “extensive damage, not as a punishment but rather to hit the enemy where it is.”“The damage will be far greater [in Lebanon] than the Second Lebanon War,” he added.
“The past six years have been the quietest along the border in more than 40 years,” Halevy said in a briefing marking six years since the Second Lebanon War.
“But we understand that there is more than one catalyst that can potentially break the quiet.”
Halevy said that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – no matter by whom – or the ongoing uprising in Syria could spark a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. In addition, increased tension between the IDF and the Lebanese Armed Forces could lead to a bigger conflict.
Last week, for example, a small force of soldiers from the Paratroop Brigade were patrolling the border when they spotted Lebanese troops standing 20 meters away and aiming their weapons –including a rocket-propelled grenade – at them. One of the Israeli soldiers, who speaks Arabic, heard the Lebanese commander dividing up targets for his men. The Israeli soldiers called in a backup force that quickly arrived at the scene, leading the Lebanese to withdraw.“These type of incidents have the ability to turn into something larger,” a senior officer said.
The IDF has spent the past year upgrading its defenses along the border. A few weeks ago, it completed the construction of a concrete wall between the Israeli border town of Metulla and the Lebanese town of Kafr Kila. The army decided to build a wall along that section of the frontier to minimize friction between the sides.
Since the war in 2006, in addition to Hezbollah’s extensive rearmament and procurement of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, the IDF has detected a concerted effort by the guerrilla group to gather intelligence on Israeli military positions along the border.The army released photos on Thursday showing Hezbollah operatives with surveillance gear along the border filming IDF movements and deployments.
In a film recently captured by the IDF, two cars are shown arriving near the Lebanese side of the border. Men wearing hooded sweatshirts are seen exiting the cars and surveying the border. One of them is holding papers. IDF assessments are that the group was possibly planning an attack against Israel along the border.“They brings operatives from northern Lebanon to teach them about the south and the terrain where they will be expected to operate in a future war,” another officer in the Northern Command said.

Former Israel's Mossad head, Dagan retracts quote that attacking Iran is 'stupid'
By HERB KEINON 07/05/2012/ Former Mossad head steps away from quote, but does not move away from the substance of his opposition to military action.
Bombing Iran is not the stupidest idea Meir Dagan has heard after all, the former Mossad head made clear in an interview in the recent issue of Lochem magazine, distancing himself from his statement earlier this year – which was widely circulated to discredit a possible Israeli military action against Tehran. “This was a miserable quote that was said absentmindedly, not in public, and which someone quotes all the time,” Dagan said in the magazine for disabled IDF veterans. “Let’s set the record straight. I think the Iranian nuclear capacity is a threat with strategic implications for Israel. I know the air force well enough to know that it will perform successfully any task entrusted to it.” While stepping away from that particular quote, Dagan did not however move away from the substance of his opposition to military action.
“I do see a nuclear Iran as a problem,” he said. “If I believed that a military attack would solve the problem, believe me, I would be in favor.
If I thought that an attack would stop the nuclear program, I would be in favor. But what can you do, an attack cannot stop the nuclear program – it can only delay it for a period of time.”
Dagan, repeating what he has been saying for months about the military option, said it was necessary for Israel to always consider what would happen the day after an attack, and that this was a discussion that should take place before – not after – military action. He added that he thought the cost of such an assault would be greater than the benefit.
He dismissed, however, the notion that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was using the Iranian threat to divert the public’s attention from issues such as the social protests and the African migrants. “I do not agree with the defense minister and prime minister [on Iran], but I do not think they are that cynical,” Dagan said. “I believe that when the prime minister raises the Iranian issue he is substantively very concerned about Israel’s security, and I do not link that with any other event.”

Clinton urges pressure on Russia, China for defending Assad
By REUTERS 07/06/2012/ US secretary of state wants countries holding up UNSC resolution on Syria to "pay a price," repeats call for int'l sanctions against Assad; Britain's Hague: There is no sitting on the sidelines on this issue.PARIS - US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged world powers on Friday to show Russia and China they would pay a price for impeding progress toward a democratic transition in Syria. "It is frankly not enough just to come to the Friends of the Syrian People (meeting) because I will tell you very frankly, I don't think Russia and China believe they are paying any price at all - nothing at all - for standing up on behalf of the Assad regime," Clinton said at a gathering of countries seeking to speed the departure of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
"The only way that will change is if every nation represented here directly and urgently makes it clear that Russia and China will pay a price because they are holding up progress - blockading it - (and) that is no longer tolerable." Russia and China have in the past vetoed UN Security Council resolutions designed to pressure Assad, who has sought to crush a rebellion against his family's 42-year rule.
In her comments, Clinton repeated the US call for a Security Council resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows the council to authorize actions ranging from diplomatic and economic sanctions to military intervention. US officials have repeatedly said in the case of Syria they are talking about sanctions and not military intervention.
"We should go back and ask for a resolution in the Security Council that imposes real and immediate consequences for noncompliance, including sanctions under Chapter 7," Clinton said. She also called for countries to better enforce existing bilateral sanctions on Syria. "Let me also add that confronted with the regime's noncompliance, it is difficult to imagine how the UN supervision mission can fulfill its responsibilities without a Chapter 7 enforcement mechanism," she said. "It is clear unarmed observers cannot monitor a ceasefire that does not exist."
British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Friday echoed Clinton's call for increased action on Syria, saying that countries that do not impose sanctions on Syrian President Bashar Assad's government are effectively allowing killings to continue. "There is no way of sitting on the sidelines on this," Hague told a meeting in Paris of the Western and Arab states that back a rebel uprising against Assad and want him out of power. "If you don't impose sanctions and implement them thoroughly you are allowing the provision to the Assad regime of the means to go on killing the Syrian people," Hague said.

U.S. Senator John McCain declares support for FSA, requests safe zone for rebels
July 06, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: U.S. Senator John McCain called Thursday for establishing a safe zone for Free Syrian Army rebels after meeting with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea at the latter’s residence in Maarab in Kesrouan, according to the National News Agency.
Heading a delegation which included U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly, McCain said after the meeting, “We discussed the situation in Syria and we voiced our belief that the longer the struggle lasts the more influential extremists such as Al-Qaeda will become in Syria.”
“I’ve always stressed the need to arm the Free Syrian Army, who need weapons, since Russia is supplying [Syrian President Bashar] Assad with weapons. We need to secure a safe zone for the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian opposition to organize their operations, train and treat the wounded,” he added. Russia has said it will continue to provide helicopters to the Syrian government, only if they stem from contracts signed before the uprising began last March.
It is unclear where McCain believes this safe zone should be established.
Turkey is currently hosting senior FSA members and several hundred army defectors in camps in the southern Hatay region of the country.
Republican McCain also said that the U.S. administration should be doing more to “help in organizing a better resistance to end the ongoing massacres,” adding that, “It’s now known that I strongly support providing arms and necessary assistance to those fighting for freedom in Syria.”
The senator also praised Lebanon for receiving Syrian refugees and providing them with assistance. Around 29,000 Syrian refugees are currently receiving aid from the U.N., the Government’s Higher Relief Committee and other organizations, but activists believe the real total is far higher.
In response to a question from El-Nashra website on fears about the length of the presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, compared to Palestinian refugees, McCain said the situations were completely different. “If we topple Assad we believe that the refugees will return home,” he said, whereas “there is no agreement between Israel and the Palestinians on a two-state solution, which is what the U.S. supports.” McCain and Geagea also discussed the Lebanese political situation. “Lebanon is facing several difficulties, most recently on the legislative level,” he said.
MPs from Michel Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc boycotted a Parliament session Tuesday in protest against a law affecting Electricite du Liban’s contract workers.
McCain added, “We want to see all groups work together again, but given the situation in the U.S., it’s difficult to criticize Lebanese domestic affairs.” He also stressed the need to boost the economy and development in Lebanon. Also Wednesday, McCain met with the Lebanese Army commander, Brig. Gen. Jean Kahwagi at his office in Yarze. Talks centered on cooperation between the Lebanese and American armies, as well as on measures to boost the capacities of the Lebanese Army, the NNA said.

Report: Advanced Technology Used in Harb Assassination Attempt
Naharnet/06 July 2012/
Advanced technology that has never before been used was employed in the assassination attempt against MP Butros Harb, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Friday.
A security source told the newspaper that the explosive that was removed from the elevator shaft could have been placed in a manner that made it difficult to detect.
Police found the device in the elevator shaft of the building that lies in Badaro district’s Sami Solh Street a few hours after the suspect carrying a knife was subdued but managed to escape along with two accomplices. The criminals were discovered before they could completely arm the device, which needed exact calculations in order to determine how much explosives were needed in order to kill the person in the elevator. Sources revealed to As Safir newspaper on Friday that the device was being prepared in a manner to make it seem that the victim would have been killed by electrical wire friction or possibly a malfunction in the elevator. “The investigations in the case are complicated and they will take time,” they emphasized. In addition, they stressed the importance of obtaining fingerprints at the scene.
Other security sources revealed that residents in the area succeeded in identifying one of the perpetrators. Asked if the criminals had headed to Beirut’s southern suburbs, the sources replied: “The footage obtained by surveillance cameras will reveal the criminals’ exact destination.” They said that the cameras monitor “every inch” of the road leading to the building.
Sources close to Harb told As Safir that the MP had received warnings that he may be the target of an assassination attempt, saying that he has since limited his mobility and changed his work routine.
The pan-Arab daily al-Hayat reported on Friday that the case has been referred to the Internal Security Forces’ Intelligence Bureau, adding that ISF chief Ashraf Rifi had inspected the crime scene.
Harb escaped the booby-trapped elevator when three people had claimed they were going to the building’s roof to fix an internet problem when a security guard and a doctor, who has a clinic in the building, felt suspicious and called security agencies to arrest them.
Two of them escaped but the third clashed with the two witnesses, injuring them, the MP said.

Miqati Hopes Qortbawi May Refer Abdul Wahed’s Case to Judicial Council amid Akkar Protests
Naharnet/06 July 2012/..Prime Minister Najib Miqati urged on Friday the residents of Akkar to exercise restraint following their blocking of roads in protest against the release of three officers and eight soldiers linked to the death of Sheikhs Ahmed Abdul Wahed and Mohammed Merheb.
He revealed in a statement that he had contacted Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi on Thursday, requesting that he study the possibility of referring the case to the judicial council ahead of placing the issue at the cabinet agenda. A meeting was held Thursday night between Akkar officials, including Mufti of the North and Tripoli, Sheikh Osama al-Rifai, to condemn the release of the officers.
They said in a statement after a meeting late on Thursday: “Such a disturbing and worrying decision failed to heed humanitarian and ethical rights of the families of the martyrs.”
The meeting included the committee tasked with following up on Abdul Wahed’s case, as well as MPs Khaled al-Daher and Khaled Zahraman.
They added: “We demand that the authorities reconsider their decision and return the suspects to custody until the complete picture in the case is uncovered.”
“We demand President Michel Suleiman to intervene in this case because we have faith that he caters to the people and nation and he swore to protect and implement the constitution,” they continued.
“We urge Miqati to hold an urgent cabinet meeting in order to tackle this issue … and immediately refer it to the judicial council,” said the Akkar officials.
“Despite the respect we owe it, the military tribunal should not act as a judge in this case,” they noted.
On May 20, Abdul Wahed and his companion, Sheikh Mohammed Merheb, were killed at an army checkpoint on Kweikhat in the North as they were headed to a rally organized by al-Daher.
The death sparked outrage in the North as residents blocked the road with burning tires in protest.
On May 21, Military Tribunal Judge Saqr Saqr detained the three officers who were responsible for the Kweikhat checkpoint, as well as the 19 members of the checkpoint.
Three officers and eight soldiers linked to the death of Abdul Wahed and his companion were released from custody on Thursday.
Five soldiers however remain in detention. LBC television reported that they me be released next week.
The gatherers added: “The assassination targets civil peace and it should be referred to the judicial council. We will then accept the verdict if the proceedings went ahead as they should.”
“We are in agreement that the army and all security forces should be protected. We had previously declared that our problem lies with the checkpoint that assaulted the two Sheikhs,” they stressed.
Furthermore, they voiced their opposition to the blocking of roads in protest against the decision, calling on the protesters to “return to their homes and leave the affair to the legal authorities.”
Residents of Akkar blocked roads in various regions in the area in protest against the decision.
Security sources told Agence France Presse on Friday that “armed groups have deployed on several roads in the Akkar district.”
“These gunmen and other unarmed groups are blocking roads with burning tires and inspecting the passing cars,” the sources said.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri condemned the release of the officers in Abdul Wahed’s case, slamming the “selective application of the law.”
He said in a statement on Thursday: “The authority of the state cannot be achieved through such practices, but through respecting the state and concerned agencies linked to the application of the law against any perpetrator.”“The Mustaqbal Movement will not remain silent over such practices that had previously led to chaos in Lebanon,” he declared.
Hariri pledged before the Akkar residents to reveal all the details of Abdul Wahed and Merheb’s death.

Cabinet under fire after Harb assassination bid
July 06, 2012/By Wassim Mroueh The Daily Star
Security forces investigate the entrance to the building where Harb’s law office is located.
BEIRUT: The March 14 coalition said Thursday the Cabinet was responsible for the attempted assassination of MP Butros Harb because it had withheld telecommunications data necessary for security bodies to uncover such plots. After holding a special meeting at Harb’s residence in Hazmieh, March 14 groups called on the Cabinet – Hezbollah and Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement in particular – to allow Internal Security Forces access to mobile phone data.
The parties also called for the attempted assassinations of Harb and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to be referred the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, formed to try the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, arguing that the cases are part of a string of assassinations and attempts targeting March 14 officials that began in 2004.
Harb, a leading March 14 official, confirmed that he was the target of an assassination attempt following the discovery of explosive detonators on the ceiling of the elevator in a Badaro building where he keeps his law office. The three men suspected of planting the devices escaped.
Harb said in a statement that a physician who has a clinic in the building became suspicious about three people who entered the elevator with him and claimed to be installing an Internet line for the building.
When the physician asked them who the client was, two fled the scene, while the third, who was on top of the elevator’s ceiling, was caught by the physician and the building’s guard, who contacted authorities.
A group of men claiming to be members of Army Intelligence arrived in a black 4x4 and one ushered in the man who was held by the guards, flashing a weapon. It was later discovered that they were imposters and the licence plate, which was recorded by the building’s guards, was fake. Shortly after the man was taken, a car approached from the opposite direction to make sure that the perpetrator escaped.
A security source told The Daily Star that the men were about to connect a bomb to the detonators when they were discovered.
The source added that assassination attempts are increasing as the Telecommunications Ministry refuses to allow access to all telecommunications data, which would equip security forces to monitor suspicious activity.
The source also said that the attempt on Harb’s life is part of a “series of assassinations that have been planned in previous months.”
“This is a serious assassination attempt that targeted MP Harb,” said the source. “It came after the assassination attempt on Samir Geagea.”
In April, Geagea escaped sniper fire at his residence.
Last month, news emerged that former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora had received warnings from regional and international parties that he may be the target of an assassination attempt. Metn MP Sami Gemayel, from the Kataeb, was advised by security sources in February to take precautions against a potential assassination attempt.
Military prosecutor Saqr Saqr examined Harb’s office and launched an investigation, while the Army and ISF units examined the scene as well.
Speaking to reporters at his residence in Hazmieh, Harb said Interior Minister Marwan Charbel had confirmed that detonators had been discovered and he was the target of an assassination plot.
“Interior Minister [Marwan Charbel] telephoned me and said he had information that some groups would kill politicians by blowing up elevators,” Harb said.
“Two detonators were found ... they were preparing for it [the bomb], and when preparing they put the bomb away from the detonator so that it would not blow them up,” Charbel said later, after a visit with Harb.
Harb said the attack would not push him to abandon his convictions and that it was the time to seriously address the security deterioration in the country. “We should raise the issue of the proliferation of arms and the political cover that people who carry arms are receiving.” The interior minister said that simply increasing the number of security forces would not be enough to fully protect politicians. “I cannot protect any figure by more than 50 percent,” he said. Charbel also said that security bodies are currently receiving incomplete telecommunications data. “But given an incident such as today’s, complete telecommunications data should be provided to seriously investigate the assassination attempt,” he added.
Top leaders and officials reached out to Harb, expressing relief that he had escaped unharmed.
President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri Prime Minister Najib Mikati, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and Angelina Eichhorst, head of the Delegation of the European Union to Lebanon, as well as others spoke with Harb following the incident. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri expressed his relief in a telephone call with Harb and discussed with him the available information on the assassination. Hariri condemned the “criminal” act and said he stands in solidarity with Harb. In a statement later, the Future Movement leader said that the attempt on Harb’s life is a clear indication that the risk of assassinations is back.“This criminal act confirms that the risk of political assassinations is back in the Lebanese arena, and that the information received by some politicians and leaders, specifically from the March 14 forces, reminds us of the wave of crimes that targeted these figures and claimed the lives of great national, political and media symbols,” Hariri said.
A host of ministers, along with MPs from the rival March 8 and March 14 camps, also called Harb, and many politicians and supporters gathered at the lawmaker’s residence to express solidarity.
For his part, Geagea said it was unacceptable that authorities have been unable to identify those behind the series of assassinations and assassination attempts targeting March 14 officials since 2005.
Addressing a news conference at his residence in Maarab, Geagea held the Cabinet responsible for the attempt on Harb’s life since it is not providing security bodies with essential telecommunications data.
“Data is a major tool to find those behind crimes in all countries except for Lebanon,” he said. “What is happening is abnormal and this Cabinet is abnormal,” Geagea added. The LF leader said the best thing the Cabinet could do to serve Lebanon is to resign. – With additional reporting by Dana Khraiche

Mikati fires back at March 14 coalition
July 06, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Prime Minister Najib Mikati fired back Friday at the March 14 coalition for laying the responsibility for the attempted assassination of MP Butros Harb at the feet of the government.
“It is unacceptable for some to ignore the intelligence of public opinion by holding the government responsible for things it is working to resolve,” Mikati told reporters accompanying him on his trip to Berlin, Germany. The March 14 coalition said Thursday the government was responsible for the attempted assassination of MP Butros Harb because it had withheld telecommunications data necessary for security bodies to uncover such plots. After holding a special meeting at Harb’s residence in Hazmieh, March 14 called on the Cabinet -- particularly Hezbollah and Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement -- to allow the Internal Security Forces access to mobile phone data. Harb, a leading March 14 figure, said following the discovery of explosive detonators on the ceiling of the elevator in the Badaro building housing his law office that he had been the target of an assassination attempt. In his response to a reporter’s question about March 14 demanding that the government resign over the attempted killing of Harb, Mikati said: “While some hold fast to their critical stances, we have remained silent long enough; I say to those hurling allegations at the government haphazardly, ‘If you have no shame, do as you please.'"
He added that there were constitutional mechanisms to replace the government but that they are currently unavailable. “Until [such mechanisms] become available, the government continues its work and productivity, and will not stop at these absurd campaigns the purposes and goals of which are known,” Mikati said.

Tripoli MP Khaled Daher: Iran and Syria controlling Lebanon’s affairs
July 06, 2012 /The Daily Star TRIPOLI: Tripoli MP Khaled Daher accused Iran and Syria Thursday of targeting Lebanon’s politics, economy and tourism by toppling former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s national unity Cabinet and installing “a government of agents” in its place. Speaking at a news conference, Daher, who belongs to Hariri’s parliamentary Future bloc, lambasted Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government, saying it has failed to resolve the country’s problems. “What we are seeing these days in Lebanon is a clear targeting of its entity and institutions. It is being targeted in politics, security, economy, tourism and industry at all levels,” Daher said. “Lebanon has been politically targeted by the Syrian-Iranian regime through the toppling of [Hariri’s] national unity Cabinet [in January 2011] and installing a government of agents for the Syrian and Iranian regime,” he said. Daher added that the Mikati government’s failure to deal with all issues has led to Lebanon’s relations with the outside world being strained. “This prompted some Arab states to advise their citizens against traveling to Lebanon,” he said. Saudi Arabia Monday joined the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain in advising their citizens against traveling to Lebanon because of security concerns.

'Next Lebanon war will be different'
Yoav Zitun Published: 07.05.12/Ynetnews
As IDF marks six years since Second Lebanon War, officials say future conflict will entail ground operation, 'incredible damage' to Beirut
IDF officials painted a bleak picture of a future conflict between Israel and Lebanon, saying that it will probably entail a massive response by the IDF, including the deployment of ground forces.
On the eve of the sixth anniversary of the Second Lebanon War, IDF officials expressed grave concern over the future of the relative calm noted on the Lebanese border.
Between the Islamist dawn in Egypt, the bloody uprising in Syria and the overall instability in the Middle East, the situation in Lebanon is seen as fairly stable; but IDF officials warned Thursday that as Hezbollah's grip on the country grows, looks may be deceiving. Any escalation can result in rocket fire on central Israel," a senior officer said.
"The next war will be different. We'll have to attack with more force, more violently, to halt any assault of the home front as quickly as possible."
Israel is aware that the deployment of ground forces "has a serious impact on Hezbollah's launching abilities," he continued, adding that ground maneuvers "Will cause them massive damage.
"Even if we go only after their military infrastructure… There will be a completely different ratio between the explosives used on Lebanon and those used on Israel."
The officer added that while any conflict that would bring into play a full-on Israeli response could be over within five or six days, "We will undoubtedly suffer quite a few casualties, both among IDF ranks and in the home front. This is why a ground deployment would be a must."
Commenting on the Goldstone Report, penned following Operation Cast Lead, the officer said that the damage caused to Lebanon by such a conflict with Israel "Will make Goldstone pale in comparison – because Hezbollah has chosen to make the most cynical use of civilian population centers."
'We won't fire first'
The IDF has clear indication that Hezbollah has increased its reconnaissance efforts along the northern border.
Most recently, the IDF has been able to detect a Hezbollah tactical command post set up in the Lebanese village of Kila, directly across the border from the northern Israeli city of Metula.
"Generally, our policy is not to be the ones to fire first, but once we are fired upon we will react with full force," a senior GOC Northern Command officer said. "We will shoot to kill."
The IDF is marking what has been lauded as the six "most stable years we've seen in the sector since the 1970s."
But Hezbollah movements on the border are evident and military sources said that there is no doubt that the Shiite terror group is getting its funding from Iran.
Brigadier-General Harzi Halevy, commander of the IDF's Galilee Division, said that the military "is thoroughly and professionally preparing for the possibility of another war; taking into account that the enemy possesses varied fire power and it is well hidden within civilian society." The next war, he added, will see the IDF "Strike with full force. We will have to go inside (Lebanon) and wreak havoc – not as punishment, but because that is where the enemy is.
"A third conflict will see Lebanon suffer more than it did during the second one. We will give the Lebanese army the chance not to be 'the enemy'; but any attack will be met with an offensive, and they will be easier to handle than Hezbollah," Halevy said.
Lebanon still licking its wounds
As for Syria's hold on Lebanon and Damascus' control over Hezbollah, Halevy said it is hard to believe that a Lebanese offensive against Israel would serve any of Syrian President Bashar Assad's objectives at this time.
The IDF is following the developments in Syria very closely, a top military source said. Should the regime be overthrown, Hezbollah may choose to strike Israel – or Israeli targets worldwide – "to set the tone."
As for concerns that various advanced weapons are, or will be, making their way from Damascus to Hezbollah, the officer said that "So far, we have yet to see things like surface-to-air missiles find their way from Syria to Hezbollah."
Knows better? Nasrallah in rare public appearance (Screenshot)
Israel believes that in many respects, Lebanon is still licking the gaping wounds it suffered in 2006 and Hezbollah is not as gung-ho to provoke a conflict as it may seem.
Hezbollah Chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah "Knows enough to be able to refrain from interfering in case of an Israeli strike on Iran," a military source told Ynet.
"There is also evidence that the Iranian affect on Hezbollah is diminishing in light of the (West's) sanctions on Tehran. Their ability to support Hezbollah has decreased."
Still, the Shiite group is constantly preparing for a possible conflict. IDF intelligence is acutely aware of Hezbollah's deployment and reconnaissance efforts along the border.
"It may be difficult to know enough to prevent the next terror attack, but in case of war, our intelligence has dramatically improved compared to the situation before the Second Lebanon War," a GOC Northern Command officer said.
"Their 'targets bank' has also grown and they are much more diverse now."
The IDF said that despite the link between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah, it is unlikely that they will coordinate their moves should a conflict with Israel erupt, fearing an intelligence breach.

Egypt's Islamist Future
David Schenker /Los Angeles Times/Washington Institute
July 4, 2012
The struggle for supremacy between the Islamists and the military is second to a more important political battle: what kind of Islamic state Egypt will become.
The election of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi as Egypt's president temporarily puts to rest the debate about whether the nation will be secular or Islamist. Egypt is an Islamist state.
Not only does a member of the Muslim Brotherhood hold the nation's highest post, nearly 75% of the legislature's seats are held by Brotherhood members or by their harder-line Salafi cousins -- or at least they were held by the Islamists before the dissolution of the People's Assembly by the ruling military council last month. Though headlines will remain focused on the struggle for supremacy between the Islamists and the military, the more important political battle in Cairo will be over what kind of Islamic state Egypt will become.
Within this new competitive theocracy, many of the differences are in degree and not in kind. Both the Salafis and the Brotherhood, for example, support the imposition of the hudud: the Islamic prescription to cut off hands of recidivist thieves. The disagreement is over how soon the penalty should be imposed.
Competition between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis is not new. Indeed, according to a diplomatic cable written by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo and published by WikiLeaks, Brotherhood leaders have been uncomfortable since at least 2009 watching its younger, more rural members "becoming increasingly Salafi-oriented."
It takes years to become a full member of the Muslim Brotherhood. To become a Salafi, one needs only to commit oneself to the cause and grow a beard. It's little surprise the Salafis are nipping at the heels of the old-school Brotherhood.
The animosity between the groups was on display during parliamentary elections last winter, when the Salafi Nour Party and the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party went head to head. In addition to trading accusations of election violations, party members often came to blows outside polling places. In May, during the first round of the presidential election, the Brotherhood and the Salafis backed competing candidates.
Even before the presidential election, the friction was clear. In January, in an effort to reassure nervous Egyptian Christians, Morsi opined that there was "no difference in the beliefs of Muslims and Christians," prompting the Salafis -- who have long baited Christians -- to demand that Morsi "repent to Allah." Morsi described the ploy as "cheap propaganda."
A month later, in a gambit to embarrass the Muslim Brotherhood, a Salafi lawmaker interrupted a legislative session by issuing the call for afternoon prayer. Then-Speaker of Parliament Saad Katatni admonished him: "You are no more Muslim than any of us."
The Muslim Brotherhood was never particularly moderate. In December 2011 the group's general guide, Mohammed Badie, predicted that his organization's success in Egypt would "lead to a rightly guided caliphate that will instruct the world." Now, internal political dynamics are likely to propel the Muslim Brotherhood toward even more militant positions as it tries to bridge gaps with its Salafi cousins.
Already, this dynamic is taking effect. In April, the Muslim Brotherhood committed to giving Salafi clerics authority to certify that Egyptian legislation is consistent with sharia, or Islamic law. And last month, the Muslim Brotherhood sided with the Salafis in opposing a $426-million Japanese loan to expand the Metro system in Cairo, calling it interest-based and hence forbidden by Islam.
But clashes are certain. Already, the Salafis have threatened to withdraw from Morsi's presidential team if he follows through on his commitment to include a woman and a Coptic Christian among his six vice presidents. In the months and years ahead, the Muslim Brotherhood could easily find itself in the uncomfortable position of opposing the Salafi-backed imposition of zakat charity on Muslims and the jizya tax on nonbelievers, or even the establishment of committees for the promotion of virtue and the prevention of vice, a la Saudi Arabia, to police Egyptian morality. At the same time, the Muslim Brotherhood may diverge from the Salafis to favor accepting a critical $3.2-billion IMF loan.
In his victory speech, Morsi spoke about reconciliation. But going forward, nervous about being outflanked on its right, the Muslim Brotherhood will see little alternative to adopting the positions of its Salafi rivals, including a stricter interpretation of Islamic law.

Egypt: "Unknown Assailants" Attack and Plunder Christian Youth
by Raymond Ibrahim • July 3, 2012
Cross-posted from Jihad Watch
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/2012/07/egypt-unknown-assailants-attack-and-plunder
Tuesday, July 3nd, three "unknown assailants" in al-Minya, Egypt, attacked two Coptic Christian youths with knives and robbed them of 1,300 pounds, before fleeing the scene. While this incident may be dismissed as a mere crime inspired by plunder, there is little doubt that the victims were targeted because they are Christian: such attacks are on the rise and coterminous with calls for Egypt's Christians to begin paying jizya. Seen as "second-class" citizens who, according to Islamic law (e.g., Koran 9:29), should be paying tribute, Christians in Islamic countries are increasingly being robbed and extorted for money—in Iraq and Syria—in lieu of jizya.
Last summer in Egypt, for instance, a priest was almost "killed at the hands of the Salafis because of his refusal to pay them jizya money…. [T]he church's priest had declared that the Copts would not pay jizya, in any way, shape, or form. This is what caused the Salafis to want to banish him from the region, so they could collect jizya from the Copts." The logic appears to be: If the Christians won't pay jizya willingly, we will take it from them by force.

In death, Yitzhak Shamir is triumphant
By Michael Young The Daily Star
July 05, 2012/
Yitzhak Shamir was the kind of person whom you didn’t remember was alive until learning that he was dead. The strange thing about many of the comments that followed the demise last week of Israel’s onetime prime minister was that he was portrayed as a relic – someone out of touch with the political temper in Israel today. For author Gershom Gorenberg, Shamir “began and ended his career as an extremist who damaged the cause of Jewish independence to which he was dedicated.” Commentator Chemi Shalev wrote that Shamir had been modest and moderate as a person, but “nonetheless a fanatic [sic] devotee of his vision of the Jewish people and the Greater Land of Israel. The end, in his eyes, always justified the means.”
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, affirmed that Shamir had been right when he once declared that “the sea is the same sea and the Arabs are the same Arabs.” The statement was interpreted as meaning that Arabs would never reconcile themselves with Israel’s existence, and would always seek to throw the Jews into the sea. For Netanyahu, despite the criticism directed at Shamir for his remark, “today there are of course many more people who understand that this man saw and understood basic and genuine things.”
Far from embodying an Israeli past defined by intransigence on the Palestinian question, Shamir has seen himself reincarnated in those such as Netanyahu. The current prime minister may be a slicker knock-off of his cynical, disdainful predecessor; he will mouth words on Palestinian statehood that Shamir would never have uttered; but the results are really little different. Israel still controls millions of Palestinian lives, a wide swathe of the West Bank, access to the Gaza Strip, and it is further consolidating this unviable state of affairs.
At the same time, Palestinians are caught in a situation similar to the one that Israel sought to impose on them through the Camp David Accords of 1978. One of the two agreements signed between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin was a “Framework of Peace in the Middle East.” It outlined a five-year transitional period, at the end of which Palestinians would gain full autonomy and self-government. Egypt viewed full autonomy as statehood. Begin envisaged it, as best, as a form of administrative self-government while Israel expanded settlement building.
The current Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, would be hard-pressed to identify how present circumstances are qualitatively different than what Begin, and with him Shamir, imagined over three decades ago. Palestinians administrate themselves in entities that are, effectively, under Israeli control; settlement construction goes on; and the Israeli prime minister continues to manipulate the card of eternal Palestinian hostility to the Jews, when his policies have closed off all horizons of amelioration for Palestinians, hardening that hostility.
More broadly, the cataleptic status of the so-called peace process is a testament to the stubbornness and bullheadedness of the heirs of Yitzhak Shamir, for whom all substantial Israeli concessions were seen as intolerable. His inflexible successors have brought the lumbering machine of open-ended negotiations to a halt. We are where for years we knew we would be: absolutely nowhere. There is much blame to distribute on the Palestinian side, but it was always Israel that retained the initiative on a final deal, because it held the land, the military whip hand, and the greater favor of the United States.
Netanyahu and his ideological pairs are confident for the future. The prime minister managed to neutralize the U.S. administration during the past four years. Barack Obama once said he would make Middle East peace a priority, and held it against George W. Bush that he had not. Now, the president has gotten the measure of that cheerless enterprise, and if one thing preoccupies him when it comes to Israel, it is to avert an Israeli attack on Iran. The Palestinians are out of the picture, and no one in Washington has a desire to embark again on what is regarded as the fool’s errand of Israeli-Palestinian talks.
Nor will things be different if Obama is re-elected; and even less so if Mitt Romney becomes president. The Israeli-Palestinian track is in permanent deep-freeze, and one fears that it will only regain life when a new crisis emerges. Indeed, what prospects do the Israelis seriously imagine that they have? The Palestinians won’t disappear – in fact their numbers, and resentment, will only grow. One day they will get over their debilitating disagreements and could opt for more a drastic solution to their desolate condition.
We can thank earlier Israeli leaders like Shamir for distilling the underlying contempt for Palestinians that seems to have influenced poor Israeli decision-making in the past 40 years. It’s the same contempt that many Israeli politicians had for Arab societies that seemed to accept the stranglehold of authoritarian leaders (leaders with whom the Israelis were otherwise content to deal). That passivity has evaporated in the past 18 months, as Arabs have sought emancipation. Are the Palestinians different? Surely not.
There are perhaps many Israelis who would accept a fair peace settlement with the Palestinians. There may even be Israeli politicians who would agree, although most tend to espouse such an agenda when they’re out of office, after having done virtually nothing to advance it while in office. But the reality is that Israel is no closer to finalizing peace with the Palestinians than it was when Shamir was prime minister. Netanyahu may have altered the optics somewhat, but the aims haven’t changed, nor the deadlock.
So Shamir can rest calmly in his grave. He was always a man better at saying no than yes. Despite a brief moment of hope during the mid-1990s, Israel’s political class in recent years has mostly followed his example. Shamir is no lost echo from a bygone time; he is Israel’s present, and an ominous portent of the country’s future.
Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR
He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Syria: Assad's dangerous fantasy world
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
As the spiral of violence in Syria continues, a question merits serious consideration: Far from being part of a possible solution, isn’t President Bashar al-Assad now at the core of the country’s problems?
Even Russia, which has dragged its feet in support of the despot, no longer seems as certain in its assessment of al-Assad’s chances of clinging to power. (Last week in Geneva, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov left the door ajar on the possibility of excluding al-Assad from a transition.)
Russia may also ponder the emerging balance of power in the Middle East. With Egypt under its new President Mohamed Mursi joining the bloc of Arab states supporting the Syrian uprising, al-Assad is left with no regional allies outside Tehran.
However, the problem with al-Assad goes beyond Realpolitik considerations. Al-Assad appears to be losing contact with reality. He seems to be spinning an alternative world of his own, making himself a prisoner in a cobweb of fantasies.
Lavrov should ask his Arabic-speaking advisors to watch and analyse an interview al-Assad granted to the Iranian state television’s Channel 4 last week. In it one finds an emotionally exhausted man who has no clue as to what is going on in the real world. And, clinging to his fantasy version, he seems to have no desire to find out.
Lavrov would have to ponder a simple question: How could a man who doesn’t even know the problem contribute to its solution?
Shorn of rhetorical adornments, al-Assad’s view of the situation is something like this: Over a decade ago, almost at the same time that al-Assad succeeded his father, the United States marketed its “New Middle East” project.
Al-Assad launched his “process of reform” in conformity with the Zeitgeist, so to speak.
However, for unspecified reasons, other events such as the Palestinian Intifada, the 9/11 attacks on the US and the invasion of Iraq, slowed down al-Assad’s “process of reform”. Elsewhere, al-Assad continued to do “what was needed”, including taking his army out of Lebanon. But, then came the war launched by Israel against Iran’s armed presence in southern Lebanon in 2006, followed by the 2009 war in Gaza.
Suddenly, al-Assad realised that what the Americans wanted was not reform but his removal from power. He had done everything to please them and failed.
The reason was that the US, motivated by its “colonialist essence”, was against al-Assad because of his support for ”The Resistance”.
Al-Assad does not tell us what he means by “The Resistance” or who is resisting whom and for what. But he insists that he is the champion of that pretense.
Support for “The Resistance” is one of three reasons why his regime is challenged by “colonial powers.” Another reason is Syria’s “geopolitical position”. Syria, al-Assad says in a schoolmarm’s tone, is “located on the tectonic plates of the Middle East”. Any change there would send ripples throughout the region. However, he does not say why anyone would want to activate the “tectonic plates”.
Yet another reason why he is in trouble is because he supports Iran’s nuclear programme. Again, he doesn’t say why Syria might benefit if the Khomeinists get the bomb.
Is Syria’s current crisis exclusively caused by external factors?
Al-Assad reluctantly admits that it is not. However, he dismisses the internal causes of the crisis as secondary.
In a rather comical answer he claims that his Syrian opponents “numbered 64,000 people” out of a population of 22 million. But how did he get such an exact number? Was there a census? Why not 64,123 or even 65,000?
And who are the people that his forces are killing every day? Al-Assad’s answer is categorical: they are members of Al Qaeda plus a handful of criminals working for money. In other words, there is no political problem. What Syria is facing is a security problem that can be solved only by “eliminating the terrorists”. “It is our duty to kill the terrorists” he says. “Every terrorist we kill saves the lives of tens, hundreds and thousands of people,” he asserts. Al-Assad's philosophy could be described as government by massacre! No need for negotiations, compromise, transition, election etc. Just keep on killing!
But who is a terrorist? A terrorist is anyone killed by al-Assad’s death-squads the Shabiha.
And, yet, he immediately adds that he had supported the Annan “peace plan” and ordered a ceasefire. However, “the terrorists” violated that ceasefire “5,000 times”, another exact number, killing the Annan plan.
One doesn’t know whether al-Assad is actually delusional or playing a role assigned to him by shadowy “ strongmen” in his entourage. What is certain, however, is that he is a one-trick pony with none of the imagination, flexibility and moderation that an effective leader needs in a time of crisis.
Instead, he appears as a man urgently in need of psychiatric help. For any transition to succeed, it is essential that al-Assad step aside, or be pushed aside. If he is not scripted out, even the simplest scenario of “change within the regime” rather than regime change would be problematic.
Al-Assad talks of “total war” while trying to implicate Syria’s neighbours in this bloody drama as a hint that he might adopt the “Samson option”. The shooting down of an unarmed Turkish fighter jet was designed as a foretaste of that strategy.
Al-Assad would do well to read Samson’s story more carefully. He would find out that the hapless Samson exercised his famous option after he had been shorn of his strength and blinded as a punishment for defying the divine will. Samson’s option was nothing more than a form of suicide with frills added for dramatic effect.