Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for September 06 /12
Massed US, UK, French navies for drill simulating breach of blocked Hormuz
Israeli Army Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz: Navy can operate anywhere in Middle East
Gantz: IDF has devastating power
Peres: Don't be alarmed by threats
Gantz: We must prepare to fight multiple fronts
Ban Criticizes Security Council 'Paralysis' on Syria
U.S. Boosts Humanitarian Aid to Syria to over $100 Million
Victimization of Egypt's Christians Worse After Revolution
The Conflict In Syria: worse, and no end in sight
Iraq's role in Syria war poses problems for US
France gives Syria "liberated zones" aid, mulls weapons: source
Now is Time for Change in Syria, Morsi Tells Arabs
EU's Ashton Urges U.N. Security Council to Back Brahimi
Mursi urges Assad to quit, says regime should learn from recent history
The long Syrian's wait for refuge at Lebanon's Masnaa check post
Turkish PM says Syria has become "terrorist state"
Rebels seek unity as Syria troops batter Aleppo
Israel Again Urges EU to Blacklist Hizbullah as 'Terrorist' Organization
March 14 Forms Consultative Body to Confront Syrian 'Conspiracy', Urges Suleiman to Intervene
March 14 letter tp President Slieman a step in escalation
Lebanon's PM, Mikati: Lebanon cannot tolerate further Syrian border aggression
Lebanese Army, UNIFIL hold live fire exercise
Failed Lebanese Cabinet talks spark teachers’ strike
Carob trees in bloom in southern Lebanon
Hariri-Jumblatt ice-breaker talks give boost to March 14 coalition
Lebanon chairs Arab League session on Syria
Jumblatt says commonalities with Hariri trump differences
Lebanon can 'drown' in Syria bloodshed, says PM urging unity  
Beirut: Extension of MEA exclusivity stirs debate
Lebanon's Maronite Bishops call for mass turnout during pope’s visit
Father Abou Kasm Says 'All Security Agencies on Alert' ahead of Pope Visit

Israeli Army Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz: Navy can operate anywhere in Middle East
Ahiya Raved /09.05.12/Ynetnews/IDF chief addresses Navy cadets at graduation ceremony in Haifa also attended by Minister Barak
IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz said Wednesday that "the Navy may be the smallest corps, but it's the branch that allows Israel to act with precision, quietly and safely in any point in the Middle East." Gantz made the statements at a Haifa Navy cadets course graduation ceremony. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who also attended the event, added that the "IDF stands strong, ready and willing to act in Israel's defense at any time and any geographical distance." According to Barak, Israel's army faces "complex challenges, near and afar, some of which are the most complex the IDF has ever known. The State of Israel is strong, confident and trusting of its defense force – the IDF."
Gantz noted that in light of the development of the Arab states' naval capabilities, "the Navy is becoming a decisive factor in our preparation for various scenarios – in routine, emergency and war."
Navy Commander Major-General Ram Rotenberg said that "the Navy has set a target to rule above and below water level. The Middle East is turbulent and we must be alert and ready."

Massed US, UK, French navies for drill simulating breach of blocked Hormuz
DEBKAfile Special Report September 5, 2012, /The third US aircraft carrier, USS Stennis, is moving into place off the Iranian Gulf coast to lead a 12-day naval exercise of 25 nations on Sept 16-27, that will include a large-scale minesweeping drill simulating the breaching of the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian efforts to block oil passage through the strategic waterway. President Barack Obama may see Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on the last day of the exercise. He hopes to present him with proof of US readiness for military action against Iran and demonstrate that an Israeli strike is superfluous.
The Stennis will join two other aircraft carriers, the USS Enterprise and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, and their strike groups, which are already on operational duty off the coast of Iran, ready for the drill which kicks off in the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 16.
US officials say the Stennis will replace the Enterprise, but according to debkafile’s military and Washington sources all three carriers will remain in place opposite Iran in the Gulf region in the coming months. British and French warships are completing their transfer to new stations off Iran for the big exercise in which the Saudi and United Arab Emirates navies will also take part.
In addition to practicing tactics for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, the exercise will simulate operations for destroying Iranian naval, air and missile bases in the Persian Gulf area.
This war game has three additional objectives, reported here by debkafile’s military sources:
1. To forestall an Israeli offensive against Iran, President Barack Obama wants to convince its leaders as well as Gulf rulers that the US-Western military option for disrupting Iran’s race to a nuclear bomb is deadly serious and ready to be exercised when the need arises – although determining “when the need arises” is the nub of the US-Israel dispute.
The exercise winds up Sept. 27, the day penciled in by the White House for Netanyahu to arrive for talks with President Obama and enable him to show his visitor that there is no need for Israel to act.
2. The exercise is intended to convey the same message to Iran, that the US military option is real and genuine and will be exercised unless it halts its nuclear weapons program. The awesome might the US-led coalition is capable of wielding against the Islamic Republic in a prospective war will be brought home to Iran’s military strategists, its Revolutionary Guards, Navy, and Air Force commanders, across their television screens, radar and spy satellites.3. The drill will assemble massive strength on the spot in anticipation of an Israeli decision after all to cut down the Iranian nuclear menace on its own..
The Netanyahu government found further grounds for going it alone in certain key amendments inimical to Israel introduced in the new Democratic Party’s platform on the Middle East. It is due for endorsement by the convention in Charlotte, Ca. Wednesday, ahead of Obama’s confirmation as the party’s presidential nominee. Those amendments are hardly designed to revive Israel's trust in the president's Middle East policies.
The 2008 platform confirmed a “commitment which requires us to ensure that Israel retains a qualitative edge in the Middle East for its national security and its right to self-defense.” The 2012 platform is amended to “[t]he administration has also worked to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region,” with no commitment to doing so in the future.
The Democratic platform has also dropped the Democrats’ affirmation of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, leaving its status open for a negotiated peace with the Palestinians.
Also removed is the statement that Palestinian “refugees” should be settled in a future Palestinian state, not in Israel.” The Obama White House has given itself a free hand to follow the Palestinian position on the refugee issue too like on Jerusalem (which he pointedly avoided visiting during his presidency.)
The new platform omits language characterizing Hamas as a terrorist group
The Israeli cabinet held a wide-ranging debate Tuesday, Sept. 4, on Iran after hearing briefings from the Military Intelligence, the Mossad, the Shin Bet and the Foreign Ministry’s Research Department on current Middle East crises, topped by Iran. No bulletins were issued from the closed, classified proceedings.
Some of the participants described the information put before them as “worrying though not frightening.” They implied that the IDF’s level of preparations and alert has not been reduced, sharply refuting the misinformation opponents of direct Israeli action against Iran have circulated widely and planted in media headlines.

Israel Again Urges EU to Blacklist Hizbullah as 'Terrorist' Organization
Naharnet /05 September 2012, /Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday urged the European Union to place Hizbullah on its list of "terrorist" organizations. Netanyahu made the request during talks with Italian Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi on the disputed nuclear program of Iran, Hizbullah’s leading regional ally. "I think that the international community must set a clear red line for Iran that it knows that it cannot go beyond in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, and I think that as hard as it is, the economic sanctions have to be intensified,” Netanyahu said.
"We appreciate the efforts that you have made and that others in Europe are making. There is one other effort that I think Europe could make to advance the cause of security and peace, and that is to declare Iran's proxy, Hizbullah, a terrorist organization," he added. "It is exactly that. It's the world's leading terror organization, and Europe could contribute much by declaring it for what it is."
In July, the European Union turned down a request by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to blacklist Hizbullah as a terror group after a deadly bombing in Bulgaria.
"There is no consensus for putting Hizbullah on the list of terrorist organizations," said Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency.
Kozakou-Marcoullis said Hizbullah was an organization comprising a party as well as an armed wing and was "active in Lebanese politics" -- with representatives in the government and in parliament.
Israel blames Iran and Hizbullah for the July 18 suicide attack at the Black Sea airport of Burgas in which five Israelis and their Bulgarian driver died.
It also says that Iran and Hizbullah plotted to carry out more than 20 attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets over the past two years.
Iran and Hizbullah have denied the accusations.SourceAgence France Presse.

March 14 Forms Consultative Body to Confront Syrian 'Conspiracy', Urges Suleiman to Intervene
Naharnet / 05 September 2012/The March 14 forces on Wednesday announced the creation of a permanent consultative body aimed at confronting the threats facing Lebanon, urging President Michel Suleiman and “all the free, loyal Lebanese” to take part in defending the country. “The conferees agreed that there are four main threats that require political, popular and parliamentary mobilization before it is too late,” said a statement issued after a broad meeting for the March 14 forces in Maarab. The March 14 forces warned of “the Syrian regime’s insistence on blowing up the security situation in Lebanon, especially in the North, and on targeting civil peace through bringing back the hit list and plotting bombings.”They also accused Damascus of being behind the latest kidnappings. The conferees slammed “the insistence of Iran’s allies in Lebanon on rejecting the concept of the state and its sovereignty, hijacking the decisions of war and peace and turning the country into an arena for regional and international conflicts.” The gatherers accused Hizbullah of “defying the principle of protecting Lebanon and sparing it (the repercussions of Syria’s crisis), as stipulated by the Baabda Declaration.”
The March 14 forces also warned of “the threat of bankruptcy facing the Lebanese economy and its various sectors due to the deliberate policies aimed at stripping Lebanon of the last assets of its steadfastness and immunity.”They cautioned that “these threats, in addition to the behavior of some of the government’s components, would accelerate the collapse of the state and its institutions and administrations.”“The consultative committee of the March 14 forces -- which will remain permanently in session -- raises the alarm and urges the president of the republic and all the free, loyal Lebanese to confront these threats,” said the statement. “The consultative committee stresses to the Lebanese that it will spare no effort – locally, regionally and internationally – to foil the conspiracy that is targeting Lebanon,” it added.

Israeli war drums muted on Iran
There are increasing signs that the threat of military action is receding, for now
Julian Borger /guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 4 September 2012
The odds against an Israeli military strike on Iran in the next few months appear to be lengthening, and perhaps the strongest evidence comes from none other than Binyamin Netanyahu, the man who has beaten the war drums loudest over the past few months. By calling for clear international (read US) 'red lines' containing Iran's nuclear programme, the Israeli prime minister has put the focus back on diplomacy, and given himself a ladder to climb down from his earlier rhetoric.
Meanwhile, Ehud Barak, the defence minister who had claimed that Iran was approaching a 'zone of immunity' beyond which it could not be stopped, is now reported to be against an Israeli attack (£) before the coming US presidential elections. Consequently, Mike Rogers, the head of the US House intelligence committee returned from a visit to Israel with the conviction that Israel will not launch an attack before the US vote in November. According to The Hill online, the Republican congressman said the Israeli threat had lifted for now, "because I think they believe that maybe after the election they could talk the United States into cooperating".
Such cooperation would be more likely in the event of a Mitt Romney victory in November, and with the poor state of the US economy, that seems increasingly possible. Netanyahu would look particularly foolish if he led Israel into a conflict on its own, just weeks before a close US ally came to power in Washington. The former CIA chief and current Romney adviser, Michael Hayden, was in Israel yesterday echoing the Obama administration message that military action can wait.
Writing in Haaretz, the columnist Amos Harel, notes that Israel Hayom (£) , owned by the American casino magnate and one of Romney's biggest backers, Sheldon Adelson, and which is widely viewed as a Netanyahu mouthpiece, has considerably toned down its coverage of Iran's nuclear programme in recent days. Harel's reading is that Netanyahu and Barak have overplayed their hand in poker terms, and have realised they have damaged Israel's relationship with the US for little or no strategic gain.
David Remnick reports in the current edition (£) of the New Yorker on the substantial lobby in the Israeli security and intelligence agencies who are opposed to unilateral Israeli action this year. The patron saint of the dissidents, the former Mossad chief, Meir Dagan, tells Remnick in a particularly striking passage:
After 33 years in the military and intelligence...[y]ou discover it is possible to get dragged into something and then it is hard to explain why it all happened. It's easy to go from being a victim to being an oppressor. You always have to pay attention to your internal moral compass and ask the right questions.
The background to all this is the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the Iranian programme which failed to provide an unambiguous springboard for urgent action. It showed relentless progress, with a rough doubling of the number of centrifuges installed at Fordow, a heavily-protected site dug into the side of a mountain, and the main focus of Israeli and western concern. But the new centrifuges have not been turned on. The number of machines actually producing 20%-enriched uranium (critical because it can relatively easily be turned into weapons grade material) at Fordow has remained constant.
And although IAEA reported that Iran has so far produced near 190 kg of 20%-enriched uranium, (theoretically enough for a warhead if it was further enriched) it has used 71 kg of that total for the production of reactor fuel plates, which are harder to turn into weapons-grade fuel.
As Shashank Joshi argues in an analysis for the Royal United Service Institute, it is questionable whether Barak's 'zone of immunity' idea made much sense in the first place. Fordow is under IAEA safeguards monitoring, so any attempt to "break out" and enrich to weapons grade would be flagged in advance. As there is no sign that Fordow is being fortified any further, the immunity of the programme does not seem to change. The 'zone of immunity' concept, Joshi says, should be 'understood primarily as a rhetorical device', and that rhetoric - this week at least - is sounding increasingly hollow.

Maronite Bishops call for mass turnout during pope’s visit
September 06, 2012 01:54 AM The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Maronite bishops called Wednesday for a massive turnout for Pope Benedict XVI’s visit to Lebanon next week.
“The Maronite bishops call on the sons and daughters [of the church] to turn out en masse to welcome his Holiness Pope Benedict XVI ... and be spiritually prepared to accept his guidance and work under his direction ... so that a real spring for Christians and for the region will be achieved,” the Council of Maronite Bishops said in a statement issued at their monthly meeting.
“Let this historic visit be the gateway to peace and the strengthening of the presence of Christians,” the bishops said, following the meeting in Bkirki presided over by Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai.
Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to flock to Harissa in Kesrouan to greet the pope when he arrives for a three-day visit next Friday.
Turnout is expected to be even higher during a mass the pope will celebrate at the Beirut Waterfront on the second day of his visit.
The Army announced it will strictly monitor a temporary invalidation of arms licenses during the pope’s visit as part of its measures to ensure security.
The decision – taken by the Defense Ministry – will temporarily suspend most arms licenses, except for those belonging to bodyguards attached with ministers, lawmakers and religious dignitaries, until the end of the pope’s visit. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television said a delegation from the group will be visiting Rai Thursday to discuss preparations for the visit.
The ongoing crisis in Syria had initially cast doubt on whether the pope would be able to visit the country, but Vatican officials have confirmed the pope’s visit will go ahead despite strife across the border.
A number of politicians from both major political coalitions have heralded the visit as a positive sign for the country. A security team from the Vatican visited Lebanon in July to inspect the pope’s prospective route through the country.

Lebanese Army, UNIFIL hold live fire exercise
September 06, 2012/The Daily Star /NAQOURA, South Lebanon: The United Nations peacekeeping force and Lebanese Armed Forces conducted a live fire exercise in southern Lebanon Wednesday near the Blue Line with Israel, a press release from the U.N. said. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon worked on the drills to increase coordination between the peacekeepers and the LAF and to generally increase cooperation between officers in both forces. The training took place a kilometer south of the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura and was the first to include rifle fire from armored vehicles.
UNIFIL Force Commander Major-General Paolo Serra heralded the exercises as important to work toward the recommendations made by the U.N. to change the peacekeepers’ operations.
“This exercise provides an opportunity to expand coordination and cooperation between UNIFIL and LAF in line with Strategic Review priorities and recommendations,” Serra said.
UNIFIL’s mandate was recently extended by the Security Council after a request from the Lebanese government. The extension allows the organization to operate under UNSC 1701 until August 2013.

France gives Syria "liberated zones" aid, mulls weapons: source
Reuters/September 5, 2012/PARIS (Reuters) - France has started helping rebel-held parts of Syria so these "liberated zones" can run themselves and is considering the possibility of supplying heavy artillery to protect them from government attacks, a diplomatic source said on Wednesday. Paris said last week it had identified areas in the north, south and east that had escaped President Bashar al-Assad's control, creating a chance for local communities to govern themselves without residents feeling they had to flee Syria.In zones where the regime has lost control, such as Tal Rifaat (40 km north of Aleppo), which has been free five months, local revolutionary councils have been set up to help the population and put in place an administration for these towns so as to avoid chaos like in Iraq when the regime pulls back," the source said. The source said France, which last week promised an extra 5 million euros ($6.25 million) to help Syrians, had started giving aid and money on Friday to five local authorities from three provinces - Deir al-Zor, Aleppo and Idlib. The areas are home to about 700,000 people. Civilians in rebel-held parts of Syria have suffered frequent deadly air strikes from Assad's forces and questions have been raised on how Paris proposes to protect civilians and deter them from fleeing to neighboring countries. The source admitted some areas still faced sporadic bombardments from Syrian forces, but there was little prospect of them falling back into government hands. He said people in these areas had asked for anti-aircraft weapons. "It's a subject that we are working on seriously, but which has serious and complicated implications. We aren't neglecting it," the source said.
No-fly zones patrolled by foreign aircraft could protect rebel-held areas, but there is little chance of securing a U.N. Security Council mandate for such action, given opposition from veto-wielding members Russia and China. European powers have also said they will not supply weapons to lightly-armed Syrian rebels, who have few answers to attacks by Assad's planes and helicopter gunships. However, the source implied there may be a shift in Paris' thinking. "It's not simple. There have been transfers of weapons which then ended up in different areas such as in the Sahel so all that means we need to work seriously, build a relationship of trust to see who is who so that then an eventual decision can be taken. It takes time," the source said.
Paris has increased its dialogue with opposition fighters over the past few weeks, although at this stage no French military advisers are helping them, the source said, adding that France was working to develop links between Syria's political opposition, defectors and rebel fighters. "It's not especially technical advice, but first and foremost to get them to speak to each other to agree on working together," the source said. "I think we can hope that in days and weeks to come we will see better co-ordination between these different structures."
(Reporting By John Irish; Editing by Pravin Char)Copyright © 2012, Reuters

Iraq's role in Syria war poses problems for US
By Bradley Klapperlara Jakes on September 05, 2012
WASHINGTON (AP) — Iraq's acquiescence in possibly allowing Iranian weapons deliveries to the Syrian regime demonstrates Washington's limited influence in postwar Iraq, its inability to halt Syria's 18-month conflict and its continued struggle against Tehran for supremacy in the region.
U.S. officials said Wednesday that Iraq had shut down the movement of Iranian aid to the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad earlier this year, but that suspected arms deliveries resumed in July. And three U.S. senators warned Baghdad that it risked damaging relations with the U.S. if it is allowing Iran to use Iraqi airspace to deliver weapons to Syria.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the information publicly.
Iraq's government said Iran had assured it that the flights to Syria were delivering only humanitarian aid, and challenged the U.S. to prove otherwise.
It was the latest example of Baghdad's warming relations with Tehran and weakening ties with Washington, after a decade in which the U.S. spent hundreds of billions of dollars and lost almost 4,500 lives after the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein's dictatorship and tried to stabilize the country. "The Iranians have been so explicit, so clear about their unyielding support for the murderous Assad regime," State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said. "All of this destructive assistance should stop, whether it's materiel, whether it's direct training and assistance to help stage manage the repression."
Ventrell declined to delve into the details of diplomatic discussions, but the U.S. official said the issue of Iranian weapons transfers to Assad's forces has been a bone of contention for several months, with American intelligence noting a significant increase in the number of flights over Iraq as the Syrian regime has gotten more desperate.
The resumed flights were first reported by The New York Times. White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said Iraq has taken steps in the past to meet its U.N. Security Council obligations to prevent Iran from exporting weapons. "It must continue to do so," he said in an email. On a visit to Baghdad, Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., was far blunter, calling into question the long-term partnership Iraq and the United States agreed to in 2008. "This kind of problem with these Iranian overflights can make it more difficult to proceed with the Strategic Framework Agreement in the manner that the prime minister and we would like to see happen," Lieberman told reporters in Baghdad. "So I hope this is cleared up quickly."
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., blamed the Obama administration for letting U.S. influence in the Middle East slip. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., also was on the trip.
"This region is about to explode," Graham said. Iraqi leaders, he added, are "probably not pushing back on Iran ... because they don't see how this ends. There's an amazing lack of American leadership, and it's beginning to show on all fronts." The issue of the overflights reflects a trifecta of worries for the United States. Iraq is a fragile democracy sandwiched by long-time Shiite allies Iran and Syria, a country in the midst of a brutal civil war that has now killed at least 23,000 people, according to activists. The Obama administration has been touting Syrian rebel advances in recent weeks, insisting that the tide of the war is turning against Assad. But Iranian support for Assad is one of the factors that could greatly prolong the conflict, especially as the U.S. and other Western powers insist on staying out of the conflict militarily and not providing weapons to the anti-Assad opposition. Responding to the U.S. accusations, Ali al-Moussawi, media adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, confirmed that Iranian planes are flying over Iraq to deliver goods to Syria. But he said Tehran assured al-Maliki the flights are carrying only food and humanitarian aid to help war victims.
Al-Moussawi said Vice President Joe Biden promised to send al-Maliki evidence that the flights are ferrying weapons. But proof never arrived, he said.
"The Iranian government has said that it respects our decisions," al-Moussawi told The Associated Press. "Until now, there is no evidence of any violation in this regard, and if anyone has any evidence they should bring it to us and we will take the needed measures."

The Conflict In Syria: worse, and no end in sight
The Economist/ Chicago Tribune/September 5, 2012
The suffering of ordinary Syrians is increasing, as the stalemate persists
IT IS growing harder to distinguish one bloody day in Syria from the next, unless the horror is so stark as to earn a special mark in the trajectory of an increasingly gruesome conflict. Daraya, a town on the south-western fringe of Damascus with a reputation for stubborn but peaceful opposition to the regime, was the most recent to suffer. Surrounded by loyalist troops from a neighbouring air base, the town endured five days of shelling before a full-scale invasion on August 25th. The pattern of the attack, complete with door-to-door raids and summary executions, has become familiar. But the number of deaths in Daraya exceeded any so far counted in a single incident. According to opposition sources, backed by videos, at least 380 bodies were buried, many in mass graves, wrapped in coarse blankets because white funeral shrouds have become too scarce.
August was certainly the bloodiest month so far: as many as 4,000 may have died, 3,000 of them civilians and rebels, the rest soldiers or pro-regime militiamen. The death toll now often tops 250 a day. The opposition reckons that 23,000-plus Syrians have been killed since protests began in March last year; the UN, more conservatively, puts the toll at 17,000.
Soon after the horror of Daraya, President Bashar Assad went on television to declare that the fight was going better than before but would need "more time". He is showing ever less mercy when it comes to clearing out rebels and punishing towns and districts that support them.
Outsiders have recently focused on the battle for the northern city of Aleppo, where Mr Assad's forces seem to have clawed back turf after a month of bitter street fighting. But government shelling and aerial bombing, countered by relentless guerrilla attacks, continue across large swathes of the country. Recent rebel successes include the downing of a helicopter over Damascus and the destruction of several more in an attack on an air base near Aleppo. The reported shooting down of a fighter jet on August 30th may herald a still more hopeful turning-point for the rebels.
The conflict may get even bloodier. Helicopters have dropped leaflets around Damascus warning rebels to surrender their weapons or face "inevitable death". Pro-government television, which lingered in its coverage of Daraya over unusually explicit footage of heaped and mangled bodies, issued equally sinister messages. "Do you know who did this to you?" a disingenuous reporter prodded a small girl, shivering and weeping next to her mother's corpse. Intended to show that this was the work of "terrorists", the footage instead caused fear and revulsion. Most Syrians have little doubt who the culprits are.
Growing sectarian tensions are another cause for foreboding. Animosity between Syria's Sunni Muslim majority and the mostly pro-government Alawite minority is already deep. Recent moves by the regime to arm "popular committees" in loyalist Christian and Druze areas threaten to increase such strife. "Until now the conflict has been between the majority Sunni fighters and the Alawites in formal and informal regime forces," says Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based lobby group. "The involvement of other minority civilian militias could be disastrous." On August 27th a car-bomb killed 12 mourners at a funeral for two regime supporters in Damascus's largely Druze and Christian suburb of Jaramana. Citing a similar, larger bomb at a Sunni funeral in May, the opposition suggests that the regime may itself have planted the latest bomb to stir up communal strife.
A regional humanitarian disaster is also brewing. The UN puts the number of internally displaced people at 1.2m and says it has registered over 200,000 refugees abroad. Some aid workers talk of 160,000 Syrians in Jordan alone, with a spike in the numbers of orphans and lone children arriving. Hundreds of families linger on the Syrian side of borders waiting to cross, despite conditions in Jordan's desert refugee camps that have prompted frequent riots. Turkey plans to build even more camps, raising its capacity from 80,000 to 120,000 refugees.
Air raids, a routine part of the regime's repertoire, are increasingly aimed at rebel-held territory between Aleppo and the Turkish border that had become a virtual safe haven, used both by fleeing refugees and resupplied rebels going the other way. The bombing has intensified opposition pleas to friends in the West and in the Gulf to impose a no-fly zone and send anti-aircraft missiles. The guns mounted by the rebels on pick-up trucks are little match for Mr Assad's Russian fighter jets.
Outsiders just wring their hands
Western diplomats remain loth to respond to such calls, not least because they are wary of the identity, ideology and tactics of some rebel groups. It does not help, either, that Syria's political opposition has failed to unite enough to create a coherent command structure or plan. The Syrian National Council (SNC), a foreign-based group that has struggled to become an umbrella for myriad opposition factions, is increasingly given the cold shoulder not only by frustrated Western governments but also by Mr Assad's Syrian foes. Bassma Kodmani, an SNC founder who has been one of the group's most articulate proponents, has resigned amid internal squabbles. The wiles of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is strongly represented in the SNC, have created particular tension.
Foreign governments insist that they will not intervene directly, at any rate for now. Iran, proudly hosting a conference of the Non-Aligned Movement on August 30th, has inveighed against foreign interference, castigating the West and its Arab allies in the Gulf. According to the Wall Street Journal Iran has also mooted citing a mutual-defence pact to provide Mr Assad with full-scale military backing. Russia, meanwhile, continues to block any moves at the UN to squeeze Mr Assad. Egypt, for the first time in many years, has emerged as a more independent diplomatic actor, suggesting a "contact group" that would include Iran (see "Egypt's foreign policy: Independent—or not?").
The United States says it will step in militarily only if the Syrian regime resorts to chemical weapons. In Europe, France has been the most outspoken: President François Hollande urged Syria's opposition to get its act together and form a government in exile, which would then, he said, deserve to be recognised. American diplomats said this was premature.
In any event, Syria's civil war is beginning to have the makings of a proxy conflict. The opposition has long claimed that Iran is aiding its sole regional ally with more than just words--for instance, with drones and snipers. The rebels, for their part, have yet to receive weapons from their friends in the Gulf or Turkey that are sophisticated or substantial enough to tilt the balance against the regime. British and American aid is still non-lethal: mainly communications, logistics and advice.
On August 29th Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, suggested that the creation of a proper safe haven for Syrians inside their own country be put to the UN Security Council forthwith. Mr Hollande said he was already working "in co-ordination with our closest partners" to set up a buffer zone for refugees, along the lines suggested by Mr Davutoglu. However, Mr Hollande's sudden burst of activism may have been designed in part to offset political pressure at home.
Establishing any kind of buffer zone or safe haven would require either the enforced acquiescence of the Assad regime or a willingness on the part of NATO or a coalition of Western-led countries with close Turkish co-operation to defend it from attack by Mr Assad's aircraft and tanks. A no-fly-zone would have to be declared. On August 29th the Syrian president told Addounia TV, a private but fiercely pro-government station in Damascus, that "talk of a buffer zone is not practical, even for those countries playing a hostile role". With no prospect of a UN Security Council mandate for a buffer zone and little Western appetite for another risky military venture in the region, Mr Assad is probably right--at least for the moment. So the bloodbath and the stalemate look set to persist.

Carob trees in bloom in southern Lebanon
September 05, 2012/By Mohammad Zaatari /The Daily Star
NABATIEH, Lebanon: The carob is now the second most common tree in Lebanon’s southern villages, after the olive, after a decade and a half of investment in its cultivation by successive municipalities.
As the carob has gained popularity, so too have myths about the special properties of the oil its leaves secrete. In south Lebanon the carob has proven an ideal tree for municipalities to grow: It’s an evergreen, bears fruit and doesn’t require too much attention.
Today’s scenery along the main road between Nabatieh Fawqa and the villages of Zawtar Sharqieh and Zawtar Gharbieh is very different from what it was more than 12 years ago, when its verges were open and bare. Both sides of the road are now lined with carob trees, transforming the entrance to the Zawtar villages into an attractive and verdant haven during both summer and winter months.
The transformation began in 2000, when the municipality of Nabatieh Fawqa planted around 300 seedlings of the decorative trees.
“There was a suggestion to plant evergreens that might also bear seasonal fruits,” the former mayor of Nabatieh Fawqa, Assad Ghandour, said. “The carob tree was chosen as it’s a beautiful tree to decorate roads and the entrances to villages.” After the seedlings were planted it took three years of care before they started to grow in earnest.
“Today, they have become large trees that provide shade, improve air quality and provide beautiful scenery as well as seasonal fruits,” Ghandour said, adding that five years ago the municipality began to sell farmers the rights to harvest the carob crop from the trees they had planted. Initially the municipality charged LL100,000 for the rights, but after a number of years as the trees grew and started to bear more fruit, they upped the rate to LL500,000.
Today the fee has risen in excess of LL2 million.
The municipality of Doueir is thought to have pioneered the idea of planting carob trees in the south.
Doueir planted some 150 dunams of agricultural land owned by the municipality between the villages of Doueir, Basfour and Shalbaal in the late 1990s.
However, according to the head of Doueir sports club, Hasib Qanso, the number carob trees was small in comparison with the 30,000 other kinds of trees that were also planted.
“The municipality planted just three dunams of carob trees – about 450 trees,” Qanso said. “Two hundred more were added last winter.”
The municipality of Zawtar Sharqieh received 240 carob seedlings this year from the Shqeef Municipal Union, planting them along a road known as the Litani River Road.
Prior to the year 2000 the municipality had, in coordination with the Environment Ministry, planted on land owned by the Lebanese government between Zawtar Sharqieh and Mayfadoun. A thousand dunams were planted with seedlings, including carob sprouts. The 2006 July war, however, took its toll on the original planting. “The Israeli aggression against Lebanon in 2006 did not spare these planted lands, but rather showered them with cluster bombs – it became impossible even for birds to enter,” the mayor of Zawtar Sharqieh, Mustafa Ismael, said, adding: “We couldn’t irrigate the trees so they dried up.” Ismael also said that the municipality, which was elected in 2010 “decided to reforest the lands and the sides of the roads with mainly carob trees.”
According to Ismael, “the planted seedlings need to be watered and maintained for three years before they can fend for themselves, and because of this we decided to plant gradually – especially as irrigation is expensive.”The southern municipalities also sell carob-harvesting rights to farmers from outside the region since special equipment, which is often unavailable in the villages, is needed to extract the molasses from the carob corp. “We expect to build presses for the carob crop in the coming few years in Nabatieh, especially as the cultivation of the tree has spread,” Qanso said
But it isn’t just the carob tree’s aesthetic value or its crop yield that keeps the trees in favor with southern Lebanese. According to Ghandour, carob trees provide good cover for rocket launchpads during wartime. The former mayor also cheekily suggests that the oil on the leaves could disrupt the radar of enemy warplanes, preventing bombs from reaching their targets.

March 14 letter a step in escalation
September 06, 2012/By Hasan Lakkis /The Daily Star
The letter sent from Fouad Siniora on behalf of the March 14 coalition to President Michel Sleiman Tuesday will form part of the movement’s escalatory steps against the Syrian regime, parliamentary sources said Wednesday.
Student protests have also been carried out by March 14 over the last week, calling for the removal of the Syrian ambassador to Lebanon.
The opposition’s letter included this demand, along with a request to cancel all agreements of cooperation between the two countries and deploy international forces along the Syrian-Lebanese border.
The arrest of former Information Minister Michel Samaha last month led to an undeniable turning point in how March 14 has been responding to the Syrian government, the sources said.
They added that the consequences of the letter have thus far been merely political, but the question still remains as to how March 8 will react to its contents.
As for the official reaction, it is unlikely that anything will surface in this regard, given the dispute inside Cabinet on the Syrian issue, the sources added.
The sources added that the parliamentary petition, which has been signed by 58 MPs, will have no real consequences unless it is endorsed by a majority of lawmakers.
However, such a situation remains unlikely, as the petition would also have to be supported by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, which is unlikely given his opposition to its content.
The sources cited rumors that March 14 also sent copies of the letter to the Arab League and the United Nations in the hope that these two institutions would support their stance, similar to when the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was formed. But they stressed that the situation now is different, because when the STL was formed, Parliament was suspended and the Cabinet at the time was branded unconstitutional by President Emile Lahoud.
The sources questioned how far March 14 would escalate its actions, as some of the coalition’s members have indicated there is a plan to take further measures on the Syria issue.
The sources added that any escalation would be limited and would not cross a certain threshold as after that point it would face opposing escalatory measures from March 8.
As for whether the demands in the letter can be achieved, the parliamentary sources said a diplomatic boycott was something which needed to be decided by the Cabinet and not through the respective wills of the president or the prime minister.
They also dismissed as infeasible calls to render null and void the existing agreements between Syria and Lebanon, saying this could not happen without acceptance from both sides, which would not be possible. Also, the cancelation of treaties needs approval by Parliament, which will not happen unless Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt commands his MPs to join the opposition, they added. Currently, they said, it does not seem likely he will make such a volte face.
The sources said that if they escalate actions further, March 14 would face the Syrian regime’s reactions, which would have political, economic and security ramifications.
With enough information on March 14 members to defame them, Damascus would not hold back in retaliating against coalition MPs, the sources said.
As for potential economic consequences, the Syrian government would start by closing off the border, which would harm the economy, hurt agriculture and have a serious impact on trade at the Beirut port, sources said.
The security reaction would include an increase in Syrian violations against Lebanese border villages, they said. But the sources added that such incidents would be limited, as the regime has no interest in further escalation, as that could prompt international resolutions to protect the border, which, in turn, would increase fragmentation and create domestic conflict in Lebanon.
On the issue of Prime Minister Najib Mikati asking the Lebanese ambassador to relay to Damascus objections to Syrian shelling of Lebanese border areas, the sources said the message was not as strong as a protest, but constituted a warning to the regime that should such violations continue, the ensuing security chaos would affect both countries negatively.

A reunion Michel Sleiman must exploit
September 06, 2012/By Michael Young The Daily Star
So Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri are back on speaking terms. That’s good news for the March 14 coalition, but it’s also good news for another leading politician, President Michel Sleiman, who in recent weeks has moved a significant way away from his previous reticence on Syria, as the uprising there rages on.
A settlement between Jumblatt and Hariri was always in the cards. Both must collaborate over the matter of parliamentary elections, scheduled for next year – to block a proportional law in Parliament and to form joint lists and exchange votes on election day. In addition, Jumblatt is eager to get back into the good graces of Saudi Arabia, which provides him with the power of patronage.
Sleiman may be unhappy that his proposal for a proportional election law will be shot down, but the president always knew that this would happen given the makeup of Parliament. As he looks ahead he has other priorities. Extending his mandate is very likely one of them, but also to maneuver more freely within the Christian community and land on his feet once the regime of President Bashar Assad falls.
The Syrians are known to be unhappy with Sleiman, who has taken a more forceful position on recent Syrian violations of Lebanese sovereignty than the Assad regime would like. That’s where the Jumblatt-March 14 rapprochement becomes most useful for the president. He now finds himself at a nexus point between the prime minister, Najib Mikati, Jumblatt, and March 14, better able to protect himself politically by navigating through their contending interests.
Already, Mikati is reportedly thinking ahead to election time next summer. If the situation in Syria is still where it is today, the prime minister will contemplate delaying elections. Such a move would be controversial, but the major political forces might ultimately agree to it: Saad Hariri, because he would not want to manage with a Sunni community more radicalized than ever in the midst of conflict; Jumblatt, because he is perennially in favor of averting sectarian confrontations; Mikati, because he does not want a security fiasco; and Hezbollah because it rules over a parliamentary majority and won’t lose anything through perpetuation of the status quo.
That Jumblatt might leave the government before then does not seem probable. The Druze leader gains by playing all sides against one another, and bringing down Mikati’s Cabinet would effectively mean sawing off the branch on which he sits. More interesting is what Jumblatt would do if the elections were postponed. He would then be in a position to side with Mikati and March 14 and perhaps demand the formation of a more neutral government in the run-up to the delayed elections, assuming he seeks such an outcome.
Given all the talk about deferring the elections, Sleiman must be shivering with anticipation. Here is a man of whom it was once said that his great ambition was to become a former president. Yet now he actually has the latitude to make a difference, and knows that any delay in parliamentary elections, for a year let’s say, would mean that his own term, which ends in May 2014, is extended.
The president’s Maronite rivals are in abeyance. Michel Aoun is backing the wrong side in Syria, which can only benefit Sleiman. The president gains from keeping friendly channels open to the Sunni community, whose role in Syria and Lebanon will be enhanced in the coming years. As for Samir Geagea, he has little choice but to support Sleiman, to avoid handing an advantage to Aoun or even in some respects to Patriarch Beshara Rai, who has vacillated on Syria, but also because the president’s inclinations frequently echo his own.
How can Sleiman exploit his newfound respectability? He has some influence over the Army, but that house of many mansions is open to all sides, not least to its commander, Jean Kahwagi, who dreams of succeeding Sleiman in Baabda. And in the dysfunctional Cabinet, Sleiman will continue to hit up against Aoun, who considers himself the paramount Christian representative, and against Syria’s partners, who intrinsically mistrust any independent Maronite president.
That leaves two things for Sleiman to do. The first is to impose a measure of moral authority over his coreligionists, by defining a more consensual path for Lebanon’s Christians in light of the major regional transformations coming up. This must necessarily involve realigning the community with regard to both Sunnis and Shiites, so that Christians reconcile both, and with both, as with the state itself, permitting them to better impose their preferences in the future.
A second aim of Sleiman must be to reassert the institutional power of the presidency. During the last two decades, the president has become a factotum, the weakest link in the ruling triumvirate of power. This has destabilized the political system and undermined Maronite confidence. Hariri and Jumblatt have traditionally opposed a strong presidency, but they now need Sleiman as much as he needs them.
The problem is that this president is not the most profound or inspiring of thinkers. If his focus in on staying in office beyond 2014, then expect no miracles from him. But two years, and perhaps more, is plenty for Sleiman to help alter the Christian mindset and revive the vitality of the presidency if he opts to do so. The Jumblatt-Hariri reunion opens up a valuable path in those directions.
Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Victimization of Egypt's Christians Worse After Revolution
By Raymond Ibrahim • Sep 4, 2012/Cross-posted from Jihad Watch
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/2012/09/victimization-of-egypt-christians-worse-after. While some are aware that the Christians of war-torn Syria and Iraq are regularly abducted and held for large ransoms by Western-sponsored "freedom fighters," it is largely unknown in the West that the Christians of Egypt—which is not war-torn and has a stable government—are also prey to the same treatment. According to Al Moheet, a new human rights report indicates that there are dozens of cases of Muslim gangs abducting Christian Copts and holding them for ransom, in Nag Hammadi alone.  Earlier reports document the same travesties against Egypt's Christians, and in different regions, including villages near Alexandria, Minia, Asyut, and Sohag. The human rights report adds that those who are sent to collect ransom monies from the Christians families are often known and connected to some of the larger families of Nag Hammadi, and some are even known to the police, who, as usual, look the other way.Meanwhile, a cursory search of the Internet in Arabic exposes any number of separate case reports of Copts being abducted and held for ransom. For instance, here is a Masr11 report from last month about how armed assailants abducted a young Christian doctor, a pediatrician, as he was going to his clinic, and demanded 100,000 Egyptian pounds from his family for his release. The report adds, "Gangs of armed kidnappers have become more active since the January 25 revolution."

Muslim Clerics: Kill All Who Insult Islam
by Raymond Ibrahim
Originally published by the Gatestone Institute
September 4, 2012
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/12229/muslim-clerics-kill-all-who-insult-islam
Recently an Egyptian Muslim posted a YouTube videotape of himself cursing Islam, its holy book, the Koran, tearing the latter to pieces and throwing it in the garbage. Excerpts of what he said follow:
The three sheikhs (from left, Abdullah, Mohsin, and Sha'ban) call for the death of all who insult Islam on live TV.
There it is, Allah's book, this is the basic catastrophe. I don't know what day it is of this disgusting month of Ramadan! You are making the tearing of the Quran such a big and dangerous thing... it is instinctive to tear this book, those sons of [profanity] think they can threaten me and challenge me to tear the Quran, but I want to prove to them that they are nothing and what is the big deal in tearing this book!! There it is [he starts tearing the Quran] in the trash. Are you feeling better now! You cannot touch a hair on my head! We keep blaming Hamas and Gaza, but it is not them, it is this son of [profanity] book that I am stepping on right now. That book is the source of all evil and the real catastrophe. There is nothing new here, it is not Omar Abdel Rahman, Abbud or all the others; it is this garbage that is causing us to run in a demonic never-ending circle that will never end.
While this latest Koran desecration is a reminder that there are everyday Egyptians who are sick of the Talibanization of Egypt, a recent talk show on Al Hafiz channel concerning this incident is an indicator of what is in store for them.
After the video of the man tearing the Koran was played, one of three guests, a bearded and white-robed Dr. Mahmoud Sha'ban, visibly shaken by what he had just seen, said:
Someone like him must receive the punishment he deserves—and it is death. He is an apostate… It is clear from what he says that he is a Muslim, and must be killed as an apostate. As for that act itself, it is an infidel act, and he deserves to be struck by the sword in a public place—and as soon as possible; as soon as possible; as soon as possible. It must be announced and photographed and disseminated among the people, so that all the people may know that we respect our Koran and its words from Allah, and whoever insults it, receives his punishment from Allah. If people like him are left alone, they will only get bolder and bolder.
The next guest, Sheikh Abdul Mohsin, said: "I support the words of Sheikh Mahmoud [who just spoke], that this man must be killed fast, that he may be an example to others, so that all learn that we have reached a new phase in respecting Islam and the holy sanctity of the Koran and Sunna. This man has become an apostate and must suffer the penalty in front of the people."
The third and final guest, Dr. Abdullah, was somewhat critical of the first two Islamic scholars—not because they called for the man's death, but because, by focusing on the fact that the man had apostatized, it seemed as if they were exonerating non-Muslims: "The issue of killing him is not limited to his being a Muslim and then apostatizing. No, it is known to us from the Sharia that whoever insults the Prophet or tears the Koran, his judgment is death—whether he's a Muslim or non-Muslim, or non-Muslim."
Later, a listener called in saying, "Just so you know, if I ever meet one of these people, their life is void—they're simply dead." The talk show host, who agreed that the man must be slain, responded with some moderate talk about letting the state handle such people, to which the first sheikh, Dr. Mahmoud Sha'ban, erupting in rage:
"Man, we're talking about the religion of Allah! The religion! The religion!! The woman who insulted the Prophet, he voided her life! There were ten people at the conquest of Mecca whose lives the Prophet also voided!"
When the host tried to get a word in, the cleric exclaimed: "I am the sheikh, not you. I am the sheikh, not you! I am the sheikh! Hear me to the end, before I get up and leave!!"
Dr. Abdullah tried to mediate by clarifying to the host: "Do you know what the word 'void' [hadr] means [in Islamic jurisprudence]? It means it is the right for anyone who meets them [those who insult Islam] to kill them."
Simply put, the host was wrong to think that those who insult Islam should only be killed by the state. Any good Muslim can—and should—kill them, wherever he finds them. Of course, with a Muslim Brotherhood president in office, whether those who offend Islam are killed by the state or by Islamic vigilantes becomes somewhat semantic.
Already under President Morsi's first two months, Islamists have become more emboldened—whether by pressuring women to wear the hijab, killing a Muslim youth for publicly holding hands with his fiancée, or disseminating flyers that call for the total genocide of Egypt's Christian Copts—flyers that even openly included names and mosque contact points for those Muslims who wish to collect their rewards for killing Christians.

Libyan Islamists and the security forces: Iraq 2.0?
by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
The Jerusalem Post
September 5, 2012
http://www.meforum.org/3331/libya-islamists-security-forces
The Libyan elections in July that saw a poor performance on the part of Islamist parties were justifiably hailed by many commentators, who saw Libya as a notable exception to the theory of a universal regional ascendancy for the Islamists. I myself had wrongly predicted that the Islamists would gain the lion's share of the votes.
However, the election results should not lead to complacency.
As Reuters reports, armed Islamists have demolished Sufi shrines in Tripoli and Ziltan, with Libya's Interior Minister Fawzi Abdel A'al affirming that he would not want the security forces to engage in an armed confrontation with these religious radicals.
What's more, the destruction of the shrine in Tripoli took place by day in the open, and many of the perpetrators are reportedly members of the very same security forces.
In my article on the outcome of the Libyan elections - "Rethinking Libya" (July 15, 2012) – I suggested that looking at developments in Iraq post-2003 serves in many ways as a useful guide to understanding how things might pan out in Libya.
In this particular case, analogy with Iraq is helpful, for it is clear that the post-Gaddafi Libyan security forces are being built up in much the same way as the new Iraqi security apparatus was created and developed following the fall of Saddam's regime.
That is, facing a situation of chaos caused by competing militias, the post-Gaddafi Libyan government has understandably pursued a policy of trying to build up the new security forces as quickly as possible – an approach that was also adopted by the United States in Iraq.
However, the major problem is that the focus is on quantity, not quality, and so political factions and other ideologues can take advantage of the situation, flooding the ranks of the new security forces with their own partisans.
In Iraq, the result has been the large presence of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters and Shi'a Islamist militiamen.
The former means that Baghdad cannot risk an armed clash with the Kurds, as illustrated by a recent stand-off between the two sides at the disputed Rabia border-crossing town, located near the Syrian border. The incident resulted in no actual armed conflict.
As for the Shi'a Islamists, their presence in the security forces means that they can enforce their rules in many areas with impunity, something that was apparent in the reports earlier this year of targeted killings of dozens of "emos." Even if the Iraqi government wanted to do something about this string of killings, it would likely refrain from action, lest elements of the security forces should effectively be at war with each other.
And so it is with Libya. Filling the ranks of the new security forces with their own partisans serves as a useful alternative to elections for Islamists to wield influence and authority in the country. In this context, the remarks of the General National Congress speaker Muhammad Magarief who – according to a McClatchy report – first alleged that those responsible for the acts of desecration of Sufi shrines "are unfortunately aligned with some in the Supreme Security Committee and ex-revolutionaries."
The same report also notes admissions by the General National Congress that Gaddafi loyalists have infiltrated the security forces. This development provides an interesting contrast with the experience in Iraq where – in light of the de-Ba'athification process – loyalists to the prior regime have not been able to join the Iraqi security forces. Instead, they have simply been waging an active insurgency campaign against the government, most recently under the banner of the militant Naqshibandi movement that works with al-Qaida in Iraq.
At the same time, it should not be concluded that the Gaddafi loyalists are refraining from violence against the new order. Already they have been suspected of committing a series of car bomb attacks in Tripoli, and it is hardly implausible that they are behind such operations.
Indeed, entry into the security forces could be viewed as a mere stepping-stone to acquire the necessary weaponry and funding to begin an active insurgency campaign.
The factionalization of the security forces is not only allowing Islamist militants to get their way with impunity, but is also making the task of reining in militias that remain independent of the central government all the more difficult. Low-level violence – with perhaps dozens of casualties on a monthly basis – looks set to dominate the Libyan scene for quite some time. On the other hand, this problem is unlikely to impede economic growth. As in Iraq, foreign investment will be deterred by violence, but the intact oil infrastructure that is unlikely to be dismantled will ensure that there is no shortage of money.
*Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University.