LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 26/12

Bible Quotation for today/Grain, Weeds and Harvest
Matthew 13/24-30: "He put before them another parable: ‘The kingdom of heaven may be compared to someone who sowed good seed in his field; but while everybody was asleep, an enemy came and sowed weeds among the wheat, and then went away. So when the plants came up and bore grain, then the weeds appeared as well. And the slaves of the householder came and said to him, "Master, did you not sow good seed in your field? Where, then, did these weeds come from?"He answered, "An enemy has done this." The slaves said to him, "Then do you want us to go and gather them?"But he replied, "No; for in gathering the weeds you would uproot the wheat along with them. Let both of them grow together until the harvest; and at harvest time I will tell the reapers, Collect the weeds first and bind them in bundles to be burned, but gather the wheat into my barn."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Who killed Wissam al-Hassan/By: Tony Badran/Now Lebanon/October 25/12
This is why Lebanon will not stabilize/By Osman Mirghani/Asharq Alawsat/October 25/12
The defects of the opposition in the Gulf/By Adel Al Toraifi/Asharq Alawsat/October 25/12
Why Lebanon isn't headed for civil war/By Nicholas Blanford/The Christian Science Monitor/October 25/12

The bombed Sudanese factory produced Iranian Shehab missiles
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 24, 2012/The Yarmouk Complex of military plants near Khartoum, whicht was bombed five minutes after midnight Wednesday, Oct. 24, by four fighter-bombers, recently went into manufacturing Iranian ballistic surface-to-surface Shehab missiles under license from Tehran, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources disclose. Western intelligence sources have not revealed what types of Shehab were being turned out in Sudan but they believe the Yarmouk’s output was intended to serve as Tehran’s strategic reserve stock in case Iran’s ballistic arsenal was hit by Israeli bombers. The Israeli Air Force has a long record of pre-emptive attacks for destroying an enemy’s long-range missiles in the early stages of a conflict. In June 2006, for instance, the IAF destroyed 90 percent of Hizballah’s long-range missiles in the first hours of the Lebanon war. Videos of the explosions caused in the air raid over Sudan showed large quantities of phosphorus flares in the sky suggesting that a large stockpile was demolished along with the manufacturing equipment. Western sources did not divulge information about the comings and goings of Iranian missile specialists or whether the Bashir government had given Tehran permission to stage attacks from Sudan against Middle East targets, in return for the allotment of a number of missiles to the Sudanese army. All they would say is that the complex's structures had been completely leveled by the aerial bombardment and subsequent fire. Sudan accused Israel of the attack and stated it reserved the right to respond at a time and circumstances of its choosing. Israeli officials declined to comment in answer to questions.If Indeed Israel was responsible for the bombing raid, it is possible to postulate the following objectives:
1. Its air force flew 1,800-1,900 kilometers to reach the Sudanese arms factory, a distance longer than the 1,600 kilometers to the Iranian underground enrichment site of Fordo. This operation may have been intended to show Tehran that distance presents no obstacles to an Israeli strike on its nuclear program.
2. The IAF has an efficient in-flight refueling capability.
3. The raid would have degraded Iran’s ability to retaliate for a potential Israel or US attack.
If it was conducted by Israel, it would add a third item to the list of backdoor assaults in which Iran and Israel appear to be engaged in the past three months.
On August 17, the power lines to Fordo were sabotaged, interrupting the work of enrichment taking place there and causing some of the advanced centrifuges to catch fire. On Oct. 6, an Iranian stealth drone was launched from Lebanon into Israeli air space and photographed its most sensitive military sites as well as the Dimona nuclear reactor before Israel brought it down.

Judiciary to interview journalists close to Hasan
October 25, 2012/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The judiciary is likely to request witness statements from four journalists who had close relations with slain Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, security sources told The Daily Star Wednesday.
The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the four journalists work in well-known Lebanese media outlets and maintained “good professional relationships” with the top intelligence official, who was killed in a car bomb last week. The sources also said the probe is looking into why Hasan returned to Beirut the day before his assassination, despite the fact that he told two senior police officials that he would spend the Eid al-Adha holiday with his family in Paris. Eid al-Adha is this Friday. The police officials were attending a conference in Germany with Hasan when he told them of his plans.
Detectives are also examining telecoms data and attempting to identify the explosives used by type and the country of origin. According to the sources, investigators strongly believe the explosives came from Europe. Prosecutor General Hatem Madi neither confirmed nor denied Monday a report published by Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper Wednesday that a female Lebanese journalist, believed to be one of the four, had an appointment to meet Hasan at his Ashrafieh house several hours before he was killed.
The newspaper said that the judiciary would ask investigators to take a statement from the journalist to determine whether she told anyone about her appointment or the location of Hasan’s safe house. It added that the courts would inquire how and when she contacted Hasan.
Madi said there were no new developments in the investigation that he was at liberty to discuss.“So far there have been no arrests or suspects and when someone is arrested, we will make it public,” Madi told The Daily Star after chairing a meeting of the security bodies involved in the probe. “The investigation is ongoing ... through gathering evidence, analyzing information, studying the reports of forensic teams and explosives experts along with analyzing telecommunications and photos taken by cameras at the site before and after the explosion.”
The Internal Security Forces said that most media reports about the investigation have been inaccurate, urging the media not to report on the probe.
“The General Directorate of the Internal Security Forces assures people that it is conducting the required investigation with high professionalism and under the supervision of relevant judiciary,” a statement read. Because of what it called the inaccuracy of reporting on the subject, the statement added that “the general directorate urges all media outlets to exercise caution [in reporting] and not to tackle investigation ... because this might harm the course of investigation and confuse people.”
The March 14 coalition has accused Syrian President Bashar Assad of standing behind the assassination of Hasan, who maintained close ties former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the leader of the opposition. The alliance has called for Hasan’s case to be referred to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Speaking to The Daily Star, STL spokesperson Marten Youssef said that for the case to be referred to the court, the attack would have to be connected to the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. “In order for a case after Dec. 12, 2005, to be added to the STL jurisdiction there are a number of rigorous steps that have to be taken. The STL prosecutor must first consider an attack to be connected to the Feb. 14, 2005, [bombing] and shall then ask the STL president and registrar to inform the U.N. secretary-general of that connection,” Youssef said.
“It would then be up to the Lebanese government and the Security Council whether or not to grant the tribunal jurisdiction,” he added. Hasan was a member of Rafik Hariri’s security team before becoming the head of the ISF Information Branch.
Hezbollah opposes referring the case to the STL. The government has passed the case to the Justice Council, which is tasked with dealing with threats to national security.
Calling the assassination a “tragedy and a reminder of the importance of our work,” Youssef said the STL is determined to carry on with its mandate, expecting the Lebanese government to continue its cooperation with the court. For his part, Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel-Karim Ali dismissed accusations that his country was involved in Hasan’s killing.
“Syria is busy with its own local crisis. It had nothing to do with the assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan,” the ambassador said. Ali said his country condemns the attack, and denounces all political assassinations in Lebanon. “It is in no one’s benefit to address a political accusation against Syria. This will damage brotherly ties between the two countries,” he said.

STL rejects challenges against its legality
October 25, 2012/By Willow Osgood/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Appeals Chamber of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon rejected Wednesday defense motions challenging the court’s legality and jurisdiction.
The five judges of the chamber unanimously dismissed the motions filed by defense attorneys representing the members of Hezbollah indicted in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, bringing the court one step closer to the trial tentatively set to begin on March 25. In its ruling, the Appeals Chamber confirmed that the court was solely established by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757 under Chapter VII, and that the council has wide discretion to determine what constitutes a threat to peace and security.
“We affirm the Trial Chamber’s decision that this tribunal was legally established by Security Council Resolution 1757 (2007),” the chamber said.
“The tribunal cannot judicially review the Security Council’s actions. “This finding is also supported by the difficulty of establishing any meaningful standard of such review in the absence of legal criteria to that effect.” In a public hearing earlier this month, the defense attorneys argued that the attack that killed Hariri did not constitute a threat to international peace and that the STL has the authority to review the legality of its own establishment. They also maintained that Resolution 1757 was a violation of Lebanese sovereignty, arguing that it forced on Lebanon an agreement to establish the court that had not been signed by the president or ratified by Parliament. But the Appeals Chamber argued that the approach had been used in other cases, including Resolution 687 on the conflict between Iraq and Kuwait when “the Security Council brought into force the provisions of a non-binding minute, agreed to by the parties, but not ratified by Iraq.”
Although the motions were unanimously rejected, STL President David Baragwanath, a member of the Appeals Chamber, wrote a dissenting opinion on the ruling that the court could not review Security Council resolutions. Baragwanath argued that the tribunal must exercise a limited authority to review certain aspects of Security Council resolutions.
“The argument that the tribunal cannot pretend to possess authority to supervise any of the organs of the United Nations overlooks the fact that the Security Council chose to create an independent international tribunal, which may be expected to apply the rule of law to all,” Baragwanath wrote. “The Security Council would not expect its own work to be immune from the law.”
He found, however, that the defense had failed to establish that the Security Council acted beyond its authority and joined the other judges in dismissing the appeals.

Iran, Syria gave Hezbollah order to kill Hasan: Geagea
October 25, 2012/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea launched a vehement attack on the country’s security authorities, accusing them of following Syrian-Iranian schemes being implemented by Hezbollah. “Lebanese security services and security officials are going along with Syrian-Iranian plots that are being implemented by Hezbollah,” Geagea said in remarks published Thursday by the Saudi newspaper Al-Watan. Geagea said Lebanon’s top intelligence chief Brig. Gen.Wissam al-Hasan, who was assassinated by a car bombing in Beirut last week, had dealt a blow to the ambitions of those who sought to drag Lebanon into the conflict in neighboring Syria. “The pro-Assad regime, alongside Iran, is clearly and directly involved in the plot to liquidate Brig. Gen. Hasan, [a scheme] being carried out by Hezbollah,” Geagea said. Hasan was the head of the Internal Security Forces Information Branch and uncovered evidence of a plot involving former Lebanese minister Michel Samaha and Syrian National Security Bureau head Ali Mamlouk to transfer explosives from Syria to Lebanon and carry out a series of assassinations in the country. The March 14 coalition, to which Geagea belongs, has accused Syrian President Bashar Assad of standing behind Hasan’s assassination. Hasan was close to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the leader of the opposition.March 14 has called for Hasan’s case to be referred to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. In the interview, Geagea said Lebanon would have seen more destruction than the damage caused by last week’s bombing had the plot involving Samaha not been uncovered by Hasan.

FBI team, Lebanon prosecutor meet over Hasan probe
October 25, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: U.S. investigation team met with Prosecutor General Hatem Madi Thursday over the assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, the National News Agency reported. The meeting was held based on a request by the Lebanese Cabinet to Madi to provide the logistic and technical assistance to the Federal Bureau of Investigation team assisting in the probe into Hasan’s killing, the NNA said. The U.S. team arrived in Beirut earlier Thursday and began gathering evidence at the scene of a bombing that killed the country's police intelligence chief.
"The Federal Bureau of Investigation team is at the scene of the crime and has begun collecting evidence," Interior Minister Marwan Charbel told AFP."The team was sent to Lebanon at the request of the Lebanese government," he added. The United States announced on Monday it would send an FBI team to help Lebanon probe the rush-hour Beirut car bomb which killed police intelligence chief Brig. Gen Wissam al-Hasan and two others. Washington has condemned the blast as a terrorist strike but said it would wait for the results of the investigation before determining any further response. The opposition has widely blamed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for Friday's attack, as it did in 2005 when former premier Rafik Hariri was killed in a huge Beirut blast. - With AFP.

Hezbollah rejects Geagea's ‘false accusations’
October 25, 2012/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Hezbollah Thursday rejected accusations made by Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea of the party’s involvement in the assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, who was killed in car bomb in Beirut’s Ashrafieh district last week. “Geagea’s comments are all fabrications and false accusations aimed at provoking more strife and tension in the country,” a statement from Hezbollah’s media office said. Hezbollah was replying to remarks made by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in which he accused the party of involvement in the bombing that killed Hasan. “Any wise and patriotic [individual] would reject such comments that can only be welcomed by those who are willing to do a service to the Israeli enemy and its criminal plans,” the statement said.
In an interview with the Saudi Al-Watan daily published Thursday, the LF Leader launched a vehement attack against Hezbollah, accusing the party of carrying out a Syrian-Iranian scheme to assassinate Hasan. “The pro-Assad regime, alongside Iran, is clearly and directly involved in the plot to liquidate Brig. Gen. Hasan, [a scheme] being carried out by Hezbollah,” Geagea said.

Siniora, Hariri hold meeting in Jeddah
October 25, 2012/By Jana El Hassan/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri met with Future bloc leader Fouad Siniora during the latter’s visit to Jeddah, a parliamentary source told The Daily Star. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Hariri and Siniora met to discuss the developments since the assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan. “Some issues cannot be resolved over the phone ... that is why the two leaders had to meet in person and consult on how to address the crisis triggered by Hasan’s killing,” the source said. The source also said Siniora held several meetings during the week with senior March 14 figures to coordinate a “unified stance” for the coalition, notably Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel and Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea. According to the source, Hariri gave his support to the stances taken by Siniora, backing calls for Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government to resign. “The Future Movement believes there is a security vacuum in light of the presence of the current Cabinet, and that is the message Siniora is trying to convey to the international and Arab community,” the source said.
Siniora and Future MP Nouhad al-Mashnouq, as well as Future Movement officials Nader Hariri, Ghattas Khoury and Mohammad Chatah headed to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Wednesday evening.
“The aim of the Jeddah visit is to keep up a series of meeting Siniora has been holding with foreign and Arab ambassadors to explain his group’s stance over the Cabinet’s resignation,” the source said.
Siniora also met with United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly before taking off to Jeddah.
Plumbly did not make any statements following the meeting.
However, the source said that the outcome of Siniora’s meetings has been “positive” so far. Speaking from Jeddah Thursday, Siniora said it was not inevitable that a political vacuum result from the resignation of the government. The former minister argued that if the government resigns, it will become a caretaker Cabinet, and thus a political vacuum would be avoided.
“What is being said about not toppling the government before finding an alternative is wrong,” Siniora said following a meeting with Arab and Western envoys in Jeddah.
He also said his group is ready to cooperate with President Michel Sleiman to hold consultations in order to form a new Cabinet, which would alleviate the tension in the country, heightened following last week’s assassination of Hasan. Following his funeral Friday the opposition took to the streets to protest over the slain general’s killing and ask for the resignation of Mikati’s Cabinet.
The opposition also decided to boycott the national dialogue and any parliamentary activity in which the government takes part, until Mikati’s Cabinet resigns.

US coordinates weapon deliveries to Syria rebels: Russia
October 25, 2012/Daily Star/MOSCOW: Russia on Thursday accused Washington of "coordinating" deliveries of arms to Syrian rebels, despite assurances by the State Department that the United States provides no lethal assistance. "Washington is aware of the deliveries of various weapons to illegal armed groups active in Syria. Moreover, judging by the declarations of US officials published in US media, the US coordinates and provides logistical assistance in such deliveries," the foreign ministry said in a statement. Russia's top general Nikolai Makarov on Wednesday said rebels fighting against Bashar al-Assad's army in Syria are using US-made Stingers, a type of shoulder-launched missile systems also known as MANPADs. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland promptly denied that the US is delivering any such, or any other, weapons to the rebels. "We are providing no lethal assistance to the Syrians," she said, adding that the only MANPADs sighted by the US in Syria were "Soviet vintage".
In its statement, the Russian foreign ministry acknowledged that "the US does not deliver MANPADs to the rebels" directly, and did not specify how the alleged logistical assistance is carried out.
Makarov said Russia did not yet know who was bringing the Stingers into Syria, adding it was possible that these and other weapons could have been delivered from abroad on several means of transport, including passenger planes. "For this, all kinds of transport could be activated, including civil aviation. This is a serious matter," he said.
Russia is under sustained pressure from the West, Turkey and Assad's foes in the Arab world to cut its military cooperation with the Syrian regime.
President Vladimir Putin last week defended Russia's right to trade weapons with whoever it wanted, so long as sales did not break any sanctions from the UN Security Council where Moscow has a permanent, veto-wielding seat. "In all other cases, no one can on any pretext dictate to Russia or any other state with whom and how it should trade," Putin said. Moscow has refused to take sides against Assad, condemning the West and Turkey for making clear their support for the rebels battling his regime.

President Michel Sleiman seeks dialogue on new Cabinet
October 25, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman is pushing for an early session of National Dialogue to discuss the possibility of forming a new government, officials said Wednesday.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that a power vacuum in Lebanon could be exploited by Syria. Sleiman’s bid and Clinton’s warning came amid renewed calls by the opposition March 14 coalition for the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s March 8-dominated government over the assassination of police intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan.
“In his meetings with National Dialogue members, the president is proposing bringing forward the dialogue date in order to discuss the current political crisis, including the possibility of forming a new government if the parties agreed,” a source at Baabda Palace told The Daily Star.
Lebanon has been thrown into a major political crisis since March 14 leaders demanded the government’s resignation following Hasan’s killing in a car bomb in Beirut last Friday.
The March 14 parties have blamed Syrian President Bashar Assad and the Mikati government for the killing. They have rejected attending a new round of National Dialogue scheduled on Nov. 29 before the government resigns.
Sleiman has so far met with former President Amin Gemayel, head of the Kataeb Party, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, head of the parliamentary Future bloc, and MP Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah’s Loyalty to the Resistance bloc in Parliament, to explore a solution for the Cabinet impasse.
A Future movement delegation headed by Siniora also left Beirut to Jeddah late Wednesday to hold talks with opposition leader former Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The delegation included Nader Hariri, Mohammad Shatah and Ghattas Khoury.
Meanwhile, Clinton warned that Syria would exploit any power vacuum in Lebanon, worsening tensions in the Middle East after Hasan’s assassination.
“We don’t want to see a vacuum of legitimate political authority that could then be taken advantage of by the Syrians or by others that could create even greater instability and violence,” Clinton told a news conference in Washington.
“We call on all parties in Lebanon to support the process that President Sleiman is leading to choose a responsible effective, government that can address the threats that [Lebanon] faces and hold accountable those responsible for last week’s bombing,” she said.
Clinton said the United States would not prejudge the outcome of Sleiman’s call for all-party talks on forming a new government: “This must be a Lebanese process. But the Lebanese people deserve so much better. They deserve to live in peace and they deserve to have a government that reflects their aspirations, not acts as proxies and agents for outside forces.”
Clinton’s remarks came a day after the U.S. State Department called for the formation of a new government in Lebanon that will counter the threat posed by the civil war in Syria, like the car bombing that killed Hasan, his driver and a woman in the Beirut district of Ashrafieh. Hasan, 47, the head of the police’s Information Branch, opposed Assad.
The bombing, the first in four years, has raised fears about sectarian strife in Lebanon, which is sharply divided between supporters and opponents of Assad.
Beirut and the northern city of Tripoli, the scene of sectarian clashes between pro- and anti-Assad gunmen following Hasan’s assassination, have been calm since Tuesday, a day after the Lebanese Army deployed to restore order, chasing gunmen off the streets. At least 10 people have been killed in the Tripoli clashes, while a Palestinian man was killed by soldiers who returned fire following an attack on their patrol in Beirut.
Referring to Sleiman’s consultations with National Dialogue members, Environment Minister Nazem Khoury said the president was seeking to bring forward the dialogue date and “sounding out the parties on their views on the government situation.”
Khoury, who is close to Sleiman, warned of the country sinking into a power vacuum if the government resigned in the absence of an agreement by the rival factions on a new Cabinet. He told The Daily Star that the March 14 boycott of National Dialogue would lead to suspending the intra-Lebanese talks.
Mikati has expressed a desire to step down but said last week he would stay at Sleiman’s request in the “national interest.”
Hezbollah voiced willingness to attend National Dialogue to decide the fate of the current government.
Speaking to reporters after meeting Sleiman, Raad said: “The talks with the president were about bringing forward the date of convening the Dialogue committee to discuss what has come of things. We have expressed our willingness to return to the National Dialogue at the time specified by the presidents.” He added that the talks did not touch on the government situation.
Sleiman also met at Baabda Palace with U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly, who reiterated her country’s support for the president and other leaders as they seek to build an effective government and said that Washington will not prejudge the outcomes of these efforts, according to a U.S. Embassy statement.
For his part, Speaker Nabih Berri criticized the March 14 parties’ decision to boycott parliamentary sessions and the government’s meetings, saying that the Cabinet crisis can be addressed only through dialogue. “It is unacceptable and not in anyone’s interest that the country falls into a vacuum and paralysis,” Berri said during his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his residence in Ain al-Tineh.
“The government issue or other issues can be addressed only through dialogue rather than through a boycott of dialogue and a boycott of legislation,” he added.
Meanwhile, the March 14 coalition again blamed the Syrian regime for Hasan’s assassination, renewing its call for the government’s resignation. It said there can be no National Dialogue between rival groups before the government steps down.
“The March 14 parties hold the current government – with its head and the political parties that back him – chiefly responsible for facilitating the plan of the criminal Assad regime and considers its departure now as a necessary condition for any efforts to ward off dangers and ensure stability,” said a statement issued after a meeting of the March 14 Secretariat General. “The first step to stand against strife is the fall of this government.” During his meeting with Sleiman Tuesday, Siniora said the Future bloc will not participate in Dialogue and will boycott Parliament sessions until the government resigns. The bloc has called for the formation of a “neutral salvation government.”
Sleiman’s consultations with National Dialogue members were discussed by U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly during a meeting with Gemayel. Plumbly stressed U.N. concern over stability in Lebanon.
Asked whether he would prefer the formation of a national unity government for Lebanon, Plumbly told reporters: “I believe this is a Lebanese political process and the outcome of the consultations will, I hope, be a Lebanese one that satisfies all sides.”
Referring to the statement issued after the meeting he and the ambassadors of the five major powers held with Sleiman Monday, he said: “At the same time, the second part of our statement was on the importance of continuity of Lebanese constitutional and governmental institutions during this period because Lebanon is subjected at this time to dangers that are not only internal but also regional. It is important that there should be stability to the highest extent possible. For us in the United Nations, this is our first concern in Lebanon.” – With AFP

Lebanon risks being torn apart by Syrian conflict
By Shashank Joshi/Research fellow, Royal United Services Institute
Lebanon, like so many small nations buffeted by greater powers, has always sought and failed to carve out space for its own politics, free from the overweening influence of its self-appointed friends and protectors.
In this tradition, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has over the past 18 months articulated a policy of "disassociation". As he puts it, "we decided to stay away from the Syrian crisis".
But things aren't so simple. As Leon Trotsky once noted: "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you."
Lebanon unavoidably sits in Syria's shadow. It is a rear area for the conflict.
More than 100,000 Syrians have already fled westwards, including 7,500 Palestinians who had been refugees in Syria. In northern Lebanon, the Free Syrian Army battling President Bashar al-Assad's regime enjoys cross-border tribal links, and finds respite, medicine and weaponry.
The danger now is that Lebanon's state, always a tenuously negotiated compromise, falls apart under this strain”
End Quote Lebanon is also a microcosm of broader sectarian and strategic rivalries. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran jostle for influence, and pro- and anti-Assad factions often live adjacent to one another in combustible cities like Tripoli.
The 19 October assassination of Wissam al-Hassan, a top Lebanese intelligence official, is a continuation of this struggle: Mr Hassan was close to Sunni groups in Lebanon. He was seen as supportive of the anti-Assad rebels, and had previously played a role in uncovering alleged Syrian plots to conduct bombings across Lebanon.
The mounting anger of Lebanon's Sunni opposition echoes that of 2005. That year, a popular movement triggered by the suspected Syrian-sponsored assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri forced Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, ending 30 years of occupation.
But over the last few years, pro-Syrian forces have been on the ascendant. Hezbollah, the Shia militant group backed by Syria and Iran, and which is alleged to have contributed fighters to the Syrian regime's crackdown, outmuscled Sunni rivals on the streets of Beirut in 2008, and cemented its position in 2011 by stacking a new government with allies.
Tens of thousands of Syrians have fled to Lebanon to escape the violence The group is now probably stronger than the Lebanese army itself - which, as if things weren't confusing enough, has received more than $720m (£450m) in American military aid since 2006. Under these circumstances, Lebanon cannot meaningfully "disassociate" itself from Syria.
Struggling army
The danger now is that Lebanon's state, always a tenuously negotiated compromise, falls apart under this strain.
Sunni factions want to bring down the government, something the United States has encouraged. But, since the killing of Rafik Hariri, these factions have lacked leadership.
As one Sunni resident of Beirut told the writer Mitchell Prothero in May: "The Shia have [Hezbollah leader] Nasrallah … we have a poster of a dead man."
Lebanon's security agencies are also divided. The Internal Security Forces, whose intelligence branch was led by the slain Mr Hassan, is perceived to be pro-Sunni and anti-Assad, whereas the General Security Directorate is close to Hezbollah.
In recent days, the Lebanese army has proven more assertive than in the past in keeping a lid on violence, but if skirmishes escalated to higher levels then it would struggle to stamp its authority.
In 2008, the army shrank from intervening in street battles, partly for fear that it would, as during the Lebanese civil war, fracture along sectarian lines.
Hezbollah is not eager to tear apart a state in which it holds such a strong position.
But, if violence once more becomes seen as the only way to redress grievances against the government, then the group, already anxious about losing its ally in Damascus, would not simply surrender - and the army might well have to choose between standing aside and falling apart.
Lebanese political leaders have called for calm, but the country's elite politics is at risk of becoming detached from the street.
This is particularly likely if such provocations as Mr Hassan's assassination recur or more Syrian plots in Lebanon come to light. Even if protests ebb away in the days ahead, Lebanon's fragile political system will remain dangerously vulnerable to Syrian spillover.

Why Lebanon isn't headed for civil war
The death of Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan in Lebanon has led to some overheated international speculation.
By Nicholas Blanford, Correspondent / October 24, 2012
The Christian Science Monitor
Weekly Digital Edition
The death of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan, head of the police's intelligence bureau, in a car bomb explosion in Beirut provoked headlines around the world that Lebanon was descending toward renewed civil strife and suffering the consequences of a spillover from neighboring Syria, which is caught in its own devastating conflict. Although Syria has been blamed by many Lebanese for Hassan's assassination, the reality is more complex, and the prognosis not necessarily as dire as the international assumptions would suggest.
“No I don’t think there will be a civil war from this assassination,” says Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Center in Beirut. “The leaderships of March 14 and March 8 do not want instability in Lebanon at this time,” he added referring to the two rival parliamentary coalitions that dominate the Lebanese political landscape.
Sunni and Shiite Islam: Do you know the difference? Take our quiz.
Still, Lebanon does face a period of uncertainty as Syria collapses into ever-worsening violence. Lebanon’s communal stresses and strains and the conflict in Syria almost guarantee further acts of violence – assassinations, random bomb attacks, Shiite-Sunni violence, or possible clashes along the sensitive northern and eastern borders with Syria. But there are compelling reasons why Lebanon will not succumb to the kind of full-blown civil war that ravaged the country between 1975 and 1990.
First, memories of that debilitating 16-year conflict are still raw. The war left more than 100,000 people dead and some 17,000 still missing, a substantial number for a country with a population today of only 4 million. No one seeks a return to that grim and bloody period.
Second, in 1975, the military balance between the rival sides was more equally matched than is the case today. In 2012, there is only one major non-state armed force – the militant Shiite Hezbollah. With its enormous military resources, Hezbollah could defeat the Lebanese Army, let alone another militia.
The confrontational dynamic in Lebanon today is no longer Christian against Muslim, but Sunni against Shiite, reflecting the intra-Muslim schism that has taken hold in the region during the past decade. Several hundred Lebanese Sunni volunteers have joined the ranks of the rebel Free Syrian Army to fight the forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. Radical voices drawn mainly from the clergy are emerging in Lebanon in reaction to the Syria conflict as well as Sunni frustration at the rising power of Lebanese Shiites and a moderate Sunni leadership that seems out of step with the mood on the street.
Hezbollah cadres say they are bracing for what they believe is an inevitable large-scale car-bomb attack – of the kind that has blighted Iraq and more recently Syria – targeting the party’s stronghold in the densely populated southern suburbs of Beirut. Yet, in general, Lebanese Sunnis are unable to mount a prolonged internal conflict, especially against Hezbollah, even if the leadership of the community wanted to do so.
Third, despite the factional rivalries in Lebanon, the top leaders agree on the importance of maintaining stability in Lebanon and not allowing Syria’s woes to trigger domestic violence. Hezbollah stayed out of the sporadic clashes that followed Hassan’s death last week, recognizing that the Sunni supporters of the slain security chief were venting anger rather than seeking a war. The Lebanese Army also had political cover to move into trouble spots in Beirut and elsewhere to stamp out the clashes.
As the tensions on the streets dissipate, the rival factions are pursuing their disagreements on a political level. The Western-backed March 14 coalition is seeking the resignation of the government and its replacement with a neutral cabinet of technocrats drawn from neither camp. The March 8 coalition, which is headed by Hezbollah and forms the backbone of the government, refuses to step down but has said it is open to a possible cabinet reshuffle.
The Lebanese have long endured factional violence and have developed a battle-worn resilience that helps maintain a (somewhat dysfunctional) degree of stability.
“Top-level assassinations and instant street clashes that would shatter most other countries are taken in stride by most Lebanese, who stay home for 36 hours and then resume their normal lives,” wrote Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute of Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in a weekly column for Agence Global

Syrian army declares conditional Eid ceasefire
October 25, 2012/By Mariam Karouny, Stephanie Nebehay
BEIRUT/GENEVA: Syria's army command announced a ceasefire on Thursday to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al Adha but said it reserved the right to respond to any rebel attack or moves to reinforce President Bashar al-Assad's armed foes.
A Free Syrian Army commander gave qualified backing to the truce, proposed by U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, but demanded Assad free detainees. An Islamist group said it was not committed to the truce but may halt operations if the army did.
Brahimi proposed the temporary truce to stem, however briefly, the bloodshed in a conflict which erupted as popular protests in March last year and has escalated into a civil war which activists say has killed more than 32,000 people.
The fighting pits mainly Sunni Muslim rebels against Assad, from the Alawite faith which is linked to Shi'ite Islam, and threatens to draw in regional Sunni Muslim and Shi'ite powers and engulf the whole Middle East, Brahimi has warned.
"On the occasion of the blessed Eid al-Adha, the general command of the army and armed forces announces a halt to military operations on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, from Friday morning ... until Monday," an army statement read on state television said.
It reserved the right to respond if "the armed terrorist groups open fire on civilians and government forces, attack public and private properties, or use car bombs and explosives".
It would also respond to any reinforcement or re-supplying of rebel units, or smuggling of fighters from neighbouring countries "in violation of their international commitments to combat terrorism".
Qassem Saadeddine, head of the military council in Homs province and spokesman for the FSA joint command, said his fighters were committed to the truce.
"But we not allow the regime to reinforce its posts. We demand the release of the detainees, the regime should release them by tomorrow morning," he said.
Abu Moaz, spokesman for Ansar al-Islam, said the Islamist group doubted Assad's forces would observe the truce, though it might suspend operations if they did.
"We do not care about this truce. We are cautious. If the tanks are still there and the checkpoints are still there then what is the truce?" he said of the organisation, which includes several brigades fighting in the capital and Damascus province.
Brahimi's predecessor, former U.N. chief Kofi Annan, declared a ceasefire in Syria on April 12, but it soon became a dead letter, along with the rest of his six-point peace plan.
Violence has intensified since then, with daily death tolls compiled by opposition monitoring groups often exceeding 200.
U.N. aid agencies have geared up to take advantage of any window of opportunity provided by a ceasefire to go to areas that have been difficult to reach due to fighting, a U.N. official in Geneva said.
"UN agencies have been preparing rapidly to scale up especially in areas that have been difficult to reach due to active conflict and which may become accessible as a result of these developments," he told Reuters.
The U.N. refugee agency UNHCR said that it had prepared emergency kits for distribution for up to 13,000 families - an estimated 65,000 people - in previously inaccessible areas including Homs and the northeastern city of Hassaka.
"We and our partners want to be in a position to move quickly if security allows over the next few days," UNHCR Syria Representative Tarik Kurdi in Damascus said in a statement.
The U.N. World Food Programme has identified 90,000 people in 21 hotspots from Aleppo to Homs and Latakia in need food parcels and will try to reach them through local agencies, the U.N. official said. Earlier on Thursday rebels seized two northern districts in Syria's largest city, Aleppo, on Thursday, activists said.
"We have just liberated Ashrafiyeh and the Syriac quarter," a rebel fighter said, referring to areas which had been held by Kurdish militias and troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.
Rebels were still fighting around the Rahman Mosque district and trying to besiege a security building, he added.
Activists said at least 14 people were killed. It was not clear if the dead were fighters or civilians.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group monitoring the Syrian conflict, said Kurdish units were still fighting to stop the rebels from entering Ashrafiyeh.
Battles have engulfed Aleppo since late July, but a stalemate had developed, with snipers restricting movement of fighters and the two sides largely entrenched on frontlines.
China urged all sides to respect a ceasefire, an idea also backed by Syria's main regional ally Iran,

Former United Nations war crimes prosecutor Del Ponte promises to hunt Syria war criminals
October 25, 2012/By Stephanie Nebehay/GENEVA: Carla del Ponte, the former United Nations war crimes prosecutor, vowed on Thursday to bring to justice high level Syrian political or military figures who may have ordered or committed war crimes. Del Ponte, who has joined a team of U.N. human rights investigators on Syria, said she would help compile evidence and testimonies which could be used in an international tribunal or Syrian national court. Led by Brazilian expert Paulo Pinheiro, the team has been documenting atrocities committed by Syrian government forces and armed rebels in the 19-month-old conflict. "My main task will be to continue the inquiry in the direction of determining the high-ranking political and military authorities responsible for these crimes," she told reporters.
Del Ponte later said in a Swiss television interview it was up to key U.N. institutions and major powers to decide what to do with the findings of the team whose next report is due in January.
" We don't know yet whether it will be an international court or a national court or what. Our task is to carry out this investigation to gather evidence and it will be up to the U.N. Human Rights Council or Security Council to decide," she said.
In their last report in August, the investigators said Syrian government forces and allied militia had committed war crimes including murder and torture of civilians in what appeared to be a state-directed policy. The investigators have also drawn up a secret list of Syrian individuals and units suspected of committing crimes which they say could pave the way for future criminal prosecution.
The list is locked in a safe in the office of U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, who has repeatedly called for the Security Council to refer the conflict in Syria to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC). "We are not a tribunal, we are not a criminal prosecution body. What we do is to build evidence for future judicial initiatives in terms of making accountable those responsible for these violations," Pinheiro said. Del Ponte's eight years at the Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia were dominated by the pursuit and trial of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, who died in 2006 before sentencing. Asked about parallels between Syria and past investigations, she said: "The similarity is of course we are handling the same crimes, crimes against humanity and war crimes for sure."
Previously the Swiss attorney-general and also known for her crusades against the mafia and organised crime, Del Ponte said she was moved by the accounts of atrocities emerging from Syria.
"There are many, many victims. I have learned that there are many children among them. It may be the first time that I am confronted by this," she told Swiss television.
The investigators have sent a letter requesting to meet Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in a bid to secure access for the team which has been shut out of the country since being set up a year ago.
They have interviewed more than 1,100 victims, refugees and defectors, but have not been able to meet wounded soldiers or families of state forces killed by rebels.
"We intend to go there without conditions to meet President Assad to discuss access of our commission to Syria," said Pinheiro, who went to Damascus in June in a personal capacity.
Del Ponte praised the panel's work in documenting violations across Syria as providing a "big picture of the crime base" needed to pursue responsibility up the chain of command.

Syrian businessman missing in east Lebanon
October 25, 2012/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Police in east Lebanon are searching for a Syrian businessman believed to have been kidnapped after he left home late Wednesday and never returned.
Security sources, speaking to The Daily Star on condition of anonymity, said Youssef Khaled Turkumani reported his brother, Mustafa, missing after he lost cell-phone connection with him at 10 p.m. Wednesday. Youssef, who owns a ceramic company with his brother in Chtaura, said he was in touch with Mustafa, 44, after he left home in Taalabaya to the nearby village of Faour.
“I was talking to Mustafa at around 10 in the evening when his phone was suddenly disconnected,” Youssef said in his police report.
His black Mercedes was found with the driver’s seat door open parked at the entrance to Dalhamiyeh, some 500 meters from Faour.

This is why Lebanon will not stabilize...
By Osman Mirghani/Asharq Alawsat
Lebanon is a victim of itself and others. This small country seems constantly doomed to pay extortionate bills with its security and stability, and the blood of its sons. At best, it is obliged to live in a fragile and tense truce, deprived of true stability and lasting peace. The players differ, and the offenders vary, but the results are always the same. The country constantly teeters on the edge of the abyss, being pushed around by foreign interests and endless domestic conflicts. Internal coexistence remains fragile, and all parties operate under the principle of “no winners and no losers”, except Lebanon itself of course, which is helpless.
Lebanon is considered fair game because national unity exists there in name only. Sectarian tensions open Lebanon’s pores to anyone seeking to erode the nation, or to settle scores with others on its territory. Slogans are traded internally as national sovereignty is sold to third parties, and the fate of the country is placed in the hands of others. Lebanon has become a commodity in the auction of politics, and an open arena for the wars and conflicts of others. How many wars have taken place on Lebanese territory by remote control, how many assassinations have occurred through decisions from abroad, and how many murder files remain open, with the killers still unknown? Few are those who have sought to help Lebanon out of its ordeal, and many are those who want to keep it subject to their calculations, and a hotbed for their wars.
The assassination of Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan, head of the intelligence branch of the Lebanese Internal Security Forces, does not differ in its motives and objectives from many of the assassinations that have rocked Lebanon in the past. The intention was to instigate a shock, thus increasing tensions and further pushing the country towards a vacuum and sectarian strife, with the aim of creating a war or at least putting the country on the brink of it. There is something of a consensus that the timing of the crime and the choice of assassination target were intended to aggravate the internal situation as much as possible, which has remained tense ever since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, with tensions further increasing as a result of the Syrian crisis. Many see a link between the assassination of Brigadier General al-Hassan and the arrest of former Lebanese minister Michel Samaha, who was detained before carrying out his task and who confessed to receiving orders from Damascus. In both cases, the intention was to aggravate the internal situation and transfer the Syrian war onto Lebanese territory. Lebanon remains the weakest link among Syria’s neighbors, and hence the easiest to exploit. There are Lebanese allies, agents and clients ready to line up behind Damascus and expand the arena of conflict, in order to relieve the pressure on the Syrian regime and complicate regional and international calculations, especially since the fall of the al-Assad regime would be a blow to Tehran and would weaken Hezbollah. In this regard we have seen a growing escalation on the Turkish-Syrian border, attempts to move the tension to Jordan and Iraq, and we can also include the timing of the drone launched over Israel, which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for.
The wise in Lebanon were quick to contain the anger that erupted after the assassination of al-Hassan, so that the crime would not achieve its planned objectives and Lebanon would not descend into war. But the problem remains how to respond, and should the government resign or be dismissed? If the government stepped down what would be the alternative, and would this alternative be able to operate in light of the political polarization and sectarian tensions?
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said he will not hold onto his position because he believes his sect is being targeted, he senses its anger, and he cannot bear the responsibility for al-Hassan’s blood. But even this resignation, which would seem natural in any other country going through what Lebanon is going through, does not seem easy to agree upon, even among allies. While many believe that the resignation is the least the Prime Minister can do, there are also those who believe that this will not solve the problem and will only add more confusion and complexity, and may lead the country towards a vacuum, particularly as the formation of an alternative government will face obstacles from forces allied with Damascus. In turn, this vacuum could increase sectarian tensions and end up igniting the situation, which would mean that Wissam al-Hassan’s assassins would have finally achieved their goal. In light of this complex picture, a government of national unity remains a distant dream, because such a government, even if it was formed by some miracle, will never succeed if Lebanon itself is not united. It will never succeed if there is no consensus on Lebanese sovereignty, and if Lebanese politicians are not united in their rejection of foreign interference, and distanced from such influences.
Is there a solution?
The sad answer is that there is no real solution in sight as long as Lebanon remains internally divided, and as long as sectarian tension prevails. Many Lebanese citizens value loyalty to their sect over loyalty to their homeland, and they seek to make alliances abroad instead of fortifying the domestic situation and strengthening the unity of their country and the independence of its decisions. People today are calling, just as they called after other assassinations or crises, for a salvation government, or for another round of national dialogue, but this will only help to treat the wounds; it will not cure the underlying disease. The Lebanese must be honest with themselves and recognize that the current constitutional formula needs to be reviewed, because it does not solve the problem of sectarianism, rather it legitimizes it, and it does not strengthen national unity, rather it weakens it. In a country with 18 officially recognized sects, there is a need to do everything possible to enhance assimilation between groups and strengthen national unity. There is a need for a frank discussion about whether sectarian quotas in their current form have actually succeeded in protecting the country and safeguarding its unity, or if they have actually consecrated sectarianism there, and made the country vulnerable to foreign interference and an arena for the wars of others.
The problem of Lebanon will only be resolved when the Lebanese behave like Lebanese, regardless of whether they are Muslim or Christian, Sunni or Shiite, Maronite or Orthodox, Druze or Alawite, Armenian or Assyrian. In the absence of this, the country will never know genuine stability or lasting peace, and it will continue to be sacrificed at the hands of its sons and the hands of others.

FSA close to securing "buffer zone" in northern Syria - Source
25/10/2012/By Paula Astatih and Sami Amara
Beirut/Moscow, Asharq Al-Awsat – Al-Assad regime forces withdrew from the city of Harem in Idlib Governorate on Tuesday following prolonged bloody clashes there. Following this, the Free Syrian Army [FSA] announced that it had been able to gain control of more than 18 checkpoints in the region. This withdrawal represents a turning point in the battle for northern Syria, with the opposition Local Coordination Committee [LCC] announcing that the Syrian rebels are now in control of around 80 percent of Idlib Governorate and may declare northern Syrian a “buffer zone” within a matter of hours. This comes as fighting continued to rage in the run up to a proposed Eid al-Adha ceasefire on Friday. The al-Assad regime had said that it would issue its decision regarding the Lakhdar Brahimi negotiated ceasefire later on Thursday, whilst the Syrian rebels had put forward a number of conditions for any truce.The FSA advance in Idlib Governorate was followed by Moscow claims that the Syrian rebels are utilizing US-made Stinger missiles, something that both Washington and the FSA strongly deny. Russian Chief of Staff General Nikolai Makarov announced that “we have information that the rebels fighting the Syrian army have shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles, including Stingers made in the United States.” He added “we still need to find out who delivered them [to the Syrian rebels].”
Washington strongly disputed the allegation, and challenged Moscow to provide proof. US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said “we have provided no Stingers of any kind to Syria, nor will we” adding “if the Russian Federation has evidence of Stingers in the hands of the opposition, we’d like to see it.”
The FSA leadership has been seeking to announce the establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria for a number of months, in addition to calling for the Syrian opposition to be provided with heavy weapons, including high-quality man-portable air-defense systems [MANPADS] such as Stinger missiles. Such arms would allow the Syrian rebels to confront the al-Assad regime’s aerial superiority, and challenge regime troops in the air, as well as on the ground. Despite the FSA desperately wanting such weapons, it confirmed that it is not currently in possession of any Stinger missiles.
Commander of the Shahba Aleppo Brigade, Sheikh Abdul Rahman, informed Asharq Al-Awsat that northern Syria is now completely under control of the Syrian rebels. He also denied reports that the rebels possess Stinger missiles, stressing “all that we possess are weapons that we have seized during clashes with regime forces.” He added “what is being said about our possessing heavy weapons from abroad is untrue, and the objective of this is to dry up our supply or light and medium arms.”
Syrian National Council [SNC] member, Adib Shishakli, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “now that we control the city of Harem, it can be said that we are in the process of establishing a Syrian-made buffer zone, although we still don’t have any air cover due to the absence of an international resolution to provide the rebels with heavy weaponry.”
He added “what is being said about Stinger missiles being in the hands of the Syrian rebels is untrue, particularly as it is impossible to hide the use of these missiles on the battlefield. The western states and the US administration are continuing to refuse, until now, to provide us with this type of arms as it would upset all equations.”
For his part, FSA Joint Command spokesman, Fahd al-Masri, expressed his fear that the al-Assad regime forces retreat from Idlib Governorate and the surrounding area was a precursor to a fierce aerial bombardment of the region utilizing rockets and internationally banned weapons. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Syrian rebels are doing everything in their power to announce northern Aleppo and Idlib as a liberated buffer zone, and to provide this zone with international protection in the forthcoming period.
He said “what we want is the formation of an international military coalition, outside the framework of the UN Security Council, to carry out aerial strikes against the joints of the regime, in addition to the provision of heavy weaponry that will allow the FSA to completely 100 percent protect a buffer zone, by air and land.”
As for the claims that the FSA is in possession of Stinger missiles, al-Masri told Asharq Al-Awsat “what the FSA has, in terms of anti-aircraft weaponry, has been plundered from some arms caches belonging to the regime. He added “as for all other talk about the entry of heavy weapons from western or Arab states, this is all inaccurate.”
Commenting on the UN preparing contingency plans to send peacekeepers into Syria, al-Masri said “we informed UN – Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, of the need to send international forces into Syria, particularly along the Lebanese – Syrian border, in order to put an end to Hezbollah intervention in Syrian affairs, not to mention its bombardment of Syrian territory.”

The defects of the opposition in the Gulf
By Adel Al Toraifi/Asharq Alawsat
Gertrude Bell once wrote: “Of what value are the pan-Arabic associations and inflammatory leaflets that they issue from foreign printing presses? The answer is easy: they are worth nothing at all. There is no nation of Arabs”. Bell’s words could equally describe what is now happening in some Gulf streets, where slogans are being shouted, foreign concepts are being borrowed, and phrases are being repeated that may not reflect the reality of those countries. In this context we can ask the following necessary question: Do the Gulf states need to pursue radical policies to achieve political reform? Or do today’s slogans – no matter how attractive they seem – harbor sharp contrasts that will come to the fore in the near future and expose the hollow promises pledged by some opposition figures in the Gulf?
There are obvious cases of incitement amidst the political discourse of some opposition factions in more than one Gulf state. There are several reasons for this, and the means vary according to the size of the groups and the characters within, but what unites them – unfortunately – is the growing phenomenon of verbal and physical escalation, sometimes to the extent that some of their behavior represents a threat to peace and national unity.
Unfortunately, some of the radical features of the Gulf opposition are a negative product of what happened and is happening in the region. Here I am talking about the popular uprisings against totalitarian or fascist regimes, some of which have transformed into civil wars, and others which have ended in hasty elections won by unstable coalitions led by religious parties.
The Gulf states have avoided this experience so far, but the psychological impact is still prevalent. With regards to this there are two views, one which is excited about what happened, even advocating it in the Gulf – as a few have done so far – with aggressive behavior, claiming that current reform does not live up to certain visions of what the state and society should be. On the other hand, there are those who warn against the attractions of the – utopian – “revolutionary” model, especially among the young generation. Some even argue that there is an attempt by some politicized religious movements – the Muslim Brotherhood in particular – to apply pressure and achieve political gains through a temporary alliance with contradictory coalitions of the traditional opposition. There are those who would say that what has happened recently in some Gulf states is a deliberate clash with the security services, and a deliberate attempt to question the impartiality of the judiciary, by focusing divisive political issues, which in turn creates conflict between one party and another.
There is no doubt that criticizing the opposition’s practices in the Gulf states is not popular in this environment, particularly as criticism of the ruling authorities has become less expensive and more attractive than it was in the past. For example, a passionate sermon from a preacher or a borrowed phrase posted by an internet blogger can make one to feel that a historical transformation has taken place. Yet mere rhetoric in the virtual world cannot change the real world.
The Gulf states share many common values and interests, but there are differences in the history politics and society of each one, and because of that they are able to learn from each other though each has its own course,, and each must change and develop at its pace.
The debate today about the cohesion of the Gulf regimes or the challenges that lie ahead is nothing new. Ever since the 1950s, when the region was swept by a wave of nationalist and Baathist military coups, efforts have been made to define the future of the Gulf societies. In his book “All in the Family: Absolutism, Revolution, and Democracy in the Middle Eastern Monarchies” (1999), Michael Herb refutes the explanation of the “rentier state” – relating to oil – which is usually used to explain the durability and stability of the Gulf’s Arab states. Instead, Herb points out that the modern civil transformation in the Gulf did not abolish the historical rules governing the relationship between the ruler and the ruled, but rather it has developed to varying degrees to adapt to the monarchical system. In comparison with other examples where the failure of monarchies has led to disastrous results, such as in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Yemen and others, Herb emphasizes that progressive, evolutionary development is the safest option for the Gulf states compared to the radical, revolutionary change.
Unfortunately, there are those who are betting on the second option. They are a partisan minority, aspiring for power even if it comes at the expense of the public. Yet what really arouses concern is that this minority harbors an authoritarian impulse that contradicts its slogans of rights and individual liberties. However, this minority has been able to win over some and enter into political alliances with others. Yet behind this alleged “peaceful” exterior, some of these forces and personalities have a history of hardline positions which others have failed to scrutinize.
Unfortunately, the opposition in the Gulf has numerous defects, for it does not have the sustainability of past successful development projects, nor does it offer clear economic programs for the future. The opposition seems indifferent to the regional threats stemming from the Iranian or the Syrian regimes. Indeed, some figures currently active in opposition movements used to laud Hezbollah's role and encourage Hamas' rise against democracy in Gaza. Some members of the current Gulf opposition have even explicitly rejected the freedom of expression, women’s rights, and justified terrorism.
The Gulf societies must learn from the recent "Arab Spring" experience, whereby liberals and independents participated alongside the Islamists in the Tahrir Square demonstrations, under the pretext of unity to topple the regime, but when the regime was overthrown, the Islamists seized power unilaterally. The rest went back to their social networking websites to lament their misfortune.

Who killed Wissam al-Hassan
Tony Badran/Now Lebanon/October 25, 2012
Lebanese protesters following the funeral of slain intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan on Sunday. Many suspect Syria’s, and, by extension Iran’s, involvement with the killing. (AFP photo)
Who killed Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan? Following the assassination last Friday, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt blamed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. However, Jumblatt refrained from addressing “whether Hezbollah or any others [were] behind the assassination, because we would be doing what Assad wants us to do.”
Jumblatt’s concern is understandable. His priority is to avoid internal Sunni-Shiite sectarian tension and to keep the security situation in Lebanon under control. However, Hassan’s assassination reaches far beyond Lebanon. There’s a compelling case to be made that the elimination of the influential security chief is part of Iran's contingency planning, from Iraq to Lebanon, to consolidate Tehran’s gains, especially in the event they lose their Syrian ally.
Like Jumblatt, both the Lebanese president and prime minister linked the murder to Hassan’s recent arrest of former minister, and close friend of Assad’s, Michel Samaha. The former minister was caught red handed and charged with plotting terrorist bombings on orders from Assad. As a result, Hassan received countless, explicit, death threats from Syria’s allies in Lebanon. Therefore, in light of his role in the Samaha case, it was easy to see Assad’s obvious motive.
However, Jumblatt’s comment shows he understands that an operation of this scale strongly suggests Hezbollah involvement. For one, the nature of the operation required an apparatus with intelligence and logistical capabilities of the kind Hezbollah alone possesses. Indeed, none other than Michel Samaha has attested to this fact.
In the transcripts of the surveillance tapes that led to his arrest, the informant recruited by Hassan reaffirms to Samaha that “in Lebanon other than the Party [of God], there’s nothing. The rest are a joke.” Samaha replies in agreement, adding: “the party and the structure directly around it—the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) and the Baath.” Needless to say, the SSNP and the Baath are small-time local thugs. It is Hezbollah that controls the airport and fields its own intelligence network.
However, when we speak of Hezbollah, we’re really speaking of Iran. To be sure, Iran shares Assad’s objectives. Still, even as Tehran has marshaled all the instruments of its national power to ensure Assad’s survival, it also has had to plan for his potential loss. To achieve both goals, Iran has been on a region-wide drive to consolidate its assets. Effectively, this means fortifying its position in Iraq and Lebanon.
To that end, Tehran has been aggressively pushing to secure a military and security agreement with Baghdad. Moreover, it has sought to shore up its ally, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who had faced a challenge in parliament from the president of the Kurdish Regional Government, Massoud Barzani.
Tehran tried reaching out to Barzani in order to broker a détente with Maliki. But it has also sought to isolate the Kurdish president by moving closer to his Kurdish rivals, and has increased its support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK also affords Iran the ability to raise the heat on Barzani’s ally, Turkey. In addition, Iran has reportedly advised the PKK to seek closer ties with Maliki, who was receptive to the idea, as it affords him an avenue to pressure Barzani.
Kurdish MP Mahmoud Osman explained Iran’s moves in Iraq. The most important issue for Iran at the moment is Syria, Osman recently said. He then added, “The visit of [Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad] Wahidi to Baghdad and [Quds Force commander Qasem] Soleimani to Kurdistan coincided in order to convince the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad to assist Iran at this stage.”
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Iran has been even more blatant in its push for control. It has dispensed with the shackles of diplomatic protocols, openly and repeatedly declaring (what everyone knew) that Hezbollah was an arm of Tehran. It now speaks not only on behalf of Hezbollah, but also on behalf of Lebanon, bypassing the Lebanese government altogether.
Where does Wissam Hassan fit in this picture? Hezbollah mouthpiece al-Akhbar provided the clearest answer: “Hassan headlined the Lebanese-regional front active against the Syrian regime, and, secondly, against Hezbollah and Iran. […] He represents the front led by the US as well as Arab and regional states. […] He is at the heart of the open war.”
In other words, for Iran, Hassan represented the confluence of its enemies in the regional Sunni pro-American bloc. Moreover, he stood atop the only security apparatus not controlled by Hezbollah. As Iran seeks to shore up its proxy’s grip on the Lebanese state, as a hedge against a critical setback in Syria, it has to eliminate all threats, while also leaving the Sunnis in disarray. To quote Samaha once more, “you must be ready for anything. Along with Iraq … and Lebanon.”
Iran is conducting a region-wide drive with an eye on the regional balance of power. This is what’s at stake in Syria, and what’s playing out in Iraq, the Kurdish Regional Government, Lebanon and Turkey. This Iranian power play best explains why Hassan was killed.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.