LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 12/12

Bible Quotation for today/The Two House Builders
Matthew 07/24-27: " So then, anyone who hears these words of mine and obeys them is like a wise man who built his house on rock. The rain poured down, the rivers flooded over, and the wind blew hard against that house. But it did not fall, because it was built on rock. But anyone who hears these words of mine and does not obey them is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain poured down, the rivers flooded over, the wind blew hard against that house, and it fell. And what a terrible fall that was!

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
On the waiting list/By Abdullah Al-Otaibi/Asharq Alawsa/October 11/12
Al-Maliki: A substitute for al-Assad in the region/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 11/12
Questions remain over downed drone in Israel/By: Justin Salhani/Now Lebanon

President Michel Sleiman vows to reject renewal of presidential term in 2014
October 11, 2012 /The Daily Star /BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman has pledged to reject any bid to renew his six-year-term in office when it expires in 2014. Speaking in a recorded interview with NBN TV broadcast Wednesday night, Sleiman added he was working to reach agreement on a new election law that reflected plurality in Lebanon. Asked whether he would accept a renewal of his mandate if it was difficult for some reason to elect a new president in 2014, Sleiman said: “Definitely, I will not accept an extension of my term for one or two years. The Lebanese Constitution has found a solution for this issue – the Cabinet will take over the president’s powers.” The interview was conducted in Argentina last week during Sleiman’s tour of Latin America. Sleiman reiterated his support for the government’s approved draft electoral law, which would divide Lebanon into 13 medium-sized districts based on a system of proportional representation. The government’s draft law has been rejected outright by the opposition March 14 coalition, which argues that it is designed to serve the interests of Hezbollah and its March 8 allies. “My stance is to support the proportionality law,” Sleiman said. “However, Parliament, which is the master of its own decision, will decide on a new election law.”He added that once a new law has been approved by Parliament, he will refer it to the Constitutional Council to decide on whether it is constitutional.
Sleiman’s remarks came amid deep divisions between the March 14 coalition and the Hezbollah-led March 8 bloc over which legislation best guarantees fair representation for all parties in the 2013 elections.
MPs from the joint parliamentary committees have so far failed to bridge the gap between the rival factions. The committees are also discussing a proposal presented by the March 14 Christian parties that would divide Lebanon into 50 small districts under a winner-takes-all-system. Another forwarded draft law is that of MP Michel Aoun’s Change and Reform parliamentary bloc, whereby every sect elects its own MPs. Meanwhile, Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as saying that some politicians were seeking to delay the adoption of a new election law. During his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his residence in Ain al-Tineh, MPs quoted Berri as saying: “Contacts are ongoing to address the issue of an election law.” For his part, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said “serious efforts” were under way to propose a law based on a draft prepared by a committee headed by former Minister Fouad Butros, which combines proportionality and a winner-takes-all system. “We must search for alternatives that ensure a true representation and address the Christians’ concerns,” Mikati said.

Ex, Lebanese President, Amin Gemayel: Hezbollah likely to control Lebanon
October 11, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Kataeb party leader Amin Gemayel warned in remarks Thursday that Hezbollah would likely use its role as a resistance group as a pretext to dominate Lebanon. “I have the impression that under the pretext of resistance Lebanon’s geography and sovereignty are being nibbled away so that one day Lebanon would fall under the control of Hezbollah,” Gemayel told pan-Arab Al-Hayat newspaper. In a wide-ranging interview, Gemayel also warned Lebanon’s political parties against intervening in the Syria crisis and criticized Hezbollah’s logic of “jihadist duty across the border” with Syria. “This was my biggest fear,” he said in response to a question about reports alleging Hezbollah fighters are fighting alongside troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad. “So far, [Hezbollah’s] intervention appears to be on a small-scale ... I warn all parties of such intervention and the need for restraint for Lebanon’s sake,” Gemayel said. He urged parties involved in National Dialogue to agree on the terminologies linked to a defense strategy. “I hope Hezbollah will converge [on these terms] constructively and courageously,” Gemayel said. Regarding the dispute over a new election law, Gemayel said his party was exerting much effort to reach an agreement with the opposition March 14 coalition and MP Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party. “We are in touch with all the parties,” he said, referring to initial communication between the Kataeb party and allies in the Lebanese Forces as well as rivals in the Marada Movement of MP Suleiman Franjieh and Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and independent figures. “But so far we have not reached an agreement,” Gemayel said. “Things are not easy. The election law defines the role of each sect, group or party as well as its future in Lebanon.”However, Gemayel said the Kataeb and the LF have made progress on a compromise on a fair distribution of electoral districts.The debate over an election law is exposing contrasting interests among the March 14 allies. Gemayel is a leading figure in March 14. With less than three months left for the country to launch preparations for the upcoming 2013 parliamentary elections, rival political leaders have yet to agree on a new electoral law. Although several electoral laws have been proposed, none of them enjoy overwhelming support. Jumblatt has so far rejected most proposals, including one drafted by the government which calls for elections be held in 13 electoral districts based on a system of proportional representation. Jumblatt, who has three ministers in Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government, says he believes the 1960 law – a winner-takes-all system which adopts the qada as the electorate – is currently the best option for Lebanon. Another proposal put forth by March 14 coalition would see Lebanon divided into 50 small-sized electoral constituencies but has been dismissed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Predominantly Muslim parties also reject the so-called Orthodox Gathering proposal which allows each sect to elect its own lawmakers by proportional representation. Hezbollah and Amal prefer the adoption of the entirety of Lebanon as a single district under a proportional representation system. But like the Future Movement, the two parties have not forwarded their own proposals.

Siniora lobbies Hezbollah to stay out of Syria
October 11, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora appealed to President Michel Sleiman and top Shiite political and religious leaders Wednesday to intercede with Hezbollah over the party’s alleged involvement in the unrest in Syria. Siniora warned that the party’s military involvement and participation in the fighting against anti-regime rebels in Syria would threaten Lebanon’s sectarian coexistence, expose the country to “unforeseeable dangers” and cause unprecedented strife in the Arab world. The Daily Star’s attempts to reach Hezbollah MPs for comment on Siniora’s warning were unsuccessful.
A Hezbollah official also refused to comment on Siniora’s statement, saying that the party’s Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah would talk about local and regional issues on Al-Manar television Thursday night. Siniora, head of the parliamentary Future bloc, phoned Sleiman, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan, vice-president of the Higher Shiite Council, and other Shiite figures, urging them to talk Hezbollah into distancing itself from the 19-month-old bloody conflict in Syria, the state-run National News Agency reported.
In his phone conversations with Sleiman, Berri and other figures he called, Siniora underlined the “gravity of Hezbollah’s involvement in the ongoing military conflict in Syria and its support for one group against the other under the title of ‘jihadist duty.’” “This [Hezbollah’s] military involvement and participation in the fighting under any slogan would expose Lebanon to unforeseeable dangers which it cannot bear and would threaten [sectarian] coexistence in Lebanon as well as the Muslims and the Arabs with unprecedented strife,” the former premier said in his appeal, according to NNA.
He called on Sleiman, Berri and Qabalan “to launch initiatives or take stands urging Hezbollah to halt its slide toward the armed conflict in Syria.”
“Based on the Lebanese Christian-Muslim partnership and the Muslim-Muslim partnership, I call on you to act together in order for Hezbollah to halt this slide and involvement [in the Syrian conflict] as well as involving Lebanon, the Arabs and Muslims in this conflict,” the former prime minister said in his appeal.
He added that there were wise leaders within Hezbollah and the Shiite community who reject the party’s drift toward military involvement in the fighting in Syria.
“Therefore, this slide [into the Syrian conflict] should be stopped. Let the Syrian people handle their own problems by themselves,” Siniora said.
Syrian opposition forces have repeatedly accused Hezbollah of supporting the regime’s forces in their crackdown against rebels.
According to rebels, members of Hezbollah have died in clashes in Syria before being returned to Lebanon for burial.
The party, however, has denied such accusations. Hezbollah has said funerals were held recently for party elements who were killed while performing “jihadist duty,” but has not said how or where they died.
In an apparent response to Siniora’s remarks, Baalbek lawmaker Walid Sukariyeh, a member of Hezbollah’s bloc in Parliament, categorically denied reports that members of the party had been participating in the fighting in Syria. “These reports are entirely untrue because the number of the Syrian army is around half-a-million. Therefore, Syria does not need 5,000 members from Hezbollah to help it in the ongoing fighting there,” Sukariyeh said in an interview with Elnashra website. He accused the opposition March 14 parties of linking Hezbollah to the accusation of intervention in Syria.
“These parties are sending arms and fighters to Syria,” he claimed.
Hezbollah officials have accused the March 14 parties, which support the uprising against the Assad regime, of sending money and arms to anti-regime rebels.
Siniora’s warning came as Syrian rebels have threatened to take the fight to Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs unless the party ends its support for the Assad regime.
“We [vow] to take the battle in Syria to the heart of the [Beirut] southern suburbs if [Hezbollah] does not stop supporting the killer-Syrian regime,” Free Syrian Army spokesman Fahd al-Masri told media outlets Tuesday. He said the FSA was holding 13 Hezbollah members in a village near Homs for their involvement in the Syria conflict.
Masri stressed that Hezbollah had been “deeply involved” in the fighting in Syria and said that the fate of the 13 detained men was “in the hands of [FSA] field commanders.”
In his appeal, Siniora condemned threats by Syrian rebels to target the southern suburbs in response to Hezbollah’s alleged participation in the fighting in Syria. The Syrian threats were also condemned by the Future bloc Tuesday. Responding to Masri’s threats, Sukariyeh said: “First, we have to decide who runs this army [FSA] because there are 200 commands for this army in Syria. Second, we stress that anyone who threatens to take the battle to the [southern] suburbs and consequently incite sectarian strife is an agent of the Israeli Mossad.”

Cabinet makes judicial appointments
October 11, 2012/By Nafez Kawas The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Cabinet acted Wednesday on the long-standing issue of administrative appointments after more than a year of political bickering between its parties, making several judicial appointments.
Convening under President Michel Sleiman, the Cabinet appointed Judge Jean Fahd as the head of the Higher Judicial Council, a post that has been vacant for nearly two years.
Judge Hatem Madi became the general prosecutor, replacing Judge Saeed Mirza, who retired on July 30. Madi is to retire after eight months. Fawzi Khamis was appointed a public prosecutor at the Court of Accounts and Marwan Abboud as the head of the Higher Disciplinary Committee. Ghassan Sarhal became a member of the committee. Ali Ahmar was appointed a general inspector at the Department of Central Inspection. Some ministers, including Energy Minister Gebran Bassil, Youth and Sports Minister Faisal Karami and Minister of State Marwan Khaireddine, objected that they had not been informed of the appointments ahead of time, complaining that they heard the names from media outlets. However, the three ministers did not oppose the appointees. Mikati will chair a Cabinet session Tuesday at the Grand Serail.

Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Oct. 11, 2012
October 11, 2012/The Daily Star
Following are summaries of some of the main stories in a selection of Lebanese newspapers Thursday. The Daily Star cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports.
Al-Mustaqbal
Judicial discussions about measures against Shaaban
Union “snowball" v.s. government
Signs of escalation toward more demonstrations and sit-ins emerged Wednesday during the showdown between the Union Coordination Committee [a coalition of private and public school teachers and public employees] and the government against the backdrop of the Cabinet’s in its dealing with all social issues as well as its delay in implementing pay raises.
Meanwhile, the Samaha-Mamlouk case remained in the spotlight.
Detainee [Michel] Samaha was once again interrogated, this time over voice recordings between him and Syrian President Bashar Assad’s adviser Bouthaina Shaaban before, during and after the transfer of explosives [to Lebanon from Syria] on Aug. 7.
Sources close to the probe said that in light of Samaha’s latest testimony, legal action could be taken against Shaaban, thus she will likely join fellow citizen Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk and his assistant Col. Adnan and Samaha in the [terror] case.
Ad-Diyar
Syrian students clash with fundamentalists, trouble at the Lebanese University
Disputes escalate at university and confrontation likely between [Assad] supporters and fundamentalists
It seems that the Lebanese University will become a battleground between pro- and anti-Assad regime students and at the same time between student supporters of the Syrian regime and Muslim fundamentalists and Salafists.
Thousands of Lebanese students from various [political] parties, particularly Amal and Hezbollah, attend the Lebanese University, in addition to a few thousand Syrian students who are split between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime.
Information made available to Ad-Diyar confirmed that several confrontations had taken place between “loyalist” Syrian students and Muslim fundamentalists, but that Amal and Hezbollah did not take part in the disputes.
Al-Joumhouria
Siniora warns of Hezbollah involvement in Syria crisis
March 14 [asks]: where is he [Nasrallah] taking his sect and country?
Wednesday was chocked with social, political and security issues: the elections law, the Samaha case and the union strike which threatened to besiege the Grand Serail and paralyze the country.
In parallel, political circles will turn their eyes Thursday to an 8 p.m. interview with Hezbollah secretary general Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah on Al-Manar television.
Nasrallah will talk about the latest developments and the issue of a reconnaissance jet which hovered over Gaza and which the Israeli army said it had shot down Saturday.
All eyes will also be turned to head of the Change and Reform Bloc MP Michel Aoun, who will appear on Marcel Ghanem’s LBCI’s talk show at 9:30 p.m. Thursday.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora underlined the “gravity of Hezbollah’s involvement in the ongoing military conflict in Syria and its support of one group against the other under the title ‘jihadist duty.’”
For its part, the March 14 coalition warned in a statement following its weekly meeting Wednesday of the “serious problem” now facing Lebanon after Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syria crisis.
A high-ranking March 14 official, in remarks to Al-Joumhouria, asked: "Where does Hezbollah want to take its sect and the entire country? Why is [Hezbollah] opening the door to expose its sect, the country and all the Lebanese?”
Al-Akhbar
Judicial appointments please Change and Reform [bloc], progress in [naming] members to oil authority
The Cabinet finally made new judicial appointments Wednesday to be followed by administrative appointments successively after reaching political consensus, most notably naming members to the body governing the oil and gas sector.
Regarding parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Najib Mikati joined others in supporting the so-called Fouad Butros electoral law.
Following sharp disputes that distanced the components of the government for a long time, the Cabinet filled Wednesday vacancies for judicial offices that pleased [MP Michel Aoun’s] Change and Reform bloc.
Information made available to Al-Akhbar indicates headway has been made in the appointments of a president and members to the oil authority.

8 Syrians die in attack on bus at Lebanon border: Syria TV
October 11, 2012/Daily Star
DAMASCUS: Eight people were killed on Thursday in an attack by "armed terrorists" on a bus transporting Syrian workers at the Lebanon border, Syrian state television said.
The channel said another eight people were wounded in the attack. The regime uses the term "armed terrorists" for rebels ranged against President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war.

Turkey's army on high state of readiness, first step for Syria no-fly zone
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 11, 2012/War tensions over Syria continued to spiral early Thursday, Oct. 11, when Turkey’s armed forces were placed on a state of readiness and its chief of staff pledged stronger response to any hostile act by Syria, A high-placed US source confirmed to debkafile that Turkey had, by forcing a Syrian civilian Airbus A320 plane en route from Moscow to Damascus to land in Ankara and declaring Syrian airspace “unsafe,” taken the first step toward creating a no-fly zone over Syria. Early Thursday, Moscow responded with a demand from Ankara for clarifications claiming that 17 Russians were aboard the intercepted flight. Turkey had reported 37 passengers on the plane without specifying their nationalities. The intercepted Airbus was released overnight after a part of its cargo, described as military in nature, was impounded. In another sign that Syrian crisis was reaching a new and dangerous level, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta referred in Brussels, for the third time in 24 hours, to the threat of chemical warfare. He said US troops had set up a headquarters in Jordan to help monitor chemical and biological weapons sites in Syria. debkafile had previously reported that similar headquarters were already present in Turkey and Israel. Our sources note that, just as Turkish cross-border artillery exchanges with Syria since last week have been carving out, day by day, a 10-kilometer buffer strip on Syrian land, so too Ankara has begun the process of creating a no-fly zone in Syrian air space. It is because of this initiative, that American military officials have begun citing Bashar Assad’s standing threat to resort to chemical warfare in the face of outside military intervention in the Syrian conflict. They suggest that the Syrian ruler may judge the peril to his regime on a par with the 2011 Western-Arab intervention in Libya which caused Muammar Qaddafi’s downfall. Assad and Iran, perhaps, too, are unlikely to sit still and let this happen. Wednesday night, Oct. 10, debkafile carried its first report on Turkey’s interception of the Syrian flight.

Russia: Iran won't use nuclear weapon against Israel
Moran Azulay Published: 10.11.12/yneynews/Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov tells Knesset Speaker Rivlin that given Israel's Arab and Muslim populations it is unlikely Iran would attack Israel .Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin on Thursday that Moscow does not believe Iran will use a nuclear weapon against Israel.
"Thus far it has not been proven with certainty that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon," Lavrov said in Moscow. "Given Israel's demographic makeup which includes millions of Arabs and Muslims, the Islamic Republic will not attack Israel," he explained. Rivlin said in response that Russia is the only country that can stop Iran's nuclear program without the use of sanctions.
Meanwhile, the Iranian terror threat is causing concern in the US. New York City's police commissioner said Wednesday that a potential retaliatory attack on New York City by Iran is an ongoing concern for the NYPD. According to the New York Post, Kelly said that a possible conflict between Iran and Israel was of concern to the law enforcement agency due to the city's large Jewish population.
"We’ve been concerned about Iran for a while, and I think the history of those events throughout the world since January give us cause for concern," he said.

IRGC: Drone photographed Dimona reactor
Roni Shaked Published: 10.11.12/ynetnews
Al-Arabiya quotes sources in Iran's Revolutionary Guards saying that drone was launched by Iran and completed its mission. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming that the drone that infiltrated Israeli airspace over the weekend completed its mission and photographed the Dimona reactor, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Thursday. "The unmanned aircraft managed to photograph the Israeli atomic reactor in Dimona in its smallest details," Al-Arabiya's senior correspondent Najat Mohammed Ali said. Considered a reliable reporter, Ali said he received information from high-ranking sources in the IRGC according to which Iran had launched the drone. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's official TV station Al Manar announced that Hassan Nasrallah will give an address on Thursday evening and will provide details on the drone. Sources in the Arab press said that Nasrallah may announce that Hezbollah launched the drone in cooperation with Iran.

Suspects in Benghazi consulate attack had direct Al Qaeda ties - Source
By Abdul Sattar Hatita/Askarq Alawsat
Tripoli, Asharq Al-Awsat – Sources close to the Obama administration have revealed that US security authorities have complained about a lack of cooperation from the Egyptian and Libyan authorities regarding the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi which resulted in the death of US ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, and three other embassy staff. Whilst sources close to the FBI investigation into the attack also informed Asharq Al-Awsat that primary evidence in the case has been lost or compromised after the Libyan authorities failed to secure the scene of the crime over a period of two weeks.
The attack on the US consulate in Benghazi occurred following widespread protests against an American-made movie insulting Prophet Muhammad. Libyan authorities arrested 8 suspects in connection with the attack, whilst interviewing dozens more. Responding to US complaints that the scene of the crime had been compromised, a Libyan security official responsible for collecting evidence in the Benghazi attack stressed “this is the manner of our investigations, we did what we had to [in terms of securing the scene]” adding “we do not follow the American way [of investigation].”
Sources close to the FBI investigation into the Benghazi attack informed Asharq Al-Awsat that this is focusing on three suspects with alleged ties to the Al Qaeda terrorist network.
The first of the three suspects is known as “Juma”, a resident of the Libyan port city of Derna. He is reportedly a leading member of the Libyan Islamist “Ansar al-Sharia” militia that advocates the implementation of Islamic Sharia law across the country. This suspect is also reportedly a former detainee of Guantanamo Bay and is believed to have tried to contact Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. He disappeared from Derna just days after the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.
The second suspect is known as “Bu Kitf”, a former inmate of Gaddafi’s prisons and a leading member of the “17 February” battalion, which was responsible for providing security to the US consulate.
The third suspect is known as “Abu Ahmed”, also a former prison inmate released following the Egyptian revolution and the ouster of the Mubarak regime. The Americans believe that the Egyptian national sent a message to Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri last July asking permission to form an Al Qaeda branch in Egypt.
The scene of the crime at the US consulate in Benghazi was left unguarded following the attack until the arrival of American investigators in the country last week. This means that any evidence uncovered by the FBI investigation team will likely be compromised.
The FBI team is reportedly made up of between 20 and 25 agents, in addition to around 10 “Delta Force” soldiers providing security. The FBI team had been in Tripoli for a number of weeks waiting for access to the Benghazi consulate. They were finally able to examine the scene of the crime, which resulted in the deaths of 4 American citizens, last Thursday. They visited all the relevant locations in Benghazi connected to the attack, but the FBI refused to say what, if anything, its investigators had uncovered.
An informed source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the FBI investigators asked about “Bu Kitf”, saying “when questions were asked about By Kitf in Benghazi, they were informed that he was not present in the city. When they [the FBI team] asked for his telephone number to talk to him and hear what he had to say about the attack, they were informed that he had traveled outside of the country, perhaps to Tunisia.” The source also revealed that not much is known about the third suspect, an Egyptian national known only as Abu Ahmed, other than that he was released from prison following the Egyptian revolution. There is information that he sent a message to Ayman al-Zawahiri last July, asking for the Al Qaeda leader’s blessing to form an Al Qaeda branch in Egypt.
The source also revealed that the Egyptian authorities had failed to provide any information or cooperation with the Americans regarding this suspect. The Egyptian authorities failed to respond to an Asharq Al-Awsat request for comment on this issue. For their part, jihadist sources in Cairo played down the importance and status of Abu Ahmed, adding “he is probably not present in Egypt at this time. “
Speaking exclusively to Asharq Al-Awsat from Washington yesterday, Barak Barfi, research fellow at the New America Foundation, stressed that “there was a significant failure in American security.”
He added “I think that the Americans believe that Abu Ahmed is responsible for the explosion at the Benghazi consulate…with the participation of Libyans from the Ansar al-Sharia group.”
He stressed “this is why they are disappointed regarding the extent of the cooperation of the Tripoli and Cairo authorities.”
Barfi also told Asharq Al-Awsat “the Americans are afraid of the new situation in the region, particularly following the revolutions that brought Islamist trends to power. They are facing two problems. Firstly, they must deal with the Libyan government at a time when this government is weak and does not have the capability to carry out this investigation, not to mention protect the investigation team itself.”
He stressed that the Libyan authorities inability to protect the investigation team was the reason that the FBI team remained in Tripoli until US Special Forces troops could be dispatched to provide security.

Al-Maliki: A substitute for al-Assad in the region!
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
The visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister to Russia - and the announcement of a huge arms deal acquired by Baghdad from Moscow - poses a lot of questions and merits serious contemplation. Here we must take into account the strategic options available, the timing of the deal, and the game of balances in the region, especially regarding what is happening in Syria.
Clearly Mr. Nouri al-Maliki is trying to liaise with several incompatible forces at the same time, through alliances with Tehran, Washington and Moscow. No one has ever succeeded in doing this in our region because it is ultimately more trouble than it is worth. It is suffice to recall how the Turkish Foreign Minister’s “zero problems” approach has failed, whereby Ankara now finds itself submerged in the region’s problems. This is not because of Turkish politics, but because the problems of the region will follow you even if you decide to ignore them, and they will overwhelm you if you can only deal with them in a fragile manner. Hence, we see the dangerous repercussions of al-Maliki’s visit to Moscow and his announcement of a huge military deal. The full reconstruction of the Iraqi army, for example, will not be achieved by buying Russian arms, especially since there is already a US program underway to complete this. It is normal, politically speaking, in the case of Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, for there to be an integrated process of arming the Iraqi forces via both American and European weapons. There might even be Russian involvement, but not to the tune of more than $4 billion! Iraq today is not supposed to be an isolated regime, and it is known that in our region the biggest customers of Russian weaponry are either isolated Arab regimes, or those that want to undermine America and Europe in search of a political exchange.
This leads us to the following: If Iraq wants to be an active member of the Arab world, and a supporter of democracy and stability, then why the deal now with Moscow, which has disabled all solutions to the Syrian crisis through the Security Council, especially as al-Maliki claims that he supports neither al-Assad nor the Syrian opposition? Why the military deal now with Moscow when it is better for Iraq politically to strike a deal with America or Europe, especially with the financial situation in the West, not to mention the US presidential elections? All this tells us that al-Maliki wants to be a substitute for al-Assad, and he is presently reassuring Moscow that there are still those in the region who will buy Russian weapons.
Iraq is doing what it is doing simply to provide the Russians with an alternative to the al-Assad regime that does not carry the political baggage of what is happening to the unarmed Syrians, and is not isolated in the Arab world. This shows that al-Maliki wants to take the place of al-Assad in the region, but in an amended – or shall we say – distorted version. Otherwise why else would al-Maliki try to liaise with Tehran, Washington and Moscow, and still hope to have special relations with his Arab neighbors?
When I say that al-Maliki wants to be a substitute for al-Assad in the region, it is worthwhile to note the volume of Iraqi statements about the need for Iraqi openness with Moscow in order to “combat terrorism”, and this in itself is akin to an alarm bell. Russia has been repeating the phrase “combat terrorism” since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, whilst limiting its definition of “terrorism” to the Sunnis. Now the al-Maliki government is talking about cooperating with the Russians in order to “combat terrorism”. Does this matter require a great deal of thought to realize that al-Maliki wants to be a substitute for al-Assad in the region, to become the new protector of minorities and the successor to his slogans?

On the waiting list
By Abdullah Al-Otaibi/Asharq Alawsat
Everything that is happening in the Arab region is being put on the waiting list. Everything and everyone on said list has their own objectives, means, mechanisms and styles. These can differ markedly, yet the “wait” currently prevails over all dreams and aspirations in the Arab world.
Arab states across the region are on the waiting list for development, modernization and growth - whether politically, culturally or economically. Arab societies are on the waiting list to achieve their dreams of justice, equality, prosperity and happiness. Finally, the Arab citizen is on the waiting list for salvation, a goal he has often sought to fulfill with his spirit and passion, rather than his mind or intellect. The details differ between one country, society or individual to another, yet they all share the same element of “waiting”. Yes, everybody are waiting, but only a few are working hard at the same time and striving to achieve something worthwhile. The majority are doing nothing; perhaps they enjoy waiting, or they are satisfied with what they have.
The Arab Spring states are on the waiting list for stability, for the restoration of the state's prestige, and for the establishment of security; this is all taking place in the midst of internal, regional and international disputes. Everyone wants to gain a foothold in their country’s future whereby they can look after their own interests. Some operate in such a manner overtly, whilst others are working underground, under a highly fertile soil where chaos and tension prevails. They realize that by the very nature of current events, at such a moment in the history of our nations and societies when the compass has gone missing, influence comes easily and in an affordable manner.
Arab societies, in their wait to fulfill their dreams, have been down every avenue except that of advancing their awareness and culture, rather than simply accumulating information, or spreading tolerance instead of mere coexistence. The information explosion that has come about as a result of technological advancement may add to the intellects of some, yet it is a destructive force for many. Therefore, these societies on the waiting list can’t get past their different ideologies and slogans. This is because the human voice is still louder and stronger than the power of thought, and the collective mindset is more prevalent than individual intellect. It is for this reason that we often see a mob mentality in these societies. Great aspirations of justice, equality, prosperity and happiness can only be achieved after a long process of suffering and fatigue. No society can expect them to come about via a single stroke of luck, or without the fundamental values that can transform such aspirations into achievable plans and genuine, accomplished projects.
An Arab individual is no more fortunate than his state or society. He lives in a forest of mazes; a backwards environment with no view on the horizon. The Arab citizen is immersed in the thick mud of sectarianism and lacks a greater awareness. There is no glimmer of hope for tolerance, let alone putting an end to racism and tribalism. The Arab individual also lacks an advanced education, social security or even employment to ensure his basic needs.
The entire region is anticipating the results of the US elections. We are waiting for America’s stance towards the Iranian nuclear project, towards the Wali al-Faqih [Guardian of the Jurists] state and its hostile policies in the region, and the subsequent ramifications this will have in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and some Gulf states. The real tragedy is that the Syrian crisis, with its countless deaths, injuries and displacements, is also on the waiting list. Many people are hopeful of a change in America's slack policies towards the suffering of the Syrian people after the election result. In fact the entire region - regardless of whether the Democrat President Barack Obama or the Republican candidate Mitt Romney wins - is waiting for a change in US policy towards the Arab world in general. Yet despite recognizing America's importance, its international weight and its ability to intervene in certain issues in a manner that surpasses international organizations, the post-election US will not provide a magic solution for all the region’s historical ills and geographic complexities.
The Arab civil movements and forces hoping for progress and prosperity - which have been on the waiting list for quite some time - are now facing an even longer delay these days. This is because fundamentalist groups have stepped in to fulfill their longstanding dreams of rising to power. These groups, whilst not dominating all joints of power in the Arab Spring states at this time, are now being forced to compromise between their deeply-rooted ideologies and the Machiavellian pragmatism necessitated by politics. Some of them have pursued their ideologies too far, whilst on the other hand, others have gone too far in their political opportunism. Everyone is watching these conflicting priorities of the fundamentalists, who prevail on the scene and dominate pubic debates at the expense of the civil movements.
Yet fundamentalism, by its very nature, is also on the waiting list. We are awaiting new results on the ground. For example, researchers are highlighting a new explosion in radical interpretations of religious texts. The result of an election is considered a victory for the “true believers”, the victory of some candidate is seen as the empowerment of the “most virtuous”, and the domination of a certain political movement in a certain county is interpreted as the fulfillment of God's promise and the expansion of His rule. Despite the fact that these interpretations are absurd, this phenomenon suggests that we are at the beginning of a new fundamentalist era in the Arab world. It seems we will encounter a new phase of ideological domination carried out by violent factions of political Islam, and this phase will not be short by any means. Everyone in the Arab region is on the waiting list to learn something. New ideological politicians in the Arab Spring states are learning how to manage their countries and understand the language of politics. On the other hand, the civil trends are learning about religious terms and their denotations, and when they are used in politics. Until both sides learn from one another, the dream of a modern state will remain on the waiting list forever. The wait in the region can be evaluated in the short, medium or long term. There is a waiting list at the level of the state, the society and the individual, and there are also ideological and cultural factors to take into account. The purpose of this article is not to display an overt sentiment of pessimism or optimism; rather it is an attempt to highlight aspects of the Arab region that have been neglected by others. If any corner of the scene is left in darkness, then the mirror cannot reflect the whole picture.

Questions remain over downed drone in Israel
Justin Salhani, October 11, 2012/Now Lebanon
An Israeli helicopter looks for remnants of a downed drone. It is still unclear if the UAV downed by Israel on October 6 came from Iran or Hezbollah. (AFP photo)
When an unidentified, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was shot down over Israeli air space on October 6, the Israeli government was quick to point the finger at Hezbollah, saying the drone was launched from the Lebanese coastal city of Sidon. While most experts agree that Iran, Hezbollah or an affiliate is behind the launch, certain political analysts and experts on UAVs believe that some questions still remain. "To say what really is happening is difficult," said Keven Gambold, the Operations Director of Unmanned Experts, an independent team of UAV specialists.
Maps published by the Israeli press based on estimates from the Israeli military have the UAV taking off from Sidon and heading south before turning east over Gaza and flying into Israel. One Israeli media outlet also published claims, backing up the Israeli government’s claim, that the drone was Iranian.
On October 8, however, the media picked up a statement by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) saying that no drone was detected crossing from Lebanon into Israel.
An anonymous commentator on UAVs who goes by the alias Drunken Predator Drone, or DPD (twitter.com/drunkenpredator), told NOW that "UNIFIL's radar systems are not state-of-the-art, but they are good enough to support that claim."
Gambold and DPD agree that according to the size and "safe assumption" of it being exported from Iran, the UAV is most likely a model from the Ababil series. The Ababil is a standard reconnaissance drone that Gambold says has the "option to add an explosive payload," but that there is usually little interest in doing so.
DPD says the Ababils can travel a distance of around 250km from their launch site (which just happens to be almost the exact, direct distance between Sidon and Yatir Forest, where the UAV was taken down). Gambold said that physics makes it "very difficult" for an Ababil to travel further than 200km (though 60-120km is more reasonable) "if you want to beam video back" to the UAV's operator, though if the drone’s operator has no desire to monitor "in real time," the autopilot could fly anywhere. "Range doesn't matter," he said.
With these figures and the statement from UNIFIL, DPD believes a launch from Sidon can be ruled out.
"For my money, the plausible explanation is that Hezbollah or an affiliate launched (the UAV) from either a safe location in the Sinai, or from a friendly vessel somewhere just outside the reach of Israeli radar in the Mediterranean," said DPD. "Launching such a little aircraft from Lebanon comes close to defying the laws of physics."
For Gambold, the possibility of a launch by Iran or an affiliate from the Sinai is not out of the realm of reason, especially considering the large and mostly un-policed desert there.
However, Emile Hokayem of the International Institute of Strategic Studies said that Hezbollah or Iran having an "airstrip or drone base in the Sinai would be a huge matter."
Mohamed Fadel Fahmy, an Egyptian author and journalist specialized in the Sinai, also ruled out the possibility of a Sinai launch.
"Militant groups in Sinai are armed to the teeth, but not with drones," said Fahmy, adding that the recent increase of Egyptian naval presence in the area would counter the possibility of foreign agents operating out of it.
On the possibility that a small vessel in the Mediterranean Sea launched the UAV, DPD explained: "From Gaza to Yatir Forest is about 75km; sovereign Israeli waters end 22km from the shore. So if a Hezbollah-affiliated group launched the drone just outside Israeli waters and it were tracked from the Mediterranean over to the Yatir Forest, it would travel almost exactly 100km. Well within the range for Ababils."
Gambold, on the other hand, said that such a feat would be difficult, though not impossible. UAVs, he noted, are often controlled by pointing a "very specific antenna" at it, requiring a level surface, not something that moves like the deck of a boat.
However, because Iranian vessels are thought to operate in the Mediterranean, it is not impossible that the drone could have been launched from an Iranian boat.
Though nobody knows for sure from where the UAV was launched, Gambold believes there is an easy answer as to why Israel did not shoot it down immediately.
"The Iron Dome defense system didn't shoot it down because it was not designed to," Gambold said, adding that the purpose for the Iron Dome is to determine whether or not something is a threat to populated centers. The Israeli Air Force said they tracked the UAV, and when they saw that it lacked explosives they took it down.
The question still remains as to why Iran or Hezbollah would have sent the UAV.
A representative from the Hezbollah said the Party of God has not commented on such topics for over a year now, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is expected to address the topic during his speech tonight.
"I could see a scenario where an autonomous UAV was launched just to keep Israel on its toes." said Gambold, though he added it was a "lame way to go."
"It could be Iran doing a tit-for-tat through Hezbollah," said Hokayem of IISS, adding that Iran might have wanted to say, "Israel kills our scientists and gathers intel on us with all this technology. We too can deploy our technology over your heads."
“Maybe Israel did it themselves,” Gambold said, partially in jest. “Truth is often stranger than fiction.”