LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 08/12

Bible Quotation for today/The faithful and Wise Slave
Matthew 24/45-51: "‘Who then is the faithful and wise slave, whom his master has put in charge of his household, to give the other slaves their allowance of food at the proper time?
Blessed is that slave whom his master will find at work when he arrives. Truly I tell you, he will put that one in charge of all his possessions. But if that wicked slave says to himself, "My master is delayed", and he begins to beat his fellow-slaves, and eats and drinks with drunkards, the master of that slave will come on a day when he does not expect him and at an hour that he does not know. He will cut him in pieces and put him with the hypocrites, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Iranian UAV: Warning from above Israel/Alex Fishman/ynetnews/October 07/12
The Iranian Rial bonfire/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 07/12
Iran's real problem is political/By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/October 07/12
Military Implications of the Syria-Turkey Border Incident/Jeffrey White, Soner Cagaptay, and Andrew J. Tabler/Washington Institute/October 07/12

IAF shoots down suspicious aircraft in northern Negev
Yoav Zitun Published: 10.06.12/ynetnews
Unmanned, unidentified aircraft infiltrates Israeli airspace Saturday morning; IAF fighter jets intercept aircraft shortly thereafter; IDF: Aircraft did not depart from Gaza or carry explosives .
The Israeli Air Force intercepted an unmanned and unidentified aircraft that entered Israel's airspace early Saturday morning.
The aircraft was shot down by two F-16I jets in an open area in the northern Negev region, and its remains were scattered in an open area in the south Mount Hebron region. Army forces were alerted to the scene in order to collect the remains in hopes of identifying the drone, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit said.
According to an initial investigation, the drone penetrated Israeli airspace at around 10 am after flying over the Mediterranean Sea, near Gaza. The Air Force detected the drone as it approached Gaza's coastline, and F-16I fighter jets were scrambled from the Ramon army base in the Negev to shoot it down.The aircraft "was identified penetrating Israeli airspace this morning, and was intercepted by the IAF at approximately 10 am," the military said in a statement.
The IDF estimates that the unmanned aircraft did not depart from the Gaza Strip. The aircraft's country of origin has not yet been confirmed. It flew over Israel for less than 30 minutes and did not carry any explosives on it.
IDF Spokesperson Yoav Mordechai said that the aircraft was monitored and accompanied by fighter planes throughout its flight and that it was possible to shoot it down at any stage, "however, it was decided to intercept the aircraft near southern Mount Hebron for safety reasons."
Defense Minister Ehud Barak has congratulated the military in a statement.
We view this incident of attempting to enter Israeli airspace very severely and we will consider our response later," he said.
According to Palestinian Ma'an news agency, the aircraft is an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle that departed from the Gaza Strip and managed to fly over several Israeli towns and bases in southern Israel, including the city of Beersheba.
A loud explosion was heard in the area after the aircraft was shot down. The UAV's remains fell in an open area in southern Mount Hebron.
Large IDF forces, including fighter planes and the army's bomb squad unit were called to the scene shortly after the aircraft was downed.
Residents, who live nearby reported of unusually loud explosion noises. "We were eating breakfast and suddenly heard the explosion," Yaffa Solomon, a resident of Meitar said.
"Only later did I understand what happened. I can’t believe this is happening. The region is just flaring up," she said.
In August 2006, toward the end of the Second Lebanon War, the IAF intercepted two Hezbollah "Ababil" drones. One drone was downed over the sea, in Lebanese airspace, while the other was shot down north of Haifa.
On Saturday, the ministry of interior in the Hamas-run government in the Gaza Strip conducted a field drill for all its security services, including police and national security, the Ma'an news agency reported.
A ministry statement said the maneuver was part of a "normal drill" for all the ministry’s security services and in line with the ministry’s efforts to maintain security and stability in the Gaza Strip.
*Elior Levy, AP contributed to this report

Iranian media: Drone infiltration exposes Israeli weakness
Dudi Cohen Published: 10.07.12/ynetnews
Tehran officials yet to comment on infiltration of drone to Israeli airspace but local media use incident to mock Israel; say it shows Iron Dome's ineffectiveness. Jeering tone: Reporting of the infiltration of a drone into Israeli airspace, Iranian news websites on Sunday quoted Israeli reports suggesting the unmanned aircraft may have been sent by Hezbollah with Iran's help. The reports said that the infiltration indicates a failure in Israel's air defenses. Tehran officials have yet to comment on the incident. A report by Javan Online, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, said that the incident was a failure on the part of the Iron Dome – Israel's anti-missile system which is usually deployed in the Gaza vicinity area. The report noted that the Negev region, where the drone was downed, is very important to Israel "for that is where it digs uranium, in the Arad and Sodom area." This likely refers to reports that the company headed by former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan is digging for the radioactive metallic element in the Negev.

Lebanese TV channel: Hezbollah behind drone mission
Elior Levy Published: 10.07.12/ynetnews
Hezbollah-affiliated channel Al-Mayadeen claims drone that infiltrated Israeli airspace belongs to Shiite terror group. Meanwhile, Islamic Jihad denies involvement
A Lebanese TV channel affiliated with Hezbollah reported Sunday that the drone that infiltrated Israeli airspace on Saturday belonged to the Shiite terror group.
According to a report in Al-Mayadeen, "the drone traveled 100 kilometers deep inside Israel and sparked tensions." Hezbollah has yet to comment on the report.
Al-Mayadeen is the same channel that aired the video documenting the abduction of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. It is considered a rising force in Arab media and serves as an alternative to Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya. Its founder, Tunisian journalist Ghassan bin Jiddo, is considered closely tied to Hezbollah and was the only journalist to interview Hassan Nasrallah during the Second Lebanon War.
On Saturday, most Arab media reports pointed to the Islamic Jihad as the likely force behind the launching of the drone. A senior official in the terror group denied any connection to the incident on Sunday.
However, a source close to the Islamic Jihad did not rule out the possibility that Gaza terror groups own a drone similar to the one Israel downed and noted they have the necessary experience on how to use it "for self-defense purposes in a conflict with Israel." Meanwhile, defense officials estimate that the drone started its mission in Lebanon, most likely to gather intelligence and check the IDF's reaction. It is possible it was headed to the Dimona reactor. Operating a drone by remote control from such a long distance requires advanced capabilities, which Israel was not aware Hezbollah had acquired.
Israel is still considering its response.
*Yonatan Gonen contributed to this report

UAV intrusion: Iranian act of belligerence against US and Israeli military targets
http://www.debka.com/article/22416/UAV-intrusion-Iranian-act-of-belligerence-against-US-and-Israeli-military-targets
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 7, 2012/However Israeli official spokesmen present the incident of Saturday, Oct. 6, the penetration of Israeli air space by a large unmanned helicopter should not have been allowed to happen. The surprise interloper should have been shot down before spending nearly half an hour over southern Israel. The incident showed ID intelligence and command not up to handling enemy surprises, even after countless drills and exercises.
Four months ago, on July 20, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech, “The resistance movement will surprise Tel Aviv in any future war.”
Hizballah with Iranian backing almost certainly proved its point Saturday, very likely in collaboration with its Palestinian ally, Hamas.
Our intelligence experts note that before the Israeli Air Force fighters scrambled to shoot it down, the intruder would have had enough time for its surveillance equipment to beam to its Iranian control station, wherever it was, the electronic signatures of US and Israeli military installations within its purview in the South and the Negev.
This was a major lapse.
The alien aircraft should have been intercepted the moment it flew in from the Mediterranean and entered the skies of the Gaza Strip. By then, it was clearly seen heading toward Beersheba. Had there been weapons aboard, the incident would have ended in a worse disaster, reminding Israel of its worst nightmare: an Iranian plane flying over with a nuclear bomb.
As it is, the sophisticated aerial surveillance vehicle was able to cover the space over the IDF’s southern facilities, the town of Beersheba and the Israeli Air Force base at Nevatim before it was shot down over the Yatir forest south of Mt. Hebron. Its primary missions may have been to record the electronic signatures of the Dimona nuclear reactor’s air defense systems and the American X-band radar station in the Negev, which is linked to the US X-band station in Turkey. Together, they are the “forward eyes” of the joint US-Israeli shield against Iranian ballistic missile attack.
If the intruder came to spot the gaps in that shield, it would have succeeded.
It is therefore important in this context to recall a more recent and explicit threat, this one by Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s ground forces, who said on Sept. 23 that his country was not waiting to be attacked but ready to carry out preemptive operations against the US and Israel.
The aerial overflight Saturday may well have been a preparatory step for such an attack.
Tehran would also have noted the time lapse before Israel acted: The IDF asked the Defense Minister Ehud Barak what to do instead of acting at once and Barak passed the buck to the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.
They decided initially to down helicopter by electronic means and capture it intact in an attempt to establish who sent it and study its systems. However, the Iranian controllers fought back – hence the cyber battle rocking back and forth over southern Israel for nearly half an hour - before shooting it down.
The image the IDF spokesman put out of a ball of fire in the sky was misleading. On its way down to earth, the vehicle broke up into fragments large enough to offer up important secrets to Israel’s military researchers.
On Saturday, Israel’s electronic warfare systems were fully operational and effective. However, Israel’s leaders were struck dumb and caught unawares by Iran’s audacity in springing on them an overt act of belligerence against their own and American military installations housed in the Negev. Israel officials have vowed to respond to an obvious act of war.

Warning from above
Alex Fishman Published: 10.07.12/ynetnews
Analysis: Drone carried with it Iranian message to Israel regarding any future conflict
Some entity, apparently Iran through Hezbollah or the Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, tested its technological and operational capabilities and also tested Israel's air defense capabilities. While Israel's air defense systems worked, we cannot ignore the fact that the drone, which was apparently Iranian made, was shot down a mere 30 kilometers from the Dimona reactor. This will give Nasrallah and his masters a cause for celebration.
Israel, which threatens Iran and flies regularly over Lebanon to take photos, received a warning on Saturday: We too can fly above you, take photos and reach your most sensitive sites, so don't mess with us.
Naturally, Israel is withholding information regarding the penetration of the drone into its airspace, because at this very moment professionals in Iran and Lebanon are waiting for every bit of information regarding the drone's flight and the manner in which it was shot down in order to draw operational lessons: Where are the Israeli air defense's weak spots? What are the weaknesses of the drone itself?
Meanwhile in Israel, engineers and intelligence officials are reassembling the drone. It is not every day that you get an opportunity to study a product of Iranian technology so thoroughly and see how far they have come.
Those who launched the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) will manipulate the infiltration for their own propaganda purposes, as the drone was shot down only after flying for 20 minutes over populated Israeli areas, an army base and near sensitive facilities such as the Dimona reactor. Israel is presenting the drone's interception as a show of force and an achievement. The Air Force claims it could have downed the UAV during any stage of its flight over Israel but preferred to shoot it down over a non-populated area to avoid causalities and damage.
The good news is that the system that is supposed to protect Israel's skies works. The drone was detected while it was still flying over the Mediterranean Sea, a few minutes before 10 am. Four F-16 fighter jets were scrambled to intercept the drone even before it entered Gaza's airspace.
The fighter jets' radars also detected the UAV - a significant technological feat considering the fact that drones travels at a slow speed – and later used a heat-seeking missile to down the drone, which emits less heat than other, larger aircraft.
The fact that the drone was launched on a Saturday morning is not coincidental. Its operators apparently assumed that the level of alertness is lower on Saturday, when all kinds of civilian planes and hang gliders are in the air.
The bad news is that the drone, which apparently departed from Lebanon, flew over the sea for at least three hours, and did not raise enough suspicion in Israel until it approached Gaza's coastline. This may indicate a technological or protocol problem, or perhaps a lack of alertness. In any case, the incident calls for improvements in all three areas.
The drone's interception should remind Israel's citizens of what army intelligence has known all along: The other side is constantly looking for ways to infiltrate the country, for weak points, and it is preparing what Nasrallah referred to as a "surprise weapon" – a weapon that will infiltrate deeper into Israeli territory, a weapon that is meant to rattle the State of Israel's nerves.
Now Israel will check whether Iran's drones have more advanced capabilities, such as a space-based satellite navigation system (GPS), which is more accurate, or even a satellite communication system.
Such a drone is capable of carrying intelligence gathering apparatus or weapons systems. It can also serve as a 'suicide drone' laden with explosives, which can crash into a target such as a cruise missile.
In the next war drones will come from the north in waves, and Gaza may contribute its part as well, as Hamas is working independently to develop its own UAVs.
For now there are more questions than answers, but there is no doubt that this incident constitutes a major turning point as far as Israel's security is concerned. The Iranians sent us a message via Lebanon: You will be attacked not only with rockets and missiles, but with explosives-laden unmanned aircraft as well.

Iran's real problem is political
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
Last Monday, Iran’s currency, the rial, lost almost 20 per cent of its value, hitting a new low after months of decline. In December 2011, a US dollar was worth 15,000 rials. Now it is closer to 40,000 rials. To rub the salt let’s recall that, before the mullahs seized power, a dollar was worth only 70 rials.
The Iranian economy is in poor shape. Inflation is in double digits, and, each day, more than 4,000 people lose their jobs. Manufacturing output has fallen by almost half and investment levels are at their lowest in 20 years. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government has, in effect, printed money by raising liquidity from 6.5 trillion to almost 400 trillion rials; a grim picture, indeed. If asked to repay their debts to the central Bank, most Iranian banks could go bankrupt.
On Wednesday, Tehran witnessed sporadic demonstrations against the government's economic policies. The Tehran bazaar, once a focus of support for the mullahs, brought down its shutters for two days.
So, would the rising economic storm force Iran’s rulers to re-think their strategy? And is US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton right in claiming that Iran’s economic woes are due to sanctions that may persuade the Khomeinist regime to change its policies?
I do not regard economic performance as the ultimate measure of a regime’s success or failure. As long as a regime has not suffered a major defeat on the political battleground, it can weather most economic storms.
Iran’s problems are fundamentally political.
Even if we assume that the current economic crisis is caused by sanctions we must remember that those sanctions are the results of political decisions, especially with regard to the nuclear issue. Also political was Ahmadinejad’s decision to provide cash handouts, further fuelling inflation. Also, the regime has used easy credit to buy support and reward cronies. An estimated 5,000 individuals, mostly mullahs and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), account for almost half of personal loans granted by state-controlled banks. The biggest corruption cases in Iran’s history, coming to light last year, are centered on political favors to a handful of individuals.
Constant talk of war with the United States or with Israel or both, coming from a string of Iranian generals, is also political. Such talk provokes fear, persuading people to convert their savings to “strong” currencies. The decision to back the moribund al-Assad regime in Syria at the cost of billions of dollars in military aid is equally political. Also political is the decision to transform foreign policy into an instrument for making enemies abroad.
However, none of the above mentioned political decisions fully explains the Iranian crisis today.
The problem Iran faces is caused by the very nature of a regime that has led the nation into an impasse. A mixture of Western totalitarian shibboleths and pseudo-Islamic fantasies, the Khomeinist system is a peculiar beast. In it a mullah, often referred to as “Supreme Guide”, has unlimited power without responsibility while a supposedly elected President has more responsibility than power.
In such a system, the man with unlimited power and no responsibility has an interest in cultivating a macho image and fomenting a permanent atmosphere of tension and crisis. This was exactly what Mao Zedong did in Communist China until he was reined in after the collapse of the Cultural Revolution. Visiting China in 1970, I was fascinated by the efforts of a section of the leadership to rein in Mao Zedong and crush the infamous Gang of Four.
In Iran, too, every President, from Abol-Hassan Banisadr to Ahmadinejad, and including Ali Khamenei when he served as president, ended up by realizing that the system created by Ruhollah Khomeini is the source of virtually all of the country's problems.
They failed to translate that realization into concrete corrective action for two reasons.
The first is that unlike Communist China, Khomeinist Iran does not have an organized ruling party through which rival factions could settle ideological disputes. In China, the faction led by Chou En-lai and Deng Xiaoping were able to defeat the Gang of Four inside the party machine.
In Iran any such attempt leads to an open fight. This is what happened when Banisadr challenged Khomeini, and lost. Another example was the “Green” movement of 2009 in which the faction led by former Prime Minister Mir-Hussein Mussavi tried to snatch part of power from Khameneni’s faction.
Though not as intense, the fight between rival factions led by Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is also seeping into public with the latter questioning some of the regime's key policies, including that of wanton provocation against the US. During his recent visit to New York, Ahmadinejad spoke of the desirability of negotiating with the US on five separate occasions. He also admitted that he might have been wrong in denying the Holocaust. Needless to say, the Khamenei faction has retaliated by publicly castigating Ahmadinejad for sending signals to the US while also blaming him for the deepening economic crisis.
The second reason for the failure of Khomeinist factions to change the course of the regime, as happened in China, is their fear of taking the matter to the people and inviting them to arbitrate the rival visions. They know that bringing in the people would spell the end of a regime that has lost much of its legitimacy.
The Khomeinist regime cannot be reformed even if the so-called “reformist” faction, let alone a repackaged Ahmadinejad clique, temporarily gains the upper hand.
Iran’s real problem is political, not economic.

The Iranian Rial bonfire
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
The ongoing collapse of the Iranian Rial is yet to signal the eruption of what is to come in Iran, despite what some have alleged, but it does raise several questions about the reality of the Iranian political system, both internally and externally, and especially the extent to which the Rial bonfire affects the Iranian central nervous system (merchants and citizens) and Iranian interests abroad (agents of Tehran).
Of course, as expected, the Iranian regime will go to any length to stop the collapse of its currency, and thus thwart the opportunity for any internal political tremors, but this poses several questions, as I mentioned before, about Iran’s ability to deal with what’s coming to it. Will Iran continue to support the doomed regime of the tyrant of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad? It has been revealed that Tehran has provided nearly US$ 10 billion to al-Assad in terms of finance, equipment and even personnel. Hezbollah, a party that is funded by Iran, has also provided its fighters to support al-Assad, so can Tehran continue this funding in spite of the internal discontent, which poses a genuine risk to the political system there? Or will the current situation prompt Tehran to wonder – not necessarily rationally but pragmatically – why it should rush to finance a regime that will inevitably fall in Syria, especially at a time when Iranian internal conditions pose such a serious danger?
The other threat to Iran today is venturing into the “red zone” [with regards to its nuclear program], as illustrated by the Israeli Prime Minister, who garnered strong public opinion on the back of his speech to the UN General Assembly. Is Iran capable of facing a danger of such magnitude while its internal situation is unstable, and possibly due to explode, especially with the ongoing economic sanctions and subsequent collapse of the Iranian currency?
The story here is not about predicting the future or wishful thinking; it is about trying to figure out what Tehran is thinking these days amidst these sensitive circumstances that are undoubtedly of its own making. After all, it was only natural that prolonged tampering in the region and pursuing adventures outside Iranian territory would end up impacting upon Iran’s internal situation. As I mentioned before, the Syrian situation itself has transformed into a significant drain on Iran, economically and politically. In terms of the political drain, the simplest example is the volume of information that is now being leaked about General Qasem Soleimani’s meetings with some Iraqi leaders, specifically the Kurds. These leaks clearly show that some have begun to turn to the media, and specifically the Western media, to embarrass Iran and expose its blatant interference in Syria. Information has even begun to circulate about the pressures being faced by Qasem Soleimani himself in Iran, due to his failure to accomplish anything concrete in defense of al-Assad after 19 months!
Therefore, it is not my intention here to say that Iran has changed its stance, but rather to say: Is Iran capable of continuing its current stances, especially with regards to Syria? Is Tehran also able to emerge from the bottleneck of the “red zone” predicament that Netanyahu put forward to the UN, given its unstable internal situation? We must find an answer to these questions because this issue will entail much, at all levels, in the coming days.

Military Implications of the Syria-Turkey Border Incident
Jeffrey White, Soner Cagaptay, and Andrew J. Tabler/Washington Institute
October 5, 2012
Syria's errant mortar strike is an opportunity for Washington to support Turkey in a more aggressive approach to the ongoing crisis next door.
On October 3, Syrian military forces reportedly fired a mortar round that landed in Turkey, killing five civilians and wounding ten or more in the border town of Akcakale. In retaliation, Turkish artillery shelled the locations from which Syrian forces had fired, apparently using counterbattery radar. The Turks renewed shelling of cross-border targets the next day, and parliament authorized the use of military force in Syria. Some Syrian soldiers are said to have been killed.
This is the most serious incident along Syria's borders since the revolution began in March 2011. It has potentially significant military implications, including escalation into a broader Turkish-Syrian conflict, creation of a de facto buffer zone in northern Syria, and further weakening of Bashar al-Assad's forces relative to the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). Damascus will likely back down and attempt to avoid a fight with Turkey, essentially leaving Ankara with the task of controlling escalation. Whatever the case, this development adds additional weight to arguments for a greater U.S. and allied role in ending the regime and the war in Syria.
BACKGROUND
Fighting between regime and FSA forces in Syria's northern Raqqa province has been escalating in recent weeks. The most dramatic event was the September 19 seizure of the border crossing at Tal Abyad. Regime forces have been unable to retake the crossing, and clashes continue in the province. The regime has relied heavily on airpower and artillery to strike FSA elements and areas where they are located, creating the potential for a serious border incident. The shell that hit Turkey and killed its citizens was probably an overshoot by regime units targeting Tal Abyad rather than a deliberate action against Akcakale.
SYRIA'S MILITARY OPTIONS
Syria has very few military options for responding to Turkey's action, especially in the short term. Regime ground forces in the area are limited to elements of one overstretched division, probably supported by shabbiha irregulars and local militias. Its ability to reinforce these elements is also quite limited. Regime combat formations are heavily committed to the internal war, and any reorientation for an external conflict would weaken their capacity in this vital contest. In addition, the area in question is at the outer range of Syria's surface-to-air missile systems, and even conventional antiaircraft artillery is probably limited in number and thinly deployed. Employing the Syrian air force against the Turks would be a major escalation, inviting a response from the more capable Turkish air force.
In light of these factors, the regime will likely eschew retaliation and instead focus on preventing further border incidents. According to Turkish sources, Damascus has admitted responsibility for the stray shelling and promised an investigation, and there has been no further cross-border fire by forces inside Syria.
TURKEY'S MILITARY OPTIONS
Ankara has built up its forces along the border since the June 22 downing of a Turkish reconnaissance aircraft by Syrian air defenses. In addition to deploying armor, artillery, and air-defense units, it has established rules of engagement allowing its forces to engage perceived threats from across the border. Turkey has indicated that its response to the October 3 incident was in accordance with these rules.
The previous buildup and parliament's authorization to conduct operations inside Syria puts Turkey in a relatively strong position militarily. Its actions pave the way for further military moves if necessary, including additional artillery strikes. Turkey could also decide to more aggressively enforce its rules of engagement for dealing with threats from Syria, limiting the ability of Assad's forces to operate close to the border.
For now, Ankara has made clear publicly that its actions are for deterrent purposes, and that it has no intention of going to war. And from a military standpoint, its approach has been restrained so far.
IMPLICATIONS
Limiting factors aside, the incident holds some potential for escalation. Turkey has already ratcheted up its political and diplomatic response, calling for NATO consultations, reportedly mobilizing forces, and threatening additional action if Syria conducts more attacks. And Assad's likely efforts to exercise greater control over his border forces may not succeed given the nature of the regime's fight with the opposition.
Although this is the most serious border clash thus far, incidents have also occurred on Syria's other frontiers, including deliberate shelling of areas inside Lebanon, exchanges of fire along the Jordanian border, and accidental firing into Israeli territory on the Golan Heights. As the regime intensifies its efforts to defeat the opposition and makes greater use of airpower and artillery, such incidents could grow in number and seriousness.
The key issue is what Ankara will do next. The shelling of Syrian targets for a second day indicates that Turkey wants to drive home the seriousness of any Syrian military action that reaches into its territory. And if reports of Turkish mobilization are true, they suggest broader intent, perhaps including enforcement of a buffer zone inside Syria. This would be a major psychological blow to the regime and its supporters and a significant boost for the rebels. Turkey's assertion of power across the border could transform what is now disputed territory in northern Syria into liberated territory; an opposition command could then operate from this area militarily and politically, and in relative safety.
Alternatively, regime fears of a broader Turkish response could create a de facto buffer zone even if the Turks do not explicitly establish one. That is, if Damascus becomes cautious about how it deploys and employs its forces close to the border, it would give the opposition an opportunity to strengthen and expand its hold on these areas with reduced risk.
If the Turkey-Syria crisis deepens, it could also place a greater burden on regime military resources already strained by the internal war. Any deployment of forces away from current centers of combat (e.g., Damascus and Aleppo) would weaken the regime's position in these areas and bolster the opposition. The very act of redeploying could present opportunities for armed rebels to attack exposed regime forces. In fact, a wider military crisis with Turkey could move the Syrian military closer to the breaking point -- the prospect of fighting Turkey, or even having to prepare and deploy for such a conflict, could prove too much for an already stretched and weakened force.
CONCLUSION
The latest incident is further evidence that the longer Syria's internal conflict continues, the more likely it is to become an external conflict that draws in neighbors. This risk -- together with the calamitous situation of the Syrian people, the drift toward more destructive civil war, and the threat of increasing radicalization among the rebels -- points to the need for direct or indirect intervention to topple the regime and the conflict.
Specifically, if Turkey takes a more active role by exerting control over the border area inside Syria, then the United States, its allies, and other countries interested in regional stability should all lend their support. This includes increased military, political, and humanitarian support to the opposition. For its part, Washington should provide assistance that helps defend and support areas in northern Syria where the FSA has a measure of control, and where free political and social institutions are emerging. These measures would help end the conflict, ensure direct and immediate aid for the Syrian people, and give the United States a chance to influence events after the regime falls.
**Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute. Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at the Institute. Andrew J. Tabler is a senior fellow in the Institute's Program on Arab Politics.

Report: Iran withdraws troops from Syria
Ynet and AFP Published: 10.07.12/ynetnews
Iran withdraws 275 members of covert operations unit from Syria due to economic crisis; Tehran officials estimate Bashar Assad presidency is at risk
A deepening economic crisis and bitter criticism about the cost of its involvement in Syria have taken their toll on the Iranian regime: Iran withdrew 275 troops who secretly operated in Syria, The British Sunday Times reported on Sunday.The men belong to a brigade known as Unit 400, part of Iran’s elite Quds force, which has fought alongside Bashar Assad’s security apparatus against Sunni rebels.
The withdrawal was seen as a sign of waning confidence among Iran’s Shiite leaders in Assad’s ability to survive the revolt.
Last week, the British Times reported that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was displeased with the Revolutionary Guard's Quds force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani and his dealing with the Syrian crisis.
Iran had reportedly transferred $10 billion to the Syrian regime since the beginning of the uprising 18 months ago. Officials say that Soleimani assured Khamenei that he would put an end to the crisis.
However, the British newspaper reported that Khamenei was not convinced as the rebels did not surrender. The economic crisis in Iran, spurred on by Western sanctions, also prevents it from contiuntuing to financially support Assad.
Meanwhile, Britain's Defense Minister, Philip Hammond, said in an interview to the Observer that "The world should tighten the squeeze on Iran over its "mad" nuclear plans to the point where the regime's survival is threatened by its own people"
Hammond added that there are signs of the regime beginning to "fracture" on the issue of its disputed nuclear program.

Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Oct. 7, 2012
October 07, 2012 10:10 AM The Daily Star
Lebanon's Arabic press digest.
An-Nahar
Refugees, salary scale, appointments to the forefront
Amid a climate that brought extremely cold weather to Akkar and the north Saturday and rain in some other areas, hot socioeconomic issues return this week and are expected to overshadow the electoral issue that is preoccupying the political arena.
In terms of the public sector salary scale issue, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati believes there is no need to demonstrate for, the Union Coordination Committee will take escalatory steps next Wednesday in front of the Education Ministry and march toward the Grand Serail. This move will coincide with a meeting by the General Labor Confederation to discuss the situation stemming from the issue of the salary scale and reject taxes that are planned to cover the expenses of the scale.
Lebanon has also begun facing major complications as thousands of Syrian refugees arrive to the country. Numbers have now reached over 70,000 and are expected to increase. In order to face this growing problem, Mikati along with other ministers and concerned officials will meet Monday at the Serail to discuss this issue.
Al-Mustaqbal
Samaha's computer a “precious treasure,” Shaaban is not the last straw
Two months after the Military Tribunal's commissioner, Judge Samir Sader, released an accusation against Michel Samaha and Ali Mamlouk, a new development surfaced in the case of this terror cell when Military Prosecutor Judge Sakr Sakr transferred to Investigative Judge Riyad Abu Ghida what he received from the Information Branch: an analysis of a phone call between President Bashar Assad's adviser Bouthaina Shaaban and Samaha.
Security sources told Al-Mustaqbal that Shaaban's involvement was revealed because Samaha, who owned three cellphones, recorded all his phone calls for three years. The Information Branch has asked the judiciary to allow them to release the phone call data from Samaha’s computer.
The sources said that releasing data takes time, adding that Jamil Sayyed's file was referred to Sakr once it was ready and so is the case with Shaaban's involvement.
The recordings revealed that she knew of Samaha's mission which was to transfer the explosives.
The sources also described Samaha's computer, where the recordings are, as a "precious treasure," and said they also expected to unveil more people involved in this case but that the release of the data was going to take time.
Ad-Diyar
Information Branch places Bouthaina Shaaban's name in Samaha's case.
The Information Branch placed the name of Bouthaina Shaaban in the case of Michel Samaha, accused of transporting explosives from Syria to Lebanon and the aim is now clear: the branch headed by Brig. Wisam al-Hasan seeks to distort President Assad's image by distorting the image of Michel Samaha who was Assad's adviser, as well as that of Bouthaina Shaaban, who is now a minister in the Syrian government and Assad's adviser.
It seems that the branch, which obtained the recordings via a secret room where it eavesdrops on phone calls, located 1,000 meters underground at the branch's headquarters, tapped the conversation between Shaaban and Samahaa and then analyzed it under their own anti-Syrian mentality. The analysis was also motivated by Hasan’s desire to showcase that he and the branch are credible.
He listened to the recordings and gave an analysis to the judiciary that says Shaaban had something to do with the transport of explosives.
The Information Branch reported three sentences Shaaban used in her phone conversation with Samaha and they are: "What about the stuff?," "When will you be traveling?," and "The chocolate box is ready."

Israel Suspects Hizbullah behind Drone Shot Down over Negev
Naharnet/07 October 2012/An unarmed drone shot down by Israel on Saturday after it entered the country's airspace from the Mediterranean Sea could have been sent by Hizbullah, an Israeli official has suggested.The Israeli army dispelled the notion that the drone might have been launched from the Gaza Strip, and was looking into the possibility that Hizbullah may have dispatched it, a military official told Israeli public radio. The Ynet news agency said without quoting sources that "Hizbullah launched this drone. It is even possible that Iranians activated its launch and guidance system, and it is apparently of Iranian manufacture." Ynet added: "The launching of such a craft over such a distance requires advanced means that Hizbullah does not possess up to now."
Asked about the reports by Agence France Presse, an army spokeswoman was unable to confirm or deny them.
In July 2006, the Israeli military shot down an unarmed drone operated by Hizbullah over the Jewish state's territorial waters.
And on April 12, 2005, another pilotless Hizbullah aircraft succeeded in overflying part of northern Israel without being downed.
"An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was identified penetrating Israeli airspace this morning, and was intercepted by the IAF at approximately 10:00 am (0800 GMT)," a military spokesman said on Saturday.
Soldiers were searching the area where the drone was downed, in open areas in the northern Negev, to locate and identify it, the spokesman added.
Army radio said that the aircraft was not carrying explosives. It quoted a military spokesman as saying troops responsible for monitoring "acted as they should have done after spotting the drone following its intrusion into Israeli airspace." Military spokeswoman Lieutenant Colonel Avital Leibovich later told reporters: "This drone was spotted over the Mediterranean in a sector near the Gaza Strip before entering Israeli airspace, where the air force followed it." "It was followed from the beginning until the time it was decided to intercept it and shoot it down for operational reasons over the Yatir Forest in the northern Negev, an uninhabited region."Leibovich called the operation a "success", but she did not say how the drone was shot down.
"Israeli soldiers are at the scene and retrieving pieces of debris," she added. *SourceAgence France Presse.

Party's arms not for internal destablization: Hezbollah
October 07, 2012 / The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah’s arms are directed against Israel and have no domestic targets, a senior Hezbollah figure said Saturday, rejecting a separation between Hezbollah as a party and as a resistance, in an apparent reference to recent comments from President Michel Sleiman. “We don't have arms for the resistance and arms used for other purposes, we don't have arms to face Israel and others for domestic purposes,” Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem said during a graduation ceremony at UNESCO palace in Beirut. “Yes, arms in Nabi Sheet are part of the arsenal to face Israel and arms in any depot or training camps are related to the resistance. We do not have arms aimed at destabilization ... we are not concerned with this issue. Not now, not tomorrow or in the future,” he added. Sleiman last week said Hezbollah and other groups should be stripped of weapons used at the domestic level but that the resistance’s arms used in the conflict with Israel should come under his defense strategy.
The president last week proposed a national defense strategy aimed at benefiting from Hezbollah’s arms. Under the proposal, the party would not hand its arms over to the Army, as demanded by the March 14 coalition, nor would there be a separate command for the resistance and the military, the defense strategy that Hezbollah backs.
March 14 has repeatedly accused Hezbollah of using its arsenal for domestic gains, referring to the 2008 street conflict in Beirut between pro-opposition and pro-government gunmen following the decision by the government, then headed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, to dismantle Hezbollah’s private telecommunications network. In his speech Saturday, Qassem rejected attempts to distinguish between Hezbollah as a political party and a resistance group, saying: “We don't have a military wing and a political one; we don't have Hezbollah on one hand and the resistance party on the other. “
“Every element of Hezbollah, from commanders to members as well as our various capabilities, are in the service of the resistance and we have nothing but the resistance as a priority,” he said.
He also touched on the divisive issue of formulating a new electoral law for the 2013 parliamentary polls and reiterated his party’s stance that proportional representation is the fairest system for the country.
“We are not embarrassed to say publicly that the proportional representation gives our allies advantage over others. But is it prohibited to have fair representation?” he asked.
The joint parliamentary committees are currently studying several electoral proposals including the Cabinet’s draft law which divides Lebanon into 13 medium-sized districts based on proportional representation and another presented by the March 14 coalition based on a winner-takes-all system with 50 small constituencies.
Referring to March 14’s draft law, Qassem said: “How is it that those asking for unfairness have the right to ask for a law that eliminates the other, [while] we do not have the right to ask for a fair law because it would bring about a majority that supports the resistance?”
He also restated his party’s position that Lebanon should be distanced from the conflict in Syria following recent reports that Hezbollah fighters have been killed in the country.
“We affirm our stance of not involving Lebanon in the Syrian crisis and we have always said that Lebanon needs to be distant from the platform against Syria,” he said, repeating the party’s accusation that the Future Movement is sheltering and financing gunmen fighting against the regime in Damascus.

Israel-Lebanon border in calmest period: UNIFIL
October 07, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The head of the U.N. Interim United Forces in Lebanon, Maj. Gen. Paolo Serra, said Sunday the Israel-Lebanon border is witnessing the calmest period in years due to close ties between the peacekeepers and the Army.
“Six years following the adoption of Resolution 1701, we are witnessing the calmest period southern Lebanon has seen in many years,” Serra said on the occasion of handing leadership of Italair from Lt. Col. Andrea Cercolani to Lt Col. Giuliano Innecco.
“Much of this unprecedented peaceful period can be attributed to the ever closer relationship between UNIFIL and the Lebanese armed forces, and the kind support of the Lebanese people, for which I am deeply grateful,” he added.
UNIFIL’s peacekeeping presence was beefed up in the wake of the 2006 conflict between Lebanon and Israel. The 11,260-strong international force is mandated with maintaining a cessation of hostilities, as well as monitoring the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.
During the ceremony, Serra also said that UNIFIL remains determined to assist both Israel and Lebanon “to maintain and solidify the cessation of hostilities and to promote full respect for and implementation of Resolution 1701.“To this end, we will continue to work closely with the Lebanese armed forces, the Lebanese authorities and our United Nations partners to fulfill our mandated tasks,” added Serra who took over the UNIFIL helm in January of 2012. He also spoke of Italair and praised its achievements since its establishment in 1979, making it UNIFIL’s oldest unit.
“It is comprised of Italian air force, army and navy crews, working in perfect synergy to operate the four Augusta Bell 212 helicopters. During its more than 33 years of service, Italair completed more than 36,000 flight hours, including 400 performed by the outgoing crew – a remarkable accomplishment,” Serra said.

Security Sources Say Samaha PC a 'Valuable Treasure', Qaderi Warns of Plan to Claim Explosives were Targeted at Israel
إby Naharnet/ 07 October 2012/Former minister Michel Samaha's personal computer represents a “valuable treasure” for the security agencies because it will reveal further details about his plot, a media report said on Sunday, as Mustaqbal bloc MP Ziad al-Qaderi warned of attempts to wrap up the case by claiming that the seized explosives were targeted at resisting Israel.
Lebanese security agencies unveiled the involvement of Syrian President Bashar Assad's adviser Buthaina Shaaban in the case “given the fact that Samaha, who owned three cellphones, used to regularly record all his phone conversations throughout the period of three years, before copying them to the computer that was seized on the day his house was raided by Intelligence Bureau agents,” security sources told al-Mustaqbal newspaper in remarks published Sunday. “The Bureau has asked the relevant judicial authorities to authorize it to transcribe the recordings found on this computer,” the sources added.
Military Tribunal Judge Saqr Saqr referred to Military Examining Magistrate Riyad Abu Ghida on Saturday the file on the telephone call that allegedly took place between Samaha and Shaaban, state-run National News Agency reported. “Transcribing the recordings will take some time,” the sources told al-Mustaqbal, noting that “once enough evidence emerged to confirm the presence of (Maj. Gen. Jamil) Sayyed in Samaha's car, the file was referred to the judiciary, and the same thing happened after transcribing some of the phone conversations between Samaha and Shaaban, as she turned out to be aware of his mission – the smuggling of the explosives,” the sources added.
“The details related to Buthaina Shaaban were discovered 10 days ago and referred to the judiciary which only acted yesterday,” the sources revealed.
Meanwhile, Kuwaiti newspaper al-Anbaa revealed that “after reviewing the recordings made by Samaha's personal cellphones and the tapes found in his car, it was noticed that he made conversations with a woman he referred to as 'My Lady,' but when asked back then whether the lady on the other side of the phone was Dr. Buthaina Shaaban, he denied that.”
“But upon making a comparison between Buthaina's voice during media interviews and the voice recorded on ex-minister Samaha's tapes, IT experts found out that it was actually her voice and that Samaha talked to her before and after receiving the explosives, which suggests that the handing over process was the focal point of their conversation,” al-Anbaa added.
Separately, MP Ziad al-Qaderi told An Nahar newspaper in remarks published Sunday that “there is a scenario to distort the facts and claim that the explosives transported by Michel Samaha were targeted at resisting Israel.”Qaderi warned of a “scenario being prepared by the Syrian regime and its allies to wrap up the case, as we have received information that there are political intentions to undermine the judicial and legal course of the case, which have started to take aim at the Intelligence Bureau, in a bid to repeat the scenario of retired Brig. Gen. Fayez Karam's case.”

Leaked Document: Hizbullah Intelligence Helped Syrians Assassinate Gebran Tueni
Naharnet /07 October 2012/..A series of leaked Syrian documents have revealed that Hizbullah was involved in the December 12, 2005 assassination of prominent journalist and MP Gebran Tueni, chairman of the board of directors of An Nahar newspaper, Al-Arabiya television reported on Saturday. “With the help of members of the intelligence department of Lebanon's Hizbullah, Mission 213, which was assigned to them on December 10, has been successfully accomplished with excellent results,” a document dated December 12, 2005 says. The document was sent by head of the operations department in the Syrian intelligence, Hasan Abdul Rahman, to then chief of national security department Assef Shawkat, according to Al-Arabiya. “In concurrence with Assef Shawkat's letter on accomplishing the mission and on the same day the letter was sent to the Syrian presidential palace, a booby-trapped car was awaiting Lebanese lawmaker Gebran Tueni to end his life while on his way to work, in an assassination operation described as mysterious back then,” Al-Arabiya added. A leaked U.S. Embassy cable dated December 19, 2005 said Syria was likely behind Tueni's assassination in 2005, which was aimed at silencing his caustic remarks against the regime of President Bashar Assad.The WikiLeaks cable, which was published exclusively in al-Jumhouriya newspaper, added that the assassination was also a message to the Lebanese opposition that “no one can protect them.”

President Michel Suleiman : Lebanon Won't Be Mailbox, Place to Protect Any Regime Anymore
Naharnet /07 October 2012/President Michel Suleiman has stressed that Lebanon will not be a “mailbox” anymore or “a place to protect any regime or state.”
“Lebanon paid dearly for its freedom and democracy and from now on it will not allow anyone to turn it into a launchpad for sending messages to anyone or into a place to protect any regime or state other than Lebanon's,” Suleiman reassured during a meeting with the Lebanese community in Uruguay.
The president called on Lebanese expats not to fear for Lebanon, “as the transformations in the Arab region are in its interest, because it was not able to practice its democracy properly amid the presence of regimes that don't allow power rotation.”
“Some political alliances and groups in Lebanon built their policies according to their links with the neighboring countries because they were aware of the absence of power rotation, that's why Lebanon became an arena for conflict among the neighboring Arab countries, but that has changed today, as politics in Lebanon has become purely Lebanese,” Suleiman added.
“We defeated Israel and liberated the land,” the president said, noting that “the army eradicated the terrorist organizations and paid a hefty price.”
Suleiman also stressed that the 2013 parliamentary elections will happen on time and with the participation of expatriates.